This may be true for an official "probe" of a reconaissance-by-fire mission, but unfortunately for AFU these missions of past few days are no longer recon but are full assaults. I know on Twitter and such people are calling them 'probes' as a joke because it's become a sort of meme. But they are full blown assaults and the previous 'probes' did not reveal all the Russian positions which means AFU's fires brigades are still going to have to heavily coordinate by way of complex communications, signals, drones, etc., with the advancing elements in order to stand a chance at suppressing Russian defenses. If the AFU simply 'retreated' every single time someone hit a mine then they would literally never "liberate their country" and gain anymore territory whatsoever because all Russian defense lines will be saturated with mines.
If this was NATO/U.S. they wouldn't have to do such a suicidal assault because they would rely on heavy aerial support by way of mass aerial campaigns for as long as it takes (weeks/months) before they would even allow their ground units to advance into such contested zones. But Ukraine doesn't have that luxury so in order to get tangible results on a very strict timetable / deadline, they have no choice but to advance and hope Russia is "as stupid" as the West made them out to be in their propaganda.
Also another point to be made is that, while we're laughing at how big of a failure it appears to be, we should be circumspect as the place where those AFU armor groups got destroyed may not be as "far back" in their lines as we think. The fact that Russians made a video which I posted showing their troops next to the destroyed Bradley/Leopards appears to indicate the AFU units actually advanced quite far up to Russian forward screening lines, so the assault while optically a failure may have been more 'successful' than we think in pushing back the lines. And this appears to be confirmed by some of today's news that Ukraine did take some territory and possibly pushed the line back at least slightly (though still disproportionate to their overall losses).
That is an interesting point (NATO spending weeks/months Air bombing before putting boots in the ground, a la Desert Storm or Allied Force in Yugoslavia). Seeing how fearsome Russian AD is (arguably best SAM systems in the world, layered capabilities, tremendous EW capability), I cannot see the success of Desert Storm repeating again. Hope we witness such an scenario only on a video Game or serios study level simulator (Command: Modern Operations comes to mind).
My thoughts exactly.. NATO air resources wouldn't hold out "for months " against Russian anti air and layered air defense and air superiority maneuvering from deep inside Eurasia . .Keeping in mind that once those resources are gone, all of Europe would be in the same position the Ukrainians are in right now, and then we would then be treated to some profound revelations of truthful score keeping from European politician .... or probably long before then.
how would you define the difference?? To Russians this is Kursk, not from military perspective - from political one.
- just as 80 years ago 'fascists' attacked.
- back then it was entire Euroreich with their hiwi (Hilfswilliger) ukro-nazi puppets , now it is supposedly same ukro-nazi puppets with euroreich 'support'.
- back then it was german, spanish, italian, hungarian troops. even french SS division, Dutch SS battalions fighting Russia on its home turf, same thing now , they are just called 'volunteers'.
- same ideology (bandera shit), same leadership
- same crosses on armor, same swastikas
- same goal , genocide of russian/soviet people
how is this attack by euroreich/brit/american fascists and their Ukrainian puppets different? To a russian mind, it isnt.. and it will end the same way, with total destruction of the enemy. RU public opinion does not understand the whole 'negotiations' and it is something Putin would have to push through using his enormous gravitas to allow RU society to accept it. Can you image Stalin in 1943 saying that Soviet Union needs to negotiate with rechkomissariat ukraine , an illegal entity installed by occupying force ??
I was uncouth and liked your post before I read it. I was like a teenager realising that my History teacher was hot. I just had to give you kudos for the catchy title :)
1. If military demining equipment is useless in modern war, then human rights loving nations should send them to Cambodia. Moral people make logical decisions, hey?
2. Just like some dude said something famous when he stepped on the moon, this war is the giant step towards armoured vehicles and troops becoming history, and drones becoming the only future. Damn scary. That makes chips in Taiwan, not the cheese and onion kind, excessively important.
3. Wait, I didn't understand that bit about Biden losing his reputation. I must have missed the first episode where he got one.
4. Knowing their precarious position, why didn't the Ukrainians throw everything they've got? The losses would have been huge but they've never cared about that before, and they would have gotten results to show to NATO's coffee gathering.
Armor has still been important in this war, it just needs to adapt (and has in some ways) to the new realities. Plenty of footage of small groups or even single armored vehicles offering effective support to infantry assault or otherwise proving medium range fire.
As for drones, the thing is that drone technology has advanced much faster than anyone in any military excepted, thus the lack of anti-drone weapons and other countermeasures in sufficient quantities.
I doubt that will be the case in a couple of years now that everyone understands how useful/dangerous small drones can be. Of course drones will be improved as well, so we'll have to see.
Drones are cheap... The Russians (who are supposedly technologically backwards) have clearly made great use of them. Shouldn't the Ukrainians have an unlimited supply of at least second tier drones from the US military? Why aren't they using them or why don't they have them? The US defense department was supposed to be the leader in this field. I'm not saying they haven't been used at all or to any effect... they have... but that this should be the equalizer with Russia. No? Or is the USA relying on China to mass produce them and the Ukrainians are just running out of supply because the US hollowed out its industrial base? China refused to produce the goods against its partner? This doesn't really make any sense. Or is technologically backward Russia so good at air defense and electronic warfare they have neutralized what should be an advantage for Ukraine... they just can't get the same effect as Russia is getting with drones?
The small drones are mostly commercial ones adapted for military use.
Neither militaries (nor the US military) have apparently considered such mass use of small drones so no one has mass production besides commercial producers mostly in China.
This means that both can buy whatever they can afford/supply (with a lot of work being done by volunteers instead of military supply chains).
