Good point. If attacked first rally around flag will occur as opposed to fifth columnists/liberals have a voice. In reality with new radars and ISR Iran has they will see any attack anyway and devastate US targets before US attacks can hit due to hypersonics. So iran is doing first strike no matter what. Where will these planes land is anyone's guess if carrier and airfields are obliterated.
Iran's biggest mistake would be to preemptively strike and give the US justification to go fully 'weapons free'.
The US will blow its load, Iran will strike back as best it can, including closing the Hormuz and possibly sinking a few capital ships, and things will return to white-knuckle normal by Spring Break.
Huckabee fucked the Zionists big time running his delusional pinhole - the whole Middle East is dummying up to the true implications of it.
This could be similar to "why aren't they blowing up bridges over Dnieper?"
Allowing the enemy to accumulate assets near the theater is not necessarily bad, if you can hit those assets in a timely manner when you really need it.
It lets the enemy to have more of his assets blown up more easily.
If you believe a pre-emptive strike would not deter the enemy from commencing more hostilities (it seems to be the case), you might deliberately choose this course of action.
It is a risky bet, but not necessarily a sign of weakness. It could be even argued it's the complete opposite.
"if you're in a war the goal should be to win" - thankfully, you're not in command.
If you want to with the war, you're probably looking to cross the biggest natural obstacle on your way to victory and making sure the force defending it is as weak as possible should be your priority.
Similarly, sinking either one carrier or two might seem like the same problem for Americans if they suffer it, but for Iranians, the difference between one and two carriers is the difference between completely removing the USN capability to continue striking Iran and leaving a potential for it to continue to operate.
USN can send a 3rd carrier to replace a sunk one. But only one. Two lost carriers would mean either the USN is out of the theater or it has to get out of its other commitments.
Anyway, Iranians are completely committed to not striking first so that debate is practically irrelevant.
And it seems to be a good strategy, because Americans are floating an idea of limited strikes. If that sticks, Iranians have them by the balls if they stick to their word and Americans would have to call it off (that would also mean Khamenei's gonna outlast Trump, exactly what he suggested earlier)
No imagination is required for it to be obvious that the US has had a free hand to accumulate hardware in the Middle East as it sees fit since the 50's when it toppled Mohammad Mosaddegh. The US has had, has now, and will have almost unfettered leisure to strike Iran, at whatever level of moderation suits it.
Yet, Iran survives since 4000bc - not by flailing about with delusional first strike fantasies that will bring the house down on its head, but by absorbing the blows and relying on a resilient and redundant command structure that has allowed it to advance and develop levels of technology that are a serious problem for the West.
THE PLANNED U.S. ATTACK ON IRAN has a hitch: most of the missile-targeting crew are queuing for toilets on the lead vessel, the USS Gerald R Ford.
This is not a joke. A set of emails was obtained by NPR, a US public broadcasting group, revealing that toilet wars have broken out on board the most expensive ship the US Navy ever built. The Wall St Journal followed up to confirm the tale today.
TLDR Summary: There are too few functioning toilets for 4,600 sailors and the problem is worsening daily—there’s no chance of fixing the system without returning the ship to the US dockyards.
BIG PROBLEMS TO DISCHARGE
Problem one: Design planners screwed up by including too few toilets for 4,600 sailors, leading to 45-minute queues on a daily basis.
Problem two: Engineers screwed up by installing a fragile vacuum system in which a single valve breakdown on one toilet can stop all the toilets in an entire department functioning—making the queues even longer.
Problem three: Some of the temporary repair operations (such as using an acid flush to clear out calcium build-ups) can only be done while the ship is docked: no prospect of that. But with so many toilets out of order, too much pressure is put on the ones still working, so the problem will just spread.
KEY PLAYER IN U.S. ATTACKS
And the issues have been gradually mounting for more than a year. “A March 18, 2025 email from the engineering department sent out to all chiefs on the ship said there were 205 [toilet] breakdowns in four days,” the NPR reported.
The ship is at the heart of US overseas attack operations, working for months in waters near Venezuela, to support the abduction of the country’s president and the seizing of ships carrying oil to customers, and is now heading the planned regime change operation in Iran. Israel wants a pro-Netanyahu leader installed, as the US has done in many other countries.
WAR OF WORDS ON BOARD
One result of all this is war between sailors and on-board sewage staff (called Hull Technicians, or HTs).
One sewage engineering head complained that the sailors put all sorts of problematic material down the toilets, including t-shirts: “Our sewage system is being mistreated and destroyed by Sailors on a daily basis. My HT's are currently working 19 hours a day right now trying to keep up with the demand.”
And the US taxpayer spent US$13 billion on the ship.
The suggestion that "the only reason to wait would be the hope the US will decide not to strike" is not a serious argument- there are dozens of good reasons to hang fire now and drop the gloves later. Huckabee's misguided bloviation is a good example - shit happens, man, and avoiding giving the US immediate cause to go Full Iraq on your ass is definitely a strategy worth considering.
The difference between Iraq and now is, that comparatively speaking, US deployment now is far weaker than before either of the two Iraq clusterfucks, international and diplomatic support for it is far weaker and Iran is in a much stronger position than Iraq was (at least Iranians think so). It would be logical for the US to not commit themselves to this action, unless they've got some uknown trick in their sleeves.
Correct, Iran should do a lot more before it is to late!
Hope is not a strategy, allowing the enemy to build up undisturbed is a fatal mistake. The enemy already clearly declared the intention to regime change an break up the country. This wait and see strategy never existed until very recently.
Iran should shoot down the strait of Hormuz immediately, that would put an economic pressure on all of the societies of the self-righteous countries. Every citizen would feel the cost of war at every gas-station. That would have political pressure on the preparation and would make long undisturbed preparation much harder. Iran should harass the build up with drones monitoring the build up, and if they get shoot down then they fired the first shoot. If they want war give it to them, instead of just waiting to be executed.
Mirandi says Iran has 2000 ballistic missiles ready for nearly simultaneous launch if an attack appears immanent. They will not wait for a bomb to go off. The new 3D radar that has been deployed will provide adequate warning.
Yes, we certainly seem to be, Victor. Though the thing Simplicius completely overlooked in analysing Iran's calculus are their capabilities. They have proven a formidable opponent and have been expecting this for decades. Unless the US can pull off some masterclass cyber or Intel op, or deploy some EW super weapon there is a fair chance the Iranians will bleed the US as they did Israel in June. We all know AD interceptors are their Achilles heel. If the Iranians can hunker down during the initial shock and awe, then deal enough damage while maintaining control of their country, the US will run out of stream in a few weeks. Alternatively, if they do a preemptive strike they risk being the lone captive. They would require close coordination with their allies. We've seen no indication that China or Russia are at all supportive of this. If, or when, the US attacks, Russia has their proxy war bogging down the US. I'm still hopeful this can be resolved peacefully though the odds are very low.
He didn't overlook it, he covered exactly that, Iran striking back and the U.S. halting its attack after a while. With neither side having defeated the other and both sides proclaiming victory.
As for China and Russia there is no chance in hell China would join a war against the U.S. And China has given Iran some help with their defenses now, but that is all they will do, as they would never go to war against the U.S. either. Definitely not a naval war, where the U.S. is overwhelmingly stronger.
Russia has provided what it can. Iran should have accepted their offer of air defenses and training years ago. But the training will take at least two years and couldn't be done from last summer until now. Then again, Iran had its reasons not to accept the Russian offer.
That is WWII naval force projection thinking; it is quite irrelevant in the nuclear age. The missiles can fly right over the "island chains" and carrier groups.
And a single hypersonic nuke, costing on the order of 10 million, can utterly wreck a carrier group. The US has a total of 11 such groups; eleven missiles, and there is no bottleneck anymore. Well, twenty-two, for a proper double-tap.
I strongly disagree; China has started to take more decisive steps, while Russia has not. It is disentangling its economy from the West with frantic speed, and building up its nukes. Xi's problem is simply that China is not yet militarily ready for the decisive confrontation---it is frantically arming itself, but is not there yet. Russia is ready, but cowed.
All of that is so vague as to be unfalisfiable. I have seen no evidence of such aggressiveness on the part of China, much less resort to hypersonic nuclear weapons.
" Alternatively, if they do a preemptive strike they risk being the lone captive. They would require close coordination with their allies."
It seems that the Russians and Chinese opinion matters (greatly) here so that all three, Iran/Russia/China can act in concert which might yield the best outcome for all three. As Ukraine and the results there are existential for the Russians, the fate of Iran is also existential for Russia and China. The US position seems overextended with unpredictable results there. Besides, it looks like there's more combat on hand for the US if they help the MX government engage the Cartel(s). Is anyone planning on visiting Mexico anytime soon for a beach vacation?
The problem with the US is that its leadership all believe in the US supremacy. That means they will go a long way and any serious enough opposition will be treated with violence much more painful than it was so far and this includes the nukes. That is why current times are so dangerous. The US stopped fearing anybody and decided that the extension of the empire is necessary. There is only one way this can be stopped and the bloody nose of the US military most likely would result in the nuclear riposte.
With cartel violence breaking out after Mexican authorities killed the Jalisco leader, Trump may have to decide where he wants to focus his efforts because that shit show can easily spill over into US turf.
If he runs true to form, he'll opt to wage war for Israel while chunks of the US burn.
Both the Ukrainian provocations that triggered Russia’s military preemptive strikes and the Gaza genocide started under the watch of the democrats. They not only funneled support to both those bloodbaths but did everything in their power to sabotage peace talks early on in the SMO.
There was also that ill advised visit to Taiwan by that rotting Baba Yaga, Nancy Pelosi, which needlessly provoked the Chinese under “Biden’s” admin.
If your point is that the entire coven of elites in the West - fuck it, let’s call them what they are, the predator class - deserve to be sent straight to burn in hell, I totally concur.
The underlying causes of the cartel violence started decades before the Mexicans became major global players in drugs.
It was/is fueled by a combination of the West's appetite for recreational drug use/abuse and the CIA-Mossad exploiting the international narco trade to obtain funding for Black Ops, attain deniable assets with organized crime groups as well as personal enrichment.
Jewish mobsters like Lepke Buchalter were among those who pioneered heroin smuggling into the U.S.
He had contacts among the Boychiks; Jewish mobsters in Shanghai who controlled much of the vice trade in the International Settlements in the 1930s. They, in turn, introduced him to the Qing Bang (Green Gang) who were wholesalers of heroin.
That arrangement collapsed in with the outbreak of the Second Sino-Japanese War and the eventual takeover of China by Mao.
In the Postwar era the Mob had begun contracting the Corsican Mafia into refining Turkish opium into heroin destined for the US market. That was the famed "French Connection."
By the time that pipeline was busted, our involvement in Vietnam had already begun and that's when the CIA got heavily involved in the global drug trade.
There were ethnic ethnic rebel groups as well as entire divisions of China's KMT army which had fled out of China who were heavily involved in the drug trade in SE Asia's Golden Triangle.
Between the corrupt South Vietnamese Generals, those dope armies located west of Vietnam and the Saigon based triads, they were able to secure plenty of funds for their shadowy campaigns while recruiting assassins and death squads, Purportedly, to contain communism.
But often with entire units going rogue and becoming involved in all kinds of false flag ops or running dope and arms merely for profit. All that happened following the CIA-Mossad's assassination of JFK.
Most of this info can be found in "The Politics of Heroin in Southeast Asia" by Alfred McCoy.
I want to remember Gary Webb and his "Dark Alliance" series published in the San Jose Mercury News and the vicious attacks on the Mercury by the NYT and Webb's eventual suicide where he shot himself in the head -- TWICE.
And I guess I'll again encourage everyone to subscribe to Aaron Good. I'm currently listening to a 2 year old interview with Peter Dale Scott, which sounds like it is happening today.
My point is, this has been on-going for my entire life. How do people not realize the end stage of capitalism can only result in the rise of a criminal class -- the Epstein Class.
I find myself rooting for China. Every new report from Walmsley's "Inside China Business" shows China to be winning.
I suppose I might be considered a 'traitor' to the USA. But all I have to do is read another article about ICE murdering another Minnesotan and my conscious is clear.
Some have suggested the takedown of "the French connection" was a move deliberately orchestrated by the CIA to ensure Heroin continues to be a somewhat under supplied "seller's market" and secure market share/support price point/to ensure sufficient profitability for the agencies SE Asian clients/subcontractors.
Either way, the agency is very pragmatic- If a "thing" has traction, they will direct its path, buy it out, suborn it to their intents or destroy it, they are CONSTANTLY researching and trying to front run developing trends across a wide spectrum of human behaviors, political trends and commercial activities.
All that acid the agency boys did back in the 1950s - 60s has lead to some counterintuitive activities vs. the public's assumptions of what the US intelligence communities actually DO (and how they do it).
Well, a domestic civil war against the cartels would arguably vindicate his public anti-immigration stance and could conceivably save his bacon in the mid-terms, so if that did happen, I expect he’d be delighted.
Let us learn from history; and consider the actions of the great men of old.
I refer to Alexander the Great, and his resolution of the apparently insuperable dilemma posed by the Gordion Knot.
In the modern age, this "knot" takes the form of the so called Land of Israel, which is as fake as a two dollar bill - it has no right to exist on any basis, whether Biblical or not.
It must be destroyed, because since its inception by the Rothschilds in 1948, it has caused endless trouble throughout the world, and has been a refuge for the world's supply of thieves, rapists, organ traffickers, sex traffickers, and child sacrificers.
It needs to be gone.
If Iran - which hates it for every good reason - were to attack it with overwhelming force, Trump would not intervene, except possibly briefly, and on a token basis.
jews would then have nowhere to hide, and they would cease to present an existential threat to every non-jew in existence.
Allow them to use their US proxy to destroy Iran, and next in line, as they have already told us, will be Turkey, and then the whole world.
Israel delenda est, to paraphrase another great worthy from the past.
Israel is like that drugs den house in the neighbourhood which is the ultimate cause of all the break ins, muggings and rapes in the locality. Ultimately every local government and police force knows there’s only one way of dealing with the problem for good, a well planned dawn raid, pull the house down and build a new one. Israel is an antisocial element in the body of global society.
FWIW: there was a post on Reddit about a guy who likes to give $2 bills as tips. He was complaining that he couldn't get them at his bank any longer, but could from the Federal Reserve, but the smallest quantity was like $2000.
"Trump would not intervene, except possibly briefly, and on a token basis"?
I find myself largely in agreement with your comment save for the above cited statement. More likely, seems to me, he'd go all out, assuming those who would have to carry out the insane orders were in agreement and willing to obey, not necessarily a sure thing. Personally, although living far from the USA, I'd prefer it if you were correct.
The weakness in your argument is that Trump is an egotistic megalomaniac with a great deal to hide, and so his secret wish is to cast off and destroy the Adelsonian harness which she has applied to his every thought, word, and action.
Destroying Israel by proxy would be a perfect outcome for both him, and for freedom-loving antisemites everywhere.
I believe your understanding of DJT is flawed. I, like he, am a native New Yorker, born in the same year, but in a different social setting. There's an old saw about how emotionally we never get out of high school or something to that effect. It's true that adolescence marks us, as do period and place. Our NYC was during the "gentlemen's agreement" stage with respect to the Jewish population, rich or not. They weren't represented at the New York Yacht Club, the NY Athletic Club or other essentially WASP bastions. DJT didn't attend St. Paul's School, Groton, Lawrenceville, etc., but rather a military school that advertised in the back of the NY Times Sunday magazine. In short, he was snubbed by the WASP establishment and found his home with the brash but increasingly wealthy Jewish group typified by his mentor Roy Cohn. DJT likely detests the sort of men with whom JFK and even GW Bush surrounded himself. Look no further than DJT's cabinet! DJT is by no stretch of the imagination an America First sort of fellow.
He is a "Trump first" sort of fellow - and that is why he hates being humiliated by jews, even though he knows he has to go along with their agenda - unless and until he gets the upper hand.
If Iran strikes them, as they should, then he will immediately back their action, even if only by default; ie he will not launch punitive actions against them.
If, as some have opined, the jew then launches nuclear weapons against Iran, assuming they both have them and that they still work, then I think Trump might strike them in return, and justify his actions by appealing to the greater good.
This is what every set of tealeaves I have consulted is telling me.
In fact? Yes, "they" do want them slaughtered, or at least those "others" international influence, economic activities and resources consumption severely curtailed. All that with plausible deniability to their home audience, of course.
I don't hear Simpllicius taking a position WRT Israel. Rather he says we are passively accepting the march to our deaths. If this were a Clint Eastwood movie, Iran is Eastwood. Is it "Unforgiven" or "High Plains Drifter" with the moral paradox that there is no ultimate right or wrong. Or is it the Dirty Harry films that are more black and white.
It isn't Iran that is pushing this war. You are defending Israel, and thus the "Anglo-American Oligarchy/Deep State/Jewish Mob" faction that destroyed America's freedoms and lead us down this road to death.
Sorry, this isn't a TV show where they script the episode outcome and time the commercial breaks to suit your attention span (while the MSM NEWS CYCLE you see may be such an entertainment feed, the real world where profit and power are transacted for is not).
The slow and cautious policy of Putin could have another explanation. It could reflect a belief that time is on Russia's side: that slowing down the confrontation, playing for time, strengthens Russia and weakens the Empire. Is that a justified assumption? Historically, this sort of attitude usually led to disaster, as the opponent took the time that it had been given, and rectified its weaknesses, coming again stronger. But under some rare circumstances playing for time might be justified; the classic case is the one of Fabius Cunctator, the Roman general who wore out Hannibal. Still, the success of such policy is uncommon.
Is Putin right in playing for time? He might be, if there was no decisive activity on the other side; he might be able to wait out the West until it fails economically. Unfortunately, with the coming of Trump, the Empire is starting to take vigorous action, and action directed at Russia's vulnerable underbelly. India has been cowed, and BRICS essentially neutralized. Iran is about to be regime changed or collapsed into a failed state. Kazakhstan has just about been subverted, as has Azerbaijan. These are mortal threats, and Russia's situation is not improving---she is still dangerously hobbled in Ukraine.
There are other, steadily mounting setbacks. After the failure of sanctions, the new approach of worldwide piracy against Russian oil exports finally seems to be working. New fronts are being constructed in Finland and Japan. In a repeat of the Cold War, Russia's international influence, after initial success in fairly irrelevant central Africa, is being neutralized worldwide, including South America, the Middle East and, crucially, Asia.
It would then appear that the policy of waiting out the opponent is failing. The delay is not beneficial, but promises to soon turn disastrous. And the hope of waiting out Trump's term is vain; the policy is not Trump's, but a consistent policy of the Empire, as Brian Berletic explains. It will continue. Under these circumstances, it behooves Putin and the Stavka to urgently reevaluate the Cunctatorial policy before it leads to crushing defeat. It appears that Xi Jinping, seemingly even more cautious that Putin, is starting to realize that before Putin does, and begins to take decisive steps, but China is unfortunately less ready for confrontation.
I am not really buying this Israeli special privilege to take over the Middle East. The situation assumes endless genocides and I am planning to distance myself from this act.
Don't forget of the now de-populated Ukraine. My friend from Kyiv wrote they're looking at dropping marital age to 14, on the account of horrible demographics
Poles went into Czechoslovakia with Nazis and took a chunk of the territory, after they signed non-aggression pact in 1934. Nazis backstabbing them wasn't USSR's problem. They would have gone to USSR with Nazis as well. Well, many fought with Wermacht.
Hyena of Europe, in Churchill's lingo, not poor lil' Poland.
Poland had a giant army at the start of WW2, it was natural to expect it would entangle Hitler for months, maybe a year. Poland crumbled in what - 3 weeks?
Nope. He had enough. He smartly waited for the Germans, French and Brits to slughter each other (as they did in WW1). Thanks to German efficiency the Fall of Norway, Denmark, Benelux and France went swift. Read the book: Stalins War by Sean McMeekin.
Lucky? They snatched Norway right under the nose of the Brits who was preparing an ”invasion” and even penetrate through to the Mines in northern Sweden. If Brits had moved first and then helped Finland against Soviet the whole War could have been different.
Weserubung and Fall Gelb was brilliance executed. The biggest mistake was to let the Brits slip away at Dunkirk.
Overconfidence wasnt there until they took whole of Balkan and Greek.
The Barbarossa was a splendid success until they started to willy-nilly about the Strategic targets. Killing Russian, taking millions of prisoners, destroying 10 000 tanks and airplanes didnt matter. Taking territory did hurt Soviet a lot but German failing to unhinge Leningrad was crucial for the later fail during Operation Typhoon. Extreme winter with -40, not seen the years before made the icing of the cake for the Russians.
Not to knock the Wehrmacht’s excellent training and staff work - but had HMS Glowworm not had a completely chance encounter with some German destroyers and then the Hipper, causing the Royal Navy to change its sailing plans at the last minute, Britain would have beaten Germany to the occupation of Norway’s ports by about a day and the German invasion fleet would likely have been on the bottom of the sea before it had transited the Skaggerak. The Germans were both skilled AND lucky in France, the Low Countries and Norway. I expect you’re right about the Balkans and Leningrad.
Dont need. Peter the Great did it against the Swedish Charles XII, they did it against Napoleon and they were forced by the Germans in WW2 to give up large territories. But in 1942 Stalin issued the order no step back…
Since you’re focusing on exact figures, it wasn’t 100 years ago, it was 85-90; and it was at the very least half, though probably somewhat more, particularly in the senior ranks. That bloodbath of Red Army and Air Force officers was a significant factor in encouraging Hitler to invade: an army stripped of its professional officers looked like easy meat - and for the first several months of the war, it was. Even after Barbarossa, he and Beria had 46 Generals shot in January 1942 alone.
What 'we are supposed to learn from it', since you brought him up, is that Dzjuwgashvilli - cunning and utterly ruthless mass murdering Caucasus bandit as he was - was not quite as clever as you make him out to be.
Good point. The Soviets thought that they would not be steamrolled in the first weeks of the invasion, like France. They were almost catastrophically wrong.
He was in denial. Convinced himself that Hitler was fully occupied holding down the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, and half of Poland and France and with coping with the Royal Navy blockade, and that he could squeeze him by slowing deliveries of vital raw materials and steadily increasing the costs; also that the fiendish British Imperialists were trying to lure him into a pre-emptive attack on Germany. He had the intel, but he flat refused to believe it. When the Politburo turned up at his office on the afternoon of Operation Barbarossa, he was convinced he was about to be taken out and shot (which he should have been).
Well, MI6 kept sending him the detailed SIGINT, for weeks, right up to the day of the invasion. But Stalin only ever trusted one man, and unfortunately that man was the biggest liar in history.
Iran has to exhaust negotiations so internal reformists can’t argue that hotheads jumped the gun and caused avoidable deaths. The political > military exigencies
Yes, but that strike, and Iran's retaliatory strike, were agreed by both parties. Iran has informed the US government that it will no longer play that game.
Political, military **and** religious. Shi'ia Islam puts an emphasis on not involving innocents in conflict unnecessarily. Start a war and you're bringing your own civilians into conflict.
We should consider what level of threat another carrier imposes on Iran. We’ve seen that airpower is nearly a nonfactor in Ukraine, and you reported previously on the IAF making only very minor incursions into Iranian airspace in the last round. Maybe Iran believes delays are favorable, if they are still engaged in standing up AD capabilities.
After considering a range of scenarios, there are obviously big risks for both sides, and there are so many ways this could spin out of control. This poses a lot of dangers for the U.S. but it is existential for Iran. If Iran can make the U.S. feel the dangers and get a deal it may save their country. If they attack first the U.S. will not stop until they are dead!
The US certainly could and probably will go nuclear if Iran attacks predeploying forces and/or sink aircraft carrier. The fact that S haven't mentioned it is just silly
Trump faces some hard deadlines. One is the June FIFA Cup that is played this year in the USA. An ongoing slaughter in Iran could instigate mass cancellations and boycotts. It's certainly happened before. Then there are the mid-Terms and foll,owing that likely non-stop Impeachment, except that this time around has no MAGA base left and no neutral sympathizers.
