Feb 10, 2023·edited Feb 10, 2023Liked by Simplicius
you help us understand the real stakes. Massive arm production was decisive for the collapse of the Soviet Union. They had created a military industrial behemoth which hoovered all their resources, but ironies of history, in the long run that policy has proved critical for survival. Putin soon understood this fsct and has pursued to have an strategic balance between tanks and butter from the beginning. The Ukranian bone is resulting much harder than expected to crack to the surprise of both Nato and Russia. The empire's industrial powerhorse is weak now, but its growing by the hour. If Russia doesnt meaningfully speed up before the end of the summer the Z regime will be able to launch major offensives with growing number of Nato forces engaged. The big question is still unanswered. WTF is China going to do about it. They know 200 % they are the next in the list, and still arent able to decisevely support Russia. Are they waiting until the yanks cross the Yalu river?
If you are running an arms plant during a war, sending a rail car full of shells directly to the front is a lot easier than sending it to a town, to be potentially loaded on a truck, take to a warehouse and unloaded so someone in another ware house could load a truck to take 1970's shells to a rail car to go to the front.
I expect both is happening, and some empty warehouses are being re filled, some old shells going, some new shells going.
Inventory rotation is good practice anyway, use the old shells before you have to decommission them.
Nato reports look like snitching on themselves. They Say Russia but it means themselves, they're running low, they're turning to Korea (south), in fact Ukraine is using Iranian ammunition. No evidence of any foreign material aid to Russia, shown yet, they are projecting the appearance of strength and independence, accepting foreign aid would look weak.
North Korea shelled an island heavily, and South Koreans snuck over and investigated, and found a double-digit dud rate in their shells. If there were north Korean shells in Ukraine someone would have posted a picture of a dud by now.
Looking at that American shell factory you posted, the one with the forge - German forges must be multiple times bigger, and they will have to spend a lot of money on energy to heat theirs. While Russia is flaring away excess gas they can't ship or store, German glass factories are shuttering perhaps permanently.
Could you consider an article on the soviet ammunition stockpiles being destroyed across Russia and Europe in the years leading-up to the war? The Himars epiosode shows that they're prime targets desired to hit by both sides. And exactly how has Russia dealt with this problem Nato posed? Did they just have to deliver the shells in small batches so Himars couldn't get them, and that's why the daily number fired reduced?
Fun fact the largest explosion in Canada's history was an ammunition ship off from New Brunswick during WW1, and there was another ammunition ship in New York that cooked off. There's always an official explanation, like they could prove it, but the book Simple Sabotage says spy agencies like to recruit civilian assets working in war industries who can just do little tiny things that can have big negative effects, like a pinch of sand in hydraulics oil, or oily rags in a pail placed in the corner of a flammable room.
It seems like as much ammunition is being destroyed in catastorphes than fired at the enemy, and some manufacturing facilities in Russia have had fires... Just an interesting aspect of the war directly affecting the home front.
Well, as for the number of shells - we don't know any numbers. There have been just several guesses, estimates published. Some claims had been made. Lacking specifying - what counts as a shell? Only tube artillery? Mortars? Rocket artillery? Beginning from which calibre? 57 mm guns? 60 mm NATO mortars? 120 mm Nona / mortars? Up to 300 mm Smerch? In which percentages these ammo types contribute to the numbers suggested? Oh, tanks shooting HE from covered positions indirect fire should count as well - add 125 mm & 115 mm to the mix.
Comparing with WW II, it shouldn't be forgotten that smaller calibres where used then. 152 mm was army and corps level arty. On regiment level, 76 mm guns where the norm.
So may be it would be easier to compare when giving the amounts of ammo in tons. E.g. the UK depot in Germany "Brachter Wald" had up to 45 kT ammo, which was considered one of the biggest in the West.
Worked with a Russian fellow. Been a couple years since, but he talked about there are many small mom and pop tank and armor, weapons and ammo shops, the Russian procurement system contracts work to. Such as small outfits who install upgrade kits on late T65, T70s and R80s, ot they will do a bunch pf final fit up, or install reactive armor kits, lot of shops employ ladies and babooshkas who do the intricate painstaking and detailing things, he said similar with ammo and small arms components. Makes common sense, used to be similar in the US, I grew up and worked 47 years as a welder, a lot of it in aerospace and .mil contract shops, when we used to manufacture things in this country, small shops are what makes big production possible, its similar in the automotive and truck industry till the tarrif/offshore wealth transfer treaty rackets started.
