You are right, the version of S's post published in Russian is much more rabble rousingly raucous in a Tolstoyan dimension than this rather mean spirited and subdued babble he is allowed to publish in the West
Such are the sanctions imposed - and you are right to say they bite back against the sanctioners and to their misfortune and disgrace
Hope is at hand - there are certain Arctic exclusionary clauses and privileges being opened up this semester which ....well S will have to be allowed to announce these, but they are on the level of the Joint Declaration, watch this space
"Ukraine" is not holding anything FFS. It's NATO. The combined West. Don't you get that? They are holding because Russia is playing their game, and wants to demilitarise Ukraine and, to some degree, NATO.
If this was a real war, you think it would play out like this? Come on, you are just making yourself look silly here.
Are you aving a giraffe mate, if Ukraine was a sovereign country led by a government that truly cared for its citizens' lives, they would have sought a peace deal within months of the conflict's onset. Oh wait, but were contemptuously overruled by their overlords, told to fight too the last Ukrainian. As a result, it is celebrated by those narcissistic evil individuals as a small price for the US government to bear. The same individuals now plan to further influence an unpopular reduction of the mobilization age to 18 years, and then remove their tyrant Elensky to bear the blame for such destructive legislation to keep the conflict going. This is not about holding, this is about the west caring nothing about Ukraine, just as long as it can weaken Russia.
"if Ukraine was a sovereign country led by a government that truly cared for its citizens' lives" there would not have been election witnesses in 2004, a Maidan violent coup, no MH-17 shoot down, no Debaltsovo, NO ELENSKY!
This is for the ignorant doomers, and malicious trolls, the imbeciles that want Russia to nuke Euro cities, here is VVP explaining it simply straight from the SPIEF conference:
"It is possible to speed up the solution of the tasks of a special operation, but only at the cost of increased losses, and the lives of the Russian military are more important"
Good points - read any of the transcripts of VVP's meeting in Russia in Moscow and in the provinces and his command of every aspect of society and life in his country is extraordinary
Many are reproduced at the Kremlin website and many are transcribed and into English by Karl Sanchez at https://karlof1.substack.com/
Very true. What the West especially hates about such interviews is how it's completely obvious that there are no Western "leaders" who come close to Putin's intellect and competence. None of them could sit down and discuss such complex topics at such length without it being clear to every listener that they don't have anywhere near Putin's competence.
The proper response to NATO encroaching on Russia should have been having Russian missile frigates carrying hypersonic nukes stationed 40-50 miles away from the coast all around the US, to be constantly rotated but always there.
But can't hurt dear partners' feelings like that...
Look up missile flight times and then detection and decision response times.
NATO in Ukraine makes a decapitating+disarming strike on Russia possible. NATO in Finland too, but for some reason the Kremlin decided to sit on its hands on that issue instead of neutralizing the threat preemptively.
You have to counter that with similarly short flight times with respect to the enemy's critical systems.
It isn't the availability of weapons, it's the willingness to use them.
Ansar Allah actually doesn't even need Russian weapons. They already had everything it needed to send every NATO vessel in a rather large radius to the bottom of the sea, from the Iranians.
The only thing that increase their capabilities would be Kalibr-M missiles, as those have 4,500 km range (remember - it has to be ground launched, as they have no planes and submarines). They can hit all the way to northern Italy with that.
But then it is a matter of having the balls to actually use the weapons.
Even the Houthis have been very careful not to sink ships, only to damage them.
And unlike Putin, who is extremely afraid to go after those who are barely even hiding behind Ukraine at this point, such attacks will not be taken to come from the Ansar Allah by the West.
Similarly, Syria has been bombed by the Israelis for years. The Russians have S-300s and S-400s there, but have not shot down a single Israeli plane. Too afraid. Syria could have used some Tornado-S and Iskanders to destroy the US bases. But again, everyone was too afraid to do it.
Until that changes, it really doesn't matter who the weapons have been given to.
Well, realistically speaking according to Putin it's 50k total losses per month at 50/50 ratio. That means 25,000 "irrecoverable". But irrecoverable can be further broken down into KIA, MIA, maimed, POW, etc. So out of that 25,000 irrecoverable only half, for instance, might be actually total KIA, with the other half losing limbs, being captured, etc. Thus it could be as low as 12,000 actual dead per month for AFU, which would be about 400 per day.
A while ago, I read (in some UA and Russian channels) about an extraordinarily high rate of non combat losses in the Ukrainian forces, namely north of 30% of the UA armed forces. Those losses include accidents (including deadly substance abuse from alcohol to drugs), suicides, violence among troops, diseases.
The comparable losses we know from the USSR, by the book of Krivosheyev "Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century, London/Mechanicksburg PA 1993, are between 12 and 18%, from WWII to Afghanistan, so that is an outstanding figure. Those figures have to be added to the overall losses, also the unknown toll of the daily raids in the Ukrainian rear.
Just leaving this here for comparison. The smell is off on the presented numbers. Admittedly, the OIF/OEF numbers are lacking a category of 'WIA permanently out of action' or somesuch to be directly comparable to what you are doing.
Thx interesting chart. Can you specify what you are saying though? If you are implying the KIA to WIA is too high in the SMO as compared to U.S. KIA:WIA it's likely because U.S. wars were very low intensity with the opposing side not having much weaponry that can inflict serious grievous and lethal injuries. That means it's understandable that a far higher percentage of casualties would be light treatable wounds.
In the Ukrainian war on the other hand a far greater proportion of wounds are lethal because both sides are slinging ungodly amounts of heavy firepower the likes of which was never witnessed in any of the U.S. conflicts.
I'm also conscious that while some nastier weapons are in use in Ukraine, people still die from the same old same old, exploding vehicles, cooked off explosives, etc. The *scale* is larger but the death is just as real. As i've related in the past, getting blown up by an IED composed of a few 152mm shells is no joke either. Hamburger is made whether the shell is fired or exploded underneath you.
Anyway to be completely clear, there are unquestionably a lot of wounded. Many of them return to service after a short (or no) convalescence, but most WIA figures don't differentiate between that person and someone with a traumatic brain injury, for instance.
You sound unfamiliar with the Eastern and Italian fronts. They were horrific in their own right. Worth a look up. The attrition was just as bad there, though the trench networks might not have been as complex.
The whole article is retarded. Why would he take Putins numbers at face value at all? It is impossible Ukraine to have 1 million casualties, that would be over 10,000 per month, this would be more than their entire defenses in some areas, yet Russia doesn't move an inch. What a stupid fucking article lmao
Russia's losses are 300,000+ irrecoverable while Ukraines is around 150,000
I don't believe that either. I'll leave body counts for historians. Ukraine is losing, that much is clear. Even if your numbers were accurate, Ukraine has far fewer people to lose.
If you call shells falling on Russian territory, missiles hitting Russian planes and radar installations, and NATO corridors for intervention just "barking", well, keep telling yourself that.
You keep on selling CIA one liners - NATO is doing what more than barking - NATO is doing very close to nothing, that which is being destroyed in Ukraine
they have yet to accept defeat, meaning, US & West have not yet conceded victory to Russia. And they will definitely not concede until November 2024, US elections.
War is being fought
A. on battlefield (Russia is undoubtedly winning)
B. through mobilization, force generating
C. economy (Russia undoubtedly surviving sanctions, and having BRICS and China's support = winning)
In B. force generating, it is of extreme importance to keep pretence Ukrainians believe in final victory, this is done by media war, waged in Ukraine in Europe and US.
Since the real results from real battlefield are depressing, in media war, escalation is the only way to keep the pretence of fighting spirit.
