Zelensky Circus Comes to Town for One Last Encore

Zelensky has once more descended on DC in velvet-toned Hollywood fashion, for a last ditch plea to convince Republicans to unlock his money.

He proceeded to break into this unusually…direct speech:

Well, okay, maybe that was a joke.

Continuing, there are a few interesting side-notes to contextualize his visit. Firstly, there was rumor that Zelensky was already being ‘side-lined’ by virtue of Yermak taking his place in globe-hopping, as he did last time when it was him visiting DC and soaking up all the high profile meetings. Some suspected that Yermak was in fact being presented as the true leader, and that rather than promoting Zaluzhny to the throne, the DC sponsors were getting ready to outright swap Zelensky with the less tainted Yermak himself.

Building on that, one perspective is that Zelensky needed to head to DC himself, to wash away the image of Yermak as kingmaker while Zelensky is holed up in some bunker back home. He needed to re-establish himself as a ‘strong’ globetrotting leader, lest the West forgets about him.

The second angle is, Arestovich relayed the story of how long ago, around the time of the Bucha events, a delegation of high profile Republicans came to visit Zelensky in Kiev, and were completely cold-shouldered by him—he refused to even see them. At the time he was the ‘darling’ of the global elite and didn’t bother deigning to entertain them. But now that he’s isolated and in crisis mode, he’s suddenly desperate for Republican attention and support. Suffice it to say, many of them likely remembered his treatment, and now reciprocate accordingly.

Ultimately, Zelensky’s visit is all about Biden attempting to make one last effort to guilt trip the Republicans into ending the deadlock before the deadline. The plan was for Zelensky to address the most thorny criticisms of Ukraine in a closed session, in order to reassure Congress. For instance, the issue of corruption was chief amongst them. Zelensky’s purpose was to convince them Ukraine is not as corrupt as they all know it to be.

The other issues, according to rumors, include the presentation of a plan for 2024 that might reassure Congress that their support for Ukraine has a valid purpose, rather than simply throwing money into a well. This revolves around not only an alleged new secret plan for a 2024 “offensive,” but also promises from Zelensky on various reforms and improvements, such as mobilizing an additional 500k men. In essence, he’s telling them “if you give me more money, I promise to mobilize vast amounts of new meat to continue weakening Russia for you.”

Biden was hoping this urgent last minute tour could allow Zelensky to change the Republicans’ minds at the 11th hour, so that a vote can unlock more money just before they go on recess. However, hopes for this have already been dashed as Mitch Mcconnell reported the chances of a vote this year are next to none, and the earliest it will happen is now January 2024.

So where does that leave things?

Right now, Biden has roughly $4-5B remaining in the presidential drawdown fund, which he’s eking out slowly to Ukraine, likely because he knows there’s some chance a deal won’t be struck even until February, or never at all. So he just announced another $200M of that to be disbursed soon:

Here’s one analyst’s explanation of the remaining funds:

Elena Panina Director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies:

Supplies of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine are carried out within the framework of two mechanisms:

1. USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) - purchase of defense products to support Kyiv directly from American industry. As of November 22, 2023, this amount was approximately $10.5 billion. (total used thus far)

2. PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority - transfer to Kyiv by decision of the US President of federally owned state property reserves, i.e. from Pentagon warehouses). In parallel, the process of Ukraine Presidential Drawdown Replacement is underway (Replacement of equipment withdrawn from Pentagon warehouses by decision of the US President, i.e. replenishment of Pentagon warehouses). In the diagram it is designated as REPLACEMENT. As of November 15, 2023 - in the amount of about $16.8 billion.

The new $200M will likely only give a modest amount of ammunition refills, enough for perhaps a couple weeks or less of expenditures. As an example, a single HIMARS GMLRS rocket costs somewhere around $150k. Thus, the $200M tranche amounts to the equivalent of purchasing about 1,300 such rockets. Not that it will go all towards them, but it’s just an example. Realistically it will probably buy a few hundred GMLRS rockets as well as a miniscule amount of other systems.

Remember this meme?

However, the IMF also approved a new $900M package today.

This is a loan and is meant to cover societal expenditures in Ukraine, i.e. paying salaries and such, rather than weaponry. But with a massive $43B deficit for 2024, how does Ukraine intend to pay for everything, including the war should the U.S. funding dry up entirely in 2024?

There are all kinds of talks, from massive tax hikes on basic utilities in Ukraine, to the selling off of Ukraine’s treasure.