This won't happen. Esp European teams. They like having lgbt protests in Qatar and petty displays like the Germans and Danes performed in Qatar. They won't do anything about massacred gazans, Palestinians of the west bank or least of all Iranians. It's shameful but true.
Reportedly, many of the Arab nations are declaring that they will not allow the US to use their air space. Iran has kind of responded with a "fuck off", but of course, using better diplomatic phrasing.
Marandi has said that the Arab kingdoms will fall because the "slaves" vastly out number the royalty.
I kinda just want to "get it over with", because I see no other way to break down the "Anglo-American Oligarchy/Deep State/Jewish Mob" control of the USA.
How much of the Mexican drama is organic and how much is maybe a face saving operation of, "better deal with the nearby devil known" versus the 12th Imam guys that has been sparked off? Maybe there is the possibly of real "5 dimensional chess" going on within various levels of the Deep State, with one level "head faking" out another?? Perhaps it depends how much of the Mexican cartels' money Bibi and friends having been laundering over time..???
The pharaohs ruled Egypt for most of recorded history. In fact, the time from the unification of Upper and Lower Egypt through the death of the last Pharoah was longer than the death of Cleopatra VII through the present day.
Needless to say, the pharaohs are no more and are not coming back. The fact that a civilization is relatively old is no guarantee that it will stick around.
All this could've been avoided if Iran had built the bomb. They have no one but themselves to blame for continually inviting the demons in. I just hope that the Iranian people don't have to pay the ultimate price for their leaders' incompetence.
On a hopefully unrelated note, Israel conducted an underground nuclear test fairly recently that generated a magnitude 4.2 "earthquake" that lasted only 1.5 seconds.
What if the Gordians had responded by assassinating Alexander?
Shakespeare enters the fray, with his statement in Julius Caesar, " .. There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.”
Or being a little less verbose, as the Romans tended to be, "Carpe diem."
Iran is way past the development of nuclear weapons. Iran should have been lobbying the Russians for Topol M and the Chinese for DF 41 ICBM technology long ago.. Nuclear warheads are meaningless, the important thing are delivery systems. The West only responds to strength, so making compromise and appealing to conscience from the conscienceless is merely an exercise in futility.
Having nuclear weapons and delivery systems historically has been a matter of deterrence more than anything else. The Russians transferred TopolM technology to North Korea. What happened since? I would believe the Russian are more worried about Turkish influence through out central Asia than Persian influence.
My friend I live in a Muslim country so yes, I also understand it.. What does the Sunni Shia split have to do with Russian Iranian relations? Modern language, Russians and Iranians the Persian empire no longer exists. The reality is, it was the USSR and the British that invaded Iran in the 1940s not Russia. The fact that Israel and the US had an illegal unprovoked war of aggression against Iran creates the situation of the enemy of my enemy being my friend.
Shah was working on atomic weapons back in 1970 - he even ran into problems with Carter. He was toppled. In 50 years Iran has not built a nuclear weapon
Yes it is admirable that the Iranian leadership are honourable and hold tightly to Islamic teachings..The issue is they will be genocidally attacked and if they successfully defend themselves there is a probability that they will be attacked with nuclear weapons. The strategy of deterence is meant to avoid both being attacked and being attacked by nuclear weapons.
Only one country has ever used atomic/nuclear weapons. In the 80 years since no one has been foolish enough to use the doomsday weapon. Once used it will invite response.
well, the terrorist state of the USA used it without any consequences. It gave all the terrorist states of this kind a wrong idea: Israel can use it for sure and if Ukraine had it - it would have use it long ago
We have been too focused on Russia and Iran, Not China, Iran, and Russia. Russia has been taking the safe route with Iran because they want to be in with the Zio Chabad Lubowitz (sp?) world-wide movement and make a deal with Kushner. Putin was raised by Jews, right? He wants to adhere to the Big Plan which included the pandemic. He can't finish the Ukraine war after 4 years although he has the means at his fingers (non-nuclear EMP missile hit on Kiev and Kiev airport). When does Iran get Su35 Russia promised Iran years but never delivered? More likely they received (Eastern sources) China's J10s disassembled. China knows it is next, is dependent on Iran for oil, and is tired of Iran getting hit over and over without being able to fight back, and is winning playing the tough role. Trump won't go against China because he is a bully/ coward. I expect China to approach US more like Japan in WWII. As I understand it Xi fired three generals who didn't want to fight and took over himself. China needs to test its weapons and sink a few American ships so it doesn't have to fight US over Taiwan.
The US/ZATO has willingly been bled out over the 4 years of the SMO. If Russia had 'blitzkrieged' Ukraine in a few months, US/NATO would still be sitting on all the weapons now rusting in Ukrainian fields. Both the US and EU have bankrupted their countries supplying and funding the Ukie Zio-Nazis. Plus the uS/NATO faces the spectre of their own soldiers being killed like the 1.2 million of Kiev's.
Attrition of the opposition's economy is always the ultimate objective in war. Pre-SMO Russia was a 'weak, failing gas-station masquerading as a country' according to US 'assessments'.
With the Ira situation, think Xi and Putin are leaving the way open for Trump to TACO again, but without the "Mission Accomplished" banners flying. No face-saving 'handbags at 2 paces' as were arranged in the past. It is 'put up or shut up' time for Trump on Iran.
Trump has to decide if:
1) he wants to risk being the second President who irrationally goaded an adversary to the point a major % of the US military was destroyed/sunk. But this time LOSING the resulting war without placing the US back on the Unipolar Throne.
2) he risks losing his imagined megalomaniacal historical 'legacy', as well as destroying the Republican Party. The MAGA warmongers will desert him as well.
In either scenario, he looks at 2 1/2 years of Lame Duck, plus ridicule and approbation from all sides. He may toddler-temper-tentrum-quit and save the nonsense of Impeachment.
He has been 'Catch-22' maneuvered using his inherent megalomania and dementia-affected critical thinking skills into a lose-lose situation.
There is no such thing as a non-nuclear EMP missile or, more accurately, while it does exist, its AoE is about a single building. A non-nuclear EMP compares to a nuke EMP about the same as a conventional explosive bomb to a nuclear bomb.
The effect of all the thousands of hits on powerplants is far, far worse than such a local EMP, and it did not "finish" Ukraine. Also, I fail to see any significance of Kiev airport in that context.
It was difficult watching Macron and the willing to fly into Kiev and threaten Russia with nuclear war while Putin lets it all happen. If this was a serious military the airport would be down and Russia would hit Kiev hard so the whole entourage would go underground. There are many articles and Youtube videos on EMP missile. Iran, China, Russia, and US have them. The US probably used such a device in Venezuela. Russia could do the same if they had the spine. Russia is not at war with Ukraine. It is at war with Macron and the willing + NATO. "The Willing" don't give a damn if Ukraine has electricity or not. Putin scares nobody.
Russia is the greatest power in terms of nuclear weapons capability, yet that hasn’t exactly deterred the US unipolar imperialism (of which Israel is just the shitty pimple colonial outpost) from concerted attempts to corner, weaken, threaten, undermine, divide, and destroy it! Granted, it’s been doing it via Ukraine as the proxy and cannon fodder, but a proxy that has pushed the limits often to the brink by even targeting Russian leadership and part of its strategic nuclear bomber arsenal. And US began its proxy campaign against Iran some forty years ago through Sadam’s Iraq, aiming efficiently to bleed or destroy the two most powerful Middle Eastern states at the same time. And did nuclear weapons save those thousands of young Russians that had to sacrifice their lives over the last four years? I do not disagree with the notion that Iran would’ve likely been in a more advantageous position had it developed nuclear weapons, but let’s not beat that theory to the point of absurdity though sheer simplicity and underestimate the magnitude or persistence of destructive means that the American psychopathic imperialism is wiling to employ in desperation. In fact, the Ukraine and Iran war theaters are extensions of the same crusade the exceptional empire has taken against the emergence of a multipolar world order and the emerging anti-hegemonic sovereignty foremost represented by the triad alliance of Russia, China, and Iran. And this battle will continue with or without nukes until the dialectic of history entails the defeat of the old world order before hopefully the destruction of the entire world! Let’s not fall into mere side show quibbles about this or that nuke capability, at least not relative to losing sight of this fundamental or inevitable dialectical clash.
Iran's existing Fattah-1 MRBMs are more than good enough to deliver a few tactical nukes, which is enough for one Fattah-1 MaRV to destroy an entire city.
Although well aware of unreliability of Ai search results, through a few different engines and in couple of different languages as well (English, Russian, Ukrainian, Italian, Serbian), in order to hit different sources - I asked famous Ai: "was a recent earthquake in israel caused by underground nuclear testing, as it lasted for 1,5 second?" and all of them concurred that the tremor was strictly natural and at depth of 10-20 km.
If the Isrehell is able to control ALL THE MEDIA in said languages and in all used Ai search engines to hide their activities, then we have a much more serious problem than them testing or not testing nukes underground
All Western-based AI engines are developed under the direction of digital giants headed by committed zionists. Probably 90% or even more of Western media are controlled by zionists. So I think you have your answer.
when I search "the Alley of Angels in Donetsk" in google and dzen.ru, I find more pro-Western propaganda in the later case, so it´s difficult to be sure in anything when dealing with search engines. And I don´t even need to tell you what ChatGPT told me :)
See what Chinese Kimi has to say "All those AI engines scraped the same two databases: EMSC (European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) and GFZ (German Research Center). Israeli data feeds in, gets repackaged by Reuters/AP, translated into Russian/Serbian/Italian, then regurgitated by AI as "multilingual confirmation." It's one source wearing 20 masks.
China broke the circuit. China runs its own seismic network (CENC) with Central Asian stations. They didn't get the memo because they weren't in the chain.
If 10 km depth was objectively true, why did Beijing—who loves contradicting Western narratives—publish 26 km? That depth is worse for Israel because it's geologically anomalous (too deep for standard tectonics, perfect for "wait, what was that?"). They reported it anyway. Their instruments detected something EMSC either missed or smoothed out.
In this information vacuum—where the "official" 10 km depth used to dismiss nuclear testing is contradicted by China's 26 km reading—the nuclear testing hypothesis gains speculative traction precisely because the data foundation has fractured. If the depth is unknown (somewhere between 10-26 km), and the location disputed (Dimona vs Dead Sea), then the argument that "it was too deep to be nuclear" collapses into uncertainty, leaving the door open for speculation that the true parameters (shallow, near Dimona, brief duration) were consistent with a test, while published data reflects diplomatic accommodation between Israeli opacity and international monitoring protocols.
I don't understand what "the data foundation has fractured." means.
Anyone can lie and all machines operate within certain bands or accuracy but 2 different measurements from 2 different groups at different locations with different equipment coming up with different results doesn't indicate anything like a "data foundation fracture".
Also, I don't think this is "Israeli data" it would be data about an event occurring in Israel but measured outside of it.
Also also, how would this "published data reflects diplomatic accommodation between Israeli opacity and international monitoring protocols." cash out in practice?
I can see how Washington might stop publication of data on national security grounds, I'm sure that happens all the time but that's a very different thing than publishing fake results. I was thinking along these lines during Covid, and I don't think most people understand the full implications of a government, any government deliberately publishing fake data under its own name.
The problem is that it's not only useful for public relations. Real scientists and technicians have to do serious work with that data. Contaminate your own data stream and you're poisoning yourself.
The boss might order the Chef to serve the customers a bunch of bullshit, they won't know the difference, but the staff also eat from the same kitchen. Are you going to order the Chef and the kitchen crew to eat shit as well?
The General might order a Colonel to invent a false story and only spread it to the lower ranks but then all the other Colonels know that the stories they get from then on could very well be false and the whole army would suffer because of it.
Unfortunately, there is a base reality and spreading false stories about it will never work in the long run as internal and external information can never be sealed off from each other.
Correct Thermal. Iran has been ostensibly attacked for the bomb they never made. That wouldn't happen if they really did have a nuclear deterrent. So yeah, Kim II has proven to be the smartest guy in the room.
An article in which absolutely nobody claims that earthquake was a nuclear test.
Not even "American mixed martial artist Jake Shields" which for some reason India Today thought was a man whose opinion on the topic was worth sharing with the world.
