SITREP 10/24/23: Avdeevka Victories Confirmed as Mid-East Continues Slide Toward War

We start with major acknowledgments by Ukraine that Russia has captured important positions in Avdeevka, particularly around the Slag Heap and Stepove-railway area. Yes, these are the same positions discussed for a week now but I believe they have been going back and forth in a ‘gray zone’ that no one quite controlled. Now Russia has reportedly established firm control over them from which further expansions can be made, after some consolidations.

We talked about Russia’s OPSEC in this area, but it seems they were saving up to release one big produced video for the capture of the Slag Heap, which they finally revealed today, showing the destruction of Ukrainian defenders crawling all over the Slag Heap like flies on dung:

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It gives some interesting insight, as I myself didn’t realize the Slag Heap had actual burrows dug into it all over. Not only have Russian forces burned out all the defenders but placed the flag of the 114th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on top, which is the unit I’ve been saying since the beginning has been the main breakthrough force assaulting in the north Krasnogorovka area.

The AFU was so utterly miffed (read: butthurt) about this, they even squandered precious FPV drones on trying to destroy the Russian flag—talk about insecurity and having your priorities set. It shows that to them, vanity and the information war is all-important:

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But speaking of the 114th on the flag. The 114th was the famed Vostok Battalion of the DPR prior to being absorbed into the Russian military structure:

I emphasize this to highlight the point that all the so-called “losses” Ukraine claims Russia is incurring here are not really Russian losses. Yes, the DPR units are now officially subsumed into the Russian military corps structure, but you have to understand the differences.

Why do the Ukrainians highlight Russian losses? It’s under the hope that Russia incurs so many losses their society will no longer accept the war, because too many cemeteries will be filled, soldiers returning home in body bags, etc. But not a single one of these soldiers return to Russia—they are all Donetsk natives. That’s not to belittle their sacrifice but simply to point out that the actual mainland of Russia proper will never “feel” the effects of these losses—the families in Moscow or any other Russia proper region will be completely oblivious. That means any hoped-for socio-political action against Putin or whatever it is pro-Ukrainians hope for cannot possibly happen as a result of any perceived “losses” in this sector. No cemetery in Russia proper will expand with a single grave or plot from this front. The actual real Russian army is not suffering almost any losses at all at present, except maybe some in the Kupyansk direction. In short, Russian political leadership can “afford” losses here without issue, as callous as that might sound.

But that’s moot anyway because we now have increasing evidence that it’s certainly not Russia or DPR taking the bulk of the losses in Avdeevka. More and more reports come to light suggesting that the AFU’s losses in this region are staggering.

Firstly, understand that reports came literally a week before the start of the Avdeevka operation that the famed Ukrainian 47th brigade had been “removed” or pulled back from the Zaporozhye front because it was so heavily destroyed and faced mutiny from within, as much of the fighters refused to go on assault any further.

You can see the date of the news below:

https://en.topwar.ru/227094-genshtab-vsu-vyvodit-v-tyl-otkazavshujusja-idti-v-nastuplenie-na-linii-rabotino-verbovoe-47-ju-mehanizirovannuju-brigadu.html

Recall that the 47th is the only brigade to have been given M2 Bradleys as part of the big elite 9 brigades that took part in the summer counteroffensive.

Now, it’s been confirmed that elements of the 47th, after being pulled to the rear, have been urgently injected into Avdeevka to help staunch the losses. This is confirmed through a variety of sources, including the fact that Bradleys have appeared for the first time, geolocated to the north sector near Krasnogorovka at 48°12'46.5"N 37°42'15.7"E:

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This captured AFU soldier from Avdeevka also speaks of both Bradleys and Leopards operating on the front:

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And pro-Ukrainian maps are now featuring the 47th there as well:

So, why is all that important? Because we have a new video from a female medic from the 47th who plainly states that their casualties are the most horrific they’ve ever been, since the start of the conflict:

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“We lost more in a few hours than in the past 4 months.”

She’s been identified as Olena Rizh of the 47th brigade:

Considering that the past 4 months, the 47th was in the absolute worst Rabotino meat-grinder it’s nearly unimaginable the type of losses she must be referring to.

Due to heavy losses, at least one battalion of the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was transferred to Ocheretino and Novobakhmutovka from the Orekhovsky site. Their forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to strike positions near the waste heap, but to no avail.

Recent article on the shambolic 47th:

Russian aviation and artillery continue to work on enemy lines. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are growing: according to sources, during a week of active fighting, the number of killed members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine alone exceeded 1 thousand people and 60 pieces of equipment.