At the beginning Ukraine had much more of those, but now it seems fairly even. I don't necessarily think Russia has more or better drones, but that they are capable of inflicting much more losses on enemy drones due to EW.
Maybe there's a video of him receiving a golden shower from Prince Andrew in the Queen's bed beneath a photo of the wonderful Lady Di. Don't think anything else will work.
There's pride in politics for being the best liar. Biden was protected by being a stereotype. Trump was plain dumb in his handling of lies. Different optics, for sure, but Bush, Biden, Clinton and Trump are all products of the same ego empire. As soon as they declare candidacy for President in the name of God, the Flag, Democracy and loving family, we know they're just another rapper or boxer.
It's the resultant action against others that determines character more than what they say about themselves or what television tells us.
You forgot to add Obama to that list of war criminals. He was probably the worst of all. Why? Because after the Iraq debacle and the Global Financial Crash he had a huge veto-proof Congress and a large eager majority supporting him. He could have changed the entire neo-liberal and neo-con direction of the country. Instead, he protected the war criminals, and the Wall Street banksters, then doubled down in Afghanistan, kept The Iraq war going and then waged war on Libya, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen, while becoming the drone assassin-in-chief. Oh yeah, he also oversaw the entirely fraudulent foreclosure wave that saw millions of families kicked out of their homes.
I was exampling. Many names deserve to be on a list. No American president is head of the country. They're actors performing for the corporates. Trump mostly performed for himself but still served the excessively rich. You're right about Obama. He's one of the worst because his fake gentlemanly behaviour is still being bought by half the country. That marketing scheme worked so well its like he's the second coming of Mandela. The real him is the devil who increased civilian deaths with drones.
Well Mike, you’ve made a lot of interesting comments, but, I hope you are as wrong about Trump as you are about a guy, saying something famous while taking his first step on the moon cause they never went to the moon
As an outsider, I don't choose a political side. American politics is a circus with insane clowns receiving applause from the mental asylum whilst sane people like Assange are locked up like animals by the real animals.
But even dirty Presidents have merits. I'm thankful for Trump's raging self-serving ego and Biden Jnr's drugs which have helped strip the democracy veneer off the autocracy.
The USA need to stop killing Ukrainians whilst pretending to save them. More beautiful Americans need to see and be horrified at the war machine their country is. They need to stop waving the flag.
The flag is the flag of the corporation of the United States ruled under the jurisdiction of maritime admiralty law …..people will stop waving it when they all wake up .. maybe when we get a whole bunch more tough South African men we can make that happen
We need a msn that starts predicating friendship and not look at other countries as being enemies. Russia and China are not enemies. They are only enemies in the eyes the greedy corporations and greedy people who want control of the minerals and rich resources of others. Lets start looking at the other countries, no matter what their political belief or religious creed is, but with a hand outstretched in friendship and not looking at them as enemies. The politicians are not the voice of the people, they are all in one way or other, corrupt. If countries started with their msn to educate their people to be friendly with their neighbor, the entire world would be a better place to live. in.
Thing are tough for Ukraine, but not for the stock market. If this is part of the economic c war when does will Street get it? Gas prices, interest rates or ? This is multidimensional and a win must affect the global trade dollar balance to be successful. Gates and Microsoft must fall
Fed interest rate rises are causing balance sheet havoc so I wouldn't be so sure about Wall Streets feelings - Blackrock's "investments" in Ukraine could cause further erosion in valuation. The sector based profits have to be set against some real numbers, so check out Shadow stats for those indices.
I’m thinking for some reason the techies don’t think their bottom lines will be impacted so maybe they will pick dumping Ukraine over nuclear war. As far as shadow stats go interest rates have been below inflation for years. For example Musk.
Elon in China, except no sign of snowy. Some people are waking up to the fact that disconnecting is having blowback best avoided. My understanding that the TSMC microprocessor plant isn't great and the Micron decision...not to mention China's progress with alternative chip designs and progress with lithography equipment... but there's no reasoning with neocons.
The point is, the war doesn't make economic sense. It isn't weakening Russia and if anything, Europe, Britain, and the US will go down the drain. This war is just one big gamble by the Pentagon.
Economic recessions in the West are almost always because consumer spending falls. And the prerequisite to that is reduced lending.
The reduced lending is already occurring - it is a countdown to when the recession appears. Only this time it will be accompanied by a massive wave of commercial real estate foreclosures - which in turn will make the hurting banking system even worse.
The normal response: cut interest rates and pump liquidity - is going to be problematic since inflation is still high.
So the question for Biden and the Federal Reserve: recession or inflation? Which is the lesser evil?
I'd be shocked if NATO trained AFU on COIN. Especially since the US is well versed in complete superiority, their history with Air Land Battle, etc. I think this is more Ukraine has no choice, they have to symbolically sacrifice. 1. To send the message they aren't done yet, and 2. humiliate their western backers for providing a paltry amount of material (in respect to what is needed for a real offensive).
Re COIN, the issue is not so much that NATO would deliberately train Ukrainian forces in it but since the only real experience of current NATO officers and NCOs is in COIN, and most of their equipment has been shaped by that, when those individuals provide training to others, the training is heavily reliant on the tactics and policies which have worked for them in COIN. NATO theories about large formation battle are now just theories, not experienced based, and while trainers may attempt to draw on the theories, which incidentally may be completely impractical, their own direct experience will unconsciously dominate in how they interpret those theories and in what they teach.
US doctrine in near-peer or peer conflict is entirely theoretical because it hasn’t done anything like that since at least Vietnam and probably Korea. Everything about the US military has been shaped by 30 years of low intensity conflict. DoD tried to close the tank factory in Lima because it was convinced the age of armor was over. Point being - and it’s a point made by Ukrainians - is that the US can’t really train Ukraine how to fight this war because it doesn’t actually know how to fight it. Its combined experience is in table top war games wherein it generally stacks the deck for itself. Would actual US forces do better than Ukrainian in these situations? Almost certainly, but not without losses, likely significant losses. That too is something the US military and political leadership no longer has any experience with.
