Today, I wanted to discuss rumors that Russia may be gearing up for a large new mobilization of troops. I think this is a possibility, but I’ll go through each point for and against the idea. Firstly, the rumors stem from a couple random posts like this one:
Would love to see a list of the most delusional bloodthirsty GAE/NATO warmongers and some kind of debate between you and them. Mick Ryan of Futura Doctrina Substack has some nutty takes. Adam Kinzinger, Lindsay Graham, Alexander Vindman, Victoria Nuland, Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and the big guy are up there too.
That first video, regarding Andrey Kartapolov, was interesting. The poll graphs more so. It makes sense to create deterrence, it's also the art of negotiation, and, if there's no war, it furthers nationalism which Russia needs as a tool to overcome its citizens' loss of their relationship with Europe.
Ritter said one is needed if they want to take Odessa etc. but i wasnt listening fully.
I would assume you only need new men for rotating troops, i dont think they drive the tank home to see the wife and kids on the days off, pretty sure at least.
Thanks for the article - I think Strelkov and Prigozhin are completely different - like a planet and a moon - I didn't even think it was a coup that Prigozhin carried out - it was a protest. And we don't know how frustrating it might be to be constantly short changed and told you're a wildcard so that's why you don't get more ammo - so frustrating - the war between Shoigu and Prigozhin is old. I think they both make Russia stronger and better and I'm worried aobut the Wagner absence. I don't actaully know if Putin behaved that well..but I do think you're right that now the Kremlin has been shaken up a bit. I've even wondered if Shoigu has been replaced - the strength of the onslaughter has changed since then. General Amageddon being more in control - I've just wondered.
> My suspicion is that most of these people suffer from severe megalomania and narcissism to the point where, even once their narrative gets completely destroyed, they’re unable to ever admit being wrong, and so they must continue doubling down. [...] they’re forced to confabulate progressively more phony and unhinged conspiracy theories ...
See Simp, the latest implausible doubling down is Moscow's allegedly certain war to come against Turkey, because the "Sultan" freed the Azov cadres
But there is paywall so we cannot really flesh this new threat out in a clear and thorough manner
Inspired by many Simplicius's brilliant analyses, 'Operation Unthinkable: World War III,' essay delves into the historical relationship between the U.S. and Russia. Using Winston Churchill's wish for an atom bomb attack on the Soviet Union, I explore the genesis of WW3, from the era of Russian America to the present U.S. madness and the war they wage against Russia on the bloody fields of Ukraine. I hope you’ll find it worthy of the intrusion here.
Great write up. Touches most of the major considerations. My guess is Russia is preparing itself for the capacity to mobilize a large number of troops. Last year was a valuable dry run.
The variable will be Poland. What they do will will probably be the trigger Russia's decision to mobilize. Otherwise I'd expect them to continue their "stealth mobilization". I also wouldn't dismiss the idea of the new reserve army being deployed to Belarus if they're able to continue signing up 40k men a month. This could backfill as the reserve force.
As for equipment, a grain for guns deal with the NORKs make a ton of sense for both countries. With the grain deal falling apart last week it's a valid solution.
Your representations of Russian public opinion give me hope that the war can be resolved through diplomatic means. The mood in Western Europe - and especially Germany - is definately shifting. It might not result in a change of goverment but the pressure from below is growing and will over long result in a shift of the government´s position. If Russia is then still ready I believe we might see an end of this tragic conflict in the coming year.
In Germany the AFD went from 10% in the polls to now over 20% in just a few months. The legacy parties are shitting their pants. Germany is not Italy or France where sudden shifts are not that rare. Germany used to have a very stable party system and it now is falling apart. Here what the leader of the AFD said yesterday in his opening statement at the AFD Germany convention:
"We have to care and strive for good relations with all countries in the world, instead of imposing Western values on them. We say no to economic war and sanctions and yes to free and peaceful change with all the world. We demand that other countries respect our way of life. Conversely, we also let other countries live as they see fit and as they want to. This is what I call respect, and only on this can a peaceful order be built: Respect and peace, city, interference and war.
And I demand respect for Ukraine as well as respect for Russia. The fact is that we are no longer importing cheap gas from Russia is not a reaction to the war in Ukraine. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck has used the war as an opportunity to stop imports.
But without the war, citizens would not have put up with us cutting the lifeline of our industry. He knew that. Now Nordstream, blown up by the U.S. and or Ukraine, is at the bottom of the ocean, and we're importing expensive, dirty fracked gas from America."
Furthermore he said: "The USA has driven the wedge into the continent, and the Polish government is driving it deeper and deeper with an aggressive policy towards Germany and Russia. And our task, dear friends, is to remove this wedge. We must renew the network of lifelines and transport routes in Europe and Asia. This and nothing else we owe to the world, dear friends."
