Wrong, in every way. Do you even have a clue what is going on??
Western strategy WAS:
1. Arm and train Ukraine to Western standards.
2. Impose crushing financial sanctions on Russia.
3. Watch as superior Western arms and training forced Russia to send cannon fodder to war, to be shredded by superior Western arms and tactics.
4. Laugh, as Russia falls into abject poverty, due to lack of finances.
5. Rub hands in glee, as Putin is overthrown by starving Muscovites.
6. Walk into Moscow, behind triumphant Ukrainian army, to divide Russia into many delectable, corrupt, bite size pieces.
What the Western strategy RESULTED IN:
1. Russia set the tactics and style of war, to suit itself.
2. Western corporations lost all their Russian investments, including factories and franchises.
3. Western weapons (including long range missiles) and tactics, proven against goat herders, failed in action against a peer force, which then became a superior one.
4 Russia pivoted, financially and strategically, to the East, laughing at the sanctions.
5. Putin re-elected by a larger margin.
6. Russia grinds West, stronger and more confident in every way.
"The West is also highly motivated and this war is very cheap for them."
LOL.
The general population of the West does NOT want to fight ANY war.
Western governments are going into stupid amounts of debt, just to provide the ILLUSION of helping Ukraine, they CAN'T afford to ACTUALLY help, either politically or financially.
Scintillas add up, and I learned a tidbit or two reading the comments here today. That Trump was the one who likely ratted out Epstein to the FBI. It may be why Trump is getting rather retentive over the Epstein file trove.
It may also explain why Trump allowed Comey to remain as FBI head so long, despite their enmity. Better to let sleeping dogs lie.
If true, that Trump is a snitch, Trump is more of a Whitey Bulger type than a John Gotti.
The Teflon on orange Don turns out to be made by coppertone.
The rumours of a massive RF offensive coming from the UKR side are just managing expectations. If the next month continues to be business as usual - attrition with no big arrow offensives - then Ukraine will claim a great PR victory, as usual.
Maybe the RF will do something dramatic, but there is no need to do so. Every month the Russian army gets bigger and stronger and Ukraine gets weaker by being unable to replace losses.
I'm not wanting to sound contrary Cheryl, but I see the Weather becoming something of a factor, the times they are a changing as Bob Dylan said. First week of September nearly over, day length shortening, it's getting cooler and damper in the mornings, misty too in those damp fields. This may be a good time to get stuff done, a window of opportunity if you like before they hit Autumn, and it's downhill from there.
What is autumn? You probably just made that term up. What does it mean? Starting in November, the fighters will be demanding this chaotic change, if only to avoid turning into ice cubes.
I think with HAARP, Geo-engineering, Weather modification and whatever other Devilish tools they possess Steghorn, they can create whatever Season they want. Whatever; when the leaves drop, hiding in treelines and copses will be of no use. Kind regards.
Climate Change got rid of winter, too. The only season left is summer, more accurately described as "Hell on Earth," where temperatures stay in the 90s for day after day, and it never rains, where your utility bills quadruple from running the air conditioner day and night for months on end.
If you analyze events carefully, you will see that the Russians are most effective in winter. In autumn and winter, except in cases of rain and strong winds, drones have the highest number of targets; the foliage of trees and tall crops are no longer visible, their natural camouflage disappearing. And then, Russia's second objective is to kill NATO by draining its arsenals and ruining its members.
You're not quite there yet. We have to go back to Surovikin's statements: we let them come and destroy them, that's what happens every day. Of course, the Russians are advancing, but they are forced to do so when there is nothing left in front of them. The Russians are playing military brick-breaker games: they break down the wall and then advance to the next one. The main thing is to break down the walls, not to advance in great strides, and when the last wall is knocked down, they will be walking around, covering dozens of kilometers a day.
Rainy season will be there in a week or two. Maybe some large operational grabs (Pokrovsk, Kupiansk) before the rains to hold until the ground dries enough to begin a sizable winter campaign.
Exactamundo! Why should Russia redeploy in order to amass forces? Why should Russia initiate any major offensive in any direction? We all know that such changes are absurd, because Russia's current go-slow strategy is absolutely perfect. Other than minor tactical tweaks, no changes are necessary. It works for all battlefield situations in Ukraine, for all time, to deliver all its political goals forever. It's utterly stupid, nay useless to even consider discussing the topic. And if anyone tries, they should be laughed out of making any further comments, since they have no serious ideas that are worthwhile bringing to the discussion.
Let's remind ourselves, it's a wonderful thing that Russia has decided to go slow with its military strategy, otherwise the west would have time to overcome its internal problems and ramp up its weapons industries, which of course is impossible. Russia taking over Odessa now would be an even greater mistake, since that would give Russia time to consolidate its overall military posture in order to best prepare for western attacks outside of Ukraine, which also will never, ever happen. Obviously Russia owns the flow of time and the march of history, along with knowing exactly what its enemies will do in the future.
If Russia doesn't take Odessa, it will have a base there and control it, at the risk of seeing NATO set up there. And then, this base will be just a stone's throw from NATO's in Romania and will cool the ardor of the West
"As more time goes on, the shallow nature of Trump’s Alaska spectacle is revealed in its entirety. As we had imagined, nothing real was achieved, and everything was done merely for PR glitz and fleeting headline bait."
I predicted that even before the Alaska spectacle started, as readers of my substack know very well. But, let's be honest, you do not need a crystal ball for that, you just need to stop taking Trump's words at face value and treating everything that comes from his filthy mouth as what it is: pure BS, as the video at the end of this article shows.
That indeed is what the europeans would like to believe. As for Russia, there is no point in simply blitzing its way to territorial acquisition it will indeed have to fight forever to hold. The steady attrition of all western support including the demise of the current european bloc of Russia-phobe leaders by their own astonishingly inept hands, and the obliteration of all native Ukrainian hostile resource, is the way to go. It is the way to ensure a peaceful assimilation of f.Ukraine into the RF.
For those with no foresight or blinkered by their own desires, it is called the long game, and Putin has been playing it for a very long time.
"As for Russia, there is no point in simply blitzing its way to territorial acquisition it will indeed have to fight forever to hold."
This is another one of those copes. Insurgency is a young man's game. Compare the median ages in Yemen, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Vietnam with the median age in Ukraine.
Thoroughness has nothing to do with it. And I realize that most here are continually coming up with cope, excuses, retcon, pos-hoc rationalizations, etc..
What do we notice here? The blue-red separation between the southwest and the rest is well-known. But there are important nuances. Such as Kherson, which is the lightest blue in color in all of the southeast. Even some districts in otherwise Banderized regions (Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernigov) voted for Yanukovich more than Kherson did. Which matches with non-systematic observations that Kherson was the least pro-Russian place in the southeast.
Yet Russia took it largely without a fight and there has been no significant insurgency to speak of there, not even across the river until the shameful retreat three years ago (yes, it has been three years, and no effort whatsoever has been made to retrieve a regional capital of the Russian Federation),
And what there has been in terms of sabotage acts and terrorism would not have happened had the SBU and GUR been physically destroyed (why have they largely been left untouched four years into this is one of those questions we go back to again and again and again, with no answers) and even less so had the rest of Ukraine been similarly placed under direct Russian control.
This is all so obvious and truistic.
Something else that is self-evident is that the more of the enemy's population you directly control, the fewer soldiers they can send to fight you directly. It is so self-evident that it has been a core military objective ever since there was organized warfare on this planet many thousands of years ago. Just the act of goodwill gestures from around April 1st 2022 added some at least 6-7 million people to the available to the Kiev regime press-ganging pool, plus it freed up their logistics between Kiev and Kharkov. Because at one point Kiev was blockaded (3 million people), Chernigov and Sumy were sieged (another couple million), Kharkov was largely blockaded too, etc.
