Today is the first day we can probably say the offensive has truly begun in the sense that Ukraine has launched large maneuver attacks in exactly the primary directions long-predicted as being at the heart of the offensive. Yesterday’s push much farther east near Velyka Novosilka had long been forecasted as the ‘diversionary’ direction, and today they struck the true direction right under Orekhov where for a long time their main force buildup was observed by Russian recon/intel units.
Russian forces may well regard Kiev's offensive action as an opportunity to accelerate attrition of Ukrainian/NATO military resources given abundant opportunities to destroy exposed Ukrainian equipment and personnel. Much easier to engage advancing enemy units than to root entrenched troops out of trenches and concrete residential buildings. And engaging Ukrainian forces in the open reduces damage to civilian infrastructure. All good given Russia's consistently elucidated objectives which include Kiev's demilitarization and minimization of harm to civilians and infrastructure.
The only good point I can find in this extended war is that I have discovered great writers who provide me videos so that I don't have to extend my time by finding them. Thanks.
Sidenote: The video of a drone attacking a single tank used the band Seether as its soundtrack. They're from my country but became American (understandable because our rock culture died within 10 years of the ANC taking power). The interesting point is that their name here was Saron Gas. The American record label never liked that, especially with the sarin gas attack in Tokyo, so it was changed. Thereafter, sadly, a South African story became very American with celebrity break-ups, drug addiction and suicide. Been added to a Russian war video is a twist. Very sad, very rock 'n roll.
Desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine offensive is being stoned by Russia, who had 9 months to prepare for it, and knew exactly where it would take place. Ukraine lost most of 2 brigades in past two days and only has 10 new strike brigades left, as far as I know. That is 40,000. Even if they have 80,000, the Russians have 2X the men and 10X the firepower, and total air superiority. Ukraine was forced into this offensive. From what I hear today, Ukraine threw a lot of meat into the grinder and were cooked into meatloaf. Russia also has plenty of weapon it will be rolling out that it has not yet used. Wouldn't the next week not be a fine time for Russia to attack from the north? Grind and pulverize. Deliver a bone-crushing defeat, and exorcise the devil from these Nazi demons.
Terrible, to think the next 2 weeks tens of thousands lives, millions of families, eviscerated all too casually.
The similarities of the current war to the Ukranian Soviet war are uncanny. Zelensky is Symon Petliura reincarnated, and his western backers are all the same with some new faces.
It seems a coup is very possible if the offensive fails, more so if it's catastrophic. But Zelensky will flee just as the late Petilura, they all do. Maybe to Germany or Poland.
WOW, just WOW. I have to order a doordash meal, snack and take this all in. I follow a lot of telegram channels and threads, but to put it down like this is a cerebral masterpiece. Love your threads. I will start to perhaps make my very first topic in near future, pending work obligations. Appreciate your hard work
The offensive began the day Bakhmut fell and Ukraine crossed the border towards Belgorod. Feints are part of an attack.
The dam is a frightening develop, a long-term detriment to Ukraine and (more so) Russia. It seems to emphasise what was obvious at the beginning, that the only way to prevent a second NATO war is if Russia occupied everything east of the Dnieper. I don't know if that's plausible but natural barriers have made warmongers hesitate through history. Of course, no contextual logic mitigates the pain that would occur to millions of normal people ensnared by geopolitical neoliberalism.
armor moving at night is especially dangerous to dismounted infantry..... or the driver overloaded using thermal optics to avoid running over/into friendlies.
driving a tank/ifv. as well as a rotary aircraft, using night optics requires a lot of practice... rf have far more training!
the french 'tank' is wheeled! mobility challenged!
looks like the range of rf helicopter weapons exceed dismounted stinger capability or they feared sending stinger squad to front..... or the kit is sold off black market.
we'll see how kluged weapons, used by lightly trained operators, using foreign combat doctrine work.
The tally from the first day seems to be in favor of Russia, but we'll see in the coming days to see what other cards Ukraine has in the hand, like pulling troops from other fronts or the famed NATO-trained brigades.
I'm personally waiting for the Woke Company PMC, most prominent units being the Sapphos Squad and the New Sacred Band of Thebes.
I guess someone in the Kremlin was reading the Saker's blog; 404 can by extension be applied to the curators and enablers as it's looking increasingly likely that not just NATO but the US will fracture as this evil project comes to an ignominious conclusion.
Regarding Farm Equipment Showing Hot, Decoy use is highly probable. If they were moving or hot when hit, then the farmer/driver must be some of those expendables ammo sump ethnics. Maybe an enforcing unit was sitting in the hedges with a gun bead on the poor sod. I’ve mentioned in the past many of the Russian or Hungarian speaking untrained troops sent into Bakhmut were likely sent there just to absorb attention of drones and artillery . After all, getting the Russians to kill the undesirables while expending ammo must be a double win for the Nazis.
A balanced account and I also worry about NATO air exercises. I think the Saker quit because he feared a false flag and a NATO Russian war. After 911, you think NATO will back down? But Russians are very aware of the probability also. My Western friends are drawn to winning a war that can’t be won like moths to a flame. Took some cash out of the bank and watching and hoping our State Dept. doesn’t care about the people more than needing to win.
Goodness, 2 words to look up in the 3rd paragraph!
Th Self Propelled Sprayer on skinny row crop wheels is pretty obvious if you farm, i want to say its a Deere from the booms being so far forward when folded in transport, but it could be anything to be fair. It must be empty as the tank that could be full of water/chemical isnt hugely different in color as you would assume it to be. What a machine parked in the open sun all day looks like on thermal i have no idea. But the sprayer looks like its parked and no one around it to me.
“a truly triumphal propaganda syzygy.” Genius!!!