I believe the attack on Nordstream will backfire even if the AFD is made illegal. Because if they do that and opt for open dictatorship Germany will be thrown into such convulsions that she will not be able to support NATO anymore. I don´t say that lightly. It is an open secret that the army has an above average share of AFD supporters and that holds for the police a well.
Jul 29, 2023·edited Jul 29, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Re: “Let’s also state the reminder that the current conflict represents the largest mobilization of manpower Russia has ever experienced since WW2. In every previous conflict going back to Afghanistan, Russia has utilized at most around 110k simultaneous troops at any given time…”
Perhaps in 1968 it wasn’t a case of mobilization but merely deployment of standing force. Even so, the number was staggering:
“Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
Peak strength:[9]
350,000–400,000 Soviet troops, 70,000–80,000 from Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary[10]
6,300 tanks[11] - Wikipedia”
And that was to suppress mere 15 million population.
The "Draft" is prudent preparation--Be Prepared. I fail to see how any troop additions made by Putin/Russia that it will be an election issue. How could a challenger argue they aren't needed?!
I don't think the election will have any bearing on Putin's thinking about the timing of a mobilization. He has made potentially unpopular decisions in the past and carried through on them, regardless of public opinion, when he though they were right. Russian people are not going to change leadership for almost any reason in the middle of a war, and the political structures prevent it from mattering on local or regional levels.
The criticism of people expounding worst-case scenarios hits home for me. I do not believe the current U.S. financial system is sustainable, and believe it will end up in economic collapse. I see all kinds of systemic faults in the American system that I don't think can be fixed. Maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees.
Has NATO implicitly foregone ‘conventional warfare’ which is grossly more manpower, resource and capital intensive? Meager signs of mobilization or increased industrial capacity. Has it gambled totally on nuclear deterrence and schizoid guerilla tactics etc.?
Is Russian playing into the hands of NATO with these costly mobilizations?
There is conversation about Boris Kagarlitsky over at Moon of Alabama. Do you have any thoughts on that? Personally I think he was being a little insensitive to the present dilemma, but also that given how much sudden support he's received in the west by likely captured Left outlets like Jacobin and New Republic, that there must be a US or UK intelligence connection that the Russians caught onto. I don't think that his statements on the Kerch Bridge rose to the level of inciting or approving of terror without further incriminating evidence that isn't public (yet).
Would love to see a list of the most delusional bloodthirsty GAE/NATO warmongers and some kind of debate between you and them. Mick Ryan of Futura Doctrina Substack has some nutty takes. Adam Kinzinger, Lindsay Graham, Alexander Vindman, Victoria Nuland, Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and the big guy are up there too.
That first video, regarding Andrey Kartapolov, was interesting. The poll graphs more so. It makes sense to create deterrence, it's also the art of negotiation, and, if there's no war, it furthers nationalism which Russia needs as a tool to overcome its citizens' loss of their relationship with Europe.
Ritter said one is needed if they want to take Odessa etc. but i wasnt listening fully.
I would assume you only need new men for rotating troops, i dont think they drive the tank home to see the wife and kids on the days off, pretty sure at least.
congrats on 4K at bitchute, btw
Thanks for the article - I think Strelkov and Prigozhin are completely different - like a planet and a moon - I didn't even think it was a coup that Prigozhin carried out - it was a protest. And we don't know how frustrating it might be to be constantly short changed and told you're a wildcard so that's why you don't get more ammo - so frustrating - the war between Shoigu and Prigozhin is old. I think they both make Russia stronger and better and I'm worried aobut the Wagner absence. I don't actaully know if Putin behaved that well..but I do think you're right that now the Kremlin has been shaken up a bit. I've even wondered if Shoigu has been replaced - the strength of the onslaughter has changed since then. General Amageddon being more in control - I've just wondered.
> My suspicion is that most of these people suffer from severe megalomania and narcissism to the point where, even once their narrative gets completely destroyed, they’re unable to ever admit being wrong, and so they must continue doubling down. [...] they’re forced to confabulate progressively more phony and unhinged conspiracy theories ...
See Simp, the latest implausible doubling down is Moscow's allegedly certain war to come against Turkey, because the "Sultan" freed the Azov cadres
But there is paywall so we cannot really flesh this new threat out in a clear and thorough manner
We are left with JimJonesque hints and nuances
Inspired by many Simplicius's brilliant analyses, 'Operation Unthinkable: World War III,' essay delves into the historical relationship between the U.S. and Russia. Using Winston Churchill's wish for an atom bomb attack on the Soviet Union, I explore the genesis of WW3, from the era of Russian America to the present U.S. madness and the war they wage against Russia on the bloody fields of Ukraine. I hope you’ll find it worthy of the intrusion here.
https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/the-operation-unthinkable-world-war-b6b
Great write up. Touches most of the major considerations. My guess is Russia is preparing itself for the capacity to mobilize a large number of troops. Last year was a valuable dry run.
