1. "First, there is a clause typically bandied around that states a country cannot join NATO if they have active border disputes or are embroiled in a current conflict."
Since when did NATO care about its own rules?
Stoltenberg is simply using this as a pretext for further escalation.
2. Sudan is intended first and foremost to send a message to Saudi Arabia.
There's a simple, and relatively inexpensive, way for Russia to resolve Crimea: build out Alushta, Sudak, and Feodosia as three large ferry ports.
It would require dredging the harbor and ports so they can receive larger supply ships. Also would require some land redevelopment: expansion of railroad and road networks.
What this would do is provide alternative gateways into Crimea that are not via the Kerch Bridge, Sevastopol, or even Kherson via land. More port capacity should allow commerce to further flourish which most likely brings in additional citizens.
New ports should net diminish the strategic importance of Kerch for the flow of goods and people into and out of Crimea, and diversification is a good strategy in this instance. After all how many strategic receiving hubs can be incapacitated at once: 2 out of 5? Even worst case 3 out of 5 still leaves 40% of the receiving hubs open, and yet it doesn't account for the port of Sevastopol in any way.
What it doesn't solve is water, which means the land bridge connection to the Dnieper remains vital. However for the supply of everything sans water the problem is resolved and it becomes strategically out of reach.
It's a very deep rabbit hole, you can start here for instance https://isgp-studies.com/cia-heroin-and-cocaine-drug-trafficking#mike-harari - Michael Harari top Mossad operative was heavily involved with south american cocaine operations: "1980-1989: Manuel Noriega and his Mossad henchman Micha Harari in Panama;"
Many top leaders of Los Zetas were trained by U.S. Army at Fort Bragg as well as Israeli special unit Sayeret Matkal when they were first nominally 'Mexican Marines' but then broke off and formed cartel units.
An idea for an article(s) during a lull in Ukraine maybe? I knew the CIA were involved in drug trafficking but didn’t about the Mexicans .. I mean the gall of these people with their DEA
The cartels are just another example of the American proxy model, like ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Contras, and so on. They keep Mexico unstable and provide some income for "deep state" black budgets. Thank you for sharing these links!
No, those would be under contracts to keep quiet, covert action comes with the risk, and demands such measures. So they themselves wont make noise, but seeing if they lost anybody recently there might be a way to find out.
Huh? you mean as personnel? We're not talking the political leaders or something, this is the institutional and military, which is massive. They have tens of thousands, from different countries, in different countries, for everything like logistics, training, ops, cyber, information, intelligence, and hundred of other departments. Even their PR in Brussels has lots and thats just one place. We also cant know the full composition, how many US personnel, how many contractors. Besides that most likely they would have been special black ops style intelligence personnel, those that go dark and aren't easy to even who or know where they are. You can eventually get that information, but like I said, it would take time and lots of long nights combing personnel and employee data.
As for information about loses, just look at how many out of uniform or switched uniform foreign fighters Russia has captured, killed or wounded, does anybody in the West make ANY mention or stink about those people? Nope, its all silence. Poland was hiding mutilated bodies in a mine shaft for gods sake, that's still secret and a mystery.
What I mean is that I don't think NATO as an institution has that many employees. The individual countries have personnel. For instance, my understanding is that Poland and the Baltics are hot to trot to get involved in the war. So, if you tell me that 200 Poles and 100 Balts were killed, then that is something to go on. And I go back to my previous comment. If 200 Poles suddenly disappeared, it would have been noticed and somebody would have said something about it.
Poland has lost way more in Ukraine already, and has much more troops even on the direct front line. That's all been a public secret, not so hard to hide dead ops personnel in those numbers, which nobody has noticed so far this past year btw.
In the past in the US many families are still in the dark as to how their soldier boy died overseas when not in a conventional war. They aren't allowed to speak out under threat of losing benefits. Also many families are as brainwashed as their Rambo sons/husbands/fathers are. They keep quiet as part if their "patriotic duty".
Thanks for this superb post. One question: do you think that after the ukie nato offensive(if failed hopefully of course), Russia can ''counter counter'' attack, and if yes to which directions? Will the ways be free of mines? Does Russia has enough manpower regular + mobs + wagner + ldpr? Or would a new mobilization be needed and by how many men?Would Russia have enough weapons available (as production goes on 24/7)for this possible counter attack? Would Odessa not be a top priority when we see all the problems coming from this area(drones attacks, grain deal sabotaged etc..) evenmore this is really a pro Russia city where we know once the ukies about to be defeated there could rise up against Kiev?I know Slaviansk Kramatorsh would be more logical after Bakhmut or even Kharkov which is another big security and safety problem as near the border(strikes on Russian cities).I know the way to go to Odessa is complicated to say the least but if Russia does not go there, Nato will, just after a failed ZE offensive.Odessa and Crimea being the two top (and only) priorities for Nato, they pretty don't care about the rest of the country even less about ukrainians of course. Only interested by ports, wheat, natgaz, neon gaz, lithium, coal to a lesser degree and maybe other minerals?
I simply see no possible way to go towards Odessa any time soon. The only way to reach Odessa would be to go from Belarus-Kiev all the way down the west (right bank) of Dnieper, which would take years to fully carry out (including the mass re-orientation of offensive forces through Belarus ---> Kiev, etc.)