▪️They write that, as part of the fulfillment of the IMF conditions, next year in Ukraine they will raise tariffs for the population for electricity by 40% and for gas by 70%.

Arestovich described the possibilities on his official X account. Though it’s a tad lengthy, read the below as he gets into very interesting territory regarding the admission that Ukraine chose “the wrong side,” as well as a damning indictment of America’s manufacturing and productive capacities:

- The US House of Representatives does not plan to consider the White House’s request for new assistance to Kyiv before leaving for the holidays, despite the visit of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to the United States.

This follows from the legislature's schedule.

——

For us, this most likely means opening gold and foreign exchange reserves and printing the hryvnia.

Inflation.

Big problems at the front.

Today it is customary to scold Zelensky and his team for the failure of their policies in the West and inside Ukraine.

But I recommend looking at the situation more broadly.

The entire West is losing, both globalists and isolationists - and we, who bet on it, due to our stupidity.

The isolationists won against the Republicans; the globalist Democrats are unable to solve the problems that they themselves created on a global scale.

Isolationists believe in the United States as a city on a hill and want to throw concerns about Europe into the hands of right-wingers like Orban.

And for starters, together throw off Ukraine, which is considered a construct of globalists.

The problem is not that they can’t give us money.

The problem is that they can’t give us shells.

Forty billion was thrown into a widely publicized microchip plant in Phoenix (Arizona), like a transfer from Taiwan.

The plant is standing still, there are no workers.

They tried to recruit Taiwanese, but it didn’t work either.

The Americans cannot launch the military-industrial complex, under the existing system, neither with Moroccans, nor with Mexicans, nor with dances, nor with tambourines.

The fundamental motivation of the market is financial speculation.

Arms companies show growth in capitalization, but never show growth in production (because there is practically none).

If production grows, it does so extremely slowly, so as not to break capitalization schemes.

Their task is to increase the value of shares, and not to create new equipment.

Tens of billions are being invested, but there is no growth in production.

And it won’t, for this it is necessary to change the entire paradigm, all the schemes that ensure his well-being.

I looked at the annual and quarterly reports of Ratheon, Lockheed, Boeing - the same thing everywhere.

Only decisions and actions in an emergency way out of a catastrophe can have an effect both here and in the West.

But there is another problem - there is no entity in the US/EU who could give such a command.

The West was really caught with its pants down.

Now they have to choose between three conflicts - Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel.

Dragging 70,000 shells from Israel to Ukraine and back is the culmination of the failure to fight the war that was forced on them.

At this rate, they will have a fourth and fifth conflict, I suspect, although in order to somehow cope with one (!) they need to stop helping in the other two.

For us this means disaster.

Moreover, the catastrophe is not the last two years, but the global catastrophe of the last 32.

The time has come to pay for our total stupidity, theft, stupid pride.

Is there a chance?..

Eat.

Immediate transition to emergency control mode.

This will delay the fall and give time to search for options.

You can evaluate the chances for it yourself.

——

But don't be upset.)

It's not just the West that has problems.

All of us, all of humanity, have been thoroughly fucked.

What is the payback for 32 years?

Then the payment for 500 began.

Firstly, he says that if Biden’s giant lump sum disbursement can’t be made to work, then Ukraine will have to start selling off its gold reserves, as well as freely printing money, causing hyperinflation.

Bloomberg corroborated some of the details:

Bloomberg analyzes what measures the Ukrainian leadership can take if the new western financing is not provided in sufficient quantities.

Among the options:

- increasing tax revenues, which is an obvious problem in a weakened economy;
- reduction of expenses of the already "besieged" population;
- devaluation of the hryvnia;
- printing money, which will have "negative consequences," said Finance Minister Marchenko. In particular, it will lead to higher inflation.

The Ministry of Finance hopes that the National Bank will devalue the hryvnia, which should increase tax revenues from sources such as increasing customs duties.

The IMF imposed a restriction on the printing press: no more than 50 billion hryvnia per quarter.

Politicians interviewed by the publication still have “certain confidence” that external financing will ultimately be approved.

The budget deficit for the next year is more than $ 40 billion. Less than a third of this amount was confirmed to be received from outside.

And just like clockwork, news hit today that the Hryvnia was already being quickly devalued to what is called the lowest value against the USD in history:

⚡️⚡️⚡️The National Bank of Ukraine raised the official exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia to an all-time high

If yesterday trading on Bloomberg (the main platform) ended at 36:58 UAH/$, today, December 5, they closed at 36:69 UAH/$.