The core is made of extreme nationalists that believe in fighting RUssia and are in best brigades, in secrete service, and control political organizations and media, and absolutely corrupt guys who are pretending to be nationalists but primarily obey grab as much and as long as you can rule.
Extremists are believers, by definition. Western pundits, military commentators, strategists, Phillips O Brian, Ben Hodges, Michael McFaul, do it for money, it is their job, they "believed" in victory in Afghanistan, Iraq, until withdrawal was announced.
Corruption, pouring billions into Ukraine, means efforts to keep army fighting are well payed, also corruption is eating from inside,
Bad news from the battlefield would cause internal tensions rise. Escalation covers that up. Forced mobilizaton produces weak force, weak force suffers greater casualties, greater casualties erode support for war, greater erosion makes mobilization - force generation more difficult, weaker force means losing ground on battlefield.
Is is a vicious cycle that US is doing its best to prop up until elections, still not really wanting NATO RUssia war.
Advancement of European forces into Ukraine is potentially a positive news for Russia.
It beggars belief that, if what people here say were true, that nobody in the Champs d'Elyssee can take Macron aside and tell him to stop letting his mouth write checks that his ass cannot cash.
Who is hitting who, increasingly deeper and deeper, while not being hit in return?
That's what it boils down to.
Putin started this war in order to not have to one day fight NATO at his border. Not in order to defend Russians in Ukraine, to stop the nazification of the country, to prevent its de-Russification, etc. etc. If it was about those things, the war would have started 20 years ago. No, it was only when the prospect of having NATO missiles on the border was imminent that he launched the war.
Well, guess what, NATO missiles are now being fired into Russia from right at the border.
And no Russian missiles are flying into NATO territory.
Who is winning then?
This isn't 1941 when in retrospect the Germans were already losing in October-November despite pushing towards Moscow. Because they were being exhausted in the process. There is zero attrition of NATO strategic assets at the moment while the Russian ones are under daily attack.
Those S-300s and S-400s being smoked in Belgorod and Kursk are supposed to guard against NATO air raids from a western direction. And that's only one small example.
Russia seems to fight it's war like I do "arguing with idiots on the internet" (Disclaimer: I've not noticed any idiots here, I'm talking about elsewhere..)
I don't react to insults or denigration until I am ready to respond. I don't always fight the opponent as they would wish to be fought, I just write what needs to be written when it needs to be done, and do my best to be right and proportionate about it.
Yeah, problem is it isn't the internet but real life.
If you are in a real physical fight and approach it that way, there is a good chance you end up dead.
The lines beyond which kinetic response was not just warranted, but absolutely mandatory, were crossed a very long time ago.
Three main issues now:
1) Lack of protection of the Russian civilian population
2) Attacks on key strategic systems, which cannot be allowed to continue, otherwise real degradation of vital capabilities is imminent
3) The effect the indifference of leadership has on internal moral and cohesion. The Prigozhin situation was a warning.
No, the Russian people will not rise up against Putin because they want the McDonalds and Starbucks logos back.
But they may rise against indifferent leadership that is allowing them to be bombed daily without responding while sitting on the most powerful arsenal in the world. The mood right now in Belgorod, Kursk, Crimea, Rostov, Krasnodar, etc., is not exactly positive.
Or if the people don't rise up, the military will. Because the military is much more directly under fire while being forbidden from protecting itself beyond using AD. How long will it continue to take this without tensions boiling over?
Case in point - the other day Russian Telegram started posting messages about how the green light had been given to neutralize the RQ-4Bs over the Black Sea. What happened then?
The next day FORTE12 goes on its usual mission. Then weird stuff starts to happen - it pops on and off the radars, eventually it went to Romania (where it never goes normally), but then it returned and circled over the eastern Black Sea for a long time. Then the next day FORTE14 came and it completed an interrupted mission.
So likely some jamming was applied, but then the operators turned FORTE12 back to safe territory, fixed the issue, then it returned. The next day the other drone did a full mission.
What was the net result? A Black Sea Fleet tugboat was sunk near Sevastopol, some ATACMS hit in Lugansk, refinery was set on fire in Novoshakhtinsk, etc.
Meanwhile no RQ-4Bs were sent to the bottom of the Black Sea, i.e. what is the net NATO vs. Russia score for those two days?
If that is all the "response to provocations" Putin can muster, you can expect mutiny eventually.
Either way, the West is winning:
1) Russians are dying
2) Russian infrastructure is being destroyed. Including by the Russians themselves, every time they strike TPPs and HPPs in Ukraine (they built those, and will have to rebuild them)
3) Russian strategic systems are being destroyed
4) Discontent against Putin for his herbivorous policies is rising.
Although I'm reluctant to feed trolls, I would like to point out a couple of things here: This is a - global - conflict. What happens in Ukraine is merely the component that is most visible in mainstream media. What happens in Africa, Asia, economically and diplomatically is comparatively of much more profound importance than a few square kilometers or a handful of missile strikes. The empire is coming down, and that takes precedence in any strategic discussion. Midwifing a new multipolar world is a task of a different order of magnitude compared to "protecting red lines in Belgorod". Let's keep our eyes on the ball...
Also, this not very smart Internet strategist doesn't understand the scale of Russia, Russian resources and assets. Compared to that, damage that Ukraine/NATO inflicted on Russia is still insignificant. Russian strategic capabilities still on the same level since Russian nuclear triad suffered near zero damage. And overwhelming majority of Russian territory and population still barely touched by the war.
"There is zero attrition of NATO strategic assets at the moment while the Russian ones are under daily attack."
We in the west should be eternally grateful that the Russian high command has been exceedingly restrained. But, yes, we are at an inflection point and Russia is upping its game. For starters, it's coming close to crashing the Electric power grid in Ukraine. Also, the Kremlin is titrating larger numbers of trained forces into the five major battlefronts and opportunistically advancing across key supply roads soon leading to the collapse of major strongholds across the whole front line. The Sumy region is about to be opened up pretty quickly as well.
Now Russia is sending boatloads of weaponry to the Americas which will, in turn, provoke a severe crisis in the USA during an election year. Russia will be pouring gasoline on other hotspots in the Middle East and more open alliance with the Chinese North Koreans.
Putin is also alerting the EU American public that tactical nuclear weapons are on the table.
We better hope these efforts have a big payoff. Because otherwise the next level of escalation is going to be very very unpleasant for NATO member states on both sides of the Atlantic.
Only if you don’t count doctrine as a strategic asset. The only time NATO doctrine worked was Kharkov in ‘22. The great “counter offensive” wasn’t designed n Kiev. Which raises the question of whether sending munitions to Ukraine faster than they’re produced is effective doctrine.
You assume that NATO would fair better than the VSU. It would cause more damage to Russia; it wouldn’t fair any better than Ukraine and would likely fair worse. If several Chinese divisions showed up it would fair far worse. Or even if China decided it was time to take Taiwan with NATO even more directly engaged with Russia.
NATO is the US and a bunch of satrapies with small, ineffective militaries. Turkiye’s not going to fight Russia. Poland’s military might is mostly theoretical and contracted but not delivered. NATO desperately needs Ukraine to defeat Russia in some way. That’s why they’re acting desperately.
The fact that NATO is weaker and Russia, and China and Iran likely, are stronger militarily, economically and geopolitically aught to create much cognitive dissonance for you, smart guy.
there was never any prospect of NATO missiles in Ukraine. Putin started this war in 2014 because having a Democratic country on his borders in itself is a threat to his regime. The biggest country for Russians to immigrate to at the time was Ukraine, and if Ukraine ended up looking like Poland, then prospects would be even better. The biggest threat to a dictator is the prospect of a better life for the people. All dictatorships due when opportunity for a better life becomes clear
Who cares. He who is not afraid will die. In Ukraine they were not afraid of Russia at all and laughed a lot. There are many good comedians in Kyiv. Now the respected blog author has counted millions of corpses
Currently life is much safer in Kiev, and not just Kiev, every other major city under Ukrainian control other than perhaps Kharkov, than it is in Belgorod.