As I said in article, right now Russia is constitutionally mandated to first defend and free its own actual land. LPR / DPR are now Russian federal subjects, Odessa is not. So the first priority they will have to focus on will be to capture the remainder of DOnetsk/Lugansk oblasts, which are not fully captured. Then also Zaporozhye Oblast. The only big question to me really is whether Russia's offensive will only go from currently situated areas and push outward, i.e. Zaporozhye going north, Kremennaya going West, etc. Or will they also launch a new action from north of Kharkov to recapture everything they lost in the Kharkov counter-offensive, i.e. the areas west of the Oskil River.
As to whether they have enough men, I believed they did because I'm still operating under the premise that there's upwards of 150-250k mobiks who are still sitting out. However, it all depends on how many men Ukraine actually recruited as part of its reserves. As you know the estimates are all over the place from 50k to 400k, with many settling on the 200k number. If that number is true, then Russia may not have enough for *decisive* action, but enough for slow gains and positional battles. However, if Ukraine is actually blowing smoke and their new "reserves" they plan to soon utilize are closer to 50-100k maximum, then Russia could have enough to overwhelm them and have numerical superiority in upcoming offensives of their own.
Of course a new mobilization would be nice and there have been rumors for a long time that Russia was going to launch a new one in July of this year, although everytime Peskov was asked he said no (though that doesn't necessarily mean anything of course, just worth mentioning).
It's difficult to say if Russia will launch another mobilization because it also all depends on whether my info is accurate or not about how much forces they still have in reserves in terms of mobiks uncommitted to battle. If I'm wrong and they've actually committed them all then I don't see any way of going forward without a new mobilization. But if I'm right and there's still 150-250k mobiks waiting to be committed, which are only now being used for rotations, then a new mobilization may not be necessary any time soon.
Well if the Ukraine regime loses their Western funding, those massive land leases/sales they gave to Blackrock and other private backers will come calling too. and by then hopefully their army will be so depleted only hiding in Urban jungles just to survive, taking Odessa or the rest would be meaningless, as Ukraine's puppet regime would have no actual authority in most of the territories outside Kiev. Then simple encirclement on those areas will be possible with Russian forces just driving in. Another important factor is to finally finish off the Anti Air layers, which are most at risk of collapsing soon, leaving the skies clear for Su35s to make their own no-fly zones.
Thank you, Simplicius. I really like your methodical approach to answering the questions. As for Q9, this was/is my thinking. However - oh those famous howevers... - at the back of my mind is the last year’s waiting game for the offensive that was really stressful to watch as it was unfolding “This is not too dissimilar to what happened in the Kharkov Counter-Offensive of last September, so the AFU probably likes its chances”. The changes in the Russian defences might stop this mad “Zerg rush” (not that I have any knowledge of this reference but I like the sound of it 😎). Thank you again for your thorough and thoughtful answers.
Q13 - I hope you are right when you say “The only thing to say is that the Ukrainian conflict could accelerate the process. If Russia can win decisively in a way that blows the lid off their lies and misdeeds, the people of Europe will be brought much closer to revolt”! I worry that this might be a possibility in Western Europe, but the Central and Eastern Europe is a different problem. Russophobia has simply exploded even in Slavic countries (with an exception of Poland, which has always had issues with Russia).
That's true but those easterners are mostly 1. powerless by themselves and 2. take their orders from the Westerners anyway, so if the Western ones can be brought to heel then the Eastern lapdogs won't be much to worry about if you ask me. After all, what's Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, etc., without German, French, UK backing? They would just be barking puppies
Yes, I agree that this is the political reality ( or what is left of it). To make a disclosure to my comment, I am a Slovak living in Australia, so, I was more concerned with Slovakia and Bulgaria…and not necessarily with warmongering. I am just so sad that Slavic people in these nations turned against Russians….Moreover, and in line with your comment, I just fail to comprehend that they cannot see how the EU bureaucracy is even more militant in imposing their rules that the Soviet Union was. Maybe I am just ignorant of what is happening from this far away.
I still don't understand the RF's reluctance to decapitate the Kiev regime. Such a move needn't involve full mobilization and declaration of war. Cutting off the head would make it easier to grind down the AFU, to which the Russians appear to be committed anyway. Yet decapitation could shorten the war and reduce the loss of life to the Ukrainian people, if Russia deems it safe to allow a few extra Nazis to survive. (I take it that the fanatics are not a majority of the soldiers.)
As you write, "Kiev is suicidal and doesn’t care at all for its ‘cannon-fodder’ troops". Maybe Russia ought to. It seems doubtful that NATO would rush in to take over directly. The RF could create a lot of chaos just by killing the civilian police forces, the regional governors, and the law associations and their rotten courts. And of course, if the Kiev regime's principals expose theirselves outside of bunkers, they too could be eliminated. So what gives?
I won't lie, I myself don't fully understand the continued 'gentleman's war', with the leadership strikes being the *least* of the concerns for me personally. I'm more puzzled as to the situation with the bridges, power infrastructure, and many other things like that (ports still working as well, etc.).
Only thought I have in this regard is that, most of us who gnash our teeth over Russia's "soft" approach do so from a position of worry/concern, because of the inherent uncertainties of the conflict. We've seen Russia retreat and have seen endless propaganda from the West which at times might make us question if Russia can win, etc. and so we internally plead for them to go 'all out' out of a fear that there's some chance they might actually lose.
However, from the perspective of Russian leadership, Putin, etc., they may very well know a lot of things we don't which makes them absolutely certain of victory, i.e. internal information not only about the Russian army's true strength, but that of the AFU's true condition as well. And so their gentlemanly approach may not worry Putin and co. because they know for certain it will not change the outcome of Russia's victory.
