It has happened for only the second time of the war: the Russian Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile dubbed the Oreshnik was launched from the Kapustin Yar range toward Lvov, again providing the world with an eerie spectacle:
‼️Update: Russia confirms the Oreshnik strike was a retaliation for the attack on Putin's residence:
Full statement by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the response to the attack by Kiev on Putin’s residence:
“Tonight, in response to the terrorist attack carried out by the Kiev regime against the residence of the President of the Russian Federation in the Novgorod Region, undertaken on the night of December 29, 2025, the Armed Forces of Russia delivered a massive strike using high-precision long-range weapons based on land and sea platforms, including the medium-range mobile ground-based missile system ‘Oreshnik’, as well as strike unmanned aerial vehicles, against critically important facilities on the territory of Ukraine.
The objectives of the strike have been achieved. Facilities involved in the production of unmanned aerial vehicles that were used during the terrorist attack, as well as elements of the energy infrastructure that ensure the operation of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, have been hit.
Any terrorist actions by the criminal Ukrainian regime will continue to be met with a response.”
Those has storage facilities were 400m below ground. This was an amazing strike and demonstration of Russia's superiority in weapons systems. The Pentagon must be absolutely freaking out right now.
What indication do you have that the storage was empty? It is critical to surviving the winter intact and winter is just starting. Europe includes it in its assessment of total storage available in all of Europe.
no, you're wrong. Didn't you hear DJT tell the world that he's not finished with Putin yet, "he's killed a lot of people." He has the gall to say such a thing when he is the Godfather of the Gaza genocide, of which he is so darned proud -- he brought peace there, ya know? Of course, he may not consider that the Palestinians are actually people. They definitely stand between him and Las Vegas East, where everything is gilded. As for more, DJT is already in a world of trouble as most of the US does NOT support his damned wars passing as "peaceful transitions to democracy." (Hearing Starmer say that about Venezuela and the US kidnapping and invasion and contrasting that with Russia defending vital national security interests with its invasion of Ukraine -- really astoundingly pitiful.)
DJT was the one who started sending lethal weapons yo Ukraine during his 1st term. The only reason anyone would do that is to start war with Russia. Accusing Russia of SELF-defense by those who CHOSE to attack it UNPROVOKED and with zero threat to themselves is rich.
Undoubtedly the storage is broken down into compartments. If by obliterated, do you mean the entirety of it was destroyed with nothing left intact? Do you mean a very large part of it was destroyed with what content remains available only with inefficient work arounds that will last for only a short time? Do you mean all the contents were lost but with repairs it can be refilled at some point in the distant future if and when Ukraine has spare nat gas to do so?
I know nothing about the problem but I would guess that doing major construction to rebuild something underground previously filled with nat gas harboring an uncertain amount still remaining, in below freezing temperatures with everything covered in snow might be an especially daunting task.
Below about 2.5 meters it is not freezing. It is quite warm.
The kinetic pods from a chestnut strike are heavy, dense and burn very hot. Imagine throwing a stone into a pond and watching the ripples. That is what the shock waves do below the surface.
By below freezing I was referring to outside conditions where much of the repair work will have to bone. Any chamber open to the outside as a result of damage will also be cold. If nothing else, that requires workers to wear cumbersome cold weather gear while doing what it is that has to be done there.
And you are correct. It is the shock wave radiating through surrounding surfaces causing them to be weakened and made crumbly is a very serious after effect of hyper sonic strikes. The Oreshnik seems designed to maximize that.
I just posted below, speculating that this was launched from a mobile platform, much closer than 1800 km. The published range, time, and speed numbers aren't working out in my ballistic-missle calculator. Oreshnik is more effective the closer it is launched to the target because 1) the re-entry angle is closer to vertical, so less drag loss and 2) less energy spent in horizontal travel means more kinetic energy in the vertical.
That's true, it's interesting how the first strike in 2024 on Yuzhmash in Dnipro, which is much closer, the "rods" were almost vertical. In today's strikes on Lvov (much farther) the "rods" were at nearly a 45 degree angle.
Ok, that's about 60 degrees from horizontal, from that camera's POV. It can be less than that, but not greater. In order to figure out whether this was mobile or not we'll need better numbers on some combination of the range, time of flight, re-entry angle, apogee, or velocity. Any two will do. It took days-weeks to get to so-so trajectory numbers on the first Oreshnik.
It looks that the launch from Kapustin Yat has been announced as a non nuclear, not aimed at NATO/US targets outside UA to the US over an hour in advance - sensible move -, and Kiev was informed at the time of the launch - 15 minutes or so before impact. As to the angle, it is hard to say as it depends on camera position and angle too. From the least inclination, I would guess 60-75° rather than 45. As the Oreshnik as well as the single warheads may be navigable even close to impact, every angle above 30° is possible.
I dunno. The Oreshnik has entered combat readiness (and is in Belarus too). Why would they only launch from the test site as it well past the testing phase?
Because the difference between launching from a known test site (pre-announced, too) or from some random spot in a forest (announced or not) is that the latter is "Push the Red Button, we have missile inbound" stuff...
*Many* "rain of nukes" scenarios start with a single missile launch....
Actually if you are serious, you do it in this case precisely from somewhere unannounced.
You want to push their red lines.
A single missile should not result in immediate total launch, much less a single missile the trajectory of which clearly goes towards Poland and not towards North America.
Right now Russian early warning systems are completely compromised because shit is flying all over the western quarter of the country 24/7. Normally that is supposed be absolutely impermissible and ended immediately by the total physical annihilation of the source of it, i.e. Europe.
Of course, one might also ask if Oreshnik actually follows a strictly ballistic trajectory. Seems to me it doesn't have to - even if it initially followed such a trajectory, it's final approach to the target might be subject to parameters given its MIRVs.
I noticed some folks posting that this one only had 6 projectiles instead of the 36 or so the first one had. I think I can only see 6 "bolts" in the videos, but I do hear more strikes - so maybe the others were just out of shot of the video cameras?
Perhaps there are alternative payloads---the Yuzhmash strike seemed to use one set of a different kind than the others, probably for testing. So maybe they tested something different this time. Also for testing.
First oreshnik was 6x6 configuration, so here we have the case of either tighter cluster for each 'silo', or they put something single(heavier) instead of 6 warheads.
point being that Putin is confirming that by stating "...the medium-range MOBILE ground-based missile system ‘Oreshnik’". If true, then the possibility of salvos of mobile bunker-busting Oreshniks launched from a few hundred km away has just been demonstrated.
If I understand correctly, the green dwarf, his cabinet and government, the elected officials, the clown gang aren't even worth wasting a single nut on. The garden gnomes aren't either, but it's their interests that have been destroyed.
Springtime comes early to NAZI Llov as the HaZel shrubs pollinate the snowy wasteland. A marvellous sight to behold indeed. God bless Mother Russia and all her people.
To quote Don Maclean
"They would not listen, they did not know how. Perhaps they'll listen now."
Bye bye Mr American....pie, if you'll pardon the sarcasm.
Thank you yet again, Simplicious for your exceptional journalism. We are all in your debt.
Dhdh there is not the brightest bulb in the neon sign. He refuses to get it and anyway it's too late and too expensive for him to get his Onkel Adolf tattoo removed. His reading skills are not up to it so here's the vid version for him...not that I imagine he'll ever figure out how much BS he has swalloweed with that NAZI shit of his.
Trying to explain to him one more time the Onkel Adolf juice bankster gig but I don't suppose he'll ever get beyond his programming.
I don’t get it. It seems to me like those targets, drone factories, etc, should’ve been hit regardless of any Ukrainian attacks on Putin’s residence, as part and parcel of the dismantling of Ukrainian resistance. To me this doesn’t do the job of retaliating for misbehaviour.
All the Russians have to do to win is not lose; the Septics and their lackeys don't have that luxury, hence the provocations everywhere else. The Russians ought to keep the SMO going, that'll infuriate all those short-arses in Caesar's entourage. ;O)
A question: The exact coordinates are 49°21'37.7"N 23°54'16.2"E
for the building complex in your report. The area is about 400x1000 meter, but isnt it plausible that the gas stored is not accessed right under the buildings?
If you move north into the woods you have small roads and three areas with small buildings and hundreds of ventholes(?). I think the main hit was int his wooded area to penetrate the storage below and one of the Oreshnik loads flattened the main building area.
(The Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground gas storage (UGS) facility is the largest natural gas depot in Europe, with a total capacity of 17 billion cubic meters. It is located in the Stryi district of Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, approximately 60 km south of Lviv city.)
Some sources says the deposits are 400-2000 meter beneath…
I doubt the arrows can go so deep. But as the Russians has said before, Oreshnik causes a earthquake like damage in the ground, probably causing cracks in those pipes drilled down.
"Update: Russia confirms the Oreshnik strike was a retaliation for the attack on Putin's residence . . . ."
The word out is that the US teed-up on Putin's location off the location of Putin's cellphone used in a call with US President Donald Trump, and Putin out-smarted Trump. Putin had the GPS signal originate in Putin's residence, someplace where Putin was not. Smart, if true.
It's all nonsense.
Even Ukraine bowed out on taking responsibility for this cheap shot. Ukraine knew responsibility would still be dropped on their heads by both the US and Russia -- either way, any way, every way.
The Ukrainians can't tie their own shoelaces without US GPS and satellite imaging technology. But even the Ukrainians know a direct decapitation strike, like the one allegedly carried out on Putin, while he was "home," carried huge risks and even larger consequences, especially if the attack failed. Which, the narrative said, it did.
And here we are again with Russia. True, real, retaliation would have been Russia dropping loaded Oreshniks (not another batch of Oreshniks loaded with blanks) and dropping them on each UK and European capital.
do you have a death wish? Some of us have children, you know. We don´t want them to burn in nuclear strikes. Putin is exremely cautious for me, and you, and everybody´s sake
Hmm.....the people without nat gas in Lvov, the relatively safe city close to the border with Poland might think it is decisive. It is them and Poland that the Russians want to impress not you.
If the above post is correct the videographer filmed at southwest and they presume that it was bu kers on the airfield that was Haxelnutted. Indeed, there are bunkers to the south of the strip and one can see huge shadows where the entrance is.
But.
If the filmin person was standing only 1,3 kilometer from the impact we should have heard something and seen trembling. Nothing of it.
On NASA Firemaps there are two ”fires” further south and southwest of Lvov. And very near the location of the on-ground-facilities for the gas storage. But those three fires(bolts) are located kilometers to the west but in a clear line of the footage.
Either do the Russian know where the deposit is thin or where most damage can be done so they penetrated it a long way from the official site.
There were reports people felt an earthquake in Lvov, but that is unverified, and highly doubtful -- it would mean at least one of the MIRVs carried a nuke.
The kinetic penetrators themselves could have set the gas storage on fire, but not much more than that. And the spread on the video was not all that large, so it looks like it was the gas storage alone that was targeted.
This is where I think you’re wrong. Escalation (or rather, proper retaliation) will not automatically lead to WW3, because Europe is a paper tiger that is nothing without daddy America. If anything, it will make people in Europe realize that this could get real real soon and that maybe they shouldn’t sacrifice their security just to deny the ethnic Russians in the Donbass the right to not be discriminated against. Luke warm responses only embolden the Western leaders to escalate further. Sometimes you need escalation to deescalate.
Also, if the war is with NATO, don’t you have to beat …idk… NATO? Kinda weird to not fight your actual opponent.
Lastly, Ukraine is only the beginning, they will use Poland, the Baltics, Stans, Georgia, etc, so the only solution is to defeat them and the only way to do that is calling their bluff. America is not going to sacrifice New York for Helsinki, believe me.
GM is most likely Russian and very well educated. That makes his reasoning about the USSR the best on this thread. But yes unfortunately many of very knowledgeable and brilliant Russian pro-USSR folks are extremely anti-Putin. I can understand them. For them he still represents the liberal capitalism that has tried to destroy our country, but they are missing a lot of factors and ignore a lot of information here. And I am also afraid that they are under the spell of NATO propaganda without knowing it
I agree and thank you for the information. Russia, in my humble opinion, and the world are fortunate to have Putin as the only sane and balanced leader in all of Europe. I think the man does a masterful job walking an extremely perilous geopolitical tightrope. Ask the average Russian if they are better off today than when Putin entered office, and the answer is a resounding yes. Do you think Russian temperament accounts for this paradox among some of the Russian elite? After all, from what I read, Putin enjoys the type of widespread support in Russia that the Western elite would do almost anything to have. I mean, Macron at 11%, Starmer at 19%, and Mertz catching up. The only way the European elite wins elections is by declaring unfavorable results null and void (see Romania).
You are howling for total war...obviously not too much left to live for. Either you are a snotty-nosed, know-it all kid or you are hobbling around on your last legs. Lighten up and let Mother Russia do it her way. Mother knows best you cheeky little squirt slash old fart.
Are these not targets that should’ve been hit in the normal course of the conduct of the war? They don’t seem to have any value to have retaliatory effect.
If they really wiped that storage facility, then it's not just fatal blow to Ukraine (imagine losing both electricity AND gas during winter), but this storage facility was used by Europe too.
Which would all be signs of great statesmanship, and I do think he is a great statesman, if your opponent played by the same rules. If they play dirty, you either match them or you’ll lose, it’s that simple.
Is he? Are Brits and Americans dying or are Russians and ethnic Russians? Winning would be convincing Mexico or Scotland that the US or England was about to invade and supporting them with Oreshkins to fire into Washington/London. After they burn up all Ukrainians, they’ll find other dupes to fight their war for them. The war is with NATO, not Ukraine.
Russia is defeating NATO - the Ukraine is just a stalking-horse. That is one of the main reasons why the SMO has lasted so long. Russia has allowed, even invited NATO to keep pumping money and weapons into the Ukraine. Now most of the NATO members have noticed that they are critically short of money and weapons - without having altered the result of the SMO.
Just this morning I was listening to an account of the fighting in Kupyansk. An experienced military officer explained that the Russian retreat from parts of Kupyansk is consistent with their usual tactics. When the Ukrainians scrape up a few brigades from elsewhere and throw them into a town that the Russians had almost captured, the Russians back off and the Ukrainans rush in. Then they need extra supplies, which are sent. Presently the Russians cut off the supply roads, and the whole lot are killed or captured.
On a miniature scale, that is what Russia has been doing to NATO. And that is why I say that Russia is winning.
I was very politely not mentioning this. This is, yet again, a threatening pose. Will the orange blob be intimidated? I doubt it but we'll see I suppose.
Intimidated? Not on your life. He is thrilled - his proxy shield has protected him again.
Personally, I think the target should have been Ramstein Airbase. That might wake them up.
Indeed, I believe that not only should the Russians have hit Ramstein, but they should have given the Americans a day's notice and publicised it around the world. That would have been a huge, huge embarrassment to the Americans in front of world, clearly demonstrating that the Americans have no defence against Russian weapons.
Well, if you are going to attack that side of the coin, then I would go for broke and lob one into the centre of the City of London, paying particular attention to the banking centres.
Of course, they could save ammo by taking the isreali approach and assassinating three or four billionaires one night.
guys, you don´t understand one thing. When nukes start to fly it is crazy to only limit them to some locations. It´s deadly dangerous. It will be a full scale nuclear exchange. Do you really want it?
I've never advocated using nuclear weapons because I tend toward this conclusion, but I'll leave GM to explain why it wouldn't - it makes sense, but I'm afraid people would stop making sense if the nukes start flying. However, in my opinion, Russia's appeasement, and indeed now everybody's appeasement, of the US could lead us into nuclear war. In fact I think it's the shortest and quickest route to that outcome, which is why I have advocated much, much stronger conventional actions.
Of course. If Putin, the Russian leadership, or the Russian military had possessed the same courage and guts, there would have been no need to sacrifice a million of their own citizens, nor would there have been any need to endure the insults and harassment of the American and Western braggarts.
As with all the previous military "alliances" in Europe, NATO will eventually eat itself. All the previous alliances failed, resulting in conflicts between their former members soon after their collapse.
There is only one place the US has ever colonized and then released, and that was the Philippines, and only because the US at the time was racist enough to let it go because it didn't want so many brown people to be part of the US. And because the Japanese had occupied it for a while too, plus it was the perfect place for guerilla warfare.
Yankland has achieved its goal of destroying Western Europe and ensuring that there will never be enough trust for a united Europe. Western Europe is weak and failing and meanwhile terroristTrump can work on the everlasting memorial to his greatness he is so desperate for, the Technate of America.
Venezuela was the 1st step and he has gotten away with it, next will be to take Greenland then Columbia. After that it will be Nicaragua followed by Panama.
The aim will be to domino North and Mexico which like Canada are part of the NAU, (DNA) Declaration of North America :
Will be told "join or else" and after that it is going to be a One World autocratic government where the proletariat will have zero freedom forevermore.
At least that is the plan of terrorist Trump and his insane band of murderous lunatics.
It's urgent that we all take pity on Taco and pool our money to pay for his electroshock therapy. One of his latest statements: "We have recovered the oil" from the Mariner tanker, which was completely empty of any cargo. Another: "The oil recovered from the tankers has already earned us billions." I really think the bullet he took didn't just take a piece of his ear.
He’s a semi-senile dotard now, like Biden, Pelosi and Schumer, and like Andropov, Chernyenko, Brezhnev, Ceaucescu and Honecker before them. Much more dangerous, though.
