Much of the Ukrainian conflict has its closest comparison in the Normandy campaign of World War 2, just after the famed D-Day landings. The Normandy region is known as ‘hedgerow country’, populated with an endless sprawl of fields and pastures called
Its quite remarkable just how effective modern ATGM's are. I remember when I first heard about them was in 2006 when Hezbollah was destroying supposedly indestructible Merkavas, and then when IS started taking out Leo-2's in Turkey (although the Leo doesn't have the same "indestructible" reputation)
For a long time, the armor-myth of tanks like the Abrams and Challenger reigned supreme, to the point that tankers more or less thought themselves as impervious to harm. Yes, they could throw a track or have their optics knocked out, but nothing life threatening
Contrast that to now, where what appears to be a very small amount of ordnance - a few kg in a missile, or drone - is able to have an outsized effect on neutralizing armor. So now, modern militaries either have to come up with a way to really defend against them, or treat armor as semi-disposable.
Looking at Avdeevka, in retrospect its impressive the RuAF is attacking the way it is. I tried to imagine what NATO would do in the same scenario and I can't imagine they would even think about making an advance like this before a full year of round the clock aerial bombardment. The losses in this case are expected.
One question: Is the guy of the "Military Summary" youtube channel, his name is Dima, one of those Wagner fan boys that overly criticizes / puts down the Russian military?
I'm curious what the Ukrainian line looks like north west of the slag heap. The northern pincer is the most exposed line of attack for RF. The farther west it goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a southeastern push from UK towards the slag.
Oct 22, 2023·edited Oct 22, 2023Liked by Simplicius
The US would just drop Agent Orange to defoliate the shrubbery. But Russia is a moral nation and won't do that. If only Putin was as evil as Biden, this war would already be over. It continues to amaze me that the Ukrainians don't realize they are fighting a US Proxy war to the last drop of Ukrainian blood - and the US doesn't care how many die. It's all a geopolitical game to Washington, which is now calling the war a "good investment." How ugly.
It's a grind for sure, only way out of this is for the Russkies to think "out of the box"
I thought the tunneling (mines) was ingenious and harks back to WW1 tactics again. Except they were packed with hi-explosive and detonated. Both sides were terrified of tunneling.
Davaj, davaj ,Vozhak Z. slowly but surely grind toward victory . That idea of digging tunnels is just brilliant . Hard work is good for the soldiers , relieve tendencies toward depression , plus getting colder keeps the body warm . They will sleep better , and they can pop out on unexpected places for less costly attacks . Never mind the ISR. it is all about the spirit , that will decide .
"reports from Ukrainian channels that Russian forces are now “digging tunnels” toward Ukrainian positions on Avdeevka so as to bypass certain heavily fortified zones and “pop out” in surprise."
For many months, I have been posting on this website and others the fact that there is a subterranean world that is being neglected. The Vietcong, Hezbollah , Iran and Hamas have been using it for decades. Where do you think Iran hides its huge rockets?
The Donbas is littered with abandoned mine workings. Hundreds of kilometres of underground highways to those who are familiar with them. They have a population that has been mining in this region since the 19th century. All they need is an improvement in their technologies. Digging tunnels today is far easier than was the case only 20 years ago. Now, there are remote-controlled mining machines that operate in smaller confines.
In WW1, in a few months, Welsh miners dug a series of tunnels under German fortifications. They were simultaneously blown up. The Germans lost 10,000 soldiers in a few minutes. The fortifications at Avdiivka are vulnerable to this sort of attack.
Another technique is horizontal drilling. These drilling rigs are much simpler than the rigs used for drilling for oil and gas at depth. They are compact and can be placed down a mine shaft. They can bore a hole 50+ km in length. They are designed so that their location can be fixed to less than one meter. They are designed to be able to place instruments or special tools at the end of the hole.
I am constantly shocked by how primitive both sides are in this war. Flying drones have existed for decades. But it is only in the past year that design and production has been ramped up.
How about land drones? No one seems to have developed such things. Why not? A simple petrol-engined 4WD 250CC "go kart" can carry a bomb weighing 50kg and travel cross-country at 40km/hr. An overhead drone can relay its signals. It can wait in ambush with the engine turned off. When a suitable target is discovered, it can be restarted and aimed at the target. No tank can survive such an explosion under its hull. These things can operate in swarms and cross mine fields. If a few get blown up, so what? They cost $1000 each. I read that each Russian shell costs "only" $600. Western shells cost 10 times more.
