U.S. Suffers Worst Day of Air Losses in Decades as Iran Conflict Spirals
The Iran conflict is escalating, with the Trump administration desperate to keep a straight face on things as American casualties and losses begin mounting.
Today’s major shock came when not one, not two, but an unprecedented three American F-15E fighter jets were mysteriously shot down over Kuwait. Note the official US military report admits that Iranian aircraft had been engaging them at a time when “air superiority” was allegedly long established:
But not everyone is convinced these were “friendly fire” incidents. Iran announced it had downed the craft, which is at least plausible given that Kuwait is positioned well within reach of long-range S-300s.
There are even logical speculations that Iran had received the latest Geran drone tech from Russia which attaches air-to-air missiles onto the Gerans and Shaheds, allowing them to shoot down pursuing craft as Russia has now verifiably demonstrated against a number of Ukrainian aerial assets. It’s impossible to know for sure, but friendly fire on three aircraft in a row strains credulity.
That said, if friendly fire was the case we can point to how the West mocked and ridiculed Russia for its supposed lack of IFF (Identify Friend Foe) systems, when Russian ADs occasionally shot down their own assets in highly contested air spaces. But even Russia has never managed to humiliate itself with three lead aircraft shoot-downs in the same hour, let alone the same day. It’s clear that once again we find everything the West mocked Russia for over the past few years the West itself finds difficult in time of a real shooting war.
Recall how superior US’s IFF systems were said to be, now suddenly it quickly turns to “Well, we always knew IFF wasn’t reliable…”
Next came the news that US soldier casualties are mounting, with now six US personnel confirmed killed with others wounded.
Iran officials claim over 650 US casualties so far, which includes wounded. At first glance this may appear like wild exaggeration, but recall that “dozens” of US troops were wounded with “severe brain trauma” according to official US sources after Iran did a minor one-time strike on US bases following Soleimani’s killing.
So why would it be unbelievable that the “dozens” of casualties can translate into hundreds given that Iran’s current attacks are orders of magnitude greater?
The first U.S. service members killed in the conflict with Iran died in a direct Iranian strike on a makeshift operations center at a civilian port in Kuwait on Sunday morning local time, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.
The source said the strike hit just after 9 a.m., directly impacting a triple-wide trailer used as office space. There were no warning sirens. Parts of the building were still smoldering hours later.
Additionally, major damage is being done to American assets all across the region. US’s Bahrain base, which is the home of the US 5th Fleet, has sustained massive damage according to satellite imagery obtained by NYT:
Satellite images from March 1, reviewed by The New York Times, show heavy damage at Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home of the U.S. 5th Fleet, after sustained Iranian missile and drone strikes.
The white satellite uplink radome you see on the above map is the same one seen hit by Iranian Shahed drones in yesterday’s video:
Note that US assets appear completely defenseless and unable to deal with even a light saturation of drones, as witnessed in another video where Shaheds calmly decommission another regional US base as American troops look on in helpless shock:
The other interesting aspect that has emerged from the conflict is the admission by Iran that the state military apparatus has gone into a kind of full-scale war survival mode, wherein various military regional commanders are tasked with responding autonomously without a central command. This was admitted even by Iranian FM Araghchi when he seemed to regret certain targets that Iran had struck because they were not targets chosen by a central authority but rather lone commanders, potentially even rogue ones.
“Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general instructions given to them in advance.” - Iranian FM Araghchi
🐻 Translation from diplomatic speak to normal:
“Well... the Epstein Coalition killed our leader so now the army basically does what it wants.”
Granted, he says these “independent” commanders are given a kind of general set of instructions but appear to have room to maneuver in their own decision-making. This is akin to submarine commanders in the Cold War who might be deployed for extended periods of time and completely severed from communications under the ocean, and are given a set of instructions along with highly risky ‘discretion’ to act in accordance with their conscience perhaps in the time of a nuclear exchange.
Big Serge comments on the pros and cons of such a strategy:
It’s a very weird war.
Iran prepared for decapitation strikes by pre-authorizing field commanders to retaliate at will. You have the Iranian Foreign minister admitting that military units are mostly out of command at the moment. So in a sense, Iran turned itself into a giant bomb, primed to detonate when it got hit. The Iranian military is essentially weapons free, which makes it hard for them to coordinate or mass strikes. It also makes them unpredictable and difficult to control.
On the other hand, you have the United States pursuing contradictory war aims. The White House seems to want to negotiate, but decapitation leaves you with nobody who is clearly empowered to negotiate. Since Iran’s military is basically emptying the clip without central direction, it’s not even clear that a ceasefire could be implemented by Iran if they want it. Trump explicitly said that the people they expected to take charge in Tehran are now dead.
It’s all a recipe for maximum chaos with few brakes. The US has to commit to a throw weight game either until Iran’s strike capability is completely degraded, or until Tehran reasserts central control and can submit to some sort of negotiated ceasefire. The latter doesn’t seem likely because the US is systematically degrading Iranian command and control.
Multiple sources have now indicated that Iran has rejected various ceasefire offers and appears to be going all out, at least until enough blood has been drawn to satisfy the Iranians’ thirst for vengeance.
A writer and lecturer on Islam illuminates the issue:
To understand the significance of Khamenei's assassination and why its such a catastrophic blunder for the US, consider this:
Iran has never had a martyred Supreme Leader. (Khomeini died of a heart attack.) For the leader of the Islamic Republic to be martyred by the Great Satan is 1000% on brand.
Furthermore, Khamenei was killed in Ramadan, the same month as Ali, the first imam of Shiism.
He was also killed with his family, which Shia view as parallel to the martyrdom of Husayn and his family in Karbala.
This takes Khamenei and the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic to record levels in the eyes of the Shia globally, and increasingly Sunnis.
Trump made this incredible blunder because he obeyed Netanyahu and adopted the Israeli strategy of kill everyone and everything.
The last part segues us into the firestorm which erupted earlier in the day over the admission made by several top US figures—including Marco Rubio and Mike Johnson—that the US was essentially blackmailed into launching the war by Israel.
Mike Johnson explained:
“Israel was determined to act in their defense here, with or without our help… Because Israel was determined to act, with or without the U.S., our commander in chief had a very difficult decision to make…”
NYT gives us the incredible line that Trump told Tucker Carlson he had “no choice” but to attack Iran:
Does that sound like the actions of a sovereign nation?
In fact, Senator Mark Warner stated this expressly today—that if the US is now equating imminent threats to Israel as threats to the US, then “we are in uncharted territory”:
