Watching UN members turn their backs on usa speaker was impressive . It went from Nikki Haley saying we are taking names and counting vote to usa being ignored
You know why? Israel is similar to an Usraeli family leaving a perfectly good home accross town and showing up in the Middle East neighborhood to kick in the door of the Palestinian home and kill half of them and imprison the rest in the house basement.
So one day the Palestinians living in the depressive basement breakbout and kick the door of their own house kill some Israelis and return to the basement, calling for the Israelis to come and get them.
The Israelis are surprised and angry that the Palestinians didn't knock and wait for permission to enter. It only means one thing, trouble in the neighborhood.
This leaves the rest of the neighbors uneasy, tired and resentful of the criminality of Israelis.
I've done reading, looks like Simplicius playing it safe this time by giving Israeli 20% part of the article. Well. Not much happening lately in Gaza Front.
War in Gaza must stop and Ordinary Israeli should make arrest of Netanyahu and his cronies, then ship all Zionist and Ultra Nationalist, the main culprits behind every disaster in Palestine all this time, send them back to where they were from, it will left 7 - 8 Millions people who can still assimilated and live normally among their neighbors.
But don't worry, it won't happen and this war will only escalate because Netanyahu government cared so much about fulfilling Talmudic prophecy.
For those who wish to learn more about the Fundamentalist Zionist gripping Israel, you may want to watch this video of Alaster Crooke explain the situation on the Durant.
The Israeli economy basically grinds to a complete halt when they mobilize. They cannot stay mobilized for long; in 1967 Nasser had been massing troops in Sinai for a month forcing Israel to keep itself mobilized. Israel basically had to attack or demobilize; to stay mobilized would have mean economic ruin. That might be a strategy here. If Hamas and Hizbollah can keep a threatening enough posture Israel maybe forced to act (one way or another) in a diplomatically disastrous way or face economic collapse. How much and how long would the US be willing and able to foot the bill for the Israeli economy?
Utter rubbish. Israel now has 3x the population of 1967 and a high tech economy that is unaffected by the war or the relatively small (in terms of total reserves of over 2M) call up.
Andrew, calling out 400,000 reservists must leave 400,000 jobs needing manpower and deliveries unmet. Furthermore, fuel, Nitrate based products and food are diverted to the war effort instead of industry. Furthermore, if the Arabs go with an Israeli specific oil embargo, that should have a negative impact.
The days of Israel waging the American Dog are over. A new infusion of aid from the US is not what will float the Israeli economy for long.
This is minor and is more than made up for by volunteering and people being much more motivated to help others and the country.
Israel doesn't get oil from Arab countries and is a major gas producer.
An oil embargo won't affect it and a gas embargo will make Israel's own gas more valuable.
The EU might suffer but neither Israel nor the USA will. It is not 1973.
Reservists eat the same whether called up or not and drive cars or tanks the same too. The war does not affect food or fuel usage. Distances are very short. Not much fuel needed to go into Gaza or Lebanon.
Israel is a major producer of nitrates so can make plenty of its own ammunition.
Israel is quite capable of destroying Hamas and Hizbollah in a long war.
"Israel is a major producer of Nitrates", not if the Amonia tanks in Haifa are blown up.
Furthermore, an oil embargo specific to Israel, will only affect Israel. Israel is not energy sufficient.
It's population is fleeing and once this war is over, Israel's civil war will begin.
An attack on Israel will be targeted to destroy its industries not its army alone.
Andrew, realize Israel is diminished at least if it is lucky enough to be allowed by the Far Right, back to 1967 borders.. It is surrounded economically, militarily and morally. Israel is in a bad place.
Indulge your inaccurate fantasy (Haifa tank closed and moved, Israel is net energy exporter and hugely moved to electric cars powered by indigenous gas) as much as you like, but understand that if anything remotely like you forecast would come to pass then all Israel's enemies would disappear in nuclear fire.
Ask yourself the simple question - If Israel nukes Lebanon or Iran or any other country that makes itself an enemy, who is going to risk being nuked themselves to avenge them?
The reality is that Israel is the only nuclear armed country that could, in extremis, use nuclear weapons without its enemies having any means of retaliation.
I go back to my broad strategic analysis - Who is actually willing to risk their national interests to support terrorists. Only Iran.
Now you are getting angry and invoking the Samson option. Isn't that a two way street with little Israel in the middle and a biblical backlash against world Jewery for Zionist madness, with only a radio active land to be banished to.
Zionists of today or the 13th tribe of yesterday is always hurting their neighbors and sacrificing Torah Jews.
It has happened before a 100 times.
Here is a positive take. The Zionost Bankers have depopulated Ukraine, why doesn't Israel move to Ukraine?
I am sure it can continue its centers of high tech and organ harvesting.
A rookie mistake. The number of employed people in Israel is 4.3 mil (out of 9.3). That means about 8% of workforce.
> Reservists eat the same whether called up or not and drive cars or tanks the same too. The war does not affect food or fuel usage.
Are you saying a tank eats up the same amount of fuel as a car?
> Israel is a major producer of nitrates so can make plenty of its own ammunition.
> Israel is quite capable of destroying Hamas and Hizbollah in a long war.
Gee, I wonder why they're already asking for 10$ bil from the US and planes with ammo are already flying into Israel. And they haven't even started the proper fighting yet.
I think it's much worse actually. Out of 9.45 milion total population, 1.3 milion are ultra-Orthodox Jews who do not work nor they join the army. Also you have 2 million Arab Israelis who are exempt from the military service, which leaves you at around 6 million. So 360k out of 6M population is 16%. Also since I have family in Israel I can confirm that pretty much all army liable men unred the age of 40 are conscripted now. They didn't call up on women that I know of. These men that I know are actually IT engineers and very productive members of the economy. Their absence will definitely be felt.
I've always been amazed that the Israeli "ultra orthodox" minority are given a pass on productive labor and military service in Israel- Yet are still allowed to vote?
How did their society develop to allow such a dead weight?
How many times do we have to say that figures means sh*?
Kiev boasted about 1 million recruits for its 6th mobilisation. Who believes it one second ?
300 k means sh*.
IDF has never been weaker. Almost half of its forces consists in Tik bait women. Some reservists are ruining their barracks into dust (see on X) to oppose their dispatch there.
If officers in 2006 complained about having to buy their own equipment and reservists were crying next to their tanks, who would believe that things would be different now ?
This is one thing about Israeli men, they seem to weep a lot. I weep, only when I see mangled bodies of children, but other than that, most guys don't.
Furthermore. the plants are EXTREMELY expensive and complex.
There's a new plant in Pennwell, Texas to take advantage of Permian gas - it cost $7b. Dubai has a couple that cost $18B and $1B, respectively and there are a couple in Malaysia and in South Africa. That's about it for large scale plants.
Israel does not have one nor are there any plans that anybody is aware of.
Even if they did, the price for the resulting gasoline would be exorbitant.
I know this because I literally just created a company around a tech that will displace the Fischer Tropsch technology because it is both more energy efficient and far, far less capital cost.
You are dreaming Andrew ........ and the IDF knows it. They are in big trouble, their bluff has been called and they failed the test. So now they wait for the inevitable and it is inevitable.
Then why has Hezbollah defeated Israel in two wars in Lebanon? Israel has only 7+million jews and a low birthrate..It can't afford big losses, and jewish women should not be in the military, they should be having babies....
Hezbollah would also be supported and reinforced by the whole moslem world at this point, possibly including the ferocious Chechens...It's a fool's errand to engage in a war against Hezbollah on its home ground, and I doubt that Bibi is that dumb....
You're right. Israel has possibly the weirdest laws on the planet concerning who has to serve and who has is on the mandatory call-up list. On one hand, 20-year-old girls who clearly have no enthusiasm for fighting are mandated to serve while on the other hand, 40-year-old men in perfect health who are hardcore anti-Palestinian zealots are exempted on religious grounds, even as they cheer on the fighting.
Likewise, ethnic Druze men can be conscripted, but ethnic Bedouin not. And don't even get me started on the weird rules surrounding Circassians :))
Long story short: Israel doesn't have enough "spare people" around to staff a full-time military operation without seriously disrupting local businesses, and huge sections of the adult population are exempt from military duty.
Huge weakness of the Israeli state that they have subgroups that are considered unfit for military service. Either through questionable loyalty or unwillingness to serve.
Reminds me of the old Union of South Africa or Rhodesia in certain ways, though less extreme. Does not bode well long term.
Nasser had only one division in Sinai. This is not true. Egypt was not planning an attack on Israel, Egypt had only one division in Sinai. This was another Zionist lie to garner misinformed Western support and to perpetuate the myth of the brave Davidian Israeli Army.
The settlers and religious nutters in Israel want to build a temple on the site of the al Aqsa Mosque. Cuz the thousand year old fables told me so... Not all of the Muslim World is in love with Hamas but when the Zionists berserkers start going after the al Aqsa Mosque, all hell will break loose. It will make the battle for Hue and the 1968 Tet Offensive look like a church ice cream social. I see dead people...
It's very unfortunate that the exact same location was where the 2nd Temple was, and the al-Aqsa Mosque, and the headquarters of the Knights Templar. That said, it was Muslim policy to take the largest house of worship in a conquered city and make it into a mosque. While Muslims were generally tolerant of Christian and Jewish houses of worship, none could overtop the biggest mosque in the city. Look, for instance, at the Haghia Sophia in Constantinople. The Crusaders chose the Temple Mount as their headquarters purposefully, also.
Radioactive waste, preventing everyone and anyone from ever inhabiting the location, would probably be a net positive for peace.
The war in Israel is no more than an insurgency operation, on a strip of land too small to offer any cover to the insurgents, or even any of the kind of problems the Americans faced during the occupation of Iraq.
The war in the Ukraine is a couple of orders of magnitude larger in scale, its effects will have way more consequence on human destinies, and is much more significant/interesting to survey from a military point of view.
Yeah but. Pax Americana must come to an end and Pax Judaica still must come to take place. Interestingly, I stumble upon this phrase;
Signs of the End of the Age
5 For many will come in My name, claiming, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many. 6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. These things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places.… Mathew 24:6
I compared the current situation to the Insurgency in Iraq
With the difference that in Iraq there was a rear to fall back on. In Gaza Hamas has its back against the sea. The conflict basically starts off as a last stand of the weaker force. Much more akin to a miniature Berlin '45 than Stalingrad
Except Israel's IDF is neither the Allied/American nor the Soviet armies, or even either of the two. While I would not call it ragtag, it is a far cry from Wagner assaulting Artemovsk, nor do I believe Israeli society can withstand 10,000 dead troops even if they killed 100,000 Hamas fighters. In reality, the number could easily be multiples higher.
The population of Israel's Jews is comparable to the population of Palestinians; while the population of Israel's Jews is only maybe 2.5x of Gaza alone.
So no, can't say that your analogy works at all.
Whatever Hamas' official numbers were before last week, I guarantee that there will be a lot more people fighting now since they have nowhere to go.
Nor is the Israel hope of starving/thirsting the population into surrender, going to work either. It is abundantly clear that the Muslim world is not going to let that happen.
I would think 10k casualties could be absorbed, but I also think that the willingness of cushy youth in the US to serve in IDF will be blunted in that scenario. It might not mean defeat now, but it could lead to it 10 years from now when recruitment is anemic.
It is less clear to me. As another poster wrote about the exceptions for Hasids and other members of the Misrahi such that there would be a disproportionate distribution of casualties among the far smaller families in the Ashkenazi.
A few hundred is one thing, 10,000 is something else particularly if the "problem" isn't fully resolved. Which I think would be highly unlikely.
These are the kind of people I am familiar with - the NYC based Ashkenazi who are willing to send their kids back to serve in IDF. I can easily see them being afflicted by the Vietnam disease that all the people around them have in regards serving in the US military.
