Most of the financial losses in top markets come from speculation, making decisions based on trends, margins, differentials. A category of people that is extremely well paid is/are mathematicians calculating chances of future events. This way of thinking is influential and seems to prevail in the west, and it is this type of reasoning that immediately transforms small differences you correctly observe into hypothetical victories or defeats.
This is the financial mind as presented in main stream media, and brilliantly referenced by Simplicius.
On the other hand market knows no principle, and no strategy based on principles can be used on market, market economy, market based society,
Long term strategy is being enforced through sanctions in market economies. And through psychological warfare in media.
Simplicius is doing wonders revealing solid, truthful information on number of soldiers, casualties on both sides. Western media are in full Goebels mode, not in the sense they are Nazi but that mode of manipulation is exactly the same.
A lie repeated thousand times begins to echo in public consciousness as truth. If Ukrainian or US public was aware of the real numbers of fallen on Ukrainian as opposed to Russian side, if they knew the truth, they would know who won the war. It is very revealing truth, uncovering a depressing reality of defeat, and in the moment when it is understood demands the change of strategy, ceasefire, negotiations....
One can only go forward as a society if one has hope. Determined individuals can refuse to give up, but Ukrainian society is being manipulated with imaginary carrots of EU accession. The attempts to hide the truth will continue.
That is why I sincerely appreciate Simplicius‘ efforts to bring us the truth.
I think Simplicus focuses too much on objective measures to the exclusion of the morale factor that will ultimately be decisive here. Even the Japanese in WWII had to surrender eventually. The Ukrainians are not Japanese. At some point propaganda and threat will not keep people fighting for a losing cause. Pinpointing the moment of collapse is hard from here, and doing an AAR on the objective measures Simplicus follows after the collapse is going to show us that it would have been hard to tell exactly when it was going to happen.
Yes, numbers on 2000 miles contact line are similar, big changes are not likely. But whole psychological approach to war was based on certain Ukrainian victory, both in mobilizing Ukrainian society to support vocal aggressive nationalist minority in choosing and following strategy of provoking Russia into aggression and in mobilizing support for victim of unprovoked aggression who is however an underdog going to crush the mightier opponent.
If reality of Ukraine not winning, not going to win in the immediate future, not going to win in foreseeable future, not going to win ever, and losing an enormous number of men, endangering future of the nation in the war becomes clearly visible, situation in the battlefield will not immediately change, but psychological house of cards supporting the war will begin to crumble.
As I understand Simplicius supports his vision of current situation and implications for Future, i.e. how the war will unfold by extensive citations from available sources, primary; Telegram Tik tok as well as secondary main stream media, especially quotes from interesting/important individuals, political, military etc. He is the opposite of ISW.
ISW is Institute for the study of War, a CIA or deep state run website that is commenting on war in a way that is always positive for US and allies. Like BBC on steroids.
My understanding is that Ukraine has 'enough' soldiers to man their defensive lines at the moment and in the foreseeable future. This means that there are enough troops to make the Russians 'go slowly' (since they are risk and casualty adverse), in order to minimize losses.
Most of Ukrainian troops at this point are not fit, well-trained, or well-armed (although some in the more elite, ideological, and mercenary units are). This kind of military force really limits the Ukrainian ability to 'attack' (or perhaps I should say 'attack successfully', because for whatever reason Ukraine keeps attacking (e.g. Krinky)).
The collapse of military recruiting and the draft in Ukraine is choking off military replacement significantly, but there are still enough resources to keep the trenches filled with 'meat' if the military hierarchy prioritizes that activity. A rule of thumb might be that 1/3 of Ukraine's mobilized force is in the trenches at any one time, 1/3 is in some form of 'recovery' (new recruits in training, wound recovery, experienced troops in specialized training, post-combat reorganization of shattered troops just coming off the line, soldiers on leave), and at least 1/3 is in 'service support' to repair equipment, deliver supplies, etc. If you want to keep the trenches filled (and recruitment has collapsed), you can start to denude those last two categories -- that action of course just degrades your military's performance even further but you can keep 'just enough' rifles in the static defenses to hold the line and make limited attacks. Ukraine can also tap its 18-28 year old population more heavily than they have (there are a lot of exceptions given to the draft for schooling and war-critical industries and to certain politically important metro areas). Tapping these resources has been a political 'dynamite' but it could be done which would give the Ukrainian army more resources it it is pursued.
Therefore, this war can go on for a long time ('to the last Ukranian') -- IF Ukrainian morale stays together. But as HBI noted somewhere here, war's usually don't end that way ('to the last man') -- especially if the troops believe that they are being 'thrown away recklessly', or if they feel like 'some are serving while others party at home', or if they feel like their friends and families are at greater risk from predators at home (than the enemy to their front), or if they feel like surrender and eventual repatriation is a good option, or if they are short on foot, fuel, and ammunition, etc etc. It just takes time for the losses, the cold, the disillusionment, etc to take hold.
You get the picture. At this point it all depends on morale, and the odds of 'something breaking' either on the home front or battle line are high. We commentators are just morbidly speculating on 'when and what' will trigger this catastrophic collapse in morale. The war is materially and strategically and economically lost for Ukraine -- we are just waiting to see how the 'end game' all plays out.
Marcif -- I saw your detailed response later on another thread and liked it as well. Your assessment of 'how many are actually in the trenches' and my comment on fit hand and glove.
There is reality beneath the media presented surface. It can be reached from the keyboard of your device. A combination of facts that cannot be hidden and logic that reflects the laws governing universe, specially behaviour of humans, armies and states. It is easier to guided by someone you trust, like Simplicius or MacGregor or BigSerge or Mearsheimer but in the end one has to be able to orient himself by himself, using facts and logic.
Ukraine seems far from finished, seems to have enough reserves to can keep going for quite a while that is true.
But this is also true:
the only possible pathway leading to victory of Ukraine has closed,
there is little evidence that Enormous amount of money, weapons that would be necessary for Ukraine to have another chance to win at battlefield is coming again, or will ever come again
Ukraine survives only because of western help
Ukraine needs still significant amount of help just to keep stalemate
Ukraine with all the help keeps losing men, and even if money, weapons come from the west, men will not come.
A very difficult position. Will it get better in 2024?
That is exactly what is or what should be on Ukrainian leaders mind: 250 000 soldiers, 250 000 reserves is quite a lot
But not enough
A long retreat. And final defeat. If now there are over 300 000 deaths, how many more will fall? And for what?
Time has come when Ukraine as a nation has different strategic goal from US/Nato. But there is no one to say it aloud. US diplomats, politicians, pundits never thought about this war through the lens of Ukrainian national interest. Ukrainians have been subjected to oppression by extreme nationalists installed by US/CIA after 2014, that only grew worse with the unresolved conflict in the East, and was so strong that Zelensky who won elections running on a peace platform against nationslist Poroshenko was forced to change course. Russia has started SMO and did quite an impressive offer in Spring 2022 peacetalks in Istambul, but US blocked potential ceasefire.
No one in US no one in Ukraine leadership, no one in EU has Ukrainian national interest as a primary objective.
