It seems like the third time I’m starting a column with the report that Israel has cold feet. But this time there’s far more substantiation for it. Credible reports state that Israel’s true reason for getting cold feet is that it fears Hezbollah’s threat of activating the northern front if Israel were to commit into the bog of Gaza.
Watching UN members turn their backs on usa speaker was impressive . It went from Nikki Haley saying we are taking names and counting vote to usa being ignored
I've done reading, looks like Simplicius playing it safe this time by giving Israeli 20% part of the article. Well. Not much happening lately in Gaza Front.
War in Gaza must stop and Ordinary Israeli should make arrest of Netanyahu and his cronies, then ship all Zionist and Ultra Nationalist, the main culprits behind every disaster in Palestine all this time, send them back to where they were from, it will left 7 - 8 Millions people who can still assimilated and live normally among their neighbors.
But don't worry, it won't happen and this war will only escalate because Netanyahu government cared so much about fulfilling Talmudic prophecy.
The Israeli economy basically grinds to a complete halt when they mobilize. They cannot stay mobilized for long; in 1967 Nasser had been massing troops in Sinai for a month forcing Israel to keep itself mobilized. Israel basically had to attack or demobilize; to stay mobilized would have mean economic ruin. That might be a strategy here. If Hamas and Hizbollah can keep a threatening enough posture Israel maybe forced to act (one way or another) in a diplomatically disastrous way or face economic collapse. How much and how long would the US be willing and able to foot the bill for the Israeli economy?
The war in Israel is no more than an insurgency operation, on a strip of land too small to offer any cover to the insurgents, or even any of the kind of problems the Americans faced during the occupation of Iraq.
The war in the Ukraine is a couple of orders of magnitude larger in scale, its effects will have way more consequence on human destinies, and is much more significant/interesting to survey from a military point of view.
Employing time and acting methodically makes perfect sense for Israel. Surprise isn't an element in the op and, yes, they need to have resources organized to be prepared to respond on multiple fronts. Hamas isn't going to be slaying any more civilians in the meantime, aside possibly from the people they kidnapped. And provided they can't be resupplied Hamas' ability to resist will diminish with time. Israel is no doubt further degrading Hamas' personnel, logistics, comms, mobility, etc. with ongoing Gaza strikes in the meantime. While Hamas should be expected to engage (this time facing highly motivated geared up professional soldiers not surprised, defenseless civilians) they will enter any fight weakened with fatigue, short supplies, degraded comms, a broken command chain, etc. Prediction...the op will take time and come with costs but Hamas' isolated remainder will ultimately succumb in their untenable position.
I don't know, but wonder, if Israel couldn't simply cut Hamas off in Northern Gaza and wait as their water, food, fuel, etc. run out, while allowing noncombatants to move to the south after being screened (tragic that even Egypt and Jordan are rejecting entry of Palestinians from Gaza). They already have two sides of the perimeter secured and another is the sea. Establish a robust perimeter to the south, excavating and destroying any tunnels crossing the perimeter. Holding the perimeter would require fewer resources and cost fewer lives, perhaps very few. Let time and failing resources do the work.
How do you reconcile the "Ukraine is running out of manpower/artillery" with their continued ability to mount attacks, offensives, etc? I've always felt that the support the West has given is far deeper than people realize and they have a lot of combat power left. Even the destroyed armor - and there is a lot of it - doesn't approach 30-40% of what they have been given and so there are I would say at least 2 more "counteroffensives" worth of equipment still lurking behind the lines.
Rybar's reporting has turned to dog$hit in the last several months, they may as well be a UA channel at this point.
On Avdeevka - does Ru have an analog of the USAF bunker buster bombs? Wiki shows something but nothing I've heard referenced during the war. It seems like artillery / tank fire is more or less useless against the fortifications. Am sure Ru has a plan for making it stick, we will see over the next weeks if it works or not.
