Velyka Novosilka Falls Without Fight, as '100 Day Peace Plan' Reportedly "Leaked"
One of the biggest recent battlefield developments is just how quickly some of Ukraine’s largest urban strongholds are falling after being surrounded and cut off by Russian forces.
At one point long ago, every little settlement was won by bitter pitched fighting, advancing one house at a time—places like Rubezhnoe, Popasna, Soledar, Bakhmut, etc. But now, nearly half of the major strongholds are falling virtually without a fight. There are some exceptions: Toretsk and Chasov Yar for instance were slowly contested, though in their case it had more to do with geographic features and terrain not favorable for encirclement, which forced Russian troops to assault them head on.
When Selidove/Selidovo fell in October, it surprised many by how quickly it was abandoned. Kurakhove itself was mythologized by the AFU to be a critical, expansive battle that should have taken many months to conclude. And it did take long to slowly flank it—but the actual progression through the city itself, once it had begun, was relatively fast.
The same went for Ugledar: it took many months to slowly flank it on the sides, but then the fabled stronghold itself fell in literally four or five days in early October. Now the triumph has been repeated in an even greater stronghold, Velyka Novosilka. After spending weeks carefully enveloping it, Russian soldiers left the city relatively untouched as Ukrainian units simply fled without much of a fight.
Here the Russian 40th Marines and 5th Brigade plant their flags in the north of the town:
The Russian army defeated the Ukrainian Armed Forces and took the enemy's fortress city - Velikaya Novosyolka
▪️Fighters from the 40th Marines, 5th and 37th brigades, with the support of special forces, artillery and aviation of the "East" group of forces, liberated the regional center of Velyka Novosilka - the largest defense and logistics hub of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction.
▪️Our units completed the liberation of Velikaya Novoselka, defeating 110th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
▪️Now the entire agglomeration of the Vremevsky salient has been liberated - Velyka Novosyolka, Vremyevka, Neskuchnoye - the largest defense and logistics hub of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR.
▪️The area was prepared and equipped with fortifications, well protected by three natural water barriers and surrounding buildings, after long and stubborn battles it came under the control of the "East" group , becoming an important step in the liberation of the southeast.
RVvoenkor
On top of which, Toretsk was effectively fully seized today as well:
One thing worth mentioning which not many have commented on, is that Russia has been sneakily expanding quite an interesting bridgehead just north of Kupyansk. It started as an exploratory probing action a while back, but it has now turned into a full-on bridgehead west of the Oskil River:
You can see the Oskil River there—a lot of territory west of it has now been seized. This means in the future Russian forces could encircle Kupyansk from both sides of the river:
But getting back to the opening thought: Many Ukrainian towns are beginning to fall without a fight, merely after being cut off or partially encircled. This bodes poorly for some of the larger upcoming fights, particularly Pokrovsk, which was expected by both sides to be one of the major pivotal upcoming battles of the war, akin in scale to Bakhmut.
Given these developments, it’s very possible that Pokrovsk will likewise fall much quicker than expected when its main supply routes are cut off. Russian forces are now moving closer to the second of these lines, having captured the first days ago.
You can see below the main road to Udachne was captured, but now a new salient extending north has appeared toward the critical E50 and likewise critical Hryshyne, a town I had mentioned in a previous report would be key to encircling Pokrovsk:
Some now espouse the view that Russia will not get much farther beyond this because the talk of “negotiations” is running high, with some kind of ceasefire expected in the near to medium-term future.
In fact, popular Ukrainian outlet Strana has now reported an alleged ‘leaked’ peace plan from Trump’s camp which calls for an April ceasefire and a total armistice by May of this year.
Here is a good indepth summary of the plan’s timeline from Russian RVoenkor channel:
Trump's '100-day plan' for Ukraine: Ceasefire promised by Easter, peace by May 9
➖ It is impossible to say with certainty that the plan corresponds to reality. The Ukrainian publication "Strana" reports that the document was transferred from the US to the Europeans, and they in turn transferred it to Ukraine.
➖ Main:
▪️Trump plans to have a telephone conversation with Putin in late January - early February. He also wants to discuss the situation in Ukraine with its authorities.
▪️Based on the results of the negotiations, a decision may be made to continue or suspend the dialogue.
▪️Volodymyr Zelensky must cancel the decree that prohibits negotiations with Putin.
▪️A meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky may take place in February or the first half of March. It is not yet clear whether this will be a trilateral meeting or two separate ones. The meeting is planned to discuss the main parameters of the peace plan.
▪️Starting April 20, a ceasefire is planned to be declared along the entire front line, and all Ukrainian troops will be withdrawn from the Kursk region.