In fact, some of AFU’s own reports now claim that much of the AKHZ chemical plant, aka Coke Plant, is in a ‘gray zone’ which neither side controls, due to not only Russia’s mass bombing but Russia’s newfound proximity to the plant by way of capturing the adjacent Slag Heap:

The most difficult situation near Avdiyivka is in the area of the AKHZ territory.

The situation is such that no one is physically controlling him now. We have fire control.

Any attempts by the occupiers to enter it and gain a foothold are ended by the powerful attacks of our cassettes on the enemy.

This is the basic scenario of the last few days. The occupiers enter the territory, suffer losses, and in the best case - those who survived leave. But very often nobody leaves 👹

Our army also suffers losses, because it is also impossible to stop such an enemy horde without it. The best leave us.

But the enemy is losing so much that it can be compared even with the first days of a full-scale invasion.

There are also heavy battles for the railway in the direction of Stepovoy. It is under our control, but the enemy does not spare the equipment and o/s to achieve the goal.

👉 Ukrainian Post

Recall my outlined plan from the last report. It’s likely what Russia is attempting to do: gain a foothold in the plant so as to get total fire control over the MSR (main supply route).

Today’s RT released video shows for the first time the view from the Slag Heap. You can see how tall the Coke Plant is, and how much fire control it can afford over the entire region with emplacements in the plant’s heights.

The view is going in the direction of this yellow arrow:

The problem is, as you can see, the plant is taller than expected and potentially obstructs the view of the MSR shown in red above. That’s bad news as it means that capturing the Slag Heap may not in fact give direct fire control over the MSR and in fact to do that, the plant may need to be captured, at least the top-most portion of it as outlined last time.

But by the sounds of the earlier Ukrainian report, Russia has already completed the first step in evicting AFU defenders from that portion of the plant, and is already trying to storm it. We’ll have to wait for confirmations.

Read the bottom of this Ukrainian report:

The “highway to Pokrovsk” is precisely the MSR, which AFU here appears to be confirming is under fire control.

Reports continue to highlight the significance of Avdeevka to the AFU and the deja vu of Bakhmut that it’s shaping up into:

⚡️⚡️⚡️☝️Ukrainian Resident TG channel about the reaction of Zelensky's gang to news from Avdeevsky's leadership:

“Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at the headquarters asked Zaluzhny to hold Avdiivka by all means so as not to repeat the situation with the shameful loss of the Bakhmut fortress.

The president's office ignored all the arguments of the commander-in-chief about the complexity of the defense of the city, which is half-surrounded, and the enemy is conducting the Avdeevka noose operation, exhausting the Ukrainian Armed Forces according to the Bakhmutov meat grinder scenario⚡️⚡️⚡️

Ukraine did attempt a fairly large desperate assault in the southwest to undercut Russian forces at the southern Avdeevka axis, pushing in from around Pervomaisk. But it was said Russian forces repulsed the attack and retook the slight bit of territory AFU initially grabbed.

Arestovich has even now conceded that Avdeevka stands to fall just like Bakhmut, and that the pro-Ukrainian side is falling into the trap of the same wishful thinking, self-soothing cognitive dissonances they used during Lisichansk, Bakhmut, etc.:

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Lastly, a representative of the Pyatnashka Brigade of the DPR involved in Avdeevka battles tells Russell “Texas” Bentley that Avdeevka will “fall soon”.

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I think the word “soon” is relative, however it is interesting she mentions they’re advancing on the industrial sector which does seem to imply that Russia could have the Coke Plant as a primary capture target.

And a video taken by Ukrainian drone, allegedly, of a column of Russian 114th troops moving somewhere toward the Avdeevka front:

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As well as a new perspective from the side of the Russian column which advanced toward that Stepove railway, which we saw shot from a Ukrainian drone last time, over a field lightly blanketed with snow:

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***

Now all eyes are on the Kherson front—Ukrainian accounts are doing their best to amplify the propaganda there in order to distract from their slowly building calamity in Avdeevka. They continue to push fakes about major AFU captures but in fact it’s nothing more than a dozen or two cannonfodder who continue wedging themselves into the first few buildings of a settlement there, then get destroyed from massive artillery bombardment.

To give you an example, here’s a geolocated position that a Russian FPV drone struck:

As you can see, once again, all they’ve done is cross the marshy islet in the middle of the Dnieper and quickly rush some guys into one building. Big deal—it doesn’t mean anything. Some laughably try to characterize it as a ‘beachhead’ forming into a ‘lodgement’.

This is nonsense. First of all, the main thing I noticed most people don’t understand about how amphibious type of operations work is this:

It’s very easy to make some kind of long distance landing, whether it’s amphibious or air assault via helicopters. That’s not the hard part. You can land and even capture a few objects—but how do you hold it, is the question. What do you do after your standard 6 or 9 magazines run out? Who’s resupplying you? Where do you get food from? More importantly, how do you break out into a wider lodgement, with what armor or mechanized forces?

