Can’t beat a Friday night with Simplicius and scotch. What happened to Avdeevka after 2015? It is so close to Donetsk on the map, so it is baffling that it has been in Ukrainian hands for this long.
Mitch the glitch is a symbol of the crumbling gerentocracy. Most Americans are sick of the uniparty neocon regime that launders taxpayer money to enrich itself. The era of magical thinking unipolaritt is ending. They are running out of credibility, ammo, money, and men.
Tex seemed to hint that Adveevka wasn’t allowed to be touched after Minsk. But, even with the Minsk agreements, I certainly agree that it seems a bit strange to watch your enemy both harden their defensive positions as well as bomb Donetsk weekly if not daily while you sit and watch. If this was part of a master plan, someone has the patience of a saint.
During that time Ukraine was being rearmed and is now much stronger than it was in the first months of the SMO in terms of how easy/difficult it is to advance (compare April-June 2022, before Russia completely stalled, to Bakhmut, and then to what we have now), and now has long-range precision strike capabilities it did not have back then, and yet nothing was done to prevent it.
And Mairupol was outright surrendered without a fight on orders from the Kremlin back in the beginning of the war. Which is why it ended up destroyed eventually.
So is it any wonder Avdeevka was allowed to be fortified?
Also, that coke plant is owned by Rinat Akhmetov, something to remember. As was
most key industry in Mariupol when and after it was surrendered.
Nazis/CIA and Zionists are two wings of the same genocidal bird. Genocide, culling your own populations, genetic engineering, human experiments, Mk-Ultra, mass mind kontrol, and now transhumanism. They have always been natural allies, just covertly.
Possibly. I have been paying attention to the area for over 40 years though and come from a quite informed outlook. There’s almost nothing that’s black and white in the long term of the conflict. However somethings are always wrong. Rape, torture and the defense of those. Let’s not fool ourselves into believing the oppressor/oppressed narrative. It’s never so simplistic.
>Let’s not fool ourselves into believing the oppressor/oppressed narrative. It’s never so simplistic.
Well no one is actually saying 'objecting to and taking action against another doing harm is merely simplistic'. Instead Every action begets a reaction.
I'm imagine you and Goyden Peterstein would get on famously.
Taking into account how wildly unpopular most western politicians and their policies are with their respective publics, "democracy" as it is practiced is basically a cover for rulers to do what they want. The technical term for this is a "beard".
After all, your elected representatives approved this. If you don't like it, you can vote for othet carefully vetted corporate imperialist muppet, so until then, shut up and fall in line!
Meanwhile, I note that the new US House Speaker is talking about a "new axis of evil" and has promptly reversed earlier rhetoric about ending funding to the regime in Kiev.
Avdiivka is a natural fortress, which has also been heavily fortified for nearly a decade of conflict. It's a tough nut to crack, so Russia wanted to wear down the AFU first, and secure the various fronts before making a decisive move. There's been fighting around there throughout the SMO, in fact some of the "destroyed armor" from recent footage has been there for months. However, it would not have made sense to divide their forces for a determined offensive there during the early phase, or during the Battle of Bakhmut, or during the counter-offensive in Zaporozhia. The present, ie Fall 2023, really is the earliest reasonable time-frame they could've began the Battle of Avdiivka, so that's why it happened this way. The upcoming Fall of Avdeevka will be a significant event, not least because the "innocent Ukrainian victims" have been shelling civilians in Donetsk from there.
Yeah, and from what i understand it was mostly just DPR and LPR troops doing the fighting in that surrounding area, post 2014. In respect to the 'wearing down of AFU across other Fronts, this would seem to make sense, and only relatively recently would it appear that Russian MOD has finally committed RF Troops and resources in large numbers.
Hopefully Ukraine's loss of Avdeevka will prevent Kiev's targeted slaughter of innocent civilians in Donetsk with artillery fire, or at least make it more difficult.
The AFU still controls half of Marinka whence they can strike Donetsk, but to stop the bombing yes capturing Avdeevka in a months-long bloody campaign is a start
I found Filipov's comments about fighting 'fellow Ukrainians' brutally frank. A lot of front line reports dwell on the sad task of fighting 'their own people' - a war brother against brother, etc. Filipov is having none of it. They had the choice since 2014 to object or flee and instead chose to just keep their heads down, run their little farms and hope the whole thing would blow over. So Dimitry and those like him have no qualms about destroying them now that putsch has come to shove.,
It will be interesting to see how the Ukraine War "jobs program" flies in the U.S. The big plan likely will be hamstrung over the lack of a skilled workforce, the same workforce neutered by the MIC, now Jonesin for weapons.
I'm sure that every Ukrainian was aware of the endless attacks on Donbass civilians, since the Nazis bragged about them. But we have to remember that Ukraine is the most corrupt nation in Europe, and possibly the world. The people there have a different mindset called "Look the other way."
It's worth remembering that Filipov does not live in a country that will send activists and partisans to kill you and then look the other way when it's time to investigate; the <i>'Mirotvorets'</i> website publishing the name, address and other location data of those assessed to be 'collaborators' was started by a Ukrainian government minister. Ukrainians who might have wanted to speak up or express the opinion that the government's behavior was wrong ran a real risk of being murdered with no accountability whatsoever, and their surviving family members hounded by the super-patriot community. Would you be labeled a Russian collaborator for speaking out against Ukrainian government policies? Who wants to find out?
Is there a link for the US production of 40,000/month? The last I saw it was still at 28,000 and the 90,000/month target had been pushed from 2025 to almost 2028. Not that it matters greatly. 90k/month is the minimum to make a real difference, and that would require building additional factories.
I think the breaking point is getting closer and the time between now and reaching it is going to start accelerating. Adveeka will be a huge loss for Kiev. It is strategic but it’s hugely important for the psychology of both sides. It won’t make Donetsk safe, but will make it safer. And a significant loss in a significant fortified line with winter coming and following the complete failure of Ukraine’s offensive will have second order effects. I don’t see Kiev lasting another year.
Your second paragraph sez it all. A cascading effect. Bandera defensive lines are attenuated and I still haven't figured out what the purpose of the Kherson crossings and continuing to attack around Rabotino are supposed to accomplish. They certainly aren't spoiler attacks. They do assist the RU.