Ukraine will have to follow US instructions, and keep defending, at least until the US elections. EU/Germany will have to cover expenses. War will drag on until the will or number of soldiers is depleted. Tragic
Ukrainian resistance still seems formidable, but rational leader if he were independent, that is if he had Ukrainian interest as the most important, would now decide to try and end the war.
Unfortunately Ukrainian current leadership is not following primarily Ukrsinisn interest. It is confusing.
The only reasonable explanation is Ukrainian leadership gambles on including NATO directly in the war.
I see a distinct picture coming from the current events on the battlefiled. Ukraine cannot advance. They have reserves, but they're poorl;y trained. They can fight, but they've lost their officer corp and lack leadership and strategic directio on the front. Their weapons are failing, their ammo resources are depleted and getting worse. Russia, on the other hand, has none of these issues. Instead of flinging themselves at the Ukraininas in a big arrow move, they hang back, strike where they see wekness, and attrit the Ukrainians day-in and day-out. This has been their strattegy since the Kharkov/Kherson events. The Russians have never been stronger and they have more to bring to the fight when they're ready. It might take longer, but victory is victory.
I suspect a primary reason the west might choose to keep the conflict "active" is to mask the possibility President Putin/Russia have no desire to take on the burden of trying to control Europe. As long as the conflict is in play, the narrative of Putin wants to rule the world still sells; at least to the fools among us.
You are right - they'll leave this to the EU and to NATO - who could do a better job - and they'll happily leave rump Ukraine as well - this will further drain EU NATO, who will import the Nazi elements
Hollywood, the U.S. Media (same thing) will be cobbling together a "Great Victory" on how fighting Russia in the Ukraine saved the "Spirit of the Ukrainian People from the Hordes of illiterate Russians/Mongols, despite having lost the entire country of Ukraine." This will come with newly recarved-face Madonna dancing like a teenage virgin, Old Joe sniffing many young heads, Hunter doing his best lines, and AG Garland doing a post script choking Lady Justice "the bitch deserved it."
‘Look closer at Mr Putin’s wartime economy, however, and it becomes clear that it is dangerously overheating. Inflation in the services sector, which includes everything from legal advice to restaurant meals, is exceptionally high. The cost of a night’s stay at Moscow’s Ritz-Carlton, now called the Carlton after its Western backers pulled out, has risen from around $225 before the invasion to $500. This suggests that the cause of inflation is home-grown.’
‘Look closer’! The one fact is fact free – impacts westie journalists using dollars but no one else, no wonder the Economist journo is complaining
‘The problem is that the Russian economy cannot take such rapid growth.’ The growth referred to is 3%
“Unemployment, at less than 3%, is at its lowest on record, which is emboldening workers to ask for much higher wages. Nominal pay is growing by about 15% year on year. Companies are then passing on these higher costs to customers.”
Low unemployment and higher wages for workers are bad
Next up - Western economies are so strong they benefit from recession
Oh my, “Unemployment, at less than 3%, is at its lowest on record, which is emboldening workers to ask for much higher wages. Nominal pay is growing by about 15% year on year. Companies are then passing on these higher costs to customers.”
How terrible! Workers ask for much higher wages! The audacity! Much better when everybody has low wages and the inflation melts away the income gradually! War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
The West has become the USSR 4.0, maybe even worse, I don't think the Soviet Polit Kommissars were that stupid and corrupt. But maybe some former Soviet citizens can enlighten us. This is just embarrassingly stupid. The Economist was a good newspaper, well maybe 20 years ago it was.
I agree – any Russian 12 year old could write a more intelligent and more adult objective analysis
As per screening the FT, it is apparent that this section of the western press is contracted to make very simple statements summing up or outlining the orthodoxy, the Party Line
The relationship of these statements to reality is irrelevant
Hence all the propaganda about what ‘facts’ are, ‘really in fact’ are; instruments of oppression of something minorities or marginalized
So that very crudely worded idealisations of intent substitute for preparation for action, or are believed to be sufficient for, or …whatever…it hardly matters
‘UK defence minister Grant Shapps has made a thinly veiled criticism of western nations whose support for Ukraine in its war against Russia appears to be faltering.
“We simply can’t have an outcome where a dictator, an autocratic dictator, walks into a neighbouring democratic country and the west gets bored of it,” he told the BBC, without specifying any nation.
“That is an unacceptable outcome to this. That’s why it’s so important to get on with the job now.”’
'Get on with the job'! This is schoolboy larking
When it is widely published that the U.K. army could put together perhaps 40 tanks that function, maybe an equipped division
‘Britain announced its biggest increase in defense spending since the Cold War in 2020. But the overall army size is still expected to shrink to 72,500 full-time troops from a previous target of 82,000. It is replacing its 227 tanks with 148 more-modern versions, but those won’t be deployed until 2027. Of its existing 227 tanks, only 157 can be deployed within 30 days and perhaps only 40 are fully functioning and ready to move, military analysts said, as many are in storage or being upgraded.
The Economist was not good 20 years ago, when it did a full-magazine special on the insurance industry, with a focus on America's industry. I thought, "Wow!" and sent it to a friend who had been in the business for 20 years. His response was scathing. All the information was either stale or flat wrong. Note, this was on an anodyne topic. Nothing was at stake, and certainly not the Empire. In the late 1980's, The Economist did a hit piece on Vietnam, saying their economy was not developing very well. What this bastion of British arrogance and stupidity refused to mention, was that Vietnam suffered the loss of 3 million men and had more bombs dropped on it than Germany in WW2. So of course they had trouble.
There is not one British journal or newspaper that is worth reading to obtain truth. Rarely, it's worth reading between the lines for a perspective on what the elites are saying or thinking at the moment. Damn them all.
It is certainly true that reading S and others who report accurately on the war and it's context is much more useful and stimulating than reading the Economist the FT and so on
But- on the grounds of the old principle - know your enemy- it is useful to learn what the dominant class are thinking preparing and planning - because they are quite open about it
Also- it is instructive to learn quite how ignorant and in efficient this their chosen press and journalists are - the articles are as badly conceived and put together as those statements and actions of the other segments of the governing class, notably the politicians – their analysis of the situation infantile and their actions ineffective
It is of direct and practical use to know the limits of the dominant class and the limitations of their servants, the businessclass, administrativeclass etc
These inefficiencies can be compared/contrasted to the otherwise actions and statements of the RF, and others
These west dominant/governing classes are allowed to be so stupid because there is no opposition- it is time that this changed
Hard to back it with numbers. But the sentiment in Russia is that West currently is so far up its own ass, that it is worse than USSR was. USA seems to make many mistakes that destroyed us, however with even less thinking.
Actually the "success is failure" phrase is incomplete. It should be "success is failure and failure is success" and probably should not be assigned to Russia but to WEF controlled governments. I coined this phrase a year ago when discussing the decline of the US and the EU - the Western puppets, really and the cross purpose stupidities of destructive government policies. These policies from the attacks on health, open border policies, degrading education, attacks on main street economies and degrading the military, agricultural sectors, and population numbers in general are all outlined in the WEF wish list as stated in its initial web site (and infamous video) Agenda 21. These policies are nihilistic for globalist captured governments and are supported by autocratic attacks on the MSM and our basic rights for most Western countries. Russia is not a globalist captured state,. nor is it reflected in the growing strength of BRICS - which are generated by nationalism and growing disdain for Western hegemony.