This is why these landings are nothing more than little gadfly attempts to distract Russian forces. It’s all about logistics. The AFU has no way to move major armor and fuel to that side of the shore, nor any serious resupply capabilities, apart from maybe bringing a few sandwiches via drone to a small group. Anyone knows how logistics works knows it’s completely unfeasible to support a serious force in this manner. After all, that’s why the much wiser Russian generals pulled out of Kherson entirely. Even though they weren’t having huge, overt issues just yet, they nonetheless recognized how precarious of a logistical issue it was to be lodged on the other side of a river with no reliably secure cross points which can’t be disabled by the enemy.

One commenter summarized it well with the following:

Why is everyone so excited about a Dniepr crossing. It's basically DDay but the Allies have -No ships -No Air Force -No tanks or other armored vehicles -No logistics While the Germans have all of the above. You decide who has the better cards here...

One Ukrainian post complains about how they are unable to exercise any element of surprise:

👉👉👉 Ukrainian Post

The brothers were asked to describe the situation in the area of the left bank of the Dnieper.

Kryna A small part of the settlement is under the confident control of the Armed Forces. Logistics between them and the shore - works. There is a possibility for the evacuation of 200 and 300. The settlement itself is quite stretched out, so there is no question of complete control yet. For example ork artillery works, aviation - around the clock, on the right bank. The situation is complicated by the fact that the boys work in conditions of lack of surprise and stealth. It is impossible to achieve the element of suddenness in modern conditions - everything happens online. Therefore, we do not expect quick results and support.

In contradiction, other Russian reports from the sector state AFU is not even able to reliably move wounded and dead, and does not have such a basic logistical pipeline as everything is under fire control.

Floodplain-Krynki in the Kherson region: the enemy is pinned to the railway bridge over the Konka River, up to 30 people are sitting in a green area nearby, they can't escape anywhere. Artillery works on them.

In Krynki, Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to occupy several houses in the northern part of the village. There was almost no work on them today. In general, the problem with dachas under the Antonovsky Bridge is repeated, where the enemy has been holding its mini-bridgehead for almost half a year.

One small example shows AFU huddling under a bridge after crossing, and being quickly picked off by an FPV drone:

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There’s constant rumors of Russian problems in this sector—rumors that the commander is or was being replaced; reports showing Russians using a “home made mortar” welded together with old pipes. However, looking into it, one quickly finds potential explanations. For instance, one person reported the mortar issue was due to the Russian unit having captured a bunch of Ukrainian-American 60mm mortar shells for which Russia has no equivalent mortar (typically using 82mm and 120mm). So they fashioned their own 60mm equivalent. Frontline ingenuity and initiative quickly turns to fake enemy propaganda.

AFU also continues to take particularly large losses here because the Russian airforce is using the largest of its bombs in this sector, reportedly sending 1500kg Fabs to the right bank many times a day.

👉 Ukrainian post

On the left bank of the Kherson region and on the islands, raiding operations continue, as well as the maintenance of certain mini-bridges that were formed earlier.

New small bridgeheads are still being formed. There is partial success. But you have to get a foothold!

We pay a high price for this, remember!

***

The last thing to mention is an interesting development in the northern front. Amidst renewed Russian advances in the Kharkov sector, there are new rumors that point to a potential second major front opening up.

Firstly, AFU accounts confirm Russia has been capturing new land in the Kupyansk direction:

Ukrainian accounts continue to report horrors in that direction, like the relatives of the 32nd outing Ukrainian brigade commander as having cremated many of the ‘missing’:

Now getting to the rumors. Firstly, more and more DRG battles are being reported on the Kharkov border, and interestingly, one Russian report claims Ukraine was now using 14-15 year old boys as soldiers:

Gennady Alekhin spoke about the situation in the Kharkov direction :

Yesterday in the Shebekinsky urban district, in the settlement of Novaya Tavolzhanka, which is located on the border with the Kharkov region, with the Volchansky district. It lasted several hours; the enemy, using sabotage and reconnaissance groups, tried to penetrate some areas located on our territory.

The enemy suffered losses. By eight in the morning the battle had died down and there were no casualties on our side.

Another very interesting touch to yesterday’s battle is that the Armed Forces use 14-15 year old boys.

At this point our intelligence officers called them the Hitler Youth. ATVs, driven by a teenager, a mortar is attached to these ATVs, they drive up as close to the border as possible, they fired several, fired mortar shots and tried to leave.