But whats really critical and you almost never hear of it because being a makere and a craftsman in skilled trade has been so long looked down on now since the 70's, os institutional knowledge of the skilled labor trades, you lose that it requires decades to recreate it. Probably more time now because so many have forgotten what an axe, a shovel, and a Rifle are for, to coin a phrase. Besides the corporate vulturism and class structure begin in the 80's, if you did not go to colledge you where dirt, and they did everything to diminish the labor value of skilled labor, and it was nothing to do with any union stuff, this was flat out comdpiracy across corporate America to set the cheapest pay rates they would all stick with in order to create rea;;y low wages because no longer was there any compotition for say a skilled welder like me, every ridgid tube assembly house, be it GE's engine shop in Hookset NH or PanAm's at JFK, they all paid the same wage, same if you would go to a general metal fab job shop, same with tool and die guys, or precision sheetmetal fabricators, after awhile no one wanted a career in these trades, they paid just above survival wages.
So there is that and believe you me, it matters more than a lot of things, you dont have a skilled workforce you dont make much of anything.
My last welding gig was in a premier rocket and jet engine tube assembly shop, to do weldments they have to have certified fusion welders, i was the only old hand there, lot of years there, one day the big cheese comes asks me how can the company get any skilled welders, nobody shows up to job fares or answers adds. Told him outright, the pay sucks for welders, nobody wants to be one because of it, few weeks later I get a $10 dollar hour raise unasked, shows up in my paycheck, and they ask me to become a weld teacher for the company, train green employees how to weld, but other than a couple old guys like me, they still could not get new welders with a pretty decent payrate increase. They just could not get it. Skilled labor, true cradt labor, its a culture thing and a tradition thing and it was destroyed by globo=peedo to squeeze the last buck out of America, i watched it happen.
That was trhe conversation with this Russian fellow, we where talking about the various reades in each of our countries, and it was clear to me Russia never lost that institutional/time honored traditions in trades and skills and makers crafts, all those people are no more there is no legacy here in the US, but we sure did have it in my lifetime in America, just like Russia still has. The west is Kaput, I could see it in the early 90's coming, for the reasons above. And all the implications.
Russia can never be defeated now, not because of manufacturing might but because of spirit, because its a nation made up of men and woman who not only know what an axe a shovel and a Rifle is for, they are good folks who appreciate what those things are for and more so those who know how to use them. The manufacturing might and capacity follows.
Those ladies putting upgrade kits on tanks and BMPs, they put Love into them, O'm not shitting about it, its love because people like that when they put their labor into it, they do so because, it ain't gonna fail because of me, mentality and mindset.
Its something the satanists despise as nothing else and destroying that in a productive prosperous happy nation is the prime directive. All that you ain't shit unless you go tocalledge was class and culture warfare/pogrom. To wreck what was gear about America.
And you can't turn it back on like lights in a new factory no matter what you do or throw money at. That stuff came with the founding of America. It built this country. It is men in suits who destroyed it after men in a pair of dungarees and wotk boots created it, (woman included too absolutely).
the Lima plant doesn't manufacture Abrams tanks any more, hasn't for close to twenty years. It now only consists of a conversion line, for upgrading older versions. As far as I know, no NATO country still produces MBT's, and they haven't for many years, and there are no production lines left.
Curiously, the one exception might be Greece, which obtained a license to produce part of their Leopard-2 production themselves. They produced only a handful of tanks per year, and I'm not sure when they finished production.
Re Russian armor losses: why should it matter if Oryx (albeit using inflated numbers probably) is counting LDPR losses as "Russian" losses? Both oblasts are now incorporated into the Federation, so they will work from the same "stock" as the RuAF. So whatever tanks got lost in the past year by LDPR _and_ Russia will need to be replenished by the same Russian military-industry complex.
Great insights about the number. Just one question - how do both the sides stack up when it comes to cruise missiles? Will the US be able to produce more cruise missiles than Russia annually?
As far back as 2020, we were kind of pissed because Russian ammo manufacturers had quit exporting their surplus small arms ammo the U.S.
When it came to affordable training ammo, Tula, Wolf and other ammo couldn't be beat even if the steel cases and berdan primers meant we wouldn't reload them.
Looking back on it, looks like Russia was already getting ready to be on war footing and producing ammo in preparation for the SMO against Ukraine if they kept crossing the red line.
