Today, I wanted to discuss rumors that Russia may be gearing up for a large new mobilization of troops. I think this is a possibility, but I’ll go through each point for and against the idea.
I had a friend living in S/E Asia in the early 2000s who was an agent/representative for NK industry. He had coloured brochures of everything from gems, to textiles, to military equipment of all types.
NK has done a truly momentous job considering the genocidal US bombed every building they had in the 50ies.
I'm glad to see someone here who has direct experience of North Korea, that's a rare thing, so maybe you (and other commenters of course) could help me with this question.
What can North Korea realistically expect to get from Russia?
The current situation seems to have made a "Seller's Market" for artillery ammunition (152mm Grad/Katyusha rockets etc.). The DPRK has large stockpiles, and they have production facilities, they could be holding a strong hand in their negotiations with Shoigu and Moscow.
Obvious things for Pyongyang to get would be upgrades for their AirForce and air defense, maybe getting some more esoteric devices like Cybersecurity and Electronic Warfare platforms.
BTW, I saw this MSM bit today about DPRK ammo on the battlefield,
Basically they're saying it's all crap. Which is an interesting line to take, because as we learn from Shakespeare;
"In cases of defence 'tis best to weigh The enemy more mighty than he seems: So the proportions of defence are fill'd; Which of a weak or niggardly projection Doth, like a miser, spoil his coat with scanting A little cloth.
basically, if your enemy is firing off crap ammo, why broadcast it? Unless, of course your real goal is to shore up the moral of your own team.
The MSM also say they are trading ammo for food, but I think they have moved far beyond bartering for cabbages and potatoes.
Anyway, I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on the matter.
It still staggers me to realise that the neocons have achieved in 18 months what America's top diplomats spent 75 years successfully avoiding: pushing Russia and China together
Would love to see a list of the most delusional bloodthirsty GAE/NATO warmongers and some kind of debate between you and them. Mick Ryan of Futura Doctrina Substack has some nutty takes. Adam Kinzinger, Lindsay Graham, Alexander Vindman, Victoria Nuland, Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and the big guy are up there too.
It's very difficult to debate when both sides consider their victory to be existential. At that point anything is justifiable to advance your position which makes honesty impossible.
Also I wouldn't put Nuland, Graham, etc. in the same category as Blinken and Sullivan. The former have a real hatred of anything Russian while the latter will just say whatever they need to even if they don't believe it.
That first video, regarding Andrey Kartapolov, was interesting. The poll graphs more so. It makes sense to create deterrence, it's also the art of negotiation, and, if there's no war, it furthers nationalism which Russia needs as a tool to overcome its citizens' loss of their relationship with Europe.
Ritter said one is needed if they want to take Odessa etc. but i wasnt listening fully.
I would assume you only need new men for rotating troops, i dont think they drive the tank home to see the wife and kids on the days off, pretty sure at least.
Thanks for the article - I think Strelkov and Prigozhin are completely different - like a planet and a moon - I didn't even think it was a coup that Prigozhin carried out - it was a protest. And we don't know how frustrating it might be to be constantly short changed and told you're a wildcard so that's why you don't get more ammo - so frustrating - the war between Shoigu and Prigozhin is old. I think they both make Russia stronger and better and I'm worried aobut the Wagner absence. I don't actaully know if Putin behaved that well..but I do think you're right that now the Kremlin has been shaken up a bit. I've even wondered if Shoigu has been replaced - the strength of the onslaughter has changed since then. General Amageddon being more in control - I've just wondered.
You don't conduct a "protest" with soldiers in uniform with automatic weapons, armoured personnel carriers & other heavier weaponry, declaring to march on the capital city. That, my dear, is called an armed insurrection. If that happened in any western country there would be rivers of blood in the streets.
I stand by what I said and you can't overrule it by calling me 'my dear' Every single person on the internet just switched sides when they saw that - now he's a traitor. Makes me sick. They're
doing the same thing to people all the time. 98% of people are fickle and shallow. I think Prigozhin probably is a force to be reckoned with. Not like Strelkov who is an idiot. I don't know what to think about Putin except that probably its all worked out now as best it can.
We are all entitled to our opinions, of course. I was pointing out that a protest with armed units descending on the capital city is not a "protest", it is an armed revolt. Just as Jan 6th Washington DC was actually a protest, in the true sense of the word, & not an "insurrection" as was claimed after. Re; your other points, well, sure, OK, that's what you think. I happen to know Prigozhin is actually an insignificant figure within the Russian power structure, but, hey, think what you what, it's nothing to me.
Unless it's all a psy-op, what he did was the definition of treason, and @Srbalj is stating an accurate description and using the correct terminology for it. People being "fickle and shallow" cannot be debated, the modern human is basically some kind of herd animal. That being true does not change the categorisation of Prigozhin.
> My suspicion is that most of these people suffer from severe megalomania and narcissism to the point where, even once their narrative gets completely destroyed, they’re unable to ever admit being wrong, and so they must continue doubling down. [...] they’re forced to confabulate progressively more phony and unhinged conspiracy theories ...
See Simp, the latest implausible doubling down is Moscow's allegedly certain war to come against Turkey, because the "Sultan" freed the Azov cadres
But there is paywall so we cannot really flesh this new threat out in a clear and thorough manner
...Then the stuff about the track record of predicting the future as proof the quality of an analyst's job is cringe... I mean an analyst for this war should strive to present the facts and the data and well suggest some of the implications yes, but then the beyond-the-basics reader can paint the picture of where this is going by himself.
Although now probably he is right most of the readers are clueless, to see this entire business as a context about who is the best seer that can feed certainty of future events to imbecilic plebs - that take the time to read posts in full by the way - is wholly baffling to me. Maybe it's an American cultural thing.
Maybe the Jim Cramer's prediction debacle when he suggested to buy Bear Sterns 6 days before it went bankrupt, overly impressed our friend right in the midst of his formative years.
I don't know about him, but definitely doesn't strike me as a military type so what's he doing over there apart from "hey! look at me!"
I can talk about what was once known as alt-right... there is a cult leader-followers dynamics to many I'd say most of the personalities in that area.
It was already evident years ago when mostly it was a youtube channels affair, where if you disagreed with the guru the followers would swarm you with insults and dislikes and then you got banned.
Now most of these "content creators" have migrated to Substack and the Jim Jones-esque, sectarian cult dynamics got even more evident due to the paywall they very liberally use to shill on their takes which by the way are always the same.
I understand the value of repetition in order to keep the flame alive and everything, but everything important already got said in Vertigo Politix videos, say, that I think are the pinnacle of what the movement has produced. You can keep them running on a loop even today, and then apply the principles to news events by yourself really, don't need to pay grifters to do that for you, not rocket science definitely.
