As the year heads towards a close, let’s take a look at where things may be headed technologically in the conflict, as well as give a summary of sorts of where Russia needs to militarily improve to finish off Ukraine. This article is going to focus on the technological aspects of the war, and is therefore a direct sequel, of sorts, to this one from February 2023, where I tried to look forward to the technological changes expected to come, should the war last several years.
What a year for Russia! The sophistication of the Russian MIC really makes me think of just how armed and forward thinking in military terms the Soviet Union was. Everywhere you turn in a confilict is some peice of USSR military gear of some sort. Lets pray for a swift Ukraine collapse and get the kill'n done.
That's probably more a sign of MIC disintegration both in Russian and in the West, than a sign of USSR's forward thinking.
Granted, after it collapsed and "the Cold War ended" (it didn't, really), there was suddenly less need for MIC on either side to manufacture lots of stuff. So these capabilities atrophied or morped into something else.
They're writing about the Bolsheviks. The very same who are in DC now. I think it was projection. Soviet Russia sounds a safe and decent place to raise a family.
I agree, I remember Life magazine articles when I was growing up way back in the day on the quality of Russian education particularly in the areas of math and science.
I hear you. Reactive armor for tanks against armor piercing projectiles springs to mind, as an example of Soviet innovation readily copied everywhere else. In terms of innovation potential, second only to the Wehrmacht in history
Feels like Ukraine is ready to collapse at any moment. Morale horrible. Can't get people to fight. Talk of coups. Money running out. And trickles of ammo and materials from West. I don't see this lasting 6 months let alone 5 years unless Russia just stays on defense but even then this might be first war won sitting on defense.
On second thought maybe Putin intends to roll back NATO to 1997 by force. That would take 5 years probably.
I did wonder if the 5 year comment referred to just the SMO in Ukraine, or to a wider geo-strategic tussle - of which military action or deterence would certainly play a part. My thinking for a while now is that Ukraine will collapse in the spring IF Russia can keep up the pressure. Of course I had assumed UAF losses were higher than recently claimed by the Russian MoD, but as you say, the situation within Ukraine looks dire.
I think it ends in a big fireball anyway. Russia won't back down. NATO won't back down. WW3 will be thier out to deflect from their malfeasance about lots of intractable issues...debt, immigration, etc. They'll spend the rest of thier days in luxury bunkers blaming Russia.
Well I would like to think you are being over gloomy. However I believe I am correct when I say that before 2022 NATO ran around 100 wargames about NATO involvement in a Ukrainian vs Russia war and on every occassion it escalated and resulted in MAD. And I see no sign of NATO wishing to cut losses and de-escalate, despite recent issues with funding and weapons supplies. So on that note I wish you a Happy New Year.
You're on to something; the neocons have failed but they retain power when failure should result in "Blofeld" sending them to sharks. Are there shoots of instability of purpose; the oligarchies main outlets provide no hint of this; it's WEF agenda all the way. With imbeciles at the helm miscalculation is a certainty and some hothead neocon will likely ignite the powderkeg.
There is the slim possibility that having recruited new NATO members who straddle Russia's borders they may declare themselves the winners and go home. You never know with these people.
That is possible, it is also possible that in their fury the US Deep State will turn inward and occupy themselves in a civil war designed to give them total control of the US. They already have Canada, then it will be on to Mexico...
I think the longer timeline mentioned by Russian politicians is presenting the worst case scenario to the public. The opposite messaging type from what comes out of Kiev and DC. The failure of Ukraine’s Crimean offensive was as much that they claimed it would be a grand success and couldn’t reorient when it became clear that it wasn’t as it was that it wasn’t successful.
Ukraine's upcoming strategy is fairly simple: longer range missiles furnished by the West and terrorism.
n.b. the missiles will be paid for out of seized Russian assets. And stop kidding yourselves- the seizure is more or less baked in the cake, but the dollar has barely budged.
How many long range missiles does the West even have?
Do they have the industrial base to build more? I don't see how the West can mass produce them in huge quantities. Certainly not enough to do anything except give the Ukrainians false hope.
The US is trying hard to increase the number of missiles produced, but the gap is more like the artillery shell situation, where the Russians are clearly out producing them.
Not as large as you might expect and production would not support mid intensity conflict much less high intensity near-peer war that lasted over a few weeks. Not any spare industrial production capacity sitting around unused in the US either. Plant would have to be built to expand production of almost any DoD product. And I know because that is what I do for a living.
I was hoping this post was at least going to mention the new elephant in the room: the theft of Russia's $/€ 300B central bank reserves that appears imminent (Feb). It's coming hell or high water and that could prolong the conflict for at least a couple more years.
It appears to me the upcoming "discussion" that will happen in the G7 is just pro forma and the decision is already made. The main deterrence seems to be the argument that such thievery will accelerate de-dollarization. Well, the reserves are 98% in Euros and in any case, in dollar terms, $300B is basically a rounding error in dollars held worldwide, so I don't see that slowing down anything.
Other risks? Russia vows to sever all diplomatic ties to the US? Would that even be noticeable given they aren't talking to one another already?
I have never been able to understand that Nabiullina was CB chief and did not move those $billions out of harm's way (i.e. away from Western banks) prior to the start of the SMO. As far as I can see, that failure amounted to high treason.
Worse, how on earth could Putin renew a traitor's contract??
Yes, that bothered me too, although you have to give her done credit for holding things together. I saw on Slavyangrad that another channel had a full explanation for your question, but I didn't follow the link ...
They have two trillion in Western assets they can take inside Russia 300B is a steal for it.
Moreover, this war is with West not Ukraine and USD and Euro will/are not be trusted currencies nor investment locations since confiscation. It was a trap.
OK, we probably don't have the full picture, therefore I cannot judge it. I just boil every time I hear about that $300 billion stolen and them wanting to give it to Ukronazistan.
It seems like it was a smart, calculated risk. A lot of the West's financial moves against Russia after the start of the SMO were totally unprecedented. I'm sure Russia figured assets would be seized/frozen but would be gotten back as part of a post-war settlement. After all, Iran is getting lots of its funds back that were seized in 1979. Despite the fact that it was an absolute pariah state (far more than Russia is) the West never dreamed of openly stealing their money. Further, the way international finance works it is unlikely that most of these funds could just be moved around in the course of a few days (probably takes months) and to have attempted to do so would have tipped Russia's hand.