In general, judging by the Kharkov direction over the past 24 hours, our artillery and missile launchers carried out quite powerful fire strikes on military targets in the city of Kharkov, its suburbs, as well as settlements where the movement and accumulation of enemy personnel and equipment was noticed.

In Sumy region there is heightened DRG activity as well:

And now, one report claims Russia has deployed a group of 19,000 men on the northern border of Ukraine, equipped with many tanks and heavy armor and rocket systems of all types:

Ukrainian source: The Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Naev, named the number of the Russian Armed Forces on the northern border.

According to him, Russia has deployed a group of troops with a total number of about 19 thousand people, armed with tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery and rocket systems, air defense systems and operational-tactical missile systems.

At the same time, there are no signs of the formation of strike force groups that can carry out an offensive to the north. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to monitor the situation.

However, they conclude this is not a ‘strike group’ that can yet carry out an offensive. However other reports claim there are up to 90k in Belgorod:

Furthermore, new reports have stated that Russia has almost no troops of any kind left in Belarus.

The reason these are interesting updates is that it narrows down the potentialities for a future northern front. We used to speculate whether Russia might open a front onto Kiev, which would necessarily have to come from Belarus. But if they have moved everything out and instead placed it in Belgorod, coupled with the heightened activity on the border, which includes a lot of recent Russian artillery strikes from across the border, we’re led to conclude there’s a potential vector from Belgorod region down into Kharkov.

Given the fact that Russia is ramping up operations in Kharkov slowly, I could see a potential incursion of a new front with the sole purpose of supporting the Kupyansk direction by way of a second pincer to pressure retreating Ukrainian forces from the rear.

Here’s a map of roughly what Russian control looked like at one point last year when they retreated from most of Kharkov region; Kharkov and Kupyansk are circled for reference:

This is the type of troop disposition I can see happening in a new incursion. This is to specifically differentiate it from one where they encircle Kharkov city itself, because that’s not necessary for the current operational objectives.

The most important thing right now is to alleviate the Kupyansk-oriented forces, as well as to establish a bridgehead toward Balakleya, Izyum, onward to Slovyansk once again, as they had at one point.

Thus, if it is true that Russia is gathering a force for a possible new front, then I don’t see them opening that front from north of Kharkov but rather a bit east near Volchansk area:

By opening the front on the series of roads represented by the red lines on the right above, they can pincer AFU’s Kupyansk forces from both sides of the Oskil River without having to needlessly fight Kharkov city battles on the outskirts of the city or on its very outer ring road. From there, they can develop the line down to Balakleya and Izyum once more, as this is the only realistic way of ever hoping to capture the major Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomerate—from both sides.

We’ll keep an eye on this direction to see if Russia continues gathering forces here. But although I don’t necessarily see it as a likely vector anytime soon, I do think it militarily and strategically makes far more sense to come in this way rather than trying to capture Kupyansk exclusively from one direction. It will come down to how many available troops Russia actually has to commit to such an operation, but it is interesting and noteworthy that there’s such an amount starting to build there.

***

The last major topic to comment on is the Palestine situation, which continues to develop. There is a lot of scrambling around behind the scenes as powers shake and move and jockey for position in what could soon be an explosive powder keg to reshape the international scene.

Presently, the IDF claims to be finally ready to pull the trigger on the Gaza invasion but there’s indication the U.S. is desperately trying to pull them back from the brink. One of the ways they appear to be trying to talk Israel down from the ledge is floating the idea of convincing a coalition of Arab states to pressure Palestine into some kind of “interim government” which would be entirely free of Hamas influence:

https://www.rt.com/news/585464-us-israel-mulling-interim-government-gaza/

After only a couple weeks, Israel is already reporting major military shortages:

🇮🇱Israeli media: 12 days after the start of the war: Fighters are still reporting a shortage of medical equipment and weapons.

It’s a testament to how unexceptional Russia’s own mobilization problems truly were last year, proving every nation would suffer from the same issues.

Meanwhile, the threats continue to grow as Turkish nationalist party leader says Turkey will step in if Israel doesn’t stop bombing Gaza:

Most interesting is that Lavrov arrived in Tehran:

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At the same time that Russian Colonel-General Alexander Fomin met with the Iraqi ambassador in Moscow:

Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation Colonel General Alexander Fomin met with Ambassador of the Republic of Iraq to the Russian Federation Qahtan Janabi in Moscow.

During the talks, the sides discussed topical issues of bilateral cooperation in the field of defense and the fight against terrorism. The sides also exchanged views on the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The meeting was held in a friendly atmosphere and confirmed the intention to further develop Russian-Iraqi cooperation in these areas.