Perhaps someone hyper-credentialled as Seymour Hersh could realistically blanket his page under a big paywall as if he were the new york times, but these guys ... come on they would write or talk to each other in their podcasts for free anyway
Inspired by many Simplicius's brilliant analyses, 'Operation Unthinkable: World War III,' essay delves into the historical relationship between the U.S. and Russia. Using Winston Churchill's wish for an atom bomb attack on the Soviet Union, I explore the genesis of WW3, from the era of Russian America to the present U.S. madness and the war they wage against Russia on the bloody fields of Ukraine. I hope you’ll find it worthy of the intrusion here.
Great write up. Touches most of the major considerations. My guess is Russia is preparing itself for the capacity to mobilize a large number of troops. Last year was a valuable dry run.
The variable will be Poland. What they do will will probably be the trigger Russia's decision to mobilize. Otherwise I'd expect them to continue their "stealth mobilization". I also wouldn't dismiss the idea of the new reserve army being deployed to Belarus if they're able to continue signing up 40k men a month. This could backfill as the reserve force.
As for equipment, a grain for guns deal with the NORKs make a ton of sense for both countries. With the grain deal falling apart last week it's a valid solution.
Your representations of Russian public opinion give me hope that the war can be resolved through diplomatic means. The mood in Western Europe - and especially Germany - is definately shifting. It might not result in a change of goverment but the pressure from below is growing and will over long result in a shift of the government´s position. If Russia is then still ready I believe we might see an end of this tragic conflict in the coming year.
In Germany the AFD went from 10% in the polls to now over 20% in just a few months. The legacy parties are shitting their pants. Germany is not Italy or France where sudden shifts are not that rare. Germany used to have a very stable party system and it now is falling apart. Here what the leader of the AFD said yesterday in his opening statement at the AFD Germany convention:
"We have to care and strive for good relations with all countries in the world, instead of imposing Western values on them. We say no to economic war and sanctions and yes to free and peaceful change with all the world. We demand that other countries respect our way of life. Conversely, we also let other countries live as they see fit and as they want to. This is what I call respect, and only on this can a peaceful order be built: Respect and peace, city, interference and war.
And I demand respect for Ukraine as well as respect for Russia. The fact is that we are no longer importing cheap gas from Russia is not a reaction to the war in Ukraine. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck has used the war as an opportunity to stop imports.
But without the war, citizens would not have put up with us cutting the lifeline of our industry. He knew that. Now Nordstream, blown up by the U.S. and or Ukraine, is at the bottom of the ocean, and we're importing expensive, dirty fracked gas from America."
Furthermore he said: "The USA has driven the wedge into the continent, and the Polish government is driving it deeper and deeper with an aggressive policy towards Germany and Russia. And our task, dear friends, is to remove this wedge. We must renew the network of lifelines and transport routes in Europe and Asia. This and nothing else we owe to the world, dear friends."
I believe the attack on Nordstream will backfire even if the AFD is made illegal. Because if they do that and opt for open dictatorship Germany will be thrown into such convulsions that she will not be able to support NATO anymore. I don´t say that lightly. It is an open secret that the army has an above average share of AFD supporters and that holds for the police a well.
Nobody asks Germany or German people anything. The sooner you accept that as the fact the better it will be for all well meaning Europeans. The decision making centres are across the ocean and democracy counts for very little in the overal eqasion. This war will not stop untill elites decide that's it's enough.
By the way: any government falls if there are sufficient people in the streets. Historically it is about 3% of the population. In Germany´s case that would be 2,4 million. Many more people than that work in industry in Germany. Take BASF in Ludwigshafen. It is the biggest chemical plant in the world and a wonder in efficiency. 40 000 people work there. BASF has declared not to invest there anymore and last month 1700 people were laid off. There´s an explosive mood there and not only there. A friend works in an ABB electrical equipment plant with 1200 employees.
This plant is not energyintensive and therefore not (yet) in danger. But the mood is explosive there too. The union barely manages to keep the anger under control. I believe there is huge social unrest ahead. Bigger than the yellow wests in France. It will be interesting to see if the government will survive this.
You are right about Germany for sure. I am in industry and BASF is one of my vendors. Anyway it showd in the polls and germans who had never heard of Afd 6 months ago are talking about voting for them now
I am a not German that works in the German industry and I hate to disagree with you but my experience is that maybe 80% of the people working here are hardcore mainstream, 10% are middle mainstream and only around 10% of the people think in voting AfD or supporting anything that does not come from America.
IG Metall workers of the German industry are privileged workers in all the extend of the work. The best salaries and conditions.
No change will come from here I am afraid.
And as other comment says, as soon as you realise that German people (or French or Italian) don’t have a word to say the best.
Being realistic, Germans will never take the streets as hard as French, and you see how France people didn’t achieve anything,
I am not talking about democracy. I don´t think that there´s a chance that the AFD can come to power. But the party is having an impact. And on the long term you can´t conduct the war without Germany. If things veer out of control in Germany this indeed will enter into the equations of the big power overseas. Sure they will try to prevent that. But I don´t think big brother in DC will be able to control things for ever and once chaos in whatever form breaks out it will have a reality of its own. I think it might even be decisive.
Finally: crisis (and war is a form of crisis) has always been and always will be a pan-european phenomenen. There were outliers (Sweden, Switzerland) and the crisis might have taken different forms and extents (collectivisation in the USSR and depression in the West) but is has always effected the whole continent. In some important ways the Ukraine / Russia war is a civil war and I expect we are heading for something like the in Europe as well. The hegemon overseasand, the empire of chaos has done a lot to sow the seeds of desaster and the blowback will hit it a well.
Here, in the US, since we outsourced all our industries for a cheap buck so the CEOs can get millions in bonuses, now we must steal the industries from somewhere. From Germany, of course, and it would be curious to see the stats on German businesses leaving for the US. And of course, from Taiwan. Near Phoenix, a huge chip plant is being finished, and all it needs to bring the technology over from Taiwan. I bet all these military commotions/maneuvers are meant to scary the crap out of Taiwanese to push for a move to Arizona. Wasn't it Nancy/whoever saying that they'd rather bomb this chip-maker in Taiwan than let the Chinese get their hands on it?
This chip plant is a PR stunt; promised subsidies - not delivered, cost over runs, staffing problems, the whole gamut of what you'd expect in an economy dominated by financial grifters. The supply chain issues from covid shutdowns produced lots of talk and some reports, but action? I'd agree with Andrei Martyanov who this morning laid out that at the most fundamental level the US cannot organise appropriately; ditto for its vassal states.
But the Taiwanese won't know such "minute" technicalities. For them, PR would paint them a rosy picture. The goal is for their whole enterprise to move to AZ and become the US chip manufacturer.