The assets being seized is not great, but it may have been the least bad option (in the calculation of the Russian state) at the time. I think that even now the loud talk of actually stealing all that money by the West is just that: talk. I think it is being talked about so loudly mostly to encourage nato/us politicians to provide more funds to Ukraine. The rulers of the west are not all that smart, but they have to realize what a short-sighted and foolish move it would be to massively undermine confidence in their own system by illegally stealing Russia's money.
I agree, as far as it having telegraphed Russia's intentions if they has moved it. It's really a small amount when your talking about Nation State finances.
Yes, there are losses, and this will be a sunk cost for Russia. But one with lots of political gains - the US steals and every vassal will be treated the same. The great reset can't go forward without China and Russia submitting, which is why the west has been dithering and lurching through financial/banking problems. Neocons are driving this and they are imbeciles.
Remember the neocons are running this but they are not the ones in charge, not really. I believe the minds behind this are in Europe and they have some very clever people. And they have destroyed the world before, a number of times.
Perhaps, but it seems counterproductive to destroy European economies by de-industrialising themselves; I doubt they can transplant their operations (families) to East Asia or China and it looks like the US is planning to draw its vassal states into its own closed market. The WEF reset is meant to be global and the Russians and Chinese have voted differently, so no global WEF reset. BTW the WEF bastion in Singapore risks becoming isolated (Malaysia can just cut off the water supply). I don't think they have clever people, they're only half smart.
Don't know that they won't take the money, just a matter of figuring out how to do it so they don't burn their fingers. The US took Venezuela's money so it is not a question of if, just questions of how and when.
I read an interesting take on it at the time, was on zerohedge. That article discussed what is the real worth of that money.
Is it 1. more valuable to get back, or 2. more valuable to have stolen so that the world can see that the US is without honor, that it cannot be trusted with anyone's assets and that NO asset is safe where the US can reach it.
The writer felt that Russia went with the second option and that is why she wasn't fired.
Yes, somebody else on this forum pointed me to a similar analysis, which came to the same conclusion.
However, did Nabiullina plan it that way (in conjunction with the Kremlin) or was she negligent or was it a betrayal? It would be foolish of the Kremlin to admit she is a traitor as that would be an admission of weakness, so they turned a betrayal into a possitive opportunity to speed up the demise of Western hegemony.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the more distant future when this is over.
You are spot-on. Honor isn't a word that has any meaning or bears serious mention in the West anymore but in Russia, the "global south", other parts of the world that are not in club Hegemon, honorable is a thing. And there are plenty other examples to support this suggestion of the US Government as fair-weather friend at its best, demoniacally perfidious bad actor when it can get away with it. It will be another brick in the road towards strategic defeat of the US and NATO its trusty minion.
So this confirms that theft of assets is the business model and accelerates de-Dollarisation. Who will purchase US bonds or treasuries - it looks like nobody. Trade with the combined west is now on the chopping block. China / ASEAN trade has steadily increased, with the west it's going the other way. Americans think the indispensable as a trade destination; but they'll eventually work it out.
If the USA wasn't intent on self-destruction this could be a painful, yet positive, for them. Take back the dollars and pay down the fed. Effectively monetizing their debt and propping up the dollars still in the system.
Those funds are already effectively gone for good. Frozen or stolen, Russia ain't seeing them again for a very long time. The only difference is if they are stolen it will be a lifeline to Ukraine for another 4-5 years, and it will be an almighty slap in the face that Russia has to fight an adversary financed by its own money
I am almost 100% sure that they will not steal frozen Russian reserves, much less transfer them to Ukraine. Only an idiot completely out of touch with reality and completely incompetent in geopolitics and diplomacy would do such a thing. This is blatant theft. This will completely destroy the international reputation of the European Union and further weaken the international influence of the United States. Already almost no one outside the United States and its vassals believes their propaganda and their absurd statements. And even many of their own citizens are becoming less and less approving of their leaders' policies. There is absolutely no legal way to justify such theft. Russia can also recognize such an obviously hostile action as a direct unprovoked act of aggression, this is a pure casus belli. And the entire non-Western world will agree with Russia. No one in Europe, except the Nazis in Ukraine, really wants to start a direct war with the most experienced and combat-ready army in the world. Internal political pressure in the EU will increase even more. This could lead to the collapse of the EU or NATO. Countries will begin to withdraw from these terrorist organizations in order to avoid being drawn into a war with Russia.
The conflict will go on as long as Russia wants it to. And $300 billion is lunch money to the MIC people. Little of it will go to Ukraine, yes it will fund missiles, etc., built in the US but in all probability little to none will get to Ukraine in time.
Perhaps something is moving regarding Ukraine. There was a Russian govt flight to DC that sat on the runway for about 45 hours. They may have been there to discuss Ukraine along with the dozen other world calamities stemming from the Biden cartel's adventuring.
Thanks for your writings and your usual incisive commentary. One of the reasons I am a sub is because you prioritise truth above all on your substack
Too many pro-Ru commentators are quick to dismiss their opponents much in the same vein as how pro-Ukr or pro-West commentators dismissed Russia as a "gas station with nukes". The reality is there are motivated and brilliant people working on both sides and both are driven to win. Russia has a lot of deficiencies and the sanctions are partially effective. Admitting these problems is the first step towards solving them. And hoping that China or India comes to the rescue is remiss - they are net beneficiaries so long as the conflict continues.
I also salute the Ukrainian soldier - he is doing what I would do, or hope to, in his position. It is not his fault he is led by psychopaths with no strategic vision and being expended as fodder by the gardeners in the West.
Above all else I lament the wasted life, the men in the trenches who are made of greater stuff. May they inspire a generation of courage.
They slow somehow the production of some weapons, although much less than predicted.
However, they are fuelling the Russian own industry, that was dormant.
Production of civil planes, computers, trucks, turbines, industrial robots and even their own microprocessor industry.
Everything is developing with big investment from the government.
And Russia is a big market, now even bigger since Russian and Iran signed the free trade agreement.
This means that the price for the slowdown of the military is to make Russia a industrial and economic superpower that will be superior to the EU.