That lot of ‘socialists’ were dusty, geriatric fools in stagnant, failing systems that had long lost whatever legitimacy they had ever possessed - much the same as their (admittedly merely middle aged) equivalents in western Europe. But no, I wouldn’t call any of them ‘mirderous'. Your Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Mao Zedong, Enver Hoxha and, of course - the greatest socialist of them all - Mr Pol Pot are another matter.
Slow down there a tad already...What has the Orange Pedovore actually achieved with the Mafia style hit and abduction of Nicolas Maduro? Zilch apart from his usual Hollyweird scripted style PR bullshit for the $lumville retards. No stinky boots on the ground despite all the bluster...there won't be either and nary a drop of oil stolen that wasn't already pumped and loaded onto ships that the pirates could easily steal. As for Colombia and neighbors you should listen to Pepe Escobar "Mr Pipelineistan" himself; all of Latin America despises the Yanqui beast more than ever. After Onkel Schmuel got his wobbly ass kicked senseless by the sandal guys in Vietnam do you really imagine that even Petey Hogshead and his Pentacon chattel are dumb enough to wade through the swamps and jungles of Venezuela and Colombia? Nah it ain't gonna happen even if they could muster and "pay" for enough "dumb stupid animals" as the ZionaZi terrorist fascist, Kissinger called the $lumville army.
Onward ever faster to the total co££ap$€ of their worthless IOU ex Saudimercan toilet paper fiat filth dollah !
Never underestimate their stupidity. After all, they prevoked a war with Russia and lost. How does that look after spending hundreds of billions they didn't have?
That was the plan all along...believe it or not. Ask poisoned cookie dispensing monster and chosenite fatty, Vikki (fuck the EU) Nudelman slash Nuland and her foppish sidekick, Jeffy Pyatt and the rest of the chosen that started the Maidan slaughter. When you got "friends" in $lumville you sure as hell don't need enemies.
So the angloZionaZi$ conned the EUSSR mobsters to start a war with the Bear and the euro peons were dumb enough to imagine that their Pentacon Don would "back them up"; these clowns "running" the evil EUSSR know nothing of history especially their own. When did $lumville send "expeditionary forces" to join in the fun and games of WW1? That's right, april 6th 1917 when most of the shit had already hit the fan. Then the Pentacon cavalry shows up and wins the spoils. When did $lumville join in on the fun and games in WW2? That's right in December 1941 when it was obvious that their NAZI clowns were going to lose and attacked Russia in June 1941, having financed both sides to tear each other apart. (works every time!) The punks who financed all sides sat back and let the idiot euro peons kick the crap out of each other and then Onkel Schmuel rides in to blow his bugle and plunder the losers. Same trick works every time with the scum running Urupp coZ it's all rigged, a con job and the banksters laugh all the way back to the...bank. All wars are banksters wars and war is the harvest of the Jews. Meanwhile cheeZ head, limp-wristed General Rutt from Bangladesh of the North is sitting back for now and waiting his next orders from the Washing town sewer.
They travel faster. The MIRVs detach at mach 10 and then descend at near vertical trajectory. You're looking at mach 13 ++, likely closer to mach 15/16.
The gas at the target was stored 400 metres underground - if the Oreshnik penetrated that deep (I have no doubt that it did), we are looking at the deepest impact in human history by a man made weapons system.
Impulse is a fixed number with solid fuel rockets, so range is adjusted with trajectory.
If you follow the thread under Simplicius' top post, these submunitions came in at a slightly shallower angle than the first missiles' submunitions, implying a depressed trajectory to extend the range.
This would suggest that Kapustin Yar -> Lviv is getting close to maximum useful range.
Don't say it too loud—Taco is convinced he has the most effective and spectacular bunker busters. He might have an existential crisis if he finds out nothing is true.
You don't need to hit storage itself - it's just porous rock. All you need to do is to collapse shaft/pipe knicknacks which used to pump gas in and out and whole operation is kaput.
It's legitimately hard to restore if damage done if sufficient manner and I doubt Naftogaz have good enough engineering - they've completely ran down gas infrastructure they've inherited from USSR in classic Ukie style.
Not to mention, Russia can attack site again when they start fixing it
I'll answer for him. Yes, they are carried inside the missile. More seriously, the Orechnik warheads reach a speed higher than the missile once released—Mach 14 and above, with all due reservations.
Nobody is seriously impressed, they are laughing at Putin in DC once again, because he he is hitting the proxy and does not have it in him to strike DC.
Meanwhile the naval blockade is being tightened and no longer even hidden behind the proxy.
So let me get this straight -- the US can bomb deep inside Russia 24/7, which is what has been happening for a year and a half now, but Russia has no right to strike the US directly?
The US is not doing so directly, though, it's doing so behind a proxy because presumably there are still a few sane heads left there in the US. If you destroy their proxy you call their bluff.
A few months ago he said that the USA has already hit Russia with several nuclear weapons, but everyone apart from himself was just too scared to mention the fact.
Either he's an agent provocateur trying to flush out Western Putinistas, a Slavic 6th columnist (just learnt that term recently) trying gin up support for the apocalypse, or else he's a genuine schizoid
Prof. Sergei Karaganov. Once an unofficial advisor to the Kremlin and leaders including President Vladimir Putin, he now heads the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He believes that after more than three years, the world has realised Russia is at “war with Europe on Ukrainian territory”.
Karaganov noted how Russia had not yet used a nuclear bomb in the war in Ukraine and believes that the US began withdrawing from the war, even under the Biden administration, “when it realised… that it was fighting a losing war, just like it lost in Afghanistan and Iraq… For them, this war is unnecessary”.
this Council for Foreign and Defence Policy is a self-named liberal organisation that "saw the light" after 2022.02.24. As I told earlier, Putin is a liberal by character, I mean that old-time liberal - freedom of speech abd discussion and so on. Another person from this shady "Council" is Fiodor Lukyanov who is regularly interviewed by Duran guys. He also arranges the Valdai conference. Extremely unpleasant man, true liberal (in the new meaning of this word)
That paper the link of which you shared, it’s very meaty.
Here are two choice paragraphs:
“ Conducting regular, close and immediate―we have lost much time already―consultations with Russia’s international partners from among the World Majority countries (especially SCO and BRICS members). Initially this can be done at a senior expert level. Russia should convincingly prove to the leadership, elites, and societies of friendly countries the fairness of its approach, and the validity and accuracy of its political course; convince them that our struggle in Ukraine is part of a global movement for a new world order, free from the hegemony of one country or a group of countries, and that Russia’s defeat would be their defeat as well.
…
Since the active deterrence strategy targets primarily the military-political leadership of the United States and other leading Western countries, as well as the circles that stand above them, these groups of people should be deprived of psychological comfort. Russia should publicly inform them that it will aim its nuclear deterrent at the places where members of the U.S. and Western elites reside. They must understand that they can no longer live in a comfortable and fully protected state.”
There’s no controversy in my mind about this, in fact a lot of what it’s said there is what I’ve been expecting to happen ever since the beginning of the war. Particularly since I heard Putin quoted as saying that he learnt in his childhood’s neighbourhood to strike first if you decided to fight. I haven’t seen that in the Russians, only timidity and reactivity.
I’ll tell you something though, if he wanted to strike the centres of government in the UK he wouldn’t be able to find a better moment than while Starmer is in, he is hated.
Karaganov is insane. Not to mention his brilliant idea "let´s bomb Poland to scare the US", but all his ideas are stupid. Like, recently he said "USA is leaving their world-domination idea and moving into the world of regions". I mean, what? Man, stop taking this stuff you are obviously abusing
This is true. This move won't touch the Western mind. The west acts in young, dynamic fashion, like kidnapping of Maduro. Now, the young people of Iran are going to destroy that state for the sake of their western masters. The young generation all over the world wants just one thing - to become Americans, to consume, to buy shit and watch TV.
I agree that they are laughing in DC, but it's based in ignorance. The Russian escalation ladder isn't like the western, it's much more patient. More digital, but once the threshold is met, a strong reaction will follow no then the west will scream in surprise how disproportionate it is.
Exactly my thoughts. The wrath of Thor has spoken. Add to the Ukrainian list of obvious terrorism the New Year's Eve drone attack that targeted a densely populated Russian community in which 30+ civilians were killed. Cowards. How about the poisonous dwarf Zelensky suggesting that Trump should kidnap the leader of Chechnya? The leader's reply said that Zelensky should stop relying on others to do his dirty work, and that he should man up and try sending Ukrainians to Chechnya, where they will receive a proper Muslim welcome!
I heard a rumor the ship had no oil, but tons of VZ silver on board. On one hand, that makes sense as by the tanker waterline you can tell its empty, but then why would it be pursued so vigorously if not for something on board.
It had two Russians on board, and they may have thought there were more. Hostages, and yet another spit in the face of Putin. Trump is deliberately seeking to discredit Putin in the eyes of the world. Everybody here, of course, thinks Putin is a minor god, but the rest of the world might be seeing things differently.
edit 1/9: word is they're releasing the Russians, so perhaps they weren't looking for hostages, or two weren't enough, or they've gotten what they wanted by releasing them and receiving Russia's thanks. Like thanking a mugger for not killing you after he steals your money.
Putin's behavior puzzles me allot more than transparent Trump, who wants to be Tony Montana with a 1.5T thug budget.
Maybe Putin is controlled opposition to just justify that 1.5T gift, but maybe Russia has gamed out that nuke war is inevitable , and its a matter of when which is why he lets 4-man squads lead the advance and keeping his gear in the rear.
It could also be that Russia needs the war to justify a huge military expansion so a slow advance might also help keep that money flow going for the time being and outweighs any refinery losses.
The 3-letter agencies are not exactly letting anyone with half a brain to get to the levers of power which is why I think most on this blog knows where all this is headed.
I think you really have to consider that GM is right about Putin. Not a fan of nuclear exchange, but I agree with Feral Finster that the fact that any train is running in Ukraine is a testament to Russian incompetence. The border should have been sealed long ago, Ukrainian leadership taken out, and western support severed. These things are really all elementary.
It all depends on what the Russian objective is. Of course this has been covered many times in these blogs, but while Russia could do all of those things, if they had 'long ago' there would be a whole lot of NATO equipment that at the current time is in many small pieces and a much larger Ukrainian army. Europe appears to be collapsing economically and their push to increase the size of their militaries will push that process along even faster. The EU certainly seems to be self-destructing and with it NATO. That is a much larger prize than killing some leaders and blowing up some trains. It takes time, though. A quick strike would not have allowed for that.
if you have such difficulties to understand Putin just think how hard it is for Western leaders. And it is actually good. They cannot predict his actions and it probably is the last deterrent between us and nuclear war
What was covered by this big distraction? An empty ship, running across the ocean, trying to escape a whole armada of US Navy ships. A Russian sub is coming to the rescue, and some surface units too. I think the US chased an empty shell. Showed the US skills in piracy and got a nothing-burger.
True. I heard reports of a sub, but not of surface ships. Could be I just missed it. I don't think there is much a sub could do in that situation. Well, launch Armageddon, I suppose, but not over a rusty old tub!
And the EU gas storage levels were already 'at the lowest in 10-15 years' in the beginning of January, according to some articles.
Supposedly the low gas levels were 'worrying if there is a long batch of cold weather'
...and it has been very cold weather in the EU the last couple weeks. Like cold enough that there are photos of people skiing next to the Eiffel tower, air travelers stuck in Netherlands for days because of the snow, below minus 40 degrees Celsius measured in Finland, people stuck in their cars on the highway in Sweden and Denmark because of the amount of snow etc.
Yes, this is the coldest January in a long time, but that by itself wouldn't pose a problem in Europe. What does, pose a problem is that since the last really cold winter in Europe (2012 or so), the energy grid was weakened by stupid stuff like unicorn fart generators, windmills and solar panels. A lot of nukes closed and then there are sanctions. Bonus point for the tanker war, which is not making things much easier.
Never underestimate Europawns. Germanstan has already tested and patented a cow fart gas collection system and will be supplying gree... I mean brown energy throughout Germanistan within the decade.
In Finland the temperature is not an issue. Electricity prices are slightly higher that normal at this time but the base provision of electricity is through nuclear power after all (roughly 40-50% depending on the day) and topped up by wind and hydro. Heating rarely is done with gas here.
Not Trump, not Lindsey Graham, and not the Zionist billionaires cabal behind them, who actually run things. They are just laughing right now. But how can Putin strike them when he is working for the Zionist billionaires in Russia, not for Russia the country...
Yes, how stupid it is to think that the Washington Warmongers could be punished by blowing up some stuff inside Ukraine? As if they cared about the Ukro useful idiots…
Besides, it is very telling that there were no massive secondary explosions after the strikes. The reservoir was probably empty.
"Besides, it is very telling that there were no massive secondary explosions after the strikes."
Looks like you missed where Simp reported the afterglow in the sky, apparently the gas burning off.
When underground gas storage facilities catch fire they don't just blow up - there's no oxygen underground, just gas. What happens is when the gas vents to the surface through cracks caused by kinetic damage that gas catches on fire and there's a plume of fire, not an explosion.
A 20” search told me that the minimum storage pressure in underground reservoirs is 30 bar. If a reservoir at that pressure would have been breached, the gas jet blowing out of the holes and burning would likely reach hundreds (if not thousands!) of meters, like a freaking gigantic blowtorch! And it would burn out very quickly, as well. The long duration afterglow probably shows that the burning gas was the residual amount left inside the cavern at close to atmospheric pressure.
So effectively then, Putin and the Kremlin cabal would have known its state of depletion, and attacked it so it can't be used again, via Euro gas reserves being pumped in.
They didn't want mass civilian casualties from a "blowtorch" event - just the continued degradation of Ukraine's willingness to continue this unequal and ultimately pointless fight.
When Vladimir was asking me what I wanted for Christmas recently, at a private function in the Kremlin, I said "Please ask Santa to blow up the Brussels parliament when Ursula is making some address or other," and he winked and said "I'll see what we can arrange," but this is what he came up with instead, which on reflection I think was the more sensible strategy.
You do realize that Lvov and nearby regions directly use that gas from that storage? If rumors about falling pressure in the system in city true, then only residual amounts of gas will be at gas stoves, not storage. Soon.
I think that would only be true if there were an unimpeded route to the surface. If the gas had to force its way through fissures opened by the strike (ie, cracks, not a big hole) it would come out much more slowly. Still fast, but not necessarily big blowtorch fast. It also would be coming out in many places, not in a concentrated stream.
And if it is not a gusher type hole but instead is leaking from cracks in the dome seeping through a hundred feet or more of earth all the way up to the surface where it burns off?
The Washington warmongers can only be hurt economically. Even though that will also hurt the average man on the street in the Western bubble. The greater push against the US is an offensive against the dollars role in global finance being carried out by the Chinese Russians and the global majority. The Washington warmongers can look at all the zeros in their accounts, until one day those zeros actually represent the actual value of zero.
Destroying the gas storage is still effective as it also destroys the purpose of the facility, the capacity to store.
Wholly agree with this, except that with the current shale gas export capacity in the US, the destruction of this reservoir is positive for the US oligarchy in the short and medium term.
Yes, but we are still talking about the US dollar and an extremely strong chance of inflation and a fall in value of the currency. A short term win yes, but what happens to that wealth in the long term?
I tend to agree with you, I guess the most probable outcome of the end of the Gringo Empire will be an economic, financial and monetary implosion. But we cannot rule out the possibility that the King in Orange & his minions succeed in a kind of modern “Diocletian Reform” and are able to postpone the collapse for 50 or 100 years, by similar methods. I think there is a real possibility of this scenario happening as neither Russia nor China seem to be actively undermining the economic foundations of Gringostan. Actually, they seem to be accommodating passively rather than actively opposing it, especially when it comes to their backyards (Caucasus, SE and Central Asia, etc.)
"an extremely strong chance of inflation and a fall in value of the currency" Where ya bin?
Do you think the term "stacking" means piling up CheeZy Puffs at Walfart? Au, Ag tells you all you need to know about that there "chance of inflation" stuff. Oh and don't forget to "stack" mucho boxes of Pb if you figure out the first bit.
Get up to speed on that there "shale" mythology. Greetings from the depleted Baken and its ass cold here, let me add. We need our stinking gas and thank goodness it is still coming out of the kitchen sink faucet at least for now! We ain't got none for those cheese head euro clowns.
I’ve been studying peak oil and the shale thing since the early 10’s. The shale drillers have beaten all the peak oil doomer expectations. BUT, once the output decline starts in the big shale fields, it’s going to be a very steep dive…
I'm in the upper Midwest and I can confirm that a gallon of "regular gas" here has dropped from recent highs of $3.15/gal to about $2.17 gal.
This is a precipitous price drop and I can't really wrap my head around it. Can anyone give insight for such a drop? That's an easy savings of $300-500/month, or more, if you're commuting in rural Wyoming or parked in traffic in LA, NY, Miami or Chicago. Locally, prices can vary as much as $.30-.40/gal comparing more affluent suburbs to the more working class locales.
As I've posted before, I think that the US intends to keep Vz oil OFF the market and held in reserve for future development. AKA the long game.
It also assures price supports vs bringing more oil online. As a plastic injection molder told me years ago, plastics are made from the nasty orphan oil you'll find at the literal "bottom of the barrel". If we ride "Peak Oil" down, that Vz oil will come in very handy for providing feed stocks for making all the plastic products we depend on daily. Thanks for your attention to this matter...
Oil supply is up a little bit because OPEC has loosened constraints, and demand is down because, despite all the rosy talk, inflation is killing individual use and there's an ongoing de-industrialization in Europe.
