Prigozhin has just fired off his most vitriolic condemnation of the Russian MOD yet, while displaying 30+ dead Wagner bodies he says are just today’s casualties.
RoloSlavskiy.substack.com is reporting that Shoigu has capitulated to Prigozhin's demands, and has promised to supply more ammo. It took seven hours for the Kremlin to come crawling to Prigozhin. Since it happened so quickly, this seems to rule out the "draw the AFU into an ambush" narrative.
But in addition to a simple & honest goal to requisition an abundant supply of shells from the MOD, Prigozhin is presumably trying to put pressure on Putin to pursue the war more aggressively, and to meet Western provocations (such as the drone attack on Putin's office.)
Rolo is also saying this morning, that the entire Zaporozhye region is being evacuated. It looks like the MOD is planning to abandon the area to the Ukrainians, and take up a new front line much closer to Melitopol. Rolo says he's offering a bet that the Ukrainians will be "sitting outside melitople in June." Would you take the other side of that bet? I wouldn't.
"in the end it is simple, the Ukrainians don't want to live under communist rule."
I guess that shows your bias. Russia left communism over 30 years ago - they are committed capitalists now.
It is not simply that Ukrainians want to to live under another system. It is the obvious fact that the USA executed a coup in Ukraine that purposefully brought Russia-hating Nazis into power with the intent to cause harm and destruction to Russia. This has nothing to do with Ukraine, and never has. The Ukrainians arre merely tools of the West to accomplish their colonial ends - to weaken Russia, remove its governing regime, cause economic chaos, Balkanise the country and ultimately exploit its resources. Yes, the Ukrainians are victims in this plot to some degree, but that is the price of dealing with the devil - Maidan was never about freedom and democracy - you need to understand that.
And you say none of this had to happen. I disagree. It has to happen in order to bring in a multi-polar world, free from hegemonic, colonialist powers. The West is disintegrating from within - Russia, China and Iran are helping. You need to keep a proper perspective when you moralise on this war.
Your humour compensates for your aggressiveness.... for the moment.... AFTER ALL IT IS ONLY NECESSARY CHATTER FOR A HIGHER PURPOSE ... BUT don't forget - don't get HIGH ON YOUR OWN SUPPLY though ... just saying!
"in the end it is simple, the Ukrainians don't want to live under communist rule." Thanks for making it 100% clear you have literally 0 understanding of what's happening in Ukraine. Opinion discarded.
Russia hasnt been Communist for over 30 years. Fascism and Nazism however is alive & well in Ukraine. At least 50% of Ukrainian citizens do not what to live in a fascist neo-nazi controlled country that's why the LDNR rose up in 2014.
Also congrats on being a paid subscriber I am too but that doesn't mean your comments are valid or should be given more weight.
I'm late on catching up to my commenters. I wanted to let you know that I value you as a subscriber and commenter, I don't know why my comment made you think different. I was merely reacting towards what I felt was a passive aggressive comment of me "showing my colors" or whatever it was you said. However, I later learned by your subsequent comments that that was mostly a misunderstanding.
With that said, I'm kind of new to substack also and to be honest, I could have sworn substack did have that feature you describe. I saw on some other people that paid subscribers had a special icon by their name which was the equivalent of the 'Twitter Blue' thing you mention. I'm going to have to look into that to see why some people have that and others don't.
Also, I never denied being a 'Russian sympathizer'. Where did you get the idea that I was pro-Ukraine or even neutral? I never once pretended to be so. Of course I stand with Russia as any sane person would against the Nazi tyranny of a CIA-controlled fake state like Ukraine. This is a no-brainer. Why would anyone possibly stand with Ukraine, a genocidal, tyrannical openly Nazi state whose national symbol is the Nazi Bandera?
Russian high command is responsible for strategy, and to date that strategy has had remarkable results pursuing a war minimizing casualties, both military and civilian whilst at the same time annihilating the Ukrainian military. Just because you don't agree with the way the war is being conducted, does not mean it is being conducted wrongly. As for the attack on the kremlin, Russia will respond when they develop a clearer understanding of who was behind it and how it was carried out. Such matters have enormous political implications, so Russia must be careful and not fly off the handle. War and retribution is about patience and studied determination, not just emotion.
"This has been said since the onset of the war in 2022. " - And it remains true.
Russia's failings? This is war. Mistakes are made. Things are not always predictable. Tactics must change accordingly, and perhaps even operational strategy. Russia, in spite of its mistakes, has done a remarkable job at executing this war. And again, above all, it must be remembered that this is a war of attrition, not of territory. You take lives and weaponry, then fall back, then take more lives and weaponry. Russia has done well in this. It is Ukraine and its allies that need to be concerned.
As your comment suggests you have taken "sides" already - everyone does what everyone does - but let me remind everyone that this is not a regional conflict - THIS IS BIBLICAL!
BTW - I HAVE PICKED MY SIDE AS WELL - PEACE OF GOD ALMIGHTY!
Well said Victor. Exactly on the money. The RF is conducting this SMO exceptionally well considering it is actually fighting the collective West and NATO. Ukraine is finished. Preghorzin needs to hand over to the RF Army in Bakhmut because I believe he is going a bit insane.
I avoid reading too many articles such as the above on low-level stuff like Prigozin's antics. It is simply distracting. And the articles or posts are inevitably accompanied by comments such as the above complaining about "redlines." Too many armchair generals who graduated from the Academy of Medal of Honor. People: This is NOT a video game!