About China, they are obviously benefited by the situation, but they do help to some level.
For example they provide Mikron (the Russian fab company) with lithographic machines of Chinese production so Mikron can increase its production.
They are not so advance as the ASML but they are enough to create chips for industrial applications, so thanks to China Russia was able to increase their production of chips.
Finally, when in a range of 2 to 5 years China will catch up with the most advance chip technology and finish last advantage of the West (and they will catch up, just take a look how many Chinese Taiwanese engineers from TSMC, AMD,Intel, Siemens (for chip design programs)… has moved to China with the thousand talents program) Russia will benefit for being able to buy any kind of chip and/or lithographic machine without restriction
The Chinese situation is a bit strange for me. Some of their big SOE are complying with the sanctions because they have ties and investments & trade with the US/EU. For example, just recently the US put some new gas field under sanctions and CNOOC and Total declared force majeure and exited the project - and by definition broke their off-take agreements. China is definitely buying a ton of Russian gas, but are they doing this in spite of sanctions, or are they simply getting waivers? I know that EU gets tons of waivers to import materials, and for example Boeing gets waivers to supply "critical" parts for passenger planes for safety reasons.
The natural trade bloc of the future is Russia-CIS-Iran-India-China-Pakistan-Indonesia-Gulf Arab States. The nation across the pond really has no reason to dominate or dictate these relationships. But they will try.
EU is a continent in decline / stagnation. I will be long dead before they pull their finger out. Pity because I loved German cars, Italian food, and French wine. Oh well.
Simplicius, your unique insight and non-stop hard work all year has been outstanding. It's also so important - in a sea of lives, your dedication to trying to find the truth of things is invaluable. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
You know, just yesterday the AFU have launched a terrorist attack at civillian targets in Belgorod, killing 22 people. And guess how the regular Ukrainians reacted? With cheering and ecstatic glee! Yes, seeing dead Russian children was a huge morale boost for them. Heck, the AFU have been shelling random civillian targets at Donbass for almost ten years now, with no remorse from anybody on their side.
There is enough evidence, that a huge number of "simple" Ukrainias are no less crazy, sadistic and psychotic than their leaders and this is coming from as far as 2014, when people burned alive in broad daylight in Odessa were mocked as "roasted colorado bugs". So, I am sorry, but I find any cheering of Ukrainian soldiers as utterly disgusting.
Being happy and satisfied when enemy soldiers are dying is one thing. When seeing dead civillians and especially children? I am yet to see something like that from anyone on the Russian side. From Ukrainians though? Plenty, for the last ten years.
What do you mean? Of course there were plenty of western Ukrainians that followed nazi ideology and collaborated with Germans. However there are much more Ukrainians that were on the Soviet side, the majority.
The “Otherization” is a process that is enacted long before the warfare begins. It is not an outcome of war, but rather an outcome of propaganda and the production of false emotion. The culture has to stand firm and stay rational and reasonable in the face of the manipulations into mass psychosis.
I have friends and family who are ‘normally’ caring and reasonable. They are in danger of becoming the “Nazis” they see in those who disagree with them.
Agreed. The more audacious the propaganda, the less acceptable their actions would be to the public they are hoodwinking. We’ve seen some pretty audacious nonsense!
"There is enough evidence, that a huge number of "simple" Ukrainias are no less crazy, sadistic and psychotic than their leaders "
yep its true. back in 2010 was a terrorist attack on Volgograd station. and BACK THEN Ukie nazis and other UPA nationalists were CHEERING THIS all over internet. in 2010 even before 2014 coup. omg. that nation are mentally sick hohols. not everyone but a lot of em.
this war couldnt happen at all if this retarded society wouldnt cheer so much when americans asked them to kill russians. they run in love to do it. now receive everythingback on your head what they wanted and deserved.
You can for example "zap" these drones with radars or develop specialized DEWs. The problem is, it requires a lot of power, no matter how cheaply you can produce that stuff.
We have tested EMP artillery shells (152 mm if i remember correctly). Their design looks almost like implosion nuke, only with cesium iodide crystal instead of uranium. But their EMP radius is small compared with nukes and they literally cost a fuckton of money, so even in Soviet times we couldn't allow thousands of them. Well, maybe someone will have an epiphany in terms of cost reduction?
Flux generators used explosives to provide power... And they're still not very powerful.
Maybe they could be useful for targeting the drone operator, but an ordinary shell would solve the same problem without difficulties.
Using one against an already flying drone is somewhat more difficult.
And that's ignoring the price.
Effects of EMPs were researched back in the day and not even a nuke could stop a tank several hundred meters away, so I doubt they would be effective even as specialized artillery ammunition.
Aircraft bombs/cruise missiles with flux generators do exist, but have we ever seen them being used? They should be very good for power grid attacks, but it seems to be easier just to bomb power plants (like the US) or selectively drone the hell out of the network (like Russians)
“Not having the Federal Reserve’s endless money printing abilities, Russia is forced to take bets with investments in key areas, while neglecting other—deemed to be—non-critical ones”- Simplicius
I have to push back here a bit. The Russian Central Bank has the capacity to “print” as many Rubles as the US Federal Reserve can “print” US Dollars. EVERY sovereign currency issuing nation can issue forth its currency without constraint if it so desires. The restraining factor, as always, is the availability of REAL RESOURCES with which to spend that money on.
There is nothing available for sale in Rubles that the Russian government cannot afford to purchase, be that labor or manufacturing output. What constrains Russia from fielding an adequate quantity of EW kit on the battlefield for her forces is the ability to scale up the production of this equipment not a lack of capacity to pay for it.
It is generally understood that money is merely a placeholder for the future delivery of manpower, goods and services. The point being made by Simplicius is that if a larger proportion of the money goes toward military in a near full employment economy, other areas of desired growth will suffer. Inflation will also increase and rubles will become less acceptable to friendly trading partners.
Parallels with the USD are not appropriate, as it remains the dominant trade settlement and world reserve currency. This has enabled the US to export inflation (as well as manufacturing jobs) to the rest of the world with minimal domestic economic consequences.
