Several days ago, an article co-authored by the two crown princes of pro-Ukrainian military bad-takes, the preeminent Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, was published by Foreign Affairs.
Great article, Simplicius, as usual for you. Thank you for your hard work! Please keep it up. However, there is a "typo" in the first sentence. I really think you must have meant "clown princes"
One thing about Russia's increased production that appears to have passed people by is that all those extra shifts etc will mean an increased number of Russians with experience of industrial manufacturing jobs, machining etc. This increase in human capital will have a future flow on effect to the industrial economy regardless of the outcome of the war, and is in marked contrast to the decrease in human capital caused by the West's off-shoring over the past two decades.
I go to Germany for business reasons, I have visited there hundreds of times since the beginning of the eighties and I think I have some experience in this matter. My experience is that the old professionals are slowly dying out or have permanently retired, while the young Germans, in my opinion, as a result of the brainwashing of American propaganda, have completely lost their motivation to learn a profession or participate in any way in the construction of their country, immigrants are now working in German society with rare exceptions differently. Perhaps it says something about the sick German society that most newborns in Berlin are now named Mustafa !
The collective west can't find its way out of financialisation and talk fests. Lessons learned? Hardly given the tsunami of propaganda, fake economic numbers, and pure BS financial accounting. Tucker's removal from the airwaves shows what happens when anyone goes off script.
Nice thought, hankster, but they don't listen to Hudson and that's the problem.
As you probably know, this is real-world proof of Hudson's analysis of financial capitalism vs. industrial capitalism. China and Russia seem to have been listening to him, but the US and the Collective West certainly aren't.
Also, Russia's military will be battle hardened with doctrines proven in battle. There is bound to be knowledge transfer to China and Iran. Will the USA have any surprises left for the coming war with China ?
It's obvious that this confrontation was designed to be a short, sharp military & economic conflict leading to a decisive victory by the US/EU on Russia. THis has turned into a disaster for the the USA/EU and they don't seem to know how to stop it.
I wonder if we're not thinking broadly enough here? Yes, certain factions of the Global Cartel sought this war in hopes of an easy victory over Russia and those factions' position is thereby weakened. But there are other factions for whom defeat in Ukraine or China serves their end goal of crippling the EU and US, making each amenable to wholesale control and dependency upon Big Brother.
We have to stop seeing the world in monochromatic politics. The west is largely controlled by a criminal Oligarchy and they are neither united nor harmonious in purpose and methods.
The coming war with China is vastly different in nature. It will be a war fought on sea. We can already tell by the way China was "wargaming" the blockade of Taiwan. And I believe, like in Ukraine, the US isn't going to engage directly, lest it loses one or two of it's precious aircraft carrier groups.
The Ukraine tested the US being the #1 land Army, Taiwan will tsest if the US is the #1 sea power. Currently it probably is, but we'll see how that changes, if they start bleeding ships. Will they risk the public embarrassment of seeing USS Gerald R. Ford sink below the waves engulfed in smoke and fire? Reminds me of the Brittish Empire. They've been outed as a sham economically, only some time until their military grasp starts to slip.
I think the same, relatively sane voices in the Pentagon who kept objecting to going directly into Ukraine will keep the US out of a direct war with China, and as they themselves admitted, they won't be able to resupply Taiwan.
The Pentagon knows what's going on in the Ukraine war, that's why they are dead silent about Russian casualty numbers and "war crimes". Those who know don't talk, those who talk don't know.
Both countries are the results of centuries of experience in their respective fields.
Fools like the US's Sullivan and the rest of Biden and his clods have driven Russia and China into each other's arms while sewing their own backsides shut.
Russia and China are filling each other's shortcomings very nicely.
Russia's economic capability is probably inadequate to sustain its military at the current levels indefinitely.
China has a large army but it has virtually no experience and it hasn't been very successful if one looks at it's past campaigns.
Russia needs a large, strong economy to finance its military.
By not encircling Bakhmut Russia destroyed a far larger number of Ukrainian troops, over a longer period of time, and with far fewer casualties to itself.
“Well, because by encircling the city, you could have trapped a large number of troops and destroyed them.”
Anyone could have seen this happening over time, and they probably did.
However one of the Western goals is to slaughter Ukrainians so BlackRock and other investment companies can purchase assets for pennies o the dollar due to (1) hyperinflation, (2) fire sale of assets to pay for the war, (3) the need for surviving relatives to have some kind of cash from their estates.
We can only hope Russia annexes most of those lands to rob BlackRock of their investments and to prevent that land from going to waste (and so there will be a clean up effort of all that depleted uranium dust in western Ukraine before too late).
I would suggest that the loss of Black Sea access for what remains of Ukraine is of strategic importance to Russia. Russia innocently thought they could provide just enough troops in the beginning to show Kiev they were serious and a suitable compromise could be negotiated. this proved to be a pipe dream, so Russia now realises that it must put an end to any thought of re-arming Ukraine in the future.
I'm not sure if Russia controlling the sea borders to Ukraine is a game changer, meaning Ukraine can obtain weapons delivered by air or by land. This is basically what Poland is being used for (land conduit, repair stations (land conduit), unofficially some troops (land conduit)).
So that drives up delivery costs and has some impact on system size, but it's not a panacea. Also land delivery is faster than shipborne delivery.
Having said that, ownership of sea borders and especially sea ports is strategic for any country. Most of the world's goods delivery is done by sea because it's by far the lowest cost option.
I concur on Russian initial assumptions. I don't think anyone at that time took Lindsey Grahams words of "fighting to the last Ukrainian" seriously, however now I believe Russia is accommodating that request by Graham.
Compromise today is in terms of a window is now until the (current 4th / future 5th, 6th, 7th, etc., Ukrainian) last army is smashed to pieces.
Ukraine is turning into a terrorist state. This is an implicit acknowledgement that Russia has won militarily, even though the killing will continue for quite some time.
However once the last Ukrainian army is formally defeated, Russia will be faced with a "formal" counter-terrorism operation for x number of years.
If I were a Russian General, I'd take the option of wiping out / driving out as much of the unfriendly population as possible now rather than fighting a protracted counter-terrorism conflict.
Exactly. Just expect more accounting BS to hide the losses. Back in Feb John Titus pulled up FRED and FDIC data showing that the banking system is insolvent. The collective west is in la la land and there's no way there's a "reset" as most of the world has said NO.
What do you think the vultures have already been doing?
"With 33 million hectares of arable land, Ukraine has large swaths of the most fertile farmland in the world. Misguided privatization and corrupt governance since the early 1990s have concentrated land in the hands of a new oligarchic class. Around 4.3 million hectares are under large-scale agri- culture, with the bulk, three million hectares, in the hands of just a dozen large agribusiness firms. In addition, according to the government, about five million hectares – the size of two Crimea – have been “stolen” by private interests from the state of Ukraine. The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is thus over nine million hectares, exceeding 28 percent of the country’s arable land. The rest is used by over eight million Ukrainian farmers.
The largest landholders are a mix of oligarchs and a variety of foreign interests – mostly European and North American, including a US-based private equity fund and the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. All but one of the ten largest landholding firms are registered overseas, mainly in tax havens such as Cyprus or Luxembourg. Even when run and still largely controlled by an oligarch founder, a number of firms have gone public with Western banks and investment funds now controlling a significant amount of their shares.
