I also wrote that Trump is playing for time to rearm Europe, actually militarizing the planet for a next WWIII or WWIV. He is NOT a Peace Dove what he trying to claim to be.
Putin wasting time? Doing what? His military is slowly, deliberately chewing up the NATO proxy army. What is the hurry? If NATO refuses to surrender, then its proxy, upon which its credibility and reputation rests today, will be destroyed. Russia has stated on numerous occasions that they are in this for the long haul, whatever it takes, however long it takes.
Those who claim the need for urgent action to put an end to this war must understand that to truly demilitarise and denazify this centre of nazi-infested Europe will take time and patience - Russia is uniquely qualified to offer just that.
Isn't a cat's paw another way of saying proxy? Anyway, I mostly agree with you as to the proliferation of nazism across Europe and that the US will most likely attempt to use another country after Ukraine. But using other countries involves far more than money thrown at them - it involves the supply of weapons, constant deliveries of ammo, and maintenance of a supply chain. The US and Europe have spent a significant portion of their existing resources on these in Ukraine and I seriously doubt that they could effectively equip another country for a similar operation. Of course, that is not saying they won't continue attempting colour revolutions to antagonise Russia at its peripheries as they did in the Maidan exercise, but that is an entirely different animal.
First the Nazi´s. From what I am understanding, they are actually being cleaned out in Ukraine. In Europe, they are coming to the surface and starting to be politically wiped out too. These people have been in the shadows courtesy of Occidental assistance since the end of WWII and that cover is now blown.
Proxies is going the same way. The Ukraine war is one point but, there are many others now that are also not under control. Gaza is at a temporary pause. Lebanon, Iran and Yemen are the same. China is moving forward with a manner that is going to cripple the war machine, both in the US and EU. And now Fotus wants to kick it off in Venezuela? It is off the rails and sure to crash. I was raised by people who were of the mindset that ran the country back in the day. Trump is a 1970s discotheque refugee and could not sit in the room with them for more than 5 minutes, without being chewed out and forcibly removed. We have leadership that couldn´t make third string. And I won´t get into much of what´s going on economically, in which and by the way something like 40% percent of economic growth in the US, so far for 2025, is linked to the stock price increase in AI related stocks. It is lunacy at it´s most grand. The opposition to the Occident is reading all of this like an open book and really beginning to crush them. They were ready a long time ago.
I get your point and we are close. I wish you well Elena. Have a great week.
The AMC has a bad habit of declaring victory prematurely.
By contrast, when faced with a setback, the neocons don't throw up their proverbial hands and say "well, I guess you guys won, fair and square!". Rather, they retrench, regroup, try another angle, but they don't give up until they get what they wanted.
Rearm how, with what? You've fallen into the limbo of Taco's imaginary world. It took the United States two years to clean out its weapons vault, only to realize it would take them ten years to refill it.
EH, The fundamental fact is that in two years Russia might be facing a rearmed opposition from historically very capable industrial nations. That is most of the European segment of NATO plus the USA as well. Russia has two major strategic choices here: Either just follow the present war of attrition against Ukraine or start moving to seal the borders at least on the Black Sea segment. I actually have no desire to second guess the Russian military strategists. The prevailing opinion there might be that the UAF will collapse before NATO can rearm. If that happens NATO will be looking at a very different game.
Fundamentally, industry is based on energy. You can literally think of manufactured items as being an embodiment of the energy used to make them. Raw materials such as aluminium, gallium etc are almost "solidified electricity" such is the amount of energy needed to make them. The best steels (used in gun barrels e.g.) are electro-refined.
For the last 30 years, Western European industrial "competitiveness" was completely predicated on cheap energy from *Russia*, now that they've cut themselves from that, industry is dying, *fast*. All other sources are vastly more expensive. To re-arm requires vast amounts of very expensive tooling up and worker training.
This is the NATO zugzwang. They *need* to dismantle Russia, so they can simply *take* the cheap energy they require to even keep what industry they have, but to do that, they *need* to dismantle their own societies, to accept the necessary war privations that feeding a sufficient military would entail...
Industry is based on two basic elements, in order: raw materials and the energy to transform them. We could add water. The EU has neither the raw materials nor the energy.
"dismantle their own societies, accept the necessary deprivations of war that would entail feeding a sufficient army."
Seriously, how will an army of frightened Amazons (formerly men) react on a front line against men with big balls?
During my years in the army, I learned the 1000 ways to die. The Ukrainian fighters themselves said it: Western methods of war are out of touch.
I would be careful to sign off on German industrial reloading. They have a solid record for well over a century to show. America, just might start a Lend-Lease-Energy program for them. That would be still a lot more convenient than fighting a war with the nasty Russian Teddy.
Historically Rome was a great power, too. These days, not so much. 'Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.' And those 'times' are generations, not a few years.
Something I thought about after I wrote that comment.... A black swan galvanizing event (like the attack on Pearl Harbor) can change national priorities in a heartbeat. Under those circumstances what was thought impossible might be doable. Undoubtedly Russia is aware of this and could be the reason for their reluctance to strike directly at NATO countries.
I think you should suck your finger and wait 2 years to see. I also think that's enough time for you to develop a critical analysis based on facts or probabilities that exceed 85%.
It’s amazing how many mind readers we have here. With different opinions. Which one should I believe? Instead, I think I’ll look at actions not words. This is slightly inconvenient as I don’t get to predict what will happen and feel like a genius if I happen to get it right.
Speculation and guesswork is ok as long as it is clearly labeled as such. The underlying problem is that there are mountains of classified information from all sides we do not have access to. I truly think that all data about major weapon programs is manipulated. They are building Tomahawks over 40 years ago. They load 462 on three submarines and they are telling us that the total number they have is 4,000. I am not buying that. I also think that US/Russian data about nuclear weapons is manipulated and presently all major players are building new nukes with maximum speed.
The US DeepState has fabricated the whole war scenario. They can cool the process, slow it if needed. They can buy or manufacture things a lot faster if they manage to push most of NATO and the homeland into a full-scale war hysteria. They can even possibly recycle rare earth metals from used equipment, throw away items.
The US MIC is quite happy to take orders for equipment that may eventually be built, just send that juicy cash down payment now, plus progress payments on the specified dates. Receipt of goods optional, at the manufacturer's whim.
Instability is one of the reasons you cannot make a deal for peace now with Trump. He is a man who lies non stop and has a very strong thirst for blood. He loves to kill Elena, it is that simple.
I truly doubt the Russians are using a go slow strategy. They use the strategy that on balance they determine will achieve their objectives in the best way possible. To you it may be too slow but they obviously have a better understanding of their resources, objectives and possible strategies.
Bombing cities does not win wars. One can do it as an act of revenge, like Dresden, Nagasaki, Hiroshima, once the war has already been decided. It is a bit immoral, but there is no morality in war.
Wars and other geopolitical manoeuvres comes down to the balance of power in the end. Today Russia is far more powerful than 3 years ago and gaining power by the day. Conversely NATO is less powerful today and weakening with time. I think you're getting bogged down in the details and ignoring the big picture. We are at the turning point in history where the Empire is collapsing. It's going to be messy.
A direct clash means nuclear war. That's why there has been no direct clash, only rhetoric. No one is that stupid, only NATO trolls trying to create fear, uncertainty and doubt.
The US doesn't need to implode, only to be distracted by other wars, maybe Iran, Venezuela, or China. Alternatively a defeat in the midterm elections might force Trump to focus on domestic issues.
I think time is on Russia's side - NATO was counting on this being a quick war, with Russia crushed by sanctions. I imagine the war will be 10 more years, with many more casualties, and the longer it continues, the better terms the Russians will get.
I thought the RAND Overextending Russia paper explicitly warned the US policy makers that the current situation could come about. Didn't the want the sanctions to collapse Russia quickly. Now Russia has taken the industrialised oblasts including vast natural resources and are advancing right across the front line. They are about to take control of the largest lithium reserves in Europe. Also they have given no quarter to Trump and his "negotiations" regarding Ukraine. There have been no concessions.
There are multiple avenues of approach. The 2019 RAND Corp paper propses: Moldova, Syria, the Caucasus (Georgia), Sanctions, Ukraine, etc. The 2009 Brookings Institute Study, Which Path To Persia lays out a path to break up Iran allowing the US to access Russia through the Caspian Basin. There are other RAND studies. The proposed alternative to Ukraine according to Brzenzski in his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard is Poland.
That is just some of the layered unending assault the West has planned for Russia. The plan wasn't that using Ukraine would defeat Russia.
It was the US designe to use Ukraine to weaken Russia. There is a round 2, 3, 4, etc. planned or to be adopted until Russia falls or the US gives up its obsession, which for some factions won't be anytime soon.
When looking in GDP terms, Russia has taken control of much more than 20% of Ukraine. Demographically I am.guessing it would.be the same (industrialisation tends to aggregate workers and families). Both economically and demographically Russia is on the up. Ofc Ukraine is in the flipside of this equation meaning the US and EU investors are very jumpy and pushing hard to turn this war around. Trump is obviously not part of that gravy train. Things aren't looking good for Ukraine and it's starting to show through the fancy PR.
The only other option is total war. Ukraine (really its western backers, everyone knows this project isn’t about the citizens of Ukraine) will lose if that happens, but so will Europe and anyone else who thinks it’s smart to fight Russia.
If Trump does give Tomahawks to Ukraine, realistically what difference would it make? It will not change or reverse the frontline realities it has only the possibility of escalation. That is possibly why the Russian president has played down the effect, merely stating Russia will improve their air defence. Not committing himself as he did making a redline against the delivery of ATACMs not realising how ineffective they would be. Even if they can be delivered in numbers there are not enough launch mechanisms to make a strike more than a PR win that would possibly have the US in a conventional conflict they cannot win. That may bring war to US soil. In the end who knows what would happen to US cohesiveness if a land that promises prosperity perpetuates destitution, destruction and possible disaster?
The Tomahawk is a missile designed in the 1970s. They have been used many times and failed as much times. As per Scott Ritter in a recent interview Russia has collected whole Tomahawk missiles from fields in Syria from strikes launched against Syria in 2017 that did miniscule damage. The Russians have lots of intelligence on the Tomahawk and theit air defence systems are tuned to defeat Tomahawks. Plus Russian electronic warfare systems are way superior to anything in the West. So the Russians have great capabilities to jam or spoof the Tomahawk's targeting system. Now why would US boots on the ground, attempting to strike Russian targets cause Russia to declare war on Ukraine and not the US? The question that should be asked is could the US defend against Russian submarine launched Kalibr, Tzircon, Oniks etc. missiles launched against US coastal facilities? Lavrov has already stated that the oceans are no longer a barrier to war against the US. The world should wake up to the danger the Ukrainian clown is creating to save his neck.
No one would want that, even though Russia has modern air defence system. Plus Russia would surely respond with more modern Sarmat 2s, Topol Ms,, YARs, Posieden etc. The he guarantee is the US would be committing suicide. Added to that any nuclear Launch by the US would initiate response from China, North Korea, Pakistan, and possibly India as who would know who the US would be targeting.
Well, every day some drone is making it all the way to Bashkiria and Orenburg, that is how well.
And yes, a lot of those have come from Kazakhstan. The magnitude of which problem is evident by the fact that even the cowards in the Kremlin dared call Kazakhstan out over it, even while simultaneously praising the Americans for being "committed to peace", just as the Americans were striking directly into Russia, though of course mere words were (who could have guessed it?) not enough to change things on the ground.
But not all of them, some do travel all the way to Orenburg from Ukraine, and so do the drones that make it past Moscow to Yaroslavl, Ivanovo, Kostroma, Kirov, Nizhny Novgorod, Chuvashia, Mari-El, Tatarstan, etc.
Sure, the vast majority do get shot down, but not all, as evident by the videos of burning refineries and factories 1,000-1,500 km from the border.
And these are slow non-stealth drones with the flight characteristics of WWI-era planes.
A Tomahawk hugs the ground at 0.9M and was designed to get around Russian air defenses, which, as we have clearly seen by the dozens of successful drone strikes, the US has well mapped out.
So this idiotic "It's an old missile, it will be shot down, no big deal" narrative is exactly that -- absolute idiocy.
The only relevant thing with the Tomahoax is the nuclear capability, same with the more modern but in numbers even more limited Taurus, and the need for US/German operators.
The nuke thing and Western soldiers actively attacking Russia aside: Even if all 4130 Tomahawk were given to UA and fired on Russia, that spells - conventional warheads assumed - 450kg combat mass per warhead. 1,858.5 tons, less than 2k tons. During the Vietnam war, between 1965 and 1970, the US dropped 4.5 million tons of bombs on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.
Russia fires about 3300 glide bombs with a combat mass between 250kg and 3 tons on Ukraine every month, numbers increasing, lately, 268 glide bombs were dropped on a single day. Additionally, an average of 300 Geran per day, warhead of 90kg. Ok, substract 1/3 as Gerbera decoys, still more than half of the accumulated firepower of all (conventional) Tomahawk every month.
Next, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, 200-300 fired on Ukraine every month, warheads comparable to NATO cruise missiles, but harder if at all to shoot down.
Not to forget artillery and MLRS and heavy flamethrowers Solstepjok, every round between 30 and 90kg warhead mass. there are several ten thousand barrels on the frontline firing some ten to few hundred rounds per day - each . Calculate the accumulated mass of explosives dropped yourself.
Point is: Which damage can the few thousand aged cruise missiles do in worst case? How many have a chance to reach and hit their targets?
Mind that even the Syrians shot down more than half of the Tomahawks fired on Beirut in 2015: https://t.me/bayraktar1070/5601
Thank you for so eloquently and precisely articulating the scale and magnitude of srikes and potential attacks with historical comparisons demonstrating the relative ineffectiveness of the Tomahawks if employed in the conflict. It will be successful in achieving another PR victory to convince the ignorant masses.
But you are wrong to doubt Trump. He received another title and the Hero of Russia star in a limousine (Alaska). Well, okay, that's how we joke in Russia. But there's a grain of truth in every joke. Our Donya! (that's what we call him).
Elena. IF you take the time to listen to experts: Tomohawks have been sitting in the USA for over 40?yrs. Except for some 'fiddling' by people who have no brain.
TIME IS ON RUSSIA'S SIDE: USA is disintegrating. Without earth minerals there will be NO more weapons from the USA.
