I’m going a little overdrive the last few days, the reason being that events are accelerating, and at least up until the May 9th period, there is a high chance for big things to happen.
My only corollary to your comment is that regardless of whether Russia is the only side advancing (slowly now), there is always a political price for war. No war gets more popular as time drags on and I'm sure the Russians would have preferred to end this much sooner if they could - I don't quite buy into the 5-dimensional chess model that some propose whereby the aim was always to have a long war to bleed the West/NATO/Ukro-Nazis dry because I still think the political aspects apply, but I could be wrong.
A person that couldn't/can't see through the Sars 19 scam won't have a hope of seeing through the lies of any subject. Now put your face nappy back on and go get your 7th booster.
Not that it matters, but what we had wasn't the flu or a normal cold. Didn't bother taking the COVID test since we don't leave the house much anyway, but the people we caught it from did test positive, so...
In any case there are probably a million uncatalogued viruses floating around out there and it wouldn't surprise me if that's what we really had.
Desmond - "Why on earth did Putin not see the big picture before entering Ukraine?"
Really? You still didn't get it that Putin simply thought that even if deviate, the West was still "normal," since anyone even marginally normal wouldn't want the war. He was wrong. It was exactly what the West wanted: the EU to write off that they embezzled the pension funds, so their people won't take the pitchforks, and the USA thought they'd just chew and spit Russia in 3 months, steal its resource and start the war with China to write off the USA national debt to China on the account of this war. I'm sure it took Putin by surprise to grasp the depth of the corrupted, belligerent, cynical cretinism, which now rules the West. That, indeed, Putin did not expect, just like he didn't expect the glee with which Zelensky screwed Ukraine, turning it into the wasteland for own PR and a buck.
As Shota Rustaveli, a medieval Georgian poet, famously noted, " Everyone fancies himself a hero watching the battle from afar."
WHY doesn't Russia use more thermobarics? The barbarians would. The US fire bombed and nuclear bombed defenseless civilians killing millions in Japan and Germany so they could have their "unconditional surrender". Even Stalin was appalled. Killed a quarter of the people in N Korea and dropped bombs in the sea as there was nothing left to bomb. This from a country that has never been invaded and it's women and children massecured.
Well firstly you reminded me about the fact that there an announcement days ago that Russia has developed a new 10km range rocket for the TOS-1A thermobaric. The famous drawback of the TOS system which makes it less than ideally usable is the short range of 2-3km of the MLRS munitions which means you have to get it really riskily close to the contact line to use it. There's no telling though how long it will take to get those new 10km+ range munitions out or if they're already being produced. But if they are then it will be a huge boon allowing to use TOS-1As from safe range, which will increase their usability through the roof.
As for thermobaric plane dropped bombs, the problem is Russia hasn't dropped many plane bombs up to now because it puts planes into AD range. However, now that Ukraine's AD has been attrited and Russia is dropping more and more bombs, and planes are flying more and more freely, I think we may start seeing more of it soon. Only problem is, I don't think they have a thermobaric version of the new 'glide bombs' though a module for them could be developed quickly if not done already.
Standing as obviously morally superior to the foe is how Russia is winning this war on the level of grand strategy. It makes things harder on the ground for sure - much easier to shock and awe and occupy the ruins over mounds of intermixed civilian and military bodies. After all, many of those civilians could, when the regime becomes desperate enough, be converted into manpower to fight against you.
However, if you want to win not just the war but the peace, this is unsustainable.
Shock and awe didn't work in Iraq. It killed the Iraqi army, sure, but did it help or hinder the US policy establishment's overall long-term aims in Iraq? I think you know the answer.
Here's a hint: not despite but because of the Allies' unrestricted war against Germany, the US is still paying for occupation bases of that country even today.
The Germans have to pay for being occupied: https://dejure.org/gesetze/GG/120.html. There is a reason why Rhein-Main is the biggest US airbase outside the US - why bother if you do not have to pay for it?
Yes, Germany has been beaten into an almost entirely subservient satellite, but it has taken eighty years and enormous expenditure of blood and treasure to literally rebuild and re-integrate their society into something acceptable to their suzerain (and I include the efforts of the USSR here).
Also, monetary cost is not the only cost. Countless lives wrenched out of their natural courses, families broken, strained, or never formed, irreversible cultural interpenetration (good or bad), and the steady militarization of the American cultural and foreign policy mindset are all costs paid to sustain this occupation.
I read the book. Very convincing. Very. Trees with limbs on them standing next to 'ground zero' at one of the Japan sites. And so on. Very, very convincing. Just one thing though: that was then. I don't find it totally convincing as regards to now. That's '1'.
And '2' if they can fake it now - make 'bangs' that look/sound/kill like 'atom bombs' - then what's the difference to the dead? That it wasn't really a nuke matters? Nope. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...