I realize that this is not a comprehensive essay about this trend but it does suggest the reality that this is a political movement which targets the control of elitist interests over whole hemispheres. The movie, as shown, is part of the plan where the chaos shown is yet another self destructive element of the plan for rapid change. We are on a road of massive disruption, part of it planned by those in control, and part of a "reset" that is "founded" in the basics of a failing fundamental and inevitable GLOBAL monetary system and failing financial system. The BRICS will eventually seek the stability of a gold standard (the most stable backing of a sound money policy) and the West will founder down this road into a form of oligarchy type of slavocracy. At present it seems to most like a developing "idiocracy". This is a statement that is all to brief an explanation for the changes coming; it only covers the wider details of this process. If we are lucky these transitions will not precipitate wider wars and more chaos that will put all sides in tragedy.
If Putin were to discover a miracle cure for cancer using this one weird old trick, the MSM would bewail all the doctors and nurses he put out of work.
You've generally had a pretty good handle on the force numbers so you're probably right, but Putin did mention in the 44k sent home some were "health related" which could be a nuanced way of saying casualties and the remainder not mentioned could be dead. Either way, nothing makes me believe they've lost the 350k mentioned by the media earlier this week.
Hot off the Press - FT - EU fails to agree E50B funding package for Ukraine
This means they'll have to work to find the money, because Ukraine will not be let go of, even if they have to send some active ingredients to persuade EU politicians and their families
Accession process to begin : Failure to vote money
This is a perfect score – the EU will have to pick up the pieces in Ukraine, take care of the Nazis, pay the rent, clean the dirty dishes
While not having the money to do so
The perfect end to a perfect war – years of bureaucratic infighting, and a lot of votes which any EU country, as yesterday, can veto – a bureaucrat’s paradise
As previously hinted – it may also suit RF to have a feeble EU obliged to take responsibility for the UKr rump
For what it's worth, I've always assumed that the war is planned to move into the 1984 scenario, of perpetual war, happening far away, where no-one really knows how real the war is; just there to provide the sense of emergency for justifying hardship and dictatorship.
Indeed. It's difficult to evaluate how much of this war is real and how much is political theatre designed to to obscure the 'great reset' as both sides push ahead with CBDCs etc.
I don't think CBDCs will happen at retail level here in the US. Powell & the Banksters are dead set against it. Plus we don't have even close to the infrastructure needed to support it. Since going to 4G, I have fairly reliable internet connectivity in a single 3'sq space in my house. Per my homeowner's insurance co. & a rep from tracfone, this is the case all over the country. I drive 5 miles to the library to do important online stuff without interruption & losing everything.
And I don't live in the middle of nowhere. Midcoast Maine within 5 miles of at least 1 retired bankster, 20 miles of Rockefeller mountain, some Eisenhowers, Valerie Jarret summer home, etc.
Pretty sure its Rockefellers private jet over my house during odd hours since the Ukr went south, summer of 22. Flights increase with every major turning point & start of Israeli attack on Gaza.
I think you're probably right about retail CBDCs. Fiat money has made the bigwigs what they are. Why change a winning formula? However I do think retail CBDCs combined with a social credit system remain in the toolbox as an option if the current financial system collapses. Especially if depopulation efforts result in a much smaller number of people who can be controlled in 'smart cities'. Having said that I don't think that the degenerate psychopaths who rule us are all powerful. Here in the UK the establishment backed down pretty quickly on COVID medical fascism as by my estimates c. 30% of us said no thanks to the jibbyjab. Likewise the recent anti genocide protests in London really freaked out the powers that be.
I agree. The WEF component/faction in Western governments are "pushing" with the decline and the chaos, especially the financial instabilities, may disrupt the WEF plans somewhat. If the damage "overtakes" the process the currency system will fail even without the "pause" that "they" see that a CBDC might achieve. And yes,. the CBDC is not a solution, but a stopgap solution. The BRICS will have to return to gold (is this a race?) but will not solve the problem for the East (non globalists) about trade settlement based on shunning US currencies as policy under BRICS.
Re: BRICS I think CBDCs are more likely to work for a commodities based economy like Russia and possibly China. The ruling class in both these countries would find the CBDC/social credit combination appealing to secure their power. And Russia in particular has little to lose in such an experiment. It's not as if the ruble is king of the fiat currencies.
Well, ok. But Putin (Xi too) know the stability of a gold standard. China has bought some 20,000 tonnes of the stuff and has a CBDC to boot. So the question becomes: can a government bring the discipline of a gold standard to the availability of a digital currency?
Agreed. We are often too negative. 30% of us fought back and won against the jab mandates. People are already fighting back against any CBDC malarkey they try to introduce. 5 US states have local "goldback" currencies for barter, trade and discounts. Lots of other freedom-loving places will tell the globalists where to shove their CBDCs and credit score.
Yup, it only needs enough people. If only the majority of people would get rid of their TV's and learn about current affairs from people who were there.
(TVs short for mainstream media, including Facebook, Google and YouTube).
Putin is orchestrating this conflict for maximum pain on the West, and it's working, while minimizing casualties on the regular Russian army and marines, as opposed to the convicts and territorials...Well played!
Agreed. It's a team effort, and their team is strong. Putin is a canny leader, and Lavrov and Medvedev are no slouches either. Meanwhile, we have Joe, Kamala, Olaf, Ursula...
It's not just any "team." It's many highly qualified people who are all on the same page, all seeking the same goals, all working hard and conscientiously. Obviously, their inspiration is not Putin, but big issues of civilization and God. Putin is merely an enabler, but this man is of a quality which might show up every several hundred years - if we are fortunate.
absolutely, Jess. Russians still seem to have a common culture. Sure, the big cities have their simpering liberals like any Western city, but unlike here, their views aren't allowed to corrupt society as a whole.
The reason the ukrop now declares andivka to be so important is that they are all out of excuses for not winning the war...when they lost the town formerly called bakmuht they and the western handlers still convinced themselves they would win. it was a temporary set back and soon the hohols would be retaking mauriupol..now the americans are looking for plausible excuses for the failure of their great gambit and its obvious to everyone ukraine will NEVER regain its territories...in fact it will lose more before the americans allow them to quit. by then there will be a stockpile of rehearsed excuses the yankees can use and all of them will be defamatory of the ukrainians.
I noticed the NAFO hordes screeching that the entire world will be crushed if Ukraine does not win. It’s a pretty lame ploy but they are giving it the community college try!
I certainly agree with your comments about not retaking territory.
As for Andrivka, militarily, unlike Bahkmuht, it is actually important (the following is not necessarily against what you were trying to say, but to give some military context: you can't tell on the maps you see of the frontline but Andrivka sits on a set of foothills of relatively high ground that is militarily significant for defense. If the Ukrainians lose those positions (and the hills just to the immediate West of Andrivka), then the next 'defensible' terrain is 30-50km further west. Pulling to the West would expose and undermine the defenses that the Ukrainians have built since 2014 in Nieu York and other places up and down the whole Donbas line. Of course, the Ukrainians may chose to stay in the low lands (after being evicted from Andrivka) and just suffer. In Bahkmuht, the Ukrainians defended a relatively hard to defend city in a valley long after the surrounding hills to the east were captured by the Russians -- costing the Ukrainians excessive amounts of casualties. So I suppose that they could 'repeat the disaster and defend the indefensible' some more after Andrivka but you get the picture.
