There are several important Russian breakthroughs in Avdeevka, which are now being bitterly confirmed by Ukrainian sources. It’s now without doubt that both sides have gone “all in” and Avdeevka has in fact become the de facto central battlefield to define the latter part of this year.
Can’t beat a Friday night with Simplicius and scotch. What happened to Avdeevka after 2015? It is so close to Donetsk on the map, so it is baffling that it has been in Ukrainian hands for this long.
Mitch the glitch is a symbol of the crumbling gerentocracy. Most Americans are sick of the uniparty neocon regime that launders taxpayer money to enrich itself. The era of magical thinking unipolaritt is ending. They are running out of credibility, ammo, money, and men.
Hopefully Ukraine's loss of Avdeevka will prevent Kiev's targeted slaughter of innocent civilians in Donetsk with artillery fire, or at least make it more difficult.
I found Filipov's comments about fighting 'fellow Ukrainians' brutally frank. A lot of front line reports dwell on the sad task of fighting 'their own people' - a war brother against brother, etc. Filipov is having none of it. They had the choice since 2014 to object or flee and instead chose to just keep their heads down, run their little farms and hope the whole thing would blow over. So Dimitry and those like him have no qualms about destroying them now that putsch has come to shove.,
Is there a link for the US production of 40,000/month? The last I saw it was still at 28,000 and the 90,000/month target had been pushed from 2025 to almost 2028. Not that it matters greatly. 90k/month is the minimum to make a real difference, and that would require building additional factories.
I think the breaking point is getting closer and the time between now and reaching it is going to start accelerating. Adveeka will be a huge loss for Kiev. It is strategic but it’s hugely important for the psychology of both sides. It won’t make Donetsk safe, but will make it safer. And a significant loss in a significant fortified line with winter coming and following the complete failure of Ukraine’s offensive will have second order effects. I don’t see Kiev lasting another year.
The same people who were part of the Maiden coup during the Obama administration are now part of the Biden administration. What will it take to stop this evil?
The hate of Ukrainians is going to last a long time. It is just so sad! Once you start an action, as Hannah Arendt wrote, it always involves others and it is impossible to control! Thank you for your reporting.
"In short, the U.S. economy has been parasitized by Wall Street, and it’s nearly impossible to be competitive or get anything done anymore between the vast financializations and endless capitalizations of everything and the impenetrable bureaucracies that have sprouted up as guardians of this esoteric science."
And therein lies the heart of the matter...war profits are substantial in low conflict zones but the West can no longer arm a peer to peer war.
The writer-turned-soldier, Vozhak Z, could have been describing any of us in the west. It was a rather poignant observation about what is driving the hatred of the rank & file enemy. I dare say the anger of the west, when war comes upon us will be quite similar.
I am sure Russia was probing hard against the Bandera lines around Avdiivka at first. It took about 48 hours to get the cauldron in place and to get a small small wedge stuck into the southern part of the town. As best as I could tell the Bandera army really couldn't get any effective counter-attacks moving before the RU got dug in. No doubt cuz the RU spent nearly 20 months destroying Bandera forces while conserving and building it's own.
I can't see the Bandera army trying to hold Avdiivka the way it did at Artymovsk. There ain't going to be a 4th NATO army coming.
Thanks Simplicius. Excellent as always. And as a consequence of the Israel Hamas Gaza stuff, there's no front page "reporting" (lol) on Ukraine in the "democratic and free" American media.
Keiv has quite the obsession with unicorn weapons systems. Think I would have to agree that the fab glide bombs and lancets are really the big game changers in the war. Gotta wonder if that is really the main difference between Bakhmut and Avdeevka, that and Russia's almost complete air dominance. Probably why they haven't been launching missile attacks recently except for the occasional hard target. Much cheaper to let equipment and reserves amass in the near rear and bomb it there before it can be brought to action. Ukraine is a dead duck without a functioning airforce/air defense.
The post by the Russian soldier "Leader" really struck me when he talks about the complicity of the forcibly mobilized, and his lack of sorrow for them. Because it could be a fate that future western mobilized soldiers may eventually find themselves in if things don't change. If you mind your business, ignore atrocities and don't choose a side, a side may eventually be chosen for you. And it might not be the side you'd prefer to be on.
I wonder how difficult it would be for Russia to assimilate new territories after so much bloodshed. As pro Russian as people might have been all their lives, I think Kiev regime would have made sure to send the ethnic Russians to meat grinder. Would their families ever be able to live in Novorossiya as loyal citizens?
Would you sometime explain the logic of theater of resolutions being presented (and vetoed) in UN? Let's say all agree on a certain resolution ultimately in near future, with civilians getting slaughtered nonstop till then, what would it achieve? Has Israel ever upheld a single UN resolution or international law or rules of human rights or anything at all? The only possible practical solution of most conflicts seems to be financial collapse of US. Why do Arab countries, and others, not dare to sanction or boycott trade with Israel? Nobody is taking any practical step from what I can see, everybody is busy paying lip service. As for Hamas, they could have build a few bunkers for civilians too perhaps?
Superb update. Great to read the history of Debaltsevo as well. Also, defeating the AFU in Avdeevka would be a powerful morale blow
I am keeping an eye on various economic and industrial indicators. Russia running their central bank interest rates at 15% is very concerning, it essentially makes any kind of credit-based economic activity unviable. It is also an indicator of strong pressure on capital outflows. Meanwhile, on the western side, as the smoke clears, the US posts 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 (where the hell is it coming from? I literally hear nothing but rough news from all my industry contacts) while the EU more or less stagnates or recedes.