Thank you for your frequent meticulous updates. There is so much crap flying around everywhere now it’s difficult to follow. The Wagner situation continues to puzzle. I guess we’ll soon see.
Unnerved, a wee bit. Breathe, inhale, exhale. The optics, nope, as this would feed the narrative, which narrative, I ask. Stay supremely grounded, God will guide, actions will commence. Glory to Mother Russia❤️🇷🇺💙
Pre-battle nerves. No matter what the battle start date, there will always be last minute preparations, nervousness, and triple checking. Outside of this the rest lays in God's hands and fate.
Bring it on! The Prigozhin drama, crying about ammo shortages was apparently a pysop. Russian fighting intensity is rising rapidly into real war mode now. Massive blows being delivered around the clock. Grind and pulverize, destroy the enemy. When the enemy is exhausted, go on the offensive and eliminate them as a fighting force.
I guess we'll know if Prigozhin's outbursts were a premeditated psyop or a genuine tirade against the RMoD by whether or not he faces any charges for it.
Russia must escalate on weaker nato territory(eastern europe for a start POL+3B+ROM), untill they have (nato EU), no infra, military, energy, even civilian deads + losses and the biggest fear of their life they will double down..nato will very quickly capitulate as public opinion will pressure EU political leaders as their assets + life, confort will be at risk for the first time since 1939-45.These nato EU people talk a lot but if real danger comes at home, they have 'no corones'. The already very fragile western financial system will collapse in hours, trillions will be wiped out, believe me their money is the only thing they care about. If Russia does not escalate, sorry I agree with Mark Sleboda (since 2014)it will never end.
I'm a little tired of Prigozhin always whining. If its not all an act then there had better be an accidental release of a fab 500 on his head once this is all over.
It is getting quite tedious, though I'm hesitant to outright say it should stop only because *IF* his accusations are true then they certainly must be made. It's better to uncover the deficiencies with the MOD now and clean house, by whichever method works. But if he's full of gas then he's certainly taken his tedious charade quite far at this point. One theory is that he's simply building up morale in his men to show them he's a good leader and is 'fighting for them'. I guess we'll find out soon because if the offensives truly start kicking off in the near future, all questions should be answered, and we'll see once and for all who was right, who was lying/misleading people all along.
A great commander does not lead by publicly denouncing and insulting senior leadership. Instead, he shows his men that they can fight with or without perceived needs of weaponry in the face of any hardship, and he does so by standing with them in battle. No military commander should be tolerated who says such things publicly, esp during times of war.
I bet it is a psyop. The timing of these outbursts always seem to precede Russian/Wagner victories or failed Ukrainian advances. If it had been a private communication unintentionally leaked to the outside world, maybe I'd believe it, but being as public as he is would be incredibly stupid if what he says is true.
It's not a good way to operate if it's real. Except he does this repeatedly, and then the Ukrainians find out that they seem to use a lot of stuff for people who are running out.
The Psy-Op View: If I'm sitting in the Russian chair, I know that my NATO enemy is entranced with optics, and often believes its own propaganda. I also know that my goal is to get to Ukrainians attacking me, so I can do the most damage to their forces in the least time with the least ordnance.
So, how to bait NATO? Maskirovka is possible but ISR-limited. But human drama... the Americans have always and still do depend on others for HUMINT. They're bad at this. And the Reality TV script is one they've internalized at some level. They keep saying we're primitive and disorganized, why not feed all that? They would never believe it coming from the real Army, nobody talks like that. [lightbulb!] But THIS GUY can sell it..."
Why wouldn't I bait them with stuff like this that the NATO propaganda machine can't resist publicizing, and fits their beliefs abut Russia? If it's cartoonish at home, it actually erodes Wagner's base there (good from regular military point of view), while providing an outlet for patriotism and demands for further support (also good). I see no real drawbacks from real power's perspective, as long as NATO keeps falling for it. Burn them until they dismiss these things out of hand.
Then, if Russia really ARE running out of shells or other key equipment some time, just have Proghozin complain again. And by then, NATO will refuse to believe it.
The counter is that Russia agreed to give him stuff quickly this time, which works against the staged scenario. SNAFU became a military acronym for a reason, nobody likes being publicly accused of poor performance even if staged, and fighting beside an outside force like Wagner is an extra challenge for any military.
Even after the battlefield is resolved, it's going to be a challenge to figure out what really went on here. I'm leaning toward "growing pains working with Wagner in full-scale wars." But if you're going to use human diversions, Prighozin certainly widens the creative possibilities.
Though I agree, I'll say that Balitsky appears to be referring to 'Dnieperpetrovsk' and other cities when he says they're clogged with equipment and personnel. Dnipro is a major population center, bustling like Kiev, with no types of evacuation etc., so if he's implying that these cities and streets have equipment on them, it's probably difficult to target them surrounded by civilians if they are keeping the equipment in major civilian/population centers. With that said, Russia does hit Kiev fairly often so it's hard to say.
