The irruption in Israel caught many of us off guard. But to some extents it was a long-expected flashpoint escalation meant to begin the denouement of the Ukrainian conflict, by taking heat off from it. There are many circulating accounts of all the things that seem “off” about Hamas’ attack, so I won’t recount every single point here as most of you have likely read them in multiple places; things like the very implausible breach of Israel’s high tech gates and defenses, to the unprecedented failures of Mossad and Shin Bet, to Netanyahu’s eerily scripted invocation of ‘Pearl Harbor’, which is very telling considering that Pearl Harbor was also a falseflag attack with the purpose of bringing the U.S. into WW2.
I guarantee you that after this 'war' is over and thousands of Palestinians have been bombed into the stone age that someone way down on the food chain will be blamed and have to take the fall for this unprecedented failure of intelligence and unheard of lack of defense at the border.
Fortunately for Netanyahu it solidified his coalition in the government around him and for Biden it provides a halfway decent exit strategy for what's left of the proxy war in Ukraine.
In this case I heavily disagree. This does not benefit the US in any way.
This almost guarantees that most Arab states will remain hostile to Israel for years to come and that Israel will take incur heavy costs because they are politically obligated to invade Gaza.
Yes, this helps Netanyahu domestically, but the last thing the US needs right now is another theater to worry about.
Much easier explanation is that US assets were too focused on Ukraine and missed something and that the Israelis aren't as good as advertised which was visible back in 2006.
Posted elsewhere, but will post here as well. It is difficult to believe that Hamas (I assume they are not suicidal) did this audacious stuff without it being part of a larger plan agreed to among Israel's enemies--the biggies being Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Even without a coordinated plan, if Israel goes all in with the elimination of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, I don't see how Hezbollah stays out. And if Hezbollah goes in, with their incredible arsenal in untouchable North Korean engineered tunnels, and their battle-hardened veterans of fighting in Syria, Israel loses. Not a bloody nose like 2006, but a broken neck. All out war spells the end for Israel. As the Zionist entity collapses, an attack on Iran is possible. Then the Straight of Hormuz closes, oil goes crazy, and insurance derivatives collapse the Western economies. What mess. As a side note, even if not another shot is fired, Israel is finished. With this fiasco, we will see emigration out of Israel turn into a stampede. Most who can bail, will bail. Viola, demographic self-erasure. I simply don't see how Israel--or the West for that matter--benefits in any serious way.
I just saw Canada's Ambassador to the UN, Bob Rae, state that he had evidence Iran was behind the "attack" (psyop). So his colleagues in Israel and the US told him this was going to be the official narrative.
There is another, I would say more obvious angle. The Palestinian 'question' has become more and more remote in the Arab world. Back in the 80's the 'liberation' of Palestine was something taught in schools across the Gulf countries and levant; now hardly anything. Israeli tourists pack malls in Dubai, beaches in Egypt, and generally the bulk of the Arab world is moving on
The Palestinians living in Arab countries are very much 2nd class citizens. They do not hold passports; they have "Identity Papers", they are restricted in many ways, mirroring their lives in the territories in a tragic form of irony
The Iranians do not benefit at all from such an attack. They have just expended a lot of time and effort on a rapprochement with he Saudis. They have effective control of Iraq. They are practically allied with Russia. I reckon the "blame Iran" is pure opportunism, like how Iraq was blamed for 9/11, total bullshit.
My sense is that this is what it looks like - Hamas, after decades of having their teeth kicked in, got a shot in. Yes, I do believe the mighty Mossad got caught with its pants down, and the IDF hasn't had a proper engagement since 2006, and they got their noses bloodied in that one too. It happens. The Israelis got comfortable behind their walls. Even if there was intel that this was going to happen - its implausible. What does Hamas gain? Yes maybe they pull the IDF into a ground war in Gaza and force a lot of casualties but there is no doubt in my mind, not a shred, that in 2024 the organization known as Hamas will cease to exist for all intents and purposes.
I assume Hamas have a plan and Iran has helped map it out. I assume Hamas have a substantial weapons cache in Gaza. Spread those hostages out all over Gaza and it makes Israel's Air Strike capacity potentially comprimised-you never know when an air strike is gonna kill an Israeli. Get Israel into a land war in Gaza and bleed 'em out long term. If Hezbohla get into the action-having been hardened in the Syria conflict-the Israel is in for a bare knuckled bar fight. It has not won a war since 82.
