Well, he is telling porkies. He went to NATO foreign ministers planning meeting in Stockholm precisely to plan further action, plans C, D, E for the next few years already written. Total war with total means.
Do expect big, strong attack on Iranian leadership, as soon as they are ready.
They just need more warships closing at Hormuz, which is the main object for the USA/Israel.
They will do use all available means.
Trump is happy to wait as long as it takes, for the French/British/Italian/Danish flotilla to cross into the Gulf of Oman to be sunk by mines and missiles from Iran, to have a casus belli and return his 3 air crafts groups close to Hormuz.
But also any of some 40 countries coalition can enter war directly, introduce conscription and send ground troops to Middle East., make some new colonies, partly occupy or bring down some small countries.
Each of this flotilla has around 10 warships. So at some stage 40-60 strong group fully loaded with any weapons, including laser and the other newest experimental ones.
The Hormuz Alliance can have hundreds support boats from many countries.
So they will set up land bases in Iraq with small airfields, as Israel set up secret bases close to Iran's borders. Boats will be supplying them with amunnition using heavy helicopters.
Any place with enough water within 500 km from Iran's border is good enough, that in many countries. Fighters have range minimum 500 km with missiles another 300-600 km
Iraq army has only 180 k active, with 100 k paramilitary.
Until April there were in Iraq thousands soldiers from NATO. But only with light armament. They run away from Shia militias operating with drones. They can come back at any time with heavy armaments.
Iraq political elites and army are pacified. They hate Iran. They run 8 years war against Iran with NATO chemical weapons, killing tens of thousand Iranians and border Kurds. They would allow any army to come back to help fight pro-Iran militias.
Dream on. The South of Iraq is Shia. They sell oil and the money goes to the USA. They have to ask the USA for some of it.
The 8-year war against Iraq was when the country was controlled by the Sunni Baathists. That was a long time ago.
Today, in Ukraine, the West got Ukrainian Slavs to fight their Russian cousins. That is what propaganda and dictatorship achieves. Same thing happened in Iraq 40+ years ago.
Those days are long gone. The USA is a paper tiger.
Wake me up when the Dragon or the CdG go through the straits. Your prediction of the CdG sinking and attacking Bushehr is ticking away. When will it happen?
"The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said a military blockade on Iran’s ports remains in place, warning that it is “restricting all traffic inbound and outbound from these ports.” ...
The notice also warned that enforcement actions could include “disabling and destructive fires upon vessels who do not demonstrate immediate compliance with blockading forces.”
The agency further advised against ship-to-ship transfers and described the area as a “warning zone” where “dangerous military operations are taking place.”
So far, the war has caused a supply-side disruption of ~%15 net in oil, and between %15-30 in LPG, Ammonia, Urea, Sulphur, and Helium
So long as this remains a short-term(ish) disruption, the world can absorb it *relatively* gracefully. Some places will experience it as an inconvenience (moderate inflation) while others will be more severely impacted (food insecurity *and* steep inflation)
In the global scheme of things, not a *huge* deal. Messy and expensive, but not existential
On the other hand…
If we re-ignite the kinetic war, the very first thing that Iran is going to do is target core infrastructure across the Gulf. Refineries, storage facilities, terminals, pumping stations…. And not just oil, but also LNG, ammonia, urea, etc.
If *that* happens, we go from supply disruption to supply *destruction*
%15 disruption is something we can muddle through
%15 *destruction* is quite another thing, and has global consequences that we aren’t ready to face
@earl ….excellent rundown. I have been fretting about this since March. Some countries (mostly island nations like Japan) will be affected much more severely. Those nations’ economic activity is so intertwined with our own (US). They will have 1st level shocks and US will feel 2nd and 3rd levels hard.
I witnessed a small benign congressional seat in Kentucky purchased by a foreign entity this week. I have had it up to here with this corrupt bullshit of a nation. Perhaps it’s best if US attacks again and Iran follows through. These stupid insulted elites think they can control it. I will wager that they cannot. The US will become an especially violent place, particularly with so much anger already directed at our Federal Government.
The elites will have to go to their bunkers. The instant that happens they will become useless eaters. I fully expect their security teams and help to wipe them out with extreme prejudice and rather quickly.
Anyone in the Administration, Congress or public life (donors, SuperPAC administrators, podcast bros, influencers, and the like) who votes/influences/approves a renewed kinetic war should have the opportunity to feel the effects up close and personal by being posted to key GCC infrastructure sites. In advance.
Those impact globally, and *especially* so in less developed nations in the “global south”
Places where reserves in food and fuel are thin-to-nonexistent, where cost increases translate directly into shortages and where the local economy and average income levels have zero slack
Those are the places where the impact will be existential to big chunks of the population
In more developed economies, the impact will be less dramatic - spot shortages in manufactured goods (with some products/brands disappearing entirely), food and fuel inflation alongside job losses that disproportionately impact the lower %50 of the population.
The public/private debt markets and currency valuations are also vulnerable (again more concentrated in vulnerable economies - and it is worth noting that the US is *particularly* vulnerable in this case, as a debtor nation)
As a specific example, in a part of the globe I am particularly familiar with…
The national minimum wage in parts of SE Asia is $210/month, based on a 6-day workweek. A “middle class” income begins at about $600/month, and a professional (doctor, lawyer, etc.) earns in the $1500-2500/month range (all figures translated from local equivalents)
Most Countries in the region are almost 💯💯💯 dependent on imports for fuel and most agricultural chemicals
Gasoline was ~$4.25/gallon-equivalent in January. In some areas, that cost is now close to $7/gallon and rising. Diesel is higher.
A %50 increase in fuel costs hits agriculture and manufacturing particularly hard, with fertilizer costs adding to the headaches
There are, fortunately, a lot of smallhold farms, and most local transport is based on (often heavily modified) motorbikes
Even so, there’s a point where the countries themselves cannot afford to pay spot prices for fuel and fertilizer imports (because they cannot outbid wealthier countries in the region). That’s when transport and manufacturing mostly collapse, and both mass unemployment and food insecurity put the countries themselves at risk.
This is one example. There are similar examples all over the world
And - what happens in one of these impacts their neighbors in a ripple effect
It's the US and its satanic ally that has unleashed this carnage on everybody, but the Islamic Republic will be doing all it can to allow gasoline and fertilizer to gat through to non aggressor nations.
Once they agree to compensate her for damage caused, Hormuz will fully open again.
This disruption is not at the top end of the economic activity pyramid, it is at the base. Meaning the disruption will ripple upwards.
High energy prices are precisely the same as a massive tax increase on a population. The immediate impact is less consumption than normal, which leads to more economic distress, which in turn leads to other disruptions. This is why stagflation is bad.
Anyone saying that serious - much less the present critical - energy disruptions is not a big deal, is simply too young to remember what actual energy disruptions did in the 1970s.
Furthermore, this type of disruption is not marked by fast dips followed by fast recoveries - instead, it will be a slow drip down into Hell.
I was not downplaying the seriousness of the current situation
There is going to be a recession at a global level, and it gets worse in the long term each day the Straits remain closed
June is a tipping point as well, as various SPRs effectively run dry and we lost those “buffers”
It’s going to be ugly
And
It is *still* mild compared to what happens if the core infrastructure in the gulf is actually destroyed. That is the primary risk in the event of renewed strikes
That’s the difference between supply disruption and supply destruction
Disruption is painful - and more so each day. It will have ongoing effects for years, even if the strait were to open *today*
Destruction raises that global pain level by orders of magnitude and extends it out beyond a decade
That was the point I was making
Not downplaying what is already coming
Only saying that, as bad as it is and will be, in the event of renewed strikes… we may look at the 1930’s depression as the “good old days”
Fair enough, although the difference between years of disruption due to interruption, vs years of disruption due to infrastructure destruction, is not clear to me. It doesn’t take decades to rebuild this infrastructure.
Consider the difference between being locked out of your house for a month (with the power off, in summer), vs your house burning down alongside those of several of your neighbors (while the local power substation also blows up and your insurance company goes out of business)
We are, right now, looking at a couple of years of economic disruption after (so far) three months of disruption and a 3-4 month timeline to restore supply (after the Strait opens) to something close to pre-war levels. If the disruption extends further into summer, the ripples extend further accordingly
The assumption here is that the supply still comes back in some kind of reasonable timeline (that timeline really stopped being “reasonable” back in March/April, but I digress 🙏). So, start to finish, a disruption of between 6-9 months, with the first 3-4 months cushioned by drawdowns in various strategic reserves. This is already going to have a multi-year impact
Now. Assume that supply is just…gone. Until the supporting infrastructure is rebuilt. And in this case, those reserves are also mostly gone, so there’s no cushion left.
Sure, repairs and rebuilding starts … eventually, after the missiles stop and the repair crews can come in and clean up the wreckage and the components are manufactured and shipped and assembled. That’s six months to a year right there, after the war ends, before any serious rebuilding even begins
Some things can be rebuilt fairly quickly, others take a lot longer. Qatar, for example, is already saying 3-5 years to fully restore a single LPG facility that was only moderately damaged.
Rebuilding won’t be steady or in parallel across the region, either - the companies that make all the complicated bits can only work so fast, even if their own logistics/supply lines are fully intact (which isn’t guaranteed). Besides this, the crews that install and integrate all this gear are pretty specialized as well. Meanwhile, the staff that actually run the refineries and terminals and wells and suchlike have been laid off and scattered to other jobs elsewhere. They have to be located and rehired (or trained from scratch)
Given all this, you’re looking at a span of 2-3 years to get anything back at scale, and to get things back to %100 could easily take a decade
Now consider what’s happening elsewhere while all this is going on. Price increases for everything from fuel to food to manufactured goods eat into the economy from the bottom up while the price for the money supply that drives markets also skyrockets and capital becomes scarce at best
And all this lasts for at least as long as it takes to get supplies back online, plus the year-plus that it takes for those supplies to actually spread fully through the market, plus the next harvest cycle
And there’s the students who had to drop out either to help their families or because the schools closed or the costs just became too high to carry. They can - hopefully - pick back up where they left off, but they’re out of the market for a few years even after other things start picking up
And this is all the easy stuff, assuming that the world just gets along and works together and sings kumbayah while all the rebuilding is going on.
There is a view that demand destruction is already happening and will inevitably escalate as prices rise. Have you read the Substack of "The Honest Sorcerer"? Is demand destruction as bad, in practice, as supply destruction? All these matters are too outside my expertise for me to be able to take a view of it.
Demand destruction is not the same as demand *reduction*
What we are seeing now is the latter - it’s a behavioral response to higher prices, and supply and demand balance out
Demand *destruction* is a different kind of beast - it is usually a signal that a chunk of the economy in question has simply shut down, and may not recover in any reasonable timeframe.
Think factories closing, farmers not planting, that sort of thing - at macro-level scales
It is still a kind of rebalancing, just far far more brutal
Use the current gulf war as an example.
We have a disruption of ~%15-40 in the supply of a number of different critical commodities. The working assumption is that this supply will come back online within a few months (think 90-120 days from any “official re-opening” of the Strait for things to sort of normalize).
While these supplies are offline, countries are dipping into reserves, using price controls and such, while consumers are limiting non-essential usage - demand reduction (there *are* some countries whose reserves are dropping to the point where they soon won’t have a choice but to shut down some part of their internal demand if they can’t afford spot-prices for what they need - that is an early-stage form of demand destruction, but is limited in scope, even if it does ripple out into the wider economy)
If that supply source is physically destroyed (core infrastructure getting blown up, as the immediate case in point), taking that %15-40 of supply off the market on a long term basis (years to over a decade, depending on which specific bits you’re talking about), the industries that depend on those supplies don’t have any wriggle room - those factories and farms and suchlike are *gone* for the duration. That is demand *destruction* as it applies to the current situation
Supply cannot meet demand at any price, so the only option is forced reduction *at the same level as the supply destruction*
So you’re looking at a potential drop in the global economy of at least %15 - which is well past “global depression” territory, well into massive social unrest, mass unemployment, refugee crisis, local famines, and potential wars over resources
It ain’t pretty
Over time, alternative energy sources and other supply options can and will emerge, but those take years to be built and for the global infrastructure to adapt, and in the meantime the world remains a pretty chaotic and unstable and not particularly happy place
Just because some oil flows, does not mean that all is well, just as saying that some food is fine - except insufficient food still leads to starvation.
You said the disruptions would only impact aggressor nations: this is nonsense. The poor of the world in general; the poor nations of the world in particular are all going to get hurt. Even the "rich" nations are going to suffer, just less so in relative terms.
Only if Israel and USA keep attacking. When the USA withdraws from the Middle East, and leaves it in peace, then Iran reopens the Strait but charges a toll. We know that this toll is currently ca. $1 per barrel of oil (it's $1-2M per oil tanker which carry typically 1-2M barrels per ship).
So, Iran charges only 1% of current crude prices of ca. $100, and this perhaps could go up to 1.4% in case prices drop back to $60-70 from before Israel/USA strikes (1.4% ~ $1/$70).
These levels are hardly recession-inducing, compared to 1. the typical costs of insuring ships on the high seas (which was ca. $300-400k per round-trip before Israel-USA attacks, so in the same order of magnitude as Iran's toll), and in particular compared to 2. the additional tariffs and taxes charged even by the USA FedGov on oil products, let alone the sky-high taxes on petrol and Diesel in EU and UK (orders of magnitude larger than Iran's Hormuz oil tariff/toll).
All of that is, when USA admits defeat, withdraws from the Middle East (or at least the Gulf area), and then let's shipping through the Straits continue without harassment by the USA Navy further downstream, and without further attacks on Iran that will provoke retaliation against Saudi, Israel, and UAE, etc.
Trump can remove the recession risk by himself. He does not need "victory" in the ME for that. He just needs "no further hostilities" there. The only thing standing in his way is his own vanity. Oh, and his slave-owner-occupier, Netanyahu, of course.
The recession is here. Trump's vanity is part of the problem, I believe the larger part of the problem is who Trump's big donor friends are. They insist on their pound of flesh and are getting it.
The extent will be different than in the past, however. Non-China, East Asia will suffer the most followed by Australia/New Zealand. Europe will continue to muddle downwards. Africa will suffer but won't actually go into technical recession - but having low single digit growth is effectively a depression for them. The US will suffer but again, it will mostly be the middle class and lower.
Actually the republicans delayed the vote because they realised they did not have the numbers to defeat it, which was their purpose in calling for it- to extend Trumps's authority.
When votes are counted on unverifiable machines manufactured by unknown corporations owned by Billionaires .... The Billionaires always win.
The hard part about understanding this is understanding that the Billionaires hate one another.
Some call them Zionists. I don't because I insist they don't care about Israel at all other than as a proxy to funnel more wealth to themselves. They are Jewish Supremacists and Boston Brahmins. The kind of person who tells himself "God loves me because I am rich. Doesn't matter what crimes I committed to obtain that wealth."
let's see... they murdered JFK and Charlie Kirk, they've murdered hundreds of thousands of women and children, they rape prisoners, they blew up buildings on 911, they ran a pedophile blackmail ring to snare government officials, there has never been a ceasefire they haven't broken, so you think they might cheat at the ballot box? Of course they will cheat at the ballot box, it's nothing to them.
Iran has “popped its cherry” and no longer fears American military intervention. They will not only punish US allies in the region, but I predict the unthinkable will happen - the gulf states will be forced to start denying US bases and flyover, effectively kicking the US out of the region.
An even bolder strategy seems to be refusal to negotiate. What does the US do in that scenario? And finally what if the Iran leadership simply “disappears” hiding. Who do the US missiles attemp to strike? Humiliated, this forces the US to walk away, unvictorious. Survival for Iran in this scenario is a momentous victory. They force removal of US bases in the region, gain financial control of the Straits, massive win for Iran, at the cost of an old man who will be glorified for thousands of years.