The problem is, when someone says a place is clogged with equipment, typically they mean equipment in transit, i.e. in motion. Missiles don't hit things in motion. You can't launch a Kalibr or cruise missile from 2000km away and make it hit a tank swerving through city streets, that's simply not how it works. These missiles hit pre-assigned targets. If you want to hit moving targets you need different weapon systems that can get closer, like drones or fighter-bombers that can drop guided munitions which can be guided TO the moving target by way of some type of sighting pod. But getting planes/drones over major Ukrainian population centers is not really possible as their AD is still too powerful there and will shoot you down. So thus the problem.
Trouble is, he also says that green areas are clogged with troops and equipment. this implies that they are in open territory in the forests. I guess I am wondering why, if this is surely known by Russian command, they are not attacking these areas with planning bombs and other weaponry (of course, they might be and I just don't know about it).
Right now it's not even good to think about Prigozhin, totally out of control. Which also certainly justified the transfer of General Mizintsev to Wagner by the MOD. What the dumb West insists on always seeing as a dismissal or demotion?! And apparently some Russians now too!
IMO, Ukraine is totally exhausted, even on the verge of collapse and has no chance of success during the counter-offensive. Just think how they will move the armored vehicles with the Russian air force waiting? And without armored vehicles even worse for the infantry! And I also believe that after crushing the counter-offensive, Russia goes on the offensive to end the SMO! And what is asked of a people and all supporters is unity! Unity! Anyway, I still don't believe any counter-offensive is possible with so much mud!
Most likely Ukraine is just trying to sabotage the victory day celebrations in Moscow with all sorts of asymmetric actions, PR, psyops and terrorist acts against civilians! It takes a lot of attention! Admittedly, Intel and the Russian MOD are fully aware of the ongoing operations in Ukraine. And it may even happen that the famous counteroffensive no longer manages to go beyond asymmetric operations. It is very difficult for Ukraine not to collapse emotionally after the fall of Bakhmut. Where they buried more than half of the forces in the last few months.
Of course Russia has been quietly amassing troops and equipment. Why wouldn't they? Only fools wouldn't think so. I reckon RF has the mother of all surprises in store and the Jookranian scum and NATO will literally shit their pants.
This is going to be the biggest military operation of this century.
I have no idea what's going on with Wagner. If that isn't over in the next 2 weeks he's probably being honest.
I think it's pretty clear that Russia is "winning" but once they deal with the Ukraine offensive the counter-punch needs to be devastating. I'm reminded of when Ender killed Stilson in Ender's game. When asked why he beat up the kid so badly he stated. "To stop all future fights from happening." If the Russians want NATO to stop future provocations the Russian military needs to end this conflict with a clear and decisive win to say it's in everyone's best interest to not provoke them anymore. A "muddle through" until an agreement is signed just means we do this again in 10 years.
The book is studied at officer training schools. The point has nothing to do with sci-fi and everything to do with the projection of power. Risk, reward, and cost are all important things in geopolitics. Dismissing it because it's from a fictional book is stupid. The end of this conflict, how it happens and the takeaways from each side in arguably more important than what is happening on the ground today.
The sci-fi novel is studied at USMC only, hardly a glowing reference.
As the empire's own propaganda outlet, wikipedia, shows "The U.S. Marine Corps Professional Reading List makes the novel recommended reading at several lower ranks, and again at Officer Candidate/Midshipman.[21] The book was placed on the reading list by Captain John F. Schmitt, author of FMFM-1 (Fleet Marine Force Manual, on maneuver doctrine) for "provid[ing] useful allegories to explain why militaries do what they do in a particularly effective shorthand way".[22] In introducing the novel for use in leadership training, Marine Corps University's Lejeune program opines that it offers "lessons in training methodology, leadership, and ethics as well. . . . Ender's Game has been a stalwart item on the Marine Corps Reading List since its inception"
You're also missing my point. You're focusing too much on the fact that it's from a book and not on my point that "how Russia wins" is almost as relevant as "when Russia wins". A "muddle through" until an agreement is signed approach doesn't project any strength and invites future provocations. Why is this hard to understand? If you beat up a bully the chance of being bullied again diminishes.
No, I focused on two points; 1) it is just a sci-fi fiction novel, and 2) the false claim you made that book is studied at officer training schools (plural) when in fact it is a bedtime story for USMC grunts. No drag queens involved though.
Orson Scott Card has entertaining books, but it is far from clear to me how a literal Mormon missionary with no personal military background, no family military background or even strong military research interest (as evidenced from his writing), in turn composing an entirely fictional story, has lessons for any military.
