PS for all who've read the article, check the update added towards the bottom of the first section on the drone downing, I edited in some intriguing tidbits.
Recommend that you more explicitly flag "updated" information, as this update was easily missed when scanning the piece; perhaps preceding the update (or edit) with a bold single-line paragraph. To wit:
Mar 14, 2023·edited Mar 14, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Thanks for the updates. I'm nursing a theory - until further information is available - that I've seen people discussing at Moon of Alabama. Supposedly there is rumor that an "Global Hawk" drone was downed. Much more expensive and classified than the "Reaper" drones. The conspiracy talk is centered around the US military's Euro Command's announcement and the notion that the "propeller was struck" by one of the Russian airplanes. I cannot wrap my head around such an event. The Russian MOD says that no contact was made and no weapons were used. So why are the Americans so intent on pushing a propeller narrative?
Would you please keep us updated on any further Rybar or other Russian announcements? You noted that they had already retrieved an "Reaper" drone from the ocean, but when I read Rybar's report it only says that pieces of a drone have been recovered. How are they sure it's a "Reaper"?
EDIT: I now see that it says "internal combustion engine casing" - That's pretty disappointing of that was all they are able to recover. I hope there is something more conclusive found soon.
yes internal combustion would signify the propeller-driven Reaper. Whereas Global Hawk is turbo-jet powered. But you're right RQ4 is usually the one doing the rounds in that zone, it's strange to use Reaper as it's not really made for surveillance but rather a UCAV
Right. I guess I'd need to know more about the depth of the Black Sea at the point of recovery, but it also sounded odd to me that a dense, heavy metal part like the casing of an engine would be the one item recovered. I'd have figured that to be the first part to sink to the bottom and other lighter, less dense skin-related items and the like to be easily found floating on the surface. Hopefully more information comes to light because I am very interested to know for sure which type of drone it really was.
Well US spokesman allegedly just announced they'll be releasing 'footage of the incident' "soon", hopefully within days or less. So we might get a definitive look at which platform it was
I can't wait to see this, LOL. I'm super curious to know how they're so sure that the propeller was struck. As someone else over at Moon of Alabama asked: Do they have a rear-facing camera that is capable of observing the propeller? It was also asked what kind of "telemetry" data the US could have received from the drone.
Also I should state, now that I think about it, I doubt a Jet would even be able to take down a Global Hawk. Not only are they gigantic and jet powered, the jet-wash from the plane wouldn't affect it anywhere near what deliberate jet wash can do to a REaper. And secondly the Global Hawk's service ceiling is higher than most jets. They wouldn't even be able to reach it much less goof off around it at 60-65k ft
I had considered this too, the service ceiling. But just because the Hawk has a really high SC, does it necessarily mean that it always flies at that altitude? Is it possible that one could have been flying lower, around the 30k ft range? I genuinely don't know. Somebody at Moon of Alabama said that one of the RQ-9 "Hawk" drones went missing today "off the Circassian coast", but didn't provide any specifics or a source.
"It appears that a US surveillance RQ4 Global Hawk drone, callsign “FORTE10” went missing at 8:40:58 CET (Central European Time). The drone flew within 18 nautical miles of the Russian coastline. It was cruising at an altitude of 52k feet.
There are many reasons to suspect that the drone from todays incident was not a Reaper given their rare usage in that area. Hawks have been spotted much more frequently. This is a much larger embarrassment for USA if this is the case."
Yep. I dunno, maybe we'll find out soon. Could Kerosene take down jet engines if squirted into the jet intake? Presumably could start an explosion since jet fuel is squirted inside at a certain rate, but if a massive amount is dumped into the intake, it would create far more explosive pressure that could destroy the interior
Mig-31s have a service ceiling of 82k ft so could theoretically intercept a Global Hawk. That said I'm not saying they could ram one out the air necessarily
I'm waiting for this supposed video from the USG. Can't wait to see what it shows. There are far more unanswered questions than there are answers at this point in time. FWIW, the Russians were flying Sukhoi Su-27s in this case, not Migs, but I get your point. It's also possible that Global Hawks fly at altitudes far below their service ceiling, especially if they're trying to vacuum up as much RF sigint as possible near a war zone. Then there's the fact they are observed far more often in that area than Reapers. Also, wouldn't it make more sense if the US turned off the transponders on a Global Hawk than a reaper? Finally, I don't doubt that both sides are lying and that the Russians actually did shoot down the drone, whatever kind it really was, with bullets or a missile. If all that happened was the motor/prop died, then I wonder why the wreckage wasn't all found in mostly the same place? Again, tho, lots of questions and few answers at this point.