I just do not see how anyone could come to the conclusion you have, knowing what we know about how Russia is conducting this war and the true scope of the fight. They cannot allow themselves to be baited into rash actions, they must stay focused on the task at hand. They are destroying the UKR military, which is the main goal of the SMO. These terrorist attacks are just pin pricks, PR stunts. What would you have them do? I believe Russian generals and commanders are the best in the world, so I trust them to do the right thing to achieve thir objectives.
Putin's ratings are around 80% - Russians are behind him and Russia will deal with this the way they see fit and in the timeframe they see fit.
The only one who will decide when Wagner withdraws is the Russian president and the high command of Russias armed forces. Wagner is dependent on and a part of Russias security structure. Russias policy has secured her the diplomatic support of the whole planet except western states, despite the fact that Russia is the aggressor in technical terms. This needs to be understood. Despite a real war with hundreds of thousands of soldiers taking part and the biggests sanctions packages in history Russia only lost a little more than 2% GDP last year. Therefore, a calm and thoughtful way of dealing with this is the only way to success. Crimea bridge and Kremlin, yes, looks bad, but nobody has actually died and the cost for Russia is negligible. But the Ukrainians succeeded in one thing, triggering an emotional response and taking hope from some people. I read the Russian Telegram channels amd some guys want to start a nuclear war because of this stupid fucking drone. It is highly irrational, this is not a video game. Keep your emotions in a safe.
"despite the fact that Russia is the aggressor in technical terms"
Well, that, of course, depends on whose perspective you take. Russia recognised the independence of the donbass Republics and afterward they asked Russia to help defend them against the Ukrainian hordes who were drastically increasing their shelling of civilian centres and gearing up for a major invasion of the Donbass within a few days which would, in all likelihood, have overwhelmed the Donbass. Russia accepted, realised what they would have to accomplish in order to defend these republics and thus began the SMO. So the question has to be asked - who invaded whom?
“These are tough people - light on words - strong on action.” At the end of the day this is just another western cultural meme, another Cold War stereotype. I’m in the U.K. and am friends with a Siberian (a judo player I kid you not) and guess what, he enjoys central heating as much as the worst of us!
Shoigu is a politician, or a military strategist, or both? I think he had an opportunity to use those resources to hit ammo and arms build ups. But this war is highly political and economic, and aligned with China they seem to be winning on the global front and the battlefield. But Russia has been very slow, up to now, to escalate, and they are fighting with far fewer men than expected leaving many in reserve. Maybe they are ramping up slower for China, so they give Ukraine an out. But now with regime change on the table, offensive and counter-offensive, and possibly Transnistria in play, things are going to heat up rapidly.
It’s beginning to peeve me how much of the war coverage has been focused on who has more ordinance. Surely there is still more to winning a war than who gets delivered the most shells and RC drones right?
Well, though you bring up a good point, I think the finer point of Prigozhin's own angle is that, he's not saying Wagner can't or won't win with the current munitions allotment, what he is trying to say (hard to fully understand due to poor translation) is that the losses would be "5 times less" if he received proper munition allotments. Even in his past, recent screed, he implied the same thing. He said Wagner will still win, will still take Bakhmut--no doubt about that--but that it will simply be more bloody for them if munitions are not supplied.
So sure, war is about more than just munitions, but Prigozhin's point is that the more munitions you have the less casualties you take.
Yes, I agree. I think he he might be saying that he probably has enough ammo to win, but in order to reduce casualties, he needs to have far more ammo in order to smother the Ukies artillery denying them the ability to return fire. On the other hand, I am not a military man.
This makes sense and it could be the feeling of being considered less of a priority by Russian Command because he is a contractor and not part of the organization. He on the other hand feels he's doing most of the fighting and his situation should be re-spected constantly. This is an upper management dispute, but it should have been kept from the enemy.
It could even be just an excuse because Wagner can't take Bakhmut until the 9th! But nothing justifies the videos! Nothing! It has to be punished. It should was hung on the dome of Parliament in the Kremlin to catch drones until the end of the conflict!
Firstly, I am not Russian nor am I in Russia and it is good to assume a different culture that makes any analysis very difficult. And in second place is the first war to track by seconds on the internet. Perfect insanity! Like believe that General Mizintsev was replaced at the head of logistics, and the next day he joined Wagner for self-recreation?! Which is not possible anywhere in the world! Only if he was expelled from the Army and even then the process would take years. Mizintsev was placed on Wagner by MOD! And today Kadirov came to ask the MOD to adjust the tactics of Wagner, without depending on artillery. Wagner's autonomy is zero! And Prigozhin is the spokesperson for this zero! But after 24 hours I'm inclined to attribute the theater to some burnout. He even wanted to exchange WW1 Maxim machine guns for shells?! Maybe the soldiers rotated during the meat grinder and he didn't. And I attribute as much guilty to him as to the weasel-faced reporter!
