Beyond ridiculous. It's been NATO with its invasion of the post-Soviet space and then Ukraine with its invasion, post-Maidan, of its Russian regions and its creeping ethnocide of all things non-"Ukrainian" (according to their definition of what "Ukrainian" is) who started this war. Figuratively, if you step outside to pull out a gun and aim it at the head of your neighbour while he is peacefully mowing his lawn just across the fence, and he then steps over the fence to take the gun away from you, then he hasn't "invaded" your space. Zelensky was demanding nuclear weapons when he attended the Munich security conference in autum 2021, and no western leader objected. Russia had no choice.
I assume from your comments that you condemn US actions in Iraq, Afghanistan and the illegal deployment of troops in Syria. Not to mention all the other questionable aggressive military action of the past thirty years. One does not need to be a Putin fan to recognize the total hypocrisy of western reaction to Russian actions in Ukraine.
Whether or not Putin did the right thing to launch the SMO from a Russian perspective is a question that historians will no doubt ask for years. My sense is that he did it reluctantly and felt he had no other choice. The west’s bellicose reaction has probably served only to reinforce his belief.
We do need new leaders in the west. My fear is that their next step will be to engineer war with China before they are done though.
This, along with all the other small wounds the Ukuleles (aka NATO) have inflicted, wouldn’t have happened if Russia took the gloves off last year when they should’ve and flattened Ukraine with massive carpet bombing and missle strikes.
Honestly this whole thing has been badly managed, I don't even blame the military, its the political decisions that are still the biggest weak point. Russian people seem to be begging to go to a total war footing since that is what NATO is doing, but Putin seems to still be reluctant to shake the boat and actually commit fully. Total War is upon them, pretending its not wont change things.
If you were Putin, would you have gone gloves-off realizing that Kiev was where the Rus origianted. It's like western ppl carpet bombing all of Rome to rubbles. Would you want to see the cradle of western civilization meeting this faith. I truly understood why Putin didn't want glove-off. But if he is replaced by the Neocons (ex-communists), that's a different story.
Sorry Puss in Boots. I am more comfortable with Russia taking things very seriously, deeply considering the implications of any action in so doing, at least considering the impact on the RoW. I do not have a problem with Russia's slow approach, at least civilians are being saved and soldiers. Just because they are not doing USA Shock and Awe bombings killing millions of civilians is to their credit. There is no incompetence, it's just a different type of war fare to that the USA is used to.
The collective West is itching for Russia to escalate, just sitting their itching so that NATO can become an 'official' party to the War. Russia are right not to bite Might and Right is on their sde. No need to abuse that. People should have more Faith and less armchair general shenanigans. Russia will escalate when it is right for them to do so. In the meantime we, the world, needs them to stand up to NATO and the collective West for the sake of humanity, freedom, liberty and democracy. So, they take it slowly. Good thing I say. Better that than these idiotic, knee jerk and hysterical reactions from the collective West. Rationality, Reason and Right will prevail. No need to kill millions of civilians to do that. God Bless Putin and Russia. They are right and will prevail.
Et Lux in tenebris lucet et tenebrae eam non conprehenderunt. Yes, we live in dark times, the battle is not just for Russia, it wants to subjugate all of us. God Bless Putin, Russia. They are in the light and will prevail.
Yes. And another part is also the international implications for the world. Not the West but the rest. Carpet bombing might be easy, diplomacy is not. And I mean diplomacy of Russia vis à vis the world.
It's a complicated calculus, though. Very early on in the SMO, Newsweek (aka the CIA's domestic newsletter) published an article detailing how Russia could easily flatten Ukraine, "Shawk 'n Aaah" style along the lines you mention, but refused to do it. I am not up to speed on Putin's speeches in the past 8 months, but it would surprise me if he hadn't laid out his reasons for conducting the operation in the manner that it has been proceeding. My personal belief is that he was and is being exceptionally careful to avoid civilian casualties and may (naively?) be attempting to avoid the 'optics' of such an operation as it would be presented in "the west" and even in the Global South. IOW, waging a war that differs drastically from the type that the US/UK/France have waged in the ME and Africa for decades; see: Syria and Iraq and Libya (or to be frank, Korea an Vietnam/Laos/Cambodia). I also think Putin and the Russian leadership (and populace) views much of Ukraine as kin or brothers who merely need to be guided in the right direction with a gentle touch rather than a knockout blow.
At this point, however, as you say, the glove should probably come off. Nothing Putin or Russia do was ever going to be characterized as anything other than brutal, illegal, anti-humanitarian barbarism. On the economic side, I think the Russians' top brass has realized this and are committed to a second system for international trade and banking. What remains to be seen is whether the Russian military will decide to end this war quickly and decisively or whether they will continue to gamble with this slow meatgrinder war of attrition that by the very nature of such operations will continue to result in Russian casualties and attacks on Russian assets.
Once it became clear very early on that there was going to be no negotiatiated settlement to this mess, Russia should’ve taken the gloves off and flattened Ukraine. I would place that moment to when they were on the verge of a settlement and Boris Johnson blew it up. At that point, Russia should’ve first launched a massive decapitation strike on Kiev and wherever else they knew the military and political leadership was located, then brutally carpet bomb all the Ukulele fortifications in the east and worked their way west, destroying anything and everything im their way to the western border.
I'm with you on the timing. But keep in mind that at the time BoJo carried out his little sabotage mission on the ceasefire agreement, Russia had yet to call up the hundreds of thousands of reserves. I am not privy to the internal political climate there (Russia), as it's difficult to get a handle on with all the SEO narrative/information control here in the US and of course the blatant censorship, but I do think it's more complex than we are grasping and that it's understandable that even the architects of the SMO and their political backers were caught quite off guard with basically the whole of NATO joining the war against them, and specifically the sheer amount of planning, intelligence, targeting, tactical and operations "assistance" that was being provided.
In the end, I agree that Kiev should have been decapitated. EMP devices and precision hypersonic strikes if they wanted to minimize civilian casualties. But there would still have been a massive, NATO-aided trench and urban combat war to wage and that makes me think there's some consideration/calculus we may be missing in our armchair analysis.
"Putin and the Russian leadership (and populace) views much of Ukraine as kin or brothers who merely need to be guided in the right direction with a gentle touch rather than a knockout blow."
A lot of truth to this.
Also, the Russian leadership see Europe as the land where institutions basically work, what they themselves want to be. Those institutions aren't in actual fact anything as competent or honest as they're cracked up to be, but that isn't the point. For that matter, even if they were, they hate and fear Russia and actively wish her and her people harm.
Yes, exactly. There is a surprising level of naivete at play with the Russians. It's still amazing to me that they hadn't figured out by the time of the SMO that Europe, as a highly propagandized and managed US vassal territory, never viewed the Russians as equals and never intended to enter into any sort of negotiations or arrangements in a good faith capacity. I'm not sure how much of this is due to fealty to the US 'managers' vs. an already extant level of Russophobia in the EU. Obviously it's a combination of both, but I don't know how much of each. If they haven't figured it out by now, well, they're doomed. As we've been saying, now is probably the time for the gloves to come off and let the chips fall where they may.
Based on today's news, and assuming the Russians can figure out what exactly happened, I expect that approach is going to be abandoned. But, who knows and I guess we'll see - from Simplicius' article it sounds like the Ukies and their NATO masters are about to start targeting the Russian navy and even Sevastopol. If that happens and the gloves still don't come off, then there is something far more secretive and sinister behind this war than any of us have been clued in on. That said, I do think the drone attack on top of the Kremlin was comical and could even have been a false flag, so I wasn't that surprised that more wasn't done in response.
It is a mistake. Of course ukrainians used to be ''brothers''( not in Galicia), but after 8 years of 24/7 brainwashing it is not the case anymore. There are still millions of pro Russia of course but mainly in the Donbass only, even in Zap. and Kherson not so sure. Odessa and maybe Kharkov but forget brothers anywhere else it is too late. True that some people have family and or friends in both countries (including Crimea), but a minority now. It is a civil war a fantastic success for the anglos.
Even more than in Russia, Ukraine suffered bad institutions, and saw Europe as something different.
If hating their brothers and turning their backs on their grandparents was the price of entry into that European club, well, that was a price that they were glad to pay.