In reference to history of the proposed “Putin-Trump Tunnel” over the Bering Straits at the Press Conference, many believe that the idea originated with “JFK-Krushcev World Peace Bridge”, connecting the USSR with the U.S. In fact, both ideas originated with 1850-60’s initiative of William Gilpin’s “Cosmopolitan Railway”. The Czar Alexander II and Abraham Lincoln’s Russia-US alliance vs French British in the Civil War was the driver, and sale of Alaska was a strategic move in order to accommodate this venture. Recommend you review Matt Ehret’s work below for a deep dive on this subject. https://canadianpatriot.org/2025/08/21/the-real-reason-russia-sold-alaska-to-the-usa-in-1867/
Just kind of curious as to what the train will do once it pulls into Nome Central Station? Everyone gets out and has a drink at the Board of Trade, sure, but then what? I guess Iditarod mushers making the back haul to Anchorage could carry some freight?
Exactly. Extend and join the existing White Pass and Yukon Rail route down to the Canadian Rail network and then all the way down existing routes to the Gulf of America. A port on the mouth of the Mackenzie River (the second longest in North America), establish a transport corridor along the river to join up with the rail network and you have a massive transport system from Shanghai to the Gulf coast. Plus another one from Shanghai to the Baltic Sea. (currently under construction)
Not easy or even likely but possible. It means going whole hog for globalization. The opposite of the current trend.
Exactly - Anthony James Hall - a long time professor at Lethbridge University talks about the corridor in Alberta up through the Northern provinces - of Indian land that could be created as a way for Alberta to become Russia - his substack is under his name. Anthony James Hall and he wrote a detailed article about it earlier this year. You know Alberta wants to leave Canada but I mean that's crazy if they get swallowed by Trump. Horrible. Not too many Albertans are free enough thinkers though to want to join Russia....OMG I would move there in an instant.
I visited Alaska in 2010, it reminded me in some way of my childhood as a military brat on a military base in the Russian Far East. We depended on the "big land" for pretty much everything. Same is now @ Alaska, if you didn't get your eggs today, you must wait 2 weeks for the next arrival. Maybe Russia could regularly supply the needed things/decent prices.
Well, it would certainly transform life in the north as well as change our whole notion of global commerce. From the South China Sea to the Gulf of America. From the South China Sea to the North Atlantic and the Baltic sea. And reverse. Rail, a new port and river transport system on the mouth of the Mackenzie River. Goods, minerals, agriculture products, Oil, LNG ....everything (that matters) from everywhere (that matters) to everywhere (that matters).
No. It would pass through one remote region to another. That is the whole point of a major transport system. The remote regions aren't remote anymore. Because they aren't remote anymore they get developed. It's called wealth generation. It will never happen of course.
Red White and Blue ties? Errrr also the colour of the American Flag? A red "Republican" tie could also be seen as support for Red China? Blokes dont think like that when they get dressed, They say I need a tie with that suit..and grab the nearest one without naked ladies or glasses of beer on it
thanks especially for the quote on the history at the end... very critical here to understand how putin and russians with a knowledge of history would see what is happening now in a similar light.. thanks simplicius!
Trump’s decision cannot really be taken seriously as he is constantly jumping around in a mud pool that he creates for himself. Two weeks from now he might start whining about how unhappy he is because Putin is not sending enough young Russian boys to be trained by Zelensky. Regardless, he established some records with his acts already: His primary goal is to preserve the Ukraine conflict and keep mining it for military, political and materialistic reasons. He also wants to gain the necessary time to rearm Europe. His problem is that the US geopolitical situation in Asia was weakened to the point of no return and the Russian, Chinese, Indian, Iranian, North Korean governments’ actions reflect a detailed understanding of the situation. I am not even anti-USA, I am simply a realist. The whole of the international structure is trembling at the seams and even gold and silver prices refuse to follow orders. Sorry for repeating this on and on: These problems go back to the 1970s Ping-Pong Diplomacy and the 1990s Russiaphobic exclusion of the Russian Federation from the Western world. The Western World, our homeland and backyard is being destroyed by you know (((who))) at the front of our very eyes.
You work out what Trump really wants (he doesn't give a fig about people dying all over the place- none of the psychopathic elites do.) He wants the No Balls Piss Prize. He could (likely) get it for ending the war in Ukraine. And he could do this just by withdrawing all support for Ukraine. that would force Z to the table to do the only deal Russia will do, but how to get Russia to the table to do any sort of deal the nutters in the west will currently accept? Hell, that's the problem.
In response to the threat of tomahawks, Putin said: that would be the end of any talks.
No talks, no deal, no prize. So we are having talks again.......
I think Putin said something to Orange that reversed the Tomahawk deliveries. Like: If you do this I will have to do that. A large part of the Russian military leadership and political class must be getting very tired of this long game without an end in sight. As a next logical move Ukraine must be completely sealed off from the Black Sea, at the minimum.
Naturally, an optimal solution for Russia would be sealing off all opportunities of weapon shipments to Ukraine. The Black Sea access would be a logical start. On the other hand taking the complete set of borders from the Black Sea, that is Romania, Moldavia, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland is a hard one. We are talking over 600 miles of defensive lines to be built there for the Russian army. On the long run, this border line could also come under attack from both sides, Ukraine and NATO as well.
What people don't seem to understand is that this "long game" is not Putin-driven, it is military-driven - the Russian General Staff is in charge of this war and directs its strategies, not altogether Putin. Russia is not, contrary to popular opinion, a dictatorship. Its governance is implemented by various technical groupings which are managed and given guidance by Putin.
We see a lot of criticicm of Putin by those who favour an enhanced military effort to bring about a swifter Russian "victory". However I sometimes wonder whether or not Russia is basically prosecuting the war - whilst not "a l'outrance" - then at least at the limits of its capabilities within what the Russian leadership believe represent tolerable economic, political, diplomatic and societal costs. Of course these limits are to an extent self defined. It could be that Russia though is making war is it can, and alternatives courses of action have not been pursued because they cannot be.
Well, maybe. However, Russia has amassed a huge inventory of weaponry and ammo in anticipation of a European war. They have also significantly increased the size of their military. Their economy is quite stable as is their political environment. I would, however, agree with you at the first of the war that Russia did not have the resources to accomplish what it later decided it had to do in order to secure its borders and therefore had to limit its actions until it could reorganise and re-industrialise. Also in support of your statement they do not have the resources to fully occupy a country the size of Ukraine, much less Europe - this would require full mobilisation of the country.
Victor, Generally, I agree with your statements here. On the other hand, I see a new, substantial factor emerging from the European segment of radicalized NATO. They are seriously pushing for rearmament according to satellite data on their military industrial expansions. Trump, by playing the Peace Dove, might be just playing for time, maybe two years to allow for larger scale weapon deliveries and a degree of mobilization in France, UK and Germany. Something tells me that the NWO Boyz will not settle for a clear Russian victory or maybe not for any Russian victory. When I look and summarize Trump’s actions this seems to be the direction he is moving toward. If the above described scenario plays out, Russia will find itself in a total ground war against well equipped, very capable enemies. In other words Russia might have only two years to stabilize the military situation or it can get far worst.
You are certainly correct in that Trump and europe have clearly and loudly declared their intentions. But can they actually follow through? Very doubtful - everything is against them. Regardless, however, Russia is nonetheless preparing for just that - and in their case, unlike Europe which is deindustrialising and the USA which has already deindustrialised, they are well equipped - economically, resource-wise, politically - to do just that.
Europe was always going to be a big loser in this game. It was baked into the plan. What wasn't baked it was Russia taking on NATO and winning decisively. Erik Prince's theory that PMCs are the future has fallen flat and a lot of NATO forces were killed in the collapse. What can NATO do to defeat Russia? Haven't they tried everything?
They can reload their own military industrial structure. This is what they are already acting on. Once they declare a state of war they can easily press their thirdworlders to work as the next option will be to starve or leave.
They may have said something as simple as no peace talk in Hungary if you deliver tomahawks, you first have to publicly deny tomahawks then we can talk in Budapest.
Putin does not have to do everything at once. He said precisely what was needed at least cost, to make Trump back off. If there are no negotiations there can be no peace and so no prize. and of course Russia will win in due course, which is even worse for the western hegemon, no peace prize for Trump and everything else going down the tubes. it costs Putin nothing to continue talking and it makes his allies happy. It does not prejudice military operations which continue uninterrupted.
Agree 100%. However, since we have no direct observation of those actions, we must rely on the words and descriptions of those who claim that they do, often anonymously.
Are their descriptions genuine, honest and accurate? Or are they also advancing a hidden agenda?
Few have the discipline to do this, myself included. We all have the tendency, I believe, to fill in the blanks of our knowledge. Like the brain fills in the blank space the optic nerve occupies. Once those blanks are filled in though, it’s very hard to tell if what we’re seeing is out there or something we’re projecting. The only way around this, I believe, is to be rigorous about what is known or can be known. Actions are out there. Our interpretations are in our heads. It can be hard to tell the difference, as we all must interpret. The trick is knowing that you are doing so. And that in any situation where you don’t have perfect knowledge, you can be wrong.
Trump seems crazy schizophrenic, but what if Harris were president ? America is a schizophrenic place, filled with lunatics. It is almost impossible to govern and the elites that govern it hate Trump. That is a sign that you should prefer Trump. 1918 Russia was filled with lunatics.
If only 20% hits target that would be already a serious blow to Russia. Large load of explosive, hugging terrain at low altitude, moving with just below 600mph, slow enough to be intercepted if located.
but from where are they going to launch them from, Ukr. has no subs and no carriers except those from Sugar Daddy, building ground units from the ground Trump will be playing gulf when they’re finished and his successor will he press the red button? Even when war has been lost or won, Ellison’s Oracle and Thiel’s Palantir won’t let off the leach and Putin who knows where to stockpile his Orechniks, his private garden perhaps?
20% of how much? of 2? Stupid answer you post there. That's what happens when you have large sheets that capture all the noise, you have to cut them from time to time to reduce the media noise and the social zeros
EH, If Tomahawks were delivered we would be talking many hundreds maybe even 500 or more. The US has supposedly only around 4,000 of these goodies if we count the older models as well. Although I find the 4,000 number must be on the low side as in June of 2010, in one of the dumbest moves in military history I ever heard of, three US submarines made an intimidation attempt against China with a total of 462 Tomahawks. For very small numbers it would be useless to go through the motions of training and logistics. If you were not stupid like a piece of brick you would know this without any explanation. The forum you are trying to operate on here was not designed for mental retards.
I may be a nail, but that nail might find nothing but emptiness when it goes through your skull. Let's follow your reasoning further: 5,000 missiles delivered to kyiv, but how many launchers, and which ones? Finally, if the US consumes Tomahawks like potato chips, and just for fun, what should their permanent stock be? Because frankly, firing 100 missiles at a target demonstrates the results of a single sound on a microscopic scale, or that we know that a handful of survivors will reach the target. This site must indeed be open to everyone, including the profoundly moronic, otherwise you wouldn't be here.
I won't go any further; you could still tell me the story of the Peloponnesian War.
EH, I wrote: ‘If Tomahawks were delivered we would be talking many hundreds maybe even 500 or more.’ AND YOU WRITE BACK: ‘Let's follow your reasoning further: 5,000 missiles delivered to kyiv,’ I think you have multiple problems with numbers and basic logic as well. Our conversation is over.
The US has only as limited supply of these. As Andrea Martyanov has indicated, it would take a huge number of these to disable and destroy even on large oil processing plant in Russia, much less inflict significant damage to the country. Low flying missiles are not an obstacle to Russia's S-400 as it has its own radar capable of detecting them at a distance sufficient to destroy. Russia is not worried about Tomahawks, but they must take such threats seriously as the Tomahawk is nuclear capable. On the nuclear issue, I understand that all Tomahawk nuclear heads were destroy decades ago under the Intermediate INF treaty, and that rearmament would necessitate serious and time-consuming effort. I could be wrong on that so would appreciate a knowledgeable response from someone.
Of course the exact number of Tomahawks is classified. Wikipedia reports there were only 4,000 ever made. The last official number, likely just after minting them and testing, was 3,800.
But if you kept track of the firings and losses over the years, you'd cone up with about 1,800 left. And maybe subtract 200 as 10% off the top for "too old to work". In that scenario there's still 1,600 left.
The war in Ukraine is very important to Washington, no matter how Trump acts like he wants to end it, downplaying it. He's a clown performing for the masses. It's an act. Through the smoke and mirrors, we can see that Washington wants to see this war to a Russian capitulation, and is committed to a victory.
What else is Washington saving the Tomahawk Chops for? For when Cuba invades us? Tomahawks are an offensive weapons. The only weapon that definitively defends the American homeland, is the ICBM. Nothing else is necessary.
So yeah, we've got at least 300+ Tomahawks for the CIA in Ukraine to fire on Russia. Anduril is supposedly making cheaper stuff for the American military.
The Tomahawks only have a certain shelf life, and it's rapidly reaching expiration date. Use 'em or lose 'em.
It's the reason nobody stockpiles Budweiser beer in their basement. Two years from now you'll have a lot of flat beer. Another words, Pabst Blue Ribbon.
Even 2000 tomahawks would not have a material impact on this war - There are not enough launchers to accommodate that many missiles and even if there were, they would be located and destroyed and most of the successful launches would be intercepted, leaving only a relative few to actually do harm. The fact is that Ukraine has already lost - nothing will change that - it's just that the politicians have not caught up yet.
Tomohawks might not be fired at well defended energy/military targets, but civilians. That would be easier to do and a big problem for Russia. Does anyone doubt they would stoop so low?
1991. That is when the nuclear warheads for the Tomahawks were dismantled per the IMF. Production never officially resumed. No official stockpiles exist.
Technically Tomhawks, while being nuclear capable, are conventional. There were inspections to confirm. Officially, Tomahawks can not be fitted with the appropriate nuclear warheads, because such devices don't (aren't suposed to) exist.
From the tone and terms though I'm sure you can appreciate the vagueness Tomahawks represent. There can be a world of difference between "officially" and "practically" or "actually".
From a conventional perspective the US does not have enough Tomahawks to shift the balance of the conflict. It can not produce enough to alter that fact.
It is a 50 year old weapon system that was developed during the 1970´s. The Russians helped Syria shoot down a ton of the during that part of the civil war, in salvos Trump launched ...... ha ha ha. They were something okay in their day but now? Not really.
Actually, as Mikey stated here recently, Russia never actually claimed to have shot down any of those missiles, having only stated that a large portion of them missed their targets (which brings up the question of their accuracy).
Syrian air defense at that point, was directly linked up to the Russian system. It was something the the Russian MOD publicly announced. Of course they would deny it. Do you think Russia would actually pass up on the chance to test their stuff against mass US strikes? I don´t think so. Believe what you want.
You might be right. But without evidence, you might be wrong as well. Obviously, Russia is not telling, nor is the US (except to claim that all missiles struck their targets).
Most of the downed were thought to be due to due to Russian ECM at the time. A lot of things happen, especially during the second strike. It was a much bigger dust up than remembered at this point.