As someone who has a family member who is one of the mobilised on the Russian side and very close to that area; Simplicius, you couldn’t be any more correct if you tried.
My husband American , i am Russian from black see origin from one side of the family and other side from Siberia. Born in USSR.My family generations( man)military- 5 generations. I left Donbas in 1997, because even that time they suppressed Russian language and anything has to do with Russia..btw, nobody spoke Ukrainian language( in my opinion it’s a joke, took me 2 weeks to pass exams in school). I can’t explain how in this regions Kharkov, Zaporojey, Donbas, Kremya, Odessa become Ukraine..it’s absurd. 84% of population in Kiev speaks Russian language! Let’s t
Sink that in...What is the deal? You need to bring “ independent” IMF and show to the “ cream de la cream” of top of the top and same time destroying social security of society. Easy, done before in many countries.. but please, do not f* with a Russian bear.. it may be slow in response but, when it’s awake it will go for the kill
Wars always start with man's inhumanity to man. They end when God stops satan after satan has spilled the blood of those who where stupid enough to listen to him. I hope they get the faggot piano player.
Well, it seems the Russians have been doing some sandbagging. I'm not a war strategist and know very little about it but it seems the Russian Offensive has come to fruition. Looking at these pics makes me gulp though I am not sure why exactly. I have been patiently waiting for the Russians to fire off with left hooks and right crosses that would devastate Ukraine. I have no ill will towards the Ukies but have ZERO fucks to give for US/EU/NATO Leadership. Since this started I have been waiting for the day when Western media and their little fancy pants NAFO trolls would eat their words.
I don't know if we are there yet but it feels like it might be close. Simplicius thinking you have got to feel somewhat fulfilled. I don't know what other word(s) to say or use so will leave it at that. You and others with similar blogs work hard. The amount of propaganda from the West since this officially kicked off ousted Covid as the number one psyop of all time. This is huge and frankly the best thing that could happen to spare Ukrainian and Russian lives. Men who should be fighting as one instead of each other. There has got to be a lot of humiliation circling about. I don't know from war perspective but from a street fight view I can tell you this kind of humiliating defeat can stop escalation.....or it can lead to desperation. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
well, RU commentators stated that RU military tells them that
- they can punch through any time (entire armored corps are waiting)
- it would involve losses higher than current, the longer you wait , the less losses RU will suffer
- once you punch through then what? fight Kharkov garrison house to house, 50 thousand strong in a middle of multi million city? Isn't much better to have forces in garrison come out to the open and throw themselves against total superiority (equipment, moral, firepower) of RU without having millions of civilians around??
in summary, RU only wants to move forward when they now that meatgrinders UA sets up for itself (its glorious offensive) are done. As long as UA is willing to waste hundreds/thousands of trained men per day by pushing them into the minefields, these are men RU will not have to fight block by block in big cities which are inevitably on the menu.
I am in georgia usa. I was unaware of the donbass situation until vlad did something to set off a hornets nest of hydra qabals. This reaction made me go to rumble to get info on donbass since rt was censored. Once i realized the truth, i tried to tell americans. Most refused to hear me.
I offered them peace and they rejected my words. Now much of donbass has been liberated. And the warmongers will get plenty of war. This time not from underdog limited armed militias.
That’s my story as well. When it officially kicked off I knew the army of media and trolls had to be directed. Shame on anyone who was not suspicious having just come through the Covid fiasco. In CFL. And yes the warmongers are going to get all that they bargained for or more. This is why the nuke option is so troubling IMO. These maniacs may turn to it as a last ditch option.
I still haven't seen a causal theory starting with "explosion at the Kakhovka dam" and ending with "left-bank strip flooded". Explosion is not causal to the strip flooding, but the reverse is true. Or more exactly, they have a common cause: deliberate overflowing of the dam by Ukrainians.
I also belatedly noticed that in Theia dataset, the water levels for Dniepro upstream of Lake Kakhovka only go up to 2023-03-30. Hmm.. that's... suspicious. Personally, I think this is indicative (maybe even proof) that the French Theia is "in", it's part of the conspiracy. Which in turn basically proves the idea of overflowing the dam wasn't dreamt up by Ukrainians, or at the very least it wasn't decided on by them. Because how is Ukraine going to convice a foreign scientific institution to scrub a CRITICAL dataset? US, on the other hand, CAN do both.
But hey, at least they forgot (?) to scrub the water levels for Dniepro downstream of Lake Kakhovka. ;)
At any rate, it seems the initial flooding (from 2023-02-01 to 2023-04-01) was sourced from Dnieper Reservoir, and possibly some smaller ones (I didn't check if Krivoy Rog is connected to Lake Kakhovka) and the flooding afterwards was sourced from Kamianske Reservoir and possibly from Kyiv Reservoir. The exact details are contingent on information on the flow through sections of Dniepro and as I mentioned, that data has been scrubbed. Kremenchutska Reservoir is full as of this writing, AND has a surface area larger than Kakhovka Reservoir... which means there's just SO much damage it can commit. Maybe they'll even be able to cut an erosion channel into the left-bank strip and bypass the main body of the dam that way. They MIGHT even be able to mostly or completely drain Lake Kakhovka! Remains to be seen.
It's from the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station the day after the dam failed. Which means that Ukraine was trying to exacerbate the flooding. For all intents and purposes that means (strongly implies, almost to the point of certainty) that they blew the Kakhovka dam in order to cause downstream flooding.