As there are many Russians who assure that it's all Prigozhin PR! I don't know and I don't like it because I'm used to the silence of Moscow. But Prigozhin is from St. Petersburg and may be trying Western PR before is going to rest. Many Russians say that Wagner has already finished the assault on Bakhmut! In Soledar the UKR also continued weeks after the fall. And the fall of Bakhmut has not yet been announced because Zelensky continues to send cannon fodder into a city he has already lost! Just to create an artificial perception that Bakhmut did not fall before the Victory Day! Because who sets the deadlines of Russian forces in the media and on the internet is Ukraine!😂Reznikov first assured that RU ultimatum was Feb 24th and now May 9th. Tomorrow we will see the Mi6 date for Kramatorsk when Wagner will return and Russia is already bombing hard! All PR and Reznikov BS as usual.
I get what you are saying. And you are right. Look at the Viet Nam War, where the US literally "had everything," but still lost to people wearing sandals.
Thing is, right now this is a static war of attrition. Much like WWI's Western front.
The UA has chosen to defend the line and the Russians have chosen to let them, apparently because it is the most low-cost thing to do in terms of lives lost. And this strategy appears to be working. So yes, it really comes down to landing way more shells and such on the UA than get returned on the Russians. Everyone keeps referring to a 7:1 kill ration.
I suppose if it became a war of maneouvre, like a lot of WWII was, everyone would be talking about how many tanks and fighter-bombers each side has. Perhaps that comes next?
If he really wanted to have a go at Shoigu et al he would do that privately or directly [he is a personal friend of Putin, let's not forget] - he wouldn't need a video. The fact that he wants public or social media airtime, means this is intended for OTHERS [Ukraine and allies]. But it's also a great personal image builder - one of a series lately, which makes me suspect that at some point he will enter Russian politics, but for the moment he's definitely playing to the gallery. Ukraine can feel encouraged in Artyomovsk, can pour their last efforts into pushing Wagner back a block or two, but I suspect come the glorious 9th, Wagner will 'somehow' demolish the last of the resistance - right on time.
IMHO, Prigozhin should ask for large allotments of guided bomb packages (UMPC) as well...the whole jdamsky thing... A few dozen of those per day would equal a metric shitload of arty ordnance.
If one takes an EAGLE'S EYES VIEW - one might equally call it a hunch - there might be an even more subtle and much more genius's way of looking at it. But MOST LIKELY it wil never be confirmed in a public way - so as secrecy is key in this game ... so waiting and observing is the modus operandi then left for those not in the know ...
My 2 cents worth: It appears to be an invitation to Ukrainian forces to attack, due to the fact that the “lack of sufficient ammunition” is broadcasted publicly when he could have gave Putin a direct call. This is typical Sun Tzu, displaying weakness to entice the adversary to attack, cut off their retreat route behind them and finish them. The fact that he represents a PMC increases the credence of my theory as he is not directly under the command of the generals that he has publicly criticised. Is he using this opportunity to build credentials for political office? Possible but I don’t think so. Being a PMC is firstly about profits and success depends greatly if your patron is willing to supply you whatever you ask for while you supply the skilled manpower, and if Wagner succeeded in this Sun Tzu move and crushed Ukrainian forces in Bakmut,, Wagner will be getting more demand for their services, and patron countries will now supply them whatever they need, when they ask for it.
UKR army sort of announced that it will start offensive on May 9 or around that date. Why would any army rotate the whole army corps on May 10 (Wagner PMC) in the middle of enemy's offensive? That makes no sense at all. It is a trap from RUS forces. The issue is that neither Gerasimov nor Zaluzhny want to make first move as it will cost lots of blood, ammo and heavy weapons and odds against success are low. Both want to provoke the other side to attack first. Kremlin drone attack is part of this game, its goal was to create public uproar that would force Putin to react. In response Medvedev played a bad cop and forced Zele into a bunker for the rest of the war. Zele will have to govern through messengers and that is not efficient way to do it. Wagner PMC - the fact that its new commander is "butcher" of Mariuopol, just retired colonel general and ex- MoD deputy shows that RUS MoD takes this force very seriously. Prigozhin maybe upset that he is being forced out even from breakfast director position which he holds now. But he will be rewarded later on when he cools off.
A lot comes down to communication. There are many layers between him and the very top, and these layers consist of officers, some very competent, some not; some selfless and conscientious, and some ambitious and self-serving. Cutting through the bureaucratic jungle is what a smart guy learns to do. And the guys at the top are ridiculously busy--with stuff that is both monumentally complex and important, and stuff that is ridiculously trivial, but necessary (like PR and stroking politicians). It is wrong to expect the system or the chain of command to work as it should automatically. The reason the corporate world hires ex-generals is because the generals know who to call and what buttons to push to get things done, likewise the ex politicians and staffers who get hired as lobbyists. He would be better off cultivating a few well-connected allies near the top of the chain of command. However, that sort of thing usually takes years of experience--and a lot of very good, can-do, guys punch out from sheer frustration. He apparently doesn't have the background, the personality, the patience, or the instincts to negotiate that complicated world. I feel for the guy. Having said that, publicly insulting the guys at the top is a very, very bad idea.
I won’t discount that this is for enemy consumption to draw them back to Bakhmut. Assuming it isn’t ...
... I get the impression that he really does want more ammunition to lessen his casualties. Yes he is a PMC but having high casualties because of lack of ammunition (or not as much as he would like) dents his future recruitment efforts and he wants to keep that high. Wagner is in Africa and there is possibly a bigger role to play there so losing more men than (he deems) necessary is not a good thing for now and for the future of Wagner.
I think part of the reason is the MoD haven’t listened to him to date. From his mannerisms and facial expressions he seems to come across like he said it multiple times privately but didn’t get everything he wants and now he’s putting them on the spot. It could get dicey for him or it might work in getting him what he wants but I can’t imagine Putin continuing to side with him if he keeps it up.
As for ammunition, I would imagine that the MoD wants him to succeed. It’s the biggest battle to date and it serves no purpose for Wagner to fail in Bakhmut. He might have even gotten the order to wrap it up before the counteroffensive or May 9th but without the extra ammunition he’s taking more casualties and doesn’t like it.
The MoD might be seeing Wagner as off the book losses but to him that’s not how he sees it. There should be more respect awarded to Wagner by the MoD and the gap in importance closed up between the RF and Wagner, with follow up actions to that effect. They are useful and no point in exhausting them in one battle.
As far as I remember, I think Russia recently passed a law giving Wagner fallen and their families the same benefits as the fallen under service of Russian Armed Forces proper, so there is at least some recognition of their sacrifice.
It's really hard to judge what's going on with all this.
Because there's something in the video that feels like... acted?
Moreover, truth is the first casualty in war, as someone much known put it, but it also tends to be the first casualty in every human business — all the more soon as remarkable money, power, and the likes are in the picture —.
Maybe in the future we will know, now we can't, is my conclusion.
As someone with no military experience, trying to follow the nuances of this conflict has become increasingly bewildering. For example, if the Ukranian position in Bakhmut is down to the "last few quarters", why not level those quarters completely? We've heard endless details about Russia's glide bombs, hypersonics, shell/tank production etc. Surely the Russians have the ordinance to reduce these areas to rubble, yet there's probably some factor(s) here that escape me -- if it could be done, especially before the V-day parades, it would have been done by now. Frustrating.
There have been plenty of reports of civilians still in Bakhmut.
And the Ukrainians assume the ones who stayed are Russian sympathizers, that they're waiting for Russia to take over the city instead of fleeing to another city.
I was thinking about mentioning the possibility of civilians still there, but it seemed pretty far-fetched considering the images of the mayhem and destruction in the area. Must be some incredibly hearty civilians -- everyone I know in my corner of the world would have been long gone months ago.
Getting back to your original question though, I'm sure there's more reasons that I don't know about. With the glide bombs, they're probably keeping those for more high value targets like ammunition stores. About shells, I don't think Prigozhin is lying here, I don't think he's getting as many shells as he wants.
I'm sure they have leveled the vast majority on the buildings in the territory Ukraine still hold in Bahkmut. Have you seen what Bahkmut looks now? It's a waste land. 80-90% of buildings have been destroyed what's left standing are burnt out shells of buildings.
Marinka is even worse. Literally not a single building standing that reaches even the first level in height and the Russians are still fighting over it. The rubble of destroyed buildings is as easy or even easier to defend than intact buildings. Examples include: Stalingrad 1942-3, Grozny & Fallujah 1990s and 2000's, Aleppo, Mosul & Raqqa 2010s.
To be honest, I have a lot of admiration for the guy. He is clearly 100% committed to his guys, is regularly at or near the front, constantly advocates for more support, and so on. He doesn't need to be doing this. If I was a wagner fighter my morale would be sky high. I havent seen leadership of this quality from what is essentially a member of Russian elite. Just saying
Listen, Wagner has been taking a LOT of casualties recently. They have been the tip of the Russian spear in this most bloody battle.
Now picture yourself in Wagner as a soldier. If you watched this video, would you blame Prigozhin for those casualties? Maybe that's the point of these videos. He needs to keep morale and recruitment up.
Hopefully any really high ranking member of the MOD will take that into account when they see this video.
If that's the case he deserves an Oscar (more than Zelensky, anyway), as the performance is sensational
RoloSlavskiy.substack.com is reporting that Shoigu has capitulated to Prigozhin's demands, and has promised to supply more ammo. It took seven hours for the Kremlin to come crawling to Prigozhin. Since it happened so quickly, this seems to rule out the "draw the AFU into an ambush" narrative.
But in addition to a simple & honest goal to requisition an abundant supply of shells from the MOD, Prigozhin is presumably trying to put pressure on Putin to pursue the war more aggressively, and to meet Western provocations (such as the drone attack on Putin's office.)
Rolo is also saying this morning, that the entire Zaporozhye region is being evacuated. It looks like the MOD is planning to abandon the area to the Ukrainians, and take up a new front line much closer to Melitopol. Rolo says he's offering a bet that the Ukrainians will be "sitting outside melitople in June." Would you take the other side of that bet? I wouldn't.
Strelkovite to the front now
*edited by the commenter*
And which narrative is that exactly? You bloviated without even telling us what my alleged narrative is? Maybe you're showing *your* colors, instead?
"in the end it is simple, the Ukrainians don't want to live under communist rule."
I guess that shows your bias. Russia left communism over 30 years ago - they are committed capitalists now.
It is not simply that Ukrainians want to to live under another system. It is the obvious fact that the USA executed a coup in Ukraine that purposefully brought Russia-hating Nazis into power with the intent to cause harm and destruction to Russia. This has nothing to do with Ukraine, and never has. The Ukrainians arre merely tools of the West to accomplish their colonial ends - to weaken Russia, remove its governing regime, cause economic chaos, Balkanise the country and ultimately exploit its resources. Yes, the Ukrainians are victims in this plot to some degree, but that is the price of dealing with the devil - Maidan was never about freedom and democracy - you need to understand that.
And you say none of this had to happen. I disagree. It has to happen in order to bring in a multi-polar world, free from hegemonic, colonialist powers. The West is disintegrating from within - Russia, China and Iran are helping. You need to keep a proper perspective when you moralise on this war.
Jim Z....Zelensky?
" the Ukrainians don't want to live under communist rule. " I'm still on the floor laughing my arse off. Comedy gold right there.
"the Ukrainians don't want to live under communist rule"
"Trump would had fixed this except he was handcuffed because of the Russia collusion hoax"
These two statements really do show your lack of intellect, IE thick as a brick. Your mind is as empty as your vacant substack.
"I stated my concerns to the higher officials in Washington during the Bush administration...... I met with him (Trump)"
Yeah sure you did. That must have been when I was having high level meetings with the Reptilian Space Command.
Sorry their advanced, esoteric technology wiped the SD card in my camera. You'll just have to trust me, I'm truthful.
And they are Reptilians, not reptiles. Labels matter!
Your mockery about someone else's thoughts speaks VOLUMES of itself.... THE TRUTH STANDS UNMOVABLE....
Thoughts are like arseholes, every one has one; but many are worthless.
Your humour compensates for your aggressiveness.... for the moment.... AFTER ALL IT IS ONLY NECESSARY CHATTER FOR A HIGHER PURPOSE ... BUT don't forget - don't get HIGH ON YOUR OWN SUPPLY though ... just saying!
"in the end it is simple, the Ukrainians don't want to live under communist rule." Thanks for making it 100% clear you have literally 0 understanding of what's happening in Ukraine. Opinion discarded.
Russia hasnt been Communist for over 30 years. Fascism and Nazism however is alive & well in Ukraine. At least 50% of Ukrainian citizens do not what to live in a fascist neo-nazi controlled country that's why the LDNR rose up in 2014.
Also congrats on being a paid subscriber I am too but that doesn't mean your comments are valid or should be given more weight.
I'm late on catching up to my commenters. I wanted to let you know that I value you as a subscriber and commenter, I don't know why my comment made you think different. I was merely reacting towards what I felt was a passive aggressive comment of me "showing my colors" or whatever it was you said. However, I later learned by your subsequent comments that that was mostly a misunderstanding.
With that said, I'm kind of new to substack also and to be honest, I could have sworn substack did have that feature you describe. I saw on some other people that paid subscribers had a special icon by their name which was the equivalent of the 'Twitter Blue' thing you mention. I'm going to have to look into that to see why some people have that and others don't.
Also, I never denied being a 'Russian sympathizer'. Where did you get the idea that I was pro-Ukraine or even neutral? I never once pretended to be so. Of course I stand with Russia as any sane person would against the Nazi tyranny of a CIA-controlled fake state like Ukraine. This is a no-brainer. Why would anyone possibly stand with Ukraine, a genocidal, tyrannical openly Nazi state whose national symbol is the Nazi Bandera?
*edit again, by myself again*
Bye, don't let the door smack you in the arse on your way out....
Yep. Too many red lines crossed allowed and not enough hit back
Russian high command is responsible for strategy, and to date that strategy has had remarkable results pursuing a war minimizing casualties, both military and civilian whilst at the same time annihilating the Ukrainian military. Just because you don't agree with the way the war is being conducted, does not mean it is being conducted wrongly. As for the attack on the kremlin, Russia will respond when they develop a clearer understanding of who was behind it and how it was carried out. Such matters have enormous political implications, so Russia must be careful and not fly off the handle. War and retribution is about patience and studied determination, not just emotion.
"This has been said since the onset of the war in 2022. " - And it remains true.
Russia's failings? This is war. Mistakes are made. Things are not always predictable. Tactics must change accordingly, and perhaps even operational strategy. Russia, in spite of its mistakes, has done a remarkable job at executing this war. And again, above all, it must be remembered that this is a war of attrition, not of territory. You take lives and weaponry, then fall back, then take more lives and weaponry. Russia has done well in this. It is Ukraine and its allies that need to be concerned.
As your comment suggests you have taken "sides" already - everyone does what everyone does - but let me remind everyone that this is not a regional conflict - THIS IS BIBLICAL!
BTW - I HAVE PICKED MY SIDE AS WELL - PEACE OF GOD ALMIGHTY!
According to JESUS CHRIST - and who questions HIM has his outcome spelled out - NO-ONE WILL KNOW BEFOREHAND BUT GOD ALMIGHTY ALONE....
ditto
... the statement above has to be corrected - the pathway chosen for me - would be the proper phrasing... as of now
@Desmond: Are you a troll, or what?
Well said Victor. Exactly on the money. The RF is conducting this SMO exceptionally well considering it is actually fighting the collective West and NATO. Ukraine is finished. Preghorzin needs to hand over to the RF Army in Bakhmut because I believe he is going a bit insane.
LOL. I am sure Gerasimov and Shoigu are very concerned about your lost of respect. What could possibly be more important.
@Victor: Exactly.
I avoid reading too many articles such as the above on low-level stuff like Prigozin's antics. It is simply distracting. And the articles or posts are inevitably accompanied by comments such as the above complaining about "redlines." Too many armchair generals who graduated from the Academy of Medal of Honor. People: This is NOT a video game!
Inaction over the drone bombing? Russians don't lash out like a petulant child. I think you are trolling or very ignorant.
No, I am from the UK.
I just do not see how anyone could come to the conclusion you have, knowing what we know about how Russia is conducting this war and the true scope of the fight. They cannot allow themselves to be baited into rash actions, they must stay focused on the task at hand. They are destroying the UKR military, which is the main goal of the SMO. These terrorist attacks are just pin pricks, PR stunts. What would you have them do? I believe Russian generals and commanders are the best in the world, so I trust them to do the right thing to achieve thir objectives.
Putin's ratings are around 80% - Russians are behind him and Russia will deal with this the way they see fit and in the timeframe they see fit.
All objectives of the SMO will be met.
The only one who will decide when Wagner withdraws is the Russian president and the high command of Russias armed forces. Wagner is dependent on and a part of Russias security structure. Russias policy has secured her the diplomatic support of the whole planet except western states, despite the fact that Russia is the aggressor in technical terms. This needs to be understood. Despite a real war with hundreds of thousands of soldiers taking part and the biggests sanctions packages in history Russia only lost a little more than 2% GDP last year. Therefore, a calm and thoughtful way of dealing with this is the only way to success. Crimea bridge and Kremlin, yes, looks bad, but nobody has actually died and the cost for Russia is negligible. But the Ukrainians succeeded in one thing, triggering an emotional response and taking hope from some people. I read the Russian Telegram channels amd some guys want to start a nuclear war because of this stupid fucking drone. It is highly irrational, this is not a video game. Keep your emotions in a safe.
"despite the fact that Russia is the aggressor in technical terms"
Well, that, of course, depends on whose perspective you take. Russia recognised the independence of the donbass Republics and afterward they asked Russia to help defend them against the Ukrainian hordes who were drastically increasing their shelling of civilian centres and gearing up for a major invasion of the Donbass within a few days which would, in all likelihood, have overwhelmed the Donbass. Russia accepted, realised what they would have to accomplish in order to defend these republics and thus began the SMO. So the question has to be asked - who invaded whom?
“These are tough people - light on words - strong on action.” At the end of the day this is just another western cultural meme, another Cold War stereotype. I’m in the U.K. and am friends with a Siberian (a judo player I kid you not) and guess what, he enjoys central heating as much as the worst of us!
Nah. But don’t fret, my anecdote has as much value as mine.
*yours
Shoigu is a politician, or a military strategist, or both? I think he had an opportunity to use those resources to hit ammo and arms build ups. But this war is highly political and economic, and aligned with China they seem to be winning on the global front and the battlefield. But Russia has been very slow, up to now, to escalate, and they are fighting with far fewer men than expected leaving many in reserve. Maybe they are ramping up slower for China, so they give Ukraine an out. But now with regime change on the table, offensive and counter-offensive, and possibly Transnistria in play, things are going to heat up rapidly.
I believe they are saving their main military resources for the upcoming battle with NATO.
The real power and brains behind the SMO is Gerasimov. probably the top military strategist in the world.
Stay the course, GodSpeed❤️🇷🇺💙
Once I got past how much he resembles Golem, I think it is theater and some bad acting.
It’s beginning to peeve me how much of the war coverage has been focused on who has more ordinance. Surely there is still more to winning a war than who gets delivered the most shells and RC drones right?
Right???
Well, though you bring up a good point, I think the finer point of Prigozhin's own angle is that, he's not saying Wagner can't or won't win with the current munitions allotment, what he is trying to say (hard to fully understand due to poor translation) is that the losses would be "5 times less" if he received proper munition allotments. Even in his past, recent screed, he implied the same thing. He said Wagner will still win, will still take Bakhmut--no doubt about that--but that it will simply be more bloody for them if munitions are not supplied.
So sure, war is about more than just munitions, but Prigozhin's point is that the more munitions you have the less casualties you take.
Yes, I agree. I think he he might be saying that he probably has enough ammo to win, but in order to reduce casualties, he needs to have far more ammo in order to smother the Ukies artillery denying them the ability to return fire. On the other hand, I am not a military man.
This makes sense and it could be the feeling of being considered less of a priority by Russian Command because he is a contractor and not part of the organization. He on the other hand feels he's doing most of the fighting and his situation should be re-spected constantly. This is an upper management dispute, but it should have been kept from the enemy.
It could even be just an excuse because Wagner can't take Bakhmut until the 9th! But nothing justifies the videos! Nothing! It has to be punished. It should was hung on the dome of Parliament in the Kremlin to catch drones until the end of the conflict!
It is hard for me to judge a man who has seen so many of his men sacrificed. Yet, he should have kept quiet.
Firstly, I am not Russian nor am I in Russia and it is good to assume a different culture that makes any analysis very difficult. And in second place is the first war to track by seconds on the internet. Perfect insanity! Like believe that General Mizintsev was replaced at the head of logistics, and the next day he joined Wagner for self-recreation?! Which is not possible anywhere in the world! Only if he was expelled from the Army and even then the process would take years. Mizintsev was placed on Wagner by MOD! And today Kadirov came to ask the MOD to adjust the tactics of Wagner, without depending on artillery. Wagner's autonomy is zero! And Prigozhin is the spokesperson for this zero! But after 24 hours I'm inclined to attribute the theater to some burnout. He even wanted to exchange WW1 Maxim machine guns for shells?! Maybe the soldiers rotated during the meat grinder and he didn't. And I attribute as much guilty to him as to the weasel-faced reporter!
As there are many Russians who assure that it's all Prigozhin PR! I don't know and I don't like it because I'm used to the silence of Moscow. But Prigozhin is from St. Petersburg and may be trying Western PR before is going to rest. Many Russians say that Wagner has already finished the assault on Bakhmut! In Soledar the UKR also continued weeks after the fall. And the fall of Bakhmut has not yet been announced because Zelensky continues to send cannon fodder into a city he has already lost! Just to create an artificial perception that Bakhmut did not fall before the Victory Day! Because who sets the deadlines of Russian forces in the media and on the internet is Ukraine!😂Reznikov first assured that RU ultimatum was Feb 24th and now May 9th. Tomorrow we will see the Mi6 date for Kramatorsk when Wagner will return and Russia is already bombing hard! All PR and Reznikov BS as usual.
I get what you are saying. And you are right. Look at the Viet Nam War, where the US literally "had everything," but still lost to people wearing sandals.
Thing is, right now this is a static war of attrition. Much like WWI's Western front.
The UA has chosen to defend the line and the Russians have chosen to let them, apparently because it is the most low-cost thing to do in terms of lives lost. And this strategy appears to be working. So yes, it really comes down to landing way more shells and such on the UA than get returned on the Russians. Everyone keeps referring to a 7:1 kill ration.
I suppose if it became a war of maneouvre, like a lot of WWII was, everyone would be talking about how many tanks and fighter-bombers each side has. Perhaps that comes next?
If he really wanted to have a go at Shoigu et al he would do that privately or directly [he is a personal friend of Putin, let's not forget] - he wouldn't need a video. The fact that he wants public or social media airtime, means this is intended for OTHERS [Ukraine and allies]. But it's also a great personal image builder - one of a series lately, which makes me suspect that at some point he will enter Russian politics, but for the moment he's definitely playing to the gallery. Ukraine can feel encouraged in Artyomovsk, can pour their last efforts into pushing Wagner back a block or two, but I suspect come the glorious 9th, Wagner will 'somehow' demolish the last of the resistance - right on time.
IMHO, Prigozhin should ask for large allotments of guided bomb packages (UMPC) as well...the whole jdamsky thing... A few dozen of those per day would equal a metric shitload of arty ordnance.
The Russian airforce has been FAB's in Bahkmut for weeks now
Thanks, I'd heard that, too but wasn't sure if it was accurate. At any rate asking for more on top of that would make sense in my mind.
If one takes an EAGLE'S EYES VIEW - one might equally call it a hunch - there might be an even more subtle and much more genius's way of looking at it. But MOST LIKELY it wil never be confirmed in a public way - so as secrecy is key in this game ... so waiting and observing is the modus operandi then left for those not in the know ...
Well don't leave us waiting, inquiring minds would like to know
Not gonna get my fingers into "none of my business" - GOD ALMIGHTY - pies - remember all sides are watching....
I love it!
My 2 cents worth: It appears to be an invitation to Ukrainian forces to attack, due to the fact that the “lack of sufficient ammunition” is broadcasted publicly when he could have gave Putin a direct call. This is typical Sun Tzu, displaying weakness to entice the adversary to attack, cut off their retreat route behind them and finish them. The fact that he represents a PMC increases the credence of my theory as he is not directly under the command of the generals that he has publicly criticised. Is he using this opportunity to build credentials for political office? Possible but I don’t think so. Being a PMC is firstly about profits and success depends greatly if your patron is willing to supply you whatever you ask for while you supply the skilled manpower, and if Wagner succeeded in this Sun Tzu move and crushed Ukrainian forces in Bakmut,, Wagner will be getting more demand for their services, and patron countries will now supply them whatever they need, when they ask for it.
Seems to me he has played this game before, & more than once...And each time, more vitriolic than the last.
Ukraine is in desperate need of a victory and Prigozhin is baiting them with these theatrics.
Admiral Ackbar has a phrase for this...
UKR army sort of announced that it will start offensive on May 9 or around that date. Why would any army rotate the whole army corps on May 10 (Wagner PMC) in the middle of enemy's offensive? That makes no sense at all. It is a trap from RUS forces. The issue is that neither Gerasimov nor Zaluzhny want to make first move as it will cost lots of blood, ammo and heavy weapons and odds against success are low. Both want to provoke the other side to attack first. Kremlin drone attack is part of this game, its goal was to create public uproar that would force Putin to react. In response Medvedev played a bad cop and forced Zele into a bunker for the rest of the war. Zele will have to govern through messengers and that is not efficient way to do it. Wagner PMC - the fact that its new commander is "butcher" of Mariuopol, just retired colonel general and ex- MoD deputy shows that RUS MoD takes this force very seriously. Prigozhin maybe upset that he is being forced out even from breakfast director position which he holds now. But he will be rewarded later on when he cools off.
A lot comes down to communication. There are many layers between him and the very top, and these layers consist of officers, some very competent, some not; some selfless and conscientious, and some ambitious and self-serving. Cutting through the bureaucratic jungle is what a smart guy learns to do. And the guys at the top are ridiculously busy--with stuff that is both monumentally complex and important, and stuff that is ridiculously trivial, but necessary (like PR and stroking politicians). It is wrong to expect the system or the chain of command to work as it should automatically. The reason the corporate world hires ex-generals is because the generals know who to call and what buttons to push to get things done, likewise the ex politicians and staffers who get hired as lobbyists. He would be better off cultivating a few well-connected allies near the top of the chain of command. However, that sort of thing usually takes years of experience--and a lot of very good, can-do, guys punch out from sheer frustration. He apparently doesn't have the background, the personality, the patience, or the instincts to negotiate that complicated world. I feel for the guy. Having said that, publicly insulting the guys at the top is a very, very bad idea.
I won’t discount that this is for enemy consumption to draw them back to Bakhmut. Assuming it isn’t ...
... I get the impression that he really does want more ammunition to lessen his casualties. Yes he is a PMC but having high casualties because of lack of ammunition (or not as much as he would like) dents his future recruitment efforts and he wants to keep that high. Wagner is in Africa and there is possibly a bigger role to play there so losing more men than (he deems) necessary is not a good thing for now and for the future of Wagner.
I think part of the reason is the MoD haven’t listened to him to date. From his mannerisms and facial expressions he seems to come across like he said it multiple times privately but didn’t get everything he wants and now he’s putting them on the spot. It could get dicey for him or it might work in getting him what he wants but I can’t imagine Putin continuing to side with him if he keeps it up.
As for ammunition, I would imagine that the MoD wants him to succeed. It’s the biggest battle to date and it serves no purpose for Wagner to fail in Bakhmut. He might have even gotten the order to wrap it up before the counteroffensive or May 9th but without the extra ammunition he’s taking more casualties and doesn’t like it.
The MoD might be seeing Wagner as off the book losses but to him that’s not how he sees it. There should be more respect awarded to Wagner by the MoD and the gap in importance closed up between the RF and Wagner, with follow up actions to that effect. They are useful and no point in exhausting them in one battle.
As far as I remember, I think Russia recently passed a law giving Wagner fallen and their families the same benefits as the fallen under service of Russian Armed Forces proper, so there is at least some recognition of their sacrifice.
It's really hard to judge what's going on with all this.
Because there's something in the video that feels like... acted?
Moreover, truth is the first casualty in war, as someone much known put it, but it also tends to be the first casualty in every human business — all the more soon as remarkable money, power, and the likes are in the picture —.
Maybe in the future we will know, now we can't, is my conclusion.
As someone with no military experience, trying to follow the nuances of this conflict has become increasingly bewildering. For example, if the Ukranian position in Bakhmut is down to the "last few quarters", why not level those quarters completely? We've heard endless details about Russia's glide bombs, hypersonics, shell/tank production etc. Surely the Russians have the ordinance to reduce these areas to rubble, yet there's probably some factor(s) here that escape me -- if it could be done, especially before the V-day parades, it would have been done by now. Frustrating.
There have been plenty of reports of civilians still in Bakhmut.
And the Ukrainians assume the ones who stayed are Russian sympathizers, that they're waiting for Russia to take over the city instead of fleeing to another city.
I was thinking about mentioning the possibility of civilians still there, but it seemed pretty far-fetched considering the images of the mayhem and destruction in the area. Must be some incredibly hearty civilians -- everyone I know in my corner of the world would have been long gone months ago.
Here's an article with supposedly some first hand accounts of civilians from Bakhmut:
https://southfront.org/war-crimes-in-bakhmut-ukrainians-blow-up-houses-with-civilians/
Getting back to your original question though, I'm sure there's more reasons that I don't know about. With the glide bombs, they're probably keeping those for more high value targets like ammunition stores. About shells, I don't think Prigozhin is lying here, I don't think he's getting as many shells as he wants.
Basements are very common there, almost obligatory.
I also wonder from what distance does the (power-upped) artillery fire from the Ukrainian side come, is it from within Bakhmut?
And how have the élite Ukrainian soldiers come into the city.
Wasn't Bakmhut close-to-100% operationally and any way encircled quite some time ago?
We can't expect to really know much about the war theatre, this isn't a reality show, this is something real.
I'm sure they have leveled the vast majority on the buildings in the territory Ukraine still hold in Bahkmut. Have you seen what Bahkmut looks now? It's a waste land. 80-90% of buildings have been destroyed what's left standing are burnt out shells of buildings.
Marinka is even worse. Literally not a single building standing that reaches even the first level in height and the Russians are still fighting over it. The rubble of destroyed buildings is as easy or even easier to defend than intact buildings. Examples include: Stalingrad 1942-3, Grozny & Fallujah 1990s and 2000's, Aleppo, Mosul & Raqqa 2010s.
To be honest, I have a lot of admiration for the guy. He is clearly 100% committed to his guys, is regularly at or near the front, constantly advocates for more support, and so on. He doesn't need to be doing this. If I was a wagner fighter my morale would be sky high. I havent seen leadership of this quality from what is essentially a member of Russian elite. Just saying
Listen, Wagner has been taking a LOT of casualties recently. They have been the tip of the Russian spear in this most bloody battle.
Now picture yourself in Wagner as a soldier. If you watched this video, would you blame Prigozhin for those casualties? Maybe that's the point of these videos. He needs to keep morale and recruitment up.
Hopefully any really high ranking member of the MOD will take that into account when they see this video.