The report identifies many prominent investors, including Vanguard Group, Kopernik Global Investors, BNP Asset Management Holding, Goldman Sachs-owned NN Investment Partners Holdings, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. A number of large US pension funds, foundations, and university endowments are also invested in Ukrainian land through NCH Capital – a US-based private equity fund, which is the fifth largest landholder in the country."
We are proud to have been a partner of the Ukrainian
Government supporting Ukraine’s development for over twenty five
years.
Our public procurement reform drives towards a completely
transparent procurement environment, eliminating opportunities for
corruption and encouraging a competitive market.
Despite the most challenging of contexts, our work continues
promoting systemic changes in public procurement for the Ministry of
Health of Ukraine. This reform aims at improving the supply chain for the Ministry of Health and ensuring its further operation meets the best European standards and practices. Innovation lies at the heart of our approach, and we have pioneered new tools such as a ‘fast-track’ drug registration service helping to get drugs to the people that need them most.
We see what they did to Ukraine for last 25 years...
What you wrote about the Blackrock land ownership in Ukraine and the unnecessary Ukrainian population reminded me of the endless wheat fields I saw in Washington state, and I thought then that there is no need for many workers there, since most of the work is done by large machines controlled by Gps and there is no need for American workers. Why would they need such a disturbing situation as the rebellious Ukrainians ? And if you don't need them, how can you eliminate that disturbing situation ? Well, we can see a solution to this problem with the involvement of the Russian army, it only required some organization, but that's what a specialist like Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland alias Nudelman is for !
The USSA's neocons, exceed the dictionary definition of "cognitive dissonance" by several orders of magnitude. I'm surprised these freaks could even walk after doing a human interpretation of a pretzel.
Ah nothing best A Simplicius article in the morning with a cup of Vietnamese Robusta drip coffee (the strongest coffee the Westerner can never bring themselves to drink because they accustomed to that watery stuff called expresso and americano or whatever they sell at starbucks, real man drinks Vietnamese coffee, black, no suger, no ice).
One thing i want to point out is that even though the US can print unlimited money and seemingly can produce unlimited amount of supply and war material. these Analysts nd the normal pleb seem to forget that the raw material to produce these things have to come from somewhere. Sadly, the US can still extort the raw material out of the poor global south countries buy using threat of sanction or debt trap by IMF and WB (luckily, these past 5 years or so, Vietnam slowly abstained from borrowing from these crooked international financial institutions to build infrastructure, we still borrow from ADB however, which is still a WB off shoot created by the Jap). So be that as it may seem, i agree with your previous assessment that the War will end when Russia end it and it will be far in future, fast or slow coming, i dont know, it will depend on how Africa react to US and EU colonial dictate to their African dictators.
LOL yeh their marketing is pretty funny. I've got a very high caffeine tolerance from years of sports/pre-workout drinks and I've checked with my cardiologist who said that as long as I keep my BP down, I'm fine and the caffeine poses no danger. I do that with vigorous exercise and beet powder.
I once had a genuine Turkish coffee and wondered when I would come back. I have never had Vietnamese Robusa, maybe one day it will come across my path.
Honestly I take two 200mg caffeine pills when I can't get coffee or even when I know the coffee I'm getting is weak. I doubt Vietnamese coffee (12-16oz) has more than that in it, so I'm curious as to the original OP's comment about it. No fuckin' way it has 300mg, or the usual amount in scoop of pre-workout powder.
Looks like Bakhmut is finally coming to an end. What sort of odds are you giving to Russia making a major offensive vs giving another city the "Bakhmut treatment". Like pushing to Servsk?
I don't read any of those. If I Google it that's what comes up. I can only research what is available to me. If you have any other ways I can research then let me know. You could have provided me with the real news other than your snide condescending comment. Bht apparently you don't have it either and are as useless as new York times
These should give you a good start. I’ve a list of over 30 websites that I visit regularly, but these 5 plus Simplicius here are the 6 that I check daily.
What do the commanders of the various US state national guards think is going on? Clearly their commanders are out of line w/r/t the Constitution let along marching the US into destruction. Enemies foreign and domestic, right? Just following orders, is that what they will say? I'll be writing the Maine commander tomorrow. And yeesh, I can probably get his/rer/their address pretty easily - unlike the Federales. Resign. That should be expected of any officer with integrity. Fat chance, right? That just shows how deep the corruption.
I think more bad intelligence. My buddy is telling me that this is not an existential war with Russia because Crimea was occupied by Nazis??!! at one time. My friends are all willing to fight to the end because Putin is a war criminal like moths to the flame. These guys are in Na-Na land. The problem is, I don't see any road to negotiations until this caves. Lira said the Ukies will cave, and then Ruskie caved on Karkov, and I hope the Ruskies get him back as part of a prisoner swap. For a while it gets much worse before better. Watch for EMPs and falling satellites.
I wonder how Gonzalo is doing, weird how last time everyone was freaking out, this time very few are talking about it. I hope wherever he is he is holding his own and maintaining. Stinking Ukes. I so want their little toad hopper to get squished.
Well, the first time he was arrested it happened out if the public eye and that caused a great deal of confusion and alarm. This time everybody knew what happened from the first moment. So, regardless if the failings of the Ukrainians he at least is in the acknowledged care of an official police force. Nothing anyone can do except to wait for proceedings I guess. The first time it was about finding out where he was.
Thank you for the analysis. I had already glanced through the article but it was too much BS to actually peruse it. Better you than me! I would add that while the article urges continued military support, nowhere therein do they address the grim reality that the Ukrainian economy is now a complete disaster; completely unable to sustain a war effort, barely able to sustain it's citizenry, and no realistic hope to be rebuilt to its pre-war state. Russia on the other hand, while taking losses, is only getting stronger as it ramps up production and gains invaluable battlefield experience in the 21st century environment.
Which got me to thinking...Current Demographics...Hard to be accurate since a count hasn't been done since 2001...Prewar estimate was 43 million, almost certainly too high given the #'s of citizens working abroad...40 million is more reasonable. This count also still includes 2.5 Million in Crimea, 4.1 Million in Donetsk , 2.1 Million in Luhansk, 1.6 Million in Zaporizhzhia, and 1 Million in Kherson. A fair guess is ~8 million of these are Russian occupied, taking us down to maybe 32 million. Official numbers estimate another 7 million fled the war, so we're down to an effective population of ~25 million in 2023.
Since fighting age males were not allowed to leave, the prewar M-F ratio of 47-53 is probably no longer valid, so we'll ignore that. Lets say its 13 million men of all ages... Roughly 60% of these are 18-60, 'fighting age' by Ukraine standards.
These admittedly haphazard calculations leaves ~8 million men capable of fighting...If they have taken casualties of 500 million dead and seriously injured, there's still adequate manpower to fight on for years before approaching WWII Russian/German loss ratios., let alone WWII Greece. If only there was a way to train them properly we'd just have to worry about replacing all those lost workers!
OK so after all that, what is my point? Even if the war ends by the close of this year, they've lost 10% or more of the fighting age men. Let's imagine they don't lose more territory than they already have. The women in the EU would have no incentive to return to a shattered country with a M-F ratio now much worse than before. Most would never come back...post war population would be down to maybe 25 million or so left to rebuild.
