The Wait is Over: Putin Unveils New Nuclear Doctrine in Final Warning to West

Preview: This paid subscriber article goes into detail about Putin’s newly proposed nuclear doctrine changes, as well as takes it further into a future outlook, examining our predictions for the medium-term in light of recent escalations, with an evaluation of risks for a potential Russian-NATO clash.

The article is 4,700+ words.

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Putin has finally announced the upcoming modification of the nuclear doctrine, a topic long discussed here. But to dispel the hype and sensationalist mania currently swirling around these developments, let’s clarify some facts first.

Putin states from his opening sentence of the address that the nuclear deterrence meeting was in fact a perfunctory meeting which takes place at pre-scheduled times every year. This was not some “escalatory kneejerk” sudden move to signal impending WWIII, as some would have you believe. The only difference is maybe that this meeting was televised.

Secondly, the changes are not officially yet made, but are rather “proposed” in a draft document, after a year’s worth of careful study and consideration by the MoD’s specialists. Thus, as of the moment, there is no change to the nuclear doctrine whatsoever, and there is no word on when precisely such changes could be taken into effect. It seems perhaps Putin may deliberately use the staggered timeline more as ‘warning’ to the West, with the final signing of proposed ideas into official doctrine to be withheld until such time that Russia needs to make its final red line known.

Here is the full official transcript of the meeting from the Kremlin’s site:

http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/75182

The most relevant portion:

What else I would like to draw your attention to. In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear State, but with the participation or support of a nuclear State, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.

The conditions for Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons are also clearly defined. We will consider this possibility as soon as we receive reliable information about the massive launch of air and space attack vehicles and their crossing of our state border. I am referring to strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft.

We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. All these issues have been agreed with the Belarusian side and the President of Belarus. Including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty.

In conclusion, I would like to note that all the clarifications are thoroughly verified and proportionate to the current military threats and risks to the Russian Federation.

Let's get to work. The floor is given to Defense Minister Andrey Belousov.

Let’s run down the list.