They’re just “doing something”. Kiev has picked that up from its western sponsors. There doesn’t have to be a real plan nor does the action need to fit into a bigger strategic goal, you just have to look busy. It’s better if looking busy can be overstated in the media.
The same people who were part of the Maiden coup during the Obama administration are now part of the Biden administration. What will it take to stop this evil?
Biden had the Ukraine brief as VP, so these people worked closely with him then. He elevated them when he became president. Most likely he ran for president and had the field cleared for him because he was the only one who would reliably kick this off.
The neocons are deeply seated in the US. Nuland has had political appointments in every administration since the second Clinton term except the trump admin.
Unfortunately, the collapse may be the only way the American people themselves can get rid of the demonic deep state, since voting is full of fraud and Congress cares more about themselves than us.
If they are good at nothing else, neocons are very good at bureaucratic infighting.
Notice how they spin defeats into calls to do more, or at most retreat to their favorite think tanks to emerge as soon as the political calculus changes.
I believe Adolf Hitler once said that the only forces capable of truly changing the World are the catholic church, communism and freemasonry. Unless something comes along to fully supersede these spiritual conspiracies then nothing will stop the evil from eternally reoccurring.
The hate of Ukrainians is going to last a long time. It is just so sad! Once you start an action, as Hannah Arendt wrote, it always involves others and it is impossible to control! Thank you for your reporting.
Yes, *some* were, I agree. I was thinking more about those who were not ideologically committed; rather, as Simplicius cites the writer turned a soldier and then commentator notes, many just simply wanted to ignore what was going on around them, until they were drafted into this slaughter. We all tend to ignore situation around us and prefer convenience (to use that prevalent explanation for everything, these days) and do exactly that very same thing. Where is the point where we can suddenly realise that all is not how we believed and when this turns into a hate? Is it only war?
Nah. Popper level of hate in ex-Yu countries lasted no more than 10 years after the wars ended. Same will happen in Ukraine. Similar people, similar temperament, similar ideologies underlining it all. Outcome will be similar.
It is still alive in certain percentage of population, but I would say that average ppl (about 90%) are long over it. And ones that still do hate are not brave enough to do much more than smash a window of a car with "wrong" license plates here and there.
What Russia can do to shorten this time-frame even more is to invest heavily in the newly appropriated regions. People forget how to hate quickly once they start living much better than before. Just look at Grozny.
There can be a deal where the 300 billions blocked by the west is unblocked on condition it is used solely to rebuild Ukraine. So even the money will be there.
Unfortunately, the history will linger, and it will be impossible to get rid of it for the next 100 years. It will kindle in the background, ready to be used by foreign power again at time of Russian weakens.
Russia is at present, and has been for decades including all through The Glorious Maidan and the SMO, Ukraine's single biggest foreign investor by a wide margin, mostly via Cyprus as Special Purpose Entities (SPE's). But you're correct.
"In short, the U.S. economy has been parasitized by Wall Street, and it’s nearly impossible to be competitive or get anything done anymore between the vast financializations and endless capitalizations of everything and the impenetrable bureaucracies that have sprouted up as guardians of this esoteric science."
And therein lies the heart of the matter...war profits are substantial in low conflict zones but the West can no longer arm a peer to peer war.
The US makes high-tech that doesn't work very well and costs ten million dollars per. Like the nearly useless Patriot missile, or hanger-queen F-35. Meanwhile, the Russians grind out low-tech that works Very well, by the thousands, at low cost.
The writer-turned-soldier, Vozhak Z, could have been describing any of us in the west. It was a rather poignant observation about what is driving the hatred of the rank & file enemy. I dare say the anger of the west, when war comes upon us will be quite similar.
yeah, I thought maybe the Palestinian building were badly built.....but I'd like to know cause the Israeli capacity for damage looks savage. Ca'nt wait for the thousands of suicide bombers to come out of the Gaza ground like ants!!!!! BOOM BABY BOOM!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1tj2zJ2Wvg
Israel is also bunker-busting tunnels beneath Gaza. Several videos of a buster dropping and then secondary explosions coming out of the ground across a neighborhood.
that hospital-if Hamas-or IJ- has a rocket that can do that kinda thing ( and MSM said it was just a fragment!!) then Israel is in some kinda trouble-which I like :)
The buildings that you see collapsing are made of cement panels , that are being held together with steel rebar . The steel will melt at 980 Celsius which is about 1796 Fahrenheit . Upon the impact of high explosives the connections simply melt away , plus the kinetic impact causing the building to drop like a house of cards .
SO i GUES WHAT YOUR SAYING IS WITHOUT AD CONCERNS FORM RUSSIA UKRAINE WOULD LOOK LIKE GAZA. but some of those Israeli bombings show the building GOING DOWN floor on floor , one on top the other. Have'nt seen any Ukie war porn similiar. Appricate if you'd post a link if you got any pancake action-love a good snuff film.
No, because Russia has not deliberately targeted civilians. They could have razed portions of Kiev or Odessa by now if they wanted to, regardless of AD
Flattening cities is not their thing, different school. Urban warfare notwithstanding but those were deserted
Not really. Bombing hospitals and the like sends folk crazy. Israel is gonna get what it deserves. A billion Muslims are getting wound up minute by minute, Tik Tok by Tik Tok. No other other way. Like the Ukie Nazis the Israelis just won't share-expcept in the pain. So let her rip. Nothing high tech, just a guy or gal with vest full of nails and c4 and a Tel Aviv bus.....and a camera-Billy has have his amusements :)
Gaza coastal cities are sand so weak foundations, and the buildings aren't built as strong as Soviet apartment blocks.
And as they have been under a blockade for almost ever we can be fairly certain Gaza buildings will be weaker due to lack of rebar, low quality concrete, etc.
That makes a lot sense. Now the Israelis are saying they are going to bomb the main hospital! Zero F's given. A blood bath for Israel is comming. Tick .Tick. BOOM!
yep, the ashkeNAZis have gone too far this time. Their Karma will be epic. Stock up on popcorn and watch these filthy scum burn under barrages of hypersonics!
Whatever. They are built under hospitals, mosques, apartment buildings, etc., where munitions are stored. That’s the point. Presumably Hamas knew that if their munitions were blown up, civilians would be killed. Sounds a bit like the Azov/Ukrainians that we’ve been tracking….strange, however, that when Hamas does this, it’s ok. When Ukrainians do it, it’s criminal.