A massive mobilization was ( and of course even more now) necessary.But if you mobilize let's say 1 million, you need millions of weapons as well + long training or re training, it takes time to train and to produce weapons. Ukies mobs are forced mobilization, even with people taken by force in the streets( de facto kidnapped), training is medium (at best) or short , but ukies have almost unlimited nato weaponery available + unlimited cash( both are not eternal this is why this counter offensive is essential for them).
I'm not sure about unlimited NATO weaponry, maybe a lot of certain types, but they definitely have a major shortage of mid- and long-range artillery, especially 155mm rounds and howitzers. But to your point, not only do they have unlimited NATO cash, they also have unlimited NATO assistance with communications, targeting, surveillance, operations command, etc. I do think Russia needs to flatten western Ukraine at this point because if the signs we're seeing are accurate, it's a short matter of time before the Ukies have access to the types of long range missiles that will allow them to target the Russian navy, Sevastopol and even near Moscow.
Of course my preference above all, and having been the case all along, would be for them both to sit down and negotiate a ceasefire and new security arrangement in good faith. Unfortunately it's the Ukrainian puppets of Washington/NATO that will never be allowed to do that.
If you read Putin’s speeches they will tell you why Russia is proceeding as they are and making it legal under international law for them to be in Ukraine. Besides if Russia takes the gloves off and goes balls to the wall like America does then they will lose the support of China and other countries that are supporting them in their SMO. Seriously find the speeches so you understand what is happening.
Things might change soon though if they can prove that NATO has boots on the ground inside Ukraine. Or if they cross their red line that they determine is uncrossable. I’d think they are getting very close to it. Just my humble opinion.
Like I said to begin with, Putin is operating according to a calculus that several commentators here don't seem to want to grasp. I'm the one who said that I'm sure he does explain it in his speeches, but that I haven't had time to dig them up and translate them in the past 8 months, so perhaps your reply is better addressed to some of the others to whom I've been talking here today. IOW, you and I are on the same page. Do you have some links to pre-translated Putin speeches on this topic, BTW? Lastly on that, we (and Russia) need to stop fooling ourselves about "international law" and the annexation of Donbass and whatever else. Come on, you think that the US and EU will ever recognize it as legit? Look at Crimea. It's been 9 years and they are still saying it was an illegal "seizure" and a "sham" referendum. That's what I mean about Putin being naïve. If he thinks that the "international community" or "rules based order" will EVER recognize the legitimacy of adding Donbass to the RF, he is also fooling himself.
Now, to the point about losing Chinese support - Let's be frank. The Chinese have not provided any direct or even indirect strategic support to the war effort like NATO has to Ukraine. Rather, China is "supporting" them by engaging in mutually beneficial economic activities and refusing to condemn Russia in the UN (although the other day they might have, I forget, it was minor). So I think the actual truth of the matter is that Putin may be trying to minimize the "humanitarian" damage in order to keep China in that position; not to gain or keep their support of the prosecution of the war against Ukro-NATO.
I agree with you as well that the above may soon change given the increasing brazenness of Ukro-NATO actions and the crossing of red lines. If one of these Storm Shadow or other equivalent relatively long range missile takes out an important Russian asset inside Russia proper or kills a ton of people, then I expect the gloves to come off. Same with an attack on Russia's Navy at sea or in port at Sevastopol.
Brits want to try again to destroy the bridge and sink a few vessels.Pure ISIS terrorism.They will also try to retake ZNPP.If all fail a desperate strike on a Russian city is possible, the goal is to accuse Russia of any major **** escalation/retaliation to then reescalate.Finaly they will occupy Odessa and Nikolaev(brits bases in sight) and a coalition of Poland + 3B + maybe US-UK will enter 404 as 'peace keepers' this is why oldie Kissinger is talking of negociations in oct-nov.
They need a cease fire as they won't have enough ammo and other toys after the ukie counter off.
To be frank Russia also, but a cease fire will only delay more wars in 2024-2025 and beyond.
I see the West (mainly EU)wanting to negociate only for money reasons, they can not print like crazy as the US do, people will not tolerate austerity in exchange for... Ukraine and EU have general elections (all countries) in May 24. Or they have their victory or if not a cease fire à la Minsk 3.Otherwise so much money spent for zero result, does not look good to be reelected in some moderate countries.
If we lose Lukashenko and Erdogan, things will turn ugly eventually, but I hope this time the Kremlin has someone reliable ready for Minsk(why not a merger of both countries, safer and easier)?
You are right this war is global and by far not only about military. These are things that Strelkovites, Prigozhine and co don't understand.Connecting the dots.
I disagree. I think Russia's soft approach will cost it more allies. Countries see that Russia will do nothing to western states no matter what is done to them and therefore any military alliance with them is worthless. I can give examples. Serbia and Armenia come to mind off the top of my head.
Carpet bombing was not possible last year exactly for the very same reason as what happened today, but even much worse as ukies had tons of manpads and all their AD systems still alive then.
Hi.. I live in Norway. What is a bit strange is that every single time Ukraine has inflicted a blow on Russia if it is true or not then it is broadcast on all news programs etc... But there has not been a single word about these shootings. Do they try and not reveal a new weapon or technology etc
Would have if could have... Yah, Russian could have blown everyone to hell and beyond. That what you want? This is a limited conventional war. Rumor is the US used neutron nukes in Iraq, Syria, and HARP in Turkey, where the elections are. Want to ride the Strangelove ride on the bomb? But don't worry, it will get hotter. You dig your shelter yet? Got your gun? Where is your money? Everything is electronic and what if it all goes down? I hope it stays "conventional." Those thermobarics look bad enough, let alone the two ton daisy cutters.
Certainly I am correct on the carpet bombing point. If Russia could fly over Ukrainian cities, they would. Bombing directly is far more efficient than missiles.
I am likely correct on the other two points, not counting nuclear weapons of course.
The Ukraine is only one theatre of this war. Dismantling US global hegemony and allowing a multipolar world to emerge is the larger and more important goal.
Ukraine is the only "theatre of this war" in which Russian soldiers are being unnecessarily killed, and they're being killed because they're being forced to fight with one hand tied behind their backs. Russia can flatten Ukraine and "dismantle US global hegemony" at the same time; these aren't mutually exclusive goals.
From looking at The Mi-8MTPR1 and without doing any further research, I can't see how it would even have ejection seats. If it does, they it would seem either the entire front portion (nose) of the copter might form a large two man ejection capsule, but where is the parachute stored if so? The other option would be seats that fire forward through the window openings. Regarding the Sukhoi jet, it would also seem that even if it was a Buk, their radar would have picked up that they'd been engaged before the missile struck, wouldn't it?
There is only one helicopter in the world with ejection seats and that's the Ka-52. It accomplishes that by blowing up the specially designed rotors. Not an easy feat to put ejection mechanisms on helicopters.
That confirms my initial take, thanks. So it wouldn't be reasonable for us to discuss the possibility of the copter crews ejecting; just the one jet then right? Or were there two jets, I can't see the diagram from this comment thread. On this topic, do you think my idea about ejection seats launching forward through the window opening might have any technical merit for future designs??
The pilots are ejected with their seats. In front of the pilots are the instrument panels, dashboards and so on. No space to eject a bulky seat with pilot through. Might as well throw him against a wall! If you see inside, the only "clean space" is right on top. Thus the necessity to blow off the rotors. And the rotors are somehow designed to be blown off backwards, not to get in the way of the flying seat, possibly beheading the pilot. It's not an easy feat of engineering, that's why you don't see it on helicopters.
Yeah as someone else said, it wasn't the helicopters I was referring to with the ejections it was the jets. Particularly given the fact they're much "hardier" than helicopters in the sense that usually when jets are hit even catastrophically they can continue "floating" on a descent with plenty of time for crew to eject. Whereas a hit helicopter will be sent into an uncontrollable/catastrophic spin which, even if they had ejection systems, may not even give them enough time. So the fact that the jets didn't eject shows a very powerful, possibly head on strike that instantly killed the crew (which, now that I think of it, could cancel out the possibility of a 'rear' retreating strike as I hypothesized as possible)
Frankly this whole subthread is based on my own ignorance about helicopters, lol. But I'm glad it led to perhaps a sort of revelation or at least may have eliminated one of the potential scenario variables in trying to understand what happened.
Can Russia via for exemple sats imagery, have the answer (post strike of course).Do the sats recorded what they 'see' when they overfly an area(country, zone)? This for further analysis or is it only in real time?