Whilst the proximate cause of the SMO was to pre-empt a UAF attack on the Donbass, the fundamental geo-polical issue for Russia was Ukraine joining NATO and stationing ground hugging (ie non-ballistic trajectory) missiles there - leading to a severely heightened risk of a nuclear decapitation first strike. And all this in the middle of Intermediate Range Missile treaties lapsing. See Baud on this. So this is the absolute red line for Russia IMHO - the SMO was started to stop this very thing happening. And even if most Tomahawks were shot down, one getting through with a nuclear warhead is a risk the Russian's might not be prepared to take. Whatever the Americans might say, the Russians might just believe that the USA is trying to lull them into a nuclear decapitation strike. And who would be prepared to take that risk given recent events? And this is why Putin is getting such a level of criticism for publically (at least) playing down the Tomahawks.
So nothing to report. So fill 80% with detail of ground troop progresses.
Talking military pictures of concreting substations. It says that explicitly. Nowhere does it mention stations. Though it does mention 'sources', I admit. But 'stations' is the point.
You kill a 'station' and the substations are meaningless Substations can only distribute the power they receive from Stations which, of course can only distribute the power they get from 'sources'.
If you can't or don't want to destroy hydro electric and/or NPP etc then you need to get the stations.
So what is all this time energy and munitions spent on 'substations' about? It's a canard. It's a red herring. It's bullcrap.
Why doesn't that question get interrogated in 'our'media?
Next 'big thing' from this post: Putin in Alaska. He gave a rambling historical rave? Again? Like the one he gave we all saw before?
Worthy of half an hour's discussion. I can imagine the Duran could do three hours on it.
Trump needs some things spelled out to him.
If we take a naive 'military' point of view he needs military facts put to him that are clearly being denied to him.
If we get more adult and want to address his $400 billion dollar Zionist MIC cabinet then they need some economic facts pertinent to their own wealth and greed put to them (and I hope there are some that could be).
But another history lesson that at best only goes to 'prove' all Slavs are one and their proper governance is Russian is not what anyone needs.
Hopefully it can be written off then as Putin stalling for some reason.
Or: it has to be recognised as Putin's feet of clay.
Which would disappoint me a great deal.
And would seem to contradict a dictum I stand by most of the time: Putin is not Putin: Putin is a conveyor of messages put together by the top dogs of the Russian State.
Another 'off the wall' thing: I've recently conjectured that we can do our thinking in regard to Putin and Trump without needing to consider either man as individual realities at all. So much do they each stand for an 'ideology' - a principle, an attitude. We can just do 'thought experiments' and consider what would happen in different contexts if these two principles met.
One: the Safety, Pride and Future of the Russian State.
The other: the Getting of Money as Quickly as Possible By Any Means.
Given those we can theorise validly to our hearts content. Any proposed scenario we'd have the results of as soon as we propose it.
I see nothing in the reports of Alaska nor the recent phone call nor anything that is happening anywhere to invalidate that 'off the wall' idea.
Lastly I would like to remind folks generally that we are talking about people here, really, millions of people, living and dying. Though they never get a mention.
Thank you for the article, I enjoyed it. You hit the nail directly on the head with the use of the term loons in the beginning of the article. In my adult life, I have never seen such a group of well healed and educated chimps at the helm. I actually think things are worse now than under Biden. At least he was semi-unconscious and not a ( what appears to be a frequently drugged up ) fool, running around spreading more and more chaos. This is not going to end well in the slightest. Everybody whom is actually following it with some amount of dedication sees this every single day, although the vast majority of the public are deep in the clouds.
Thank you for your efforts Simplicius. May best wishes to you.
Everything is intentional. Even the fake meetings with Zelensky, the hugs and the vague promises. It’s all a diplomacy and political game where nothing is accidental. Simplicus loves to criticize Trump but the reality is that he got the Middle East sorted out and his strategy for Ukraine is the right one: no long range missiles, no more free stuff, force Zelensky face a harsh reality.
You call that team « worse than Biden » and yet the war in Gaza is more or less settled, and the war in Ukraine will be soon to. Stop supplying money and weapons to Ukraine and drag this out a few more months and you can be sure that total capitulation is comjmg. Did you notice that Zelensky stopped his ridiculous speech about taking over Crimea, recovering land in Eastern Ukraine or grabbing Russian land? Even that clown knows it’s over.
Trump knows that there is no need to speak or meet with Zelensky to settle. Of course, every visit by Zelensky to the White Houe is a clown show. A corrupt comedian shows up, asking for free weapons, money and missiles from the US president who promised peace. What did you expect?
TDS is real. We’ve had a solid ten years of propaganda; it worked. There is nothing more ridiculous that the luckiest and richest generation in American history, who sleep walked through the takeover of our constitutional government by spooks and foreign oligarchs, suddenly whine about having a president with the balls to put our country first. I don’t pretend to know what’s up behind the scenes with the Russian situation, that’s why this author is so valuable. Actual reporting. But even his knowledge is limited and we must all watch how this plays out. The one thing I do know is that both Putin and Trump are acting on behalf of what they perceive as their country’s best interests. I think an excellent argument can be made that the Biden junta did no such thing. Instead, that four years was the epitome of selfish shortsightedness that the boomers pioneered and Gen X took for granted. How anyone can look at the mess that America is now and put it all on Trump is beyond my powers of imagination, except that propaganda works.
C'mon man, you can't be getting caught up in the fake two party fight.
"Yeah it's not great, but what if the OTHER side wins?" is what both parties tell their voters and how the scam of American politics continues. You need to see them as the uniparty they are and reject it outright.
Trumpeted. Zion don is just the carnival barker for the Jew. The Jews are already going back on their ‘ceasefire’ continuing their genocide and Zion don is doing nothing. If you think Zion don cares about anything but his Jew masters and their illegal HQ you are the fool.
Because in politics and diplomacy, you also have to take into account the interest of the people who supported you and got you elected, while also taking care of the voter base.
He’s done the best he could, and when he realized the voter base was wavering, he pushed through that ceasefire.
I was not happy with Trump for two things: that obsession with Jews and Ukraine. He seems to be sorting both issues out now.
So you are Justin Leung the genocide in Palestine ? The USA attacked Serbia for nothing in comparison but that the Jew hates Serbians. Until the Jew problem is solved the U.S. will and should be hated.
The majority of Americans do not support the illegal Jew state. Or non white immigration. Or homosexual behavior. Or negro crime. Yet nothing is done because the Jew
You can’t deny that Trump has done a lot in that direction. Crushed illegal immigration, destroyed DEI policies and the woke culture & started fighting (negro) crime aggressively.
Let’s be real: Biden was the scum of the earth, a puppet and a retard. Trump isn’t perfect, but politics involves dealing with lobbies and influences. The Jews may control everything, but he wouldn’t have been elected without supports from all sides.
Now that he’s done paying them back the favor, he can finally shove reality onto everyone.
Israel didn’t win anything those past two years. The entire world has turned against them. They didn’t manage to pull the US into fighting Iran or any neighbors.
Ukraine got nothing from Trump, absolutely zero. Zelensky gets pretend hugs, but his regime is left on the path of total collapse.
you are curiously, and perhaps surprisingly accurate. America is so powerful, and Americans so uninterested in the world outside America, that the fact that Zionists extremely influential, and are actually governing US middle East policy bothers almost no one significant in the US.
Jews/Zionists are immensely rich, extremely influential, and majority of Americans do not feel it as a problem. I think this is a sign of strength,
In contrast, as opposed to Catholic Spain, or nationalsocialist Germany, America does not doubt its strength, and has room to maneuver, to accommodate, to let Zionist express themselves...
even Great Israel, even Giant Israel will be opposed by a billion humans, the greater Israel is, the mightier its army the stronger the deep rooted opposition...
Israel is no match to America, Zionists are not a danger to America,
In his own way, Trump is offering Israel, and Zionist a solid off-ramp, and a solid base to create good relations with neighbours.
It is not up to Trump to explain to the most intelligent nation on Earth that their first neighbors are, well, Palestinians...
Lee Kuan Yew said that fate Israel and of the Middle East, will be decided by two thousand Jews in America...
Lee Kuan Yew, once told an Israeli general that Singapore had learned two things from Israel: how to be strong, and how not to use our strength – meaning that it was necessary to use strength to get along with neighbors and not live in perpetual conflict.
As a final word: when thinking about Israel in the Middle East it is useful to bear in mind the following quote from Vietnam’s famous General Vo Nguyen Giap. He once said: “Palestinian people come to me all the time asking for advice on how to get rid of Israel. After all, we Vietnamese defeated both France and the United States. My answer is always the same: the French went back to France and the Americans went back to America. The Jews have nowhere to go. So you can’t beat them.”
— 🇵🇸/🇮🇱 NEW: Israeli forces have killed at least 46 people, including children, and injured over 100 since the ceasefire began through various lethal strikes, mostly by drones and artillery. The IDF escalated today with several air strikes
IDF soldiers have been observed on multiple occasions operating beyond the 'yellow line' of withdrawal.
Israel has prevented the opening of the Rafah crossing, and the entry of aid trucks, heavy equipment, and fuel has been limited to below what was agreed in the terms of the agreement.
Following the incident earlier today, the IDF's Arabic spokesman has started threatening civilians again, and Israeli ministers have called for a return to war.
Public transportation is an easy issue to show why the "Left" vs "Right" divide in America is fake and gay. Consider this: The left favors a strong public transportation system, but they also favor mass third world immigration which devastates public transport.
But what is the right wing (GOP) position? Not to cut immigration, but to defund public transportation entirely! "Having public transport is socialist" so let's "cut taxes".
What if instead we had great public transport and low immigration? There is merit to ideas on the left and the right, and a system truly for the good of the people would combine the positive parts of both. In America the two parties give us the worst of both worlds.
It’s more sorted out than it was under Biden, isn’t it? Would you rather have Biden, constantly supplying Ukraine with money and weapons and allowing Bibi to continue his massacre forever? Would you rather see wars with every single country in the Middle East than a temporary peace in the region?
Of course Israel will never stop harassing all its neighbors, but right now there is peace.
Axel, thanks for the reply but, you are spaced in my opinion. There is so much off in what you have stated, it is beyond my desire to reply to it all. And frankly, I don´t need to do so. Staying tuned to events in a few weeks will say it all anyway.
I can see your reaction is way to emotional, so it appears I hit home and dead center.
I believe that the public, although a bit of very ignorants in particular the camericanosos ones, the kkkka métricas, they start to have a glimpse if that same chaotuc circus they're in!
It´s true. They are slowly getting it. Their challenge is the depth of understanding they have about their true predicaments. It is also very tough for them to accept the pickle they are in. I know, I went through that process and am learning new things almost every day. It takes a long time, requiring consistency and perseverance because the information is constantly evolving.
Very true. It's surprising Ukraine managed to erect such structures before Russia, but alas, necessity breeds invention. Ukraine has far more necessity. Lack of necessity breeds complacency and laziness. But Russia has begun at least putting nets over some energy sites.
its astounding that they can get that stuff up so fast. I thought all the men were gone ? I guess the Ukrainians are talented folks. They certainly produce great Ballet artists I've noticed. But in everything. Its so fucking sad. And now this great land mass will be overun with those idiots with braids who throw poor little chickens around and rape Palestinian prisoners with broom sticks til they almost die and then take their organs for re-sale to other Israelis. Did you know that there are hospitals in the US that have entire floors of Israel only patients and that are only there for organ transplants ???? All paid for by the US taxpayers.
well...I'm not talking about the idiots who are Azov or Zelensky - there are alot of criminals in Ukraine. Corruption is through the roof but its a huge place and there were millions of normal ( if brainwashed ) Ukrainians living there that are basically Russian blood. Good at stuff. They're all dead now. A million of them and if Greater Israel makes Turkey part of itself that gets pretty close to Ukraine doesn't it ? My geography is not that great but I saw a map where Greater Israel and Ukraine share a border somehow. And in the Old Testament the Lord gave the Hebrew tribe permission to kill all the men and keep the women. That's what's going on in Ukraine. Possibly the great Dance School in Ukraine will not produce such great dancers as in the recent past.
Corruption is through the roof but its a huge place and there were millions of normal ( if brainwashed ) Ukrainians living there...
Sorry Ann, after being brainwashed, you are not counting as normal anymore because you act against your own interests. See the Trump voters for example, stupid or desperate or both.
but my point is that they have ( had ) talents that are indigenous to the Russian people - slavs - Putin always calls the men of Ukraine ' brothers ' and I have read comments about how long this war is taking because of the talent of the guys fighting for Ukraine. And they're all gone. Now the place is filling with the Chabad Lubavitch idiots - although I suppose you could say they're also eastern Europeans....but they're going to be lazy. Jews aren't known for their talents in the work force.
An extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.
While I'm prone to believe almost anything about Zionists and the American Taxpayer, I can't quite swallow this.
OTOH, for some reason I believe Scott Ritter when he tells me that there are Synagogs in Brooklyn that hold real estate seminars. A home has been cleared of the Palestinian animal, you can come and claim it as yours. Once there, a US taxpayer stipend will keep you well fed.
Israel controls US, so no wonder. Even now with Trump the leader being a non party entry. But then he probably did get lots of help from the Israelites early in his career and now feel indebted.
Trump is completely gutted by Israel like a inner-human transplant. He's disgusting and he thinks if he obeys them then he's somehow get off the hook for the Responsibility of being the President of USrael But he's the worst kind. Every president that they get into power is worse than the one before. I have faith that his future, and its not too distant now, will be bad. His mother if from the Hebride Islands - a very spiritual land. Druids who becaeme Christians - a holy land - and yet she married into the Jewish (east European) Mafia in NYC. And now Trump has even gone against Christianity . The Synagogue of Satan rules Trump from the inside out.
Luring Ukraine that substations are more important than the Powerplant so they spend times and concrete on these instead of bunkers at the front. No, Ukraine are at WAR, Russia is fiddling with an SMO.
I believe it too. The dreaded "Tomahawk Chop" is coming. Trump's refusal is simply a head fake. Everytime Biden or Trump has said that something is "off the table" it was really on the table.
From Himars, Atacms, F-16's, the Kabuki theater in Washington precedes it with threat, denial, then delivery of the wunderwaffen systems.
Trump is not a hostage to Neo-Cons, responding with 17-D chess, trying to wriggle from their dastardly clutches. He IS a Neo-Con. He loves war, the gloryhound has so big of an ego that he says without blushing he wants his face on a mountainside.
The post of him wearing a crown on Truth Social IS where his heart is. It's not a troll of his. I wish it were. BTW, I voted 3x's for him.