Would the war of attrition been easier without the goodwill gestures or with them?
There has been and there will be no adequate answers from the Putin fanboys.
Precisely this^^^^. The correct way to accomplish the task is to be thorough, and rushing in while biting off more than can be comfortably digested is foolish. Thus the RF military does not do so…. Simple. But yeah, we can sit back and watch the Doom & concern Troll roll out the same old crap as reality continuously punches them in the face….
Its not that Russia does not want to have large arrow offensives - they can't do them without massive losses. Everything is being watched to the point where most Russia breakthroughs are done inside gas pipelines. Any troop concentration above ground is seen and attacked. You only need a few FPV drones and a couple accurate arty rounds to stop an large armored column before it gets to the contact line; hence the 3-man moped teams. That takes way too much time.
My fear is the slow pace - this will take years more still at present pace, will usher in some back swan that the RF did not see. Expect more spider web attacks and eventually Ukraine will declare they have a crude nuke. Once Ukraine declares they have one or more bombs what is Russia's strategy then? I would be surprised if Ukraine does not already have the material and is enriching it someplace as I type this.
Russia had a small window of opportunity to win under these rules of engagement in 2022, and it missed it in classical Putin fashion.
After that it had to change the rules of engagement and directly go after NATO ISR and weapon supplies. That had to be done before the West was given a chance to get so involved in this that it became existential for them too. Which, again in classical Putin fashion, he fumbled the ball on in a catastrophic way.
Ukraine wants a meeting. I'm ready. Come. We will create working conditions and security. - Putin.
"The best place for negotiations is the capital of the Russian Federation."
Yanukovych shed tears when he learned about the economic consequences of Ukraine's EU accession. - Putin.
Putin said he "didn't see much point in direct contacts with Zelensky, since he couldn't sign anything that would have existed, but he was ready for it."
He believed that "it will now be impossible to reach an agreement with Zelensky on key issues."
Putin said Russia could attack NATO troops if they appeared on Ukrainian territory.
"NATO troops would be legitimate targets for the Russian army if they appeared in Ukraine. Once peace is achieved in Ukraine, there will be no need to station Western troops there," Putin said.
"Security guarantees should apply to both Russia and Ukraine, and Russia will respect them," and Russia will "fully comply with the peace agreements on Ukraine once they are reached."
Putin noted that he had not yet called Trump after the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Europe.
I'd say that NATO got away with bombing Serbia in 1999. But 26yrs later a lot of people are talking about it. And I mean a lot lot. NATO hasn't gotten away with shit.
The correct pronouns is former and future Yugoslavia. China's Military parade has a calming effect on me to the point I haven't yelled at anyone in three days time and had a constructive conversation on-line. Speaking of "somewhat unhinged " Slavic women, it is an experience.
I wouldn't say that Serbia bombing is something they got away with. There was a story of Russian special forces at the airport and gallant nato occupying forces backing up just for that moment in history. Since none of these men have a telegram channel to "speak the truth" on the most traumatizing anniversaries it is, well, it might be just a feel good story after all.
The parade - is a thing of beauty, harmony, synchrony and a reminder that men and women who fought in WWII are among us due to their superb genetic make up.
Plus, 1.4 billion people cannot be on the wrong side of history.
Empty statements about red lines combined with a very weak diplomatic posture.
Zelensky has to be be killed, now, in the most demonstrative way possible, not invited to any kind of talks. How many thousands of Russians has that man directly murdered?
Then we have the "legitimate targets" part. Notice what he does not say -- he mentions nothing about strikes on the countries that send those soldiers.
So NATO can move into Ukraine and start firing into Russia from there, but NATO territory will remain perfectly safe from Russian retaliation. What is there to lose then?
The historical decline of the Roman Empire is a good example by the time Rome was sacked it's power had shifted from focussed Military conquest and expansionism to a religious one under the Papist Roman Catholic Church and the ensuing schisms, that could be argued are ongoing today. Didn't hear Pope Frankie calling for Peace in fact he didn't object to Cyril? the head of the Orthodox church being sanctioned, nor to the theft of several valuable Icons, or were they removed for safekeeping ? As for Pope Bob we've not heard a squeak.
One thing for sure is that if Frankie got commission from Pfizer for being their best salesman ever ("it is the duty of all Catholics everywhere to accept the vaccine") he didn't get much chance to spend it !
Actually the Roman empire's population sickened through malaria and various excesses, and it declined into relying on mercenaries to fight its battles, some time before the Holy Roman Empire reached an apogee.
Don't tell Belisarius. He wouldn't have reconquered Africa and Italy with a fundamentally mercenary army if he'd known. And Julius Caesar had a lot of Socii in his auxilia back before Jesus.
The fall of the Western Roman empire can be attributed to many things. Declining population due to disease, civil wars, external pressure, social inequality.
And it's important to try to highlight why the West fell and the East didn't, since they faced very similar challenges.
I think silence is the only option for Pope Leo at this point. The fact is the Russian SMO is the only just war waged in a very long time anywhere on the planet. The best a globalist Pope can do is keep his modernist mouth shut...
Do not forget- the point of the Alaska performance was simply to get Trump off the tariffs-sanctions hook he had hung himself on. It cost Putin nothing to help him out here and the PR win was all Putin's as the mouth-foaming response of european leaders demonstrated so well.
Also, Trump dropped talking about the ceasefire first, negotiate later option, which would have led inevitably to a frozen conflict. But yes, the results of this overhyped meeting were very modest.
Putin has hit two homers recently, the Alaska summit and the Shanghai Cooperative meeting. Trump's rant on TS was priceless, "you guys are conspiring!". Colbert's reaction to Trump's rant in his monologue was hilarious.
What PR stunts Putin engaged in is entirely irrelevant, the situation on the ground is what matters, and it is not at all pretty.
It's September 2025.
The last time any sizable settlement was taken by the Russian army was in late 2024, the Sumy buffer zone operation ran into a brick wall the same way the Volchansk fiasco from May 2024 did, i.e. the war is still not going in the right direction at all.
Sure, attrition is non-linear, etc. But you would expect the AFU to be crumbling at least a little bit, not to be holding defense more effectively than it did at this time last year.
P.S. Alaska was actually a huge own goal if you stop slurping on Putin's shriveled testicles and look at the situation objectively. Right as the enemy is firing GMLRS missiles 50-100 km into your territory and is coordinating long-range light cruise missile strikes all the way to the Urals, and right after they attacked your strategic nuclear forces, you go visit the enemy on his own turf and hug and behave friendly with him. What kind of message does that send to the world and internally? A hugely demoralizing one for the military (i.e. they and the country will be betrayed once again for the benefit of Russian oligarchs) and a message of pathetic weakness for the rest of the world.
Putin has only one viable position here, which is to come out and say that if Trump wants to be friends, he needs to immediately end all US weapon supplies and intelligence sharing and he has to hand over all the people responsible for starting the war to Russia, both politicians and Western oligarchs, where those people will be publicly tortured and killed in a particularly gruesome way in order to re-establish deterrence. If Trump does not do that, he will be considered an enemy, the US will be phyiscally removed from Eurasia, and the people responsible for starting the war will be killed with missile strikes, no matter where they are located, including in the US itself.
