I am in awe at the quality and quantity of your analysis. What do you make of the Karabakh situation? Complicated conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia, America, Turkey, Iran, and Israel all jostling for control. Sadly many civilians are suffering like Ukraine.
To compliment Simplicius’s detailed analysis, in “Ukraine: Biden's Sacrificial Lamb Cast into the Volcano," I zoom out and examine the Ukrainian tragedy in the context of the U.S. Empire's malevolent actions and its old, decrepit man at the helm of a sham presidency leading us towards World War III.
Have yet to read the article but it seems that it is not really a matter of tactics; the sheer disparity in forces and means is the central problem. Ukraine simply lacks the means to win in offensive combat no matter what tactics are applied.
I wouldn't worry about the age of the F-16 airframes. They won't last long enough for metal fatigue to become a problem. That's not me being snarky it's something I picked up from Senor Millenium7*
It's an excellent channel well worth your time. 2 months ago he predicted that the F-16s would be in Ukraine by the autumn. He maybe off on that but it's a political decision and Millenium7* has always been much stronger on the technology than the politics.
"It is also important to recognise that Russian forces are fighting more competently and with reasonable tenacity in the defence." I love this quote from RUSI. "Reasonable tenacity?" LOL, the Russians have barely budged from their OUTPOST line and conducted endless counterattacks for each minor hohol advance. The defense has been ferocious. Savage.
The fact that the Russians have fought tooth and nail for each inch of ground tells me two things:
1. The Russians expected to suffer much higher casualties and instead are suffering extremely light casualties. The outpost line is a tripwire and nothing more; if Russia was taking even moderate casualties they'd have abandoned the outpost line long ago and moved into their actual defenses.
2. Russian morale is sky-high. You don't get units fighting like this with low morale. There would have been breakthrough somewhere if Russian units even had moderate morale because endless fighting against even dunderheads like the hohol "Nafo trained" units will take its toll and cause units to crack apart.
Smoke on the Water. LOL! Finally some music I can relate to for a war porn video.
"They said the NATO officers don't understand the reality on the ground." I get the impression this is often a problem in most every war. Officers not understanding the reality on the ground. (and politicians)
The Russians do not mess around. Pretty interesting the changing out of the tank barrels. I have never seen that before. I am still impressed at how quickly they change out the chopper blades.
I remember an episode from the original Star Trek, some planet in a galaxy far, far away would put people in a cylinder tube when their number came up and they would get vaporized, peacefully, painlessly. The ways of old war was just too nasty so the countries had reached a compromise as a way of killing each other. Of course Captain James T. Kirk saved the day, changed their thinking, and brought peace to the two warring fractions. At this point I think that modality would be better for the Ukrainians. This war needs to end, yesterday, but the Swamp keeps sending in the cash, it makes me sick. It is all so twisted on so many levels.
I had heard that Ukraine was firing most of their M777s at the max charge so they could be farther to the rear. And that this would mean the barrels wearing out even faster. I didn't think they had as many as 150 but probably have at most half of them left.
I had also wondered about the alledged benefit of NATO kit or training.
I guess future tank designers will focus mostly on protection for new designs. Probably cutting mobility as I doubt they would reduce firepower. Heavy armour on all 6 sides, ERA and other protection systems mounted. Some sort of large gun to fire HE to destroy bunkers and buildings on the assault. And maybe a fire control system, FCS, that will also enable the crew to also fire indirectly; to be used as type of artillery. On our Leopard C1s we had gun laying instruments - a traverse indicator and clinometer to adust for elevation. We could only fire HE out to 4000 metres with out FCS, anything farther would be engaged with our gun laying instruments. But the Leopard 2 and M1 doesn't have these. I suppose a tank with an ability to carry Infantry, like Merkava, would get some consideration. Definitely a diesel engine. With an auxiliry generator to run systems while static.
Of course it would also need to have an on-board microwave, toaster oven, and hot gravy dispenser!
Excellent and thorough piece! Clearly, once Russia started adapting to this new kind of hybrid war, the end was pretty certain given Russia's (with some help from its allies) superior production capabilities, better weapons and manpower advantage....Putin's gradualist strategy of attritting Ukraine's forces has also yielded big political benefits...
How we all laughed at Bagdad Bob with his prognostications of imminent victory. And yet, here we have the entire MSM as the new Kiev Ken, making the same absurd claims that defy all logic and common sense, yet this time we believe. I suppose when it finally ends in Ukrainian defeat it too will be sold as a great NATO victory for freedom and democracy, two abstract notions we no longer even comprehend.
Regardless of the outcome of this historic conflict, the hegemony of the west will be forever altered. If we are able to avoid nuclear annihilation, then a new world order will come to be. Hopefully the west will acquiesce and accept a more humble and enlightened future with it's own well being foremost as it's ideology.
Awesome love reading these. Thanks simplicius.
I am in awe at the quality and quantity of your analysis. What do you make of the Karabakh situation? Complicated conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia, America, Turkey, Iran, and Israel all jostling for control. Sadly many civilians are suffering like Ukraine.