The engine would have broken clear of the other wreckage i expect , If its like any other propeller airplane ive seen without the cowling on at least. You'd be surprised by how little holds them on.
It'd unlikely to be a piston-engine (or "internal combustion engine"), and more likely a more reliable turbo-prop like a P&W PT-6. The images available online suggest a turbo-prop for the RQ4, and a small fan-jet for the larger Global Hawk. The mid-air collision theory is totally unrealistic since the RQ4 propeller is forged aluminum alloy and would tear a large hole in the Russian plane.
It appears that a US surveillance RQ4 Global Hawk drone, callsign
BREAKING
“FORTE10” went missing at 8:40:58 CET (Central European Time). The drone flew within 18 nautical miles of the Russian coastline. It was cruising at an altitude of 52k feet.
There are many reasons to suspect that the drone from todays incident was not a Reaper given their rare usage in that area. Hawks have been spotted much more frequently. This is a much larger embarrassment for USA if this is the case.
Found this on a few pro RF TM channels, I'm not a military person(i'm learning with Simplicius, tks).
its about time, I've been wondering why they haven't done this sooner. They wanna be cute and wage a proxy war while sitting comfortable oceans away, then such "accidents" should be more frequent. Call it freedom of navigation.
Yes and I think Norway needs to be sent a message. They want to put on their big boy pants and carry the chestnuts for the Americans, they should pay a price. All in good time though. Obviously the destruction of one the Baltic Pipelines would be rather obvious, but it doesn't have to be a pipeline. It can be port infrastructure, refineries, many things.
I have met some Norwegians and I never got the impression they were Russophobic in any way. Where does it come from? No wars between Russia and Norway has been fought. I suspect the source is Stoltenberg. He is the Secretary General of Nafo and a member of the ruling party in Norway and I guess carries a lot influence.
Very nice work today by RAF. RAF stepping up in this new phase of the conflict. Russians moving at their own pace, but shaping battlefield for further, much larger attacks in coming month. Very good tempo to current Russian military activities. We are now entering the no bullshitting phase.
You can literally weld mounting points on an iron pipe and have it stick 10ft ahead of your wing and fly into the props of these drones if you wanted. Im sure the pilots had fun trying things and seeing what worked. The main thing is it cost $32 million and helps bleed nato dry a little more. I hope it landed somewhere the Russians could get it. Would look good in a town square somewhere.
Also, I wonder - just an armchair speculation - if it could be some EW application.
RuMoD is strangely specific about "no contact happenned", so tricks like ramming the propeller are probably out of the toolbox here.
However, imagine the drone was forced into some virage that could only be managed if piloted by a human controller. Collision avoidance, put into jet slipstream, anything. USAF pilot starts a sharpturning he is trained to do, and suddenly Russian jammers kick in, removing human control and maybe also faking GPS and altitude signals. Unguided Reaper in the middle of the vriager fails, but Russia made no any focused impact and can enjoy deniability, it was *just a malfunction*, you know.
Note that the Russian Defense Ministry denies contact with the UAV, which means the downing was probably the result of the Russians "playing music" for the UAV.
No doubt a modern "electronic" arrangement of Tchaikovsky.
Of course, thus the beauty of the plausible deniability. If Russia had fired missile/guns at it, it would be undeniable. Now they get to say whatever they want and pretend the drone fell on its own. Hopefully they continue doing this more to future drones.
PS it's almost as believable as US's 'denial' of Nordstream and that some Ukrainian pleasure boat did the attack
ALL the lives lost and ruined. ALL the money that could have built housing and infrastructure and all the Minsk agreement was, was a Quebec situation. Some autonomy and language and social rights. If you haven't been to Quebec, you should come and see what a beautiful society it is inside Canada and all it took was some reasonable concessions from the rest of the country which were resisted for so many years until we almost lost the country. Peace and concessions are so much better...