As to why Ukraine held Bakhmuht, I don't think it was because of the West -- from what I heard it was despite what the the West asked them to do -- but ultimately it doesn't really matter. Just more tragedy.
I think these 'meat-grinder' positions were held onto because those were the positions used to punish civilians for rejecting Ukro plans. They wanted to be able to continue with this core aspect of their war.
as for the "civil war"..maybe...americans are schizoid and anti social and obsessed with the great american homicide-hero fantasy..it might be the only way they can find an opponent they can beat
I think texas is having that question put on a vote next year. Succession. But between California and the talk. Usa seems to be breaking up faster than the subject of any RAND think tank fantasy
The movie is an unknown, can’t say until the full story. Could be a warning, fear mongering against Trump, or predictive programming to condition the populace to what’s to come. I’ll say this though, Texas and California being on the same side is ridiculous.
The American Empire won't give up that easily. "Putin plans to invade Europe!" will be given wings by the Baltics and Moldova attacking their respective Russian enclaves - but under the western media radar, so the inevitable response will be screamed as "unprovoked", much like the Hamas assault.
More expendable European bodies will be blown apart "To weaken Russia".
While America runs on "narrative", when the chips are down they don't care - naked power will do as well.
And who can stop them? Certainly not Western "voters" in our sham, State/CIA controlled elections.
As someone said recently, the USA need a "non-Zionist party" to vote for, which sounds impossible. How much more impossible is a party that stands against the Empire itself?
Who can stop them?- well the EU politicos/bureaucrats can stop them by not being able to do anything, one example- latest FT article on EU's failure to pass their E50B plan for Ukraine, and the US is not going to be able (or want) to run the EU and NATO without (some) positive help from the Europeans
The Baltic states may wish to sacrifice themselves, but they would not know how to do it
Never underestimate the stupidity/herlplessness of a colonialised class
Yes, perhaps, but the US destroying the EU when it took down the Russian pipelines also will take down NATO. We won't know the details until the dust settles.
IT would appear that the USA is sacrificing the EU to milk a few more years of “primacy”....or you could sprinkle in something more sinister like a Kalergi plan.
This is more like shooting oneself in the foot, to earn some pennies. The pennies being a dribble to the US of European, mostly German industry, as the EU fails in earnest. Now Biden is talking of putting troops on the ground with his degraded and inept military and a NATO that is also failing due to these same policies. I am referring yet again to the US destruction of Russia's pipelines. It seems to me very inept as a means to continue the war - all the current US policies that seem to only support failure. For me this is aggressive WEF/globalist deindustrialising policies, not positive strategies that support hegemonic goals. Does the WEF want WW3? No, but it does kill two birds with a stone - it manages and degrades the possibility of war with Russia AND degrades all of Europe both economically and militarily.
It’s likely that both NATO and the EU stumble from incompetence to insignificance, through their own determination to do nothing but pose for the camera, and follow their bureautrash instincts into crossing t’s and regulating nouns
Not to forget the role played by the RF
You aver that ‘countries can do anything they like…’ – this is un proven in this war the EUUS picked with the RF – the EU especially but the US also have shown themselves to actually do nothing much at all of any real significance, although they have released millions of lines of what we will do etc, and claim to have spent some money
Or – one might say these impotents do not wish to ‘do’ anything but copy speeches and plagiarise clichés
All the above refers more particularly to the colonialised governing classes in the EU outer provinces or borderlands, not to oppressed workers everywhere
Shouldn't Russia be disrupting the construction of defense lines and bunkers already?
As for the expected American civil war, it's probably already planned by the real rulers of the world. While we thought Hollywood was used for prep-programming by CIA, perhaps it was more the "chosen ones", many of whom are among the invisible rulers dreaming of global domination.
With reference to your previous post, how come Ukrainians are sitting quietly allowing their country's assets to be sold off to big corporations, not to "save" the country but for few elites to stuff their pockets more and further depopulate the country?
If anyone thinks you can dig trenches with hand tools in frozen ground they are deluded. Russia built theirs when roads weren't muddy , and the front was far enough away it wasnt bothered much. I do recall a video of a drone hitting an excavator that was working once. Big yellow machinery would be a tasty target for a geran .who is even pouring the concrete teeth in a heated building in winter?
RF needs to shoot every nato drone down no more Intel for sneak attacks. There's no politeness left for that. But who am I.
I did note putin referenced the graveyard of children called Gaza and compared Russia's action to what Israel is doing. Everyone can see that , even through the bs western propaganda, no one is as evil as zionazi , even the Azov tornado battalion nazis are somewhat kindergarten to them.
Why does nobody in western press point out the obvious contradiction in "putin has taken 87% casualties, his army is in ruins" and " if we don't stop the Russians they will conquer all of europe"
I mean Russia has 140mn people or so, they are much bigger than Ukraine, but if they've taken 300k casualties the evidence would be impossible to hide, right?
Most of the financial losses in top markets come from speculation, making decisions based on trends, margins, differentials. A category of people that is extremely well paid is/are mathematicians calculating chances of future events. This way of thinking is influential and seems to prevail in the west, and it is this type of reasoning that immediately transforms small differences you correctly observe into hypothetical victories or defeats.
This is the financial mind as presented in main stream media, and brilliantly referenced by Simplicius.
On the other hand market knows no principle, and no strategy based on principles can be used on market, market economy, market based society,
Long term strategy is being enforced through sanctions in market economies. And through psychological warfare in media.
Simplicius is doing wonders revealing solid, truthful information on number of soldiers, casualties on both sides. Western media are in full Goebels mode, not in the sense they are Nazi but that mode of manipulation is exactly the same.
A lie repeated thousand times begins to echo in public consciousness as truth. If Ukrainian or US public was aware of the real numbers of fallen on Ukrainian as opposed to Russian side, if they knew the truth, they would know who won the war. It is very revealing truth, uncovering a depressing reality of defeat, and in the moment when it is understood demands the change of strategy, ceasefire, negotiations....
One can only go forward as a society if one has hope. Determined individuals can refuse to give up, but Ukrainian society is being manipulated with imaginary carrots of EU accession. The attempts to hide the truth will continue.
That is why I sincerely appreciate Simplicius‘ efforts to bring us the truth.
I think Simplicus focuses too much on objective measures to the exclusion of the morale factor that will ultimately be decisive here. Even the Japanese in WWII had to surrender eventually. The Ukrainians are not Japanese. At some point propaganda and threat will not keep people fighting for a losing cause. Pinpointing the moment of collapse is hard from here, and doing an AAR on the objective measures Simplicus follows after the collapse is going to show us that it would have been hard to tell exactly when it was going to happen.
Yes, numbers on 2000 miles contact line are similar, big changes are not likely. But whole psychological approach to war was based on certain Ukrainian victory, both in mobilizing Ukrainian society to support vocal aggressive nationalist minority in choosing and following strategy of provoking Russia into aggression and in mobilizing support for victim of unprovoked aggression who is however an underdog going to crush the mightier opponent.