In Kiev they walk around freely. have large concerts, etc. And even in Kharkov strikes are strictly on military targets. so it's mostly safe for regular people.
Meanwhile in Belgorod they are afraid to go out on the street because of the constant threat of shelling, mass gatherings have not been possible since the start of the year, etc. And nobody in Moscow can be bothered to even provide a commitment to, let alone a timeline for making this stop.
Such a remarkable success for Putinism.
Worse, Putin the other week came out and said "we do not intend to take Kharkov".
What a way to lead the country...
P.S. Whether they were maneuvered into it on purpose or not, the Ukrainians immediately mobilized the resources to counter around Kharkov.
The contrast with the herbivorous behavior of the Kremlin could not be more stark.
Zelensky has been a much better wartime leader than Putin.
He is out there every evening, defining very clear goals, and commenting on current events.
What is Putin doing?
-- Defining clear goals? Negative. Nobody knows what the goals are
-- Lifting the nation's spirit daily in the face of hardships? Negative. It's as if there is no war going on, in fact that appears to be the primary goal behind how the war is fought -- to maintain normalcy. All the way to mushroom clouds over Moscow if needed...
"Zelensky has been a much better wartime leader than Putin."
Ha, that there shows this moron's idiocy. Zelensky is a puppet, not a leader. FFS such a simple statement that shows us a window in to your ignorant little mind.
I would STFU if I was you. Actually I'd slit my wrists.
You completely fail to understand what the problem is.
Let them dance in Kiev, no issue with that. The last thing Putin should be doing is pointless terror bombing.
But another thing he should absolutely not be letting happen is terror bombing on Russian territory. And he cannot be bothered to even acknowledge it unless directly asked, let alone doing something meaningful about it.
We have been over this previously:
This is a war against Russia as aa whole launched by Western elites using Ukrainian elites as middle men and Ukrainian cannon fodder on the front lines.
If you are the Russian leadership and you are presented with this situation, which of these three groups do you go after in order to resolve the problem?
Well, according to Putin and his sycophants, of course you go after the cannon fodder while leaving those actually responsible for the war completely untouched. That is the sound and logical thing to do. Who could possibly argue otherwise...
In order to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, you have to go after the cannon fodder - that is what attrition is all about. You can go for the head but what will that accomplish - another head will replace it. You can go for the NATO head but then you are faced with WWIII - do you really want this? No, you go for the cannon fodder to destroy the head's capability of waging war. Then you go for the head.
In a war of attrition it would be folly to take the bait for escalation. The response has to be assymetric. For example, Russia could start donating heavy weapons and manpads to the Cartel, or short range missiles to Islamic cells operating in the US or UK, cruise missile to the Houthis to cause price inflation as shipping lanes close, etc, etc. The social and economic upheaval this could cause would very likely have Zelensky on the carpet in short order. In fact, I would be surprised if NATO isn't doing its best to reign him already.
"You completely fail to understand what the problem is."
You don't really seem to understand anything, much less what the problem is, what the smo is really about, why nato can't possibly win, or anything related to military strategy.
They "smell" nothing of the sort; they are Neocons and they always double down. They never admit they are wrong or that their schemes of ongoing global domination are failing. Putin is aware of this and no doubt expected it.
If the Neocons are stupid enough to get into a war in Europe with Russia, they will lose that war. The same applies if they start a war with China. America is a hollow shell of what it was at the end of World War 2. That America is long gone, what exists now does not have the industrial base or the competence to win a war against China and Russia.
I am no longer certain of the actual competency of America at the end of WWII. They had a tough time even with a depleted German army - the Russians had to open a new front just to support them. From the Russian viewpoint, the Allied assault on Europe was merely a diversionary act to make it easier for them to move on Berlin. As Martyanov indicates, America has never had to fight a real war defending its own territory and knows little of the strategy necessary to win a war - its generals don't know war and never have so they can't learn as the Russians have had to learn from their experiences. If the Americans are ever faced with combat with Russian troops, they will be annihilated because they do not understand war.
The Neocons are the Jews that brought down the empire, the same fate by the hands of the chosen people that every empire has suffered in 5,000 years of recorded history.
Here's the thing: it's very clear that TPTB are doing everything possible to crush the US (& allies) from within. Not only through severe dumbing-down since at least the early 1900's (Rockefeller "Board of Education,") and killing off so many with the jabs, and unrelenting fear porn + media addiction... but now also now whipping people into a "nuke 'em" mentality...
Doesn't it seem like they WANT global devastation? Who knows, maybe they do have off-planet safe houses as it were, or a much better tunnel/bunker system than anyone knows. Or maybe they plan to just de-corporate and in the very far future, when earth has healed, come back to the Garden.
I mean, this Khazarian mob has roots back to the bronze age (Babylonian Talmud) and likely back to Atlantis. It is a LONG-term effort. They don't think in terms of who's going to win this, or any, war. They've always supported both sides and then sat back to enjoy the carnage and spoils. I know that such ramblings won't sit well with many brilliant logical military analysts so feel free to skip to the next comment, if you've even made it this far.
But the KM are way more informed and aware and knowledgable and patient than their diaper-wearing clownish frontmen would indicate. Short of earth and her inhabitants spontaneously shifting up into a non-dual [not good/evil] dimension, it just doesn't seem practical to keep looking at the global situation in the same ways we're used to, as brilliant as they may be.
Oh stop it, the escalation is mainly noise, constant reiterations for public consumption of what is already happening variously reframed talked up and then down, yo yo style, and which is not stopping Russia advancing its own objectives.
It is most immediately directed at Ukrainians to keep them in the fight with fudged promises of further western interventions (the cavalry is coming, promise!) at least until after the US election. There is also the increasingly faint hope of stirring up some panic amongst Russia's allies to get them to push for a western favourable settlement before winters comes.
You can surely see this for yourself, so why are you trying to hype it all up?
Yep. True escalation is when one of the sides starting to inflict significantly more damage on enemy. Most of NATO's "escalations" are just bullshit of their propaganda like all western wunderwaffes. What they are doing now, they have been doing for a long time. There has been no significant increase in the damage they inflict on Russia. They simply attacked a few "more sensitive" (mostly in the public's perception) targets to make more noise out of it in the media.
I am curious what kind of behavior you view "doubling down" to be?
"Doubling down" is a gambling term. It is the behavior of the gambler who is behind and hopes to make up their losses quickly. It is a panic reaction to losing.
The West is definitely starting to feel its mortality and is afraid. Not Biden, of course, as he is a vegetable and vegetables don't feel fear, but have you looked at Blinken or Sullivan lately? There is definitely the look of desperation there.
Nobody should be afraid of a fascist like Putin. Put your foot down, dictators don't understand diplomacy, they use it as weakness, which is exactly why he invaded Ukraine. Dictators only understands strength.
Your conclusions about the losses of both sides are clearly overestimated. But I won't argue.
For some reason, the most interesting thing from this Putin interview is being overlooked in the West. The main thing is that Putin said that the yield of Russian tactical nuclear warheads is 70-75 kilotons. Until yesterday, it was believed that tactical nuclear weapons have a much lower yield - 2, 5, 10 kilotons. New data changes everything. The number of Russian nuclear warheads is several thousand.