Because for the most part Russia hasn’t been striking buildings like that. The other issue is that most Ukrainian infrastructure was built by the Soviets who over built and as the saying goes “they just don’t build them like they used to”. Many buildings in Gaza are built as cheaply as possible because that’s the only option. There’s not as much rebar as there should be, the concrete may have just enough cement and not be cured well enough, etc.
It is by design , that the Russians don't destroy residential areas , because they would have to rebuild them after the demilitarization is completed . It is by design that more or less trying to confine the SMO . on one front line , and lessen the destruction . It is by design that the pancake like destruction taking place in Gaza , because they will have to be rebuild . Except the rebuilding will be in the different style of houses . Who will live in those newly designed houses ? Your guess is as good as mine.
Maybe because the tunnels under the Palestinian buildings are filled with munitions, despite civilians living in those buildings…..There is a reason why Israel wants Palestinians to move south. The entirety of Gaza is built on munitions storage areas. Like this…bomb one bunker and others explode due to the pressure: https://videopress.com/v/m68OCG6K
I get your point, I've only managed to see a couple of those gopher holes go up in vids. Given absolute carnage Israel is wreaking on Gaza I'da expected a LOT MORE BOOM from those storages. My guess -just a guess-those are the older shallow ones. I'd expect Hamas to have gotten some expert military engineering advice from some place ( Iran? ) and planned out a whole tunnel warfare program. There is a some simple but effective equipment small time operators use in rinky dink ming operations-see youtube. I'd EXPECT Hamas are ALL over THAT. Happy Hanukkah !!!!! P.S I hear a rumour there gonna be a BIG special on Kosher meat comming up real soon!
I suspect that, similar to the Russian idea, Israel does not want to harm civilians. They’ve been dropping flyers into Gaza, telling people to move south. Hamas is telling people to stay.
No, the reason they want North Gaza cleared is because it's been Israeli policy for 75 years, removing non Jews from Palestine. How do you know where weapons are stored? And if Mossad didn't know Hamas were going to attack Israel, how would they know where weapons are stored. The video you linked to proves nothing.
They want to flatten Gaza so that it's uninhabitable and kill as many people as they can in the process.
What mumbo jumbo. Gaza was part of Egypt until 1967. Sadly, Egypt doesn’t want it back. None of the Arab states want militant Palestinians in their midst.
Do you have any idea how sturdy soviet buildings are. You need to research the likes of their bridges & other big places. Everything is built with reenforce concrete, that's reenforce again. On the other side of it. The buildings in Gaza are cheaply built with no building regulations at all. It's pretty straight forward really. You hit reenforce concrete it hardly damages the structure. You hit a Sandcastle lightly , it falls down.
I am sure Russia was probing hard against the Bandera lines around Avdiivka at first. It took about 48 hours to get the cauldron in place and to get a small small wedge stuck into the southern part of the town. As best as I could tell the Bandera army really couldn't get any effective counter-attacks moving before the RU got dug in. No doubt cuz the RU spent nearly 20 months destroying Bandera forces while conserving and building it's own.
I can't see the Bandera army trying to hold Avdiivka the way it did at Artymovsk. There ain't going to be a 4th NATO army coming.
The points covered as to why, despite better fortification of Avdeevka relative to Bahkmut, are quite interesting. How ffs, however, did they after so much work for 9 years fail to build better MSR infrastructure.
Also, though Simplicius has noted another factor before that's making Russia's work easier, namely the decreasing quality of the Uke army, he didn't touch on that this round at least not specifically relative to the Avdeebka battle. Personally, I think that's another major contribution to the AFU's dismal defense of such a strategic location.
The EU and NATO sent quite a bit of cash to the Ukraine for infrastructure projects. Many of those infrastructure projects can be found in London, Miami, Cyprus and other popular bolt holes.
Lack of infrastructure is no doubt a contributing factor. NATO's Military Dependency of Ukraine can't maintain the #1 spot as Most Corrupt European Nation if it acted otherwise.
To paraphrase Omar Bradley; "Amateurs talk strategy, pros talk logistics."
No way. The WEF's beta test for global fascism would never "color outside the lines", take kickbacks on infrastructure funding schemes that were never completed or be bribed. Just not possible the most noble among us are venal, petty, amoral narcissists and sociopaths.
Thanks Simplicius. Excellent as always. And as a consequence of the Israel Hamas Gaza stuff, there's no front page "reporting" (lol) on Ukraine in the "democratic and free" American media.
Keiv has quite the obsession with unicorn weapons systems. Think I would have to agree that the fab glide bombs and lancets are really the big game changers in the war. Gotta wonder if that is really the main difference between Bakhmut and Avdeevka, that and Russia's almost complete air dominance. Probably why they haven't been launching missile attacks recently except for the occasional hard target. Much cheaper to let equipment and reserves amass in the near rear and bomb it there before it can be brought to action. Ukraine is a dead duck without a functioning airforce/air defense.
The post by the Russian soldier "Leader" really struck me when he talks about the complicity of the forcibly mobilized, and his lack of sorrow for them. Because it could be a fate that future western mobilized soldiers may eventually find themselves in if things don't change. If you mind your business, ignore atrocities and don't choose a side, a side may eventually be chosen for you. And it might not be the side you'd prefer to be on.
I wonder how difficult it would be for Russia to assimilate new territories after so much bloodshed. As pro Russian as people might have been all their lives, I think Kiev regime would have made sure to send the ethnic Russians to meat grinder. Would their families ever be able to live in Novorossiya as loyal citizens?
Would you sometime explain the logic of theater of resolutions being presented (and vetoed) in UN? Let's say all agree on a certain resolution ultimately in near future, with civilians getting slaughtered nonstop till then, what would it achieve? Has Israel ever upheld a single UN resolution or international law or rules of human rights or anything at all? The only possible practical solution of most conflicts seems to be financial collapse of US. Why do Arab countries, and others, not dare to sanction or boycott trade with Israel? Nobody is taking any practical step from what I can see, everybody is busy paying lip service. As for Hamas, they could have build a few bunkers for civilians too perhaps?
- assimilate new territories. they already doing it by investing very heavily into them. Remember Mariupol occupied by Ukraine since 2014 and then completely levelled in 2022? It is fully rebuilt now. Compare to that our New Orleans who STILL have not rebuilt from Katrina in 2005 (!!!) is an example
- people finding peace, not the first time (and likely not the last). Civil war 100 years ago, 4+ million dead.