But as to the direct question of WHY Russia is holding back like that, whether victory is assured either way or not, I can only imagine that Russia is deliberately trying to keep the war as low a profile as possible on the global news cycles. The more Russia fights 'quietly' the more that the war falls out of the headlines and regular citizens get tired of it and forget about it, which works in Russia's favor as Ukraine slowly begins to lose support.
However, if Russia were to begin doing major, boat-rocking actions like 'decapitating the leadership', this would cause a global firestorm that would have the world's governments, medias etc. once again demonizing Russia to unprecedented levels.
I assume Putin prefers for the war to go 'unnoticed' as Russia slowly/quietly liquidates the AFU an demilitarizes their entire armed forces without generating too much uproar that could further hamper Russia's economic efforts by splitting allies, pitting them against Russia, incurring more sanctions, etc, etc.
I see your point about the uproar, but it would be a little sick. They'd be caterwauling about fellow spoiled brat elites and their high level managers and servants. These are the parasites of Ukrainian society. The whining is predictable, though, which means that countermeasures could be prepared, at least for the public and governments outside Natoland, Australia, etc.
Maybe we ought to tweak the usual assumption about the West's motives for overthrowing the Ukie gov in 2014 and for instigating the war. The usual explanation is that it's to suck Russia into a quagmire, to make it easier to Decolonize Russia and all that. Given this assumption, killing lots of Ukrainians is just a cost of doing business. It's a means to an end. Yet what if destroying Ukraine and maximizing kills of Ukrainians has been all along, for 20 to 30 yrs, the immediate goal? Now it looks like Russia really has walked into a trap of sorts; the West has manipulated Russia into being the executioner.
It's btw that I have some slightly OT questions related to a video which you published months ago on your BitChute channel. A bus load of Ukrainian women in combat fatigue are singing while on their way to I don't know what. One among them recorded the video apparently while standing in the aisle. She spun around and then turned the camera briefly on herself. There's something about their appearances that I think is worth noting. Iirc, almost every one of them had blondish hair and relatively thin eyebrows. The woman recording the video, however, had darker hair and relatively thick, dark eyebrows (somewhat like me, in fact). Doesn't that strike you as a bit odd? What's the probability of selecting that outlier at random?
I haven't watched the vid recently (and couldn't find it when I scrolled through them last week). And maybe I generalized too quickly about the appearances of the women on the bus. Still, I've been left with the overwhelming impression that something wasn't right. It was like watching a modern day pied piper leading her victims to their destruction on purpose and making a video in order to satisfy an employer's requirements for evidence that an assignment was completed.
About 18 mos. ago in Orlando, Florida, there was an event called the National Conservatism Conference. Basically it was a herding operation hosted by The Edmund Burke Foundation. Nice name, huh? Burke (1729-1797), a Catholic born in Dublin, found his way into the Whig party and the British House of Commons. This foundation named for him, however, "shares the same Israeli staff as the Jerusalem-based Herzl Institute: Yoram Hazony, Ofir Harvry, and Rabbi Raphael 'Rafi' Eis." To me, that bus ride and the so-called National Conservatism Conference, which was preoccupied with confronting China, look like different manifestations of the same, ancient, bad habit.
I have heard on Judge napolitano YT channel, someone talking about 'secret red lines' agreement between US and Russia(even some Z does not even know about).I don't remember the name of the guy talking about that, but for sure not Mcgregor not S Ritter.
I don't really see the point of them going after Zelensky. There are thousands willing to take his place and if you take out Zelensky, the next guy will just direct the war from Polish soil where he'd be untouchable basically (without starting WW3). With green screens and movie technology, the willfully ignorant Ukrainians would be none the wiser.
Z isn't directing the war. He's an actor who can read his lines and take directions. He's a jokester, too, who can improvise, if needed, when playing his assigned role. Notice also that I didn't limit a strike to Z alone.
Now suppose that just 50 of those ambitious people survive a decapitation. Do they agree quickly upon who will be the new prez? And suppose that they don't claw out each others' eyes in a power struggle which cripples the war effort. How reliably obedient will the new guy be?
Well I think we already know from leaked documents that it was Victoria Nuland who was approving key appointments in the Ukrainian government in the past.
I think most people would agree that if Z were gone, it would be the US State Department or the CIA who would be key in choosing the next "leader".
And I don't think Ukrainians would care if Blinken descended from an airplane and put a crown himself on the next Ukrainian leader. I think you could play that on national TV there and Ukrainians would be cheering and celebrating.
Also, maybe you give Z a little less credit than he is due, just a little. Sure he is an actor but he's not just an actor. It's no different than the president of the US. I don't think the US president has made any important foreign policy decision since the assassination of Kennedy. I view politicians as middle management. It's easy to make fun of middle management, they don't make any big decisions, but at the same time, they decide the entire fate of anyone who works for them directly. Even in the US, an office like senator still has power and people are lined up to get into it, ready to compromise themselves in whatever way necessary to get that power and fame.
One more example, you have the allegations by Seymour Hersh that Z has stolen $400 million of the funds sent to the Ukraine. If he was just an actor, with no power at all, he wouldn't have been able to do that, if it's true...
From what I can see, the leadership of Ukraine are just actors, replaceable and interchangeable, kill them and US/NATO will find a dozen more from the swamps and sewers. They are just the PR face, the front, and basic local managers, they are not the ones making the decisions, so are strategically irrelevant.