For much of 2022 every monday evening there were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of Germany illegaly protesting against the Covid measures. Maybe you haven´t heard of that. Anyhow that was certainly a big factor why they finally decided against a vaccine mandate. In Germany there´s a tight link between the green energy policies and the refusal to get any more Russian gas. "We don´t have a choice if we want to save the world". The Greens are also the party of war. This is much bigger than Covid and it is effecting every one.
Jeez don't take everything I say so personally, yes I'm aware many protested vax mandates and such, and as a pureblood I appreciate their efforts. They're also a minority and Germany did have a saying during Covid: Gas the unvaxxed. Germany sadly does have things to answer for historically, and that'll be weaponized against it's citizens for many generations to come I'm afraid.
It was indeed a small minority. At least in the West. But not in the East. I was somewhat involved in this fight and outspoken as I am I get a sense of the mood of the population. This is much, much bigger. I am really astonished at the breath of popular opposition. There are people of whom I had never expected that who are now getting seriously riled up. Everything merges together: Covid, green energy, the war and the official narrative rapidly loses ground. We might be heading for a new 1989.
We can hope, but the extent of the clean out is stupefying; the media, politics, every state institution, business, education. There's a long list of broken/rigged institutions. As the energy and resource crises rip up the financial band aids collapse becomes a real possibility. At that point all these people who organise color revolutions could end up in one.
All mainstream German political parties are in agreement that the AfD or any party that challenges American hegemony in general or the war in Ukraine in particular can never reach power.
Even if the AfD were to sweep into office with an absolute majority today, the German bureaucracy would fight them tooth and nail, every step of the way.
Yes superb. I particularly loved all the smiling faces. Those lady soldiers looked so friendly...... and yet I know they would happily cut your throat on a battlefield to save ammunition.
They all looked malnourished. Be real, only the pilots looked close to being properly fed. Yes, I'm jealous of their BMI, and would pick their bodies over mine any day, but don't be blind to the obvious.
Jul 29, 2023·edited Jul 29, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Re: “Let’s also state the reminder that the current conflict represents the largest mobilization of manpower Russia has ever experienced since WW2. In every previous conflict going back to Afghanistan, Russia has utilized at most around 110k simultaneous troops at any given time…”
Perhaps in 1968 it wasn’t a case of mobilization but merely deployment of standing force. Even so, the number was staggering:
“Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
Peak strength:[9]
350,000–400,000 Soviet troops, 70,000–80,000 from Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary[10]
6,300 tanks[11] - Wikipedia”
And that was to suppress mere 15 million population.
The "Draft" is prudent preparation--Be Prepared. I fail to see how any troop additions made by Putin/Russia that it will be an election issue. How could a challenger argue they aren't needed?!
I agree about the polling; the sample size for a country as large as the Russian Federation seems dubious. After all the talk about the existential threat to the RF; the population understands the threat and this poll would dispel that, c'mon there aren't that many liberals in RF? And with Putin's approval rating going from 80 to 90 percent.
I don't think the election will have any bearing on Putin's thinking about the timing of a mobilization. He has made potentially unpopular decisions in the past and carried through on them, regardless of public opinion, when he though they were right. Russian people are not going to change leadership for almost any reason in the middle of a war, and the political structures prevent it from mattering on local or regional levels.
The criticism of people expounding worst-case scenarios hits home for me. I do not believe the current U.S. financial system is sustainable, and believe it will end up in economic collapse. I see all kinds of systemic faults in the American system that I don't think can be fixed. Maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees.
I agree to the extent that I don't think any opponent would actually stand a chance anyway against Putin even if using the mobilization as a bayonet. If it was absolutely necessary Putin would do it no matter what. I just think that all things being equal, if the mobilization is not really a necessity or an urgency, they'd prefer to do it after since it's simply less messy that way. But if there's a need for it then you're right I don't think elections would matter.
Has NATO implicitly foregone ‘conventional warfare’ which is grossly more manpower, resource and capital intensive? Meager signs of mobilization or increased industrial capacity. Has it gambled totally on nuclear deterrence and schizoid guerilla tactics etc.?
Is Russian playing into the hands of NATO with these costly mobilizations?
No because Ukraine itself is playing with the rules of conventional warfare, as long as that's true Russia has no choice but to meet them and beat them in that regard. I would hardly put much stock in the idea of any of these mobilizations seriously factoring in a greater war with NATO, the focus is Ukraine while having enough to send in an emergency to other possible "future Ukraines" like Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.
America may have millions of little Ukrainian flag icons on every respectable member of society’s twitter account 🇺🇦 but all of them put together won’t translate to willingness to actually make sacrifices to support the war. Empty the stockpiles, fine, but mobilization? Impossible. America’s armed forces are far too busy integrating transgender officers into the front line. God save us, because nobody else will.
This is probably too conspiratorial even for these times, but maybe one of Putin's aims with this possible mobilisation IS to get Biden to try and bring back the draft. Russians have a sense of humour too!
Good point I'll give you ALL of that. And yet, media manipulation, censorship, propaganda, education, cultural control, Endowments for Democracy. Oh yes, US/EU certainly have all of THOSE soft-power bases covered. Now if only we actually MADE a damn thing, we might actually have something here!
NATO = USA. USA has most certainly not foregone conventional warfare but it never intended to win in Ukraine. The war was designed to bleed Russia enough to cause public discontent and eventual regime change, but the plan went awry when the Ukrainians decided to fight a real war instead of the endless guerilla war USA wanted. Russia would be playing into USA's hands if it escalated too much. Best approach is probably wait until EU loses interest, which creates risk of NATO breakup. USA will drop Ukraine like a hot potato rather than risk losing NATO. At that point, Ukraine situation will be hopeless and someone in the civilian or military government will grab control and negotiate with Russia. Who knows what the final result will be. But Russia is definitely best off taking as little Ukrainian territory as possible and focus on ensuring Ukraine is a powerless vassal. Ordinary Ukrainian people think in terms of territory (peasant mentality). Smart geopolitical strategists think in terms of nailing down permanent vassals.
I think the only people in the West who would seriously contemplate a nuclear response to Russian mobilisation and impending total defeat in Ukraine are Nuland and Co. They are the REAL mentalists here and need to be neutralised for the sake of the world.
There is conversation about Boris Kagarlitsky over at Moon of Alabama. Do you have any thoughts on that? Personally I think he was being a little insensitive to the present dilemma, but also that given how much sudden support he's received in the west by likely captured Left outlets like Jacobin and New Republic, that there must be a US or UK intelligence connection that the Russians caught onto. I don't think that his statements on the Kerch Bridge rose to the level of inciting or approving of terror without further incriminating evidence that isn't public (yet).