Totally different ( sorry) would like you to keep a ear out for any Depleted Uranium explosion news.
Any way great reporting as usual. thanx
Russian forces may well regard Kiev's offensive action as an opportunity to accelerate attrition of Ukrainian/NATO military resources given abundant opportunities to destroy exposed Ukrainian equipment and personnel. Much easier to engage advancing enemy units than to root entrenched troops out of trenches and concrete residential buildings. And engaging Ukrainian forces in the open reduces damage to civilian infrastructure. All good given Russia's consistently elucidated objectives which include Kiev's demilitarization and minimization of harm to civilians and infrastructure.
The only good point I can find in this extended war is that I have discovered great writers who provide me videos so that I don't have to extend my time by finding them. Thanks.
Sidenote: The video of a drone attacking a single tank used the band Seether as its soundtrack. They're from my country but became American (understandable because our rock culture died within 10 years of the ANC taking power). The interesting point is that their name here was Saron Gas. The American record label never liked that, especially with the sarin gas attack in Tokyo, so it was changed. Thereafter, sadly, a South African story became very American with celebrity break-ups, drug addiction and suicide. Been added to a Russian war video is a twist. Very sad, very rock 'n roll.
"Ukraine has launched large maneuver attacks in exactly the primary directions long-predicted as being at the heart of the offensive"
So, no surprise then?
Attacking prepared positions?
With a numerically inferior force?
Then this offensive is also doomed to miserable failure.
Desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine offensive is being stoned by Russia, who had 9 months to prepare for it, and knew exactly where it would take place. Ukraine lost most of 2 brigades in past two days and only has 10 new strike brigades left, as far as I know. That is 40,000. Even if they have 80,000, the Russians have 2X the men and 10X the firepower, and total air superiority. Ukraine was forced into this offensive. From what I hear today, Ukraine threw a lot of meat into the grinder and were cooked into meatloaf. Russia also has plenty of weapon it will be rolling out that it has not yet used. Wouldn't the next week not be a fine time for Russia to attack from the north? Grind and pulverize. Deliver a bone-crushing defeat, and exorcise the devil from these Nazi demons.
Terrible, to think the next 2 weeks tens of thousands lives, millions of families, eviscerated all too casually.
The similarities of the current war to the Ukranian Soviet war are uncanny. Zelensky is Symon Petliura reincarnated, and his western backers are all the same with some new faces.
It seems a coup is very possible if the offensive fails, more so if it's catastrophic. But Zelensky will flee just as the late Petilura, they all do. Maybe to Germany or Poland.
thank you...
WOW, just WOW. I have to order a doordash meal, snack and take this all in. I follow a lot of telegram channels and threads, but to put it down like this is a cerebral masterpiece. Love your threads. I will start to perhaps make my very first topic in near future, pending work obligations. Appreciate your hard work
The offensive began the day Bakhmut fell and Ukraine crossed the border towards Belgorod. Feints are part of an attack.
The dam is a frightening develop, a long-term detriment to Ukraine and (more so) Russia. It seems to emphasise what was obvious at the beginning, that the only way to prevent a second NATO war is if Russia occupied everything east of the Dnieper. I don't know if that's plausible but natural barriers have made warmongers hesitate through history. Of course, no contextual logic mitigates the pain that would occur to millions of normal people ensnared by geopolitical neoliberalism.
armor moving at night is especially dangerous to dismounted infantry..... or the driver overloaded using thermal optics to avoid running over/into friendlies.
driving a tank/ifv. as well as a rotary aircraft, using night optics requires a lot of practice... rf have far more training!
the french 'tank' is wheeled! mobility challenged!
looks like the range of rf helicopter weapons exceed dismounted stinger capability or they feared sending stinger squad to front..... or the kit is sold off black market.
we'll see how kluged weapons, used by lightly trained operators, using foreign combat doctrine work.
interesting few days!
The tally from the first day seems to be in favor of Russia, but we'll see in the coming days to see what other cards Ukraine has in the hand, like pulling troops from other fronts or the famed NATO-trained brigades.
I'm personally waiting for the Woke Company PMC, most prominent units being the Sapphos Squad and the New Sacred Band of Thebes.
I guess someone in the Kremlin was reading the Saker's blog; 404 can by extension be applied to the curators and enablers as it's looking increasingly likely that not just NATO but the US will fracture as this evil project comes to an ignominious conclusion.
Regarding Farm Equipment Showing Hot, Decoy use is highly probable. If they were moving or hot when hit, then the farmer/driver must be some of those expendables ammo sump ethnics. Maybe an enforcing unit was sitting in the hedges with a gun bead on the poor sod. I’ve mentioned in the past many of the Russian or Hungarian speaking untrained troops sent into Bakhmut were likely sent there just to absorb attention of drones and artillery . After all, getting the Russians to kill the undesirables while expending ammo must be a double win for the Nazis.
A balanced account and I also worry about NATO air exercises. I think the Saker quit because he feared a false flag and a NATO Russian war. After 911, you think NATO will back down? But Russians are very aware of the probability also. My Western friends are drawn to winning a war that can’t be won like moths to a flame. Took some cash out of the bank and watching and hoping our State Dept. doesn’t care about the people more than needing to win.
Goodness, 2 words to look up in the 3rd paragraph!
Th Self Propelled Sprayer on skinny row crop wheels is pretty obvious if you farm, i want to say its a Deere from the booms being so far forward when folded in transport, but it could be anything to be fair. It must be empty as the tank that could be full of water/chemical isnt hugely different in color as you would assume it to be. What a machine parked in the open sun all day looks like on thermal i have no idea. But the sprayer looks like its parked and no one around it to me.