Folks, I wanted to make this article free, but alas I’ve wedged myself into a new working schedule of at least two paid articles per month, one for each half, so this one’s got to fill the slot. But you don’t want to miss this dishy report, so I suggest for those unable to subscribe to utilize Substack’s new feature which is supposed to allow subscribers to unlock one free article to try out. Unfortunately, I don’t know how it works on the consumer’s end, precisely, or how to activate it, as it appears to be something new or still being rolled out.
Simplicius if it helps, attach a copy of this report to your next article as an "appendix" for context. Honestly, I've no clue what Substack allows for length or word count. Whatever works.
Your work is a benefit. The more it is available the better. As a subscriber, helping you do that is my goal. We still get the first look :)
Anyway, you're knocking it out of the park, or hitting the upper 90 every time (pick your metaphor). Thank you.
I partially disagree that there is a behind the scenes knowledge of reality. While some have been saying the truth, overwhelming political power was held with the neocon factions.
I think what we are seeing is this: the generation of leaders who were young during ww2 and who understood the real capacity and capability of Russia (or USSR), knew well enough that you simply cannot fight them. You may have tactical victories but will endure a massive defeat - eventually. And so they avoided a fight with them at all costs. Those leaders all retired and died. The new generation is undergoing the most epic example of FAFO that I have ever seen. And a whole generation of Ukrainian men are paying with their lives as a result
It seems the Anti-Russian faction of the USA Deep State played their hand and suffered failure. Now the Anti-China hawks are ascendant. However, the Anti-Iran faction of the USA Deep State has two more cards- Donald Trump, and Israeli war in southern Gaza against Hamas, leading to conflict with Hezbolla, designed to draw the USA into the conflict. However, the USA is determined to move to a war footing to cover its economic woes.
The neocons reflect their sponsor class - a narcissistic oligarchy that can't manage to get their reset ducks in a row; they're seen by the global majority as hypocrites parasites who bring nothing to the table. Now this Ukraine project along with their other projects enters terminal failure and a banking crisis is ready to erupt. It won't just be ammo that's in short supply, and hopefully the EU still manufactures toilet paper otherwise good luck.
Thank you Simplicius for being one of a small group of people capable of communicating the scope of the madness ensuing in the Ukraine.
We live in a postmodern world where the belief thrives that there is no truth. In the last 3-4 years history has served us up with 2 global events that show us the consequences of believing such folly. People are all too slowly waking up. How much destruction must ensue before enough people wake up to stop the powermongers bringing about the destruction of civilization?
As a kid I often wondered what it must have been like living in the global conflict of WW2. It seems that I might have to stop wondering soon and begin directly experiencing. Perhaps a meteorite can save us, but I am not counting on it.
Maybe I am more optimistic by nature, but my impression is that Moscow has the Kiev/NATO psychos by the cojones.
Why do I think that? Mainly because I think that contrary to what many believe, the western powers have been deterred by Putin.
As a result, they have concluded that their options vis-a-vis attacks on Russian territory are limited. My take us that they've concluded that it's worth taking the risk of trying UAV/ drone swarm attacks and also PR exercises (theatric cross corset incursions).
However, they won't go further than that (eg by using Taurus/long range missiles against Russia).
The problem is that everything they're trying is failing. For example, their UAV/drone strategy is failing miserably. Over the last 3 days there has been a significant escalation of attacks by UAVs on Russian territory. We are taking hundreds of drone attacks. However almost nothing appears to be getting through. This is different from what was happening in 2023, when we would regularly hear of drones getting through (even hitting Moscow).
- their PR exercises are also failing, in disastrous fashion. Compare and contrast the most recent pathetic cross-border 'attack/ PR exercise' into Russia, which was annihilated very quickly, with similar exercises in 2023 (which also failed but were at least useful from a PR perspective).
I can't help but wonder if the Russians are using capabilities that are new or haven't been used before (esp EW & laser). Take the UAVs/drones. Sure, these days the Russians are more experienced and effective at taking these attacks out. But like I said we are talking about hundreds of drone attacks 24/7, with virtually none at all getting through. To me that is unusual and suggests that Russia may have developed ways to suppress/destroy drone swarms, which would be a huge breakthrough.
Which brings us to terrorism in Russia. How far will the Kiev/NATO psychos push this button? The West needs to be extremely careful here, in my view. If they are exposed as having a hand in massive terror attacks in Russia, well, all bets are off. It wouldn't surprise me to see some nasty incidents in the coming days/weeks. However and again, to date it seems the Russians have full control of the situation.
A last point. I think that leaked call of German officers has spooked the entire NATO establishment. Just my 10 cents but I took it as a warning by The Kremlin that they have totally infiltrated NATO's comms system - they already know everything that's being planned, including terrorist attacks.