All that "dumping the fuel" thing, with subsequent ramming, reminds me of the famous anecdote where Marshal Zhukov ordered for someone to be "beaten, peed on and thrown into a ditch". :)
Poosh-Sah. Environmentally unsound and unprofessional? “Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” the US military complained, accusing the Russians of “a lack of competence.”
I do like the idea of recycling old train and subway cars as bunkers since it is important to be environmentally friendly, what are they doing for climate change in this war? Composting the dead bodies like in WA State? Whatever happened to the dead organ donors in the mine shaft story?
The flight of the drone "was carried out with transponders turned off, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards," the MoD said.
"As a result of sharp maneuvers around 9:30am Moscow time, the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle went into uncontrolled flight, lost altitude, and collided with the water surface. The Russian fighters did not use weapons, did not come into contact with the UAV, and returned safely to their home base,” the defense ministry said in a statement."
"The drone was piloted by the Ghost Of Kiev!" Anon internet humorist
PS for all who've read the article, check the update added towards the bottom of the first section on the drone downing, I edited in some intriguing tidbits.
Recommend that you more explicitly flag "updated" information, as this update was easily missed when scanning the piece; perhaps preceding the update (or edit) with a bold single-line paragraph. To wit:
<strong>*** Update ***</strong>
Thanks for the updates. I'm nursing a theory - until further information is available - that I've seen people discussing at Moon of Alabama. Supposedly there is rumor that an "Global Hawk" drone was downed. Much more expensive and classified than the "Reaper" drones. The conspiracy talk is centered around the US military's Euro Command's announcement and the notion that the "propeller was struck" by one of the Russian airplanes. I cannot wrap my head around such an event. The Russian MOD says that no contact was made and no weapons were used. So why are the Americans so intent on pushing a propeller narrative?
Would you please keep us updated on any further Rybar or other Russian announcements? You noted that they had already retrieved an "Reaper" drone from the ocean, but when I read Rybar's report it only says that pieces of a drone have been recovered. How are they sure it's a "Reaper"?
EDIT: I now see that it says "internal combustion engine casing" - That's pretty disappointing of that was all they are able to recover. I hope there is something more conclusive found soon.
yes internal combustion would signify the propeller-driven Reaper. Whereas Global Hawk is turbo-jet powered. But you're right RQ4 is usually the one doing the rounds in that zone, it's strange to use Reaper as it's not really made for surveillance but rather a UCAV
Right. I guess I'd need to know more about the depth of the Black Sea at the point of recovery, but it also sounded odd to me that a dense, heavy metal part like the casing of an engine would be the one item recovered. I'd have figured that to be the first part to sink to the bottom and other lighter, less dense skin-related items and the like to be easily found floating on the surface. Hopefully more information comes to light because I am very interested to know for sure which type of drone it really was.
Well US spokesman allegedly just announced they'll be releasing 'footage of the incident' "soon", hopefully within days or less. So we might get a definitive look at which platform it was
I can't wait to see this, LOL. I'm super curious to know how they're so sure that the propeller was struck. As someone else over at Moon of Alabama asked: Do they have a rear-facing camera that is capable of observing the propeller? It was also asked what kind of "telemetry" data the US could have received from the drone.
Also I should state, now that I think about it, I doubt a Jet would even be able to take down a Global Hawk. Not only are they gigantic and jet powered, the jet-wash from the plane wouldn't affect it anywhere near what deliberate jet wash can do to a REaper. And secondly the Global Hawk's service ceiling is higher than most jets. They wouldn't even be able to reach it much less goof off around it at 60-65k ft
I had considered this too, the service ceiling. But just because the Hawk has a really high SC, does it necessarily mean that it always flies at that altitude? Is it possible that one could have been flying lower, around the 30k ft range? I genuinely don't know. Somebody at Moon of Alabama said that one of the RQ-9 "Hawk" drones went missing today "off the Circassian coast", but didn't provide any specifics or a source.
Also, I am sure you've seen this already but: https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/48481
"It appears that a US surveillance RQ4 Global Hawk drone, callsign “FORTE10” went missing at 8:40:58 CET (Central European Time). The drone flew within 18 nautical miles of the Russian coastline. It was cruising at an altitude of 52k feet.