Russia & China are accelerating their trade and economic ties, but they need to do more
Can’t beat a Friday night with Simplicius and scotch. What happened to Avdeevka after 2015? It is so close to Donetsk on the map, so it is baffling that it has been in Ukrainian hands for this long.
Mitch the glitch is a symbol of the crumbling gerentocracy. Most Americans are sick of the uniparty neocon regime that launders taxpayer money to enrich itself. The era of magical thinking unipolaritt is ending. They are running out of credibility, ammo, money, and men.
Hopefully Ukraine's loss of Avdeevka will prevent Kiev's targeted slaughter of innocent civilians in Donetsk with artillery fire, or at least make it more difficult.
I found Filipov's comments about fighting 'fellow Ukrainians' brutally frank. A lot of front line reports dwell on the sad task of fighting 'their own people' - a war brother against brother, etc. Filipov is having none of it. They had the choice since 2014 to object or flee and instead chose to just keep their heads down, run their little farms and hope the whole thing would blow over. So Dimitry and those like him have no qualms about destroying them now that putsch has come to shove.,
Is there a link for the US production of 40,000/month? The last I saw it was still at 28,000 and the 90,000/month target had been pushed from 2025 to almost 2028. Not that it matters greatly. 90k/month is the minimum to make a real difference, and that would require building additional factories.
I think the breaking point is getting closer and the time between now and reaching it is going to start accelerating. Adveeka will be a huge loss for Kiev. It is strategic but it’s hugely important for the psychology of both sides. It won’t make Donetsk safe, but will make it safer. And a significant loss in a significant fortified line with winter coming and following the complete failure of Ukraine’s offensive will have second order effects. I don’t see Kiev lasting another year.
The same people who were part of the Maiden coup during the Obama administration are now part of the Biden administration. What will it take to stop this evil?
The hate of Ukrainians is going to last a long time. It is just so sad! Once you start an action, as Hannah Arendt wrote, it always involves others and it is impossible to control! Thank you for your reporting.
"In short, the U.S. economy has been parasitized by Wall Street, and it’s nearly impossible to be competitive or get anything done anymore between the vast financializations and endless capitalizations of everything and the impenetrable bureaucracies that have sprouted up as guardians of this esoteric science."
And therein lies the heart of the matter...war profits are substantial in low conflict zones but the West can no longer arm a peer to peer war.
The writer-turned-soldier, Vozhak Z, could have been describing any of us in the west. It was a rather poignant observation about what is driving the hatred of the rank & file enemy. I dare say the anger of the west, when war comes upon us will be quite similar.
So when we see Israel strike a building-it goes down like a pancake. Why not the same when Russia hits a building?
I am sure Russia was probing hard against the Bandera lines around Avdiivka at first. It took about 48 hours to get the cauldron in place and to get a small small wedge stuck into the southern part of the town. As best as I could tell the Bandera army really couldn't get any effective counter-attacks moving before the RU got dug in. No doubt cuz the RU spent nearly 20 months destroying Bandera forces while conserving and building it's own.
I can't see the Bandera army trying to hold Avdiivka the way it did at Artymovsk. There ain't going to be a 4th NATO army coming.
"Winter is coming."
Thanks Simplicius. Excellent as always. And as a consequence of the Israel Hamas Gaza stuff, there's no front page "reporting" (lol) on Ukraine in the "democratic and free" American media.
Keiv has quite the obsession with unicorn weapons systems. Think I would have to agree that the fab glide bombs and lancets are really the big game changers in the war. Gotta wonder if that is really the main difference between Bakhmut and Avdeevka, that and Russia's almost complete air dominance. Probably why they haven't been launching missile attacks recently except for the occasional hard target. Much cheaper to let equipment and reserves amass in the near rear and bomb it there before it can be brought to action. Ukraine is a dead duck without a functioning airforce/air defense.
The post by the Russian soldier "Leader" really struck me when he talks about the complicity of the forcibly mobilized, and his lack of sorrow for them. Because it could be a fate that future western mobilized soldiers may eventually find themselves in if things don't change. If you mind your business, ignore atrocities and don't choose a side, a side may eventually be chosen for you. And it might not be the side you'd prefer to be on.
Thank you for another great write up.
It was very illustrative writing. Thank you !
I wonder how difficult it would be for Russia to assimilate new territories after so much bloodshed. As pro Russian as people might have been all their lives, I think Kiev regime would have made sure to send the ethnic Russians to meat grinder. Would their families ever be able to live in Novorossiya as loyal citizens?
Would you sometime explain the logic of theater of resolutions being presented (and vetoed) in UN? Let's say all agree on a certain resolution ultimately in near future, with civilians getting slaughtered nonstop till then, what would it achieve? Has Israel ever upheld a single UN resolution or international law or rules of human rights or anything at all? The only possible practical solution of most conflicts seems to be financial collapse of US. Why do Arab countries, and others, not dare to sanction or boycott trade with Israel? Nobody is taking any practical step from what I can see, everybody is busy paying lip service. As for Hamas, they could have build a few bunkers for civilians too perhaps?
Superb update. Great to read the history of Debaltsevo as well. Also, defeating the AFU in Avdeevka would be a powerful morale blow
I am keeping an eye on various economic and industrial indicators. Russia running their central bank interest rates at 15% is very concerning, it essentially makes any kind of credit-based economic activity unviable. It is also an indicator of strong pressure on capital outflows. Meanwhile, on the western side, as the smoke clears, the US posts 4.9% GDP growth in Q3 (where the hell is it coming from? I literally hear nothing but rough news from all my industry contacts) while the EU more or less stagnates or recedes.
Russia & China are accelerating their trade and economic ties, but they need to do more
I heard once that Russia has a workers shortage, how are they gonna be able to significantly increase production without enough workers?