Exporters set prices at UAH 36:70-36:72/$, but no transactions were recorded at these levels.

Starting tomorrow, December 6, the National Bank has finally set the official exchange rate at 36:6618 UAH/$ (the previous value was 36:5383 UAH/$),the maximum value in the entire history of the Ukrainian hryvnia⚡️⚡️⚡️

To circle back as a brief digression, Arestovich is now technically a fugitive. He’s residing in New York City, has been photographed shopping at Saks 5th Avenue this week, and has admitted that there’s basically an arrest warrant out for him in Ukraine for his various recent transgressions in speaking out so openly about Zelensky and the gang.

On the recent visits by Yermak and Zelensky to the U.S., Arestovich admitted to not meeting with them. In short, he appears to be a full blown exiled dissident, helping to orchestrate Zelensky’s downfall from afar so that he can swoop back into the country and claim the throne.

I bring this point up because Zelensky’s party’s leader, David Arakhamia, revealed in a new video that many of the Verkhovna Rada deputies actually want to resign and flee, but they are being prevented from doing so by the wider Rada:

I added a video at the end of ex-Rada Deputy Ihor Mosiychuk not only confirming this fact, but stating that the amount of deputies seeking to flee is quite high and it is risking the legitimacy of the entire Ukrainian parliament. It comes down to rats fleeing a sinking ship, as he states, with the Rada allegedly already being down to 400 out of a needed 450 total members.

If the measures discussed above begin coming to fruition in 2024—i.e. the selling off of gold reserves, vast tax and inflation increases, etc.—then one can imagine the situation deteriorating.

On that topic, interestingly Zelensky and the leadership have just gone through a veritable gauntlet of meetings with the top globalist venture-vultures, likely for the very purpose above, to begin negotiations of selling off more Ukrainian assets—and Ukraine itself—in order to bankroll next year’s coming disastrous deficits.

Literally 3-4 days apart, Zelensky held a meeting with the IMF and Alex Soros, and Yermak is now reportedly meeting with BlackRock.

December 9 meeting:

December 11 with the IMF here.

And the BlackRock rumor from ResidentUA channel:

#Inside
Our source in the OP said that Andrei Ermak flew to the USA to meet with management BlackRock, who was offered a full package of opportunities in Ukraine, we are ready to give all strategic enterprises and land if the corporation will help get a new package of military and financial assistance.

Zelensky’s trip to the United States is necessary to close the case with BlackRock, all strategic enterprises of the country: nuclear power plant / hydroelectric station / PHC / oblenergo / regional farms / plants, and most importantly, subsoil and land will go under the control of a multinational company.

In short: the selling off of the entire country is going rapidly apace.

But let’s get back to the outlook for a moment. Besides the money and weaponry, what exactly is being planned for Ukraine for 2024 in these closed meetings?

There are several rumors that give us some inkling for the rough playbook each side is angling for.

In a new article, NYTimes states states the following:

Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.

The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.

This is something I’ve heard from several sources now. Basically, the U.S. appears to want Ukraine to merely consolidate what they have, bolster their defenses, and fight a defensive war merely to deprive Russia from making any further gains. But the revealing admission is the second part, which states that the express goal of this strategy is merely to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

The precise manner they intend to do that was enumerated elsewhere, and goes as follows. They believe that the West is miserably behind in their manufacturing capacities and cannot presently keep up with Russia in a high intensity head to head. But if Ukraine can “buy them time,” they believe they can bring some of their capacities up to at least such a level, by 2025 or so, that it would give Russia pause and cause them to see victory as unachievable.

Recall all those farflung estimates about U.S. reaching 100-200k monthly shell production by 2025, and similar things from the EU. There is some worry about this. For instance, much of the discussions of shell production specifically revolves around the ‘big powerhouses’ like U.S. and Germany. However, quiet motions are being made to expand production in a slew of smaller countries like Bulgaria and Azerbaijan, which cumulatively can eventually make up quite a sizable boon for Ukraine.

For instance, last week a Ukrainian milblogger took a photo in a ‘secret’ 122mm shell production line, accidentally leaking a sign on the wall which pointed to an Azerbaijan based company.