Satellite imagery from any number of satellites will show the white water beneath the Dnieper Reservoir so eventually the facts will come out. But for now, as far as I can tell, the news media hasn't touched the topic.
And at any rate, if collection was stopped in late April, then the data doesn't exist anywhere. Maybe the Chinese also have satellites of the same type and they kept collecting data? I'd need to hunt down their public datasets, if such exist.
HI! I'M FROM THE FUTURE! The missing dataset has been completely removed. But fear not! In their infinite wisdom, the maintainers of Theia have instituted a new virtual station just 3 km away from the old one. It has data from the relevant time period. Take a look: https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNEPR_DNIPRO_KM0430 It's obvious. :) Clear as daylight. :) They shifted water from upstream lakes down to Lake Kakhovka. :)
Guns vs butter, the classic choice of economics 101. Money printer go brrrr, and jobs exported, supply chains stretched, and sanctions galore. It's amazing how much expertise has simply retired, and then resource and energy constraints. So the expectation of profit may be constrained somewhat which leads me to wonder where these arms scammers sit on the risk curve (their butts are on the line) as "Blofeld" isn't happy.
Both military and civilian industry provides some kind of value and can ultimately be redirected to either purpose, however inefficient that might be.
It's a case of an increasingly large financial/service sector relying on a decreasingly small productive sector.
When can make way more money giving out loans than actually producing things, there's no reason to produce anything beyond that which allows you to give out those loans.
Who is that dork in the video talking about liberating? Who's he saying lied? I didnt understand the the dude, clip or what it had to do with this sitrep. English...spawned the language but I can't understand most of them except that dude in Lucifer series.
He's mentally handicapped. This guy is a mercenary who fought with Azov battalion and was captured in Azovstal last year but was released in a prisoner exchange by Russia after undergoing a lot of hilariously humiliating scenes like being forced to sing the Russian national anthem daily on video: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Pqm7vh363omg/
Now he's acting tough but he'll only get captured again eventually anyway. He used to fight for YPG in Syria, he's a real goober.
Sure i will exvhange him for gonzalo. Why would i not exchange him. He is demon possessed and we would get a patriot or ally back. Besides dont we have like thousands of these useless azov eaters
I don't know with certainly, but based on his accent and claims about execution vs exchange I'm guessing he was one of the US/UK guys that volunteered for Ukraine and got captured by the Donbass Republics.
When this started last year, Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. POWs from countries other than Ukraine were labeled as mercenaries by the Donbass Republics and sentenced to death. (There's a complicated amendment to the Geneva Convention that's excludes mercenaries from the POW rules)
When the oblasts were annexed to Russia the death penalty went away because Russian law doesn't allow for it. Also, the westerners were exchanged for some Russian POWs and it all became a moot point.
A British mercenary twat, Aiden Aslin, was captured, tried, sentenced, and released. And now has the cheek to come back and give the Russians the middle finger.
He won't get a second chance the next time he's captured.
BTW earlier, he was a merc with NATO's other pet proxy, the Kurds in Syria.
thanks. was not sure who it was. did it took an appear of some foreign official (Saudi's) to get western mercs released/traded? if true, I am sure Saudis will treat it as a slap in the face it is. And guy who GTFO area or as Ritter says it FAFO
If possible, a perfect ambush of a column would hit the front and rear vehicles at the same time. The mine clearer is always going to be a primary target
This may be true for an official "probe" of a reconaissance-by-fire mission, but unfortunately for AFU these missions of past few days are no longer recon but are full assaults. I know on Twitter and such people are calling them 'probes' as a joke because it's become a sort of meme. But they are full blown assaults and the previous 'probes' did not reveal all the Russian positions which means AFU's fires brigades are still going to have to heavily coordinate by way of complex communications, signals, drones, etc., with the advancing elements in order to stand a chance at suppressing Russian defenses. If the AFU simply 'retreated' every single time someone hit a mine then they would literally never "liberate their country" and gain anymore territory whatsoever because all Russian defense lines will be saturated with mines.
If this was NATO/U.S. they wouldn't have to do such a suicidal assault because they would rely on heavy aerial support by way of mass aerial campaigns for as long as it takes (weeks/months) before they would even allow their ground units to advance into such contested zones. But Ukraine doesn't have that luxury so in order to get tangible results on a very strict timetable / deadline, they have no choice but to advance and hope Russia is "as stupid" as the West made them out to be in their propaganda.
Also another point to be made is that, while we're laughing at how big of a failure it appears to be, we should be circumspect as the place where those AFU armor groups got destroyed may not be as "far back" in their lines as we think. The fact that Russians made a video which I posted showing their troops next to the destroyed Bradley/Leopards appears to indicate the AFU units actually advanced quite far up to Russian forward screening lines, so the assault while optically a failure may have been more 'successful' than we think in pushing back the lines. And this appears to be confirmed by some of today's news that Ukraine did take some territory and possibly pushed the line back at least slightly (though still disproportionate to their overall losses).
That is an interesting point (NATO spending weeks/months Air bombing before putting boots in the ground, a la Desert Storm or Allied Force in Yugoslavia). Seeing how fearsome Russian AD is (arguably best SAM systems in the world, layered capabilities, tremendous EW capability), I cannot see the success of Desert Storm repeating again. Hope we witness such an scenario only on a video Game or serios study level simulator (Command: Modern Operations comes to mind).
My thoughts exactly.. NATO air resources wouldn't hold out "for months " against Russian anti air and layered air defense and air superiority maneuvering from deep inside Eurasia . .Keeping in mind that once those resources are gone, all of Europe would be in the same position the Ukrainians are in right now, and then we would then be treated to some profound revelations of truthful score keeping from European politician .... or probably long before then.
