Two interesting thinktank policy papers were released over the past two weeks, which somewhat flew under the radar. I wanted to examine them in light of not only Ukraine’s now-announced major battlefield reorientation, but the general pivotal inflection point on which the conflict stands at the cusp of 2024, to see what projections for the future can be gleaned.
I must say, inspired by Simpiclius tireless work I worked tirelessly on my "As America Crumbles...: A Grim Chronicle Exploring the Evil Source of America’s Catastrophic Decline " book, diving deep into the labyrinth of corruption and legalized theft by the US government. 325 bibliographical entries :)
Evidence that facts can be evoked but not presented in order to write an article, which covers capital outflows (anecdotal, no figures) the weakened rouble, tight labour market (reasons : mobilisition, flight, MIC expansion, but no figures) remaining problems in export and import logistics (no details) which seems the most convincing
‘“External trade and financial constraints . . . complicate logistical chains and financial settlements and weaken demand for Russian exports,” it said.
That has fuelled inflation via the exchange rate: fewer exports mean Russia receives less foreign currency to pay for imports used in food production and other industries.
With a misinterpretation of Russia ceasing approvals for sales of western company subsidiaries – attributed to a desire to restrict capital outflows, it is more likely that this decision is to enact a polite equivalent of freezing western assets, given western chatter about confiscation of Russian State assets, together with active measures to take control over western company participation in vital activity, as per Artic gas extraction projects
Russia controls on western assets were made inevitable by sanctions, by which western governments obliged western companies to withdraw from Russia, by the freezing of CBR foreign currency reserves by the REPO TF in June 2022, and by significant confiscations enacted by Germany over Rosneft and Gazprom assets, let alone the ongoing threats to confiscate the frozen Russia state assets
The value of western assets in Russia effectively confiscated, frozen or taken under control is sometimes given as $100B plus, and it is often said that ‘most’ western companies have retained their operations in Russia, but with no figures or valuations given
No detailed & overall studies have been made- the following US ‘Deep State’ company published a survey-
His writing is distinguished by the habit of making statements backed up by links only to him self, philosphers call this a circle jerk
The FT spends a lot of paper on the case of the eggs, made notorious by Putin’s man of the people like pun at his recent TV show
But – no mention of worker wage increases, variously given (from other sources) as between 7% and 15% in 2023 - which cancels out even the maximal figures for inflation here given
To complement the ISW Report, this from the FT, much lazier and less well focused than the ISW, but just as convincing evidence of how the west is lost
23 December 2023 FT Another Russia has lost Russia has won lament
Another very lazy we’ve won article – all we have to do is not much and…it’s easy, Russia is decrepit on it’s last legs, ‘a small low tech economy’ : But yet is a deadly threat to Europe and to all mankind – et puis voilà! pulling his rabbit from his hat
But but ‘we’ve given up already – the ‘we’ in the article is all over the place, this time the ‘we’ perhaps referring to the US + western members only of the EU, + UK, while lauding the plucky courageous and realistic eastern members into a pre emptive attack on Russia
‘The Europeans [note not NATO rump] could help Ukraine withstand Putin even if Trump pulled out [of NATO, which the author presumes dissolved, not to say so many words, and to forget Congress has just passed a motion to prevent this]. We’d have to build up our arms industries fast, but the effort required of us would be tiny compared with Russia’s. ‘
A strange argument since he writes that Russia has already re built it’s MIC, it maybe he says that Russia is winning this war, and will any future, although he’s not very clear, alternating between very upbeat and very depressed about the ‘we’ …..