There is no exact information about the current state of Russian tactical nuclear weapons arsenals. There are only various estimates and forecasts, which may differ from actual indicators both up and down. For example, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) suggests that the Russian armed forces have almost 6 thousand tactical nuclear weapons.
Nobody will ever use nukes as you know how and when it starts but not how and when ends.And escalation in nuclear war is very rapid(no choice), no attrition here.
Very good analysis here from Dr Doctorow, he knows VVP and Russia deep state very well, american living both in Brussels like(J Baud) but 6 months in Petersburg as well speaks perfect RU, lived in Moscow...kremlinologue probably the last one.
Putin is bluffing on deliveries of weapons here and there to nato ennemies, but no nuke will ever be used, but he sees real escalation after something crazy from nato inside Russia as: 1) kiev fully destroyed as a starter with time given for civilian to leave 2) striking airfield of nato in Poland 3) striking nato military assets + weapons factory in UK FRANCE Germany..
Prof. Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: Are Russian Threats Serious?
Tell Gilbert Doctorow he is very wrong. Moreover, very much so. Remind him of the Russian law: if in the first act of the play there is a gun hanging on the wall, then in the third act it will definitely go off.
Russia is spending billions of rubles on nuclear weapons. This is not done so that a respected professor can laugh in his office and write that “Putin is bluffing.”
Did you watch the interview? I've seen several interviews with him. I will put his knowledge up against yours and give you one hundred to one odds... Chip
I watched his interview. I even know where he got all this information from. This is one of the real options, but the respected Gilbert Doctorow does not feel the scale.
Multiply it by 10, at bare minimum. I am not even joking. 6k is way way low number. Most pieces of equipment, from artillery shell to missile have it's nuclear variant.
I don't know who was thinking that the yield of Russian tactical nukes are just 2-10 kilotons. It is the yield of 152-203mm nuclear artillery shells. It is very unlikely that Russia would explode nuke so close to its own soldiers. I'm not even sure that they are still in service in Russia at all. In the context of nuclear weapons, "tactical" refers more to range rather than power. In principle, any nuclear weapon with a range of up to 500 km can be called tactical. And usually nuclear warheads for Russian missiles of this range have a yield of up to 100 kilotons.
No doubt the 18yo draft is a done deal. By the end of the war Ukraine will be the biggest failed state in history. I guess that is the plan. Some juicy real estate going cheap. Europe bled out economically and possibly militarily.
The US sees itself the big winner in all this. It seems like they keep doubling their bets hoping to win eventually. I doubt China will stand aside if the balance tilts towards the US.
It is the MORAL, ETHICAL and RIGHTIOUS ACTION to smack down once and for all the Zio/Globo/Homo BORG.
Back Street, Vanguard, Black Rock will go bankrupt after putting too much over confidence in buying up Ukraine.
The exiled Ukies will come back as Ukraine becomes more stabilized. Even though many Ukie soldiers got annihilated by Russia they would rather be governed by an entity that actually cares about them!
All Russia wants in the end is that the Ukies unquestionably accept responsibility for the past 10+ years and I bet that those returnees will have much loyalty towards Russia as long as they bear that responsibility.
> “just the losses we can see (confirm) on the battlefield”
And now we can get into the nitty-gritty. I ADORE your analysis of the numbers and your reconstruction of both the casualties and of "mobilization". Unfortunately, you'll need to redo it because of this little quote from Putin that just ruined all your hard work. xD Those 50k he mentioned, those are just corpses RuAF can physically SEE. But they keep smashing stuff behind the lines, in the rear. How many dead are in there? Maybe another 50k?
An analyst's work is never done. xD Good work, I'll try to mobilize some money for a few months of a paid subscription.
Also, it is not the first time when Putin speaks about casualty ratio between Russia and Ukraine. In previous Putin's statements highest ratio was up to 10 to 1. I think this time he was talking about numbers from recent months or even about just last month, when Kharkov "offensive" started. So, probably extrapolation of that numbers to entire war could be pretty incorrect.
Millions ukies left the country(12-14 M) mainly in 2022.Those I see here in my Country(not so many in fact) are only young (18-35), then children and women, very very little above 40 years, almost zero on pension age. I believe the potential of mobilization for 18-25 ukies in 404 if far smaller than you believe it is.
You are right, the version of S's post published in Russian is much more rabble rousingly raucous in a Tolstoyan dimension than this rather mean spirited and subdued babble he is allowed to publish in the West
Such are the sanctions imposed - and you are right to say they bite back against the sanctioners and to their misfortune and disgrace
Hope is at hand - there are certain Arctic exclusionary clauses and privileges being opened up this semester which ....well S will have to be allowed to announce these, but they are on the level of the Joint Declaration, watch this space
General Moron's twin has arrived.
"Ukraine" is not holding anything FFS. It's NATO. The combined West. Don't you get that? They are holding because Russia is playing their game, and wants to demilitarise Ukraine and, to some degree, NATO.
If this was a real war, you think it would play out like this? Come on, you are just making yourself look silly here.
Are you aving a giraffe mate, if Ukraine was a sovereign country led by a government that truly cared for its citizens' lives, they would have sought a peace deal within months of the conflict's onset. Oh wait, but were contemptuously overruled by their overlords, told to fight too the last Ukrainian. As a result, it is celebrated by those narcissistic evil individuals as a small price for the US government to bear. The same individuals now plan to further influence an unpopular reduction of the mobilization age to 18 years, and then remove their tyrant Elensky to bear the blame for such destructive legislation to keep the conflict going. This is not about holding, this is about the west caring nothing about Ukraine, just as long as it can weaken Russia.
"if Ukraine was a sovereign country led by a government that truly cared for its citizens' lives" there would not have been election witnesses in 2004, a Maidan violent coup, no MH-17 shoot down, no Debaltsovo, NO ELENSKY!
And yet the combined resources of globohomo can’t kick Russia out of Ukraine, as Russia makes progress every single day. So there’s that.
This is for the ignorant doomers, and malicious trolls, the imbeciles that want Russia to nuke Euro cities, here is VVP explaining it simply straight from the SPIEF conference:
"It is possible to speed up the solution of the tasks of a special operation, but only at the cost of increased losses, and the lives of the Russian military are more important"
Your words can not hide your ignorance
Good points - read any of the transcripts of VVP's meeting in Russia in Moscow and in the provinces and his command of every aspect of society and life in his country is extraordinary
Many are reproduced at the Kremlin website and many are transcribed and into English by Karl Sanchez at https://karlof1.substack.com/
The MSC 2007 is a masterpiece - https://is.muni.cz/th/xlghl/DP_Fillinger_Speeches.pdf
Very true. What the West especially hates about such interviews is how it's completely obvious that there are no Western "leaders" who come close to Putin's intellect and competence. None of them could sit down and discuss such complex topics at such length without it being clear to every listener that they don't have anywhere near Putin's competence.
I don't think Joe Biden would last 15 minutes.
He is “sui generis” among world leaders—one can get a strong sense of this without understanding Russian.
Agree. I was ”lost” when Oliver Stone interviewed Putin. What a man!
The Iranian missiles the Houthis have are already more than sufficient.
Putin said this in order to wash his hands of his obligation to do something about the NATO attacks -- "Look, we will take action".
When, where, and what effects it will have? That's unspecified.
But he has promised to take action, that's what matters from a PR perspective.
The very real physical losses NATO weapons are inflicting do not matter.
They won't do anything.
The proper response to NATO encroaching on Russia should have been having Russian missile frigates carrying hypersonic nukes stationed 40-50 miles away from the coast all around the US, to be constantly rotated but always there.
But can't hurt dear partners' feelings like that...