The variable will be Poland. What they do will will probably be the trigger Russia's decision to mobilize. Otherwise I'd expect them to continue their "stealth mobilization". I also wouldn't dismiss the idea of the new reserve army being deployed to Belarus if they're able to continue signing up 40k men a month. This could backfill as the reserve force.
As for equipment, a grain for guns deal with the NORKs make a ton of sense for both countries. With the grain deal falling apart last week it's a valid solution.
Your representations of Russian public opinion give me hope that the war can be resolved through diplomatic means. The mood in Western Europe - and especially Germany - is definately shifting. It might not result in a change of goverment but the pressure from below is growing and will over long result in a shift of the government´s position. If Russia is then still ready I believe we might see an end of this tragic conflict in the coming year.
In Germany the AFD went from 10% in the polls to now over 20% in just a few months. The legacy parties are shitting their pants. Germany is not Italy or France where sudden shifts are not that rare. Germany used to have a very stable party system and it now is falling apart. Here what the leader of the AFD said yesterday in his opening statement at the AFD Germany convention:
"We have to care and strive for good relations with all countries in the world, instead of imposing Western values on them. We say no to economic war and sanctions and yes to free and peaceful change with all the world. We demand that other countries respect our way of life. Conversely, we also let other countries live as they see fit and as they want to. This is what I call respect, and only on this can a peaceful order be built: Respect and peace, city, interference and war.
And I demand respect for Ukraine as well as respect for Russia. The fact is that we are no longer importing cheap gas from Russia is not a reaction to the war in Ukraine. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck has used the war as an opportunity to stop imports.
But without the war, citizens would not have put up with us cutting the lifeline of our industry. He knew that. Now Nordstream, blown up by the U.S. and or Ukraine, is at the bottom of the ocean, and we're importing expensive, dirty fracked gas from America."
Furthermore he said: "The USA has driven the wedge into the continent, and the Polish government is driving it deeper and deeper with an aggressive policy towards Germany and Russia. And our task, dear friends, is to remove this wedge. We must renew the network of lifelines and transport routes in Europe and Asia. This and nothing else we owe to the world, dear friends."
I believe the attack on Nordstream will backfire even if the AFD is made illegal. Because if they do that and opt for open dictatorship Germany will be thrown into such convulsions that she will not be able to support NATO anymore. I don´t say that lightly. It is an open secret that the army has an above average share of AFD supporters and that holds for the police a well.
Man the DPRK can put an a parade like no one else.
Re: “Let’s also state the reminder that the current conflict represents the largest mobilization of manpower Russia has ever experienced since WW2. In every previous conflict going back to Afghanistan, Russia has utilized at most around 110k simultaneous troops at any given time…”
Perhaps in 1968 it wasn’t a case of mobilization but merely deployment of standing force. Even so, the number was staggering:
“Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
Peak strength:[9]
350,000–400,000 Soviet troops, 70,000–80,000 from Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary[10]
6,300 tanks[11] - Wikipedia”
And that was to suppress mere 15 million population.
The "Draft" is prudent preparation--Be Prepared. I fail to see how any troop additions made by Putin/Russia that it will be an election issue. How could a challenger argue they aren't needed?!
Gosh that polling was tiresome! Fortunately, very little about Ukraine was discussed at the Russia-Africa Summit over the past two days as you can see from these two articles, https://karlof1.substack.com/p/russia-africa-summit-or-biden-corruption and https://karlof1.substack.com/p/russia-africa-summit-day-2-leaders
Lots of motivated talk and sense of purpose very much on display.
I don't think the election will have any bearing on Putin's thinking about the timing of a mobilization. He has made potentially unpopular decisions in the past and carried through on them, regardless of public opinion, when he though they were right. Russian people are not going to change leadership for almost any reason in the middle of a war, and the political structures prevent it from mattering on local or regional levels.
The criticism of people expounding worst-case scenarios hits home for me. I do not believe the current U.S. financial system is sustainable, and believe it will end up in economic collapse. I see all kinds of systemic faults in the American system that I don't think can be fixed. Maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees.
Has NATO implicitly foregone ‘conventional warfare’ which is grossly more manpower, resource and capital intensive? Meager signs of mobilization or increased industrial capacity. Has it gambled totally on nuclear deterrence and schizoid guerilla tactics etc.?
Is Russian playing into the hands of NATO with these costly mobilizations?
Simplicius,
There is conversation about Boris Kagarlitsky over at Moon of Alabama. Do you have any thoughts on that? Personally I think he was being a little insensitive to the present dilemma, but also that given how much sudden support he's received in the west by likely captured Left outlets like Jacobin and New Republic, that there must be a US or UK intelligence connection that the Russians caught onto. I don't think that his statements on the Kerch Bridge rose to the level of inciting or approving of terror without further incriminating evidence that isn't public (yet).