It will become a sanctioned pariah state that not even corrupt congressmen will be able to support. With zero trade and zero support from the US, its essentially game over. The UN will mandate international occupation of Israel. Ironically, that is a path to permanent peace in the region.
I am afraid you do not understand the mentality of the modern people. 80% of the population has no principles and does not care. They firmly believe in Capetian America.
I am sure USA/EU would continue to trade with Israel. In fact the general population would like to see the explosions. It is such fun on TV.
",,,,,,,,,"not even corrupt congressmen will be able to support." As long as they need AIPAC money to get reelected they will support Israel. After all, what will the people do about it?
If Iran wanted nuclear weapons they would have them. They did theoretical design work & some implosion system on inert materials and explosively activated neutron generation initiator testing over two decades ago, then shelved their program instead of taking the obvious next step.
I expect they would need more like a month to do the last bit of enrichment and fabricate the parts IF they wanted to build nuclear weapons. But who knows, they might be well organized and beat my estimate.
The part I don't understand is why Iran does not insist that Israel meet the same scrutiny as to their nuclear program that is expected of them. More specifically, their ability to construct nuclear bombs. What would Trump argue why this was not reasonable?
I think that they successfully tested the 'nuclear lens' with inert material, and that not too long ago.
Intelligence agencies would track this much better than just me catching a snippet. That does not mean that their leadership wants to be informed or act on it.
According to IAEA (and as written about in the Israeli press), Iran carried out tests on the trickier weapons technologies involved in an implosion system and neutron initiator by 2003, then halted their weapons research program.
"Iran's key implosion system and hydrodynamic tests were conducted over 22 years ago, primarily in early to mid-2003. Intelligence assessments and reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that Tehran carried out these explosive tests—a critical step in developing a functional nuclear weapon—before formally halting the coordinated weapons program late that year."
I wouldn't believe anything Marco Rubio says at face value any more than I would believe anything Trump or Robert Kagan says at face value. Berletic's latest from yesterday is far more believable than what any of those proven liars say. A concise summary, 24 minute vid.
Every BB video is largely identical. With the same White Papers quoted. And The Empire is always winning really, as "I told you all along". Oh and don't blame poor proxy Israel, who are powerless and have no agency.
Berletic doesn't blame Israel? OMG. What in the world are you smoking? Yes, Israel is a proxy, but that hardly excuses them from the crimes they commit.
I have to digest your perspective some how. It is just so weird that I can't wrap my head around it. It's like giving the "button man" an excuse for committing the murder ordered by the "Don".
Brian Berletic is a good, honest and skilled analyst. There is only one weak point: he uses official reports that do not reflect anymore changes happend in the last 10-15 years.
In most videos he explains, how the USA act, having China as their longterm target. And here I don't agree with him: China as a target is passe! The strategic target of the USA changed accordingly and is very simple: drain as much as possible from Europe (now and in the near future) and project power on south/central America (ie apply the Monroe doctrine). This means: China is already out of scope and considered as a comparable player. And since China is not affected seriously by the charade in the strait of Hormuz, they allow Trump to play out his game, because it will accelerate the decline of the USA itself. So, why stop someone, if he's not keen to you and does one mistake after the other?
and to degrade democide and otherwise harm and 'vaccinate' their own population about whom they care less and despise more than they care about Iranians
They also fear their own population, hence the vaxs, drugs, ticks, chemtrails, doctored food, and rush to set up digital centers, yes it's obsolete tech but sufficient to run smart cities aka neofeudalistic concentration camps.
China is still, and always will be, the final opponent to be brought down. China knows this. You don't know the greed that lives in the breast of every American Oligarch. Sure, maybe today they will back off, but tomorrow they will return.
Warwick Powell explains Xi's Thucydides Trap reference. He stands alone in this understanding.
For the global south and Russia the verdict is clear: the hegemon lost and we entered a new era.
For the USA to digest this loss is another history, because there's no face saving exit.
I personally think, that for Trump it's totally egal: he did, what they told him to do, that's it.
But for Israel it's totally different. Without the support of the UK and USA (note: both created Israel as a proxy used to control the ME) their future has two options:
1) become a normal state
2) or migrate to Ukraine
In Istambul Abramovic said: Ukraine is Plan-B for Israel! Then came Boris Johnson, told Zelensky to not accept the agreements made in Istambul and at that point for me it became cristal clear: Israel will migrate to Ukraine.
This means: the USA will prolongue the charade of the strait of Hormuz as long as possible to weaken Europe and hope kinetic reactions from Russia. This is the ultimative bet of USA: a war between Russia and Europe, to sell afterwards goods and services (during the reconstruction phase) as done after WW1 and WW2.
But this Bet will fail too. Why? Because Russia and China are using Zelensky, to weaken Europe to the point of rebellions. This way they will get rid of the current political élites in Europe without a war. All this happens in real time. The more Europe crumbles the sooner this replacement of political élites happens. But it MUST happen bottom up to be consistent and durable.
Zionists definitely have their hooks in Ukraine, there are several areas of Ukraine that have already been settled by Zionists, they are race enclaves with security that blocks non Jews; they are not allowed to enter.
They oppose him because the powers that be don´t want people following the dots. They want people following the breadcrumbs to nowhere.
Brian does a very good job on his analysis and it has helped me at times. He is the one who pointed me to the value of official US think tank publications for viewing the US road map. In that direction he is spot on.
It is just a personal opinion but, there is a common trap he falls into, that I cannot agree with. In a sense, what he fleshes out supports the idea that the maniacs in DC actually have control of anything. If they did, fingers would be snapped and things would just happen in a quick and orderly fashion. Their piecemeal methods highlight their inherent weaknesses. Brian does not think this is so.
With what is happening right now, it is obvious that none of the US intentions are working well for them. They are losing in Ukraine, losing in Iran, with an ongoing process of getting kicked out Africa, while resistance in South America is growing. All while and at the same time a gigantic economic disaster is growing in the US itself, that was never and will never be part of anybody´s plan. The situation is completely out of control. No money .......... you don't get any honey buddy. The petrodollar was the fuel for this endeavor and it is rapidly going south.
Worse yet, the people who actually formulated these plans more than half a century are all dead. They have been replaced by incompetent fools, at this point. Rubio ........ is an idiot. Trump is a bonafide circus clown. What about Macron, Starmer, Merz, Von der Leyen and the rest of this insane posse over in Europe? And Modi? How it could be possible to get a bigger bunch of buffoons assembled at the same moment, to enact control of the world, is something I don't have the capacity to dream up.
And don´t worry, I know that these guyz and dollz leading the parade are not the actual shot callers. That said, it speaks volumes that this junk has been put out in front as the faces of power. They too, the actual powers, could be incompetent at this point and to me, are in total panic. You can read it like looking through glass. This point is about the occident and not the rest of the world.
So Brain is okay with me. He is right on the money about what is going on and a good source for analysis to reflect upon. He is in my mix. From my own personal view, he is off the mark on how it is proceeding. It is not succeeding, it is going down in flames.
There are hundreds of thousands of pages of white papers churned out by neocon think tanks. Finding the odd match can't be that difficult if you can be bothered to wade through them.
I do appreciate the way Brian does that boring stuff most of us can't be bothered to do. He's a very good presenter too. His South East Asia stuff is refreshing.
I think the destruction of the dollar and the US is the culmination of a long term plan. The data centers they are rushing to build show their hand. Once the dollar crashes and burns they will end cash, end the dollar currency, close banks, and under the guise of saving the country will mandate digital ID and issue purchase tokens, activated only for the obedient. It's coming near term, hence the rush to roll out the digital centers and the urgent need to crush Massie and all other disobedient in government. They plan all of it to happen during Trump's presidency IMO.
The writings on the wall for Trump. The excreta is heading for the rotor even if the strikes don't happen . No happy ending here , just bad and worse . The USA isn't immune to the coming chaos and it will finally change the international order . Ironically the nations who have suffered sanctions will be prepared best....
The US and its allies think it perfectly legitimate to use sanctions as an instrument of world domination, but throw a tantrum now some upstart has entered that game with their own chips (and way more justification).
yes, he is obviously right, but he doesn't tell what the direct effect is.
Weakening the bunch of countries under EU banner, as well as Gulf countries, with collateral effects on some of Far Eastern Asia, USA renders these countries unable to be interesting customers for American oligarchy
USA is a Ponzi scheme.
In order to keep the financial pyramid working, USA needs foreigners to buy its stuff, real and financial. They also need to buy abroad some important resources.
Obsessed by the idea to suppress competition from EU, they cut it from Russia, inducing economic and industrial degradation of the whole block.
In order to disrupt Iran and try to cut Silk Road flows, they induce economical troubles for Far East Asia.
In short: by rendering poorer the people who can buy American stuff, at a price point that is high enough for Americans who are wealthy to stay so, they destroy their customer base.
I don't agree with him about Israel being just a vassal of the US rather than calling a lot of/most of the shots but that doesn't change things much.
Making Iran's control of hormuz irrelevant along with seriously damaging the supply chains of iran's allies looks like a better option from their perspective.
He is quite off on this... as China is still getting Iran's oil atm and will continue to do so. Does that mean he's saying America is imploding the rest of asia ex-China? for what purpose? As china will then be the lone superpower standing. US is going to run out of the essential oil (diesel) it needs soon enough... then what? Brian is repeating his own tropes that are not based on what is actually happening in the real oil markets.
China will be fine, they have 1.3 billion barrels of oil in storage plus a massive electrified transport infrastructure and Russian and Central Asian oil and all the refinery capacity they need. Its Europe, S. Korea and Japan that would get screwed. Plus the US does not produce all the oil products it needs. Berletic has not done his research. This would be the end of the US Empire, not Russia or China.
Perhaps Brian's point is that that is the assessment of USA. That it's the USA that thinks this hurts China more than it really does.
We've seen how USA's "assessments" are based on no real evidence or proof of the claims. Just the supremacist PoV of a country (USA) that believes it is superior to everyone else and everything they do, will always be better and surpasses what another country does.
having spent 14 or so years all around USA, I think nobody in USA thinks they are superior in anything - it's just a fraudulent game they play to confuse their victims.
Kind of like Israelis pretending to believe they are somehow victims while actively genociding Arabs.
They heed Hitler's and Goebless advice to always blame their vicitms for their own crimes, and to lie outrageously because normal people find it hard to believe anyone normal would dare to lie so outrageously... so they believe it.
I live in the deepest south point of Texas. The US is sending fleets of tanker trucks across the border to Mexico filled with diesel, all day long, every day. They are literally lined up at the port storage tanks, I pass by it every day. Barges full of refined diesel are sent to the port from Corpus Christi, put in storage tanks, and then these tanks are filling the trucks. If diesel is in short supply here in the US, why would this be continuing? I see no slowing in this activity since the war with Iran began... Chip
Hi - yeah- there's a strong theory - Simon Dixon for instance - and Michael Yon - that this blockade is part of Agenda 2030 - Michael Yon calls it the Zionists - that want depopulation and famine and 'you'll own nothing ' and so forth. And China is the opposite of this - although they also signed on for Agenda 2030 - it looks alot differnt in China's vision than the zionists. Simon Dixon even talks about Iran's complicity in this - but I don't go along with that. here are a couple of links - https://youtu.be/07wrjhJvZNY - and this one by Michael Yon - https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/hormuz-blockade-panama-china-more?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Let's not forget Oliver Cromwell, Robert Cecil, Cecil Rhodes and their followers who preceded the Zionists in their dominance over immigrants and just plain folks in the US, Canada and elsewhere. Unhinged greed is nearly universal.
Pretty much my conclusion, I've been whinging about it for several weeks now. I'm quite tiresomely repeating such comments.
---------------
They WANTED the Gulf oil, petrochemical, fixed nitrogen & LNG infrastructures destroyed, leaving no physical possibility for "peace to break out" and resumption of the previously normal trade in Persian Gulf resources (ie, trade with China & other Eurasian/global South economies we wish to degrade, strangle, subdue and control). "It's not personal, only business", as was said in The Godfather.
What was planned (and so far has been accomplished) by shutting down shipping of petrochemicals, fixed nitrogen and sulfur through the straits of Hormuz is quite different than the MSM based assumptions on what constitutes "winning" and "losing".
The USA threw a monkey wrench into several vital supply lines for 2/3 of the world's populations economies, drove up US crude oil price by 50% (so far), increased US LNG prices by 50% to 250% depending on markets, guaranteed the USA a seller's market for LNG, light crude oil, refined hydrocarbons & most staple agricultural products dependant on man made fixed nitrogen fertilizers, plus increased price for US sourced sulfur. They also drove a LOT of investments from the Gulf states to "safe" US Treasury bonds.
BlackRock, Cargill, Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, Cheniere Energy and CF Industries Holdings are MASSIVELY profiting in a seller's market, stock values are all going up, up up. US Treasury can sell T bills to those pulling their money out of various degraded gulf states needing a "safer" venue for investments.
And wherever the war/blockade drove some (unconnected, non oligarch owned) business into bankruptcy with all of that, they made a tasty meal for our big investment bankers, buying up the failed “little people” owned concerns assets for pennies on the dollar and driving any remaining customer base towards their own businesses, concentrating wealth still further.
This isn't a crisis for billionaires, it's a great opportunity.
True that these billionaires are taking short-term profits. Can't argue with that. However, this will not last. The fact is that the petrochemical base of the Gulf States are not destroyed, only temporarily inhibited. If they really wanted them destroyed, they would have allowed israel to bomb them out of existence long ago and also they would have had the US military destroy Iran's industry as well - but they didn't. They are not stupid - they know that not only can the US not supply the entire world with these products from their own resources without endangering themselves, but that doing so would destroy Western civilisation, thus cutting the branch they sit on out from under themselves. They also know they can no longer stand against the forces of Iran, Russia and China.
No, they are not worried about the welfare of the the rest of the world, but about themselves. they have to maintain the economic viability of the West or they themselves will fall with it. There is no sympathy at work here - only business interests.
I think you're right Victor, but the Americans seem to see their allies primarily as economic competitors.
I think a de-industrialised Germany weakens the West, but I also think that many in Washington believe that a de-industrialised Germany represents an economic opportunity and therefore strengthens America. I mean it's absurd, but people do believe absurd things.
they don't care about western civilization or any other.
we are dealing with psychopaths - only instant gratification, gaining power AND degrading others (due to their general hatred for mankind) is important for them.
If they cared about western countries, they would not have been outsourcing all the production out of them over last 30 years or so.
And they are often not at all intelligent, or confident even nor happy. They know they are degenerates. I used to hang out with these people and their children when I lived in LA
I think it's a mistake to pathologize your class enemies. Have you known any billionaires? I have known several, including heirs, and on a personal level they usually have rigid and upstanding ethical codes and live what they, and most people, consider highly moral lives. They even do this is business, for the most part. They do believe in the "white man's burden," and they act accordingly for the most part. They think when their boats rise it's because the tide is rising for everybody - except the people they don't see or count. Most of the super wealthy I've known were high-average intelligence or above with good social skills. They just have different values. They cannot be educated out of being our enemies. The Hollywood crowd you ran into might be different, but the ones I've known are industrialists or tech mavens.
In my opinion, Berletic is usually spot on about America's true motives and plans. Hard to argue on his points. Where he fails though, is not assessing the forces arrayed against those plans, often leaving the reader (or viewer) with the impression that all is lost, the US is an multi-generational, all-powerful, evil genius who will eventually rule the world by its wealth and cunning. A wider analysis of where things appear to be headed would indicate that while the US still holds great power, economically and militarily, that power is not only degenerating but is doing so in a world that is rapidly changing, and not in the US's favour. Russia, China and Iran are changing the world and the US will have to change with it or wither away. As Martyanov says, real power can only exist by military means. The debased, thoroughly decayed MIC base of the USA is beyond the point of repair, eating away its foundations like rust on iron, eventually to collapse altogether. Outwardly, you don't sense this decay until it is tested as in Iran, but it's there nonetheless. Real military power is being transferred to the East - nothing can stop that - it is but a matter of time.