Yeh, because Russia has Leopard 2s and Bradleys.
Thank you for filtering trolls.
This is definitely NOT Kursk 2.0.
Feels more like Klendathu assault in Starship Troopers
how would you define the difference?? To Russians this is Kursk, not from military perspective - from political one.
- just as 80 years ago 'fascists' attacked.
- back then it was entire Euroreich with their hiwi (Hilfswilliger) ukro-nazi puppets , now it is supposedly same ukro-nazi puppets with euroreich 'support'.
- back then it was german, spanish, italian, hungarian troops. even french SS division, Dutch SS battalions fighting Russia on its home turf, same thing now , they are just called 'volunteers'.
- same ideology (bandera shit), same leadership
- same crosses on armor, same swastikas
- same goal , genocide of russian/soviet people
how is this attack by euroreich/brit/american fascists and their Ukrainian puppets different? To a russian mind, it isnt.. and it will end the same way, with total destruction of the enemy. RU public opinion does not understand the whole 'negotiations' and it is something Putin would have to push through using his enormous gravitas to allow RU society to accept it. Can you image Stalin in 1943 saying that Soviet Union needs to negotiate with rechkomissariat ukraine , an illegal entity installed by occupying force ??
Good one!
More like the charge of the light brigade 2.0. They are charging Russian guns.
More like First Day of the Somme.
I was uncouth and liked your post before I read it. I was like a teenager realising that my History teacher was hot. I just had to give you kudos for the catchy title :)
1. If military demining equipment is useless in modern war, then human rights loving nations should send them to Cambodia. Moral people make logical decisions, hey?
2. Just like some dude said something famous when he stepped on the moon, this war is the giant step towards armoured vehicles and troops becoming history, and drones becoming the only future. Damn scary. That makes chips in Taiwan, not the cheese and onion kind, excessively important.
3. Wait, I didn't understand that bit about Biden losing his reputation. I must have missed the first episode where he got one.
4. Knowing their precarious position, why didn't the Ukrainians throw everything they've got? The losses would have been huge but they've never cared about that before, and they would have gotten results to show to NATO's coffee gathering.
Hard to see how armor becomes obsolete.
Armor has still been important in this war, it just needs to adapt (and has in some ways) to the new realities. Plenty of footage of small groups or even single armored vehicles offering effective support to infantry assault or otherwise proving medium range fire.
As for drones, the thing is that drone technology has advanced much faster than anyone in any military excepted, thus the lack of anti-drone weapons and other countermeasures in sufficient quantities.
I doubt that will be the case in a couple of years now that everyone understands how useful/dangerous small drones can be. Of course drones will be improved as well, so we'll have to see.
And drones need armour. Death will be delivered in smaller packages.
It took the Germans a while to stop using tanks en masse in Normandy, despite the mauling they got during Epsom. Facing facts isn't easy.
Drones are cheap... The Russians (who are supposedly technologically backwards) have clearly made great use of them. Shouldn't the Ukrainians have an unlimited supply of at least second tier drones from the US military? Why aren't they using them or why don't they have them? The US defense department was supposed to be the leader in this field. I'm not saying they haven't been used at all or to any effect... they have... but that this should be the equalizer with Russia. No? Or is the USA relying on China to mass produce them and the Ukrainians are just running out of supply because the US hollowed out its industrial base? China refused to produce the goods against its partner? This doesn't really make any sense. Or is technologically backward Russia so good at air defense and electronic warfare they have neutralized what should be an advantage for Ukraine... they just can't get the same effect as Russia is getting with drones?
The small drones are mostly commercial ones adapted for military use.
Neither militaries (nor the US military) have apparently considered such mass use of small drones so no one has mass production besides commercial producers mostly in China.
This means that both can buy whatever they can afford/supply (with a lot of work being done by volunteers instead of military supply chains).
At the beginning Ukraine had much more of those, but now it seems fairly even. I don't necessarily think Russia has more or better drones, but that they are capable of inflicting much more losses on enemy drones due to EW.
Russia and donbass created a hand held sci fi gun that hacks drones and makes em land.
Hahaha! Good one about Biden. What does it take to shame the shameless?
Maybe there's a video of him receiving a golden shower from Prince Andrew in the Queen's bed beneath a photo of the wonderful Lady Di. Don't think anything else will work.
There's pride in politics for being the best liar. Biden was protected by being a stereotype. Trump was plain dumb in his handling of lies. Different optics, for sure, but Bush, Biden, Clinton and Trump are all products of the same ego empire. As soon as they declare candidacy for President in the name of God, the Flag, Democracy and loving family, we know they're just another rapper or boxer.
It's the resultant action against others that determines character more than what they say about themselves or what television tells us.
You forgot to add Obama to that list of war criminals. He was probably the worst of all. Why? Because after the Iraq debacle and the Global Financial Crash he had a huge veto-proof Congress and a large eager majority supporting him. He could have changed the entire neo-liberal and neo-con direction of the country. Instead, he protected the war criminals, and the Wall Street banksters, then doubled down in Afghanistan, kept The Iraq war going and then waged war on Libya, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen, while becoming the drone assassin-in-chief. Oh yeah, he also oversaw the entirely fraudulent foreclosure wave that saw millions of families kicked out of their homes.
There’s no doubt in my mind, that Obama is leading the current Biden charade
I was exampling. Many names deserve to be on a list. No American president is head of the country. They're actors performing for the corporates. Trump mostly performed for himself but still served the excessively rich. You're right about Obama. He's one of the worst because his fake gentlemanly behaviour is still being bought by half the country. That marketing scheme worked so well its like he's the second coming of Mandela. The real him is the devil who increased civilian deaths with drones.