If reality of Ukraine not winning, not going to win in the immediate future, not going to win in foreseeable future, not going to win ever, and losing an enormous number of men, endangering future of the nation in the war becomes clearly visible, situation in the battlefield will not immediately change, but psychological house of cards supporting the war will begin to crumble.
As I understand Simplicius supports his vision of current situation and implications for Future, i.e. how the war will unfold by extensive citations from available sources, primary; Telegram Tik tok as well as secondary main stream media, especially quotes from interesting/important individuals, political, military etc. He is the opposite of ISW.
ISW is Institute for the study of War, a CIA or deep state run website that is commenting on war in a way that is always positive for US and allies. Like BBC on steroids.
yep. it's a heap of crap.
Could you explain what are you confused about?
My understanding is that Ukraine has 'enough' soldiers to man their defensive lines at the moment and in the foreseeable future. This means that there are enough troops to make the Russians 'go slowly' (since they are risk and casualty adverse), in order to minimize losses.
Most of Ukrainian troops at this point are not fit, well-trained, or well-armed (although some in the more elite, ideological, and mercenary units are). This kind of military force really limits the Ukrainian ability to 'attack' (or perhaps I should say 'attack successfully', because for whatever reason Ukraine keeps attacking (e.g. Krinky)).
The collapse of military recruiting and the draft in Ukraine is choking off military replacement significantly, but there are still enough resources to keep the trenches filled with 'meat' if the military hierarchy prioritizes that activity. A rule of thumb might be that 1/3 of Ukraine's mobilized force is in the trenches at any one time, 1/3 is in some form of 'recovery' (new recruits in training, wound recovery, experienced troops in specialized training, post-combat reorganization of shattered troops just coming off the line, soldiers on leave), and at least 1/3 is in 'service support' to repair equipment, deliver supplies, etc. If you want to keep the trenches filled (and recruitment has collapsed), you can start to denude those last two categories -- that action of course just degrades your military's performance even further but you can keep 'just enough' rifles in the static defenses to hold the line and make limited attacks. Ukraine can also tap its 18-28 year old population more heavily than they have (there are a lot of exceptions given to the draft for schooling and war-critical industries and to certain politically important metro areas). Tapping these resources has been a political 'dynamite' but it could be done which would give the Ukrainian army more resources it it is pursued.
Therefore, this war can go on for a long time ('to the last Ukranian') -- IF Ukrainian morale stays together. But as HBI noted somewhere here, war's usually don't end that way ('to the last man') -- especially if the troops believe that they are being 'thrown away recklessly', or if they feel like 'some are serving while others party at home', or if they feel like their friends and families are at greater risk from predators at home (than the enemy to their front), or if they feel like surrender and eventual repatriation is a good option, or if they are short on foot, fuel, and ammunition, etc etc. It just takes time for the losses, the cold, the disillusionment, etc to take hold.
You get the picture. At this point it all depends on morale, and the odds of 'something breaking' either on the home front or battle line are high. We commentators are just morbidly speculating on 'when and what' will trigger this catastrophic collapse in morale. The war is materially and strategically and economically lost for Ukraine -- we are just waiting to see how the 'end game' all plays out.
Marcif -- I saw your detailed response later on another thread and liked it as well. Your assessment of 'how many are actually in the trenches' and my comment on fit hand and glove.
There is reality beneath the media presented surface. It can be reached from the keyboard of your device. A combination of facts that cannot be hidden and logic that reflects the laws governing universe, specially behaviour of humans, armies and states. It is easier to guided by someone you trust, like Simplicius or MacGregor or BigSerge or Mearsheimer but in the end one has to be able to orient himself by himself, using facts and logic.
And learn both from those who know more as from those who ask simple questions.
So in this spirit of expecting to learn something from your question I sincerely expect to join in investigating what is the cause of confusion.
Ukraine seems far from finished, seems to have enough reserves to can keep going for quite a while that is true.
But this is also true:
the only possible pathway leading to victory of Ukraine has closed,
there is little evidence that Enormous amount of money, weapons that would be necessary for Ukraine to have another chance to win at battlefield is coming again, or will ever come again
Ukraine survives only because of western help
Ukraine needs still significant amount of help just to keep stalemate
Ukraine with all the help keeps losing men, and even if money, weapons come from the west, men will not come.
A very difficult position. Will it get better in 2024?
That is exactly what is or what should be on Ukrainian leaders mind: 250 000 soldiers, 250 000 reserves is quite a lot
But not enough
A long retreat. And final defeat. If now there are over 300 000 deaths, how many more will fall? And for what?
Time has come when Ukraine as a nation has different strategic goal from US/Nato. But there is no one to say it aloud. US diplomats, politicians, pundits never thought about this war through the lens of Ukrainian national interest. Ukrainians have been subjected to oppression by extreme nationalists installed by US/CIA after 2014, that only grew worse with the unresolved conflict in the East, and was so strong that Zelensky who won elections running on a peace platform against nationslist Poroshenko was forced to change course. Russia has started SMO and did quite an impressive offer in Spring 2022 peacetalks in Istambul, but US blocked potential ceasefire.
No one in US no one in Ukraine leadership, no one in EU has Ukrainian national interest as a primary objective.
Ukraine will have to follow US instructions, and keep defending, at least until the US elections. EU/Germany will have to cover expenses. War will drag on until the will or number of soldiers is depleted. Tragic
By that logic, Iraq should have hung on for years in both 1991 and 2003.
Morale collapse is far more destructive than just killing people.
Nobody in the Ukrainian leadership cares about Ukraine's national interest either.
Ukrainian resistance still seems formidable, but rational leader if he were independent, that is if he had Ukrainian interest as the most important, would now decide to try and end the war.
Unfortunately Ukrainian current leadership is not following primarily Ukrsinisn interest. It is confusing.
The only reasonable explanation is Ukrainian leadership gambles on including NATO directly in the war.
I see a distinct picture coming from the current events on the battlefiled. Ukraine cannot advance. They have reserves, but they're poorl;y trained. They can fight, but they've lost their officer corp and lack leadership and strategic directio on the front. Their weapons are failing, their ammo resources are depleted and getting worse. Russia, on the other hand, has none of these issues. Instead of flinging themselves at the Ukraininas in a big arrow move, they hang back, strike where they see wekness, and attrit the Ukrainians day-in and day-out. This has been their strattegy since the Kharkov/Kherson events. The Russians have never been stronger and they have more to bring to the fight when they're ready. It might take longer, but victory is victory.
Or as long as the sweet western cash keeps flowing, the skim can continue.
I suspect a primary reason the west might choose to keep the conflict "active" is to mask the possibility President Putin/Russia have no desire to take on the burden of trying to control Europe. As long as the conflict is in play, the narrative of Putin wants to rule the world still sells; at least to the fools among us.
You are right - they'll leave this to the EU and to NATO - who could do a better job - and they'll happily leave rump Ukraine as well - this will further drain EU NATO, who will import the Nazi elements
I defer to my last sentence.