Indeed, it was a spectacle to enjoy: Europe’s so-called “leaders” squashed into kiddie chairs, craning their necks like schoolchildren before the headmaster, desperate to flatter Trump while he lorded over them from behind his desk. And just imagine their faces when they compared that pitiful scene to Putin’s red-carpet welcome in Alaska, military escort and all, the whole imperial pageantry. The contrast wasn’t just telling, it was downright humiliating for the vassals begging to be included. Now what have they got, they get to buy weapons from the US while destroying their own economies, caring nothing for their own populance.
WEF branded Globalists understand there are too many Europeans. To them, Europe is a spot on a map, not the home of the Renaissance.
Elitist Europeans have centuries of practice in the arts of grovelling and kissing royalty's ass. It's what they love. Get buggered and then get paid. Bunch of prostitutes.
The WEF prefers a global population of 500 million.
Somehow NATO skipped "beating the shit" out of Russia. Preferring to let the Banderans die.
How's that Red Sea operation going against the Houthi?
Britain and France couldn't even use their air power to defeat Khadaffi without the US needing to supply them with everything except the aircraft and the pilots. That was in 2011. NATO hasn't gotten stronger since.
Said the same in the comments of the article before the summit.
Like it or lump it, this is the TACO administration 🌮 and anyone that refuses to understand that is just going to be led by the nose by morons for 4 years. 🌮🧐🤬
I think the whole point of the meeting was for that 10 minutes that Trump and Putin were alone in the car. So many succubus' on both sides, so many people in power with agendas it was a good sign that they could talk off the record for 10mins at least.
You can see some of the sympathy that Putin has for Trump, so maybe Trump said privately he is trying but so many in US gov want conflict, which could buy him some time. Now I don't think Don can play 4d chess but if you were Trump and had 10 min alone with Putin without the cameras what would you say?
Russia won't stop the SMO until Ukraine meets its rather modest expectations.
Neither side is compromising. That's great.
The inevitable trajectory of this equation is either an eventual Ukrainian capitulation or the stage is set for a greater war if Europe decides to reinforce Ukraine before it topples over.
If Ukraine does not cede to Russia's unshakable demands, it will capitulate without reinforcements. That puts a lot of pressure on Europe to decide either to let Ukraine fall or to link up with it before it's too late. But Europe is far from ready for war.
Hence, as long as Russia doesn't compromise and keeps fighting, it will inevitably end up defeating Ukraine even though that wasn't planned.
Sometimes, in life, the best things are those that are unplanned.
I'd like to see Ukraine soundly defeated militarily, rather than just losing four oblasts.
Russia will not invade Europe, unfortunately. Sadly, as the East now understands how to properly develop a well-functioning economy, knowledge actively lost in the West since neoliberalism and the worship of private greed and neofeudalism.
Doesn't matter what Europe bleats, Russia is not going to spend Russian blood to once again liberate ungrateful asseholes from fascism.
You don’t have to invade Western Europe to defeat them… They are self-harming every day they tie their futures on the Ukrainian anchor, headed straight to the bottom like the Heart of the Ocean in Titanic… Yet another UK failure 😂
Although I know Russia isn't going to take all of the Banderan territories, it would be nice to see the RF, or any other army, burn down and then salt the earth where that travesty of "The Last Supper" at the opening ceremony for the Summer Games occurred last year.
Denis, the Russian goals were never restricted to the 4 oblasts. They also included demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine as well as forcing neutrality (no NATO or any European forces in the country). Yes, the only territorial goals were indeed the full capture of the 4 oblasts, but it should never be forgotten that there were other goals as well.
>Yes, the only territorial goals were indeed the full capture of the 4 oblasts, but it should never be forgotten that there were other goals as well.
One has to be an absolute moron to believe that.
You just claimed that Putin went in with the goal of annexing the 4 oblasts. Those particular 4 oblasts and no other.
Which is so idiotic I don't know where to even start.
These four oblasts ended up the (quite historically revisionist) "goals" when the initial operation was botched thanks to sabotage from the Kremlin and Nikolaev (and thus Odessa) was not taken, Kharkov was a complete fiasco, and even though Chernigov was encircled and Sumy could have easily been taken, the Kremlin ordered a retreat.
Under more competent leadership the whole left bank plus Nikolaev and Odessa would have been Russian by April 1st 2022. But they weren't.
And then Putin refused to mobilize while the enemy was regrouping and rearming, the Kharkov fiasco of September 2022 happened, and he had to salvage the situation somehow, thus the formal annexations of those four regions.
However, he still refused to properly mobilize, and continues to do so to this day, and he also refused to strike anything that would make a difference and collapse the AFU, so those four oblasts are all that is on the menu due to these self-imposed (for what reasons?) constraints.
But claiming that they were to goal of the SMO can only come from someone who is so deep into Putin fanboyism to be completely beyond any hope for recovery.
The sole real reason the SMO started was the imminent prospect of US missiles being situated in Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov. Well, guess what -- none of those regions are among the "4 oblasts" and US missiles are situated there, did fire into Russia, and will be firing a lot more in the near future. So much for goals and accomplishing them...
Also, you might recall that you and I have discussed these matters "sincerely" on multiple occasions - occasions I considered to be honest attempts at coming to a common understanding. This is not true with our concern troll - I tried many times until I realised that he was not really an honest broker but had an agenda. So I refuse to cooperate by feeding him.
I agree, and well said, Mikey. GM has an exceptionally detailed understanding of the matter in question. He's a great source of information, which opposes the dominant narrative, bringing a new light on things. Truth should reign above all else, no matter what hole you find it in.
"GM has an exceptionally detailed understanding of the matter in question."
As do Hasbara propagandists who are paid to disseminate "truth", not with the objective of actually arriving at truth through dialogue but to instill doubt in the target audience. This is also true of "concern trolls" like GM who fake "concern" for Russia but in reality their purpose is to provide arguments to cause doubts among the population, thus undermining the government and its stated objectives. I refuse to participate in such intercourse. If you want to, fine. It serves his purposes well.
What I like and respect about you, Victor, is your uncompromising sense of loyalty towards that which you believe in. I don't agree with several things GM says, but I do see some parallels with what other writers say. So I try to balance conflicting viewpoints until I get enough evidence to tilt my view one way or the other. Grr is correct that my views are "wobbly" as I try to make sense of two or more conflicting ideas to get to the truth. So I can agree with you or GM, or anyone else at the same time or not. But what is common among all of us is our desire for Russia to be able to live at peace, free of Western nefarious intent upon it. So, in the end, we're all on the same side with opposing views on how to get there.
Re: "I'd like to see Ukraine soundly defeated militarily, rather than just losing four oblasts. It's the best option."
What do you mean? That Russia conquering the entire Ukraine is a possible outcome? Erased from the map, and fully assimilated into "Sovietzky rasee"? :). Or this not the objective, because it would violate the original SMO's objective?
If it takes that, then yes. However Russia does not want the Banderite Western regions. Let them be taken back by Poland, Hungary, etc or just leave them to rot.
That's right, Western Ukraine, with its Nazis fleeing there, Azov, etc.
You can safely put the EU in the basket as a rotten fascist egg.
It would cause major problems for the EU, and first and foremost for Poland, with a large portion of the remaining Nazis likely to disappear towards Germany...with all their heavy weapons, these experienced fighters would likely pose a major problem for ANY leftist. But their police would certainly need a lot of armored vehicles, and an anti-aircraft weapon fits in any trunk. Just wait until something falls from the sky in Berlin, Warsaw, or Paris/London.
Because one thing is certain: the rest of Western Ukraine will be a problem for the club of the "willing," the willing failures.