….‘If he [President Putin] attacked the Baltics, Nato would probably send troops. But for how long? Once a few hundred western soldiers came back dead, far-right parties would demand “peace”, meaning unenforceable peace treaties with Putin. Western countries could retreat’
Sometimes the ‘we’ is plainly just ‘me’ the football coach shouting from the sidelines
AI’s raison d’être – it can not be supposed that the FT can bother to find real people to re write the same three articles forever – especially these lazy give me twenty minutes ones
The European and UK journo class are split in two- manic depressive vaguely white collar broadsheet writers, and manic vaguely white collar tabloid writers
PS The FT readership lapped this up – starred as the most read article of the day -
The West has also lost the war over the seizure of Russia Central Bank assets
23 December 2023 Breaking News -FT’s unconditional surrender, FT withdraws from NATO G7 sanctions alliance
‘Russia has won’ : The FT Editorial Board has come out against confiscation of CBR assets, after a valiant fight, including the fundaments of diversity and inclusion, despite giving deprived journos and think tankers a vibrant platform for democracy
‘The pitfalls of seizing Russian assets to fund Ukraine’
‘Of course’ no mention of Western corporate assets in Russia – by some measures worth $100/150B
But an inkling that this US pressure to confiscate is another NS2
"Russia must of course pay towards the vast costs of rebuilding Ukraine. The G7 has pledged to keep Moscow’s assets frozen until Russia compensates Kyiv for the damage — which could be potent leverage in a future settlement. But it is no coincidence that the idea of Russian asset seizures has gained momentum just as US and EU support for Kyiv’s war effort is hitting political roadblocks. It risks becoming a mechanism for western democracies to shirk their own responsibilities. Having stayed out of direct military engagement, they have a profound duty to keep funding Ukraine’s defence of European security and values.
Proponents of using Russian assets argue that “western taxpayers won’t pay”. But the world’s wealthiest economies, and their financial institutions, ought together to be up to this task — and to making the case to their electorates for why this must happen. With careful preparation, and by building the broadest possible coalition in support, there may be ways to lessen the risks of confiscating Moscow’s reserves. As 2023 moves into 2024, however, it is on unblocking and locking in their own financial support for Kyiv that western leaders should focus their efforts.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All rights reserved.
I like this idea of an Altered America. I also think it will be immeasurably better for Americans as a whole, and the world. A little bit of humility, a little bit of vulnerability - good for people, good for countries. They will never be weak, America will always be a superpower. Just enough of this hegemonic bs
There is absolutely zero evidence that Russia has even the slightest desire to attack or invade or even defeat NATO proper. It has acted and will continue to act purely defensively. And no one really wants to spend 4 or 5% of GDP indefinitely on armies and weapons. Nor does anyone want to suck valuable manpower into the parasitic military--in fact the West can't, even if it wanted to. So we wind up back to where we started in December of 2021. When the war is over Russia makes an offer they can't refuse--a new comprehensive security arrangement for Europe. Negotiate and cap everything, provide de-militarized security zones for all borders and provide for mutual inspections. Trust but verify, in the immortal words of Ronnie boy. As for the US husbanding its forces to take on China-- completely insane, absolutely impossible. And everyone with any military sense knows it. In spite of all the elaborate calculations in these two reports, the West simply cannot compete with Russia and China militarily. This whole tragic escapade winds up being an undertaking by the Russians to get back to that magic moment in 2021 when they offered a comprehensive security deal. Unlike the West, neither Russia or China are interested in expansion or destabilizing anybody. Their resources and industrious populations are sufficient thank you very much. And in the case of China, they have a stable system under the Communist Party that works wonders. A comprehensive security deal is the real endgame, the real goal of the Russians. And this time it will be impossible to ignore them. Sounds impossibly sane doesn't it? Well circumstances, not sanity, may yet bring it about--and that old tried and true Soviet concept, the correlation of forces.
Superb analysis, and the commentary at the end was especially insightful.
Separate to all this, I read an interesting article on a philosophy website last week talking about how the Age of Enlightenment (use rationality to understand reality) has since transmogrified into what is, essentially, a wide-scale adoption of the tenets of "The Secret" (the book), i.e. "You can manifest any reality you want with your intentions" aka "human beings can become gods."