If only the IMF cancels all loans, the frozen Russian funds can be 'found' and not included in any ceasefire agreement, Ukrainian corruption magically disappears, and additional hundreds of billions are provided by Western taxpayers it might be possible to get the economy back to half what it was pre-Maidan given 4-5 years of reconstruction. Another trillion dollars and they might be ready to join the EU, with 60% of the prewar population and GDP! Best case that is.
I'd venture to say they are totally screwed even if the war ends soon with the 'Pyrrhic Russian victory' scenario and the above pipe dream somehow manifested as well.
Reading all this I think back to one of the few things Obama said that was correct. Russia has "escalation dominance" over any NATO or NATO proxy forces that Ukraine could muster. Of course Obummer didn't coin that term, but he did use it properly in, I think, one of the debates against Romney way back in 2012*.
Obama had good instincts but the blob is hard to fight. Get too uppity they'll impeach you like Trump or kill you like Kennedy. Few Presidents understand the concept of "security dilemma", but they did, the blob vying for 2 trillion/yr don't care about it. Perpetual war is very profitable.
Good analysis as usual. This part worries me though:
'The fact of the matter is, the ‘West’, powered by the propaganda churning mill of inept ‘analysts’ like the above, will be in for a massive shock and rude awakening when they begin to see the effects of Russia’s unprecedented economic up-scaling actually percolating down to the battlefield. It remains unseen for now only because Russia continues to lie in wait, like a panther in the savannah brush, for the right opportunity to strike. But if these faulty premises are what the West chooses to continue operating under for their understanding of the battlefield dynamic, then the future will be riddled with cognitive dissonances and finger pointing the likes of which we can hardly imagine. It’s only to Ukraine and the West’s detriment that they so desperately downplay and attempt to whitewash Russia’s unprecedented industrial revitalization."
There is an eerie pre-WWII vibe to this statement and the situation. I'm sensing that when TPTB and their media in the "west" are ready to admit that Russia stands on an unprecedently massive military footing, we will be subjected to the full Putin-as-Hitler treatment and NATO will somehow engineer a Russian provocation against one of its members to "justify" the big European ground war these neocon warmongers seem to have nocturnal emissions about. I hope EUkraine is crushed before this happens, just because I don't trust the psychos in the "west" not to escalate past a point that they are unable to maintain control.
I suspect we will find the West has hollowed itself out too much to really push back. Remember that by the time this is over, pretty much the rest of the world, other than Europe and North America, are going to be looking at Russia as the pushback for the last several centuries of colonialism and heralding them for putting the West in its place. Meanwhile we will have a generation of people who grew up eating fast food, playing on their computers and assuming a "real job" involves sitting behind a desk.
All of which are conducive to delusions and none of which are conducive to productivity. Artificial intelligence is not going to solve our problems. We are not going to CGI the Russians into submission.
I see so many conflicting messages these days. Just last week I read an article based on a recent study which found that something like 46% of all global weapons sales were by the US or US firms. Yet I also know that we really don't manufacture a lot these days and that there have been shortages due to the Ukraine situation along with the inability to ramp up production to the degree necessary to sustain the war, much less to be able to enter any war against a peer military directly. But anyway, what kind of weapons are they talking about with 46%? I'm guessing rifles, small explosives and bloated fighter jets? I really didn't read the source study in any detail; just the article at a trustworthy site.
I suspect a lot of that is expensive weapons being bought by our vassal states. Remember we have something like 900 military bases scattered around the world.
I don't know how old you are, but back in the 90's, when actually criticizing military waste was allowed, one of the choice examples was the 900 dollar toilet seats. Given our national religion is dollar based, cost is status, like those $20,000 dollar Gucci handbags.
That much of it is expansive junk, is beside the point.
I’m of the same opinion as AshS. I think the percentage references volume of sales in dollars. But this is just another expression of the inflated western economy, not real industrial output but its financial expression.
Like everything else in the western economy it’s just an accountancy trick.
Since it can't think outside the box, it quickly becomes GIGO, as soon as some little thing is off. Like self driving cars. They work fine, 90% of the time.
Yes, expect dissonance and propaganda aided by a one eyed AI running a panopticon. These clowns don't have much expect a big red button, but I expect even deep staters know that they won't survive. Expect more whimpering.
True enough; their only capacity is to attempt the WEF plans for a "great reset" of controlled/programmed CBDCs and directed lifestyle/consumption choices. Now you can see the dissonance as significant parts of the world reject these choices leaving them with a "little reset" of the "collective west".
They say they have. But it's always a risk simply because the river right at the edge of the plant pretty much cements the fact that Ukraine's lines are right near by and there's very little 'room to maneuver' or fall back. They are planning a very tricky operation that includes undersea divers which will screen the main boarding party coming aboard huge barges and other attack vessels. The divers will be the absolute highest end SAS/Seal type guys who will secure the drop points and landing zones on the shore, then come the faster attack boats and huge barges holding hundreds of troops each. This will be done on several axes, upwards of 3-4 or more different landing zones west and east of the ZNPP and will be preceded by massive screening operation of drone swarm attacks, artillery, falseflag, psyop, and everything in between. No matter how prepared the Russian forces are it will be difficult to withstand simply because--contrary to the popular opinion that defender has the advantage--in many situations the attacker has the vast advantage owing to the advantage of surprise. The attack will likely begin at night or early morning and will be backed by every conceivable western resource including jamming and EW to try to confuse and send the Russian side into chaos. But at the end of the day Russia has some important advantages as well, particularly of air power as attack choppers saved the day last time by strafing the attacking boats from afar and riddling the shores with guided missiles.
It's worth looking at a map and satellite photos to get a feeling for how precisely the reactors are situated relative to the river shoreline. The reactors form a row about 900 meters long running roughly from SSW to NNE. The northern tip of this row of reactors is indeed very close to the shoreline but the approach is like a funnel because the river makes a 90 degrees bend precisely at this point. Bottom line is, the most direct approach from the north is very narrow, all the more indirect approaches provide for some appreciable space to place mines and obstacles, in particular directly on the shoreline. Approaching directly from the west of the reactor area appears to be impossible because there is a large, almost quadratically-shaped water basin located there that's about three by three kilometers wide. It must have served to or still serves to manage the inflow and outflow of cooling water to and from the reactors. This whole thing is huge. The basin itself is separated from the river by two narrow stretches of land that form a 90 degrees angle against each other, pointing NW. It's unclear whether the basin was dug out when the NPP was built, or whether those stretches of land where reclaimed from the river. At any rate, it's not the case that the facility has a large open flank directly directly against the river. Further to the west, beyond the basin, there is a large area almost fully filled with green houses, to the east there is the town of Energodar, which has no shoreline and has now been evacuated, to the NE of the facility and to the north of Energodar, there is open space against the river, beyond Ergodar further to the east and directly against the river there are fields. In all southerly directions there are wide open fields. The only theoretical possibility of attacking the plant appears to be a suicide operation from the north to pin down the defenders, accompanied by flanking attacks to the west and the east. Helicopters probably won't play a decisive role this time because of NASAM. The Russians have EW on their own, of course. But it stands to reason that this EW won't be as effective as usual against types of drones that the Ukainians have held back. The Russians will place their bets on mines, lots and lots of them, not having to worry about civilians as Energodar has been evacuated, glide bombs dropped from afar and having pre-sighted the whole area with their artillery. Mines will slow down even the most high-end SEAL guys, in which case artillery will be able to be called in on them. That will at least be the idea. As for barges, they are impossible to hide. Can the Russians not destroy them all preemptively?