Employing time and acting methodically makes perfect sense for Israel. Surprise isn't an element in the op and, yes, they need to have resources organized to be prepared to respond on multiple fronts. Hamas isn't going to be slaying any more civilians in the meantime, aside possibly from the people they kidnapped. And provided they can't be resupplied Hamas' ability to resist will diminish with time. Israel is no doubt further degrading Hamas' personnel, logistics, comms, mobility, etc. with ongoing Gaza strikes in the meantime. While Hamas should be expected to engage (this time facing highly motivated geared up professional soldiers not surprised, defenseless civilians) they will enter any fight weakened with fatigue, short supplies, degraded comms, a broken command chain, etc. Prediction...the op will take time and come with costs but Hamas' isolated remainder will ultimately succumb in their untenable position.
I don't know, but wonder, if Israel couldn't simply cut Hamas off in Northern Gaza and wait as their water, food, fuel, etc. run out, while allowing noncombatants to move to the south after being screened (tragic that even Egypt and Jordan are rejecting entry of Palestinians from Gaza). They already have two sides of the perimeter secured and another is the sea. Establish a robust perimeter to the south, excavating and destroying any tunnels crossing the perimeter. Holding the perimeter would require fewer resources and cost fewer lives, perhaps very few. Let time and failing resources do the work.
As the direct result of Israeli war crimes including knowingly bombing hospitals and residences. Context is important, but yes, you're right. Hamas is likely back on their heels at the moment - understandably so.
The bombing of the hospital has now been proven a fake - the Moslems dropped their own rocket on their own car park. Lied about the number of dead. Think the ZNP in the Ukrainian lie machine.
Neither Hamas nor the murderous authoritarians in Kiev are going to win a real fight with manipulative nonsense rhetoric and narratives, no matter how much MSM aids and abets.
Attempted deception about the hospital (actually the hospital parking lot, inadvertently bombed by Hamas) proved particularly idiotic after being exposed by nothing more than the light of day.
The USA can threaten Lebanon's civilians as hostages to Hezbollah, but those fleets in the Med are sitting ducks if it really kicks off. Iran and KSA have already arranged to cut the oil supply, and there is SWEET FUCK ALL the USA can do about that.
Iran is prepared, and likely moving anti-ship assets rapidly towards Syria. The iron dome ran out of rockets in 6hrs against coke-bottles filled with flour - it will be useless against 20,000+ of the latest military grade missiles.
The Global South is lining up to demand the 2 State solution, and the USA cannot stop this avalanche.
All the Israelis can do is bomb civilians from the air, as they are so used to doing, but it will change *nothing*.
Except make them liable for war crimes tribunals.
Hamas has won. But I'm not surprised you Zionazis are still in denial. Nazis usually end up in bunkers with their fingers in their ears.
Of course the west can start pumping oil and gas. And personally I would demolish the mosque brick by bloody brick in retaliation for any cheek from anywhere.
If the Israelites don’t do this and fail, they will have failed because they are too kind and weak - not because they are too aggressive and strong.
Israel's biggest problem has always been being too kind and not using its full power for humanitarian reasons and to be liked (even though this is pointless and impossible with so many anti-semites).
Now Israel is at least untying one arm from behind its back.
Most Israeli's now feel that both hands should be untied.
LMFAO - you think the MSM is on Hamas' side? For fuck's sake bro. Here's what went down:
Ukronazi bullies attacked Little Brother civilians who had a much tougher Big Brother right next door and are learning the hard lessons. They did all the attacking and bullying for 8 years or more with USNATO help.
Zionazi wannabe bullies with a distant big brother attacked an imprisoned, impoverished, blockaded, controlled population of little brothers without a regional or any other big brother as nearby as Russia. And Zionazis are STILL possibly going to lose this fight without help from USA big broth...I mean parasitically controlled USA.
MSM aids and abets Hamas? That's like saying MSM aids and abets Russia, but with the added disclaimer that Russia has never attacked any American ally, no matter how shitty of an ally that might be.
Point being: Little brothers without Big Brothers in the nearby immediate vicinity
I think his comment was light on context. I noticed that yesterday (Wed. October 18) the French, Canadian, British and American MSM were pulling their hair out over the Israeli bombing of the hospital and demanding hard proof that it wasn't so. Today's Wall Street Journal claimed American Democrat senators or congressmen demanded a private briefing where they could see the supposed secret evidence Biden had based his statement on.
I concluded from this that Israel probably hadn't bombed the hospital and the media was being used to cool Israel's aggression because the west was trying to steer the situation (for what, I have no idea. We'll all know later. Maybe in 60 years).
And this: A few days before the attack on the Ahli hospital in Gaza, the Israeli army struck the same hospital with shells, and notified the Hospital leader that this was a warning, before destroying the Hospital.
It is important to note that the areas around Hospital in Gaza are used as refuge by homeless or scared civilians, because it is a war crime to attack hospital during wars. Thus many people camped on the Parking lots of the Hospital to be safe at night, and many of those who were killed and injured by the blast were not inside the Hospital during the attack.
The international community immediately pointed the finger at Israel for the attack because of the power of the blast at the Hospital, which was reportedly full of Palestinians injured by previous Israeli airstrikes.
Also the Israeli spokesperson for Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hananya Naftali, took responsibility for the attack via the tweet: “Israeli Air Force struck a Hamas terrorist base inside a hospital in Gaza. A Multiple number of terrorists are dead.”
The tweet was later deleted, when the IDF accuses Hamas of having hit the Hospital.
The IDF stated that a large crater would have been created at the site of an Air strike.
Israel provided a video of the arrival of a JDAM bomb, but the video shows a hit on an open area.
However an Analysis by the Military Chronicle claim that the death toll from the Gaza hospital could not have been caused by a typical Palestinian rocket, but the explosion could have been a JDAM bomb set up for air burst that left no crater while causing damage to all civilians within a wide area from the blast. https://t.me/Slavyangrad/69125
You can see a video cavalcade of both the strikes of a Hamas Rockets and the strikes of JDAM bombs used by the Israeli air force. Both compared to the strike on the Hospital:
The American produced JDAM bomb with GPS guidance (which the IDF uses) can be programmed for both contact detonation and airburst detonation. The version MK 82, MK 83 and MK 84 JDAM can be delivered with GPS guidance, and thus can be used for airburst attack.
The GBU-32/Mk 82 version has the function of air blasting, and produces a dense fragmentation field over an area of 2.4 thousand square meters.
The improved PFB-82 version increase the affected up to 19 thousand square meters.
Detonating a JDAM bomb in the air above the target, will cause a major blast wave shattering all glass in the vicinity and create a storm of fragment both from the bomb and all the fragments dispersed by the blast and cause multiple deaths and injuries on the ground. The maximum speed of the fragments from the explosion of the bomb is 2440 m/s.
Any Hospital has oxygen at storage and such storage will fracture when bombed, and nurture the following fire from the explosion into a firestorm.
However the Hospital would still be standing after the blast, as it is constructed by steel reinforced concrete.
According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, 471 people died as a result of the attack.
If a JDAM airburst bomb was used, debris from the bomb, and marked parts of the Bomb, may be found on the roofs and in the courtyards of houses adjacent to the hospital.
Hamas have said that it will publish evidence of Israeli involvement in the attack on the hospital, and present it to international bodies.
The rockets produced by Hamas are not equipped with sensors for air detonation, as the Palestinian military-does not have access to such technology.
Israel has been flattening buildings in Gaza with a single 1000 lb guided JDAM bomb.
The Hamas rockets can only carry a warhead on the size of 42 lb.
Besides, No debris of a Hamas rocket was found at the site, or an impact of such a missile.
The next day the Israeli Air Force attacked targets 100 meters from the Al-Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip. This hospital also has a tent camp with Palestinian refugees on its territory.
Russia has demanded that Israel provide satellite images to prove that it was not involved in the attack on a hospital in Gaza. The Russian Federation classifies the attack as a war crime.
Israel claimed it would present evidence to the UN Security Council yesterday of its non-involvement in the attack on the hospital in Gaza, However the US Vetoed the UN Resolution before any credible evidence were presented.
For more info: Check out the comments and their related videos down below this Zero Hedge article.
There was even more convincing evidence that came out last night that it had never happened. I don't know what's true. I'm not there. Just about anything could be faked or footage from somewhere else. How the hell can I tell at this point?
So you have not seen the evidence, easy to prove trajectory etc. But the lack of evidence is also proof. The hospital stands without damage. There are no bodies (if there had been 600 dead they would have piled up the bodybags for shock visuals) there is no evidence of Israeli bomb - shrapnel etc. All that is presented is Moslems beating their chests and wailing among the usual rubble and rags. Sorry chum - that’s not good enough.
Well we are becoming more accustomed to beheading in Europe now. Not a day goes by without that threat or action. See Fusilier Lee Rigby, Woolwich London in broad daylight 19 Dec 2013
Apparently the babies were burned alive, so much more humane!
Plz don't attack other members in such a way. I understand you're passionate on the topic but we don't want the comments section devolving into infantile mudslinging matches.
Let's all make a pact to ignore the ashkeNAZI trolls such as "Lynn". Deny them attention which is their oxygen, they use their lies to attract rebuttals and then threads are derailed. It is difficult I know as I can't help rebutting their lies but I reckon ignoring the scum is better for all.
Dude - they're EDL trolls. They don't have a life. Trust me, as long as you feed them, they'll keep coming back.
Still, it's mildly amusing watching you smack em down. ;)
But they are fanatics, and they honestly believe they are "acheiving" something by tying you up all night arguing with them. I think its all they do with their lives.
Is pro Israel internet spamming something those no work, no fight ultra orthodox hard-line zionists are allowed to do with their abundant free time, or is it too much like work or military service?
1. It is unrealistic to call the Israeli army motivated when you look at the high rates of no show of reservists. Israel's Army is mostly conscripts who's only training, for the ladt 15 years, has been slapping Palestinian kids, pushing women and punching old men.
When Israelis are met in close quarter combat they run or surrender. Refer yourself back to the realities of 1973, 2006 and all the other losses stated in this article.
2. The more Israel causes rubble by bombarding, the more its armor will be sitting ducks everything time the tank tracks are damaged by rubble or mines.
3. Rubble fighting requires special and maintained training which Israel doesn't have and can't provide immediately.
4. By most analyst accounts, Hamas has handed the IDF its ass starting on the 7th. There is no denying it.
5. The US and in turn Israel will run out of ammo.
6. This is a big one, Hamas is impatiently waiting for Israel to bring it on, where the battle field is leveled. This is the real reason for October 7. This is a reality kept from sinking into the Israeli mind due to the addictive hubris of Israel.
7. Israel has to keep in its calculus, that an incurgence into Gaza, will end with HizbAllah invading Northern Israel and capturing it, while menacing Hifa and its large Amonio tank farms.
8. Iran will enter the fray. After raising the black flag of vengence in Mashad two million Iranians have volunteered into the Army.
9. Egypt has mobilized on its borders with Israel and I heard the Israeli Ambassador to Egypt has returned to Israel. Egypt has a capable army.
10. The Egyptians and Jordanians do not wish to host refugees because due to Israel's treachery and deception it is understood Israel will never allow them to return.
11. Gaza and its population is annexed territory and is the responsibility of Israel. So before we disparage the Brown people some more, let's look at ourselves, shall we?
12. There is talk of an Israeli specific oil embargo.
And here is the most important take away Israel is finished, it just hasn't sunk in.
Israel is not fighting freshly liberated ME British Colonies in 1967. Israel is fighting modern Arab Armies, where Egyption combat soldiers must complete a college degree and Syrians are veterans oc ten years of war.
Israel is economically facing united commodities based economies, while supported by an ailing benefactor writing IOUs.
Against its cruelty to its neighbors and the worldwide nausea from its hubristic zionism, Israel is facing Russia, China, Iran, KSA South Africa and Egypt.