Don't want to get too deep into the weeds on that, but it reminded me of Karl Rove's 2004 statements, particularly the one to Ron Suskind about how his (i.e. the republican Bush) administration was now "manufacturing reality" on a continuous basis.
Well, as the OP showed, I think we're finally getting to the point where the "rubber" of that mentality is meeting the "road," i.e. a final showdown between what one might accurately call the battle between the "we manufacture our own reality" crowd in the West (including most definitely Israel) and the "you can print shells but not money" pro-Russian sphere. And 2024 looks like that's when all the cards are gonna be shown and we'll see which side is right.
In other words, this is even bigger than NATO or America's idea of itself or even the "West" because it is a fundamental shift in philosophical outlook for the entire human race. Is reality a separate, tangible thing that you can interact with and learn from but not alter? Or are human beings (demi)gods who can manufacture/shape reality purely with the power of their intention(s)?
Sounds kinda bananas, but I think that's where we're at.
Response to Simplicius' "Breaking Down Thinktank-land's Latest: Estonian MoD & ISW Analysis"
"They’re saying Russia can fully train and equip a massive 130k troops every 6 months into coherent units."
That's 260K troops per year. What happened to the other 200K troops Russia raised this year so far? LOL Did the Estonians drop a digit while typing this? How many divisions is that?
And that's only the Russian ground forces. Russia is on track to have 2.3-2.5 million men in all branches of their armed forces within the next year.
"Russian brigades too have many deficiencies, otherwise the war would have been over by now"
Uhm, no. The three reasons why Russia has not overrun them is as I've said from the beginning:
1) A way too long line of contact.
2) Fortifications built up over eight years which can't be overrun without taking UNNECESSARY casualties.
3) Why take UNNECESSARY casualties when the enemy is willing to take RIDICULOUS casualties?
And there's a 4th reason: managing the NATO reaction to a sudden defeat of Ukraine. Bleed NATO first, then defeat Ukraine seems to be have been an implicit Russian objective.
"not quite superior enough where they have the coordination and technology necessary to fully exploit those losses by way of maneuvers into the rear, through the breakthrough gap."
Bullshit. You'll trot out any nonsense just to keep supporting your "the war will drag on until 2025" nonsense. There is absolutely ZERO evidence for your assertion other than the simple fact that Russia hasn't bothered to try such an approach, which as I and everyone else has repeatedly said, is simply because Russia doesn't need to to win this war.
"Further, they claim Russian AD networks had large gaps for southern Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, etc., because Russia could not place AD systems in Ukraine:"
And why the fuck do these ISW morons think the SMO was conducted? Just to kick out Zelensky? Hardly. It was precisely to be able to place an entire new army on Poland's and Romania's borders,. to match the Military Districts being formed opposite Finland, and the integration of Belarus military into the Russian military.
Putting three field armies - or at least solid Military Districts - on NATO's borders is EXACTLY what Russia intends to do. As I am on record saying since April, 2022, this is the real goal of the SMO, the "military-technical measures" Russia promised it would take if the December, 2021, treaty proposals about the expansion of NATO were rejected, aimed at the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania that Ray McGovern pointedly discussed because Putin himself mentioned them repeatedly in speeches.
Once again for the retarded: Russia has been invaded four times in the last couple hundred years from the West. It's not going to allow that anymore. It's going to build an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic. If the West wants to fight, they will have to go nuclear - and with Russia's AD and hypersonic missiles carried on its aircraft, subs and naval fleet, they're ready for that, too, whereas the US and NATO most definitely are not.
I'm just surprised the ISW is willing to confirm my predictions, if only for their own propaganda reasons.
Kagan psychopaths + senile russophobe Biden will not hesitate to use nukes even more seing their defeat coming in next potus election. Biden is at his lowest ever for a dem potus 10 months ahead of decisive election (38 %) as Israhell gaza is playing against him..they will JFKize Trump also if necessary. Now the all EU + UK + CA are in recession, housing value in Germany is collapsing, industries closing on an almost daily basis, people are switching to the right or extreme right waiting for revenge for standards of living lost, jobs lost, inflation, energy prices etc...regime changes started with Slovakia, other will follow in 2024.