Reducing demand for oil from the deepening actually existing US recession combined with the global oil glut from record US & global production in consecutive years 2024 & 2025 has driven down the price of fossil fuel energy.
"The Washington warmongers can look at all the zeros in their accounts, until one day those zeros actually represent the actual value of zero."
If you think the Washington warmongers rely on the continued value of fiat dollars I have several bridges to sell you. They'll be loaded to the gills in gold, silver, diamonds, land, and other things that will gain value as the dollar declines. China could have tanked the bond market twenty years ago but instead has been quietly and slowly divesting - because tanking it would have destroyed their foreign reserves. Killing the dollar is an exceptionally dicey game.
20 years is a long time to prepare for a much smoother transition. Especially when the institution that support the dollar have done such a wonderful job of destroying the trust that the Western financial system depends on. Also you underestimate the faith that bind majority of people to fiat. You may find, that as much as the noise is getting louder, it is only a minority that maintains possession of pet rocks. The vast majority of people are invested in paper and they just have so much faith in accumulating zeros on their bank ledger.
I see. You think these warlords and hardened profiteers are as naive as newborn babes. I'm talking about the actually wealthy decision-makers, not the factory workers and mid-level bureaucrats. The dollar would long ago have disappeared if its holders hadn't been working so hard to maintain it: Japan, the west Asian nobility, even China and Russia a few years ago. And of course the coercive effect of the giant US military. - that's what people trust.
Keep in mind that Chia does not issue a reserve currency and cannot issue a reserve currency without running current account deficits and thus killing its current business model (because without running current account deficits, nobody would have the reserve currency to use as reserves).
Right. That plan works for global hegemon wannabes, but not for peaceful commercial countries. One might say that is true of all fiat currency, since they are usually instituted in order to spend money a country doesn’t have waging war. China could oversee a return to the gold standard, however, and there are signs it might be doing that.
It is surprising your comment. As did you not think "Nuking" everything would affect civilians much more than hitting energy infrastructure?
That said it is always average people that suffer. The elites always find a way to escape hardship. It's like all the children of the Ukrainian oligarchs living their best lives in Europe, driving sports cars while the poor Ukrainians are sent to the meat grinder.
>As did you not think "Nuking" everything would affect civilians much more than hitting energy infrastructure?
Yes, the nuclear strikes that Putin needs to carry out will practically not affect any civilians.
Those strikes are:
1) Deep penetrating Kinzhal/Zirkon/Oreshnik with around 0.2 kt on them on the bunkers in downtown Kiev.
2) Kinzhal/Zirkon/Oreshniks bunker busters with 50 kt on each warhead/MIRV (so that large craters are excavated) on the border crossings with Poland and Romania, and then repeated such strikes so that they are permanently taken out and NATO cannot shovel weapons into Ukraine.
We are not talking megaton airbursts on cities, we're talking deep bunkers and small nukes away from cities.
Had Putin done that in 2022 hundreds of thousands of innocent people on both sides would be alive.
Had Putin carried out nuclear strikes in 2022, there probably would have been a nuclear response by an emotional irrational West. Yes, it could be said they wouldn't, but would it be advisable to test the resolve of the irrational? Nuclear strikes come with radiation fall out, how would Russia control what direction the wind blows? Also how would they control the consequences of the direction of the breeze?
GM somehow misses the point that Russia is up against an organization, countries, which reactions are completely unpredictable, unlogical, irrational, crazy , obsessed, never will accept defeat or retract and willing to sacrifice the whole world (similar like the Samson doctrine or the Russian nuclear doctrine).
My only hope is that the ruling elite repeat the same the Austrian painter did at the end. Unfortunately the western population cannot be saved
They didn't tell you that the "Austrian painter" moved to South America. Go check and see if he is still there...the FBI of all clowns had him pegged there well into the 50's if not the 60's. I kid you not, Do you also think that Jeffy Epstein, Mossad Orange's pedovore procurer also snuffed himself? Just curious.
"GM somehow misses the point that Russia is up against an organization, countries, which reactions are completely unpredictable, unlogical, irrational, crazy , obsessed, never will accept defeat or retract and willing to sacrifice the whole world"
That's what they would have us believe, but take a step back and it looks more like they're taking a calculated risk that has fully paid off so far. People keep calling Trump "TACO" - does that sound like someone who doesn't recognize risk and is irrational?
Of course everything about the man screams irrational, but someone is doing something right - if you accept that world dominion is an acceptable goal.
Who cares. It's US/EU proxy. They obviously don't want this proxy to lose, they've spent hundreds of billions to keep it afloat. Whole Warsaw Pact arsenal literally vanished, and these countries now trying to replace it and reeling from debt. West doesn't even have stocks of artillery shells/missiles anymore, they are literally became a joke
Beating Ukraine into bloody pulp is exactly what should be done and it's being done.
If gas facility really kaput, then it was hit against Europe too - they stored good chunk of their reserves there
This is Ukraine’s Nordstream moment (on the receiving side). Maybe the Russians should suggest that the Ukrainians destroyed it themselves with their Flamingoes ?
yes, but did it result in changes in the weather? perhaps spouting gas into the atmosphere is comparable to volcanic activity, which influences weather patterns world-wide. it might not be noticeable untill some time afterwards. the continuous bombings in the ME are bound to have an enormous environmental impact. it's absolutely horrendous.
Not even close. The amount of gas and material a volcano ejects -- at least ones which have the potential to influence world-wide weather patterns -- is orders of magnitude greater than what man has done.
The Duran and other channels are saying the site has been completely destroyed, with a loss of 50% of all reserves in the country = up to 15% of all EU strategic winter reserves gone.
And at a time when storage was at an estimated 58% capacity, an all-time low over previous years.
The mainstream media non-reaction to the economic impacts this will have downstream feels like ignoring a tide suddenly disappearing to the horizon.
I find the missile impressive, if that's your point, but if your point is that this attack will create market furor it simply hasn't. The market did end the day very slightly positive, but only as a minor blip on the screen. Of perhaps more interest is that the market is in what's called "backwardation," which is commodities talk for saying the current price for gas delivered next month is lower than the price today, meaning the market expects more gas, or less demand, next month than this month. Commodities traders stay on top of the news, so this price means that the missile strike is having no significant impact on gas supplies.
Frankly, I can't account for why, but them's the facts, and those are the reactions of the most knowledgeable people in the world on the subject.
Thankyou for the market insight, adds to the bucket of knowledge
The choice of target is the point, to create an economic shock aimed at NATO/EU as well as strategic.
An article from Reuters 2023 reported on the €800 Billion energy crisis cost to the EU over an 18 month period Sep 2021 - Feb 2023.
"BRUSSELS, Feb 13 (Reuters) - European countries' bill to shield households and companies from soaring energy costs has climbed to nearly 800 billion euros, researchers said on Monday, urging countries to be more targeted in their spending to tackle the energy crisis.
European Union countries have now earmarked or allocated 681 billion euros in energy crisis speding, while Britain allocated 103 billion euros and Norway 8.1 billon euros since September 2021, according to the analysis by think-tank Bruegel"
Although that includes the end period of covid support, it also includes the first Russian sanction shocks. A further 18 rounds of sanctions and inflation cost of living economic crisis likely have more than doubled that €800Bn in the 24 months since publication.
Its the social economic ripples beyond the city trading desks, that impact the ordinary people in heating eating and transport costs that it will eventually break upon
My point is that the choice of target did NOT create an economic shock. Even a successful strike created yawns. That’s what the market is saying, and again, these are the most knowledgeable people in the world on the subject. The high price of energy thanks to the sanctions, ironically, has had a very large impact. Strange that Europe is doing more to harm itself than Russia is doing, but that is very clear.
Or perhaps it isn’t so strange, since the US engineered the sanctions and high energy costs and is benefiting enormously from the European handicap. That was, if you’re wondering, explicitly set forth as a policy goal in the think tank piece on the subject Brian Berletic is always talking about.
A post I came across on Zerohedge translates a Russian Telegram blog with a very direct interesting commentary along the point you mention, to destroy the lynchpin of the US plan to control EU gas supplies.
(Translated)
"The Western Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities are not “energy” or “Ukrainian objects”. They are the foundation of the American plan to capture the European gas market. A key node of the “north-south” scheme, through which the US wanted to push its LNG into Europe and finally displace Russian pipeline gas.
25 billion cubic meters is not a reference figure, it’s almost the entire useful volume of Ukrainian storage facilities integrated into a system that has been honed for decades for Russian supplies. It’s a complex engineering node, without which the entire American “energy crusade” turns into a set of presentations and fantasies.
LNG comes from two sides – north and south. Next on the plan is to connect the terminals, gain access to the UGS and Baumgarten, lay pipes, declare this as “diversification” and sell gas to Europeans at three times the price. But they don’t want to build new pipes – it’s expensive. It’s much more convenient to ride the existing network and simply seize it from the previous owner.
That’s the whole strategy. Crude. Direct. Predatory.
And now about the “analysts” and bloggers.
Most of them are either clinically stupid or deliberately pretending not to understand what happened. They discuss “attacks on Ukraine”, “escalation” and “politics”, because admitting the reality means admitting that the American gas project has failed, not some abstract “energy”.
So the whining about “symbolism”, “inefficiency” and “nothing has changed” begins. This is a lie. Everything has changed. Without the UGS, the “north-south” corridor is dead. Without it, American LNG remains expensive, fragmented and unable to replace Russian gas in the necessary volumes.
So either a person doesn’t understand this – and then he’s just a useful idiot, or he understands – and then he’s an enemy. There’s no third option.
This is not an attack on Ukraine. This is an attack on the American scheme of capturing pipelines, markets and money. That’s why there’s so much hysteria, confusion and deliberate misunderstanding around it.
And yes – this is one of the most painful responses. Not loud, not media-driven, but truly adult: where it hurts, it’s expensive and you can’t really fix it.
Props to you S for getting the story out. This is wild.
It seems like these are the same type of slugs used in the last attack.
The apparent capability to destroy major underground energy storage facilities with a single launch is a clear message of strength especially given the US' clear desire for energy dominance.
In a way it's also a very aggressive attack on the US dollar given that decent chunk of the USD's value is explicitly tied to the energy trade. It reminds me of the old line from Dune, "He who can destroy a thing has the real control of it."
Except the Bene Gesserit are highly intelligent, skilled and plan very long-term. That's not something I would accuse Fonda Lyin, Callous Kallas or any of the others of. In fact calling them witches is an insult to witches! :-)
Well, the Emperor made the first move by placing the Atreides in Arrakas not to help them but to eliminate them, but I see your point. Things have taken on a rather strange and epic flavor recently haven't they?
I think I just saw the Caesar of the Third Rome hurl the thunderbolts of Zeus a thousand miles from the Pontic steppes, whilst I was drinking coffee in my pajamas.
The rise of the digital demi-God has intersected neatly with the rise of the Golden God-Emperor of the West, while the Red Emperor of the East holds in his own hands all the new rare-earth spice.
I'm just waiting for the Kwisatz Haderach to turn up. If the Zionist find a Red Heifer and establish the third temple we might all be screwed.
Plot twist !
A.I. is the Moshiach / Mahdi / Anti-Christ ! (and also we're all screwed).
Good points. When we compare the warring parties we see cool, calm and meticulous one one side. On the other side there is a lot of action, but everywhere it smacks of desperation. It seems the US is in an untenable fiscal position. The protection racket doesn't seem to be pulling in too much cash thus far. Now the thick heads have been sent to crack some skulls. What are the chances of success? Low, they left their run too late. The decay has eaten away their foundations. The problems are structural. Violence and intimidation are the only tools left in the box. Don't let the door hit you on the arse on the way out.
Systematic is what Israel and the US are doing in the Middle East and to Russia and China globally.
The only "systematic" thing Putin is doing is the destruction of Russian deterrence and standing in the world.
A proper systematic response would be to start eliminating the US billionaires. One by one. Or more than one at a time -- a triple-digit number of them had gathered to celebrate New Year on a Caribbean island, an opportunity that Putin naturally missed. This will both enforce deterrence against the people who matter and punish those truly responsible for the war on Russia.
But in the Putinist mind there are two categories of people -- those who matter and those who don't. Billionaires, no matter what passports they hold, are in the first category, and they are sacred. Ordinary people, regardless of whether they are Russian or not, do not matter, and their deaths are of no concern to Putin, even though it is supposedly his duty to protect them.
Thus the absurd spectacle of the US striking Russia, now no longer even behind the Ukrainian proxy's back, and Putin retaliating against the Ukrainian proxy, while he begs for a deal that will make his oligarch masters inside Russia happy,
No, no. More 500,000,000,000. Everyone knows he is a greedy crook - I mean like he is growing richer every day whilst his people go starving and Russia's infrastructure and economy breaks down!
Gee dude. How lucky you are to see inside the Putinist mind. You left out the part bout how Putin at the beginning of his "reign" buckled down on Russia's billionaires and not only. America's and EUs billionaires are their problem. Or for someone that doesn't care bout ordinary people worked so hard and so well to upgrade their lives and life spans. And grow their bank accounts. Compare that to ANY western state in the same timespan. As for systematic applied you need to rethink the definition of systematic as applied to the US actions. The only thing they do systematically is break laws destabiluze states and kill people.
All to say your comments come across as helluva lot of coping.
>worked so hard and so well to upgrade their lives and life spans. And grow their bank accounts.
He is just a Russian FDR, minus the courage to come out and speak directly to the public in critical situations.
FDR's goal was to save capitalism by making some concessions to the masses, otherwise there was a real danger of a communist revolution. And he succeeded, with the implicit long term understanding that when the conditions are right again the concessions will be withdrawn. Which is the story of the last 50 years.
Putin was installed after Yeltsin had to bring in the Americans to fix the election in 1996 for him, otherwise he would have lost to the communists, but things only got worse after that, and something had to be done in order to preserve the newly installed oligarchic system. The price for its preservation was making some concessions and doing a little bit of redistribution. But the core of the system remained in place -- Russia was systematically robbed of its real wealth in favor of the West and most of the proceeds from the percentage it got for it went into the pockets of Russian oligarchs. That is how it is to this very day. They haven't even blocked urainium and titanium exports to the US, FFS...
>The only thing they do systematically is break laws destabiluze states and kill people.
Dude the man gives 4 hour press conferences where anyone can and does call in. Sit down. The fact that he doesn't tweet or blather to the press 6 times a day is a pro not a con. Like any good leader he knows how to delegate. And has the very best people to do so. Cause you know that's how meritocracy works unlike nepotism or failing upwards as we see in the US and EU. When he speaks people listen. Attentively. When Trump speaks people larf and or shake their heads. When NATO or EU speak people do a slow boil. Spot the difference?
Sometimes you really need a larf button. And this is one of those times. There has been nothing effective bout Zelensky. In war or in govt. Unless you count his little Starvation Army beggar act. Complete with tin cup. Ignorance I can forgive but wilful ignorance not. Ciao ciao.
The Gas storage sites was obvious targets but also in a way terminal for Ukraine. Without stored gas I suspect they have to cave in pretty soon.
However, exactly how, is the storaged destroyed? Shouldnt the field blow up in a giant underground explosion? Could be that the gas is burning through 36 holes in the earth.
Very interesting times with these new weapons. Biblical pictures and movies.
I hope we will not sink that low. Poor people in Ukraine will now suffer in cold and darkness. This War is one of the most costly and hasnt achieved anything good.
The partition of Ukraine eastern regions, russian-speaking, should have been done by reasonable leaders. To force out their own citizens, such as Porochenko made it vivid, is a crime against humanity. And to prolong the inevitably end is even a bigger crime. Whatever happens in the end one side has lost men for nothing. And is there any winners here after four long years?
For an explosion, you need oxygen in a specific ratio to the gas. I'm pretty sure they try not to let oxygen into storage areas. Skyglow as gas burns off at the surface makes perfect sense.
>Without stored gas I suspect they have to cave in pretty soon.
Spoiler alert -- they won't
Because official leadership and the people who profit from the war inside Ukraine will not be in any way affected by this. They are not even in Ukraine most of the time.
The only way to force the Ukrainians to cave in is to start taking out the political, military and economic elite. Make it 100% deadly to be in those positions, and nobody will be willing to be in them.
Otherwise the senseless slaughter will continue.
Right now in both DC and on Bankova they are laughing at Putin's impotence.
This ”take out the leaders” is something I advocated long time ago. Almost everyone here said that this will make Zelensky a martyr, it will backfire or that he is just a puppet that makes so many mistakes that Russia will win on walk-over.
The first killing in a War should always be the Leaders who start the War. If it appear that the enemy has organized their leadership again - do it once more.
Some guy in US just did that (although unclear if it has succeded to subdue V)
They tried to take out Putin (who had promised Naftali Bennet not to kill Zelensky?!) so many cried about a response from Russia. Puncturing the Gas depot, if it was a success we will soon know, makes irreparable damage to Ukraine and their people. If Dniepropetrovsk and other stay black-outed for a week without possibility to heat buildings, waterpipes will freeze, sewage pile up and unhabitable conditions arise.
So it shouldnt be too difficult to hunt the central leadership. Then UK/EU also have problem to know who to snake-talk with.
The really important news: Belgorod. Half a million without power and heat.
"Oreshnik" in Lviv and a blackout in Kyiv - that's all well and good. But for any Russian right now, the most important news isn't coming from Ukraine, but from the Belgorod region. There, after overnight strikes in six municipalities, 556,000 people are without power, the same number without heat, and 200,000 without water...