Does anyone actually believe that the US would or could be successful at controlling the entire world's energy flows without resistance? Do they really believe China or Russia would in the end not block those efforts? Do they really believe that the US has the military strength to even give that goal a reasonable chance of success in the long-term? I think not. Indeed, the political class in America are, like their Western allies, paid whores for the billionaires, the banks and international corporations, but are these private interests gaining or losing control of global geopolitics and future economies? I'll leave that assessment to the reader, but for me, I can see but one direction this is headed as a multi-polar world overtakes the deeply corrupted, self-inflicted, arrogant corporate powers of the West. Just look at how China treated the real leaders of America when they visited China recently. Did China bow down before these Masters of the Universe? Did these corporate giants strike fear into the heart of Xi? Or did they receive anything other than polite greetings and grand tours? The US might drive Continuity of Agenda, but can they maintain Continuity of the Nation?
Berletic isn’t claiming the US can permanently control all global energy flows without resistance. It doesn’t have to.
Maintaining hegemony does not necessarily require control if it can instead be achieved through disruption and managed insecurity.
Demolition isn’t control.
You don’t need to own the bridge to blow it up. You don’t need to control every energy flow to raise costs, fragment markets, force realignments, pressure competitors, and preserve relative advantage.
What you say is certainly true - for a time. USrael has the strength to cause one hell of a continuing problem in the world, thus keeping things unstable and granting huge profits to the Masters of the Universe. But their time is limited. The dollar is under real and existential attack now as the alternative global monetary and payment system are gaining strength as BRICS influence rises. The US military is on life support - too big to maintain, its MIC too corrupt to reform and its technological base being outrun by forces in the East. Without proper military strength the US can do little more than cause disruption, and as that strength ebbs even the ability to cause global disruption will begin to fail. The US internal social fabric is beginning to tear as political and business corruption becomes more evident and widespread, causing massive domestic disruption and Americans lose faith in their government and their system.
The end is becoming clearer as time moves on and the degenerative processes accelerate. It might well take years for this to work itself out, but I believe the end can be seen now and it is inevitable.
Berletic thinks this is “a grand plan” of the undefeatable deep state geniuses running the US.
Presumably the cream of this crop( the billionaires) going cap in hand to China to grovel with the Trumpet and being treated like the uncouth hired help is all part of this cunning grand plan.
Berletic is ex US military with a myopic focus on everything under the sun from a “US strategic “perspective, just as he was taught to be , like all the other former US military social media drones.
As much as I tend to agree with Brian's opinions in many things related with USA, I have to disagree with part of this.
For sure none of this is by accident, but there's no doubt the egomaniacal Trump was the only one that did it. Why ? Because he's a puppet of Israel. And no, I'm not of the opinion that Israel is running the shots in USA. Israel still is the vassal of USA, however Israel does have a powerful lobby in USA and now has a president that is completely controlled by it, thanks to the Epstein and no no doubt other scandals.
And that's why no other president of USA did this before Trump, because even though the Israel lobby already existed, the interests of USA as the hegemon, still prevailed.
So what are the interests of the USA in this ? The petro dollar. The petro dollar basically relies entirely on the exports of oil from the middle east region. Those exports are paid in dollars, which gives USA the "power" it still has.
USA is not "powerful" because of its military. it's "powerful" because of the dollar, that's used for trading all over the world and especially oil.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, this is impacting USA by weakening the dollar. Sure, USA will do some "cosmetics" and manipulation on the markets, to make the dollar look better than it is, but it's really losing its influence with the current situation.
It's the dollar that let's USA sanction countries to do its bidding. it's the dollar that let's the UA corrupt leaders all over the world to do USA's bidding. it's the dollar that's used to finance and arm terrorists groups around the world, to create chaos all over countries that do not bow to the USA. Without the "power" the dollar has, USA has also no power. Militarily speaking, USA is outclassed and outdated. It cannot bend any country to its will anymore, based on its military power. But USA can still cause a lot of problems to other countries, with sanctions, thanks to the power the dollar has.
Without the petro dollar or with its weakening, that power goes away.
And now, thanks to his ego and being a puppet of Israel, Trump is trying to save face and to save the dollar. If it goes all out and Iran wrecks the vassals of USA in the middle east, that keep the petro dollar going, it's over for USA's petro dollar. The only thing USA will have, is a massive debt, no way to pay for it and no way to force others to buy more of it.
So yes, none of this is by accident, but I have no doubts that it only happened because of Trump's ego and being a puppet of Israel. And now he's trying to save face without wrecking the petro dollar. By doing the things Trump has been doing - I'm going to attack, then I cancel it minutes later - just makes USA look powerless and that's the last thing any supremacist in USA (300+ million of them in USA) wants. it's happening because of USA's / Trump's / Israel's hubris that made them think Iran would be an easy target. They were very wrong, now they are scrambling to fix the problem they caused, which hurts the petro dollar immensely.
"...........it only happened because of Trump's ego."........... While I agree with most of what you say, Trump's ego would not be enough to do what he does if Congress were not bought and paid for by the Israel lobby and the money from the oligarchs with the same agenda. It is always a collective effort by the same forces that drive US policies regarding Israel. Trump's egomaniac behavior is what shifts the focus to him.
Since the War started, USD (as measured by DXY) has strengthened. A dollar shortage is developing in the world as capital flows to the US. Gold has decline in value (USD terms) by 20%. Countries are asking for USD swap lines to ensure they have USD liquidity.
If the global economy is wreaked (in relative terms), countries will become more dependent on demand for their goods from the US as demand from other countries declines. Many countries with large USD denominated debts will become even more anxious to get dollars to service those debts.
I tend to agree with you that in the long run, this sort of plundering is unsustainable. But it's never about sustainability. It's always about extending for as long as possible and let the future pay the bill.
Usually Berletic's assessments are insightful but this time he seems to have forgotten that Trump and the USA didn't choose to start this war. They were just following orders from Netanyahu. Strange though it may seem, the USA is a puppet State: Israel calls the shots. (The UK is too, though that doesn't matter much geopolitically),
I need help figuring out who you mean. I think Netanyahu and his appalling cronies (Ben-Gvir, Smotrich ...) really are following their own warped motivations to "cleanse" non-Jews from Palestine/Israel and dominate the entire middle east. Netanyahu doesn't need a boss. He's doing what he wants to do and has the power (backed by AIPAC et al) to command obedience/cooperation from the United States.
from what I have seen during 14 years spent there they are quite afraid of many things.
There is a certain panoramic fear I haven't seen in any other country.
Generally they are cowards , especially if loud like Trump.
I remember in 2008 many Americans were crying when banksters ran the economy into the toilet. Generally I don't think I know any brave Americans. Maybe that actor Woody who was one of the few apart from Southpark to make fun about the psychopaths behind CONVID scam. I met him years ago in California
Such an elegant theory for another American Fuck-Up.
Throwing a grenade into their own bases and ships, then dressing it up as "part of the bigger plan."
What the US fails at, they always find a few script writers to scribble their shit don't stink.
Berletic is a sincere sounding, but laughable clown when he reaches out to cobble Israeli and American failures as anything more than a hive of mediocrities with large mouths and thin skins.
That may well be the intention of those behind the curtain, but when never knows when a little girl from Kansas may suddenly pull it aside and there they stand, revealed as frauds of the first order. I believe they have grossly underestimated their opponents from civilizations and cultures older and wiser than their own, or at least I hope that is the case. Time will tell.
this is what I hope - I certainly don't believe Iran is playing 5Dchess with Trump and Net. but there is another world alignment going on - that is the US and south america and Iran in charged of the ME instead of Pax Judaica I think its in Simon Dixon's video I posted - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07wrjhJvZNY
Most are missing the significance of the gaggle of billionaires who accompanied Trump to China---what for? They didn't sign any business deals. . .
Here's what's going on, IMHO. China, like Russia, was for a time included in the WEF and its Agenda 2030. Then Putin realized Russia is only there as a scapegoat, and pulled the brakes in Munich in 2008. Russia was enemy number one from then on, because the Great Reset and the NWO must be global---otherwise whoever is left standing on the sidelines will just stamp on the dystopia.
China stayed on for some more time, and then they realized the same thing---that they are not really included by the Cabal on equal terms, that they are intended to be dupes only and excluded from actually ruling the qliphothic dictatorship of the NWO. Putin's example may have influenced Xi.
So China broke off from the NWO, and the series of purges there, starting with Jack Ma iirc, cleared the YGL and other Cabal plants from the Politburo and Party leadership. And lately from the army as well.
Now the postponed agenda is collapsing, and the Great Taking cannot proceed because Russia and China are standing off to the side, waiting to intervene once the final crisis is ongoing. Trying to eliminate Russia by force failed spectacularly. China, meanwhile, hardened itself against economic pressures, and in the nick of time, too.
So the Talmudist-Mammonist Cabal decided to once again include China in, this time as a "real" partner in the NWO, not just a stooge. At least that's what they say. And the Epstein-class oligarchs traveled to China to reinvite it into the NWO fold, ostensibly as an equal partner. If China takes the bait (like India perhaps just did), Russia will not be able to stand alone.
But looking at what is happening, I believe this desperate ploy failed---that Xi is now too wise to trust the vampire masters, and to join forces with them. The spectacular success of Chinese economy, once they purged the Talmudic influence, shows Xi that he is on the winning path.
Let us pray for Xi, and for Putin, and for their advisors.
The video was quite interesting, but among the many problems is correctly warns us about there is one FU it didn't address, the upcoming doom of Model Autophagy Disorder (look it up).
TLDR: AI LLM models have already been trained on just about every written and graphic content there is in the internet, including the content of major libraries, and without regard to so-called intellectual property rights. There is essentially no significant data left, other than. . . AI-generated content. But feeding on its own products causes AI to become deranged: the quality of output deteriorates sharply, in proportion to the percentage of regurgitated material. This is called by the apt acronym MAD, model autophagy disorder. I strongly recommend looking examples up on the net, to fully appreciate the tragicomic disaster.
What it means in practice is that the accuracy of AI output that we are experiencing currently is the peak; things will only deteriorate from now on, rather than improving, as is the expectation. Building mammoth data centers will not help, as the amount of available training data is already exhausted. The only original data that can be added to this is the contents of eavesdropping on everyday conversations of the populace, but that is very low quality content, and will hardly improve AI output.
So we may be already experiencing "peak AI", but do not yet know it.
As for the Minab massacre to which the video alludes, I do not believe it was an error, AI or otherwise. Taking into account the mindset of the Epstein class, it might have been intentional, and very sinister. AI just makes a convenient scapegoat. See also https://www.thewisewolf.club/p/epstein-was-a-cannibal-eating-children-witchcraft
Thanks for reply. I don't watch videos owing to time constraints, but I'm a bit confused by "the US and south america and Iran in charged of the ME instead of Pax Judaica". IMHO, those three make an unlikely combo to be jointly in charge of anything, much less the ME. I live in South America, have done for 22 years, and follow events here fairly closely. Recent elections down here put DJT-favored candidates in office in Argentina (Dec. '23), but recently saved in the legislature by a debt deal with Bessent), Chile, Paraguay, Bolivia and Ecuador, but in each case the new presidents are experiencing serious difficulties. Bolivia is in a state of near-open insurrection, the Chilean very newly elected prez is having to shake up his cabinet and is also experiencing rough sailing, Noboa in dollarized Ecuador is dealing with corruption charges and distaste for an increasing US military presence and Milei of Argentina is embroiled in a number of corruption cases, growing, large protests against his crippling destruction of domestic industry, asset-stripping, etc., plus his over-the-top support of Israel and his own bizarre personal behavior. He expelled the chief Iranian diplomat so there's no love lost between Argentina and Iran. The only pro-Iran oil power that counts is Brazil, not exactly an ally of the US. Colombia is still governed by an anti-US president and Venezuela, well, it ain't over 'til it's over.
As for the ME, I increasingly believe Iran will be the last man standing and the Arabs will have to deal with this reality and accommodate to it with the tacit approval of China and Russia and most of the Muslim world, be they Shia, Sunni or Sufi. The City of London (not the one governed by Mr Khan, but rather the enclave within it governed by the financiers from whom even King Chuck must obtain permission to enter) will likely have to accept the setback and concentrate their nefarious scheming elsewhere while the US regroups if it can.
This is a much more reasonable explanation for world-wide recession than the perhaps 1-2% toll/tarrifs that Iran wants to extract for oil tanker passage through Hormuz, which hardly shift the dial on crude oil prices. Let alone is shifting the dial on prices for consumer-level refined oil products in the USA, EU, and UK, including heating oil, petrol, and diesel, which are all inflated by Western exploitative taxes, tariffs, charges on their own populace.
The recession can easily be prevented by USA; but it is not being prevented. So it absolutely appears to be a wanted, desired recession: installing the USA as essentially a monopoly on oil exports -- blockading Russia and OPEC, at least for the USA vassal states.
and even though someone up there said Berlectic's theory doesn't include the financial aspects - if you want even the first part of this video - what Simon Dixon points out is that the UAE is growing rapidly financially - even with the blockade -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07wrjhJvZNY
Again, no analysis here, just crowing. It's wrong, but claiming victory for Iran seems so much simpler than the situation in Ukraine, where Russia, on the verge of winning for the past four years and threatening Europe with all sorts of dire consequences every other week, is still having its children targeted in schools by the US. Still with no consequences for the US.
Elena, the US is in the shit it is in right now in Iran, precisely as a result of these 'consequences', and it knows it, even if western publics have been blinded to that blaring fact.
The US is achieving what it wants in Iran just as it is achieving what it wants in Ukraine and Russia, just as it achieved what it wanted in Venezuela and Syria. And Azerbaijan. And Pakistan. And Europe and the Gulf States. The oligarchs couldn’t be happier.
You give too much credit to idiots who use the press and some folks who contort themselves to justify that Trump is still playing 5-D chess. The real world has moved on.... that's why it's been a steady troop of foreign leaders visiting Xi in the past month... one after another. Even Trump going hat in hand.. but you go on, repeating that US is in control.
Think I read it when I was 10. Finished Lord of the Rings when I was 9. I've been reading a shit ton since I was young though. Moved on to Dostovesky in my late teens.
My point being, destroying the Gulf trade in petrochemicals, LNG and fixed nitrogen are the INTENTS of this administration + Israelis and quite achievable.
If Iran responds to the next US attacks by wrecking all sorts of Gulf states infrastructure (or Israel does it as a false flag), USA deep state, various oligarchs & Israeli political parties get what they are after.
Trump, or whoever handles him, tried to reign in China with tarrifs.
China decided to squeeze the supply chain up stream with rare earths.
So Trump, or whoever handles him, decided to squeeze the supply chain upstream of rare earths in the Persian gulf... and that didn't work out.
So they're just going to destroy that upstream point in the supply chain entirely.
This would be more like flipping over the Chess board than anything. It really isn't that complicated, just kinda horrific consequences for a very large number of people.
Yup. No important billionaires will miss a meal while things get broken and afterwards, they expect get to own/control all of everything world wide.
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Neoliberalism. Named after the late 20th century economic theory that the rich should exercise total control over all aspects of society, and lie about it.
When the Neoliberals conquered the Earth, it wasn’t in face-to-face military battles like the ancient Romans or British used. Instead, the Neoliberals won by destabilizing and corrupting all competing power structures. Conquest is expensive. Tearing down is easy. To invade and occupy a nation-state would require planning, resources, and intelligence. To disrupt it? That only requires the technological high ground and a total lack of scruples. Destroy the power stations and water pumps. Sabotage their data networks, use your vast financial wealth to bribe political parties to betray their nation, block them from the international financial system, ensure that the mainstream media 24/7 slander and belittle and ignore the patriots.