Active sonar easily identifies divers day or night. Once located, depth charges can destroy divers, no matter how top end they might be. Worse than the barotrauma from TOS-1A thermobaric rockets on land. If frogmen are the wunderwaffe of the next assault, it is also doomed to fail.
Thanks, according to how you have reminded me then; I have confidence Russia will make and take every available precaution every measure to keep this facility out of the hands of the maniacs
I’m sure if Russia can’t safeguard the power plant no one can.
Still gets me that the West's 'leaders' lunatics that they are, still get away with referring to it as supporting 'Ukraine' and so on.
It is Kiev Ukraine they are supporting and that is destroying 'Ukraine' itself.
Kiev Ukraine itself is sworn to destroy 'Ukraine' for it is sworn to ethnically cleanse the Donbas Ukraine which is to say, destroy part of the essence of Ukraine, a large number of its people, traditions, relationships, attachments: everything.
It is a Civil War plain and simple and Kiev is sworn to crush all opposition. Which you cannot see as 'supporting Ukraine' for its the murder of Ukraine and an attempt to install a 'new Ukraine'.
Not my idea is it? It is their declaration. Just like the Nazi Germans before them they seek to ethnically cleanse. That's no victory, no suppport for 'Ukraine'.
A living vibrant healthy happy Ukraine would have had 10 million Donbas Ukrainians living happily and healthily in it alongside their brothers.
Supporting THAT is 'supporting Ukraine'. But there's never any hint of that from these lunatic (mis)leaders nor anyone else.
Don't quibble and carp about 'Donbas is now part of Russia' for you well know Kiev & USA & etc. etc. do not recognise that for a minute.
When Kiev and USA etc. say 'Ukraine' we all know they mean, notionally, the whole territory of Ukraine, Kiev oblasts and Donbas oblasts, everything, everywhere, even including Crimea, 'owned' by Kiev.
And that means with Donbas Ukrainians obliterated.
So just using the word in that way 'support Ukraine' implies completely the obliteration of 10 million Russia oriented or connected Ukrainians. When you use the words that way you've tacitly eliminated them, dispensed with them, pushed the off the board, beyond consideration.
Thank you. I appreciate your encouragement. It is much appreciated for we're fighting against an enormous wall of lies, misunderstanding, deception.
As for size it is all relative isn't it? To an Australian the whole of Ukraine, Kiev and Donbas states together, would fit comfortably into NSW. To them it would be internecine strife in a single state. Like New South Welshmen fighting New South Welshmen. And that's what's happening in Ukraine: Ukrainian fighting Ukrainian.
For nothing.
In the interests of creating a 'pure' Ukrainians state entirely free of any Russian heritage, blood, custom, art, science etc..
Even at the cost of killing them all. Every Donbas Ukrainian. Which we've seen Kiev declare.
Even at the cost of the dying of a quarter of a million Kiev Ukrainians, which we've seen.
Even at the cost of Kiev Ukrainians dying to 'the last man', which insanity we've seen Kiev declare.
The insanity, the illogic, is so great it is difficult to even talk about it. But if it were possible to 'succeed' in this lunatic enterprise - i.e. create a 'pure' Ukrainian state after murdering all your brothers and sacrificing the majority of your own population and instituting the 'ethnic purity' -
what then the 'purity', the moral state, the ethical state, the actual civilisational state of what you then have?
The insanity is truly staggering. Truly.
When heads of state stand up in public and declare they must 'help Ukraine' by fueling a war between Ukrainian brothers which is ripping Ukraine apart, destroying Europe, killing Ukrainians at an enormous rate one despairs of any rationality anywhere in the world.
When no one takes them to task.
Not the MSM. Not our 'intellectuals'. Certainly not our politicians. Not our educators. No one.
Not any one.
If you can help a little it would be truly important in that context I think. Simply add your little bit whenever wherever you post.
Perhaps as I do. Have your prepared text and simply copy and paste it in all about the place.
Then we're trying and that's about all we can do.
Have you read Kipling's 'IF' ? Famous old poem from way back. Very inspiring piece of work.
Has a line in it that begins: 'If you can keep your head while all about are losing theirs...'
I think that's what we need to do. Just that simple thing. Keep our heads.
One quarter million men have died in the cause of an insane 'ethnic cleansing' canard motivated by an American desire to ruin Russia and Europe in which, so far, they have been very successful.
Yes in almost all wars since the Middle Age or even earlier.
Great article, Simplicius, as usual for you. Thank you for your hard work! Please keep it up. However, there is a "typo" in the first sentence. I really think you must have meant "clown princes"
😂
One thing about Russia's increased production that appears to have passed people by is that all those extra shifts etc will mean an increased number of Russians with experience of industrial manufacturing jobs, machining etc. This increase in human capital will have a future flow on effect to the industrial economy regardless of the outcome of the war, and is in marked contrast to the decrease in human capital caused by the West's off-shoring over the past two decades.
Which is especially true for Germany.
That whole country is doomed.
I go to Germany for business reasons, I have visited there hundreds of times since the beginning of the eighties and I think I have some experience in this matter. My experience is that the old professionals are slowly dying out or have permanently retired, while the young Germans, in my opinion, as a result of the brainwashing of American propaganda, have completely lost their motivation to learn a profession or participate in any way in the construction of their country, immigrants are now working in German society with rare exceptions differently. Perhaps it says something about the sick German society that most newborns in Berlin are now named Mustafa !
The collective west can't find its way out of financialisation and talk fests. Lessons learned? Hardly given the tsunami of propaganda, fake economic numbers, and pure BS financial accounting. Tucker's removal from the airwaves shows what happens when anyone goes off script.
michael hudson keeps them honest.
Nice thought, hankster, but they don't listen to Hudson and that's the problem.
As you probably know, this is real-world proof of Hudson's analysis of financial capitalism vs. industrial capitalism. China and Russia seem to have been listening to him, but the US and the Collective West certainly aren't.
Update: There is a great interview between Michael Hudson, Radhika Desai, and Mick Dunford posted at Naked Capitalism with a transcript.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/05/ukraines-neoliberalism-on-steroids-europes-economic-suicide.html
Also, Russia's military will be battle hardened with doctrines proven in battle. There is bound to be knowledge transfer to China and Iran. Will the USA have any surprises left for the coming war with China ?
It's obvious that this confrontation was designed to be a short, sharp military & economic conflict leading to a decisive victory by the US/EU on Russia. THis has turned into a disaster for the the USA/EU and they don't seem to know how to stop it.
I wonder if we're not thinking broadly enough here? Yes, certain factions of the Global Cartel sought this war in hopes of an easy victory over Russia and those factions' position is thereby weakened. But there are other factions for whom defeat in Ukraine or China serves their end goal of crippling the EU and US, making each amenable to wholesale control and dependency upon Big Brother.