Watch the movie the Magnificent Seven. That's who Israel is facing and gues who the rest of the world is cheering on. By all accounts, at least one and half billion people are not in Israel's corner.
Israel is done and we are closing in the Biblical limit of 80 years.
After my experience with ex-IDF i dont see Isr. going in very soon if at all. If any of my ex roomates would be called up, they would not show up, shoot themself in the foot or what not. These guys have something to loose compared to theire enemy (western middlclass style lifes) nor do they have a ideology that emboldens them. The hardcore of Hamas fighters have seen and eaten soo much shit in their life untill the can hold a gun, that is a complete diffrent ball game. This is not some Meth-head, dropout freaks alla Isis (mainly talking about the european members). Hamas is expecting martyrdom and they will embrase it fighting to the bitter end.
Simply not the enemy you want to fight. Tech and firepower become relative in this situation. IDF is not up for the job in my opinion.
Thanks E.L. ... Iagree with you. It is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, it's the size of the fight in the dog.
I watched a brief video, taken a few years ago, of the IDF forcing a Palestinian family out of their home, only to let loose a bulldozer on the House. A member of the family was a boy about 8 to 10 years old. His father restrained him by his shoulders to keep him from getting in trouble with the soldiers. He made this noise as if there was a bomb inside him that exploded. I thought to myself, I have never seen such rage before and this boy will grow up to fight zionists for depriving him of his humanity.
I see the situation in Gaza, as a settlement of an account that is way overdue and unfortunately, it is being used by the Anglosaxons to replace their collapsing system of exploitation with a newer and much more exploiting system. The method is to start WW3, to break America, Russia and China.
The Hydra lives In City of London and the English people are too weak to eliminate it.
Netanyahu doesn't have time. Israel overall has not had a stable government literally for years - and a big part of it was Netanyahu maneuvering to stay out of jail by staying in government. So long as Netanyahu is prime minister, he won't get convicted of the 60+ crimes he is accused of, but he is absolutely being blamed for the debacle of the Hamas attack.
This is why Israel is likely to do something particularly stupid - and convert what is a failure and tragedy into a potentially existential fight.
How do you reconcile the "Ukraine is running out of manpower/artillery" with their continued ability to mount attacks, offensives, etc? I've always felt that the support the West has given is far deeper than people realize and they have a lot of combat power left. Even the destroyed armor - and there is a lot of it - doesn't approach 30-40% of what they have been given and so there are I would say at least 2 more "counteroffensives" worth of equipment still lurking behind the lines.
Rybar's reporting has turned to dog$hit in the last several months, they may as well be a UA channel at this point.
On Avdeevka - does Ru have an analog of the USAF bunker buster bombs? Wiki shows something but nothing I've heard referenced during the war. It seems like artillery / tank fire is more or less useless against the fortifications. Am sure Ru has a plan for making it stick, we will see over the next weeks if it works or not.
Certainly the support in many ways will be in th future revealed to be far greater than we ever imagined. However, keep in mind the attacks at least mentioned here are still relatively minor ones all things considered. We're talking a few companies at a time, nothing like WW2 level with divisions engaging divisions.
That being said, I wrote a few reports ago that up to 10 new brigades are being slowly created. A new update yesterday stated that at least 5 were being created in various stages.
Recall that any country still has hundreds of thousands or millions of people reaching the age of 18 every year, that means huge new pools of cannon fodder will continue to be available.
The areas where I think Western support will one day be revealed to be much greater than we imagined is in the use of mercenaries and boots on the ground in "advisor" roles far closer and on the frontline than we thought.
But as for equipment, I think Ukraine still has plenty left, even tanks. It's just all a matter of perspective. Is it a lot compared to Russia, or compared to what they started with? No. But it's still at least 1000-1500 light armors left, and potentially upwards of 300-500 tanks left but some pro-Ukrainian sources list them as having 800-1000 tanks.
Also one small update was that all 31 Abrams M1a1 from the U.S. have allegedly been fully delivered to Ukraine now as of this week as well.
The thing is, 500-1000 tanks is very small if you intend to go on offensives because you can lose that in a few weeks. But once Ukraine chooses to dig in and turtle up then play defensively, the amount of equipment they have left can still stretch out a long ways because in defensive positions it can be preserved for much longer.
On Rybar, most people myself included agree. Recently they really jumped the shark and we can no longer count on them for serious stuff, at least not without major cross-referencing of other sources.
Russia has bunker busters but the problem is most of them are *bombs* like the Kab-1500 series rather than glidebombs/missiles, i.e. they have to be dropped from fairly short range.
For missiles they generally had some dual purpose missiles that can do bunker buster roles like Kh-22s and the newer Kh-101s and a couple others. If you saw the video I posted a few reports ago about the start of the SMO, Ukraine showed a deep bunker built in Soviet times that was "supposed to withstand nuclear explosions" and it was penetrated and completely wrecked (everyone inside killed) by some kind of Russian bunker busters in the opening of the SMO last year. They showed the wreckage of the missiles but didn't say what it was. Just eye-balling it, to me it seemed too small for Iskander and appeared to potentially be Kalibr sized which means it could maybe be the Kh-101 penetrator warhead.
But I don't know if they're willing to waste Kh-101s on the fortifications unless they have exact intel where they are.
It could be less than that. My personal calculation was 300-500 tanks at the most but some have it 800+. I'm not pompous enough to say mine is the most accurate. As for light armor the issue is, that's almost infinite around the world. Particularly IMVs like MRAPS and all that stuff, I mean U.S. alone has like 8-10k of them not even counting other countries. And IFV/ICV/APC there are still thousands to be sourced all around the world. It's the MBT tanks that's the problem and not much left in the world to give.
But honestly if all you have is thousands of IFV/ICV/APC (models that don't even have ATGMs like Bradley TOWs) then you won't get far if your opponent has plentiful heavy armor.
That's why my main concern is how much MBTs they have, I don't really even care about their light armor, at a certain point it will be worthless.
Any arbitrary tank number (be it 300 or 800) calculations should be split into categories.
1. There are serviceable tanks ready to go (probably a few low hundreds).
2. There are would-be serviceable tanks which were damaged and recovered and will be available in short-mid term (probably a similar number to active tanks, or even a bit higher)
3. There are tanks half-destroyed or dysfunctional, which are still a good source of parts or could be rebuilt. These could number in hundreds too.
4. Also, as with Russia, Ukraine also had a good stock of reserve tanks. While most of those capable of being reactivated in fact were (and are now in categories 1-3), there are also additional tanks which need a lot of work to be reactivated and are of 1950's-1980's versions. Some of these were sent to Poland/Czechia/Slovakia/Bulgaria to be modernized and reactivated. Some of them might be still left rotting in some backyard in some of these countries. Reserves of these countries should be counted into this number. That means a few hundred tanks on top of what Ukraine had.
5. There are also western tanks supplied from western inventories/reserves (of all 4 previous categories).
So at the same time, there could be 300-500 tanks which are serviceable or near-term serviceable, there are also these other tanks which might become available later. The number is an open question as many of them now count in the former category (or are already lost), there still could be a substantial number of potentially-serviceable MBTs available of wildly varying quality. How many depends on how much of this reserve was already eaten up. Thus both 300-500 and 800+ (or even higher) numbers can be accurate at the same time, with the caveat that the number of available tanks right now is in the low hundreds.
I had this exact same thought as Bash as I was reading your exemplary sitrep. In this reply you said that the bunker buster type bombs need to dropped from fairly close range but isn’t this coke plant located fairly close to Russian held territory?
Taking the line of thinking further, if it is possible for the Russian Air Force to drop said bombs due the proximate location why can’t they just carpet bomb the whole area.
They could take a page out of the Israeli playbook and give notice to all civilians to leave the city within several days.
Twitter war is staging small, sometimes damaging but always tactically and strategically irrelevant attacks whether posing for selfies on borders/islands or firing off the latest US gift in a premature emission.
Like all civilians I have been praying that Russia would overcome the NAZI Ukrainian regime fast, so as to deprive them of the time to ‘call up 10 year olds’ and other depraved actions. However I accept that Russia’s first obligation is to its forces, and the long haul and attrition has benefitted Russian forces which are basically intact.
Why would any military advise Israel to advance into Gaza which I understand is more or less the equivalent of the industrial complex in Mariupol, for instance, when they, like Russia, can starve their enemy out? Remember there were civilian hostages in Mariupol too.
Russia of all nations should factor in the false reporting and false flag issues. Think of the ZNP alone.
I appreciate that this is a very competent military commentary, but you must factor in that all Jews and gentiles are in this bag that is being countered by the Islamic world, with the resources we gave them (huge oil revenues for example). We must pump our own oil and deprive them of our own resources (that’s what Thatcher and Reagan did to the USSR - more effective than any war and of course, Russia saved itself).
Christian Russia might be in trouble and isolated in BRICS.
You appreciate that Islam doe not allow apostasy.
I just want to say that were I Israel, I would not think of sending ground forces into Gaza and I would stop shelling. I would keep the borders closed and simple start demolishing that bloody Mosque on Temple Mount - another foot for every shell that lands in Israel from any direction. I would point all my nuks at Mecca.
Why has Egypt and Jordan got a veto on accepting asylum seekers when the Moslem controlled UN forces them on the European world? They HAVE to take the Gazian civilians because they are culpable for every civilian death in Gaza. Israel, like Russia, gave warning and time for civilian evacuation.
BTW, Islam is perfectly fine with Christianity, more's the shame. It is the Israelis who are eliminating minority religions - such as Palestinian Christians. I don't suppose a racist moron like yourself has ever considered this, but India is also not Islamic?
If you break the injunction of the Rabbis, and start demolishing Al Aqsa, then the experiment called "Israel" is simply over. The USA cannot airlift into Israel indefinitely, and such an act would unite ALL of Israel's neighbours aganst them.
That blockade on civilians you have a hard-on for? How would Israel itself survive?
If they follow your psychopathic advice, Israelis will get to find out.
Ah, so you don’t understand the main basis of Islam. Neither does Simplicius. You should do a bit of reading about Islam. Anywhere that it once was is considered theirs (so India, Spain, France and now also Britain).
One thing I know for certain, Mohammed was a narcissistic psychopath.
Yes it has. In the 1970s, when moslem terrorists kidnapped Russian "diplomats," the Russians responded by kidnapping the families of the kidnappers and mailing their body parts back to the family until said "diplomats" were released (This type of thing is one reason Russian history in the middle east is a lot less colorful).
The Americans were trying to set up the same type of operation in Lebanon when their ambassador was himself kidnapped. Lol. He was going around trying to find kidnappers for hire to do the same thing for the US when he got kidnapped.
There's something to be said for the more totalitarian nature of Russian society. Everybody isn't running around trying to do what they think is best when in actuality they don't know the whole picture.
There is a bit of nuance that you're missing. Within the Islamist movement, you have factions. The version you're describing above and in other comments is the Takfiri i.e. ISIS faction. The "Islamic world" is hardly a monolithic entity; and the likes of ISIS would rather take out MBS than Netenyahu for example. As you get into the weeds, its actually a convoluted mess - Hamas and ISIS hate eachother, Al Qaeda and ISIS hate each other, Sunnis and Shiites don't get along, and so on. The real power in the so-called Islamic world actually comes from Arab monarchies & dictatorships (gulf countries etc) and so their religion is largely a secondary trait.
That is not me defending the faith or its adherents. I'm indifferent to it, and tend to take the position that in general a bit of religion in society can be healthy, but a lot tends to end up in disasters, and that includes the various modern pagan religions such as ESG, DEI, CRT, and so on
It is interesting how Shia Iran is a very good friend with Sunni Syria and how Shia Iraq had no issues with launching a war against a fellow Shia Iran in 1980's. Or how suddenly they're BFF with Sunni Saudi Arabia which only recently wanted to destroy a fellow Sunni Syria. Meanwhile, all 4 of them are secular countries in reality.