Does anybody know if nazis (pure nazis) like Yarosh are: first still alive? Second still in 'power' in Kiev or did the US cleaned the place when they fired multiples generals, officers etc in January (if not wrong) including the copter ''crash'' or false flag?
Keep in mind we don't know yet, Russia MAY very well respond more strongly than we think to the first confirmed DU usage. We'll have to wait and see. Secretly, I too wish they'd respond in a major way, but I was simply remarking in the article how I think ultimately there's not much they can do without imbalancing the risk/reward structure. I still retain some hope though that they'll have more than just 'words' if DU is used.
Apr 27, 2023·edited Apr 27, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Perhaps there might be a long, old school journalistic way to find out about the underground NATO bunker story, by researching any dead or missing NATO/Pentagon rank and file over the past several weeks. It would take a long time, and getting access to personal records and relatives/families who have had funerals suddenly. If it was the old days, and the world wasn't completely sold out, it would win those journalists a Pulitzer Prize
I’ve seen war. I can still smell stench of decaying bodies and burning villages. Members of my family were killed and slaughtered in a war back home. Moreover, I lived in Ukraine for a month in 2016 and for another four (4) months in 2017. Loved the unique sense of humor of people in Odessa, the beauty of Tatras. I’ve been to Russia several times. Love the literature, the music, the divine madness of that enormous land. Love the people of both countries. I also know perils of propaganda, having been born in a communist country where I worked as a journalist. Ukrainian tragedy breaks my heart. War-profiteers made my blood boil.
Having said that, on the topic of "soft" Russian approach I'd like to play a mind-reader.
It seems to me that the key issue lies in the profound sense of betrayal that Putin and the Russians feel, coupled with a historical mission born out of shattered trust. For years, Putin referred to the "West" as "our partners" and, on occasion, "our friends." They wanted a wealthy, prosperous Russia that was integrated with the West while also having dealings in the East. "It's the economy, stupid!" Russians are obviously closer to Europeans than to the Chinese (I know, I know...), but at least their current political leadership is realistic.
Now they've seen how truly evil that system is, ruled by U.S. oligarchs who are called "philanthropists" while the word "oligarch" is reserved for Russian billionaires. They want to destroy Russia, and they have clearly stated their intentions, which means that Russia has to act. Unfortunately, this time it’s clear to the Russians that they have to destroy that system in order for the "multipolar" world that they and China claim to want to survive. With the U.S. as it is now, with a cruel and selfish cabal of true criminals at its helm, no world is possible. The U.S., as it is now, will not just wither and go away. It would destroy most of the world if it can’t control it.
Therefore, the "Evil Empire Must Die."Ukraine is merely a bloody tool, one of the most tragic displays of the U.S. cruelty. Putin and Russia have no need to destroy it - they do not want their allies to see it. They need the goodwill of the (new, multipolar) world in which they would be a very important factor. Thus, the plan of destroying the dollar, the only tool in the Evil Empire's arsenal that keeps its military alive and its dominance real. As we know, the dollar is not real, just a funny-money. Alas, there are enough greedy, corrupt puppets all over the world ready to launder it and magically transform it into something real. Once the dollar is gone, the U.S. is gone and will eat itself alive, already deeply mentally sick and divided into insane bubbles of hatred toward the other. Also, with the planned destruction of Germany and refocusing on Poland, the only country with a significant number of soldiers available to die for the Empire's profit, the danger for Russia is even more real. More meat and blood are closer. Historical hatred is, strangely, stronger. Russia needs to get ready for a long war on all fronts: diplomatic, economic, and military, with the last one very likely escalating. Russia needs to refine and increase the number of their hypersonic missiles so the U.S. Navy would be subject to total destruction in mere minutes—a threat that hangs over U.S. military planners—and strengthen their air defense, even in the case of a nuclear attack by the maniacs.
Unlike the U.S., which still thinks it can turn the Eye of Sauron toward Sudan or any other easy prey at a whim, and believes that the destruction of Russia is just a matter of time of their choosing (if this attempt fails), Russia knows, with every fiber of each dead soldier, that we’re witnessing a life and death struggle with the Empire that lived and thrived on other people’s misery, suffering, and death.
Speeding up the war in Ukraine or its destruction would not help them; on the contrary, it would be detrimental.
These are just my hastily put-together 2 cents. You can take them for their value or shrug them off at will. Herein, I pondered all those issues a bit more:
1. "First, there is a clause typically bandied around that states a country cannot join NATO if they have active border disputes or are embroiled in a current conflict."
Since when did NATO care about its own rules?
Stoltenberg is simply using this as a pretext for further escalation.
2. Sudan is intended first and foremost to send a message to Saudi Arabia.
"and no sane country would go to war against Russia over Ukraine, anyway." I agree, but sanity seems to be in short supply these days.
There's a simple, and relatively inexpensive, way for Russia to resolve Crimea: build out Alushta, Sudak, and Feodosia as three large ferry ports.
It would require dredging the harbor and ports so they can receive larger supply ships. Also would require some land redevelopment: expansion of railroad and road networks.
What this would do is provide alternative gateways into Crimea that are not via the Kerch Bridge, Sevastopol, or even Kherson via land. More port capacity should allow commerce to further flourish which most likely brings in additional citizens.
New ports should net diminish the strategic importance of Kerch for the flow of goods and people into and out of Crimea, and diversification is a good strategy in this instance. After all how many strategic receiving hubs can be incapacitated at once: 2 out of 5? Even worst case 3 out of 5 still leaves 40% of the receiving hubs open, and yet it doesn't account for the port of Sevastopol in any way.