The reason this is of particular interest is because the U.S. has now been subject to major attacks on many of its bases across the region of the Middle East, with the Iraqi Islamic Resistance taking credit for one of the attacks:

🇮🇶🇸🇾💥🇺🇸A statement issued by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq:

💬 "In the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful

“Permission has been given to those who fight because they have been wronged, and indeed, God is Able to grant them victory.”

The Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted the American occupation base, “Kharab al-Jir,” in northeastern Syria, with a missile salvo, hitting its targets directly.

Islamic resistance in Iraq

Wednesday - 9 Rabi’ al-Akhir 1445 AH"

The attacks are much worse than reported, as they are now acknowledging over two dozen U.S. soldiers were injured:

In fact one contractor even died from a heart attack while hiding in one of the attacks.

Most revealing is the fact that in each attack, the U.S. air defense proved to be of marginal efficacy—and these are minor strikes of only a few drones at a time. For instance, here’s footage of the vaunted C-Ram perimeter defense trying to shoot down rockets toward a U.S. base days ago, reportedly succeeding in downing only one of the rockets.

But in general, given these high level meetings between Russia and Iran-Iraq, and the new attacks on U.S. bases, one can’t help the sense that there are blocs and factions forming in what may break out to be a major powder keg if Israel opens up Pandora’s box.

Now there’s news that the U.S. is rushing in its most advanced high altitude THAAD air defense to the region.

The full post:

According to U.S. Defense Officials, the Army is currently Scrambling to Deploy at least 12 Air Defense Systems to the multiple Countries across the Middle East before the Israeli Invasion of the Gaza Strip is set to soon begin; a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Battery for use against Ballistic Missiles is currently on its way to Saudi Arabia from Fort Bliss, Texas, while at least 11 MIM-104 Patriot Surface-to-Air Missile Systems from both Fort Liberty, North Carolina and Fort Sill, Oklahoma are heading to Locations in Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Word is that this is specifically to create a shield for potential Iranian ballistic missiles which are now expected to rain down on Israel should things kick off.

Furthermore, WaPo is now reporting that U.S. has a ‘worst case scenario’ plan to evacuate Americans from literally the entire Middle East:

The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility that hundreds of thousands of American citizens will require evacuation from the Middle East if the bloodshed in Gaza cannot be contained, according to four officials familiar with the U.S. government’s contingency planning.

Many experts continue to warn that Israel is stepping into a trap:

https://www.rt.com/news/585361-israel-gaza-mogadishu-steroids/

With Hamas itself now openly goading Israel to enter Gaza by releasing the following graphic:

And things heat up even more with the rumor that Russia is now granting Iran direct access to land in Russia’s Khmeimim Syria base, after Israel recently bombed and disabled runways in both Damascus and Aleppo international airports.

Sources stating that Russia will begin allowing Iran to land its planes in Khmeimim air base in Northern Syria to avoid Israeli bombing of shipments.

In somewhat related news, recall that Russia just recently again conducted some final tests on the Burevestnik missile, which no country on the world has an analog of. It’s a missile that has unlimited range due to using nuclear powered propulsion. That makes it unstoppable as it’s capable of flying virtually forever, which allows it to circumnavigate the entire globe in avoiding any air defense coverage zones.

This has apparently caused a panic in U.S. military echelons, causing them to rush toward creating new air defense zones in unforeseen areas:

https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2023/10/air-force-scouting-thousands-acres-build-radars-spot-cruise-missiles/391403/

You see, previously, all missile types, due to the limitations of their propulsion, had known, prefigured routes which could be covered with a series of air defense and radar installations at key strategic locations, like this one at the northernmost tip of Alaska.

But the new Russian missile nullifies them all because it can come from anywhere, as it has no limits. It can fly over the south pole if it has to and come up from somewhere near Mexico, where U.S. has no radar installations of any kind, in order to strike.

So apparently now the U.S. is scrambling to build more over-the-horizon mega radars in a bid to keep up with Russian advancements.

To give you an idea why this missile is deadly. Recall how the U.S. has very few production facilities for key military items, whether it’s the 1 production line for 155mm shells, or the 1 tank plant, 1 explosives manufacturer which burned down, but was being restored.

So now imagine a stealthy missile that can fly forever, avoiding the perimeters of all known radars, and thus infiltrate into the interior of the U.S. where it can hit any of those key American manufacturing facilities. That one weapon puts U.S.’s entire war fighting capability in check as it can completely lock down America’s ability to manufacture key weapons systems.

But getting back—one key aspect of the upcoming potential Israel conflagration is that even Israeli commanders have openly stated the Gaza operation is slated for up to 3 months. Meaning, that is the minimal time scale they themselves acknowledge the major operation will take. Realistically of course it can take far more than that and turn into an indefinite embroilment, as many are now suspecting.