Well Mike, you’ve made a lot of interesting comments, but, I hope you are as wrong about Trump as you are about a guy, saying something famous while taking his first step on the moon cause they never went to the moon
As an outsider, I don't choose a political side. American politics is a circus with insane clowns receiving applause from the mental asylum whilst sane people like Assange are locked up like animals by the real animals.
But even dirty Presidents have merits. I'm thankful for Trump's raging self-serving ego and Biden Jnr's drugs which have helped strip the democracy veneer off the autocracy.
The USA need to stop killing Ukrainians whilst pretending to save them. More beautiful Americans need to see and be horrified at the war machine their country is. They need to stop waving the flag.
The flag is the flag of the corporation of the United States ruled under the jurisdiction of maritime admiralty law …..people will stop waving it when they all wake up .. maybe when we get a whole bunch more tough South African men we can make that happen
We need a msn that starts predicating friendship and not look at other countries as being enemies. Russia and China are not enemies. They are only enemies in the eyes the greedy corporations and greedy people who want control of the minerals and rich resources of others. Lets start looking at the other countries, no matter what their political belief or religious creed is, but with a hand outstretched in friendship and not looking at them as enemies. The politicians are not the voice of the people, they are all in one way or other, corrupt. If countries started with their msn to educate their people to be friendly with their neighbor, the entire world would be a better place to live. in.
Wait until u realize apollo wasfaked
We knew a long time ago.
Thing are tough for Ukraine, but not for the stock market. If this is part of the economic c war when does will Street get it? Gas prices, interest rates or ? This is multidimensional and a win must affect the global trade dollar balance to be successful. Gates and Microsoft must fall
Fed interest rate rises are causing balance sheet havoc so I wouldn't be so sure about Wall Streets feelings - Blackrock's "investments" in Ukraine could cause further erosion in valuation. The sector based profits have to be set against some real numbers, so check out Shadow stats for those indices.
I’m thinking for some reason the techies don’t think their bottom lines will be impacted so maybe they will pick dumping Ukraine over nuclear war. As far as shadow stats go interest rates have been below inflation for years. For example Musk.
Elon in China, except no sign of snowy. Some people are waking up to the fact that disconnecting is having blowback best avoided. My understanding that the TSMC microprocessor plant isn't great and the Micron decision...not to mention China's progress with alternative chip designs and progress with lithography equipment... but there's no reasoning with neocons.
The point is, the war doesn't make economic sense. It isn't weakening Russia and if anything, Europe, Britain, and the US will go down the drain. This war is just one big gamble by the Pentagon.
It's more of a big gamble by the neocons to maintain US exceptionalism as I don't see that the Pentagon is the driver of this coming trainwreck.
Economic recessions in the West are almost always because consumer spending falls. And the prerequisite to that is reduced lending.
The reduced lending is already occurring - it is a countdown to when the recession appears. Only this time it will be accompanied by a massive wave of commercial real estate foreclosures - which in turn will make the hurting banking system even worse.
The normal response: cut interest rates and pump liquidity - is going to be problematic since inflation is still high.
So the question for Biden and the Federal Reserve: recession or inflation? Which is the lesser evil?
We will see.
I'd be shocked if NATO trained AFU on COIN. Especially since the US is well versed in complete superiority, their history with Air Land Battle, etc. I think this is more Ukraine has no choice, they have to symbolically sacrifice. 1. To send the message they aren't done yet, and 2. humiliate their western backers for providing a paltry amount of material (in respect to what is needed for a real offensive).
Re COIN, the issue is not so much that NATO would deliberately train Ukrainian forces in it but since the only real experience of current NATO officers and NCOs is in COIN, and most of their equipment has been shaped by that, when those individuals provide training to others, the training is heavily reliant on the tactics and policies which have worked for them in COIN. NATO theories about large formation battle are now just theories, not experienced based, and while trainers may attempt to draw on the theories, which incidentally may be completely impractical, their own direct experience will unconsciously dominate in how they interpret those theories and in what they teach.
And almost all cold war troops think russians are 1990 incompetents if not orks. This filters down to the enlisted and active service.
US doctrine in near-peer or peer conflict is entirely theoretical because it hasn’t done anything like that since at least Vietnam and probably Korea. Everything about the US military has been shaped by 30 years of low intensity conflict. DoD tried to close the tank factory in Lima because it was convinced the age of armor was over. Point being - and it’s a point made by Ukrainians - is that the US can’t really train Ukraine how to fight this war because it doesn’t actually know how to fight it. Its combined experience is in table top war games wherein it generally stacks the deck for itself. Would actual US forces do better than Ukrainian in these situations? Almost certainly, but not without losses, likely significant losses. That too is something the US military and political leadership no longer has any experience with.
near-pee conflict
Really informative and fantastic write up, thank you!
Maybe Zelensky wants these failures so that he can push for the F-15/6s to heat up the conflict more, and that might please Biden and the profiteers.
As someone who has a family member who is one of the mobilised on the Russian side and very close to that area; Simplicius, you couldn’t be any more correct if you tried.
Best wishes to your family member🌺
Thank you
Send my love to that person.
Godspeed
Please send a “stay safe and come home victorious” from the USA.
Will do
My husband American , i am Russian from black see origin from one side of the family and other side from Siberia. Born in USSR.My family generations( man)military- 5 generations. I left Donbas in 1997, because even that time they suppressed Russian language and anything has to do with Russia..btw, nobody spoke Ukrainian language( in my opinion it’s a joke, took me 2 weeks to pass exams in school). I can’t explain how in this regions Kharkov, Zaporojey, Donbas, Kremya, Odessa become Ukraine..it’s absurd. 84% of population in Kiev speaks Russian language! Let’s t
Sink that in...What is the deal? You need to bring “ independent” IMF and show to the “ cream de la cream” of top of the top and same time destroying social security of society. Easy, done before in many countries.. but please, do not f* with a Russian bear.. it may be slow in response but, when it’s awake it will go for the kill
Wars always start with man's inhumanity to man. They end when God stops satan after satan has spilled the blood of those who where stupid enough to listen to him. I hope they get the faggot piano player.