Krargilitsky is 5th column, a self-described Marxist who once sat on the board of Verso Press, a left wing publishing outlet in Britain, & got kicked off, I believe by Tariq Ali. He does what all leftist haters of Russia do, he makes a false equivalence between Russia & the US led west. So when Russia intervenes militarily in Syria to save the country, for Kargilitsky this is "imperialism" equivalent to the US invasions of Iraq, 1990/2003. He's not worth talking about, other than Russia should arrest him & imprison him for life in my opinion, & strip him of any assets he may own.
I have no problem with him on the basis of his leftist/Marxist views if they are genuine and in most cases if someone has an opinion let them have it, but is it the case that this guy has such a large following that he's a threat on the basis of only his beliefs and statements? Imprisoning him for life sounds a little harsh. Seems like another Navalny to me, perhaps a mosquito to be swatted and shipped outside of the country where he can spout his opinions in obscurity.
P.S. I agree with you on most of your comment - other than imprisonment for life. The way that Russia was invited to help in Syria is nothing like how the USA goes all over the world destroying countries.
That's precisely the point, he claims to be left/Marxist, which means he ought to assume an anti-imperialist, as well as an anti-capitalist/pro-socialist position as a matter of principle. So how does he qualify Russia's intervention in Syria, which was support for a country that was a victim of imperialism? It is pure hypocrisy. Or, take another example, how would Kargilitsky qualify Cuba's involvement in Angola back in the day? He wouldn't qualify it as "Cuban imperialism" because he approved of the government there - so he's taking a position based on personal bias, not principle. I don't care for left/Marxist ideology myself, I believe it to have been quite an evil, but that is an entirely separate matter, if he is a Marcxist, then why does he not uphold those principles? And I would say it is because he has no principles at all, he is a fraud.
I don't disagree with your *logic* at all. 100% in agreement. I just don't think someone should be sent to prison for life because they're a hypocrite and a nuisance. I guess buried in my first reply was an implied question: How much influence does this guy even have in Russia? It's my understanding that the Russian Communist Party is actually pretty well represented. Do they act on what this guy says? I genuinely don't know. Kind of like how Navalny is portrayed here in the West as some hugely popular and influential political actor when in reality he's got almost zero support from the Russian people.
Kargilitsky has no influence in Russia at all, none. He's known amongst leftists in the west, Draitser & people like him, who also are frauds. Kargilitsky has no connection with Russia's communist party, none, & he would not condone them or them him - if that makes sense. For Kargilitsky, the communist party in Russia would be "Putin stooges", that is how he would characterize them. The prison thing is hyperbole, I just think Russia should deal with traitors harshly, but it is not really for me to say. You can relax, people like me who have worked professionally in the criminal justice system tend to take hard line views of such things, but I have no influence over any government. More's the pity.
If he's anything like Draitser, he's a rat. I hate that guy. Really have no idea how he makes a living; I can't imagine anyone actually tunes into his videos and there's no way Counterpunch pays him more than a few hundred dollars per article.
I'm only passingly familiar with him and his case, having mostly dismissed him (justifiably or not) as a standard run-of-the-mill 5th columnist.
I'm more informed on the wider 'theories' regarding the recent string of arrests, which stem from another 5th columnist in Russia named Alexander Gusov who runs the propaganda outlet known as Cheka-OGPU. He himself has been arrested before, and his latest narrative which has made the rounds in all the Russian 5th column underground networks revolves around another popular Russian figure named Oleg Matveychev who allegedly sent some type of note to the Kremlin in the wake of the Wagner rebellion, warning them to begin jailing all dissidents like Strelkov. It's claimed that after this urgent appeal, the Kremlin took heed and began a new initiative of 'tightening the ship' and a new low tolerance for dissidents like Kargalitsky, etc., etc.
This Gusov character was previously linked to the infamous 'Cello Case' TG channel controversy. You can do a deep dive on that stuff if you're interested.
Allegedly Kargalitsky was jailed for a video about the bridge attack but I haven't seen the video yet, do you have a link to it?
But you're right that they wouldn't just do that to anyone for a small thing like that unless there was something deeper. Most public intellectuals of that sort, particularly academics with large internationally institutional accreditations/connections are all compromised by Western intel, which particularly runs high in academia. So I'm sure he's on the fringe of being a 'foreign agent' in that regard. I'd like to know more info on it though, if there's actual details to alleged past indiscretions.
Thanks for providing some feedback. I'll definitely check out the Cello Case thing.
And yes, given how the Western "leftist" punditry like Draitser and Jacobin have all seemed to circulate the same exact (as in worded exactly the same) statement on his arrest, I have to assume he has Western intel connections. The left in the US has been infiltrated, captured, and rendered meaningless for a number of years now - primarily by the USG.
No I hadn't even heard of this video. That would be interesting though. I'll look around. This is the Telegram posts that the Western sources are citing. No video. https://t.me/kagarlitsky/1010
If the machine translation is accurate, the last two paragraphs seem to imply that perhaps the bridge was *intentionally* damaged so that corrupt contractors can continue making money from the repairs. At least that's one way to read it. Or that the bridge is just an ego project for Putin and that it was irresponsible to build it in the first place since it will be a continued target for sabotage (which also would be a continued source of money for corrupt contractors, I guess with ties to Putin). Then at the end he hints that certain government positions will be changing shortly. Reference to Putin and his inner circle being ousted? Putin's supporters in the Duma? I have no clue. But the message is definitely subversive and/or telling of a grander conspiracy in the works.
... What?
I had a friend living in S/E Asia in the early 2000s who was an agent/representative for NK industry. He had coloured brochures of everything from gems, to textiles, to military equipment of all types.
NK has done a truly momentous job considering the genocidal US bombed every building they had in the 50ies.
I hope you aren't implying that sanctions against North Korea didn't work either, Grr! :)
I would never doubt the word of Uncle Sam.
I'm glad to see someone here who has direct experience of North Korea, that's a rare thing, so maybe you (and other commenters of course) could help me with this question.
What can North Korea realistically expect to get from Russia?
The current situation seems to have made a "Seller's Market" for artillery ammunition (152mm Grad/Katyusha rockets etc.). The DPRK has large stockpiles, and they have production facilities, they could be holding a strong hand in their negotiations with Shoigu and Moscow.
Obvious things for Pyongyang to get would be upgrades for their AirForce and air defense, maybe getting some more esoteric devices like Cybersecurity and Electronic Warfare platforms.
BTW, I saw this MSM bit today about DPRK ammo on the battlefield,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-got-its-hands-on-north-korean-rockets-that-troops-say-are-wildly-unpredictable-and-do-crazy-things-and-they-re-lobbing-them-at-the-russians/ar-AA1evgAf
Basically they're saying it's all crap. Which is an interesting line to take, because as we learn from Shakespeare;
"In cases of defence 'tis best to weigh The enemy more mighty than he seems: So the proportions of defence are fill'd; Which of a weak or niggardly projection Doth, like a miser, spoil his coat with scanting A little cloth.
basically, if your enemy is firing off crap ammo, why broadcast it? Unless, of course your real goal is to shore up the moral of your own team.
