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Marching Toward a Night of the Long Knives in Ukraine
The stakes rise as Ukraine’s internal situation undergoes major turmoil, with opposing factions now openly clashing for power in an increasingly deadly way.
Zaluzhny’s personal right hand man was blown up by a grenade delivered to him via birthday present. Official explanations seek to downplay it as an innocent ‘accident.’ It was the same excuse of ‘accidental horseplay’ implied by Putin to have been responsible for Prigozhin’s death. Naturally, both explanations are 100% phony.
It was surprising to see how many of the gullible fell for it. There are no ‘coincidences’ in the great game of power politics, especially one centered on as corrupt a state, and insidious a political class, as that of Ukraine.
The timing is far too suspicious. First Zaluzhny releases a highly ‘troubling’ and apparently unsanctioned article for The Economist, which causes Zelensky to immediately censure him. Then Zelensky himself makes several high-stakes moves, such as doing a 180 turn and canceling elections, a clear signal to his ‘Western partners’ that he’s likely going rogue.
But let’s back up a moment. Zelensky has been extremely “disappointed” with Western partners, if you’ll recall. This stems all the way back to the NATO Vilnius summit where he came off looking like a beggar, was reprimanded by his own allies for going “too overboard” in his heavy-handed demands, and then left empty handed without any of the big ticket promises fulfilled—including the biggest of all: direct NATO membership.
Now, there have been increasing rumors of major friction between Zelensky and the general staff, echoing Bakhmut intrigues. Zaluzhny wanted to retreat from Avdeevka, viewing the meatgrinder as a pointless drain on manpower.
But recall, Zaluzhny can only view things from a military standpoint: black and white, A or B perspective of military logic: this meatgrinder is exterminating our troops so it must be bad, we must pull back.
Zelensky’s job is the overall picture—perception management, the health of public sentiment both domestic and—even more importantly—that of allied nations. He knows pulling back from Avdeevka would be a final blow to Ukraine’s credibility of ever standing any chance of defeating Russia. He knows aid would dry up and allies would pull the plug—so he’s forced to use a heavy hand.
Zaluzhny went around his boss’s back and made his own sneaky appeal to the West with his article—some believing it to be a secret cry for help, meant to expose the situation’s severity, which Zelensky himself carefully shields. This is what infuriated Zelensky.
Now, given rumors that Zaluzhny was one of the potential presidential candidates with the strongest backing and largest popularity, outside Zelensky himself, it’s thought that Zelensky needed to send a sharp message to bring Zaluzhny back in line. The assassination of his personal aide was the “horse head in the bed” moment, for those who’ve seen Godfather.
There has been a host of recent rumors that, absent new Western pledges of aid, Zelensky was going to transition the whole operation into some form of epochal ‘Plan B’ consisting of several new maximalist initiatives, such as:
Cancellation of elections
Complete overhaul of the Ukrainian high command and general staff
A total reorientation of Ukrainian military strategy
Full societal mobilization to tap the final remaining and largest untapped reserve of bodies: exempted university students
He’s already completed #1. As for #2, it was reported days ago that Zelensky just fired the head of the entire Ukrainian special forces, General Khorenko, who also happened to be one of Zaluzhny’s top deputies of his inner council.
Gateway Pundit writes:
The public censure of Zaluzhny was not the only reaction to his words. A day before, the president’s office replaced one of the commander’s top deputies – the head of special operations forces, General Khorenko.
“The emerging fissure between the general and the president comes as Ukraine is struggling in its war effort, militarily and diplomatically. Its operations along the roughly 600-mile-long trench line have failed to produce any advances, while resulting in high casualties on both sides, and Ukraine is facing intensified Russian attacks in the East. At the same time, skepticism about Ukraine aid has increased in some European capitals and among members of the Republican Party in the United States.”
You think it’s a “coincidence” that two of Zaluzhny’s very top deputies were erased literally days apart, one by firing, the other by grenade?
The following unsourced report backs this:
☄️☄️☄️According to my information, Zelensky will completely change the composition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the coming months. Almost all the people of Zaluzhny will be removed from their positions. Oleshchuk, Bargilevich, Tarnavsky, Shaptala and many others☄️☄️☄️
Then there was the post from Ukrainian parliament member Volodymyr Ariev which outright said that the president’s office has issued a decree to dismiss Zaluzhny from his Commander-in-Chief position:
However, he quickly retracted the statement:
Whether it’s true or not, there are clearly major intrigues and upheavals surging through Ukrainian political ranks.
New Ukrainian Defense Minister (who replaced Reznikov) also issued this statement:
If that wasn’t bad enough, Russian old guard, silovik, and intelligence chief Patrushev came out swinging with the claim that there are people inside Kiev ready to ‘take power’:
Recall it’s been one of my longest running predictions that the final end would likely come by way of amnesty deals made between usurpers inside Kiev and Russian intelligence handlers, at a point when Ukraine was nearing collapse.