Best wishes for him, from Spain. Hope he can return home soon, safe and Victorious.
We in the US are ruled by -- bandits !!
Well, it seems the Russians have been doing some sandbagging. I'm not a war strategist and know very little about it but it seems the Russian Offensive has come to fruition. Looking at these pics makes me gulp though I am not sure why exactly. I have been patiently waiting for the Russians to fire off with left hooks and right crosses that would devastate Ukraine. I have no ill will towards the Ukies but have ZERO fucks to give for US/EU/NATO Leadership. Since this started I have been waiting for the day when Western media and their little fancy pants NAFO trolls would eat their words.
I don't know if we are there yet but it feels like it might be close. Simplicius thinking you have got to feel somewhat fulfilled. I don't know what other word(s) to say or use so will leave it at that. You and others with similar blogs work hard. The amount of propaganda from the West since this officially kicked off ousted Covid as the number one psyop of all time. This is huge and frankly the best thing that could happen to spare Ukrainian and Russian lives. Men who should be fighting as one instead of each other. There has got to be a lot of humiliation circling about. I don't know from war perspective but from a street fight view I can tell you this kind of humiliating defeat can stop escalation.....or it can lead to desperation. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Been reading your drivel for a bit and it seems you suck up nothing but Western Propaganda.
Been banned removed.
well, RU commentators stated that RU military tells them that
- they can punch through any time (entire armored corps are waiting)
- it would involve losses higher than current, the longer you wait , the less losses RU will suffer
- once you punch through then what? fight Kharkov garrison house to house, 50 thousand strong in a middle of multi million city? Isn't much better to have forces in garrison come out to the open and throw themselves against total superiority (equipment, moral, firepower) of RU without having millions of civilians around??
in summary, RU only wants to move forward when they now that meatgrinders UA sets up for itself (its glorious offensive) are done. As long as UA is willing to waste hundreds/thousands of trained men per day by pushing them into the minefields, these are men RU will not have to fight block by block in big cities which are inevitably on the menu.
We need to find the ukie azov nkvd troops and seize em. Without em the afu will surrender or defecr
No need to find them. They're stupid enough to come to you.
Their azov troops are behind the vanguard usually. They use the fodder to probe defenses
We are just getting started.
Some of us here in America are with you. Some of those people may even help. God be with you.
I am in georgia usa. I was unaware of the donbass situation until vlad did something to set off a hornets nest of hydra qabals. This reaction made me go to rumble to get info on donbass since rt was censored. Once i realized the truth, i tried to tell americans. Most refused to hear me.
I offered them peace and they rejected my words. Now much of donbass has been liberated. And the warmongers will get plenty of war. This time not from underdog limited armed militias.
That’s my story as well. When it officially kicked off I knew the army of media and trolls had to be directed. Shame on anyone who was not suspicious having just come through the Covid fiasco. In CFL. And yes the warmongers are going to get all that they bargained for or more. This is why the nuke option is so troubling IMO. These maniacs may turn to it as a last ditch option.
The term nuke seems to be a code word the secret spcieties and govs use to refer to reverse engineered et tech.
Because they obviously know the ets shut down theirbmissil silos. The military admits this openly.
I got shadow banned by some instapundit disqus mod in feb 2022 for talking about bio weapon labs. 2 weeks before nuland disclosed it in congress.
https://ymarsakar.wordpress.com/2022/05/12/the-worlds-population-is-on-trial/
I warned em. They must have thought they would easily win against god and my angels.
Read it and left you a comment sir.
I still haven't seen a causal theory starting with "explosion at the Kakhovka dam" and ending with "left-bank strip flooded". Explosion is not causal to the strip flooding, but the reverse is true. Or more exactly, they have a common cause: deliberate overflowing of the dam by Ukrainians.
I also belatedly noticed that in Theia dataset, the water levels for Dniepro upstream of Lake Kakhovka only go up to 2023-03-30. Hmm.. that's... suspicious. Personally, I think this is indicative (maybe even proof) that the French Theia is "in", it's part of the conspiracy. Which in turn basically proves the idea of overflowing the dam wasn't dreamt up by Ukrainians, or at the very least it wasn't decided on by them. Because how is Ukraine going to convice a foreign scientific institution to scrub a CRITICAL dataset? US, on the other hand, CAN do both.
But hey, at least they forgot (?) to scrub the water levels for Dniepro downstream of Lake Kakhovka. ;)
At any rate, it seems the initial flooding (from 2023-02-01 to 2023-04-01) was sourced from Dnieper Reservoir, and possibly some smaller ones (I didn't check if Krivoy Rog is connected to Lake Kakhovka) and the flooding afterwards was sourced from Kamianske Reservoir and possibly from Kyiv Reservoir. The exact details are contingent on information on the flow through sections of Dniepro and as I mentioned, that data has been scrubbed. Kremenchutska Reservoir is full as of this writing, AND has a surface area larger than Kakhovka Reservoir... which means there's just SO much damage it can commit. Maybe they'll even be able to cut an erosion channel into the left-bank strip and bypass the main body of the dam that way. They MIGHT even be able to mostly or completely drain Lake Kakhovka! Remains to be seen.
Can you link the French Theia data? It would be very nice to have that link and the data, even if incomplete.