There are many reasons to suspect that the drone from todays incident was not a Reaper given their rare usage in that area. Hawks have been spotted much more frequently. This is a much larger embarrassment for USA if this is the case."
I guess to be taken with a big grain of salt.
Yep. I dunno, maybe we'll find out soon. Could Kerosene take down jet engines if squirted into the jet intake? Presumably could start an explosion since jet fuel is squirted inside at a certain rate, but if a massive amount is dumped into the intake, it would create far more explosive pressure that could destroy the interior
Mig-31s have a service ceiling of 82k ft so could theoretically intercept a Global Hawk. That said I'm not saying they could ram one out the air necessarily
I'm waiting for this supposed video from the USG. Can't wait to see what it shows. There are far more unanswered questions than there are answers at this point in time. FWIW, the Russians were flying Sukhoi Su-27s in this case, not Migs, but I get your point. It's also possible that Global Hawks fly at altitudes far below their service ceiling, especially if they're trying to vacuum up as much RF sigint as possible near a war zone. Then there's the fact they are observed far more often in that area than Reapers. Also, wouldn't it make more sense if the US turned off the transponders on a Global Hawk than a reaper? Finally, I don't doubt that both sides are lying and that the Russians actually did shoot down the drone, whatever kind it really was, with bullets or a missile. If all that happened was the motor/prop died, then I wonder why the wreckage wasn't all found in mostly the same place? Again, tho, lots of questions and few answers at this point.
sorry edited this out. went to the wrong comment...
The engine would have broken clear of the other wreckage i expect , If its like any other propeller airplane ive seen without the cowling on at least. You'd be surprised by how little holds them on.
It'd unlikely to be a piston-engine (or "internal combustion engine"), and more likely a more reliable turbo-prop like a P&W PT-6. The images available online suggest a turbo-prop for the RQ4, and a small fan-jet for the larger Global Hawk. The mid-air collision theory is totally unrealistic since the RQ4 propeller is forged aluminum alloy and would tear a large hole in the Russian plane.
It appears that a US surveillance RQ4 Global Hawk drone, callsign
BREAKING
“FORTE10” went missing at 8:40:58 CET (Central European Time). The drone flew within 18 nautical miles of the Russian coastline. It was cruising at an altitude of 52k feet.
There are many reasons to suspect that the drone from todays incident was not a Reaper given their rare usage in that area. Hawks have been spotted much more frequently. This is a much larger embarrassment for USA if this is the case.
Found this on a few pro RF TM channels, I'm not a military person(i'm learning with Simplicius, tks).
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/noPRW1nVEraJh5w2:d
Was that recorded before or after the Su-27 peed on the nosey Reaper?
its about time, I've been wondering why they haven't done this sooner. They wanna be cute and wage a proxy war while sitting comfortable oceans away, then such "accidents" should be more frequent. Call it freedom of navigation.
Yes and I think Norway needs to be sent a message. They want to put on their big boy pants and carry the chestnuts for the Americans, they should pay a price. All in good time though. Obviously the destruction of one the Baltic Pipelines would be rather obvious, but it doesn't have to be a pipeline. It can be port infrastructure, refineries, many things.
I have met some Norwegians and I never got the impression they were Russophobic in any way. Where does it come from? No wars between Russia and Norway has been fought. I suspect the source is Stoltenberg. He is the Secretary General of Nafo and a member of the ruling party in Norway and I guess carries a lot influence.
From western propaganda. There's plenty of Americaphilia, the ruling class is in USAs pocket, and people deeply trust the government.
Very nice work today by RAF. RAF stepping up in this new phase of the conflict. Russians moving at their own pace, but shaping battlefield for further, much larger attacks in coming month. Very good tempo to current Russian military activities. We are now entering the no bullshitting phase.
Also remember how the British pilots in Spitfires & Hurricanes would fly next to, and then tip the V-1 flying bombs?
Must have been a hell of a lot of fun!
