Things Go Haywire as Israeli Escalation Throws Iran Conflict into Dangerous New Phase
Things really hit the fan earlier today after Iran’s largest natural gas field, the South Pars, was struck by Israel. This field reportedly accounts for 75% of Iran’s natural gas production and 80-85% of its electric grid.
This of course came directly after Israel had assassinated Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Council Ali Larijani in a strike that was said to have also killed upwards of 100+ civilians in the vicinity, as it leveled the apartment block he was in, and possibly even surrounding buildings.
This led to Iran immediately escalating with strikes against energy targets in both Israel and the Gulf, particularly hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas hub said to be the world’s largest:
The strike was successful and was said to have done massive damage to the facility, which some experts are writing is irreparable.
Worlds most sophisticated gas processing plant, took 14 years to build
Saudi Arabia likewise claims they “intercepted” several ballistic missiles headed to Riyadh.
But the most significant development from this sudden firestorm is the revelation that the US did not in fact authorize or participate in these unilateral Israeli strikes, despite earliest reports indicating they were done in tandem. Rumors filtered in throughout the day until Trump finally confirmed it himself in a social media rant wherein he appeared to tongue-lash Israel for its impudence, while simultaneously threatening Iran with more barbaric destruction:
Reports continue surging forth about Trump being furious at Israel for igniting this regional firestorm which has wrought economic havoc that continues spiraling out of control.
White House officials are bracing for a dramatic rupture between Donald Trump and his Israeli counterpart as the president’s new conflict in the Middle East rages on.
Three Trump administration insiders told Axios on Wednesday “they believe he’ll want to end major operations before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Israel is obviously escalating the conflict deliberately in order to ensure no off-ramp exists, and that US—and preferably its Gulf allies—commit to a total and decisive destruction of Iran.
Israel is doing this via two simultaneous strategies: first by eliminating all the “moderates” and rational people within Iran’s leadership to ensure that only hardliners remain who will push for maximum punishment against the region. And second, by crossing Iran’s “red lines” in hitting its most sensitive economic and energy sites in order to spur Iran’s retaliation against equally critical sites throughout the region to ignite as big a firestorm as possible which can engulf everyone and coerce the entire world into “finishing off” Iran once and for all.
Now Iran has also deployed its speedboats into the Gulf—the same ones Trump claimed were “AI”—with some sources claiming they have been mining the the Strait, with at least one tanker seen on fire nearby:
30+ Iranians Speed boats along with support boats maybe mining the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz.
They are crossing between Iran and Oman waters freely.
The last 24-hours shows the Strait empty:
Trump in the meantime has continued comically flip-flopping like a headless chicken, in turn claiming the US can single-handedly free the Strait, then claiming the US will infact walk away and leave the problem to be dealt with by those whom it affects most.
But the claims that the Strait blockage doesn’t affect the US because the country doesn’t get its oil from there are specious: the countries that do get their oil from the Strait are not only intrinsically tied into the globalized economic system and supply chain network, but they provide products the US relies upon whose prices are tied to oil production in many direct and indirect ways. In short, the skyrocketing oil prices will have many second and third-order consequences beyond the limited ken of Donigula and his posse of myopic gnomes.
In fact, something important needs saying: the US’s totally aimless campaign of wanton and indiscriminate destruction in Iran is definitionally tantamount to terrorism. An operation requires a stated strategic objective to qualify as a “war” or military action of some sort, legitimate or not. Trump’s clumsy bomb-fest—during which he proudly boasts he can “bomb” certain Iranian targets “for fun”—does not fit that description, and as such definitionally qualifies as a campaign of terrorism against a sovereign state and its civilian population. Let’s not even mention what the US is currently doing to Cuba, with the blockade having collapsed the nation’s entire electric grid as of yesterday.
The closest the US has come to stated goals in this debacle in fact align with definitional terrorism: the US wants to create economic hardship and infrastructural pain in the country which would spur the populace into overthrowing “the regime”. Additionally, many of US’s actual verifiable strikes were clearcut cases of terrorism, not least of which being the sadistically wanton attack on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school in Minab which slaughtered upwards of 170+ children.
The disastrous campaign is going to badly that even arch-neocon grandees like Robert Kagan and Bill Kristol are starting to question US’s fatal attachment to Israel:
There are continued rumors that Trump is again desperately seeking a secret off-ramp with Iran, but Iran no longer has ears for negotiations and is adopting the Russian stance of requiring a full reset of the regional security architecture which ensures Iran’s safety and interests before any kind of compromise can be made:
Iran Now | Exclusive | A diplomatic source in the Iranian Foreign Ministry to Iran Now Network:
- For the third time today, Washington sent a message, via one of the region's countries, in which it requested a halt to the war
- This time, the American request was accompanied by a threat to increase the pace of assassinations inside Iran in the event of non-compliance by Tehran
- Iran has affirmed that its position has not changed, so there will be no halt to the war before achieving Tehran's declared objectives as stated by its officials
In the meantime, just as I had written about and predicted, Iran’s missile and drone expenditures have not only remained stable but even increased:
This comes as a complete rejection of the Israeli hasbara claims about destroying random percentages of Iran’s ballistic launchers, which are total childish fairy tales for the gullible.
As for Israel’s strategy of continually whittling away Iran’s leadership, Araghchi responds:
Iranian Foreign Minister, Araghchi on the assassination of Ali Larijani:
“I don’t know why the Americans & Israelis still haven’t grasped this point. Islamic Republic has a strong political structure with established political, economic & social institutions. The presence or absence of one person doesn’t affect this structure.”
“When the leader was assassinated, the system continued to function and immediately provided a replacement.”
Tensions are now high between all parties as the conflict has palpably entered a new phase. Not only are Israel and the US approaching a crossroads, but the Gulf countries have more visibly made their intentions known and have begun to issue indirect threats against Iran. Rumors continue to persist that the Gulf states are secretly advising Trump to finish off Iran as they now fear Iran as an uncaged beast that will never again be tamed should the conflict be brought to an inconclusive cessation.
Trump’s threats against Iran’s South Pars field and other oil and gas infrastructure are either hollow bluster or the rattles of terminal madness, because Iran’s response would likely finish off the region’s most critical energy hubs and send the world spiraling into an economic abyss for which the feckless orange bandit himself would be held accountable.
One thing’s for sure, the US has never before looked so vindictive, weak, and embarrassing all at the same time on the world stage. Trump has truly opened up Pandora’s box, and his attempts to bluff-and-bravado his way out of the ensuing consequences are unlikely to work.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker enlightens:
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I can't imagine the gulf states having any military might of their own to throw at Iran. It reminds me a lot of European leaders threatening Russia with military action. They are all just vassals.
Thank you Simplicius for the timeliness of your article. Excellent stuff.
I don't believe one word of what Trump has to say. He acts somewhere between an organ grinder chimp and a very spoiled child. Additionally, he is completely deranged. I think the US was all in on the strike, until retaliation came.
The retaliation was going to be obvious. The US/Israel get sucked in every single time and wind up causing more harm, as they paddle down the stream of ´Carthage level destruction´. Yesterday was an extremely sad day for me, because it is not that the Rubicon was crossed, something drowned in the middle of it. I saw the interpreted response from the Iranian military. More of what they did is coming and as was stated here in this article, it will really rough up the global supply chain for almost everything ..... including food.
I don't have words right now to adequately express my sadness or anger over the decision making being made out of the Oval Office. It is criminally insane.
I wish as well as can be to all.