- "Has Israel ever upheld a single UN resolution or international law or rules of human rights or anything at all" every one of them, time after time after time. Israel is fighting with kid gloves, all hands tied behind its back. 'Arab world' is using Gaza people same way 'West' is using Ukrainians , as cannon fodder, they lie continuously about them, do not let them leave (Egypt does not want them, neither does Syria where Hamas is fighting on the side of Turkey/USA against Syrian government shooting as Hesbollah/Iranians/Russians).
- As for Hamas, they could have build a few bunkers for civilians too perhaps? It is ISIS/Muslim Brotherhood, as evil as it comes. why would it do it? HAMAS took power by killing tens of thousands of Palestinians who were for Palestinian Authority (Fatah) in street battles, bankrolled by evil sheilks (and US 'allies') in Qatar, and trained by another 'NATO Ally' Turkey. They have less than zero concern for civilians as to them end justifies the means. They kill Shia Muslims in Syria, kill Sunnis in Egypt , what do you expect ?
HAMAS will continue to blow up child centers, mosques, and kill civilians (their own) at mass to generate the picture/message, exactly the same Kiev regime kills civs in Ukraine (including their own) and blame Russia. Just as Europe perfectly knowing who did it has to say 'Putin/Russia is at fault', exactly the same Muslim world would always lie and say 'Israel is responsible' for anything Hamas would kill. same lies, just from different side.
I bet that Hamas has dug lots of air raid shelters for the public that elected them democratically, making the Hamas party the only legitimately-elected body in the middle east.
I don't agree with your assessment about either Hamas or Israel. Israel has been in open violation of UN resolutions, has a horrible record in human rights and all this is recorded in UN, which is most certainly a tool of US. Hamas was funded by Israel when it appeared on scene and some of its leaders were bought off by Israel just like most Arab leaders. Tge current Hamas is not the same and it's not Hamas alone fighting but several other resistance groups in Gaza are involved. I can suggest you a few western and jewish sources to know the truth about Israel if you're interested. You can look for Alistair Crooke, Col. Larry (I think) Wilkinson, Ilan Pappe, Norman Finklestein, Gideon Levy etc. And Grayzone, Abby Martin, Eva Bartlett have extensively covered Gaza, Westbank etc.
Superb update. Great to read the history of Debaltsevo as well. Also, defeating the AFU in Avdeevka would be a powerful morale blow
I am keeping an eye on various economic and industrial indicators. Russia running their central bank interest rates at 15% is very concerning, it essentially makes any kind of credit-based economic activity unviable. It is also an indicator of strong pressure on capital outflows. Meanwhile, on the western side, as the smoke clears, the US posts 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 (where the hell is it coming from? I literally hear nothing but rough news from all my industry contacts) while the EU more or less stagnates or recedes.
Russia & China are accelerating their trade and economic ties, but they need to do more
The higher interest rates that mean larger mortgage, credit card and loan payments all contribute to GDP. Inflation is goosing GDP numbers too.
High interest rates are a drag on some economic activity but they’re worse in systems dependent on lots of credit. Russia also has all sorts of preferential rates for various things like mortgages and industrial development (along with the state directly funding certain activities). I’m not saying that the 15% is a nothingburger buts not at all the same as 15% interest rates in the US.
What is Russia's running inflation rate? After nearly doubling military spending I imagine that pumped inflation.
Our (US) GDP growth is due to insane Big Gubmint spending. Commercial real estate rents are falling as vacancies rise. Residential real estate sales are slowing and it is now cheaper to rent than own in large markets. Credit, auto and consumer loan defaults are rising fast, the yield curve is warped. The nature of Federal Reserve banking means every bank is required to have the same exposure to the same liability, US treasuries.
Automation, or just wrap up the SMO sooner than later so decent Germans can begin immigrating to Russia again, bringing their Teutonic expertise and work ethic with them.
Can’t beat a Friday night with Simplicius and scotch. What happened to Avdeevka after 2015? It is so close to Donetsk on the map, so it is baffling that it has been in Ukrainian hands for this long.
Mitch the glitch is a symbol of the crumbling gerentocracy. Most Americans are sick of the uniparty neocon regime that launders taxpayer money to enrich itself. The era of magical thinking unipolaritt is ending. They are running out of credibility, ammo, money, and men.
Tex seemed to hint that Adveevka wasn’t allowed to be touched after Minsk. But, even with the Minsk agreements, I certainly agree that it seems a bit strange to watch your enemy both harden their defensive positions as well as bomb Donetsk weekly if not daily while you sit and watch. If this was part of a master plan, someone has the patience of a saint.
Didn't you watch the last 18 months?
During that time Ukraine was being rearmed and is now much stronger than it was in the first months of the SMO in terms of how easy/difficult it is to advance (compare April-June 2022, before Russia completely stalled, to Bakhmut, and then to what we have now), and now has long-range precision strike capabilities it did not have back then, and yet nothing was done to prevent it.
And Mairupol was outright surrendered without a fight on orders from the Kremlin back in the beginning of the war. Which is why it ended up destroyed eventually.
So is it any wonder Avdeevka was allowed to be fortified?
Also, that coke plant is owned by Rinat Akhmetov, something to remember. As was
most key industry in Mariupol when and after it was surrendered.
Lavrov, pesko are British agents while Putin is a weakling co fused no leader.
I really respect his insights into the Ukraine conflict, however his take on Hamas/Israel just strikes me as all dogma and no objectivity.
Is he a zionist??
Nazis/CIA and Zionists are two wings of the same genocidal bird. Genocide, culling your own populations, genetic engineering, human experiments, Mk-Ultra, mass mind kontrol, and now transhumanism. They have always been natural allies, just covertly.
It must be comforting to see the world in such a Manichaean simplicity.
Israel and CIA did 911. This is a litmus test that you had 22 years to complete. You failed and do not deserve sovereignty.
Ok dude. Enjoy your 🤡🌎 simpleton.
I am not laughing. I divorced the West in 2007. Deadly searious. May you and your goy bloodline die for Israel.
Israel may have thought that their big 911 worked, let Hamas in and replay the 911 trick again.