The MSM also say they are trading ammo for food, but I think they have moved far beyond bartering for cabbages and potatoes.
Anyway, I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on the matter.
Very well said.Basically a further deteriation of the western narrative,Russia,china,N.Korea bad,Europe good.
It still staggers me to realise that the neocons have achieved in 18 months what America's top diplomats spent 75 years successfully avoiding: pushing Russia and China together
Would love to see a list of the most delusional bloodthirsty GAE/NATO warmongers and some kind of debate between you and them. Mick Ryan of Futura Doctrina Substack has some nutty takes. Adam Kinzinger, Lindsay Graham, Alexander Vindman, Victoria Nuland, Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and the big guy are up there too.
It's very difficult to debate when both sides consider their victory to be existential. At that point anything is justifiable to advance your position which makes honesty impossible.
Also I wouldn't put Nuland, Graham, etc. in the same category as Blinken and Sullivan. The former have a real hatred of anything Russian while the latter will just say whatever they need to even if they don't believe it.
Same with Milley and Austen. They are stupid but you can see that they don't believe what they are being forced to say
LOL yeah lets make THAT instead of these stupid alt-movie mock ups! Great comment!
It would be a pretty long list...don't forget people like Sean Hannity....
Well I did do a few 'take downs' or refutations of some of the names you listed, in previous articles. Here's one on Mick Ryan: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/western-experts-new-fear-russia-is
I can't remember which articles were the others, I think I did some on Kofman/Rob Lee, etc., as well
Thanks Simplicius - I must have missed that one. Keep up the incredible work, comrade!
Thanks you too comrade
I think a researched article showing just how biased some of the above and who is funding them would be great Simplicious.
Many don’t realise just how much these guys pockets are being lined.
Imagine being trapped on a desert island with that lot. I predict cannibalism and human sacrifice within a week.
That first video, regarding Andrey Kartapolov, was interesting. The poll graphs more so. It makes sense to create deterrence, it's also the art of negotiation, and, if there's no war, it furthers nationalism which Russia needs as a tool to overcome its citizens' loss of their relationship with Europe.
Ritter said one is needed if they want to take Odessa etc. but i wasnt listening fully.
I would assume you only need new men for rotating troops, i dont think they drive the tank home to see the wife and kids on the days off, pretty sure at least.
congrats on 4K at bitchute, btw
Thanks buddy
Thanks for the article - I think Strelkov and Prigozhin are completely different - like a planet and a moon - I didn't even think it was a coup that Prigozhin carried out - it was a protest. And we don't know how frustrating it might be to be constantly short changed and told you're a wildcard so that's why you don't get more ammo - so frustrating - the war between Shoigu and Prigozhin is old. I think they both make Russia stronger and better and I'm worried aobut the Wagner absence. I don't actaully know if Putin behaved that well..but I do think you're right that now the Kremlin has been shaken up a bit. I've even wondered if Shoigu has been replaced - the strength of the onslaughter has changed since then. General Amageddon being more in control - I've just wondered.
You don't conduct a "protest" with soldiers in uniform with automatic weapons, armoured personnel carriers & other heavier weaponry, declaring to march on the capital city. That, my dear, is called an armed insurrection. If that happened in any western country there would be rivers of blood in the streets.
I stand by what I said and you can't overrule it by calling me 'my dear' Every single person on the internet just switched sides when they saw that - now he's a traitor. Makes me sick. They're
doing the same thing to people all the time. 98% of people are fickle and shallow. I think Prigozhin probably is a force to be reckoned with. Not like Strelkov who is an idiot. I don't know what to think about Putin except that probably its all worked out now as best it can.
We are all entitled to our opinions, of course. I was pointing out that a protest with armed units descending on the capital city is not a "protest", it is an armed revolt. Just as Jan 6th Washington DC was actually a protest, in the true sense of the word, & not an "insurrection" as was claimed after. Re; your other points, well, sure, OK, that's what you think. I happen to know Prigozhin is actually an insignificant figure within the Russian power structure, but, hey, think what you what, it's nothing to me.
Unless it's all a psy-op, what he did was the definition of treason, and @Srbalj is stating an accurate description and using the correct terminology for it. People being "fickle and shallow" cannot be debated, the modern human is basically some kind of herd animal. That being true does not change the categorisation of Prigozhin.
> My suspicion is that most of these people suffer from severe megalomania and narcissism to the point where, even once their narrative gets completely destroyed, they’re unable to ever admit being wrong, and so they must continue doubling down. [...] they’re forced to confabulate progressively more phony and unhinged conspiracy theories ...
See Simp, the latest implausible doubling down is Moscow's allegedly certain war to come against Turkey, because the "Sultan" freed the Azov cadres
But there is paywall so we cannot really flesh this new threat out in a clear and thorough manner
We are left with JimJonesque hints and nuances
Yeah that Turkey stuff sounds like a pretty desperate ploy for clicks or to generate fake drama
...Then the stuff about the track record of predicting the future as proof the quality of an analyst's job is cringe... I mean an analyst for this war should strive to present the facts and the data and well suggest some of the implications yes, but then the beyond-the-basics reader can paint the picture of where this is going by himself.
Although now probably he is right most of the readers are clueless, to see this entire business as a context about who is the best seer that can feed certainty of future events to imbecilic plebs - that take the time to read posts in full by the way - is wholly baffling to me. Maybe it's an American cultural thing.
Maybe the Jim Cramer's prediction debacle when he suggested to buy Bear Sterns 6 days before it went bankrupt, overly impressed our friend right in the midst of his formative years.
I include "Tehas" Bentley in this utopian narcissist group.
I don't know about him, but definitely doesn't strike me as a military type so what's he doing over there apart from "hey! look at me!"
I can talk about what was once known as alt-right... there is a cult leader-followers dynamics to many I'd say most of the personalities in that area.
It was already evident years ago when mostly it was a youtube channels affair, where if you disagreed with the guru the followers would swarm you with insults and dislikes and then you got banned.
Now most of these "content creators" have migrated to Substack and the Jim Jones-esque, sectarian cult dynamics got even more evident due to the paywall they very liberally use to shill on their takes which by the way are always the same.
I understand the value of repetition in order to keep the flame alive and everything, but everything important already got said in Vertigo Politix videos, say, that I think are the pinnacle of what the movement has produced. You can keep them running on a loop even today, and then apply the principles to news events by yourself really, don't need to pay grifters to do that for you, not rocket science definitely.