Yes, there are references to various military writers but it is also clear from the work that these are adornments to an entirely unrealistic but entertaining plot as opposed to informed by the realities of actual combat against peer adversaries.
Card's protagonists are smart alecky types who win through some combination of military aikido/jiujitsu against bumbling opponents who massively outnumber and out-resource them - but this never happens in the real world.
If officers are studying this - then that military is screwed. The strategies used in the Card books are precisely what the criticism "too many notes", addresses.
So you don't believe how the rest of the world perceives the Russian military at the end of this war as important. Got it. The entire reason I mentioned the book was to illustrate that how NATO and the rest of the world view Russian military power will be important in how any future confrontation is handled. Arguing about the validity of a fucking book when I'm simply pointing out that it rightfully considers that how things are handled now impact how things are handled in the future. All future is downstream from today. Ending the war from a position of strength is incredibly important to any future war.
Perception of Russian capabilities is defined by intelligence work and by actual accomplishments.
How exactly you derive principles of intelligence work and/or real work accomplishment analysis from a science fiction book is beyond me. Or perhaps you ascribe to the apparent Western method of PR and analysis - which is to say - projection and fabulation as opposed to hearing about painful truths?
As for your ongoing attempt to defend the book: I have read it, I own it and was entertained by it. But I never confused this book for anything more than the fiction it is - the "science" part is equally weak.
Nor am I a believer in Twitter warfare/propaganda/public relations as a primary driver in military capability - which you seem to be advocating.
The strengths of the Russian military were not built on social media - they are built on clear objectives, objective assessment of "who opponents are"/"how these opponents fight", logistic AND technological capabilities to address your own and opponent's weaknesses, and building up the mass of men and material in order to be able to meet the clear objectives.
Russia's focus on AD vs. Western focus on Air Supremacy is an excellent example. Another excellent example is hypersonic missiles - which were developed to neutralize Western control of the oceans and ability to move men/material. Yet another example is Russian battlefield ECM. None of these capabilities arose from some magic device like the ansible. Each of these was developed for a specific purpose against a specific opponent, and furthermore were developed and deployed en masse.
The list doesn't end with the above - there are many more examples including artillery logistics.
The point is that this is what real military capability is against a peer adversary as opposed to "clubbing baby seals" as Col. MacGregor has depicted.
Is there such mention in Card's books? Nope - because their weapons are magically unconstrained by ammunition or failure. Their communications are literally instantaneous, always dependable and clear, and faster than light speed. The enemy never has countermeasures for the weapons or communications methods used by the hero humans. There is no mention of logistics anywhere except in the sense of some Thai sergeant taking care of it or the magical United Nations space force providing.
The only one "Arguing about the validity of a fucking book" is you.
No one else believes it to be of any real value in assessing, preparing or directing a real world military.
He makes a good point: if Putin is such a tyrannical 'dictator' worse than Stalin, then how come Prigozhin isn't already in a Gulag or 'liquidated'? Seems NATO propaganda is at a bit of an awkward crosspoint here
Well that's the thing with lies and fake narratives, one must perform mental gymnastics and indulge in contradictions to believe.
As in the clot shot narrative; simultaneously the govts. had to convince the sceptical to take it as it's effective, and the gullible were told to take more 'cos their previous stabs were no longer effective. Clown shows everywhere.
This bore, grr, brings up COVID every single time, whether it’s relevant to the conversation or not. It’s like being engaged in conversation by a tedious drunk in a bar. Geez.
This bore, CCG, ignores "COVID", the biggest crime against humanity ever, every single time, whether it’s relevant to our lives or not. It’s like being engaged in conversation by an ignorant fool in a bar.
I don't understand all these people including some pro RU, who believe that once VVP is out(by any mean), Russia will capitulate. Kindergarden self deception.
And a bore.
I think I just got my 4th or 5th jab LOL.
Wow, to attempt to show proof to back up your gullible beliefs you supply a link to an article written....by you LOL.
I won't read it as I have my daughter's Grimm Fairy Tales at hand. Much more believable.
Very strange dooming.
1. Russia is the only one advancing
2. Russia is taking much less casualties
3. Russia is producing far more munitions
4. Russia is producing far more armor/weaponry/materiel in general
What from that list above could possibly make you feel like everything is over? Ukraine is on the ropes and is awaiting a final knockout punch.
My only corollary to your comment is that regardless of whether Russia is the only side advancing (slowly now), there is always a political price for war. No war gets more popular as time drags on and I'm sure the Russians would have preferred to end this much sooner if they could - I don't quite buy into the 5-dimensional chess model that some propose whereby the aim was always to have a long war to bleed the West/NATO/Ukro-Nazis dry because I still think the political aspects apply, but I could be wrong.
blurred out markings of ukie machines are similar to panzer division arrow markings. jusy the usual nazi bs
Meh, "Covid". You had the fucken flu FFS.