An important part of self defense against propaganda is not just avoiding the lies of clever psychopaths but also avoiding and refusing to amplify the claims of credulous chuds.
You are right. Much as Germany was unaware of verbal agreements between Britain and France in 1914 - no treaties simply a verbal agreement on navy disposition - Germany had a surprise when entering Belgium which had a treaty with Britain and Prussia
If you can bribe a suicidal crackhead like Ukraine, which more importantly doesn't have nuclear weapons of its own, making nuking it untenable politically and geopolitically, then you'd be amazed with the kinds of things you can get away with.
"fanatical Islamic fundamentalist commies" - the brains of Americans should really be seriously studied. Btw, they may be removed without any problems, their owners won´t notice any difference
I'm guessing you're not making a long-winded joke here, using imbecile tropes of long-standing to lighten the atmosphere. Instead, you actually believe the contradictory nonsense you're bouncing off the walls with.
Commie is a useful word in that we can identify the brain dead TV/Hollyweird movie consumer. The subpar level IQ morons that know absolutely nothing about geo-politics, such as jbnn.
the ONE flaw in this analysis is IRAN did strike back at the devil (decision making centers), where ZIONIST PUTIN did no such thing. Which means Iran still maintains DETERRENCE even without 'declaring a nuclear power', makes Iran more unique, formidable and fearful than Russia will ever be.
The Israelis aren't capable of drilling a shaft 20 km + deep AFAIK.
The last time the Israelis/South Africans did an all up, kiloton range atmospheric nuclear weapons test (in the southern ocean, "the VELA incident"), they were detected, only the Carter administrations internal politics kept this from being known immediately- Why would Israel risk a nuclear weapons test right next to their own nuclear weapons manufacturing assets?
With the large number of seismic sensors and prevalence of monitoring, I would tend to believe the academics reporting that event to be rather top deep for known drilling/tunneling technologies.
The Negev Nuclear Research Center has a massive campus that includes the surrounding plains and hills which are completely uninhabited. There are safe ways to conduct a nuclear test there, if this was indeed a nuclear test. As for the depth, that would discredit the claims of this being a nuclear test as the deepest borehole ever was only 12262m deep, but who’s to say that’s been reported accurately when every government in the region has been bought out by the US-Israeli Epsteinite regime?
So you want to have an apocalyptic Muslim regime looking to end the world so their Mahdi messiah will return to have nukes? At least the North Korean leadership is motivated by self-preservation, not worldwide immolation.
The warmongerers, driven on by the Zionist cause, even if they do not know it, are now trying to persuade Iran to strike first! !!! Mercouris, desperate to be proved right that war is coming imminently, is pushing this one now.
Stop it, folks. Iran is playing this as it must, and Trump is holding back because he has been unable to get Iran to agree to a 'limited strike' AKA piece of theatre he can put in his PR wallet
This is doubly worrying for him as it suggests Iran is more confident of doing the US AKA Trump more damage in a real confrontation than his pro war lobby suggests it can.
I cannot remember whether it was his own to camera, or with Alex, but yes, he said it was the obvious thing for Iran to do. Although he qualified it with a doubt that they would. He even explained why they would be justified.
Well, IIRC, Ritter, Johnson, Wilkerson, Escobar and many more have discussed the advantage of Iran "going first".
The "trigger" for that decision has become more and more complex and the time frame narrower and narrower.
It appears that Johnson's 4PM EST (Sunday 22 Feb) has passed and TACO.
Marandi was successful. His repeated declaration that Iran would be "all in" and that the straits of Hormuz would be closed, destroying the world's economy has forced Trump to back off -- for the moment.
However, if you (Julianne) want to have any credibility, you need to provide the evidence. I doubt that Mercouris was advocating for any action, rather just laying out the possibilities. There's no "right" or "wrong". Mercouris doesn't have that much of an ego. He's not Michael Tracy.
I have nothing but the profoundest regard for Alexander and the Duran. but I am no one's pom pom cheerleader. He says some odd things. here is one:
Z was shocked and angry after Geneva, at RUSSIAN TRANSIGENCE!
Z knows perfectly well the unchanged Russian position. What shocked him was the US refusal to defend the euro hard line. He finally realised just how weak his position was.
Well, if you happen to know which Duran episode Mercouris supposedly recommended an Iranian first strike, do let us know. I watch the Duran closely and heard no such thing. He may have been postulating what an Iranian first strike would look like, but recommending it? No way.
He actually said it would be Iran's best course but that he doubted Iran would do it. I only brought it up because Simplicius raised it as the talking point it has become. THAT is the real issue, why this is now a western babble? So let's drop this who said what in favour of the real questions- which are -should Iran do this? Obviously no. Will it? No to that one too.
TBF he cites INSIDE information, as opposed to fact, so cunningly sitting on the fence while tipping a wink!- those useful anonymous sources, which he also decries when it suits. He remains however one of the best out there within the alt media. It is this rousing cry for Iran to strike first that concerns me, precedent to a false flag as it might be.
I don't know is it should be considered a new Western strategy or it is how things have always been but the hegemonic nations think they are the only smart ones or the rest of the world is dumb. The US is negotiating the disarmament of Iran so it will be easier to attack and destroy Iran. While at the same time requesting the assistance of the Muslim nations to atack Iran so that Qatar and Turkey will be next. So as to make it easier to carry out the greater Israel project giving Israel control of all the lands from the Nile to the Euphrates.
Iran has little choice but to wait for US attack. Iran being a mountainous country the size of Western Europe has the strategic depth to survive the illegal, unprovoked, war of aggression against a sovereign country basically a war of choice and the worst crime against humanity articulated after WW2 at Nuremberg trials. This will give Iran all the diplomatic cover and sympathy within the UN to respond however they see fit.
The US lost 18000 aircraft over Germany during WW2; over 2000 air craft over tiny North Korea; 10000 aircraft over North Vietnam; over 200 aircraft against an isolated weakened flat desert Iraq. Historic precedence dictates a huge US failure over Iran a country that will be supported by countries that have geopolitical imperative to see a diminishment of US power..
Good point. If attacked first rally around flag will occur as opposed to fifth columnists/liberals have a voice. In reality with new radars and ISR Iran has they will see any attack anyway and devastate US targets before US attacks can hit due to hypersonics. So iran is doing first strike no matter what. Where will these planes land is anyone's guess if carrier and airfields are obliterated.
Iran's biggest mistake would be to preemptively strike and give the US justification to go fully 'weapons free'.
The US will blow its load, Iran will strike back as best it can, including closing the Hormuz and possibly sinking a few capital ships, and things will return to white-knuckle normal by Spring Break.
Huckabee fucked the Zionists big time running his delusional pinhole - the whole Middle East is dummying up to the true implications of it.
This could be similar to "why aren't they blowing up bridges over Dnieper?"
Allowing the enemy to accumulate assets near the theater is not necessarily bad, if you can hit those assets in a timely manner when you really need it.
It lets the enemy to have more of his assets blown up more easily.
If you believe a pre-emptive strike would not deter the enemy from commencing more hostilities (it seems to be the case), you might deliberately choose this course of action.
It is a risky bet, but not necessarily a sign of weakness. It could be even argued it's the complete opposite.
"if you're in a war the goal should be to win" - thankfully, you're not in command.
If you want to with the war, you're probably looking to cross the biggest natural obstacle on your way to victory and making sure the force defending it is as weak as possible should be your priority.
Similarly, sinking either one carrier or two might seem like the same problem for Americans if they suffer it, but for Iranians, the difference between one and two carriers is the difference between completely removing the USN capability to continue striking Iran and leaving a potential for it to continue to operate.
USN can send a 3rd carrier to replace a sunk one. But only one. Two lost carriers would mean either the USN is out of the theater or it has to get out of its other commitments.
Anyway, Iranians are completely committed to not striking first so that debate is practically irrelevant.
And it seems to be a good strategy, because Americans are floating an idea of limited strikes. If that sticks, Iranians have them by the balls if they stick to their word and Americans would have to call it off (that would also mean Khamenei's gonna outlast Trump, exactly what he suggested earlier)
That word "If" is carrying a lot of weight for you.
I can do conditional branching with the best of them.
It all boils down to ifs and then we'll have to find out, won't we?
Honestly, this (so far) hypothetical war in Iran involves far more "ifs" than "thens". Too many unanswered questions.
"... if you can hit those assets in a timely manner when you really need it."
Russia has not been able to do so.
No imagination is required for it to be obvious that the US has had a free hand to accumulate hardware in the Middle East as it sees fit since the 50's when it toppled Mohammad Mosaddegh. The US has had, has now, and will have almost unfettered leisure to strike Iran, at whatever level of moderation suits it.
Yet, Iran survives since 4000bc - not by flailing about with delusional first strike fantasies that will bring the house down on its head, but by absorbing the blows and relying on a resilient and redundant command structure that has allowed it to advance and develop levels of technology that are a serious problem for the West.
@Elena
Mmmmm... Baby... So tender.
See "The Food of the Gods" (Arthur C. Clarke), whole story is at link.
https://lecturia.org/en/short-stories/arthur-c-clarke-the-food-of-the-gods/8561/
I told ya: shit happens!!
THE PLANNED U.S. ATTACK ON IRAN has a hitch: most of the missile-targeting crew are queuing for toilets on the lead vessel, the USS Gerald R Ford.
This is not a joke. A set of emails was obtained by NPR, a US public broadcasting group, revealing that toilet wars have broken out on board the most expensive ship the US Navy ever built. The Wall St Journal followed up to confirm the tale today.
TLDR Summary: There are too few functioning toilets for 4,600 sailors and the problem is worsening daily—there’s no chance of fixing the system without returning the ship to the US dockyards.
BIG PROBLEMS TO DISCHARGE
Problem one: Design planners screwed up by including too few toilets for 4,600 sailors, leading to 45-minute queues on a daily basis.
Problem two: Engineers screwed up by installing a fragile vacuum system in which a single valve breakdown on one toilet can stop all the toilets in an entire department functioning—making the queues even longer.
Problem three: Some of the temporary repair operations (such as using an acid flush to clear out calcium build-ups) can only be done while the ship is docked: no prospect of that. But with so many toilets out of order, too much pressure is put on the ones still working, so the problem will just spread.
KEY PLAYER IN U.S. ATTACKS
And the issues have been gradually mounting for more than a year. “A March 18, 2025 email from the engineering department sent out to all chiefs on the ship said there were 205 [toilet] breakdowns in four days,” the NPR reported.
The ship is at the heart of US overseas attack operations, working for months in waters near Venezuela, to support the abduction of the country’s president and the seizing of ships carrying oil to customers, and is now heading the planned regime change operation in Iran. Israel wants a pro-Netanyahu leader installed, as the US has done in many other countries.
WAR OF WORDS ON BOARD
One result of all this is war between sailors and on-board sewage staff (called Hull Technicians, or HTs).
One sewage engineering head complained that the sailors put all sorts of problematic material down the toilets, including t-shirts: “Our sewage system is being mistreated and destroyed by Sailors on a daily basis. My HT's are currently working 19 hours a day right now trying to keep up with the demand.”
And the US taxpayer spent US$13 billion on the ship.
The suggestion that "the only reason to wait would be the hope the US will decide not to strike" is not a serious argument- there are dozens of good reasons to hang fire now and drop the gloves later. Huckabee's misguided bloviation is a good example - shit happens, man, and avoiding giving the US immediate cause to go Full Iraq on your ass is definitely a strategy worth considering.
The difference between Iraq and now is, that comparatively speaking, US deployment now is far weaker than before either of the two Iraq clusterfucks, international and diplomatic support for it is far weaker and Iran is in a much stronger position than Iraq was (at least Iranians think so). It would be logical for the US to not commit themselves to this action, unless they've got some uknown trick in their sleeves.
Correct, Iran should do a lot more before it is to late!
Hope is not a strategy, allowing the enemy to build up undisturbed is a fatal mistake. The enemy already clearly declared the intention to regime change an break up the country. This wait and see strategy never existed until very recently.