Not forgetting the main instigators the Empire of Lies. The two muppet US senators going overseas to monger for war on nuclear powers. In 2014 two Republican senators visited Ukraine John McCain and Lindsey, Graham. Here's what they said
Lindsey!: Your fight is our fight! 2017 will be the year of offense! All of us will go back to Washington and we will push the case against Russia. Enough of Russian aggression! It is time for them to pay a heavier price!
McCain: I believe you will win! I am convinced you will win, and we will do everything we can to provide you with what you need to win.
Why would western Ukraine surrender? Its a gift, not a failure. A platform to kinetically attack Russia! They know Putin does not have the stomach to take every part of Ukraine so what is left will fight forever launching terror attacks and drones into Russia for as long as they can.
Western arms companies want to test new gear, intelligence agencies want to try new tricks and banks still want to launder money.
Why should Ukraine surrender - they should be crash-diving their nuke program or perhaps the west will assist them to get a few nukes to force Russia to first-strike or negotiate.
I have yet to read a post giving a compelling reason why Ukraine should capitulate even after losing all land east of the Dnieper. They will make a new army, be given money to survive as long as they keep Russia busy. In the west's eyes every Ukrainian that dies is one less Russian. What exactly is this compelling reason why Ukraine will stop the war when the west wants them to kill each other?
I am rooting for Russia, but its like cheering for your left-handed boxer who decides not to use his left hand as he is just so confident he will win; tough to watch.
I believe Russia will continue the operation until what you suggest is impossible for the Ukrainians and Europe to accomplish. Even if they take the South and the East, they will not ever leave what remains of Ukraine in a position to rebuild its forces, maintain a nazi presence and/or allow European troops to base their operations in the country - whatever that takes.
The Russians will not have to occupy Western Ukraine to achieve that - they can force a regime change, create a temporary civilian/military governing junta to manage the demilitarisation/denazification process and prepare for elections of a Russia-friendly, neutral government.
There is more than one option to gain their objectives without the necessity of a military occupation.
Reduced to a marginal EU-dependent welfare zone, populated by the last remnants of Banderites and embittered amputees, clinging to a landlocked rump state, left only with fading memories of foxholes now buried with their dead & rotting Nazi flags & paraphernalia in the old Donbas front.
It won't happen. They sold their economy to the Western oligarchs. The day the war ends it will be flooded with 3rd world immigrants to help pillage the country...and the dreams of the Banderites will die
Leaving them to rot is what Russia did to Idlib province in Syria. We can see how that turned out. This time, that rump of Ukraine will continue to launch drones and terrorize people until they are stopped. They will not surrender and what if one day they announce they have produced a crude nuke - would Russia still attempt to take all of Ukraine? Russia thinks they have all the time in the world - they do not.
Logic tells us that Russia will want to demilitarize all of today's Ukraine but not hold the whole territory. The Galician Banderite heartlands full of fanatical "nationalists" would be too costly for Russia to occupy and police. Rather Russia will let those areas rot economically and leave it to the Poles and EU to sort out. The ethno fascist dreams of greater Galicia aka "Ukraine" will no longer be Russias problem.
Let the West have it, so they can pretend they won because "Ukraine survived".
And let it join the EU, which would absolutely tank Von Der Leyen's empire.
Despite being the root cause of this fiasco, the US is going to walk away relatively Scot free. Unless you count losing NATO as an alliance, which I personally do.
For these and other reasons...an SMO without the capture of Odessa is a lost SMO in the minds of the Russian population.
And an Odessa under NATO influence will ignite a real war, because Turkey will, or MUST, allow foreign warships to pass through the Bosporus or withdraw from NATO.
The "little boy" has the biggest weapon NATO to Greece in his hand.
But the little boy dreams of a great empire, whose wish is currently occupied by the teacher's favorite (USA) class leader, Israel. The leader probably knows a few things that could be dangerous for the teacher, even if they are the teacher's roommates in the palace of power.
Without Russia's resources and raw materials, including steel, Erdogan's heavy industry would be at an END, or rather, HE would be completely dependent on the West (EU) in many ways. One of the reasons why he smiles at Putin and at the same time tries to pee on his leg...but usually ends up hitting himself.
But even Erdogan will find an end, with luck—a PURELY biological one.
People trust Erdogan as much as they trust Trump. He's a snake and his behaviour has caught up with him. I'd loved to see him ousted and replaced by a leader who takes Turkey out of NATO
I'd like to see what Erdoğan will do now the Zionists have made it plain they've got their eyes on Northern Cyprus. Apparently they're alleging that the enclave is bristling with Iranian and Hamas terrorists.
Exactly. Odessa is the absolute key. If it stays in Ukrainian (translation: Nato) hands, it will be a base for dirty tricks against Russia forever more. The Black Sea must become a Russian lake.
That's why Peskov again described Odessa as a predominantly Russian nation in his statement to journalists last week.
It's possibly a trick to get Ukraine to the point where its reserves are running low and it has to withdraw troops from the Odessa area to the front. And partisan activity in the WDA is increasing, as can be seen from the missile targets. The catacombs could become a problem, as could the Nazis' rage, which would rather destroy everything than lose, a la 1945.
I believe the latter is the main reason holding the Russians back.
Because for almost 1.5 years, the Russians have been ONLY about 45 km from Odessa as the crow flies, without advancing any further!
Totally agree, Steg. How Putin gets there is the question, it seems to me. Military occupation of Odessa will be (violently) opposed by rump Ukraine and NATO and will take Russia some considerable time and lives to accomplish. It seems inconceivable (to me) that rump Ukraine and NATO would ever cede Odessa (and thus the entire Black Sea) to Russia in a peace agreement.
The Russians have been only 45 km as the crow flies from Odessa since around 2023, without moving a single step further.
But Sylenski has to move more and more troops to the front line; one just has to wait until he has to withdraw the most combat-ready troops from the Odessa area...
Because those reserves are still there and on the border with Belarus; until now, Sylenski couldn't and wasn't allowed to deploy these troops, which are so urgently needed at the front.
But Russia is using this time until HE has to, or the surrender comes first? Is Russia using the time and destroying as many bases around Odessa as possible, AND the partisans are getting stronger and possibly taking care of the catacombs where these troops have their bases so far. These catacombs are over 35 km long beneath the city, but only about 30% are known, which means that it is very likely that the partisans have found or will find an as yet unknown entrance. Think of the pipeline that was used. The Russians certainly did not miss the Odessa problem!
Turkey has not really been an enemy to Russia because Russia supplies it with all of its iron ore, that in turn underpins Turkey's heavy industry, the thing that has made Turkey a formidable modern country.
It helps that Turkey is so dependent on Russia because they're in possession of the straights that guard the entrance to the sea.
Despite being in NATO, Turkey has kept NATO gunboats out of the sea, while Russia can send it's smaller corvettes in via canals.
The other two countries have small Black Sea coastlines. Russia's coastline, if it landlocked Ukraine, would be over half of the sea area.
Plus just ask Washington why it tried to secretly lease from Ukraine the port of Sevastopol back in 2014, out from under Russia.
IMHO this is REALLY what caused Russia to annex Crimea, to keep it out of Washington's hands.
Good question, but I think R. Baker, above/below, has the right answer. FWIW, with Turkish dependence on Russia and if all of Sevastopol, the rest of Crimea, and Odessa are controlled by Russia, I think the overwhelming balance of power shifts to Russia. It also takes Ukraine out of the game. Happy to hear the counter.