I doubt Russian leaders expect a long war with the Ukraine regime. Doesn't matter how much the Fed prints, the West doesn't have the capability of producing weapons and munitions to re-equip Ukraine to anything like the level it was when it began the war, and Ukraine now has far fewer well trained troops and the pool it has to mobilize is much inferior to its position in past years.
I suspect the long conflict Russian leaders speak of is with the US/NATO, not Ukraine. They expect the hegemon's MIC to try to open new conflict zones as the Ukraine one fails, possibly even directly using US/NATO military. Until the US/NATO has been defanged, Russia will sensibly maintain and strengthen its military.
Seems to me that EW is insufficient for drones; you need a kinetic component also that knocks them aside at the same time control is lost. Jammers like the Warlock system were very effective against wireless IED triggers, no reason for them not to work here. Also against everything wireless in the vicinity. Obviously, the enemy is going to respond, but something that increases the cost of their weapons is a win.
A dream system would be something analogous to the Warlock jammer along with something with a mm-band radar and a small weapon to hit the things aside with some kinetic force - not a kill necessarily but enough to get them out of the vicinity.
Exactly. Seems like they should have some kind of low budget CIWS by now. You know like radar and a machinegun or little rockets attached to it. I can't believe it so hard to deal with these drones. These FPVs don't move fast, don't fly high and are not stealthy or armored. Seems like even small .30 caliber machine guns could take them out.
Baby version of CIWS armed with a belt fed shotgun. Small loitering anti drones with net launchers. LIDAR for targeting the incoming, combined with radio direction finding to locate active drones incoming AND the controller location. Anti radiation "smart" mortar rounds deployed right at the front for suppressing the controller side.
If there truly is a line of contact stalemate due to drones, Russia will adapt its operations. For instance, troops at the front still have to be supplied and controlled. Expect Russia to become even more effective at interdicting supply and obliterating all command posts and rear echelon units and resources. Russia is far ahead of the West in terms of resources to do so and is pulling further away.
I don't believe that is the reason for Russian restraint. It defies logic. Russia is being provoked daily into expanding this war - even within Ukraine - and fails to do so. Asking yourself why is instructive.
Russia has the military power and requisite armaments to expand the war sufficiently that Ukraine would be unable to respond and would collapse shortly thereafter. I can't come to another conclusion but that Russia likes the correlation of forces and relative casualty rates and is pleased with the depopulation of the Ukraine that is happening. Basically, Putin is making this hurt - the Ukrainians, the US, NATO as a whole. Everyone. The fact they deserve it is just the maraschino cherry on top.
Add the EU - prolonging and so provoking EU into confiscation of the CBR assets in the EU, which will spark withdrawals of other state assets and accentuate the collapse of the euro
also bleeding EU budgets in 'support' for Ukr and brewing serious divisions
Well, I don't think the Ukraine population as a whole 'deserve it'.
The EU and US populations either, as far as that goes, even those that are
duped into rabid anti-Russian sentiments. All are being used by elite interests that are totally unconcerned about the negative impacts on their own societies - as long as their power and perks are not endangered, of course.
Putin certainly is playing it smart in degrading the number, capabilities and credibility of the opposition. Could be though that Russian 'restraint' has also to do with a vision of what is required to win a stable peace?
Even at this late date, accomplishing what he hoped for - and what failed to materialize - at the beginning of the conflict: the Ukrainians throwing out the corrupt Nazi thug government and negotiating something acceptable with its replacement - might be seen as a less costly and long-term better prospect than pursuing outright military victory?
Yep. In particular the casualty rates have been remarkably steady, so much they seem actively managed as the primary goal, with movement on the ground being secondary. Now historically, waging wars by this metric has mixed success, but I think here it has potential to work due to Ukraine's limited demographics and unpopular regime.
Russia, like every combatant that wishes to survive and win, IS adapting. It is building up its logistics tail, trying out new weapons, tactics and techniques. Russia is far ahead of NATO in "Strategic"/ Divisional EW, but FPV drones are very much a tactical level device, and rolling out sufficient numbers of EW devices at this level is very much the province of commercial device quantities of manufacture.
That said, if rumours of Russia reinstating its "Big" Divisions, both armour and artillery, then someone has looked at what they have, what is happening and what can be done about it.
Those drone teams may be hard to pinpoint exactly, but if you have an artillery division on hand, whichever grid square they operate in can be made a living hell...
Sure, it's using a sledgehammer to squash a peanut, but the Russian sledgehammer factory is still building up steam, and the AFU only has so many peanuts...
Mother Russia
we dont say it like that. and Mother Russia in english sound ugly. tbf.
Thanks for your reporting all year Simplicius!
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2023-12-30
And thank you my pal, as well. I enjoy your stack as well. Old lady with a virtual cat❤️🐈⬛
What a year for Russia! The sophistication of the Russian MIC really makes me think of just how armed and forward thinking in military terms the Soviet Union was. Everywhere you turn in a confilict is some peice of USSR military gear of some sort. Lets pray for a swift Ukraine collapse and get the kill'n done.
That's probably more a sign of MIC disintegration both in Russian and in the West, than a sign of USSR's forward thinking.
Granted, after it collapsed and "the Cold War ended" (it didn't, really), there was suddenly less need for MIC on either side to manufacture lots of stuff. So these capabilities atrophied or morped into something else.
I was really reffering to the sheer variety , quanitity and robustness of the gear.
USSR's forward thinking.
yes its sign of USSR forward thinking and a lot of tech and principles was invented or started by USSR making huge field for the future improvements.
USSR wasnt low tech retarded shovel filled army of farmers that couldnt read.
its basic mumbling of every westener brainwashed that ussr was gulag camp of political prisoners and evil stalin kgb eating babies, and nothing more.
They're writing about the Bolsheviks. The very same who are in DC now. I think it was projection. Soviet Russia sounds a safe and decent place to raise a family.
I agree, I remember Life magazine articles when I was growing up way back in the day on the quality of Russian education particularly in the areas of math and science.
I hear you. Reactive armor for tanks against armor piercing projectiles springs to mind, as an example of Soviet innovation readily copied everywhere else. In terms of innovation potential, second only to the Wehrmacht in history
Thank you for showing people the truth about the world we live in.
May God bless the victims of these demonically-controlled western nations.