Macron just said today 'no Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia in EU, before they match all criteria(impossible) and no money as the agri lobby is still very powerfull in countries like France, Spain, Italy and even Germany they can block the country for weeks and collapse the eco and the govt and can become quiet violent as they have nothing to lose now.
What the neocons MEAN by that is not RUSSIAN information power, but Western audiences own thoughts, actions, and expressions. Russia itself has very little direct narrative input, I hardly need to point out that "Russiagate" was a disinfo mindfuck from beinning to end. Less than 100 anti-Killary memes over 2 years... And nor can we even watch Russian media without the use of VPNs.
So the hammer being designed and prepred here is NOT for "Russian Information Spheres", - it for WESTERN publics who are doubting their lies, and that just happens to coincide with Russian narratives/the truth too.
What can they do, blow up undersea internet cables carrying "Russian disinfo"? No. But they CAN prosecute "pro-Russian" Westerners who disagree with the neocon/media version of 'reality'.
That is what the article was prepping for. A further "patriotic" clampdown on 'free speech', possibly making McCarthy seem like a fond memory.
Can ANYONE tell me why its a terrible danger if Russia moves to have borders next to NATO, and yet it's perfectly fine for NATO to move to have borders next to Russia? :ponders:
Had Ukraine joined, their "Greatest Fear" would have been realised anyway!
Or perhaps it's the 'strategic depth' they are concerned over? Lmao.
I must say, inspired by Simpiclius tireless work I worked tirelessly on my "As America Crumbles...: A Grim Chronicle Exploring the Evil Source of America’s Catastrophic Decline " book, diving deep into the labyrinth of corruption and legalized theft by the US government. 325 bibliographical entries :)
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CQR71WN3
23 December 2023 FT Russia inflation
‘Russia battles to curb inflation ahead of Putin re election’
https://www.ft.com/content/b3206a9f-e667-4e53-8a16-a8096188d4ae
Evidence that facts can be evoked but not presented in order to write an article, which covers capital outflows (anecdotal, no figures) the weakened rouble, tight labour market (reasons : mobilisition, flight, MIC expansion, but no figures) remaining problems in export and import logistics (no details) which seems the most convincing
‘“External trade and financial constraints . . . complicate logistical chains and financial settlements and weaken demand for Russian exports,” it said.
That has fuelled inflation via the exchange rate: fewer exports mean Russia receives less foreign currency to pay for imports used in food production and other industries.
With a misinterpretation of Russia ceasing approvals for sales of western company subsidiaries – attributed to a desire to restrict capital outflows, it is more likely that this decision is to enact a polite equivalent of freezing western assets, given western chatter about confiscation of Russian State assets, together with active measures to take control over western company participation in vital activity, as per Artic gas extraction projects
Russia controls on western assets were made inevitable by sanctions, by which western governments obliged western companies to withdraw from Russia, by the freezing of CBR foreign currency reserves by the REPO TF in June 2022, and by significant confiscations enacted by Germany over Rosneft and Gazprom assets, let alone the ongoing threats to confiscate the frozen Russia state assets
The value of western assets in Russia effectively confiscated, frozen or taken under control is sometimes given as $100B plus, and it is often said that ‘most’ western companies have retained their operations in Russia, but with no figures or valuations given
No detailed & overall studies have been made- the following US ‘Deep State’ company published a survey-
https://go.recordedfuture.com/hubfs/reports/ta-2023-1019.pdf
In it’s favour- the FT article is not as magic world as this by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, which manages to be even deeper stater than the NYT
https://fortune.com/2023/12/20/parroting-putin-propaganda-business-exodus-ukraine-russia-bonanza-sanctions-economy-international-politics/
His writing is distinguished by the habit of making statements backed up by links only to him self, philosphers call this a circle jerk
The FT spends a lot of paper on the case of the eggs, made notorious by Putin’s man of the people like pun at his recent TV show
But – no mention of worker wage increases, variously given (from other sources) as between 7% and 15% in 2023 - which cancels out even the maximal figures for inflation here given
The country has been hyjacked by a Nazi and Zio-Nazi cabal.