Like all civilians I have been praying that Russia would overcome the NAZI Ukrainian regime fast, so as to deprive them of the time to ‘call up 10 year olds’ and other depraved actions. However I accept that Russia’s first obligation is to its forces, and the long haul and attrition has benefitted Russian forces which are basically intact.
Why would any military advise Israel to advance into Gaza which I understand is more or less the equivalent of the industrial complex in Mariupol, for instance, when they, like Russia, can starve their enemy out? Remember there were civilian hostages in Mariupol too.
Russia of all nations should factor in the false reporting and false flag issues. Think of the ZNP alone.
I appreciate that this is a very competent military commentary, but you must factor in that all Jews and gentiles are in this bag that is being countered by the Islamic world, with the resources we gave them (huge oil revenues for example). We must pump our own oil and deprive them of our own resources (that’s what Thatcher and Reagan did to the USSR - more effective than any war and of course, Russia saved itself).
Christian Russia might be in trouble and isolated in BRICS.
You appreciate that Islam doe not allow apostasy.
I just want to say that were I Israel, I would not think of sending ground forces into Gaza and I would stop shelling. I would keep the borders closed and simple start demolishing that bloody Mosque on Temple Mount - another foot for every shell that lands in Israel from any direction. I would point all my nuks at Mecca.
Why has Egypt and Jordan got a veto on accepting asylum seekers when the Moslem controlled UN forces them on the European world? They HAVE to take the Gazian civilians because they are culpable for every civilian death in Gaza. Israel, like Russia, gave warning and time for civilian evacuation.
Re Khinzals on Mig 31 "It’s a tad strange given that Russia has had Bastion/Bal ship-killer coastal defense missiles in Tartus and has no need for Kinzhals but who knows."
Maybe there is a fear they Bastions could be overwhelmed and the Khinzal equipped Migs are a further defensive layer.
"SPEAK SOFTLY (actively cultivate diplomacy & negotiation) BUT CARRY A BIG STICK
OFFER FORMAL BOTH-SIDES-NOW, EQUAL-TIME, RECORDED & PUBLISHED DIALOGUE, not just to National Leaders but to all citizens as an international cumulative process. In dialogue & debate we capture the narrative, more precisely to humane aims than with the stick, even though essential as the RIGHT-TO-DEFEND. At the bottom of the pyramid, these dialogues widely spread have more power than from the top-down.
We've all the Right & Obligation to Defend oppressed, such as Palestinians, who’ve suffered over 100 years of violent western Oligarch commanded US, French, British-empires. International colonial parasites fester, finance, arm & train European Ashkenazi Israel, Irgun, Stern-gang, Lehi illegal invasion & murder of Palestinians with 'genocide' (UN definition = 'removing people from or destroying the means of livelihood). Hamas' actions are based on realities during 150 years of violent aggressive invasion displacing & killing millions of Palestinians & more injured, through Israel's ongoing stealing the means of decent healthy livelihood basics of adequate water, food, orchards, 10s of 1000s of years ancestral lands.
CONVENING DIALOGUES AT EVERY LEVEL
Military right & obligation to defend is crude, involving deaths of many innocents. It’s up to the rest of us to help Palestinians & all people, convene Both-sides-now & embarrass those who carry false cruel ideologies, prejudices & Oligarch planted indoctrination. Clarify misinformation dialectically.
The reactive Right to defend, which Mohandas Gandhi advocated, is also best combined with the cultivation of positive-proactive Right & Responsibility of 'indigenous' (Latin 'self-generating') COUNCIL-PROCESS. India & Gandhi, within the 'Swadeshi' (Hindi 'indigenous' aka 'self-sufficiency') movement, cultivated 'SATYAGRAHA' (Hindi 'Truth-search') to positively & constructively bring together India's diverse peoples, religions, castes, friends & foes in Both-sides-now, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogues. These formal dialogues are part of what brought India unity to economically employ strengths, meet needs & thereby disable the foreign colonial parasite nations. When people hear both-sides of issues presented simultaneously, they are more easily convinced & will act with confidence for having heard the best of both-sides put forward.