Feels like Ukraine is ready to collapse at any moment. Morale horrible. Can't get people to fight. Talk of coups. Money running out. And trickles of ammo and materials from West. I don't see this lasting 6 months let alone 5 years unless Russia just stays on defense but even then this might be first war won sitting on defense.
On second thought maybe Putin intends to roll back NATO to 1997 by force. That would take 5 years probably.
I did wonder if the 5 year comment referred to just the SMO in Ukraine, or to a wider geo-strategic tussle - of which military action or deterence would certainly play a part. My thinking for a while now is that Ukraine will collapse in the spring IF Russia can keep up the pressure. Of course I had assumed UAF losses were higher than recently claimed by the Russian MoD, but as you say, the situation within Ukraine looks dire.
I think it ends in a big fireball anyway. Russia won't back down. NATO won't back down. WW3 will be thier out to deflect from their malfeasance about lots of intractable issues...debt, immigration, etc. They'll spend the rest of thier days in luxury bunkers blaming Russia.
Well I would like to think you are being over gloomy. However I believe I am correct when I say that before 2022 NATO ran around 100 wargames about NATO involvement in a Ukrainian vs Russia war and on every occassion it escalated and resulted in MAD. And I see no sign of NATO wishing to cut losses and de-escalate, despite recent issues with funding and weapons supplies. So on that note I wish you a Happy New Year.
You're on to something; the neocons have failed but they retain power when failure should result in "Blofeld" sending them to sharks. Are there shoots of instability of purpose; the oligarchies main outlets provide no hint of this; it's WEF agenda all the way. With imbeciles at the helm miscalculation is a certainty and some hothead neocon will likely ignite the powderkeg.
There is the slim possibility that having recruited new NATO members who straddle Russia's borders they may declare themselves the winners and go home. You never know with these people.
That is possible, it is also possible that in their fury the US Deep State will turn inward and occupy themselves in a civil war designed to give them total control of the US. They already have Canada, then it will be on to Mexico...
I think the longer timeline mentioned by Russian politicians is presenting the worst case scenario to the public. The opposite messaging type from what comes out of Kiev and DC. The failure of Ukraine’s Crimean offensive was as much that they claimed it would be a grand success and couldn’t reorient when it became clear that it wasn’t as it was that it wasn’t successful.
I think the "five years" was more a message to the West, along the lines of, "I can do this until hell freezes over, can you?"
Ukraine's upcoming strategy is fairly simple: longer range missiles furnished by the West and terrorism.
n.b. the missiles will be paid for out of seized Russian assets. And stop kidding yourselves- the seizure is more or less baked in the cake, but the dollar has barely budged.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to dither.
How many long range missiles does the West even have?
Do they have the industrial base to build more? I don't see how the West can mass produce them in huge quantities. Certainly not enough to do anything except give the Ukrainians false hope.
Quite a lot, when you throw Tomahawks and others into the mix.
Stop kidding yourselves.
The US is trying hard to increase the number of missiles produced, but the gap is more like the artillery shell situation, where the Russians are clearly out producing them.
The US is scrambling to produce more.
https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/sea-air-space-2023/2023/04/navy-looks-to-drastically-increase-missile-production/
If anything, I'm seeing editorials trying to convey the urgency of increasing the number of missiles.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/august/navy-must-build-more-missiles-now
It seems to me that the US does not have the industrial base for producing them in large quantities and is urgently trying to ramp up production.
It's possible that the situation may change in a few years, but right now the stocks of missiles and production rates are inadequate.
There is already a large stockpile of US missiles.
Not as large as you might expect and production would not support mid intensity conflict much less high intensity near-peer war that lasted over a few weeks. Not any spare industrial production capacity sitting around unused in the US either. Plant would have to be built to expand production of almost any DoD product. And I know because that is what I do for a living.
The dollar doesn't budge because the Fed is buying all the debt. Real buyers are declining, by a lot.
There have been fewer foreign buyers of Treasury securities over the last year or so, but domestic buyers, not the Fed, have taken up that slack.
I was hoping this post was at least going to mention the new elephant in the room: the theft of Russia's $/€ 300B central bank reserves that appears imminent (Feb). It's coming hell or high water and that could prolong the conflict for at least a couple more years.
It appears to me the upcoming "discussion" that will happen in the G7 is just pro forma and the decision is already made. The main deterrence seems to be the argument that such thievery will accelerate de-dollarization. Well, the reserves are 98% in Euros and in any case, in dollar terms, $300B is basically a rounding error in dollars held worldwide, so I don't see that slowing down anything.
Other risks? Russia vows to sever all diplomatic ties to the US? Would that even be noticeable given they aren't talking to one another already?
I have never been able to understand that Nabiullina was CB chief and did not move those $billions out of harm's way (i.e. away from Western banks) prior to the start of the SMO. As far as I can see, that failure amounted to high treason.
Worse, how on earth could Putin renew a traitor's contract??
Yes, that bothered me too, although you have to give her done credit for holding things together. I saw on Slavyangrad that another channel had a full explanation for your question, but I didn't follow the link ...
They have two trillion in Western assets they can take inside Russia 300B is a steal for it.
Moreover, this war is with West not Ukraine and USD and Euro will/are not be trusted currencies nor investment locations since confiscation. It was a trap.
OK, we probably don't have the full picture, therefore I cannot judge it. I just boil every time I hear about that $300 billion stolen and them wanting to give it to Ukronazistan.
That's the idea. China's blood is boiling. Saudi Arabia, etc and they are selling treasuries and other western assets like crazy.
100 years of building financial trust destroyed by over emotional idiots currently running West.
Black Mountain Analysis did a really good piece on exactly this subject. There were limits as to what Russia could do wrt the funds in EU banks
Yes, I agree. And it most definitely was a trap. Worked too.
It seems like it was a smart, calculated risk. A lot of the West's financial moves against Russia after the start of the SMO were totally unprecedented. I'm sure Russia figured assets would be seized/frozen but would be gotten back as part of a post-war settlement. After all, Iran is getting lots of its funds back that were seized in 1979. Despite the fact that it was an absolute pariah state (far more than Russia is) the West never dreamed of openly stealing their money. Further, the way international finance works it is unlikely that most of these funds could just be moved around in the course of a few days (probably takes months) and to have attempted to do so would have tipped Russia's hand.