What it doesn't solve is water, which means the land bridge connection to the Dnieper remains vital. However for the supply of everything sans water the problem is resolved and it becomes strategically out of reach.
“And Don itself apparently stems from ancient Scythian-Aryan roots for the word ‘danu’ that means river, water, or liquid.” Hence Danube, I suppose?
Interesting correlation, I didn't think of that. Apparently you might be right: https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=44784
The ancient name of Danube was Istros...
"there’s a trove of evidence for the fact that Mexican cartels have long been under the control of Mossad": wat?
It's a very deep rabbit hole, you can start here for instance https://isgp-studies.com/cia-heroin-and-cocaine-drug-trafficking#mike-harari - Michael Harari top Mossad operative was heavily involved with south american cocaine operations: "1980-1989: Manuel Noriega and his Mossad henchman Micha Harari in Panama;"
http://www.intrepidreport.com/archives/968 "Zeta gang connected to U.S. Special Forces/Mossad"
https://web.archive.org/web/20220701210628/https://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/why-some-of-the-los-zetas-cartel-founders-were-trained-by-the-us-army/
http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2012/04/origins-of-los-zetas-and-its-founders.html
http://www.renegadetribune.com/israeli-unit-8200-created-spyware-firms-assisting-mexican-cartels/
Many top leaders of Los Zetas were trained by U.S. Army at Fort Bragg as well as Israeli special unit Sayeret Matkal when they were first nominally 'Mexican Marines' but then broke off and formed cartel units.
An idea for an article(s) during a lull in Ukraine maybe? I knew the CIA were involved in drug trafficking but didn’t about the Mexicans .. I mean the gall of these people with their DEA
The cartels are just another example of the American proxy model, like ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Contras, and so on. They keep Mexico unstable and provide some income for "deep state" black budgets. Thank you for sharing these links!
exactly ^
Thank you very, very much.
Looks like poor Gary Webb was on something.
Thank for all your answers very thorough!!!!
RE: Question 2
If 300 NATO personnel were killed, we would have heard from relatives by now. The censors are not that competent.
What's to stop them from lying to their families about where and how they died?
No, those would be under contracts to keep quiet, covert action comes with the risk, and demands such measures. So they themselves wont make noise, but seeing if they lost anybody recently there might be a way to find out.
Does NATO even have 300 personnel?
If 300 people from NATO countries suddenly disappeared, information would have leaked out by now.
Huh? you mean as personnel? We're not talking the political leaders or something, this is the institutional and military, which is massive. They have tens of thousands, from different countries, in different countries, for everything like logistics, training, ops, cyber, information, intelligence, and hundred of other departments. Even their PR in Brussels has lots and thats just one place. We also cant know the full composition, how many US personnel, how many contractors. Besides that most likely they would have been special black ops style intelligence personnel, those that go dark and aren't easy to even who or know where they are. You can eventually get that information, but like I said, it would take time and lots of long nights combing personnel and employee data.
As for information about loses, just look at how many out of uniform or switched uniform foreign fighters Russia has captured, killed or wounded, does anybody in the West make ANY mention or stink about those people? Nope, its all silence. Poland was hiding mutilated bodies in a mine shaft for gods sake, that's still secret and a mystery.
What I mean is that I don't think NATO as an institution has that many employees. The individual countries have personnel. For instance, my understanding is that Poland and the Baltics are hot to trot to get involved in the war. So, if you tell me that 200 Poles and 100 Balts were killed, then that is something to go on. And I go back to my previous comment. If 200 Poles suddenly disappeared, it would have been noticed and somebody would have said something about it.
Poland has lost way more in Ukraine already, and has much more troops even on the direct front line. That's all been a public secret, not so hard to hide dead ops personnel in those numbers, which nobody has noticed so far this past year btw.
generals (s)
How many generals does the Polish Army have? How many have not been seen in public since the event in question?
In the past in the US many families are still in the dark as to how their soldier boy died overseas when not in a conventional war. They aren't allowed to speak out under threat of losing benefits. Also many families are as brainwashed as their Rambo sons/husbands/fathers are. They keep quiet as part if their "patriotic duty".
Thanks for this superb post. One question: do you think that after the ukie nato offensive(if failed hopefully of course), Russia can ''counter counter'' attack, and if yes to which directions? Will the ways be free of mines? Does Russia has enough manpower regular + mobs + wagner + ldpr? Or would a new mobilization be needed and by how many men?Would Russia have enough weapons available (as production goes on 24/7)for this possible counter attack? Would Odessa not be a top priority when we see all the problems coming from this area(drones attacks, grain deal sabotaged etc..) evenmore this is really a pro Russia city where we know once the ukies about to be defeated there could rise up against Kiev?I know Slaviansk Kramatorsh would be more logical after Bakhmut or even Kharkov which is another big security and safety problem as near the border(strikes on Russian cities).I know the way to go to Odessa is complicated to say the least but if Russia does not go there, Nato will, just after a failed ZE offensive.Odessa and Crimea being the two top (and only) priorities for Nato, they pretty don't care about the rest of the country even less about ukrainians of course. Only interested by ports, wheat, natgaz, neon gaz, lithium, coal to a lesser degree and maybe other minerals?
I simply see no possible way to go towards Odessa any time soon. The only way to reach Odessa would be to go from Belarus-Kiev all the way down the west (right bank) of Dnieper, which would take years to fully carry out (including the mass re-orientation of offensive forces through Belarus ---> Kiev, etc.)