Russia wants a negotiated settlement to meet its demands. The demands are simple enough. Revert Ukraine back to the internationally developed conditions of independence which were enshrined in the constitution up until the 2014 NATO organized coup.
Failing that. Russia will ensure the previously constitutionally guaranteed rights for the Russian speaking areas by taking over governing those parts of Ukraine and making the rest of the country ungovernable.
Of course, NATO could just give up on the Ukraine project and negotiate the terms of what will happen, even if they don't like it.
Actually, it is a lot more than one hundred billion. The latest move is to take the three hundred billion in sequestered Russian assets stored in western banks and turn them over to Zelenskty for him to distribute. As he sees fit since all such funds are unaudited.
The problem with that plan is Russia will take it's pound of flesh out of Ukraine. Good-bye, Odessa. And if the three insignificant Baltic nations need to be reorganized NATO isn't going to go to war to defend Katja Kallas.
>Russia wants a negotiated settlement to meet its demands.
There can be no such thing.
The minimal acceptable for Russia condition is total erasure of Ukrainian statehood and complete de-Ukrainization of the territory.
Who in Ukraine or the West will agree to that?
Nobody, ever.
An obvious corollary: if the Kremlin is not demanding that and is not preparing to make it happen by force, then in the Kremlin they are some combination of idiots and traitors. Not clear what proportions exactly and which is worse.
Basically Russia wants Ukraine to return to the constitutional order and statehood it had after being granted independence. You know......when it had the status of an independent state (although a failed one but that's just how Ukraine rolls).
Of course, after the 2014 revolution it lost that status is now a self destructing toy of the western powers.
Absolutely correct. Ukraine is now fundamentally anti Russian. That's why the Russian speaking territories are now no longer part of Ukraine. And that's why Russia feels it has to permanently eliminate Ukraine as a military threat. Which includes making NATO forces in Ukraine such a hot potato that it won't even seriously consider a presence there.
Armstrong spent 8 years in prison in NYC for not handing over his code to the CIA/Mossad. He was accused of contempt of court. He was only released when his case went to the Supreme Court.
His articles avoid mentioning Israel or Jews for obvious reasons. But he mentions Neocons a lot. Same thing.
sorry about that, didn't know he'd been to jail! I read some of his articles a while back, absolutely amazing. Isr*el is the US' proxy in the ME, while the US is beholden to Empire. a vicious tree-some.
I can't assure you that Ukraine would never admit being defeated. Even as a "the last Ukrainian" would be dying in the "last trench," his last dying breath will be, "перемога"
A trivial point, but why do so many of these Euro-globalists have names that are not common to their original nations: what kind of Polish name is "Tusk" and how Finnish is "Stubb". Same with "Macron" and "Starmer". Almost as if they are aliens.
Stubb is an old Swedish, noble, name. His father was born in what now is Russia. Have followed him and he is well-educated, speaks english and german fluent and has been nurtured to be Finlands President as the stepping stone to a more global position.
Good point, it's likely they are 'aliens', or their grandparents/ family origins were. Boris Johnson's father's father was a Circassian of Caucasus origins of Turkish nationality, immigrating to London from Turkey around 1907 or so. I dare say the family name was not "Johnson", it was an assumed name.
Starmer's name is likely patrilineally German. There was a sizable German immigration to London from the Palatinate area of Germany in the 1720-1730's period. Plus the early Saxeburg -Gota dynasty (king Georges I-III) ruled over not just Britain but parts of Germany (incl Hesse).
A 27 or so European collection of "the willing" just got through "agreeing" to send troops to Ukraine. Effectively this is EU-NATO, working for cash off the books.
Macron just notified the French medical establishment to "get ready" in 2026 for mass French casualties.
Macron's unaware that in the Ukraine theater, there are not tidy ambulance services on the front. If you get wounded there and cannot walk out, you're toast. The Fellows that come to evacuate you in turn need evacuation.
Picture instead gimletted frogs in dim lit Ukrainian mud puddles.
Like Jesse Ventura said in the movie "Predator": "you lose it here you're in a world of hurt".
Thankfully, Macron is still under that powerful Jean Bridgette Trogneaux cuffing that always arrives just in time to offer a helping pimp hand to adjust and rebalance poor little Emmanuel.
Well said, R.Baker. European incompetent leaders will blame their failed and broken economy on Russia and rally the citizens to war based on false premises. In reality, the only threat Europeans have is from their own inept and corrupt leaders, the enemy within.
The West cannot stop Ukraine toppling over, that's just not possible. Your "inevitable trajectory" is wrong. The simple fact is that in the next 3-4 months Ukraine will have lost. The only thing that can change that outcome is if Russia itself decides to change their plans and that's extremely unlikely.
Europe is impotent, it has not the weapons, manpower or money to make any real difference.
Everyone knows that europeans are effete metrosexuals, nonces and ponces so effeminate that they make Liberace look like Mike Tyson. Not to mention, old.
However, european strategy since 1917 has been to get Americans to do their fighting for them.
That was ever always only the real plan here. What europeans lack in military power, they more than make up for in groveling and whispering campaigns.
I don't think they will succeed this time. America will back away from direct action in Ukraine, leaving it solely in European hands that purchase their weapons from US MIC. As Russia has won, America has no more use for Ukraine except as a profits generator for its MIC.
At every stage of this war, se have been duly reassured that the West is bluffing that escalation is reckless, unpopular, suicidal, impossible, etc..
The West escalates all the same. Unlike Russia, they are not bluffing. At every stage of this war, Russia has underestimated the sociopathy of the Western rulers.
The unplanned could very well explode in our faces the coming months.
The root causes to this prolonged War, failed SMO, is:
1. Russia hasnt managed the Information War. West is leading and dictates what the populace in West should think and passively agree on. There is NO counter-narrative reaching into the minds of the westerners. And therefore unelected von der Leyen and unelected Rutte can roam free and advocate forever War. The hated leaders Macron, Merz and Starmer can not be ousted and nowadys they can make people disappear or self-die (like the 7 nominees for AfD in Saxony).
2. Russia has totally failed in instilling FEAR into the western leaders. Macron can call Putin a flesh-eating vampire, Kallas can rewrite History and act like a maniac against Russia. Merz is harbouring revenge feelings for WW2. Starmer is talking about uk/little brits as if they are still controlling the World (could be true because of City of London).
Russia has reacted on provocations not acted in advance. I am fully aware of the game ”who started all this?” but we are beyond that now. West will try a shot on the Bear if they think it is weak. Scare them, please!
3. Russias failure to disrupt or destroy the supply-lines INTO Ukraine and in Ukraine (across Dniepr). The task could be impossible but have they even tried?
4. Lack of strategy for defeating Ukraine with blow to their weak spots and manouver of War. The attrition strategy is clear and bludgeon the Ukis in their trenches and fortresses in Donetsk will certainly decimate their strength and morale. But it is to easy to defend when Ukraine can see that the military goal is to liberate Donetsk - nothing more.
The FIRST thing Western dictatorships do is control the information space. So they banned PressTV, RT and Sputnik immediately. There's not much Russia can do to penetrate that firewall. Individual Westerners can make the effort - and risk being arrested for "disloyalty"; but when "pro-Russian" narratives are actively threatened with punishment and imprisonment (In fx Italy), then it's very hard to get any balanced view into the public sphere.
So the public are fed absolute BS, and even those who question part of it may often fall for the rest, because the BS is so comprehensive.
Russia has had moderate success in the global south in the information war, but in the West it is only the dissidents who are willing to take the actual risk to understand what is going on who learn.
