They're fighting Russia at practically no present cost to themselves, 50 km from Russia's borders.
As for the rest of the rationalizations, look at UST futures. The largest, most sophisticated and most liquid securities market in the world, and they don't seem too bothered.
They're fighting Russia at practically no present cost to themselves, 50 km from Russia's borders.
As for the rest of the rationalizations, look at UST futures. The largest, most sophisticated and most liquid securities market in the world, and they don't seem too bothered.
1) Destruction of the US military's reputation as the dominant military on earth along with literally thousands of US weapons platforms.
2) Destruction of the US' ability to wage economic warfare via sanctions.
3) De dollarization turbocharged
4) Split off of the ROW from US/Western leadership, in particular the Middle East
5) Enormous inflation with 26 months of negative real wages, ended just last month (very possibly temporarily).
But sure, if you ignore all that, practically no cost.
As for the securities market: the US printed literally ten plus trillion dollars over COVID. Why wouldn't the US stock market increase as a result? Weimar stock markets also were up Up UP!
More importantly: stock markets don't supply militaries or people - real world production does. The US had to buy TNT from Japan just a month ago LOL.
I was going to write out an investment strategy if you actually were convinced of all that, but decided not to bother.
The idea that the UST can seamlessly manipulate the Treasury bond market, a market which, taking into account derivatives, is several multiples of world GDP, but cannot affect dedollarization, is a laugh.
Anyway, go buy long dated deep out of the money options if you're so sure. The smart money doesn't think so, although I've made money at times by going against the smart consensus.
If your level of financial understanding is so poor that you don't understand how dedollarization affects the US economy and US government - then I am glad that you didn't waste either your or my time.
But let's look at what you did write.
1) The UST is not the entity that manipulates the Treasury bond market, for one thing - it is the Federal Reserve that does it. And it has done so in a very transparent manner - by inflating the amount of Treasuries it holds. For people who actually understand what is going on - the Fed is very open about this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Note the spike from ~1T to well over 8T in just a bit over a decade. This is not the sign of a healthy economy.
2) You also conflate GDP with Treasuries with cash - betraying yet more ignorance of the difference between economic activity vs. foreign currency debts/assets/central bank reserves/trade liquidity/more vs. cash.
3) You confuse the Federal Reserve's capability to print dollars with the desire of other nations to use dollars. Are you really so ignorant that you don't understand these 2 fields are not actually physically tied together? Russia, for example, completely de-British-Pound-ized from roughly 2017 to 2020. The CBR used to hold something like 10% (AFAIR) of its reserves in GBP and equivalents; that's all gone. In fact, GBP to RUB exchange rates in Russia are now worse than USD to RUB exchange rates even though USD/RUB and EURO/RUB are basically still consistent vs. international ratios. To give an idea - it was ~75 RUB per GBP vs. ~88 RUB per USD vs. ~98 RUB per USD in late June.
But it is more understandable why you are so oblivious to the economic transitions occurring today given the multiple examples of demonstrated ignorance in just a few sentences.
They're fighting Russia at practically no present cost to themselves, 50 km from Russia's borders.
As for the rest of the rationalizations, look at UST futures. The largest, most sophisticated and most liquid securities market in the world, and they don't seem too bothered.
Hmm, let's see:
1) Destruction of the US military's reputation as the dominant military on earth along with literally thousands of US weapons platforms.
2) Destruction of the US' ability to wage economic warfare via sanctions.
3) De dollarization turbocharged
4) Split off of the ROW from US/Western leadership, in particular the Middle East
5) Enormous inflation with 26 months of negative real wages, ended just last month (very possibly temporarily).
But sure, if you ignore all that, practically no cost.
As for the securities market: the US printed literally ten plus trillion dollars over COVID. Why wouldn't the US stock market increase as a result? Weimar stock markets also were up Up UP!
More importantly: stock markets don't supply militaries or people - real world production does. The US had to buy TNT from Japan just a month ago LOL.
I was going to write out an investment strategy if you actually were convinced of all that, but decided not to bother.
The idea that the UST can seamlessly manipulate the Treasury bond market, a market which, taking into account derivatives, is several multiples of world GDP, but cannot affect dedollarization, is a laugh.
Anyway, go buy long dated deep out of the money options if you're so sure. The smart money doesn't think so, although I've made money at times by going against the smart consensus.
If your level of financial understanding is so poor that you don't understand how dedollarization affects the US economy and US government - then I am glad that you didn't waste either your or my time.
But let's look at what you did write.
1) The UST is not the entity that manipulates the Treasury bond market, for one thing - it is the Federal Reserve that does it. And it has done so in a very transparent manner - by inflating the amount of Treasuries it holds. For people who actually understand what is going on - the Fed is very open about this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Note the spike from ~1T to well over 8T in just a bit over a decade. This is not the sign of a healthy economy.
2) You also conflate GDP with Treasuries with cash - betraying yet more ignorance of the difference between economic activity vs. foreign currency debts/assets/central bank reserves/trade liquidity/more vs. cash.
3) You confuse the Federal Reserve's capability to print dollars with the desire of other nations to use dollars. Are you really so ignorant that you don't understand these 2 fields are not actually physically tied together? Russia, for example, completely de-British-Pound-ized from roughly 2017 to 2020. The CBR used to hold something like 10% (AFAIR) of its reserves in GBP and equivalents; that's all gone. In fact, GBP to RUB exchange rates in Russia are now worse than USD to RUB exchange rates even though USD/RUB and EURO/RUB are basically still consistent vs. international ratios. To give an idea - it was ~75 RUB per GBP vs. ~88 RUB per USD vs. ~98 RUB per USD in late June.
But it is more understandable why you are so oblivious to the economic transitions occurring today given the multiple examples of demonstrated ignorance in just a few sentences.
You miss the point. The markets are not nearly as confident as you are.
The markets are irrelevant when it comes to sovereign activity.
That lie is what the Chicago school of economists sold into the American oligarchy starting with Reagan.
You again miss the point. The market is not reflecting your predictions.