Why? The nuclear strategic threat is always present. Moving launch sites to 50km proximity simply makes the launch site easier to observe and hit.
You have no clue what you are talking about.
Look up missile flight times and then detection and decision response times.
NATO in Ukraine makes a decapitating+disarming strike on Russia possible. NATO in Finland too, but for some reason the Kremlin decided to sit on its hands on that issue instead of neutralizing the threat preemptively.
You have to counter that with similarly short flight times with respect to the enemy's critical systems.
It isn't the availability of weapons, it's the willingness to use them.
Ansar Allah actually doesn't even need Russian weapons. They already had everything it needed to send every NATO vessel in a rather large radius to the bottom of the sea, from the Iranians.
The only thing that increase their capabilities would be Kalibr-M missiles, as those have 4,500 km range (remember - it has to be ground launched, as they have no planes and submarines). They can hit all the way to northern Italy with that.
But then it is a matter of having the balls to actually use the weapons.
Even the Houthis have been very careful not to sink ships, only to damage them.
And unlike Putin, who is extremely afraid to go after those who are barely even hiding behind Ukraine at this point, such attacks will not be taken to come from the Ansar Allah by the West.
Similarly, Syria has been bombed by the Israelis for years. The Russians have S-300s and S-400s there, but have not shot down a single Israeli plane. Too afraid. Syria could have used some Tornado-S and Iskanders to destroy the US bases. But again, everyone was too afraid to do it.
Until that changes, it really doesn't matter who the weapons have been given to.
Well, realistically speaking according to Putin it's 50k total losses per month at 50/50 ratio. That means 25,000 "irrecoverable". But irrecoverable can be further broken down into KIA, MIA, maimed, POW, etc. So out of that 25,000 irrecoverable only half, for instance, might be actually total KIA, with the other half losing limbs, being captured, etc. Thus it could be as low as 12,000 actual dead per month for AFU, which would be about 400 per day.
A war like this I would expect a lot of what used to be called “shell shock” injuries affecting otherwise healthy bodies.
A while ago, I read (in some UA and Russian channels) about an extraordinarily high rate of non combat losses in the Ukrainian forces, namely north of 30% of the UA armed forces. Those losses include accidents (including deadly substance abuse from alcohol to drugs), suicides, violence among troops, diseases.
The comparable losses we know from the USSR, by the book of Krivosheyev "Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century, London/Mechanicksburg PA 1993, are between 12 and 18%, from WWII to Afghanistan, so that is an outstanding figure. Those figures have to be added to the overall losses, also the unknown toll of the daily raids in the Ukrainian rear.
Your source is some random unnamed "channels" and you take it as truth? Are you retarded? LMAO
Taking anything Putin says as truth is a sign of severe mental illness. Go lobotomize it out of yourself
Definitely NOT first...
https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf
Just leaving this here for comparison. The smell is off on the presented numbers. Admittedly, the OIF/OEF numbers are lacking a category of 'WIA permanently out of action' or somesuch to be directly comparable to what you are doing.
Thx interesting chart. Can you specify what you are saying though? If you are implying the KIA to WIA is too high in the SMO as compared to U.S. KIA:WIA it's likely because U.S. wars were very low intensity with the opposing side not having much weaponry that can inflict serious grievous and lethal injuries. That means it's understandable that a far higher percentage of casualties would be light treatable wounds.
In the Ukrainian war on the other hand a far greater proportion of wounds are lethal because both sides are slinging ungodly amounts of heavy firepower the likes of which was never witnessed in any of the U.S. conflicts.
I don't think i'm aware of a war where the kia/wia ratio was above 50% since the 19th century.
For instance: some WWI stats: https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/reperes112018.pdf
I'm also conscious that while some nastier weapons are in use in Ukraine, people still die from the same old same old, exploding vehicles, cooked off explosives, etc. The *scale* is larger but the death is just as real. As i've related in the past, getting blown up by an IED composed of a few 152mm shells is no joke either. Hamburger is made whether the shell is fired or exploded underneath you.
Anyway to be completely clear, there are unquestionably a lot of wounded. Many of them return to service after a short (or no) convalescence, but most WIA figures don't differentiate between that person and someone with a traumatic brain injury, for instance.
WWI was an attrition war even more than now in 404. Very localized North of France + Belgium.
You sound unfamiliar with the Eastern and Italian fronts. They were horrific in their own right. Worth a look up. The attrition was just as bad there, though the trench networks might not have been as complex.
I would have thought that was obvious…
The whole article is retarded. Why would he take Putins numbers at face value at all? It is impossible Ukraine to have 1 million casualties, that would be over 10,000 per month, this would be more than their entire defenses in some areas, yet Russia doesn't move an inch. What a stupid fucking article lmao
Russia's losses are 300,000+ irrecoverable while Ukraines is around 150,000
I don't believe that either. I'll leave body counts for historians. Ukraine is losing, that much is clear. Even if your numbers were accurate, Ukraine has far fewer people to lose.
LLM-derived breakdowns and summaries for this post by Simplicius The Thinker:
https://open.substack.com/pub/complexiathesinker/p/llm-over-putin-gives-first-official
The problem is that the West isn't afraid. Their response to Russian tactical nuclear exercises, for instance, was to double down with escalation.
They smell blood.
I said nothing of the MSM. I spoke of NATO, which is doing more than just barking.
NATO is not barking but biting.
If you call shells falling on Russian territory, missiles hitting Russian planes and radar installations, and NATO corridors for intervention just "barking", well, keep telling yourself that.
crap comment slang NATO is toothless
...more than it can chew and certainly stomach. More like lapdog nipping or mosquito-biting.
You keep on selling CIA one liners - NATO is doing what more than barking - NATO is doing very close to nothing, that which is being destroyed in Ukraine
Go home dumbo gringo
The only thing they smell is the 'accident' in their own nappies.
Keep telling yourself that. They don't act like people in a panic. Quite the opposite.
More crap one liners from the CIA - go home gringo
Feral
they have yet to accept defeat, meaning, US & West have not yet conceded victory to Russia. And they will definitely not concede until November 2024, US elections.
War is being fought
A. on battlefield (Russia is undoubtedly winning)
B. through mobilization, force generating
C. economy (Russia undoubtedly surviving sanctions, and having BRICS and China's support = winning)
In B. force generating, it is of extreme importance to keep pretence Ukrainians believe in final victory, this is done by media war, waged in Ukraine in Europe and US.
Since the real results from real battlefield are depressing, in media war, escalation is the only way to keep the pretence of fighting spirit.
The core is made of extreme nationalists that believe in fighting RUssia and are in best brigades, in secrete service, and control political organizations and media, and absolutely corrupt guys who are pretending to be nationalists but primarily obey grab as much and as long as you can rule.
Extremists are believers, by definition. Western pundits, military commentators, strategists, Phillips O Brian, Ben Hodges, Michael McFaul, do it for money, it is their job, they "believed" in victory in Afghanistan, Iraq, until withdrawal was announced.
Corruption, pouring billions into Ukraine, means efforts to keep army fighting are well payed, also corruption is eating from inside,
Bad news from the battlefield would cause internal tensions rise. Escalation covers that up. Forced mobilizaton produces weak force, weak force suffers greater casualties, greater casualties erode support for war, greater erosion makes mobilization - force generation more difficult, weaker force means losing ground on battlefield.
Is is a vicious cycle that US is doing its best to prop up until elections, still not really wanting NATO RUssia war.
Advancement of European forces into Ukraine is potentially a positive news for Russia.
^This, America making Russia an ally would have been so much better, and might have helped to reduce China's ambitions.