The assets being seized is not great, but it may have been the least bad option (in the calculation of the Russian state) at the time. I think that even now the loud talk of actually stealing all that money by the West is just that: talk. I think it is being talked about so loudly mostly to encourage nato/us politicians to provide more funds to Ukraine. The rulers of the west are not all that smart, but they have to realize what a short-sighted and foolish move it would be to massively undermine confidence in their own system by illegally stealing Russia's money.
I do not agree with that at all. A calculated risk? What was that supposed to achieved, and what has it achieved in practice?
Re-read.
I agree, as far as it having telegraphed Russia's intentions if they has moved it. It's really a small amount when your talking about Nation State finances.
Yes, there are losses, and this will be a sunk cost for Russia. But one with lots of political gains - the US steals and every vassal will be treated the same. The great reset can't go forward without China and Russia submitting, which is why the west has been dithering and lurching through financial/banking problems. Neocons are driving this and they are imbeciles.
Remember the neocons are running this but they are not the ones in charge, not really. I believe the minds behind this are in Europe and they have some very clever people. And they have destroyed the world before, a number of times.
Perhaps, but it seems counterproductive to destroy European economies by de-industrialising themselves; I doubt they can transplant their operations (families) to East Asia or China and it looks like the US is planning to draw its vassal states into its own closed market. The WEF reset is meant to be global and the Russians and Chinese have voted differently, so no global WEF reset. BTW the WEF bastion in Singapore risks becoming isolated (Malaysia can just cut off the water supply). I don't think they have clever people, they're only half smart.
Don't know that they won't take the money, just a matter of figuring out how to do it so they don't burn their fingers. The US took Venezuela's money so it is not a question of if, just questions of how and when.
I read an interesting take on it at the time, was on zerohedge. That article discussed what is the real worth of that money.
Is it 1. more valuable to get back, or 2. more valuable to have stolen so that the world can see that the US is without honor, that it cannot be trusted with anyone's assets and that NO asset is safe where the US can reach it.
The writer felt that Russia went with the second option and that is why she wasn't fired.
Yes, somebody else on this forum pointed me to a similar analysis, which came to the same conclusion.
However, did Nabiullina plan it that way (in conjunction with the Kremlin) or was she negligent or was it a betrayal? It would be foolish of the Kremlin to admit she is a traitor as that would be an admission of weakness, so they turned a betrayal into a possitive opportunity to speed up the demise of Western hegemony.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the more distant future when this is over.
You are spot-on. Honor isn't a word that has any meaning or bears serious mention in the West anymore but in Russia, the "global south", other parts of the world that are not in club Hegemon, honorable is a thing. And there are plenty other examples to support this suggestion of the US Government as fair-weather friend at its best, demoniacally perfidious bad actor when it can get away with it. It will be another brick in the road towards strategic defeat of the US and NATO its trusty minion.
No amount of money can help Ukraine. Money is only one problem Ukraine has.
So this confirms that theft of assets is the business model and accelerates de-Dollarisation. Who will purchase US bonds or treasuries - it looks like nobody. Trade with the combined west is now on the chopping block. China / ASEAN trade has steadily increased, with the west it's going the other way. Americans think the indispensable as a trade destination; but they'll eventually work it out.
If the USA wasn't intent on self-destruction this could be a painful, yet positive, for them. Take back the dollars and pay down the fed. Effectively monetizing their debt and propping up the dollars still in the system.
Those funds are already effectively gone for good. Frozen or stolen, Russia ain't seeing them again for a very long time. The only difference is if they are stolen it will be a lifeline to Ukraine for another 4-5 years, and it will be an almighty slap in the face that Russia has to fight an adversary financed by its own money
I am almost 100% sure that they will not steal frozen Russian reserves, much less transfer them to Ukraine. Only an idiot completely out of touch with reality and completely incompetent in geopolitics and diplomacy would do such a thing. This is blatant theft. This will completely destroy the international reputation of the European Union and further weaken the international influence of the United States. Already almost no one outside the United States and its vassals believes their propaganda and their absurd statements. And even many of their own citizens are becoming less and less approving of their leaders' policies. There is absolutely no legal way to justify such theft. Russia can also recognize such an obviously hostile action as a direct unprovoked act of aggression, this is a pure casus belli. And the entire non-Western world will agree with Russia. No one in Europe, except the Nazis in Ukraine, really wants to start a direct war with the most experienced and combat-ready army in the world. Internal political pressure in the EU will increase even more. This could lead to the collapse of the EU or NATO. Countries will begin to withdraw from these terrorist organizations in order to avoid being drawn into a war with Russia.
Err, remember, we're talking about Biden. I'm sure you're familiar with Obama's famous quote about him.
The conflict will go on as long as Russia wants it to. And $300 billion is lunch money to the MIC people. Little of it will go to Ukraine, yes it will fund missiles, etc., built in the US but in all probability little to none will get to Ukraine in time.
Most likely. Biden, like all politicians, simply wants to show that he's *doing something*, hang the cost and consequences.
Yep, and there is that 10% to think about...
Perhaps something is moving regarding Ukraine. There was a Russian govt flight to DC that sat on the runway for about 45 hours. They may have been there to discuss Ukraine along with the dozen other world calamities stemming from the Biden cartel's adventuring.
Thanks for your writings and your usual incisive commentary. One of the reasons I am a sub is because you prioritise truth above all on your substack
Too many pro-Ru commentators are quick to dismiss their opponents much in the same vein as how pro-Ukr or pro-West commentators dismissed Russia as a "gas station with nukes". The reality is there are motivated and brilliant people working on both sides and both are driven to win. Russia has a lot of deficiencies and the sanctions are partially effective. Admitting these problems is the first step towards solving them. And hoping that China or India comes to the rescue is remiss - they are net beneficiaries so long as the conflict continues.
I also salute the Ukrainian soldier - he is doing what I would do, or hope to, in his position. It is not his fault he is led by psychopaths with no strategic vision and being expended as fodder by the gardeners in the West.
Above all else I lament the wasted life, the men in the trenches who are made of greater stuff. May they inspire a generation of courage.
Happy 2024.
🙏Amen.
Issue with sanctions for the West is the next.
They slow somehow the production of some weapons, although much less than predicted.