Thanks for your great work! I'm sharing it in tomorrows ASkeptic Report.
https://askeptic.substack.com/
To compliment Simplicius’s detailed analysis, in “Ukraine: Biden's Sacrificial Lamb Cast into the Volcano," I zoom out and examine the Ukrainian tragedy in the context of the U.S. Empire's malevolent actions and its old, decrepit man at the helm of a sham presidency leading us towards World War III.
https://trygvewighdal.substack.com/p/ukraine-the-bidens-sacrificial-lamb
Have yet to read the article but it seems that it is not really a matter of tactics; the sheer disparity in forces and means is the central problem. Ukraine simply lacks the means to win in offensive combat no matter what tactics are applied.
I wouldn't worry about the age of the F-16 airframes. They won't last long enough for metal fatigue to become a problem. That's not me being snarky it's something I picked up from Senor Millenium7*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgHud7Z5vaE
It's an excellent channel well worth your time. 2 months ago he predicted that the F-16s would be in Ukraine by the autumn. He maybe off on that but it's a political decision and Millenium7* has always been much stronger on the technology than the politics.
Excellent, thanks a bunch from a big long time "lurking" fan.
I'm curious though.
What about those supposed disruptions of collective training they claim hamper russian infantry?
Sounds very much like one of those drive by assertions they hope people won't think about too much, even while it gets stuck in their subconscious.
And the way they are shocked, shocked about the fact the training for russian tank crews continues to function.
What's their actual argument for why we SHOULD find any of that surprising?
Okay, that's a semi rhetorical one.
Didn't sckamela state that Russia is already defeated. And Mitch gave his glue to Biden to sniffles
"It is also important to recognise that Russian forces are fighting more competently and with reasonable tenacity in the defence." I love this quote from RUSI. "Reasonable tenacity?" LOL, the Russians have barely budged from their OUTPOST line and conducted endless counterattacks for each minor hohol advance. The defense has been ferocious. Savage.
The fact that the Russians have fought tooth and nail for each inch of ground tells me two things:
1. The Russians expected to suffer much higher casualties and instead are suffering extremely light casualties. The outpost line is a tripwire and nothing more; if Russia was taking even moderate casualties they'd have abandoned the outpost line long ago and moved into their actual defenses.
2. Russian morale is sky-high. You don't get units fighting like this with low morale. There would have been breakthrough somewhere if Russian units even had moderate morale because endless fighting against even dunderheads like the hohol "Nafo trained" units will take its toll and cause units to crack apart.
Thanks again. You rock!! (not as much as bombing raid on Ukraine though :)
So many thorough reality checks 🏆
Smoke on the Water. LOL! Finally some music I can relate to for a war porn video.
"They said the NATO officers don't understand the reality on the ground." I get the impression this is often a problem in most every war. Officers not understanding the reality on the ground. (and politicians)
The Russians do not mess around. Pretty interesting the changing out of the tank barrels. I have never seen that before. I am still impressed at how quickly they change out the chopper blades.
I remember an episode from the original Star Trek, some planet in a galaxy far, far away would put people in a cylinder tube when their number came up and they would get vaporized, peacefully, painlessly. The ways of old war was just too nasty so the countries had reached a compromise as a way of killing each other. Of course Captain James T. Kirk saved the day, changed their thinking, and brought peace to the two warring fractions. At this point I think that modality would be better for the Ukrainians. This war needs to end, yesterday, but the Swamp keeps sending in the cash, it makes me sick. It is all so twisted on so many levels.
Great analysis.
I had heard that Ukraine was firing most of their M777s at the max charge so they could be farther to the rear. And that this would mean the barrels wearing out even faster. I didn't think they had as many as 150 but probably have at most half of them left.
I had also wondered about the alledged benefit of NATO kit or training.
I guess future tank designers will focus mostly on protection for new designs. Probably cutting mobility as I doubt they would reduce firepower. Heavy armour on all 6 sides, ERA and other protection systems mounted. Some sort of large gun to fire HE to destroy bunkers and buildings on the assault. And maybe a fire control system, FCS, that will also enable the crew to also fire indirectly; to be used as type of artillery. On our Leopard C1s we had gun laying instruments - a traverse indicator and clinometer to adust for elevation. We could only fire HE out to 4000 metres with out FCS, anything farther would be engaged with our gun laying instruments. But the Leopard 2 and M1 doesn't have these. I suppose a tank with an ability to carry Infantry, like Merkava, would get some consideration. Definitely a diesel engine. With an auxiliry generator to run systems while static.
Of course it would also need to have an on-board microwave, toaster oven, and hot gravy dispenser!
Excellent and thorough piece! Clearly, once Russia started adapting to this new kind of hybrid war, the end was pretty certain given Russia's (with some help from its allies) superior production capabilities, better weapons and manpower advantage....Putin's gradualist strategy of attritting Ukraine's forces has also yielded big political benefits...
How we all laughed at Bagdad Bob with his prognostications of imminent victory. And yet, here we have the entire MSM as the new Kiev Ken, making the same absurd claims that defy all logic and common sense, yet this time we believe. I suppose when it finally ends in Ukrainian defeat it too will be sold as a great NATO victory for freedom and democracy, two abstract notions we no longer even comprehend.
Regardless of the outcome of this historic conflict, the hegemony of the west will be forever altered. If we are able to avoid nuclear annihilation, then a new world order will come to be. Hopefully the west will acquiesce and accept a more humble and enlightened future with it's own well being foremost as it's ideology.