Instead America will now face an combined Eastern enemy they can not defeat.
It beggars belief that, if what people here say were true, that nobody in the Champs d'Elyssee can take Macron aside and tell him to stop letting his mouth write checks that his ass cannot cash.
Spell the road's name right, gringo dumbo
Stop it with the ynaka slang
Go Home
They are psychopaths.
Political Ponerology
Ridiculous cope.
Who is hitting who, increasingly deeper and deeper, while not being hit in return?
That's what it boils down to.
Putin started this war in order to not have to one day fight NATO at his border. Not in order to defend Russians in Ukraine, to stop the nazification of the country, to prevent its de-Russification, etc. etc. If it was about those things, the war would have started 20 years ago. No, it was only when the prospect of having NATO missiles on the border was imminent that he launched the war.
Well, guess what, NATO missiles are now being fired into Russia from right at the border.
And no Russian missiles are flying into NATO territory.
Who is winning then?
This isn't 1941 when in retrospect the Germans were already losing in October-November despite pushing towards Moscow. Because they were being exhausted in the process. There is zero attrition of NATO strategic assets at the moment while the Russian ones are under daily attack.
Those S-300s and S-400s being smoked in Belgorod and Kursk are supposed to guard against NATO air raids from a western direction. And that's only one small example.
Russia seems to fight it's war like I do "arguing with idiots on the internet" (Disclaimer: I've not noticed any idiots here, I'm talking about elsewhere..)
I don't react to insults or denigration until I am ready to respond. I don't always fight the opponent as they would wish to be fought, I just write what needs to be written when it needs to be done, and do my best to be right and proportionate about it.
Yeah, problem is it isn't the internet but real life.
If you are in a real physical fight and approach it that way, there is a good chance you end up dead.
The lines beyond which kinetic response was not just warranted, but absolutely mandatory, were crossed a very long time ago.
Three main issues now:
1) Lack of protection of the Russian civilian population
2) Attacks on key strategic systems, which cannot be allowed to continue, otherwise real degradation of vital capabilities is imminent
3) The effect the indifference of leadership has on internal moral and cohesion. The Prigozhin situation was a warning.
No, the Russian people will not rise up against Putin because they want the McDonalds and Starbucks logos back.
But they may rise against indifferent leadership that is allowing them to be bombed daily without responding while sitting on the most powerful arsenal in the world. The mood right now in Belgorod, Kursk, Crimea, Rostov, Krasnodar, etc., is not exactly positive.
Or if the people don't rise up, the military will. Because the military is much more directly under fire while being forbidden from protecting itself beyond using AD. How long will it continue to take this without tensions boiling over?
Case in point - the other day Russian Telegram started posting messages about how the green light had been given to neutralize the RQ-4Bs over the Black Sea. What happened then?
The next day FORTE12 goes on its usual mission. Then weird stuff starts to happen - it pops on and off the radars, eventually it went to Romania (where it never goes normally), but then it returned and circled over the eastern Black Sea for a long time. Then the next day FORTE14 came and it completed an interrupted mission.
So likely some jamming was applied, but then the operators turned FORTE12 back to safe territory, fixed the issue, then it returned. The next day the other drone did a full mission.
What was the net result? A Black Sea Fleet tugboat was sunk near Sevastopol, some ATACMS hit in Lugansk, refinery was set on fire in Novoshakhtinsk, etc.
Meanwhile no RQ-4Bs were sent to the bottom of the Black Sea, i.e. what is the net NATO vs. Russia score for those two days?
If that is all the "response to provocations" Putin can muster, you can expect mutiny eventually.
Either way, the West is winning:
1) Russians are dying
2) Russian infrastructure is being destroyed. Including by the Russians themselves, every time they strike TPPs and HPPs in Ukraine (they built those, and will have to rebuild them)
3) Russian strategic systems are being destroyed
4) Discontent against Putin for his herbivorous policies is rising.
Although I'm reluctant to feed trolls, I would like to point out a couple of things here: This is a - global - conflict. What happens in Ukraine is merely the component that is most visible in mainstream media. What happens in Africa, Asia, economically and diplomatically is comparatively of much more profound importance than a few square kilometers or a handful of missile strikes. The empire is coming down, and that takes precedence in any strategic discussion. Midwifing a new multipolar world is a task of a different order of magnitude compared to "protecting red lines in Belgorod". Let's keep our eyes on the ball...
>The empire is coming down
I see the empire expanding, not coming down.
And I also see it firing TBMs into Russia, with Russia only whining about it, but not responding.
Does that look like an empire "coming down"?
Also, this not very smart Internet strategist doesn't understand the scale of Russia, Russian resources and assets. Compared to that, damage that Ukraine/NATO inflicted on Russia is still insignificant. Russian strategic capabilities still on the same level since Russian nuclear triad suffered near zero damage. And overwhelming majority of Russian territory and population still barely touched by the war.
Write down, "why I hate Russians". 10 pages double spaced.
"There is zero attrition of NATO strategic assets at the moment while the Russian ones are under daily attack."
We in the west should be eternally grateful that the Russian high command has been exceedingly restrained. But, yes, we are at an inflection point and Russia is upping its game. For starters, it's coming close to crashing the Electric power grid in Ukraine. Also, the Kremlin is titrating larger numbers of trained forces into the five major battlefronts and opportunistically advancing across key supply roads soon leading to the collapse of major strongholds across the whole front line. The Sumy region is about to be opened up pretty quickly as well.
Now Russia is sending boatloads of weaponry to the Americas which will, in turn, provoke a severe crisis in the USA during an election year. Russia will be pouring gasoline on other hotspots in the Middle East and more open alliance with the Chinese North Koreans.
Putin is also alerting the EU American public that tactical nuclear weapons are on the table.
We better hope these efforts have a big payoff. Because otherwise the next level of escalation is going to be very very unpleasant for NATO member states on both sides of the Atlantic.
Only if you don’t count doctrine as a strategic asset. The only time NATO doctrine worked was Kharkov in ‘22. The great “counter offensive” wasn’t designed n Kiev. Which raises the question of whether sending munitions to Ukraine faster than they’re produced is effective doctrine.
You assume that NATO would fair better than the VSU. It would cause more damage to Russia; it wouldn’t fair any better than Ukraine and would likely fair worse. If several Chinese divisions showed up it would fair far worse. Or even if China decided it was time to take Taiwan with NATO even more directly engaged with Russia.
NATO is the US and a bunch of satrapies with small, ineffective militaries. Turkiye’s not going to fight Russia. Poland’s military might is mostly theoretical and contracted but not delivered. NATO desperately needs Ukraine to defeat Russia in some way. That’s why they’re acting desperately.
Lol….I don’t know how your keep coming up with stuff like this, but I appreciate the chuckle I get reading your comments.
The fact that NATO is weaker and Russia, and China and Iran likely, are stronger militarily, economically and geopolitically aught to create much cognitive dissonance for you, smart guy.
there was never any prospect of NATO missiles in Ukraine. Putin started this war in 2014 because having a Democratic country on his borders in itself is a threat to his regime. The biggest country for Russians to immigrate to at the time was Ukraine, and if Ukraine ended up looking like Poland, then prospects would be even better. The biggest threat to a dictator is the prospect of a better life for the people. All dictatorships due when opportunity for a better life becomes clear
Who cares. He who is not afraid will die. In Ukraine they were not afraid of Russia at all and laughed a lot. There are many good comedians in Kyiv. Now the respected blog author has counted millions of corpses
Nobody in Kiev cares. Hell, Putin cares more about Ukraine and Ukrainians than anyone in Washington, Brussels or Kiev.