Sorry for this rant. I am just so fed up with the incompetence.
Naive question but where do all the supplies come in to Avdeevka. Can't they simply bomb the supply terminals using aviation (Rail, Road MSR) and repeat after repair.
I hope your read is right - it's plausible. Frankly I doubt Gerasimov would put Avdeevka at the top of the list of targets. It's heavily fortified and the biggest obvious advantage would be to get AFU guns out of range of Donetsk - no small thing. But ideally I'd guess the Russian command would rather be working on the north or trying to eliminate the Ukrainian salient gained in their "offensive" in the south - that would not look good in Kiev or Washington. That said, it does look as though Ukraine is making Avdeekva a very valuable target. Zelensky has gone to cheer up the troops - so has Zaluzhny. If Ukraine makes this a test of wills it becomes a very good area to "grind down" the AFU - they're not very good at retreating. If the casualty ratio is in favor of RF forces, we should start to see more prisoners - and that would be very good. Russia may have a real opportunity here.
I've studied military history for a living for a very long time. There aren't many generalizations to make - but I'd say 500 years of European warfare has shown that even if you win, fighting Russia will get you maimed. And sometimes it gets you obliterated. There's a corollary here - Eastern Europeans are all a little crazy - the Poles are crazy, the Russians are crazy and the Ukrainians are crazy. We must not forget that Russians are fighting Ukrainians and Ukrainians are very tough and will take some real convincing to quit. My guess is that the Russian leaders know this better than anyone and that if they could somehow shake Ukrainian will, Moscow would be willing to "cut a deal" - and a pretty generous one as long as neutrality is included. I hope so - this war remains very dangerous and the world doesn't need more danger.
June 6th 1944..or it's what I learned sir
Maybe a typo?
If I may.. I saw a video of one leopard going really fireball... Is that normal or what got it?
Thanks
If you can’t get past historical dates correct. What does that say about your current forecasts
Once the allies landed on the Normandy beaches on D-Day, June 4, 1944, their next task was to slowly expand the beachhead
Do you know something that all the history books don’t
Its quite remarkable just how effective modern ATGM's are. I remember when I first heard about them was in 2006 when Hezbollah was destroying supposedly indestructible Merkavas, and then when IS started taking out Leo-2's in Turkey (although the Leo doesn't have the same "indestructible" reputation)
For a long time, the armor-myth of tanks like the Abrams and Challenger reigned supreme, to the point that tankers more or less thought themselves as impervious to harm. Yes, they could throw a track or have their optics knocked out, but nothing life threatening
Contrast that to now, where what appears to be a very small amount of ordnance - a few kg in a missile, or drone - is able to have an outsized effect on neutralizing armor. So now, modern militaries either have to come up with a way to really defend against them, or treat armor as semi-disposable.
Looking at Avdeevka, in retrospect its impressive the RuAF is attacking the way it is. I tried to imagine what NATO would do in the same scenario and I can't imagine they would even think about making an advance like this before a full year of round the clock aerial bombardment. The losses in this case are expected.
Great report, thank you.
One question: Is the guy of the "Military Summary" youtube channel, his name is Dima, one of those Wagner fan boys that overly criticizes / puts down the Russian military?
Considering there are no civilians in the coke plant why wouldn't dropping FABs be an option?
I'm curious what the Ukrainian line looks like north west of the slag heap. The northern pincer is the most exposed line of attack for RF. The farther west it goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a southeastern push from UK towards the slag.
The US would just drop Agent Orange to defoliate the shrubbery. But Russia is a moral nation and won't do that. If only Putin was as evil as Biden, this war would already be over. It continues to amaze me that the Ukrainians don't realize they are fighting a US Proxy war to the last drop of Ukrainian blood - and the US doesn't care how many die. It's all a geopolitical game to Washington, which is now calling the war a "good investment." How ugly.
excellent. And educational for me.
It's a grind for sure, only way out of this is for the Russkies to think "out of the box"
I thought the tunneling (mines) was ingenious and harks back to WW1 tactics again. Except they were packed with hi-explosive and detonated. Both sides were terrified of tunneling.