Gaza is a heavily garded concentratiekamp, but there was no IDF guy awake?
Mustache man would be proud of his zio friends.
Indeed one big family hiding among "the free secret builders".
That conclusion might say more about your own position than Simplicius's.
Possibly. I have been paying attention to the area for over 40 years though and come from a quite informed outlook. There’s almost nothing that’s black and white in the long term of the conflict. However somethings are always wrong. Rape, torture and the defense of those. Let’s not fool ourselves into believing the oppressor/oppressed narrative. It’s never so simplistic.
>Let’s not fool ourselves into believing the oppressor/oppressed narrative. It’s never so simplistic.
Well no one is actually saying 'objecting to and taking action against another doing harm is merely simplistic'. Instead Every action begets a reaction.
I'm imagine you and Goyden Peterstein would get on famously.
Taking into account how wildly unpopular most western politicians and their policies are with their respective publics, "democracy" as it is practiced is basically a cover for rulers to do what they want. The technical term for this is a "beard".
After all, your elected representatives approved this. If you don't like it, you can vote for othet carefully vetted corporate imperialist muppet, so until then, shut up and fall in line!
Meanwhile, I note that the new US House Speaker is talking about a "new axis of evil" and has promptly reversed earlier rhetoric about ending funding to the regime in Kiev.
In other words, the fix is in.
He was Melonified very easily.
But at least now there's absolutely no doubt about the Republican party entering the same self-eating rot as the Demoncratic one.
I am sure that was part of the deal.
And I harbor no illusions about Team R.
https://t.me/remylind21/10193
PLEASE open link Simplicus
Avdiivka is a natural fortress, which has also been heavily fortified for nearly a decade of conflict. It's a tough nut to crack, so Russia wanted to wear down the AFU first, and secure the various fronts before making a decisive move. There's been fighting around there throughout the SMO, in fact some of the "destroyed armor" from recent footage has been there for months. However, it would not have made sense to divide their forces for a determined offensive there during the early phase, or during the Battle of Bakhmut, or during the counter-offensive in Zaporozhia. The present, ie Fall 2023, really is the earliest reasonable time-frame they could've began the Battle of Avdiivka, so that's why it happened this way. The upcoming Fall of Avdeevka will be a significant event, not least because the "innocent Ukrainian victims" have been shelling civilians in Donetsk from there.
Yeah, and from what i understand it was mostly just DPR and LPR troops doing the fighting in that surrounding area, post 2014. In respect to the 'wearing down of AFU across other Fronts, this would seem to make sense, and only relatively recently would it appear that Russian MOD has finally committed RF Troops and resources in large numbers.
Hopefully Ukraine's loss of Avdeevka will prevent Kiev's targeted slaughter of innocent civilians in Donetsk with artillery fire, or at least make it more difficult.
The AFU still controls half of Marinka whence they can strike Donetsk, but to stop the bombing yes capturing Avdeevka in a months-long bloody campaign is a start
This point makes Avdeevka particularly personal, I think.
I found Filipov's comments about fighting 'fellow Ukrainians' brutally frank. A lot of front line reports dwell on the sad task of fighting 'their own people' - a war brother against brother, etc. Filipov is having none of it. They had the choice since 2014 to object or flee and instead chose to just keep their heads down, run their little farms and hope the whole thing would blow over. So Dimitry and those like him have no qualms about destroying them now that putsch has come to shove.,
That’s how the majority of population in the modern societies anywhere behave. 😢
It will be interesting to see how the Ukraine War "jobs program" flies in the U.S. The big plan likely will be hamstrung over the lack of a skilled workforce, the same workforce neutered by the MIC, now Jonesin for weapons.
Chuckle, chuckle you maggots.
I'm sure that every Ukrainian was aware of the endless attacks on Donbass civilians, since the Nazis bragged about them. But we have to remember that Ukraine is the most corrupt nation in Europe, and possibly the world. The people there have a different mindset called "Look the other way."
It's worth remembering that Filipov does not live in a country that will send activists and partisans to kill you and then look the other way when it's time to investigate; the <i>'Mirotvorets'</i> website publishing the name, address and other location data of those assessed to be 'collaborators' was started by a Ukrainian government minister. Ukrainians who might have wanted to speak up or express the opinion that the government's behavior was wrong ran a real risk of being murdered with no accountability whatsoever, and their surviving family members hounded by the super-patriot community. Would you be labeled a Russian collaborator for speaking out against Ukrainian government policies? Who wants to find out?
It appears akin to a civil war, where passions often become deeper and darker as the fighting goes on. Early empathy gets replaced by hatred.
Is there a link for the US production of 40,000/month? The last I saw it was still at 28,000 and the 90,000/month target had been pushed from 2025 to almost 2028. Not that it matters greatly. 90k/month is the minimum to make a real difference, and that would require building additional factories.
I think the breaking point is getting closer and the time between now and reaching it is going to start accelerating. Adveeka will be a huge loss for Kiev. It is strategic but it’s hugely important for the psychology of both sides. It won’t make Donetsk safe, but will make it safer. And a significant loss in a significant fortified line with winter coming and following the complete failure of Ukraine’s offensive will have second order effects. I don’t see Kiev lasting another year.
Apologies for the geographical typo.
Your second paragraph sez it all. A cascading effect. Bandera defensive lines are attenuated and I still haven't figured out what the purpose of the Kherson crossings and continuing to attack around Rabotino are supposed to accomplish. They certainly aren't spoiler attacks. They do assist the RU.
They’re just “doing something”. Kiev has picked that up from its western sponsors. There doesn’t have to be a real plan nor does the action need to fit into a bigger strategic goal, you just have to look busy. It’s better if looking busy can be overstated in the media.
Hahaha...
Too early to make me laugh.
NATO's Military Dependency of Ukraine is defeating the Russians where it really matters, on social media.
The same people who were part of the Maiden coup during the Obama administration are now part of the Biden administration. What will it take to stop this evil?
Presidents come and go. Neocons just stick around like some horrible goo.
Biden had the Ukraine brief as VP, so these people worked closely with him then. He elevated them when he became president. Most likely he ran for president and had the field cleared for him because he was the only one who would reliably kick this off.
The neocons are deeply seated in the US. Nuland has had political appointments in every administration since the second Clinton term except the trump admin.
The collapse and fragmentation of the American entity, which cannot come soon enough. The demon has troubled the world for long enough.
