Ukraine Suffers Unprecedented Nationwide Blackouts as Grid Teeters on Edge
Somewhat swept under the rug by all the new commotion filling the news cycles today was the fact that yesterday Ukraine suffered a massive unprecedented country-wide blackout which even blew out major parts of neighboring Moldova.
Even the Kiev metro stopped working, with the situation described as apocalyptic by outlets.
The Moldovan outage explained:
For now, the situation is developing as follows:
0) At the time of the accident, the main power flows in the area are shown by blue arrows;
1) The 400 kV Vulcanesti - Isakcha power line is disconnected;
2) The emerging imbalance is likely to shut down local generation (Chisinau TPP and Moldovan GRES);
3) On the 330 kV Beltsy - Dniester HPP power line, there is a sharp change in power flow: from about 0.65 GW towards Ukraine to 0.35 GW towards Moldova. There’s nothing to maintain such a power level - Moldova, sorry, the line is disconnected;
4) But now, with a severe imbalance, the Ladyzhyn TPP (0.3-0.6 GW) needs to deal with it. Naturally, it can’t handle it - it’s disconnected;
5) And the cherry on the cake - the imbalance spreads to the 750 kV Vinnytsia substation (it’s the only one in Ukraine with 750/330/110 kV, i.e. it can operate directly into the distribution network). Naturally, there’s almost no reserve there, but the accident directly affects the nuclear power plant. And then it all went downhill)
PS. Of course, this is not the ultimate truth)
Needless to say, this happened literally a day after Putin had allegedly agreed on a energy ceasefire for Kiev, leading to the obvious possibility that he only did so because he knew the Ukrainian power grid was on its last leg and due to collapse any moment, anyway.
Granted, we don’t know just how long-standing this is—after all, it happened during a record deep freeze and once temperatures begin to warm there’s no telling if the grid will hold up much better over the long term. But one must admit that such a total nationwide blackout is virtually unprecedented so it certainly seems to suggest that a “point of no return” has been reached in regard to the Ukrainian power grid.
My very rough understanding of Ukraine’s power demands is as follows: Ukraine is down to 11 GW (Gigawatts) with winter demands usually being 16-18 GW. However, summer demands are reportedly around 12-15 GW which would suggest that Ukraine could generally survive at current power capacities once things warm up. That’s if Russia doesn’t take out the nuclear plants, which are said to provide 70-90% of Ukraine’s remaining power (roughly 7.5 - 8 GW of the 11 GW remaining).
Either way now the February 1st deadline for the so-called ceasefire has expired, so we are to assume that Russia will resume strikes.
Ukrainian outlets are reporting that in January Russia set a record for both total number of aerial bombs launched as well as specifically ballistic missiles. In terms of bombs, like Fab glide-bombs, Kabs, etc., Russia was said to have launched a whopping 5,717 in January, which averages to 184 per day:
As for ballistics like Iskanders, Russia was said to have fired 91 in January, averaging about 3 a day. These were instrumental in the final finishing-off of Ukraine’s power plants.
Another stark milestone has been the fact that for the second month in a row even official Oryx loss tallies show that Ukraine is suffering far more vehicular losses per month compared to Russia:
Losses this year according to Oryx.
> RU 162
> UA 252
Getting back to the power situation.
Stabilizing the power grid and restoring full nuclear power generation after today’s blackout will take 24 to 36 hours, stated Sergey Nagornyak, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy, Housing, and Utilities.
At the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, one unit was shut down due to an emergency, while nuclear power workers at another were forced to reduce power. Power was also reduced at the Rovno Nuclear Power Plant.
It’s difficult to know what to make of the nationwide shutdown—whether it’s a freak occurrence due to uncommonly cold weather, or if it’s a herald of things to come in the near future as the last frayed strands of the grid are snapped. But it certainly does not bode well for the long term future because with Western support dwindling, and Russian arms production only increasing, there is simply no conceivable argument to be made for Ukraine sustaining its national infrastructure.
That’s not to say Ukraine will surrender as soon as the grid totally collapses—other countries have survived far longer on far less in wartime. But it simply does not bode well, particularly for Zelensky’s regime. And there is now talk that the power shortages are starting to acutely affect even the military’s needs at the front, particularly given fuel shortages due to inordinate requirements for keeping civilian generators going; not to mention the disruption of railways for supply and logistics, etc.
Also, it should be mentioned that Trump’s urgent begging of Putin for the energy ceasefire can now be understood in a new light. The timing makes it highly plausible that intelligence informed Trump that Ukraine’s situation was nearing the brink and an immediate “intervention” was necessary to prevent total national shut down. Either that, or Zelensky himself simply called and begged Trump for this favor for the same reason.
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In the meantime, the Russian army has again been picking up momentum. After a long hiatus, several more settlements were again captured since the last report two days ago.
Most notably, the ‘Eastern Express’ has started rolling in the eastern Zaporozhye region, out of the Gulyaipole direction, capturing Sviatopetrovka also called Petrovka.
Russian Army liberated Petrovka in the Zaporizhia region
▪️Assault units of the 114th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army, in the course of fierce battles, established control over the populated area of Petrovka in the Zaporizhia region.
▪️As a result of the offensive actions, the enemy’s defense area of up to 5 square kilometers was taken.