Given the amount of surveillance, and array of informers that Israel has in the area, this was undoubtedly some kind of false flag, triggered by the attack on the Al-Aqsa mosque...The Pentagon was undoubtedly involved, and just happened to have a carrier group available...Interesting that the Pentagon has no more arms available for Ukraine, but has them available for Israel....
As I've stressed in my two substack article related to Al-Aqsa Flood, the underlying context is crucial for understanding why and why now. IMO, Alastair Crooke has the goods on this as he's a very old timer with the Palestine conflict and has continually written on it while still following the bigger game in Ukraine. IMO, if you haven't read Crooke, you don't know the multiple whys.
Answers to your poll questions:
1. Neither. The Zionists staged a provocation and have said their aim is to eliminate it and all Palestinians. It was time for a reaction to pull the lanyard on their well rehearsed plan. Hamas has 500,000 people it can put under arms and still have a 200,000 reserve.
2. The conflict will be long and drawn out and is dependent on other participants, West Bank for example. The Zionists stated almost immediately that they didn't want war with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah merely shelled three points within occupied Lebanon and did no more. Netanyahu has already been saddled with the blame by Zionist media.
The two “Who’s behind it?” choices are not mutually exclusive. A bit like the outbreak of WWI. Everyone concerned had an itch screaming to be scratched.
Answer to the first question depends on the answer to the following:
Did the intelligence agencies know about this and let it happen or were they taken by surprise?
If Yes, then US/Israel is behind it (even if they didn’t plan it) accepting initial losses for all the reasons you gave.
If No, then Iran/The Rest for all the reasons you gave.
One thing to note, the best plans can be laid to waste as we saw with Ukraine. Meaning, even if this is planned by US/Israel it might very well blow up in their faces.
I wrote this recently in the comments of your last read:
“I have been thinking for a while that the best way for the uniparty to disentangle itself from this fiasco was to miraculously discover that shipments of arms that made it to Ukraine were corruptly diverted to Africa. Both parties could save face and stop the military support.
Now with new developments in Israel and the West Bank, it would solve multiple problems that somehow Hamas received missing billions in dollars and arms via corrupt Ukes (ie made their way directly by 3 letter US agencies).”
Wouldn’t Occam’s razor point to this being the beginning of the end for Western backing on Ukraine?
Unbelievable, who in the right mind would call this situation “surprised” action???
I guarantee you that after this 'war' is over and thousands of Palestinians have been bombed into the stone age that someone way down on the food chain will be blamed and have to take the fall for this unprecedented failure of intelligence and unheard of lack of defense at the border.
Fortunately for Netanyahu it solidified his coalition in the government around him and for Biden it provides a halfway decent exit strategy for what's left of the proxy war in Ukraine.
In this case I heavily disagree. This does not benefit the US in any way.
This almost guarantees that most Arab states will remain hostile to Israel for years to come and that Israel will take incur heavy costs because they are politically obligated to invade Gaza.
Yes, this helps Netanyahu domestically, but the last thing the US needs right now is another theater to worry about.
Much easier explanation is that US assets were too focused on Ukraine and missed something and that the Israelis aren't as good as advertised which was visible back in 2006.
Posted elsewhere, but will post here as well. It is difficult to believe that Hamas (I assume they are not suicidal) did this audacious stuff without it being part of a larger plan agreed to among Israel's enemies--the biggies being Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Even without a coordinated plan, if Israel goes all in with the elimination of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, I don't see how Hezbollah stays out. And if Hezbollah goes in, with their incredible arsenal in untouchable North Korean engineered tunnels, and their battle-hardened veterans of fighting in Syria, Israel loses. Not a bloody nose like 2006, but a broken neck. All out war spells the end for Israel. As the Zionist entity collapses, an attack on Iran is possible. Then the Straight of Hormuz closes, oil goes crazy, and insurance derivatives collapse the Western economies. What mess. As a side note, even if not another shot is fired, Israel is finished. With this fiasco, we will see emigration out of Israel turn into a stampede. Most who can bail, will bail. Viola, demographic self-erasure. I simply don't see how Israel--or the West for that matter--benefits in any serious way.
Bingo...
I just saw Canada's Ambassador to the UN, Bob Rae, state that he had evidence Iran was behind the "attack" (psyop). So his colleagues in Israel and the US told him this was going to be the official narrative.