Perhaps someone hyper-credentialled as Seymour Hersh could realistically blanket his page under a big paywall as if he were the new york times, but these guys ... come on they would write or talk to each other in their podcasts for free anyway
Inspired by many Simplicius's brilliant analyses, 'Operation Unthinkable: World War III,' essay delves into the historical relationship between the U.S. and Russia. Using Winston Churchill's wish for an atom bomb attack on the Soviet Union, I explore the genesis of WW3, from the era of Russian America to the present U.S. madness and the war they wage against Russia on the bloody fields of Ukraine. I hope you’ll find it worthy of the intrusion here.
https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/the-operation-unthinkable-world-war-b6b
Thx will try to read if I have time
Great write up. Touches most of the major considerations. My guess is Russia is preparing itself for the capacity to mobilize a large number of troops. Last year was a valuable dry run.
The variable will be Poland. What they do will will probably be the trigger Russia's decision to mobilize. Otherwise I'd expect them to continue their "stealth mobilization". I also wouldn't dismiss the idea of the new reserve army being deployed to Belarus if they're able to continue signing up 40k men a month. This could backfill as the reserve force.
As for equipment, a grain for guns deal with the NORKs make a ton of sense for both countries. With the grain deal falling apart last week it's a valid solution.
Your representations of Russian public opinion give me hope that the war can be resolved through diplomatic means. The mood in Western Europe - and especially Germany - is definately shifting. It might not result in a change of goverment but the pressure from below is growing and will over long result in a shift of the government´s position. If Russia is then still ready I believe we might see an end of this tragic conflict in the coming year.
In Germany the AFD went from 10% in the polls to now over 20% in just a few months. The legacy parties are shitting their pants. Germany is not Italy or France where sudden shifts are not that rare. Germany used to have a very stable party system and it now is falling apart. Here what the leader of the AFD said yesterday in his opening statement at the AFD Germany convention:
"We have to care and strive for good relations with all countries in the world, instead of imposing Western values on them. We say no to economic war and sanctions and yes to free and peaceful change with all the world. We demand that other countries respect our way of life. Conversely, we also let other countries live as they see fit and as they want to. This is what I call respect, and only on this can a peaceful order be built: Respect and peace, city, interference and war.
And I demand respect for Ukraine as well as respect for Russia. The fact is that we are no longer importing cheap gas from Russia is not a reaction to the war in Ukraine. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck has used the war as an opportunity to stop imports.
But without the war, citizens would not have put up with us cutting the lifeline of our industry. He knew that. Now Nordstream, blown up by the U.S. and or Ukraine, is at the bottom of the ocean, and we're importing expensive, dirty fracked gas from America."
Furthermore he said: "The USA has driven the wedge into the continent, and the Polish government is driving it deeper and deeper with an aggressive policy towards Germany and Russia. And our task, dear friends, is to remove this wedge. We must renew the network of lifelines and transport routes in Europe and Asia. This and nothing else we owe to the world, dear friends."
I believe the attack on Nordstream will backfire even if the AFD is made illegal. Because if they do that and opt for open dictatorship Germany will be thrown into such convulsions that she will not be able to support NATO anymore. I don´t say that lightly. It is an open secret that the army has an above average share of AFD supporters and that holds for the police a well.
Nobody asks Germany or German people anything. The sooner you accept that as the fact the better it will be for all well meaning Europeans. The decision making centres are across the ocean and democracy counts for very little in the overal eqasion. This war will not stop untill elites decide that's it's enough.
Illusion of democracy
By the way: any government falls if there are sufficient people in the streets. Historically it is about 3% of the population. In Germany´s case that would be 2,4 million. Many more people than that work in industry in Germany. Take BASF in Ludwigshafen. It is the biggest chemical plant in the world and a wonder in efficiency. 40 000 people work there. BASF has declared not to invest there anymore and last month 1700 people were laid off. There´s an explosive mood there and not only there. A friend works in an ABB electrical equipment plant with 1200 employees.
This plant is not energyintensive and therefore not (yet) in danger. But the mood is explosive there too. The union barely manages to keep the anger under control. I believe there is huge social unrest ahead. Bigger than the yellow wests in France. It will be interesting to see if the government will survive this.
You are right about Germany for sure. I am in industry and BASF is one of my vendors. Anyway it showd in the polls and germans who had never heard of Afd 6 months ago are talking about voting for them now
I am a not German that works in the German industry and I hate to disagree with you but my experience is that maybe 80% of the people working here are hardcore mainstream, 10% are middle mainstream and only around 10% of the people think in voting AfD or supporting anything that does not come from America.
IG Metall workers of the German industry are privileged workers in all the extend of the work. The best salaries and conditions.
No change will come from here I am afraid.
And as other comment says, as soon as you realise that German people (or French or Italian) don’t have a word to say the best.
Being realistic, Germans will never take the streets as hard as French, and you see how France people didn’t achieve anything,
I am not talking about democracy. I don´t think that there´s a chance that the AFD can come to power. But the party is having an impact. And on the long term you can´t conduct the war without Germany. If things veer out of control in Germany this indeed will enter into the equations of the big power overseas. Sure they will try to prevent that. But I don´t think big brother in DC will be able to control things for ever and once chaos in whatever form breaks out it will have a reality of its own. I think it might even be decisive.
Finally: crisis (and war is a form of crisis) has always been and always will be a pan-european phenomenen. There were outliers (Sweden, Switzerland) and the crisis might have taken different forms and extents (collectivisation in the USSR and depression in the West) but is has always effected the whole continent. In some important ways the Ukraine / Russia war is a civil war and I expect we are heading for something like the in Europe as well. The hegemon overseasand, the empire of chaos has done a lot to sow the seeds of desaster and the blowback will hit it a well.
Dear yolkipalki,
The AfD is controlled opposition!
Have a look at their history.
Here, in the US, since we outsourced all our industries for a cheap buck so the CEOs can get millions in bonuses, now we must steal the industries from somewhere. From Germany, of course, and it would be curious to see the stats on German businesses leaving for the US. And of course, from Taiwan. Near Phoenix, a huge chip plant is being finished, and all it needs to bring the technology over from Taiwan. I bet all these military commotions/maneuvers are meant to scary the crap out of Taiwanese to push for a move to Arizona. Wasn't it Nancy/whoever saying that they'd rather bomb this chip-maker in Taiwan than let the Chinese get their hands on it?
This chip plant is a PR stunt; promised subsidies - not delivered, cost over runs, staffing problems, the whole gamut of what you'd expect in an economy dominated by financial grifters. The supply chain issues from covid shutdowns produced lots of talk and some reports, but action? I'd agree with Andrei Martyanov who this morning laid out that at the most fundamental level the US cannot organise appropriately; ditto for its vassal states.
But the Taiwanese won't know such "minute" technicalities. For them, PR would paint them a rosy picture. The goal is for their whole enterprise to move to AZ and become the US chip manufacturer.