▪️An international peace conference is set to begin at the end of April to formalize an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict. The United States, China, and a number of countries in Europe and the Global South will act as mediators.
▪️Also at this time, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the formula “all for all”.
▪️By May 9, a declaration of the conference on the end of the conflict should be published. Martial law and mobilization will not be extended in Ukraine, and presidential elections will be held at the end of August.
➖ What is included in the agreement?
▪️Ukraine does not seek to return the territories that were liberated by Russia, either militarily or diplomatically, but at the same time does not officially recognize Russia's sovereignty over these territories.
▪️Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and declares its neutrality. The decision that Ukraine will not be accepted into the alliance must be confirmed at the NATO summit.
▪️Ukraine will become a member of the European Union by 2030. The EU is committed to rebuilding the country after the war.
▪️The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decreasing, and the United States is modernizing the Ukrainian army.
▪️After the conclusion of the peace agreement, some anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, and restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted.
▪️Parties that defend the Russian language and advocate peaceful relations with Russia should participate in the elections in Ukraine. The persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church will also cease.
▪️Separate consultations will be held on the issue of EU peacekeepers.
RVvoenkor
First: many obviously believe this is fake Ukrainian disinfo, and for good reason. There’s high chance that is likely—however, I do view it as relatively realistic as well for the simple fact that it chimes with Trump’s approach, and many of the key points above are consonant with statements from Zelensky and various US and European officials. If it was fake it would likely be a bit more flattering for Ukraine—which the above certainly is not, at least overtly so.
If there’s an inkling of truth to it, we can say with certainty it will be laughed out of the room by Russia for this simple line:
▪️The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not decrease, and the United States will modernize the Ukrainian army.
Even if Russia should achieve the concession that Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO, there is simply no way in hell Putin would allow Ukraine to retain its entire armed forces and have those forces vastly augmented and rebuilt into something even more threatening by the US. After potentially 100-200k Russian troops have been killed, thousands of civilians slaughtered, etc., there is simply no way Russian leaders or the general staff could possibly allow Ukraine to remain such an existential threat—with or without NATO. In fact, at this point, the NATO issue takes a backseat and is a small concern compared to the immediacy of a nationalistic totalitarian military dictatorship armed to the teeth sitting on Russia’s doorstep.
In short: the deal above is a non-starter should it actually appear in even a remotely similar form; it is the mere deluded fantasy of the West to even think Russia needs to stop fighting any time soon, at a time when major Ukrainian strongholds are folding like cheap lawn chairs on a daily basis.
The fact is also this: Ukraine now represents something far more dangerous than previously imagined, even with a ‘neutered’ military as per the original “Istanbul deal” from April 2022. You see, for decades Russia feared NATO creeping up to its borders due to the ability to inflict various unexpected surprise first-strike attacks on Russian early warning systems and other defenses which would cripple Russia’s ability to detect or respond to a full-fledged American decapitation attack, like a nuclear first strike.
Ukraine has already perversely demonstrated its brazenly unscrupled ability to hit Russian strategic level assets like Tu-95 bases, early warning systems, and other infrastructure, like targeting nuclear power plants. This means that even with a ‘reduced’ armed forces, Ukraine would still pose an unacceptable threat because launching new high-tech drones and various missiles does not require a large armed forces in the sense of a manpower pool or armor fleet.
For this fact alone, no kind of negotiations is possible without Ukraine’s total disarmament or capitulation—this issue is absolutely an existential one for Russia. An armistice and Istanbul-style ‘de-militarization’ could lull Russia into a false sense of security, but then at an opportune time in the future, NATO could use their sacrificial patsy to unleash a massive drone and missile strike on Russian strategic assets, which would be followed by a large-scale NATO attack to decapitate Russia entirely. This would take place precisely upon NATO’s own ‘re-armament’ and military strengthening, which they are in the process of initiating as we speak. Russian military brains know this and as such would not allow any kind of peace deal within the bounds of the above terms.
To conclude, here’s analyst Starshe Edda’s thoughts on the claimed Trump proposal released by Strana:
All media outlets are commenting on some Trump plan to stop the war in 100 days. Friends, this is not Trump's plan, this is the wishes of a hohol and his lies, which may well have been agreed upon with the new American administration.
Moreover, no one was even surprised by the clause according to which the hohols "withdraw troops from the Kursk region" in April. It is quite possible that the utilization of the hohol on the Kursk Bulge will continue until April, but only an enemy who is passing off wishful thinking as reality can so categorically declare that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be in the Kursk borderland until the "truce". The same can be said about the other clauses of the "Trump peace plan".
Listen to our army, and not to the lies of Ukrainian journalists. Only a Russian soldier can prepare a real peace plan, and it would be better if by the beginning of peace negotiations our soldier will be standing with his foot on the throat of the defeated enemy.