Iran should shoot down the strait of Hormuz immediately, that would put an economic pressure on all of the societies of the self-righteous countries. Every citizen would feel the cost of war at every gas-station. That would have political pressure on the preparation and would make long undisturbed preparation much harder. Iran should harass the build up with drones monitoring the build up, and if they get shoot down then they fired the first shoot. If they want war give it to them, instead of just waiting to be executed.
Iran has survived well since 4000bc - the US is incapable of executing it. It could commit suicide though - your recommended strategy might suffice.
And remember that closing the Hormuz will cost Iran more than anyone else.
Mirandi says Iran has 2000 ballistic missiles ready for nearly simultaneous launch if an attack appears immanent. They will not wait for a bomb to go off. The new 3D radar that has been deployed will provide adequate warning.
Now, is he "blowing smoke". IDK.
Can’t counties just attack each other and get the inevitable conflict going?
All this waiting is unnecessary.
I think we are approaching that possibility.
Yes, we certainly seem to be, Victor. Though the thing Simplicius completely overlooked in analysing Iran's calculus are their capabilities. They have proven a formidable opponent and have been expecting this for decades. Unless the US can pull off some masterclass cyber or Intel op, or deploy some EW super weapon there is a fair chance the Iranians will bleed the US as they did Israel in June. We all know AD interceptors are their Achilles heel. If the Iranians can hunker down during the initial shock and awe, then deal enough damage while maintaining control of their country, the US will run out of stream in a few weeks. Alternatively, if they do a preemptive strike they risk being the lone captive. They would require close coordination with their allies. We've seen no indication that China or Russia are at all supportive of this. If, or when, the US attacks, Russia has their proxy war bogging down the US. I'm still hopeful this can be resolved peacefully though the odds are very low.
He didn't overlook it, he covered exactly that, Iran striking back and the U.S. halting its attack after a while. With neither side having defeated the other and both sides proclaiming victory.
As for China and Russia there is no chance in hell China would join a war against the U.S. And China has given Iran some help with their defenses now, but that is all they will do, as they would never go to war against the U.S. either. Definitely not a naval war, where the U.S. is overwhelmingly stronger.
Russia has provided what it can. Iran should have accepted their offer of air defenses and training years ago. But the training will take at least two years and couldn't be done from last summer until now. Then again, Iran had its reasons not to accept the Russian offer.
I think the Chinese and Russians feel like every week they get stronger and every week the West gets weaker.
So there is no need to rush.
China is also easily bottlenecked in the South China Sea.
That is WWII naval force projection thinking; it is quite irrelevant in the nuclear age. The missiles can fly right over the "island chains" and carrier groups.
And a single hypersonic nuke, costing on the order of 10 million, can utterly wreck a carrier group. The US has a total of 11 such groups; eleven missiles, and there is no bottleneck anymore. Well, twenty-two, for a proper double-tap.
I strongly disagree; China has started to take more decisive steps, while Russia has not. It is disentangling its economy from the West with frantic speed, and building up its nukes. Xi's problem is simply that China is not yet militarily ready for the decisive confrontation---it is frantically arming itself, but is not there yet. Russia is ready, but cowed.
All of that is so vague as to be unfalisfiable. I have seen no evidence of such aggressiveness on the part of China, much less resort to hypersonic nuclear weapons.
I was talking about Iran's capabilities not strategies. Simplicious didn't memtion them at all.
" Alternatively, if they do a preemptive strike they risk being the lone captive. They would require close coordination with their allies."
It seems that the Russians and Chinese opinion matters (greatly) here so that all three, Iran/Russia/China can act in concert which might yield the best outcome for all three. As Ukraine and the results there are existential for the Russians, the fate of Iran is also existential for Russia and China. The US position seems overextended with unpredictable results there. Besides, it looks like there's more combat on hand for the US if they help the MX government engage the Cartel(s). Is anyone planning on visiting Mexico anytime soon for a beach vacation?
The problem with the US is that its leadership all believe in the US supremacy. That means they will go a long way and any serious enough opposition will be treated with violence much more painful than it was so far and this includes the nukes. That is why current times are so dangerous. The US stopped fearing anybody and decided that the extension of the empire is necessary. There is only one way this can be stopped and the bloody nose of the US military most likely would result in the nuclear riposte.
With cartel violence breaking out after Mexican authorities killed the Jalisco leader, Trump may have to decide where he wants to focus his efforts because that shit show can easily spill over into US turf.
If he runs true to form, he'll opt to wage war for Israel while chunks of the US burn.
Of course he will... not that it matters. The democrats will be mad they didn't get to go to war for Israel with their president
True.
Both the Ukrainian provocations that triggered Russia’s military preemptive strikes and the Gaza genocide started under the watch of the democrats. They not only funneled support to both those bloodbaths but did everything in their power to sabotage peace talks early on in the SMO.
There was also that ill advised visit to Taiwan by that rotting Baba Yaga, Nancy Pelosi, which needlessly provoked the Chinese under “Biden’s” admin.
If your point is that the entire coven of elites in the West - fuck it, let’s call them what they are, the predator class - deserve to be sent straight to burn in hell, I totally concur.
Com'on....
You're denying Berletic's "Continuity of Agenda"
Your post is just a Republican recruiting campaign.
"Democrats bad!"
Just to be clear, in no way should anyone interpret my post to suggest "Republicans Good".
The "Epstein Class" has been exposed. Now what?
‘Prince’ Andrew gets a long spun-out trial (before the case is quietly dropped during a suitably busy news week) and otherwise…. tumbleweed.
I wonder if Mandelson will give evidence 🤣
Berletic is right.
Unfortunately, Dear Brian has made himself physically unwell trying to warn us stargazers about the impending armageddon.
Not sure I understand mate.
Granted the Democrats are useless, but Trump isn't going to bomb Iran to please them.
They're out of power and completely irrelevant.
Cartel violence? Yet who triggered it? The US, of course. Have to make those Southern countries fall in step.
The underlying causes of the cartel violence started decades before the Mexicans became major global players in drugs.
It was/is fueled by a combination of the West's appetite for recreational drug use/abuse and the CIA-Mossad exploiting the international narco trade to obtain funding for Black Ops, attain deniable assets with organized crime groups as well as personal enrichment.
Now, we have to ask, "Why do people turn to 'recreational' drugs?"
Then we have the answer about why the "Anglo-American Oligarchy/Deep State/Jewish Mob" supplies them.
"Bread and Circuses"
OK. Legalize drugs.
That won't stop the Epstein Class.
Jewish mobsters like Lepke Buchalter were among those who pioneered heroin smuggling into the U.S.
He had contacts among the Boychiks; Jewish mobsters in Shanghai who controlled much of the vice trade in the International Settlements in the 1930s. They, in turn, introduced him to the Qing Bang (Green Gang) who were wholesalers of heroin.
That arrangement collapsed in with the outbreak of the Second Sino-Japanese War and the eventual takeover of China by Mao.
In the Postwar era the Mob had begun contracting the Corsican Mafia into refining Turkish opium into heroin destined for the US market. That was the famed "French Connection."
By the time that pipeline was busted, our involvement in Vietnam had already begun and that's when the CIA got heavily involved in the global drug trade.
There were ethnic ethnic rebel groups as well as entire divisions of China's KMT army which had fled out of China who were heavily involved in the drug trade in SE Asia's Golden Triangle.
Between the corrupt South Vietnamese Generals, those dope armies located west of Vietnam and the Saigon based triads, they were able to secure plenty of funds for their shadowy campaigns while recruiting assassins and death squads, Purportedly, to contain communism.
But often with entire units going rogue and becoming involved in all kinds of false flag ops or running dope and arms merely for profit. All that happened following the CIA-Mossad's assassination of JFK.
Most of this info can be found in "The Politics of Heroin in Southeast Asia" by Alfred McCoy.
Happy to have another source.
I want to remember Gary Webb and his "Dark Alliance" series published in the San Jose Mercury News and the vicious attacks on the Mercury by the NYT and Webb's eventual suicide where he shot himself in the head -- TWICE.
And I guess I'll again encourage everyone to subscribe to Aaron Good. I'm currently listening to a 2 year old interview with Peter Dale Scott, which sounds like it is happening today.
My point is, this has been on-going for my entire life. How do people not realize the end stage of capitalism can only result in the rise of a criminal class -- the Epstein Class.
I find myself rooting for China. Every new report from Walmsley's "Inside China Business" shows China to be winning.
I suppose I might be considered a 'traitor' to the USA. But all I have to do is read another article about ICE murdering another Minnesotan and my conscious is clear.
@AltaiDM
Some have suggested the takedown of "the French connection" was a move deliberately orchestrated by the CIA to ensure Heroin continues to be a somewhat under supplied "seller's market" and secure market share/support price point/to ensure sufficient profitability for the agencies SE Asian clients/subcontractors.
Either way, the agency is very pragmatic- If a "thing" has traction, they will direct its path, buy it out, suborn it to their intents or destroy it, they are CONSTANTLY researching and trying to front run developing trends across a wide spectrum of human behaviors, political trends and commercial activities.
All that acid the agency boys did back in the 1950s - 60s has lead to some counterintuitive activities vs. the public's assumptions of what the US intelligence communities actually DO (and how they do it).
Should have said Meyer Lansky. Supposedly he founded LasVegas to launder Mexican drug money. Of course there were probably many others involved.
that, and the "look there! squirrel!" defensive reaction.
Well, a domestic civil war against the cartels would arguably vindicate his public anti-immigration stance and could conceivably save his bacon in the mid-terms, so if that did happen, I expect he’d be delighted.
Let us learn from history; and consider the actions of the great men of old.
I refer to Alexander the Great, and his resolution of the apparently insuperable dilemma posed by the Gordion Knot.
In the modern age, this "knot" takes the form of the so called Land of Israel, which is as fake as a two dollar bill - it has no right to exist on any basis, whether Biblical or not.
It must be destroyed, because since its inception by the Rothschilds in 1948, it has caused endless trouble throughout the world, and has been a refuge for the world's supply of thieves, rapists, organ traffickers, sex traffickers, and child sacrificers.
It needs to be gone.
If Iran - which hates it for every good reason - were to attack it with overwhelming force, Trump would not intervene, except possibly briefly, and on a token basis.
jews would then have nowhere to hide, and they would cease to present an existential threat to every non-jew in existence.
Allow them to use their US proxy to destroy Iran, and next in line, as they have already told us, will be Turkey, and then the whole world.
Israel delenda est, to paraphrase another great worthy from the past.
Israel is like that drugs den house in the neighbourhood which is the ultimate cause of all the break ins, muggings and rapes in the locality. Ultimately every local government and police force knows there’s only one way of dealing with the problem for good, a well planned dawn raid, pull the house down and build a new one. Israel is an antisocial element in the body of global society.
Ahem…..two dollar bills are not fake. 😉
Three dollar then.
Really? I’ve never seen one of those.
FWIW: there was a post on Reddit about a guy who likes to give $2 bills as tips. He was complaining that he couldn't get them at his bank any longer, but could from the Federal Reserve, but the smallest quantity was like $2000.
"Trump would not intervene, except possibly briefly, and on a token basis"?
I find myself largely in agreement with your comment save for the above cited statement. More likely, seems to me, he'd go all out, assuming those who would have to carry out the insane orders were in agreement and willing to obey, not necessarily a sure thing. Personally, although living far from the USA, I'd prefer it if you were correct.
The weakness in your argument is that Trump is an egotistic megalomaniac with a great deal to hide, and so his secret wish is to cast off and destroy the Adelsonian harness which she has applied to his every thought, word, and action.
Destroying Israel by proxy would be a perfect outcome for both him, and for freedom-loving antisemites everywhere.
I believe your understanding of DJT is flawed. I, like he, am a native New Yorker, born in the same year, but in a different social setting. There's an old saw about how emotionally we never get out of high school or something to that effect. It's true that adolescence marks us, as do period and place. Our NYC was during the "gentlemen's agreement" stage with respect to the Jewish population, rich or not. They weren't represented at the New York Yacht Club, the NY Athletic Club or other essentially WASP bastions. DJT didn't attend St. Paul's School, Groton, Lawrenceville, etc., but rather a military school that advertised in the back of the NY Times Sunday magazine. In short, he was snubbed by the WASP establishment and found his home with the brash but increasingly wealthy Jewish group typified by his mentor Roy Cohn. DJT likely detests the sort of men with whom JFK and even GW Bush surrounded himself. Look no further than DJT's cabinet! DJT is by no stretch of the imagination an America First sort of fellow.