Anyway, I may be wrong but my take is that a deterred West / Kiev finds itself stuck. It won't escalate against Russian territory beyond Putin's red lines - as this risks Russian retaliation - but it can't operate within them either. Meanwhile the Russians are advancing across the entire front in Ukraine.
It does come back to numbers and losses, and we now appear to be getting closer to the truth of the matter. Sloppy language and definitions don't assist the amateur analyst here, and certainly this topic has been the cause of much lively discussion, confusion and also deliberate misinformation.
My personal take is that Ukraine have enlisted over 1.2M men since the start of the war - regulars, reservists, volunteers and concripts. Casualties have been around 700,000 or c 1,000 per day - probably the real number is closer to 800 on average but more recently. Of these maybe 0.5M have been permanent - KIA, POW, MIA or WIA and unable to return to duty. Of the remaining 200,000 men, 100,000 are still in hospital and 100,000 have returned to duty. This leaves the UAF at 700,000 strong with 100,000 of those in hospital. These figures could easily be out by 100,000 or more but tie in with various recent reports and statements from different sources.
With c 100 combat brigades or equivalent There should be around 250,000 men in combat teeth arms. The remainder of troops are in supply and rear area duties. The actual number of combat troops now will be around half of 250,000 or c 120,000. At 30,000 losses a month (now) this army will burn through its combat troops every 4 months. Taking into account replacements (and many will be returning wounded) this figure goes to 8 months. This handily equals the third army theory and we are now seeing the 4th army being demolished. This army is short of everything whilst the Russian military grows relatively stronger and more capable. However this analysis explains how Ukraine can still have a large military and a reducing and IMO soon to become "marginal" ability to influence events on the battlefield.
As the author writes, those of us who have written about the relative capabilities of Ukraine/NATO versus Russia and have tried to do so objectively - well it appears that this French report anyway vindicates our views and judgements. And once again most western "experts" appear to have founded their views on prejudice and misinformation if not outright propaganda. However pointing out the truth can be a dangerous game these days, and those who wield the levers of power seem to prefer to sustain a narrative rather than allow critical thinking and analysis to enter into their decision making processes. If so, a delusional and dangerous approach.
The warmongers shouldn't be sad with the election of Trump as Pretzel. The war against Russia will be replaced by the war against China. Still lots of money for everyone. And everyone knows Chinese stuff breaks all the time unlike Soviet stuff. This war against China will be easy. White Man's prestige will be restored.
David Glantz is my favourite WW2 historian. He focuses on the Eastern Front, and it was thanks to reading his books that I understood that the Nazis were never going to win that war, it was a war they were in fact losing from 1941.
Simplicius, thanks again for a very informative article.
Concerning the silencers, I have seen numerous videos where RF infantry look to have silencers on their weapons. I am not well versed, perhaps another reader can provide additional color, but a standard AK compared with what currently seems to be carried indicate to me that, more often then not, that silencers are prevalent.
I’ve been thinking about the decline of the western democracies and our decent into what to many people see as insane and dangerous.
The question I have asked about this conflict is why our high tech superior equipment is so inadequate.
There is another thinker on Substack who Aurelian who tries to explain how our dumbing down of our society will eventually lead to multiple failures.
Now let’s go back to 1917 and beyond in Russia.
The capital base and resources meant at the end of WW2 the Soviet Union was I think second in gdp. Less thank 40 years later they were a basket case and smaller than then west Germany. Why? The communists fully embraced DEI and the real drivers of expertise and knowledge were sidelined as we see today with the dumbing down of the Western world.
Now let’s fast forward to 2022.
The young recruits who in the past had to go a rigorous training program had to be tough are no longer the standard.
In addition the DEI and wokeness generally have weakened all our institutions.
When the Soviet Union collapsed all that was left was the remnants of a country the vied to always be 2nd. By the end less GDP the a small European economy.
Here we are today. We have 75% become Soviet like. Our education teaches ideology not inquiry, our graduates of today are overgrown children. I wonder if they even know how thier smart devise works, how much energy cast data centers use.
I think my conclusion of a very long comment is that things have gone 180 degrees. It was the soviets who had second rate armies and equipment. This was the result of 20-30 years of DEI. We are now emulating the soviets and destroying our own societies and ability. It is the West that is now the new Soviet in terms of self destruction. We are maybe 29 years into our own experiment and already failing fast.
I would be interested to see some more commentary on our own dumbing down and resultant failures.
I am not very convinced by the tank weight/stuck in mud thing. You get 2 tonner trucks stuck in that mud. You're telling me a 40 ton Russian tanks would cruise through that mud somehow? I can't argue authoritatively but I kinda think not. They drove into that on purpose.
Great article and great news. I really hope we can avoid a deeper WWIII by sensible people leaking the obvious truth. It was pretty devastating comment from those French military leaks.