Well said, and these idiots can't help shooting themselves in the foot with their own desperate arguments.
Currently life is much safer in Kiev, and not just Kiev, every other major city under Ukrainian control other than perhaps Kharkov, than it is in Belgorod.
In Kiev they walk around freely. have large concerts, etc. And even in Kharkov strikes are strictly on military targets. so it's mostly safe for regular people.
Meanwhile in Belgorod they are afraid to go out on the street because of the constant threat of shelling, mass gatherings have not been possible since the start of the year, etc. And nobody in Moscow can be bothered to even provide a commitment to, let alone a timeline for making this stop.
Such a remarkable success for Putinism.
Worse, Putin the other week came out and said "we do not intend to take Kharkov".
What a way to lead the country...
P.S. Whether they were maneuvered into it on purpose or not, the Ukrainians immediately mobilized the resources to counter around Kharkov.
The contrast with the herbivorous behavior of the Kremlin could not be more stark.
On such issues yes, you do not to state them.
Zelensky has been a much better wartime leader than Putin.
He is out there every evening, defining very clear goals, and commenting on current events.
What is Putin doing?
-- Defining clear goals? Negative. Nobody knows what the goals are
-- Lifting the nation's spirit daily in the face of hardships? Negative. It's as if there is no war going on, in fact that appears to be the primary goal behind how the war is fought -- to maintain normalcy. All the way to mushroom clouds over Moscow if needed...
"Zelensky has been a much better wartime leader than Putin."
Ha, that there shows this moron's idiocy. Zelensky is a puppet, not a leader. FFS such a simple statement that shows us a window in to your ignorant little mind.
I would STFU if I was you. Actually I'd slit my wrists.
"Zelensky has been a much better wartime leader than Putin"
You have a mental problem and have zero credibility.
Now you're just being stupid. He has very clearly stated the goals for THREE YEARS DUMBASS!!!
Your hypocrisy is beyond ridiculous.
"Zelensky has been a much better wartime leader than Putin"
Yup. The coke head faggot giving tribute to any Collective Waste War Prostitute, giving head to particular leaders, demonizng his citizens.
Great Leader.
Maybe you are fooling yourself, but not anyone else. They are dancing in the Kiev clubs only because the Russians are allowing it.
You completely fail to understand what the problem is.
Let them dance in Kiev, no issue with that. The last thing Putin should be doing is pointless terror bombing.
But another thing he should absolutely not be letting happen is terror bombing on Russian territory. And he cannot be bothered to even acknowledge it unless directly asked, let alone doing something meaningful about it.
We have been over this previously:
This is a war against Russia as aa whole launched by Western elites using Ukrainian elites as middle men and Ukrainian cannon fodder on the front lines.
If you are the Russian leadership and you are presented with this situation, which of these three groups do you go after in order to resolve the problem?
Well, according to Putin and his sycophants, of course you go after the cannon fodder while leaving those actually responsible for the war completely untouched. That is the sound and logical thing to do. Who could possibly argue otherwise...
In order to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, you have to go after the cannon fodder - that is what attrition is all about. You can go for the head but what will that accomplish - another head will replace it. You can go for the NATO head but then you are faced with WWIII - do you really want this? No, you go for the cannon fodder to destroy the head's capability of waging war. Then you go for the head.
In a war of attrition it would be folly to take the bait for escalation. The response has to be assymetric. For example, Russia could start donating heavy weapons and manpads to the Cartel, or short range missiles to Islamic cells operating in the US or UK, cruise missile to the Houthis to cause price inflation as shipping lanes close, etc, etc. The social and economic upheaval this could cause would very likely have Zelensky on the carpet in short order. In fact, I would be surprised if NATO isn't doing its best to reign him already.
"You completely fail to understand what the problem is."
You don't really seem to understand anything, much less what the problem is, what the smo is really about, why nato can't possibly win, or anything related to military strategy.
Herbivorous behavior - how clever! The West's carnivorous behavior is eating away at itself.
"Biting more than it can chew" - certainly more than it will be able to stomach.
It's the standard Russian term. Not my invention.
They "smell" nothing of the sort; they are Neocons and they always double down. They never admit they are wrong or that their schemes of ongoing global domination are failing. Putin is aware of this and no doubt expected it.
If the Neocons are stupid enough to get into a war in Europe with Russia, they will lose that war. The same applies if they start a war with China. America is a hollow shell of what it was at the end of World War 2. That America is long gone, what exists now does not have the industrial base or the competence to win a war against China and Russia.
I am no longer certain of the actual competency of America at the end of WWII. They had a tough time even with a depleted German army - the Russians had to open a new front just to support them. From the Russian viewpoint, the Allied assault on Europe was merely a diversionary act to make it easier for them to move on Berlin. As Martyanov indicates, America has never had to fight a real war defending its own territory and knows little of the strategy necessary to win a war - its generals don't know war and never have so they can't learn as the Russians have had to learn from their experiences. If the Americans are ever faced with combat with Russian troops, they will be annihilated because they do not understand war.
So what do you know that NATO staff does not? They don't seem to share your view.
Which bathroom to use for one.
That is the most cogent answer for this commenter.
If he knows ethics, decency and capability, there's 3.
The Neocons are the Jews that brought down the empire, the same fate by the hands of the chosen people that every empire has suffered in 5,000 years of recorded history.
Except that they're fake Jews doing the usual false-flag technique of pretending to be someone they're not, so as to escape blame & retaliation, yes.
Here's the thing: it's very clear that TPTB are doing everything possible to crush the US (& allies) from within. Not only through severe dumbing-down since at least the early 1900's (Rockefeller "Board of Education,") and killing off so many with the jabs, and unrelenting fear porn + media addiction... but now also now whipping people into a "nuke 'em" mentality...
Doesn't it seem like they WANT global devastation? Who knows, maybe they do have off-planet safe houses as it were, or a much better tunnel/bunker system than anyone knows. Or maybe they plan to just de-corporate and in the very far future, when earth has healed, come back to the Garden.
I mean, this Khazarian mob has roots back to the bronze age (Babylonian Talmud) and likely back to Atlantis. It is a LONG-term effort. They don't think in terms of who's going to win this, or any, war. They've always supported both sides and then sat back to enjoy the carnage and spoils. I know that such ramblings won't sit well with many brilliant logical military analysts so feel free to skip to the next comment, if you've even made it this far.
But the KM are way more informed and aware and knowledgable and patient than their diaper-wearing clownish frontmen would indicate. Short of earth and her inhabitants spontaneously shifting up into a non-dual [not good/evil] dimension, it just doesn't seem practical to keep looking at the global situation in the same ways we're used to, as brilliant as they may be.
After 32 years as a US government analyst, my own sense is that they are scared shitless.
Based on what? For that matter, look at markets for US government debt and US dollars.
Large, liquid and sophisticated markets and they don't seem concerned at all.
A life of unreality is self-destructive.
The unreality is that money is the most important thing to humanity.
Oh stop it, the escalation is mainly noise, constant reiterations for public consumption of what is already happening variously reframed talked up and then down, yo yo style, and which is not stopping Russia advancing its own objectives.
It is most immediately directed at Ukrainians to keep them in the fight with fudged promises of further western interventions (the cavalry is coming, promise!) at least until after the US election. There is also the increasingly faint hope of stirring up some panic amongst Russia's allies to get them to push for a western favourable settlement before winters comes.
You can surely see this for yourself, so why are you trying to hype it all up?
You always, seems to me, elevate already great forums whenever and wherever you appear. Like the Belle of the Ball!