As I said in article, right now Russia is constitutionally mandated to first defend and free its own actual land. LPR / DPR are now Russian federal subjects, Odessa is not. So the first priority they will have to focus on will be to capture the remainder of DOnetsk/Lugansk oblasts, which are not fully captured. Then also Zaporozhye Oblast. The only big question to me really is whether Russia's offensive will only go from currently situated areas and push outward, i.e. Zaporozhye going north, Kremennaya going West, etc. Or will they also launch a new action from north of Kharkov to recapture everything they lost in the Kharkov counter-offensive, i.e. the areas west of the Oskil River.
As to whether they have enough men, I believed they did because I'm still operating under the premise that there's upwards of 150-250k mobiks who are still sitting out. However, it all depends on how many men Ukraine actually recruited as part of its reserves. As you know the estimates are all over the place from 50k to 400k, with many settling on the 200k number. If that number is true, then Russia may not have enough for *decisive* action, but enough for slow gains and positional battles. However, if Ukraine is actually blowing smoke and their new "reserves" they plan to soon utilize are closer to 50-100k maximum, then Russia could have enough to overwhelm them and have numerical superiority in upcoming offensives of their own.
Of course a new mobilization would be nice and there have been rumors for a long time that Russia was going to launch a new one in July of this year, although everytime Peskov was asked he said no (though that doesn't necessarily mean anything of course, just worth mentioning).
It's difficult to say if Russia will launch another mobilization because it also all depends on whether my info is accurate or not about how much forces they still have in reserves in terms of mobiks uncommitted to battle. If I'm wrong and they've actually committed them all then I don't see any way of going forward without a new mobilization. But if I'm right and there's still 150-250k mobiks waiting to be committed, which are only now being used for rotations, then a new mobilization may not be necessary any time soon.
Well if the Ukraine regime loses their Western funding, those massive land leases/sales they gave to Blackrock and other private backers will come calling too. and by then hopefully their army will be so depleted only hiding in Urban jungles just to survive, taking Odessa or the rest would be meaningless, as Ukraine's puppet regime would have no actual authority in most of the territories outside Kiev. Then simple encirclement on those areas will be possible with Russian forces just driving in. Another important factor is to finally finish off the Anti Air layers, which are most at risk of collapsing soon, leaving the skies clear for Su35s to make their own no-fly zones.
Extensive, my goodness, peeps. This is the place to grab and go. Many thanks for a par excellent read, comments. Glory to Mother Russia❤️🇷🇺💙
Thank you, Simplicius. I really like your methodical approach to answering the questions. As for Q9, this was/is my thinking. However - oh those famous howevers... - at the back of my mind is the last year’s waiting game for the offensive that was really stressful to watch as it was unfolding “This is not too dissimilar to what happened in the Kharkov Counter-Offensive of last September, so the AFU probably likes its chances”. The changes in the Russian defences might stop this mad “Zerg rush” (not that I have any knowledge of this reference but I like the sound of it 😎). Thank you again for your thorough and thoughtful answers.
Q13 - I hope you are right when you say “The only thing to say is that the Ukrainian conflict could accelerate the process. If Russia can win decisively in a way that blows the lid off their lies and misdeeds, the people of Europe will be brought much closer to revolt”! I worry that this might be a possibility in Western Europe, but the Central and Eastern Europe is a different problem. Russophobia has simply exploded even in Slavic countries (with an exception of Poland, which has always had issues with Russia).
That's true but those easterners are mostly 1. powerless by themselves and 2. take their orders from the Westerners anyway, so if the Western ones can be brought to heel then the Eastern lapdogs won't be much to worry about if you ask me. After all, what's Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, etc., without German, French, UK backing? They would just be barking puppies
Yes, I agree that this is the political reality ( or what is left of it). To make a disclosure to my comment, I am a Slovak living in Australia, so, I was more concerned with Slovakia and Bulgaria…and not necessarily with warmongering. I am just so sad that Slavic people in these nations turned against Russians….Moreover, and in line with your comment, I just fail to comprehend that they cannot see how the EU bureaucracy is even more militant in imposing their rules that the Soviet Union was. Maybe I am just ignorant of what is happening from this far away.
Thank you for your comprehensive well documented answers to these questions. As always a few reading will be needed to assimilate all the information.
I still don't understand the RF's reluctance to decapitate the Kiev regime. Such a move needn't involve full mobilization and declaration of war. Cutting off the head would make it easier to grind down the AFU, to which the Russians appear to be committed anyway. Yet decapitation could shorten the war and reduce the loss of life to the Ukrainian people, if Russia deems it safe to allow a few extra Nazis to survive. (I take it that the fanatics are not a majority of the soldiers.)
As you write, "Kiev is suicidal and doesn’t care at all for its ‘cannon-fodder’ troops". Maybe Russia ought to. It seems doubtful that NATO would rush in to take over directly. The RF could create a lot of chaos just by killing the civilian police forces, the regional governors, and the law associations and their rotten courts. And of course, if the Kiev regime's principals expose theirselves outside of bunkers, they too could be eliminated. So what gives?
I won't lie, I myself don't fully understand the continued 'gentleman's war', with the leadership strikes being the *least* of the concerns for me personally. I'm more puzzled as to the situation with the bridges, power infrastructure, and many other things like that (ports still working as well, etc.).