To complement the ISW Report, this from the FT, much lazier and less well focused than the ISW, but just as convincing evidence of how the west is lost
23 December 2023 FT Another Russia has lost Russia has won lament
‘What if Russia wins’
https://www.ft.com/content/a788b749-c94c-4d9e-99e4-47300b0c6ea8
Another very lazy we’ve won article – all we have to do is not much and…it’s easy, Russia is decrepit on it’s last legs, ‘a small low tech economy’ : But yet is a deadly threat to Europe and to all mankind – et puis voilà! pulling his rabbit from his hat
But but ‘we’ve given up already – the ‘we’ in the article is all over the place, this time the ‘we’ perhaps referring to the US + western members only of the EU, + UK, while lauding the plucky courageous and realistic eastern members into a pre emptive attack on Russia
‘The Europeans [note not NATO rump] could help Ukraine withstand Putin even if Trump pulled out [of NATO, which the author presumes dissolved, not to say so many words, and to forget Congress has just passed a motion to prevent this]. We’d have to build up our arms industries fast, but the effort required of us would be tiny compared with Russia’s. ‘
A strange argument since he writes that Russia has already re built it’s MIC, it maybe he says that Russia is winning this war, and will any future, although he’s not very clear, alternating between very upbeat and very depressed about the ‘we’ …..
….‘If he [President Putin] attacked the Baltics, Nato would probably send troops. But for how long? Once a few hundred western soldiers came back dead, far-right parties would demand “peace”, meaning unenforceable peace treaties with Putin. Western countries could retreat’
Sometimes the ‘we’ is plainly just ‘me’ the football coach shouting from the sidelines
AI’s raison d’être – it can not be supposed that the FT can bother to find real people to re write the same three articles forever – especially these lazy give me twenty minutes ones
The European and UK journo class are split in two- manic depressive vaguely white collar broadsheet writers, and manic vaguely white collar tabloid writers
PS The FT readership lapped this up – starred as the most read article of the day -
The West has also lost the war over the seizure of Russia Central Bank assets
23 December 2023 Breaking News -FT’s unconditional surrender, FT withdraws from NATO G7 sanctions alliance
‘Russia has won’ : The FT Editorial Board has come out against confiscation of CBR assets, after a valiant fight, including the fundaments of diversity and inclusion, despite giving deprived journos and think tankers a vibrant platform for democracy
‘The pitfalls of seizing Russian assets to fund Ukraine’
https://www.ft.com/content/b46a3308-b048-44fd-b619-0b92c404c379
‘Of course’ no mention of Western corporate assets in Russia – by some measures worth $100/150B
But an inkling that this US pressure to confiscate is another NS2
"Russia must of course pay towards the vast costs of rebuilding Ukraine. The G7 has pledged to keep Moscow’s assets frozen until Russia compensates Kyiv for the damage — which could be potent leverage in a future settlement. But it is no coincidence that the idea of Russian asset seizures has gained momentum just as US and EU support for Kyiv’s war effort is hitting political roadblocks. It risks becoming a mechanism for western democracies to shirk their own responsibilities. Having stayed out of direct military engagement, they have a profound duty to keep funding Ukraine’s defence of European security and values.
Proponents of using Russian assets argue that “western taxpayers won’t pay”. But the world’s wealthiest economies, and their financial institutions, ought together to be up to this task — and to making the case to their electorates for why this must happen. With careful preparation, and by building the broadest possible coalition in support, there may be ways to lessen the risks of confiscating Moscow’s reserves. As 2023 moves into 2024, however, it is on unblocking and locking in their own financial support for Kyiv that western leaders should focus their efforts.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All rights reserved.