Simplicius if it helps, attach a copy of this report to your next article as an "appendix" for context. Honestly, I've no clue what Substack allows for length or word count. Whatever works.
Your work is a benefit. The more it is available the better. As a subscriber, helping you do that is my goal. We still get the first look :)
Anyway, you're knocking it out of the park, or hitting the upper 90 every time (pick your metaphor). Thank you.
I partially disagree that there is a behind the scenes knowledge of reality. While some have been saying the truth, overwhelming political power was held with the neocon factions.
I think what we are seeing is this: the generation of leaders who were young during ww2 and who understood the real capacity and capability of Russia (or USSR), knew well enough that you simply cannot fight them. You may have tactical victories but will endure a massive defeat - eventually. And so they avoided a fight with them at all costs. Those leaders all retired and died. The new generation is undergoing the most epic example of FAFO that I have ever seen. And a whole generation of Ukrainian men are paying with their lives as a result
It seems the Anti-Russian faction of the USA Deep State played their hand and suffered failure. Now the Anti-China hawks are ascendant. However, the Anti-Iran faction of the USA Deep State has two more cards- Donald Trump, and Israeli war in southern Gaza against Hamas, leading to conflict with Hezbolla, designed to draw the USA into the conflict. However, the USA is determined to move to a war footing to cover its economic woes.
The neocons reflect their sponsor class - a narcissistic oligarchy that can't manage to get their reset ducks in a row; they're seen by the global majority as hypocrites parasites who bring nothing to the table. Now this Ukraine project along with their other projects enters terminal failure and a banking crisis is ready to erupt. It won't just be ammo that's in short supply, and hopefully the EU still manufactures toilet paper otherwise good luck.
Thank you Simplicius for being one of a small group of people capable of communicating the scope of the madness ensuing in the Ukraine.
We live in a postmodern world where the belief thrives that there is no truth. In the last 3-4 years history has served us up with 2 global events that show us the consequences of believing such folly. People are all too slowly waking up. How much destruction must ensue before enough people wake up to stop the powermongers bringing about the destruction of civilization?
As a kid I often wondered what it must have been like living in the global conflict of WW2. It seems that I might have to stop wondering soon and begin directly experiencing. Perhaps a meteorite can save us, but I am not counting on it.
Great piece and thank you again Simplicius.
Maybe I am more optimistic by nature, but my impression is that Moscow has the Kiev/NATO psychos by the cojones.
Why do I think that? Mainly because I think that contrary to what many believe, the western powers have been deterred by Putin.
As a result, they have concluded that their options vis-a-vis attacks on Russian territory are limited. My take us that they've concluded that it's worth taking the risk of trying UAV/ drone swarm attacks and also PR exercises (theatric cross corset incursions).
However, they won't go further than that (eg by using Taurus/long range missiles against Russia).
The problem is that everything they're trying is failing. For example, their UAV/drone strategy is failing miserably. Over the last 3 days there has been a significant escalation of attacks by UAVs on Russian territory. We are taking hundreds of drone attacks. However almost nothing appears to be getting through. This is different from what was happening in 2023, when we would regularly hear of drones getting through (even hitting Moscow).
- their PR exercises are also failing, in disastrous fashion. Compare and contrast the most recent pathetic cross-border 'attack/ PR exercise' into Russia, which was annihilated very quickly, with similar exercises in 2023 (which also failed but were at least useful from a PR perspective).
I can't help but wonder if the Russians are using capabilities that are new or haven't been used before (esp EW & laser). Take the UAVs/drones. Sure, these days the Russians are more experienced and effective at taking these attacks out. But like I said we are talking about hundreds of drone attacks 24/7, with virtually none at all getting through. To me that is unusual and suggests that Russia may have developed ways to suppress/destroy drone swarms, which would be a huge breakthrough.
Which brings us to terrorism in Russia. How far will the Kiev/NATO psychos push this button? The West needs to be extremely careful here, in my view. If they are exposed as having a hand in massive terror attacks in Russia, well, all bets are off. It wouldn't surprise me to see some nasty incidents in the coming days/weeks. However and again, to date it seems the Russians have full control of the situation.
A last point. I think that leaked call of German officers has spooked the entire NATO establishment. Just my 10 cents but I took it as a warning by The Kremlin that they have totally infiltrated NATO's comms system - they already know everything that's being planned, including terrorist attacks.
Anyway, I may be wrong but my take is that a deterred West / Kiev finds itself stuck. It won't escalate against Russian territory beyond Putin's red lines - as this risks Russian retaliation - but it can't operate within them either. Meanwhile the Russians are advancing across the entire front in Ukraine.
Let's see what happens.
It does come back to numbers and losses, and we now appear to be getting closer to the truth of the matter. Sloppy language and definitions don't assist the amateur analyst here, and certainly this topic has been the cause of much lively discussion, confusion and also deliberate misinformation.
