420 Comments
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Removed (Banned)Jun 10, 2023
Comment removed
Expand full comment

This is definitely NOT Kursk 2.0.

Expand full comment

I was uncouth and liked your post before I read it. I was like a teenager realising that my History teacher was hot. I just had to give you kudos for the catchy title :)

Expand full comment

Thing are tough for Ukraine, but not for the stock market. If this is part of the economic c war when does will Street get it? Gas prices, interest rates or ? This is multidimensional and a win must affect the global trade dollar balance to be successful. Gates and Microsoft must fall

Expand full comment

I'd be shocked if NATO trained AFU on COIN. Especially since the US is well versed in complete superiority, their history with Air Land Battle, etc. I think this is more Ukraine has no choice, they have to symbolically sacrifice. 1. To send the message they aren't done yet, and 2. humiliate their western backers for providing a paltry amount of material (in respect to what is needed for a real offensive).

Expand full comment

Really informative and fantastic write up, thank you!

Expand full comment

Maybe Zelensky wants these failures so that he can push for the F-15/6s to heat up the conflict more, and that might please Biden and the profiteers.

Expand full comment

As someone who has a family member who is one of the mobilised on the Russian side and very close to that area; Simplicius, you couldn’t be any more correct if you tried.

Expand full comment

We in the US are ruled by -- bandits !!

Expand full comment

Well, it seems the Russians have been doing some sandbagging. I'm not a war strategist and know very little about it but it seems the Russian Offensive has come to fruition. Looking at these pics makes me gulp though I am not sure why exactly. I have been patiently waiting for the Russians to fire off with left hooks and right crosses that would devastate Ukraine. I have no ill will towards the Ukies but have ZERO fucks to give for US/EU/NATO Leadership. Since this started I have been waiting for the day when Western media and their little fancy pants NAFO trolls would eat their words.

I don't know if we are there yet but it feels like it might be close. Simplicius thinking you have got to feel somewhat fulfilled. I don't know what other word(s) to say or use so will leave it at that. You and others with similar blogs work hard. The amount of propaganda from the West since this officially kicked off ousted Covid as the number one psyop of all time. This is huge and frankly the best thing that could happen to spare Ukrainian and Russian lives. Men who should be fighting as one instead of each other. There has got to be a lot of humiliation circling about. I don't know from war perspective but from a street fight view I can tell you this kind of humiliating defeat can stop escalation.....or it can lead to desperation. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Expand full comment

I still haven't seen a causal theory starting with "explosion at the Kakhovka dam" and ending with "left-bank strip flooded". Explosion is not causal to the strip flooding, but the reverse is true. Or more exactly, they have a common cause: deliberate overflowing of the dam by Ukrainians.

I also belatedly noticed that in Theia dataset, the water levels for Dniepro upstream of Lake Kakhovka only go up to 2023-03-30. Hmm.. that's... suspicious. Personally, I think this is indicative (maybe even proof) that the French Theia is "in", it's part of the conspiracy. Which in turn basically proves the idea of overflowing the dam wasn't dreamt up by Ukrainians, or at the very least it wasn't decided on by them. Because how is Ukraine going to convice a foreign scientific institution to scrub a CRITICAL dataset? US, on the other hand, CAN do both.

But hey, at least they forgot (?) to scrub the water levels for Dniepro downstream of Lake Kakhovka. ;)

At any rate, it seems the initial flooding (from 2023-02-01 to 2023-04-01) was sourced from Dnieper Reservoir, and possibly some smaller ones (I didn't check if Krivoy Rog is connected to Lake Kakhovka) and the flooding afterwards was sourced from Kamianske Reservoir and possibly from Kyiv Reservoir. The exact details are contingent on information on the flow through sections of Dniepro and as I mentioned, that data has been scrubbed. Kremenchutska Reservoir is full as of this writing, AND has a surface area larger than Kakhovka Reservoir... which means there's just SO much damage it can commit. Maybe they'll even be able to cut an erosion channel into the left-bank strip and bypass the main body of the dam that way. They MIGHT even be able to mostly or completely drain Lake Kakhovka! Remains to be seen.

Expand full comment
Jun 10, 2023·edited Jun 10, 2023

Prior to the offensive, I predicted they would be massacred *after* they outran their air support...but gotdam they went and done it without any....

Expand full comment

Maybe the MIC wanted a grand destruction of equipment. What better way to get massive government spending on developing new weapons

Expand full comment

Who is that dork in the video talking about liberating? Who's he saying lied? I didnt understand the the dude, clip or what it had to do with this sitrep. English...spawned the language but I can't understand most of them except that dude in Lucifer series.

Expand full comment

Quick comment: from watching the Ka videos I was wondering: in a column of armored vehicles, which one should you hit?

You answered that question

Expand full comment