Several days ago, an article co-authored by the two crown princes of pro-Ukrainian military bad-takes, the preeminent Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, was published by Foreign Affairs. It seemed too good an opportunity to pass up in getting a look under the hood of the current narrative from the two chief propagandists themselves, and what was deemed so important as to warrant an urgent Foreign Affairs frontage.
Great article, Simplicius, as usual for you. Thank you for your hard work! Please keep it up. However, there is a "typo" in the first sentence. I really think you must have meant "clown princes"
One thing about Russia's increased production that appears to have passed people by is that all those extra shifts etc will mean an increased number of Russians with experience of industrial manufacturing jobs, machining etc. This increase in human capital will have a future flow on effect to the industrial economy regardless of the outcome of the war, and is in marked contrast to the decrease in human capital caused by the West's off-shoring over the past two decades.
By not encircling Bakhmut Russia destroyed a far larger number of Ukrainian troops, over a longer period of time, and with far fewer casualties to itself.
“Well, because by encircling the city, you could have trapped a large number of troops and destroyed them.”
Anyone could have seen this happening over time, and they probably did.
However one of the Western goals is to slaughter Ukrainians so BlackRock and other investment companies can purchase assets for pennies o the dollar due to (1) hyperinflation, (2) fire sale of assets to pay for the war, (3) the need for surviving relatives to have some kind of cash from their estates.
The USSA's neocons, exceed the dictionary definition of "cognitive dissonance" by several orders of magnitude. I'm surprised these freaks could even walk after doing a human interpretation of a pretzel.
Ah nothing best A Simplicius article in the morning with a cup of Vietnamese Robusta drip coffee (the strongest coffee the Westerner can never bring themselves to drink because they accustomed to that watery stuff called expresso and americano or whatever they sell at starbucks, real man drinks Vietnamese coffee, black, no suger, no ice).
One thing i want to point out is that even though the US can print unlimited money and seemingly can produce unlimited amount of supply and war material. these Analysts nd the normal pleb seem to forget that the raw material to produce these things have to come from somewhere. Sadly, the US can still extort the raw material out of the poor global south countries buy using threat of sanction or debt trap by IMF and WB (luckily, these past 5 years or so, Vietnam slowly abstained from borrowing from these crooked international financial institutions to build infrastructure, we still borrow from ADB however, which is still a WB off shoot created by the Jap). So be that as it may seem, i agree with your previous assessment that the War will end when Russia end it and it will be far in future, fast or slow coming, i dont know, it will depend on how Africa react to US and EU colonial dictate to their African dictators.
Looks like Bakhmut is finally coming to an end. What sort of odds are you giving to Russia making a major offensive vs giving another city the "Bakhmut treatment". Like pushing to Servsk?
What do the commanders of the various US state national guards think is going on? Clearly their commanders are out of line w/r/t the Constitution let along marching the US into destruction. Enemies foreign and domestic, right? Just following orders, is that what they will say? I'll be writing the Maine commander tomorrow. And yeesh, I can probably get his/rer/their address pretty easily - unlike the Federales. Resign. That should be expected of any officer with integrity. Fat chance, right? That just shows how deep the corruption.
All the talk about a Ukraine Offensive seems to be a distraction...
I think more bad intelligence. My buddy is telling me that this is not an existential war with Russia because Crimea was occupied by Nazis??!! at one time. My friends are all willing to fight to the end because Putin is a war criminal like moths to the flame. These guys are in Na-Na land. The problem is, I don't see any road to negotiations until this caves. Lira said the Ukies will cave, and then Ruskie caved on Karkov, and I hope the Ruskies get him back as part of a prisoner swap. For a while it gets much worse before better. Watch for EMPs and falling satellites.
Thank you for the analysis. I had already glanced through the article but it was too much BS to actually peruse it. Better you than me! I would add that while the article urges continued military support, nowhere therein do they address the grim reality that the Ukrainian economy is now a complete disaster; completely unable to sustain a war effort, barely able to sustain it's citizenry, and no realistic hope to be rebuilt to its pre-war state. Russia on the other hand, while taking losses, is only getting stronger as it ramps up production and gains invaluable battlefield experience in the 21st century environment.
Reading all this I think back to one of the few things Obama said that was correct. Russia has "escalation dominance" over any NATO or NATO proxy forces that Ukraine could muster. Of course Obummer didn't coin that term, but he did use it properly in, I think, one of the debates against Romney way back in 2012*.
Here's how its defined in NATO terms.
* I could be way off on this, but it's my current recollection.
Good analysis as usual. This part worries me though:
'The fact of the matter is, the ‘West’, powered by the propaganda churning mill of inept ‘analysts’ like the above, will be in for a massive shock and rude awakening when they begin to see the effects of Russia’s unprecedented economic up-scaling actually percolating down to the battlefield. It remains unseen for now only because Russia continues to lie in wait, like a panther in the savannah brush, for the right opportunity to strike. But if these faulty premises are what the West chooses to continue operating under for their understanding of the battlefield dynamic, then the future will be riddled with cognitive dissonances and finger pointing the likes of which we can hardly imagine. It’s only to Ukraine and the West’s detriment that they so desperately downplay and attempt to whitewash Russia’s unprecedented industrial revitalization."
There is an eerie pre-WWII vibe to this statement and the situation. I'm sensing that when TPTB and their media in the "west" are ready to admit that Russia stands on an unprecedently massive military footing, we will be subjected to the full Putin-as-Hitler treatment and NATO will somehow engineer a Russian provocation against one of its members to "justify" the big European ground war these neocon warmongers seem to have nocturnal emissions about. I hope EUkraine is crushed before this happens, just because I don't trust the psychos in the "west" not to escalate past a point that they are unable to maintain control.
You have certainly reduced the number of sources I need to get a fuller picture of the war. Thanks for your posts.
I just hope Russia has fully secured the nuclear power plant.
Still gets me that the West's 'leaders' lunatics that they are, still get away with referring to it as supporting 'Ukraine' and so on.
It is Kiev Ukraine they are supporting and that is destroying 'Ukraine' itself.
Kiev Ukraine itself is sworn to destroy 'Ukraine' for it is sworn to ethnically cleanse the Donbas Ukraine which is to say, destroy part of the essence of Ukraine, a large number of its people, traditions, relationships, attachments: everything.
It is a Civil War plain and simple and Kiev is sworn to crush all opposition. Which you cannot see as 'supporting Ukraine' for its the murder of Ukraine and an attempt to install a 'new Ukraine'.
Not my idea is it? It is their declaration. Just like the Nazi Germans before them they seek to ethnically cleanse. That's no victory, no suppport for 'Ukraine'.
A living vibrant healthy happy Ukraine would have had 10 million Donbas Ukrainians living happily and healthily in it alongside their brothers.
Supporting THAT is 'supporting Ukraine'. But there's never any hint of that from these lunatic (mis)leaders nor anyone else.
Don't quibble and carp about 'Donbas is now part of Russia' for you well know Kiev & USA & etc. etc. do not recognise that for a minute.
When Kiev and USA etc. say 'Ukraine' we all know they mean, notionally, the whole territory of Ukraine, Kiev oblasts and Donbas oblasts, everything, everywhere, even including Crimea, 'owned' by Kiev.
And that means with Donbas Ukrainians obliterated.
So just using the word in that way 'support Ukraine' implies completely the obliteration of 10 million Russia oriented or connected Ukrainians. When you use the words that way you've tacitly eliminated them, dispensed with them, pushed the off the board, beyond consideration.
A lunacy and a crime.