The primary strength of the Neoliberals was their total lack of shame. You could catch them in lies, or contradictions, they could screw up totally, or rob you blind, and they wouldn’t care. They would just go on saying whatever they wanted to say and doing whatever they wanted to do. Neoliberalism is the application of power without moral restraint. You cannot debate them, you cannot reason with them. You can suck up to them and hope to be rewarded. You can do nothing and they will crush you into abject slavery. Oppose them in the slightest way, and they will destroy you by any means possible. Appeals to conscience are as useful as fighting cancer by asking for sympathy. Ultimately, the only winning strategy for dealing with Neoliberalism is to kill it
The US deciding to Destroy the energy infrastructure of the gulf makes more sense if the haven’t been getting what they want.
Taking control of hormuz and controlling who gets what was the obvious best case, particularly since China has the upper hand on rare earth's* and manufacturing, cutting off everyone is the next best case, and walking away and letting Iran keep control would be the worst from their perspective.
*China imports a good portion of metals, minerals, and raw materials from countries that will likely face famine in this scenario.
>Russia, on the verge of winning for the past four years and threatening Europe with all sorts of dire consequences every other week, is still having its children targeted in schools by the US. Still with no consequences for the US
Or for Ukraine.
It has been 24 hours now.
Putin did a public spectacle of promising retaliation and offloading it to the MoD. Nebenzya did his usual routine at the UNSC.
But have there been any kinetic strikes? No.
If there are none in the next 12-24 hours, this will go the way of Crocus City and countless other atrocities.
Furthermore, later on Putin said something about "investigating" what happened, which is exactly how the "response" to these things gets punted and buried.
The big question is what was the need for making such a public spectacle of the situation. Lots of atrocities on a similar or even greater scale have been committed in the "new territories" in the last four years. And even on "official" Russian soil. And the Kremlin just ignored the very fact that they happened. They would have done less damage to themselves if they did the same here than they are doing by making so much noise and still not doing anything.
As China patiently pointed out to these US thugs, they know how to restore fluent international trade. Back off the war they started- right off, back to their homeland, taking all their boats et al with them, pull everything back and remove the need for Iran to find novel ways of raising money, by giving it back all its frozen assets and lifting sanctions. Although if I was Iran I might demand all that for setting a discounted price for access (where the price can go right back up as soon as the US reneges on the deal), not giving up control of the Strait now, and keeping in play a further threat looming over the Bab el Mandeb. Hell, the US might have to start talking nicely to everyone, not willy-waving bombs around, respect their sovereignties and stop trying to run the globe.
The "Controlled Economic Demolition" is going according to plan and "The Great Reset" will be birthed. The West will be ruled the the Surveillance State with more wealth for the 1%.
It will be interesting to see whether "Western" debt serfs grow a spine and start fighting back against the totalitarian techno-fascism that their plutarchic elites are cooking for 'em.
"the totalitarian techno-fascism that their plutarchic (sic) elites are cooking for 'em."
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Plutarchic (or Plutarchan) refers to or is characteristic of the ancient Greek historian and biographer, Plutarch (c. 46–120 CE). The term most commonly describes a biographical style that focuses on moral lessons, personal anecdotes, and the human character of historical figures rather than purely on political achievements.
"plutocracy," 1640s, from Greek ploutos "wealth" + archos "rule" on model of monarchy, etc.
plutocracy(n.)
"government by the wealthy class; a class ruling by virtue of wealth," 1650s, from Greek ploutokratia "rule or power of the wealthy or of wealth," from ploutos "wealth"+ -kratia "rule". Synonym "plutarchy" is slightly older (1640s). Pluto-democracy "plutocracy masquerading as democracy" is from 1895.
The Doge of Venice was the ultimate plutocracy and lasted over 1000 years. It was created because the successful merchant class, fleeing the sack of Rome, needed a base that the Barbarians, who did not have a navy, could not invade.
Like ancient Athens, it was a democracy of the elites only. By all accounts, the majority of the entire population did very well. Except for the plague of course.
So far that has been the plan for years, but to date unsuccessful. What has changed to tilt the scales? First Russia and now Iran are giving Empire the finger. The future world order won't be run out of Wall Street. Sorry.
Let's think about this from Trump's perspective : IF he strikes Iran and Iran retaliates and drives the world economy into a severe depression, wouldn't it be more beneficial for the US?
The EU would have to kiss his ass and beg him for scraps for fear of a US oil export ban, China would be crippled for decades, and the middle east would cling even closer to the US for protection, while US oil revenues could fund a new round of reindustrialization.
Israel would easily triple in size with new conquests.
So wouldn't a second Great Depression put the US on top again for another century?
He's funnier in the flesh. In any case, the content is the same, Lego or flesh. We suspect he contracted the comedy, clowning, alienation virus when the green goblin paid him a visit in the Oval Office.
They WANTED the Gulf oil, petrochemical, fixed nitrogen & LNG infrastructures destroyed, leaving no physical possibility for "peace to break out" and resumption of the previously normal trade in Persian Gulf resources (ie, trade with China & other Eurasian/global South economies we wish to degrade, strangle, subdue and control). "It's not personal, only business", as was said in The Godfather.
What was planned (and so far has been accomplished) by shutting down shipping of petrochemicals, fixed nitrogen and sulfur through the straits of Hormuz is quite different than the MSM based assumptions on what constitutes "winning" and "losing".
The USA threw a monkey wrench into several vital supply lines for 2/3 of the world's populations economies, drove up US crude oil price by 50% (so far), increased US LNG prices by 50% to 250% depending on markets, guaranteed the USA a seller's market for LNG, light crude oil, refined hydrocarbons & most staple agricultural products dependant on man made fixed nitrogen fertilizers, plus increased price for US sourced sulfur. They also drove a LOT of investments from the Gulf states to "safe" US Treasury bonds.
BlackRock, Cargill, Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, Cheniere Energy and CF Industries Holdings are MASSIVELY profiting in a seller's market, stock values are all going up, up up. US Treasury can sell T bills to those pulling their money out of various degraded gulf states needing a "safer" venue for investments.
And wherever the war/blockade drove some (unconnected, non oligarch owned) business into bankruptcy with all of that, they made a tasty meal for our big investment bankers, buying up the failed “little people” owned concerns assets for pennies on the dollar and driving any remaining customer base towards their own businesses, concentrating wealth still further.
This isn't a crisis for billionaires, it's a great opportunity.
Exactly, this is what I was saying. Assuming Trump gives a shit about what US consumers pay at the pump would be a foolish assumption to make, particularly when Democrats seem to be falling over themselves to hand Trump more power.
The elites are clearly all in it together, and they're making out like bandits. Where then comes the pressure that will stop Trump from wrecking the world's economy so he and the elite can buy up everything for pennies?
How would that be beneficial to the ordinary, average American citizen? The US would be on top for another hundred years, you say. And? Should Americans who fear bankruptcy due to inability to pay their rent and medical bills be happy about that?
It wouldn't benefit them much at all, frankly. Perhaps some national pride about being slightly better off than everyone else when the world is on fire. But despite everyone's assumptions that Americans aren't able to stand suffering and inconvenience, I do think that Americans ARE in fact willing and able to make great sacrifices to ensure their elites remain powerful and wealthy.
We are told that Chinese are extremely obedient and docile after years of brainwashing, but when have you ever seen the Chinese hue and cry about billionaires being taxed or held to account? Americans threw a fit over the possibility of Mamdani thinking about taxing holiday homes in NYC.
"obedient and docile after years of brainwashing,"
I live in the US. The average person, as best I can tell, is totally ignorant of world affairs and how their country/the world is run. College grads are the worst and those from the Ivy League are the worst of the worst. After the Dems cratered in the last election, a female friend/neighbor cornered me, her hair on fire, to claim that the Trump victory actually PROVES how racist and misogynistic the American people are. This individual has been a college prof and is a VERY proud grad of one of the bigly famous eastern universities. I was left speechless. Here's a quarter, buy a frigging clue. I'd be very surprised if a random survey of Americans would show that even 15-20% of the population could find Iran on a map. Even today. Ukraine? Same... That number might be too high. We're all about sportz ball, FB and mas cerveza here on the fruity plain.
Dude... US fuel reserves are pretty much almost gone now... what exports in the near future are we talking about? 75% of americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.... once they go hungry, the system implodes. It really is that simple.. the elites truly f**ked themselves well this time round.... hoist by their own pathetic petards, as the saying goes. Be grounded in reality.. .the oil situation is such that most countries are pretty much running on air right now, except for China, which is ramping up and signed long term deals with Russia. That was one of the major points of Putin's visit to China....
I don't know, the assumption is usually that IF people feel pressure at the pump, that pressure gets passed upwards towards politicians. But we clearly see both Republicans and Democrats are extremely happy to be ruled by Trump, who is giving them lavish opportunities to fatten their own pockets.
The people aren't anywhere close to rebelling, and that may never come if the elites manage to send off enough poors to die in a proper, high-casualty war.
The key is when people actually start to go hungry….. then all bets are off. The planting season is now already affected… plus yields will be much lower with less fertilizer inputs… thus much bigger unrest in many places is baked in for the later part of this year.
Will Trump send his forces into Armageddon? No. He is a cheap game show reality TV host. He will do what the US does best, having failed to finesse a nation into its own internal collapse. Get the hell out of there. There is a long and glorious history of US retreat when it comes to the US starting hurt.
Not specific to POTUS #47, but to the entire circus which uses this clown as a front man, the famous Smashmouth Allstar lyrics come to mind:
They ain't the sharpest tools in the shed
They are looking kind of dumb with their fingers and thumbs
In the shape of Ls on their foreheads
Frankly, the losers need to take the 'L'. Personally, I think they all should have L tattooed on their foreheads before being transferred to a war crimes tribunal.
"He’s outright admitting that the US has no plan B, and that if Iran chose to keep the Strait closed indefinitely, the whole world would simply have to “think of something”. Has defeat ever been clearer?"
To me, this doesn't sound like Rubio admitting defeat. It rather sounds like preparing the minds for something.
Well, he is telling porkies. He went to NATO foreign ministers planning meeting in Stockholm precisely to plan further action, plans C, D, E for the next few years already written. Total war with total means.
Do expect big, strong attack on Iranian leadership, as soon as they are ready.
They just need more warships closing at Hormuz, which is the main object for the USA/Israel.
They will do use all available means.
Trump is happy to wait as long as it takes, for the French/British/Italian/Danish flotilla to cross into the Gulf of Oman to be sunk by mines and missiles from Iran, to have a casus belli and return his 3 air crafts groups close to Hormuz.
But also any of some 40 countries coalition can enter war directly, introduce conscription and send ground troops to Middle East., make some new colonies, partly occupy or bring down some small countries.
Each of this flotilla has around 10 warships. So at some stage 40-60 strong group fully loaded with any weapons, including laser and the other newest experimental ones.
The Hormuz Alliance can have hundreds support boats from many countries.
https://www.euractiv.com/news/europeans-have-capabilities-the-us-lack-to-secure-hormuz-strait-rutte-says/
Just recently HSS Dragon has passed the Red Sea, under cover of French Rafale.
All of them in the Arabian Sea, heading to Oman Gulf.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/05/dragon-adds-more-air-defence-firepower-to-french-carrier-strike-group/
The Europeans have capabilities but so has mama bear and her Panda sisters are even more ferocious
You don't stop the 3 WW just at the beginning of it.
You stop it only when defeated. That's the logic of any war.
Germany defeated totally in WWII wasn’t defeated, they keep going and turning like roasted chicken even in their grave.
The defeat happened already. You just haven't noticed yet.
Euros have no capabilities except in verbal terms.
Hot air is their strongest suit.
The USN is not suicidal.
“A ship’s a fool to fight a fort.” - British Admiral Horatio Nelson
So they will set up land bases in Iraq with small airfields, as Israel set up secret bases close to Iran's borders. Boats will be supplying them with amunnition using heavy helicopters.
Any place with enough water within 500 km from Iran's border is good enough, that in many countries. Fighters have range minimum 500 km with missiles another 300-600 km
Are you aware of what is currently going on in Southern Lebanon and Northern Israel? The Israeli army is being chewed up.
Do you seriously think the USA can set up an army in Iraq? An army with over a million soldiers?
The Iranians get live satellite data from the Russians and Chinese. This is not 2003. The West was never any good at land warfare.
Iraq army has only 180 k active, with 100 k paramilitary.
Until April there were in Iraq thousands soldiers from NATO. But only with light armament. They run away from Shia militias operating with drones. They can come back at any time with heavy armaments.
Iraq political elites and army are pacified. They hate Iran. They run 8 years war against Iran with NATO chemical weapons, killing tens of thousand Iranians and border Kurds. They would allow any army to come back to help fight pro-Iran militias.
Dream on. The South of Iraq is Shia. They sell oil and the money goes to the USA. They have to ask the USA for some of it.
The 8-year war against Iraq was when the country was controlled by the Sunni Baathists. That was a long time ago.
Today, in Ukraine, the West got Ukrainian Slavs to fight their Russian cousins. That is what propaganda and dictatorship achieves. Same thing happened in Iraq 40+ years ago.
Those days are long gone. The USA is a paper tiger.
Unfortunately the west is very good in asymetric warfare. It’s not over yet☹️
"They can come back at any time with heavy armaments."
These are just expensive coffins in today's modern drone warfare... Chip
You really do live in a fantasyland
Heading to hell.
As if these so called nations didn't already have more problems at home than they can deal with, by trying to bring down Russia.
The old phrase about the headless chicken comes to mind.
Wake me up when the Dragon or the CdG go through the straits. Your prediction of the CdG sinking and attacking Bushehr is ticking away. When will it happen?
What color is the sky in your world?
Britain enters war on Iran
"The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said a military blockade on Iran’s ports remains in place, warning that it is “restricting all traffic inbound and outbound from these ports.” ...
The notice also warned that enforcement actions could include “disabling and destructive fires upon vessels who do not demonstrate immediate compliance with blockading forces.”
The agency further advised against ship-to-ship transfers and described the area as a “warning zone” where “dangerous military operations are taking place.”
https://en.royanews.tv/news/70308/Tasnim%3A-US-naval-blockade-remains-in-force-despite-Trump's-statements
Bloomberg saying it could be as bad as 2008 is one of the biggest under-sells I have ever seen.
Yep, because that was no real war, just financial shenanigans cured (!!) by money printing.
Yep, and the primary driver this time will be energy. And they can’t print oil.
:-))
The oil will continue to flow, so there is no crisis.
Just with a premium attached, which Iran will use as compensation for what the Nuremberg Trials described as a crime worthy of hanging.
Globally, the oil continues to indeed flow
So far, the war has caused a supply-side disruption of ~%15 net in oil, and between %15-30 in LPG, Ammonia, Urea, Sulphur, and Helium
So long as this remains a short-term(ish) disruption, the world can absorb it *relatively* gracefully. Some places will experience it as an inconvenience (moderate inflation) while others will be more severely impacted (food insecurity *and* steep inflation)
In the global scheme of things, not a *huge* deal. Messy and expensive, but not existential
On the other hand…
If we re-ignite the kinetic war, the very first thing that Iran is going to do is target core infrastructure across the Gulf. Refineries, storage facilities, terminals, pumping stations…. And not just oil, but also LNG, ammonia, urea, etc.
If *that* happens, we go from supply disruption to supply *destruction*
%15 disruption is something we can muddle through
%15 *destruction* is quite another thing, and has global consequences that we aren’t ready to face
@earl ….excellent rundown. I have been fretting about this since March. Some countries (mostly island nations like Japan) will be affected much more severely. Those nations’ economic activity is so intertwined with our own (US). They will have 1st level shocks and US will feel 2nd and 3rd levels hard.