There is another, I would say more obvious angle. The Palestinian 'question' has become more and more remote in the Arab world. Back in the 80's the 'liberation' of Palestine was something taught in schools across the Gulf countries and levant; now hardly anything. Israeli tourists pack malls in Dubai, beaches in Egypt, and generally the bulk of the Arab world is moving on
The Palestinians living in Arab countries are very much 2nd class citizens. They do not hold passports; they have "Identity Papers", they are restricted in many ways, mirroring their lives in the territories in a tragic form of irony
The Iranians do not benefit at all from such an attack. They have just expended a lot of time and effort on a rapprochement with he Saudis. They have effective control of Iraq. They are practically allied with Russia. I reckon the "blame Iran" is pure opportunism, like how Iraq was blamed for 9/11, total bullshit.
My sense is that this is what it looks like - Hamas, after decades of having their teeth kicked in, got a shot in. Yes, I do believe the mighty Mossad got caught with its pants down, and the IDF hasn't had a proper engagement since 2006, and they got their noses bloodied in that one too. It happens. The Israelis got comfortable behind their walls. Even if there was intel that this was going to happen - its implausible. What does Hamas gain? Yes maybe they pull the IDF into a ground war in Gaza and force a lot of casualties but there is no doubt in my mind, not a shred, that in 2024 the organization known as Hamas will cease to exist for all intents and purposes.
I assume Hamas have a plan and Iran has helped map it out. I assume Hamas have a substantial weapons cache in Gaza. Spread those hostages out all over Gaza and it makes Israel's Air Strike capacity potentially comprimised-you never know when an air strike is gonna kill an Israeli. Get Israel into a land war in Gaza and bleed 'em out long term. If Hezbohla get into the action-having been hardened in the Syria conflict-the Israel is in for a bare knuckled bar fight. It has not won a war since 82.
Given the amount of surveillance, and array of informers that Israel has in the area, this was undoubtedly some kind of false flag, triggered by the attack on the Al-Aqsa mosque...The Pentagon was undoubtedly involved, and just happened to have a carrier group available...Interesting that the Pentagon has no more arms available for Ukraine, but has them available for Israel....
Gotta be honest, I've never heard of Pearl Harbor being called a "false flag" before. Could you explain this in greater detail?
As I've stressed in my two substack article related to Al-Aqsa Flood, the underlying context is crucial for understanding why and why now. IMO, Alastair Crooke has the goods on this as he's a very old timer with the Palestine conflict and has continually written on it while still following the bigger game in Ukraine. IMO, if you haven't read Crooke, you don't know the multiple whys.
Answers to your poll questions:
1. Neither. The Zionists staged a provocation and have said their aim is to eliminate it and all Palestinians. It was time for a reaction to pull the lanyard on their well rehearsed plan. Hamas has 500,000 people it can put under arms and still have a 200,000 reserve.
2. The conflict will be long and drawn out and is dependent on other participants, West Bank for example. The Zionists stated almost immediately that they didn't want war with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah merely shelled three points within occupied Lebanon and did no more. Netanyahu has already been saddled with the blame by Zionist media.
Again, read Crooke!!!
The two “Who’s behind it?” choices are not mutually exclusive. A bit like the outbreak of WWI. Everyone concerned had an itch screaming to be scratched.
Answer to the first question depends on the answer to the following:
Did the intelligence agencies know about this and let it happen or were they taken by surprise?
If Yes, then US/Israel is behind it (even if they didn’t plan it) accepting initial losses for all the reasons you gave.
If No, then Iran/The Rest for all the reasons you gave.
One thing to note, the best plans can be laid to waste as we saw with Ukraine. Meaning, even if this is planned by US/Israel it might very well blow up in their faces.
Gaza is bigger than Bakhmut and the IDF is not Wagner. Israel will pay their pound of flesh by invading Gaza
'Madness is however an affliction which in war carries with it the advantage of SURPRISE.'
I wrote this recently in the comments of your last read:
“I have been thinking for a while that the best way for the uniparty to disentangle itself from this fiasco was to miraculously discover that shipments of arms that made it to Ukraine were corruptly diverted to Africa. Both parties could save face and stop the military support.
Now with new developments in Israel and the West Bank, it would solve multiple problems that somehow Hamas received missing billions in dollars and arms via corrupt Ukes (ie made their way directly by 3 letter US agencies).”
Wouldn’t Occam’s razor point to this being the beginning of the end for Western backing on Ukraine?