Human mind works 'dialectically' ('both-sided') in contrasting & comparing diverse points of view, similar to the way the human eye & other senses compose a 3-D working image or concept from separate slightly different pictures from each eye as 2-D sensory inputs. The difference between both eyes are composed in the Neural Cortex to produce the 3-D image, which is associated with other confirming or altering hearing from the 2 ears, smell from 2 nostrils, tactile data from skin feeling & kinetic data from our 2 arms, 2 legs & sides of our bodies. Socrates as a disillusioned soldier turned pacifist founded 'Academia' (Athens 'Garden of Academus') centered around 'Dialectic' formal Both-sided, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogue among students, teachers, citizens
TRANSCENDING FROM RAMPANT INTELLECTUAL COWARDICE. Western society is based on Oligarch owned institutional submission in Finance, Media, Religion, Education, Military-Industrial, Legislative, Judicial & Pharma-med COMPLEX. Engaging all in mindful 'DEBATE' (French 'de' = 'undo' + 'bate' = 'the-fight'). Mohandas Gandhi stated, "Non-violence springs from love, cowardice from hate. Non-violence always suffers, cowardice would always inflict suffering. Non-violence & cowardice go ill together. I can imagine a fully armed man to be at heart a COWARD." Gandhi is speaking here to the intelligent mind of the soldier as an active contributor to his or her community, society & ultimately to the international conversation of war & peace.
CONVERTING MAINSTREAM & SOCIAL MEDIA FROM MONO-TO-DIALOGUE
Right when I was gonna go to bed. Well nix that idea thanks Simp!
Watching UN members turn their backs on usa speaker was impressive . It went from Nikki Haley saying we are taking names and counting vote to usa being ignored
I've done reading, looks like Simplicius playing it safe this time by giving Israeli 20% part of the article. Well. Not much happening lately in Gaza Front.
War in Gaza must stop and Ordinary Israeli should make arrest of Netanyahu and his cronies, then ship all Zionist and Ultra Nationalist, the main culprits behind every disaster in Palestine all this time, send them back to where they were from, it will left 7 - 8 Millions people who can still assimilated and live normally among their neighbors.
But don't worry, it won't happen and this war will only escalate because Netanyahu government cared so much about fulfilling Talmudic prophecy.
The Israeli economy basically grinds to a complete halt when they mobilize. They cannot stay mobilized for long; in 1967 Nasser had been massing troops in Sinai for a month forcing Israel to keep itself mobilized. Israel basically had to attack or demobilize; to stay mobilized would have mean economic ruin. That might be a strategy here. If Hamas and Hizbollah can keep a threatening enough posture Israel maybe forced to act (one way or another) in a diplomatically disastrous way or face economic collapse. How much and how long would the US be willing and able to foot the bill for the Israeli economy?
Been waiting for this. Thank you!!
Dear god, that picture of Failinsky...
How much coke is he inhaling?
Such hubris "no way our guys didn't know about it".
I haven't read your SITREP yet , but you are a hard worker, i give you that.
Savvy exposition and discernment. Learned quite a few things, thank you!
The war in Israel is no more than an insurgency operation, on a strip of land too small to offer any cover to the insurgents, or even any of the kind of problems the Americans faced during the occupation of Iraq.
The war in the Ukraine is a couple of orders of magnitude larger in scale, its effects will have way more consequence on human destinies, and is much more significant/interesting to survey from a military point of view.
Employing time and acting methodically makes perfect sense for Israel. Surprise isn't an element in the op and, yes, they need to have resources organized to be prepared to respond on multiple fronts. Hamas isn't going to be slaying any more civilians in the meantime, aside possibly from the people they kidnapped. And provided they can't be resupplied Hamas' ability to resist will diminish with time. Israel is no doubt further degrading Hamas' personnel, logistics, comms, mobility, etc. with ongoing Gaza strikes in the meantime. While Hamas should be expected to engage (this time facing highly motivated geared up professional soldiers not surprised, defenseless civilians) they will enter any fight weakened with fatigue, short supplies, degraded comms, a broken command chain, etc. Prediction...the op will take time and come with costs but Hamas' isolated remainder will ultimately succumb in their untenable position.