There is literally nothing that Russia can do about that. I suppose a 'V' figure could infiltrate the BBC and shove a dvd into a scheduled broadcast, but I suspect that only works in movies.
Imagine "judging" something a success or failure based on what the corrupt corporate media (in the West) prints. My fellow Americans sadly deserve ALL the corruption and all the lies the politicians spew. It would be laughable, IF it wasn't so damm pitiful.
I dunno know how bad it's gotten in Western Europe in the last year, but the corporate propaganda machine was pretty bad last year, even so, many of the people I spoke with knew quite clearly that the media and the EU were lying to them.
Lately the UK has gone massively totalitarian fascist. We'll see what happens..
In the US, most of the people I know no longer pay much attention to the corporate propaganda machine. It's become too obvious. However, unlike the EU, we in the US can easily reach media on the Internet that is not blocked (like this site) so we can read news.
One of the issues I see today, is that we have as many ethnocentric people in the East as in the West. The political reality is far more complex than the "West" vs "Russia".
In reality, the West is broken up into two sides... the Globalist Financial Aristocrats (CABAL) that own the political machines in the EU and several European nations, plus the banks and the corporate propaganda machine... and a few nationalistic parties that are anti EU.... the people are likely still split.
The EU CABAL will try to fight Russia to the end as it is an existentialist affair for them.. so far... but there is no way they are going to force the citizens to go to war against Russia. There will be widespread revolutions and that's something the CABAL can not control.
In the US we're further down the road of cleansing the CABAL from our shores.
Anyone who calls Trump a "fool" or whatever, simply lacks the understanding of what is really going on. The American MAGA movement is actually aligned with Putin's Russia. We have the same enemies... the CABAL.
Look closely at how Trump is playing the game.. They tried to assassinate him twice.. came darn close once... so he has to step carefully, in a calibrated way, to dismantle the Deep State and the American faction of the CABAL, while he still needs the support of some RINOs...
It was Machiavelli who wrote:
"It should be borne in mind that there is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. The innovator makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new. Their support is lukewarm ... partly because men are generally incredulous, never really trusting new things unless they have tested them by experience."
This is exactly the path that Trump is on... he has the support of the majority of the people, but he is fighting the rear guard at every step.
I think that both you and Mikey need to understand that Russia really, truly does not give a shit what Europe or the UK think or accept as truth - let them drown in their own filthy propaganda - it means nothing to them anymore as there remains no economic incentive to carry on any kind of relationship. That's the advantage of being sovereign, free of any dependencies and a winner. Russia has turned its attention to the East, completely turning away from the West.
And I think you are wrong on that - as Putin said recently, "We don't have enemy countries, only hostile elites", or words to that effect. Russia would prefer to have good relations with every country, and part of that is that the populations of those countries understand what has really happened, and is really happening.
If Russia really "truly does not give a shit", then they wouldn't restart RT and Sputnik broadcasts back into Europe if the ban was lifted - but they absolutely will, even though that costs them significant resources.
I long ago wished that the USA could be carved out of the Earth and sent on its own way through space, leaving the rest of us alone - but that is not how the RW(tm) operates.
And Russia, China & the rest are painfully aware that we are all trapped together on this fragile ball of a generation ship, and the West is loaded to the gills with various types of WMDs.
They very much do give a shit, even as they might wish they didn't have to. Just as I feel about the USA.
I think you make a good point. Russia has always noted that its problem with any unfriendly country has to do with that country's ruling elite, not its people. The problem is that the people of these countries often have little or no power to make change, so the hatred of Russia by their elite goes on and spoils the relation with Russia. So in effect it is not the people that Russia is turning from, but their governments - I should probably have made that clearer, although the turn from Europe will have permanent negative impact on those countries' people. So yes, Russia will continue to fund RT, Sputnik, etc as a vehicle to influence the populations, but it will no longer take active steps to improve relations with those countries until perhaps the people are able to make changes. Having said that, however, it must be noted that the example of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline being proposed will permanently turn off the tap to Europe, taking away even the option to change and leaving Europe with continuing high energy prices for the foreseeable future. Such serious and irreversible actions on the part of Russia are a clear indicator that it has given up and lost patience with these elites and has left them to their own misery, and unfortunately, their populations as well.
It does seem rather permanent. The problem with oil/gas fields is that once started, you can't really turn it on and off like a tap. I'm nowhere near an expert in the field, lol, but I've gathered something about the internal pressures will collapse the entire field. So it had to go SOMEWHERE. And China and Russia needed some closer cooperation. Nothing like a pipeline for cementing long-term relations.
Perhaps if Europe BEGGED - like Trumpy seems to imagine India is going to do to him - Russia could find some spare capacity to flow their way in the future, but they would also have to be "Denazified and demilitarised"...
Can't see the CIA being cleared out of Western Europe as 'easily' as it is from Ukraine though.
Even when NATO implodes.
Europe needs to purge all the US NGOs, gain control of the media space, build its own internet capacity and social media, elect economic-nationalists (And avoid the racialist ones, because the Global south/BRICS aren't going to be too happy about more white-supremacism from Europe), and basically rebuild some pride in themselves, that isn't based upon hatred of the 'Other'.
Tall order, and there's very little sign of that. Fico, Corbyn, and that Belgium leftist party, and Wagenknecht... slim pickings. :(
That's a real head scratcher Mikey. I heard some were elderly and that other's passing was due to natural causes. But 7, in short order, doesn't look natural to me.
Yeah sure that is it. All 7 died from stress. And you wonder why the corporate media tell such bald-faced lies? Because there are so many people ready to accept anything because their ego's cannot handle being called a conspiracy theorist.
It was the election in North-Rhine Westphalia (my fault) and they say that two of them had severe conditions from before, one died of heart-failure and two more of problems with kidney. Its off-topic so I shouldnt have brought it up. What is sinister is that Elon Musk has said that the coming election, next year, is crucial for the Germans. So I expect rather tough playing from the german establishment the coming year.
I think that Putin waited for Trump to start negotiating. Because of the NewCons, Trump can't. Putin omis going to go ahead and liberate as much of the Banderan territories as he needs and wreck the rest.
3. Russias failure to disrupt or destroy the supply-lines INTO Ukraine and in Ukraine (across Dniepr). The task could be impossible but have they even tried?
I am sure Rus know how well built those bridge are, probably have some design plans somewhere. If it is impossible, then why try?
What would be achieved, in terms of the attriting the Ukie army? They just stay on the other side of the Dnieper, unharmed.
Not blowing the bridges might indicate their intentions to use them, which is what i believe is the case.
” What would be achieved, in terms of the attriting the Ukie army?”
Avoiding rational thinking is not going to win any War…
The only way western supply can get to the front is OVER a bridged Dnieper.
With all those troops EAST of Dnieper - how will they able to ”stay on the other side of Dnieper” i suppose you mean the West side?
They would be caught. And then defeat. Capitulation. End of story.
Instead we see village after village in the Russian new Oblasts (ob)liberated one by one.
Simple fact:
* Russia see this conflict as a small military operation (SMO) liberating the four oblasts. They see no need to DEFEAT Ukraine. It is an obvious objective - isnt it?
* West and Ukraine see this conflict as existential and will make whatever sacrifices it takes to continue the War and defeat Russia.
Good that you mention those things together, because putting them side by side exposes brilliantly the schizophrenic nature of Russian policy.
On the one hand we have the refusal to invest into soft power, with the predictable results that others who do win major victories over Russia without even fighting.
The thinking in Russia somehow seems to be that soft power doesn't matter, we can always send the tanks to take care of a problem.
