Mainstream publications have fired another salvo of articles this week conveying a cratering outlook for Ukraine. Let’s take a run through the gamut to see just how urgently the tone has shifted, and what it portends. The first piece is from Foreign Affairs—the official journal of the CFR—written by CFR ex-president Richard Haass (
Crazy to me how many people still believe the Russians are “losing” or “desperate.” When you have a preconceived notion it’s easier to stick with it even when the MSM actually (reluctantly) tells you it ain’t so.
Kudos for keeping receipts on WSJ and CFR. I recommend doing the same for substack warmongers like Philips O’Brian and Mick Ryan. Also regret to inform you that Lt Col Cringeman Vindmans twin brother Yevgeny is running for congress to replace CIA Karen Abigail Spangenberger, who is seeking to become Governor of Virginia.
Ukraine never had a chance militarily. You are certain to lose a war of attrition with someone much bigger and stronger than you. The only hope was the sanctions, which I knew were very unlikely to work. As far as I know sanctions, embargoes, and blockades have never caused a regime change. History is large so it may have missed something, but kneeling down to the party who is making your life miserable is contrary to human psychology. Much more often you see countries enduring great suffering in order to get rid of rule by foreigners. Think Viet Nam.
The Ukraine offensive never had a chance either. However Ukraine going on the defensive makes even less sense, if that is possible. The offensive at least catered to the foolish Ukrainian belief that they could win the war. A defensive stance just means endless death with no hope of any benefit. The idea that they could ever get the initiative again is so remote that I don't know that even those Ukrainian patriots would believe that. So better negotiate now and save some lives. You are going to need some men to rebuild the country. Don't wait until they are all dead. Then you will be even more screwed than you already are.
So...why isn't this happening now? The oligarchy has a grift going that is making them superrich. They don't want to give it up. So I suppose it will continue until the military mutinies and gives Russia what it wants -- a neutral Ukraine.
I love how despite the "harshly realistic" tone of the CFR trashbag Foreign Relations mag article they still have to throw their nafo dogs a bone and include the asinine meme of, "Russia still needs to import washing machines in order to use them to make hypersonic missiles."
The entire SMO has been an exercise in the effectiveness of Western propaganda in convincing the public of a fundamentally ridiculous premise--that a much smaller Ukraine could defeat the Russian military, aided by the DPR forces, in an existential war...When has Russia ever lost a war for its survival? And when has the highly patriotic Russian public not supported its leadership?
You may have noted I have an opinion or three. Which, I at least, value highly. When I read this blog? I just shake my head up and down, and say yep, he's right. I think you have nailed the timeline. And the culminating clusterfuck on/about November 2024 is not happenstance. We fucked the Russians. And they will be looking to fuck us at every opportunity. Can you imagine the blithering press right as we get to choose between the doddering pedophile and Trump in his prison jumpsuit? As Russia rolls westward? Fuck me. And of course, as you say, this might all change if there is a coup. But I personally do not see that happening. The core Nazi's that have never spent a day in a trench are entrenched safely in Kiev. (With the Abrams tanks). They will not allow a coup, unless it is someone more Nazi Zany than Zelensky. Russia is going to have to dig those ticks out and throw them in a fire.
Interesting subliminal messaging in the photograph of Putin that The Telegraph decided to use. The positioning of Putin's fingers as he looks west (i.e., to the left) says it all...
I can't see that Russia now has any interest in removal of the Western sanctions. It has redirected its exports to its friends and is not going to now cut them off to supply Europe. At the same time it has invested in import-replacement industry to replace what it previously imported from the West. It is not going to allow imports which damage that new industry and involve some increased reliance on the West which can be later used against it.
Europe made their choice as the corrupt vassals of the US and they are now well and truly stuffed, long term.
I detest the US for using the military men of other nations as proxies to fight and die to advance an American foreign policy goal that has nothing to do with the real needs of the proxy nation.
Ukraine/West trapped themselves in the narrative of "Ukraine winning," "defeating Russia on the battlefield," the silly decrees of "forbidding any negotiations," the 1991 borders, stealing Russia's reserves, Putin's arrest warrant, etc. It will be impossible to get out of this mess without loosing the face, to say the least. Putin was direct about, "the longer this war goes on, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us."
It is heartbreaking - nowhere near strong enough a word- to think of the Ukrainian population’s grief, disillusionment and pain. Will the bloody warmongers be moved by what’s unfolding? Of course not.
If it wasn't so pathetic for all of us, it would be funny. The people running the West have traded all their intelligence, common sense, and patriotism for greed, corruption and power.
Russia sees this very clearly. They have kept their eye on the prize, and it will be independence from the West, never to really need them again.
And it's not as if Ukraine is merely reliant on western military aid, its entire economy has been propped up via large cash infusions without which everything grinds to a halt. If they were at least self-sufficient in this sense the war might go on for years, but this is not the case.
Marvelous compilation of the change of sentiment. Remember we still cannot celebrate until victory on the battlefield is fully materialized with either an unconditional surrender or military solution. I like the last mention that Russia has no interest for a cease fire when for all intents and purposes they are winning and advancing. There will be desperation and confusion demonstrated by the collective west and frustration and final despair. But we must wait for victory
Crazy to me how many people still believe the Russians are “losing” or “desperate.” When you have a preconceived notion it’s easier to stick with it even when the MSM actually (reluctantly) tells you it ain’t so.