Love your analysis, but FYI "Grom" (or hrom) in Russian means thunder, not lightning ;)
woops thanks for correction
You can literally weld mounting points on an iron pipe and have it stick 10ft ahead of your wing and fly into the props of these drones if you wanted. Im sure the pilots had fun trying things and seeing what worked. The main thing is it cost $32 million and helps bleed nato dry a little more. I hope it landed somewhere the Russians could get it. Would look good in a town square somewhere.
I think you missed one association.
Few weeks ago USA with a lot of fanfares and in international space destroyed a *maybe* spy baloon.
Now Russia, with thinlyh veiled plausible deniability destroys in international space a *surely* spy drone.
Chinese should be mightily gloating now.
Would we soon hear Kosovo-like nonsense like "it did not create a presedent, because we said it did not" ?
P.S. and sorry, can not help my own little gloating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWFqa5LdKa8
Also, I wonder - just an armchair speculation - if it could be some EW application.
RuMoD is strangely specific about "no contact happenned", so tricks like ramming the propeller are probably out of the toolbox here.
However, imagine the drone was forced into some virage that could only be managed if piloted by a human controller. Collision avoidance, put into jet slipstream, anything. USAF pilot starts a sharpturning he is trained to do, and suddenly Russian jammers kick in, removing human control and maybe also faking GPS and altitude signals. Unguided Reaper in the middle of the vriager fails, but Russia made no any focused impact and can enjoy deniability, it was *just a malfunction*, you know.
Just speculating for a fun of it.
This theory has merits, like Russians saying "See what we can do with your toys, stop coming into our backyard".
Note that the Russian Defense Ministry denies contact with the UAV, which means the downing was probably the result of the Russians "playing music" for the UAV.
No doubt a modern "electronic" arrangement of Tchaikovsky.
Of course, thus the beauty of the plausible deniability. If Russia had fired missile/guns at it, it would be undeniable. Now they get to say whatever they want and pretend the drone fell on its own. Hopefully they continue doing this more to future drones.
PS it's almost as believable as US's 'denial' of Nordstream and that some Ukrainian pleasure boat did the attack
Concur...
AND, would it not be embarrassing for US et al to admit that Russian "music" is superior to the US UAV ear?
ALL the lives lost and ruined. ALL the money that could have built housing and infrastructure and all the Minsk agreement was, was a Quebec situation. Some autonomy and language and social rights. If you haven't been to Quebec, you should come and see what a beautiful society it is inside Canada and all it took was some reasonable concessions from the rest of the country which were resisted for so many years until we almost lost the country. Peace and concessions are so much better...
Quebec, as soon as i am PM will be forced to speak English, and if they dont like it, i will randomly shell schools and towns for 8 years.
I mean if its good enough to do in one part of the world it has to be good enough to do at home right?
"rules based order" only applies to the rest of the world XD
All that "dumping the fuel" thing, with subsequent ramming, reminds me of the famous anecdote where Marshal Zhukov ordered for someone to be "beaten, peed on and thrown into a ditch". :)
The USA is the evil empire now.
Go Russia! Go!
Sadly the USA has been an evil empire for a very long time, and they tend to use the same playbook over and over. It makes me sick.
All is fair in love and war. Samantha admitting we are at war w/Russia.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-samantha-power-lets-slip-us-war-russia-ukrainians-doing-fighting
Poosh-Sah. Environmentally unsound and unprofessional? “Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” the US military complained, accusing the Russians of “a lack of competence.”
I do like the idea of recycling old train and subway cars as bunkers since it is important to be environmentally friendly, what are they doing for climate change in this war? Composting the dead bodies like in WA State? Whatever happened to the dead organ donors in the mine shaft story?
Oh right, that. I also wonder....hmmm, well there are certainly more than enough distractions to go around...
Good riddance to those 40 traitors.
Just a thought, but could the usa be lying about the downed drone as a reason to invade Crimea? They love their false flags
Various claims seen online:
The flight of the drone "was carried out with transponders turned off, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards," the MoD said.
"As a result of sharp maneuvers around 9:30am Moscow time, the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle went into uncontrolled flight, lost altitude, and collided with the water surface. The Russian fighters did not use weapons, did not come into contact with the UAV, and returned safely to their home base,” the defense ministry said in a statement."
"The drone was piloted by the Ghost Of Kiev!" Anon internet humorist
Ongelooflijk 💪👍♥️🇷🇺❗