Belgorod was preparing for this. I saw the authorities holding meetings and training sessions. They were practicing three winter scenarios - bad, very bad, and catastrophic. They've thought of everything - from those who bypass elevators after the power goes out to prevent people from freezing inside, to those who tear down billboard advertisements with evacuation instructions underneath. For now, thank God, the advertisements are still in place.
"We've entered a period that has become natural for us," the head of the region told his subordinates in the fall. "A catastrophe hasn't happened, but we need to prepare for the worst." If they want a political effect, they'll wait for frost and then strike. This will lead to tension among people. So we're sleeping with our eyes open."
Generators were brought to the region from across the country, supplying social facilities and the private sector. Governors, volunteers, and foundations helped. Some transported backup power in Gazelles, others in convoys of trucks, like the Volodya Solovyov Foundation. Warming stations were set up in the city...
And the enemy methodically knocked out the power grid, including the networks through which electricity can be transferred from another region.
"The backup capacity that we've been installing together over the past few months is being connected. Restoration work is underway where it can be restored. The situation is extremely difficult. But I hope we can get through it," the governor wrote today.
Agree. Should never happened if Kreml was resolute enough to end the War. And I have always said that time is not on Russias side because the strain goes both ways. Of course the situation is much, much worse in Ukraine and people can endure horrific for years. Ask Germans, Japanese and Koreans…
The problem with long wars is that the sacrifices made and suffering endured doesnt match the outcome. One side will win, the other lose. If they negoiate a ”peace” no one has won and people would ask: wtf did we do this for?
I dont know slavic people, if they are indifferent to killing of familymembers, or if they are like me; live and let live and every dead soldier is a tragedy with consequnces for decades. The Bandera-cult and deep hatred of Russians is evidence of just that tragedy back in 1930-1950.
You've captured my thoughts exactly. Putin and his cronies, who have never lost a family member, are calling this a protracted war of attrition? As the Korean proverb goes, "Old water tastes bitter," is this escalating into a Russian-style war? As GM pointed out, we needed to use every possible means—assassination of the ultra-wealthy, removal of war leaders, and removal of journalists spreading disinformation—to bring this war to a swift end. This isn't just a play on words. We need to strengthen the very nature of the war, not simply change the name, to bring our enemies to their senses and demonstrate deterrence. If President Putin truly cares about Russia, he must do so before it's too late.
> Some guy in US just did that (although unclear if it has succeded to subdue V)
I suppose the success will depend on to what extent ordinary people are behind Chavismo. If they are then no amount of decapitation will solve the problem completely, as shown by Hamas and Hezbolla.
Are you sure about Hamas and Hizbollah? They may have followers and actives but very unclear if they have a functioning leadership. Israel kills them all.
Venezuela is sanctioned and US will eventually bomb them like Iraq if not complying to US will but you are right in that it is a balance. What would people long for more? Wealth and food on the table or freedom from imperialists?
The long-term success will depend on whether Venezuela ever exports oil and minerals to the people Trump says shouldn't get them. That was the real point of the exercise, and the current president seems, at least, to be submitting despite the rhetoric. For the time being the operation was a complete success. It also formed a perfect opportunity to tell Russia, China, and all their friends that the US will control the region with absolute impunity and no regard whatever for liberty or life. Not likely either Russia or China will have anything to say about that any time soon.
For me, retaliation would be hitting the EU propaganda train that carries western leaders to Kiev to do a bump coke every few months.
Russia keep saying they will strike at foreign troops, and if on the ground of Ukraine they are legit targets. To me, its a perfect opportunity. Do we really think the UK will go rabid if Starmer with a 15% approval rating is killed in a strike on that train?
Purely kinetic penetrators are of very limited use because all they can carry is the energy in the missile's propellant minus what was lost on the way, which is at least half.
So five-ten tons of explosives maximum combined for all the penetrators. Which is not all that much.
Either you put nukes on these things, or you take out a very specific high-value personnel target, or this is just another useless stunt.
It doesn't matter what they can do to an underground gas storage becayse NOBODY CARES ABOUT AN UNDERGROUND STORAGE.
A meaningful response would have been to send an SSGN to take out the hundreds of US billionaires that were gathered on St. Barth for New Year. That would force people to take notice and cool off some enthusiasm for further aggression towards Russia.
But he didn't do that.
And can't do that because everything he worked for for a quarter of a century was the interests and the sanctity of billionaires.
Sometimes you do have a certain entertainment value, but today you are becoming boring in the extreme with your vivid fantasies of nuclear attacks and killing billionaires.
Always try to remember the Eleven God's Commandments, specially the last, but most important of all.
Thou shallst not become the pain in the arse of your neighbours.
Dima, at Military Summary channel now reports that the gas storage wasn't even hit, but that a nearby airfield was, perhaps to hit F-16s. That might explain the gas market's total non-response to the supposed elimination of European gas. Possible Simplicius got the wrong info this time.
I agree, but even fewer people care about the F-16s, and I was curious about the failure of the market to reflect a hit supposedly on a major gas storage facility. The Putin is always right crew like to think Russia is inflicting massive economic damage on Europe; it didn't happen in this case at least. It was another empty gesture.
I differ. It is incomprehensible that we havent seen any BDA from the first strike with Oreshnik, in Dniepropetrovsk. Is the facility burnt out or not?
I think Russia is using Oreshnik sparingly and cunning. It could be that the Gas depot is a ”test” of penetration (they built so they know every detail), a message to West and Ukraine and at the same time inside the strategy of energy depleting for Ukraine.
The five-ton equivalent is probably correct but here we have 4000-6000 degree, not molten, arrows at tremendous speed slicing through earth, much like APDS on armour. Is it enough with 100m or 200m to puncture the depot? I dont know but on the video you can see the 6x6 penetrators coming in at an angle, thus slicing through pipes also.
The silence in media in my country is deafening. It tells me something has happened.
For the record, Russians and everyone else in the Orthodox world are off from work and school until January 12. Not a time for launching ground assaults! 😊 Plus, very cold in Ukraine and first real snows of the season happened this week.
I think the big picture trajectory of the war continues on the path forecast or signalled by many in Russia, which is a long drawn out war, with ebbs and flows of course, that in the end will result in a thorough demilitarization and destruction of the Ukrainian state, as well as sustained economic and political decline in the West.
For Russia and russians, it certainly is. For Putin, it is clearly not existential, because he is not willing to do what's necessary to actually give consequences to those that are attacking Russia and russians.
And I don't even mean attacking NATO countries directly or start WW3, but at least send proper messages to them by killing their puppets in Ukraine, arming countries / groups that are anti-west, stop trade completely with USA and vassals, end diplomacy with USA and vassals and especially this "peace settlement" in Ukraine, which is quite embarassing for Putin.. An existential threat means you will do what needs to be done to survive. Putin is not willing to do that and Russia and russians continue to be attacked every day, which means the current "restraint" is sending the message to the west that they can continue escalations and provocations, without consequences.
I mean Putin himself is targeted and his response is targeting what is targeted on daily basis in the SMO anyway, plus Putin is still talking about "negotiations" with USA....That is a weak response that shows Putin does not consider the situation existential for Russia.
“Strange lights” and cities go dark while supersonics are flying unchallenged. And these weapons are not even nuclear. This is really something to think about for NATO before they step into this war with full force. And Krivoy Rog is somehow always getting it.
I recall seeing him in Western Ukraine many years ago. The chicks at the local disco were making fun of him, telling him: "You ugly and your mamma is dressing you funny..."
Disappointed that a man of your cosmopolitan character and intellect spent time in local discos in the Hicksville of western Ukraine with a person, the high point of whose life was playing a piano with his dick.
All meteorological stations in Ukraine still work. So, there are no cities going dark. Russia is unable to destroy Ukro energy network, probably unwilling due to the interests of various oligarchs.
In big cities you cannot survive more then 3 days without electricity.
If that is true, Kiev should be empty in a week.
We see no refugee columns on the Ukro roads.
However, it is possible that the Ukrainians would remain in the cold flats. They are ready to withstand anything. They are in war with Russia and they like it. That is purpose of their lives, it is like ISIS.
When the government payed milita called ANTIFA destroyed an important electricity hup in Berlin (3rd of Jannuary), we found out why. In Germany the lights went out because all the technical equipment (generators!) of the THW is in Ukraine. In Germany elderly and disabled people are freezing because of Putin! (You could argue that this moral downfall has something to do with left-wing politics, not Putin ...).
Important business locations and homes with enough cash on hand can operate using their own generators and possibly battery backups. As long as fuel is not rationed they can fill up a can daily and they are in business.
‼️Update: Russia confirms the Oreshnik strike was a retaliation for the attack on Putin's residence:
Full statement by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the response to the attack by Kiev on Putin’s residence:
“Tonight, in response to the terrorist attack carried out by the Kiev regime against the residence of the President of the Russian Federation in the Novgorod Region, undertaken on the night of December 29, 2025, the Armed Forces of Russia delivered a massive strike using high-precision long-range weapons based on land and sea platforms, including the medium-range mobile ground-based missile system ‘Oreshnik’, as well as strike unmanned aerial vehicles, against critically important facilities on the territory of Ukraine.
The objectives of the strike have been achieved. Facilities involved in the production of unmanned aerial vehicles that were used during the terrorist attack, as well as elements of the energy infrastructure that ensure the operation of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, have been hit.
Any terrorist actions by the criminal Ukrainian regime will continue to be met with a response.”
Thank you Simplicius for yet another superb update.
Those has storage facilities were 400m below ground. This was an amazing strike and demonstration of Russia's superiority in weapons systems. The Pentagon must be absolutely freaking out right now.
This storage was maybe empty.
The National Socialists believe not having a gas reserve makes them decommied?
well they all are crying about the de-communization all the time. Russian armed forces are just there to help
Sometimes when I consider the Banderan Kapo Zelenski's and Syrski's decisions I think they might be Russian agents decommieing the Ukraine.
Is empty you mean...
What indication do you have that the storage was empty? It is critical to surviving the winter intact and winter is just starting. Europe includes it in its assessment of total storage available in all of Europe.
Maybe it was empty, maybe it was not empty.
Anyway,, there are no news about the problems EU might have with gas because of this.
no, you're wrong. Didn't you hear DJT tell the world that he's not finished with Putin yet, "he's killed a lot of people." He has the gall to say such a thing when he is the Godfather of the Gaza genocide, of which he is so darned proud -- he brought peace there, ya know? Of course, he may not consider that the Palestinians are actually people. They definitely stand between him and Las Vegas East, where everything is gilded. As for more, DJT is already in a world of trouble as most of the US does NOT support his damned wars passing as "peaceful transitions to democracy." (Hearing Starmer say that about Venezuela and the US kidnapping and invasion and contrasting that with Russia defending vital national security interests with its invasion of Ukraine -- really astoundingly pitiful.)
DJT was the one who started sending lethal weapons yo Ukraine during his 1st term. The only reason anyone would do that is to start war with Russia. Accusing Russia of SELF-defense by those who CHOSE to attack it UNPROVOKED and with zero threat to themselves is rich.
Donny and Kier are puppets. They are very obedient puppets of bankers and major war profiteers.
Trump is a hypocrite. So what? The missiles fly all the same.
Some missiles, like people, are more equal than others.
Nah... remember we got those super-hypersonic missiles laying around in Trump's mind.
Do we know if it successfully obliterated the targets? If so that’s gotta be quite a demonstration.
Undoubtedly the storage is broken down into compartments. If by obliterated, do you mean the entirety of it was destroyed with nothing left intact? Do you mean a very large part of it was destroyed with what content remains available only with inefficient work arounds that will last for only a short time? Do you mean all the contents were lost but with repairs it can be refilled at some point in the distant future if and when Ukraine has spare nat gas to do so?
I know nothing about the problem but I would guess that doing major construction to rebuild something underground previously filled with nat gas harboring an uncertain amount still remaining, in below freezing temperatures with everything covered in snow might be an especially daunting task.
Below about 2.5 meters it is not freezing. It is quite warm.
The kinetic pods from a chestnut strike are heavy, dense and burn very hot. Imagine throwing a stone into a pond and watching the ripples. That is what the shock waves do below the surface.
By below freezing I was referring to outside conditions where much of the repair work will have to bone. Any chamber open to the outside as a result of damage will also be cold. If nothing else, that requires workers to wear cumbersome cold weather gear while doing what it is that has to be done there.
And you are correct. It is the shock wave radiating through surrounding surfaces causing them to be weakened and made crumbly is a very serious after effect of hyper sonic strikes. The Oreshnik seems designed to maximize that.
Just bulldoze the rubble.
Has anyone got a line on what kind of alloy the kinetic pods are made of?
I just posted below, speculating that this was launched from a mobile platform, much closer than 1800 km. The published range, time, and speed numbers aren't working out in my ballistic-missle calculator. Oreshnik is more effective the closer it is launched to the target because 1) the re-entry angle is closer to vertical, so less drag loss and 2) less energy spent in horizontal travel means more kinetic energy in the vertical.
That's true, it's interesting how the first strike in 2024 on Yuzhmash in Dnipro, which is much closer, the "rods" were almost vertical. In today's strikes on Lvov (much farther) the "rods" were at nearly a 45 degree angle.
Oh- if it was 45 degrees then it might have been launched from the fixed test site 1600-1800 km away, which blows my theory.
Here's the 2024 strike on Dnipro: https://i.imgur.com/XcKrIWV.png
Here's today's strike on Lvov: https://i.imgur.com/0STrj5l.png
Ok, that's about 60 degrees from horizontal, from that camera's POV. It can be less than that, but not greater. In order to figure out whether this was mobile or not we'll need better numbers on some combination of the range, time of flight, re-entry angle, apogee, or velocity. Any two will do. It took days-weeks to get to so-so trajectory numbers on the first Oreshnik.
https://forrestbishop.substack.com/p/back-engineering-oreshnik-second
It looks that the launch from Kapustin Yat has been announced as a non nuclear, not aimed at NATO/US targets outside UA to the US over an hour in advance - sensible move -, and Kiev was informed at the time of the launch - 15 minutes or so before impact. As to the angle, it is hard to say as it depends on camera position and angle too. From the least inclination, I would guess 60-75° rather than 45. As the Oreshnik as well as the single warheads may be navigable even close to impact, every angle above 30° is possible.
I dunno. The Oreshnik has entered combat readiness (and is in Belarus too). Why would they only launch from the test site as it well past the testing phase?
depth from the enemy, that would be my guess. I mean, of course, NATO.
Because the difference between launching from a known test site (pre-announced, too) or from some random spot in a forest (announced or not) is that the latter is "Push the Red Button, we have missile inbound" stuff...
*Many* "rain of nukes" scenarios start with a single missile launch....
It's a GM wet dream
Actually if you are serious, you do it in this case precisely from somewhere unannounced.
You want to push their red lines.
A single missile should not result in immediate total launch, much less a single missile the trajectory of which clearly goes towards Poland and not towards North America.
Right now Russian early warning systems are completely compromised because shit is flying all over the western quarter of the country 24/7. Normally that is supposed be absolutely impermissible and ended immediately by the total physical annihilation of the source of it, i.e. Europe.
So make them have to make the same decision.
Of course, one might also ask if Oreshnik actually follows a strictly ballistic trajectory. Seems to me it doesn't have to - even if it initially followed such a trajectory, it's final approach to the target might be subject to parameters given its MIRVs.
I noticed some folks posting that this one only had 6 projectiles instead of the 36 or so the first one had. I think I can only see 6 "bolts" in the videos, but I do hear more strikes - so maybe the others were just out of shot of the video cameras?
Perhaps there are alternative payloads---the Yuzhmash strike seemed to use one set of a different kind than the others, probably for testing. So maybe they tested something different this time. Also for testing.
Each bolt could easily contain 6 arrows to cover 400x400m or so.
First oreshnik was 6x6 configuration, so here we have the case of either tighter cluster for each 'silo', or they put something single(heavier) instead of 6 warheads.
On different videos, I counted 14+ impacts, up to 10 visible.
Might be secondary explosions.
I thought the first one have 3 MIRVs and 27 kinetic pods.
point being that Putin is confirming that by stating "...the medium-range MOBILE ground-based missile system ‘Oreshnik’". If true, then the possibility of salvos of mobile bunker-busting Oreshniks launched from a few hundred km away has just been demonstrated.
Excellent observation. Makes sense.
You can't use ballistic calculator to a missile, capable of burning and changing directions on most of it flightpath.
Great catch.
If I understand correctly, the green dwarf, his cabinet and government, the elected officials, the clown gang aren't even worth wasting a single nut on. The garden gnomes aren't either, but it's their interests that have been destroyed.
Lost shekels hurts the puppet masters more than worthless lost NAZI lives.
Springtime comes early to NAZI Llov as the HaZel shrubs pollinate the snowy wasteland. A marvellous sight to behold indeed. God bless Mother Russia and all her people.
To quote Don Maclean
"They would not listen, they did not know how. Perhaps they'll listen now."
Bye bye Mr American....pie, if you'll pardon the sarcasm.
Thank you yet again, Simplicious for your exceptional journalism. We are all in your debt.
Cow pie, maybe.
Stop with the use of Nazi as a slut. Break your Jew programming
This is a Jew war.
You don't think Jews can be Nazis? Gvir, Smotrich? Let alone all the German Jews who joined the SS?
Dhdh there is not the brightest bulb in the neon sign. He refuses to get it and anyway it's too late and too expensive for him to get his Onkel Adolf tattoo removed. His reading skills are not up to it so here's the vid version for him...not that I imagine he'll ever figure out how much BS he has swalloweed with that NAZI shit of his.
