Prigozhin has just fired off his most vitriolic condemnation of the Russian MOD yet, while displaying 30+ dead Wagner bodies he says are just today’s casualties. For the first time, he calls out Shoigu and Gerasimov by name, even tarring them with some very unflattering epithets, which the translation above I believe fails to transmit properly. Here’s another version:
It’s beginning to peeve me how much of the war coverage has been focused on who has more ordinance. Surely there is still more to winning a war than who gets delivered the most shells and RC drones right?
If he really wanted to have a go at Shoigu et al he would do that privately or directly [he is a personal friend of Putin, let's not forget] - he wouldn't need a video. The fact that he wants public or social media airtime, means this is intended for OTHERS [Ukraine and allies]. But it's also a great personal image builder - one of a series lately, which makes me suspect that at some point he will enter Russian politics, but for the moment he's definitely playing to the gallery. Ukraine can feel encouraged in Artyomovsk, can pour their last efforts into pushing Wagner back a block or two, but I suspect come the glorious 9th, Wagner will 'somehow' demolish the last of the resistance - right on time.
IMHO, Prigozhin should ask for large allotments of guided bomb packages (UMPC) as well...the whole jdamsky thing... A few dozen of those per day would equal a metric shitload of arty ordnance.
If one takes an EAGLE'S EYES VIEW - one might equally call it a hunch - there might be an even more subtle and much more genius's way of looking at it. But MOST LIKELY it wil never be confirmed in a public way - so as secrecy is key in this game ... so waiting and observing is the modus operandi then left for those not in the know ...
My 2 cents worth: It appears to be an invitation to Ukrainian forces to attack, due to the fact that the “lack of sufficient ammunition” is broadcasted publicly when he could have gave Putin a direct call. This is typical Sun Tzu, displaying weakness to entice the adversary to attack, cut off their retreat route behind them and finish them. The fact that he represents a PMC increases the credence of my theory as he is not directly under the command of the generals that he has publicly criticised. Is he using this opportunity to build credentials for political office? Possible but I don’t think so. Being a PMC is firstly about profits and success depends greatly if your patron is willing to supply you whatever you ask for while you supply the skilled manpower, and if Wagner succeeded in this Sun Tzu move and crushed Ukrainian forces in Bakmut,, Wagner will be getting more demand for their services, and patron countries will now supply them whatever they need, when they ask for it.
A lot comes down to communication. There are many layers between him and the very top, and these layers consist of officers, some very competent, some not; some selfless and conscientious, and some ambitious and self-serving. Cutting through the bureaucratic jungle is what a smart guy learns to do. And the guys at the top are ridiculously busy--with stuff that is both monumentally complex and important, and stuff that is ridiculously trivial, but necessary (like PR and stroking politicians). It is wrong to expect the system or the chain of command to work as it should automatically. The reason the corporate world hires ex-generals is because the generals know who to call and what buttons to push to get things done, likewise the ex politicians and staffers who get hired as lobbyists. He would be better off cultivating a few well-connected allies near the top of the chain of command. However, that sort of thing usually takes years of experience--and a lot of very good, can-do, guys punch out from sheer frustration. He apparently doesn't have the background, the personality, the patience, or the instincts to negotiate that complicated world. I feel for the guy. Having said that, publicly insulting the guys at the top is a very, very bad idea.
I won’t discount that this is for enemy consumption to draw them back to Bakhmut. Assuming it isn’t ...
... I get the impression that he really does want more ammunition to lessen his casualties. Yes he is a PMC but having high casualties because of lack of ammunition (or not as much as he would like) dents his future recruitment efforts and he wants to keep that high. Wagner is in Africa and there is possibly a bigger role to play there so losing more men than (he deems) necessary is not a good thing for now and for the future of Wagner.
I think part of the reason is the MoD haven’t listened to him to date. From his mannerisms and facial expressions he seems to come across like he said it multiple times privately but didn’t get everything he wants and now he’s putting them on the spot. It could get dicey for him or it might work in getting him what he wants but I can’t imagine Putin continuing to side with him if he keeps it up.
As for ammunition, I would imagine that the MoD wants him to succeed. It’s the biggest battle to date and it serves no purpose for Wagner to fail in Bakhmut. He might have even gotten the order to wrap it up before the counteroffensive or May 9th but without the extra ammunition he’s taking more casualties and doesn’t like it.
The MoD might be seeing Wagner as off the book losses but to him that’s not how he sees it. There should be more respect awarded to Wagner by the MoD and the gap in importance closed up between the RF and Wagner, with follow up actions to that effect. They are useful and no point in exhausting them in one battle.
As someone with no military experience, trying to follow the nuances of this conflict has become increasingly bewildering. For example, if the Ukranian position in Bakhmut is down to the "last few quarters", why not level those quarters completely? We've heard endless details about Russia's glide bombs, hypersonics, shell/tank production etc. Surely the Russians have the ordinance to reduce these areas to rubble, yet there's probably some factor(s) here that escape me -- if it could be done, especially before the V-day parades, it would have been done by now. Frustrating.
To be honest, I have a lot of admiration for the guy. He is clearly 100% committed to his guys, is regularly at or near the front, constantly advocates for more support, and so on. He doesn't need to be doing this. If I was a wagner fighter my morale would be sky high. I havent seen leadership of this quality from what is essentially a member of Russian elite. Just saying
Listen, Wagner has been taking a LOT of casualties recently. They have been the tip of the Russian spear in this most bloody battle.
Now picture yourself in Wagner as a soldier. If you watched this video, would you blame Prigozhin for those casualties? Maybe that's the point of these videos. He needs to keep morale and recruitment up.