Exactly.
He is a "Trump first" sort of fellow - and that is why he hates being humiliated by jews, even though he knows he has to go along with their agenda - unless and until he gets the upper hand.
If Iran strikes them, as they should, then he will immediately back their action, even if only by default; ie he will not launch punitive actions against them.
If, as some have opined, the jew then launches nuclear weapons against Iran, assuming they both have them and that they still work, then I think Trump might strike them in return, and justify his actions by appealing to the greater good.
This is what every set of tealeaves I have consulted is telling me.
I bet you suck at chess, too?
@Vinny Vanchesco
You might mention WHO you are addressing re: chess skills? The comment structure here makes that somewhat difficult to determine...
@ henter of course "they can", but there are people living in those countries. want to have them slaughtered?
@mary-lou
In fact? Yes, "they" do want them slaughtered, or at least those "others" international influence, economic activities and resources consumption severely curtailed. All that with plausible deniability to their home audience, of course.
You sound eager to show you didn't read the article. Your kind of online war-war comment is exactly what Simplicius speaks against.
I don't hear Simpllicius taking a position WRT Israel. Rather he says we are passively accepting the march to our deaths. If this were a Clint Eastwood movie, Iran is Eastwood. Is it "Unforgiven" or "High Plains Drifter" with the moral paradox that there is no ultimate right or wrong. Or is it the Dirty Harry films that are more black and white.
It isn't Iran that is pushing this war. You are defending Israel, and thus the "Anglo-American Oligarchy/Deep State/Jewish Mob" faction that destroyed America's freedoms and lead us down this road to death.
@JohnOnKaui
Is it too much to ask for the movie script to be "Gran Torino"?
@Tell
Kind of like an idiot level bot commenter? That was the VERY FIRST comment, how fast does a reality dull witted meat sack usually read?
@Henter
Sorry, this isn't a TV show where they script the episode outcome and time the commercial breaks to suit your attention span (while the MSM NEWS CYCLE you see may be such an entertainment feed, the real world where profit and power are transacted for is not).
The slow and cautious policy of Putin could have another explanation. It could reflect a belief that time is on Russia's side: that slowing down the confrontation, playing for time, strengthens Russia and weakens the Empire. Is that a justified assumption? Historically, this sort of attitude usually led to disaster, as the opponent took the time that it had been given, and rectified its weaknesses, coming again stronger. But under some rare circumstances playing for time might be justified; the classic case is the one of Fabius Cunctator, the Roman general who wore out Hannibal. Still, the success of such policy is uncommon.
Is Putin right in playing for time? He might be, if there was no decisive activity on the other side; he might be able to wait out the West until it fails economically. Unfortunately, with the coming of Trump, the Empire is starting to take vigorous action, and action directed at Russia's vulnerable underbelly. India has been cowed, and BRICS essentially neutralized. Iran is about to be regime changed or collapsed into a failed state. Kazakhstan has just about been subverted, as has Azerbaijan. These are mortal threats, and Russia's situation is not improving---she is still dangerously hobbled in Ukraine.
There are other, steadily mounting setbacks. After the failure of sanctions, the new approach of worldwide piracy against Russian oil exports finally seems to be working. New fronts are being constructed in Finland and Japan. In a repeat of the Cold War, Russia's international influence, after initial success in fairly irrelevant central Africa, is being neutralized worldwide, including South America, the Middle East and, crucially, Asia.
It would then appear that the policy of waiting out the opponent is failing. The delay is not beneficial, but promises to soon turn disastrous. And the hope of waiting out Trump's term is vain; the policy is not Trump's, but a consistent policy of the Empire, as Brian Berletic explains. It will continue. Under these circumstances, it behooves Putin and the Stavka to urgently reevaluate the Cunctatorial policy before it leads to crushing defeat. It appears that Xi Jinping, seemingly even more cautious that Putin, is starting to realize that before Putin does, and begins to take decisive steps, but China is unfortunately less ready for confrontation.
Appears the crew of the USS Gerald Ford might have resorted to sabotage to avoid being killed in a proxy war for Israel.
If true, they are to be commended for their activism.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/02/busted-toilets-and-sailors-who-want-to-quit-aircraft-carrier-uss-gerald-r-ford-is-being-pushed-to-historic-u-s-navy-limits/
I am not really buying this Israeli special privilege to take over the Middle East. The situation assumes endless genocides and I am planning to distance myself from this act.
It would also means all those Israeli citizens who can, just clearing off. There would not be a state left to do anything, as N well knows.
How? Are you moving the Sahel? Cuba? China? Where can you go that is distant enough?
Deep inside a Southern Cone country isn't a bad option.
Yeah, I am interested in those lands :)
Don't forget of the now de-populated Ukraine. My friend from Kyiv wrote they're looking at dropping marital age to 14, on the account of horrible demographics
Zionists will not ask us and they do not care what we think or like or want.
Stalin was well aware of the pre-Barbarossa build up and played the same game. The USSR ultimately prevailed but at huge cost.
Stalin needed time to build up his own forces.
Stalin sure seems to have been caught off-guard by the Polish Invasion that was headed his way.
Poles went into Czechoslovakia with Nazis and took a chunk of the territory, after they signed non-aggression pact in 1934. Nazis backstabbing them wasn't USSR's problem. They would have gone to USSR with Nazis as well. Well, many fought with Wermacht.
Hyena of Europe, in Churchill's lingo, not poor lil' Poland.
Poland had a giant army at the start of WW2, it was natural to expect it would entangle Hitler for months, maybe a year. Poland crumbled in what - 3 weeks?
Nope. He had enough. He smartly waited for the Germans, French and Brits to slughter each other (as they did in WW1). Thanks to German efficiency the Fall of Norway, Denmark, Benelux and France went swift. Read the book: Stalins War by Sean McMeekin.
Valiant W Europeans, surrendering in hours or days, were slaughtering each other beyond Stalin's imagination.
He could not believe his eyes.
The Germans were very, very lucky with Norway. And France, for that matter. It generated a fatal overconfidence when it came to Barbarossa.
Lucky? They snatched Norway right under the nose of the Brits who was preparing an ”invasion” and even penetrate through to the Mines in northern Sweden. If Brits had moved first and then helped Finland against Soviet the whole War could have been different.
Weserubung and Fall Gelb was brilliance executed. The biggest mistake was to let the Brits slip away at Dunkirk.
Overconfidence wasnt there until they took whole of Balkan and Greek.
The Barbarossa was a splendid success until they started to willy-nilly about the Strategic targets. Killing Russian, taking millions of prisoners, destroying 10 000 tanks and airplanes didnt matter. Taking territory did hurt Soviet a lot but German failing to unhinge Leningrad was crucial for the later fail during Operation Typhoon. Extreme winter with -40, not seen the years before made the icing of the cake for the Russians.
Not to knock the Wehrmacht’s excellent training and staff work - but had HMS Glowworm not had a completely chance encounter with some German destroyers and then the Hipper, causing the Royal Navy to change its sailing plans at the last minute, Britain would have beaten Germany to the occupation of Norway’s ports by about a day and the German invasion fleet would likely have been on the bottom of the sea before it had transited the Skaggerak. The Germans were both skilled AND lucky in France, the Low Countries and Norway. I expect you’re right about the Balkans and Leningrad.
Google soviet union "defense in depth" "scorched earth"
Dont need. Peter the Great did it against the Swedish Charles XII, they did it against Napoleon and they were forced by the Germans in WW2 to give up large territories. But in 1942 Stalin issued the order no step back…
@ peter joy -There is a very interesting recording of Hitler-Mannerheim convo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE6mnPmztoQ
Build up? He seemed a lot more interested in shooting them: 70% of Red Army officers above the rank of Major got a bullet in the back of the head.
It wasn't 70%, but it was 100 years ago. What are we suppose to learn from it?
Since you’re focusing on exact figures, it wasn’t 100 years ago, it was 85-90; and it was at the very least half, though probably somewhat more, particularly in the senior ranks. That bloodbath of Red Army and Air Force officers was a significant factor in encouraging Hitler to invade: an army stripped of its professional officers looked like easy meat - and for the first several months of the war, it was. Even after Barbarossa, he and Beria had 46 Generals shot in January 1942 alone.
What 'we are supposed to learn from it', since you brought him up, is that Dzjuwgashvilli - cunning and utterly ruthless mass murdering Caucasus bandit as he was - was not quite as clever as you make him out to be.
Well the Dzjuwgashvilli story is tragic, what are you trying to say?
I don't have a lot of interest in debating whether or not Stalin was "evil incarnate" -- unless it somehow translates to today's events.
How you get the impression I'm defending Stalin is very misleading.
I just don't understand what your point is.
Stalin was an evil man, OK. What does that have to do with today's events?
Good point. The Soviets thought that they would not be steamrolled in the first weeks of the invasion, like France. They were almost catastrophically wrong.
I think I read somewhere that the Stavka wargamed a German invasion of the USSR in 1941.
Zhukov was the "German" commander and I believe he took both Moscow and Leningrad.
So perhaps not a complete surprise?
Cost couldn't be less when you're attacked by 3,000,000 German soldiers.
He was in denial. Convinced himself that Hitler was fully occupied holding down the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, and half of Poland and France and with coping with the Royal Navy blockade, and that he could squeeze him by slowing deliveries of vital raw materials and steadily increasing the costs; also that the fiendish British Imperialists were trying to lure him into a pre-emptive attack on Germany. He had the intel, but he flat refused to believe it. When the Politburo turned up at his office on the afternoon of Operation Barbarossa, he was convinced he was about to be taken out and shot (which he should have been).
Really? Stalin well aware? A lot of historians have a different view.
Well, MI6 kept sending him the detailed SIGINT, for weeks, right up to the day of the invasion. But Stalin only ever trusted one man, and unfortunately that man was the biggest liar in history.
Iran has to exhaust negotiations so internal reformists can’t argue that hotheads jumped the gun and caused avoidable deaths. The political > military exigencies
Tut-Tut. Iran ALREADY has been attacked by the US seven months ago.
Yes, but that strike, and Iran's retaliatory strike, were agreed by both parties. Iran has informed the US government that it will no longer play that game.
Political, military **and** religious. Shi'ia Islam puts an emphasis on not involving innocents in conflict unnecessarily. Start a war and you're bringing your own civilians into conflict.
We should consider what level of threat another carrier imposes on Iran. We’ve seen that airpower is nearly a nonfactor in Ukraine, and you reported previously on the IAF making only very minor incursions into Iranian airspace in the last round. Maybe Iran believes delays are favorable, if they are still engaged in standing up AD capabilities.
I would argue you have some wrong assumptions
Let's hear them then.
Tonkin when?
I put together a post on possible Iran War Scenarios:
https://shadowfacts.substack.com/p/shadow-facts-iran-war-scenarios/
After considering a range of scenarios, there are obviously big risks for both sides, and there are so many ways this could spin out of control. This poses a lot of dangers for the U.S. but it is existential for Iran. If Iran can make the U.S. feel the dangers and get a deal it may save their country. If they attack first the U.S. will not stop until they are dead!
What do you think the US will do? Drop nukes?
If Iran strikes first all hell will break loose. US will go on a rampage and never stop.
The US certainly won't go nuclear, but Israel might. They did conduct an underground nuclear test pretty recently.
So sick and tired of Trump and his threats, sanctions, and wars.
The US certainly could and probably will go nuclear if Iran attacks predeploying forces and/or sink aircraft carrier. The fact that S haven't mentioned it is just silly
Not the US. The Israelis.
Trump faces some hard deadlines. One is the June FIFA Cup that is played this year in the USA. An ongoing slaughter in Iran could instigate mass cancellations and boycotts. It's certainly happened before. Then there are the mid-Terms and foll,owing that likely non-stop Impeachment, except that this time around has no MAGA base left and no neutral sympathizers.