In reality, Muslims of various sects get along quite well by themselves. Stories about how they hate each other and can't get along because ***insert some reason*** were largely invented by outsiders to excuse some horrendous foreign intervention in their lands. Conflicts between Muslims exist, but they're of the same nature as conflicts between other people - mostly political.
Saddams Baath party was a sunni entity, not Shia. Your overall point is otherwise correct, these are quasi secular states and will, when pressed, close ranks of needed. Iran and Saudis rapprochement is the best example. A true economic union in the gulf countries would mean 200mn in one market. Something the others will work to prevent at all costs
And Assad's Baath party in Syria is Alawite, not Sunni. The population is still predominantly Sunni. Both governments are driven by their domestic majority (and at least in the case of Syria, we can tell that the government is largely supported by the population despite being "different"). Safe to say, the current situation in Islamic world does not support the idea that various Muslim sects can't get along with each other, but it supports the idea of the opposite.
If Israel destroys Temple Mount then that would get Shiite and Sunni to join together and Israel will have a real fight on its hands. They won’t be slaughtering unarmed civilians, but very pissed off Muslims. Good lord you come across as a ghoul wanting to starve civilians and especially children. And taking Gaza civilians will complete Israel’s ethnic cleansing. That’s why Egypt hasn’t opened its border.
Re Khinzals on Mig 31 "It’s a tad strange given that Russia has had Bastion/Bal ship-killer coastal defense missiles in Tartus and has no need for Kinzhals but who knows."
Maybe there is a fear they Bastions could be overwhelmed and the Khinzal equipped Migs are a further defensive layer.
Could be that they basically believe Kinzhals to be unstoppable by ships because ship radars don't really point up and a ballistic missile would come straight down onto the ship in its blind spot, at crazy speeds, whereas the Oniks / P800s from Bastion do the standard sea-skimming stuff ships are relatively prepared for or at least expect and radars are honed for.
I think it's more like Russia wants to actually SHOW a show of force, simply having coastal defenses which you cannot show off like you can a plane cannot have the same psychological and political effect that deploying migs would.
USN ship radars were designed with Kh-22s in mind, so they're definitely looking upwards a lot.
But more importantly, patrolling with Kinzhals with an intention to cover the Mediterranean would require at least a quiet backdoor Turkish approval. Not that Turks would be able to do anything about it, but shooting missiles through their airspace would give the West an excuse to hit Turks at least politically and economically. They already sort-of sided with Russia and China over the Gaza thing.
Even if the radars look up and see a Khinzal approaching it can't be stopped. All it will achieve is the radar operator shitting himself for the few seconds left of his miserable life.
I don't think the kinzhals are meant as anti-ship missiles. Rather i think they will be used against drones/reconnaissance aircraft that continues doing flybys of crimea/sevastopol and always coincides with a ukrainian attack.
Khinzals are overkill for a drone aren't they? Even a huge drone such as a Reaper can be taken out with smaller and less expensive air to air missiles.
It is for sneak from behind attack, although very unlikely, since if there was ever an attack against US carrier, it will "highly likely" coming from either Hezbollah / Iran. Of course we can't excluded Israel from doing anything stupid they love to do... Carrying out missile attack from Lebanese territory and blame Hezbollah for it.
Perhaps those defences were not designed to handle TWO entire US carrier groups on their own? This is an astounding amount of hardware and firepower threatening Lebanese civilians.
A group of 2 x MIG 31 + 4 Su27 as excort + A50U take about half of the sky above Black Sea to patrol. Maybe it is a good excuse to posture and gain points with Arabs and deny NATO intelligence assets space to to their aerial recon at the same time.
"SPEAK SOFTLY (actively cultivate diplomacy & negotiation) BUT CARRY A BIG STICK
OFFER FORMAL BOTH-SIDES-NOW, EQUAL-TIME, RECORDED & PUBLISHED DIALOGUE, not just to National Leaders but to all citizens as an international cumulative process. In dialogue & debate we capture the narrative, more precisely to humane aims than with the stick, even though essential as the RIGHT-TO-DEFEND. At the bottom of the pyramid, these dialogues widely spread have more power than from the top-down.
We've all the Right & Obligation to Defend oppressed, such as Palestinians, who’ve suffered over 100 years of violent western Oligarch commanded US, French, British-empires. International colonial parasites fester, finance, arm & train European Ashkenazi Israel, Irgun, Stern-gang, Lehi illegal invasion & murder of Palestinians with 'genocide' (UN definition = 'removing people from or destroying the means of livelihood). Hamas' actions are based on realities during 150 years of violent aggressive invasion displacing & killing millions of Palestinians & more injured, through Israel's ongoing stealing the means of decent healthy livelihood basics of adequate water, food, orchards, 10s of 1000s of years ancestral lands.
CONVENING DIALOGUES AT EVERY LEVEL
Military right & obligation to defend is crude, involving deaths of many innocents. It’s up to the rest of us to help Palestinians & all people, convene Both-sides-now & embarrass those who carry false cruel ideologies, prejudices & Oligarch planted indoctrination. Clarify misinformation dialectically.
The reactive Right to defend, which Mohandas Gandhi advocated, is also best combined with the cultivation of positive-proactive Right & Responsibility of 'indigenous' (Latin 'self-generating') COUNCIL-PROCESS. India & Gandhi, within the 'Swadeshi' (Hindi 'indigenous' aka 'self-sufficiency') movement, cultivated 'SATYAGRAHA' (Hindi 'Truth-search') to positively & constructively bring together India's diverse peoples, religions, castes, friends & foes in Both-sides-now, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogues. These formal dialogues are part of what brought India unity to economically employ strengths, meet needs & thereby disable the foreign colonial parasite nations. When people hear both-sides of issues presented simultaneously, they are more easily convinced & will act with confidence for having heard the best of both-sides put forward.
Human mind works 'dialectically' ('both-sided') in contrasting & comparing diverse points of view, similar to the way the human eye & other senses compose a 3-D working image or concept from separate slightly different pictures from each eye as 2-D sensory inputs. The difference between both eyes are composed in the Neural Cortex to produce the 3-D image, which is associated with other confirming or altering hearing from the 2 ears, smell from 2 nostrils, tactile data from skin feeling & kinetic data from our 2 arms, 2 legs & sides of our bodies. Socrates as a disillusioned soldier turned pacifist founded 'Academia' (Athens 'Garden of Academus') centered around 'Dialectic' formal Both-sided, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogue among students, teachers, citizens
TRANSCENDING FROM RAMPANT INTELLECTUAL COWARDICE. Western society is based on Oligarch owned institutional submission in Finance, Media, Religion, Education, Military-Industrial, Legislative, Judicial & Pharma-med COMPLEX. Engaging all in mindful 'DEBATE' (French 'de' = 'undo' + 'bate' = 'the-fight'). Mohandas Gandhi stated, "Non-violence springs from love, cowardice from hate. Non-violence always suffers, cowardice would always inflict suffering. Non-violence & cowardice go ill together. I can imagine a fully armed man to be at heart a COWARD." Gandhi is speaking here to the intelligent mind of the soldier as an active contributor to his or her community, society & ultimately to the international conversation of war & peace.
CONVERTING MAINSTREAM & SOCIAL MEDIA FROM MONO-TO-DIALOGUE
Right when I was gonna go to bed. Well nix that idea thanks Simp!
Yeah I know right? I nodded off before I finished though...
LOL I only got halfway thru it myself last night, had to finish it this morning
Watching UN members turn their backs on usa speaker was impressive . It went from Nikki Haley saying we are taking names and counting vote to usa being ignored
If the UN is not a taking shop it’s nothing. Best to dismantle it then.
More like shunned than just ignored.
You know why? Israel is similar to an Usraeli family leaving a perfectly good home accross town and showing up in the Middle East neighborhood to kick in the door of the Palestinian home and kill half of them and imprison the rest in the house basement.
So one day the Palestinians living in the depressive basement breakbout and kick the door of their own house kill some Israelis and return to the basement, calling for the Israelis to come and get them.
The Israelis are surprised and angry that the Palestinians didn't knock and wait for permission to enter. It only means one thing, trouble in the neighborhood.
This leaves the rest of the neighbors uneasy, tired and resentful of the criminality of Israelis.
I've done reading, looks like Simplicius playing it safe this time by giving Israeli 20% part of the article. Well. Not much happening lately in Gaza Front.
War in Gaza must stop and Ordinary Israeli should make arrest of Netanyahu and his cronies, then ship all Zionist and Ultra Nationalist, the main culprits behind every disaster in Palestine all this time, send them back to where they were from, it will left 7 - 8 Millions people who can still assimilated and live normally among their neighbors.
But don't worry, it won't happen and this war will only escalate because Netanyahu government cared so much about fulfilling Talmudic prophecy.
For those who wish to learn more about the Fundamentalist Zionist gripping Israel, you may want to watch this video of Alaster Crooke explain the situation on the Durant.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0IKCo3MVW1o&pp=ygUURHVyYW4gQWxhc3RlciBjcm9va2U%3D
I have a strong suspicion that Israel's intelligence let this event happen much like the American CIA did much the same to Trump.
The Israeli economy basically grinds to a complete halt when they mobilize. They cannot stay mobilized for long; in 1967 Nasser had been massing troops in Sinai for a month forcing Israel to keep itself mobilized. Israel basically had to attack or demobilize; to stay mobilized would have mean economic ruin. That might be a strategy here. If Hamas and Hizbollah can keep a threatening enough posture Israel maybe forced to act (one way or another) in a diplomatically disastrous way or face economic collapse. How much and how long would the US be willing and able to foot the bill for the Israeli economy?
Utter rubbish. Israel now has 3x the population of 1967 and a high tech economy that is unaffected by the war or the relatively small (in terms of total reserves of over 2M) call up.
The facts of the Zionist's economy prove you wrong. Once again.
Thank you, your response was fact-filled and a bit lengthy.
Andrew, calling out 400,000 reservists must leave 400,000 jobs needing manpower and deliveries unmet. Furthermore, fuel, Nitrate based products and food are diverted to the war effort instead of industry. Furthermore, if the Arabs go with an Israeli specific oil embargo, that should have a negative impact.
The days of Israel waging the American Dog are over. A new infusion of aid from the US is not what will float the Israeli economy for long.
The IDF are only brave when murdering unarmed civilians and reporters.
And is just here to put in a token response for unit 8200 (or whatever....) He aint got much staying power though...
360k out of 10M population is only 3.6%.
This is minor and is more than made up for by volunteering and people being much more motivated to help others and the country.
Israel doesn't get oil from Arab countries and is a major gas producer.
An oil embargo won't affect it and a gas embargo will make Israel's own gas more valuable.
The EU might suffer but neither Israel nor the USA will. It is not 1973.
Reservists eat the same whether called up or not and drive cars or tanks the same too. The war does not affect food or fuel usage. Distances are very short. Not much fuel needed to go into Gaza or Lebanon.
Israel is a major producer of nitrates so can make plenty of its own ammunition.
Israel is quite capable of destroying Hamas and Hizbollah in a long war.
"Israel is a major producer of Nitrates", not if the Amonia tanks in Haifa are blown up.
Furthermore, an oil embargo specific to Israel, will only affect Israel. Israel is not energy sufficient.
It's population is fleeing and once this war is over, Israel's civil war will begin.
An attack on Israel will be targeted to destroy its industries not its army alone.
Andrew, realize Israel is diminished at least if it is lucky enough to be allowed by the Far Right, back to 1967 borders.. It is surrounded economically, militarily and morally. Israel is in a bad place.
PS. Israel will not be fighting Hamas alone in a long war, Andrew. Your fondness of Israel is not allowing you to revisit the new calculus of the ME.