But in the same time there is also a refusal to use force at the level necessary to solve the problems.
Well, you can't have it both ways if you want to survive -- can't be "white and fluffy" while thinking that you can always send the tanks. It does not compute, does it...
It is interesting to compare those 4 statements with Israel:
* Information War
* Instilling fear
* Cut the supplies
* Clear strategy
One can add a Russian principle to ”spare civilians” against Israels ”all are enemies”
Although Israel has a clear advantage in the information war, due to the circumstances in MSM, they are despised by many people because they exterminate civilians and dont follow any rules but their owns.
Israels ability to instill fear is unquestionable. They kill freely around the world and bomb whoever challenge them. Houti goverment wiped out. Every leader in Hamas, Hesbollah and a couple of Iranian top guns eliminated. It also mean they trigger defiance in those suffering Israels policy.
They definitely cut the supplies from Iran and hampered them when they bombed Syria for decades.
Israel has a clear strategy and that is extermination instead of peace and co-operation. Are they succeeding? Doubtful. They have expanded their territory but still has 6 millions palestinian inside Palestine/Israel denied of civil rights and opposing the repressive politics.
Ukraine regime are treating their Russian speaking inhabitants like Palestinians. Porochenko even threatened them with expulsion and no one ask what will happen if Russia withdraw from the four Oblasts.
It would be easy for Putin to adress those questions clearly. And should have been since 2014.
Not so sure that a complete Ukrainian defeat this is the best possible outcome although it would probably be better than a surviving revanchist rump Ukraine with sufficient territory and resources to represent a long term threat to Russia. Still such a scenario might well be another example of a war won and peace lost.
A much better solution would be an Austrian-style neutrality where the indefectible Ukrainians can engage in nation building. But to get there (as was the case with Austria) a first step might need to be unconditional surrender and Russian occupation.
I doubt the Western Globalist Financial Aristocracy will get many people to fight THEIR war with Russia. More likely, they'll end up hanging from Milan Style street lamps.
Putin does not want all of Ukraine, he just wants the Eastern Oblasts. They hold the majority of Russian ethnics living in Ukraine. Theyn were the ones being pounded by Kiev mercenaries after Maidan. Putin would not let them suffer! Don't forget that the peoples of Crimea and the Eastern Oblasts voted in a referendum to rejoin Russia. The precedent for the validity of such right, is the breakup of Serbia in 1999 accomplished by the US military and Clinton!
It seems to me, Denis, that Russia’s reluctance to just break Ukraine, in a brutal fashion, stems from a fear that such a move would create unbearable domestic pressure on the Europeans to intervene directly. Putin does not want this war to get out of control; he really doesnt. So, what he decided to do, instead, was to slowly and methodically grind down Ukraine’s military (and demographic) potential, boiling the frog, such that the Europeans did not realize a point of no return when it wa s reached. We may be at such a point.
Someone should tell the Orange Shabbos goy that he managed to stop 8 wars, not 7, with the latest being the rapproachment between India and China. He is now fully entitled to win the Nobel Idiot Prize. /sarcoff
Eleven more casualties recently on that speedboat off Venezuela. There was not enough fuel capacity for that boat to reach the US, nor could Americans determine if there were drugs aboard, after it's sunk.
It was likely a Venezuelan military reconnaissance boat probing the extent of the American blockade.
Effectively the US is blockading Venezuela. Trying to intimidate and prevent Chinese ships from taking on oil there, and munitions from coming in.
It appears to be a "starve out", to effect regime change and possible invasion.
Trump's view of the event, frame by frame, was likely from the WH situation room. He almost surely gave direct go-ahead for the rub-out.
remember the pathetic 2011 PR photograph of Clinton, Obama and friends in the Situation Room (some 'situation' indeed), practically salivating over the assault on bin Laden - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_Room_(photograph)
Indeed, the imagery comes to mind and makes me cringe. I don't see how those people can sleep at night. It's a lesson for all of us, I guess, to maintain vigil over our consciences and not rent them out.
that image to me at the time was one of the clearest examples of PR, or rather brainwashing. totally synthetic, pretending to be a scene from a Hollywood production. terrible.
Superb write-up. American politics has been smoke and mirrors and a litany of lies for decades--but that final clip of Trump is magnificent. In a perverse way he is awe inspiring. He is unquestionably the King of political BS. But there is also another characteristic of American politics--no one accepts responsibility, admits error, is held accountable or fired. There is always someone else to blame. I remember hearing a Chinese guy say that what's great about their system is there is only one party. If something is screwed up the people know exactly who to blame, the CPC. So things get fixed. He went on to say, in America you have two parties and when something is screwed up it's always the other party's fault--nothing gets fixed. I had to think about that one a second or two, before the light of recognition went on in my head.
And what it takes to succeed as a CPC member is based not on political awareness, shit-flinging, lies and deception, but on talent, high intelligence, broad proven performance and political expertise. The CPC could be more accurately called a technocracy as a result, communist in name only.
Don't get too carried away by enthusiasm for the Chinese system.
The big problems of a one-party state are, first, corruption and secondly, weakness of checks and balances. Right now, their leaders are far better than ours, but no system is perfect.
Have you taken a honest look at the staggering level of corruption in the US and EU? Russia and China can get things done on time and on budget, we can not. They can crush billionaire oligarchs that get out of line. Our governments just shake them down for pennies.
This persistent position that America = great and everyone else = crap is pure propaganda, much like the oft-repeated idea that Russian/Chinese military tech is low quality, even as it destroys all comers in Ukraine.
Occam: it sounds very similar, perhaps even exactly the same, as the belief that the United Kingdom is indeed United or Great Britain; Great. In truth, they're neither.
The Western political system is pure smoke and mirrors in this day and age, a charade for the easily lured who believe there's substantial difference between the Red and the Blue, while both are owned and managed by Big Money Interests. Politics was kidnapped by corporate interests a long time ago, which essentially is resulting in states (a superpower nonetheless) exercising a very aggressive form of the so-called 'predatory capitalism' around the globe.
Name some Western governments who've been executing people-friendly, i.e. populist policies in the last few years and you'll know which countries still uphold democracy, at least to some extent.
I'm not carried away at all. You say the one-party state's weakness is corruption - what about the two-party state? No country can claim to be free of corruption. I consider the USA as well as most of the so-called "democracies" of the West as thoroughly corrupt - far more than in China. At least in China, when they uncover corruption, even at the highest level, they root it out and severely punish (sometimes by death) the perpetrators no matter their office. Who is held responsible in America? If you don't know the answer to that, I pity you. And weakness of checks and balances? You clearly have no idea of the Chinese system. As for the quality of its leaders, you have to understand that their quality is increasing over time because their system as it evolves over time is becoming more and more able to keep weak and/or corrupt leaders out.
Yes, of course China, as any other country, has its problems, but the fact is that they are far better positioned to deal with those problems than those in the West.
There are sound reasons why China is the number one economy in the world.
I used to believe that (crap) because its what i was told all my life . But from what I've seen, (in a lot of years) corruption is spread, more or less evenly throughout the human species, and that there is no special principle or power of a "two party system" that wards off corruption..Our system is perfectly corrupt and you may notice one day, that its "two party " in name only.The only thing they really " balance out " is how to spread the graft around ..they take turns and to mock us further they tell us to choose between them.
Interesting too to observe the surrounding smiling sycophants, hanging on to his every word as though they're listening to some source of divine wisdom, but then again, I guess their pay cheques depend on it. Without the power of high office he would be told to eff off and laughed out of the room.