This piece inspired me to write my own survey of Russian economic statistics and how they relate to military spending. Thank you for proving that there is a marketplace for deep analysis regarding the war in Ukraine.
you help us understand the real stakes. Massive arm production was decisive for the collapse of the Soviet Union. They had created a military industrial behemoth which hoovered all their resources, but ironies of history, in the long run that policy has proved critical for survival. Putin soon understood this fsct and has pursued to have an strategic balance between tanks and butter from the beginning. The Ukranian bone is resulting much harder than expected to crack to the surprise of both Nato and Russia. The empire's industrial powerhorse is weak now, but its growing by the hour. If Russia doesnt meaningfully speed up before the end of the summer the Z regime will be able to launch major offensives with growing number of Nato forces engaged. The big question is still unanswered. WTF is China going to do about it. They know 200 % they are the next in the list, and still arent able to decisevely support Russia. Are they waiting until the yanks cross the Yalu river?
Simp I'm gob smacked.Just outstanding
"Out of Ammo" - Shortest Tragedy Ever Written
If you are running an arms plant during a war, sending a rail car full of shells directly to the front is a lot easier than sending it to a town, to be potentially loaded on a truck, take to a warehouse and unloaded so someone in another ware house could load a truck to take 1970's shells to a rail car to go to the front.
I expect both is happening, and some empty warehouses are being re filled, some old shells going, some new shells going.
Inventory rotation is good practice anyway, use the old shells before you have to decommission them.
Very well written article simp
You have a talent for this
Factory in Hungary should be interesting.
Nato reports look like snitching on themselves. They Say Russia but it means themselves, they're running low, they're turning to Korea (south), in fact Ukraine is using Iranian ammunition. No evidence of any foreign material aid to Russia, shown yet, they are projecting the appearance of strength and independence, accepting foreign aid would look weak.
North Korea shelled an island heavily, and South Koreans snuck over and investigated, and found a double-digit dud rate in their shells. If there were north Korean shells in Ukraine someone would have posted a picture of a dud by now.
Looking at that American shell factory you posted, the one with the forge - German forges must be multiple times bigger, and they will have to spend a lot of money on energy to heat theirs. While Russia is flaring away excess gas they can't ship or store, German glass factories are shuttering perhaps permanently.
Could you consider an article on the soviet ammunition stockpiles being destroyed across Russia and Europe in the years leading-up to the war? The Himars epiosode shows that they're prime targets desired to hit by both sides. And exactly how has Russia dealt with this problem Nato posed? Did they just have to deliver the shells in small batches so Himars couldn't get them, and that's why the daily number fired reduced?
Fun fact the largest explosion in Canada's history was an ammunition ship off from New Brunswick during WW1, and there was another ammunition ship in New York that cooked off. There's always an official explanation, like they could prove it, but the book Simple Sabotage says spy agencies like to recruit civilian assets working in war industries who can just do little tiny things that can have big negative effects, like a pinch of sand in hydraulics oil, or oily rags in a pail placed in the corner of a flammable room.
It seems like as much ammunition is being destroyed in catastorphes than fired at the enemy, and some manufacturing facilities in Russia have had fires... Just an interesting aspect of the war directly affecting the home front.
Well, as for the number of shells - we don't know any numbers. There have been just several guesses, estimates published. Some claims had been made. Lacking specifying - what counts as a shell? Only tube artillery? Mortars? Rocket artillery? Beginning from which calibre? 57 mm guns? 60 mm NATO mortars? 120 mm Nona / mortars? Up to 300 mm Smerch? In which percentages these ammo types contribute to the numbers suggested? Oh, tanks shooting HE from covered positions indirect fire should count as well - add 125 mm & 115 mm to the mix.
Comparing with WW II, it shouldn't be forgotten that smaller calibres where used then. 152 mm was army and corps level arty. On regiment level, 76 mm guns where the norm.
So may be it would be easier to compare when giving the amounts of ammo in tons. E.g. the UK depot in Germany "Brachter Wald" had up to 45 kT ammo, which was considered one of the biggest in the West.
Worked with a Russian fellow. Been a couple years since, but he talked about there are many small mom and pop tank and armor, weapons and ammo shops, the Russian procurement system contracts work to. Such as small outfits who install upgrade kits on late T65, T70s and R80s, ot they will do a bunch pf final fit up, or install reactive armor kits, lot of shops employ ladies and babooshkas who do the intricate painstaking and detailing things, he said similar with ammo and small arms components. Makes common sense, used to be similar in the US, I grew up and worked 47 years as a welder, a lot of it in aerospace and .mil contract shops, when we used to manufacture things in this country, small shops are what makes big production possible, its similar in the automotive and truck industry till the tarrif/offshore wealth transfer treaty rackets started.