Only thought I have in this regard is that, most of us who gnash our teeth over Russia's "soft" approach do so from a position of worry/concern, because of the inherent uncertainties of the conflict. We've seen Russia retreat and have seen endless propaganda from the West which at times might make us question if Russia can win, etc. and so we internally plead for them to go 'all out' out of a fear that there's some chance they might actually lose.
However, from the perspective of Russian leadership, Putin, etc., they may very well know a lot of things we don't which makes them absolutely certain of victory, i.e. internal information not only about the Russian army's true strength, but that of the AFU's true condition as well. And so their gentlemanly approach may not worry Putin and co. because they know for certain it will not change the outcome of Russia's victory.
But as to the direct question of WHY Russia is holding back like that, whether victory is assured either way or not, I can only imagine that Russia is deliberately trying to keep the war as low a profile as possible on the global news cycles. The more Russia fights 'quietly' the more that the war falls out of the headlines and regular citizens get tired of it and forget about it, which works in Russia's favor as Ukraine slowly begins to lose support.
However, if Russia were to begin doing major, boat-rocking actions like 'decapitating the leadership', this would cause a global firestorm that would have the world's governments, medias etc. once again demonizing Russia to unprecedented levels.
I assume Putin prefers for the war to go 'unnoticed' as Russia slowly/quietly liquidates the AFU an demilitarizes their entire armed forces without generating too much uproar that could further hamper Russia's economic efforts by splitting allies, pitting them against Russia, incurring more sanctions, etc, etc.
I see your point about the uproar, but it would be a little sick. They'd be caterwauling about fellow spoiled brat elites and their high level managers and servants. These are the parasites of Ukrainian society. The whining is predictable, though, which means that countermeasures could be prepared, at least for the public and governments outside Natoland, Australia, etc.
Maybe we ought to tweak the usual assumption about the West's motives for overthrowing the Ukie gov in 2014 and for instigating the war. The usual explanation is that it's to suck Russia into a quagmire, to make it easier to Decolonize Russia and all that. Given this assumption, killing lots of Ukrainians is just a cost of doing business. It's a means to an end. Yet what if destroying Ukraine and maximizing kills of Ukrainians has been all along, for 20 to 30 yrs, the immediate goal? Now it looks like Russia really has walked into a trap of sorts; the West has manipulated Russia into being the executioner.
It's btw that I have some slightly OT questions related to a video which you published months ago on your BitChute channel. A bus load of Ukrainian women in combat fatigue are singing while on their way to I don't know what. One among them recorded the video apparently while standing in the aisle. She spun around and then turned the camera briefly on herself. There's something about their appearances that I think is worth noting. Iirc, almost every one of them had blondish hair and relatively thin eyebrows. The woman recording the video, however, had darker hair and relatively thick, dark eyebrows (somewhat like me, in fact). Doesn't that strike you as a bit odd? What's the probability of selecting that outlier at random?
I haven't watched the vid recently (and couldn't find it when I scrolled through them last week). And maybe I generalized too quickly about the appearances of the women on the bus. Still, I've been left with the overwhelming impression that something wasn't right. It was like watching a modern day pied piper leading her victims to their destruction on purpose and making a video in order to satisfy an employer's requirements for evidence that an assignment was completed.
Not sure which video you're referring to. I recall the infamous Georgian females heading to frontline: https://www.bitchute.com/video/NTwC1Wjn5RsT/
or I suppose this one? https://www.bitchute.com/video/CYJcRsOHx3Uq/
The latter one, "Bus Full...".
About 18 mos. ago in Orlando, Florida, there was an event called the National Conservatism Conference. Basically it was a herding operation hosted by The Edmund Burke Foundation. Nice name, huh? Burke (1729-1797), a Catholic born in Dublin, found his way into the Whig party and the British House of Commons. This foundation named for him, however, "shares the same Israeli staff as the Jerusalem-based Herzl Institute: Yoram Hazony, Ofir Harvry, and Rabbi Raphael 'Rafi' Eis." To me, that bus ride and the so-called National Conservatism Conference, which was preoccupied with confronting China, look like different manifestations of the same, ancient, bad habit.
https://www.unz.com/estriker/exclusive-americas-most-important-right-wing-conference-of-the-year-is-an-israeli-influence-operation/
I have heard on Judge napolitano YT channel, someone talking about 'secret red lines' agreement between US and Russia(even some Z does not even know about).I don't remember the name of the guy talking about that, but for sure not Mcgregor not S Ritter.
I don't really see the point of them going after Zelensky. There are thousands willing to take his place and if you take out Zelensky, the next guy will just direct the war from Polish soil where he'd be untouchable basically (without starting WW3). With green screens and movie technology, the willfully ignorant Ukrainians would be none the wiser.
Z isn't directing the war. He's an actor who can read his lines and take directions. He's a jokester, too, who can improvise, if needed, when playing his assigned role. Notice also that I didn't limit a strike to Z alone.
Now suppose that just 50 of those ambitious people survive a decapitation. Do they agree quickly upon who will be the new prez? And suppose that they don't claw out each others' eyes in a power struggle which cripples the war effort. How reliably obedient will the new guy be?
Well I think we already know from leaked documents that it was Victoria Nuland who was approving key appointments in the Ukrainian government in the past.
I think most people would agree that if Z were gone, it would be the US State Department or the CIA who would be key in choosing the next "leader".
And I don't think Ukrainians would care if Blinken descended from an airplane and put a crown himself on the next Ukrainian leader. I think you could play that on national TV there and Ukrainians would be cheering and celebrating.