Trying to explain to him one more time the Onkel Adolf juice bankster gig but I don't suppose he'll ever get beyond his programming.
Antony Sutton - The Best Enemy Money Can Buy
https://archive.org/details/pdfy-Iqz3ytYcb3wWYJ0c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMXwgH2uvxI
Hey Martillo - are you some sort of brownoid ?
Read epic by Leon degrelle.
Go away already. You are a waste of your own time. Scram!
No, zionists aren't Jews, they are antisemites who defile a mere sky-god superstition.
Here we go again Jew squash trying to put up guard rails to protect his tribe via false distinctions.
That is just silly. Zionism would not exist without Jews and vice versa.
German National socialists ?
Just call a Jew what it is: A genocidal chicken swinging sin merchant.
It’s an insult to ‘Nazis’ to compare them to genocidal chicken swingers like smotrich Netanyahu etc.
Antony Sutton - The Best Enemy Money Can Buy
https://archive.org/details/pdfy-Iqz3ytYcb3wWYJ0c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMXwgH2uvxI
simple minded brownoid fools like martillo sure like this nonsense.
I don’t get it. It seems to me like those targets, drone factories, etc, should’ve been hit regardless of any Ukrainian attacks on Putin’s residence, as part and parcel of the dismantling of Ukrainian resistance. To me this doesn’t do the job of retaliating for misbehaviour.
Yes. But the logical targets are all in Europe and the USA, and Mr Putin (and his wiser counsellors) are still unwilling to hit those.
hold your horses
we are still alive today thanks to cold heads in Russia and China
All the Russians have to do to win is not lose; the Septics and their lackeys don't have that luxury, hence the provocations everywhere else. The Russians ought to keep the SMO going, that'll infuriate all those short-arses in Caesar's entourage. ;O)
Good work again Simplicius!
A question: The exact coordinates are 49°21'37.7"N 23°54'16.2"E
for the building complex in your report. The area is about 400x1000 meter, but isnt it plausible that the gas stored is not accessed right under the buildings?
If you move north into the woods you have small roads and three areas with small buildings and hundreds of ventholes(?). I think the main hit was int his wooded area to penetrate the storage below and one of the Oreshnik loads flattened the main building area.
(The Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground gas storage (UGS) facility is the largest natural gas depot in Europe, with a total capacity of 17 billion cubic meters. It is located in the Stryi district of Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, approximately 60 km south of Lviv city.)
Some sources says the deposits are 400-2000 meter beneath…
I doubt the arrows can go so deep. But as the Russians has said before, Oreshnik causes a earthquake like damage in the ground, probably causing cracks in those pipes drilled down.
"Update: Russia confirms the Oreshnik strike was a retaliation for the attack on Putin's residence . . . ."
The word out is that the US teed-up on Putin's location off the location of Putin's cellphone used in a call with US President Donald Trump, and Putin out-smarted Trump. Putin had the GPS signal originate in Putin's residence, someplace where Putin was not. Smart, if true.
It's all nonsense.
Even Ukraine bowed out on taking responsibility for this cheap shot. Ukraine knew responsibility would still be dropped on their heads by both the US and Russia -- either way, any way, every way.
The Ukrainians can't tie their own shoelaces without US GPS and satellite imaging technology. But even the Ukrainians know a direct decapitation strike, like the one allegedly carried out on Putin, while he was "home," carried huge risks and even larger consequences, especially if the attack failed. Which, the narrative said, it did.
And here we are again with Russia. True, real, retaliation would have been Russia dropping loaded Oreshniks (not another batch of Oreshniks loaded with blanks) and dropping them on each UK and European capital.
But that will never happen.
do you have a death wish? Some of us have children, you know. We don´t want them to burn in nuclear strikes. Putin is exremely cautious for me, and you, and everybody´s sake
Pretty sure it's not _my_ welfare he's worried about. But he's hardly alone in that regard.
Since it didn't affect anyone of influence and authority in Ukraine or the West, all this does is show Russian lack of decisiveness and resolution.
It's like punching a wall. All that shows is that you're afraid to punch your target.
Can't deny many people in the UK were hoping to see Starver's replacement.
Yup. Nobody cares what the people want. You think a slaveowner takes an opinion poll of his field hands?
Did you just say we are the 'slaves of Putin', Feral?
Well, THAT'S a promotion of sorts from "Putin-apologist", I guess.
No. I was talking about public opinion in general and the West and its puppets in particular.
Hmm.....the people without nat gas in Lvov, the relatively safe city close to the border with Poland might think it is decisive. It is them and Poland that the Russians want to impress not you.
Nobody cares what either poles or galicians think.
Both the Russians and the Ukrainians care very much what the Poles think. I grant that you don't care.
Why? Who takes an opinion poll of peons and serfs?
The Polish government....... who are a heavy hitter in both the E.U. and NATO plans in regard to Ukraine.
To understand the importance of repetition in propaganda, consider these key points:
1. Reinforces messages: Repetition helps embed ideas in the audience's mind.
2. Increases familiarity: Familiarity breeds acceptance and trust in the message.
3. Shapes perceptions: Repeated messages can influence how people perceive reality.
4. Simplifies complex ideas: Repetition distills complicated concepts into digestible forms.
5. Creates emotional resonance: Repeated phrases can evoke strong emotional responses.
6. Builds brand loyalty: Consistent messaging fosters a sense of identity and allegiance.
Seems like the video has been taken in the outskirts from Lvov and the possible target was the airfield(?).
https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2009798275721826767?s=20
This gets stranger and stranger….
If the above post is correct the videographer filmed at southwest and they presume that it was bu kers on the airfield that was Haxelnutted. Indeed, there are bunkers to the south of the strip and one can see huge shadows where the entrance is.
But.
If the filmin person was standing only 1,3 kilometer from the impact we should have heard something and seen trembling. Nothing of it.
On NASA Firemaps there are two ”fires” further south and southwest of Lvov. And very near the location of the on-ground-facilities for the gas storage. But those three fires(bolts) are located kilometers to the west but in a clear line of the footage.
Either do the Russian know where the deposit is thin or where most damage can be done so they penetrated it a long way from the official site.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:tsd-daily;d:7days;@23.818,49.460,12.815z
I'm first! :D
Yay! Take a bow.
Ha!
Have you seen the Beavis and Butthead show where Butthead compliments Beavis and says to him "take a bow", and then smacks him in the groin?
Short version of it. I always think of this when I see/hear "Take a bow".
LOL
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1040757187926719
Oh veh but the first shall be last and the last a no show......
Thanks for a quick analysis!
With any luck a few NATO bunkers were demolished as well.
Highly dubious,
There were reports people felt an earthquake in Lvov, but that is unverified, and highly doubtful -- it would mean at least one of the MIRVs carried a nuke.
The kinetic penetrators themselves could have set the gas storage on fire, but not much more than that. And the spread on the video was not all that large, so it looks like it was the gas storage alone that was targeted.
When you strike underground gas storage caverns, the structure will collapse onto itself - hence the reported earthquakes.
Let the defeat of NATO be so decisive that their lying can't cover it up.
Was NATO hit here? No.
Putin showed himself to be a coward again
Ukraine is NATO at the moment.
NATO equipped them, trained them and is delivering the planning and ISR.
And they fail miserably.
With your philosophy of deterrence and acting, we'd be not typing shit here anymore.
Start thinking things true and quit be emotional like a girl.
Ukraine is not NATO, any more than Vietnam was the Soviet Union.
Not everything what makes no sense is a good comparison.
Fundamentally different and imcomparable in any way possible.
So how?
well Vietnam kind of was, partially, not at that level as Ukraine is now a spearhead of NATO force. And Vietnam defeated the US
How was Vietnam the Soviet Union?
This is where I think you’re wrong. Escalation (or rather, proper retaliation) will not automatically lead to WW3, because Europe is a paper tiger that is nothing without daddy America. If anything, it will make people in Europe realize that this could get real real soon and that maybe they shouldn’t sacrifice their security just to deny the ethnic Russians in the Donbass the right to not be discriminated against. Luke warm responses only embolden the Western leaders to escalate further. Sometimes you need escalation to deescalate.
Also, if the war is with NATO, don’t you have to beat …idk… NATO? Kinda weird to not fight your actual opponent.
Lastly, Ukraine is only the beginning, they will use Poland, the Baltics, Stans, Georgia, etc, so the only solution is to defeat them and the only way to do that is calling their bluff. America is not going to sacrifice New York for Helsinki, believe me.
Seems like you're in one of your moods again.
Only so much one can do when programmed for blathering.
GM's comments regarding the previous article were more balanced.
GM is most likely Russian and very well educated. That makes his reasoning about the USSR the best on this thread. But yes unfortunately many of very knowledgeable and brilliant Russian pro-USSR folks are extremely anti-Putin. I can understand them. For them he still represents the liberal capitalism that has tried to destroy our country, but they are missing a lot of factors and ignore a lot of information here. And I am also afraid that they are under the spell of NATO propaganda without knowing it
I agree and thank you for the information. Russia, in my humble opinion, and the world are fortunate to have Putin as the only sane and balanced leader in all of Europe. I think the man does a masterful job walking an extremely perilous geopolitical tightrope. Ask the average Russian if they are better off today than when Putin entered office, and the answer is a resounding yes. Do you think Russian temperament accounts for this paradox among some of the Russian elite? After all, from what I read, Putin enjoys the type of widespread support in Russia that the Western elite would do almost anything to have. I mean, Macron at 11%, Starmer at 19%, and Mertz catching up. The only way the European elite wins elections is by declaring unfavorable results null and void (see Romania).
I hope you have a moment to respond.
You are howling for total war...obviously not too much left to live for. Either you are a snotty-nosed, know-it all kid or you are hobbling around on your last legs. Lighten up and let Mother Russia do it her way. Mother knows best you cheeky little squirt slash old fart.
Are these not targets that should’ve been hit in the normal course of the conduct of the war? They don’t seem to have any value to have retaliatory effect.
If they really wiped that storage facility, then it's not just fatal blow to Ukraine (imagine losing both electricity AND gas during winter), but this storage facility was used by Europe too.
You are totally right.
Putin is a deeply scared old man.
Do they have anybody younger there?
cope sarah, cope harder...
If Mr Putin is a "coward", he is cowardly on your behalf and mine, and that of all human beings everywhere.
The correct words are "prudent" and "humane".
Which would all be signs of great statesmanship, and I do think he is a great statesman, if your opponent played by the same rules. If they play dirty, you either match them or you’ll lose, it’s that simple.
So why is Mr Putin winning?
Is he? Are Brits and Americans dying or are Russians and ethnic Russians? Winning would be convincing Mexico or Scotland that the US or England was about to invade and supporting them with Oreshkins to fire into Washington/London. After they burn up all Ukrainians, they’ll find other dupes to fight their war for them. The war is with NATO, not Ukraine.
Russia is defeating NATO - the Ukraine is just a stalking-horse. That is one of the main reasons why the SMO has lasted so long. Russia has allowed, even invited NATO to keep pumping money and weapons into the Ukraine. Now most of the NATO members have noticed that they are critically short of money and weapons - without having altered the result of the SMO.
Just this morning I was listening to an account of the fighting in Kupyansk. An experienced military officer explained that the Russian retreat from parts of Kupyansk is consistent with their usual tactics. When the Ukrainians scrape up a few brigades from elsewhere and throw them into a town that the Russians had almost captured, the Russians back off and the Ukrainans rush in. Then they need extra supplies, which are sent. Presently the Russians cut off the supply roads, and the whole lot are killed or captured.
On a miniature scale, that is what Russia has been doing to NATO. And that is why I say that Russia is winning.
I was very politely not mentioning this. This is, yet again, a threatening pose. Will the orange blob be intimidated? I doubt it but we'll see I suppose.
Intimidated? Not on your life. He is thrilled - his proxy shield has protected him again.
Personally, I think the target should have been Ramstein Airbase. That might wake them up.
Indeed, I believe that not only should the Russians have hit Ramstein, but they should have given the Americans a day's notice and publicised it around the world. That would have been a huge, huge embarrassment to the Americans in front of world, clearly demonstrating that the Americans have no defence against Russian weapons.
That would be my take. A London suburb or Martha’s Vineyard might be a better target, though.
Well, if you are going to attack that side of the coin, then I would go for broke and lob one into the centre of the City of London, paying particular attention to the banking centres.
Of course, they could save ammo by taking the isreali approach and assassinating three or four billionaires one night.
This is exactly what they had to do already back in 2022 -- start taking out billionaires.
Before the US military got Russian blood on its hands, because once it did, you then have to punish some generals too in order to restore deterrence.
But when it was just the billionaires driving it, you take out the billionaires and you give the military a chance to stand down.
However, how can you do that when billionaires are the most sacred thing for you...
guys, you don´t understand one thing. When nukes start to fly it is crazy to only limit them to some locations. It´s deadly dangerous. It will be a full scale nuclear exchange. Do you really want it?
I've never advocated using nuclear weapons because I tend toward this conclusion, but I'll leave GM to explain why it wouldn't - it makes sense, but I'm afraid people would stop making sense if the nukes start flying. However, in my opinion, Russia's appeasement, and indeed now everybody's appeasement, of the US could lead us into nuclear war. In fact I think it's the shortest and quickest route to that outcome, which is why I have advocated much, much stronger conventional actions.
Of course. If Putin, the Russian leadership, or the Russian military had possessed the same courage and guts, there would have been no need to sacrifice a million of their own citizens, nor would there have been any need to endure the insults and harassment of the American and Western braggarts.
> million
Trillion! Why being so prudent, go for stars!
we feel your pain...
good you are not in command of anything important
What NATO defeat? The first real NATO defeat will come if the Gringo Empire occupies Greenland…
As with all the previous military "alliances" in Europe, NATO will eventually eat itself. All the previous alliances failed, resulting in conflicts between their former members soon after their collapse.
Yeah, sure.
There is only one place the US has ever colonized and then released, and that was the Philippines, and only because the US at the time was racist enough to let it go because it didn't want so many brown people to be part of the US. And because the Japanese had occupied it for a while too, plus it was the perfect place for guerilla warfare.
None of that applies to Greenland.
Astute comment. They are all green; hence Greenland! Makes perfect cents.
I wouldn't say that the Philippines behave very independently.
They don't, but they were not even formally independent between 1898 and 1945
Yankland has achieved its goal of destroying Western Europe and ensuring that there will never be enough trust for a united Europe. Western Europe is weak and failing and meanwhile terroristTrump can work on the everlasting memorial to his greatness he is so desperate for, the Technate of America.
Venezuela was the 1st step and he has gotten away with it, next will be to take Greenland then Columbia. After that it will be Nicaragua followed by Panama.
The aim will be to domino North and Mexico which like Canada are part of the NAU, (DNA) Declaration of North America :
https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/10/declaration-of-north-america-dna/
Will be told "join or else" and after that it is going to be a One World autocratic government where the proletariat will have zero freedom forevermore.
At least that is the plan of terrorist Trump and his insane band of murderous lunatics.
Relax, we are a long way from that. They have kidnapped 2 Venezuelans and hijacked some oil tankers.
By the way, Lukashenko revealed that Maduro's wife was not kidnapped as such but insisted on going with her man.
Apparently she has been charged also, so I'm not sure about that. And she was beaten up from her pictures.
Makes sense they would charge her with some narco-baloney.
Imagine the PR disaster of a loyal wife standing by her man.
Tammy Wynette would be impressed Respect. ❤️
And they let her?
That’s unfortunate this would have been a good opportunity for him to make a clean break
"Venezuela was the 1st step and he has gotten away with it"
Hmmm, did you hear of the man that jumped off a tall building when someone on the 8th floor asked him 'How are you going".
He replied 'So far, so good'!
It's urgent that we all take pity on Taco and pool our money to pay for his electroshock therapy. One of his latest statements: "We have recovered the oil" from the Mariner tanker, which was completely empty of any cargo. Another: "The oil recovered from the tankers has already earned us billions." I really think the bullet he took didn't just take a piece of his ear.
He’s a semi-senile dotard now, like Biden, Pelosi and Schumer, and like Andropov, Chernyenko, Brezhnev, Ceaucescu and Honecker before them. Much more dangerous, though.
Except that Taco collects every known and unknown pathology related to madness on top of it all.
except that socialist leaders never were mirderous sadists like your American polititians - no matter what you´ve read in your Western PR books
That lot of ‘socialists’ were dusty, geriatric fools in stagnant, failing systems that had long lost whatever legitimacy they had ever possessed - much the same as their (admittedly merely middle aged) equivalents in western Europe. But no, I wouldn’t call any of them ‘mirderous'. Your Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Mao Zedong, Enver Hoxha and, of course - the greatest socialist of them all - Mr Pol Pot are another matter.
Slow down there a tad already...What has the Orange Pedovore actually achieved with the Mafia style hit and abduction of Nicolas Maduro? Zilch apart from his usual Hollyweird scripted style PR bullshit for the $lumville retards. No stinky boots on the ground despite all the bluster...there won't be either and nary a drop of oil stolen that wasn't already pumped and loaded onto ships that the pirates could easily steal. As for Colombia and neighbors you should listen to Pepe Escobar "Mr Pipelineistan" himself; all of Latin America despises the Yanqui beast more than ever. After Onkel Schmuel got his wobbly ass kicked senseless by the sandal guys in Vietnam do you really imagine that even Petey Hogshead and his Pentacon chattel are dumb enough to wade through the swamps and jungles of Venezuela and Colombia? Nah it ain't gonna happen even if they could muster and "pay" for enough "dumb stupid animals" as the ZionaZi terrorist fascist, Kissinger called the $lumville army.