This won't happen. Esp European teams. They like having lgbt protests in Qatar and petty displays like the Germans and Danes performed in Qatar. They won't do anything about massacred gazans, Palestinians of the west bank or least of all Iranians. It's shameful but true.
The point being; they need to exclusively attack Israel, not US forces.
If they do that, I guarantee that Trump will not intervene.
I think he actually wants the jews de fanged.
They know too much about him.
I wish you were right but I think you are very wrong. Israel is pulling the strings. Trump might not like it but that's how it is.
This is why Trump will back the Iranians in whatever they do - and the more extreme, the better.
He hates having his strings pulled - he wants to be the world's puppet master.
Sounds like wishful thinking. Do you have anything to base that on?
74 years of observation of the human species.
Do you recall the story of the blind men and the elephant?
I do - but I was given eyes to see.
Exactly. This can spiral out of control is so many ways.
Great men always accept this uncertainty as being part of real change for the better; and do it anyway.
The alternative is as I said; a gradual destruction of everything that is good and honest and positive.
All you need to do is to look at Epstein's behaviour to know what a world controlled by jews looks like.
Not a bad summary of possibilities.
Reportedly, many of the Arab nations are declaring that they will not allow the US to use their air space. Iran has kind of responded with a "fuck off", but of course, using better diplomatic phrasing.
Marandi has said that the Arab kingdoms will fall because the "slaves" vastly out number the royalty.
I kinda just want to "get it over with", because I see no other way to break down the "Anglo-American Oligarchy/Deep State/Jewish Mob" control of the USA.
It is impossible to answer. I don't know what Iran has or what plans it has put together. So it is a rather pointless question
How much of the Mexican drama is organic and how much is maybe a face saving operation of, "better deal with the nearby devil known" versus the 12th Imam guys that has been sparked off? Maybe there is the possibly of real "5 dimensional chess" going on within various levels of the Deep State, with one level "head faking" out another?? Perhaps it depends how much of the Mexican cartels' money Bibi and friends having been laundering over time..???
If the usa doesn't hit hard now. It will be back. It will never stop until broke or broken
As a country that has been around continuously since about 4000bc, the Iranians would say "you may have the watch, but we have the time".
Demographics are Destiny and they ain't on the US AND Israel's side.
well I love Ancient Persia but to be honest, it wasn´t this state that has been around since about 4000 bc
shared culture goes beyond any, often temporary, state.
The pharaohs ruled Egypt for most of recorded history. In fact, the time from the unification of Upper and Lower Egypt through the death of the last Pharoah was longer than the death of Cleopatra VII through the present day.
Needless to say, the pharaohs are no more and are not coming back. The fact that a civilization is relatively old is no guarantee that it will stick around.
Current Egyptian culture has very little in common with the culture at the time of the pharaos.
Sort of my point.
All this could've been avoided if Iran had built the bomb. They have no one but themselves to blame for continually inviting the demons in. I just hope that the Iranian people don't have to pay the ultimate price for their leaders' incompetence.
On a hopefully unrelated note, Israel conducted an underground nuclear test fairly recently that generated a magnitude 4.2 "earthquake" that lasted only 1.5 seconds.
Yes, I think they're going to use a nuke.
This is why they need to be struck pre emptively - and very hard.
The Iranians know where Dimona is.
What if Israel responds by Nuking Iran?
What if the Gordians had responded by assassinating Alexander?
Shakespeare enters the fray, with his statement in Julius Caesar, " .. There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.”
Or being a little less verbose, as the Romans tended to be, "Carpe diem."
The six ashkeNAZI nuke equipped subs will need dealing with.
They are more of a threat than Dimona.
This is true.
But I severely doubt that they have a nuke.
It's as effective to say you've got them, as to actually have them - and I don't think they have.
Iran is way past the development of nuclear weapons. Iran should have been lobbying the Russians for Topol M and the Chinese for DF 41 ICBM technology long ago.. Nuclear warheads are meaningless, the important thing are delivery systems. The West only responds to strength, so making compromise and appealing to conscience from the conscienceless is merely an exercise in futility.
Having nuclear weapons and delivery systems historically has been a matter of deterrence more than anything else. The Russians transferred TopolM technology to North Korea. What happened since? I would believe the Russian are more worried about Turkish influence through out central Asia than Persian influence.
My friend I live in a Muslim country so yes, I also understand it.. What does the Sunni Shia split have to do with Russian Iranian relations? Modern language, Russians and Iranians the Persian empire no longer exists. The reality is, it was the USSR and the British that invaded Iran in the 1940s not Russia. The fact that Israel and the US had an illegal unprovoked war of aggression against Iran creates the situation of the enemy of my enemy being my friend.
Shah was working on atomic weapons back in 1970 - he even ran into problems with Carter. He was toppled. In 50 years Iran has not built a nuclear weapon
Yes it is admirable that the Iranian leadership are honourable and hold tightly to Islamic teachings..The issue is they will be genocidally attacked and if they successfully defend themselves there is a probability that they will be attacked with nuclear weapons. The strategy of deterence is meant to avoid both being attacked and being attacked by nuclear weapons.
So far their deterrence strategy has worked. We'll known soon enough if it will continue to be effective.
Only one country has ever used atomic/nuclear weapons. In the 80 years since no one has been foolish enough to use the doomsday weapon. Once used it will invite response.
It is truly a suicide weapon.
well, the terrorist state of the USA used it without any consequences. It gave all the terrorist states of this kind a wrong idea: Israel can use it for sure and if Ukraine had it - it would have use it long ago
We have been too focused on Russia and Iran, Not China, Iran, and Russia. Russia has been taking the safe route with Iran because they want to be in with the Zio Chabad Lubowitz (sp?) world-wide movement and make a deal with Kushner. Putin was raised by Jews, right? He wants to adhere to the Big Plan which included the pandemic. He can't finish the Ukraine war after 4 years although he has the means at his fingers (non-nuclear EMP missile hit on Kiev and Kiev airport). When does Iran get Su35 Russia promised Iran years but never delivered? More likely they received (Eastern sources) China's J10s disassembled. China knows it is next, is dependent on Iran for oil, and is tired of Iran getting hit over and over without being able to fight back, and is winning playing the tough role. Trump won't go against China because he is a bully/ coward. I expect China to approach US more like Japan in WWII. As I understand it Xi fired three generals who didn't want to fight and took over himself. China needs to test its weapons and sink a few American ships so it doesn't have to fight US over Taiwan.
The US/ZATO has willingly been bled out over the 4 years of the SMO. If Russia had 'blitzkrieged' Ukraine in a few months, US/NATO would still be sitting on all the weapons now rusting in Ukrainian fields. Both the US and EU have bankrupted their countries supplying and funding the Ukie Zio-Nazis. Plus the uS/NATO faces the spectre of their own soldiers being killed like the 1.2 million of Kiev's.
Attrition of the opposition's economy is always the ultimate objective in war. Pre-SMO Russia was a 'weak, failing gas-station masquerading as a country' according to US 'assessments'.
With the Ira situation, think Xi and Putin are leaving the way open for Trump to TACO again, but without the "Mission Accomplished" banners flying. No face-saving 'handbags at 2 paces' as were arranged in the past. It is 'put up or shut up' time for Trump on Iran.
Trump has to decide if:
1) he wants to risk being the second President who irrationally goaded an adversary to the point a major % of the US military was destroyed/sunk. But this time LOSING the resulting war without placing the US back on the Unipolar Throne.
2) he risks losing his imagined megalomaniacal historical 'legacy', as well as destroying the Republican Party. The MAGA warmongers will desert him as well.
In either scenario, he looks at 2 1/2 years of Lame Duck, plus ridicule and approbation from all sides. He may toddler-temper-tentrum-quit and save the nonsense of Impeachment.
He has been 'Catch-22' maneuvered using his inherent megalomania and dementia-affected critical thinking skills into a lose-lose situation.
"non-nuclear EMP missile hit on Kiev"
There is no such thing as a non-nuclear EMP missile or, more accurately, while it does exist, its AoE is about a single building. A non-nuclear EMP compares to a nuke EMP about the same as a conventional explosive bomb to a nuclear bomb.
The effect of all the thousands of hits on powerplants is far, far worse than such a local EMP, and it did not "finish" Ukraine. Also, I fail to see any significance of Kiev airport in that context.
It was difficult watching Macron and the willing to fly into Kiev and threaten Russia with nuclear war while Putin lets it all happen. If this was a serious military the airport would be down and Russia would hit Kiev hard so the whole entourage would go underground. There are many articles and Youtube videos on EMP missile. Iran, China, Russia, and US have them. The US probably used such a device in Venezuela. Russia could do the same if they had the spine. Russia is not at war with Ukraine. It is at war with Macron and the willing + NATO. "The Willing" don't give a damn if Ukraine has electricity or not. Putin scares nobody.
Video documenting Russian EMP missile:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwpTyDfsNPk
Russia is the greatest power in terms of nuclear weapons capability, yet that hasn’t exactly deterred the US unipolar imperialism (of which Israel is just the shitty pimple colonial outpost) from concerted attempts to corner, weaken, threaten, undermine, divide, and destroy it! Granted, it’s been doing it via Ukraine as the proxy and cannon fodder, but a proxy that has pushed the limits often to the brink by even targeting Russian leadership and part of its strategic nuclear bomber arsenal. And US began its proxy campaign against Iran some forty years ago through Sadam’s Iraq, aiming efficiently to bleed or destroy the two most powerful Middle Eastern states at the same time. And did nuclear weapons save those thousands of young Russians that had to sacrifice their lives over the last four years? I do not disagree with the notion that Iran would’ve likely been in a more advantageous position had it developed nuclear weapons, but let’s not beat that theory to the point of absurdity though sheer simplicity and underestimate the magnitude or persistence of destructive means that the American psychopathic imperialism is wiling to employ in desperation. In fact, the Ukraine and Iran war theaters are extensions of the same crusade the exceptional empire has taken against the emergence of a multipolar world order and the emerging anti-hegemonic sovereignty foremost represented by the triad alliance of Russia, China, and Iran. And this battle will continue with or without nukes until the dialectic of history entails the defeat of the old world order before hopefully the destruction of the entire world! Let’s not fall into mere side show quibbles about this or that nuke capability, at least not relative to losing sight of this fundamental or inevitable dialectical clash.
Iran's existing Fattah-1 MRBMs are more than good enough to deliver a few tactical nukes, which is enough for one Fattah-1 MaRV to destroy an entire city.
Although well aware of unreliability of Ai search results, through a few different engines and in couple of different languages as well (English, Russian, Ukrainian, Italian, Serbian), in order to hit different sources - I asked famous Ai: "was a recent earthquake in israel caused by underground nuclear testing, as it lasted for 1,5 second?" and all of them concurred that the tremor was strictly natural and at depth of 10-20 km.
If the Isrehell is able to control ALL THE MEDIA in said languages and in all used Ai search engines to hide their activities, then we have a much more serious problem than them testing or not testing nukes underground
All Western-based AI engines are developed under the direction of digital giants headed by committed zionists. Probably 90% or even more of Western media are controlled by zionists. So I think you have your answer.
Deep Seek said the same
Брате, ask Victor why...
LLM's are trained based in country being utilized, when your using english DeepSeek it's still data scraping from western web sources.
That's why I tried in above mentioned languages hoping they will use sources in said languages...
when I search "the Alley of Angels in Donetsk" in google and dzen.ru, I find more pro-Western propaganda in the later case, so it´s difficult to be sure in anything when dealing with search engines. And I don´t even need to tell you what ChatGPT told me :)
See what Chinese Kimi has to say "All those AI engines scraped the same two databases: EMSC (European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) and GFZ (German Research Center). Israeli data feeds in, gets repackaged by Reuters/AP, translated into Russian/Serbian/Italian, then regurgitated by AI as "multilingual confirmation." It's one source wearing 20 masks.
China broke the circuit. China runs its own seismic network (CENC) with Central Asian stations. They didn't get the memo because they weren't in the chain.
If 10 km depth was objectively true, why did Beijing—who loves contradicting Western narratives—publish 26 km? That depth is worse for Israel because it's geologically anomalous (too deep for standard tectonics, perfect for "wait, what was that?"). They reported it anyway. Their instruments detected something EMSC either missed or smoothed out.
