The Games Begin: US and Russian Top Dogs Face Off in Riyadh
In this hefty ~3,500 word article we go into the current setup for negotiations between the two great powers. The exclusive paid section afterwards will deal primarily with predictions on how things will play out over the course of the next six months to a year, including how the conflict might settle.
Things are rolling full steam ahead on the ‘negotiations’ front. Russian and American counterparts are set to meet in Riyadh tomorrow, February 18th. The American team is said to consist of Rubio, Witkoff, and Mike Waltz, and the Russian one of Lavrov, Putin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev.
Ushakov was once famous in Russian media for allegedly having an assistant, one Oleg Smolenkov, who was accused of being a CIA informant after allegedly being ‘exfiltrated’ to the US. If true, this is obviously a concerning bit of information.
They are seen arriving to Riyadh, Ushakov just behind Lavrov:
Edit: the negotiations have now commenced:
Lavrov’s inclusion is interesting only because he has issued the most recent direct statement that gives us a clue of the tenor of the upcoming negotiations:
"Let us be clear. No land where Russian people live will be ceded to Ukraine. Why would we make any such territorial concessions? Ukraine would simply kill those people" - Russian Foreign Ministry
This was followed by a statement from UN rep Nebenzya wherein he confirmed both Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are permanently lost to Ukraine, and will not be considered negotiable, as well as again reiterating the demilitarization component of Russian demands:
The Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, amidst talks about the end of Russia's war against Ukraine, made a new statement. "Ukraine has now irreversibly lost not only Crimea but also the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which have been incorporated into Russia. Accordingly, the situation needs to be addressed in the regions that remain under Kyiv's control." - said the mouthpiece of Russian propaganda at the UN. In addition, Nebenzya insists that the "future Ukraine," as envisioned by Moscow, should be a "demilitarized neutral state that does not belong to any blocs or alliances."
As can be seen from the above, major conditions are already outlined in advance—Russia will not be discussing any territorial concessions or land swaps with Kursk, and demilitarization is still on the table.
Here Ushakov is interviewed by Yevgeny Popov upon arrival to Riyadh:
Note the very important point he makes: he appears to imply the real purpose of these negotiations is not to actually decide or conclude anything, but to very gradually begin thawing the relations between Russia and the US, as a first step of ‘normalization’. This is backed up by other Russian analysts:
Negotiation track, Dmitry Peskov's statements. Lavrov and Ushakov flew to Riyadh on behalf of the Russian president for talks with representatives of the Trump administration. First of all, they will discuss the restoration of friendly and mutually beneficial relations between the two countries, and not Ukraine with its inadequate wishlist.
Ushakov further implies that they’re not expecting major progress because both sides have sent very serious people, which I believe is meant to convey that the Russian delegation will not be easily swayed or manipulated, but will be unyielding in representing their interests.
Kirill Dmitriev also hinted that the meetings are more about establishing relations, rather than solving the Ukraine issue right away:
And if you still aren’t convinced how serious the Russians are in standing their ground—rather than meekly ‘being led by the nose’, as many fear or expect—here’s another ominous statement from Lavrov, which seems to imply that Russia intends to exact strong retribution from everyone involved in the tragedy of Ukraine:
Listen to those words above, does that sound like a negotiations team ready to “concede” to the US?
The negotiations are meant to be just a primer before Trump and Putin meet in person, potentially later this month.
Of course the real nub of the negotiations will revolve around what the US is secretly willing to offer. On the surface, Trump and co. must preserve their bold American bravura, but these opening forays are non-starters for Russia. In reality, behind the scenes there are hintings that Trump may be ready to go much farther, perhaps even make some of Lavrov’s earlier dreams into realities.
For instance, rumors now abound of Trump really doing a number on Europe unlike anything previously imagined. Firstly, there’s the outrage revolving around Trump’s ‘unfriendly’ strangulation of Ukraine—read Trump’s shocking alleged terms highlighted below:
"If this draft were accepted, Trump’s demands would take a larger share of Ukraine’s GDP than the reparations imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles—later reduced at the 1921 London Conference and the 1924 Dawes Plan. Meanwhile, he appears willing to let Russia off the hook entirely."
In a proposed economic agreement on "compensation" from Washington to Kiev, the terms go far beyond control over Ukraine’s critical minerals. The deal extends to everything from ports and infrastructure to oil, gas, and the broader resource base of the country. Under the agreement, the U.S. and Ukraine would establish a joint investment fund to ensure that "hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction."
As part of the terms, the U.S. would take 50% of Ukraine's current resource extraction revenues and 50% of the financial value of all new licenses issued to third parties for future resource monetization. A lien on these revenues would also be placed in favor of the U.S. One source familiar with the negotiations remarked, “This provision essentially means, ‘Pay us first, then feed your children.’
“We’re not just a raw materials farm” Zelensky whines.
Then there are the rumors that Trump has already pulled intelligence from Ukraine:
Here is more information from the enemy's channels, if they were true that would be great:
Yes, there is some unpleasant news, so far at the level of classified information and rumors, but apparently that is the way it is based on recent events.
It seems that the United States has stopped providing us with information on Russian strategic weapons movements.
And our only eyes are the British reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea, which at best covers the south and west of the country, the rest we cannot see.
Neither the redeployment, nor the take-off of the beavers, nor the launching of the missiles, only when they are already over our territory
Granted, the above should be taken with a big grain of salt as it’s the least corroborated, but it adds flavor to the ongoing revelations.
Next are the reports that Trump may only allow US weapons to Ukraine if they are purchased by European countries:
This was after Hegseth stated that “overwhelming share of lethal and non-lethal assistance to Kiev in the future should be provided by the Europeans, not Washington.”
Well, that’s fair, isn’t it? The ‘Russian threat’ is a European security problem, shouldn’t they be the ones funding it?
But the potential moves get worse:
The above from ‘ex-Pentagon officer’ David Pyne is just his own opinion and analysis, but as seen in the Daily Mail piece above, even mainstream press is beginning to consider the possibilities of similar options.
Trump seemed to hint warnings to Ukraine and Europe with a re-iteration that Russia is a military powerhouse which defeated Napoleon and Hitler. Taken along with Trump’s other recent statement about Ukraine possibly becoming ‘Russian’ in the future, we can only assume that these are subtle signals from Trump to Ukraine and Europe that he is prepared to allow Russia to do whatever it needs to do, should Europe and Ukraine not play ball in accordance with whatever it is that the US-Russia talks happen to settle on.
But as seen from the hints delivered by Lavrov and Ushakov—and even Peskov who said yesterday that all negotiations would be done with the consideration of previous ‘Minsk betrayals’—Russia is not willing to bend this time around. This means that the ‘talks’—even the upcoming ones between Trump and Putin personally—are likely only to be the very opening normalization procedures of a very long process, which will take its natural course through the remainder of the year, as the Russian army continues to plow ahead.
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