Also, Simplicius had this video in a previous post:
https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1666496316162072584
Black Mountain Analysis had it too with some thorough engineering details as well:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/kakhovka-dam-destruction
And Big Serge mentioned it on twitter.
It's from the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station the day after the dam failed. Which means that Ukraine was trying to exacerbate the flooding. For all intents and purposes that means (strongly implies, almost to the point of certainty) that they blew the Kakhovka dam in order to cause downstream flooding.
Satellite imagery from any number of satellites will show the white water beneath the Dnieper Reservoir so eventually the facts will come out. But for now, as far as I can tell, the news media hasn't touched the topic.
This is their virtual station right after Nova Kakhovka dam: https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0089?lang=en You can find more here: https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/?lang=en&
Oh, you mean the missing dataset? That's here: https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0427 But also others, like on kilometer 881.
Can data not be pulled from the wayback machine, some at least?
I'll have to try, it didn't occur to me.
[trying]
Nope, they don't have it stored. https://web.archive.org/web/20230607212543/https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0427
And at any rate, if collection was stopped in late April, then the data doesn't exist anywhere. Maybe the Chinese also have satellites of the same type and they kept collecting data? I'd need to hunt down their public datasets, if such exist.
HI! I'M FROM THE FUTURE! The missing dataset has been completely removed. But fear not! In their infinite wisdom, the maintainers of Theia have instituted a new virtual station just 3 km away from the old one. It has data from the relevant time period. Take a look: https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNEPR_DNIPRO_KM0430 It's obvious. :) Clear as daylight. :) They shifted water from upstream lakes down to Lake Kakhovka. :)
There's also an anomaly just downstream of Kakhovka dam which, interestingly, isn't really replicated on virtual stations further downstream. I wonder what's that all about... https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0089
All the comments and information I posted on this topic has now been amalgamated into a blog post here: https://becomingbelte.rs/blog/10/overflowing-of-nova-kakhovka-dam
Somebody waited for ukies to release flow. Once verified a dew or god strike was ordered on the dam. That is my suspivion and analysis
Prior to the offensive, I predicted they would be massacred *after* they outran their air support...but gotdam they went and done it without any....
Maybe the MIC wanted a grand destruction of equipment. What better way to get massive government spending on developing new weapons
Guns vs butter, the classic choice of economics 101. Money printer go brrrr, and jobs exported, supply chains stretched, and sanctions galore. It's amazing how much expertise has simply retired, and then resource and energy constraints. So the expectation of profit may be constrained somewhat which leads me to wonder where these arms scammers sit on the risk curve (their butts are on the line) as "Blofeld" isn't happy.
It's not in any way guns vs butter.
Both military and civilian industry provides some kind of value and can ultimately be redirected to either purpose, however inefficient that might be.
It's a case of an increasingly large financial/service sector relying on a decreasingly small productive sector.
When can make way more money giving out loans than actually producing things, there's no reason to produce anything beyond that which allows you to give out those loans.
Money printer gonboom like georgia guidestones
Who is that dork in the video talking about liberating? Who's he saying lied? I didnt understand the the dude, clip or what it had to do with this sitrep. English...spawned the language but I can't understand most of them except that dude in Lucifer series.
He is disappointed that he wasn't executed, but if he stays in Ukraine the Russians may still make him happy.
Yeah, I didn't understand if he was supporting Ukranian or Russia. "You said you would kill me, but you didn't, so you are liars"
I mean what on earth is he trying to say?
He's mentally handicapped. This guy is a mercenary who fought with Azov battalion and was captured in Azovstal last year but was released in a prisoner exchange by Russia after undergoing a lot of hilariously humiliating scenes like being forced to sing the Russian national anthem daily on video: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Pqm7vh363omg/
Now he's acting tough but he'll only get captured again eventually anyway. He used to fight for YPG in Syria, he's a real goober.
I remember the douche but somehow I had never seen that clip before. Hilarious! lol
He's still in time to get hanged this time around.
Mentally handicapped? Maybe he can run for NATO's next commander in chief…
Sure i will exvhange him for gonzalo. Why would i not exchange him. He is demon possessed and we would get a patriot or ally back. Besides dont we have like thousands of these useless azov eaters
The clip at the bottom of the post?
I don't know with certainly, but based on his accent and claims about execution vs exchange I'm guessing he was one of the US/UK guys that volunteered for Ukraine and got captured by the Donbass Republics.
When this started last year, Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. POWs from countries other than Ukraine were labeled as mercenaries by the Donbass Republics and sentenced to death. (There's a complicated amendment to the Geneva Convention that's excludes mercenaries from the POW rules)
When the oblasts were annexed to Russia the death penalty went away because Russian law doesn't allow for it. Also, the westerners were exchanged for some Russian POWs and it all became a moot point.
A British mercenary twat, Aiden Aslin, was captured, tried, sentenced, and released. And now has the cheek to come back and give the Russians the middle finger.
He won't get a second chance the next time he's captured.
BTW earlier, he was a merc with NATO's other pet proxy, the Kurds in Syria.
thanks. was not sure who it was. did it took an appear of some foreign official (Saudi's) to get western mercs released/traded? if true, I am sure Saudis will treat it as a slap in the face it is. And guy who GTFO area or as Ritter says it FAFO
Quick comment: from watching the Ka videos I was wondering: in a column of armored vehicles, which one should you hit?
You answered that question
If possible, a perfect ambush of a column would hit the front and rear vehicles at the same time. The mine clearer is always going to be a primary target
The first one. The last one. Next - to choose from.
At least that's what I was taught when I was studying to be a tank commander.
However, it depends on the situation: the presence of minefields, terrain, available at your disposal and forces, etc.
Aftrr the first 1 would be whichever spaa has rnough range to attack back or shield the grouo from attacks.