Also, maybe you give Z a little less credit than he is due, just a little. Sure he is an actor but he's not just an actor. It's no different than the president of the US. I don't think the US president has made any important foreign policy decision since the assassination of Kennedy. I view politicians as middle management. It's easy to make fun of middle management, they don't make any big decisions, but at the same time, they decide the entire fate of anyone who works for them directly. Even in the US, an office like senator still has power and people are lined up to get into it, ready to compromise themselves in whatever way necessary to get that power and fame.
One more example, you have the allegations by Seymour Hersh that Z has stolen $400 million of the funds sent to the Ukraine. If he was just an actor, with no power at all, he wouldn't have been able to do that, if it's true...
Quite right. The Z man is a middle manager who can act.
From what I can see, the leadership of Ukraine are just actors, replaceable and interchangeable, kill them and US/NATO will find a dozen more from the swamps and sewers. They are just the PR face, the front, and basic local managers, they are not the ones making the decisions, so are strategically irrelevant.
Does anybody know if nazis (pure nazis) like Yarosh are: first still alive? Second still in 'power' in Kiev or did the US cleaned the place when they fired multiples generals, officers etc in January (if not wrong) including the copter ''crash'' or false flag?
Re 7, first time i had a confirmed use of DU tank ammo a DU equipped kinzal would be headed to a target close to the polish border.
But im kind of a jerk like that.
Keep in mind we don't know yet, Russia MAY very well respond more strongly than we think to the first confirmed DU usage. We'll have to wait and see. Secretly, I too wish they'd respond in a major way, but I was simply remarking in the article how I think ultimately there's not much they can do without imbalancing the risk/reward structure. I still retain some hope though that they'll have more than just 'words' if DU is used.
Perhaps there might be a long, old school journalistic way to find out about the underground NATO bunker story, by researching any dead or missing NATO/Pentagon rank and file over the past several weeks. It would take a long time, and getting access to personal records and relatives/families who have had funerals suddenly. If it was the old days, and the world wasn't completely sold out, it would win those journalists a Pulitzer Prize
I’ve seen war. I can still smell stench of decaying bodies and burning villages. Members of my family were killed and slaughtered in a war back home. Moreover, I lived in Ukraine for a month in 2016 and for another four (4) months in 2017. Loved the unique sense of humor of people in Odessa, the beauty of Tatras. I’ve been to Russia several times. Love the literature, the music, the divine madness of that enormous land. Love the people of both countries. I also know perils of propaganda, having been born in a communist country where I worked as a journalist. Ukrainian tragedy breaks my heart. War-profiteers made my blood boil.
Having said that, on the topic of "soft" Russian approach I'd like to play a mind-reader.
It seems to me that the key issue lies in the profound sense of betrayal that Putin and the Russians feel, coupled with a historical mission born out of shattered trust. For years, Putin referred to the "West" as "our partners" and, on occasion, "our friends." They wanted a wealthy, prosperous Russia that was integrated with the West while also having dealings in the East. "It's the economy, stupid!" Russians are obviously closer to Europeans than to the Chinese (I know, I know...), but at least their current political leadership is realistic.
Now they've seen how truly evil that system is, ruled by U.S. oligarchs who are called "philanthropists" while the word "oligarch" is reserved for Russian billionaires. They want to destroy Russia, and they have clearly stated their intentions, which means that Russia has to act. Unfortunately, this time it’s clear to the Russians that they have to destroy that system in order for the "multipolar" world that they and China claim to want to survive. With the U.S. as it is now, with a cruel and selfish cabal of true criminals at its helm, no world is possible. The U.S., as it is now, will not just wither and go away. It would destroy most of the world if it can’t control it.
Therefore, the "Evil Empire Must Die."Ukraine is merely a bloody tool, one of the most tragic displays of the U.S. cruelty. Putin and Russia have no need to destroy it - they do not want their allies to see it. They need the goodwill of the (new, multipolar) world in which they would be a very important factor. Thus, the plan of destroying the dollar, the only tool in the Evil Empire's arsenal that keeps its military alive and its dominance real. As we know, the dollar is not real, just a funny-money. Alas, there are enough greedy, corrupt puppets all over the world ready to launder it and magically transform it into something real. Once the dollar is gone, the U.S. is gone and will eat itself alive, already deeply mentally sick and divided into insane bubbles of hatred toward the other. Also, with the planned destruction of Germany and refocusing on Poland, the only country with a significant number of soldiers available to die for the Empire's profit, the danger for Russia is even more real. More meat and blood are closer. Historical hatred is, strangely, stronger. Russia needs to get ready for a long war on all fronts: diplomatic, economic, and military, with the last one very likely escalating. Russia needs to refine and increase the number of their hypersonic missiles so the U.S. Navy would be subject to total destruction in mere minutes—a threat that hangs over U.S. military planners—and strengthen their air defense, even in the case of a nuclear attack by the maniacs.
Unlike the U.S., which still thinks it can turn the Eye of Sauron toward Sudan or any other easy prey at a whim, and believes that the destruction of Russia is just a matter of time of their choosing (if this attempt fails), Russia knows, with every fiber of each dead soldier, that we’re witnessing a life and death struggle with the Empire that lived and thrived on other people’s misery, suffering, and death.
Speeding up the war in Ukraine or its destruction would not help them; on the contrary, it would be detrimental.
These are just my hastily put-together 2 cents. You can take them for their value or shrug them off at will. Herein, I pondered all those issues a bit more:
https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/united-states-vs-russia-political