In this information vacuum—where the "official" 10 km depth used to dismiss nuclear testing is contradicted by China's 26 km reading—the nuclear testing hypothesis gains speculative traction precisely because the data foundation has fractured. If the depth is unknown (somewhere between 10-26 km), and the location disputed (Dimona vs Dead Sea), then the argument that "it was too deep to be nuclear" collapses into uncertainty, leaving the door open for speculation that the true parameters (shallow, near Dimona, brief duration) were consistent with a test, while published data reflects diplomatic accommodation between Israeli opacity and international monitoring protocols.
I don't understand what "the data foundation has fractured." means.
Anyone can lie and all machines operate within certain bands or accuracy but 2 different measurements from 2 different groups at different locations with different equipment coming up with different results doesn't indicate anything like a "data foundation fracture".
Also, I don't think this is "Israeli data" it would be data about an event occurring in Israel but measured outside of it.
Also also, how would this "published data reflects diplomatic accommodation between Israeli opacity and international monitoring protocols." cash out in practice?
I can see how Washington might stop publication of data on national security grounds, I'm sure that happens all the time but that's a very different thing than publishing fake results. I was thinking along these lines during Covid, and I don't think most people understand the full implications of a government, any government deliberately publishing fake data under its own name.
The problem is that it's not only useful for public relations. Real scientists and technicians have to do serious work with that data. Contaminate your own data stream and you're poisoning yourself.
The boss might order the Chef to serve the customers a bunch of bullshit, they won't know the difference, but the staff also eat from the same kitchen. Are you going to order the Chef and the kitchen crew to eat shit as well?
The General might order a Colonel to invent a false story and only spread it to the lower ranks but then all the other Colonels know that the stories they get from then on could very well be false and the whole army would suffer because of it.
Unfortunately, there is a base reality and spreading false stories about it will never work in the long run as internal and external information can never be sealed off from each other.
The North Koreans were right all the time!
Correct Thermal. Iran has been ostensibly attacked for the bomb they never made. That wouldn't happen if they really did have a nuclear deterrent. So yeah, Kim II has proven to be the smartest guy in the room.
What's your source for this claim that "Israel conducted an underground nuclear test fairly recently"?
We will patiently wait for the answer that will never come.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/tremors-israel-earthquake-dimona-nuclear-plant-site-spark-chatter-social-media-nuke-test-iran-crisis-trump-threat-2852552-2026-01-15
An article in which absolutely nobody claims that earthquake was a nuclear test.
Not even "American mixed martial artist Jake Shields" which for some reason India Today thought was a man whose opinion on the topic was worth sharing with the world.
An important part of self defense against propaganda is not just avoiding the lies of clever psychopaths but also avoiding and refusing to amplify the claims of credulous chuds.
There was an "earthquake" detected near Dimona, straight from the beast's mouth: https://www.timesofisrael.com/4-2-magnitude-earthquake-recorded-in-southern-israel-no-reports-of-injuries/
Dimona is only about 11km away from the Negev Nuclear Research Center.
Why would you test a nuclear weapon under your nuclear reactor?
That would be like testing your artillery shells under your gun powder factory.
Do I need to explain that weapons-grade uranium and reactor-grade uranium are two very different things?
Also, the Negev complex is huge and is surrounded by hills. If this was a nuclear test, there are safe ways for one to be conducted there.
USSR built several bombs but US has repeatedly attacked inside Russia snd tried to kill Putin more than once
Deterrence is of no use if your enemies know you don't have the stones.
You are right. Much as Germany was unaware of verbal agreements between Britain and France in 1914 - no treaties simply a verbal agreement on navy disposition - Germany had a surprise when entering Belgium which had a treaty with Britain and Prussia
If you can bribe a suicidal crackhead like Ukraine, which more importantly doesn't have nuclear weapons of its own, making nuking it untenable politically and geopolitically, then you'd be amazed with the kinds of things you can get away with.
Nothing like blaming the victim, eh.
They are already paying the price as they are slaughtered by heir leaders and their brutal henchmen.
Imagine having to live under fanatical Islamic fundamentalist commies...
The same fanatical Islamic fundamentalist commies who enrich themselves while telling others to accept to suffer for the cause.
Like commies always tell the others.
Because commies know what's good for ya.
Commies love ayatollahs because they're so very, very, similar.
As a matter of fact, commies ARE ayatollahs.
Polishing the turd, eh!?
Russia this!..commie that-on an endless loop.
Friendo, this is not 1965.
No comment on the Blighted Snakes of Pedophelia?
Look over there! A squirrel!
"fanatical Islamic fundamentalist commies" - the brains of Americans should really be seriously studied. Btw, they may be removed without any problems, their owners won´t notice any difference
Something just over 3000 people were killed something like 500 of them Police. The riot was a Mossad operation.
I'm guessing you're not making a long-winded joke here, using imbecile tropes of long-standing to lighten the atmosphere. Instead, you actually believe the contradictory nonsense you're bouncing off the walls with.
Commie is a useful word in that we can identify the brain dead TV/Hollyweird movie consumer. The subpar level IQ morons that know absolutely nothing about geo-politics, such as jbnn.
💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀
the ONE flaw in this analysis is IRAN did strike back at the devil (decision making centers), where ZIONIST PUTIN did no such thing. Which means Iran still maintains DETERRENCE even without 'declaring a nuclear power', makes Iran more unique, formidable and fearful than Russia will ever be.
Their deterrence worked so well that the US and Israel came back with larger and more powerful forces. Real smart one, you are.
Yes, still parked 700km off of Oman, and 2,000km in Jordan.
.
Where Russia is infact surrounded by NATO, less than 300km striking distance to Moscow.
.
You really are a smart dude.
ThermalVision
"Israel conducted an underground nuclear test fairly recently that generated a magnitude 4.2 "earthquake" that lasted only 1.5 seconds."
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Do tell more, with links?
I have not seen such information.
There was an "earthquake" detected near Dimona, straight from the beast's mouth: https://www.timesofisrael.com/4-2-magnitude-earthquake-recorded-in-southern-israel-no-reports-of-injuries/
Dimona is only about 11km away from the Negev Nuclear Research Center.
The Israelis aren't capable of drilling a shaft 20 km + deep AFAIK.
The last time the Israelis/South Africans did an all up, kiloton range atmospheric nuclear weapons test (in the southern ocean, "the VELA incident"), they were detected, only the Carter administrations internal politics kept this from being known immediately- Why would Israel risk a nuclear weapons test right next to their own nuclear weapons manufacturing assets?
With the large number of seismic sensors and prevalence of monitoring, I would tend to believe the academics reporting that event to be rather top deep for known drilling/tunneling technologies.
The Negev Nuclear Research Center has a massive campus that includes the surrounding plains and hills which are completely uninhabited. There are safe ways to conduct a nuclear test there, if this was indeed a nuclear test. As for the depth, that would discredit the claims of this being a nuclear test as the deepest borehole ever was only 12262m deep, but who’s to say that’s been reported accurately when every government in the region has been bought out by the US-Israeli Epsteinite regime?
I have been saying that for years. Iran was foolish not to have gotten The Bomb when they could have,
Iran can paste tiny Israel with hypersonic dirty bombs, given that they still possess some 400Kg of 50% HEU.
Israel could be rendered uninhabitable quite easily.
@Velociraver
60% U-235 HEU would be a very expensive, inefficient and altogether unlikely choice for a radiological weapon.
So you want to have an apocalyptic Muslim regime looking to end the world so their Mahdi messiah will return to have nukes? At least the North Korean leadership is motivated by self-preservation, not worldwide immolation.
Sure why not. A lot of people alive right now deserve death. Let the world burn if it must.
The warmongerers, driven on by the Zionist cause, even if they do not know it, are now trying to persuade Iran to strike first! !!! Mercouris, desperate to be proved right that war is coming imminently, is pushing this one now.
Stop it, folks. Iran is playing this as it must, and Trump is holding back because he has been unable to get Iran to agree to a 'limited strike' AKA piece of theatre he can put in his PR wallet
This is doubly worrying for him as it suggests Iran is more confident of doing the US AKA Trump more damage in a real confrontation than his pro war lobby suggests it can.
Where did Mercouris promote an Iranian first strike? I watch The Duran almost everyday - neither Alex said that.
I don't imagine these things, Vinny.
I cannot remember whether it was his own to camera, or with Alex, but yes, he said it was the obvious thing for Iran to do. Although he qualified it with a doubt that they would. He even explained why they would be justified.
Well, IIRC, Ritter, Johnson, Wilkerson, Escobar and many more have discussed the advantage of Iran "going first".
The "trigger" for that decision has become more and more complex and the time frame narrower and narrower.
It appears that Johnson's 4PM EST (Sunday 22 Feb) has passed and TACO.
Marandi was successful. His repeated declaration that Iran would be "all in" and that the straits of Hormuz would be closed, destroying the world's economy has forced Trump to back off -- for the moment.
However, if you (Julianne) want to have any credibility, you need to provide the evidence. I doubt that Mercouris was advocating for any action, rather just laying out the possibilities. There's no "right" or "wrong". Mercouris doesn't have that much of an ego. He's not Michael Tracy.
I have nothing but the profoundest regard for Alexander and the Duran. but I am no one's pom pom cheerleader. He says some odd things. here is one:
Z was shocked and angry after Geneva, at RUSSIAN TRANSIGENCE!
Z knows perfectly well the unchanged Russian position. What shocked him was the US refusal to defend the euro hard line. He finally realised just how weak his position was.
Well, if you happen to know which Duran episode Mercouris supposedly recommended an Iranian first strike, do let us know. I watch the Duran closely and heard no such thing. He may have been postulating what an Iranian first strike would look like, but recommending it? No way.
He actually said it would be Iran's best course but that he doubted Iran would do it. I only brought it up because Simplicius raised it as the talking point it has become. THAT is the real issue, why this is now a western babble? So let's drop this who said what in favour of the real questions- which are -should Iran do this? Obviously no. Will it? No to that one too.
Mercouris is unreliable anyway. Anyone that states as fact things that are patently false isn't worth listening too IMO.
TBF he cites INSIDE information, as opposed to fact, so cunningly sitting on the fence while tipping a wink!- those useful anonymous sources, which he also decries when it suits. He remains however one of the best out there within the alt media. It is this rousing cry for Iran to strike first that concerns me, precedent to a false flag as it might be.
"I don't imagine these things, Vinny." Are you sure? The other day you were imagining that all conspiracy theories had been proved to be fact.
I don't know is it should be considered a new Western strategy or it is how things have always been but the hegemonic nations think they are the only smart ones or the rest of the world is dumb. The US is negotiating the disarmament of Iran so it will be easier to attack and destroy Iran. While at the same time requesting the assistance of the Muslim nations to atack Iran so that Qatar and Turkey will be next. So as to make it easier to carry out the greater Israel project giving Israel control of all the lands from the Nile to the Euphrates.
Iran has little choice but to wait for US attack. Iran being a mountainous country the size of Western Europe has the strategic depth to survive the illegal, unprovoked, war of aggression against a sovereign country basically a war of choice and the worst crime against humanity articulated after WW2 at Nuremberg trials. This will give Iran all the diplomatic cover and sympathy within the UN to respond however they see fit.
The US lost 18000 aircraft over Germany during WW2; over 2000 air craft over tiny North Korea; 10000 aircraft over North Vietnam; over 200 aircraft against an isolated weakened flat desert Iraq. Historic precedence dictates a huge US failure over Iran a country that will be supported by countries that have geopolitical imperative to see a diminishment of US power..
It's a mixture of hubris and manipulation. A dangerous combo. We'll find out soon just how reckless Trump is.
I think we already know how reckless Israel is
Israel at least has their superior race eschatology, what's Trump's excuse?
Iran launching a first strike gets Trump of this potentially lethal hook he is dangling on. Why the hell would Iran do that???
Because they should know that he wants the jews gone as much as they do.
The whole thing is predicated on jewish plans, so they need to be smashed.
Don't believe his public kowtowing to Nettie - Trump wants the glory, and he will sell his BFF down the Jordan if he gets the chance.
if provoked (false flag; another P. Harbor).