A person that couldn't/can't see through the Sars 19 scam won't have a hope of seeing through the lies of any subject. Now put your face nappy back on and go get your 7th booster.
Lmao….smart people just want pop some Ivermectin and move on.
Not that it matters, but what we had wasn't the flu or a normal cold. Didn't bother taking the COVID test since we don't leave the house much anyway, but the people we caught it from did test positive, so...
In any case there are probably a million uncatalogued viruses floating around out there and it wouldn't surprise me if that's what we really had.
More third-rate trolling.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
Your use of the word "empire" belies NAFO Bro concern trolling. It isn't Russia that's trying to maintain an "empire."
Desmond - "Why on earth did Putin not see the big picture before entering Ukraine?"
Really? You still didn't get it that Putin simply thought that even if deviate, the West was still "normal," since anyone even marginally normal wouldn't want the war. He was wrong. It was exactly what the West wanted: the EU to write off that they embezzled the pension funds, so their people won't take the pitchforks, and the USA thought they'd just chew and spit Russia in 3 months, steal its resource and start the war with China to write off the USA national debt to China on the account of this war. I'm sure it took Putin by surprise to grasp the depth of the corrupted, belligerent, cynical cretinism, which now rules the West. That, indeed, Putin did not expect, just like he didn't expect the glee with which Zelensky screwed Ukraine, turning it into the wasteland for own PR and a buck.
As Shota Rustaveli, a medieval Georgian poet, famously noted, " Everyone fancies himself a hero watching the battle from afar."
WHY doesn't Russia use more thermobarics? The barbarians would. The US fire bombed and nuclear bombed defenseless civilians killing millions in Japan and Germany so they could have their "unconditional surrender". Even Stalin was appalled. Killed a quarter of the people in N Korea and dropped bombs in the sea as there was nothing left to bomb. This from a country that has never been invaded and it's women and children massecured.
Well firstly you reminded me about the fact that there an announcement days ago that Russia has developed a new 10km range rocket for the TOS-1A thermobaric. The famous drawback of the TOS system which makes it less than ideally usable is the short range of 2-3km of the MLRS munitions which means you have to get it really riskily close to the contact line to use it. There's no telling though how long it will take to get those new 10km+ range munitions out or if they're already being produced. But if they are then it will be a huge boon allowing to use TOS-1As from safe range, which will increase their usability through the roof.
As for thermobaric plane dropped bombs, the problem is Russia hasn't dropped many plane bombs up to now because it puts planes into AD range. However, now that Ukraine's AD has been attrited and Russia is dropping more and more bombs, and planes are flying more and more freely, I think we may start seeing more of it soon. Only problem is, I don't think they have a thermobaric version of the new 'glide bombs' though a module for them could be developed quickly if not done already.
Standing as obviously morally superior to the foe is how Russia is winning this war on the level of grand strategy. It makes things harder on the ground for sure - much easier to shock and awe and occupy the ruins over mounds of intermixed civilian and military bodies. After all, many of those civilians could, when the regime becomes desperate enough, be converted into manpower to fight against you.
However, if you want to win not just the war but the peace, this is unsustainable.
Shock and awe didn't work in Iraq. It killed the Iraqi army, sure, but did it help or hinder the US policy establishment's overall long-term aims in Iraq? I think you know the answer.
Here's a hint: not despite but because of the Allies' unrestricted war against Germany, the US is still paying for occupation bases of that country even today.
The Germans have to pay for being occupied: https://dejure.org/gesetze/GG/120.html. There is a reason why Rhein-Main is the biggest US airbase outside the US - why bother if you do not have to pay for it?
Yes, Germany has been beaten into an almost entirely subservient satellite, but it has taken eighty years and enormous expenditure of blood and treasure to literally rebuild and re-integrate their society into something acceptable to their suzerain (and I include the efforts of the USSR here).
Also, monetary cost is not the only cost. Countless lives wrenched out of their natural courses, families broken, strained, or never formed, irreversible cultural interpenetration (good or bad), and the steady militarization of the American cultural and foreign policy mindset are all costs paid to sustain this occupation.
This was done in Germany during WWII specifically by the United States Air Forces nothing was left standing.
"... a country that has never been invaded and it's women and children massecured."
Southern US folk might beg to differ on that one.
Nuclear weapons are all fake. There was no caesium 137 in the atmosphere before the first nuclear power station accident at Chalk River in 1952.
I read the book. Very convincing. Very. Trees with limbs on them standing next to 'ground zero' at one of the Japan sites. And so on. Very, very convincing. Just one thing though: that was then. I don't find it totally convincing as regards to now. That's '1'.