The writing on the wall is "No More."
Indulge your inaccurate fantasy (Haifa tank closed and moved, Israel is net energy exporter and hugely moved to electric cars powered by indigenous gas) as much as you like, but understand that if anything remotely like you forecast would come to pass then all Israel's enemies would disappear in nuclear fire.
Ask yourself the simple question - If Israel nukes Lebanon or Iran or any other country that makes itself an enemy, who is going to risk being nuked themselves to avenge them?
The reality is that Israel is the only nuclear armed country that could, in extremis, use nuclear weapons without its enemies having any means of retaliation.
I go back to my broad strategic analysis - Who is actually willing to risk their national interests to support terrorists. Only Iran.
All other players are off the table.
Now you are getting angry and invoking the Samson option. Isn't that a two way street with little Israel in the middle and a biblical backlash against world Jewery for Zionist madness, with only a radio active land to be banished to.
Zionists of today or the 13th tribe of yesterday is always hurting their neighbors and sacrificing Torah Jews.
It has happened before a 100 times.
Here is a positive take. The Zionost Bankers have depopulated Ukraine, why doesn't Israel move to Ukraine?
I am sure it can continue its centers of high tech and organ harvesting.
"electric cars powered by indigenous gas". Stolen gas.
Not even ashamed to state they use stolen resources.
Fuck these greedy shameless cunts.
You are aware that Iran, Russia & China recently made a mutual defense agreement, right? Iran joined the SCO last July 4.
So yes, if Israel crosses certain "red lines," it could be wiped off the map.
The Jews already nuked Lebanon. Twice! What monsters they are.
Andrew, I respect your love for Israel, but if Israel ever uses nukes it will be destroyed...
> 360k out of 10M population is only 3.6%.
A rookie mistake. The number of employed people in Israel is 4.3 mil (out of 9.3). That means about 8% of workforce.
> Reservists eat the same whether called up or not and drive cars or tanks the same too. The war does not affect food or fuel usage.
Are you saying a tank eats up the same amount of fuel as a car?
> Israel is a major producer of nitrates so can make plenty of its own ammunition.
> Israel is quite capable of destroying Hamas and Hizbollah in a long war.
Gee, I wonder why they're already asking for 10$ bil from the US and planes with ammo are already flying into Israel. And they haven't even started the proper fighting yet.
I think it's much worse actually. Out of 9.45 milion total population, 1.3 milion are ultra-Orthodox Jews who do not work nor they join the army. Also you have 2 million Arab Israelis who are exempt from the military service, which leaves you at around 6 million. So 360k out of 6M population is 16%. Also since I have family in Israel I can confirm that pretty much all army liable men unred the age of 40 are conscripted now. They didn't call up on women that I know of. These men that I know are actually IT engineers and very productive members of the economy. Their absence will definitely be felt.
God keep you and your family safe Lily. Regardless of which tribe we belong to we are all from one soul.
The other thing that happens when conflict has broken out is the Arabs boycot work and for security reasons there movements are restricted.
@lily357
I've always been amazed that the Israeli "ultra orthodox" minority are given a pass on productive labor and military service in Israel- Yet are still allowed to vote?
How did their society develop to allow such a dead weight?
It's three days later and nobody has pointed out that 360k out of 6M population is 6%, not 16%. Surprising.
But the overall point stands, of course.
How many times do we have to say that figures means sh*?
Kiev boasted about 1 million recruits for its 6th mobilisation. Who believes it one second ?
300 k means sh*.
IDF has never been weaker. Almost half of its forces consists in Tik bait women. Some reservists are ruining their barracks into dust (see on X) to oppose their dispatch there.
If officers in 2006 complained about having to buy their own equipment and reservists were crying next to their tanks, who would believe that things would be different now ?
This is one thing about Israeli men, they seem to weep a lot. I weep, only when I see mangled bodies of children, but other than that, most guys don't.
Israel is fairly self sufficient in gas, but it imports $1.88B a year in oil and gasoline and so forth.
They are not self sufficient in overall energy by any remote stretch of the imagination - and the IDF runs on oil products, not natural gas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_to_liquids
https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/constructing_operating_gtl
My cynicism suggests they didn't do this, but if they did...
The number of Fischer Tropsch plants in the entire world can be counted on fingers alone - literally barely over one hand-worth.
That's because the process sucks - the EIA estimates breakeven at $94/barrel of oil: https://netl.doe.gov/research/carbon-management/energy-systems/gasification/gasifipedia/efficiency
Furthermore. the plants are EXTREMELY expensive and complex.
There's a new plant in Pennwell, Texas to take advantage of Permian gas - it cost $7b. Dubai has a couple that cost $18B and $1B, respectively and there are a couple in Malaysia and in South Africa. That's about it for large scale plants.
Israel does not have one nor are there any plans that anybody is aware of.
Even if they did, the price for the resulting gasoline would be exorbitant.
I know this because I literally just created a company around a tech that will displace the Fischer Tropsch technology because it is both more energy efficient and far, far less capital cost.
You are dreaming Andrew ........ and the IDF knows it. They are in big trouble, their bluff has been called and they failed the test. So now they wait for the inevitable and it is inevitable.
If I was an ashkeNAZI as Hamilton is I'd be getting out instead of wasting my time posting transparent coping lies online.
But they are psychologically warped and rationality isn't in their genes.
Then why has Hezbollah defeated Israel in two wars in Lebanon? Israel has only 7+million jews and a low birthrate..It can't afford big losses, and jewish women should not be in the military, they should be having babies....
Hezbollah would also be supported and reinforced by the whole moslem world at this point, possibly including the ferocious Chechens...It's a fool's errand to engage in a war against Hezbollah on its home ground, and I doubt that Bibi is that dumb....
Israel never fought a long war because it can't last in a long war.
If Israel is capable of destroying Hamas and HezbAllah why haven't they done so?
I wonder what percentage the Syrian oil flow can fill the gap if Iran closes the gulf.
Again the Iraqi drone attack is a warning that disruption can happen in Iraq AND Syria.
I heard that all the pil workers in East Syria and Golan have left.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Israel had a nearly $34B trade deficit in 2022 or easily 5 to 10 times more than the free money given to Israel by the US in the form of aid.
That's 6.8% of GDP = pretty damn high.
Yes, a high tech economy paid for by the USA.
You're right. Israel has possibly the weirdest laws on the planet concerning who has to serve and who has is on the mandatory call-up list. On one hand, 20-year-old girls who clearly have no enthusiasm for fighting are mandated to serve while on the other hand, 40-year-old men in perfect health who are hardcore anti-Palestinian zealots are exempted on religious grounds, even as they cheer on the fighting.
Likewise, ethnic Druze men can be conscripted, but ethnic Bedouin not. And don't even get me started on the weird rules surrounding Circassians :))
Long story short: Israel doesn't have enough "spare people" around to staff a full-time military operation without seriously disrupting local businesses, and huge sections of the adult population are exempt from military duty.
Huge weakness of the Israeli state that they have subgroups that are considered unfit for military service. Either through questionable loyalty or unwillingness to serve.
Reminds me of the old Union of South Africa or Rhodesia in certain ways, though less extreme. Does not bode well long term.
I was going to say British India, with its martial races and its also-rans (until the world wars).
Nasser had only one division in Sinai. This is not true. Egypt was not planning an attack on Israel, Egypt had only one division in Sinai. This was another Zionist lie to garner misinformed Western support and to perpetuate the myth of the brave Davidian Israeli Army.
Israel attacked Egypt in 1967.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War
Ernesto, my hat is off for you. You know history.
The settlers and religious nutters in Israel want to build a temple on the site of the al Aqsa Mosque. Cuz the thousand year old fables told me so... Not all of the Muslim World is in love with Hamas but when the Zionists berserkers start going after the al Aqsa Mosque, all hell will break loose. It will make the battle for Hue and the 1968 Tet Offensive look like a church ice cream social. I see dead people...
It's very unfortunate that the exact same location was where the 2nd Temple was, and the al-Aqsa Mosque, and the headquarters of the Knights Templar. That said, it was Muslim policy to take the largest house of worship in a conquered city and make it into a mosque. While Muslims were generally tolerant of Christian and Jewish houses of worship, none could overtop the biggest mosque in the city. Look, for instance, at the Haghia Sophia in Constantinople. The Crusaders chose the Temple Mount as their headquarters purposefully, also.
Radioactive waste, preventing everyone and anyone from ever inhabiting the location, would probably be a net positive for peace.
Been waiting for this. Thank you!!
Dear god, that picture of Failinsky...
How much coke is he inhaling?
Such hubris "no way our guys didn't know about it".
I haven't read your SITREP yet , but you are a hard worker, i give you that.
Best compliment yet!
I'll do one better. You are a hard worker and I got notified at around 2 am and had to read it :-)
Savvy exposition and discernment. Learned quite a few things, thank you!
The war in Israel is no more than an insurgency operation, on a strip of land too small to offer any cover to the insurgents, or even any of the kind of problems the Americans faced during the occupation of Iraq.
The war in the Ukraine is a couple of orders of magnitude larger in scale, its effects will have way more consequence on human destinies, and is much more significant/interesting to survey from a military point of view.
Yeah but. Pax Americana must come to an end and Pax Judaica still must come to take place. Interestingly, I stumble upon this phrase;
Signs of the End of the Age
5 For many will come in My name, claiming, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many. 6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. These things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places.… Mathew 24:6
Have you looked at satellite images of Gaza?
It is far closer to Stalingrad/Leningrad than it is to Lawrence of Arabia.
Fail.
I compared the current situation to the Insurgency in Iraq
With the difference that in Iraq there was a rear to fall back on. In Gaza Hamas has its back against the sea. The conflict basically starts off as a last stand of the weaker force. Much more akin to a miniature Berlin '45 than Stalingrad
Except Israel's IDF is neither the Allied/American nor the Soviet armies, or even either of the two. While I would not call it ragtag, it is a far cry from Wagner assaulting Artemovsk, nor do I believe Israeli society can withstand 10,000 dead troops even if they killed 100,000 Hamas fighters. In reality, the number could easily be multiples higher.
The population of Israel's Jews is comparable to the population of Palestinians; while the population of Israel's Jews is only maybe 2.5x of Gaza alone.
So no, can't say that your analogy works at all.
Whatever Hamas' official numbers were before last week, I guarantee that there will be a lot more people fighting now since they have nowhere to go.
Nor is the Israel hope of starving/thirsting the population into surrender, going to work either. It is abundantly clear that the Muslim world is not going to let that happen.
I would think 10k casualties could be absorbed, but I also think that the willingness of cushy youth in the US to serve in IDF will be blunted in that scenario. It might not mean defeat now, but it could lead to it 10 years from now when recruitment is anemic.
It is less clear to me. As another poster wrote about the exceptions for Hasids and other members of the Misrahi such that there would be a disproportionate distribution of casualties among the far smaller families in the Ashkenazi.
A few hundred is one thing, 10,000 is something else particularly if the "problem" isn't fully resolved. Which I think would be highly unlikely.
These are the kind of people I am familiar with - the NYC based Ashkenazi who are willing to send their kids back to serve in IDF. I can easily see them being afflicted by the Vietnam disease that all the people around them have in regards serving in the US military.
Only if the Palestinians are on their own....
Employing time and acting methodically makes perfect sense for Israel. Surprise isn't an element in the op and, yes, they need to have resources organized to be prepared to respond on multiple fronts. Hamas isn't going to be slaying any more civilians in the meantime, aside possibly from the people they kidnapped. And provided they can't be resupplied Hamas' ability to resist will diminish with time. Israel is no doubt further degrading Hamas' personnel, logistics, comms, mobility, etc. with ongoing Gaza strikes in the meantime. While Hamas should be expected to engage (this time facing highly motivated geared up professional soldiers not surprised, defenseless civilians) they will enter any fight weakened with fatigue, short supplies, degraded comms, a broken command chain, etc. Prediction...the op will take time and come with costs but Hamas' isolated remainder will ultimately succumb in their untenable position.