Now multiply this arrogance by the 1,000 other billionaires in the US. In the coming years we face an imposition of Oligarch Feudalism on us. Most of them will have Trump's monumental ego on them. We're getting a preview of what's to come.
My view is that Trump just pushes - and if he doesnt get push back, he thinks "well, why not" and keeps pushing. Trump challenges orthodoxies and I actually like him for that
Now, whether its the Chinese or russians, it is the responsibility of the other side to push back. Otherwise, you are indeed a paper tiger, dragon, or bear.
I guess I prefer the old "peaceful coexistence" style more. No pushing, confrontations, just respecting.
I fail to see how Trump is "challenging orthodoxy" when he is pursuing Neo-Con orthodoxy. There's nothing more boiler plate orthodox than what he's doing internationally. Instead of having it in low gear, he smashed it into high gear. He's no iconoclast.
And yet, the economy is humming along, he didn’t start wars with anyone (including Iran), ended the war in Gaza and soon will get Ukraine to face the music and capitulate.
1. Stopping a Ukraine war in the future (it hasn't happened yet).
2. Ending the war in Gaza, when there's just a tenuous ceasefire going on for about a week.
3. Going a whole 9 months without starting a war--a low bar. And that's if we accept that bombing Iran and summarily executing Venezuelans and others are not acts of war.
I am trying to make sense of the 1918 analogy as in that war Russia was soundly defeated by the Central Powers. Its army collapsed and the home front was wracked by revolution and division. I think what Putin might be trying to say is that had Russia lasted until 1918 or 1919 they would have found themselves on the winning side - but battlefield defeats and in particularly a weak home front meant that that was not to be. So perhaps his strategy is the prosecute the war in such a manner as to preserve his military and Russia as a cohesive society with a sound economy?
Well, if Russia is at war with all of nato and its an existential conflict, then stop calling it an SMO and fighting it like an SMO. It's a weird war on both sides tbh, its certainly not Total War. The rhetoric and the reality are quite far apart but over time rhetoric can become reality
Fair point, though I also wonder if Russia is trying to contain a wider shooting war. I recall NATO ran around 100 wargames pre-2022 modelling this situation, and every time NATO and Russia got into a shooting war, things went MAD. Every single time. I expect this wargame has been played by both sides many times since. Given the West (particularly under Trump) is behaving like spoiled chidren, maybe the Russia restraint is a sign that there is at least one adult in the room?
At what point then, does restraint become counterproductive? I ask that rhetorically, I think hardly anyone at this point believes that line hasn't been crossed
Agree with that. As do many Russians and others. By acting with restraint, the other side appears to be encouraged to escalate. And now we have Tomahawks.
Even before tomahawk, 24/7 satellite and ISR, communications, targeting, Storm Shadow, drones, Himars, M1s, javelins, I mean the list is endless. Tomahawks are just the latest freakout but they are in fact nothing special. The fundamental issue is that a nuclear superpower has become target practice for adversaries.
Life is not like a walk in the park in a late summer sunny day. It is difficult and war even more so.
Is it a sound policy to avoid extremes that could lead to a catastrophic general war? Yes.
Does restraint encourage the other side to escalate further? Yes.
Where is the point of diminishing rewards for restraint? I don't know. Do you?
Even when the function ends with a Russian or will a Western victory, it will be open to discussion whether the strategy of either side was right.
Could the defeated have avoided defeat?
Could victory had been achieved in a less costly way?
To my mind, the lone fact that can be established with a degree of certainty is that the American strategy of conflict with Russia, implicit in the Wolfowitz, doctrine is a complete failure.
Quickly and easily defeating Russia and then going after China to secure full spectrum domination for centuries.
But what if Russia survives and joins forces with China?
It will not become counter productive. As long as the west doesn’t get their regime change and balcanization of Russia, they will continue to achieve their goals. They will never stop. That would be defeat, that would mean loss of status, maybe even loss of job.
1918 Leaderships on all sides were mostly blind to the resources backing every nation, except their own.
Today, on one side we have Financialized Token Nations, flipping promises-to-pay as the glass backbone of their economies vs. a nation of extensive resources.
The nation with resources wins. The Parasite Nations lose. Period.
China and India know they are next. People like Trump are the best examples of why you have to remain/fight to be independent.
Well I'm rather impressed with what the Russian military has gained by NOT going all in. Putin obviously value human life and we all know attacks require much larger forced and sustain much higher casualties. Putin has with relatively little defeated the entire NATO USA and Ukraine with several battles being Ukraine doing stupid stuff for PR.
At the same time I think it's valuable to remember what we now know of the Russian economy and social structure could not have been fully known at at the onset. As far as I can tell from the outside Russia is now of a common mind, and that takes time. It could have gone the other way, if going to quickly against the entire NATO
A tangential comment to this notion that its a "weird war":
There's a lot of talk about all the lessons learned from this "near peer" conflict, the first in a while. Especially related to the dominance of drones and precision weapons over traditional amour, artillery, air power, and troop formations and movements. However, with much of Ukraine's ISR and other back end totally off limits for attack and even Russia's IRS and other back end subject to notable, but nothing yet close to full, attack, we should be careful in writing off some of these other military capabilities.
Modern IRS, when intact, removes a lot of fog of war, making traditional strategy and tactics vulnerable to drone and other precision attack, but if some of this ISR gets taken out, maybe big arrow pushes and other such things would still be viable.
---
I just ask these things, as a non-expert in military matters, out of curiosity about whether military experts are thinking about them.
Russia made significant mistakes in its war against Germany in the First World War. They fought in the enemy territory, in a way that was against Russian way of fighting a war.
Germans could move divisions by train. Imagine that, in 1914-1915.
Should have let them in, and depleted them, and only then counterattacked. Like they did with Napoleon.
Putin will not repeat the same mistake.
But, yes, he may make a new type of mistake. If he continues with his strategy, it may happen that significant number of Russian elites will think of him as Romans might have thought of Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus, acca Cunctator.
Still, Fabius won.
It is important for Russians to remain united. All this Tomahawk show, is directed towards Russian public, in order to sow doubts in Putin's leadership.
Russia has a unique opportunity, to fight this existential war as a proxy war, in defined space (more or less Ukraine, and corresponding Black Sea), against a defined opponent (a million strong army plus dozen thousands "volunteers", that has been recruited from a pool of 35 million population)
The price Russia has to pay, for victory, (and remember it is existential war, and, Russia is fighting for its survival) is to face enemy that has enormous support by NATO/US/West in intelligence, training, ammunition, weapons,
Pay the price and win conclusively.
Why throw it all away, and start a world war, that might turn nuclear.
There are rational heads on the other side.
They have been escalating, but not a single one is suicidal, not even Ukrainians.
Bunkering your power stations makes their repair and reconstruction almost impossible after a visit from a low flying господин Искандер, Mother Russia's ambassador in rump Ukraine. Juss sayin'
WW1 the last 19th century war of Kingdoms and Principalities. No bluebloods dying, but the men that died were treated like...well... Ukrainians.
Rows of geometrically arranged gravestones do not replace the families and communities destroyed by the inbred Royals who thought their shit don't stink.
That is a great post. I just read that myself. Matt Ehret is one of the best sources for anyone who wants to get a true understanding of how the British recaptured the US and pull our strings and also, how they are behind every trouble spot on the globe.
They’re not on the way, only naïve people like Zelensky believed that.
Put yourself in Trump shoes: you don’t care either about Ukraine or Russia, you care about being a peacemaker. Would you send long range missiles that will create more destruction, chaos, violence and escalation while not resolving the war itself? Of course not.
The reality is Trump has been sending NOTHING to Ukraine and only allowing NATO countries to buy stuff. Those same NATO countries on the verge of bankruptcy.
Simplicus is most likely completely wrong. He mocks Trump yet the war in Gaza is finally over, and you can be certain that Russia will finish off Ukraine rapidly.
Such wondrous clarity. The war in Gaza is over. That's hoping, not prophecy. Without war there will be no "Greater Israel."
Ukraine? U.S. resources are limited. For Russia they have to play the hand they have at the table now. Minsk 1 and 2 bought time for both sides to re-arm. Russia cannot and it appears will not, enter into another Minsk (3).
you are right again. The war in Gaza is over. Let me whisper a secret; Bibi will get a pardon, if the war ends.
The reality is Trump has been sending NOTHING to Ukraine and only allowing NATO countries to buy stuff. Those same NATO countries on the verge of bankruptcy.
Basically, Trump has presented a bill to Europeans. This is what you have to pay to continue the war.
To keep the army supplied with weapons, to pay mercenaries/volunteers, even folks commenting as psychological warfare operatives have to eat, to keep the society afloat, to pay all the pensions, health care, social care, energy, oil, gas, electricity imports...
Europeans do not like it, as it is quite a lot of money. It is at least 100 billions a year.
So, Europeans would like to steal the Russian frozen assets.
No, no, no,
Trump is not complaining,
Eu seizure of Russian assets will be a great help to dollar as the only reserve currency...
Part of the Alaska show, the next Budapest show, the Russia US tunnel, is exactly this - making Europeans present themselves as cheap crooks.
I do listen carefully to Brian Brletic, and I am certain that Russian leadership is aware of the risks, and dangers.
Still, Trump is being significantly underestimated.
Except, perhaps, by Putin. Putin did congratulate Trump on Gaza deal,
Tomahawks are coming? What are they going to shoot them from? Are the 'Muricans going to give Zelenski B-52s, B-2s, an Aegis cruiser, a converted Los Angeles sub or a handfull of experimental ground launchers? Nope.
I also wrote that Trump is playing for time to rearm Europe, actually militarizing the planet for a next WWIII or WWIV. He is NOT a Peace Dove what he trying to claim to be.
Putin wasting time? Doing what? His military is slowly, deliberately chewing up the NATO proxy army. What is the hurry? If NATO refuses to surrender, then its proxy, upon which its credibility and reputation rests today, will be destroyed. Russia has stated on numerous occasions that they are in this for the long haul, whatever it takes, however long it takes.
Those who claim the need for urgent action to put an end to this war must understand that to truly demilitarise and denazify this centre of nazi-infested Europe will take time and patience - Russia is uniquely qualified to offer just that.
Isn't a cat's paw another way of saying proxy? Anyway, I mostly agree with you as to the proliferation of nazism across Europe and that the US will most likely attempt to use another country after Ukraine. But using other countries involves far more than money thrown at them - it involves the supply of weapons, constant deliveries of ammo, and maintenance of a supply chain. The US and Europe have spent a significant portion of their existing resources on these in Ukraine and I seriously doubt that they could effectively equip another country for a similar operation. Of course, that is not saying they won't continue attempting colour revolutions to antagonise Russia at its peripheries as they did in the Maidan exercise, but that is an entirely different animal.
There's a little problem with the US and EU strategy of forever war - China, and Russia, control the supply chain for rare earths, TNT, cotton, titanium, palladium. https://dearscotland.substack.com/p/china-and-russia-control-the-global
Your on the trail.
First the Nazi´s. From what I am understanding, they are actually being cleaned out in Ukraine. In Europe, they are coming to the surface and starting to be politically wiped out too. These people have been in the shadows courtesy of Occidental assistance since the end of WWII and that cover is now blown.
Proxies is going the same way. The Ukraine war is one point but, there are many others now that are also not under control. Gaza is at a temporary pause. Lebanon, Iran and Yemen are the same. China is moving forward with a manner that is going to cripple the war machine, both in the US and EU. And now Fotus wants to kick it off in Venezuela? It is off the rails and sure to crash. I was raised by people who were of the mindset that ran the country back in the day. Trump is a 1970s discotheque refugee and could not sit in the room with them for more than 5 minutes, without being chewed out and forcibly removed. We have leadership that couldn´t make third string. And I won´t get into much of what´s going on economically, in which and by the way something like 40% percent of economic growth in the US, so far for 2025, is linked to the stock price increase in AI related stocks. It is lunacy at it´s most grand. The opposition to the Occident is reading all of this like an open book and really beginning to crush them. They were ready a long time ago.
I get your point and we are close. I wish you well Elena. Have a great week.
100%! Браво!
The AMC has a bad habit of declaring victory prematurely.
By contrast, when faced with a setback, the neocons don't throw up their proverbial hands and say "well, I guess you guys won, fair and square!". Rather, they retrench, regroup, try another angle, but they don't give up until they get what they wanted.
Once they get what they want, they demand more.
Rearm how, with what? You've fallen into the limbo of Taco's imaginary world. It took the United States two years to clean out its weapons vault, only to realize it would take them ten years to refill it.
And Europe is in even worse shape. The longer this war takes, the more profound their situation becomes.
Where the fuck do you live Elena?
I am in Europe: I don't know anyone who wants to fight.
The only way France will survive: Take out the OLD (moneyed0 system) and begin a NEW Republic.
The most difficult problem for Europe is not to produce weapons. It is to produce soldiers.
Doubt. There are rabid, always ready to "fight" Polish, they have also Romanians, etc. Don't forget Turks
We have no leaders in Europe. They all want war against Russia? Why? Because the 5th Republic in France has nothing left.
I am in Europe: Time to take out the old 'imperialists!'
EH, The fundamental fact is that in two years Russia might be facing a rearmed opposition from historically very capable industrial nations. That is most of the European segment of NATO plus the USA as well. Russia has two major strategic choices here: Either just follow the present war of attrition against Ukraine or start moving to seal the borders at least on the Black Sea segment. I actually have no desire to second guess the Russian military strategists. The prevailing opinion there might be that the UAF will collapse before NATO can rearm. If that happens NATO will be looking at a very different game.
Two years? Even two decades is optimistic.
Fundamentally, industry is based on energy. You can literally think of manufactured items as being an embodiment of the energy used to make them. Raw materials such as aluminium, gallium etc are almost "solidified electricity" such is the amount of energy needed to make them. The best steels (used in gun barrels e.g.) are electro-refined.
For the last 30 years, Western European industrial "competitiveness" was completely predicated on cheap energy from *Russia*, now that they've cut themselves from that, industry is dying, *fast*. All other sources are vastly more expensive. To re-arm requires vast amounts of very expensive tooling up and worker training.
This is the NATO zugzwang. They *need* to dismantle Russia, so they can simply *take* the cheap energy they require to even keep what industry they have, but to do that, they *need* to dismantle their own societies, to accept the necessary war privations that feeding a sufficient military would entail...
Industry is based on two basic elements, in order: raw materials and the energy to transform them. We could add water. The EU has neither the raw materials nor the energy.
"dismantle their own societies, accept the necessary deprivations of war that would entail feeding a sufficient army."
Seriously, how will an army of frightened Amazons (formerly men) react on a front line against men with big balls?
During my years in the army, I learned the 1000 ways to die. The Ukrainian fighters themselves said it: Western methods of war are out of touch.