They likely had some sort of external sensor pod. I’m not even sure it would have been radar, asea is a better bet. We have built external pods around it for f/a-18 and f15 that are designed to be modular. I could absolutely see them mounting something like that on the migs.
When i served as Mechanic our SU-22(SU-17M4) had ECM pods SPS-141 for Anti-Radar Missions. I read years ago the "Bundesluftwaffe" testet these Pods against Patriot Radar and was shocked about the Result...
This event was tragic and reflects a pattern of Russian military planning negilence. The Russians get caught napping and then rapidly assess and adapt, but only after some damage is done. This was yet another asymetric Ukrainian attack likely planned months in advance. I doubt it is repeatable. There is seemingly a lack of adequate paranoia in the Russian DOD for some reason. Why?? Any Russian aircraft near the border of Ukraine, and certainly Kiev, is at great risk from at least AD. What the Ukrainains , with massive NATO assistance, excel at is identifying these tactical weak points to exploit via a one time asymetrical attack planned well in advance. Some people might just call this part of war. You must understand, these attacks reveal a great deal about Ukraine to the Russians. This all seems to me as part of the "slow to harness, fast to ride" nature of the Russians. They do seem to like to get punched in the mouth before taking out their hammers. Russia will need to get more aggressive and continue raising the pain dial for NATO. The massive destruction of the artillery and fuel depots in Western Ukraine over the past 2 days as well the the glide bomb attacks at the front have taken an enormous toll on Ukraine, and they are hitting back now in the only ways they can. Russia also clearly needs to take steps to sterilize the border areas and minimize these risks. Seems to be their Achilles heal in this conflict, and its time to put a stop to it. My nature is to be more aggressive, but you cannot afford to get emotional. Trust the Russians will figure this all out and eliminate the threat.
Well that is Tradition it seems for Russia, take a beating over and over and only then wake up and actually land some crushing blows. They are like Rocky, can only function if they get bloodied first, how ironic, an American icon is Russian in spirit.
Yes but one day it will be too late..I can already tell you what the next NATO escalations will be, if I can (with no military background) I hope RF can as well?Russia underestimates both 404 and even more Nato determination, their survival is at stake. Just need a normal IQ a good sense of analysis and a good knowledge of your ennemies + mentality.
Planning negligence is a little overboard. Maybe someone got complacent and those crews paid the price. Maybe something changed and this is how the Russians learn of it.
The other side has smart people too, don't underestimate their ability to surprise.
Anything is possible, but it appears to be absence of extreme paranoia by Russia MOD that is required in existential combat. There are other examples. Of course, you cannot stop everything, but this was planned out well ahead. It was terrorism. Hopefully lessons will be learned.
"This was yet another asymetric Ukrainian attack likely planned months in advance. "
If true then shows Ukie capabilities in a negative light. They plan months ahead for an op that has no strategic value, will not change the outcome (their own eventual demise), and is done just for PR optics.
Ukraine is fighting a propaganda war. Terrorism is their MO. They have zero chance to defeat Russia militarily. Hence you see Zelensky doing PR tours of Europe while Russia bombs away.
Sounds plausible. The West must be getting desperate over these glide bomb attacks. If true, WWIII is only a whisker away. Yet the F-22 has one of the most advanced radars on any fighter. It would fill the bill, especially why everybody was caught by surprise. You have to wonder why bloggers are not paying more attention to this possibility. Perhaps it's too scary to contemplate?
Another possibility is perhaps a Patriot battery having been moved relatively close to the border.
Hope it's on topic, but what is the story on the claimed interception of a Kinzhal missile? The debris pictures that have been shown do not look very believable to me but somehow I am harboring a lingering suspicion the claim might be true. One picture shows what initially looks like a maybe slightly conical sewage pipe partly burried in a lawn. It could be the warhead casing but wouldn't the warhead blow up in an interception, pulverizing its casing? Another picture shows what looks like the tip of a missile with a hole in it. But it's not very believable either. A hit-to-kill intercept at high Mach numbers would pulverize whatever it hits, it would not just leave a hole in an otherwise intact large piece. A fragmentation blast seems unlikely, as these missile variants have a very low probability of intercepting a Kinzhal. In any case this piece seems to have a rather large wall diameter. The Kinzhal must surely have a tip that is rather heat resistant but would it require such a large wall thickness? Cross section drawings of the Kinzhal that I have seen suggest a much smaller thickness.
In the previous story I noted the difficulty of Patriot v Kinzhal intercepts at operational speeds. This was likely an obsolete Russian missile repurposed (successfully!!) as a decoy. An empty warhead destroyed by an expensive Patriot.
My guess is a pair of F-22's, as you say, formed on a MiG flight, then darting in before they boogie back to base. The U.S. getting payback for the Reaper and testing the waters..
The Ukro "Counter-offensive" is dead before it starts, UNLESS USAF decisively intervenes using F-22/B-2, which crosses a MAJOR red line, so they need to test Russian AD/AA radar limits in a peripheral way to gauge the likelihood of success.
I think your F-22 theory best explains it. But, at least six F-22. Also, no need for any MIGs. In fact, no need for any AFU knowledge of this mission. (I'd say it was a risk if AFU had known about it).
No need for EW counter-jamming, just form on a MiG flight as LL says, MiG's will be spotted and duly noted as being out of range (for the MiG's weapons) and duly jammed by the Mi-8, leaving F-22 unspotted and their fire control uninterrupted as the Mi-8 crew is already distracted by known threats.
No solid evidence of jets of any kind. Stealth doesn't mean invisible. Latest greatest F-35 can't operate safely without ECW & no way US risks an F-22 for this incident, guaranteed. That would risk WW3 as an open act of war on Russia by the US. Even Yanks aren't that stupid, yet.
I'm fairly convinced it was a simple S-300 system moved close to border. It makes the most sense (at least for now without further clues). BUK, I realized, is probably too short range to reach Klintsy from the border. An S-300 would do it somewhere in Chernigov region.
That was my initial guess also. However, I watched a fairly clear video of one of the Mi8's getting hit on Southfront and there was a relatively small explosion of black smoke more like an air-air size warhead than a S300 or BUK. After being hit the helicopter flew on for a hundred metres or so and then erupted into a fireball. Although the video was clear and the chopper maybe at a kilometre or so altitude no missile was visible before the black puff of smoke, but by that point in its flight it would be coasting, and not leaving a smoke trail. What is difficult to understand is why none of the four aircraft, or an A-50 AMACS, or any of the Russian ground based AA radar picked up the incoming missiles, whatever type they were. https://southfront.org/breaking-two-russian-aircraft-shot-down-over-bryansk-region-video/
For the F-22 to fire missiles, it would have to use its radar. Someone would detect the unique signal. Maybe it did not play a factor in this engagement, but it would alert the Russians that F-22s are in play.
If so, it's not something that can be consistently done. Serbians knocked down an F-117 back in the nineties, huge embarrassment if a F-22 fell in Ukraine.
The Russians develop a package and tactics that allow them to deliver larger munitions while keeping their assets safe. After a few weeks or months, the enemy comes up with a counter tactic.
Perhaps it might only be a one off ambush, but enough to cause the cautious Russians to pause their efforts which were obviously bearing fruit.
Sadly, this is the nature of war. It's not a video game, that you can press reset and start a new game. Maybe the important lesson is that Russia was hurting Ukraine, so they must redouble their efforts. Learn all they can about what when wrong. Standup 3 new, improved, units to take the place of the one that has fallen and double the number of bombs dropped in support of defeating the West.
I would just forget the PR, and just get thousands of Ballistic rockets from Iran and North Korea. I'm sure both countries would be eager for a trade in tech with Russia, and to see how their main deterrence force fairs in a total war scenario against Western weapons.
Yep it's a natural cycle. Russia has recently stepped up air attacks A LOT because of: 1. the attrition of Ukrainian AD and 2. the introduction of new gliding bombs. However, Ukraine figured out a way to bait them into a trap this time. It's a constant cycle of adaptation of both sides.
Prigozhin 'cinema( should not be tolerated) he must go and asap. Give him some rest and only an admin task, take care of African contracts (f e),and shut up.And any army in the World he would already be in jail or executed.
