Special Report: Russian Forces Breach Kharkov Border

We’ll keep it brief today, just down to the brass tacks of ongoing on-the-ground events.

In accordance with information we’ve been reporting for many months about stirrings in the north, Russia has finally launched an assault on the Kharkov region. But it’s important to clear up a lot of misconceptions about the objectives.

Firstly, the assault was likely smaller than it may have sounded at first—more a recon by fire or advanced scouting party, with most of the damage being done by Russian long range fires and drones. However, it did capture half a dozen small, mostly abandoned settlements on the Ukrainian side of the border:

(Does he know the definition of counter-offensive?)

It’s still not even clear which Russian units precisely participated, as that would tell us a lot about the character and nature of events. However, it appears possible the 1009th Motor Rifle Regiment was involved, which is subordinated to the 11th Army Corps out of Kaliningrad. They are basically Baltic Fleet troops and have been on the Belgorod front since at least early 2023, having fought in the Kharkov defense prior to that in 2022.

Since they’re motorized and not mechanized, what we saw today matched the description, as from the little footage there was, they appeared to use light vehicles only and very little armor, with some BMPs. Also, we know General Lapin is commanding the entire northern front, as I reported last time he gave a check on the units right before this attack occurred.

Opposite them is the Ukrainian 42nd Mechanized Brigade defending. The 42nd posted videos destroying some of the Russian light vehicles, which were actually geolocated to even much deeper than just the border towns that were captured:

The towns on the border were mostly in the gray zone already, so they met light resistance for the most part, though Russian sources have stated the AFU took many casualties and reportedly nearly two dozen POWs, with photos showing some of the captured troops.

The newer Ukrainian fortifications which Zelensky himself inspected north of Kharkov just a month or so ago are said to be much closer to the city itself, and so Russian forces did not have to even go near them yet.

In fact, Ukrainian sources claimed the attack merely consisted of 4-5 battalions:

The fact that this motorized regiment without much heavy gear was used is revealing. It confirms reports that Russia is no where close to introducing its “main force” into the region, which can come much later after Russia has tested the Ukrainian defenses, revealed their positions via recon-by-fire, and then softened them up with air strikes.

Ukrainian military sources report that not only does Russia possibly have a much larger force it intends to introduce later, but another one is gathering in Sumy region as well:

Rumor:

⚡️🇷🇺⚡️IMPORTANT

🔴 It appears that another direction to Sumy will be opened in the next few hours.

The enemy forces are in full combat readiness.

They are dragging the reserves toward the border.

🔴 Meanwhile, our army is working on enemy concentrations.

An assault is planned in the next few hours.

Our DRGs have already started working.

Let us pray for our Boys⚡️🇷🇺⚡️

Remember precisely two months ago I said I had my own personal on the ground sources who said the Russian gov’t was quietly clearing out Russian villages on the Sumy border, with the specific instruction that they have two months time? The article is here, from February 25th, I wrote:

Well, almost exactly two months later, it looks like things are bearing fruit. I believe the current action is both multi-stage and longer term. That means you won’t see a flash-in-the-pan blitzkrieg or thunder-run, but rather a very methodical introduction of forces from the north at key points like turning the screws on a vise.

Russia will likely see how Ukraine reacts to the Kharkov incursion, watch where it deploys its reserves, and act accordingly, with potential Sumy and/or Chernigov contingents to come in much later.

The objective here is not to take Kharkov any time soon. That can happen much, much later in an organic fashion as a byproduct of far more exigent objectives, like cutting off the Kupyansk corridor for the AFU. Little by little, Russia will worm its way in and surround Kharkov, which will be besieged and likely fall very slowly, maybe even by mid 2025 or so. They’re not in a rush to capture it any time soon as doing so is not necessary for the time being, nor would provide any recognizable strategic benefit.

Remember: the objectives right now are to degrade and destroy the AFU manpower, not to “capture territory”—that will all come as a natural secondary byproduct of its own.

In the meantime, Russia is slowly degrading the logistics in the region:

New satellite images confirm the destruction of the bridge over the Seversky-Donets River at the Stary Saltov Dam in the Kharkov region.

Coordinates: 50.07710811888536, 36.81177840025569

This bridge was blown up during the withdrawal of Russian forces from the settlement in 2022, but was restored and used by Ukrainian forces. Now it has been destroyed again, which will significantly affect the Ukrainian army's logistics in this direction, as it will either have to build crossings higher up the river or take a 20-kilometer detour to bypass it.