I don't know, but wonder, if Israel couldn't simply cut Hamas off in Northern Gaza and wait as their water, food, fuel, etc. run out, while allowing noncombatants to move to the south after being screened (tragic that even Egypt and Jordan are rejecting entry of Palestinians from Gaza). They already have two sides of the perimeter secured and another is the sea. Establish a robust perimeter to the south, excavating and destroying any tunnels crossing the perimeter. Holding the perimeter would require fewer resources and cost fewer lives, perhaps very few. Let time and failing resources do the work.
As the direct result of Israeli war crimes including knowingly bombing hospitals and residences. Context is important, but yes, you're right. Hamas is likely back on their heels at the moment - understandably so.
The bombing of the hospital has now been proven a fake - the Moslems dropped their own rocket on their own car park. Lied about the number of dead. Think the ZNP in the Ukrainian lie machine.
Neither Hamas nor the murderous authoritarians in Kiev are going to win a real fight with manipulative nonsense rhetoric and narratives, no matter how much MSM aids and abets.
Attempted deception about the hospital (actually the hospital parking lot, inadvertently bombed by Hamas) proved particularly idiotic after being exposed by nothing more than the light of day.
Hamas has already won.
The USA can threaten Lebanon's civilians as hostages to Hezbollah, but those fleets in the Med are sitting ducks if it really kicks off. Iran and KSA have already arranged to cut the oil supply, and there is SWEET FUCK ALL the USA can do about that.
Iran is prepared, and likely moving anti-ship assets rapidly towards Syria. The iron dome ran out of rockets in 6hrs against coke-bottles filled with flour - it will be useless against 20,000+ of the latest military grade missiles.
The Global South is lining up to demand the 2 State solution, and the USA cannot stop this avalanche.
All the Israelis can do is bomb civilians from the air, as they are so used to doing, but it will change *nothing*.
Except make them liable for war crimes tribunals.
Hamas has won. But I'm not surprised you Zionazis are still in denial. Nazis usually end up in bunkers with their fingers in their ears.
Or the short barrels of revolvers in their ears. But yes. Let us hope you're right.
Of course the west can start pumping oil and gas. And personally I would demolish the mosque brick by bloody brick in retaliation for any cheek from anywhere.
If the Israelites don’t do this and fail, they will have failed because they are too kind and weak - not because they are too aggressive and strong.
Kind and weak? LOL
So true.
Israel's biggest problem has always been being too kind and not using its full power for humanitarian reasons and to be liked (even though this is pointless and impossible with so many anti-semites).
Now Israel is at least untying one arm from behind its back.
Most Israeli's now feel that both hands should be untied.
You on the same stuff as Zelensky 😂🤣
You would know. Do you still get your stuff from your head honcho "Tommeh"? The far-right always love coke.
It gives them misplaced feelings of adequacy.
LMFAO - you think the MSM is on Hamas' side? For fuck's sake bro. Here's what went down:
Ukronazi bullies attacked Little Brother civilians who had a much tougher Big Brother right next door and are learning the hard lessons. They did all the attacking and bullying for 8 years or more with USNATO help.
Zionazi wannabe bullies with a distant big brother attacked an imprisoned, impoverished, blockaded, controlled population of little brothers without a regional or any other big brother as nearby as Russia. And Zionazis are STILL possibly going to lose this fight without help from USA big broth...I mean parasitically controlled USA.
MSM aids and abets Hamas? That's like saying MSM aids and abets Russia, but with the added disclaimer that Russia has never attacked any American ally, no matter how shitty of an ally that might be.
Point being: Little brothers without Big Brothers in the nearby immediate vicinity
I think his comment was light on context. I noticed that yesterday (Wed. October 18) the French, Canadian, British and American MSM were pulling their hair out over the Israeli bombing of the hospital and demanding hard proof that it wasn't so. Today's Wall Street Journal claimed American Democrat senators or congressmen demanded a private briefing where they could see the supposed secret evidence Biden had based his statement on.
I concluded from this that Israel probably hadn't bombed the hospital and the media was being used to cool Israel's aggression because the west was trying to steer the situation (for what, I have no idea. We'll all know later. Maybe in 60 years).
This might help: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/19/what-hit-ahli-hospital-in-gaza (video investigation)
And this: A few days before the attack on the Ahli hospital in Gaza, the Israeli army struck the same hospital with shells, and notified the Hospital leader that this was a warning, before destroying the Hospital.
It is important to note that the areas around Hospital in Gaza are used as refuge by homeless or scared civilians, because it is a war crime to attack hospital during wars. Thus many people camped on the Parking lots of the Hospital to be safe at night, and many of those who were killed and injured by the blast were not inside the Hospital during the attack.
The international community immediately pointed the finger at Israel for the attack because of the power of the blast at the Hospital, which was reportedly full of Palestinians injured by previous Israeli airstrikes.
Also the Israeli spokesperson for Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hananya Naftali, took responsibility for the attack via the tweet: “Israeli Air Force struck a Hamas terrorist base inside a hospital in Gaza. A Multiple number of terrorists are dead.”
The tweet was later deleted, when the IDF accuses Hamas of having hit the Hospital.
The IDF stated that a large crater would have been created at the site of an Air strike.
Israel provided a video of the arrival of a JDAM bomb, but the video shows a hit on an open area.
Here are the JDAM bombs delivered by the US to Israel back on the 12-10-2023 https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1712486522086478053
However an Analysis by the Military Chronicle claim that the death toll from the Gaza hospital could not have been caused by a typical Palestinian rocket, but the explosion could have been a JDAM bomb set up for air burst that left no crater while causing damage to all civilians within a wide area from the blast. https://t.me/Slavyangrad/69125
You can see a video cavalcade of both the strikes of a Hamas Rockets and the strikes of JDAM bombs used by the Israeli air force. Both compared to the strike on the Hospital:
https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1714399005399011406?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1714399005399011406%7Ctwgr%5Ee60df2df669949313ac2cea1b8e910e94a0821a2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhalturnerradioshow.com%2Findex.php%2Fen%2Fnews-page%2Fworld%2Fflash-black-flag-is-risen-on-razavi-shrine-islam-is-going-to-all-out-war
What is a JDAM bomb:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Direct_Attack_Munition
The American produced JDAM bomb with GPS guidance (which the IDF uses) can be programmed for both contact detonation and airburst detonation. The version MK 82, MK 83 and MK 84 JDAM can be delivered with GPS guidance, and thus can be used for airburst attack.
The GBU-32/Mk 82 version has the function of air blasting, and produces a dense fragmentation field over an area of 2.4 thousand square meters.
The improved PFB-82 version increase the affected up to 19 thousand square meters.
Detonating a JDAM bomb in the air above the target, will cause a major blast wave shattering all glass in the vicinity and create a storm of fragment both from the bomb and all the fragments dispersed by the blast and cause multiple deaths and injuries on the ground. The maximum speed of the fragments from the explosion of the bomb is 2440 m/s.
Any Hospital has oxygen at storage and such storage will fracture when bombed, and nurture the following fire from the explosion into a firestorm.
However the Hospital would still be standing after the blast, as it is constructed by steel reinforced concrete.
According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, 471 people died as a result of the attack.
If a JDAM airburst bomb was used, debris from the bomb, and marked parts of the Bomb, may be found on the roofs and in the courtyards of houses adjacent to the hospital.
Hamas have said that it will publish evidence of Israeli involvement in the attack on the hospital, and present it to international bodies.
The rockets produced by Hamas are not equipped with sensors for air detonation, as the Palestinian military-does not have access to such technology.
Israel has been flattening buildings in Gaza with a single 1000 lb guided JDAM bomb.
The Hamas rockets can only carry a warhead on the size of 42 lb.
Besides, No debris of a Hamas rocket was found at the site, or an impact of such a missile.
The next day the Israeli Air Force attacked targets 100 meters from the Al-Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip. This hospital also has a tent camp with Palestinian refugees on its territory.
Russia has demanded that Israel provide satellite images to prove that it was not involved in the attack on a hospital in Gaza. The Russian Federation classifies the attack as a war crime.
Israel claimed it would present evidence to the UN Security Council yesterday of its non-involvement in the attack on the hospital in Gaza, However the US Vetoed the UN Resolution before any credible evidence were presented.
For more info: Check out the comments and their related videos down below this Zero Hedge article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-israel-agrees-netanyahu-looks-other-team-did-hospital-strike
Utter Hasbara BS, it was Israel and yes 500 plus died. Are you being paid, ideologically blinded or just MSM sheepl?
There was even more convincing evidence that came out last night that it had never happened. I don't know what's true. I'm not there. Just about anything could be faked or footage from somewhere else. How the hell can I tell at this point?
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1714419377305428295
Antipsychotics not working with delusions lately? It’s time for a more radical psychiatric intervention.
"Proven" - i'm not sure you grasp the meaning of "proof". A heads up - it doesn't mean believing evidence-free Israeli propaganda.
No-one with a brain cell believes it was anything but a typical Israeli terrorist attack on civilians.
So you have not seen the evidence, easy to prove trajectory etc. But the lack of evidence is also proof. The hospital stands without damage. There are no bodies (if there had been 600 dead they would have piled up the bodybags for shock visuals) there is no evidence of Israeli bomb - shrapnel etc. All that is presented is Moslems beating their chests and wailing among the usual rubble and rags. Sorry chum - that’s not good enough.
OMFG....JDAM. And let us guess - you believe the number of dead at Israel's "rave" to be 260? And how many raped girls? 400? Beheaded babies? 150?
Well we are becoming more accustomed to beheading in Europe now. Not a day goes by without that threat or action. See Fusilier Lee Rigby, Woolwich London in broad daylight 19 Dec 2013
Apparently the babies were burned alive, so much more humane!
Death toll at rave was 260.
I'm blocking most of you Zionist idiots. You're pathetic.
It's better to read what they say to know what they are thinking. Keep your "enemies" close. Just saying.
Is that why the concert massacre is a fabrication?
It wasn't.
No they didn't dumbfuck Zionist. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231018-us-weapons-expert-debunks-israels-denial-of-gaza-hospital-strike/
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1714730004163051847?
https://www.channel4.com/news/who-was-behind-the-gaza-hospital-blast-visual-investigation
Plz don't attack other members in such a way. I understand you're passionate on the topic but we don't want the comments section devolving into infantile mudslinging matches.
Sorry but I tire and get sickened by obvious lies and hasbara quite quickly. Point taken.
Then don’t read the comments.
Thank you.
The "Moslems"? WTF is that even supposed to mean.
Look it up, dimwit.
Look who's calling names now. Look what up?
Let's all make a pact to ignore the ashkeNAZI trolls such as "Lynn". Deny them attention which is their oxygen, they use their lies to attract rebuttals and then threads are derailed. It is difficult I know as I can't help rebutting their lies but I reckon ignoring the scum is better for all.
Dude - they're EDL trolls. They don't have a life. Trust me, as long as you feed them, they'll keep coming back.
Still, it's mildly amusing watching you smack em down. ;)
But they are fanatics, and they honestly believe they are "acheiving" something by tying you up all night arguing with them. I think its all they do with their lives.
Still, it keeps them off street corners etc. ;)
They are probably paid. Maybe not Lynn, but who knows. Point taken.
Is pro Israel internet spamming something those no work, no fight ultra orthodox hard-line zionists are allowed to do with their abundant free time, or is it too much like work or military service?
Nice try, but that "narrative" has been disproved and supplanted by recent acoustic evidence.