I would be careful to sign off on German industrial reloading. They have a solid record for well over a century to show. America, just might start a Lend-Lease-Energy program for them. That would be still a lot more convenient than fighting a war with the nasty Russian Teddy.
Historically Rome was a great power, too. These days, not so much. 'Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.' And those 'times' are generations, not a few years.
"Rome was also a great power." It still is, and it will deliver the most modern catapults, from the time of Hadrian's reign, as Tomahawk launchers.
Something I thought about after I wrote that comment.... A black swan galvanizing event (like the attack on Pearl Harbor) can change national priorities in a heartbeat. Under those circumstances what was thought impossible might be doable. Undoubtedly Russia is aware of this and could be the reason for their reluctance to strike directly at NATO countries.
I think you should suck your finger and wait 2 years to see. I also think that's enough time for you to develop a critical analysis based on facts or probabilities that exceed 85%.
Not if China refuses to sell 'earth minerals!'
It’s amazing how many mind readers we have here. With different opinions. Which one should I believe? Instead, I think I’ll look at actions not words. This is slightly inconvenient as I don’t get to predict what will happen and feel like a genius if I happen to get it right.
You can look at actions, but then you are faced with interpreting what it is you just witnessed. At that point you join all of us.
Speculation and guesswork is ok as long as it is clearly labeled as such. The underlying problem is that there are mountains of classified information from all sides we do not have access to. I truly think that all data about major weapon programs is manipulated. They are building Tomahawks over 40 years ago. They load 462 on three submarines and they are telling us that the total number they have is 4,000. I am not buying that. I also think that US/Russian data about nuclear weapons is manipulated and presently all major players are building new nukes with maximum speed.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/462-tomahawk-missiles-china-freaked-when-navy-surfaced-3-missile-subs-once-207527
USA re-arming Europe!!!!!!
What with.
NO 'earth metals' for the USA.
Pitchforks and spades from the USA??????
The US DeepState has fabricated the whole war scenario. They can cool the process, slow it if needed. They can buy or manufacture things a lot faster if they manage to push most of NATO and the homeland into a full-scale war hysteria. They can even possibly recycle rare earth metals from used equipment, throw away items.
From what I understand: The only Country that can enrich 'rare earth' minerals is China.
It is a very demanding business with various environmental hazards. It was still a retarded act to leave it all for the Chines and now we see why.
The US MIC is quite happy to take orders for equipment that may eventually be built, just send that juicy cash down payment now, plus progress payments on the specified dates. Receipt of goods optional, at the manufacturer's whim.
Instability is one of the reasons you cannot make a deal for peace now with Trump. He is a man who lies non stop and has a very strong thirst for blood. He loves to kill Elena, it is that simple.
I wish you well.
I truly doubt the Russians are using a go slow strategy. They use the strategy that on balance they determine will achieve their objectives in the best way possible. To you it may be too slow but they obviously have a better understanding of their resources, objectives and possible strategies.
They could have bombed Ukrainian cities.
What is the point?
Bombing cities does not win wars. One can do it as an act of revenge, like Dresden, Nagasaki, Hiroshima, once the war has already been decided. It is a bit immoral, but there is no morality in war.
To do it now would be stupid.
Wars and other geopolitical manoeuvres comes down to the balance of power in the end. Today Russia is far more powerful than 3 years ago and gaining power by the day. Conversely NATO is less powerful today and weakening with time. I think you're getting bogged down in the details and ignoring the big picture. We are at the turning point in history where the Empire is collapsing. It's going to be messy.
That is the American way: You don't give a fuck how many civilians you kill!
Elena,
wish you well, but you are mistaken.
Imagine that you can choose which kind of fight is going to decide your existence. What would you choose?
If you are a judo fighter, you would probably choose judo...
Russia has been threatened with existential threat, but has been offered a choice,
a proxy war with NATO
an open war with NATO
What would you choose?
A direct clash means nuclear war. That's why there has been no direct clash, only rhetoric. No one is that stupid, only NATO trolls trying to create fear, uncertainty and doubt.
"He loves to kill Elena"
That's a bit personal. Are you sure he really knows she exists?
Look at his glee at the murder of innocent Venezuelan fishermen.
The US doesn't need to implode, only to be distracted by other wars, maybe Iran, Venezuela, or China. Alternatively a defeat in the midterm elections might force Trump to focus on domestic issues.
I think time is on Russia's side - NATO was counting on this being a quick war, with Russia crushed by sanctions. I imagine the war will be 10 more years, with many more casualties, and the longer it continues, the better terms the Russians will get.
I thought the RAND Overextending Russia paper explicitly warned the US policy makers that the current situation could come about. Didn't the want the sanctions to collapse Russia quickly. Now Russia has taken the industrialised oblasts including vast natural resources and are advancing right across the front line. They are about to take control of the largest lithium reserves in Europe. Also they have given no quarter to Trump and his "negotiations" regarding Ukraine. There have been no concessions.
Elena,
if Ukraine is defeated, aren't they defeated, too.
There are multiple avenues of approach. The 2019 RAND Corp paper propses: Moldova, Syria, the Caucasus (Georgia), Sanctions, Ukraine, etc. The 2009 Brookings Institute Study, Which Path To Persia lays out a path to break up Iran allowing the US to access Russia through the Caspian Basin. There are other RAND studies. The proposed alternative to Ukraine according to Brzenzski in his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard is Poland.
That is just some of the layered unending assault the West has planned for Russia. The plan wasn't that using Ukraine would defeat Russia.
It was the US designe to use Ukraine to weaken Russia. There is a round 2, 3, 4, etc. planned or to be adopted until Russia falls or the US gives up its obsession, which for some factions won't be anytime soon.
When looking in GDP terms, Russia has taken control of much more than 20% of Ukraine. Demographically I am.guessing it would.be the same (industrialisation tends to aggregate workers and families). Both economically and demographically Russia is on the up. Ofc Ukraine is in the flipside of this equation meaning the US and EU investors are very jumpy and pushing hard to turn this war around. Trump is obviously not part of that gravy train. Things aren't looking good for Ukraine and it's starting to show through the fancy PR.
The only other option is total war. Ukraine (really its western backers, everyone knows this project isn’t about the citizens of Ukraine) will lose if that happens, but so will Europe and anyone else who thinks it’s smart to fight Russia.
If Trump does give Tomahawks to Ukraine, realistically what difference would it make? It will not change or reverse the frontline realities it has only the possibility of escalation. That is possibly why the Russian president has played down the effect, merely stating Russia will improve their air defence. Not committing himself as he did making a redline against the delivery of ATACMs not realising how ineffective they would be. Even if they can be delivered in numbers there are not enough launch mechanisms to make a strike more than a PR win that would possibly have the US in a conventional conflict they cannot win. That may bring war to US soil. In the end who knows what would happen to US cohesiveness if a land that promises prosperity perpetuates destitution, destruction and possible disaster?
I really like your eagerness to end this War. You see what I see. Looming doom.
Russia may be steam-rolling at first gear on the ground but others are acting to make Russia accustomed to getting killed by more means than AFU.
The Tomahawk is a missile designed in the 1970s. They have been used many times and failed as much times. As per Scott Ritter in a recent interview Russia has collected whole Tomahawk missiles from fields in Syria from strikes launched against Syria in 2017 that did miniscule damage. The Russians have lots of intelligence on the Tomahawk and theit air defence systems are tuned to defeat Tomahawks. Plus Russian electronic warfare systems are way superior to anything in the West. So the Russians have great capabilities to jam or spoof the Tomahawk's targeting system. Now why would US boots on the ground, attempting to strike Russian targets cause Russia to declare war on Ukraine and not the US? The question that should be asked is could the US defend against Russian submarine launched Kalibr, Tzircon, Oniks etc. missiles launched against US coastal facilities? Lavrov has already stated that the oceans are no longer a barrier to war against the US. The world should wake up to the danger the Ukrainian clown is creating to save his neck.
>The Tomahawk is a missile designed in the 1970s
So is the Minuteman III
Let's have some of those lobbed at Russia too, why not? It's a free-for-all, after all
No one would want that, even though Russia has modern air defence system. Plus Russia would surely respond with more modern Sarmat 2s, Topol Ms,, YARs, Posieden etc. The he guarantee is the US would be committing suicide. Added to that any nuclear Launch by the US would initiate response from China, North Korea, Pakistan, and possibly India as who would know who the US would be targeting.
>Russia has modern air defence system.
Yes, Russia has those.
How well have they fared in practice?
Well, every day some drone is making it all the way to Bashkiria and Orenburg, that is how well.
And yes, a lot of those have come from Kazakhstan. The magnitude of which problem is evident by the fact that even the cowards in the Kremlin dared call Kazakhstan out over it, even while simultaneously praising the Americans for being "committed to peace", just as the Americans were striking directly into Russia, though of course mere words were (who could have guessed it?) not enough to change things on the ground.
But not all of them, some do travel all the way to Orenburg from Ukraine, and so do the drones that make it past Moscow to Yaroslavl, Ivanovo, Kostroma, Kirov, Nizhny Novgorod, Chuvashia, Mari-El, Tatarstan, etc.
Sure, the vast majority do get shot down, but not all, as evident by the videos of burning refineries and factories 1,000-1,500 km from the border.
And these are slow non-stealth drones with the flight characteristics of WWI-era planes.
A Tomahawk hugs the ground at 0.9M and was designed to get around Russian air defenses, which, as we have clearly seen by the dozens of successful drone strikes, the US has well mapped out.
So this idiotic "It's an old missile, it will be shot down, no big deal" narrative is exactly that -- absolute idiocy.
The only relevant thing with the Tomahoax is the nuclear capability, same with the more modern but in numbers even more limited Taurus, and the need for US/German operators.
The nuke thing and Western soldiers actively attacking Russia aside: Even if all 4130 Tomahawk were given to UA and fired on Russia, that spells - conventional warheads assumed - 450kg combat mass per warhead. 1,858.5 tons, less than 2k tons. During the Vietnam war, between 1965 and 1970, the US dropped 4.5 million tons of bombs on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.
Russia fires about 3300 glide bombs with a combat mass between 250kg and 3 tons on Ukraine every month, numbers increasing, lately, 268 glide bombs were dropped on a single day. Additionally, an average of 300 Geran per day, warhead of 90kg. Ok, substract 1/3 as Gerbera decoys, still more than half of the accumulated firepower of all (conventional) Tomahawk every month.
Next, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, 200-300 fired on Ukraine every month, warheads comparable to NATO cruise missiles, but harder if at all to shoot down.
Not to forget artillery and MLRS and heavy flamethrowers Solstepjok, every round between 30 and 90kg warhead mass. there are several ten thousand barrels on the frontline firing some ten to few hundred rounds per day - each . Calculate the accumulated mass of explosives dropped yourself.
Point is: Which damage can the few thousand aged cruise missiles do in worst case? How many have a chance to reach and hit their targets?
Mind that even the Syrians shot down more than half of the Tomahawks fired on Beirut in 2015: https://t.me/bayraktar1070/5601
Tomahawk is a paper axe.
Thank you for so eloquently and precisely articulating the scale and magnitude of srikes and potential attacks with historical comparisons demonstrating the relative ineffectiveness of the Tomahawks if employed in the conflict. It will be successful in achieving another PR victory to convince the ignorant masses.
Whether you use instictive thinking or clean, cool analyses, you are right in so much you write!
Time is not on Russias side. Instead four years has enabled:
* NATO to formulate a reason for their existence and a stronger nothern flank
* NATO to rearm and get rid of old material and technique
* A Russia accepting US/ Nato participation in the War without direct confrontation
* A Russia accepting attacks on their Motherland
* Western policy of unavoidable WAR with Russia in a couple of years.
Meanwhile Ukraine gets smaller and smaller, with fewer and fewer fighters.
Mikey,
are you American?
Nope.
But you are wrong to doubt Trump. He received another title and the Hero of Russia star in a limousine (Alaska). Well, okay, that's how we joke in Russia. But there's a grain of truth in every joke. Our Donya! (that's what we call him).
Yup. We've been through this before. The europeans will promise a statue and dangle out promises of plunder, Trump will fold again.
Elena. IF you take the time to listen to experts: Tomohawks have been sitting in the USA for over 40?yrs. Except for some 'fiddling' by people who have no brain.
TIME IS ON RUSSIA'S SIDE: USA is disintegrating. Without earth minerals there will be NO more weapons from the USA.
USA has NO money!
😍
In reference to history of the proposed “Putin-Trump Tunnel” over the Bering Straits at the Press Conference, many believe that the idea originated with “JFK-Krushcev World Peace Bridge”, connecting the USSR with the U.S. In fact, both ideas originated with 1850-60’s initiative of William Gilpin’s “Cosmopolitan Railway”. The Czar Alexander II and Abraham Lincoln’s Russia-US alliance vs French British in the Civil War was the driver, and sale of Alaska was a strategic move in order to accommodate this venture. Recommend you review Matt Ehret’s work below for a deep dive on this subject. https://canadianpatriot.org/2025/08/21/the-real-reason-russia-sold-alaska-to-the-usa-in-1867/
Just kind of curious as to what the train will do once it pulls into Nome Central Station? Everyone gets out and has a drink at the Board of Trade, sure, but then what? I guess Iditarod mushers making the back haul to Anchorage could carry some freight?
it becomes the B & R ( belt and road ) but for that Trump would have to make up with Xi
Exactly. Extend and join the existing White Pass and Yukon Rail route down to the Canadian Rail network and then all the way down existing routes to the Gulf of America. A port on the mouth of the Mackenzie River (the second longest in North America), establish a transport corridor along the river to join up with the rail network and you have a massive transport system from Shanghai to the Gulf coast. Plus another one from Shanghai to the Baltic Sea. (currently under construction)
Not easy or even likely but possible. It means going whole hog for globalization. The opposite of the current trend.
Exactly - Anthony James Hall - a long time professor at Lethbridge University talks about the corridor in Alberta up through the Northern provinces - of Indian land that could be created as a way for Alberta to become Russia - his substack is under his name. Anthony James Hall and he wrote a detailed article about it earlier this year. You know Alberta wants to leave Canada but I mean that's crazy if they get swallowed by Trump. Horrible. Not too many Albertans are free enough thinkers though to want to join Russia....OMG I would move there in an instant.
100%!
I visited Alaska in 2010, it reminded me in some way of my childhood as a military brat on a military base in the Russian Far East. We depended on the "big land" for pretty much everything. Same is now @ Alaska, if you didn't get your eggs today, you must wait 2 weeks for the next arrival. Maybe Russia could regularly supply the needed things/decent prices.