But whats really critical and you almost never hear of it because being a makere and a craftsman in skilled trade has been so long looked down on now since the 70's, os institutional knowledge of the skilled labor trades, you lose that it requires decades to recreate it. Probably more time now because so many have forgotten what an axe, a shovel, and a Rifle are for, to coin a phrase. Besides the corporate vulturism and class structure begin in the 80's, if you did not go to colledge you where dirt, and they did everything to diminish the labor value of skilled labor, and it was nothing to do with any union stuff, this was flat out comdpiracy across corporate America to set the cheapest pay rates they would all stick with in order to create rea;;y low wages because no longer was there any compotition for say a skilled welder like me, every ridgid tube assembly house, be it GE's engine shop in Hookset NH or PanAm's at JFK, they all paid the same wage, same if you would go to a general metal fab job shop, same with tool and die guys, or precision sheetmetal fabricators, after awhile no one wanted a career in these trades, they paid just above survival wages.
So there is that and believe you me, it matters more than a lot of things, you dont have a skilled workforce you dont make much of anything.
My last welding gig was in a premier rocket and jet engine tube assembly shop, to do weldments they have to have certified fusion welders, i was the only old hand there, lot of years there, one day the big cheese comes asks me how can the company get any skilled welders, nobody shows up to job fares or answers adds. Told him outright, the pay sucks for welders, nobody wants to be one because of it, few weeks later I get a $10 dollar hour raise unasked, shows up in my paycheck, and they ask me to become a weld teacher for the company, train green employees how to weld, but other than a couple old guys like me, they still could not get new welders with a pretty decent payrate increase. They just could not get it. Skilled labor, true cradt labor, its a culture thing and a tradition thing and it was destroyed by globo=peedo to squeeze the last buck out of America, i watched it happen.
That was trhe conversation with this Russian fellow, we where talking about the various reades in each of our countries, and it was clear to me Russia never lost that institutional/time honored traditions in trades and skills and makers crafts, all those people are no more there is no legacy here in the US, but we sure did have it in my lifetime in America, just like Russia still has. The west is Kaput, I could see it in the early 90's coming, for the reasons above. And all the implications.
Russia can never be defeated now, not because of manufacturing might but because of spirit, because its a nation made up of men and woman who not only know what an axe a shovel and a Rifle is for, they are good folks who appreciate what those things are for and more so those who know how to use them. The manufacturing might and capacity follows.
Those ladies putting upgrade kits on tanks and BMPs, they put Love into them, O'm not shitting about it, its love because people like that when they put their labor into it, they do so because, it ain't gonna fail because of me, mentality and mindset.
Its something the satanists despise as nothing else and destroying that in a productive prosperous happy nation is the prime directive. All that you ain't shit unless you go tocalledge was class and culture warfare/pogrom. To wreck what was gear about America.
And you can't turn it back on like lights in a new factory no matter what you do or throw money at. That stuff came with the founding of America. It built this country. It is men in suits who destroyed it after men in a pair of dungarees and wotk boots created it, (woman included too absolutely).
Hi,
the Lima plant doesn't manufacture Abrams tanks any more, hasn't for close to twenty years. It now only consists of a conversion line, for upgrading older versions. As far as I know, no NATO country still produces MBT's, and they haven't for many years, and there are no production lines left.
Curiously, the one exception might be Greece, which obtained a license to produce part of their Leopard-2 production themselves. They produced only a handful of tanks per year, and I'm not sure when they finished production.
Re Russian armor losses: why should it matter if Oryx (albeit using inflated numbers probably) is counting LDPR losses as "Russian" losses? Both oblasts are now incorporated into the Federation, so they will work from the same "stock" as the RuAF. So whatever tanks got lost in the past year by LDPR _and_ Russia will need to be replenished by the same Russian military-industry complex.
Good article though, thanks for sharing this!
Very informative - thankyou!
Great insights about the number. Just one question - how do both the sides stack up when it comes to cruise missiles? Will the US be able to produce more cruise missiles than Russia annually?
As far back as 2020, we were kind of pissed because Russian ammo manufacturers had quit exporting their surplus small arms ammo the U.S.
When it came to affordable training ammo, Tula, Wolf and other ammo couldn't be beat even if the steel cases and berdan primers meant we wouldn't reload them.
Looking back on it, looks like Russia was already getting ready to be on war footing and producing ammo in preparation for the SMO against Ukraine if they kept crossing the red line.
This piece inspired me to write my own survey of Russian economic statistics and how they relate to military spending. Thank you for proving that there is a marketplace for deep analysis regarding the war in Ukraine.
Part 1: https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how
Part 2: https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how-9d4
Part 3: https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how-74e