I witnessed a small benign congressional seat in Kentucky purchased by a foreign entity this week. I have had it up to here with this corrupt bullshit of a nation. Perhaps it’s best if US attacks again and Iran follows through. These stupid insulted elites think they can control it. I will wager that they cannot. The US will become an especially violent place, particularly with so much anger already directed at our Federal Government.
The elites will have to go to their bunkers. The instant that happens they will become useless eaters. I fully expect their security teams and help to wipe them out with extreme prejudice and rather quickly.
Our thoughts are not far different
My own thinking?
Anyone in the Administration, Congress or public life (donors, SuperPAC administrators, podcast bros, influencers, and the like) who votes/influences/approves a renewed kinetic war should have the opportunity to feel the effects up close and personal by being posted to key GCC infrastructure sites. In advance.
Japan and South Korea have China as an option.
Doubting China is going to want to come off their reserves. They do have a lot more than most. Then again they need far more than most.
As will Taiwan.
I think these disruptions you mention only impact aggressor nations.
Sadly not so.
Those impact globally, and *especially* so in less developed nations in the “global south”
Places where reserves in food and fuel are thin-to-nonexistent, where cost increases translate directly into shortages and where the local economy and average income levels have zero slack
Those are the places where the impact will be existential to big chunks of the population
In more developed economies, the impact will be less dramatic - spot shortages in manufactured goods (with some products/brands disappearing entirely), food and fuel inflation alongside job losses that disproportionately impact the lower %50 of the population.
The public/private debt markets and currency valuations are also vulnerable (again more concentrated in vulnerable economies - and it is worth noting that the US is *particularly* vulnerable in this case, as a debtor nation)
As a specific example, in a part of the globe I am particularly familiar with…
The national minimum wage in parts of SE Asia is $210/month, based on a 6-day workweek. A “middle class” income begins at about $600/month, and a professional (doctor, lawyer, etc.) earns in the $1500-2500/month range (all figures translated from local equivalents)
Most Countries in the region are almost 💯💯💯 dependent on imports for fuel and most agricultural chemicals
Gasoline was ~$4.25/gallon-equivalent in January. In some areas, that cost is now close to $7/gallon and rising. Diesel is higher.
A %50 increase in fuel costs hits agriculture and manufacturing particularly hard, with fertilizer costs adding to the headaches
There are, fortunately, a lot of smallhold farms, and most local transport is based on (often heavily modified) motorbikes
Even so, there’s a point where the countries themselves cannot afford to pay spot prices for fuel and fertilizer imports (because they cannot outbid wealthier countries in the region). That’s when transport and manufacturing mostly collapse, and both mass unemployment and food insecurity put the countries themselves at risk.
This is one example. There are similar examples all over the world
And - what happens in one of these impacts their neighbors in a ripple effect
All very true I'm sure.
It's the US and its satanic ally that has unleashed this carnage on everybody, but the Islamic Republic will be doing all it can to allow gasoline and fertilizer to gat through to non aggressor nations.
Once they agree to compensate her for damage caused, Hormuz will fully open again.
Disagree completely.
This disruption is not at the top end of the economic activity pyramid, it is at the base. Meaning the disruption will ripple upwards.
High energy prices are precisely the same as a massive tax increase on a population. The immediate impact is less consumption than normal, which leads to more economic distress, which in turn leads to other disruptions. This is why stagflation is bad.
Anyone saying that serious - much less the present critical - energy disruptions is not a big deal, is simply too young to remember what actual energy disruptions did in the 1970s.
Furthermore, this type of disruption is not marked by fast dips followed by fast recoveries - instead, it will be a slow drip down into Hell.
I was not downplaying the seriousness of the current situation
There is going to be a recession at a global level, and it gets worse in the long term each day the Straits remain closed
June is a tipping point as well, as various SPRs effectively run dry and we lost those “buffers”
It’s going to be ugly
And
It is *still* mild compared to what happens if the core infrastructure in the gulf is actually destroyed. That is the primary risk in the event of renewed strikes
That’s the difference between supply disruption and supply destruction
Disruption is painful - and more so each day. It will have ongoing effects for years, even if the strait were to open *today*
Destruction raises that global pain level by orders of magnitude and extends it out beyond a decade
That was the point I was making
Not downplaying what is already coming
Only saying that, as bad as it is and will be, in the event of renewed strikes… we may look at the 1930’s depression as the “good old days”
Fair enough, although the difference between years of disruption due to interruption, vs years of disruption due to infrastructure destruction, is not clear to me. It doesn’t take decades to rebuild this infrastructure.
Think scope, scale, and time
Consider the difference between being locked out of your house for a month (with the power off, in summer), vs your house burning down alongside those of several of your neighbors (while the local power substation also blows up and your insurance company goes out of business)
We are, right now, looking at a couple of years of economic disruption after (so far) three months of disruption and a 3-4 month timeline to restore supply (after the Strait opens) to something close to pre-war levels. If the disruption extends further into summer, the ripples extend further accordingly
The assumption here is that the supply still comes back in some kind of reasonable timeline (that timeline really stopped being “reasonable” back in March/April, but I digress 🙏). So, start to finish, a disruption of between 6-9 months, with the first 3-4 months cushioned by drawdowns in various strategic reserves. This is already going to have a multi-year impact
Now. Assume that supply is just…gone. Until the supporting infrastructure is rebuilt. And in this case, those reserves are also mostly gone, so there’s no cushion left.
Sure, repairs and rebuilding starts … eventually, after the missiles stop and the repair crews can come in and clean up the wreckage and the components are manufactured and shipped and assembled. That’s six months to a year right there, after the war ends, before any serious rebuilding even begins
Some things can be rebuilt fairly quickly, others take a lot longer. Qatar, for example, is already saying 3-5 years to fully restore a single LPG facility that was only moderately damaged.
Rebuilding won’t be steady or in parallel across the region, either - the companies that make all the complicated bits can only work so fast, even if their own logistics/supply lines are fully intact (which isn’t guaranteed). Besides this, the crews that install and integrate all this gear are pretty specialized as well. Meanwhile, the staff that actually run the refineries and terminals and wells and suchlike have been laid off and scattered to other jobs elsewhere. They have to be located and rehired (or trained from scratch)
Given all this, you’re looking at a span of 2-3 years to get anything back at scale, and to get things back to %100 could easily take a decade
Now consider what’s happening elsewhere while all this is going on. Price increases for everything from fuel to food to manufactured goods eat into the economy from the bottom up while the price for the money supply that drives markets also skyrockets and capital becomes scarce at best
And all this lasts for at least as long as it takes to get supplies back online, plus the year-plus that it takes for those supplies to actually spread fully through the market, plus the next harvest cycle
And there’s the students who had to drop out either to help their families or because the schools closed or the costs just became too high to carry. They can - hopefully - pick back up where they left off, but they’re out of the market for a few years even after other things start picking up
And this is all the easy stuff, assuming that the world just gets along and works together and sings kumbayah while all the rebuilding is going on.
There is a view that demand destruction is already happening and will inevitably escalate as prices rise. Have you read the Substack of "The Honest Sorcerer"? Is demand destruction as bad, in practice, as supply destruction? All these matters are too outside my expertise for me to be able to take a view of it.
I do follow the Sorerer 🙏
Demand destruction is not the same as demand *reduction*
What we are seeing now is the latter - it’s a behavioral response to higher prices, and supply and demand balance out
Demand *destruction* is a different kind of beast - it is usually a signal that a chunk of the economy in question has simply shut down, and may not recover in any reasonable timeframe.
Think factories closing, farmers not planting, that sort of thing - at macro-level scales
It is still a kind of rebalancing, just far far more brutal
Use the current gulf war as an example.
We have a disruption of ~%15-40 in the supply of a number of different critical commodities. The working assumption is that this supply will come back online within a few months (think 90-120 days from any “official re-opening” of the Strait for things to sort of normalize).
While these supplies are offline, countries are dipping into reserves, using price controls and such, while consumers are limiting non-essential usage - demand reduction (there *are* some countries whose reserves are dropping to the point where they soon won’t have a choice but to shut down some part of their internal demand if they can’t afford spot-prices for what they need - that is an early-stage form of demand destruction, but is limited in scope, even if it does ripple out into the wider economy)
If that supply source is physically destroyed (core infrastructure getting blown up, as the immediate case in point), taking that %15-40 of supply off the market on a long term basis (years to over a decade, depending on which specific bits you’re talking about), the industries that depend on those supplies don’t have any wriggle room - those factories and farms and suchlike are *gone* for the duration. That is demand *destruction* as it applies to the current situation
Supply cannot meet demand at any price, so the only option is forced reduction *at the same level as the supply destruction*
So you’re looking at a potential drop in the global economy of at least %15 - which is well past “global depression” territory, well into massive social unrest, mass unemployment, refugee crisis, local famines, and potential wars over resources
It ain’t pretty
Over time, alternative energy sources and other supply options can and will emerge, but those take years to be built and for the global infrastructure to adapt, and in the meantime the world remains a pretty chaotic and unstable and not particularly happy place
This is kind of the short and simple version.
Trite and totally wrong.
Just because some oil flows, does not mean that all is well, just as saying that some food is fine - except insufficient food still leads to starvation.
Strawman argument.
I never said “all is well”.
You said the disruptions would only impact aggressor nations: this is nonsense. The poor of the world in general; the poor nations of the world in particular are all going to get hurt. Even the "rich" nations are going to suffer, just less so in relative terms.
I never said that.
So the nonsense is yours alone.
There was a recession in 2008? I seem to have missed it.
Ok, settle down drama queen.
Only if Israel and USA keep attacking. When the USA withdraws from the Middle East, and leaves it in peace, then Iran reopens the Strait but charges a toll. We know that this toll is currently ca. $1 per barrel of oil (it's $1-2M per oil tanker which carry typically 1-2M barrels per ship).
So, Iran charges only 1% of current crude prices of ca. $100, and this perhaps could go up to 1.4% in case prices drop back to $60-70 from before Israel/USA strikes (1.4% ~ $1/$70).
These levels are hardly recession-inducing, compared to 1. the typical costs of insuring ships on the high seas (which was ca. $300-400k per round-trip before Israel-USA attacks, so in the same order of magnitude as Iran's toll), and in particular compared to 2. the additional tariffs and taxes charged even by the USA FedGov on oil products, let alone the sky-high taxes on petrol and Diesel in EU and UK (orders of magnitude larger than Iran's Hormuz oil tariff/toll).
All of that is, when USA admits defeat, withdraws from the Middle East (or at least the Gulf area), and then let's shipping through the Straits continue without harassment by the USA Navy further downstream, and without further attacks on Iran that will provoke retaliation against Saudi, Israel, and UAE, etc.
Trump can remove the recession risk by himself. He does not need "victory" in the ME for that. He just needs "no further hostilities" there. The only thing standing in his way is his own vanity. Oh, and his slave-owner-occupier, Netanyahu, of course.
The recession is here. Trump's vanity is part of the problem, I believe the larger part of the problem is who Trump's big donor friends are. They insist on their pound of flesh and are getting it.
What could be as bad as in 2008,?
That there will be a global recession, is 100%.
The extent will be different than in the past, however. Non-China, East Asia will suffer the most followed by Australia/New Zealand. Europe will continue to muddle downwards. Africa will suffer but won't actually go into technical recession - but having low single digit growth is effectively a depression for them. The US will suffer but again, it will mostly be the middle class and lower.
The US middle-class insists on destroying itself. A recession is the least of our problems.
War powers act vote delayed until June 2. Everyone saw what happened to Massie for opposing the war.
Actually the republicans delayed the vote because they realised they did not have the numbers to defeat it, which was their purpose in calling for it- to extend Trumps's authority.
Massie lost the primary. He's still in Congress.
He didn't lose the primary - it was stolen from him. https://dearscotland.substack.com/p/was-the-election-stolen-from-thomas
When votes are counted on unverifiable machines manufactured by unknown corporations owned by Billionaires .... The Billionaires always win.
The hard part about understanding this is understanding that the Billionaires hate one another.
Some call them Zionists. I don't because I insist they don't care about Israel at all other than as a proxy to funnel more wealth to themselves. They are Jewish Supremacists and Boston Brahmins. The kind of person who tells himself "God loves me because I am rich. Doesn't matter what crimes I committed to obtain that wealth."
AIPAC.
"Billionaires hate one another." That may be true, but they are united in supporting Israel.
let's see... they murdered JFK and Charlie Kirk, they've murdered hundreds of thousands of women and children, they rape prisoners, they blew up buildings on 911, they ran a pedophile blackmail ring to snare government officials, there has never been a ceasefire they haven't broken, so you think they might cheat at the ballot box? Of course they will cheat at the ballot box, it's nothing to them.
Even if that were true, it worked.
Iran has “popped its cherry” and no longer fears American military intervention. They will not only punish US allies in the region, but I predict the unthinkable will happen - the gulf states will be forced to start denying US bases and flyover, effectively kicking the US out of the region.
An even bolder strategy seems to be refusal to negotiate. What does the US do in that scenario? And finally what if the Iran leadership simply “disappears” hiding. Who do the US missiles attemp to strike? Humiliated, this forces the US to walk away, unvictorious. Survival for Iran in this scenario is a momentous victory. They force removal of US bases in the region, gain financial control of the Straits, massive win for Iran, at the cost of an old man who will be glorified for thousands of years.
I think that unthinkable will happen - US/Israel is going to use nuclear weapon.
It will become a sanctioned pariah state that not even corrupt congressmen will be able to support. With zero trade and zero support from the US, its essentially game over. The UN will mandate international occupation of Israel. Ironically, that is a path to permanent peace in the region.
I am afraid you do not understand the mentality of the modern people. 80% of the population has no principles and does not care. They firmly believe in Capetian America.
I am sure USA/EU would continue to trade with Israel. In fact the general population would like to see the explosions. It is such fun on TV.
I disagree, in the US 70% are against this war and younger voters have no love for Israel.
Where are they? How is it possible that their voices have no effect?
They are all over facebook, on telegram, they march in every major city in the US and worldwide.
For example, check out this search on Yandex
https://yandex.com/search/?text=pro+palestine+march+in+US+cities&lr=223
So what? Nobody cares what the peons think or like or want.
I care, and so do many others. This house of cards will fall.
https://yandex.com/search/?text=pro+palestine+march+in+US+cities&lr=223
",,,,,,,,,"not even corrupt congressmen will be able to support." As long as they need AIPAC money to get reelected they will support Israel. After all, what will the people do about it?
So far, nothing. Maybe the Massie theft will change that.
Don't kid yourself.
Don't kid yourself.
I believe not. This would be the redline not even Putin could ignore.
I was responding to.......... "US/Israel is going to use nuclear weapon."
I agree, IMO Israel used a nuclear weapon to take out lebanon's harbor and used a nuke in Syria at least once.
It is a question...
"the gulf states will be forced to start denying US bases and flyover, effectively kicking the US out of the region."
that is impossible. The gulf elites are connected to US.
poor Iran for 30 years they have been stuck at 2 weeks away from building a nuclear bomb
Isn’t Hormuz not the ultimate nuclear bomb, and to say that they humiliated 2 nations with nukes!
if they had that nuke thousands of Iranians would still be alive today including those schoolgirls
@Jade
If Iran wanted nuclear weapons they would have them. They did theoretical design work & some implosion system on inert materials and explosively activated neutron generation initiator testing over two decades ago, then shelved their program instead of taking the obvious next step.
I expect they would need more like a month to do the last bit of enrichment and fabricate the parts IF they wanted to build nuclear weapons. But who knows, they might be well organized and beat my estimate.
Postol agrees with you.
Hard to believe that a nation could recognize that it does not want nukes just "because".
A very old fashioned stance. Contrast with Pakistan?!
while being attacked exactly because they don't have it
The part I don't understand is why Iran does not insist that Israel meet the same scrutiny as to their nuclear program that is expected of them. More specifically, their ability to construct nuclear bombs. What would Trump argue why this was not reasonable?