I defer to 'fools'
That is probably your best option.
and the most easily enjoyable
I refer you to the Saigon and Afghanistan exit.
Hollywood, the U.S. Media (same thing) will be cobbling together a "Great Victory" on how fighting Russia in the Ukraine saved the "Spirit of the Ukrainian People from the Hordes of illiterate Russians/Mongols, despite having lost the entire country of Ukraine." This will come with newly recarved-face Madonna dancing like a teenage virgin, Old Joe sniffing many young heads, Hunter doing his best lines, and AG Garland doing a post script choking Lady Justice "the bitch deserved it."
Razzamatazz. Hu-Rah. USA, USA, USA.
Next crisis. Waiting on deck.
And there are just so many to choose from!
Ohhh...man, you are on a roll.
Razzamatazz? Wow!!! 🍺
In fact Europe is the natural Russian partner. But unfortunately it has been hijacked by US led political prostitutes and morons.
Yep, for some reason we allow emotionally twisted people the opportunity to guide government(s). How stupid is that?
Careful American planning post WW2 allowed US to hijack European power circles.
That and Europe's willingness to submit put us where we are today; not a pretty picture.
15 Dec 2023 The Economist joins in: Sanctions are working, or even if they are not an expanding economy is a disaster for Russia
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/10/vladimir-putin-is-running-russias-economy-dangerously-hot/
Success is failure
‘Look closer at Mr Putin’s wartime economy, however, and it becomes clear that it is dangerously overheating. Inflation in the services sector, which includes everything from legal advice to restaurant meals, is exceptionally high. The cost of a night’s stay at Moscow’s Ritz-Carlton, now called the Carlton after its Western backers pulled out, has risen from around $225 before the invasion to $500. This suggests that the cause of inflation is home-grown.’
‘Look closer’! The one fact is fact free – impacts westie journalists using dollars but no one else, no wonder the Economist journo is complaining
‘The problem is that the Russian economy cannot take such rapid growth.’ The growth referred to is 3%
“Unemployment, at less than 3%, is at its lowest on record, which is emboldening workers to ask for much higher wages. Nominal pay is growing by about 15% year on year. Companies are then passing on these higher costs to customers.”
Low unemployment and higher wages for workers are bad
Next up - Western economies are so strong they benefit from recession
Oh my, “Unemployment, at less than 3%, is at its lowest on record, which is emboldening workers to ask for much higher wages. Nominal pay is growing by about 15% year on year. Companies are then passing on these higher costs to customers.”
How terrible! Workers ask for much higher wages! The audacity! Much better when everybody has low wages and the inflation melts away the income gradually! War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
The West has become the USSR 4.0, maybe even worse, I don't think the Soviet Polit Kommissars were that stupid and corrupt. But maybe some former Soviet citizens can enlighten us. This is just embarrassingly stupid. The Economist was a good newspaper, well maybe 20 years ago it was.
I agree – any Russian 12 year old could write a more intelligent and more adult objective analysis
As per screening the FT, it is apparent that this section of the western press is contracted to make very simple statements summing up or outlining the orthodoxy, the Party Line
The relationship of these statements to reality is irrelevant
Hence all the propaganda about what ‘facts’ are, ‘really in fact’ are; instruments of oppression of something minorities or marginalized
So that very crudely worded idealisations of intent substitute for preparation for action, or are believed to be sufficient for, or …whatever…it hardly matters
https://www.ft.com/content/088c8e89-fdf0-4be5-9b8a-33e2c5f8264a
‘UK defence minister Grant Shapps has made a thinly veiled criticism of western nations whose support for Ukraine in its war against Russia appears to be faltering.
“We simply can’t have an outcome where a dictator, an autocratic dictator, walks into a neighbouring democratic country and the west gets bored of it,” he told the BBC, without specifying any nation.
“That is an unacceptable outcome to this. That’s why it’s so important to get on with the job now.”’
'Get on with the job'! This is schoolboy larking
When it is widely published that the U.K. army could put together perhaps 40 tanks that function, maybe an equipped division
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4
W.S.J. Dec 11
‘Britain announced its biggest increase in defense spending since the Cold War in 2020. But the overall army size is still expected to shrink to 72,500 full-time troops from a previous target of 82,000. It is replacing its 227 tanks with 148 more-modern versions, but those won’t be deployed until 2027. Of its existing 227 tanks, only 157 can be deployed within 30 days and perhaps only 40 are fully functioning and ready to move, military analysts said, as many are in storage or being upgraded.
The Economist was not good 20 years ago, when it did a full-magazine special on the insurance industry, with a focus on America's industry. I thought, "Wow!" and sent it to a friend who had been in the business for 20 years. His response was scathing. All the information was either stale or flat wrong. Note, this was on an anodyne topic. Nothing was at stake, and certainly not the Empire. In the late 1980's, The Economist did a hit piece on Vietnam, saying their economy was not developing very well. What this bastion of British arrogance and stupidity refused to mention, was that Vietnam suffered the loss of 3 million men and had more bombs dropped on it than Germany in WW2. So of course they had trouble.
There is not one British journal or newspaper that is worth reading to obtain truth. Rarely, it's worth reading between the lines for a perspective on what the elites are saying or thinking at the moment. Damn them all.
It is certainly true that reading S and others who report accurately on the war and it's context is much more useful and stimulating than reading the Economist the FT and so on
But- on the grounds of the old principle - know your enemy- it is useful to learn what the dominant class are thinking preparing and planning - because they are quite open about it
Also- it is instructive to learn quite how ignorant and in efficient this their chosen press and journalists are - the articles are as badly conceived and put together as those statements and actions of the other segments of the governing class, notably the politicians – their analysis of the situation infantile and their actions ineffective
It is of direct and practical use to know the limits of the dominant class and the limitations of their servants, the businessclass, administrativeclass etc
These inefficiencies can be compared/contrasted to the otherwise actions and statements of the RF, and others
These west dominant/governing classes are allowed to be so stupid because there is no opposition- it is time that this changed
Hard to back it with numbers. But the sentiment in Russia is that West currently is so far up its own ass, that it is worse than USSR was. USA seems to make many mistakes that destroyed us, however with even less thinking.
Actually the "success is failure" phrase is incomplete. It should be "success is failure and failure is success" and probably should not be assigned to Russia but to WEF controlled governments. I coined this phrase a year ago when discussing the decline of the US and the EU - the Western puppets, really and the cross purpose stupidities of destructive government policies. These policies from the attacks on health, open border policies, degrading education, attacks on main street economies and degrading the military, agricultural sectors, and population numbers in general are all outlined in the WEF wish list as stated in its initial web site (and infamous video) Agenda 21. These policies are nihilistic for globalist captured governments and are supported by autocratic attacks on the MSM and our basic rights for most Western countries. Russia is not a globalist captured state,. nor is it reflected in the growing strength of BRICS - which are generated by nationalism and growing disdain for Western hegemony.