Unfortunately, the collapse may be the only way the American people themselves can get rid of the demonic deep state, since voting is full of fraud and Congress cares more about themselves than us.
Indeed. Voting won't get us out of this mess.
If they are good at nothing else, neocons are very good at bureaucratic infighting.
Notice how they spin defeats into calls to do more, or at most retreat to their favorite think tanks to emerge as soon as the political calculus changes.
I believe Adolf Hitler once said that the only forces capable of truly changing the World are the catholic church, communism and freemasonry. Unless something comes along to fully supersede these spiritual conspiracies then nothing will stop the evil from eternally reoccurring.
The hate of Ukrainians is going to last a long time. It is just so sad! Once you start an action, as Hannah Arendt wrote, it always involves others and it is impossible to control! Thank you for your reporting.
The Ukrainians were indoctrinated with race hatred by their Azov faction, which happened long before the SMO.
Yes, *some* were, I agree. I was thinking more about those who were not ideologically committed; rather, as Simplicius cites the writer turned a soldier and then commentator notes, many just simply wanted to ignore what was going on around them, until they were drafted into this slaughter. We all tend to ignore situation around us and prefer convenience (to use that prevalent explanation for everything, these days) and do exactly that very same thing. Where is the point where we can suddenly realise that all is not how we believed and when this turns into a hate? Is it only war?
Russia will have to introduce a reeducation program that clearly sets out who is to blame for the misfortunes of Ukraine.
They will, and are more than capable of doing so.
Nah. Popper level of hate in ex-Yu countries lasted no more than 10 years after the wars ended. Same will happen in Ukraine. Similar people, similar temperament, similar ideologies underlining it all. Outcome will be similar.
It is still alive in certain percentage of population, but I would say that average ppl (about 90%) are long over it. And ones that still do hate are not brave enough to do much more than smash a window of a car with "wrong" license plates here and there.
What Russia can do to shorten this time-frame even more is to invest heavily in the newly appropriated regions. People forget how to hate quickly once they start living much better than before. Just look at Grozny.
There can be a deal where the 300 billions blocked by the west is unblocked on condition it is used solely to rebuild Ukraine. So even the money will be there.
Unfortunately, the history will linger, and it will be impossible to get rid of it for the next 100 years. It will kindle in the background, ready to be used by foreign power again at time of Russian weakens.
Russia is at present, and has been for decades including all through The Glorious Maidan and the SMO, Ukraine's single biggest foreign investor by a wide margin, mostly via Cyprus as Special Purpose Entities (SPE's). But you're correct.
Many Ukrainians and Russians desperately want to believe that the West is The Blessed Land Where Institutions Basically Work.
For Ukrainians, if hating their own parents and brothers is the price of admission to that happy land, then that is what they will do.
Sadly, not only Ukrainians and Russians.....the brainwashing of young people everywhere is an ongoing project of the Western propaganda.
America still has an amazing reserve of soft power,which they insist on squandering.
"In short, the U.S. economy has been parasitized by Wall Street, and it’s nearly impossible to be competitive or get anything done anymore between the vast financializations and endless capitalizations of everything and the impenetrable bureaucracies that have sprouted up as guardians of this esoteric science."
And therein lies the heart of the matter...war profits are substantial in low conflict zones but the West can no longer arm a peer to peer war.
The US makes high-tech that doesn't work very well and costs ten million dollars per. Like the nearly useless Patriot missile, or hanger-queen F-35. Meanwhile, the Russians grind out low-tech that works Very well, by the thousands, at low cost.
I wouldn't say Russian missiles of every type were low tech. They're far higher tech than anything we in the west have.
The writer-turned-soldier, Vozhak Z, could have been describing any of us in the west. It was a rather poignant observation about what is driving the hatred of the rank & file enemy. I dare say the anger of the west, when war comes upon us will be quite similar.
Best comment ever.
So when we see Israel strike a building-it goes down like a pancake. Why not the same when Russia hits a building?
Maybe because the IDF is targeting civilian structures mainly, whereas the RF concentrates mainly on industrial/commercial buildings? Just a guess.
yeah, I thought maybe the Palestinian building were badly built.....but I'd like to know cause the Israeli capacity for damage looks savage. Ca'nt wait for the thousands of suicide bombers to come out of the Gaza ground like ants!!!!! BOOM BABY BOOM!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1tj2zJ2Wvg
Israel is also bunker-busting tunnels beneath Gaza. Several videos of a buster dropping and then secondary explosions coming out of the ground across a neighborhood.
that hospital-if Hamas-or IJ- has a rocket that can do that kinda thing ( and MSM said it was just a fragment!!) then Israel is in some kinda trouble-which I like :)
Simple , better building codes in Ukraine , but it is clearly all about the amo. that being employed . The SMO . in Ukraine is with gloves on .
yeah I was thinking about the ammo-some kind of cutting explosive? Those floors fall on on top the other -pan cake like.
The buildings that you see collapsing are made of cement panels , that are being held together with steel rebar . The steel will melt at 980 Celsius which is about 1796 Fahrenheit . Upon the impact of high explosives the connections simply melt away , plus the kinetic impact causing the building to drop like a house of cards .
Guess what are buildings in Ukraine made of.
Exactly the same thing.
Just different standards
JDAM is a potent weapon. Hundreds of kg per strike of high explosive. Artillery is much less.
Russia when FAB-500 or 1500 hits a building would do similar. But they use them differently.
SO i GUES WHAT YOUR SAYING IS WITHOUT AD CONCERNS FORM RUSSIA UKRAINE WOULD LOOK LIKE GAZA. but some of those Israeli bombings show the building GOING DOWN floor on floor , one on top the other. Have'nt seen any Ukie war porn similiar. Appricate if you'd post a link if you got any pancake action-love a good snuff film.
Tunnels don’t exactly make strong foundations…
No, because Russia has not deliberately targeted civilians. They could have razed portions of Kiev or Odessa by now if they wanted to, regardless of AD
Flattening cities is not their thing, different school. Urban warfare notwithstanding but those were deserted
If you have any friends Billy, they should be concerned for your mental health.