But even if it were to hypothetically last those 3 months, that already creates a catastrophic situation for Ukraine given that all allied shells will be going to Israel for that time period and likely even afterwards to replenish their stocks.

The spring counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a big question. In a month, the entire Ukrainian army may be covered by a shell famine, since even Germany will now send all its 155-mm shells to Israel.

Most of the 155-mm shells from the United States and other high-precision weapons will also go there: SAM missiles, Excalibur shells. Ukraine does not produce its own projectiles and is completely dependent on external supplies.

One can imagine that if the Israeli war gets bogged down into next year, then Ukraine will be in a disastrous situation this winter and may face total collapse by early next year.

Problems are already being reported:

⚡️⚡️⚡️☝️The Ukrainian channel “Resident” writes about the bullet famine of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

“Our source in the OP confirmed Western media information that Zelensky was informed about the reduction in ammunition supplies and even raised the issue at the headquarters. For now, the decision has been made to save the shells and use them timely, in more exposed positions, which is why the counteroffensive on the flanks of Bakhmut and in the Zaporozhye direction."

It stands to reason this may be one of the chief motivations behind the U.S.’s desperate exhortations toward Israel to not go through with the war—because U.S. knows they can’t sustain both fronts and would face total loss in Ukraine.

But the problem for Israel is now intractable: even if they were to stop, the damage that they’ve already done onto Palestine will only magnify the Hamas ideology, making Hamas even more potent and numerous from this point forward. Thus, Israel finds itself in a lose-lose situation to many extents.

***

Lastly, some sundry updates.

A company commander of the 80th brigade of the AFU complains that Ukraine is running out of fighting men:

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One must recall that Ukraine itself is supposed to have a presidential election early next year, which the U.S. is holding as a trump card in potentially removing Zelensky if they must. Some ask, why doesn’t Ukraine do full societal mobilization yet? There’s your reason. If they do it now, it would be an admission on Zelensky’s part that the war is being lost. People will ask—why do you suddenly need hundreds of thousands of emergency troops if we’re supposedly “winning”?

This can lead to grave political consequences. Recall that many people in Kiev don’t even follow the war and just get snippets of propaganda news that Ukraine is winning, as a recent video proved which showed people in Kiev on the street not even knowing what happened in Mariupol/Azovstal, etc.

On that note, an interesting survey has made the rounds. It shows that in early February this year, 2023, 22% of Ukrainians believed Russia had a chance while a massive 67% believed Russia is running out of resources and that Ukraine would effectively be able to win the war in the future. However in October, 2023, the numbers are now looking increasingly dismal, with only 43% of Ukrainians believing victory is possible with 49% believing that Russia can keep fighting for many years:

Given that the percentage dropped by over 20% in 8 months, we can say that by middle of next year, if the war is still on, likely only 20% of Ukrainians will continue to have any hope.

Additionally, a new video from Azov battalion co-founder Andriy Biletsky sees him giving a fairly depressing evaluation of current circumstances as well:

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For those that prefer to read the summary of his statements:

The leader of the" Tag " Biletsky, released a couple of days ago an hour and a half interview in which he told a lot of interesting things.

The first thing he said was that the war against Russia would be long and hard for Ukraine. He did not even begin to predict the outcome of the war, as it is already clear to everyone.

First, the Russian army does not depend on external supplies, like Ukraine, whose offensive cycle will always be at the whim of the West: given - not given. Russia builds its own planes, tanks, artillery systems and the entire range of ammunition. Moreover, increasing and developing production in all areas.

Secondly, despite the superiority of NATO intelligence over Russia. At the operational and tactical level, Russia is a cut above Ukraine in intelligence, primarily due to the cheap Orlan UAVs. These drones are a big and unsolvable problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "Eagles" always hang in the air, detect the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, columns, conduct reconnaissance and fire correction. There are a lot of them and it is unprofitable to shoot them down by the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Third: the Russian Aerospace Forces. If at the beginning of the war our planes had to enter the enemy's air defense zone, now thanks to controlled modules on bombs, high-precision strikes can be made outside the air defense zone.
Even if Ukraine gets 50 or 100 F-16s, Russia has more planes and more air defense capabilities.

Fourth. The quality of soldiers in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is growing, while that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is falling. In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, recruitment is forced, preparation is poor and fast. Russia's military training has improved since the mobilization, and the quality of personnel is growing.

The two most important points he makes:

He correctly assesses that NATO’s ISR capabilities are superior to that of Russia in the grand operational sense of satellite and overall battlefield intelligence as Russia simply can’t compete with the full berth of the combined NATO/5-Eyes assets.

