Now that almost a day has passed and the event has settled in, we can draw some conclusions or at least ask some informed questions about the whos and whys, the cui bonos. The biggest question on everyone’s mind is who was responsible for the Kakhovka dam, and as a corollary, who does it benefit more?
Russia should definitely continue to “go slow.” In fact, they should “go even more slowly.” Why not? Give the Ukuleles and their NATO/US puppet masters more time to cause havoc and win the propaganda war. It’s 7D Chess after all, right?
Unreal. Take the goddamn gloves off, flatten this shit hole, and end this nonsense already. Dare NATO to intervene. Bring it on!
I generally agree with your analysis here, but I live in a very drought-prone area, so I know that the mud that will be left behind by the receding Kakhovka reservoir will be completely dried out into hard-compacted sand within 4-8 weeks depending on how hot and dry of a summer Ukraine has this year. Wouldn't that make it easier to attack ZNPP with amphibious vehicles like BMP-2s and BTR-70s that are most vulnerable when trying to cross the water? Sure, they won't have any cover, but neither would boats and amphibious vehicles trying to cross Kakhovka reservoir when it was full, and at least over sand, BMP-2s will be able to go faster than 5kph.
This article really sharpens the mind. You have a gift to help people see a situation more objectively.
What's your view on the video released by the Russian MOD, ostensibly showing Leopards getting hit? Others say they were agricultural vehicle, pointing out the 4 big wheels that couldn't be part of a tank.
This seems too chaotic to have been direct sabatouge. Nordstream was clear cut, end German ties to Russia permanently.
This I am not so sure. Perhaps it is simply the chaos of war.
Here's another thing: Ukraine could've blown up or overloaded the dam as part of a media distraction operation, as what would be a better distraction from the catastrophic failure of Ukraine's Zaporozhe offensive than a massive "natural" disaster?
D-day 2023 turned out to be deluge day.
DTnews-@6:01 mayor of Nova reported dam was OK & rumors were false. 6:53 mayor reports power plant breached, dam still standing. Wyrd. He was either completely out of the info loop internally or somehow it was "anticipated."
Ukr can still control flow/flooding with 4 upstream dams so intentional flooding is still an option later. This fup benefits both sides but-
Crimean water supply is an expensive chip to play with. At this stage of conflict & time of year it would seem to me to be ludicrously illogical to risk it's security.
Then again, this conflict makes little sense at times, like a bloody slo-mo Kabuki theater production. Fighting will move east & north in the meantime.
Disaster Capitalism ! I reckon there's a bidding war already started amongst US global corporations on who gets to fix the dam - after the Ruskis are sent packing !
Tactically this is probably not much benefit for Russia, and its probably not much for Ukraine either. But you have to remember, the NATO/Ukrainian side has never cared much about their actions being tactical or strategic, at least in regards wining this war, they have been killing fellow Ukrainians since 2014, and continue to use up half their ammunition in order to kill and terrorize as many civilians as they can even now. They've been blowing up buildings and infrastructure, ruining fields, and outright robbing Easter Ukraine for years. The western installed neo-nationalist forces see any death or destruction on those areas as a boon. The NATO forces are waging a classic salt the earth method of warfare on Russian territory, they couldn't be more happy about this. Remember for the US/NATO are well aware Ukraine cant really win, but they believe the more damage they cause the better it would serve their actual goals, their geo-strategic interests.
I think "Undermined" in this case is the regular English meaning of eroded, loss of support, etc rather than the literal put mines underneath, where in Russian mine means just about anything that can be exploded.
Its probably ukraine that did it because it was pointless except for pr and will have no long term effect on the war only on the civilians and thats pretty much typical for everything they do.
This seems to be the best war coverage around. The Ukuleles seem to be reduced to desparate gambits. Russia doing a good job keeping their focus and the military and diplomatic objectives.
WaPo just admitted (as the house organ of the CIA--and it's not just Ignatius) that the US knew of detailed plans to blow up Nordstream three months in advance, and its impossible to believe it could have been pulled off without its help. Maybe they are still trying to put blame on the Ukrainians in order to deflect the rage that must be building from the Germans. --Though I am still inclined to believe Hersch's account, because the WaPo has just admitted for the whole world that everything DC says must be treated as a calculated lie. EVERYTHING.
One thing is for sure. This will give NATO the excuse they need to get more involved.
Less important than who destroyed the dam is who gets the most military advantage from its destruction. It's hard to believe that either major field fortifications or supply dumps were placed where they could be easily flooded.
The term "lock" in English Civil Engineering refers to a channel and at least two water gates used to raise and lower shipping between two bodies of water at differing heights (over the barrage/dam in this case). It can be seen on the right side of the aerial photos, extending perpendicular to the main body.
(Barrage) Gates are large valves fitted to allow controlled raising and lowering of water, and would be the easiest part to damage, but they are according placed in channels to prevent the sort of damage seen if they were to fail, so the damage would have to much more extensive than just the gates, or the spillway/channels would have to have been in a precarious state.
A strike to the turbine hall is the most severe, if the turbines were not already isolated. It's also possible that it was either an accident due to improper maintenance, lack of maintenance, or running the turbine outside it's design specs (loss of operator skills/knowledge in war would seem likely. This is particularly possible if the dispatch control was given directly to the grid regulating control room with no local supervision. Sayano-Shushenskaya power station accident is worth a study if time allows. A 300 ton turbine spindle with sufficient pressure behind it is pretty impressive.
Semi natural is sounding more plausible. Its just too big an escalation for Russia at this time and too small a gain for Ukraine.
Thank you. Even when you don’t give a clear answer all the details from all sides is an amazing piece of work.
Comparing the water levels in the second graph to the dates of the tweeter shows that Russia was able to bring the water level down slightly but not much and not for long which lends credence to the pressure on the dam.
Whether it collapsed on its own due to its weakening from the continuous shelling of Ukraine since last year or had “one last push” is hard to tell. I’ve been reading about it for a while now and it was not hidden the Ukrainian plans for it.
If it didn’t get that last push, then the blame falls squarely on Ukraine. If it did, then most of it but who did the last push is the question. The timing is too good to have fallen completely on its own though.
With Nord Stream where capability and motive makes it clear who did it (US/UK/NATO - I don’t for a moment believe it was Ukraine). This is harder to get a definitive answer. Either way (last push or not), Ukrainians are all thumbs up for it which tells you enough.
McGregor btw thinks it fell on its own, same with Alaister Crooke.