My personal take is that Ukraine have enlisted over 1.2M men since the start of the war - regulars, reservists, volunteers and concripts. Casualties have been around 700,000 or c 1,000 per day - probably the real number is closer to 800 on average but more recently. Of these maybe 0.5M have been permanent - KIA, POW, MIA or WIA and unable to return to duty. Of the remaining 200,000 men, 100,000 are still in hospital and 100,000 have returned to duty. This leaves the UAF at 700,000 strong with 100,000 of those in hospital. These figures could easily be out by 100,000 or more but tie in with various recent reports and statements from different sources.
With c 100 combat brigades or equivalent There should be around 250,000 men in combat teeth arms. The remainder of troops are in supply and rear area duties. The actual number of combat troops now will be around half of 250,000 or c 120,000. At 30,000 losses a month (now) this army will burn through its combat troops every 4 months. Taking into account replacements (and many will be returning wounded) this figure goes to 8 months. This handily equals the third army theory and we are now seeing the 4th army being demolished. This army is short of everything whilst the Russian military grows relatively stronger and more capable. However this analysis explains how Ukraine can still have a large military and a reducing and IMO soon to become "marginal" ability to influence events on the battlefield.
As the author writes, those of us who have written about the relative capabilities of Ukraine/NATO versus Russia and have tried to do so objectively - well it appears that this French report anyway vindicates our views and judgements. And once again most western "experts" appear to have founded their views on prejudice and misinformation if not outright propaganda. However pointing out the truth can be a dangerous game these days, and those who wield the levers of power seem to prefer to sustain a narrative rather than allow critical thinking and analysis to enter into their decision making processes. If so, a delusional and dangerous approach.
Bravo ! Another well written and informative article. Sad truth that it is so rare when the need is so great.
Keep up the good fight -
The warmongers shouldn't be sad with the election of Trump as Pretzel. The war against Russia will be replaced by the war against China. Still lots of money for everyone. And everyone knows Chinese stuff breaks all the time unlike Soviet stuff. This war against China will be easy. White Man's prestige will be restored.
Fantastic article; its always refreshing to get to know the intricacies of Western (in this case French), paroxysm.
Looking at pompadour Van Der Leyen and Hitler, at least he shows conviction; when Ukraine collapses, I doubt VDL will go out like he did... Too bad!
David Glantz is my favourite WW2 historian. He focuses on the Eastern Front, and it was thanks to reading his books that I understood that the Nazis were never going to win that war, it was a war they were in fact losing from 1941.
Simplicius, thanks again for a very informative article.
Concerning the silencers, I have seen numerous videos where RF infantry look to have silencers on their weapons. I am not well versed, perhaps another reader can provide additional color, but a standard AK compared with what currently seems to be carried indicate to me that, more often then not, that silencers are prevalent.
I’ve been thinking about the decline of the western democracies and our decent into what to many people see as insane and dangerous.
The question I have asked about this conflict is why our high tech superior equipment is so inadequate.
There is another thinker on Substack who Aurelian who tries to explain how our dumbing down of our society will eventually lead to multiple failures.
Now let’s go back to 1917 and beyond in Russia.
The capital base and resources meant at the end of WW2 the Soviet Union was I think second in gdp. Less thank 40 years later they were a basket case and smaller than then west Germany. Why? The communists fully embraced DEI and the real drivers of expertise and knowledge were sidelined as we see today with the dumbing down of the Western world.
Now let’s fast forward to 2022.
The young recruits who in the past had to go a rigorous training program had to be tough are no longer the standard.
In addition the DEI and wokeness generally have weakened all our institutions.
When the Soviet Union collapsed all that was left was the remnants of a country the vied to always be 2nd. By the end less GDP the a small European economy.
Here we are today. We have 75% become Soviet like. Our education teaches ideology not inquiry, our graduates of today are overgrown children. I wonder if they even know how thier smart devise works, how much energy cast data centers use.
I think my conclusion of a very long comment is that things have gone 180 degrees. It was the soviets who had second rate armies and equipment. This was the result of 20-30 years of DEI. We are now emulating the soviets and destroying our own societies and ability. It is the West that is now the new Soviet in terms of self destruction. We are maybe 29 years into our own experiment and already failing fast.
I would be interested to see some more commentary on our own dumbing down and resultant failures.
I am not very convinced by the tank weight/stuck in mud thing. You get 2 tonner trucks stuck in that mud. You're telling me a 40 ton Russian tanks would cruise through that mud somehow? I can't argue authoritatively but I kinda think not. They drove into that on purpose.
Great article and great news. I really hope we can avoid a deeper WWIII by sensible people leaking the obvious truth. It was pretty devastating comment from those French military leaks.