I realize that this is not a comprehensive essay about this trend but it does suggest the reality that this is a political movement which targets the control of elitist interests over whole hemispheres. The movie, as shown, is part of the plan where the chaos shown is yet another self destructive element of the plan for rapid change. We are on a road of massive disruption, part of it planned by those in control, and part of a "reset" that is "founded" in the basics of a failing fundamental and inevitable GLOBAL monetary system and failing financial system. The BRICS will eventually seek the stability of a gold standard (the most stable backing of a sound money policy) and the West will founder down this road into a form of oligarchy type of slavocracy. At present it seems to most like a developing "idiocracy". This is a statement that is all to brief an explanation for the changes coming; it only covers the wider details of this process. If we are lucky these transitions will not precipitate wider wars and more chaos that will put all sides in tragedy.
If Putin were to discover a miracle cure for cancer using this one weird old trick, the MSM would bewail all the doctors and nurses he put out of work.
typo alert covid not cancer......surely, whatever
That appears to be from the same Economist edition whose cover story is "Rishi Sunak's Strategic Genius"?
Hmm. Perhaps not the E's finest hour? :)
You've generally had a pretty good handle on the force numbers so you're probably right, but Putin did mention in the 44k sent home some were "health related" which could be a nuanced way of saying casualties and the remainder not mentioned could be dead. Either way, nothing makes me believe they've lost the 350k mentioned by the media earlier this week.
Or maybe jab issues .....
Hot off the Press - FT - EU fails to agree E50B funding package for Ukraine
This means they'll have to work to find the money, because Ukraine will not be let go of, even if they have to send some active ingredients to persuade EU politicians and their families
15 December 2023 FT EU fails to vote through UKr money, but wants UKr in EU
https://www.ft.com/content/deb40df7-7832-4fee-a822-655ab0288c05
Accession process to begin : Failure to vote money
This is a perfect score – the EU will have to pick up the pieces in Ukraine, take care of the Nazis, pay the rent, clean the dirty dishes
While not having the money to do so
The perfect end to a perfect war – years of bureaucratic infighting, and a lot of votes which any EU country, as yesterday, can veto – a bureaucrat’s paradise
As previously hinted – it may also suit RF to have a feeble EU obliged to take responsibility for the UKr rump
By "active ingredients", I trust you don't mean special forces? ;)
Nazis
Ok, thanks.
Thanks for this quality collection.
For what it's worth, I've always assumed that the war is planned to move into the 1984 scenario, of perpetual war, happening far away, where no-one really knows how real the war is; just there to provide the sense of emergency for justifying hardship and dictatorship.
Indeed. It's difficult to evaluate how much of this war is real and how much is political theatre designed to to obscure the 'great reset' as both sides push ahead with CBDCs etc.
I don't think CBDCs will happen at retail level here in the US. Powell & the Banksters are dead set against it. Plus we don't have even close to the infrastructure needed to support it. Since going to 4G, I have fairly reliable internet connectivity in a single 3'sq space in my house. Per my homeowner's insurance co. & a rep from tracfone, this is the case all over the country. I drive 5 miles to the library to do important online stuff without interruption & losing everything.
And I don't live in the middle of nowhere. Midcoast Maine within 5 miles of at least 1 retired bankster, 20 miles of Rockefeller mountain, some Eisenhowers, Valerie Jarret summer home, etc.
Pretty sure its Rockefellers private jet over my house during odd hours since the Ukr went south, summer of 22. Flights increase with every major turning point & start of Israeli attack on Gaza.
I think you're probably right about retail CBDCs. Fiat money has made the bigwigs what they are. Why change a winning formula? However I do think retail CBDCs combined with a social credit system remain in the toolbox as an option if the current financial system collapses. Especially if depopulation efforts result in a much smaller number of people who can be controlled in 'smart cities'. Having said that I don't think that the degenerate psychopaths who rule us are all powerful. Here in the UK the establishment backed down pretty quickly on COVID medical fascism as by my estimates c. 30% of us said no thanks to the jibbyjab. Likewise the recent anti genocide protests in London really freaked out the powers that be.
The Banksters don't want to lose their grift. 1 central cbdc "bank" cuts them out if the pic.
Where cbdc has failed in trials, 2 problems arose. Inadequate infrastructure & immediate, spontaneous emergence of black market.
I already entered a gray market during covid, finding a source for ivermectin + instructions for homemade hydroxychloroquine.
Yep. People will find lots of workarounds.
It's why I got 3 hens,. This spring will practice preserving eggs (waterglassing).
I agree. The WEF component/faction in Western governments are "pushing" with the decline and the chaos, especially the financial instabilities, may disrupt the WEF plans somewhat. If the damage "overtakes" the process the currency system will fail even without the "pause" that "they" see that a CBDC might achieve. And yes,. the CBDC is not a solution, but a stopgap solution. The BRICS will have to return to gold (is this a race?) but will not solve the problem for the East (non globalists) about trade settlement based on shunning US currencies as policy under BRICS.
Re: BRICS I think CBDCs are more likely to work for a commodities based economy like Russia and possibly China. The ruling class in both these countries would find the CBDC/social credit combination appealing to secure their power. And Russia in particular has little to lose in such an experiment. It's not as if the ruble is king of the fiat currencies.
Well, ok. But Putin (Xi too) know the stability of a gold standard. China has bought some 20,000 tonnes of the stuff and has a CBDC to boot. So the question becomes: can a government bring the discipline of a gold standard to the availability of a digital currency?
Putin is on record favoring cbdcs to facilitate international trade, while keeping local currencies within country (ie retail).
That is basically what Powell supports. US CBDC trials were to stay competitive in international trade.
Agreed. We are often too negative. 30% of us fought back and won against the jab mandates. People are already fighting back against any CBDC malarkey they try to introduce. 5 US states have local "goldback" currencies for barter, trade and discounts. Lots of other freedom-loving places will tell the globalists where to shove their CBDCs and credit score.
Yup, it only needs enough people. If only the majority of people would get rid of their TV's and learn about current affairs from people who were there.
(TVs short for mainstream media, including Facebook, Google and YouTube).
I wonder if the airstrip on NorthHaven can accommodate them?
Pretty sure they have their own private airstrip. My old atlas shows a little plane on Bald Mountain.
Interesting, thank you. Let's hope!
Putin is orchestrating this conflict for maximum pain on the West, and it's working, while minimizing casualties on the regular Russian army and marines, as opposed to the convicts and territorials...Well played!
And by Putin you mean the entire Russian MOD and staff, but yeah they have done an impressive job calculating and navigating the risks.
Agreed. It's a team effort, and their team is strong. Putin is a canny leader, and Lavrov and Medvedev are no slouches either. Meanwhile, we have Joe, Kamala, Olaf, Ursula...
It's not just any "team." It's many highly qualified people who are all on the same page, all seeking the same goals, all working hard and conscientiously. Obviously, their inspiration is not Putin, but big issues of civilization and God. Putin is merely an enabler, but this man is of a quality which might show up every several hundred years - if we are fortunate.
absolutely, Jess. Russians still seem to have a common culture. Sure, the big cities have their simpering liberals like any Western city, but unlike here, their views aren't allowed to corrupt society as a whole.
He's going for the "Death by a thousand cuts" option, and doing it brilliantly. There is no-one on "our" side to match him.
Another spectacular summary from Simplicius with fascinating insights, embedded links and videos and articles. Real on the ground analysis of WW3.