However, they are fuelling the Russian own industry, that was dormant.
Production of civil planes, computers, trucks, turbines, industrial robots and even their own microprocessor industry.
Everything is developing with big investment from the government.
And Russia is a big market, now even bigger since Russian and Iran signed the free trade agreement.
This means that the price for the slowdown of the military is to make Russia a industrial and economic superpower that will be superior to the EU.
About China, they are obviously benefited by the situation, but they do help to some level.
For example they provide Mikron (the Russian fab company) with lithographic machines of Chinese production so Mikron can increase its production.
They are not so advance as the ASML but they are enough to create chips for industrial applications, so thanks to China Russia was able to increase their production of chips.
Finally, when in a range of 2 to 5 years China will catch up with the most advance chip technology and finish last advantage of the West (and they will catch up, just take a look how many Chinese Taiwanese engineers from TSMC, AMD,Intel, Siemens (for chip design programs)… has moved to China with the thousand talents program) Russia will benefit for being able to buy any kind of chip and/or lithographic machine without restriction
Is a symbiosis for China Russia
Interesting comment thanks
The Chinese situation is a bit strange for me. Some of their big SOE are complying with the sanctions because they have ties and investments & trade with the US/EU. For example, just recently the US put some new gas field under sanctions and CNOOC and Total declared force majeure and exited the project - and by definition broke their off-take agreements. China is definitely buying a ton of Russian gas, but are they doing this in spite of sanctions, or are they simply getting waivers? I know that EU gets tons of waivers to import materials, and for example Boeing gets waivers to supply "critical" parts for passenger planes for safety reasons.
The natural trade bloc of the future is Russia-CIS-Iran-India-China-Pakistan-Indonesia-Gulf Arab States. The nation across the pond really has no reason to dominate or dictate these relationships. But they will try.
EU is a continent in decline / stagnation. I will be long dead before they pull their finger out. Pity because I loved German cars, Italian food, and French wine. Oh well.
Nothing new and no new surprises. Like 100 years ago - read White Guard, for example - Russians are fighting Russians.
Simplicius, your unique insight and non-stop hard work all year has been outstanding. It's also so important - in a sea of lives, your dedication to trying to find the truth of things is invaluable. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
You know, just yesterday the AFU have launched a terrorist attack at civillian targets in Belgorod, killing 22 people. And guess how the regular Ukrainians reacted? With cheering and ecstatic glee! Yes, seeing dead Russian children was a huge morale boost for them. Heck, the AFU have been shelling random civillian targets at Donbass for almost ten years now, with no remorse from anybody on their side.
There is enough evidence, that a huge number of "simple" Ukrainias are no less crazy, sadistic and psychotic than their leaders and this is coming from as far as 2014, when people burned alive in broad daylight in Odessa were mocked as "roasted colorado bugs". So, I am sorry, but I find any cheering of Ukrainian soldiers as utterly disgusting.
Otherizing the enemy is as old as warfare. I'm sure it's hard not to take personally but it's just the way things are.
Being happy and satisfied when enemy soldiers are dying is one thing. When seeing dead civillians and especially children? I am yet to see something like that from anyone on the Russian side. From Ukrainians though? Plenty, for the last ten years.
That's what happens when people in your country were brainwashed for almost 30 years to cultivate hate against their Slavic brothers on the east.
Explain the WWII Nazi collaborators then. Seemed like every camp in Poland was staffed with Ukrainians.
The area has been a problem for a long time.
What do you mean? Of course there were plenty of western Ukrainians that followed nazi ideology and collaborated with Germans. However there are much more Ukrainians that were on the Soviet side, the majority.
You hit the nail on the head. What to do with that Nazi segment of society in the Ukraine remains the issue.
Yes you see the same in Israel, people are taught to hate.
The “Otherization” is a process that is enacted long before the warfare begins. It is not an outcome of war, but rather an outcome of propaganda and the production of false emotion. The culture has to stand firm and stay rational and reasonable in the face of the manipulations into mass psychosis.
I have friends and family who are ‘normally’ caring and reasonable. They are in danger of becoming the “Nazis” they see in those who disagree with them.
I find the weaker side tends to go heavier with the propaganda. Because of necessity.
Agreed. The more audacious the propaganda, the less acceptable their actions would be to the public they are hoodwinking. We’ve seen some pretty audacious nonsense!
"There is enough evidence, that a huge number of "simple" Ukrainias are no less crazy, sadistic and psychotic than their leaders "
yep its true. back in 2010 was a terrorist attack on Volgograd station. and BACK THEN Ukie nazis and other UPA nationalists were CHEERING THIS all over internet. in 2010 even before 2014 coup. omg. that nation are mentally sick hohols. not everyone but a lot of em.
this war couldnt happen at all if this retarded society wouldnt cheer so much when americans asked them to kill russians. they run in love to do it. now receive everythingback on your head what they wanted and deserved.
Slava Russia ! Happier new year .
EMP battlefield / theatre range weapons are the answer to this FPV crap. Send them back to the stone age.
Pretty hard to use EMPs and not disable your own gear and equipment ;)
Could you put your own equipment in a Faraday cage before doing the EMP? Maybe not practical esp for vehicles.
You can for example "zap" these drones with radars or develop specialized DEWs. The problem is, it requires a lot of power, no matter how cheaply you can produce that stuff.
Something that is not available in a trench.
There are no shortcuts in laws of physics.
We have tested EMP artillery shells (152 mm if i remember correctly). Their design looks almost like implosion nuke, only with cesium iodide crystal instead of uranium. But their EMP radius is small compared with nukes and they literally cost a fuckton of money, so even in Soviet times we couldn't allow thousands of them. Well, maybe someone will have an epiphany in terms of cost reduction?
Flux generators used explosives to provide power... And they're still not very powerful.
Maybe they could be useful for targeting the drone operator, but an ordinary shell would solve the same problem without difficulties.
Using one against an already flying drone is somewhat more difficult.
And that's ignoring the price.
Effects of EMPs were researched back in the day and not even a nuke could stop a tank several hundred meters away, so I doubt they would be effective even as specialized artillery ammunition.