I like this idea of an Altered America. I also think it will be immeasurably better for Americans as a whole, and the world. A little bit of humility, a little bit of vulnerability - good for people, good for countries. They will never be weak, America will always be a superpower. Just enough of this hegemonic bs
Good work, as usual .
Go Russia, proud to be Russian, hoping Russia can restore some sanity to scAmerica...
There is absolutely zero evidence that Russia has even the slightest desire to attack or invade or even defeat NATO proper. It has acted and will continue to act purely defensively. And no one really wants to spend 4 or 5% of GDP indefinitely on armies and weapons. Nor does anyone want to suck valuable manpower into the parasitic military--in fact the West can't, even if it wanted to. So we wind up back to where we started in December of 2021. When the war is over Russia makes an offer they can't refuse--a new comprehensive security arrangement for Europe. Negotiate and cap everything, provide de-militarized security zones for all borders and provide for mutual inspections. Trust but verify, in the immortal words of Ronnie boy. As for the US husbanding its forces to take on China-- completely insane, absolutely impossible. And everyone with any military sense knows it. In spite of all the elaborate calculations in these two reports, the West simply cannot compete with Russia and China militarily. This whole tragic escapade winds up being an undertaking by the Russians to get back to that magic moment in 2021 when they offered a comprehensive security deal. Unlike the West, neither Russia or China are interested in expansion or destabilizing anybody. Their resources and industrious populations are sufficient thank you very much. And in the case of China, they have a stable system under the Communist Party that works wonders. A comprehensive security deal is the real endgame, the real goal of the Russians. And this time it will be impossible to ignore them. Sounds impossibly sane doesn't it? Well circumstances, not sanity, may yet bring it about--and that old tried and true Soviet concept, the correlation of forces.
Superb analysis, and the commentary at the end was especially insightful.
Separate to all this, I read an interesting article on a philosophy website last week talking about how the Age of Enlightenment (use rationality to understand reality) has since transmogrified into what is, essentially, a wide-scale adoption of the tenets of "The Secret" (the book), i.e. "You can manifest any reality you want with your intentions" aka "human beings can become gods."
Don't want to get too deep into the weeds on that, but it reminded me of Karl Rove's 2004 statements, particularly the one to Ron Suskind about how his (i.e. the republican Bush) administration was now "manufacturing reality" on a continuous basis.
Well, as the OP showed, I think we're finally getting to the point where the "rubber" of that mentality is meeting the "road," i.e. a final showdown between what one might accurately call the battle between the "we manufacture our own reality" crowd in the West (including most definitely Israel) and the "you can print shells but not money" pro-Russian sphere. And 2024 looks like that's when all the cards are gonna be shown and we'll see which side is right.
In other words, this is even bigger than NATO or America's idea of itself or even the "West" because it is a fundamental shift in philosophical outlook for the entire human race. Is reality a separate, tangible thing that you can interact with and learn from but not alter? Or are human beings (demi)gods who can manufacture/shape reality purely with the power of their intention(s)?
Sounds kinda bananas, but I think that's where we're at.
Just wanted to say how much I appreciate your work on this I've learned a lot reading these. Cheers.
Response to Simplicius' "Breaking Down Thinktank-land's Latest: Estonian MoD & ISW Analysis"
"They’re saying Russia can fully train and equip a massive 130k troops every 6 months into coherent units."
That's 260K troops per year. What happened to the other 200K troops Russia raised this year so far? LOL Did the Estonians drop a digit while typing this? How many divisions is that?
And that's only the Russian ground forces. Russia is on track to have 2.3-2.5 million men in all branches of their armed forces within the next year.
"Russian brigades too have many deficiencies, otherwise the war would have been over by now"
Uhm, no. The three reasons why Russia has not overrun them is as I've said from the beginning:
1) A way too long line of contact.
2) Fortifications built up over eight years which can't be overrun without taking UNNECESSARY casualties.