About Russia it is about time to declare war not only on 404 which is 100 % NATO thing now but time to REALLY retaliate by giving them ''costs'' in military, infras, humans etc..on Nato borders states (Poland, Romania as a starter), UK troops for exemple, weapons, command centers, airfields. It may look crazy ( it would be in normal times), but the only thing which is important for nato politicos leaders is their money, their wealth, their confort. After a de facto declaration of war, stocks will collapse, trillions will be wiped out very quickly, people in nato countries will be scared to death,body bags will be impossible to hide, rich people will fly away to safe places like Southern Hemisphere, their economy will collapse, energy prices will again skyrocket, millions Eastern EU people will search refuge in 'safer' Western Europe countries etc..they will capitulate much faster than ukies(they will never do),as total panic will take place at least in Europe + UK It is still a bit early for this plan to be activated but I hope the head of the SVR- GRU can convince VVP that this will soon be the only joker left in Russian hands (out of nukes and MAD). Military situation on this or that place (like the Bakhmut 'idée fixe') is not important, ony the big picture and the determination of your adversary NATO ( 404 is not the real adversary just one tool). Russia must give NATO ( mainly UK tories clowns in London) a final ultimatum otherwise anything in the air (awacs, drones, fighters etc..) or under sea near 404 even in international air routes or water, will be shot down or sink as a starter. It can be done via Embassies. Then expel all journos + diplomats from Russia, terminate diplo relations untill the end of the war, stop any RU deliveries (energy, wheats, fertilizers, gold, diamonds etc) to unfriendly states even if it generates temporary losses. In a total war this is mandatory. Relations will continue with 85 % of the World.Russia can survive years in almost Autarky, this is absolutely NOT their case(at least in the EU + UK), US, Canada are +- ok as they have energy and still some decent industry.
Kanada is screwed, oil oil everywhere, not a fn drop to sell. Deutschland came here to buy LNG for winter, Turdeau offered Hydrogen gas instead, but only in 2 years because it doesn't exist yet...
Father Trudeau wanted already in 1976 to devellop near Montreal second airport Mirabel YMX(now a cargo one), a big Hydrogen industry but it never materialized.
Another 'simple' explanation could be good ol' complacency ... "we're operating over friendly territory" ... "we've run this operation a dozen times in the last week with not a single siting of enemy threats" ... "I could fly this mission in my sleep" ...
If the group's security depends on a high degree of precision then any slack off in operational procedures by one (or multiple) of the units could spell doom for the entire group if the enemy is able to capitalize on the error.
The VVS has flown hundreds (thousands?) of these types of sorties without (as far as we know) this level of losses; hopefully this will come down to a case of complacency and/or catastrophic equipment failure.
On the other hand, if this is a new AFU/NATO capability (or tactic) then we may see a few more of these losses before Russia adapts to the new threat. As others have commented ... "that's war".
This ambush could also be from multiple sources, after extensive intelligence gathering by western satellites and air systems they likely found a weak point, most likely a route that the Russian Air forces used on multiple occasions and set up a kill zone there. A mistake the US air force made over Vietnam, where they were sending their B52s on the same routes over and over, and then Vietnam just shot them down easily since on the way back they were defenceless. The Air Force had to be yelled at by the General or I think even the president to change tactics and stop using the same routes like they're migrating birds.
A captive senior officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured in the area of the Zaporozhye Front told an interesting version of the disappearance of Zaluzhny and Syrsky.
According to the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Zelensky is conducting an internal investigation into suspicions of Zaluzhny and Syrsky in a military coup and seizure of power. In this regard, both are temporarily in informational and physical isolation, but within the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
⚠️#Ukraine - In Pavlograd and Khmelnytsky, #NATO had set up giant ammunition depots, available to the Kiev entity, which were pulverized by strikes🇷🇺
What deplored Yuri Kasyanov, former adviser to Petro Poroshenko and well-known Ukronazi propagandist...
🇷🇺Of the 300,000 reservists mobilized at the end of last year, 150,000 are still on training grounds in Western #Russia.
Ukrainian troops have only 3 weeks of training, Russians have 6 months...
▶️Possible offensive towards Belgorod in preparation with intent to break into Fed territory. from #Russia from 15 to 20 km
➡️Accumulation of troops and equipment in this area since April 10
▪️Several units🇺🇦 withdrawn from the front to be reinforced and supplemented for this purpose, such as the 67th mechanized brigade of the Pravy Sektor (ex DUK)
▪️20,000 regular soldiers & 10,000 members of the territorial defense awaiting commitment
Yes there was some strange rumor/theory floating around that something is 'about to happen to Zelensky' (like coup? etc?) by "July" or this summer. Of course I give it very low confidence standard rumor mill b.s., but it's worth mentioning and keeping an eye on just in case.
Strange that ZE left 404 the day of the Kremlin strike for a very organized European 'tour' with multiple stops(today in Rome Meloni US agent + even the Pope).He is following his tour in Germany Monday where he will get another 2.7 billions package, then Macron...but when will he be back?This all show is no coincidence with the escalation, counter offensive; terror acts, direct strikes in Russia mainland and both generals or in temporary 'jail'(if true maybe a total control of Kiev by US + SAS forces to avoid a coup,when ZE is out for so many days/weeks)?Too many coincidences on this timeline till today, and I expect even much worse soon as they now declared total war on Russia not only in 404 but in Russia. In Minsk 'Luka' has not been seen since Moscow parade, he is sick, rumors of preparation (in Poland) of a colour rev in Minsk or a coup.
If we add Turkey elections today and also rumors of a coup if Erdogan wins( unlikely according to surveys, but the advance of the pro Nato candidate is now at only 50.7 and as in Turkey elections are always rigged everyting is possible, as many pro Erdogan voters are expats (5 millions), they are not accounted in surveys. We will see. One thing is sure the West is going for broke, they are now in full 'neocons double down' mode, this the fight of their entire life. I'm afraid they could even try a desperate catastrophic thing(anglos) like a first strike as they are all convinced now (due to all RU red lines crossed never any reaction) that: 1) Putin will not dare to retaliate 2) RU nukes don't even work(very frequent such idiotic statements are made by multiple US UK EU officials on twitter) 3) They are sure Russian version of ''Yats is our guy'' is already awaiting in Moscow with 5th and 6th columns help.
The victory is now even more existential for the West as their all 'rules based order including dollar' is in real danger for the first time ever.Even Japan (vassal) is selling US t bonds like China and many other countries, dedolarization is happening much faster than once expected, they know the only thing to stop this is to destroy Russia by any mean now, as if they win, forget about SCo, brics +, Syria peace, Iran Saudis peace, even India + China will capitulate and will pay a heavy price because they 'dared' to support Russia. It is all of nothing for both sides.
Zelensky, a Jew, sent thousands of Azov (Nazis) of to die. Somebody is going to be blamed for getting Ukraine smashed, and it's not going to be ethnic Ukrainians.
Beyond ridiculous. It's been NATO with its invasion of the post-Soviet space and then Ukraine with its invasion, post-Maidan, of its Russian regions and its creeping ethnocide of all things non-"Ukrainian" (according to their definition of what "Ukrainian" is) who started this war. Figuratively, if you step outside to pull out a gun and aim it at the head of your neighbour while he is peacefully mowing his lawn just across the fence, and he then steps over the fence to take the gun away from you, then he hasn't "invaded" your space. Zelensky was demanding nuclear weapons when he attended the Munich security conference in autum 2021, and no western leader objected. Russia had no choice.
Your comment will get lost because it's fake news drivel from someone brainwashed by western media
I assume from your comments that you condemn US actions in Iraq, Afghanistan and the illegal deployment of troops in Syria. Not to mention all the other questionable aggressive military action of the past thirty years. One does not need to be a Putin fan to recognize the total hypocrisy of western reaction to Russian actions in Ukraine.
Whether or not Putin did the right thing to launch the SMO from a Russian perspective is a question that historians will no doubt ask for years. My sense is that he did it reluctantly and felt he had no other choice. The west’s bellicose reaction has probably served only to reinforce his belief.
We do need new leaders in the west. My fear is that their next step will be to engineer war with China before they are done though.
Jim Zelensky maybe....?
This, along with all the other small wounds the Ukuleles (aka NATO) have inflicted, wouldn’t have happened if Russia took the gloves off last year when they should’ve and flattened Ukraine with massive carpet bombing and missle strikes.
Exactly. I should add that there is more to be gained in analyzing one's failures than one's successes.
Honestly this whole thing has been badly managed, I don't even blame the military, its the political decisions that are still the biggest weak point. Russian people seem to be begging to go to a total war footing since that is what NATO is doing, but Putin seems to still be reluctant to shake the boat and actually commit fully. Total War is upon them, pretending its not wont change things.