Stop spreading Hasbara BS which has already been completely debunked. It was Israel and yes over 500 died.
https://t.me/intelslava/52288
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1714419377305428295
Bollocks, the zionist filth did it. see Jonathan Cook
https://twitter.com/Jonathan_K_Cook/status/1714695571842224351
For those peddling the idea that Israel wasn't behind the rocket strike on the Gaza hospital, all of the following would need to be true:
1. Palestinian groups have managed to bypass Israel's siege and get their hands on very hi-tech weapons completely undetected by Israel.
2. They had decided not to use those weapons until last night.
3. The first time they tried to use such a weapon, it misfired and just happened to land on a hospital.
4. Israel's attack on the same hospital a couple of days earlier, warning that it must be evacuated, was purely coincidental.
When the BBC asked experts to comment, most "were not willing to put forward a view on what happened."
Given the likely career consequences were they not to find a Palestinian group responsible, one can understand their reticence.
Two counter points.
1. It is unrealistic to call the Israeli army motivated when you look at the high rates of no show of reservists. Israel's Army is mostly conscripts who's only training, for the ladt 15 years, has been slapping Palestinian kids, pushing women and punching old men.
When Israelis are met in close quarter combat they run or surrender. Refer yourself back to the realities of 1973, 2006 and all the other losses stated in this article.
2. The more Israel causes rubble by bombarding, the more its armor will be sitting ducks everything time the tank tracks are damaged by rubble or mines.
3. Rubble fighting requires special and maintained training which Israel doesn't have and can't provide immediately.
4. By most analyst accounts, Hamas has handed the IDF its ass starting on the 7th. There is no denying it.
5. The US and in turn Israel will run out of ammo.
6. This is a big one, Hamas is impatiently waiting for Israel to bring it on, where the battle field is leveled. This is the real reason for October 7. This is a reality kept from sinking into the Israeli mind due to the addictive hubris of Israel.
7. Israel has to keep in its calculus, that an incurgence into Gaza, will end with HizbAllah invading Northern Israel and capturing it, while menacing Hifa and its large Amonio tank farms.
8. Iran will enter the fray. After raising the black flag of vengence in Mashad two million Iranians have volunteered into the Army.
9. Egypt has mobilized on its borders with Israel and I heard the Israeli Ambassador to Egypt has returned to Israel. Egypt has a capable army.
10. The Egyptians and Jordanians do not wish to host refugees because due to Israel's treachery and deception it is understood Israel will never allow them to return.
11. Gaza and its population is annexed territory and is the responsibility of Israel. So before we disparage the Brown people some more, let's look at ourselves, shall we?
12. There is talk of an Israeli specific oil embargo.
And here is the most important take away Israel is finished, it just hasn't sunk in.
Israel is not fighting freshly liberated ME British Colonies in 1967. Israel is fighting modern Arab Armies, where Egyption combat soldiers must complete a college degree and Syrians are veterans oc ten years of war.
Israel is economically facing united commodities based economies, while supported by an ailing benefactor writing IOUs.
Against its cruelty to its neighbors and the worldwide nausea from its hubristic zionism, Israel is facing Russia, China, Iran, KSA South Africa and Egypt.
Watch the movie the Magnificent Seven. That's who Israel is facing and gues who the rest of the world is cheering on. By all accounts, at least one and half billion people are not in Israel's corner.
Israel is done and we are closing in the Biblical limit of 80 years.
Fuck me kilo, very well said.
After my experience with ex-IDF i dont see Isr. going in very soon if at all. If any of my ex roomates would be called up, they would not show up, shoot themself in the foot or what not. These guys have something to loose compared to theire enemy (western middlclass style lifes) nor do they have a ideology that emboldens them. The hardcore of Hamas fighters have seen and eaten soo much shit in their life untill the can hold a gun, that is a complete diffrent ball game. This is not some Meth-head, dropout freaks alla Isis (mainly talking about the european members). Hamas is expecting martyrdom and they will embrase it fighting to the bitter end.
Simply not the enemy you want to fight. Tech and firepower become relative in this situation. IDF is not up for the job in my opinion.
Thanks E.L. ... Iagree with you. It is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, it's the size of the fight in the dog.
I watched a brief video, taken a few years ago, of the IDF forcing a Palestinian family out of their home, only to let loose a bulldozer on the House. A member of the family was a boy about 8 to 10 years old. His father restrained him by his shoulders to keep him from getting in trouble with the soldiers. He made this noise as if there was a bomb inside him that exploded. I thought to myself, I have never seen such rage before and this boy will grow up to fight zionists for depriving him of his humanity.
I see the situation in Gaza, as a settlement of an account that is way overdue and unfortunately, it is being used by the Anglosaxons to replace their collapsing system of exploitation with a newer and much more exploiting system. The method is to start WW3, to break America, Russia and China.
The Hydra lives In City of London and the English people are too weak to eliminate it.
Netanyahu doesn't have time. Israel overall has not had a stable government literally for years - and a big part of it was Netanyahu maneuvering to stay out of jail by staying in government. So long as Netanyahu is prime minister, he won't get convicted of the 60+ crimes he is accused of, but he is absolutely being blamed for the debacle of the Hamas attack.
This is why Israel is likely to do something particularly stupid - and convert what is a failure and tragedy into a potentially existential fight.
How do you reconcile the "Ukraine is running out of manpower/artillery" with their continued ability to mount attacks, offensives, etc? I've always felt that the support the West has given is far deeper than people realize and they have a lot of combat power left. Even the destroyed armor - and there is a lot of it - doesn't approach 30-40% of what they have been given and so there are I would say at least 2 more "counteroffensives" worth of equipment still lurking behind the lines.
Rybar's reporting has turned to dog$hit in the last several months, they may as well be a UA channel at this point.
On Avdeevka - does Ru have an analog of the USAF bunker buster bombs? Wiki shows something but nothing I've heard referenced during the war. It seems like artillery / tank fire is more or less useless against the fortifications. Am sure Ru has a plan for making it stick, we will see over the next weeks if it works or not.
Certainly the support in many ways will be in th future revealed to be far greater than we ever imagined. However, keep in mind the attacks at least mentioned here are still relatively minor ones all things considered. We're talking a few companies at a time, nothing like WW2 level with divisions engaging divisions.
That being said, I wrote a few reports ago that up to 10 new brigades are being slowly created. A new update yesterday stated that at least 5 were being created in various stages.
Recall that any country still has hundreds of thousands or millions of people reaching the age of 18 every year, that means huge new pools of cannon fodder will continue to be available.
The areas where I think Western support will one day be revealed to be much greater than we imagined is in the use of mercenaries and boots on the ground in "advisor" roles far closer and on the frontline than we thought.
But as for equipment, I think Ukraine still has plenty left, even tanks. It's just all a matter of perspective. Is it a lot compared to Russia, or compared to what they started with? No. But it's still at least 1000-1500 light armors left, and potentially upwards of 300-500 tanks left but some pro-Ukrainian sources list them as having 800-1000 tanks.
Also one small update was that all 31 Abrams M1a1 from the U.S. have allegedly been fully delivered to Ukraine now as of this week as well.
The thing is, 500-1000 tanks is very small if you intend to go on offensives because you can lose that in a few weeks. But once Ukraine chooses to dig in and turtle up then play defensively, the amount of equipment they have left can still stretch out a long ways because in defensive positions it can be preserved for much longer.
On Rybar, most people myself included agree. Recently they really jumped the shark and we can no longer count on them for serious stuff, at least not without major cross-referencing of other sources.
Russia has bunker busters but the problem is most of them are *bombs* like the Kab-1500 series rather than glidebombs/missiles, i.e. they have to be dropped from fairly short range.
For missiles they generally had some dual purpose missiles that can do bunker buster roles like Kh-22s and the newer Kh-101s and a couple others. If you saw the video I posted a few reports ago about the start of the SMO, Ukraine showed a deep bunker built in Soviet times that was "supposed to withstand nuclear explosions" and it was penetrated and completely wrecked (everyone inside killed) by some kind of Russian bunker busters in the opening of the SMO last year. They showed the wreckage of the missiles but didn't say what it was. Just eye-balling it, to me it seemed too small for Iskander and appeared to potentially be Kalibr sized which means it could maybe be the Kh-101 penetrator warhead.
But I don't know if they're willing to waste Kh-101s on the fortifications unless they have exact intel where they are.
Thanks for that. It does temper the claims of "Ukraine has nothing left" from some commentators. Long way to go
It could be less than that. My personal calculation was 300-500 tanks at the most but some have it 800+. I'm not pompous enough to say mine is the most accurate. As for light armor the issue is, that's almost infinite around the world. Particularly IMVs like MRAPS and all that stuff, I mean U.S. alone has like 8-10k of them not even counting other countries. And IFV/ICV/APC there are still thousands to be sourced all around the world. It's the MBT tanks that's the problem and not much left in the world to give.
But honestly if all you have is thousands of IFV/ICV/APC (models that don't even have ATGMs like Bradley TOWs) then you won't get far if your opponent has plentiful heavy armor.
That's why my main concern is how much MBTs they have, I don't really even care about their light armor, at a certain point it will be worthless.
Any arbitrary tank number (be it 300 or 800) calculations should be split into categories.
1. There are serviceable tanks ready to go (probably a few low hundreds).
2. There are would-be serviceable tanks which were damaged and recovered and will be available in short-mid term (probably a similar number to active tanks, or even a bit higher)
3. There are tanks half-destroyed or dysfunctional, which are still a good source of parts or could be rebuilt. These could number in hundreds too.
4. Also, as with Russia, Ukraine also had a good stock of reserve tanks. While most of those capable of being reactivated in fact were (and are now in categories 1-3), there are also additional tanks which need a lot of work to be reactivated and are of 1950's-1980's versions. Some of these were sent to Poland/Czechia/Slovakia/Bulgaria to be modernized and reactivated. Some of them might be still left rotting in some backyard in some of these countries. Reserves of these countries should be counted into this number. That means a few hundred tanks on top of what Ukraine had.
5. There are also western tanks supplied from western inventories/reserves (of all 4 previous categories).
So at the same time, there could be 300-500 tanks which are serviceable or near-term serviceable, there are also these other tanks which might become available later. The number is an open question as many of them now count in the former category (or are already lost), there still could be a substantial number of potentially-serviceable MBTs available of wildly varying quality. How many depends on how much of this reserve was already eaten up. Thus both 300-500 and 800+ (or even higher) numbers can be accurate at the same time, with the caveat that the number of available tanks right now is in the low hundreds.
I had this exact same thought as Bash as I was reading your exemplary sitrep. In this reply you said that the bunker buster type bombs need to dropped from fairly close range but isn’t this coke plant located fairly close to Russian held territory?
Taking the line of thinking further, if it is possible for the Russian Air Force to drop said bombs due the proximate location why can’t they just carpet bomb the whole area.
They could take a page out of the Israeli playbook and give notice to all civilians to leave the city within several days.
Don't confuse Twitter war for real war.
Twitter war is staging small, sometimes damaging but always tactically and strategically irrelevant attacks whether posing for selfies on borders/islands or firing off the latest US gift in a premature emission.
Simplicius: I jumped straight to comments after the first paragraph about Israel readying for a ground invasion (or not). For what it's worth: https://twitter.com/sprinter99800/status/1714776922951995455
"The Israeli army has fully completed all “preparations for the invasion” of Gaza – reports Al-Arabia"
Like all civilians I have been praying that Russia would overcome the NAZI Ukrainian regime fast, so as to deprive them of the time to ‘call up 10 year olds’ and other depraved actions. However I accept that Russia’s first obligation is to its forces, and the long haul and attrition has benefitted Russian forces which are basically intact.
Why would any military advise Israel to advance into Gaza which I understand is more or less the equivalent of the industrial complex in Mariupol, for instance, when they, like Russia, can starve their enemy out? Remember there were civilian hostages in Mariupol too.
Russia of all nations should factor in the false reporting and false flag issues. Think of the ZNP alone.