Not really. Bombing hospitals and the like sends folk crazy. Israel is gonna get what it deserves. A billion Muslims are getting wound up minute by minute, Tik Tok by Tik Tok. No other other way. Like the Ukie Nazis the Israelis just won't share-expcept in the pain. So let her rip. Nothing high tech, just a guy or gal with vest full of nails and c4 and a Tel Aviv bus.....and a camera-Billy has have his amusements :)
Gaza coastal cities are sand so weak foundations, and the buildings aren't built as strong as Soviet apartment blocks.
And as they have been under a blockade for almost ever we can be fairly certain Gaza buildings will be weaker due to lack of rebar, low quality concrete, etc.
That makes a lot sense. Now the Israelis are saying they are going to bomb the main hospital! Zero F's given. A blood bath for Israel is comming. Tick .Tick. BOOM!
yep, the ashkeNAZis have gone too far this time. Their Karma will be epic. Stock up on popcorn and watch these filthy scum burn under barrages of hypersonics!
There are tunnels underneath the buildings, which don’t help with the buildings’ fortification.
True, although the tunnels are lined with reinforced concrete, they aren't just hollowed out sandy soil.
Whatever. They are built under hospitals, mosques, apartment buildings, etc., where munitions are stored. That’s the point. Presumably Hamas knew that if their munitions were blown up, civilians would be killed. Sounds a bit like the Azov/Ukrainians that we’ve been tracking….strange, however, that when Hamas does this, it’s ok. When Ukrainians do it, it’s criminal.
Because for the most part Russia hasn’t been striking buildings like that. The other issue is that most Ukrainian infrastructure was built by the Soviets who over built and as the saying goes “they just don’t build them like they used to”. Many buildings in Gaza are built as cheaply as possible because that’s the only option. There’s not as much rebar as there should be, the concrete may have just enough cement and not be cured well enough, etc.
It is by design , that the Russians don't destroy residential areas , because they would have to rebuild them after the demilitarization is completed . It is by design that more or less trying to confine the SMO . on one front line , and lessen the destruction . It is by design that the pancake like destruction taking place in Gaza , because they will have to be rebuild . Except the rebuilding will be in the different style of houses . Who will live in those newly designed houses ? Your guess is as good as mine.
Maybe because the tunnels under the Palestinian buildings are filled with munitions, despite civilians living in those buildings…..There is a reason why Israel wants Palestinians to move south. The entirety of Gaza is built on munitions storage areas. Like this…bomb one bunker and others explode due to the pressure: https://videopress.com/v/m68OCG6K
I get your point, I've only managed to see a couple of those gopher holes go up in vids. Given absolute carnage Israel is wreaking on Gaza I'da expected a LOT MORE BOOM from those storages. My guess -just a guess-those are the older shallow ones. I'd expect Hamas to have gotten some expert military engineering advice from some place ( Iran? ) and planned out a whole tunnel warfare program. There is a some simple but effective equipment small time operators use in rinky dink ming operations-see youtube. I'd EXPECT Hamas are ALL over THAT. Happy Hanukkah !!!!! P.S I hear a rumour there gonna be a BIG special on Kosher meat comming up real soon!
I suspect that, similar to the Russian idea, Israel does not want to harm civilians. They’ve been dropping flyers into Gaza, telling people to move south. Hamas is telling people to stay.
No, the reason they want North Gaza cleared is because it's been Israeli policy for 75 years, removing non Jews from Palestine. How do you know where weapons are stored? And if Mossad didn't know Hamas were going to attack Israel, how would they know where weapons are stored. The video you linked to proves nothing.
They want to flatten Gaza so that it's uninhabitable and kill as many people as they can in the process.
What mumbo jumbo. Gaza was part of Egypt until 1967. Sadly, Egypt doesn’t want it back. None of the Arab states want militant Palestinians in their midst.
Do you have any idea how sturdy soviet buildings are. You need to research the likes of their bridges & other big places. Everything is built with reenforce concrete, that's reenforce again. On the other side of it. The buildings in Gaza are cheaply built with no building regulations at all. It's pretty straight forward really. You hit reenforce concrete it hardly damages the structure. You hit a Sandcastle lightly , it falls down.
I am sure Russia was probing hard against the Bandera lines around Avdiivka at first. It took about 48 hours to get the cauldron in place and to get a small small wedge stuck into the southern part of the town. As best as I could tell the Bandera army really couldn't get any effective counter-attacks moving before the RU got dug in. No doubt cuz the RU spent nearly 20 months destroying Bandera forces while conserving and building it's own.
I can't see the Bandera army trying to hold Avdiivka the way it did at Artymovsk. There ain't going to be a 4th NATO army coming.
"Winter is coming."
The points covered as to why, despite better fortification of Avdeevka relative to Bahkmut, are quite interesting. How ffs, however, did they after so much work for 9 years fail to build better MSR infrastructure.
Also, though Simplicius has noted another factor before that's making Russia's work easier, namely the decreasing quality of the Uke army, he didn't touch on that this round at least not specifically relative to the Avdeebka battle. Personally, I think that's another major contribution to the AFU's dismal defense of such a strategic location.
The EU and NATO sent quite a bit of cash to the Ukraine for infrastructure projects. Many of those infrastructure projects can be found in London, Miami, Cyprus and other popular bolt holes.
Lack of infrastructure is no doubt a contributing factor. NATO's Military Dependency of Ukraine can't maintain the #1 spot as Most Corrupt European Nation if it acted otherwise.
To paraphrase Omar Bradley; "Amateurs talk strategy, pros talk logistics."
Ukraine, the Haiti of Europe
The most corrupt thing in Europe is not Ukraine, but the European Union.
No way. The WEF's beta test for global fascism would never "color outside the lines", take kickbacks on infrastructure funding schemes that were never completed or be bribed. Just not possible the most noble among us are venal, petty, amoral narcissists and sociopaths.
Thanks Simplicius. Excellent as always. And as a consequence of the Israel Hamas Gaza stuff, there's no front page "reporting" (lol) on Ukraine in the "democratic and free" American media.
Keiv has quite the obsession with unicorn weapons systems. Think I would have to agree that the fab glide bombs and lancets are really the big game changers in the war. Gotta wonder if that is really the main difference between Bakhmut and Avdeevka, that and Russia's almost complete air dominance. Probably why they haven't been launching missile attacks recently except for the occasional hard target. Much cheaper to let equipment and reserves amass in the near rear and bomb it there before it can be brought to action. Ukraine is a dead duck without a functioning airforce/air defense.
