Medley report: Israel's rising threat, Ukraine revelations, and the 'Age of Anti-Westphalian DarkMaga'

A medley update a few interesting items today:

Israel

It appears even the Israelis have caught on to what we’ve been reporting here since the start of the “moderate rebel” takeover of Syria. Now it’s dawning on the world what truly comes next in this new great game—the Jerusalem Post article virtually quotes my previous analysis word for word:

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836362

The committee, established by the government, warns that Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions with Israel, possibly escalating into conflict.

Recall I said that Israel thought it had ‘defeated’ Iran but instead inherited a far more dangerous foe, now they are starting to see it:

“The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report states, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability.

Netanyahu likewise validated the mentioned Nagel report’s findings:

Netanyahu addressed the report, stating, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future.”

Most interesting was an adjacent ‘news’ yesterday stating Iran had a secret new deal with Turkey to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah. Keep in mind this is completely uncorroborated and unsourced, and should therefore be taken with a huge grain of salt. But if there’s even a remote glint of truth to this, then Israel’s in deeper schmutz than it had imagined, and would also mean that Iran and Hezbollah have not been weakened at all:

Iran has found a new route to smuggle weapons for Hezbollah. Iranian planes are delivering weapons to Hezbollah via Turkey, Israel must decide whether to strike Iran or the Houthis first.

Recently, planes belonging to the Iranian airline Mahan Air were spotted in the skies of Turkey, indicating cooperation between the Turkish government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, the Middle East Forum writes. “From December 13, 2024 to the end of the year, Mahan Air operated 11 flights between Tehran and Beirut using a fleet of Airbus A340 and Airbus A300B4-622R aircraft. Flight tracking recorded a change in previous routes from Iran to Lebanon,” the report says.

That’s not to even mention the fact that there are claims both Hezbollah and Hamas have restored their strength:

https://www.frontpagemag.com/hezbollah-boasts-its-more-powerful-than-ever-after-biden-ceasefire/

Hamas report:

Is Hamas and their allied armed factions making a comeback in the Gaza strip? An analysis:

According to the Jerusalem Post, Hamas is indeed making a substantial comeback in Gaza by recruiting new forces. Israeli channel 12 states that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) combined have between 20,000 and 23,000 fighters left.

The Jerusalem post reported that the number was closer to around 12,000. The IDF last reported that it had killed between 17,000 and 20,000 Hamas and PIJ fighters during the war and wounded another 14,000-16,000. The fact that the IDF publicly stated in October 2023 that Hama's full forces were 25,000 means that the numbers simply don't add up, as if the IDF did indeed kill 20,000, that would leave just 5,000 still active, and that's not even including the 14,000-16,000 supposedly wounded. -Source

Still think Israel “won” a major victory with Assad’s ouster?

Ukraine

Another new WaPo article gives a shocking statistic:

https://archive.ph/tDk4l

Here’s the blurb gaining traction:

Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front lines. Only last year, Ukraine began drafting men 25 and older; the previous age was 27. Some, including U.S. lawmakers, have been pressing Ukraine to start drafting men as young as 18, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far resisted, concerned about decimating the next generation and hampered by a lack of equipment to arm new troops.

So firstly they confirm Ukraine is not only experiencing a net loss of troops, but one characterized as going “far beyond” what it can sustain. We can assume this means a major net loss per month. Recall WaPo’s last article confirmed 200k total mobilized troops for 2024—this therefore serves as confirmation that Ukraine has lost in excess of 200k troops in 2024.

But the next admission is the big one, and demonstrates how the West is finally coming around to admitting Ukraine’s catastrophic casualty figures:

The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount.

So not only is 400k casualties an undercount, it’s a vast undercount. How vast are we talking? 600k? 800k? 1 million? It seems the official Western narratives lately comes closer and closer to aligning with the Russian MOD figures.

But here’s the real kicker. At the same time, notorious Verkhovna Rada MP Oleksiy Goncharenko made this quite thought-provoking observation—read that very carefully:

Recall just a day ago in the new Lex Fridman interview Zelensky stated the AFU has 980,000 people. Yet Syrsky recently stated Russia has 700,000 men in Ukraine. At the same time, frontline Ukrainian officers constantly grouse Ukraine is outnumbered nearly “5 to 1” in many key areas.

What is going on here?

Goncharenko finally unbosoms this monumental fraud by suggesting these phantom troops are all dead.

—

Trump has now reportedly said he “hopes” to end the Ukraine war in six months. No longer “I will stop the war in 24 hours” but now “I hope to stop it in six months”—quite the downgrade, to say the least, and a big reality check to boot.

In fact, Trump himself appears to now be slowly acclimatizing to the reality that Russia is in the driver’s seat and has no reason to parley with him any time soon.

The situation has gotten so bleak that the dark lord himself, Robert Kagan, has penned a breathless new cry of alarm in the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/01/trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/681228

The piece starts off as dire as can be, predicting the fall of Ukraine within twelve months:

Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

Recall, months ago when the globalist shills gabbed about Ukraine “losing”, they did so in a kind of winking way, still clutching the illusion Ukraine could keep most of its territorial integrity and sovereignty. But now the situation has turned truly catastrophic, read Kagan’s last line again:

It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

That’s it—it’s game over and the elites know it. Ukraine stands to catastrophically collapse with Russia not merely overrunning “the Donbass”, but the entire BlackRock-owned mineral-rich ‘El-Dorado’.