The Messines ridge was permanently altered!
Davaj, davaj ,Vozhak Z. slowly but surely grind toward victory . That idea of digging tunnels is just brilliant . Hard work is good for the soldiers , relieve tendencies toward depression , plus getting colder keeps the body warm . They will sleep better , and they can pop out on unexpected places for less costly attacks . Never mind the ISR. it is all about the spirit , that will decide .
Ukraine's desperate optics/propaganda will probably get worse now that Bibi has moved to the top of the queue.
"reports from Ukrainian channels that Russian forces are now “digging tunnels” toward Ukrainian positions on Avdeevka so as to bypass certain heavily fortified zones and “pop out” in surprise."
For many months, I have been posting on this website and others the fact that there is a subterranean world that is being neglected. The Vietcong, Hezbollah , Iran and Hamas have been using it for decades. Where do you think Iran hides its huge rockets?
The Donbas is littered with abandoned mine workings. Hundreds of kilometres of underground highways to those who are familiar with them. They have a population that has been mining in this region since the 19th century. All they need is an improvement in their technologies. Digging tunnels today is far easier than was the case only 20 years ago. Now, there are remote-controlled mining machines that operate in smaller confines.
In WW1, in a few months, Welsh miners dug a series of tunnels under German fortifications. They were simultaneously blown up. The Germans lost 10,000 soldiers in a few minutes. The fortifications at Avdiivka are vulnerable to this sort of attack.
Another technique is horizontal drilling. These drilling rigs are much simpler than the rigs used for drilling for oil and gas at depth. They are compact and can be placed down a mine shaft. They can bore a hole 50+ km in length. They are designed so that their location can be fixed to less than one meter. They are designed to be able to place instruments or special tools at the end of the hole.
I am constantly shocked by how primitive both sides are in this war. Flying drones have existed for decades. But it is only in the past year that design and production has been ramped up.
How about land drones? No one seems to have developed such things. Why not? A simple petrol-engined 4WD 250CC "go kart" can carry a bomb weighing 50kg and travel cross-country at 40km/hr. An overhead drone can relay its signals. It can wait in ambush with the engine turned off. When a suitable target is discovered, it can be restarted and aimed at the target. No tank can survive such an explosion under its hull. These things can operate in swarms and cross mine fields. If a few get blown up, so what? They cost $1000 each. I read that each Russian shell costs "only" $600. Western shells cost 10 times more.
Sorry for this rant. I am just so fed up with the incompetence.
Naive question but where do all the supplies come in to Avdeevka. Can't they simply bomb the supply terminals using aviation (Rail, Road MSR) and repeat after repair.
Good question. But what does that say about your ability when notified, to properly correct a typo.
I hope your read is right - it's plausible. Frankly I doubt Gerasimov would put Avdeevka at the top of the list of targets. It's heavily fortified and the biggest obvious advantage would be to get AFU guns out of range of Donetsk - no small thing. But ideally I'd guess the Russian command would rather be working on the north or trying to eliminate the Ukrainian salient gained in their "offensive" in the south - that would not look good in Kiev or Washington. That said, it does look as though Ukraine is making Avdeekva a very valuable target. Zelensky has gone to cheer up the troops - so has Zaluzhny. If Ukraine makes this a test of wills it becomes a very good area to "grind down" the AFU - they're not very good at retreating. If the casualty ratio is in favor of RF forces, we should start to see more prisoners - and that would be very good. Russia may have a real opportunity here.
I've studied military history for a living for a very long time. There aren't many generalizations to make - but I'd say 500 years of European warfare has shown that even if you win, fighting Russia will get you maimed. And sometimes it gets you obliterated. There's a corollary here - Eastern Europeans are all a little crazy - the Poles are crazy, the Russians are crazy and the Ukrainians are crazy. We must not forget that Russians are fighting Ukrainians and Ukrainians are very tough and will take some real convincing to quit. My guess is that the Russian leaders know this better than anyone and that if they could somehow shake Ukrainian will, Moscow would be willing to "cut a deal" - and a pretty generous one as long as neutrality is included. I hope so - this war remains very dangerous and the world doesn't need more danger.