I appreciate that this is a very competent military commentary, but you must factor in that all Jews and gentiles are in this bag that is being countered by the Islamic world, with the resources we gave them (huge oil revenues for example). We must pump our own oil and deprive them of our own resources (that’s what Thatcher and Reagan did to the USSR - more effective than any war and of course, Russia saved itself).
Christian Russia might be in trouble and isolated in BRICS.
You appreciate that Islam doe not allow apostasy.
I just want to say that were I Israel, I would not think of sending ground forces into Gaza and I would stop shelling. I would keep the borders closed and simple start demolishing that bloody Mosque on Temple Mount - another foot for every shell that lands in Israel from any direction. I would point all my nuks at Mecca.
Why has Egypt and Jordan got a veto on accepting asylum seekers when the Moslem controlled UN forces them on the European world? They HAVE to take the Gazian civilians because they are culpable for every civilian death in Gaza. Israel, like Russia, gave warning and time for civilian evacuation.
Do you ever worry you might be a psychopath?
BTW, Islam is perfectly fine with Christianity, more's the shame. It is the Israelis who are eliminating minority religions - such as Palestinian Christians. I don't suppose a racist moron like yourself has ever considered this, but India is also not Islamic?
If you break the injunction of the Rabbis, and start demolishing Al Aqsa, then the experiment called "Israel" is simply over. The USA cannot airlift into Israel indefinitely, and such an act would unite ALL of Israel's neighbours aganst them.
That blockade on civilians you have a hard-on for? How would Israel itself survive?
If they follow your psychopathic advice, Israelis will get to find out.
Ah, so you don’t understand the main basis of Islam. Neither does Simplicius. You should do a bit of reading about Islam. Anywhere that it once was is considered theirs (so India, Spain, France and now also Britain).
One thing I know for certain, Mohammed was a narcissistic psychopath.
You know nothing for certain.
Christian Russia has NEVER had a problem with BRICS nations. Unless the MI6 or CIA got involved. Duh!
I have no idea what you're talking about, but Russia isn't "Christian." It is a multifaith country with huge numbers of both Muslims and Buddhists.
No shit Sherlock. Read my comment again.
Yes it has. In the 1970s, when moslem terrorists kidnapped Russian "diplomats," the Russians responded by kidnapping the families of the kidnappers and mailing their body parts back to the family until said "diplomats" were released (This type of thing is one reason Russian history in the middle east is a lot less colorful).
The Americans were trying to set up the same type of operation in Lebanon when their ambassador was himself kidnapped. Lol. He was going around trying to find kidnappers for hire to do the same thing for the US when he got kidnapped.
There's something to be said for the more totalitarian nature of Russian society. Everybody isn't running around trying to do what they think is best when in actuality they don't know the whole picture.
There is a bit of nuance that you're missing. Within the Islamist movement, you have factions. The version you're describing above and in other comments is the Takfiri i.e. ISIS faction. The "Islamic world" is hardly a monolithic entity; and the likes of ISIS would rather take out MBS than Netenyahu for example. As you get into the weeds, its actually a convoluted mess - Hamas and ISIS hate eachother, Al Qaeda and ISIS hate each other, Sunnis and Shiites don't get along, and so on. The real power in the so-called Islamic world actually comes from Arab monarchies & dictatorships (gulf countries etc) and so their religion is largely a secondary trait.
That is not me defending the faith or its adherents. I'm indifferent to it, and tend to take the position that in general a bit of religion in society can be healthy, but a lot tends to end up in disasters, and that includes the various modern pagan religions such as ESG, DEI, CRT, and so on
It is interesting how Shia Iran is a very good friend with Sunni Syria and how Shia Iraq had no issues with launching a war against a fellow Shia Iran in 1980's. Or how suddenly they're BFF with Sunni Saudi Arabia which only recently wanted to destroy a fellow Sunni Syria. Meanwhile, all 4 of them are secular countries in reality.
In reality, Muslims of various sects get along quite well by themselves. Stories about how they hate each other and can't get along because ***insert some reason*** were largely invented by outsiders to excuse some horrendous foreign intervention in their lands. Conflicts between Muslims exist, but they're of the same nature as conflicts between other people - mostly political.
Saddams Baath party was a sunni entity, not Shia. Your overall point is otherwise correct, these are quasi secular states and will, when pressed, close ranks of needed. Iran and Saudis rapprochement is the best example. A true economic union in the gulf countries would mean 200mn in one market. Something the others will work to prevent at all costs
And Assad's Baath party in Syria is Alawite, not Sunni. The population is still predominantly Sunni. Both governments are driven by their domestic majority (and at least in the case of Syria, we can tell that the government is largely supported by the population despite being "different"). Safe to say, the current situation in Islamic world does not support the idea that various Muslim sects can't get along with each other, but it supports the idea of the opposite.
So you are a run of the mill anti-Moslem bigot, now please stop polluting these comments with your bigotry and BS.
Russia has time on its side - and it is using this time to ratchet up the pressure on Ukrainian resources and society.
Either the Ukrainian people recognize the losing situation they are in and do something about their government, or Russia will keep rolling forward.
If Israel destroys Temple Mount then that would get Shiite and Sunni to join together and Israel will have a real fight on its hands. They won’t be slaughtering unarmed civilians, but very pissed off Muslims. Good lord you come across as a ghoul wanting to starve civilians and especially children. And taking Gaza civilians will complete Israel’s ethnic cleansing. That’s why Egypt hasn’t opened its border.
Re Khinzals on Mig 31 "It’s a tad strange given that Russia has had Bastion/Bal ship-killer coastal defense missiles in Tartus and has no need for Kinzhals but who knows."
Maybe there is a fear they Bastions could be overwhelmed and the Khinzal equipped Migs are a further defensive layer.
*Shrugs*.
Could be that they basically believe Kinzhals to be unstoppable by ships because ship radars don't really point up and a ballistic missile would come straight down onto the ship in its blind spot, at crazy speeds, whereas the Oniks / P800s from Bastion do the standard sea-skimming stuff ships are relatively prepared for or at least expect and radars are honed for.
I think it's more like Russia wants to actually SHOW a show of force, simply having coastal defenses which you cannot show off like you can a plane cannot have the same psychological and political effect that deploying migs would.
USN ship radars were designed with Kh-22s in mind, so they're definitely looking upwards a lot.
But more importantly, patrolling with Kinzhals with an intention to cover the Mediterranean would require at least a quiet backdoor Turkish approval. Not that Turks would be able to do anything about it, but shooting missiles through their airspace would give the West an excuse to hit Turks at least politically and economically. They already sort-of sided with Russia and China over the Gaza thing.
Even if the radars look up and see a Khinzal approaching it can't be stopped. All it will achieve is the radar operator shitting himself for the few seconds left of his miserable life.
I don't think the kinzhals are meant as anti-ship missiles. Rather i think they will be used against drones/reconnaissance aircraft that continues doing flybys of crimea/sevastopol and always coincides with a ukrainian attack.
Khinzals are overkill for a drone aren't they? Even a huge drone such as a Reaper can be taken out with smaller and less expensive air to air missiles.
It is for sneak from behind attack, although very unlikely, since if there was ever an attack against US carrier, it will "highly likely" coming from either Hezbollah / Iran. Of course we can't excluded Israel from doing anything stupid they love to do... Carrying out missile attack from Lebanese territory and blame Hezbollah for it.
Perhaps those defences were not designed to handle TWO entire US carrier groups on their own? This is an astounding amount of hardware and firepower threatening Lebanese civilians.
Fighterbomber's theory to me is most plausible:
A group of 2 x MIG 31 + 4 Su27 as excort + A50U take about half of the sky above Black Sea to patrol. Maybe it is a good excuse to posture and gain points with Arabs and deny NATO intelligence assets space to to their aerial recon at the same time.
"SPEAK SOFTLY (actively cultivate diplomacy & negotiation) BUT CARRY A BIG STICK
OFFER FORMAL BOTH-SIDES-NOW, EQUAL-TIME, RECORDED & PUBLISHED DIALOGUE, not just to National Leaders but to all citizens as an international cumulative process. In dialogue & debate we capture the narrative, more precisely to humane aims than with the stick, even though essential as the RIGHT-TO-DEFEND. At the bottom of the pyramid, these dialogues widely spread have more power than from the top-down.
'INDIGENOUS' (Latin 'self-generating') COUNCIL PROCESS: A healthy society prioritizes Dialogue to raise issues Positive for Agreement or for Conflict Resolution as a 'dialectic' ('both-sided') right & obligation among all people from individual, friends, family, extended-family, housing complex, village, city, region, nation. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/d-participatory-structure/1-both-sides-now-equal-time-recorded-dialogues
We've all the Right & Obligation to Defend oppressed, such as Palestinians, who’ve suffered over 100 years of violent western Oligarch commanded US, French, British-empires. International colonial parasites fester, finance, arm & train European Ashkenazi Israel, Irgun, Stern-gang, Lehi illegal invasion & murder of Palestinians with 'genocide' (UN definition = 'removing people from or destroying the means of livelihood). Hamas' actions are based on realities during 150 years of violent aggressive invasion displacing & killing millions of Palestinians & more injured, through Israel's ongoing stealing the means of decent healthy livelihood basics of adequate water, food, orchards, 10s of 1000s of years ancestral lands.
CONVENING DIALOGUES AT EVERY LEVEL
Military right & obligation to defend is crude, involving deaths of many innocents. It’s up to the rest of us to help Palestinians & all people, convene Both-sides-now & embarrass those who carry false cruel ideologies, prejudices & Oligarch planted indoctrination. Clarify misinformation dialectically.
The reactive Right to defend, which Mohandas Gandhi advocated, is also best combined with the cultivation of positive-proactive Right & Responsibility of 'indigenous' (Latin 'self-generating') COUNCIL-PROCESS. India & Gandhi, within the 'Swadeshi' (Hindi 'indigenous' aka 'self-sufficiency') movement, cultivated 'SATYAGRAHA' (Hindi 'Truth-search') to positively & constructively bring together India's diverse peoples, religions, castes, friends & foes in Both-sides-now, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogues. These formal dialogues are part of what brought India unity to economically employ strengths, meet needs & thereby disable the foreign colonial parasite nations. When people hear both-sides of issues presented simultaneously, they are more easily convinced & will act with confidence for having heard the best of both-sides put forward.
Human mind works 'dialectically' ('both-sided') in contrasting & comparing diverse points of view, similar to the way the human eye & other senses compose a 3-D working image or concept from separate slightly different pictures from each eye as 2-D sensory inputs. The difference between both eyes are composed in the Neural Cortex to produce the 3-D image, which is associated with other confirming or altering hearing from the 2 ears, smell from 2 nostrils, tactile data from skin feeling & kinetic data from our 2 arms, 2 legs & sides of our bodies. Socrates as a disillusioned soldier turned pacifist founded 'Academia' (Athens 'Garden of Academus') centered around 'Dialectic' formal Both-sided, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogue among students, teachers, citizens
TRANSCENDING FROM RAMPANT INTELLECTUAL COWARDICE. Western society is based on Oligarch owned institutional submission in Finance, Media, Religion, Education, Military-Industrial, Legislative, Judicial & Pharma-med COMPLEX. Engaging all in mindful 'DEBATE' (French 'de' = 'undo' + 'bate' = 'the-fight'). Mohandas Gandhi stated, "Non-violence springs from love, cowardice from hate. Non-violence always suffers, cowardice would always inflict suffering. Non-violence & cowardice go ill together. I can imagine a fully armed man to be at heart a COWARD." Gandhi is speaking here to the intelligent mind of the soldier as an active contributor to his or her community, society & ultimately to the international conversation of war & peace.
CONVERTING MAINSTREAM & SOCIAL MEDIA FROM MONO-TO-DIALOGUE
https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/d-participatory-structure/1-communication-converting-social-media-from-mono-to-dialogue-libya