3) Why take UNNECESSARY casualties when the enemy is willing to take RIDICULOUS casualties?
And there's a 4th reason: managing the NATO reaction to a sudden defeat of Ukraine. Bleed NATO first, then defeat Ukraine seems to be have been an implicit Russian objective.
"not quite superior enough where they have the coordination and technology necessary to fully exploit those losses by way of maneuvers into the rear, through the breakthrough gap."
Bullshit. You'll trot out any nonsense just to keep supporting your "the war will drag on until 2025" nonsense. There is absolutely ZERO evidence for your assertion other than the simple fact that Russia hasn't bothered to try such an approach, which as I and everyone else has repeatedly said, is simply because Russia doesn't need to to win this war.
"Further, they claim Russian AD networks had large gaps for southern Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, etc., because Russia could not place AD systems in Ukraine:"
And why the fuck do these ISW morons think the SMO was conducted? Just to kick out Zelensky? Hardly. It was precisely to be able to place an entire new army on Poland's and Romania's borders,. to match the Military Districts being formed opposite Finland, and the integration of Belarus military into the Russian military.
Putting three field armies - or at least solid Military Districts - on NATO's borders is EXACTLY what Russia intends to do. As I am on record saying since April, 2022, this is the real goal of the SMO, the "military-technical measures" Russia promised it would take if the December, 2021, treaty proposals about the expansion of NATO were rejected, aimed at the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania that Ray McGovern pointedly discussed because Putin himself mentioned them repeatedly in speeches.
Once again for the retarded: Russia has been invaded four times in the last couple hundred years from the West. It's not going to allow that anymore. It's going to build an "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic. If the West wants to fight, they will have to go nuclear - and with Russia's AD and hypersonic missiles carried on its aircraft, subs and naval fleet, they're ready for that, too, whereas the US and NATO most definitely are not.
I'm just surprised the ISW is willing to confirm my predictions, if only for their own propaganda reasons.
Kagan psychopaths + senile russophobe Biden will not hesitate to use nukes even more seing their defeat coming in next potus election. Biden is at his lowest ever for a dem potus 10 months ahead of decisive election (38 %) as Israhell gaza is playing against him..they will JFKize Trump also if necessary. Now the all EU + UK + CA are in recession, housing value in Germany is collapsing, industries closing on an almost daily basis, people are switching to the right or extreme right waiting for revenge for standards of living lost, jobs lost, inflation, energy prices etc...regime changes started with Slovakia, other will follow in 2024.
Macron just said today 'no Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia in EU, before they match all criteria(impossible) and no money as the agri lobby is still very powerfull in countries like France, Spain, Italy and even Germany they can block the country for weeks and collapse the eco and the govt and can become quiet violent as they have nothing to lose now.
I wouldn't be so gloaty.
What the neocons MEAN by that is not RUSSIAN information power, but Western audiences own thoughts, actions, and expressions. Russia itself has very little direct narrative input, I hardly need to point out that "Russiagate" was a disinfo mindfuck from beinning to end. Less than 100 anti-Killary memes over 2 years... And nor can we even watch Russian media without the use of VPNs.
So the hammer being designed and prepred here is NOT for "Russian Information Spheres", - it for WESTERN publics who are doubting their lies, and that just happens to coincide with Russian narratives/the truth too.
What can they do, blow up undersea internet cables carrying "Russian disinfo"? No. But they CAN prosecute "pro-Russian" Westerners who disagree with the neocon/media version of 'reality'.
That is what the article was prepping for. A further "patriotic" clampdown on 'free speech', possibly making McCarthy seem like a fond memory.
Can ANYONE tell me why its a terrible danger if Russia moves to have borders next to NATO, and yet it's perfectly fine for NATO to move to have borders next to Russia? :ponders:
Had Ukraine joined, their "Greatest Fear" would have been realised anyway!
Or perhaps it's the 'strategic depth' they are concerned over? Lmao.