And another nearby at 50.305850, 37.074000:

In the meantime, Ukrainian commanders wisely note that the northern actions are merely distractions and fixing operations for a reinforced campaign through the center in the Donetsk region:

This is true to an extent. But war is not black and white. The northern incursion is in fact a pinning operation for now, but that’s not all it is. It’s part of the grand boa constrictor or ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy I’ve been describing for over a year now, and more resources will be poured constantly onto it until the trickle develops into a deluge. After that, it will be a fully formed front in its own right and Ukraine will have major problems choosing where to send reserves.

But this may all happen over a longer period of time. Russia could even freeze it here for now, depending how many forces it has itself at its disposal, and just keep AFU busy, or they can put far more pressure. It’s hard to know for sure as estimates vary as to how large the total ‘rear’ force in the Belgorod region really is, but some claim there’s a “hidden” force as large as 100-150k waiting to be pushed in and turned into a full-fledged mass operation.

▪️"Russia does not have the resources to reach Kharkov"

“They can only aggravate the situation on the border,” Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, reassures Ukrainians.

For now, Ukrainian officials remain ‘confident’ it’s not much, though of course that could just be a facade of strength, hoping to keep morale from crashing.

In the meantime, the Avdeevka-Ocheretino axis is deteriorating fast, which is precisely why Russia decided to “turn the screws” some more:

‼️UKRAINIAN POST‼️

Our source in the General Staff said that the situation in the Avdeevka direction continues to deteriorate, we will be forced to leave three settlements in the coming days so as not to fall into a tactical encirclement. The enemy continues to create a bridgehead that will be used for an operation to encircle the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping in Toretsk and Niu-York.

And by the way, today new gains were made on the Kupyansk front toward the town Pishchane, which reinforces the idea that soon this front may get more activated in accordance with the northern breach.

ISW has called the gains thus far tactically ‘significant’:

NEW: Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. This is likely the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine.

Some on the UA side are pointing to the fact that this was well known in advance, with Ukraine having good recon and intel on Russian force dispositions and general objective trajectories. This is meant to underline that Ukraine is in control, as Russia has no ‘element of surprise’.

The problem with this thinking is all modern warfare, we now know, is no longer contingent on element of surprise. Russia knows that Ukraine knows, and Ukraine knows that Russia knows that Ukraine knows. It’s that type of situation—and it doesn’t matter. Despite advance warning and accurate intel, Ukraine can do nothing about the events that are soon to come. This is a chess match and a numbers game; you can “know” full well the constrictor is tightening over your chest, but there will be little you can do about it. Ukraine will lack the means to respond to the constant swell of Russian troops and armaments on every single frontline, which will only stretch longer and longer as Russia potentially introduces new breaches into Sumy, Chernigov, and perhaps even elsewhere—some Russian channels are still trading rumors of a potential push from Belarus into Kiev region as eventual part of the now initiated cascade.

So yes, Ukraine will know full well what Russia is doing—but this by no means allows them to have the situation “under control”. They can send their reserves to Kharkov, then they’ll get run through in the Pokrovsk direction. Should they choose to ‘split the difference’ and go half and half, then they’ll just get worn down and overrun in both directions; it’s really that simple. Recall all the quotes from Ukrainian officers I recently posted wherein they admitted they don’t have the mobility to match Russian ‘whack-a-mole’ tactics. Russia can transfer units from one region to another and mesmerize the AFU with the ‘thousand cuts’ from every angle, and Ukraine simply doesn’t have the logistical infrastructure to keep up plugging each hole. The longer the front stretches, the worse this issue becomes.

All in all, things are shaping up right on schedule. It seems the Spring offensives are starting just as we all thought, and there’s good chance they’re timed to put maximum pressure on Zelensky who will be in political peril in only a matter of days/weeks, once his legitimacy runs out at the end of the month.

As a final note, contrary to early reports, the Russian MOD has not even officially acknowledged nor announced this Kharkov assault in any way whatsoever, which means this is clearly meant to be downplayed for now and is not even close to the main push. It is further proof that this is just the early recon effort and the question still remains whether a far larger push will be made soon, or instead a more low key, gradual buildup and long range fires destruction to keep the AFU busy here.

We’ll keep monitoring the situation.

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