We have to stop seeing the world in monochromatic politics. The west is largely controlled by a criminal Oligarchy and they are neither united nor harmonious in purpose and methods.
The coming war with China is vastly different in nature. It will be a war fought on sea. We can already tell by the way China was "wargaming" the blockade of Taiwan. And I believe, like in Ukraine, the US isn't going to engage directly, lest it loses one or two of it's precious aircraft carrier groups.
The Ukraine tested the US being the #1 land Army, Taiwan will tsest if the US is the #1 sea power. Currently it probably is, but we'll see how that changes, if they start bleeding ships. Will they risk the public embarrassment of seeing USS Gerald R. Ford sink below the waves engulfed in smoke and fire? Reminds me of the Brittish Empire. They've been outed as a sham economically, only some time until their military grasp starts to slip.
I think the same, relatively sane voices in the Pentagon who kept objecting to going directly into Ukraine will keep the US out of a direct war with China, and as they themselves admitted, they won't be able to resupply Taiwan.
The Pentagon knows what's going on in the Ukraine war, that's why they are dead silent about Russian casualty numbers and "war crimes". Those who know don't talk, those who talk don't know.
A lot of people seem to miss that point.
Here's another one:
Russia's a military powerhouse.
China's an economic one.
Both countries are the results of centuries of experience in their respective fields.
Fools like the US's Sullivan and the rest of Biden and his clods have driven Russia and China into each other's arms while sewing their own backsides shut.
Russia and China are filling each other's shortcomings very nicely.
Russia's economic capability is probably inadequate to sustain its military at the current levels indefinitely.
China has a large army but it has virtually no experience and it hasn't been very successful if one looks at it's past campaigns.
Russia needs a large, strong economy to finance its military.
China needs a powerful military.
This is a match made in heaven.
By not encircling Bakhmut Russia destroyed a far larger number of Ukrainian troops, over a longer period of time, and with far fewer casualties to itself.
“Well, because by encircling the city, you could have trapped a large number of troops and destroyed them.”
Anyone could have seen this happening over time, and they probably did.
However one of the Western goals is to slaughter Ukrainians so BlackRock and other investment companies can purchase assets for pennies o the dollar due to (1) hyperinflation, (2) fire sale of assets to pay for the war, (3) the need for surviving relatives to have some kind of cash from their estates.
We can only hope Russia annexes most of those lands to rob BlackRock of their investments and to prevent that land from going to waste (and so there will be a clean up effort of all that depleted uranium dust in western Ukraine before too late).
Russia doesn't want to occupy all of Ukraine. It wants the Russian speaking areas so those populations are protected.
Beyond that, Russia needs a pro-Russian regime installed in rump state Ukraine.
We know what a Russian strategic defeat looks like:
- Ukraine joining NATO
- pro-Western Ukrainian government that can rearm and restart another conflict a few years from now
- a non-neutral Ukraine (say something like Austria)
- no Russian military (like the Allies had in Germany post-WW2) in post-conflict Ukraine
There's scope between Russia's strategic wants and a Russian defeat for a compromise of some kind.
However the longer the conflict goes on, the less Russia needs to compromise. Meaning the loss of Odessa, the loss of the entire Donbas region, etc.
I would suggest that the loss of Black Sea access for what remains of Ukraine is of strategic importance to Russia. Russia innocently thought they could provide just enough troops in the beginning to show Kiev they were serious and a suitable compromise could be negotiated. this proved to be a pipe dream, so Russia now realises that it must put an end to any thought of re-arming Ukraine in the future.
I'm not sure if Russia controlling the sea borders to Ukraine is a game changer, meaning Ukraine can obtain weapons delivered by air or by land. This is basically what Poland is being used for (land conduit, repair stations (land conduit), unofficially some troops (land conduit)).
So that drives up delivery costs and has some impact on system size, but it's not a panacea. Also land delivery is faster than shipborne delivery.
Having said that, ownership of sea borders and especially sea ports is strategic for any country. Most of the world's goods delivery is done by sea because it's by far the lowest cost option.
I concur on Russian initial assumptions. I don't think anyone at that time took Lindsey Grahams words of "fighting to the last Ukrainian" seriously, however now I believe Russia is accommodating that request by Graham.
Compromise today is in terms of a window is now until the (current 4th / future 5th, 6th, 7th, etc., Ukrainian) last army is smashed to pieces.
Ukraine is turning into a terrorist state. This is an implicit acknowledgement that Russia has won militarily, even though the killing will continue for quite some time.
However once the last Ukrainian army is formally defeated, Russia will be faced with a "formal" counter-terrorism operation for x number of years.
If I were a Russian General, I'd take the option of wiping out / driving out as much of the unfriendly population as possible now rather than fighting a protracted counter-terrorism conflict.
That clown Zelenskyy publicly invited Black Rock to buy his country off. BR need Odessa port.
There is another rather intriguing non- profit named CROWNE AGENTS. Check out who they are partners with:
African Development Bank /
Asian Development Bank /
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation /
Children’s Investment Fund Foundation /
Commercial Bank of Ethiopia /
Department of International Trade, UK /
Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office /
European Union /
Government of Ghana /
Government of Lebanon /
Government of Nigeria /
Government of Tajikistan /
Government of Ukraine /
Government of Zimbabwe /
Millenium Challenge Corporation /
United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)/
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) /
United States Agency for International Development /
United States Trade and Development Agency /
World Bank /
To explore opportunities to partner with Crown Agents, please contact us at enquiries@crownagents.co.uk
This is website of this octopus with tentacles all over the world.
https://www.crownagents.com/who-we-are/who-we-work-with/
That's another US pipe dream. That land will belong to Russia, post war, and the US interests won't get diddly squat.
BlackRock will NEVER get to carpetbag Ukraine.
Exactly. Just expect more accounting BS to hide the losses. Back in Feb John Titus pulled up FRED and FDIC data showing that the banking system is insolvent. The collective west is in la la land and there's no way there's a "reset" as most of the world has said NO.
What do you think the vultures have already been doing?
"With 33 million hectares of arable land, Ukraine has large swaths of the most fertile farmland in the world. Misguided privatization and corrupt governance since the early 1990s have concentrated land in the hands of a new oligarchic class. Around 4.3 million hectares are under large-scale agri- culture, with the bulk, three million hectares, in the hands of just a dozen large agribusiness firms. In addition, according to the government, about five million hectares – the size of two Crimea – have been “stolen” by private interests from the state of Ukraine. The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is thus over nine million hectares, exceeding 28 percent of the country’s arable land. The rest is used by over eight million Ukrainian farmers.
The largest landholders are a mix of oligarchs and a variety of foreign interests – mostly European and North American, including a US-based private equity fund and the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. All but one of the ten largest landholding firms are registered overseas, mainly in tax havens such as Cyprus or Luxembourg. Even when run and still largely controlled by an oligarch founder, a number of firms have gone public with Western banks and investment funds now controlling a significant amount of their shares.
The report identifies many prominent investors, including Vanguard Group, Kopernik Global Investors, BNP Asset Management Holding, Goldman Sachs-owned NN Investment Partners Holdings, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. A number of large US pension funds, foundations, and university endowments are also invested in Ukrainian land through NCH Capital – a US-based private equity fund, which is the fifth largest landholder in the country."