But what most people, particularly rabid pro-Ukrainian supporters, miss is the nuance that on the tactical battlefield level, Russia’s ISR is in fact superior—a point I’ve made many times before. The localized shorter range systems Russia has are simply better and more numerous, as is the doctrinal and professional capabilities of the Russian intelligence, scout, and signal forces.

In particular he names the little engine that could—the Orlan drone as the most dangerous threat. Interestingly this is the drone everyone made fun of but that I once declared as inarguably being “the single most successful combat drone in the history of warfare” as of now. That’s because the total amount of assets destroyed with the facilitation of the Orlan now exceeds that of any military drone in history. A few hundred targets, civilians, Afghan weddings destroyed by Predators/Reapers pales in comparison to the literal tens of thousands of objects now destroyed as a result of the Orlan’s intelligence gathering.

It’s another in a long line of examples of the Russian way of war, cheap, flexible, and versatile systems which aren’t flashy but are highly effective.

The last point is so important I’ll paste it again:

Fourth. The quality of soldiers in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is growing, while that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is falling. In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, recruitment is forced, preparation is poor and fast. Russia's military training has improved since the mobilization, and the quality of personnel is growing.

This is backed up by a number of recent reports and opinions, such as the following:

The mobilization reserves of Ukraine and Russia are not comparable. In Ukraine, there is an incessant mobilization with almost complete absence of volunteers, as it was in the first weeks of the war. New recruits have to be tracked down and caught by force, using the police, military and SBU.

At the same time, in Russia, since the beginning of 2023, 357 thousand more people have been accepted into the ranks of the armed forces within the framework of the Free Trade Zone. Russia draws primarily on its motivated and qualified human resources. If this continues, in the long run, not only the quality of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will fall, but also their number, which can no longer exceed more than 800 thousand people.

Read that again, Russia recruits motivated and qualified human resources. Ukraine is recruiting nothing but the reluctant and disabled dregs.

Another, from a Ukrainian account this time:

Translation: they foresee a very harsh winter as the now highly trained Russian mobilized will be in action, who have been doing nothing but training in the rear areas for over a year.

Another:

⚡️⚡️⚡️☝️There are no positive scenarios for Ukraine" - Ukrainian channel "The Woman with the Braid":

“There were rumors on the sidelines that Western think tanks predicted the development of the Ukrainian crisis 3 years in advance.

The result is negative.

In the worst case scenario, Ukraine will be cut off according to the Yugoslavian scenario.

At best, Ukraine will completely lose Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporozhye with the Kherson region along the Dnieper. But Kiev will have to recognize these territories as the Russian Federation.

There are no more positive scenarios for Ukraine. Either there is a bad one or even worse.

It was necessary to negotiate after the Kharkov and Kherson operations. Then more could be taken and many could be saved.

Most importantly, it was necessary to implement the Minsk agreements, so all this would not have happened. "

If I knew about purchasing, I would live in Sochi⚡️⚡️⚡️

In fact, Ukrainian Rezident channel claims Zelensky is furious at Biden’s egregious $100B aid package because it’s too large as to be realistic and appears more a deliberate virtue signal or token attempt at help:

Ukrainian channel Rezident: Our source in the Office of the President said that the Office of the President considers the actions of the Biden Administration destructive regarding financial support for Ukraine for 2024. Instead of a realistic relief package for our country, the White House is asking for record amounts that will definitely be blocked by the Republicans. All these actions are aimed at disrupting financial and military assistance to Ukraine in order to agree with the Kremlin to freeze the conflict in our country along the front line.

Next:

Russia’s new anti-drone Volnorez jammers are being rolled out more and more onto armored vehicles, listen below:

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Next:

A new calculation finds that almost the entire cadre of former AFU participants in the ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation—one of the names Ukraine gave to the Donbass “war” prior to the start of the SMO) as well as professional soldiers has been destroyed, leaving the AFU with nothing but untrained conscripts and green cannon-fodder:

☝️There is practically nothing left of the personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: the denazification of ATO soldiers continues

At the beginning of the SVO, the Ukrainian Armed Forces numbered just over 260 thousand people, of which 78 thousand took part in the so-called ATO. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Kiev regime carried out several waves of mobilization, as a result of which, according to some estimates, up to one million people were mobilized.

In its calculations, UKROPSKY FRESH is based on Zelensky's official statement that more than 700 thousand people currently serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Taking into account the fact that after a year and a half of war there was practically nothing left of the cadre army, we take into account the average figure according to which only 30% of cadre personnel remained in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which since At the beginning of the day, 52 thousand people took part in battles with the Russian army. As for the ATO officers, here we also take the average figure of 30%, which was before the start of the SVO: 15,600 people.