Hopefully any really high ranking member of the MOD will take that into account when they see this video.
Stay the course, GodSpeed❤️🇷🇺💙
Once I got past how much he resembles Golem, I think it is theater and some bad acting.
It’s beginning to peeve me how much of the war coverage has been focused on who has more ordinance. Surely there is still more to winning a war than who gets delivered the most shells and RC drones right?
Right???
If he really wanted to have a go at Shoigu et al he would do that privately or directly [he is a personal friend of Putin, let's not forget] - he wouldn't need a video. The fact that he wants public or social media airtime, means this is intended for OTHERS [Ukraine and allies]. But it's also a great personal image builder - one of a series lately, which makes me suspect that at some point he will enter Russian politics, but for the moment he's definitely playing to the gallery. Ukraine can feel encouraged in Artyomovsk, can pour their last efforts into pushing Wagner back a block or two, but I suspect come the glorious 9th, Wagner will 'somehow' demolish the last of the resistance - right on time.
IMHO, Prigozhin should ask for large allotments of guided bomb packages (UMPC) as well...the whole jdamsky thing... A few dozen of those per day would equal a metric shitload of arty ordnance.
If one takes an EAGLE'S EYES VIEW - one might equally call it a hunch - there might be an even more subtle and much more genius's way of looking at it. But MOST LIKELY it wil never be confirmed in a public way - so as secrecy is key in this game ... so waiting and observing is the modus operandi then left for those not in the know ...
I love it!
My 2 cents worth: It appears to be an invitation to Ukrainian forces to attack, due to the fact that the “lack of sufficient ammunition” is broadcasted publicly when he could have gave Putin a direct call. This is typical Sun Tzu, displaying weakness to entice the adversary to attack, cut off their retreat route behind them and finish them. The fact that he represents a PMC increases the credence of my theory as he is not directly under the command of the generals that he has publicly criticised. Is he using this opportunity to build credentials for political office? Possible but I don’t think so. Being a PMC is firstly about profits and success depends greatly if your patron is willing to supply you whatever you ask for while you supply the skilled manpower, and if Wagner succeeded in this Sun Tzu move and crushed Ukrainian forces in Bakmut,, Wagner will be getting more demand for their services, and patron countries will now supply them whatever they need, when they ask for it.
A lot comes down to communication. There are many layers between him and the very top, and these layers consist of officers, some very competent, some not; some selfless and conscientious, and some ambitious and self-serving. Cutting through the bureaucratic jungle is what a smart guy learns to do. And the guys at the top are ridiculously busy--with stuff that is both monumentally complex and important, and stuff that is ridiculously trivial, but necessary (like PR and stroking politicians). It is wrong to expect the system or the chain of command to work as it should automatically. The reason the corporate world hires ex-generals is because the generals know who to call and what buttons to push to get things done, likewise the ex politicians and staffers who get hired as lobbyists. He would be better off cultivating a few well-connected allies near the top of the chain of command. However, that sort of thing usually takes years of experience--and a lot of very good, can-do, guys punch out from sheer frustration. He apparently doesn't have the background, the personality, the patience, or the instincts to negotiate that complicated world. I feel for the guy. Having said that, publicly insulting the guys at the top is a very, very bad idea.
I won’t discount that this is for enemy consumption to draw them back to Bakhmut. Assuming it isn’t ...
... I get the impression that he really does want more ammunition to lessen his casualties. Yes he is a PMC but having high casualties because of lack of ammunition (or not as much as he would like) dents his future recruitment efforts and he wants to keep that high. Wagner is in Africa and there is possibly a bigger role to play there so losing more men than (he deems) necessary is not a good thing for now and for the future of Wagner.
I think part of the reason is the MoD haven’t listened to him to date. From his mannerisms and facial expressions he seems to come across like he said it multiple times privately but didn’t get everything he wants and now he’s putting them on the spot. It could get dicey for him or it might work in getting him what he wants but I can’t imagine Putin continuing to side with him if he keeps it up.
As for ammunition, I would imagine that the MoD wants him to succeed. It’s the biggest battle to date and it serves no purpose for Wagner to fail in Bakhmut. He might have even gotten the order to wrap it up before the counteroffensive or May 9th but without the extra ammunition he’s taking more casualties and doesn’t like it.
The MoD might be seeing Wagner as off the book losses but to him that’s not how he sees it. There should be more respect awarded to Wagner by the MoD and the gap in importance closed up between the RF and Wagner, with follow up actions to that effect. They are useful and no point in exhausting them in one battle.
As someone with no military experience, trying to follow the nuances of this conflict has become increasingly bewildering. For example, if the Ukranian position in Bakhmut is down to the "last few quarters", why not level those quarters completely? We've heard endless details about Russia's glide bombs, hypersonics, shell/tank production etc. Surely the Russians have the ordinance to reduce these areas to rubble, yet there's probably some factor(s) here that escape me -- if it could be done, especially before the V-day parades, it would have been done by now. Frustrating.
To be honest, I have a lot of admiration for the guy. He is clearly 100% committed to his guys, is regularly at or near the front, constantly advocates for more support, and so on. He doesn't need to be doing this. If I was a wagner fighter my morale would be sky high. I havent seen leadership of this quality from what is essentially a member of Russian elite. Just saying
Listen, Wagner has been taking a LOT of casualties recently. They have been the tip of the Russian spear in this most bloody battle.
Now picture yourself in Wagner as a soldier. If you watched this video, would you blame Prigozhin for those casualties? Maybe that's the point of these videos. He needs to keep morale and recruitment up.
Hopefully any really high ranking member of the MOD will take that into account when they see this video.