If you were Putin, would you have gone gloves-off realizing that Kiev was where the Rus origianted. It's like western ppl carpet bombing all of Rome to rubbles. Would you want to see the cradle of western civilization meeting this faith. I truly understood why Putin didn't want glove-off. But if he is replaced by the Neocons (ex-communists), that's a different story.
Sorry Puss in Boots. I am more comfortable with Russia taking things very seriously, deeply considering the implications of any action in so doing, at least considering the impact on the RoW. I do not have a problem with Russia's slow approach, at least civilians are being saved and soldiers. Just because they are not doing USA Shock and Awe bombings killing millions of civilians is to their credit. There is no incompetence, it's just a different type of war fare to that the USA is used to.
The collective West is itching for Russia to escalate, just sitting their itching so that NATO can become an 'official' party to the War. Russia are right not to bite Might and Right is on their sde. No need to abuse that. People should have more Faith and less armchair general shenanigans. Russia will escalate when it is right for them to do so. In the meantime we, the world, needs them to stand up to NATO and the collective West for the sake of humanity, freedom, liberty and democracy. So, they take it slowly. Good thing I say. Better that than these idiotic, knee jerk and hysterical reactions from the collective West. Rationality, Reason and Right will prevail. No need to kill millions of civilians to do that. God Bless Putin and Russia. They are right and will prevail.
Et Lux in tenebris lucet et tenebrae eam non conprehenderunt. Yes, we live in dark times, the battle is not just for Russia, it wants to subjugate all of us. God Bless Putin, Russia. They are in the light and will prevail.
Yes. And another part is also the international implications for the world. Not the West but the rest. Carpet bombing might be easy, diplomacy is not. And I mean diplomacy of Russia vis à vis the world.
Russia knows total war is upon them.
It's a complicated calculus, though. Very early on in the SMO, Newsweek (aka the CIA's domestic newsletter) published an article detailing how Russia could easily flatten Ukraine, "Shawk 'n Aaah" style along the lines you mention, but refused to do it. I am not up to speed on Putin's speeches in the past 8 months, but it would surprise me if he hadn't laid out his reasons for conducting the operation in the manner that it has been proceeding. My personal belief is that he was and is being exceptionally careful to avoid civilian casualties and may (naively?) be attempting to avoid the 'optics' of such an operation as it would be presented in "the west" and even in the Global South. IOW, waging a war that differs drastically from the type that the US/UK/France have waged in the ME and Africa for decades; see: Syria and Iraq and Libya (or to be frank, Korea an Vietnam/Laos/Cambodia). I also think Putin and the Russian leadership (and populace) views much of Ukraine as kin or brothers who merely need to be guided in the right direction with a gentle touch rather than a knockout blow.
At this point, however, as you say, the glove should probably come off. Nothing Putin or Russia do was ever going to be characterized as anything other than brutal, illegal, anti-humanitarian barbarism. On the economic side, I think the Russians' top brass has realized this and are committed to a second system for international trade and banking. What remains to be seen is whether the Russian military will decide to end this war quickly and decisively or whether they will continue to gamble with this slow meatgrinder war of attrition that by the very nature of such operations will continue to result in Russian casualties and attacks on Russian assets.
Once it became clear very early on that there was going to be no negotiatiated settlement to this mess, Russia should’ve taken the gloves off and flattened Ukraine. I would place that moment to when they were on the verge of a settlement and Boris Johnson blew it up. At that point, Russia should’ve first launched a massive decapitation strike on Kiev and wherever else they knew the military and political leadership was located, then brutally carpet bomb all the Ukulele fortifications in the east and worked their way west, destroying anything and everything im their way to the western border.
I'm with you on the timing. But keep in mind that at the time BoJo carried out his little sabotage mission on the ceasefire agreement, Russia had yet to call up the hundreds of thousands of reserves. I am not privy to the internal political climate there (Russia), as it's difficult to get a handle on with all the SEO narrative/information control here in the US and of course the blatant censorship, but I do think it's more complex than we are grasping and that it's understandable that even the architects of the SMO and their political backers were caught quite off guard with basically the whole of NATO joining the war against them, and specifically the sheer amount of planning, intelligence, targeting, tactical and operations "assistance" that was being provided.
In the end, I agree that Kiev should have been decapitated. EMP devices and precision hypersonic strikes if they wanted to minimize civilian casualties. But there would still have been a massive, NATO-aided trench and urban combat war to wage and that makes me think there's some consideration/calculus we may be missing in our armchair analysis.
That was another miscalculation by the political leadership.
Russia knew from the beginning there would be no negotiations.
They can't flatten Ukraine. Russia has had the gloves off. That Russia is pulling its punches is a common misperception.
"Putin and the Russian leadership (and populace) views much of Ukraine as kin or brothers who merely need to be guided in the right direction with a gentle touch rather than a knockout blow."
A lot of truth to this.
Also, the Russian leadership see Europe as the land where institutions basically work, what they themselves want to be. Those institutions aren't in actual fact anything as competent or honest as they're cracked up to be, but that isn't the point. For that matter, even if they were, they hate and fear Russia and actively wish her and her people harm.
Yes, exactly. There is a surprising level of naivete at play with the Russians. It's still amazing to me that they hadn't figured out by the time of the SMO that Europe, as a highly propagandized and managed US vassal territory, never viewed the Russians as equals and never intended to enter into any sort of negotiations or arrangements in a good faith capacity. I'm not sure how much of this is due to fealty to the US 'managers' vs. an already extant level of Russophobia in the EU. Obviously it's a combination of both, but I don't know how much of each. If they haven't figured it out by now, well, they're doomed. As we've been saying, now is probably the time for the gloves to come off and let the chips fall where they may.
Russia's response seems to be a constant state of "Surely the West wont escalate THAT far" after each and every escalation.
Based on today's news, and assuming the Russians can figure out what exactly happened, I expect that approach is going to be abandoned. But, who knows and I guess we'll see - from Simplicius' article it sounds like the Ukies and their NATO masters are about to start targeting the Russian navy and even Sevastopol. If that happens and the gloves still don't come off, then there is something far more secretive and sinister behind this war than any of us have been clued in on. That said, I do think the drone attack on top of the Kremlin was comical and could even have been a false flag, so I wasn't that surprised that more wasn't done in response.
It is a mistake. Of course ukrainians used to be ''brothers''( not in Galicia), but after 8 years of 24/7 brainwashing it is not the case anymore. There are still millions of pro Russia of course but mainly in the Donbass only, even in Zap. and Kherson not so sure. Odessa and maybe Kharkov but forget brothers anywhere else it is too late. True that some people have family and or friends in both countries (including Crimea), but a minority now. It is a civil war a fantastic success for the anglos.
Even more than in Russia, Ukraine suffered bad institutions, and saw Europe as something different.
If hating their brothers and turning their backs on their grandparents was the price of entry into that European club, well, that was a price that they were glad to pay.
That's soft power.
They will never enter EU or NATO.
Don't know, but that's not the point.
A massive mobilization was ( and of course even more now) necessary.But if you mobilize let's say 1 million, you need millions of weapons as well + long training or re training, it takes time to train and to produce weapons. Ukies mobs are forced mobilization, even with people taken by force in the streets( de facto kidnapped), training is medium (at best) or short , but ukies have almost unlimited nato weaponery available + unlimited cash( both are not eternal this is why this counter offensive is essential for them).
I'm not sure about unlimited NATO weaponry, maybe a lot of certain types, but they definitely have a major shortage of mid- and long-range artillery, especially 155mm rounds and howitzers. But to your point, not only do they have unlimited NATO cash, they also have unlimited NATO assistance with communications, targeting, surveillance, operations command, etc. I do think Russia needs to flatten western Ukraine at this point because if the signs we're seeing are accurate, it's a short matter of time before the Ukies have access to the types of long range missiles that will allow them to target the Russian navy, Sevastopol and even near Moscow.
Of course my preference above all, and having been the case all along, would be for them both to sit down and negotiate a ceasefire and new security arrangement in good faith. Unfortunately it's the Ukrainian puppets of Washington/NATO that will never be allowed to do that.
If you read Putin’s speeches they will tell you why Russia is proceeding as they are and making it legal under international law for them to be in Ukraine. Besides if Russia takes the gloves off and goes balls to the wall like America does then they will lose the support of China and other countries that are supporting them in their SMO. Seriously find the speeches so you understand what is happening.