Germany's being deindustrialized they need to get their head out their ass ASAP. Being half German myself all I can say is Fat Chance....
For much of 2022 every monday evening there were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of Germany illegaly protesting against the Covid measures. Maybe you haven´t heard of that. Anyhow that was certainly a big factor why they finally decided against a vaccine mandate. In Germany there´s a tight link between the green energy policies and the refusal to get any more Russian gas. "We don´t have a choice if we want to save the world". The Greens are also the party of war. This is much bigger than Covid and it is effecting every one.
Jeez don't take everything I say so personally, yes I'm aware many protested vax mandates and such, and as a pureblood I appreciate their efforts. They're also a minority and Germany did have a saying during Covid: Gas the unvaxxed. Germany sadly does have things to answer for historically, and that'll be weaponized against it's citizens for many generations to come I'm afraid.
It was indeed a small minority. At least in the West. But not in the East. I was somewhat involved in this fight and outspoken as I am I get a sense of the mood of the population. This is much, much bigger. I am really astonished at the breath of popular opposition. There are people of whom I had never expected that who are now getting seriously riled up. Everything merges together: Covid, green energy, the war and the official narrative rapidly loses ground. We might be heading for a new 1989.
We can hope, but the extent of the clean out is stupefying; the media, politics, every state institution, business, education. There's a long list of broken/rigged institutions. As the energy and resource crises rip up the financial band aids collapse becomes a real possibility. At that point all these people who organise color revolutions could end up in one.
If you think that "across the ocean" somebody asks us, "the people," or that democracy counts for something here vs. wherever you are - think again.
All mainstream German political parties are in agreement that the AfD or any party that challenges American hegemony in general or the war in Ukraine in particular can never reach power.
Even if the AfD were to sweep into office with an absolute majority today, the German bureaucracy would fight them tooth and nail, every step of the way.
Man the DPRK can put an a parade like no one else.
Throwing around those rifles with bayonets looks dangerous, but dropping them during the show would be even more dangerous, I expect.
Yes superb. I particularly loved all the smiling faces. Those lady soldiers looked so friendly...... and yet I know they would happily cut your throat on a battlefield to save ammunition.
They all looked malnourished. Be real, only the pilots looked close to being properly fed. Yes, I'm jealous of their BMI, and would pick their bodies over mine any day, but don't be blind to the obvious.
Sorry Rudy, I was being "tongue in cheek" with my comment. but the bit about them cutting your throat was very truthful. Take care!
Re: “Let’s also state the reminder that the current conflict represents the largest mobilization of manpower Russia has ever experienced since WW2. In every previous conflict going back to Afghanistan, Russia has utilized at most around 110k simultaneous troops at any given time…”
Perhaps in 1968 it wasn’t a case of mobilization but merely deployment of standing force. Even so, the number was staggering:
“Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
Peak strength:[9]
350,000–400,000 Soviet troops, 70,000–80,000 from Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary[10]
6,300 tanks[11] - Wikipedia”
And that was to suppress mere 15 million population.
And to forestall any immediate NATO attempt to make use of this situation.
The "Draft" is prudent preparation--Be Prepared. I fail to see how any troop additions made by Putin/Russia that it will be an election issue. How could a challenger argue they aren't needed?!
Gosh that polling was tiresome! Fortunately, very little about Ukraine was discussed at the Russia-Africa Summit over the past two days as you can see from these two articles, https://karlof1.substack.com/p/russia-africa-summit-or-biden-corruption and https://karlof1.substack.com/p/russia-africa-summit-day-2-leaders
Lots of motivated talk and sense of purpose very much on display.
Thanks for the links
Are you Bazza McKenzie of Bruce the Wombat fame?
Not sure about Bruce the Wombat but I've got plenty of wombats on my property. One of them might be called Bruce.
I agree about the polling; the sample size for a country as large as the Russian Federation seems dubious. After all the talk about the existential threat to the RF; the population understands the threat and this poll would dispel that, c'mon there aren't that many liberals in RF? And with Putin's approval rating going from 80 to 90 percent.
I don't think the election will have any bearing on Putin's thinking about the timing of a mobilization. He has made potentially unpopular decisions in the past and carried through on them, regardless of public opinion, when he though they were right. Russian people are not going to change leadership for almost any reason in the middle of a war, and the political structures prevent it from mattering on local or regional levels.
The criticism of people expounding worst-case scenarios hits home for me. I do not believe the current U.S. financial system is sustainable, and believe it will end up in economic collapse. I see all kinds of systemic faults in the American system that I don't think can be fixed. Maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees.
I agree to the extent that I don't think any opponent would actually stand a chance anyway against Putin even if using the mobilization as a bayonet. If it was absolutely necessary Putin would do it no matter what. I just think that all things being equal, if the mobilization is not really a necessity or an urgency, they'd prefer to do it after since it's simply less messy that way. But if there's a need for it then you're right I don't think elections would matter.
Has NATO implicitly foregone ‘conventional warfare’ which is grossly more manpower, resource and capital intensive? Meager signs of mobilization or increased industrial capacity. Has it gambled totally on nuclear deterrence and schizoid guerilla tactics etc.?
Is Russian playing into the hands of NATO with these costly mobilizations?
Good point, but what are the options right now?
No because Ukraine itself is playing with the rules of conventional warfare, as long as that's true Russia has no choice but to meet them and beat them in that regard. I would hardly put much stock in the idea of any of these mobilizations seriously factoring in a greater war with NATO, the focus is Ukraine while having enough to send in an emergency to other possible "future Ukraines" like Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.
America may have millions of little Ukrainian flag icons on every respectable member of society’s twitter account 🇺🇦 but all of them put together won’t translate to willingness to actually make sacrifices to support the war. Empty the stockpiles, fine, but mobilization? Impossible. America’s armed forces are far too busy integrating transgender officers into the front line. God save us, because nobody else will.
This is probably too conspiratorial even for these times, but maybe one of Putin's aims with this possible mobilisation IS to get Biden to try and bring back the draft. Russians have a sense of humour too!
US/NATO biggest strength is Soft Power, almost to the exclusion of other powers it seems.
Soft power is based on diplomacy, tact, sensitivity and fine judgement. The US and NATO possess none of these skills.
Good point I'll give you ALL of that. And yet, media manipulation, censorship, propaganda, education, cultural control, Endowments for Democracy. Oh yes, US/EU certainly have all of THOSE soft-power bases covered. Now if only we actually MADE a damn thing, we might actually have something here!