Aircraft bombs/cruise missiles with flux generators do exist, but have we ever seen them being used? They should be very good for power grid attacks, but it seems to be easier just to bomb power plants (like the US) or selectively drone the hell out of the network (like Russians)
“Not having the Federal Reserve’s endless money printing abilities, Russia is forced to take bets with investments in key areas, while neglecting other—deemed to be—non-critical ones”- Simplicius
I have to push back here a bit. The Russian Central Bank has the capacity to “print” as many Rubles as the US Federal Reserve can “print” US Dollars. EVERY sovereign currency issuing nation can issue forth its currency without constraint if it so desires. The restraining factor, as always, is the availability of REAL RESOURCES with which to spend that money on.
There is nothing available for sale in Rubles that the Russian government cannot afford to purchase, be that labor or manufacturing output. What constrains Russia from fielding an adequate quantity of EW kit on the battlefield for her forces is the ability to scale up the production of this equipment not a lack of capacity to pay for it.
It is generally understood that money is merely a placeholder for the future delivery of manpower, goods and services. The point being made by Simplicius is that if a larger proportion of the money goes toward military in a near full employment economy, other areas of desired growth will suffer. Inflation will also increase and rubles will become less acceptable to friendly trading partners.
Parallels with the USD are not appropriate, as it remains the dominant trade settlement and world reserve currency. This has enabled the US to export inflation (as well as manufacturing jobs) to the rest of the world with minimal domestic economic consequences.
I doubt Russian leaders expect a long war with the Ukraine regime. Doesn't matter how much the Fed prints, the West doesn't have the capability of producing weapons and munitions to re-equip Ukraine to anything like the level it was when it began the war, and Ukraine now has far fewer well trained troops and the pool it has to mobilize is much inferior to its position in past years.
I suspect the long conflict Russian leaders speak of is with the US/NATO, not Ukraine. They expect the hegemon's MIC to try to open new conflict zones as the Ukraine one fails, possibly even directly using US/NATO military. Until the US/NATO has been defanged, Russia will sensibly maintain and strengthen its military.
Yes, NATO appears to have big plans for Russia's northern borders....
Seems to me that EW is insufficient for drones; you need a kinetic component also that knocks them aside at the same time control is lost. Jammers like the Warlock system were very effective against wireless IED triggers, no reason for them not to work here. Also against everything wireless in the vicinity. Obviously, the enemy is going to respond, but something that increases the cost of their weapons is a win.
A dream system would be something analogous to the Warlock jammer along with something with a mm-band radar and a small weapon to hit the things aside with some kinetic force - not a kill necessarily but enough to get them out of the vicinity.
Exactly. Seems like they should have some kind of low budget CIWS by now. You know like radar and a machinegun or little rockets attached to it. I can't believe it so hard to deal with these drones. These FPVs don't move fast, don't fly high and are not stealthy or armored. Seems like even small .30 caliber machine guns could take them out.
Even the cheapest possible CIWS would be more expensive than the artillery strike it would attract...
Quad-mounted Saiga shotguns?
Baby version of CIWS armed with a belt fed shotgun. Small loitering anti drones with net launchers. LIDAR for targeting the incoming, combined with radio direction finding to locate active drones incoming AND the controller location. Anti radiation "smart" mortar rounds deployed right at the front for suppressing the controller side.
Thank you for your respectful and chivalrous remarks about the Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, Simplicius. I take my hat off to these guys.
Reading your assessment all I can say is I look forward to your yearly Roundup article at the end of next year, and the next, and the next...
If there truly is a line of contact stalemate due to drones, Russia will adapt its operations. For instance, troops at the front still have to be supplied and controlled. Expect Russia to become even more effective at interdicting supply and obliterating all command posts and rear echelon units and resources. Russia is far ahead of the West in terms of resources to do so and is pulling further away.
I don't believe that is the reason for Russian restraint. It defies logic. Russia is being provoked daily into expanding this war - even within Ukraine - and fails to do so. Asking yourself why is instructive.
And what’s your conclusion?
Russia has the military power and requisite armaments to expand the war sufficiently that Ukraine would be unable to respond and would collapse shortly thereafter. I can't come to another conclusion but that Russia likes the correlation of forces and relative casualty rates and is pleased with the depopulation of the Ukraine that is happening. Basically, Putin is making this hurt - the Ukrainians, the US, NATO as a whole. Everyone. The fact they deserve it is just the maraschino cherry on top.
Add the EU - prolonging and so provoking EU into confiscation of the CBR assets in the EU, which will spark withdrawals of other state assets and accentuate the collapse of the euro
also bleeding EU budgets in 'support' for Ukr and brewing serious divisions
Well, I don't think the Ukraine population as a whole 'deserve it'.
The EU and US populations either, as far as that goes, even those that are
duped into rabid anti-Russian sentiments. All are being used by elite interests that are totally unconcerned about the negative impacts on their own societies - as long as their power and perks are not endangered, of course.
Putin certainly is playing it smart in degrading the number, capabilities and credibility of the opposition. Could be though that Russian 'restraint' has also to do with a vision of what is required to win a stable peace?
Even at this late date, accomplishing what he hoped for - and what failed to materialize - at the beginning of the conflict: the Ukrainians throwing out the corrupt Nazi thug government and negotiating something acceptable with its replacement - might be seen as a less costly and long-term better prospect than pursuing outright military victory?
Yep. In particular the casualty rates have been remarkably steady, so much they seem actively managed as the primary goal, with movement on the ground being secondary. Now historically, waging wars by this metric has mixed success, but I think here it has potential to work due to Ukraine's limited demographics and unpopular regime.
Russia, like every combatant that wishes to survive and win, IS adapting. It is building up its logistics tail, trying out new weapons, tactics and techniques. Russia is far ahead of NATO in "Strategic"/ Divisional EW, but FPV drones are very much a tactical level device, and rolling out sufficient numbers of EW devices at this level is very much the province of commercial device quantities of manufacture.
That said, if rumours of Russia reinstating its "Big" Divisions, both armour and artillery, then someone has looked at what they have, what is happening and what can be done about it.
Those drone teams may be hard to pinpoint exactly, but if you have an artillery division on hand, whichever grid square they operate in can be made a living hell...
Sure, it's using a sledgehammer to squash a peanut, but the Russian sledgehammer factory is still building up steam, and the AFU only has so many peanuts...