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/sites/oaklandinstitute.org/files/takeover-ukraine-agricultural-land.pdf
We are proud to have been a partner of the Ukrainian
Government supporting Ukraine’s development for over twenty five
years.
Our public procurement reform drives towards a completely
transparent procurement environment, eliminating opportunities for
corruption and encouraging a competitive market.
Despite the most challenging of contexts, our work continues
promoting systemic changes in public procurement for the Ministry of
Health of Ukraine. This reform aims at improving the supply chain for the Ministry of Health and ensuring its further operation meets the best European standards and practices. Innovation lies at the heart of our approach, and we have pioneered new tools such as a ‘fast-track’ drug registration service helping to get drugs to the people that need them most.
We see what they did to Ukraine for last 25 years...
This organization called CROWNE AGENTS
https://www.crownagents.com/ca-ukraine/
What Ukrainians are really dying for:
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/sites/oaklandinstitute.org/files/takeover-ukraine-agricultural-land.pdf
The Natoids will have fun trying to take "their" land from the Russian army.
What you wrote about the Blackrock land ownership in Ukraine and the unnecessary Ukrainian population reminded me of the endless wheat fields I saw in Washington state, and I thought then that there is no need for many workers there, since most of the work is done by large machines controlled by Gps and there is no need for American workers. Why would they need such a disturbing situation as the rebellious Ukrainians ? And if you don't need them, how can you eliminate that disturbing situation ? Well, we can see a solution to this problem with the involvement of the Russian army, it only required some organization, but that's what a specialist like Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland alias Nudelman is for !
Greed knows no bounds. That's the short answer.
👍
The USSA's neocons, exceed the dictionary definition of "cognitive dissonance" by several orders of magnitude. I'm surprised these freaks could even walk after doing a human interpretation of a pretzel.
Ah nothing best A Simplicius article in the morning with a cup of Vietnamese Robusta drip coffee (the strongest coffee the Westerner can never bring themselves to drink because they accustomed to that watery stuff called expresso and americano or whatever they sell at starbucks, real man drinks Vietnamese coffee, black, no suger, no ice).
One thing i want to point out is that even though the US can print unlimited money and seemingly can produce unlimited amount of supply and war material. these Analysts nd the normal pleb seem to forget that the raw material to produce these things have to come from somewhere. Sadly, the US can still extort the raw material out of the poor global south countries buy using threat of sanction or debt trap by IMF and WB (luckily, these past 5 years or so, Vietnam slowly abstained from borrowing from these crooked international financial institutions to build infrastructure, we still borrow from ADB however, which is still a WB off shoot created by the Jap). So be that as it may seem, i agree with your previous assessment that the War will end when Russia end it and it will be far in future, fast or slow coming, i dont know, it will depend on how Africa react to US and EU colonial dictate to their African dictators.
*espresso
I've been drinking this stuff. https://biohazardcoffee.com/
"Perfect for parenting hyperactive kids". LMAO.
I hope your heart doesn't explode.
LOL yeh their marketing is pretty funny. I've got a very high caffeine tolerance from years of sports/pre-workout drinks and I've checked with my cardiologist who said that as long as I keep my BP down, I'm fine and the caffeine poses no danger. I do that with vigorous exercise and beet powder.
I once had a genuine Turkish coffee and wondered when I would come back. I have never had Vietnamese Robusa, maybe one day it will come across my path.
"...and wondered when I would come back..." From the dead? Strong coffee will do that to you. 🙂
to the planet, when I would come back to the planet.
I prefer a regular cup of coffee w/a Dove ice cream bar. Perfect.
Yeah, there's nothing like a sweet cuppa coffee.
Honestly I take two 200mg caffeine pills when I can't get coffee or even when I know the coffee I'm getting is weak. I doubt Vietnamese coffee (12-16oz) has more than that in it, so I'm curious as to the original OP's comment about it. No fuckin' way it has 300mg, or the usual amount in scoop of pre-workout powder.
Coffee and ice cream? My teeth hurt just thinking about it
Looks like Bakhmut is finally coming to an end. What sort of odds are you giving to Russia making a major offensive vs giving another city the "Bakhmut treatment". Like pushing to Servsk?
What makes you say this? Only thing I can see when researching is how Russia is losing ground?
"Researching" and you find that Russia is losing ground? Reading NYT and watching CNN is not research.
I don't read any of those. If I Google it that's what comes up. I can only research what is available to me. If you have any other ways I can research then let me know. You could have provided me with the real news other than your snide condescending comment. Bht apparently you don't have it either and are as useless as new York times
My 🇺🇦 cleaning lady back your statement. Offensive is a stupendous success
Nice contribution. Very detailed and helpful
That’s the level of info u get on a daily basis
Ok for a start ditch jewgle. They place truth sites way down on the searches. Stay off MSM and so called indymedia.
So get my info where? Other than rt and simplicius that's all I've got
1) RT
2) Sputnik
3) Consortium News
4) sonar21
5) moons of Alabama
These should give you a good start. I’ve a list of over 30 websites that I visit regularly, but these 5 plus Simplicius here are the 6 that I check daily.
What do the commanders of the various US state national guards think is going on? Clearly their commanders are out of line w/r/t the Constitution let along marching the US into destruction. Enemies foreign and domestic, right? Just following orders, is that what they will say? I'll be writing the Maine commander tomorrow. And yeesh, I can probably get his/rer/their address pretty easily - unlike the Federales. Resign. That should be expected of any officer with integrity. Fat chance, right? That just shows how deep the corruption.
How about states quitting the Guard?
Go to state troops/organized militia that can't be federalized.
All the talk about a Ukraine Offensive seems to be a distraction...
I think more bad intelligence. My buddy is telling me that this is not an existential war with Russia because Crimea was occupied by Nazis??!! at one time. My friends are all willing to fight to the end because Putin is a war criminal like moths to the flame. These guys are in Na-Na land. The problem is, I don't see any road to negotiations until this caves. Lira said the Ukies will cave, and then Ruskie caved on Karkov, and I hope the Ruskies get him back as part of a prisoner swap. For a while it gets much worse before better. Watch for EMPs and falling satellites.
I wonder how Gonzalo is doing, weird how last time everyone was freaking out, this time very few are talking about it. I hope wherever he is he is holding his own and maintaining. Stinking Ukes. I so want their little toad hopper to get squished.
Well, the first time he was arrested it happened out if the public eye and that caused a great deal of confusion and alarm. This time everybody knew what happened from the first moment. So, regardless if the failings of the Ukrainians he at least is in the acknowledged care of an official police force. Nothing anyone can do except to wait for proceedings I guess. The first time it was about finding out where he was.
Thank you for the analysis. I had already glanced through the article but it was too much BS to actually peruse it. Better you than me! I would add that while the article urges continued military support, nowhere therein do they address the grim reality that the Ukrainian economy is now a complete disaster; completely unable to sustain a war effort, barely able to sustain it's citizenry, and no realistic hope to be rebuilt to its pre-war state. Russia on the other hand, while taking losses, is only getting stronger as it ramps up production and gains invaluable battlefield experience in the 21st century environment.