▪️The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are estimated at 10 units of equipment and dozens of militants from the 225th Separate Motor Rifle Battalion and the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade.
Assault units of the 114th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Division of the 5th Army have taken control of Petrovka in the Zaporizhia region after fierce battles.
One interesting thing Russian forces were able to achieve with small advances is flattening of the entire frontline stretching from Pokrovsk down to the north-Gulyaipole line:
This was previously a series of major peaks and troughs, with salients with unsafe flanks poking out. By flattening the entire line, Russia has optimized logistics lines, covered all flanks, and essentially prepped the groundwork for new successful and protected breakthroughs westward.
A wider look, as well as a look at the new ‘bowl’ being formed over Orekhov between the new salients coming from east and west; on the west from the Novoyakovlovka direction, and on the east from the new Ternuvate bulge:
In the north, Lyman has become surrounded on three sides and is being choked off after Russians captured not only most of the dead zone on its eastern flank, but crept around from the northwest via the new Svyatogorsk direction that is expanding incrementally each day:
One of the most active areas over the past few days has suddenly been the Kharkov direction, where Russian forces expanded slightly westward from the northern Kupyansk zone, as well as out of the border areas.
After completely capturing Vovchansk, Russian forces are now continuing slowly down the Seversky Donets river, capturing most of Symynyvka and Hrafske, seen by the yellow arrow below:
There continues to be ‘rumors’ of more Russian troops being put on the Sumy border, with other small advances across the border in the area having happened. As we discussed last time—on top of the new advances in the Chernigov region—it’s clear that Russia is slowly building up pressure along this entire northern “buffer zone” in accordance with the ‘boa constrictor’ strategy. If the time comes that the AFU begins truly collapsing due to manpower shortages, then all the major northern cities will be within reach of Russian forces.
There are speculations that Russia’s “spring” campaign could heavily focus on this northern sector to really put pressure on the AFU’s ability to defend across every frontline.
From Sumy to Zaporozhye, the winter lull reveals the outlines of two potential large-scale operations shaping the year ahead
The above article has a good break down of the potential offensive vectors.
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In the background, the peace talks charade has been ongoing, with Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev having just come from another powwow with Witkoff and co. in Miami. Afterwards, a new tripartite meeting with Russia and Ukraine was “postponed”—an indication that there is still no “eye-to-eye” between parties at all, and the various meetings remain merely political theater for the sake of each side being able to comfort its audience with the illusion that “peace” is being worked on.
Zelensky has stayed adamant that he will not give up Donbass. It seems likely that once Russia wins back the remaining Donbass regions by force, an unprecedented push for ceasefire will begin from Ukraine and its backers. They will claim that Putin now has no further reason to continue the war, using the continuation as “proof” that Russia never had any intention to stop the war and that Zelensky was right in not giving up the territory—which will further yield hysteric calls for more arming of Ukraine to thwart the “double-crossing” Putin. In reality, we will have all known that it is the West that is playing at devious games by willfully ignoring Russia’s various demands, playing “dumb” and lying by omission by pretending the Donbass issue is the only one remaining, as the above NYT article does.
Either way, Ukraine is set to experience further unseasonably low temperatures this week, particularly tomorrow night:
This is likely set to strain the power grid again—and with the supposed “ceasefire” having ended, should Russia resume its major energy strikes, particularly on Kiev, things could get really ugly.
And if things do get even worse for Ukraine, and the cries of ‘humanitarian disaster!’ become ever-more shrill, let us remember one important fact. Whenever Ukrainians themselves had the chance to strangle the Novorossiyans via resources, they used it. After the war started, Ukraine destroyed the Seversky Donets canal which supplied water to Donbass, resulting in mass water shortages in Donetsk that remain to this day. It forced Russia to construct an emergency water canal from Rostov to Donetsk to alleviate the threat of major regional water shortages, though to this day it is unknown if it is fully functional yet, as it had only undergone publicized “tests” previously. Some reports claim it is functioning but “under-performing” and not fulfilling its objective of adequately resupplying Donetsk.
Even NYT had reported on it last year, though the rag naturally refused to name the culprit of the canal’s destruction, using the famous Gaza ‘passive voice’ technique to say it had simply been “destroyed during Russia’s offensive”:
Most famously of all, Ukraine blockaded Crimea’s water supply by damming the North Crimean Canal which led to notoriously severe droughts and humanitarian issues in Crimea, which the Ukrainians and their Western sponsors were absolutely gloat-happy over. Russia only managed to resolve the issue after finally taking control of the artificial dam in 2022 and destroying it to allow water to flow to Crimean citizens for the first time since 2014.
As per usual, we are faced with the West’s odious hypocrisies. Just as in Serbia in ‘99, wherein NATO’s spokesman Jamie Shea remarked:
So, the Rules Based Order deems it acceptable to coerce war conditions via water and power grid leverage. Russia, it seems, is only following precedent.
By the way, visit Mr. Shea’s Wiki for some delicious digi-vandalism.
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Let us remember that the US regarded it as entirely justifiable to drop an atom bomb on a nation that just would not face reality and admit defeat.
The kindest thing Russia could do is keep up the pressure. Short moratoriums for weather or other excuses just prolong the agony of the citizens.