Yep. True escalation is when one of the sides starting to inflict significantly more damage on enemy. Most of NATO's "escalations" are just bullshit of their propaganda like all western wunderwaffes. What they are doing now, they have been doing for a long time. There has been no significant increase in the damage they inflict on Russia. They simply attacked a few "more sensitive" (mostly in the public's perception) targets to make more noise out of it in the media.
Well, to scale knowing that the end result is going to be disastrous is effectively abject class fear ..
I am curious what kind of behavior you view "doubling down" to be?
"Doubling down" is a gambling term. It is the behavior of the gambler who is behind and hopes to make up their losses quickly. It is a panic reaction to losing.
The West is definitely starting to feel its mortality and is afraid. Not Biden, of course, as he is a vegetable and vegetables don't feel fear, but have you looked at Blinken or Sullivan lately? There is definitely the look of desperation there.
YES. Stoltenberg has had that look forever.
Nobody should be afraid of a fascist like Putin. Put your foot down, dictators don't understand diplomacy, they use it as weakness, which is exactly why he invaded Ukraine. Dictators only understands strength.
Your conclusions about the losses of both sides are clearly overestimated. But I won't argue.
For some reason, the most interesting thing from this Putin interview is being overlooked in the West. The main thing is that Putin said that the yield of Russian tactical nuclear warheads is 70-75 kilotons. Until yesterday, it was believed that tactical nuclear weapons have a much lower yield - 2, 5, 10 kilotons. New data changes everything. The number of Russian nuclear warheads is several thousand.
There is no exact information about the current state of Russian tactical nuclear weapons arsenals. There are only various estimates and forecasts, which may differ from actual indicators both up and down. For example, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) suggests that the Russian armed forces have almost 6 thousand tactical nuclear weapons.
Nobody will ever use nukes as you know how and when it starts but not how and when ends.And escalation in nuclear war is very rapid(no choice), no attrition here.
Very good analysis here from Dr Doctorow, he knows VVP and Russia deep state very well, american living both in Brussels like(J Baud) but 6 months in Petersburg as well speaks perfect RU, lived in Moscow...kremlinologue probably the last one.
Putin is bluffing on deliveries of weapons here and there to nato ennemies, but no nuke will ever be used, but he sees real escalation after something crazy from nato inside Russia as: 1) kiev fully destroyed as a starter with time given for civilian to leave 2) striking airfield of nato in Poland 3) striking nato military assets + weapons factory in UK FRANCE Germany..
Prof. Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: Are Russian Threats Serious?
https://www.youtube.com/live/5euAf7K0c50?si=pSPI_gNrxfn_-LwL
Tell Gilbert Doctorow he is very wrong. Moreover, very much so. Remind him of the Russian law: if in the first act of the play there is a gun hanging on the wall, then in the third act it will definitely go off.
Russia is spending billions of rubles on nuclear weapons. This is not done so that a respected professor can laugh in his office and write that “Putin is bluffing.”
Did you watch the interview? I've seen several interviews with him. I will put his knowledge up against yours and give you one hundred to one odds... Chip
I watched his interview. I even know where he got all this information from. This is one of the real options, but the respected Gilbert Doctorow does not feel the scale.
Only suicidal psychopaths would attack Russia. That said, the entire Western political class appears to be comprised of suicidal psychopaths.
BOOM
> 6 thousand tactical nuclear weapons.
Multiply it by 10, at bare minimum. I am not even joking. 6k is way way low number. Most pieces of equipment, from artillery shell to missile have it's nuclear variant.
I don't know who was thinking that the yield of Russian tactical nukes are just 2-10 kilotons. It is the yield of 152-203mm nuclear artillery shells. It is very unlikely that Russia would explode nuke so close to its own soldiers. I'm not even sure that they are still in service in Russia at all. In the context of nuclear weapons, "tactical" refers more to range rather than power. In principle, any nuclear weapon with a range of up to 500 km can be called tactical. And usually nuclear warheads for Russian missiles of this range have a yield of up to 100 kilotons.
Wow, that's a lot of dead!
No doubt the 18yo draft is a done deal. By the end of the war Ukraine will be the biggest failed state in history. I guess that is the plan. Some juicy real estate going cheap. Europe bled out economically and possibly militarily.
The US sees itself the big winner in all this. It seems like they keep doubling their bets hoping to win eventually. I doubt China will stand aside if the balance tilts towards the US.
Russia will take all of Ukraine.
It is the MORAL, ETHICAL and RIGHTIOUS ACTION to smack down once and for all the Zio/Globo/Homo BORG.
Back Street, Vanguard, Black Rock will go bankrupt after putting too much over confidence in buying up Ukraine.
The exiled Ukies will come back as Ukraine becomes more stabilized. Even though many Ukie soldiers got annihilated by Russia they would rather be governed by an entity that actually cares about them!
All Russia wants in the end is that the Ukies unquestionably accept responsibility for the past 10+ years and I bet that those returnees will have much loyalty towards Russia as long as they bear that responsibility.
EXACTLY!
I'm a Canadian expat that was living in Ukraine when the war started in 2022.
I stuck around for a few months, but left when wrong think became to dangerous.
I agree with your view Russia will take full control(excepting possibly the Polish border region).
I also agree many Ukrainians will return once Russia is in charge and safety is assured.
I further believe Ukraine(soon to be Novorossiya) has a great future.
All debts to the "west" will be renounced- making the territory effectively debt free- thus able to fund rebuilding & modernization.
Russia & China will finance & manage this.
Plus the entire Ukrainian oligarch cabal will be gone.
As will all the corrupted Ukrainian officials, politicians and government agencies & departments.
I think Novorossiya(former Ukraine) has a really great future.
Russia will waltz into Lvov to indicate the end of the conflict and enjoy a hero's welcome.
Math = no bullshit = a good article. :)
> “just the losses we can see (confirm) on the battlefield”
And now we can get into the nitty-gritty. I ADORE your analysis of the numbers and your reconstruction of both the casualties and of "mobilization". Unfortunately, you'll need to redo it because of this little quote from Putin that just ruined all your hard work. xD Those 50k he mentioned, those are just corpses RuAF can physically SEE. But they keep smashing stuff behind the lines, in the rear. How many dead are in there? Maybe another 50k?
An analyst's work is never done. xD Good work, I'll try to mobilize some money for a few months of a paid subscription.
That's true. Technically he could be leaving the door open to much higher casualty disparities than 1:5 based on that one little statement.
Here's an example of how some people do it: https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/a-refresher-on-how-to-read-the-daily From memory, he found that his low-level estimate increases the KIA number by 75% above the official MOD number.
Hack is a blowhard and a fool. And a clot shot hero.
Hack is what he is, not his name. He is barely smarter than the potato in the whitehouse.
Smoothies (Andreii)says that missiles and drones attacks since feb 22 till today probably reaching at least 70-80K+ (kia and wia or mia).
Also, it is not the first time when Putin speaks about casualty ratio between Russia and Ukraine. In previous Putin's statements highest ratio was up to 10 to 1. I think this time he was talking about numbers from recent months or even about just last month, when Kharkov "offensive" started. So, probably extrapolation of that numbers to entire war could be pretty incorrect.
Millions ukies left the country(12-14 M) mainly in 2022.Those I see here in my Country(not so many in fact) are only young (18-35), then children and women, very very little above 40 years, almost zero on pension age. I believe the potential of mobilization for 18-25 ukies in 404 if far smaller than you believe it is.
The "Big Israel"....
The younger you are the faster you run. I hope they can swim well also.
Apparently they get their numbers from radio intercepts, so they don't need to see the bodies.
thanks simplicius.. much appreciated...
Those 54k Russian KIA are mostly Wagnerites and inmates.
They are still human lives. They have value.