NATO = USA. USA has most certainly not foregone conventional warfare but it never intended to win in Ukraine. The war was designed to bleed Russia enough to cause public discontent and eventual regime change, but the plan went awry when the Ukrainians decided to fight a real war instead of the endless guerilla war USA wanted. Russia would be playing into USA's hands if it escalated too much. Best approach is probably wait until EU loses interest, which creates risk of NATO breakup. USA will drop Ukraine like a hot potato rather than risk losing NATO. At that point, Ukraine situation will be hopeless and someone in the civilian or military government will grab control and negotiate with Russia. Who knows what the final result will be. But Russia is definitely best off taking as little Ukrainian territory as possible and focus on ensuring Ukraine is a powerless vassal. Ordinary Ukrainian people think in terms of territory (peasant mentality). Smart geopolitical strategists think in terms of nailing down permanent vassals.
I think the only people in the West who would seriously contemplate a nuclear response to Russian mobilisation and impending total defeat in Ukraine are Nuland and Co. They are the REAL mentalists here and need to be neutralised for the sake of the world.
Simplicius,
There is conversation about Boris Kagarlitsky over at Moon of Alabama. Do you have any thoughts on that? Personally I think he was being a little insensitive to the present dilemma, but also that given how much sudden support he's received in the west by likely captured Left outlets like Jacobin and New Republic, that there must be a US or UK intelligence connection that the Russians caught onto. I don't think that his statements on the Kerch Bridge rose to the level of inciting or approving of terror without further incriminating evidence that isn't public (yet).
Krargilitsky is 5th column, a self-described Marxist who once sat on the board of Verso Press, a left wing publishing outlet in Britain, & got kicked off, I believe by Tariq Ali. He does what all leftist haters of Russia do, he makes a false equivalence between Russia & the US led west. So when Russia intervenes militarily in Syria to save the country, for Kargilitsky this is "imperialism" equivalent to the US invasions of Iraq, 1990/2003. He's not worth talking about, other than Russia should arrest him & imprison him for life in my opinion, & strip him of any assets he may own.
I have no problem with him on the basis of his leftist/Marxist views if they are genuine and in most cases if someone has an opinion let them have it, but is it the case that this guy has such a large following that he's a threat on the basis of only his beliefs and statements? Imprisoning him for life sounds a little harsh. Seems like another Navalny to me, perhaps a mosquito to be swatted and shipped outside of the country where he can spout his opinions in obscurity.
P.S. I agree with you on most of your comment - other than imprisonment for life. The way that Russia was invited to help in Syria is nothing like how the USA goes all over the world destroying countries.
That's precisely the point, he claims to be left/Marxist, which means he ought to assume an anti-imperialist, as well as an anti-capitalist/pro-socialist position as a matter of principle. So how does he qualify Russia's intervention in Syria, which was support for a country that was a victim of imperialism? It is pure hypocrisy. Or, take another example, how would Kargilitsky qualify Cuba's involvement in Angola back in the day? He wouldn't qualify it as "Cuban imperialism" because he approved of the government there - so he's taking a position based on personal bias, not principle. I don't care for left/Marxist ideology myself, I believe it to have been quite an evil, but that is an entirely separate matter, if he is a Marcxist, then why does he not uphold those principles? And I would say it is because he has no principles at all, he is a fraud.
I don't disagree with your *logic* at all. 100% in agreement. I just don't think someone should be sent to prison for life because they're a hypocrite and a nuisance. I guess buried in my first reply was an implied question: How much influence does this guy even have in Russia? It's my understanding that the Russian Communist Party is actually pretty well represented. Do they act on what this guy says? I genuinely don't know. Kind of like how Navalny is portrayed here in the West as some hugely popular and influential political actor when in reality he's got almost zero support from the Russian people.
Kargilitsky has no influence in Russia at all, none. He's known amongst leftists in the west, Draitser & people like him, who also are frauds. Kargilitsky has no connection with Russia's communist party, none, & he would not condone them or them him - if that makes sense. For Kargilitsky, the communist party in Russia would be "Putin stooges", that is how he would characterize them. The prison thing is hyperbole, I just think Russia should deal with traitors harshly, but it is not really for me to say. You can relax, people like me who have worked professionally in the criminal justice system tend to take hard line views of such things, but I have no influence over any government. More's the pity.
If he's anything like Draitser, he's a rat. I hate that guy. Really have no idea how he makes a living; I can't imagine anyone actually tunes into his videos and there's no way Counterpunch pays him more than a few hundred dollars per article.
When you're kicked out by Tariq Ali for being too much of a crazy left, then you know you're in trouble.
I'm only passingly familiar with him and his case, having mostly dismissed him (justifiably or not) as a standard run-of-the-mill 5th columnist.
I'm more informed on the wider 'theories' regarding the recent string of arrests, which stem from another 5th columnist in Russia named Alexander Gusov who runs the propaganda outlet known as Cheka-OGPU. He himself has been arrested before, and his latest narrative which has made the rounds in all the Russian 5th column underground networks revolves around another popular Russian figure named Oleg Matveychev who allegedly sent some type of note to the Kremlin in the wake of the Wagner rebellion, warning them to begin jailing all dissidents like Strelkov. It's claimed that after this urgent appeal, the Kremlin took heed and began a new initiative of 'tightening the ship' and a new low tolerance for dissidents like Kargalitsky, etc., etc.
This Gusov character was previously linked to the infamous 'Cello Case' TG channel controversy. You can do a deep dive on that stuff if you're interested.
Allegedly Kargalitsky was jailed for a video about the bridge attack but I haven't seen the video yet, do you have a link to it?
But you're right that they wouldn't just do that to anyone for a small thing like that unless there was something deeper. Most public intellectuals of that sort, particularly academics with large internationally institutional accreditations/connections are all compromised by Western intel, which particularly runs high in academia. So I'm sure he's on the fringe of being a 'foreign agent' in that regard. I'd like to know more info on it though, if there's actual details to alleged past indiscretions.
Thanks for providing some feedback. I'll definitely check out the Cello Case thing.
And yes, given how the Western "leftist" punditry like Draitser and Jacobin have all seemed to circulate the same exact (as in worded exactly the same) statement on his arrest, I have to assume he has Western intel connections. The left in the US has been infiltrated, captured, and rendered meaningless for a number of years now - primarily by the USG.
No I hadn't even heard of this video. That would be interesting though. I'll look around. This is the Telegram posts that the Western sources are citing. No video. https://t.me/kagarlitsky/1010
If the machine translation is accurate, the last two paragraphs seem to imply that perhaps the bridge was *intentionally* damaged so that corrupt contractors can continue making money from the repairs. At least that's one way to read it. Or that the bridge is just an ego project for Putin and that it was irresponsible to build it in the first place since it will be a continued target for sabotage (which also would be a continued source of money for corrupt contractors, I guess with ties to Putin). Then at the end he hints that certain government positions will be changing shortly. Reference to Putin and his inner circle being ousted? Putin's supporters in the Duma? I have no clue. But the message is definitely subversive and/or telling of a grander conspiracy in the works.