Well, it would certainly transform life in the north as well as change our whole notion of global commerce. From the South China Sea to the Gulf of America. From the South China Sea to the North Atlantic and the Baltic sea. And reverse. Rail, a new port and river transport system on the mouth of the Mackenzie River. Goods, minerals, agriculture products, Oil, LNG ....everything (that matters) from everywhere (that matters) to everywhere (that matters).
A One Worlder's dream come true.
Excellent point. Most people have no idea that no infrastructure has been built here in Alaska since the pipeline.
Our incompetent state government never added Nome to the road or rail system. To open regions for mining.
The revenue of the pipeline is used to build a huge state government that accomplishes nothing of value.
You confirm my impression the tunnel would merely connect one remote tundra wilderness to another.
No. It would pass through one remote region to another. That is the whole point of a major transport system. The remote regions aren't remote anymore. Because they aren't remote anymore they get developed. It's called wealth generation. It will never happen of course.
As for “Keg Stand” Hegseth, I'm not so sure he knows the colors of Russian flag among many many other things not falling under his "FAFO" Codex...
Which is true for most of Trump's cabinet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BttlRJnnx5A Nick Fuentes on Marco Rubio
Red White and Blue ties? Errrr also the colour of the American Flag? A red "Republican" tie could also be seen as support for Red China? Blokes dont think like that when they get dressed, They say I need a tie with that suit..and grab the nearest one without naked ladies or glasses of beer on it
Russia declines to surrender its security concerns to American nonsense.....You don't say!
thanks especially for the quote on the history at the end... very critical here to understand how putin and russians with a knowledge of history would see what is happening now in a similar light.. thanks simplicius!
Unlike the West which seems never to learn from history, Russia takes its history seriously and does indeed learn from it.
“The terrible thing is that it’s impossible to tear the past out by the roots. Impossible to tear it out, but possible to hide the memory of it.”
Leo Tolstoy: "Anna Karenina"
Trump’s decision cannot really be taken seriously as he is constantly jumping around in a mud pool that he creates for himself. Two weeks from now he might start whining about how unhappy he is because Putin is not sending enough young Russian boys to be trained by Zelensky. Regardless, he established some records with his acts already: His primary goal is to preserve the Ukraine conflict and keep mining it for military, political and materialistic reasons. He also wants to gain the necessary time to rearm Europe. His problem is that the US geopolitical situation in Asia was weakened to the point of no return and the Russian, Chinese, Indian, Iranian, North Korean governments’ actions reflect a detailed understanding of the situation. I am not even anti-USA, I am simply a realist. The whole of the international structure is trembling at the seams and even gold and silver prices refuse to follow orders. Sorry for repeating this on and on: These problems go back to the 1970s Ping-Pong Diplomacy and the 1990s Russiaphobic exclusion of the Russian Federation from the Western world. The Western World, our homeland and backyard is being destroyed by you know (((who))) at the front of our very eyes.
Every bout of mind reading says much more about the person who does it that the very distant object of his or her divination.
Putin has a wunderwaffe of his own.
You work out what Trump really wants (he doesn't give a fig about people dying all over the place- none of the psychopathic elites do.) He wants the No Balls Piss Prize. He could (likely) get it for ending the war in Ukraine. And he could do this just by withdrawing all support for Ukraine. that would force Z to the table to do the only deal Russia will do, but how to get Russia to the table to do any sort of deal the nutters in the west will currently accept? Hell, that's the problem.
In response to the threat of tomahawks, Putin said: that would be the end of any talks.
No talks, no deal, no prize. So we are having talks again.......
I think Putin said something to Orange that reversed the Tomahawk deliveries. Like: If you do this I will have to do that. A large part of the Russian military leadership and political class must be getting very tired of this long game without an end in sight. As a next logical move Ukraine must be completely sealed off from the Black Sea, at the minimum.
Naturally, an optimal solution for Russia would be sealing off all opportunities of weapon shipments to Ukraine. The Black Sea access would be a logical start. On the other hand taking the complete set of borders from the Black Sea, that is Romania, Moldavia, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland is a hard one. We are talking over 600 miles of defensive lines to be built there for the Russian army. On the long run, this border line could also come under attack from both sides, Ukraine and NATO as well.
What people don't seem to understand is that this "long game" is not Putin-driven, it is military-driven - the Russian General Staff is in charge of this war and directs its strategies, not altogether Putin. Russia is not, contrary to popular opinion, a dictatorship. Its governance is implemented by various technical groupings which are managed and given guidance by Putin.
We see a lot of criticicm of Putin by those who favour an enhanced military effort to bring about a swifter Russian "victory". However I sometimes wonder whether or not Russia is basically prosecuting the war - whilst not "a l'outrance" - then at least at the limits of its capabilities within what the Russian leadership believe represent tolerable economic, political, diplomatic and societal costs. Of course these limits are to an extent self defined. It could be that Russia though is making war is it can, and alternatives courses of action have not been pursued because they cannot be.
Well, maybe. However, Russia has amassed a huge inventory of weaponry and ammo in anticipation of a European war. They have also significantly increased the size of their military. Their economy is quite stable as is their political environment. I would, however, agree with you at the first of the war that Russia did not have the resources to accomplish what it later decided it had to do in order to secure its borders and therefore had to limit its actions until it could reorganise and re-industrialise. Also in support of your statement they do not have the resources to fully occupy a country the size of Ukraine, much less Europe - this would require full mobilisation of the country.
Victor, Generally, I agree with your statements here. On the other hand, I see a new, substantial factor emerging from the European segment of radicalized NATO. They are seriously pushing for rearmament according to satellite data on their military industrial expansions. Trump, by playing the Peace Dove, might be just playing for time, maybe two years to allow for larger scale weapon deliveries and a degree of mobilization in France, UK and Germany. Something tells me that the NWO Boyz will not settle for a clear Russian victory or maybe not for any Russian victory. When I look and summarize Trump’s actions this seems to be the direction he is moving toward. If the above described scenario plays out, Russia will find itself in a total ground war against well equipped, very capable enemies. In other words Russia might have only two years to stabilize the military situation or it can get far worst.
You are certainly correct in that Trump and europe have clearly and loudly declared their intentions. But can they actually follow through? Very doubtful - everything is against them. Regardless, however, Russia is nonetheless preparing for just that - and in their case, unlike Europe which is deindustrialising and the USA which has already deindustrialised, they are well equipped - economically, resource-wise, politically - to do just that.
Europe was always going to be a big loser in this game. It was baked into the plan. What wasn't baked it was Russia taking on NATO and winning decisively. Erik Prince's theory that PMCs are the future has fallen flat and a lot of NATO forces were killed in the collapse. What can NATO do to defeat Russia? Haven't they tried everything?
They can reload their own military industrial structure. This is what they are already acting on. Once they declare a state of war they can easily press their thirdworlders to work as the next option will be to starve or leave.
Yes, probably it was "If you do this, our conversations about anything is over".
Russian public opinion is starting to lose patience.
There is no way you know this
Look at Russian TV coverage, for instance. The tone is changing.
They may have said something as simple as no peace talk in Hungary if you deliver tomahawks, you first have to publicly deny tomahawks then we can talk in Budapest.
That is an excellent guess.
Putin does not have to do everything at once. He said precisely what was needed at least cost, to make Trump back off. If there are no negotiations there can be no peace and so no prize. and of course Russia will win in due course, which is even worse for the western hegemon, no peace prize for Trump and everything else going down the tubes. it costs Putin nothing to continue talking and it makes his allies happy. It does not prejudice military operations which continue uninterrupted.
Doubt that "there are kernels of truth to every lie," but the best lie is indeed a mix of truth & lies.
The best way to search for reality is to focus exclusively on actions and pay limited attention to words.
Agree 100%. However, since we have no direct observation of those actions, we must rely on the words and descriptions of those who claim that they do, often anonymously.
Are their descriptions genuine, honest and accurate? Or are they also advancing a hidden agenda?
Perhaps not so much hidden agenda as honest misinterpretation of what is observed.
Few have the discipline to do this, myself included. We all have the tendency, I believe, to fill in the blanks of our knowledge. Like the brain fills in the blank space the optic nerve occupies. Once those blanks are filled in though, it’s very hard to tell if what we’re seeing is out there or something we’re projecting. The only way around this, I believe, is to be rigorous about what is known or can be known. Actions are out there. Our interpretations are in our heads. It can be hard to tell the difference, as we all must interpret. The trick is knowing that you are doing so. And that in any situation where you don’t have perfect knowledge, you can be wrong.
Trump seems crazy schizophrenic, but what if Harris were president ? America is a schizophrenic place, filled with lunatics. It is almost impossible to govern and the elites that govern it hate Trump. That is a sign that you should prefer Trump. 1918 Russia was filled with lunatics.
Trump's problem is having to pick people to put in his admin, decisively more stupid than him. It is the problem of all weak leaders.
Trump might be someone you hate and fear, but what he isn’t is weak.
Weak is as weak does. TACO, mate.
Sorry my reply was lazy. But how else do you explain that entourage of his!
Are tomahawks even that good??
If only 20% hits target that would be already a serious blow to Russia. Large load of explosive, hugging terrain at low altitude, moving with just below 600mph, slow enough to be intercepted if located.
but from where are they going to launch them from, Ukr. has no subs and no carriers except those from Sugar Daddy, building ground units from the ground Trump will be playing gulf when they’re finished and his successor will he press the red button? Even when war has been lost or won, Ellison’s Oracle and Thiel’s Palantir won’t let off the leach and Putin who knows where to stockpile his Orechniks, his private garden perhaps?
It looks like Italy will be delivering refurbished catapults from Hadrian.
20% of how much? of 2? Stupid answer you post there. That's what happens when you have large sheets that capture all the noise, you have to cut them from time to time to reduce the media noise and the social zeros
EH, If Tomahawks were delivered we would be talking many hundreds maybe even 500 or more. The US has supposedly only around 4,000 of these goodies if we count the older models as well. Although I find the 4,000 number must be on the low side as in June of 2010, in one of the dumbest moves in military history I ever heard of, three US submarines made an intimidation attempt against China with a total of 462 Tomahawks. For very small numbers it would be useless to go through the motions of training and logistics. If you were not stupid like a piece of brick you would know this without any explanation. The forum you are trying to operate on here was not designed for mental retards.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/462-tomahawk-missiles-china-freaked-when-navy-surfaced-3-missile-subs-once-207527
I may be a nail, but that nail might find nothing but emptiness when it goes through your skull. Let's follow your reasoning further: 5,000 missiles delivered to kyiv, but how many launchers, and which ones? Finally, if the US consumes Tomahawks like potato chips, and just for fun, what should their permanent stock be? Because frankly, firing 100 missiles at a target demonstrates the results of a single sound on a microscopic scale, or that we know that a handful of survivors will reach the target. This site must indeed be open to everyone, including the profoundly moronic, otherwise you wouldn't be here.
I won't go any further; you could still tell me the story of the Peloponnesian War.
EH, I wrote: ‘If Tomahawks were delivered we would be talking many hundreds maybe even 500 or more.’ AND YOU WRITE BACK: ‘Let's follow your reasoning further: 5,000 missiles delivered to kyiv,’ I think you have multiple problems with numbers and basic logic as well. Our conversation is over.
I think you also have a lot of trouble with numbers and logic. Our conversation is over.
That's something to celebrate. I was worried about catching your degeneracy online.
Keep up the cope. If Russia or anyone else were to fire a few slow missiles at the US, we would not be hearing these excuses.
The US has only as limited supply of these. As Andrea Martyanov has indicated, it would take a huge number of these to disable and destroy even on large oil processing plant in Russia, much less inflict significant damage to the country. Low flying missiles are not an obstacle to Russia's S-400 as it has its own radar capable of detecting them at a distance sufficient to destroy. Russia is not worried about Tomahawks, but they must take such threats seriously as the Tomahawk is nuclear capable. On the nuclear issue, I understand that all Tomahawk nuclear heads were destroy decades ago under the Intermediate INF treaty, and that rearmament would necessitate serious and time-consuming effort. I could be wrong on that so would appreciate a knowledgeable response from someone.
Of course the exact number of Tomahawks is classified. Wikipedia reports there were only 4,000 ever made. The last official number, likely just after minting them and testing, was 3,800.
But if you kept track of the firings and losses over the years, you'd cone up with about 1,800 left. And maybe subtract 200 as 10% off the top for "too old to work". In that scenario there's still 1,600 left.
The war in Ukraine is very important to Washington, no matter how Trump acts like he wants to end it, downplaying it. He's a clown performing for the masses. It's an act. Through the smoke and mirrors, we can see that Washington wants to see this war to a Russian capitulation, and is committed to a victory.
What else is Washington saving the Tomahawk Chops for? For when Cuba invades us? Tomahawks are an offensive weapons. The only weapon that definitively defends the American homeland, is the ICBM. Nothing else is necessary.
So yeah, we've got at least 300+ Tomahawks for the CIA in Ukraine to fire on Russia. Anduril is supposedly making cheaper stuff for the American military.
The Tomahawks only have a certain shelf life, and it's rapidly reaching expiration date. Use 'em or lose 'em.
It's the reason nobody stockpiles Budweiser beer in their basement. Two years from now you'll have a lot of flat beer. Another words, Pabst Blue Ribbon.
Even 2000 tomahawks would not have a material impact on this war - There are not enough launchers to accommodate that many missiles and even if there were, they would be located and destroyed and most of the successful launches would be intercepted, leaving only a relative few to actually do harm. The fact is that Ukraine has already lost - nothing will change that - it's just that the politicians have not caught up yet.
Tomohawks might not be fired at well defended energy/military targets, but civilians. That would be easier to do and a big problem for Russia. Does anyone doubt they would stoop so low?
1991. That is when the nuclear warheads for the Tomahawks were dismantled per the IMF. Production never officially resumed. No official stockpiles exist.
Technically Tomhawks, while being nuclear capable, are conventional. There were inspections to confirm. Officially, Tomahawks can not be fitted with the appropriate nuclear warheads, because such devices don't (aren't suposed to) exist.
From the tone and terms though I'm sure you can appreciate the vagueness Tomahawks represent. There can be a world of difference between "officially" and "practically" or "actually".
From a conventional perspective the US does not have enough Tomahawks to shift the balance of the conflict. It can not produce enough to alter that fact.
It is a 50 year old weapon system that was developed during the 1970´s. The Russians helped Syria shoot down a ton of the during that part of the civil war, in salvos Trump launched ...... ha ha ha. They were something okay in their day but now? Not really.
Fare thee well Sam.
Actually, as Mikey stated here recently, Russia never actually claimed to have shot down any of those missiles, having only stated that a large portion of them missed their targets (which brings up the question of their accuracy).
Syrian air defense at that point, was directly linked up to the Russian system. It was something the the Russian MOD publicly announced. Of course they would deny it. Do you think Russia would actually pass up on the chance to test their stuff against mass US strikes? I don´t think so. Believe what you want.
Have a good week Victor.
You might be right. But without evidence, you might be wrong as well. Obviously, Russia is not telling, nor is the US (except to claim that all missiles struck their targets).
I thought they were GPS guided. No need to waste an interceptor.
Most of the downed were thought to be due to due to Russian ECM at the time. A lot of things happen, especially during the second strike. It was a much bigger dust up than remembered at this point.
Take care abc.
EW turned them into target-less underwater torpedoes.
Whilst the proximate cause of the SMO was to pre-empt a UAF attack on the Donbass, the fundamental geo-polical issue for Russia was Ukraine joining NATO and stationing ground hugging (ie non-ballistic trajectory) missiles there - leading to a severely heightened risk of a nuclear decapitation first strike. And all this in the middle of Intermediate Range Missile treaties lapsing. See Baud on this. So this is the absolute red line for Russia IMHO - the SMO was started to stop this very thing happening. And even if most Tomahawks were shot down, one getting through with a nuclear warhead is a risk the Russian's might not be prepared to take. Whatever the Americans might say, the Russians might just believe that the USA is trying to lull them into a nuclear decapitation strike. And who would be prepared to take that risk given recent events? And this is why Putin is getting such a level of criticism for publically (at least) playing down the Tomahawks.
So nothing to report. So fill 80% with detail of ground troop progresses.
Talking military pictures of concreting substations. It says that explicitly. Nowhere does it mention stations. Though it does mention 'sources', I admit. But 'stations' is the point.
You kill a 'station' and the substations are meaningless Substations can only distribute the power they receive from Stations which, of course can only distribute the power they get from 'sources'.
If you can't or don't want to destroy hydro electric and/or NPP etc then you need to get the stations.
So what is all this time energy and munitions spent on 'substations' about? It's a canard. It's a red herring. It's bullcrap.
Why doesn't that question get interrogated in 'our'media?
Next 'big thing' from this post: Putin in Alaska. He gave a rambling historical rave? Again? Like the one he gave we all saw before?
Disappointing, counter productive, wasteful, stupid.
Worthy of half an hour's discussion. I can imagine the Duran could do three hours on it.
Trump needs some things spelled out to him.
If we take a naive 'military' point of view he needs military facts put to him that are clearly being denied to him.
If we get more adult and want to address his $400 billion dollar Zionist MIC cabinet then they need some economic facts pertinent to their own wealth and greed put to them (and I hope there are some that could be).
But another history lesson that at best only goes to 'prove' all Slavs are one and their proper governance is Russian is not what anyone needs.
Hopefully it can be written off then as Putin stalling for some reason.
Or: it has to be recognised as Putin's feet of clay.
Which would disappoint me a great deal.
And would seem to contradict a dictum I stand by most of the time: Putin is not Putin: Putin is a conveyor of messages put together by the top dogs of the Russian State.
Another 'off the wall' thing: I've recently conjectured that we can do our thinking in regard to Putin and Trump without needing to consider either man as individual realities at all. So much do they each stand for an 'ideology' - a principle, an attitude. We can just do 'thought experiments' and consider what would happen in different contexts if these two principles met.
One: the Safety, Pride and Future of the Russian State.
The other: the Getting of Money as Quickly as Possible By Any Means.
Given those we can theorise validly to our hearts content. Any proposed scenario we'd have the results of as soon as we propose it.
I see nothing in the reports of Alaska nor the recent phone call nor anything that is happening anywhere to invalidate that 'off the wall' idea.
Lastly I would like to remind folks generally that we are talking about people here, really, millions of people, living and dying. Though they never get a mention.
Very good Arthur!
The substations are needed to energise the railways. Have you noticed where most of the strikes are occurring. East of the Dneiper.
the point is the substations need the Stations.
Useless. Too many assumptions and prejudgments without evidence.
Thank you for the article, I enjoyed it. You hit the nail directly on the head with the use of the term loons in the beginning of the article. In my adult life, I have never seen such a group of well healed and educated chimps at the helm. I actually think things are worse now than under Biden. At least he was semi-unconscious and not a ( what appears to be a frequently drugged up ) fool, running around spreading more and more chaos. This is not going to end well in the slightest. Everybody whom is actually following it with some amount of dedication sees this every single day, although the vast majority of the public are deep in the clouds.
Thank you for your efforts Simplicius. May best wishes to you.
Your comment is ridiculous.
Everything is intentional. Even the fake meetings with Zelensky, the hugs and the vague promises. It’s all a diplomacy and political game where nothing is accidental. Simplicus loves to criticize Trump but the reality is that he got the Middle East sorted out and his strategy for Ukraine is the right one: no long range missiles, no more free stuff, force Zelensky face a harsh reality.
You call that team « worse than Biden » and yet the war in Gaza is more or less settled, and the war in Ukraine will be soon to. Stop supplying money and weapons to Ukraine and drag this out a few more months and you can be sure that total capitulation is comjmg. Did you notice that Zelensky stopped his ridiculous speech about taking over Crimea, recovering land in Eastern Ukraine or grabbing Russian land? Even that clown knows it’s over.
Trump knows that there is no need to speak or meet with Zelensky to settle. Of course, every visit by Zelensky to the White Houe is a clown show. A corrupt comedian shows up, asking for free weapons, money and missiles from the US president who promised peace. What did you expect?
TDS is real. We’ve had a solid ten years of propaganda; it worked. There is nothing more ridiculous that the luckiest and richest generation in American history, who sleep walked through the takeover of our constitutional government by spooks and foreign oligarchs, suddenly whine about having a president with the balls to put our country first. I don’t pretend to know what’s up behind the scenes with the Russian situation, that’s why this author is so valuable. Actual reporting. But even his knowledge is limited and we must all watch how this plays out. The one thing I do know is that both Putin and Trump are acting on behalf of what they perceive as their country’s best interests. I think an excellent argument can be made that the Biden junta did no such thing. Instead, that four years was the epitome of selfish shortsightedness that the boomers pioneered and Gen X took for granted. How anyone can look at the mess that America is now and put it all on Trump is beyond my powers of imagination, except that propaganda works.
Your comment about Trump only applies if "his country" is Israel.
Biden and Kamala supported Israel even more. Kamala is even married to a Jew…
Trump does what he can.
No they did not. Even Benji has said that Trump is Israel´s best friend ever.
C'mon man, you can't be getting caught up in the fake two party fight.
"Yeah it's not great, but what if the OTHER side wins?" is what both parties tell their voters and how the scam of American politics continues. You need to see them as the uniparty they are and reject it outright.
And then what?
Excellent comment, I couldn’t have said it better !
Trumpeted. Zion don is just the carnival barker for the Jew. The Jews are already going back on their ‘ceasefire’ continuing their genocide and Zion don is doing nothing. If you think Zion don cares about anything but his Jew masters and their illegal HQ you are the fool.
Why not stop supply money and weapons to that illegal genocidal Jew state and demand iaea inspections of their illegal nukes ? Zion don. That’s why.
Because in politics and diplomacy, you also have to take into account the interest of the people who supported you and got you elected, while also taking care of the voter base.
He’s done the best he could, and when he realized the voter base was wavering, he pushed through that ceasefire.
I was not happy with Trump for two things: that obsession with Jews and Ukraine. He seems to be sorting both issues out now.
So you are Justin Leung the genocide in Palestine ? The USA attacked Serbia for nothing in comparison but that the Jew hates Serbians. Until the Jew problem is solved the U.S. will and should be hated.
The majority of Americans do not support the illegal Jew state. Or non white immigration. Or homosexual behavior. Or negro crime. Yet nothing is done because the Jew
You can’t deny that Trump has done a lot in that direction. Crushed illegal immigration, destroyed DEI policies and the woke culture & started fighting (negro) crime aggressively.
Let’s be real: Biden was the scum of the earth, a puppet and a retard. Trump isn’t perfect, but politics involves dealing with lobbies and influences. The Jews may control everything, but he wouldn’t have been elected without supports from all sides.
Now that he’s done paying them back the favor, he can finally shove reality onto everyone.
Israel didn’t win anything those past two years. The entire world has turned against them. They didn’t manage to pull the US into fighting Iran or any neighbors.
Ukraine got nothing from Trump, absolutely zero. Zelensky gets pretend hugs, but his regime is left on the path of total collapse.
Axel,
you are curiously, and perhaps surprisingly accurate. America is so powerful, and Americans so uninterested in the world outside America, that the fact that Zionists extremely influential, and are actually governing US middle East policy bothers almost no one significant in the US.
Jews/Zionists are immensely rich, extremely influential, and majority of Americans do not feel it as a problem. I think this is a sign of strength,
In contrast, as opposed to Catholic Spain, or nationalsocialist Germany, America does not doubt its strength, and has room to maneuver, to accommodate, to let Zionist express themselves...
even Great Israel, even Giant Israel will be opposed by a billion humans, the greater Israel is, the mightier its army the stronger the deep rooted opposition...
Israel is no match to America, Zionists are not a danger to America,
In his own way, Trump is offering Israel, and Zionist a solid off-ramp, and a solid base to create good relations with neighbours.
It is not up to Trump to explain to the most intelligent nation on Earth that their first neighbors are, well, Palestinians...
Lee Kuan Yew said that fate Israel and of the Middle East, will be decided by two thousand Jews in America...
Lee Kuan Yew, once told an Israeli general that Singapore had learned two things from Israel: how to be strong, and how not to use our strength – meaning that it was necessary to use strength to get along with neighbors and not live in perpetual conflict.
As a final word: when thinking about Israel in the Middle East it is useful to bear in mind the following quote from Vietnam’s famous General Vo Nguyen Giap. He once said: “Palestinian people come to me all the time asking for advice on how to get rid of Israel. After all, we Vietnamese defeated both France and the United States. My answer is always the same: the French went back to France and the Americans went back to America. The Jews have nowhere to go. So you can’t beat them.”
come now - Biden was the scum of the earth, a puppet and a retard of the jew - same as Zion don. but biden did not bomb iran....
when zion don is gone do expect the the USA will be any whiter?
we will just have weird vance (with his jew Chief of Staff) along with vance's street shitter family and infinite pajeets
zion don completely supports DEI policies for jews.
Jews Granted Minority Status By U.S. Department Of Commerce, Opening Access To Billions In Benefits
https://www.kahntaxlaw.com/jews-granted-minority-status-by-u-s-department-of-commerce-opening-access-to-billions-in-benefits/
Really now. What has Zion done actually done for the white trumptards that voted him in?
— 🇵🇸/🇮🇱 NEW: Israeli forces have killed at least 46 people, including children, and injured over 100 since the ceasefire began through various lethal strikes, mostly by drones and artillery. The IDF escalated today with several air strikes
IDF soldiers have been observed on multiple occasions operating beyond the 'yellow line' of withdrawal.
Israel has prevented the opening of the Rafah crossing, and the entry of aid trucks, heavy equipment, and fuel has been limited to below what was agreed in the terms of the agreement.
Following the incident earlier today, the IDF's Arabic spokesman has started threatening civilians again, and Israeli ministers have called for a return to war.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Public transportation is an easy issue to show why the "Left" vs "Right" divide in America is fake and gay. Consider this: The left favors a strong public transportation system, but they also favor mass third world immigration which devastates public transport.
But what is the right wing (GOP) position? Not to cut immigration, but to defund public transportation entirely! "Having public transport is socialist" so let's "cut taxes".
What if instead we had great public transport and low immigration? There is merit to ideas on the left and the right, and a system truly for the good of the people would combine the positive parts of both. In America the two parties give us the worst of both worlds.
I totally agree with your comment this time!
The system is obviously disfunctional.
I am as conservative as it gets and yet would love a fully functional and efficient public transport system like we have in large European cities.
The middle East is now sorted out? I sometimes wish I had such a simplistic view of the world. Maybe I really am too cynical.
By "sorted out" they mean:
1. A brief pause to collect PR points and accolades in the rest of the world
2. Create a wide sanitary corridor inside Gaza to replace the old one in Israel
3. Regroup and plan for the next phase of the Oded Yinon Plan.
It’s more sorted out than it was under Biden, isn’t it? Would you rather have Biden, constantly supplying Ukraine with money and weapons and allowing Bibi to continue his massacre forever? Would you rather see wars with every single country in the Middle East than a temporary peace in the region?
Of course Israel will never stop harassing all its neighbors, but right now there is peace.
Axel, thanks for the reply but, you are spaced in my opinion. There is so much off in what you have stated, it is beyond my desire to reply to it all. And frankly, I don´t need to do so. Staying tuned to events in a few weeks will say it all anyway.
I can see your reaction is way to emotional, so it appears I hit home and dead center.
Have a great week, fare thee well.
I believe that the public, although a bit of very ignorants in particular the camericanosos ones, the kkkka métricas, they start to have a glimpse if that same chaotuc circus they're in!
It´s true. They are slowly getting it. Their challenge is the depth of understanding they have about their true predicaments. It is also very tough for them to accept the pickle they are in. I know, I went through that process and am learning new things almost every day. It takes a long time, requiring consistency and perseverance because the information is constantly evolving.
I wish well to you Maria.
Excellent report!
Re: tomahawks, I am more or less certain they are still on the way, trump just realised he needs some time, this is misdirection
Re: the fortified elec station, that looks drone-proof, needs proper missiles now. Impressive and the russians can learn something
Re: the war. If this war is as crucial as 1918, then fight it like its 1918.
Very true. It's surprising Ukraine managed to erect such structures before Russia, but alas, necessity breeds invention. Ukraine has far more necessity. Lack of necessity breeds complacency and laziness. But Russia has begun at least putting nets over some energy sites.
its astounding that they can get that stuff up so fast. I thought all the men were gone ? I guess the Ukrainians are talented folks. They certainly produce great Ballet artists I've noticed. But in everything. Its so fucking sad. And now this great land mass will be overun with those idiots with braids who throw poor little chickens around and rape Palestinian prisoners with broom sticks til they almost die and then take their organs for re-sale to other Israelis. Did you know that there are hospitals in the US that have entire floors of Israel only patients and that are only there for organ transplants ???? All paid for by the US taxpayers.
They have built a small concrete cube man. No need for any talent
well...I'm not talking about the idiots who are Azov or Zelensky - there are alot of criminals in Ukraine. Corruption is through the roof but its a huge place and there were millions of normal ( if brainwashed ) Ukrainians living there that are basically Russian blood. Good at stuff. They're all dead now. A million of them and if Greater Israel makes Turkey part of itself that gets pretty close to Ukraine doesn't it ? My geography is not that great but I saw a map where Greater Israel and Ukraine share a border somehow. And in the Old Testament the Lord gave the Hebrew tribe permission to kill all the men and keep the women. That's what's going on in Ukraine. Possibly the great Dance School in Ukraine will not produce such great dancers as in the recent past.