And '2' if they can fake it now - make 'bangs' that look/sound/kill like 'atom bombs' - then what's the difference to the dead? That it wasn't really a nuke matters? Nope. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...
Thank you for your frequent meticulous updates. There is so much crap flying around everywhere now it’s difficult to follow. The Wagner situation continues to puzzle. I guess we’ll soon see.
Unnerved, a wee bit. Breathe, inhale, exhale. The optics, nope, as this would feed the narrative, which narrative, I ask. Stay supremely grounded, God will guide, actions will commence. Glory to Mother Russia❤️🇷🇺💙
One important fact stands out in this extremely informative and timely article: Russians give a shit about their citizens and Ukrainians not so much.
Pre-battle nerves. No matter what the battle start date, there will always be last minute preparations, nervousness, and triple checking. Outside of this the rest lays in God's hands and fate.
Bring it on! The Prigozhin drama, crying about ammo shortages was apparently a pysop. Russian fighting intensity is rising rapidly into real war mode now. Massive blows being delivered around the clock. Grind and pulverize, destroy the enemy. When the enemy is exhausted, go on the offensive and eliminate them as a fighting force.
I guess we'll know if Prigozhin's outbursts were a premeditated psyop or a genuine tirade against the RMoD by whether or not he faces any charges for it.
Russia must escalate on weaker nato territory(eastern europe for a start POL+3B+ROM), untill they have (nato EU), no infra, military, energy, even civilian deads + losses and the biggest fear of their life they will double down..nato will very quickly capitulate as public opinion will pressure EU political leaders as their assets + life, confort will be at risk for the first time since 1939-45.These nato EU people talk a lot but if real danger comes at home, they have 'no corones'. The already very fragile western financial system will collapse in hours, trillions will be wiped out, believe me their money is the only thing they care about. If Russia does not escalate, sorry I agree with Mark Sleboda (since 2014)it will never end.
I'm a little tired of Prigozhin always whining. If its not all an act then there had better be an accidental release of a fab 500 on his head once this is all over.
It is getting quite tedious, though I'm hesitant to outright say it should stop only because *IF* his accusations are true then they certainly must be made. It's better to uncover the deficiencies with the MOD now and clean house, by whichever method works. But if he's full of gas then he's certainly taken his tedious charade quite far at this point. One theory is that he's simply building up morale in his men to show them he's a good leader and is 'fighting for them'. I guess we'll find out soon because if the offensives truly start kicking off in the near future, all questions should be answered, and we'll see once and for all who was right, who was lying/misleading people all along.
A great commander does not lead by publicly denouncing and insulting senior leadership. Instead, he shows his men that they can fight with or without perceived needs of weaponry in the face of any hardship, and he does so by standing with them in battle. No military commander should be tolerated who says such things publicly, esp during times of war.
He is not a military commander...so he has that excuse 😆
I bet it is a psyop. The timing of these outbursts always seem to precede Russian/Wagner victories or failed Ukrainian advances. If it had been a private communication unintentionally leaked to the outside world, maybe I'd believe it, but being as public as he is would be incredibly stupid if what he says is true.
It's not a good way to operate if it's real. Except he does this repeatedly, and then the Ukrainians find out that they seem to use a lot of stuff for people who are running out.
The Psy-Op View: If I'm sitting in the Russian chair, I know that my NATO enemy is entranced with optics, and often believes its own propaganda. I also know that my goal is to get to Ukrainians attacking me, so I can do the most damage to their forces in the least time with the least ordnance.
So, how to bait NATO? Maskirovka is possible but ISR-limited. But human drama... the Americans have always and still do depend on others for HUMINT. They're bad at this. And the Reality TV script is one they've internalized at some level. They keep saying we're primitive and disorganized, why not feed all that? They would never believe it coming from the real Army, nobody talks like that. [lightbulb!] But THIS GUY can sell it..."
Why wouldn't I bait them with stuff like this that the NATO propaganda machine can't resist publicizing, and fits their beliefs abut Russia? If it's cartoonish at home, it actually erodes Wagner's base there (good from regular military point of view), while providing an outlet for patriotism and demands for further support (also good). I see no real drawbacks from real power's perspective, as long as NATO keeps falling for it. Burn them until they dismiss these things out of hand.
Then, if Russia really ARE running out of shells or other key equipment some time, just have Proghozin complain again. And by then, NATO will refuse to believe it.
The counter is that Russia agreed to give him stuff quickly this time, which works against the staged scenario. SNAFU became a military acronym for a reason, nobody likes being publicly accused of poor performance even if staged, and fighting beside an outside force like Wagner is an extra challenge for any military.
Even after the battlefield is resolved, it's going to be a challenge to figure out what really went on here. I'm leaning toward "growing pains working with Wagner in full-scale wars." But if you're going to use human diversions, Prighozin certainly widens the creative possibilities.