It turns out that of the total number of the Ukrainian army, the number of career servicemen is only 7.43%. There are even fewer ATO officers: 2.23%.

What do we see? Most of the Donbass punitive forces, which destroyed the civilian population of the LPR and DPR before the start of the Northern Military District, were destroyed. There are practically no professional ATO officers left - almost all of them were liquidated during a year and a half of war.

The denazification of Ukraine continues☄️☄️☄️

Next:

Today Russia repelled massive saturation strikes on Crimea, which came in the form of Ukrainian Grom-2 ballistic missiles, re-purposed S-200s, and likely much more:

🇷🇺❌🇺🇦🚀 💬 "In the last hour, the enemy launched a major missile attack on Crimea and the Azov region. At least 10-15 missiles were launched, including converted S-200s.

Five missiles were shot down over the territory of the Kherson region alone: three in the Kakhovsky district and two in the Genichesk district. The air defense worked perfectly,” Vladimir Saldo, governor of Kherson.

🇷🇺❌🇺🇦🚀 The following were shot down:

➡️North of Crimea 2 missiles;

➡️Henicheskiy area 2 missiles;

➡️Melitopol 2 missiles;

➡️Berdyansk region 2 missiles;

➡️Sevastopol 1 missile;

➡️Kakhovsky district 3 missiles. In the Kakhovsky region, a downed missile may explode on the ground.

Most interesting is that Russia shot down everything, without a single loss. This just goes to show that such feats become ‘status quo’, and no one remembers how flawlessly Russian AD performs until Ukraine gets another “lucky hit” a month or two from now, and then certain people cry and whinge about how putatively “poor” Russian air defense is.

On that note, a new report says Russian AD operators are already registering the new ATACMS as I said they would:

According to one of the commanders of the air defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, they are learning to shoot down "ATACMS".

I.e. Creation of countermeasures, operational algorithms, study of trajectories, maneuvering and flight speed, monitoring of practical launches.

The crews of the air defense systems of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have already received the first information about the missiles.

Next:

Famed DPR fighter Alexander “Babai” Mozhayev died on the Zaporozhye front on October 19th. I had no idea he was even still fighting, as he seemed to have disappeared years ago. He came to fame during the 2014 seizure of Crimea as his striking visage captured the imaginations of Western audiences:

That being said, the Ukrainian side always claimed he was a dangerous criminal ex-con who only joined the militia to escape a life of crime. Either way, R.I.P. His fearsome Cossack image will always represent those early tumultuous but hopeful days of the newborn republics of Novorossiya. And it’s just another one of the last legendary figures from those days to fall, joining Mozgovoy, Motorola, Givi, Zakharchenko, and several other memorable names, of which very few now remain.

I’ll leave you with this foreboding new whirlwind of a screed from Dmitry Medvedev:

💬 “The world, led by the United States, continues to slide into the deepest abyss. Decisions are made that clearly indicate not only the irreversible mental disorder of their carriers, but also the loss of the remnants of conscience. The decisions are significant and small, but clearly scream about the illness of the entire society.

1. Biden called money that should be spent on the death of other people far from the United States a “smart investment.” We are talking about the acquisition of additional weapons worth tens of billions for Ukraine and Israel.

2. The Kiev regime decided to ban the UOC, cutting off the Orthodox from the cradle of the mother church.

3. The French Interior Minister has no hesitation in condemning a famous football player for his posts in support of Palestine.

The news varies, but it indicates an accelerated rotting of the very fabric of Western society.

Investing in the death of unnecessary people is smart and good. There are no words here. This is beyond good and evil. And this is not just the dementia of an old fool, but the whole philosophy of their state life over the centuries.

The ban on the original church in Little Russia is a dirty policy, heavily mixed with cocaine and Satanism. After all, Zelensky is not just a degenerate without a family or tribe. Not just a mankurt who has forgotten both his own and other people’s history. He is a Frankenstein clown, shaking with lust for power, created for the amusement of customers and ready to give them not only his body for carnal pleasures, but also to easily destroy Christianity in his native land.

And third. Going beyond the buoys of an ideological trend is already directly punishable in the West. You can express condolences to Israelis, but not to Palestinians. You shouldn't feel sorry for them. They are all like terrorists there and let them die by the thousands. Children, women, old people are simply consumables.

The result of such statements is obvious.

The intifada will last forever.

The Church will be reborn, but through the blood and suffering of the civil war.

And the quantity of weapons supplied will sooner or later turn into quality. High-explosive fragmentation, cumulative, incendiary and volumetric detonating charges will turn into nuclear charges...”

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