Damn your impertinence, some pigs are more equal than others- Israel is Lord of the Swine, her masters designs are not subject to mere logic.
I think that they successfully tested the 'nuclear lens' with inert material, and that not too long ago.
Intelligence agencies would track this much better than just me catching a snippet. That does not mean that their leadership wants to be informed or act on it.
@Acco Hengst
According to IAEA (and as written about in the Israeli press), Iran carried out tests on the trickier weapons technologies involved in an implosion system and neutron initiator by 2003, then halted their weapons research program.
----------
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-857003
"Iran's key implosion system and hydrodynamic tests were conducted over 22 years ago, primarily in early to mid-2003. Intelligence assessments and reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that Tehran carried out these explosive tests—a critical step in developing a functional nuclear weapon—before formally halting the coordinated weapons program late that year."
Thanks, guy!
I wouldn't believe anything Marco Rubio says at face value any more than I would believe anything Trump or Robert Kagan says at face value. Berletic's latest from yesterday is far more believable than what any of those proven liars say. A concise summary, 24 minute vid.
https://youtu.be/yYmSopkgIwE
Berletic always makes sense to me. I don't understand the people who oppose him.
Every BB video is largely identical. With the same White Papers quoted. And The Empire is always winning really, as "I told you all along". Oh and don't blame poor proxy Israel, who are powerless and have no agency.
Yeah OK Brian. 😒
Berletic doesn't blame Israel? OMG. What in the world are you smoking? Yes, Israel is a proxy, but that hardly excuses them from the crimes they commit.
I have to digest your perspective some how. It is just so weird that I can't wrap my head around it. It's like giving the "button man" an excuse for committing the murder ordered by the "Don".
"Israel is a proxy".......I believe the proxy is the US.
An interesting perspective. Perhaps you are right. Kinda goes against Berletic's story. And Good's story.
Well, is it important? the point is the greed right?
I'm rooting for China. Perhaps that's a mistake.
he also misunderstood the current protest against extreme gvt corruption in Serbia
he thinks it's NAZO, EU trying to bring down their very own most obedient slave they themselves installed and control for some reason
Brian Berletic is a good, honest and skilled analyst. There is only one weak point: he uses official reports that do not reflect anymore changes happend in the last 10-15 years.
In most videos he explains, how the USA act, having China as their longterm target. And here I don't agree with him: China as a target is passe! The strategic target of the USA changed accordingly and is very simple: drain as much as possible from Europe (now and in the near future) and project power on south/central America (ie apply the Monroe doctrine). This means: China is already out of scope and considered as a comparable player. And since China is not affected seriously by the charade in the strait of Hormuz, they allow Trump to play out his game, because it will accelerate the decline of the USA itself. So, why stop someone, if he's not keen to you and does one mistake after the other?
and to degrade democide and otherwise harm and 'vaccinate' their own population about whom they care less and despise more than they care about Iranians
It's the AIPAc way
They also fear their own population, hence the vaxs, drugs, ticks, chemtrails, doctored food, and rush to set up digital centers, yes it's obsolete tech but sufficient to run smart cities aka neofeudalistic concentration camps.
China is still, and always will be, the final opponent to be brought down. China knows this. You don't know the greed that lives in the breast of every American Oligarch. Sure, maybe today they will back off, but tomorrow they will return.
Warwick Powell explains Xi's Thucydides Trap reference. He stands alone in this understanding.
https://substack.com/@fijirefugee/p-198044363
The assessment published in the link is correct.
For the global south and Russia the verdict is clear: the hegemon lost and we entered a new era.
For the USA to digest this loss is another history, because there's no face saving exit.
I personally think, that for Trump it's totally egal: he did, what they told him to do, that's it.
But for Israel it's totally different. Without the support of the UK and USA (note: both created Israel as a proxy used to control the ME) their future has two options:
1) become a normal state
2) or migrate to Ukraine
In Istambul Abramovic said: Ukraine is Plan-B for Israel! Then came Boris Johnson, told Zelensky to not accept the agreements made in Istambul and at that point for me it became cristal clear: Israel will migrate to Ukraine.
This means: the USA will prolongue the charade of the strait of Hormuz as long as possible to weaken Europe and hope kinetic reactions from Russia. This is the ultimative bet of USA: a war between Russia and Europe, to sell afterwards goods and services (during the reconstruction phase) as done after WW1 and WW2.
But this Bet will fail too. Why? Because Russia and China are using Zelensky, to weaken Europe to the point of rebellions. This way they will get rid of the current political élites in Europe without a war. All this happens in real time. The more Europe crumbles the sooner this replacement of political élites happens. But it MUST happen bottom up to be consistent and durable.
Zionists definitely have their hooks in Ukraine, there are several areas of Ukraine that have already been settled by Zionists, they are race enclaves with security that blocks non Jews; they are not allowed to enter.
Hello John.
They oppose him because the powers that be don´t want people following the dots. They want people following the breadcrumbs to nowhere.
Brian does a very good job on his analysis and it has helped me at times. He is the one who pointed me to the value of official US think tank publications for viewing the US road map. In that direction he is spot on.
It is just a personal opinion but, there is a common trap he falls into, that I cannot agree with. In a sense, what he fleshes out supports the idea that the maniacs in DC actually have control of anything. If they did, fingers would be snapped and things would just happen in a quick and orderly fashion. Their piecemeal methods highlight their inherent weaknesses. Brian does not think this is so.
With what is happening right now, it is obvious that none of the US intentions are working well for them. They are losing in Ukraine, losing in Iran, with an ongoing process of getting kicked out Africa, while resistance in South America is growing. All while and at the same time a gigantic economic disaster is growing in the US itself, that was never and will never be part of anybody´s plan. The situation is completely out of control. No money .......... you don't get any honey buddy. The petrodollar was the fuel for this endeavor and it is rapidly going south.
Worse yet, the people who actually formulated these plans more than half a century are all dead. They have been replaced by incompetent fools, at this point. Rubio ........ is an idiot. Trump is a bonafide circus clown. What about Macron, Starmer, Merz, Von der Leyen and the rest of this insane posse over in Europe? And Modi? How it could be possible to get a bigger bunch of buffoons assembled at the same moment, to enact control of the world, is something I don't have the capacity to dream up.
And don´t worry, I know that these guyz and dollz leading the parade are not the actual shot callers. That said, it speaks volumes that this junk has been put out in front as the faces of power. They too, the actual powers, could be incompetent at this point and to me, are in total panic. You can read it like looking through glass. This point is about the occident and not the rest of the world.
So Brain is okay with me. He is right on the money about what is going on and a good source for analysis to reflect upon. He is in my mix. From my own personal view, he is off the mark on how it is proceeding. It is not succeeding, it is going down in flames.
I wish well to you and yours.
Good post.
There are hundreds of thousands of pages of white papers churned out by neocon think tanks. Finding the odd match can't be that difficult if you can be bothered to wade through them.
I do appreciate the way Brian does that boring stuff most of us can't be bothered to do. He's a very good presenter too. His South East Asia stuff is refreshing.
I think the destruction of the dollar and the US is the culmination of a long term plan. The data centers they are rushing to build show their hand. Once the dollar crashes and burns they will end cash, end the dollar currency, close banks, and under the guise of saving the country will mandate digital ID and issue purchase tokens, activated only for the obedient. It's coming near term, hence the rush to roll out the digital centers and the urgent need to crush Massie and all other disobedient in government. They plan all of it to happen during Trump's presidency IMO.
The best laid plans .................
Fare thee well Frances.
Thank you John, the same to you, and confusion to the enemy!!!!!
The writings on the wall for Trump. The excreta is heading for the rotor even if the strikes don't happen . No happy ending here , just bad and worse . The USA isn't immune to the coming chaos and it will finally change the international order . Ironically the nations who have suffered sanctions will be prepared best....
Exactly, we saw how Iran was almost unaffected by the GFC. Now those immunised include Russia and to a lesser extent China.
The US and its allies think it perfectly legitimate to use sanctions as an instrument of world domination, but throw a tantrum now some upstart has entered that game with their own chips (and way more justification).
Brian Berletic -
IRAN - The US isn't trying to open the Strait of Hormuz - it is literally blockading it
and perpetuating a war that ensures insecurity around it indefinitely. The US is
engaged in a controlled demolition of Middle East energy exports
and a large part of the global economy dependent on those exports. It is playing games
to manage prices and markets as it does so - NOT trying to find a way "out" of
consequences everyone in Washington knew about before launching
the most recent war of aggression. The US simply doesn't want things to collapse
overnight - just like it managed Europe's decoupling from Russian energy (which is still
taking place). Theories otherwise are based entirely on believing US statements
face value, as if the US is in the habit of telling the truth especially when things are going
poorly? And yes, the US would rather pretend a bumbling president caused all of this
by "accident" than admit it is deliberately imploding Asian energy sources
and thus Asia's economy and beyond (just like it has to Europe already). That's why
elections, the White House and the US Congress exist - a layer between the actual
interests running US policy and the public - to serve as scapegoats and excuses easily
disposed of and replaced every 4-8 years.
As usual, Berletic right on the mark.
yes, he is obviously right, but he doesn't tell what the direct effect is.
Weakening the bunch of countries under EU banner, as well as Gulf countries, with collateral effects on some of Far Eastern Asia, USA renders these countries unable to be interesting customers for American oligarchy
USA is a Ponzi scheme.
In order to keep the financial pyramid working, USA needs foreigners to buy its stuff, real and financial. They also need to buy abroad some important resources.
Obsessed by the idea to suppress competition from EU, they cut it from Russia, inducing economic and industrial degradation of the whole block.
In order to disrupt Iran and try to cut Silk Road flows, they induce economical troubles for Far East Asia.
In short: by rendering poorer the people who can buy American stuff, at a price point that is high enough for Americans who are wealthy to stay so, they destroy their customer base.
I don’t think anyone should mistake the neocon plan for real wisdom. It’s just part of the plan for world conquest.
What is the counter argument to this perspective?
I don't agree with him about Israel being just a vassal of the US rather than calling a lot of/most of the shots but that doesn't change things much.
Making Iran's control of hormuz irrelevant along with seriously damaging the supply chains of iran's allies looks like a better option from their perspective.
He is quite off on this... as China is still getting Iran's oil atm and will continue to do so. Does that mean he's saying America is imploding the rest of asia ex-China? for what purpose? As china will then be the lone superpower standing. US is going to run out of the essential oil (diesel) it needs soon enough... then what? Brian is repeating his own tropes that are not based on what is actually happening in the real oil markets.
If the energy infrastructure of the gulf is destroyed, how would they still supply China? 90% of their production is shipped by sea.
China will be fine, they have 1.3 billion barrels of oil in storage plus a massive electrified transport infrastructure and Russian and Central Asian oil and all the refinery capacity they need. Its Europe, S. Korea and Japan that would get screwed. Plus the US does not produce all the oil products it needs. Berletic has not done his research. This would be the end of the US Empire, not Russia or China.
Perhaps Brian's point is that that is the assessment of USA. That it's the USA that thinks this hurts China more than it really does.
We've seen how USA's "assessments" are based on no real evidence or proof of the claims. Just the supremacist PoV of a country (USA) that believes it is superior to everyone else and everything they do, will always be better and surpasses what another country does.
having spent 14 or so years all around USA, I think nobody in USA thinks they are superior in anything - it's just a fraudulent game they play to confuse their victims.
Kind of like Israelis pretending to believe they are somehow victims while actively genociding Arabs.
They heed Hitler's and Goebless advice to always blame their vicitms for their own crimes, and to lie outrageously because normal people find it hard to believe anyone normal would dare to lie so outrageously... so they believe it.
psychopaths, after all do tend to self destruct
I live in the deepest south point of Texas. The US is sending fleets of tanker trucks across the border to Mexico filled with diesel, all day long, every day. They are literally lined up at the port storage tanks, I pass by it every day. Barges full of refined diesel are sent to the port from Corpus Christi, put in storage tanks, and then these tanks are filling the trucks. If diesel is in short supply here in the US, why would this be continuing? I see no slowing in this activity since the war with Iran began... Chip
Hi - yeah- there's a strong theory - Simon Dixon for instance - and Michael Yon - that this blockade is part of Agenda 2030 - Michael Yon calls it the Zionists - that want depopulation and famine and 'you'll own nothing ' and so forth. And China is the opposite of this - although they also signed on for Agenda 2030 - it looks alot differnt in China's vision than the zionists. Simon Dixon even talks about Iran's complicity in this - but I don't go along with that. here are a couple of links - https://youtu.be/07wrjhJvZNY - and this one by Michael Yon - https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/hormuz-blockade-panama-china-more?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Yes, depopulation would be nice for our capitalist masters. They need less people because of AI.
So that theory goes that the West depopulates and others don't. Then the war comes and 1.4 billion Chinese are dominant. Great theory Cotra.
Everybody depopulates
actually - that CIA site that published the forecasts - Deagle - gone now - said the depopulation was only in the west.
because of their general misanthropy
I think they want less people because they fear them. They especially fear veterans which is why they treat them so very poorly.
It's global jewry controlling the US and western govts.
other global psychopaths too, not just jews
Let's not forget Oliver Cromwell, Robert Cecil, Cecil Rhodes and their followers who preceded the Zionists in their dominance over immigrants and just plain folks in the US, Canada and elsewhere. Unhinged greed is nearly universal.
Pretty much my conclusion, I've been whinging about it for several weeks now. I'm quite tiresomely repeating such comments.
---------------
They WANTED the Gulf oil, petrochemical, fixed nitrogen & LNG infrastructures destroyed, leaving no physical possibility for "peace to break out" and resumption of the previously normal trade in Persian Gulf resources (ie, trade with China & other Eurasian/global South economies we wish to degrade, strangle, subdue and control). "It's not personal, only business", as was said in The Godfather.
What was planned (and so far has been accomplished) by shutting down shipping of petrochemicals, fixed nitrogen and sulfur through the straits of Hormuz is quite different than the MSM based assumptions on what constitutes "winning" and "losing".
The USA threw a monkey wrench into several vital supply lines for 2/3 of the world's populations economies, drove up US crude oil price by 50% (so far), increased US LNG prices by 50% to 250% depending on markets, guaranteed the USA a seller's market for LNG, light crude oil, refined hydrocarbons & most staple agricultural products dependant on man made fixed nitrogen fertilizers, plus increased price for US sourced sulfur. They also drove a LOT of investments from the Gulf states to "safe" US Treasury bonds.
BlackRock, Cargill, Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, Cheniere Energy and CF Industries Holdings are MASSIVELY profiting in a seller's market, stock values are all going up, up up. US Treasury can sell T bills to those pulling their money out of various degraded gulf states needing a "safer" venue for investments.
And wherever the war/blockade drove some (unconnected, non oligarch owned) business into bankruptcy with all of that, they made a tasty meal for our big investment bankers, buying up the failed “little people” owned concerns assets for pennies on the dollar and driving any remaining customer base towards their own businesses, concentrating wealth still further.
This isn't a crisis for billionaires, it's a great opportunity.
True that these billionaires are taking short-term profits. Can't argue with that. However, this will not last. The fact is that the petrochemical base of the Gulf States are not destroyed, only temporarily inhibited. If they really wanted them destroyed, they would have allowed israel to bomb them out of existence long ago and also they would have had the US military destroy Iran's industry as well - but they didn't. They are not stupid - they know that not only can the US not supply the entire world with these products from their own resources without endangering themselves, but that doing so would destroy Western civilisation, thus cutting the branch they sit on out from under themselves. They also know they can no longer stand against the forces of Iran, Russia and China.
They have, like Trump, grand plans.
because the US are superworried about the entire world and western civilisation, right?