Which got me to thinking...Current Demographics...Hard to be accurate since a count hasn't been done since 2001...Prewar estimate was 43 million, almost certainly too high given the #'s of citizens working abroad...40 million is more reasonable. This count also still includes 2.5 Million in Crimea, 4.1 Million in Donetsk , 2.1 Million in Luhansk, 1.6 Million in Zaporizhzhia, and 1 Million in Kherson. A fair guess is ~8 million of these are Russian occupied, taking us down to maybe 32 million. Official numbers estimate another 7 million fled the war, so we're down to an effective population of ~25 million in 2023.
Since fighting age males were not allowed to leave, the prewar M-F ratio of 47-53 is probably no longer valid, so we'll ignore that. Lets say its 13 million men of all ages... Roughly 60% of these are 18-60, 'fighting age' by Ukraine standards.
These admittedly haphazard calculations leaves ~8 million men capable of fighting...If they have taken casualties of 500 million dead and seriously injured, there's still adequate manpower to fight on for years before approaching WWII Russian/German loss ratios., let alone WWII Greece. If only there was a way to train them properly we'd just have to worry about replacing all those lost workers!
OK so after all that, what is my point? Even if the war ends by the close of this year, they've lost 10% or more of the fighting age men. Let's imagine they don't lose more territory than they already have. The women in the EU would have no incentive to return to a shattered country with a M-F ratio now much worse than before. Most would never come back...post war population would be down to maybe 25 million or so left to rebuild.
If only the IMF cancels all loans, the frozen Russian funds can be 'found' and not included in any ceasefire agreement, Ukrainian corruption magically disappears, and additional hundreds of billions are provided by Western taxpayers it might be possible to get the economy back to half what it was pre-Maidan given 4-5 years of reconstruction. Another trillion dollars and they might be ready to join the EU, with 60% of the prewar population and GDP! Best case that is.
I'd venture to say they are totally screwed even if the war ends soon with the 'Pyrrhic Russian victory' scenario and the above pipe dream somehow manifested as well.
Reading all this I think back to one of the few things Obama said that was correct. Russia has "escalation dominance" over any NATO or NATO proxy forces that Ukraine could muster. Of course Obummer didn't coin that term, but he did use it properly in, I think, one of the debates against Romney way back in 2012*.
Here's how its defined in NATO terms.
https://breakingdefense.com/2015/02/how-to-manage-putin-russias-escalation-dominance/
* I could be way off on this, but it's my current recollection.
Obama had good instincts but the blob is hard to fight. Get too uppity they'll impeach you like Trump or kill you like Kennedy. Few Presidents understand the concept of "security dilemma", but they did, the blob vying for 2 trillion/yr don't care about it. Perpetual war is very profitable.
Good analysis as usual. This part worries me though:
'The fact of the matter is, the ‘West’, powered by the propaganda churning mill of inept ‘analysts’ like the above, will be in for a massive shock and rude awakening when they begin to see the effects of Russia’s unprecedented economic up-scaling actually percolating down to the battlefield. It remains unseen for now only because Russia continues to lie in wait, like a panther in the savannah brush, for the right opportunity to strike. But if these faulty premises are what the West chooses to continue operating under for their understanding of the battlefield dynamic, then the future will be riddled with cognitive dissonances and finger pointing the likes of which we can hardly imagine. It’s only to Ukraine and the West’s detriment that they so desperately downplay and attempt to whitewash Russia’s unprecedented industrial revitalization."
There is an eerie pre-WWII vibe to this statement and the situation. I'm sensing that when TPTB and their media in the "west" are ready to admit that Russia stands on an unprecedently massive military footing, we will be subjected to the full Putin-as-Hitler treatment and NATO will somehow engineer a Russian provocation against one of its members to "justify" the big European ground war these neocon warmongers seem to have nocturnal emissions about. I hope EUkraine is crushed before this happens, just because I don't trust the psychos in the "west" not to escalate past a point that they are unable to maintain control.
I suspect we will find the West has hollowed itself out too much to really push back. Remember that by the time this is over, pretty much the rest of the world, other than Europe and North America, are going to be looking at Russia as the pushback for the last several centuries of colonialism and heralding them for putting the West in its place. Meanwhile we will have a generation of people who grew up eating fast food, playing on their computers and assuming a "real job" involves sitting behind a desk.
All of which are conducive to delusions and none of which are conducive to productivity. Artificial intelligence is not going to solve our problems. We are not going to CGI the Russians into submission.
I see so many conflicting messages these days. Just last week I read an article based on a recent study which found that something like 46% of all global weapons sales were by the US or US firms. Yet I also know that we really don't manufacture a lot these days and that there have been shortages due to the Ukraine situation along with the inability to ramp up production to the degree necessary to sustain the war, much less to be able to enter any war against a peer military directly. But anyway, what kind of weapons are they talking about with 46%? I'm guessing rifles, small explosives and bloated fighter jets? I really didn't read the source study in any detail; just the article at a trustworthy site.
I suspect a lot of that is expensive weapons being bought by our vassal states. Remember we have something like 900 military bases scattered around the world.
I don't know how old you are, but back in the 90's, when actually criticizing military waste was allowed, one of the choice examples was the 900 dollar toilet seats. Given our national religion is dollar based, cost is status, like those $20,000 dollar Gucci handbags.
That much of it is expansive junk, is beside the point.
Like our groceries then. BUT SOCHULIZM would make dem eBen moAr spensive!!!
Capitalism keeps the inflation in the asset side of the equation, until it doesn't and that enormous bubble of casino chips starts leaking.
https://johnmerryman.substack.com/p/a-pre-mortem-of-western-civ
46% is probably based on revenue. Now imagine a 100k drone and a $14MM Kinzhal being defended by a $250MM Patriot.
This probably explains the shortage of weaponry on the west side even though revenue # is 46%
on patriot battery cost 1b usd
I’m of the same opinion as AshS. I think the percentage references volume of sales in dollars. But this is just another expression of the inflated western economy, not real industrial output but its financial expression.
Like everything else in the western economy it’s just an accountancy trick.
Artificial Intelligence is on par with Artificial Sweetener.
Think. Inside the Box.
Since it can't think outside the box, it quickly becomes GIGO, as soon as some little thing is off. Like self driving cars. They work fine, 90% of the time.
Yes, expect dissonance and propaganda aided by a one eyed AI running a panopticon. These clowns don't have much expect a big red button, but I expect even deep staters know that they won't survive. Expect more whimpering.
The ones at the top don't have any vision. Their only job is running up the debt the banks need to function.
True enough; their only capacity is to attempt the WEF plans for a "great reset" of controlled/programmed CBDCs and directed lifestyle/consumption choices. Now you can see the dissonance as significant parts of the world reject these choices leaving them with a "little reset" of the "collective west".
You have certainly reduced the number of sources I need to get a fuller picture of the war. Thanks for your posts.
I just hope Russia has fully secured the nuclear power plant.
They say they have. But it's always a risk simply because the river right at the edge of the plant pretty much cements the fact that Ukraine's lines are right near by and there's very little 'room to maneuver' or fall back. They are planning a very tricky operation that includes undersea divers which will screen the main boarding party coming aboard huge barges and other attack vessels. The divers will be the absolute highest end SAS/Seal type guys who will secure the drop points and landing zones on the shore, then come the faster attack boats and huge barges holding hundreds of troops each. This will be done on several axes, upwards of 3-4 or more different landing zones west and east of the ZNPP and will be preceded by massive screening operation of drone swarm attacks, artillery, falseflag, psyop, and everything in between. No matter how prepared the Russian forces are it will be difficult to withstand simply because--contrary to the popular opinion that defender has the advantage--in many situations the attacker has the vast advantage owing to the advantage of surprise. The attack will likely begin at night or early morning and will be backed by every conceivable western resource including jamming and EW to try to confuse and send the Russian side into chaos. But at the end of the day Russia has some important advantages as well, particularly of air power as attack choppers saved the day last time by strafing the attacking boats from afar and riddling the shores with guided missiles.
It's worth looking at a map and satellite photos to get a feeling for how precisely the reactors are situated relative to the river shoreline. The reactors form a row about 900 meters long running roughly from SSW to NNE. The northern tip of this row of reactors is indeed very close to the shoreline but the approach is like a funnel because the river makes a 90 degrees bend precisely at this point. Bottom line is, the most direct approach from the north is very narrow, all the more indirect approaches provide for some appreciable space to place mines and obstacles, in particular directly on the shoreline. Approaching directly from the west of the reactor area appears to be impossible because there is a large, almost quadratically-shaped water basin located there that's about three by three kilometers wide. It must have served to or still serves to manage the inflow and outflow of cooling water to and from the reactors. This whole thing is huge. The basin itself is separated from the river by two narrow stretches of land that form a 90 degrees angle against each other, pointing NW. It's unclear whether the basin was dug out when the NPP was built, or whether those stretches of land where reclaimed from the river. At any rate, it's not the case that the facility has a large open flank directly directly against the river. Further to the west, beyond the basin, there is a large area almost fully filled with green houses, to the east there is the town of Energodar, which has no shoreline and has now been evacuated, to the NE of the facility and to the north of Energodar, there is open space against the river, beyond Ergodar further to the east and directly against the river there are fields. In all southerly directions there are wide open fields. The only theoretical possibility of attacking the plant appears to be a suicide operation from the north to pin down the defenders, accompanied by flanking attacks to the west and the east. Helicopters probably won't play a decisive role this time because of NASAM. The Russians have EW on their own, of course. But it stands to reason that this EW won't be as effective as usual against types of drones that the Ukainians have held back. The Russians will place their bets on mines, lots and lots of them, not having to worry about civilians as Energodar has been evacuated, glide bombs dropped from afar and having pre-sighted the whole area with their artillery. Mines will slow down even the most high-end SEAL guys, in which case artillery will be able to be called in on them. That will at least be the idea. As for barges, they are impossible to hide. Can the Russians not destroy them all preemptively?
Speaking of Mines and Huge Barges, why not saturate the river with mines as well?
As for the NASAM's, would their truck based radars be able to lock onto a 'copter flying NOE? I am skeptical.
Active sonar easily identifies divers day or night. Once located, depth charges can destroy divers, no matter how top end they might be. Worse than the barotrauma from TOS-1A thermobaric rockets on land. If frogmen are the wunderwaffe of the next assault, it is also doomed to fail.
Thanks, according to how you have reminded me then; I have confidence Russia will make and take every available precaution every measure to keep this facility out of the hands of the maniacs
I’m sure if Russia can’t safeguard the power plant no one can.
Oh really never heard of that possibility with scuba divers, where did you get that from
Still gets me that the West's 'leaders' lunatics that they are, still get away with referring to it as supporting 'Ukraine' and so on.
It is Kiev Ukraine they are supporting and that is destroying 'Ukraine' itself.
Kiev Ukraine itself is sworn to destroy 'Ukraine' for it is sworn to ethnically cleanse the Donbas Ukraine which is to say, destroy part of the essence of Ukraine, a large number of its people, traditions, relationships, attachments: everything.
It is a Civil War plain and simple and Kiev is sworn to crush all opposition. Which you cannot see as 'supporting Ukraine' for its the murder of Ukraine and an attempt to install a 'new Ukraine'.
Not my idea is it? It is their declaration. Just like the Nazi Germans before them they seek to ethnically cleanse. That's no victory, no suppport for 'Ukraine'.
A living vibrant healthy happy Ukraine would have had 10 million Donbas Ukrainians living happily and healthily in it alongside their brothers.
Supporting THAT is 'supporting Ukraine'. But there's never any hint of that from these lunatic (mis)leaders nor anyone else.
Don't quibble and carp about 'Donbas is now part of Russia' for you well know Kiev & USA & etc. etc. do not recognise that for a minute.
When Kiev and USA etc. say 'Ukraine' we all know they mean, notionally, the whole territory of Ukraine, Kiev oblasts and Donbas oblasts, everything, everywhere, even including Crimea, 'owned' by Kiev.
And that means with Donbas Ukrainians obliterated.
So just using the word in that way 'support Ukraine' implies completely the obliteration of 10 million Russia oriented or connected Ukrainians. When you use the words that way you've tacitly eliminated them, dispensed with them, pushed the off the board, beyond consideration.
A lunacy and a crime.
Thank you. I appreciate your encouragement. It is much appreciated for we're fighting against an enormous wall of lies, misunderstanding, deception.
As for size it is all relative isn't it? To an Australian the whole of Ukraine, Kiev and Donbas states together, would fit comfortably into NSW. To them it would be internecine strife in a single state. Like New South Welshmen fighting New South Welshmen. And that's what's happening in Ukraine: Ukrainian fighting Ukrainian.
For nothing.
In the interests of creating a 'pure' Ukrainians state entirely free of any Russian heritage, blood, custom, art, science etc..
Even at the cost of killing them all. Every Donbas Ukrainian. Which we've seen Kiev declare.
Even at the cost of the dying of a quarter of a million Kiev Ukrainians, which we've seen.
Even at the cost of Kiev Ukrainians dying to 'the last man', which insanity we've seen Kiev declare.
The insanity, the illogic, is so great it is difficult to even talk about it. But if it were possible to 'succeed' in this lunatic enterprise - i.e. create a 'pure' Ukrainian state after murdering all your brothers and sacrificing the majority of your own population and instituting the 'ethnic purity' -
what then the 'purity', the moral state, the ethical state, the actual civilisational state of what you then have?
The insanity is truly staggering. Truly.
When heads of state stand up in public and declare they must 'help Ukraine' by fueling a war between Ukrainian brothers which is ripping Ukraine apart, destroying Europe, killing Ukrainians at an enormous rate one despairs of any rationality anywhere in the world.
When no one takes them to task.
Not the MSM. Not our 'intellectuals'. Certainly not our politicians. Not our educators. No one.
Not any one.
If you can help a little it would be truly important in that context I think. Simply add your little bit whenever wherever you post.
Perhaps as I do. Have your prepared text and simply copy and paste it in all about the place.
Then we're trying and that's about all we can do.
Have you read Kipling's 'IF' ? Famous old poem from way back. Very inspiring piece of work.
Has a line in it that begins: 'If you can keep your head while all about are losing theirs...'
I think that's what we need to do. Just that simple thing. Keep our heads.
One quarter million men have died in the cause of an insane 'ethnic cleansing' canard motivated by an American desire to ruin Russia and Europe in which, so far, they have been very successful.
Push back.
And have a good day. :)