I don't know, but wonder, if Israel couldn't simply cut Hamas off in Northern Gaza and wait as their water, food, fuel, etc. run out, while allowing noncombatants to move to the south after being screened (tragic that even Egypt and Jordan are rejecting entry of Palestinians from Gaza). They already have two sides of the perimeter secured and another is the sea. Establish a robust perimeter to the south, excavating and destroying any tunnels crossing the perimeter. Holding the perimeter would require fewer resources and cost fewer lives, perhaps very few. Let time and failing resources do the work.
How do you reconcile the "Ukraine is running out of manpower/artillery" with their continued ability to mount attacks, offensives, etc? I've always felt that the support the West has given is far deeper than people realize and they have a lot of combat power left. Even the destroyed armor - and there is a lot of it - doesn't approach 30-40% of what they have been given and so there are I would say at least 2 more "counteroffensives" worth of equipment still lurking behind the lines.
Rybar's reporting has turned to dog$hit in the last several months, they may as well be a UA channel at this point.
On Avdeevka - does Ru have an analog of the USAF bunker buster bombs? Wiki shows something but nothing I've heard referenced during the war. It seems like artillery / tank fire is more or less useless against the fortifications. Am sure Ru has a plan for making it stick, we will see over the next weeks if it works or not.
Simplicius: I jumped straight to comments after the first paragraph about Israel readying for a ground invasion (or not). For what it's worth: https://twitter.com/sprinter99800/status/1714776922951995455
"The Israeli army has fully completed all “preparations for the invasion” of Gaza – reports Al-Arabia"
Like all civilians I have been praying that Russia would overcome the NAZI Ukrainian regime fast, so as to deprive them of the time to ‘call up 10 year olds’ and other depraved actions. However I accept that Russia’s first obligation is to its forces, and the long haul and attrition has benefitted Russian forces which are basically intact.
Why would any military advise Israel to advance into Gaza which I understand is more or less the equivalent of the industrial complex in Mariupol, for instance, when they, like Russia, can starve their enemy out? Remember there were civilian hostages in Mariupol too.
Russia of all nations should factor in the false reporting and false flag issues. Think of the ZNP alone.
I appreciate that this is a very competent military commentary, but you must factor in that all Jews and gentiles are in this bag that is being countered by the Islamic world, with the resources we gave them (huge oil revenues for example). We must pump our own oil and deprive them of our own resources (that’s what Thatcher and Reagan did to the USSR - more effective than any war and of course, Russia saved itself).
Christian Russia might be in trouble and isolated in BRICS.
You appreciate that Islam doe not allow apostasy.
I just want to say that were I Israel, I would not think of sending ground forces into Gaza and I would stop shelling. I would keep the borders closed and simple start demolishing that bloody Mosque on Temple Mount - another foot for every shell that lands in Israel from any direction. I would point all my nuks at Mecca.
Why has Egypt and Jordan got a veto on accepting asylum seekers when the Moslem controlled UN forces them on the European world? They HAVE to take the Gazian civilians because they are culpable for every civilian death in Gaza. Israel, like Russia, gave warning and time for civilian evacuation.
Re Khinzals on Mig 31 "It’s a tad strange given that Russia has had Bastion/Bal ship-killer coastal defense missiles in Tartus and has no need for Kinzhals but who knows."
Maybe there is a fear they Bastions could be overwhelmed and the Khinzal equipped Migs are a further defensive layer.
"SPEAK SOFTLY (actively cultivate diplomacy & negotiation) BUT CARRY A BIG STICK
OFFER FORMAL BOTH-SIDES-NOW, EQUAL-TIME, RECORDED & PUBLISHED DIALOGUE, not just to National Leaders but to all citizens as an international cumulative process. In dialogue & debate we capture the narrative, more precisely to humane aims than with the stick, even though essential as the RIGHT-TO-DEFEND. At the bottom of the pyramid, these dialogues widely spread have more power than from the top-down.