Wow, Simpliticus is relentless I can barely keep up with articles but when I see them I'm there. lol
Thank you for your time, well spent on excellent analysis.
Let us pray for the end of the bloodshed western nations continue to spill unto molech & baal.
Kudos for keeping receipts on WSJ and CFR. I recommend doing the same for substack warmongers like Philips O’Brian and Mick Ryan. Also regret to inform you that Lt Col Cringeman Vindmans twin brother Yevgeny is running for congress to replace CIA Karen Abigail Spangenberger, who is seeking to become Governor of Virginia.
Ukraine never had a chance militarily. You are certain to lose a war of attrition with someone much bigger and stronger than you. The only hope was the sanctions, which I knew were very unlikely to work. As far as I know sanctions, embargoes, and blockades have never caused a regime change. History is large so it may have missed something, but kneeling down to the party who is making your life miserable is contrary to human psychology. Much more often you see countries enduring great suffering in order to get rid of rule by foreigners. Think Viet Nam.
The Ukraine offensive never had a chance either. However Ukraine going on the defensive makes even less sense, if that is possible. The offensive at least catered to the foolish Ukrainian belief that they could win the war. A defensive stance just means endless death with no hope of any benefit. The idea that they could ever get the initiative again is so remote that I don't know that even those Ukrainian patriots would believe that. So better negotiate now and save some lives. You are going to need some men to rebuild the country. Don't wait until they are all dead. Then you will be even more screwed than you already are.
So...why isn't this happening now? The oligarchy has a grift going that is making them superrich. They don't want to give it up. So I suppose it will continue until the military mutinies and gives Russia what it wants -- a neutral Ukraine.
I love how despite the "harshly realistic" tone of the CFR trashbag Foreign Relations mag article they still have to throw their nafo dogs a bone and include the asinine meme of, "Russia still needs to import washing machines in order to use them to make hypersonic missiles."
The entire SMO has been an exercise in the effectiveness of Western propaganda in convincing the public of a fundamentally ridiculous premise--that a much smaller Ukraine could defeat the Russian military, aided by the DPR forces, in an existential war...When has Russia ever lost a war for its survival? And when has the highly patriotic Russian public not supported its leadership?
You may have noted I have an opinion or three. Which, I at least, value highly. When I read this blog? I just shake my head up and down, and say yep, he's right. I think you have nailed the timeline. And the culminating clusterfuck on/about November 2024 is not happenstance. We fucked the Russians. And they will be looking to fuck us at every opportunity. Can you imagine the blithering press right as we get to choose between the doddering pedophile and Trump in his prison jumpsuit? As Russia rolls westward? Fuck me. And of course, as you say, this might all change if there is a coup. But I personally do not see that happening. The core Nazi's that have never spent a day in a trench are entrenched safely in Kiev. (With the Abrams tanks). They will not allow a coup, unless it is someone more Nazi Zany than Zelensky. Russia is going to have to dig those ticks out and throw them in a fire.
Interesting subliminal messaging in the photograph of Putin that The Telegraph decided to use. The positioning of Putin's fingers as he looks west (i.e., to the left) says it all...
I can't see that Russia now has any interest in removal of the Western sanctions. It has redirected its exports to its friends and is not going to now cut them off to supply Europe. At the same time it has invested in import-replacement industry to replace what it previously imported from the West. It is not going to allow imports which damage that new industry and involve some increased reliance on the West which can be later used against it.
Europe made their choice as the corrupt vassals of the US and they are now well and truly stuffed, long term.
I detest the US for using the military men of other nations as proxies to fight and die to advance an American foreign policy goal that has nothing to do with the real needs of the proxy nation.
Ukraine/West trapped themselves in the narrative of "Ukraine winning," "defeating Russia on the battlefield," the silly decrees of "forbidding any negotiations," the 1991 borders, stealing Russia's reserves, Putin's arrest warrant, etc. It will be impossible to get out of this mess without loosing the face, to say the least. Putin was direct about, "the longer this war goes on, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us."
It is heartbreaking - nowhere near strong enough a word- to think of the Ukrainian population’s grief, disillusionment and pain. Will the bloody warmongers be moved by what’s unfolding? Of course not.
If it wasn't so pathetic for all of us, it would be funny. The people running the West have traded all their intelligence, common sense, and patriotism for greed, corruption and power.
Russia sees this very clearly. They have kept their eye on the prize, and it will be independence from the West, never to really need them again.
The best revenge, they say, is to live well.
And it's not as if Ukraine is merely reliant on western military aid, its entire economy has been propped up via large cash infusions without which everything grinds to a halt. If they were at least self-sufficient in this sense the war might go on for years, but this is not the case.
Marvelous compilation of the change of sentiment. Remember we still cannot celebrate until victory on the battlefield is fully materialized with either an unconditional surrender or military solution. I like the last mention that Russia has no interest for a cease fire when for all intents and purposes they are winning and advancing. There will be desperation and confusion demonstrated by the collective west and frustration and final despair. But we must wait for victory