Onward ever faster to the total co££ap$€ of their worthless IOU ex Saudimercan toilet paper fiat filth dollah !
Never underestimate their stupidity. After all, they prevoked a war with Russia and lost. How does that look after spending hundreds of billions they didn't have?
That was the plan all along...believe it or not. Ask poisoned cookie dispensing monster and chosenite fatty, Vikki (fuck the EU) Nudelman slash Nuland and her foppish sidekick, Jeffy Pyatt and the rest of the chosen that started the Maidan slaughter. When you got "friends" in $lumville you sure as hell don't need enemies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbjNJbjEy04
So the angloZionaZi$ conned the EUSSR mobsters to start a war with the Bear and the euro peons were dumb enough to imagine that their Pentacon Don would "back them up"; these clowns "running" the evil EUSSR know nothing of history especially their own. When did $lumville send "expeditionary forces" to join in the fun and games of WW1? That's right, april 6th 1917 when most of the shit had already hit the fan. Then the Pentacon cavalry shows up and wins the spoils. When did $lumville join in on the fun and games in WW2? That's right in December 1941 when it was obvious that their NAZI clowns were going to lose and attacked Russia in June 1941, having financed both sides to tear each other apart. (works every time!) The punks who financed all sides sat back and let the idiot euro peons kick the crap out of each other and then Onkel Schmuel rides in to blow his bugle and plunder the losers. Same trick works every time with the scum running Urupp coZ it's all rigged, a con job and the banksters laugh all the way back to the...bank. All wars are banksters wars and war is the harvest of the Jews. Meanwhile cheeZ head, limp-wristed General Rutt from Bangladesh of the North is sitting back for now and waiting his next orders from the Washing town sewer.
Antony Sutton - The Best Enemy Money Can Buy
https://archive.org/details/pdfy-Iqz3ytYcb3wWYJ0c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMXwgH2uvxI
Look at the speed of those missiles. Like lightening bolts.
Thunderbolts of Jupiter.
Of Putin.
Now that's 'shock & awe'
Except nobody in a position of power is shocked or awed, which is exemplified by the recent escalations.
Those are the MRIVed warheads. Just one missile was used.
Ah, yes. Correct.
Fred, do you know if the warheads travel at the same speed as the missile?
Arguably faster. They have the same velocity after separation but are smaller/have less drag, but I'm not the rocket surgeon.
They travel faster. The MIRVs detach at mach 10 and then descend at near vertical trajectory. You're looking at mach 13 ++, likely closer to mach 15/16.
The gas at the target was stored 400 metres underground - if the Oreshnik penetrated that deep (I have no doubt that it did), we are looking at the deepest impact in human history by a man made weapons system.
Note that this Oreshnik had 2 submunitions per warhead, rather than the 6 of the first one.
If they concentrated the mass from 6 into 2, then this gives triple the kinetic energy on impact, at *minimum*, per submunition.
Conceivably, the larger mass submunitions retain higher velocity on impact, for *substantially* increased kinetic impact...
This missile flew further than the first. I wonder if the fuel capacity affected warhead size and number.
Impulse is a fixed number with solid fuel rockets, so range is adjusted with trajectory.
If you follow the thread under Simplicius' top post, these submunitions came in at a slightly shallower angle than the first missiles' submunitions, implying a depressed trajectory to extend the range.
This would suggest that Kapustin Yar -> Lviv is getting close to maximum useful range.
Don't say it too loud—Taco is convinced he has the most effective and spectacular bunker busters. He might have an existential crisis if he finds out nothing is true.
It can't penetrate that deep in that geology. It can theoretically cause kinetic impact sufficient to cause fractures, but that is highly unlikely.
You don't need to hit storage itself - it's just porous rock. All you need to do is to collapse shaft/pipe knicknacks which used to pump gas in and out and whole operation is kaput.
It's legitimately hard to restore if damage done if sufficient manner and I doubt Naftogaz have good enough engineering - they've completely ran down gas infrastructure they've inherited from USSR in classic Ukie style.
Not to mention, Russia can attack site again when they start fixing it
I'll answer for him. Yes, they are carried inside the missile. More seriously, the Orechnik warheads reach a speed higher than the missile once released—Mach 14 and above, with all due reservations.
Nobody is seriously impressed, they are laughing at Putin in DC once again, because he he is hitting the proxy and does not have it in him to strike DC.
Meanwhile the naval blockade is being tightened and no longer even hidden behind the proxy.
Right on cue.....
Someone polished a bedpan again and out he came.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/create-a-cartoon-where-putin-h-REccSlX9TmO58p6h.UaaBQ#0
Dude, you're coming across as having a few screws loose.
So let me get this straight -- the US can bomb deep inside Russia 24/7, which is what has been happening for a year and a half now, but Russia has no right to strike the US directly?
Because what reasons?
Lao Tsu say... "$lumville always winning..even when losing."
What's the sound of HaZel nut landing at gas works even if nobody there?
The US is not doing so directly, though, it's doing so behind a proxy because presumably there are still a few sane heads left there in the US. If you destroy their proxy you call their bluff.
Oh, GM has been doing this for a while now.
A few months ago he said that the USA has already hit Russia with several nuclear weapons, but everyone apart from himself was just too scared to mention the fact.
Either he's an agent provocateur trying to flush out Western Putinistas, a Slavic 6th columnist (just learnt that term recently) trying gin up support for the apocalypse, or else he's a genuine schizoid
What are these guys then:
https://karaganov.ru/en/from-restraining-to-deterring/
Admiral Avakyants is an economist?
I blame the meds that he is getting and fetid air down there in mommie's dirty basement.
Those are a bunch of Russian guys from some sort of a think tank.
I'll read the report and see if they mention the multiple nuclear attacks that you have previous claimed Russia has already suffered.
Hmmm.... let me see...
"This situation may change if, God forbid, these weapons are used and it
turns out that this can be done on a limited scale without triggering escalation to a global
catastrophe."
That's from page 5.
You are full of "it".
>Those are a bunch of Russian guys from some sort of a think tank.
Yeah, so we now know how much you know...
Prof. Sergei Karaganov. Once an unofficial advisor to the Kremlin and leaders including President Vladimir Putin, he now heads the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He believes that after more than three years, the world has realised Russia is at “war with Europe on Ukrainian territory”.
Karaganov noted how Russia had not yet used a nuclear bomb in the war in Ukraine and believes that the US began withdrawing from the war, even under the Biden administration, “when it realised… that it was fighting a losing war, just like it lost in Afghanistan and Iraq… For them, this war is unnecessary”.
this Council for Foreign and Defence Policy is a self-named liberal organisation that "saw the light" after 2022.02.24. As I told earlier, Putin is a liberal by character, I mean that old-time liberal - freedom of speech abd discussion and so on. Another person from this shady "Council" is Fiodor Lukyanov who is regularly interviewed by Duran guys. He also arranges the Valdai conference. Extremely unpleasant man, true liberal (in the new meaning of this word)
That paper the link of which you shared, it’s very meaty.
Here are two choice paragraphs:
“ Conducting regular, close and immediate―we have lost much time already―consultations with Russia’s international partners from among the World Majority countries (especially SCO and BRICS members). Initially this can be done at a senior expert level. Russia should convincingly prove to the leadership, elites, and societies of friendly countries the fairness of its approach, and the validity and accuracy of its political course; convince them that our struggle in Ukraine is part of a global movement for a new world order, free from the hegemony of one country or a group of countries, and that Russia’s defeat would be their defeat as well.
…
Since the active deterrence strategy targets primarily the military-political leadership of the United States and other leading Western countries, as well as the circles that stand above them, these groups of people should be deprived of psychological comfort. Russia should publicly inform them that it will aim its nuclear deterrent at the places where members of the U.S. and Western elites reside. They must understand that they can no longer live in a comfortable and fully protected state.”
There’s no controversy in my mind about this, in fact a lot of what it’s said there is what I’ve been expecting to happen ever since the beginning of the war. Particularly since I heard Putin quoted as saying that he learnt in his childhood’s neighbourhood to strike first if you decided to fight. I haven’t seen that in the Russians, only timidity and reactivity.
I’ll tell you something though, if he wanted to strike the centres of government in the UK he wouldn’t be able to find a better moment than while Starmer is in, he is hated.
Starmer isn't the center of government though, that is the City of London and a few dozen mansions in the countryside.
Karaganov is insane. Not to mention his brilliant idea "let´s bomb Poland to scare the US", but all his ideas are stupid. Like, recently he said "USA is leaving their world-domination idea and moving into the world of regions". I mean, what? Man, stop taking this stuff you are obviously abusing
Or an MI6 twat.
GM, do you know who told Trump that seizing a Russian-flagged ship was a good idea?
Butthurt....feel the pain as the rump Ukrapper dumpster lights up yet again.
This is true. This move won't touch the Western mind. The west acts in young, dynamic fashion, like kidnapping of Maduro. Now, the young people of Iran are going to destroy that state for the sake of their western masters. The young generation all over the world wants just one thing - to become Americans, to consume, to buy shit and watch TV.
"The young generation all over the world wants just one thing - to become Americans, to consume, to buy shit and watch TV."
Nonsense. Young people do not want to watch TV. That's for olds. Young people want to watch their phone screens.
I agree that they are laughing in DC, but it's based in ignorance. The Russian escalation ladder isn't like the western, it's much more patient. More digital, but once the threshold is met, a strong reaction will follow no then the west will scream in surprise how disproportionate it is.
'no' should have been 'and'.
True enough. And oreshniks don't care if anyone is laughing at them.
Exactly my thoughts. The wrath of Thor has spoken. Add to the Ukrainian list of obvious terrorism the New Year's Eve drone attack that targeted a densely populated Russian community in which 30+ civilians were killed. Cowards. How about the poisonous dwarf Zelensky suggesting that Trump should kidnap the leader of Chechnya? The leader's reply said that Zelensky should stop relying on others to do his dirty work, and that he should man up and try sending Ukrainians to Chechnya, where they will receive a proper Muslim welcome!
"Lightning."
No "E."
"Lightning."
Never ever piss off Mother Russia and not expect to get a very severe spanking.
I was just about to go to bed when this post showed up.
Now I'll go to bed.
Still wondering wassup with that empty oil tanker that fled Venezuela...
Wassup is the crew was Ukrainian
Indeed.
20 Ukr, 6 Georian, and 2 Russian crew members - is what I heard on Military Summary.
Wassdey?
"Mostly Ukrainian" is more like it, but was there something on that tanker, being ferried to Venezuela, that the US really, badly wanted a look at?
That's what I meant.
Maybe it was just an empty tanker that turned around, but maybe it was actually transporting something important to Venezuela.
It's still empty apparently. Now sleep tight and pleasant dreams.
I heard a rumor the ship had no oil, but tons of VZ silver on board. On one hand, that makes sense as by the tanker waterline you can tell its empty, but then why would it be pursued so vigorously if not for something on board.
Perhaps the "Coast Guard" clowns were just practising their whirlybird to ship landing techniques? Either way the $lumvillains love this garbage.
The ship never made it to Venezuela so it couldn't have had VZ silver on board... Chip
It had two Russians on board, and they may have thought there were more. Hostages, and yet another spit in the face of Putin. Trump is deliberately seeking to discredit Putin in the eyes of the world. Everybody here, of course, thinks Putin is a minor god, but the rest of the world might be seeing things differently.
edit 1/9: word is they're releasing the Russians, so perhaps they weren't looking for hostages, or two weren't enough, or they've gotten what they wanted by releasing them and receiving Russia's thanks. Like thanking a mugger for not killing you after he steals your money.
Putin's behavior puzzles me allot more than transparent Trump, who wants to be Tony Montana with a 1.5T thug budget.
Maybe Putin is controlled opposition to just justify that 1.5T gift, but maybe Russia has gamed out that nuke war is inevitable , and its a matter of when which is why he lets 4-man squads lead the advance and keeping his gear in the rear.
It could also be that Russia needs the war to justify a huge military expansion so a slow advance might also help keep that money flow going for the time being and outweighs any refinery losses.
The 3-letter agencies are not exactly letting anyone with half a brain to get to the levers of power which is why I think most on this blog knows where all this is headed.
I think you really have to consider that GM is right about Putin. Not a fan of nuclear exchange, but I agree with Feral Finster that the fact that any train is running in Ukraine is a testament to Russian incompetence. The border should have been sealed long ago, Ukrainian leadership taken out, and western support severed. These things are really all elementary.
It all depends on what the Russian objective is. Of course this has been covered many times in these blogs, but while Russia could do all of those things, if they had 'long ago' there would be a whole lot of NATO equipment that at the current time is in many small pieces and a much larger Ukrainian army. Europe appears to be collapsing economically and their push to increase the size of their militaries will push that process along even faster. The EU certainly seems to be self-destructing and with it NATO. That is a much larger prize than killing some leaders and blowing up some trains. It takes time, though. A quick strike would not have allowed for that.
if you have such difficulties to understand Putin just think how hard it is for Western leaders. And it is actually good. They cannot predict his actions and it probably is the last deterrent between us and nuclear war
Did it get far enough to take on silver, or was it carrying something important to Venezuela, or just SNAFU for US DoD again?
Ima call bullshit. Why would an oil tanker be used to haul silver?
But it it "empty"? No oil is different from "empty".
What was covered by this big distraction? An empty ship, running across the ocean, trying to escape a whole armada of US Navy ships. A Russian sub is coming to the rescue, and some surface units too. I think the US chased an empty shell. Showed the US skills in piracy and got a nothing-burger.
I'm awaiting further information about this strange incident.
True. I heard reports of a sub, but not of surface ships. Could be I just missed it. I don't think there is much a sub could do in that situation. Well, launch Armageddon, I suppose, but not over a rusty old tub!
Ukrainian deep gas storage facilities hold ~30% of the EU total strategic winter reserves.
Dutch TTF gas futures market gonna explode on opening, and Germany's energy industrial collapse just gathered a lot of momentum
Exactly my thought. Very curious to see how TTF opens on Monday
And the EU gas storage levels were already 'at the lowest in 10-15 years' in the beginning of January, according to some articles.
Supposedly the low gas levels were 'worrying if there is a long batch of cold weather'
...and it has been very cold weather in the EU the last couple weeks. Like cold enough that there are photos of people skiing next to the Eiffel tower, air travelers stuck in Netherlands for days because of the snow, below minus 40 degrees Celsius measured in Finland, people stuck in their cars on the highway in Sweden and Denmark because of the amount of snow etc.
The problem in Europe is not winter.
Yes, this is the coldest January in a long time, but that by itself wouldn't pose a problem in Europe. What does, pose a problem is that since the last really cold winter in Europe (2012 or so), the energy grid was weakened by stupid stuff like unicorn fart generators, windmills and solar panels. A lot of nukes closed and then there are sanctions. Bonus point for the tanker war, which is not making things much easier.
Never underestimate Europawns. Germanstan has already tested and patented a cow fart gas collection system and will be supplying gree... I mean brown energy throughout Germanistan within the decade.
Ah, that explains why the Netherlands is working to get rid of its cows. Can't have the Fatherland using them for nefarious purposes....
unfortunately all too true
The afterglow of NATO's embrace may yet keep the Swedes and Finns warm and comfy.
In Finland the temperature is not an issue. Electricity prices are slightly higher that normal at this time but the base provision of electricity is through nuclear power after all (roughly 40-50% depending on the day) and topped up by wind and hydro. Heating rarely is done with gas here.
And who does that punish?
Ordinary people in Ukraine.
Not Trump, not Lindsey Graham, and not the Zionist billionaires cabal behind them, who actually run things. They are just laughing right now. But how can Putin strike them when he is working for the Zionist billionaires in Russia, not for Russia the country...
Yes, how stupid it is to think that the Washington Warmongers could be punished by blowing up some stuff inside Ukraine? As if they cared about the Ukro useful idiots…
Besides, it is very telling that there were no massive secondary explosions after the strikes. The reservoir was probably empty.
"Besides, it is very telling that there were no massive secondary explosions after the strikes."
Looks like you missed where Simp reported the afterglow in the sky, apparently the gas burning off.
When underground gas storage facilities catch fire they don't just blow up - there's no oxygen underground, just gas. What happens is when the gas vents to the surface through cracks caused by kinetic damage that gas catches on fire and there's a plume of fire, not an explosion.
A 20” search told me that the minimum storage pressure in underground reservoirs is 30 bar. If a reservoir at that pressure would have been breached, the gas jet blowing out of the holes and burning would likely reach hundreds (if not thousands!) of meters, like a freaking gigantic blowtorch! And it would burn out very quickly, as well. The long duration afterglow probably shows that the burning gas was the residual amount left inside the cavern at close to atmospheric pressure.
So effectively then, Putin and the Kremlin cabal would have known its state of depletion, and attacked it so it can't be used again, via Euro gas reserves being pumped in.
They didn't want mass civilian casualties from a "blowtorch" event - just the continued degradation of Ukraine's willingness to continue this unequal and ultimately pointless fight.
When Vladimir was asking me what I wanted for Christmas recently, at a private function in the Kremlin, I said "Please ask Santa to blow up the Brussels parliament when Ursula is making some address or other," and he winked and said "I'll see what we can arrange," but this is what he came up with instead, which on reflection I think was the more sensible strategy.
Can You kindly ask Him if He allows us to arrange a go-fund-me to buy a couple hazelnuts to be sent with our compliments to City and Davos as well???