The post by the Russian soldier "Leader" really struck me when he talks about the complicity of the forcibly mobilized, and his lack of sorrow for them. Because it could be a fate that future western mobilized soldiers may eventually find themselves in if things don't change. If you mind your business, ignore atrocities and don't choose a side, a side may eventually be chosen for you. And it might not be the side you'd prefer to be on.
Thank you for another great write up.
It was very illustrative writing. Thank you !
I wonder how difficult it would be for Russia to assimilate new territories after so much bloodshed. As pro Russian as people might have been all their lives, I think Kiev regime would have made sure to send the ethnic Russians to meat grinder. Would their families ever be able to live in Novorossiya as loyal citizens?
Would you sometime explain the logic of theater of resolutions being presented (and vetoed) in UN? Let's say all agree on a certain resolution ultimately in near future, with civilians getting slaughtered nonstop till then, what would it achieve? Has Israel ever upheld a single UN resolution or international law or rules of human rights or anything at all? The only possible practical solution of most conflicts seems to be financial collapse of US. Why do Arab countries, and others, not dare to sanction or boycott trade with Israel? Nobody is taking any practical step from what I can see, everybody is busy paying lip service. As for Hamas, they could have build a few bunkers for civilians too perhaps?
Good questions, as for point by point
- assimilate new territories. they already doing it by investing very heavily into them. Remember Mariupol occupied by Ukraine since 2014 and then completely levelled in 2022? It is fully rebuilt now. Compare to that our New Orleans who STILL have not rebuilt from Katrina in 2005 (!!!) is an example
- people finding peace, not the first time (and likely not the last). Civil war 100 years ago, 4+ million dead.
- "Has Israel ever upheld a single UN resolution or international law or rules of human rights or anything at all" every one of them, time after time after time. Israel is fighting with kid gloves, all hands tied behind its back. 'Arab world' is using Gaza people same way 'West' is using Ukrainians , as cannon fodder, they lie continuously about them, do not let them leave (Egypt does not want them, neither does Syria where Hamas is fighting on the side of Turkey/USA against Syrian government shooting as Hesbollah/Iranians/Russians).
- As for Hamas, they could have build a few bunkers for civilians too perhaps? It is ISIS/Muslim Brotherhood, as evil as it comes. why would it do it? HAMAS took power by killing tens of thousands of Palestinians who were for Palestinian Authority (Fatah) in street battles, bankrolled by evil sheilks (and US 'allies') in Qatar, and trained by another 'NATO Ally' Turkey. They have less than zero concern for civilians as to them end justifies the means. They kill Shia Muslims in Syria, kill Sunnis in Egypt , what do you expect ?
HAMAS will continue to blow up child centers, mosques, and kill civilians (their own) at mass to generate the picture/message, exactly the same Kiev regime kills civs in Ukraine (including their own) and blame Russia. Just as Europe perfectly knowing who did it has to say 'Putin/Russia is at fault', exactly the same Muslim world would always lie and say 'Israel is responsible' for anything Hamas would kill. same lies, just from different side.
I bet that Hamas has dug lots of air raid shelters for the public that elected them democratically, making the Hamas party the only legitimately-elected body in the middle east.
I don't agree with your assessment about either Hamas or Israel. Israel has been in open violation of UN resolutions, has a horrible record in human rights and all this is recorded in UN, which is most certainly a tool of US. Hamas was funded by Israel when it appeared on scene and some of its leaders were bought off by Israel just like most Arab leaders. Tge current Hamas is not the same and it's not Hamas alone fighting but several other resistance groups in Gaza are involved. I can suggest you a few western and jewish sources to know the truth about Israel if you're interested. You can look for Alistair Crooke, Col. Larry (I think) Wilkinson, Ilan Pappe, Norman Finklestein, Gideon Levy etc. And Grayzone, Abby Martin, Eva Bartlett have extensively covered Gaza, Westbank etc.
Superb update. Great to read the history of Debaltsevo as well. Also, defeating the AFU in Avdeevka would be a powerful morale blow
I am keeping an eye on various economic and industrial indicators. Russia running their central bank interest rates at 15% is very concerning, it essentially makes any kind of credit-based economic activity unviable. It is also an indicator of strong pressure on capital outflows. Meanwhile, on the western side, as the smoke clears, the US posts 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 (where the hell is it coming from? I literally hear nothing but rough news from all my industry contacts) while the EU more or less stagnates or recedes.
Russia & China are accelerating their trade and economic ties, but they need to do more
The higher interest rates that mean larger mortgage, credit card and loan payments all contribute to GDP. Inflation is goosing GDP numbers too.
High interest rates are a drag on some economic activity but they’re worse in systems dependent on lots of credit. Russia also has all sorts of preferential rates for various things like mortgages and industrial development (along with the state directly funding certain activities). I’m not saying that the 15% is a nothingburger buts not at all the same as 15% interest rates in the US.
Fair points. US is extremely credit driven as you rightly pointed out. I am not familiar with the dynamics in Russia.
Thanks for that. Interesting info. The capital outflows are still annoying though.
What is Russia's running inflation rate? After nearly doubling military spending I imagine that pumped inflation.
Our (US) GDP growth is due to insane Big Gubmint spending. Commercial real estate rents are falling as vacancies rise. Residential real estate sales are slowing and it is now cheaper to rent than own in large markets. Credit, auto and consumer loan defaults are rising fast, the yield curve is warped. The nature of Federal Reserve banking means every bank is required to have the same exposure to the same liability, US treasuries.
We are screwed.
"Meanwhile, on the western side, as the smoke clears, the US posts 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 (where the hell is it coming from?"
I can make any wino look like a financial wizard, for so long as said wino is able to borrow and refinance.
In this case, the wino can do one better - the wino can basically print money and get others to accept it.
https://www.shadowstats.com/
This might help....
I heard once that Russia has a workers shortage, how are they gonna be able to significantly increase production without enough workers?
They'll import the workers from CIS, CSTO, SCO, and BRICS+ nations.
Add North Koreans. They have lots of willing workers.
Automation, or just wrap up the SMO sooner than later so decent Germans can begin immigrating to Russia again, bringing their Teutonic expertise and work ethic with them.
NK has always supplied workers, but the CIS countries supply a lot of workers for Russia, there's no shortage of people looking to earn money