The reason the ukrop now declares andivka to be so important is that they are all out of excuses for not winning the war...when they lost the town formerly called bakmuht they and the western handlers still convinced themselves they would win. it was a temporary set back and soon the hohols would be retaking mauriupol..now the americans are looking for plausible excuses for the failure of their great gambit and its obvious to everyone ukraine will NEVER regain its territories...in fact it will lose more before the americans allow them to quit. by then there will be a stockpile of rehearsed excuses the yankees can use and all of them will be defamatory of the ukrainians.
I noticed the NAFO hordes screeching that the entire world will be crushed if Ukraine does not win. It’s a pretty lame ploy but they are giving it the community college try!
I certainly agree with your comments about not retaking territory.
As for Andrivka, militarily, unlike Bahkmuht, it is actually important (the following is not necessarily against what you were trying to say, but to give some military context: you can't tell on the maps you see of the frontline but Andrivka sits on a set of foothills of relatively high ground that is militarily significant for defense. If the Ukrainians lose those positions (and the hills just to the immediate West of Andrivka), then the next 'defensible' terrain is 30-50km further west. Pulling to the West would expose and undermine the defenses that the Ukrainians have built since 2014 in Nieu York and other places up and down the whole Donbas line. Of course, the Ukrainians may chose to stay in the low lands (after being evicted from Andrivka) and just suffer. In Bahkmuht, the Ukrainians defended a relatively hard to defend city in a valley long after the surrounding hills to the east were captured by the Russians -- costing the Ukrainians excessive amounts of casualties. So I suppose that they could 'repeat the disaster and defend the indefensible' some more after Andrivka but you get the picture.
As to why Ukraine held Bakhmuht, I don't think it was because of the West -- from what I heard it was despite what the the West asked them to do -- but ultimately it doesn't really matter. Just more tragedy.
I think these 'meat-grinder' positions were held onto because those were the positions used to punish civilians for rejecting Ukro plans. They wanted to be able to continue with this core aspect of their war.
as for the "civil war"..maybe...americans are schizoid and anti social and obsessed with the great american homicide-hero fantasy..it might be the only way they can find an opponent they can beat
I think texas is having that question put on a vote next year. Succession. But between California and the talk. Usa seems to be breaking up faster than the subject of any RAND think tank fantasy
Probably liberal Hollywood types trying to scare Americans into voting for Biden, because Trump would bring "civil war"
As always, thank you. 🙏
I would have liked more from Putin’s Q&A.
The movie is an unknown, can’t say until the full story. Could be a warning, fear mongering against Trump, or predictive programming to condition the populace to what’s to come. I’ll say this though, Texas and California being on the same side is ridiculous.
Any updates on Gaza?
The American Empire won't give up that easily. "Putin plans to invade Europe!" will be given wings by the Baltics and Moldova attacking their respective Russian enclaves - but under the western media radar, so the inevitable response will be screamed as "unprovoked", much like the Hamas assault.
More expendable European bodies will be blown apart "To weaken Russia".
While America runs on "narrative", when the chips are down they don't care - naked power will do as well.
And who can stop them? Certainly not Western "voters" in our sham, State/CIA controlled elections.
As someone said recently, the USA need a "non-Zionist party" to vote for, which sounds impossible. How much more impossible is a party that stands against the Empire itself?
Who can stop them?- well the EU politicos/bureaucrats can stop them by not being able to do anything, one example- latest FT article on EU's failure to pass their E50B plan for Ukraine, and the US is not going to be able (or want) to run the EU and NATO without (some) positive help from the Europeans
The Baltic states may wish to sacrifice themselves, but they would not know how to do it
Never underestimate the stupidity/herlplessness of a colonialised class
Yes, perhaps, but the US destroying the EU when it took down the Russian pipelines also will take down NATO. We won't know the details until the dust settles.
IT would appear that the USA is sacrificing the EU to milk a few more years of “primacy”....or you could sprinkle in something more sinister like a Kalergi plan.
This is more like shooting oneself in the foot, to earn some pennies. The pennies being a dribble to the US of European, mostly German industry, as the EU fails in earnest. Now Biden is talking of putting troops on the ground with his degraded and inept military and a NATO that is also failing due to these same policies. I am referring yet again to the US destruction of Russia's pipelines. It seems to me very inept as a means to continue the war - all the current US policies that seem to only support failure. For me this is aggressive WEF/globalist deindustrialising policies, not positive strategies that support hegemonic goals. Does the WEF want WW3? No, but it does kill two birds with a stone - it manages and degrades the possibility of war with Russia AND degrades all of Europe both economically and militarily.
A country can do anything it likes domestically or geostrategically as long as the press is controlled.
15 Dec 2023 EU NATO and the power to do something
It’s likely that both NATO and the EU stumble from incompetence to insignificance, through their own determination to do nothing but pose for the camera, and follow their bureautrash instincts into crossing t’s and regulating nouns
Not to forget the role played by the RF
You aver that ‘countries can do anything they like…’ – this is un proven in this war the EUUS picked with the RF – the EU especially but the US also have shown themselves to actually do nothing much at all of any real significance, although they have released millions of lines of what we will do etc, and claim to have spent some money
Or – one might say these impotents do not wish to ‘do’ anything but copy speeches and plagiarise clichés
All the above refers more particularly to the colonialised governing classes in the EU outer provinces or borderlands, not to oppressed workers everywhere
Cf KK of Estonia
Shouldn't Russia be disrupting the construction of defense lines and bunkers already?
As for the expected American civil war, it's probably already planned by the real rulers of the world. While we thought Hollywood was used for prep-programming by CIA, perhaps it was more the "chosen ones", many of whom are among the invisible rulers dreaming of global domination.
With reference to your previous post, how come Ukrainians are sitting quietly allowing their country's assets to be sold off to big corporations, not to "save" the country but for few elites to stuff their pockets more and further depopulate the country?
If anyone thinks you can dig trenches with hand tools in frozen ground they are deluded. Russia built theirs when roads weren't muddy , and the front was far enough away it wasnt bothered much. I do recall a video of a drone hitting an excavator that was working once. Big yellow machinery would be a tasty target for a geran .who is even pouring the concrete teeth in a heated building in winter?
RF needs to shoot every nato drone down no more Intel for sneak attacks. There's no politeness left for that. But who am I.
I did note putin referenced the graveyard of children called Gaza and compared Russia's action to what Israel is doing. Everyone can see that , even through the bs western propaganda, no one is as evil as zionazi , even the Azov tornado battalion nazis are somewhat kindergarten to them.
What is your opinion on Wartears?
Why does nobody in western press point out the obvious contradiction in "putin has taken 87% casualties, his army is in ruins" and " if we don't stop the Russians they will conquer all of europe"
I mean Russia has 140mn people or so, they are much bigger than Ukraine, but if they've taken 300k casualties the evidence would be impossible to hide, right?
Nobody cares that the narrative is self-contradictory or obvious BS as long as it works.
None other than Arestovich said something to that effect.
Hollywood scripts are good for about one line or so,like a drug prescription, ha ha .
The line seems to have changed, as Alex christoforou notices. From as long as it takes to as long as we can or as long as we feel like it .
Seems like like maybe tonight we have a headache and we'll have to skip out the next few scAmerican warz