As stated earlier, Russia’s advantage is only increasing while Ukraine’s is dwindling with every hour, there is literally no possible reason Russia could want to negotiate now as it approaches the threshold of total victory.
Just listen to Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner’s latest interview with ZDF TV, where he states unequivocally that Ukraine may not even last the three months it would take to reach the “100 days negotiations”:
What he says next is even more damning:
“Let me make something clear, time is playing for Russia and Ukraine is running out of time. Ukraine is just about to lose this war. Russian advances are now beginning to switch to the operational level.”
As you can see, Reisner is remarking on the acceleration of the collapse of Ukrainian defenses, where major strongholds are now being taken without resistance, which will eventually allow Russian forces to likely even begin encircling them without much resistance, leading to a cascade effect.
Despite the eroded resistance, Ukrainian losses in these cities have been no less severe. The past week has seen a rash of videos showing ungodly casualties on the Ukrainian side—for the brave, just take a look at these videos from only the past day or two: Video 1, Video 2, Video 3, Video 4, Video 5, Video 6, Video 7.
And the Russian fiber-optic drone hits on Ukrainian units is peaking as well:
Russian channel Voenhronika details an interview with an AFU member with interesting comments:
On yesterday's stream of LOMA APU Nikolai Feldman and media sniper APU from Kharkiv Proshinsky, was given an interesting opinion of the enemy about the situation by the summer of 2025. First, only a few elite brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now hold the front, while the rest are somehow only able to stand on the defensive. If the current intensity of fighting continues, even the "elite" will be severely knocked out by the summer and autumn.
On the other hand, the Russian army has a shortage of infantry and an offensive in more than 1-2 directions is impossible. In order to quickly saturate the army and, for example, encircle Kharkiv, it is necessary to mobilize and prepare troops. At the same time, there are no particularly powerful fortifications around Slavyansk or Kramatorsk, to the west and north of Chasova Yar in the summer of 2024 there were steppes and forests-without trenches and minefields. During the fall, it is unlikely that anything has changed. But on the other hand, considerable funds were invested in fortifications on the outskirts of Dnepropetrovsk.
Actually, that is why the Ukrainian Armed Forces have now switched to focal defense, building defense lines on an emergency basis with attempts to hold the front with infantry and FPV drones. The moment will soon come when the advance of the Russian army may amount to tens or even hundreds of kilometers in 1-2 days.
And from ostensibly Ukrainian Legitimny channel:
#hearings
Our source reports that the Zemobilization has failed so much that police from the TCK have to walk in crowds of 8 people in order to have a chance to fight off the angry people.
Now the catch (ed: forced mobilization) plan is being implemented only 35-43% of the losses at the front, and the SPZ, and only 20% is being implemented from the main catch plan.
The shortage of manpower is growing in the Ukrainian army.
The ultimate problem now—and the primary reason for why time is now on Russia’s side—is because the only thing that can possibly save Ukraine at this point is the political will and unity of Europe. But the problem is: Europe is falling apart, with anti-establishment forces and parties quickly rising to depose the incumbent globalist tyrants. As such, the longer the war goes on, the more chance that Europe cracks and solidarity gets flushed down the drain, with Ukraine being left with no hope at salvation from their ‘big brothers’ at all.
Case in point from yesterday:
Time is short for the globalists.
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Nothing can stop the Russian forces at this point, and it's time for the Ukraine to surrender...But Zelensky is afraid he'll be assassinated if he doesn't fight to the end...The 100 day plan, as Simplicius points out, is a joke...Putin would be forced out if he even contemplated such a disastrous snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory....
Hello all.
I absorb a lot about the nature, modus operandi and intentions of the globalists. I hear about where they are truly based, ........ city of London for instance, the locations of their financial outposts, ect. The thing that gets them is the same that has always brought down empires; lack of a sufficient military capable of backing up those in charge.
They misread the global tea leaves as in the resurgence of China after being out of the game since the 1830's, the reformation of Russia and all the other movements of all the other factors which naturally occur when people get tired of a Boss that is gradually crumbling. They deluded themselves in thinking that their precious fonte of strength was supreme when all they where imbibing was a fetid cocktail created from distilled horseshit. Their leadership is of a caliber of stupidity right out of tales such as Humpty Dumpty and The Emperor's New Clothes.
On a personal level, I know what it means to change one's life. You need meaningful planning and medical consultation. Realistic planning in terms of changing the diet and get the ass out to do significant exercise, at a pace and on a path of evolution that will not kill you. And finally, you need commitment which is founded on solid common sense and positive dreams on can be attained, God willing. These clowns from the occidental side of things have almost none of this. So, they are done.
Thank you once again Simplicius, best wishes to you.