No, they are not worried about the welfare of the the rest of the world, but about themselves. they have to maintain the economic viability of the West or they themselves will fall with it. There is no sympathy at work here - only business interests.
I think you're right Victor, but the Americans seem to see their allies primarily as economic competitors.
I think a de-industrialised Germany weakens the West, but I also think that many in Washington believe that a de-industrialised Germany represents an economic opportunity and therefore strengthens America. I mean it's absurd, but people do believe absurd things.
Yes, it is nearly always about money, isn't it!
they don't necessarily have a knowledge or understanding about what economic viability means western or even their own.
Money (often inherited in case of these psychopaths) does not buy you intelligence nor even preservation instinct
I think it's wrong to assume they are rational.
they don't care about western civilization or any other.
we are dealing with psychopaths - only instant gratification, gaining power AND degrading others (due to their general hatred for mankind) is important for them.
If they cared about western countries, they would not have been outsourcing all the production out of them over last 30 years or so.
And they are often not at all intelligent, or confident even nor happy. They know they are degenerates. I used to hang out with these people and their children when I lived in LA
I think it's a mistake to pathologize your class enemies. Have you known any billionaires? I have known several, including heirs, and on a personal level they usually have rigid and upstanding ethical codes and live what they, and most people, consider highly moral lives. They even do this is business, for the most part. They do believe in the "white man's burden," and they act accordingly for the most part. They think when their boats rise it's because the tide is rising for everybody - except the people they don't see or count. Most of the super wealthy I've known were high-average intelligence or above with good social skills. They just have different values. They cannot be educated out of being our enemies. The Hollywood crowd you ran into might be different, but the ones I've known are industrialists or tech mavens.
just like their other project: CONVID
A bit late to comment on your whinging...several excellent points.
In my opinion, Berletic is usually spot on about America's true motives and plans. Hard to argue on his points. Where he fails though, is not assessing the forces arrayed against those plans, often leaving the reader (or viewer) with the impression that all is lost, the US is an multi-generational, all-powerful, evil genius who will eventually rule the world by its wealth and cunning. A wider analysis of where things appear to be headed would indicate that while the US still holds great power, economically and militarily, that power is not only degenerating but is doing so in a world that is rapidly changing, and not in the US's favour. Russia, China and Iran are changing the world and the US will have to change with it or wither away. As Martyanov says, real power can only exist by military means. The debased, thoroughly decayed MIC base of the USA is beyond the point of repair, eating away its foundations like rust on iron, eventually to collapse altogether. Outwardly, you don't sense this decay until it is tested as in Iran, but it's there nonetheless. Real military power is being transferred to the East - nothing can stop that - it is but a matter of time.
Does anyone actually believe that the US would or could be successful at controlling the entire world's energy flows without resistance? Do they really believe China or Russia would in the end not block those efforts? Do they really believe that the US has the military strength to even give that goal a reasonable chance of success in the long-term? I think not. Indeed, the political class in America are, like their Western allies, paid whores for the billionaires, the banks and international corporations, but are these private interests gaining or losing control of global geopolitics and future economies? I'll leave that assessment to the reader, but for me, I can see but one direction this is headed as a multi-polar world overtakes the deeply corrupted, self-inflicted, arrogant corporate powers of the West. Just look at how China treated the real leaders of America when they visited China recently. Did China bow down before these Masters of the Universe? Did these corporate giants strike fear into the heart of Xi? Or did they receive anything other than polite greetings and grand tours? The US might drive Continuity of Agenda, but can they maintain Continuity of the Nation?
Bingo! Chip
Victor: Thank you for some interesting thoughts.
Berletic isn’t claiming the US can permanently control all global energy flows without resistance. It doesn’t have to.
Maintaining hegemony does not necessarily require control if it can instead be achieved through disruption and managed insecurity.
Demolition isn’t control.
You don’t need to own the bridge to blow it up. You don’t need to control every energy flow to raise costs, fragment markets, force realignments, pressure competitors, and preserve relative advantage.
No universal dollar, no hegemon. We no longer have an economy that functions primarily by production.
That leaves us with two options: print and spend or cut military and benefit spending.
I am betting Trump and our degenerate Congress ain't going to cut either significantly.
What you say is certainly true - for a time. USrael has the strength to cause one hell of a continuing problem in the world, thus keeping things unstable and granting huge profits to the Masters of the Universe. But their time is limited. The dollar is under real and existential attack now as the alternative global monetary and payment system are gaining strength as BRICS influence rises. The US military is on life support - too big to maintain, its MIC too corrupt to reform and its technological base being outrun by forces in the East. Without proper military strength the US can do little more than cause disruption, and as that strength ebbs even the ability to cause global disruption will begin to fail. The US internal social fabric is beginning to tear as political and business corruption becomes more evident and widespread, causing massive domestic disruption and Americans lose faith in their government and their system.
The end is becoming clearer as time moves on and the degenerative processes accelerate. It might well take years for this to work itself out, but I believe the end can be seen now and it is inevitable.
Michael Yon says its the Zionists Against China - Ayo Kimathis says its Jews vs Gentiles.
No reason why it can't be both. Ever listen to a NuttyYooHoo speech delivered to his native audience. We are here to serve.
Thanks, Mike Hucksterbee!
It's both at different levels and in different contexts. Zionists want to rule the world but the road goes through China.
"Does anyone actually believe that the US would or could be successful at controlling the entire world's energy flows without resistance?"
Cotra believes
Berletic thinks this is “a grand plan” of the undefeatable deep state geniuses running the US.
Presumably the cream of this crop( the billionaires) going cap in hand to China to grovel with the Trumpet and being treated like the uncouth hired help is all part of this cunning grand plan.
Berletic is ex US military with a myopic focus on everything under the sun from a “US strategic “perspective, just as he was taught to be , like all the other former US military social media drones.
Tiresome fucks one and all.
As much as I tend to agree with Brian's opinions in many things related with USA, I have to disagree with part of this.
For sure none of this is by accident, but there's no doubt the egomaniacal Trump was the only one that did it. Why ? Because he's a puppet of Israel. And no, I'm not of the opinion that Israel is running the shots in USA. Israel still is the vassal of USA, however Israel does have a powerful lobby in USA and now has a president that is completely controlled by it, thanks to the Epstein and no no doubt other scandals.
And that's why no other president of USA did this before Trump, because even though the Israel lobby already existed, the interests of USA as the hegemon, still prevailed.
So what are the interests of the USA in this ? The petro dollar. The petro dollar basically relies entirely on the exports of oil from the middle east region. Those exports are paid in dollars, which gives USA the "power" it still has.
USA is not "powerful" because of its military. it's "powerful" because of the dollar, that's used for trading all over the world and especially oil.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, this is impacting USA by weakening the dollar. Sure, USA will do some "cosmetics" and manipulation on the markets, to make the dollar look better than it is, but it's really losing its influence with the current situation.
It's the dollar that let's USA sanction countries to do its bidding. it's the dollar that let's the UA corrupt leaders all over the world to do USA's bidding. it's the dollar that's used to finance and arm terrorists groups around the world, to create chaos all over countries that do not bow to the USA. Without the "power" the dollar has, USA has also no power. Militarily speaking, USA is outclassed and outdated. It cannot bend any country to its will anymore, based on its military power. But USA can still cause a lot of problems to other countries, with sanctions, thanks to the power the dollar has.
Without the petro dollar or with its weakening, that power goes away.
And now, thanks to his ego and being a puppet of Israel, Trump is trying to save face and to save the dollar. If it goes all out and Iran wrecks the vassals of USA in the middle east, that keep the petro dollar going, it's over for USA's petro dollar. The only thing USA will have, is a massive debt, no way to pay for it and no way to force others to buy more of it.
So yes, none of this is by accident, but I have no doubts that it only happened because of Trump's ego and being a puppet of Israel. And now he's trying to save face without wrecking the petro dollar. By doing the things Trump has been doing - I'm going to attack, then I cancel it minutes later - just makes USA look powerless and that's the last thing any supremacist in USA (300+ million of them in USA) wants. it's happening because of USA's / Trump's / Israel's hubris that made them think Iran would be an easy target. They were very wrong, now they are scrambling to fix the problem they caused, which hurts the petro dollar immensely.
I agree Politugal. Israel does direct American policy, but usually along paths they are more than happy to tread.
And let's not forget, a lot more Israelis than Americans are being killed and injured in these stupid wars.
"...........it only happened because of Trump's ego."........... While I agree with most of what you say, Trump's ego would not be enough to do what he does if Congress were not bought and paid for by the Israel lobby and the money from the oligarchs with the same agenda. It is always a collective effort by the same forces that drive US policies regarding Israel. Trump's egomaniac behavior is what shifts the focus to him.
Since the War started, USD (as measured by DXY) has strengthened. A dollar shortage is developing in the world as capital flows to the US. Gold has decline in value (USD terms) by 20%. Countries are asking for USD swap lines to ensure they have USD liquidity.
If the global economy is wreaked (in relative terms), countries will become more dependent on demand for their goods from the US as demand from other countries declines. Many countries with large USD denominated debts will become even more anxious to get dollars to service those debts.
I tend to agree with you that in the long run, this sort of plundering is unsustainable. But it's never about sustainability. It's always about extending for as long as possible and let the future pay the bill.
Usually Berletic's assessments are insightful but this time he seems to have forgotten that Trump and the USA didn't choose to start this war. They were just following orders from Netanyahu. Strange though it may seem, the USA is a puppet State: Israel calls the shots. (The UK is too, though that doesn't matter much geopolitically),
Look, Trump and Netanyahu have the same boss.
I need help figuring out who you mean. I think Netanyahu and his appalling cronies (Ben-Gvir, Smotrich ...) really are following their own warped motivations to "cleanse" non-Jews from Palestine/Israel and dominate the entire middle east. Netanyahu doesn't need a boss. He's doing what he wants to do and has the power (backed by AIPAC et al) to command obedience/cooperation from the United States.
A load of short-sighted bullshit from an economically illiterate viewpoint!
Yes, Berletic is right. Most of the people here do not want to understand that. USA is resolute and not afraid.
Not afraid
from what I have seen during 14 years spent there they are quite afraid of many things.
There is a certain panoramic fear I haven't seen in any other country.
Generally they are cowards , especially if loud like Trump.
I remember in 2008 many Americans were crying when banksters ran the economy into the toilet. Generally I don't think I know any brave Americans. Maybe that actor Woody who was one of the few apart from Southpark to make fun about the psychopaths behind CONVID scam. I met him years ago in California
They are brave enough to destroy small countries.
Such an elegant theory for another American Fuck-Up.
Throwing a grenade into their own bases and ships, then dressing it up as "part of the bigger plan."
What the US fails at, they always find a few script writers to scribble their shit don't stink.
Berletic is a sincere sounding, but laughable clown when he reaches out to cobble Israeli and American failures as anything more than a hive of mediocrities with large mouths and thin skins.
That may well be the intention of those behind the curtain, but when never knows when a little girl from Kansas may suddenly pull it aside and there they stand, revealed as frauds of the first order. I believe they have grossly underestimated their opponents from civilizations and cultures older and wiser than their own, or at least I hope that is the case. Time will tell.
this is what I hope - I certainly don't believe Iran is playing 5Dchess with Trump and Net. but there is another world alignment going on - that is the US and south america and Iran in charged of the ME instead of Pax Judaica I think its in Simon Dixon's video I posted - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07wrjhJvZNY
Most are missing the significance of the gaggle of billionaires who accompanied Trump to China---what for? They didn't sign any business deals. . .
Here's what's going on, IMHO. China, like Russia, was for a time included in the WEF and its Agenda 2030. Then Putin realized Russia is only there as a scapegoat, and pulled the brakes in Munich in 2008. Russia was enemy number one from then on, because the Great Reset and the NWO must be global---otherwise whoever is left standing on the sidelines will just stamp on the dystopia.
China stayed on for some more time, and then they realized the same thing---that they are not really included by the Cabal on equal terms, that they are intended to be dupes only and excluded from actually ruling the qliphothic dictatorship of the NWO. Putin's example may have influenced Xi.
So China broke off from the NWO, and the series of purges there, starting with Jack Ma iirc, cleared the YGL and other Cabal plants from the Politburo and Party leadership. And lately from the army as well.
Now the postponed agenda is collapsing, and the Great Taking cannot proceed because Russia and China are standing off to the side, waiting to intervene once the final crisis is ongoing. Trying to eliminate Russia by force failed spectacularly. China, meanwhile, hardened itself against economic pressures, and in the nick of time, too.
So the Talmudist-Mammonist Cabal decided to once again include China in, this time as a "real" partner in the NWO, not just a stooge. At least that's what they say. And the Epstein-class oligarchs traveled to China to reinvite it into the NWO fold, ostensibly as an equal partner. If China takes the bait (like India perhaps just did), Russia will not be able to stand alone.
But looking at what is happening, I believe this desperate ploy failed---that Xi is now too wise to trust the vampire masters, and to join forces with them. The spectacular success of Chinese economy, once they purged the Talmudic influence, shows Xi that he is on the winning path.
Let us pray for Xi, and for Putin, and for their advisors.
fantastic comment - thanks RalfB - I didn't know why the idiots ( not Nividia ) were there. Did you see this interesting video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny_3PRz6Zeg&t=62s
The video was quite interesting, but among the many problems is correctly warns us about there is one FU it didn't address, the upcoming doom of Model Autophagy Disorder (look it up).
TLDR: AI LLM models have already been trained on just about every written and graphic content there is in the internet, including the content of major libraries, and without regard to so-called intellectual property rights. There is essentially no significant data left, other than. . . AI-generated content. But feeding on its own products causes AI to become deranged: the quality of output deteriorates sharply, in proportion to the percentage of regurgitated material. This is called by the apt acronym MAD, model autophagy disorder. I strongly recommend looking examples up on the net, to fully appreciate the tragicomic disaster.
What it means in practice is that the accuracy of AI output that we are experiencing currently is the peak; things will only deteriorate from now on, rather than improving, as is the expectation. Building mammoth data centers will not help, as the amount of available training data is already exhausted. The only original data that can be added to this is the contents of eavesdropping on everyday conversations of the populace, but that is very low quality content, and will hardly improve AI output.
So we may be already experiencing "peak AI", but do not yet know it.
okay good to know and remember -
As for the Minab massacre to which the video alludes, I do not believe it was an error, AI or otherwise. Taking into account the mindset of the Epstein class, it might have been intentional, and very sinister. AI just makes a convenient scapegoat. See also https://www.thewisewolf.club/p/epstein-was-a-cannibal-eating-children-witchcraft
Thanks for reply. I don't watch videos owing to time constraints, but I'm a bit confused by "the US and south america and Iran in charged of the ME instead of Pax Judaica". IMHO, those three make an unlikely combo to be jointly in charge of anything, much less the ME. I live in South America, have done for 22 years, and follow events here fairly closely. Recent elections down here put DJT-favored candidates in office in Argentina (Dec. '23), but recently saved in the legislature by a debt deal with Bessent), Chile, Paraguay, Bolivia and Ecuador, but in each case the new presidents are experiencing serious difficulties. Bolivia is in a state of near-open insurrection, the Chilean very newly elected prez is having to shake up his cabinet and is also experiencing rough sailing, Noboa in dollarized Ecuador is dealing with corruption charges and distaste for an increasing US military presence and Milei of Argentina is embroiled in a number of corruption cases, growing, large protests against his crippling destruction of domestic industry, asset-stripping, etc., plus his over-the-top support of Israel and his own bizarre personal behavior. He expelled the chief Iranian diplomat so there's no love lost between Argentina and Iran. The only pro-Iran oil power that counts is Brazil, not exactly an ally of the US. Colombia is still governed by an anti-US president and Venezuela, well, it ain't over 'til it's over.