Things might change soon though if they can prove that NATO has boots on the ground inside Ukraine. Or if they cross their red line that they determine is uncrossable. I’d think they are getting very close to it. Just my humble opinion.
Like I said to begin with, Putin is operating according to a calculus that several commentators here don't seem to want to grasp. I'm the one who said that I'm sure he does explain it in his speeches, but that I haven't had time to dig them up and translate them in the past 8 months, so perhaps your reply is better addressed to some of the others to whom I've been talking here today. IOW, you and I are on the same page. Do you have some links to pre-translated Putin speeches on this topic, BTW? Lastly on that, we (and Russia) need to stop fooling ourselves about "international law" and the annexation of Donbass and whatever else. Come on, you think that the US and EU will ever recognize it as legit? Look at Crimea. It's been 9 years and they are still saying it was an illegal "seizure" and a "sham" referendum. That's what I mean about Putin being naïve. If he thinks that the "international community" or "rules based order" will EVER recognize the legitimacy of adding Donbass to the RF, he is also fooling himself.
Now, to the point about losing Chinese support - Let's be frank. The Chinese have not provided any direct or even indirect strategic support to the war effort like NATO has to Ukraine. Rather, China is "supporting" them by engaging in mutually beneficial economic activities and refusing to condemn Russia in the UN (although the other day they might have, I forget, it was minor). So I think the actual truth of the matter is that Putin may be trying to minimize the "humanitarian" damage in order to keep China in that position; not to gain or keep their support of the prosecution of the war against Ukro-NATO.
I agree with you as well that the above may soon change given the increasing brazenness of Ukro-NATO actions and the crossing of red lines. If one of these Storm Shadow or other equivalent relatively long range missile takes out an important Russian asset inside Russia proper or kills a ton of people, then I expect the gloves to come off. Same with an attack on Russia's Navy at sea or in port at Sevastopol.
Brits want to try again to destroy the bridge and sink a few vessels.Pure ISIS terrorism.They will also try to retake ZNPP.If all fail a desperate strike on a Russian city is possible, the goal is to accuse Russia of any major **** escalation/retaliation to then reescalate.Finaly they will occupy Odessa and Nikolaev(brits bases in sight) and a coalition of Poland + 3B + maybe US-UK will enter 404 as 'peace keepers' this is why oldie Kissinger is talking of negociations in oct-nov.
They need a cease fire as they won't have enough ammo and other toys after the ukie counter off.
To be frank Russia also, but a cease fire will only delay more wars in 2024-2025 and beyond.
I see the West (mainly EU)wanting to negociate only for money reasons, they can not print like crazy as the US do, people will not tolerate austerity in exchange for... Ukraine and EU have general elections (all countries) in May 24. Or they have their victory or if not a cease fire à la Minsk 3.Otherwise so much money spent for zero result, does not look good to be reelected in some moderate countries.
If we lose Lukashenko and Erdogan, things will turn ugly eventually, but I hope this time the Kremlin has someone reliable ready for Minsk(why not a merger of both countries, safer and easier)?
You are right this war is global and by far not only about military. These are things that Strelkovites, Prigozhine and co don't understand.Connecting the dots.
I disagree. I think Russia's soft approach will cost it more allies. Countries see that Russia will do nothing to western states no matter what is done to them and therefore any military alliance with them is worthless. I can give examples. Serbia and Armenia come to mind off the top of my head.
Carpet bombing was not possible last year exactly for the very same reason as what happened today, but even much worse as ukies had tons of manpads and all their AD systems still alive then.
I thought the Russians largely knocked out the Ukie AD systems very early on?
Nope
A large part perhaps but UA also got many new systems not only new Western ones but even legacy S-300 / Soviet systems from ex-Soviet countries
Hi.. I live in Norway. What is a bit strange is that every single time Ukraine has inflicted a blow on Russia if it is true or not then it is broadcast on all news programs etc... But there has not been a single word about these shootings. Do they try and not reveal a new weapon or technology etc
Would have if could have... Yah, Russian could have blown everyone to hell and beyond. That what you want? This is a limited conventional war. Rumor is the US used neutron nukes in Iraq, Syria, and HARP in Turkey, where the elections are. Want to ride the Strangelove ride on the bomb? But don't worry, it will get hotter. You dig your shelter yet? Got your gun? Where is your money? Everything is electronic and what if it all goes down? I hope it stays "conventional." Those thermobarics look bad enough, let alone the two ton daisy cutters.
See if you can dig up the images of an alleged neutron bomb in Yemen a few years back. The rumour mill puts the blame on the Illegal Settler State.
Russia can't flatten Ukrainian cities. They can't overtly to carpet bomb and don't have enough missiles to flatten a modern city.
Tactically, flattening cities is useless, even if it could be done.
"Russia can't flatten Ukrainian cities. They can't overtly to carpet bomb and don't have enough missiles to flatten a modern city."
Three erroneous claims in one sentence.
Certainly I am correct on the carpet bombing point. If Russia could fly over Ukrainian cities, they would. Bombing directly is far more efficient than missiles.
I am likely correct on the other two points, not counting nuclear weapons of course.
The Ukraine is only one theatre of this war. Dismantling US global hegemony and allowing a multipolar world to emerge is the larger and more important goal.
Ukraine is the only "theatre of this war" in which Russian soldiers are being unnecessarily killed, and they're being killed because they're being forced to fight with one hand tied behind their backs. Russia can flatten Ukraine and "dismantle US global hegemony" at the same time; these aren't mutually exclusive goals.
From looking at The Mi-8MTPR1 and without doing any further research, I can't see how it would even have ejection seats. If it does, they it would seem either the entire front portion (nose) of the copter might form a large two man ejection capsule, but where is the parachute stored if so? The other option would be seats that fire forward through the window openings. Regarding the Sukhoi jet, it would also seem that even if it was a Buk, their radar would have picked up that they'd been engaged before the missile struck, wouldn't it?
There is only one helicopter in the world with ejection seats and that's the Ka-52. It accomplishes that by blowing up the specially designed rotors. Not an easy feat to put ejection mechanisms on helicopters.
That confirms my initial take, thanks. So it wouldn't be reasonable for us to discuss the possibility of the copter crews ejecting; just the one jet then right? Or were there two jets, I can't see the diagram from this comment thread. On this topic, do you think my idea about ejection seats launching forward through the window opening might have any technical merit for future designs??
Two jets.
Either i'm stupid or brilliant but why not pop off the front glass and launch pilots forward instead of up and into the rotors?
The pilots are ejected with their seats. In front of the pilots are the instrument panels, dashboards and so on. No space to eject a bulky seat with pilot through. Might as well throw him against a wall! If you see inside, the only "clean space" is right on top. Thus the necessity to blow off the rotors. And the rotors are somehow designed to be blown off backwards, not to get in the way of the flying seat, possibly beheading the pilot. It's not an easy feat of engineering, that's why you don't see it on helicopters.
Yeah as someone else said, it wasn't the helicopters I was referring to with the ejections it was the jets. Particularly given the fact they're much "hardier" than helicopters in the sense that usually when jets are hit even catastrophically they can continue "floating" on a descent with plenty of time for crew to eject. Whereas a hit helicopter will be sent into an uncontrollable/catastrophic spin which, even if they had ejection systems, may not even give them enough time. So the fact that the jets didn't eject shows a very powerful, possibly head on strike that instantly killed the crew (which, now that I think of it, could cancel out the possibility of a 'rear' retreating strike as I hypothesized as possible)
Frankly this whole subthread is based on my own ignorance about helicopters, lol. But I'm glad it led to perhaps a sort of revelation or at least may have eliminated one of the potential scenario variables in trying to understand what happened.
Can Russia via for exemple sats imagery, have the answer (post strike of course).Do the sats recorded what they 'see' when they overfly an area(country, zone)? This for further analysis or is it only in real time?
H
They likely had some sort of external sensor pod. I’m not even sure it would have been radar, asea is a better bet. We have built external pods around it for f/a-18 and f15 that are designed to be modular. I could absolutely see them mounting something like that on the migs.
👍As long as power supply voltages are compatible the rest is mech/fab/software interface. Anything's possible in hard situations.
When i served as Mechanic our SU-22(SU-17M4) had ECM pods SPS-141 for Anti-Radar Missions. I read years ago the "Bundesluftwaffe" testet these Pods against Patriot Radar and was shocked about the Result...
Complacency kills.
This event was tragic and reflects a pattern of Russian military planning negilence. The Russians get caught napping and then rapidly assess and adapt, but only after some damage is done. This was yet another asymetric Ukrainian attack likely planned months in advance. I doubt it is repeatable. There is seemingly a lack of adequate paranoia in the Russian DOD for some reason. Why?? Any Russian aircraft near the border of Ukraine, and certainly Kiev, is at great risk from at least AD. What the Ukrainains , with massive NATO assistance, excel at is identifying these tactical weak points to exploit via a one time asymetrical attack planned well in advance. Some people might just call this part of war. You must understand, these attacks reveal a great deal about Ukraine to the Russians. This all seems to me as part of the "slow to harness, fast to ride" nature of the Russians. They do seem to like to get punched in the mouth before taking out their hammers. Russia will need to get more aggressive and continue raising the pain dial for NATO. The massive destruction of the artillery and fuel depots in Western Ukraine over the past 2 days as well the the glide bomb attacks at the front have taken an enormous toll on Ukraine, and they are hitting back now in the only ways they can. Russia also clearly needs to take steps to sterilize the border areas and minimize these risks. Seems to be their Achilles heal in this conflict, and its time to put a stop to it. My nature is to be more aggressive, but you cannot afford to get emotional. Trust the Russians will figure this all out and eliminate the threat.
Well that is Tradition it seems for Russia, take a beating over and over and only then wake up and actually land some crushing blows. They are like Rocky, can only function if they get bloodied first, how ironic, an American icon is Russian in spirit.
Yes but one day it will be too late..I can already tell you what the next NATO escalations will be, if I can (with no military background) I hope RF can as well?Russia underestimates both 404 and even more Nato determination, their survival is at stake. Just need a normal IQ a good sense of analysis and a good knowledge of your ennemies + mentality.
US can only push so hard, too hard and Europe will jump off the wagon.
I hope so.
Planning negligence is a little overboard. Maybe someone got complacent and those crews paid the price. Maybe something changed and this is how the Russians learn of it.
The other side has smart people too, don't underestimate their ability to surprise.
Anything is possible, but it appears to be absence of extreme paranoia by Russia MOD that is required in existential combat. There are other examples. Of course, you cannot stop everything, but this was planned out well ahead. It was terrorism. Hopefully lessons will be learned.
There's only so much analysis you can do before you become paralyzed.
A good plan now is better than a perfect one later.
"This was yet another asymetric Ukrainian attack likely planned months in advance. "
If true then shows Ukie capabilities in a negative light. They plan months ahead for an op that has no strategic value, will not change the outcome (their own eventual demise), and is done just for PR optics.
Ukraine is fighting a propaganda war. Terrorism is their MO. They have zero chance to defeat Russia militarily. Hence you see Zelensky doing PR tours of Europe while Russia bombs away.
Commanding/Obeying stupid overconfident tactics. Better now than later, except for the crewmen & family☦️🙏
This is becoming a clusterfuck.
My guess is that it was an F-22 using MiG 29 as cover.
Sounds plausible. The West must be getting desperate over these glide bomb attacks. If true, WWIII is only a whisker away. Yet the F-22 has one of the most advanced radars on any fighter. It would fill the bill, especially why everybody was caught by surprise. You have to wonder why bloggers are not paying more attention to this possibility. Perhaps it's too scary to contemplate?
Another possibility is perhaps a Patriot battery having been moved relatively close to the border.
Hope it's on topic, but what is the story on the claimed interception of a Kinzhal missile? The debris pictures that have been shown do not look very believable to me but somehow I am harboring a lingering suspicion the claim might be true. One picture shows what initially looks like a maybe slightly conical sewage pipe partly burried in a lawn. It could be the warhead casing but wouldn't the warhead blow up in an interception, pulverizing its casing? Another picture shows what looks like the tip of a missile with a hole in it. But it's not very believable either. A hit-to-kill intercept at high Mach numbers would pulverize whatever it hits, it would not just leave a hole in an otherwise intact large piece. A fragmentation blast seems unlikely, as these missile variants have a very low probability of intercepting a Kinzhal. In any case this piece seems to have a rather large wall diameter. The Kinzhal must surely have a tip that is rather heat resistant but would it require such a large wall thickness? Cross section drawings of the Kinzhal that I have seen suggest a much smaller thickness.
In the previous story I noted the difficulty of Patriot v Kinzhal intercepts at operational speeds. This was likely an obsolete Russian missile repurposed (successfully!!) as a decoy. An empty warhead destroyed by an expensive Patriot.
Decoy may make sense. In that case we learn how thick the fuselage layer is on a Russian hypersonic missile. Quite thick.
My guess is a pair of F-22's, as you say, formed on a MiG flight, then darting in before they boogie back to base. The U.S. getting payback for the Reaper and testing the waters..
The Ukro "Counter-offensive" is dead before it starts, UNLESS USAF decisively intervenes using F-22/B-2, which crosses a MAJOR red line, so they need to test Russian AD/AA radar limits in a peripheral way to gauge the likelihood of success.
I think your F-22 theory best explains it. But, at least six F-22. Also, no need for any MIGs. In fact, no need for any AFU knowledge of this mission. (I'd say it was a risk if AFU had known about it).
F-22 needs ECW plane to jam to achieve maximum stealth. Doubt US would risk losing an expensive stealth balloon buster for this mission...
No need for EW counter-jamming, just form on a MiG flight as LL says, MiG's will be spotted and duly noted as being out of range (for the MiG's weapons) and duly jammed by the Mi-8, leaving F-22 unspotted and their fire control uninterrupted as the Mi-8 crew is already distracted by known threats.
No solid evidence of jets of any kind. Stealth doesn't mean invisible. Latest greatest F-35 can't operate safely without ECW & no way US risks an F-22 for this incident, guaranteed. That would risk WW3 as an open act of war on Russia by the US. Even Yanks aren't that stupid, yet.
I'm fairly convinced it was a simple S-300 system moved close to border. It makes the most sense (at least for now without further clues). BUK, I realized, is probably too short range to reach Klintsy from the border. An S-300 would do it somewhere in Chernigov region.
That was my initial guess also. However, I watched a fairly clear video of one of the Mi8's getting hit on Southfront and there was a relatively small explosion of black smoke more like an air-air size warhead than a S300 or BUK. After being hit the helicopter flew on for a hundred metres or so and then erupted into a fireball. Although the video was clear and the chopper maybe at a kilometre or so altitude no missile was visible before the black puff of smoke, but by that point in its flight it would be coasting, and not leaving a smoke trail. What is difficult to understand is why none of the four aircraft, or an A-50 AMACS, or any of the Russian ground based AA radar picked up the incoming missiles, whatever type they were. https://southfront.org/breaking-two-russian-aircraft-shot-down-over-bryansk-region-video/
" Latest greatest F-35 can't operate safely without ECW".
F-22 is superior jet than F-35.
US would not give Ukr f22, ever, simple, what don't you understand. Anyways it wasn't a US fighter 👻🛩️🎈that took it out ffs, pointless to debate.
For the F-22 to fire missiles, it would have to use its radar. Someone would detect the unique signal. Maybe it did not play a factor in this engagement, but it would alert the Russians that F-22s are in play.
Air to air doesn't do that kind of damage. That was from a big SAM system with proximity war heads. Either S-300 or Patrriot PAC2.
Besides the evidence provided by damage and range, an F-22 would have a high probability of being detected in that sector.
If so, it's not something that can be consistently done. Serbians knocked down an F-117 back in the nineties, huge embarrassment if a F-22 fell in Ukraine.
The Russians develop a package and tactics that allow them to deliver larger munitions while keeping their assets safe. After a few weeks or months, the enemy comes up with a counter tactic.
Perhaps it might only be a one off ambush, but enough to cause the cautious Russians to pause their efforts which were obviously bearing fruit.
Sadly, this is the nature of war. It's not a video game, that you can press reset and start a new game. Maybe the important lesson is that Russia was hurting Ukraine, so they must redouble their efforts. Learn all they can about what when wrong. Standup 3 new, improved, units to take the place of the one that has fallen and double the number of bombs dropped in support of defeating the West.
I would just forget the PR, and just get thousands of Ballistic rockets from Iran and North Korea. I'm sure both countries would be eager for a trade in tech with Russia, and to see how their main deterrence force fairs in a total war scenario against Western weapons.