Love it, ten points!
Say hi to Mr President for me, the next time you're in town for борщ!
Interesting.
You do realize that Lvov and nearby regions directly use that gas from that storage? If rumors about falling pressure in the system in city true, then only residual amounts of gas will be at gas stoves, not storage. Soon.
I think that would only be true if there were an unimpeded route to the surface. If the gas had to force its way through fissures opened by the strike (ie, cracks, not a big hole) it would come out much more slowly. Still fast, but not necessarily big blowtorch fast. It also would be coming out in many places, not in a concentrated stream.
And if it is not a gusher type hole but instead is leaking from cracks in the dome seeping through a hundred feet or more of earth all the way up to the surface where it burns off?
The Washington warmongers can only be hurt economically. Even though that will also hurt the average man on the street in the Western bubble. The greater push against the US is an offensive against the dollars role in global finance being carried out by the Chinese Russians and the global majority. The Washington warmongers can look at all the zeros in their accounts, until one day those zeros actually represent the actual value of zero.
Destroying the gas storage is still effective as it also destroys the purpose of the facility, the capacity to store.
Wholly agree with this, except that with the current shale gas export capacity in the US, the destruction of this reservoir is positive for the US oligarchy in the short and medium term.
Yes, but we are still talking about the US dollar and an extremely strong chance of inflation and a fall in value of the currency. A short term win yes, but what happens to that wealth in the long term?
I tend to agree with you, I guess the most probable outcome of the end of the Gringo Empire will be an economic, financial and monetary implosion. But we cannot rule out the possibility that the King in Orange & his minions succeed in a kind of modern “Diocletian Reform” and are able to postpone the collapse for 50 or 100 years, by similar methods. I think there is a real possibility of this scenario happening as neither Russia nor China seem to be actively undermining the economic foundations of Gringostan. Actually, they seem to be accommodating passively rather than actively opposing it, especially when it comes to their backyards (Caucasus, SE and Central Asia, etc.)
"an extremely strong chance of inflation and a fall in value of the currency" Where ya bin?
Do you think the term "stacking" means piling up CheeZy Puffs at Walfart? Au, Ag tells you all you need to know about that there "chance of inflation" stuff. Oh and don't forget to "stack" mucho boxes of Pb if you figure out the first bit.
Get up to speed on that there "shale" mythology. Greetings from the depleted Baken and its ass cold here, let me add. We need our stinking gas and thank goodness it is still coming out of the kitchen sink faucet at least for now! We ain't got none for those cheese head euro clowns.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995822624002139
I’ve been studying peak oil and the shale thing since the early 10’s. The shale drillers have beaten all the peak oil doomer expectations. BUT, once the output decline starts in the big shale fields, it’s going to be a very steep dive…
I'm in the upper Midwest and I can confirm that a gallon of "regular gas" here has dropped from recent highs of $3.15/gal to about $2.17 gal.
This is a precipitous price drop and I can't really wrap my head around it. Can anyone give insight for such a drop? That's an easy savings of $300-500/month, or more, if you're commuting in rural Wyoming or parked in traffic in LA, NY, Miami or Chicago. Locally, prices can vary as much as $.30-.40/gal comparing more affluent suburbs to the more working class locales.
As I've posted before, I think that the US intends to keep Vz oil OFF the market and held in reserve for future development. AKA the long game.
It also assures price supports vs bringing more oil online. As a plastic injection molder told me years ago, plastics are made from the nasty orphan oil you'll find at the literal "bottom of the barrel". If we ride "Peak Oil" down, that Vz oil will come in very handy for providing feed stocks for making all the plastic products we depend on daily. Thanks for your attention to this matter...
Oil supply is up a little bit because OPEC has loosened constraints, and demand is down because, despite all the rosy talk, inflation is killing individual use and there's an ongoing de-industrialization in Europe.
Reducing demand for oil from the deepening actually existing US recession combined with the global oil glut from record US & global production in consecutive years 2024 & 2025 has driven down the price of fossil fuel energy.
"The Washington warmongers can look at all the zeros in their accounts, until one day those zeros actually represent the actual value of zero."
If you think the Washington warmongers rely on the continued value of fiat dollars I have several bridges to sell you. They'll be loaded to the gills in gold, silver, diamonds, land, and other things that will gain value as the dollar declines. China could have tanked the bond market twenty years ago but instead has been quietly and slowly divesting - because tanking it would have destroyed their foreign reserves. Killing the dollar is an exceptionally dicey game.
20 years is a long time to prepare for a much smoother transition. Especially when the institution that support the dollar have done such a wonderful job of destroying the trust that the Western financial system depends on. Also you underestimate the faith that bind majority of people to fiat. You may find, that as much as the noise is getting louder, it is only a minority that maintains possession of pet rocks. The vast majority of people are invested in paper and they just have so much faith in accumulating zeros on their bank ledger.
I see. You think these warlords and hardened profiteers are as naive as newborn babes. I'm talking about the actually wealthy decision-makers, not the factory workers and mid-level bureaucrats. The dollar would long ago have disappeared if its holders hadn't been working so hard to maintain it: Japan, the west Asian nobility, even China and Russia a few years ago. And of course the coercive effect of the giant US military. - that's what people trust.
Keep in mind that Chia does not issue a reserve currency and cannot issue a reserve currency without running current account deficits and thus killing its current business model (because without running current account deficits, nobody would have the reserve currency to use as reserves).
Right. That plan works for global hegemon wannabes, but not for peaceful commercial countries. One might say that is true of all fiat currency, since they are usually instituted in order to spend money a country doesn’t have waging war. China could oversee a return to the gold standard, however, and there are signs it might be doing that.
It will be filled again in a week....I'm sure, if the kiev koke kike has anything to say about it! More snow, Mr Montano!
It is surprising your comment. As did you not think "Nuking" everything would affect civilians much more than hitting energy infrastructure?
That said it is always average people that suffer. The elites always find a way to escape hardship. It's like all the children of the Ukrainian oligarchs living their best lives in Europe, driving sports cars while the poor Ukrainians are sent to the meat grinder.
>As did you not think "Nuking" everything would affect civilians much more than hitting energy infrastructure?
Yes, the nuclear strikes that Putin needs to carry out will practically not affect any civilians.
Those strikes are:
1) Deep penetrating Kinzhal/Zirkon/Oreshnik with around 0.2 kt on them on the bunkers in downtown Kiev.
2) Kinzhal/Zirkon/Oreshniks bunker busters with 50 kt on each warhead/MIRV (so that large craters are excavated) on the border crossings with Poland and Romania, and then repeated such strikes so that they are permanently taken out and NATO cannot shovel weapons into Ukraine.
We are not talking megaton airbursts on cities, we're talking deep bunkers and small nukes away from cities.
Had Putin done that in 2022 hundreds of thousands of innocent people on both sides would be alive.
Had Putin carried out nuclear strikes in 2022, there probably would have been a nuclear response by an emotional irrational West. Yes, it could be said they wouldn't, but would it be advisable to test the resolve of the irrational? Nuclear strikes come with radiation fall out, how would Russia control what direction the wind blows? Also how would they control the consequences of the direction of the breeze?
Look, "Putin bad" is GMs message, so don't put him off his stroke with reality checks.
GM somehow misses the point that Russia is up against an organization, countries, which reactions are completely unpredictable, unlogical, irrational, crazy , obsessed, never will accept defeat or retract and willing to sacrifice the whole world (similar like the Samson doctrine or the Russian nuclear doctrine).
My only hope is that the ruling elite repeat the same the Austrian painter did at the end. Unfortunately the western population cannot be saved
Yes, and June 22 1941 was just a provocation that the USSR should not have overreacted to. Right?
They didn't tell you that the "Austrian painter" moved to South America. Go check and see if he is still there...the FBI of all clowns had him pegged there well into the 50's if not the 60's. I kid you not, Do you also think that Jeffy Epstein, Mossad Orange's pedovore procurer also snuffed himself? Just curious.
"GM somehow misses the point that Russia is up against an organization, countries, which reactions are completely unpredictable, unlogical, irrational, crazy , obsessed, never will accept defeat or retract and willing to sacrifice the whole world"
That's what they would have us believe, but take a step back and it looks more like they're taking a calculated risk that has fully paid off so far. People keep calling Trump "TACO" - does that sound like someone who doesn't recognize risk and is irrational?
Of course everything about the man screams irrational, but someone is doing something right - if you accept that world dominion is an acceptable goal.
This dude has a death wish. Get on with it but leave the rest of the planet out of your nightmares, seriously.
Yeah, Zelensky buys ranch in Wyoming and 29 million dollar condo in New York. It's a show. Get rid of Zelensky and this war is over.
Your shrivelled heart bleeds no doubt for your rump Ukrapper USeful corpses.
Who cares. It's US/EU proxy. They obviously don't want this proxy to lose, they've spent hundreds of billions to keep it afloat. Whole Warsaw Pact arsenal literally vanished, and these countries now trying to replace it and reeling from debt. West doesn't even have stocks of artillery shells/missiles anymore, they are literally became a joke
Beating Ukraine into bloody pulp is exactly what should be done and it's being done.
If gas facility really kaput, then it was hit against Europe too - they stored good chunk of their reserves there
This is Ukraine’s Nordstream moment (on the receiving side). Maybe the Russians should suggest that the Ukrainians destroyed it themselves with their Flamingoes ?
I think you put that rather well. ;O)
There is no explosion:
https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=6117262
The west manages to steal gas form other places.
Google machine tells me there was 12-14 billion cubic meters in the gas storage as of late 2025.
Curious, if 12B m3 of gas escapes to the atmosphere does that cause any environmental damage or local toxicity?
I recall when Nor stream was taken out the amount of gas escaped was enormous.
yes, but did it result in changes in the weather? perhaps spouting gas into the atmosphere is comparable to volcanic activity, which influences weather patterns world-wide. it might not be noticeable untill some time afterwards. the continuous bombings in the ME are bound to have an enormous environmental impact. it's absolutely horrendous.
Not even close. The amount of gas and material a volcano ejects -- at least ones which have the potential to influence world-wide weather patterns -- is orders of magnitude greater than what man has done.
All gas futures are down at the moment. The market doesn't seem impressed.
The Duran and other channels are saying the site has been completely destroyed, with a loss of 50% of all reserves in the country = up to 15% of all EU strategic winter reserves gone.
And at a time when storage was at an estimated 58% capacity, an all-time low over previous years.
The mainstream media non-reaction to the economic impacts this will have downstream feels like ignoring a tide suddenly disappearing to the horizon.
I find the missile impressive, if that's your point, but if your point is that this attack will create market furor it simply hasn't. The market did end the day very slightly positive, but only as a minor blip on the screen. Of perhaps more interest is that the market is in what's called "backwardation," which is commodities talk for saying the current price for gas delivered next month is lower than the price today, meaning the market expects more gas, or less demand, next month than this month. Commodities traders stay on top of the news, so this price means that the missile strike is having no significant impact on gas supplies.
Frankly, I can't account for why, but them's the facts, and those are the reactions of the most knowledgeable people in the world on the subject.
Thankyou for the market insight, adds to the bucket of knowledge
The choice of target is the point, to create an economic shock aimed at NATO/EU as well as strategic.
An article from Reuters 2023 reported on the €800 Billion energy crisis cost to the EU over an 18 month period Sep 2021 - Feb 2023.
"BRUSSELS, Feb 13 (Reuters) - European countries' bill to shield households and companies from soaring energy costs has climbed to nearly 800 billion euros, researchers said on Monday, urging countries to be more targeted in their spending to tackle the energy crisis.
European Union countries have now earmarked or allocated 681 billion euros in energy crisis speding, while Britain allocated 103 billion euros and Norway 8.1 billon euros since September 2021, according to the analysis by think-tank Bruegel"
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-spend-energy-crisis-nears-800-billion-euros-2023-02-13/
Although that includes the end period of covid support, it also includes the first Russian sanction shocks. A further 18 rounds of sanctions and inflation cost of living economic crisis likely have more than doubled that €800Bn in the 24 months since publication.
Its the social economic ripples beyond the city trading desks, that impact the ordinary people in heating eating and transport costs that it will eventually break upon
My point is that the choice of target did NOT create an economic shock. Even a successful strike created yawns. That’s what the market is saying, and again, these are the most knowledgeable people in the world on the subject. The high price of energy thanks to the sanctions, ironically, has had a very large impact. Strange that Europe is doing more to harm itself than Russia is doing, but that is very clear.
Or perhaps it isn’t so strange, since the US engineered the sanctions and high energy costs and is benefiting enormously from the European handicap. That was, if you’re wondering, explicitly set forth as a policy goal in the think tank piece on the subject Brian Berletic is always talking about.
A post I came across on Zerohedge translates a Russian Telegram blog with a very direct interesting commentary along the point you mention, to destroy the lynchpin of the US plan to control EU gas supplies.
(Translated)
"The Western Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities are not “energy” or “Ukrainian objects”. They are the foundation of the American plan to capture the European gas market. A key node of the “north-south” scheme, through which the US wanted to push its LNG into Europe and finally displace Russian pipeline gas.
25 billion cubic meters is not a reference figure, it’s almost the entire useful volume of Ukrainian storage facilities integrated into a system that has been honed for decades for Russian supplies. It’s a complex engineering node, without which the entire American “energy crusade” turns into a set of presentations and fantasies.
LNG comes from two sides – north and south. Next on the plan is to connect the terminals, gain access to the UGS and Baumgarten, lay pipes, declare this as “diversification” and sell gas to Europeans at three times the price. But they don’t want to build new pipes – it’s expensive. It’s much more convenient to ride the existing network and simply seize it from the previous owner.
That’s the whole strategy. Crude. Direct. Predatory.
And now about the “analysts” and bloggers.
Most of them are either clinically stupid or deliberately pretending not to understand what happened. They discuss “attacks on Ukraine”, “escalation” and “politics”, because admitting the reality means admitting that the American gas project has failed, not some abstract “energy”.
So the whining about “symbolism”, “inefficiency” and “nothing has changed” begins. This is a lie. Everything has changed. Without the UGS, the “north-south” corridor is dead. Without it, American LNG remains expensive, fragmented and unable to replace Russian gas in the necessary volumes.
So either a person doesn’t understand this – and then he’s just a useful idiot, or he understands – and then he’s an enemy. There’s no third option.
This is not an attack on Ukraine. This is an attack on the American scheme of capturing pipelines, markets and money. That’s why there’s so much hysteria, confusion and deliberate misunderstanding around it.
And yes – this is one of the most painful responses. Not loud, not media-driven, but truly adult: where it hurts, it’s expensive and you can’t really fix it.
Orig. Telegram Link: https://t.me/odessitfromshz/31383
(H/T YouPi at Zerohedge)
Hmmm with selective investing the average citizen could make some money from this war.
Better hope for a mild winter; it's been bloody cold around the purlieus of Hull.
Props to you S for getting the story out. This is wild.
It seems like these are the same type of slugs used in the last attack.
The apparent capability to destroy major underground energy storage facilities with a single launch is a clear message of strength especially given the US' clear desire for energy dominance.
In a way it's also a very aggressive attack on the US dollar given that decent chunk of the USD's value is explicitly tied to the energy trade. It reminds me of the old line from Dune, "He who can destroy a thing has the real control of it."
Maybe it's the Butlerian Jihad. Harkonnen made the first move, now the Arteides have planted their flag
The spice must flow!
I'm thinking the Bene Gesserit witch must leave.
Which witch?
There are many, Fond of Lying would qualify
Except the Bene Gesserit are highly intelligent, skilled and plan very long-term. That's not something I would accuse Fonda Lyin, Callous Kallas or any of the others of. In fact calling them witches is an insult to witches! :-)
Well, the Emperor made the first move by placing the Atreides in Arrakas not to help them but to eliminate them, but I see your point. Things have taken on a rather strange and epic flavor recently haven't they?
I think I just saw the Caesar of the Third Rome hurl the thunderbolts of Zeus a thousand miles from the Pontic steppes, whilst I was drinking coffee in my pajamas.
The rise of the digital demi-God has intersected neatly with the rise of the Golden God-Emperor of the West, while the Red Emperor of the East holds in his own hands all the new rare-earth spice.
I'm just waiting for the Kwisatz Haderach to turn up. If the Zionist find a Red Heifer and establish the third temple we might all be screwed.
Plot twist !
A.I. is the Moshiach / Mahdi / Anti-Christ ! (and also we're all screwed).
Good luck and sleep tight kids!
That is coming, when rich guys with robots can enslave humanity.
Systematic. That is the key word here. Not emotional reaction. Not bull-in-the-china shop fervor.
Systematic. Slowly chewing on the enemy, eating away his ability to fight and wearing down his morale.
Systematic. Revenge served cold without emotion. Payback for the stupidity of challenging a bear head-on.
Systematic. Observing a country slowly and methodically disappear in the winter night.
Good night Ukraine. Good night, Europe.
Good points. When we compare the warring parties we see cool, calm and meticulous one one side. On the other side there is a lot of action, but everywhere it smacks of desperation. It seems the US is in an untenable fiscal position. The protection racket doesn't seem to be pulling in too much cash thus far. Now the thick heads have been sent to crack some skulls. What are the chances of success? Low, they left their run too late. The decay has eaten away their foundations. The problems are structural. Violence and intimidation are the only tools left in the box. Don't let the door hit you on the arse on the way out.
>Systematic.
Systematic is what Israel and the US are doing in the Middle East and to Russia and China globally.
The only "systematic" thing Putin is doing is the destruction of Russian deterrence and standing in the world.