That’s because this is a natural, methodical conclusion which happens all the time in these sort of conflicts. The closer things get to an end, the more rats flee the sinking ship and people who’ve never held true loyalties become willing to switch sides for the right amnesty deal, out of fear or even for financial remuneration, which Russian intel agencies can easily promise them; that’s their job during such critical transition periods, after all. This is standard end-game shadow work—the U.S. did it in Iraq, amongst other places.
Patrushev’s insinuating article states:
These forces are already “standing in the wings” and are ready to take power when the time is right, the former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) chief said, without elaborating who exactly he may be referring to.
Now as for #4 from above, regarding mobilization, this note came in from the Rezident_UA channel:
"Our sources from the OP said that Zelensky began to discuss the format of general mobilization, when a million Ukrainians could be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The President is ready to take extreme measures and allow the conscription of students over 20 years of age."
So what can we summarize about all this internecine strife?
It’s clear that Ukraine is being pulled apart in two separate directions, with factions forming around each. Zelensky’s insider gang represents the most hardened of the deepstate neocon lineage, tied directly to globalist interests.
For instance, many believe that Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s head of the presidential office, is the man who really runs the country and was responsible for the “hit” on Zaluzhny’s aide. Yermak is the ‘gray eminence’ always shadowing Zelensky, who cowers before him like a chastened student. Many will remember the infamous video that made it clear who tucks whom into bed:
In fact in an article from only a couple months ago, Politico seemed to be laying the groundwork of who would take control if Zelensky’s presidential tenure happened to suffer an ‘unscheduled rapid disassembly’:
The governing council would most likely consist of Stefanchuk as the figurehead, along with Andrii Yermak, the former movie producer and lawyer who’s the head of the office of the president, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Valery Zaluzhny would remain as the country’s top general.
Out of the four listed above, Reznikov is already gone, and Stefanchuk is listed as just a “figurehead.”
Just today, on his official Twitter account Yermak, who is also Jewish, announced his meeting with George Soros’ son, who now runs the Soros empire:
“They talked a lot about Ukraine, the restoration of our state, victory over Russia, the return of Ukrainian children who were kidnapped by Russia and the project of President Vladimir Zelensky Bring Kids Back UA. I am very grateful to my friend Alexander Soros for his vision and confidence in Ukraine, in our people. Also discussed joint work on the seizure of Russian assets and their further transfer for the restoration of Ukraine,” the head of the OP described the meeting.
He explained the meeting revolved around ‘investments’ in Ukraine’s infrastructure, economy, and future—i.e. selling it off to the criminal globalist cabal.
The point of all this is to highlight the types of factions forming.
Zaluzhny appears to be outside of that deeply entrenched circle, and may be starting to represent an increasingly dangerous challenge to their hold on power, particularly with the nearing elections—now ostensibly nixed.
Zelensky’s sudden cancellation of elections, the reshuffling of staff and assassination of Zaluzhny’s top aide are all connected events, particularly given that they happened a mere day apart.
Lastly, today Arestovich published this new, cutting, and extremely pertinent appeal on his official Twitter account, addressed to Zelensky:
- An extreme appeal to the President’s sanity.
- Vladimir Alexandrovich. (ed: Zelensky)
The key to the situation is not those who criticize you.
It is in your hands.
The key to changing the position of the opposition, the position of the Americans, the position of the whole world, the position of the army and society.
The boat is rocked not by those who criticize you and call for elections, but by you yourself - with your ineffective policies, which undermine people's faith in victory, the mood in the army, and the trust of partners and allies.
It was not the opposition who removed the Commander of the Special Forces Khorenko, in a way that insults the military honor of every serviceman.
The key is changing your own policies to be more effective.
Much more effective than now.
The question of American assistance, the question of preventing coercion into negotiations with Putin, the question of victory is in your hands.
Change, otherwise it won’t matter who calls for what:
- to elections or to refusal of elections.
There will be no choice left.
And don't make the last mistake.
Don't touch Zaluzhny.
Read that very carefully. He warns: you have one last chance, and don’t make that final mistake, touching Zaluzhny. This is a dire warning. Arestovich is quietly revealing here that the hit on Zaluzhny’s aide was in fact a message from Zelensky that “Zaluzhny is next.” And Arestovich is trying to talk him down from that ledge, saying “don’t do it, or it will be your final fatal mistake.”
This is end game power politics at its finest, the Ukrainian soap opera, ballad and thriller in one. Tune in for the upcoming fireworks of the grand climactic finale—the big show!
Zelensky is now trying every possible strategy in getting new funds:
Zaluzhny makes an address to the nation following his aide’s untimely ‘grenade accident’:
(For those that might’ve missed it—yes, it’s a DeepFake parody)
New Russian Army recruitment ad:
A few last sundry items:
Folks, to be honest, I had begun to do a detailed writeup of the Russian Askold ship that was hit in the Kerch docks. But halfway through it I lost interest, saying to myself: Who cares? It really makes little difference, and to add another 3-5k word magnum opus detailing every little aspect seems pointless for something that is ultimately inconsequential to the war.