The most fascinating dissonance here demonstrates how these globalists try to have their cake and eat it too—and lord knows Kagan loves his just desserts…

You see, they’ve tried for a long time to sell us on Russia being keen for a ceasefire, yet simultaneously now admit that Ukraine faces total capitulation—how is that possible? A “battered” Russia in desperate need of a “time out” does not sync with a Russia with its foot on Ukraine’s throat, one finishing blow away from swallowing the country whole.

But alas, today’s theme is: they’re finally all coming around. It’s a time of revelations, and a time of throwing caution and duplicity to the wind, because there’s simply no time left—Ukraine’s globalist curators know it’s the final stretch.

Trump appears to sense the intractability of it all, and that America is likely powerless to stop the coming Russian coup de grace. As such, in a preemptive move to fortify his presidential legacy, Trump appears to be building up a reserve of legacy-defining bold acquisitions, the likes of which will overshadow even the “catastrophic” American humiliation in Ukraine.

—

On that note, here’s German journalist Patrik Baab with a poignant capstone on the situation, as he gives an honest ‘Western’ assessment of Ukraine’s remaining chances in this war—but note in particular what he says about NATO and the West as a whole:

German journalist Patrik Baab, one of the few Western media representatives who visited new regions of Russia, shared his thoughts on the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine.

The fact is, the global order is in terminal upheaval, and the Ukraine war stands to be the final catalyst to upend the entire system once and for all. In conjunction with Trump’s total revocation of European sovereignty, not to say significance, the war’s conclusion is on course to rewrite Europe and America’s relationship for all time—for good or ill.

It’s a grand new birthing period, as I alluded to in the most recent piece. But there are two other commentators who’ve bottled the defining ethos of this moment in their own noteworthy ways that I’d like to share as a concluding sentiment. Watch the Trump video posted above, then read these below:

And the final longer one is worth the read, coming by way of the ever-incisive RWA (Russians With Attitude):

On American expansionism.

The incoming administration seems to have a more realistic image of the state of American hegemonial decline and wants to take proactive steps to try to counteract and reverse it, breathing new life into the American Global Empire.

In this context, it makes perfect sense for the US to increase pressure on its vassals. I am not using the term in a pejorative sense. The US does not have “allies” in the traditional meaning of the word. It has vassals with different levels of feudal obligations and elite integration, and different tasks. Extracting more value from vassals -- whether through tariffs, increased NATO budgets, meddling in local politics or potential territorial concessions -- is an absolutely logical step in cementing and renewing America's position as overlord of its sphere.

There are three ways America's European vassals can react to this: look for protection outside of the sphere, try to make themselves more useful/necessary & advance integration, or take it on the face. Were we in, I don't know, the 19th century, Denmark would just ask Russia for military support in Greenland in exchange for mild economic concessions and never worry again. As it is, the Royal Danish Army does not have any artillery anymore because they gave it all away for the purpose of firing cluster ammunition at Russian children in Donetsk. They did not receive anything in return for that and it did not help any Danish purpose. They cannot defend themselves if push comes to shove and they can't ask anybody to help because most of their fellow vassals have done the same. The most likely option is that they'll just take it on the face. Not just for pragmatic reasons, but also because they genuinely enjoy being dommed geopolitically.

America has no obligation to treat its vassals better. I've seen Danish people complain on here about supporting the US after 9/11, participating in the American wars in the Middle East, etc. That's ridiculous. You know how a colony is rewarded for sending troops to its overlord's wars? It doesn't get beaten. That's the reward for a lackey. Any person who takes any of the NATO democracy liberalism pilpul seriously is just not a serious person, it was never real, it was always just voluntary submission to be absolved from existing in History.

The world that existed in 1991-2022 does not exist anymore. It's not coming back. You can just invade your neighbor. You can just fire missiles at international shipping lanes. You can just threaten to annex members of your military alliance. “You can just do things”, as the techbros like to say. The mirage of a post-historical order that only has to be policed from time to time but is never seriously challenged has disappeared. What did you think canceling the End of History meant? Vibes? Papers? Essays? It's not pleasant to be suddenly confronted with all of the above. It's not pleasant to have to admit to yourself that your existence was a coddled theme park that is existentially dependent on the relative position of someone else and how he feels about that relative position. America's vassals WILL have to confront this state of things and make hard decisions about their future. This means reckoning with their geopolitical impotence and either embracing dependency with open eyes or seeking pathways to autonomy that will inevitably involve risk, sacrifice, and a recalibration of their national priorities.

The era of coasting on borrowed security and ideological rhetoric is over. What lies ahead is a world where historical agency must be reclaimed or forever relinquished, and for many, the question may not be whether they are ready to make that leap, but whether they even remember how. America has now understood this -- and is mentally preparing to switch back to the cold logic that comes with actual History. The times, they are a-changin'.

---

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

---