A proper systematic response would be to start eliminating the US billionaires. One by one. Or more than one at a time -- a triple-digit number of them had gathered to celebrate New Year on a Caribbean island, an opportunity that Putin naturally missed. This will both enforce deterrence against the people who matter and punish those truly responsible for the war on Russia.
But in the Putinist mind there are two categories of people -- those who matter and those who don't. Billionaires, no matter what passports they hold, are in the first category, and they are sacred. Ordinary people, regardless of whether they are Russian or not, do not matter, and their deaths are of no concern to Putin, even though it is supposedly his duty to protect them.
Thus the absurd spectacle of the US striking Russia, now no longer even behind the Ukrainian proxy's back, and Putin retaliating against the Ukrainian proxy, while he begs for a deal that will make his oligarch masters inside Russia happy,
No, no. More 500,000,000,000. Everyone knows he is a greedy crook - I mean like he is growing richer every day whilst his people go starving and Russia's infrastructure and economy breaks down!
Gee dude. How lucky you are to see inside the Putinist mind. You left out the part bout how Putin at the beginning of his "reign" buckled down on Russia's billionaires and not only. America's and EUs billionaires are their problem. Or for someone that doesn't care bout ordinary people worked so hard and so well to upgrade their lives and life spans. And grow their bank accounts. Compare that to ANY western state in the same timespan. As for systematic applied you need to rethink the definition of systematic as applied to the US actions. The only thing they do systematically is break laws destabiluze states and kill people.
All to say your comments come across as helluva lot of coping.
>worked so hard and so well to upgrade their lives and life spans. And grow their bank accounts.
He is just a Russian FDR, minus the courage to come out and speak directly to the public in critical situations.
FDR's goal was to save capitalism by making some concessions to the masses, otherwise there was a real danger of a communist revolution. And he succeeded, with the implicit long term understanding that when the conditions are right again the concessions will be withdrawn. Which is the story of the last 50 years.
Putin was installed after Yeltsin had to bring in the Americans to fix the election in 1996 for him, otherwise he would have lost to the communists, but things only got worse after that, and something had to be done in order to preserve the newly installed oligarchic system. The price for its preservation was making some concessions and doing a little bit of redistribution. But the core of the system remained in place -- Russia was systematically robbed of its real wealth in favor of the West and most of the proceeds from the percentage it got for it went into the pockets of Russian oligarchs. That is how it is to this very day. They haven't even blocked urainium and titanium exports to the US, FFS...
>The only thing they do systematically is break laws destabiluze states and kill people.
And who is going to stop them?
Dude the man gives 4 hour press conferences where anyone can and does call in. Sit down. The fact that he doesn't tweet or blather to the press 6 times a day is a pro not a con. Like any good leader he knows how to delegate. And has the very best people to do so. Cause you know that's how meritocracy works unlike nepotism or failing upwards as we see in the US and EU. When he speaks people listen. Attentively. When Trump speaks people larf and or shake their heads. When NATO or EU speak people do a slow boil. Spot the difference?
Zelensky has been a much more effective wartime leader.
Objective fact.
Sometimes you really need a larf button. And this is one of those times. There has been nothing effective bout Zelensky. In war or in govt. Unless you count his little Starvation Army beggar act. Complete with tin cup. Ignorance I can forgive but wilful ignorance not. Ciao ciao.
but then the communists(bolsheviks really) sacrificed the little people too, but they used phrases like 'historical processes' and all that slop.
and lenin too considered himself an 'european' :)))
this is all a joke my friend, relax, start loving the bomb :)))
Agreed.
But Ukraine still has the electricity. The night clubs in Kyiv are still operating.
Quite a bit of electricity comes from ,Hungary apparently Orban has said.
None of this scares anybody. All it shows is that Russia fears escalation and the West will keep right on pushing.
Isn't it also Russia's christmas week, maybe they have all gone on christmas holidays or undeclared chrustmas ceasefire
Finally!
The Gas storage sites was obvious targets but also in a way terminal for Ukraine. Without stored gas I suspect they have to cave in pretty soon.
However, exactly how, is the storaged destroyed? Shouldnt the field blow up in a giant underground explosion? Could be that the gas is burning through 36 holes in the earth.
Very interesting times with these new weapons. Biblical pictures and movies.
Again!
We should have had a contest for when and where the next strike would be!
I hope we will not sink that low. Poor people in Ukraine will now suffer in cold and darkness. This War is one of the most costly and hasnt achieved anything good.
The partition of Ukraine eastern regions, russian-speaking, should have been done by reasonable leaders. To force out their own citizens, such as Porochenko made it vivid, is a crime against humanity. And to prolong the inevitably end is even a bigger crime. Whatever happens in the end one side has lost men for nothing. And is there any winners here after four long years?
For an explosion, you need oxygen in a specific ratio to the gas. I'm pretty sure they try not to let oxygen into storage areas. Skyglow as gas burns off at the surface makes perfect sense.
Right!
>Without stored gas I suspect they have to cave in pretty soon.
Spoiler alert -- they won't
Because official leadership and the people who profit from the war inside Ukraine will not be in any way affected by this. They are not even in Ukraine most of the time.
The only way to force the Ukrainians to cave in is to start taking out the political, military and economic elite. Make it 100% deadly to be in those positions, and nobody will be willing to be in them.
Otherwise the senseless slaughter will continue.
Right now in both DC and on Bankova they are laughing at Putin's impotence.
Highlarious Mr M.
This ”take out the leaders” is something I advocated long time ago. Almost everyone here said that this will make Zelensky a martyr, it will backfire or that he is just a puppet that makes so many mistakes that Russia will win on walk-over.
The first killing in a War should always be the Leaders who start the War. If it appear that the enemy has organized their leadership again - do it once more.
Some guy in US just did that (although unclear if it has succeded to subdue V)
They tried to take out Putin (who had promised Naftali Bennet not to kill Zelensky?!) so many cried about a response from Russia. Puncturing the Gas depot, if it was a success we will soon know, makes irreparable damage to Ukraine and their people. If Dniepropetrovsk and other stay black-outed for a week without possibility to heat buildings, waterpipes will freeze, sewage pile up and unhabitable conditions arise.
So it shouldnt be too difficult to hunt the central leadership. Then UK/EU also have problem to know who to snake-talk with.
Meanwhile in Belgorod:
===============
https://t.me/sashakots/58986
The really important news: Belgorod. Half a million without power and heat.
"Oreshnik" in Lviv and a blackout in Kyiv - that's all well and good. But for any Russian right now, the most important news isn't coming from Ukraine, but from the Belgorod region. There, after overnight strikes in six municipalities, 556,000 people are without power, the same number without heat, and 200,000 without water...
Belgorod was preparing for this. I saw the authorities holding meetings and training sessions. They were practicing three winter scenarios - bad, very bad, and catastrophic. They've thought of everything - from those who bypass elevators after the power goes out to prevent people from freezing inside, to those who tear down billboard advertisements with evacuation instructions underneath. For now, thank God, the advertisements are still in place.
"We've entered a period that has become natural for us," the head of the region told his subordinates in the fall. "A catastrophe hasn't happened, but we need to prepare for the worst." If they want a political effect, they'll wait for frost and then strike. This will lead to tension among people. So we're sleeping with our eyes open."
Generators were brought to the region from across the country, supplying social facilities and the private sector. Governors, volunteers, and foundations helped. Some transported backup power in Gazelles, others in convoys of trucks, like the Volodya Solovyov Foundation. Warming stations were set up in the city...
And the enemy methodically knocked out the power grid, including the networks through which electricity can be transferred from another region.
"The backup capacity that we've been installing together over the past few months is being connected. Restoration work is underway where it can be restored. The situation is extremely difficult. But I hope we can get through it," the governor wrote today.
Belgorod, hang in there!
Agree. Should never happened if Kreml was resolute enough to end the War. And I have always said that time is not on Russias side because the strain goes both ways. Of course the situation is much, much worse in Ukraine and people can endure horrific for years. Ask Germans, Japanese and Koreans…
The problem with long wars is that the sacrifices made and suffering endured doesnt match the outcome. One side will win, the other lose. If they negoiate a ”peace” no one has won and people would ask: wtf did we do this for?
I dont know slavic people, if they are indifferent to killing of familymembers, or if they are like me; live and let live and every dead soldier is a tragedy with consequnces for decades. The Bandera-cult and deep hatred of Russians is evidence of just that tragedy back in 1930-1950.
I wish all civil persons all good.
You've captured my thoughts exactly. Putin and his cronies, who have never lost a family member, are calling this a protracted war of attrition? As the Korean proverb goes, "Old water tastes bitter," is this escalating into a Russian-style war? As GM pointed out, we needed to use every possible means—assassination of the ultra-wealthy, removal of war leaders, and removal of journalists spreading disinformation—to bring this war to a swift end. This isn't just a play on words. We need to strengthen the very nature of the war, not simply change the name, to bring our enemies to their senses and demonstrate deterrence. If President Putin truly cares about Russia, he must do so before it's too late.
> Some guy in US just did that (although unclear if it has succeded to subdue V)
I suppose the success will depend on to what extent ordinary people are behind Chavismo. If they are then no amount of decapitation will solve the problem completely, as shown by Hamas and Hezbolla.
Are you sure about Hamas and Hizbollah? They may have followers and actives but very unclear if they have a functioning leadership. Israel kills them all.
Venezuela is sanctioned and US will eventually bomb them like Iraq if not complying to US will but you are right in that it is a balance. What would people long for more? Wealth and food on the table or freedom from imperialists?
I can see your point.
The long-term success will depend on whether Venezuela ever exports oil and minerals to the people Trump says shouldn't get them. That was the real point of the exercise, and the current president seems, at least, to be submitting despite the rhetoric. For the time being the operation was a complete success. It also formed a perfect opportunity to tell Russia, China, and all their friends that the US will control the region with absolute impunity and no regard whatever for liberty or life. Not likely either Russia or China will have anything to say about that any time soon.
with the corollary that they will be able to control the price as well due to the fact that they control the supply.
the so called brics is as stupid and weak as the mughal empire was :)))
For me, retaliation would be hitting the EU propaganda train that carries western leaders to Kiev to do a bump coke every few months.
Russia keep saying they will strike at foreign troops, and if on the ground of Ukraine they are legit targets. To me, its a perfect opportunity. Do we really think the UK will go rabid if Starmer with a 15% approval rating is killed in a strike on that train?
A precedent we dont want to have…
But hitting the tunnels and bridges would hamper/destroy the ability to use the train
The uk plan ever always only was to run screaming to the United States. Again.
>However, exactly how, is the storaged destroyed?
It wasn't, they just set it on fire.
Purely kinetic penetrators are of very limited use because all they can carry is the energy in the missile's propellant minus what was lost on the way, which is at least half.
So five-ten tons of explosives maximum combined for all the penetrators. Which is not all that much.
Either you put nukes on these things, or you take out a very specific high-value personnel target, or this is just another useless stunt.
That is just more of your broke-brain "dial everything up to eleven, cut all the brake cables and accelerate full speed towards Armageddon" nonsense.
NOBODY has ever seen what these Oreshnik penetrators can do to an underground gas facility, it's NEVER happened before.
It doesn't matter what they can do to an underground gas storage becayse NOBODY CARES ABOUT AN UNDERGROUND STORAGE.
A meaningful response would have been to send an SSGN to take out the hundreds of US billionaires that were gathered on St. Barth for New Year. That would force people to take notice and cool off some enthusiasm for further aggression towards Russia.
But he didn't do that.
And can't do that because everything he worked for for a quarter of a century was the interests and the sanctity of billionaires.
Sometimes you do have a certain entertainment value, but today you are becoming boring in the extreme with your vivid fantasies of nuclear attacks and killing billionaires.
Always try to remember the Eleven God's Commandments, specially the last, but most important of all.
Thou shallst not become the pain in the arse of your neighbours.
Dima, at Military Summary channel now reports that the gas storage wasn't even hit, but that a nearby airfield was, perhaps to hit F-16s. That might explain the gas market's total non-response to the supposed elimination of European gas. Possible Simplicius got the wrong info this time.
Yeah, but that doesn't change much.
Nobody cares about some 50-year old F-16s either.
I agree, but even fewer people care about the F-16s, and I was curious about the failure of the market to reflect a hit supposedly on a major gas storage facility. The Putin is always right crew like to think Russia is inflicting massive economic damage on Europe; it didn't happen in this case at least. It was another empty gesture.
I differ. It is incomprehensible that we havent seen any BDA from the first strike with Oreshnik, in Dniepropetrovsk. Is the facility burnt out or not?
I think Russia is using Oreshnik sparingly and cunning. It could be that the Gas depot is a ”test” of penetration (they built so they know every detail), a message to West and Ukraine and at the same time inside the strategy of energy depleting for Ukraine.
The five-ton equivalent is probably correct but here we have 4000-6000 degree, not molten, arrows at tremendous speed slicing through earth, much like APDS on armour. Is it enough with 100m or 200m to puncture the depot? I dont know but on the video you can see the 6x6 penetrators coming in at an angle, thus slicing through pipes also.
The silence in media in my country is deafening. It tells me something has happened.
Nobody cares whether Ukrainians freeze or starve. A farmer doesn't worry about the well-being of the chickens he's slaughtering.
Tough talk.
For the record, Russians and everyone else in the Orthodox world are off from work and school until January 12. Not a time for launching ground assaults! 😊 Plus, very cold in Ukraine and first real snows of the season happened this week.
Not the Greeks, not the Bulgarians, not the Romanians, none of which are of the old rite...
all those 3 celebrate christmas on 25th of december.
That is what I said.
indeed, sry :)
Ukraine is no longer on the old calendar. IIRC it is a criminal offense in Ukraine to celebrate Orthodox Christmas on January 7.
I think the big picture trajectory of the war continues on the path forecast or signalled by many in Russia, which is a long drawn out war, with ebbs and flows of course, that in the end will result in a thorough demilitarization and destruction of the Ukrainian state, as well as sustained economic and political decline in the West.
It always helps to remember that for Russia and China together, this is an existential conflict (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/xi-tells-putin-of-changes-not-seen-for-100), and their strategies and tactics reflect this reality - a fight for survival.
For Russia and russians, it certainly is. For Putin, it is clearly not existential, because he is not willing to do what's necessary to actually give consequences to those that are attacking Russia and russians.
And I don't even mean attacking NATO countries directly or start WW3, but at least send proper messages to them by killing their puppets in Ukraine, arming countries / groups that are anti-west, stop trade completely with USA and vassals, end diplomacy with USA and vassals and especially this "peace settlement" in Ukraine, which is quite embarassing for Putin.. An existential threat means you will do what needs to be done to survive. Putin is not willing to do that and Russia and russians continue to be attacked every day, which means the current "restraint" is sending the message to the west that they can continue escalations and provocations, without consequences.
I mean Putin himself is targeted and his response is targeting what is targeted on daily basis in the SMO anyway, plus Putin is still talking about "negotiations" with USA....That is a weak response that shows Putin does not consider the situation existential for Russia.
Since the beginning both sides use that word, "existential". I do not think it means what they think it means.
100%
"targeting what is targeted on daily basis in the SMO"
When was the last time the targeted anything 400m underground?
“Strange lights” and cities go dark while supersonics are flying unchallenged. And these weapons are not even nuclear. This is really something to think about for NATO before they step into this war with full force. And Krivoy Rog is somehow always getting it.
Zelensky was born in Krivoy Rog, so the town must be scolded for not raising him better.
I recall seeing him in Western Ukraine many years ago. The chicks at the local disco were making fun of him, telling him: "You ugly and your mamma is dressing you funny..."
Disappointed that a man of your cosmopolitan character and intellect spent time in local discos in the Hicksville of western Ukraine with a person, the high point of whose life was playing a piano with his dick.
'with a person'? " cosmopolitan character"?
Are you hallucinating? Thanks God I am country boy and certainly not a freaky Neanderthal.
All meteorological stations in Ukraine still work. So, there are no cities going dark. Russia is unable to destroy Ukro energy network, probably unwilling due to the interests of various oligarchs.
We shall see...
In big cities you cannot survive more then 3 days without electricity.
If that is true, Kiev should be empty in a week.
We see no refugee columns on the Ukro roads.
However, it is possible that the Ukrainians would remain in the cold flats. They are ready to withstand anything. They are in war with Russia and they like it. That is purpose of their lives, it is like ISIS.
Most of the various Banderites are alive and well, swanning about from high profile conference to fundraiser to star-studded seminar.
Well, why is Russia unable to disrupt the fuel supply in Ukraine?
Even the trains are operating normally.
Not just 4electricity - sewer and water. Without sewer and water, cities quickly become uninhabitable.
meh, is just january, until march-april it won't be that bad.
also leningrad has entered the chat :))
When the government payed milita called ANTIFA destroyed an important electricity hup in Berlin (3rd of Jannuary), we found out why. In Germany the lights went out because all the technical equipment (generators!) of the THW is in Ukraine. In Germany elderly and disabled people are freezing because of Putin! (You could argue that this moral downfall has something to do with left-wing politics, not Putin ...).
That was also the case of hurricane Helene in NC. All the backup generators and gear was sent to Ukraine so it took a long time to get it fixed.
Important business locations and homes with enough cash on hand can operate using their own generators and possibly battery backups. As long as fuel is not rationed they can fill up a can daily and they are in business.
Why is Russia unable to disrupt fuel supply in Ukraine?
Brilliant question. The weak point of the chain is the refinery. It really burns and is difficult to replace.