As for the ME, I increasingly believe Iran will be the last man standing and the Arabs will have to deal with this reality and accommodate to it with the tacit approval of China and Russia and most of the Muslim world, be they Shia, Sunni or Sufi. The City of London (not the one governed by Mr Khan, but rather the enclave within it governed by the financiers from whom even King Chuck must obtain permission to enter) will likely have to accept the setback and concentrate their nefarious scheming elsewhere while the US regroups if it can.
yes I hope so too - as far as your last paragraph - and I hate Milei. And my comment that you are commenting on - was not well articulated.
This is a much more reasonable explanation for world-wide recession than the perhaps 1-2% toll/tarrifs that Iran wants to extract for oil tanker passage through Hormuz, which hardly shift the dial on crude oil prices. Let alone is shifting the dial on prices for consumer-level refined oil products in the USA, EU, and UK, including heating oil, petrol, and diesel, which are all inflated by Western exploitative taxes, tariffs, charges on their own populace.
The recession can easily be prevented by USA; but it is not being prevented. So it absolutely appears to be a wanted, desired recession: installing the USA as essentially a monopoly on oil exports -- blockading Russia and OPEC, at least for the USA vassal states.
and even though someone up there said Berlectic's theory doesn't include the financial aspects - if you want even the first part of this video - what Simon Dixon points out is that the UAE is growing rapidly financially - even with the blockade -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07wrjhJvZNY
Again, no analysis here, just crowing. It's wrong, but claiming victory for Iran seems so much simpler than the situation in Ukraine, where Russia, on the verge of winning for the past four years and threatening Europe with all sorts of dire consequences every other week, is still having its children targeted in schools by the US. Still with no consequences for the US.
Elena, the US is in the shit it is in right now in Iran, precisely as a result of these 'consequences', and it knows it, even if western publics have been blinded to that blaring fact.
The US is achieving what it wants in Iran just as it is achieving what it wants in Ukraine and Russia, just as it achieved what it wanted in Venezuela and Syria. And Azerbaijan. And Pakistan. And Europe and the Gulf States. The oligarchs couldn’t be happier.
Better to have a fanny than to be one Sandor.
You give too much credit to idiots who use the press and some folks who contort themselves to justify that Trump is still playing 5-D chess. The real world has moved on.... that's why it's been a steady troop of foreign leaders visiting Xi in the past month... one after another. Even Trump going hat in hand.. but you go on, repeating that US is in control.
Never read Dune, have you?
"The power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it."
Think I read it when I was 10. Finished Lord of the Rings when I was 9. I've been reading a shit ton since I was young though. Moved on to Dostovesky in my late teens.
My point being, destroying the Gulf trade in petrochemicals, LNG and fixed nitrogen are the INTENTS of this administration + Israelis and quite achievable.
If Iran responds to the next US attacks by wrecking all sorts of Gulf states infrastructure (or Israel does it as a false flag), USA deep state, various oligarchs & Israeli political parties get what they are after.
You should read more carefully. I didn’t say the US is in control. A surfer doesn’t control the ocean.
No, indeed. And he is often overcome by the BIG Kahuna.
This isn't 5-D or 4-D Chess though.
Trump, or whoever handles him, tried to reign in China with tarrifs.
China decided to squeeze the supply chain up stream with rare earths.
So Trump, or whoever handles him, decided to squeeze the supply chain upstream of rare earths in the Persian gulf... and that didn't work out.
So they're just going to destroy that upstream point in the supply chain entirely.
This would be more like flipping over the Chess board than anything. It really isn't that complicated, just kinda horrific consequences for a very large number of people.
Yup. No important billionaires will miss a meal while things get broken and afterwards, they expect get to own/control all of everything world wide.
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Neoliberalism. Named after the late 20th century economic theory that the rich should exercise total control over all aspects of society, and lie about it.
When the Neoliberals conquered the Earth, it wasn’t in face-to-face military battles like the ancient Romans or British used. Instead, the Neoliberals won by destabilizing and corrupting all competing power structures. Conquest is expensive. Tearing down is easy. To invade and occupy a nation-state would require planning, resources, and intelligence. To disrupt it? That only requires the technological high ground and a total lack of scruples. Destroy the power stations and water pumps. Sabotage their data networks, use your vast financial wealth to bribe political parties to betray their nation, block them from the international financial system, ensure that the mainstream media 24/7 slander and belittle and ignore the patriots.
The primary strength of the Neoliberals was their total lack of shame. You could catch them in lies, or contradictions, they could screw up totally, or rob you blind, and they wouldn’t care. They would just go on saying whatever they wanted to say and doing whatever they wanted to do. Neoliberalism is the application of power without moral restraint. You cannot debate them, you cannot reason with them. You can suck up to them and hope to be rewarded. You can do nothing and they will crush you into abject slavery. Oppose them in the slightest way, and they will destroy you by any means possible. Appeals to conscience are as useful as fighting cancer by asking for sympathy. Ultimately, the only winning strategy for dealing with Neoliberalism is to kill it
True. But if they are so all-powerful, who is going to do that?
My reading of the situation is that Trump went to China asking for mercy. Putin did the same some days later.
The US deciding to Destroy the energy infrastructure of the gulf makes more sense if the haven’t been getting what they want.
Taking control of hormuz and controlling who gets what was the obvious best case, particularly since China has the upper hand on rare earth's* and manufacturing, cutting off everyone is the next best case, and walking away and letting Iran keep control would be the worst from their perspective.
*China imports a good portion of metals, minerals, and raw materials from countries that will likely face famine in this scenario.
I think both you and Jullianne are right.
>Russia, on the verge of winning for the past four years and threatening Europe with all sorts of dire consequences every other week, is still having its children targeted in schools by the US. Still with no consequences for the US
Or for Ukraine.
It has been 24 hours now.
Putin did a public spectacle of promising retaliation and offloading it to the MoD. Nebenzya did his usual routine at the UNSC.
But have there been any kinetic strikes? No.
If there are none in the next 12-24 hours, this will go the way of Crocus City and countless other atrocities.
Furthermore, later on Putin said something about "investigating" what happened, which is exactly how the "response" to these things gets punted and buried.
The big question is what was the need for making such a public spectacle of the situation. Lots of atrocities on a similar or even greater scale have been committed in the "new territories" in the last four years. And even on "official" Russian soil. And the Kremlin just ignored the very fact that they happened. They would have done less damage to themselves if they did the same here than they are doing by making so much noise and still not doing anything.
Putin betrayed Russia. It is so simple.
Since Zelensky is still walking and talking, I conclude that the Russian “retaliatory” strike was a farce.
Rumors from not very reliable sources are that Magyar was taken out. Possibly Syrsky too.
We can hope.
Nothing short of Zelensky will persuade me Putin has gotten serious. And it should also include European assets.
Zelensky appeared a few hours ago, so yeah...
As China patiently pointed out to these US thugs, they know how to restore fluent international trade. Back off the war they started- right off, back to their homeland, taking all their boats et al with them, pull everything back and remove the need for Iran to find novel ways of raising money, by giving it back all its frozen assets and lifting sanctions. Although if I was Iran I might demand all that for setting a discounted price for access (where the price can go right back up as soon as the US reneges on the deal), not giving up control of the Strait now, and keeping in play a further threat looming over the Bab el Mandeb. Hell, the US might have to start talking nicely to everyone, not willy-waving bombs around, respect their sovereignties and stop trying to run the globe.
The "Controlled Economic Demolition" is going according to plan and "The Great Reset" will be birthed. The West will be ruled the the Surveillance State with more wealth for the 1%.
It will be interesting to see whether "Western" debt serfs grow a spine and start fighting back against the totalitarian techno-fascism that their plutarchic elites are cooking for 'em.
@Lux Aeterna
"the totalitarian techno-fascism that their plutarchic (sic) elites are cooking for 'em."
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Plutarchic (or Plutarchan) refers to or is characteristic of the ancient Greek historian and biographer, Plutarch (c. 46–120 CE). The term most commonly describes a biographical style that focuses on moral lessons, personal anecdotes, and the human character of historical figures rather than purely on political achievements.
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Plutocratic elites?
plutarchy(n.)
"plutocracy," 1640s, from Greek ploutos "wealth" + archos "rule" on model of monarchy, etc.
plutocracy(n.)
"government by the wealthy class; a class ruling by virtue of wealth," 1650s, from Greek ploutokratia "rule or power of the wealthy or of wealth," from ploutos "wealth"+ -kratia "rule". Synonym "plutarchy" is slightly older (1640s). Pluto-democracy "plutocracy masquerading as democracy" is from 1895.
See link: https://www.etymonline.com/word/plutarchy
The Doge of Venice was the ultimate plutocracy and lasted over 1000 years. It was created because the successful merchant class, fleeing the sack of Rome, needed a base that the Barbarians, who did not have a navy, could not invade.
Like ancient Athens, it was a democracy of the elites only. By all accounts, the majority of the entire population did very well. Except for the plague of course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doge_of_Venice
I suppose you've read Shakespeare's "Merchant of Venice"? :)
So far that has been the plan for years, but to date unsuccessful. What has changed to tilt the scales? First Russia and now Iran are giving Empire the finger. The future world order won't be run out of Wall Street. Sorry.
Let's think about this from Trump's perspective : IF he strikes Iran and Iran retaliates and drives the world economy into a severe depression, wouldn't it be more beneficial for the US?
The EU would have to kiss his ass and beg him for scraps for fear of a US oil export ban, China would be crippled for decades, and the middle east would cling even closer to the US for protection, while US oil revenues could fund a new round of reindustrialization.
Israel would easily triple in size with new conquests.
So wouldn't a second Great Depression put the US on top again for another century?
At some point the world will see what's happening, although I see no basis for hope in most of these comments.
"...although I see no basis for hope in most of these comments."
Then why are you here?
What book are you reading? Is it for adults or children?
We're in a world where we have to fact check the president of the United States against an AI generated Iranian AI Lego music video.
At this point we do have to assume that adults aren't really in charge anymore 😂
He's funnier in the flesh. In any case, the content is the same, Lego or flesh. We suspect he contracted the comedy, clowning, alienation virus when the green goblin paid him a visit in the Oval Office.
They WANTED the Gulf oil, petrochemical, fixed nitrogen & LNG infrastructures destroyed, leaving no physical possibility for "peace to break out" and resumption of the previously normal trade in Persian Gulf resources (ie, trade with China & other Eurasian/global South economies we wish to degrade, strangle, subdue and control). "It's not personal, only business", as was said in The Godfather.
What was planned (and so far has been accomplished) by shutting down shipping of petrochemicals, fixed nitrogen and sulfur through the straits of Hormuz is quite different than the MSM based assumptions on what constitutes "winning" and "losing".
The USA threw a monkey wrench into several vital supply lines for 2/3 of the world's populations economies, drove up US crude oil price by 50% (so far), increased US LNG prices by 50% to 250% depending on markets, guaranteed the USA a seller's market for LNG, light crude oil, refined hydrocarbons & most staple agricultural products dependant on man made fixed nitrogen fertilizers, plus increased price for US sourced sulfur. They also drove a LOT of investments from the Gulf states to "safe" US Treasury bonds.
BlackRock, Cargill, Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, Cheniere Energy and CF Industries Holdings are MASSIVELY profiting in a seller's market, stock values are all going up, up up. US Treasury can sell T bills to those pulling their money out of various degraded gulf states needing a "safer" venue for investments.
And wherever the war/blockade drove some (unconnected, non oligarch owned) business into bankruptcy with all of that, they made a tasty meal for our big investment bankers, buying up the failed “little people” owned concerns assets for pennies on the dollar and driving any remaining customer base towards their own businesses, concentrating wealth still further.
This isn't a crisis for billionaires, it's a great opportunity.
Exactly, this is what I was saying. Assuming Trump gives a shit about what US consumers pay at the pump would be a foolish assumption to make, particularly when Democrats seem to be falling over themselves to hand Trump more power.
The elites are clearly all in it together, and they're making out like bandits. Where then comes the pressure that will stop Trump from wrecking the world's economy so he and the elite can buy up everything for pennies?
How would that be beneficial to the ordinary, average American citizen? The US would be on top for another hundred years, you say. And? Should Americans who fear bankruptcy due to inability to pay their rent and medical bills be happy about that?
It wouldn't benefit them much at all, frankly. Perhaps some national pride about being slightly better off than everyone else when the world is on fire. But despite everyone's assumptions that Americans aren't able to stand suffering and inconvenience, I do think that Americans ARE in fact willing and able to make great sacrifices to ensure their elites remain powerful and wealthy.
We are told that Chinese are extremely obedient and docile after years of brainwashing, but when have you ever seen the Chinese hue and cry about billionaires being taxed or held to account? Americans threw a fit over the possibility of Mamdani thinking about taxing holiday homes in NYC.
"obedient and docile after years of brainwashing,"
I live in the US. The average person, as best I can tell, is totally ignorant of world affairs and how their country/the world is run. College grads are the worst and those from the Ivy League are the worst of the worst. After the Dems cratered in the last election, a female friend/neighbor cornered me, her hair on fire, to claim that the Trump victory actually PROVES how racist and misogynistic the American people are. This individual has been a college prof and is a VERY proud grad of one of the bigly famous eastern universities. I was left speechless. Here's a quarter, buy a frigging clue. I'd be very surprised if a random survey of Americans would show that even 15-20% of the population could find Iran on a map. Even today. Ukraine? Same... That number might be too high. We're all about sportz ball, FB and mas cerveza here on the fruity plain.
To quote the Wall Street Journal :
The future is not Chinese. We have Apple, the NBA and Sydney Sweeney. What do they have?
There's just so much to unpack in that one article title.
Zaki. No one really thinks the USA is run for the benefit of its citizens, my friend.
If the 1% benefit then that's "good for America".
Britain is exactly the damn same!
I know. The only thing I doubt about what you wrote is the 1%. That's used figuratively, but I think it's an even smaller number.
Dude... US fuel reserves are pretty much almost gone now... what exports in the near future are we talking about? 75% of americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.... once they go hungry, the system implodes. It really is that simple.. the elites truly f**ked themselves well this time round.... hoist by their own pathetic petards, as the saying goes. Be grounded in reality.. .the oil situation is such that most countries are pretty much running on air right now, except for China, which is ramping up and signed long term deals with Russia. That was one of the major points of Putin's visit to China....
I don't know, the assumption is usually that IF people feel pressure at the pump, that pressure gets passed upwards towards politicians. But we clearly see both Republicans and Democrats are extremely happy to be ruled by Trump, who is giving them lavish opportunities to fatten their own pockets.
The people aren't anywhere close to rebelling, and that may never come if the elites manage to send off enough poors to die in a proper, high-casualty war.
The key is when people actually start to go hungry….. then all bets are off. The planting season is now already affected… plus yields will be much lower with less fertilizer inputs… thus much bigger unrest in many places is baked in for the later part of this year.
On the other hand Bryan, a rising tide raises all boats.
When you run the world economy, and benefit hugely from it, destroying it is a dangerous and unpredictable strategy.
Will Trump send his forces into Armageddon? No. He is a cheap game show reality TV host. He will do what the US does best, having failed to finesse a nation into its own internal collapse. Get the hell out of there. There is a long and glorious history of US retreat when it comes to the US starting hurt.
Not specific to POTUS #47, but to the entire circus which uses this clown as a front man, the famous Smashmouth Allstar lyrics come to mind:
They ain't the sharpest tools in the shed
They are looking kind of dumb with their fingers and thumbs
In the shape of Ls on their foreheads
Frankly, the losers need to take the 'L'. Personally, I think they all should have L tattooed on their foreheads before being transferred to a war crimes tribunal.
"He’s outright admitting that the US has no plan B, and that if Iran chose to keep the Strait closed indefinitely, the whole world would simply have to “think of something”. Has defeat ever been clearer?"
To me, this doesn't sound like Rubio admitting defeat. It rather sounds like preparing the minds for something.