But another set of rumors claims that Biden instructed Zelensky to freeze the conflict by Spring 2024 at the latest. Be that as it may, the U.S. does not seem to be giving up just yet. For instance, we have the following rumor which states that the Pentagon is transferring its own generals to Ukraine to takeover the direct management of the war front:

I was dubious at first, but the earlier NYTimes article I posted actually includes this little blurb:

So it’s true: the U.S. is scrambling generals directly to the ground to hatch out some emergency plan to allow Ukraine to last out the next few months. Logically, the only way such urgent shakeups make sense is that the U.S. is counting on a high probability that all funding will in fact be cut, and that Ukraine needs a completely new set of emergency strategies to survive what will likely be a brutally disproportionate onslaught from Russia over the next season.

There have been some hints from Ukrainian sources related to this. For instance, a Ukrainian artillery officer callsign Artie Greene told Arestovich days ago that due to recent Russian pressure, AFU forces may have to abandon everything on the east side of the Zherebets river and possibly even the Oskil, which would effectively give up Kupyansk and everything east of it, as well as potentially Krasny Liman:

This is coupled with reports that as part of the strategic restructuring, Ukraine may have to bunker down and defend only the most important cities, while giving up large amounts of non-strategic territory.

But to get back to that NYTimes article for a final point, there’s something very revealing they wrote. Recall how long we’ve joked here about Ukraine’s desperate ploy to create random, strategically inert “symbolic victories” to make up for the fact that it can’t achieve any real battlefield ones. Well, for what seems like the first time in history, they literally admitted to it at the bottom of the NYTimes piece:

So as part of Ukraine’s plans going forward into next year, they intend to create ‘surprising’ new symbolic victories, including “very daring ones”—a full admission that their entire program consists of merely performative token triumphs for global media consumption. Thus, we’re put on notice to expect some new ‘clever’ terrorist attacks in the coming months, which will have no effect on the calculus on the ground.

But as a final consideration for where things are headed into 2024, one other idea in relation to U.S.’s attempt to slow down the conflict to buy time for itself is the following. If worst comes to worst, and the U.S. is not able to get Russia to accede to a negotiations next year, there’s a chance that the U.S. will retool the negotiations effort as a deliberate trap with the understanding that Russia will reject them for the purpose of using the rejection as a torch to inspire Europe in rising up to the ‘threat’ posed by a resurgent Russia. They will say “See! Russia has no intention to ever stop, they will conquer all of Europe next.”

Even if they know the offer will be rejected, it’s in the U.S.’s interests to attempt to bring Kiev to the table for the sake of optics: so that Ukraine is absolved of any responsibility for the conflict, and can be painted to look like the victim to Russia’s “aggressor” in front of a European audience. This will be used to rally support and a new re-commitment of financial aid.

In essence, it would be the U.S.’s chance to “prove” that Ukraine was actually the pacifist all along, seeking peaceful resolutions, while Russia was busy spurring them. This will of course be further used to completely recharacterize the historiography of the war, reframing the various negotiation attempts in the early part of 2022 in Ukraine’s favor, etc.

Of course this itself would represent a desperate Plan B, if the primary plan doesn’t work out: which is to freeze the conflict entirely—that would be most preferable for the time being. It’s just that this would give the U.S. some hope that perhaps they can use Russia’s unshakeable posture to rekindle Europe’s sense of urgency, to make sure that Russia does not win a major decisive takeover of all Ukraine, which—as we discussed last time—would mean the complete termination of all globalist deals, be they those of Soros, BlackRock, MIC defense corps, et al, to parasitize Ukraine forever.

But as I mentioned in the last mailbag, 2024 stands to become one of the most explosively dynamic political years of all time:

2024 has 65 elections globally across 54 countries. We won’t see that many again until 2048.

That means we can expect unprecedented tumult, uncertainty, and potential instability to sweep the globe, which will create a ‘perfect storm’ of trouble for Ukraine and any imagined “solidarity” on account of countries pledging to sacrifice their economies in critically expanding munitions production for what is clearly a lost cause.

On top of that, I envision the U.S.’s own situation converging with an increasingly unstable MidEast to create social and political chaos. All of this will benefit Russia greatly, which can have a truly banner year. However, there will be a big risk for some last ditch desperation falseflag to create a ‘black swan’ event to change the trajectory of things at the final hour, perhaps one of those “daring surprises” Ukraine has promised.

One of the West’s final desperate bids will simply be to somehow get rid of Putin. One such idea was posed recently by The Telegraph, in what is a decided masterclass in irony:

So—Russia’s elections are ‘shams’, so we must turn them ‘legitimate’ by subverting them—in other words by turning them into actual shams? This is the type of moral plane the West presently inhabits.

Lastly, I leave you with this other absolutely succulent example of Western chauvinism and hubris:

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