Yep it's a natural cycle. Russia has recently stepped up air attacks A LOT because of: 1. the attrition of Ukrainian AD and 2. the introduction of new gliding bombs. However, Ukraine figured out a way to bait them into a trap this time. It's a constant cycle of adaptation of both sides.
And carefully timed to force an operational pause by Russian air, just when Ukraine needs it most...
You know the idea of having a war of attrition so far makes sense, I mean I get it.
But you know I’m thinking Russia needs to change it up.
And it’s about time to wrap it up in Ukraine.
Russia is gonna mess around and fool around until the West has enough time to set up something really ugly.
Finish this Bakhmut and get Prigozhin outta there.
Prigozhin 'cinema( should not be tolerated) he must go and asap. Give him some rest and only an admin task, take care of African contracts (f e),and shut up.And any army in the World he would already be in jail or executed.
About Russia it is about time to declare war not only on 404 which is 100 % NATO thing now but time to REALLY retaliate by giving them ''costs'' in military, infras, humans etc..on Nato borders states (Poland, Romania as a starter), UK troops for exemple, weapons, command centers, airfields. It may look crazy ( it would be in normal times), but the only thing which is important for nato politicos leaders is their money, their wealth, their confort. After a de facto declaration of war, stocks will collapse, trillions will be wiped out very quickly, people in nato countries will be scared to death,body bags will be impossible to hide, rich people will fly away to safe places like Southern Hemisphere, their economy will collapse, energy prices will again skyrocket, millions Eastern EU people will search refuge in 'safer' Western Europe countries etc..they will capitulate much faster than ukies(they will never do),as total panic will take place at least in Europe + UK It is still a bit early for this plan to be activated but I hope the head of the SVR- GRU can convince VVP that this will soon be the only joker left in Russian hands (out of nukes and MAD). Military situation on this or that place (like the Bakhmut 'idée fixe') is not important, ony the big picture and the determination of your adversary NATO ( 404 is not the real adversary just one tool). Russia must give NATO ( mainly UK tories clowns in London) a final ultimatum otherwise anything in the air (awacs, drones, fighters etc..) or under sea near 404 even in international air routes or water, will be shot down or sink as a starter. It can be done via Embassies. Then expel all journos + diplomats from Russia, terminate diplo relations untill the end of the war, stop any RU deliveries (energy, wheats, fertilizers, gold, diamonds etc) to unfriendly states even if it generates temporary losses. In a total war this is mandatory. Relations will continue with 85 % of the World.Russia can survive years in almost Autarky, this is absolutely NOT their case(at least in the EU + UK), US, Canada are +- ok as they have energy and still some decent industry.
Kanada is screwed, oil oil everywhere, not a fn drop to sell. Deutschland came here to buy LNG for winter, Turdeau offered Hydrogen gas instead, but only in 2 years because it doesn't exist yet...
Father Trudeau wanted already in 1976 to devellop near Montreal second airport Mirabel YMX(now a cargo one), a big Hydrogen industry but it never materialized.
The West is not as united as it seems. There will be a point where Europe opts out of this conflict.
Hopefully France first. I say that as an American with French ancestry.
Another 'simple' explanation could be good ol' complacency ... "we're operating over friendly territory" ... "we've run this operation a dozen times in the last week with not a single siting of enemy threats" ... "I could fly this mission in my sleep" ...
If the group's security depends on a high degree of precision then any slack off in operational procedures by one (or multiple) of the units could spell doom for the entire group if the enemy is able to capitalize on the error.
The VVS has flown hundreds (thousands?) of these types of sorties without (as far as we know) this level of losses; hopefully this will come down to a case of complacency and/or catastrophic equipment failure.
On the other hand, if this is a new AFU/NATO capability (or tactic) then we may see a few more of these losses before Russia adapts to the new threat. As others have commented ... "that's war".
This ambush could also be from multiple sources, after extensive intelligence gathering by western satellites and air systems they likely found a weak point, most likely a route that the Russian Air forces used on multiple occasions and set up a kill zone there. A mistake the US air force made over Vietnam, where they were sending their B52s on the same routes over and over, and then Vietnam just shot them down easily since on the way back they were defenceless. The Air Force had to be yelled at by the General or I think even the president to change tactics and stop using the same routes like they're migrating birds.
It was worse. Pres Johnson daily authorized the strikes at same times of day, like clockwork.
Wipe tm out those naps !!!!!!
If Russia ddoesot retaliate hard they will have a rough future!!!!
Nazis&NewCos do not forgive.
A captive senior officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured in the area of the Zaporozhye Front told an interesting version of the disappearance of Zaluzhny and Syrsky.
According to the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Zelensky is conducting an internal investigation into suspicions of Zaluzhny and Syrsky in a military coup and seizure of power. In this regard, both are temporarily in informational and physical isolation, but within the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
⚠️#Ukraine - In Pavlograd and Khmelnytsky, #NATO had set up giant ammunition depots, available to the Kiev entity, which were pulverized by strikes🇷🇺
What deplored Yuri Kasyanov, former adviser to Petro Poroshenko and well-known Ukronazi propagandist...
🇷🇺Of the 300,000 reservists mobilized at the end of last year, 150,000 are still on training grounds in Western #Russia.
Ukrainian troops have only 3 weeks of training, Russians have 6 months...
▶️Possible offensive towards Belgorod in preparation with intent to break into Fed territory. from #Russia from 15 to 20 km
➡️Accumulation of troops and equipment in this area since April 10
▪️Several units🇺🇦 withdrawn from the front to be reinforced and supplemented for this purpose, such as the 67th mechanized brigade of the Pravy Sektor (ex DUK)
▪️20,000 regular soldiers & 10,000 members of the territorial defense awaiting commitment
Source: https://twitter.com/JacquesFrre2
A former French military, reporting on Donbass since 2014, very accurate
Yes there was some strange rumor/theory floating around that something is 'about to happen to Zelensky' (like coup? etc?) by "July" or this summer. Of course I give it very low confidence standard rumor mill b.s., but it's worth mentioning and keeping an eye on just in case.
Strange that ZE left 404 the day of the Kremlin strike for a very organized European 'tour' with multiple stops(today in Rome Meloni US agent + even the Pope).He is following his tour in Germany Monday where he will get another 2.7 billions package, then Macron...but when will he be back?This all show is no coincidence with the escalation, counter offensive; terror acts, direct strikes in Russia mainland and both generals or in temporary 'jail'(if true maybe a total control of Kiev by US + SAS forces to avoid a coup,when ZE is out for so many days/weeks)?Too many coincidences on this timeline till today, and I expect even much worse soon as they now declared total war on Russia not only in 404 but in Russia. In Minsk 'Luka' has not been seen since Moscow parade, he is sick, rumors of preparation (in Poland) of a colour rev in Minsk or a coup.
If we add Turkey elections today and also rumors of a coup if Erdogan wins( unlikely according to surveys, but the advance of the pro Nato candidate is now at only 50.7 and as in Turkey elections are always rigged everyting is possible, as many pro Erdogan voters are expats (5 millions), they are not accounted in surveys. We will see. One thing is sure the West is going for broke, they are now in full 'neocons double down' mode, this the fight of their entire life. I'm afraid they could even try a desperate catastrophic thing(anglos) like a first strike as they are all convinced now (due to all RU red lines crossed never any reaction) that: 1) Putin will not dare to retaliate 2) RU nukes don't even work(very frequent such idiotic statements are made by multiple US UK EU officials on twitter) 3) They are sure Russian version of ''Yats is our guy'' is already awaiting in Moscow with 5th and 6th columns help.
The victory is now even more existential for the West as their all 'rules based order including dollar' is in real danger for the first time ever.Even Japan (vassal) is selling US t bonds like China and many other countries, dedolarization is happening much faster than once expected, they know the only thing to stop this is to destroy Russia by any mean now, as if they win, forget about SCo, brics +, Syria peace, Iran Saudis peace, even India + China will capitulate and will pay a heavy price because they 'dared' to support Russia. It is all of nothing for both sides.
Zelensky, a Jew, sent thousands of Azov (Nazis) of to die. Somebody is going to be blamed for getting Ukraine smashed, and it's not going to be ethnic Ukrainians.
Strange, indeed. Like with the Moskwa. What about sabotage? Some mechanics at the airfield placing bombs?