Corruption is through the roof but its a huge place and there were millions of normal ( if brainwashed ) Ukrainians living there...
Sorry Ann, after being brainwashed, you are not counting as normal anymore because you act against your own interests. See the Trump voters for example, stupid or desperate or both.
but my point is that they have ( had ) talents that are indigenous to the Russian people - slavs - Putin always calls the men of Ukraine ' brothers ' and I have read comments about how long this war is taking because of the talent of the guys fighting for Ukraine. And they're all gone. Now the place is filling with the Chabad Lubavitch idiots - although I suppose you could say they're also eastern Europeans....but they're going to be lazy. Jews aren't known for their talents in the work force.
Tell me, Frank, what country can you name who's leader represents the interest of the people of the nation?
Nobody dances like Israel.
Concrete is readily knocked down with the right ordnance. After that, hundreds of tons of rubble will need to be moved before repairs can be done.
Nothing...is cost free. So the concrete will lengthen the time Ukraine is out of juice.
Would you, as a true zionist, want the liver or kidney of a subhuman?
/dark sarcasm off
An extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.
While I'm prone to believe almost anything about Zionists and the American Taxpayer, I can't quite swallow this.
OTOH, for some reason I believe Scott Ritter when he tells me that there are Synagogs in Brooklyn that hold real estate seminars. A home has been cleared of the Palestinian animal, you can come and claim it as yours. Once there, a US taxpayer stipend will keep you well fed.
Why do I believe this?
I watched a bitchute video of a nurse who got a job unsuspectingly on one of those floors. I should have saved it.
Yeah, I have that problem all the time. Great stuff just gets memory holed.
Israel controls US, so no wonder. Even now with Trump the leader being a non party entry. But then he probably did get lots of help from the Israelites early in his career and now feel indebted.
Trump is completely gutted by Israel like a inner-human transplant. He's disgusting and he thinks if he obeys them then he's somehow get off the hook for the Responsibility of being the President of USrael But he's the worst kind. Every president that they get into power is worse than the one before. I have faith that his future, and its not too distant now, will be bad. His mother if from the Hebride Islands - a very spiritual land. Druids who becaeme Christians - a holy land - and yet she married into the Jewish (east European) Mafia in NYC. And now Trump has even gone against Christianity . The Synagogue of Satan rules Trump from the inside out.
Spot on Ann!
thanks John "JohnNY.K" Kaeser
There were already protection nets above parts of the Konakovo power plant in June 2023.
5D-chess again…?
Luring Ukraine that substations are more important than the Powerplant so they spend times and concrete on these instead of bunkers at the front. No, Ukraine are at WAR, Russia is fiddling with an SMO.
I believe it too. The dreaded "Tomahawk Chop" is coming. Trump's refusal is simply a head fake. Everytime Biden or Trump has said that something is "off the table" it was really on the table.
From Himars, Atacms, F-16's, the Kabuki theater in Washington precedes it with threat, denial, then delivery of the wunderwaffen systems.
Trump is not a hostage to Neo-Cons, responding with 17-D chess, trying to wriggle from their dastardly clutches. He IS a Neo-Con. He loves war, the gloryhound has so big of an ego that he says without blushing he wants his face on a mountainside.
The post of him wearing a crown on Truth Social IS where his heart is. It's not a troll of his. I wish it were. BTW, I voted 3x's for him.
Now multiply this arrogance by the 1,000 other billionaires in the US. In the coming years we face an imposition of Oligarch Feudalism on us. Most of them will have Trump's monumental ego on them. We're getting a preview of what's to come.
My view is that Trump just pushes - and if he doesnt get push back, he thinks "well, why not" and keeps pushing. Trump challenges orthodoxies and I actually like him for that
Now, whether its the Chinese or russians, it is the responsibility of the other side to push back. Otherwise, you are indeed a paper tiger, dragon, or bear.
I guess I prefer the old "peaceful coexistence" style more. No pushing, confrontations, just respecting.
I fail to see how Trump is "challenging orthodoxy" when he is pursuing Neo-Con orthodoxy. There's nothing more boiler plate orthodox than what he's doing internationally. Instead of having it in low gear, he smashed it into high gear. He's no iconoclast.
"peaceful coexistence" = multi-polarity = BRICS
Trump is neither a master strategist nor a neocon. He is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Anyway, we've been through this "will they won't they" kabuki how many times already?
In the end, they always do.
And yet, the economy is humming along, he didn’t start wars with anyone (including Iran), ended the war in Gaza and soon will get Ukraine to face the music and capitulate.
I’d say that he’s not so bad after all!
I wouldn't say the economy is humming along, but whatever you have to tell yourself to justify your hero.
In addition, Axel gives Trump credit for:
1. Stopping a Ukraine war in the future (it hasn't happened yet).
2. Ending the war in Gaza, when there's just a tenuous ceasefire going on for about a week.
3. Going a whole 9 months without starting a war--a low bar. And that's if we accept that bombing Iran and summarily executing Venezuelans and others are not acts of war.
I wasn't going to mention starting a war on Iran or killing Venezuelan fishermen for funsies.
Just what kind of a delusional bubble do you live in?
Yes. Zion don is a Jew tool.
I am trying to make sense of the 1918 analogy as in that war Russia was soundly defeated by the Central Powers. Its army collapsed and the home front was wracked by revolution and division. I think what Putin might be trying to say is that had Russia lasted until 1918 or 1919 they would have found themselves on the winning side - but battlefield defeats and in particularly a weak home front meant that that was not to be. So perhaps his strategy is the prosecute the war in such a manner as to preserve his military and Russia as a cohesive society with a sound economy?
Well, if Russia is at war with all of nato and its an existential conflict, then stop calling it an SMO and fighting it like an SMO. It's a weird war on both sides tbh, its certainly not Total War. The rhetoric and the reality are quite far apart but over time rhetoric can become reality
Fair point, though I also wonder if Russia is trying to contain a wider shooting war. I recall NATO ran around 100 wargames pre-2022 modelling this situation, and every time NATO and Russia got into a shooting war, things went MAD. Every single time. I expect this wargame has been played by both sides many times since. Given the West (particularly under Trump) is behaving like spoiled chidren, maybe the Russia restraint is a sign that there is at least one adult in the room?
At what point then, does restraint become counterproductive? I ask that rhetorically, I think hardly anyone at this point believes that line hasn't been crossed
Agree with that. As do many Russians and others. By acting with restraint, the other side appears to be encouraged to escalate. And now we have Tomahawks.
Even before tomahawk, 24/7 satellite and ISR, communications, targeting, Storm Shadow, drones, Himars, M1s, javelins, I mean the list is endless. Tomahawks are just the latest freakout but they are in fact nothing special. The fundamental issue is that a nuclear superpower has become target practice for adversaries.
Did I miss something? Does Ukraine really have Tomahawks?
Life is not like a walk in the park in a late summer sunny day. It is difficult and war even more so.
Is it a sound policy to avoid extremes that could lead to a catastrophic general war? Yes.
Does restraint encourage the other side to escalate further? Yes.
Where is the point of diminishing rewards for restraint? I don't know. Do you?
Even when the function ends with a Russian or will a Western victory, it will be open to discussion whether the strategy of either side was right.
Could the defeated have avoided defeat?
Could victory had been achieved in a less costly way?
To my mind, the lone fact that can be established with a degree of certainty is that the American strategy of conflict with Russia, implicit in the Wolfowitz, doctrine is a complete failure.
Quickly and easily defeating Russia and then going after China to secure full spectrum domination for centuries.
But what if Russia survives and joins forces with China?
It will not become counter productive. As long as the west doesn’t get their regime change and balcanization of Russia, they will continue to achieve their goals. They will never stop. That would be defeat, that would mean loss of status, maybe even loss of job.
NATO/the U.S. won't want to stop, but they will.
1918 Leaderships on all sides were mostly blind to the resources backing every nation, except their own.
Today, on one side we have Financialized Token Nations, flipping promises-to-pay as the glass backbone of their economies vs. a nation of extensive resources.
The nation with resources wins. The Parasite Nations lose. Period.
China and India know they are next. People like Trump are the best examples of why you have to remain/fight to be independent.
Well I'm rather impressed with what the Russian military has gained by NOT going all in. Putin obviously value human life and we all know attacks require much larger forced and sustain much higher casualties. Putin has with relatively little defeated the entire NATO USA and Ukraine with several battles being Ukraine doing stupid stuff for PR.
At the same time I think it's valuable to remember what we now know of the Russian economy and social structure could not have been fully known at at the onset. As far as I can tell from the outside Russia is now of a common mind, and that takes time. It could have gone the other way, if going to quickly against the entire NATO
Much of the stupid stuff that Ukraine does is because it is not the children of the Paymasters that are dying.
Putin keeps calling it an SMO to allow the "rabble" (you) to commit to the war. I can't say his psychology isn't working.
A tangential comment to this notion that its a "weird war":
There's a lot of talk about all the lessons learned from this "near peer" conflict, the first in a while. Especially related to the dominance of drones and precision weapons over traditional amour, artillery, air power, and troop formations and movements. However, with much of Ukraine's ISR and other back end totally off limits for attack and even Russia's IRS and other back end subject to notable, but nothing yet close to full, attack, we should be careful in writing off some of these other military capabilities.
Modern IRS, when intact, removes a lot of fog of war, making traditional strategy and tactics vulnerable to drone and other precision attack, but if some of this ISR gets taken out, maybe big arrow pushes and other such things would still be viable.
---
I just ask these things, as a non-expert in military matters, out of curiosity about whether military experts are thinking about them.
The treaty the Bolsheviks made gave up a lot of Russian territory as I understand it. You could look it up
It sounds like he is offering a Russian version of the German “stab in the back” theory?
Russia made significant mistakes in its war against Germany in the First World War. They fought in the enemy territory, in a way that was against Russian way of fighting a war.
Germans could move divisions by train. Imagine that, in 1914-1915.
Should have let them in, and depleted them, and only then counterattacked. Like they did with Napoleon.
Putin will not repeat the same mistake.
But, yes, he may make a new type of mistake. If he continues with his strategy, it may happen that significant number of Russian elites will think of him as Romans might have thought of Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus, acca Cunctator.
Still, Fabius won.
It is important for Russians to remain united. All this Tomahawk show, is directed towards Russian public, in order to sow doubts in Putin's leadership.
Russia has a unique opportunity, to fight this existential war as a proxy war, in defined space (more or less Ukraine, and corresponding Black Sea), against a defined opponent (a million strong army plus dozen thousands "volunteers", that has been recruited from a pool of 35 million population)
The price Russia has to pay, for victory, (and remember it is existential war, and, Russia is fighting for its survival) is to face enemy that has enormous support by NATO/US/West in intelligence, training, ammunition, weapons,
Pay the price and win conclusively.
Why throw it all away, and start a world war, that might turn nuclear.
There are rational heads on the other side.
They have been escalating, but not a single one is suicidal, not even Ukrainians.
But in order for slow method to ultimately succeed, there must be credible deterrence
Capability to inflict painful strikes to West, Nato
credibility that such strikes will indeed happen
communication of the above mentioned clearly to Nato, US, Europe and Ukraine
If the slow method isn’t accepted by Ukrainian side, EU, US
there will have to be a strike
Bunkering your power stations makes their repair and reconstruction almost impossible after a visit from a low flying господин Искандер, Mother Russia's ambassador in rump Ukraine. Juss sayin'
Some background re. the leading up to WWI and after: https://matthewehret.substack.com/p/trotskys-bolshevism-an-anglo-american
WW1 the last 19th century war of Kingdoms and Principalities. No bluebloods dying, but the men that died were treated like...well... Ukrainians.
Rows of geometrically arranged gravestones do not replace the families and communities destroyed by the inbred Royals who thought their shit don't stink.
That is a great post. I just read that myself. Matt Ehret is one of the best sources for anyone who wants to get a true understanding of how the British recaptured the US and pull our strings and also, how they are behind every trouble spot on the globe.
They’re not on the way, only naïve people like Zelensky believed that.
Put yourself in Trump shoes: you don’t care either about Ukraine or Russia, you care about being a peacemaker. Would you send long range missiles that will create more destruction, chaos, violence and escalation while not resolving the war itself? Of course not.
The reality is Trump has been sending NOTHING to Ukraine and only allowing NATO countries to buy stuff. Those same NATO countries on the verge of bankruptcy.
Simplicus is most likely completely wrong. He mocks Trump yet the war in Gaza is finally over, and you can be certain that Russia will finish off Ukraine rapidly.
Such wondrous clarity. The war in Gaza is over. That's hoping, not prophecy. Without war there will be no "Greater Israel."
Ukraine? U.S. resources are limited. For Russia they have to play the hand they have at the table now. Minsk 1 and 2 bought time for both sides to re-arm. Russia cannot and it appears will not, enter into another Minsk (3).
Axel,
you are right again. The war in Gaza is over. Let me whisper a secret; Bibi will get a pardon, if the war ends.
The reality is Trump has been sending NOTHING to Ukraine and only allowing NATO countries to buy stuff. Those same NATO countries on the verge of bankruptcy.
Basically, Trump has presented a bill to Europeans. This is what you have to pay to continue the war.
To keep the army supplied with weapons, to pay mercenaries/volunteers, even folks commenting as psychological warfare operatives have to eat, to keep the society afloat, to pay all the pensions, health care, social care, energy, oil, gas, electricity imports...
Europeans do not like it, as it is quite a lot of money. It is at least 100 billions a year.
So, Europeans would like to steal the Russian frozen assets.
No, no, no,
Trump is not complaining,
Eu seizure of Russian assets will be a great help to dollar as the only reserve currency...
Part of the Alaska show, the next Budapest show, the Russia US tunnel, is exactly this - making Europeans present themselves as cheap crooks.
I do listen carefully to Brian Brletic, and I am certain that Russian leadership is aware of the risks, and dangers.
Still, Trump is being significantly underestimated.
Except, perhaps, by Putin. Putin did congratulate Trump on Gaza deal,
Time is not on the side of Z or his backers. That much should be obvious just by reading this piece. I’m guessing Trump knows this.
Tomahawks are coming? What are they going to shoot them from? Are the 'Muricans going to give Zelenski B-52s, B-2s, an Aegis cruiser, a converted Los Angeles sub or a handfull of experimental ground launchers? Nope.
Bluffing on a pair of twos 🤪 again.
>Tomahawks are coming? What are they going to shoot them from
Typhons, LRFs, X-MAVs, etc.