Yes, Ukraine will continue their small occasional semi-successes on asymmetric targets with little relevance to the war effort. At the end of the day, Ukraine has managed to fully kill something like 2 real ships in the nearly 2 years of the war: that being the Moskva, and the Saratov landing ship hit in Berdiansk port last year.
That’s it. Two ships.
They hit several more but they were repaired and restored, like for instance the Olenegorsky Gornyat landing ship, which was the one that had the huge gash in its hull from a naval drone strike and was already seen sailing fully patched up. And this isn’t counting smaller vessels like a few ‘Raptor’ boats that were destroyed; but these are small attack craft with a crew of a few people, hardly counting as real ships.
The Minsk and Rostov-on-Don (Kilo Class submarine) that were hit last month are both undergoing repairs and neither is “lost”.
So, once again, in almost 2 years there have been 2 lost ships. Maybe this new hit on the Askold corvette could be the third but I personally still think it can be restored—after all, it’s floating, not listing in any way, and therefore still has a sound hull above the water line.
The Ukrainian Navy, on the other hand? It pretty much doesn’t exist. It’s been completely sunk in the opening of the war.
Of course with recency bias it’s going to look like Ukraine is “doing well” in the naval war when they literally have nothing left to hit so Russia can’t objectively score any “perception” points by destroying their assets which were already destroyed long ago.
That being said, there are a few essential takeaways and general principles from the situation that I’ll incorporate next time into the wider strategic analysis, which apply to other key aspects.
Ultimately though it shows the following conclusion:
The bare few crucial systems Ukraine has left are being used for purposes of media ‘perception’, i.e. achieving flashy morale-boosting hits on strategically insignificant targets. This is a waste that further shows Ukraine is not serious about winning the actual war, but is merely trying to desperately stay afloat by signaling superficial ‘success’ to their allies.
Instead of hitting critical munitions stock, Russian C2/C3 nodes in the operational rear, and other significant logistics points, they chose to waste their precious high-tech wunderwaffe missiles on an out-of-the-way repair base housing an out of service ship whose assets do not even contribute to the SMO.
The fact that the obscure Zaliv ship repair yard was chosen, rather than, for instance, the Kerch Bridge itself nearby, means that they still don’t like their chances at hitting actual strategically significant targets and continue to rely on remote areas that aren’t as powerfully covered by AD.
It’s still a fairly significant strike, don’t get me wrong—the ship was a state of the art and powerful corvette. Not significant to the SMO but simply ‘painful’ in its own way. But it just has no effect on the war whatsoever.
A few sundry items:
I had forgotten to post this last time, but Ukraine released their first ever video of the launch of ATACMS missiles during the strike a while back:
The first photo of the M1A1 Abrams in Ukraine has appeared as well, looking already nearly bogged down in the mud:
They reportedly received around 31 of these.
Last time I had shared how some Russian tank variants are starting to come off the production line factory-equipped with the new anti-drone jammers. Now the same is being planned for BMP-3s. Here’s a freshly delivered batch straight from Kurganmashzavod with an explanation:
Ukrainian soldier gives a reminder of the AFU’s losses on other fronts. Everyone talks about Avdeevka, he says, but they’ve forgotten about Marinka—and many others (slight 18+ warning):
The fact is, most people have forgotten how large the losses really are, which the AFU suffers daily in all other directions. For instance, here’s a sampling of the past two days of numbers from the Russian MOD broken down specifically by region:
November 6, 2023:
November 7, 2023:
Granted, these are likely total calculated casualties, including wounded, not purely KIA. But even still, that’s likely at least 200-300 per day killed, even if it’s a bit exaggerated or overcounted somehow.
And speaking of overcounting, a great new debunking of Oryx’s infamous ‘Russian losses’ has been carried out:
The chief takeaway?
You can read the full thread for the details, but it’s interesting to note how many of the top pro-UA accounts, including Oryx, all recently quit as if by coordinated action:
Many have put forth the idea, not without merit, that these top amplified UA accounts were all on the payroll—and now that the Ukraine ship is sinking, they’ve been cut loose.
Mobilization continues ramping up in coercion factor in Ukraine:
🚨‼️ CRAZY: In Odessa the military stopped a bus and took all men from up to 65 years.
➡️ Mobilisation gets out of hand.
(This is reported by the biggest TG channel of Odessa)
Remember all the arguments about counterbattery warfare—Russia destroyed 2 counterbattery radars in a single day today:
Destruction of the AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by Russian Lancet
Lastly, I want to say: a big thank you to all. After my last appeal, you came through in a big way and gifted me with a veritable heaping helping of new subscriptions, more than making up for that dastardly plague of churn loss. So thank you again—it’s good to know we can keep the show on the road without hitch or catch.
Writing is a very sensitive pursuit because it uses that most ungovernable of faculties—the mind. So to have the peace of mind, and serenity of thought, born of the knowledge that everything is on the up and up on the business side of things, is quite energizing and productively invigorating to the work.
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