Doesnt make sense at all since if you can see you can hit. Unless Russia is truly out of missiles and bombs.
Wagner boss is right. Russia is waging a police action when the other side is in full war mode.
"According to Balitsky, all green spaces and plantings in these areas are now "clogged with Ukrainian equipment and personnel"
Though I agree, I'll say that Balitsky appears to be referring to 'Dnieperpetrovsk' and other cities when he says they're clogged with equipment and personnel. Dnipro is a major population center, bustling like Kiev, with no types of evacuation etc., so if he's implying that these cities and streets have equipment on them, it's probably difficult to target them surrounded by civilians if they are keeping the equipment in major civilian/population centers. With that said, Russia does hit Kiev fairly often so it's hard to say.
The problem is, when someone says a place is clogged with equipment, typically they mean equipment in transit, i.e. in motion. Missiles don't hit things in motion. You can't launch a Kalibr or cruise missile from 2000km away and make it hit a tank swerving through city streets, that's simply not how it works. These missiles hit pre-assigned targets. If you want to hit moving targets you need different weapon systems that can get closer, like drones or fighter-bombers that can drop guided munitions which can be guided TO the moving target by way of some type of sighting pod. But getting planes/drones over major Ukrainian population centers is not really possible as their AD is still too powerful there and will shoot you down. So thus the problem.
Trouble is, he also says that green areas are clogged with troops and equipment. this implies that they are in open territory in the forests. I guess I am wondering why, if this is surely known by Russian command, they are not attacking these areas with planning bombs and other weaponry (of course, they might be and I just don't know about it).
Right now it's not even good to think about Prigozhin, totally out of control. Which also certainly justified the transfer of General Mizintsev to Wagner by the MOD. What the dumb West insists on always seeing as a dismissal or demotion?! And apparently some Russians now too!
IMO, Ukraine is totally exhausted, even on the verge of collapse and has no chance of success during the counter-offensive. Just think how they will move the armored vehicles with the Russian air force waiting? And without armored vehicles even worse for the infantry! And I also believe that after crushing the counter-offensive, Russia goes on the offensive to end the SMO! And what is asked of a people and all supporters is unity! Unity! Anyway, I still don't believe any counter-offensive is possible with so much mud!
Most likely Ukraine is just trying to sabotage the victory day celebrations in Moscow with all sorts of asymmetric actions, PR, psyops and terrorist acts against civilians! It takes a lot of attention! Admittedly, Intel and the Russian MOD are fully aware of the ongoing operations in Ukraine. And it may even happen that the famous counteroffensive no longer manages to go beyond asymmetric operations. It is very difficult for Ukraine not to collapse emotionally after the fall of Bakhmut. Where they buried more than half of the forces in the last few months.
Of course Russia has been quietly amassing troops and equipment. Why wouldn't they? Only fools wouldn't think so. I reckon RF has the mother of all surprises in store and the Jookranian scum and NATO will literally shit their pants.
This is going to be the biggest military operation of this century.
I have no idea what's going on with Wagner. If that isn't over in the next 2 weeks he's probably being honest.
I think it's pretty clear that Russia is "winning" but once they deal with the Ukraine offensive the counter-punch needs to be devastating. I'm reminded of when Ender killed Stilson in Ender's game. When asked why he beat up the kid so badly he stated. "To stop all future fights from happening." If the Russians want NATO to stop future provocations the Russian military needs to end this conflict with a clear and decisive win to say it's in everyone's best interest to not provoke them anymore. A "muddle through" until an agreement is signed just means we do this again in 10 years.
Sorry, basing strategy on a science fiction novel is even stupider than neo-con think-tank strategy.
The book is studied at officer training schools. The point has nothing to do with sci-fi and everything to do with the projection of power. Risk, reward, and cost are all important things in geopolitics. Dismissing it because it's from a fictional book is stupid. The end of this conflict, how it happens and the takeaways from each side in arguably more important than what is happening on the ground today.
The sci-fi novel is studied at USMC only, hardly a glowing reference.
As the empire's own propaganda outlet, wikipedia, shows "The U.S. Marine Corps Professional Reading List makes the novel recommended reading at several lower ranks, and again at Officer Candidate/Midshipman.[21] The book was placed on the reading list by Captain John F. Schmitt, author of FMFM-1 (Fleet Marine Force Manual, on maneuver doctrine) for "provid[ing] useful allegories to explain why militaries do what they do in a particularly effective shorthand way".[22] In introducing the novel for use in leadership training, Marine Corps University's Lejeune program opines that it offers "lessons in training methodology, leadership, and ethics as well. . . . Ender's Game has been a stalwart item on the Marine Corps Reading List since its inception"
You're also missing my point. You're focusing too much on the fact that it's from a book and not on my point that "how Russia wins" is almost as relevant as "when Russia wins". A "muddle through" until an agreement is signed approach doesn't project any strength and invites future provocations. Why is this hard to understand? If you beat up a bully the chance of being bullied again diminishes.