'INDIGENOUS' (Latin 'self-generating') COUNCIL PROCESS: A healthy society prioritizes Dialogue to raise issues Positive for Agreement or for Conflict Resolution as a 'dialectic' ('both-sided') right & obligation among all people from individual, friends, family, extended-family, housing complex, village, city, region, nation. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/d-participatory-structure/1-both-sides-now-equal-time-recorded-dialogues
We've all the Right & Obligation to Defend oppressed, such as Palestinians, who’ve suffered over 100 years of violent western Oligarch commanded US, French, British-empires. International colonial parasites fester, finance, arm & train European Ashkenazi Israel, Irgun, Stern-gang, Lehi illegal invasion & murder of Palestinians with 'genocide' (UN definition = 'removing people from or destroying the means of livelihood). Hamas' actions are based on realities during 150 years of violent aggressive invasion displacing & killing millions of Palestinians & more injured, through Israel's ongoing stealing the means of decent healthy livelihood basics of adequate water, food, orchards, 10s of 1000s of years ancestral lands.
CONVENING DIALOGUES AT EVERY LEVEL
Military right & obligation to defend is crude, involving deaths of many innocents. It’s up to the rest of us to help Palestinians & all people, convene Both-sides-now & embarrass those who carry false cruel ideologies, prejudices & Oligarch planted indoctrination. Clarify misinformation dialectically.
The reactive Right to defend, which Mohandas Gandhi advocated, is also best combined with the cultivation of positive-proactive Right & Responsibility of 'indigenous' (Latin 'self-generating') COUNCIL-PROCESS. India & Gandhi, within the 'Swadeshi' (Hindi 'indigenous' aka 'self-sufficiency') movement, cultivated 'SATYAGRAHA' (Hindi 'Truth-search') to positively & constructively bring together India's diverse peoples, religions, castes, friends & foes in Both-sides-now, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogues. These formal dialogues are part of what brought India unity to economically employ strengths, meet needs & thereby disable the foreign colonial parasite nations. When people hear both-sides of issues presented simultaneously, they are more easily convinced & will act with confidence for having heard the best of both-sides put forward.
Human mind works 'dialectically' ('both-sided') in contrasting & comparing diverse points of view, similar to the way the human eye & other senses compose a 3-D working image or concept from separate slightly different pictures from each eye as 2-D sensory inputs. The difference between both eyes are composed in the Neural Cortex to produce the 3-D image, which is associated with other confirming or altering hearing from the 2 ears, smell from 2 nostrils, tactile data from skin feeling & kinetic data from our 2 arms, 2 legs & sides of our bodies. Socrates as a disillusioned soldier turned pacifist founded 'Academia' (Athens 'Garden of Academus') centered around 'Dialectic' formal Both-sided, Equal-time, Recorded & Published Dialogue among students, teachers, citizens
TRANSCENDING FROM RAMPANT INTELLECTUAL COWARDICE. Western society is based on Oligarch owned institutional submission in Finance, Media, Religion, Education, Military-Industrial, Legislative, Judicial & Pharma-med COMPLEX. Engaging all in mindful 'DEBATE' (French 'de' = 'undo' + 'bate' = 'the-fight'). Mohandas Gandhi stated, "Non-violence springs from love, cowardice from hate. Non-violence always suffers, cowardice would always inflict suffering. Non-violence & cowardice go ill together. I can imagine a fully armed man to be at heart a COWARD." Gandhi is speaking here to the intelligent mind of the soldier as an active contributor to his or her community, society & ultimately to the international conversation of war & peace.
CONVERTING MAINSTREAM & SOCIAL MEDIA FROM MONO-TO-DIALOGUE
https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/d-participatory-structure/1-communication-converting-social-media-from-mono-to-dialogue-libya