No, I focused on two points; 1) it is just a sci-fi fiction novel, and 2) the false claim you made that book is studied at officer training schools (plural) when in fact it is a bedtime story for USMC grunts. No drag queens involved though.
Orson Scott Card has entertaining books, but it is far from clear to me how a literal Mormon missionary with no personal military background, no family military background or even strong military research interest (as evidenced from his writing), in turn composing an entirely fictional story, has lessons for any military.
Yes, there are references to various military writers but it is also clear from the work that these are adornments to an entirely unrealistic but entertaining plot as opposed to informed by the realities of actual combat against peer adversaries.
Card's protagonists are smart alecky types who win through some combination of military aikido/jiujitsu against bumbling opponents who massively outnumber and out-resource them - but this never happens in the real world.
If officers are studying this - then that military is screwed. The strategies used in the Card books are precisely what the criticism "too many notes", addresses.
So you don't believe how the rest of the world perceives the Russian military at the end of this war as important. Got it. The entire reason I mentioned the book was to illustrate that how NATO and the rest of the world view Russian military power will be important in how any future confrontation is handled. Arguing about the validity of a fucking book when I'm simply pointing out that it rightfully considers that how things are handled now impact how things are handled in the future. All future is downstream from today. Ending the war from a position of strength is incredibly important to any future war.
Perception of Russian capabilities is defined by intelligence work and by actual accomplishments.
How exactly you derive principles of intelligence work and/or real work accomplishment analysis from a science fiction book is beyond me. Or perhaps you ascribe to the apparent Western method of PR and analysis - which is to say - projection and fabulation as opposed to hearing about painful truths?
As for your ongoing attempt to defend the book: I have read it, I own it and was entertained by it. But I never confused this book for anything more than the fiction it is - the "science" part is equally weak.
Nor am I a believer in Twitter warfare/propaganda/public relations as a primary driver in military capability - which you seem to be advocating.
The strengths of the Russian military were not built on social media - they are built on clear objectives, objective assessment of "who opponents are"/"how these opponents fight", logistic AND technological capabilities to address your own and opponent's weaknesses, and building up the mass of men and material in order to be able to meet the clear objectives.
Russia's focus on AD vs. Western focus on Air Supremacy is an excellent example. Another excellent example is hypersonic missiles - which were developed to neutralize Western control of the oceans and ability to move men/material. Yet another example is Russian battlefield ECM. None of these capabilities arose from some magic device like the ansible. Each of these was developed for a specific purpose against a specific opponent, and furthermore were developed and deployed en masse.
The list doesn't end with the above - there are many more examples including artillery logistics.
The point is that this is what real military capability is against a peer adversary as opposed to "clubbing baby seals" as Col. MacGregor has depicted.
Is there such mention in Card's books? Nope - because their weapons are magically unconstrained by ammunition or failure. Their communications are literally instantaneous, always dependable and clear, and faster than light speed. The enemy never has countermeasures for the weapons or communications methods used by the hero humans. There is no mention of logistics anywhere except in the sense of some Thai sergeant taking care of it or the magical United Nations space force providing.
The only one "Arguing about the validity of a fucking book" is you.
No one else believes it to be of any real value in assessing, preparing or directing a real world military.
Larry Johnson had a very interesting take on Prigozhin "melt down" and what may really happening.
https://sonar21.com/evgeny-prigozhin-truth-teller-mad-man-or-maskirovka/
He makes a good point: if Putin is such a tyrannical 'dictator' worse than Stalin, then how come Prigozhin isn't already in a Gulag or 'liquidated'? Seems NATO propaganda is at a bit of an awkward crosspoint here
Well that's the thing with lies and fake narratives, one must perform mental gymnastics and indulge in contradictions to believe.
As in the clot shot narrative; simultaneously the govts. had to convince the sceptical to take it as it's effective, and the gullible were told to take more 'cos their previous stabs were no longer effective. Clown shows everywhere.
doublethink man, doublethink
This bore, grr, brings up COVID every single time, whether it’s relevant to the conversation or not. It’s like being engaged in conversation by a tedious drunk in a bar. Geez.
This bore, CCG, ignores "COVID", the biggest crime against humanity ever, every single time, whether it’s relevant to our lives or not. It’s like being engaged in conversation by an ignorant fool in a bar.
Run off and get your 7th.
Geez.
Perhaps Prigozhin has more leverage on Putin than we know? A lot of pressure on Putin not to run again for President.
I don't understand all these people including some pro RU, who believe that once VVP is out(by any mean), Russia will capitulate. Kindergarden self deception.