This came across my screen last night. I've not personally done any background checking besides confirming the named DOJ official exists (Joseph Schnitt, Acting Deputy Chief of the DOJ’s Office of Enforcement Operations), he was recorded blabbing his take on how the Epstein file is being purged of names & video evidence implicating "conservatives" (Rs and R financial backers) in the Epstein operation. The statements were made to a lady he met online who recorded their "date". Additionally, he is documented as having lied to his bosses in an email re: having told her what his job at Justice was when asked by management WTF he had done? Oops. Don't think he'll be getting his government retirement now?
Epstein was into a lot more than the widely publicized sexual favors/entrapment/influence operations everyone in the media is obsessed about.
Epstein's relationships with the various billionaire "tech bros" and the "Edge Foundation" seminars and other meetings he organized among them going back to the 1990s are still flying under most people's RADAR. Considering that all of those people are still in place & only growing in wealth, power & influence, they REALLY do bear a closer look.
"no one accepts responsibility, admits error, is held accountable or fired."
This is true of any government system which has a large, unelected group of bureaucrats doing the actual day to day business of government.
The basic reason we see China and Russia being so well run is that their respective leaders are extremely well educated, and are not lax in putting the fear of God and certain death into those bureaucrats who might imagine "they" should actually be running the country.
Democracy, as a practical matter, is basically an exercise in passing the buck, in avoiding responsibility. Everyone in power claims to answer to and derive their authority from someone else, going ultimately back to "the people" who themselves do not directly exercise power, and who would find it difficult to exercise as a collective action problem, even if they had the formal authority to do so.
What this means is that real power is often in the hands of unelected bureaucrats, who typically don't even want to stand for election because they don't want the voters to know what their programs are, much less to exercise any oversight. Robert Moses is the classic example here.
Even that minimal level of scrutiny is too much for some, and real power is often exercised by people not formally part of any government structure. Corporate lobbyists or Robert Kagan come to mind.
There's standard grade political BS and there's Trump's, which goes way beyond the norm. Over the top, delusional, grandiose, with his sycophants hovering around, all of whom surely know this is pure nonsense, Trump takes it to a level that makes me question the mental fitness of the man. My worry is just where is Trump's head at? There appears to be some level of realpolitik in his words and actions, which is more than can be said for the previous administration, which actually seemed to believe its own moralizing BS. But at heart DJT appears to be a different flavor of colonialist, who recognizes that Ukraine is a lost cause and wants out, but still has the same old agendas for China and the Middle East. Did DJT believe that his wonderful self with his boundless charm and irresistible persuasiveness, would convince Putin to accept his terms to end the conflict. Does Trump now feel like he is caught in a trap, and once it's clear that Russia will take all of the 4 oblasts and Europe has no means of stopping them, get the US back in and start climbing the escalation ladder? The man is mercurial to say the least, and takes everything that doesn't go his way as a personal affront. He also has a tendency for shows of violence.
Yes, he appears to be mentally unstable and delusional--or else it's one hellofva act. My fear is this: he can't beat Russia, he can't beat Iran, he can't beat DPRK, and he sure as heck can't beat China. He looks at the leaders and the incredible parade in Beijing and is humiliated. He thinks, I'll show them! So he bombs the crap out of Venezuela using stealth F-35's and B-2's which, with S-200's, they can't touch. No invasion. We'd get our asses kicked--just bombing and maybe decapitation. Then he struts around like Napoleon. Sad, but a real possibility.
I agree in principle, but would argue we have one party. The dominant Democrat wing and the subservient and impotent Republican wing. The Republicans serve different oligarchs and deceive the public by telling them what they want to hear. But they never make legislative changes, other than reinforcing the exfiltration of wealth to the inbred 1% elite oligarchs.
The irony is they reveal that the clueless macho, pretend to be tough American Empire first crowd are actually ignorant effiminates. It's easy to justify blowing up pleasure boats in the Caribbean, droning Yemeni tribal councils or advocate shelling Donbass civilians when there are no consequences to your own home or family.
The public is being ripped off and saddled with unsustainable debt to enrich incompetent MIC companies.
And our national security is destroyed by creating enemies world wide while not being able to sustain high intensity combat.
The Golden Dome is another Money laundromat. We do not have interceptors that function reliably let alone the quantities needed if defending the country.
Of course if we minded our own business we wouldn't have enemies.
While it's necessary to follow NATO's song and dance about security guarantees, something else must be repeated:
Ukraine once said that, when they get a ceasefire, they've prepared for a long campaign of assassinating every Russian involved in prosecuting the war, military and civilian. IIRC, they quoted they may go on doing this for up to 30 years.
If Ukrainian fascists (along with their Western backers) are prepared to bleed Russia for generations, then perhaps us onlookers need to retake account of what Russia has committed to. Real victory requires matching and surpassing that level of commitment.
That depends on your understanding of what Russia has committed to. It's not just territory. They have committed to neutralising Ukraine's ability to be a threat to the Russian Federation - that could include many options, among which might necessitate military victory and complete regime change.
When I hear Trump I always recall an old Soviet song, "without me, without me, there wouldn't be absolutely nothing, and even sun wouldn't be shining, if it were not for me..."
How can a grown-up (old, actually:-)) man get into such boasting sprees, and who can even listen to it all with a straight face, beats me.
Megalomania - personal, and country-wise takes now an entirely new meaning...
I voted for Trump in 2024 (not in 2016, 2020) out of sheer desperation given the "choices" we had, and I wasn't going to waste my useless vote on the irrelevant parties to "prove a point," when Kamala, the ding was looming.
So, now as a 'Trump supporter,' I alternate between the jaw dropping and eyes rolling whenever Trump opens his mouth. It looks like all his sanity went into the "campaign" and now just the shell is left (provided, there was any content to start with:-)
When I say "supporters", I don't mean people like you who voted in desperation, but the "true believers", MAGA worshippers who have accepted him with unqualified, unquestioned support.
They must be staring in disbelief as his campaign promises rapidly turn to dust and his hollow boasts have no bearing in reality whatsoever. Worse still; there's nowt they can do about it apart from pay the inflated prices his tariffs have caused.
Trump was showing signs of dementia even while campaigning. Why are you pretending? There was nothing wrong with the choices you had 🙄 You preferred a lying, dementia-ridden, abusive man to his opponent. There was a clear choice, you voted for Trump.
So stop pretending you voted for him out of desperation 🤣 you knew exactly what you were doing.
@Liza - Well, maybe you share the psychotic traits with Trump, so it's easy for you to comprehend him. Or it's easy to align with his "opponent", but It's not for me - if I spent such an effort as he did on his campaign, then sure as hell, I would do my very best to stop this war(s) and try to fix the economy.
Actually this was pretty funny and well played, also with serving @McDonald's counter, etc. But what then looked like a witty come back, turned out to be his entire essence of the lack of such....
I think of the Bible verse "pride comes before a fall." What is he going to do when it becomes too obvious to hide that he did not make America great again. Apparently he is incapable of admitting he was ever wrong. Interesting to hypothesize what will happen when that point arrives.
It kind of redeems the book Trump's niece wrote about him. Most of us initially dismissed the book as sour grapes from a disgruntled "liberal" relative of Trump's. Turns out she knew what she was talking about. Buyers remorse, right here.
People that are around Trump socially claim he is actually quite kind. He gets in front of a camera and 9 times out of 10 he reverts to his TV personality.
See Cambridge Analytica. It's called something else, now. CA identified who Trump needed to appear to be to get elected back in 2012 or so.
I think you are right. He keeps turning his eyes, shifting his weight and he is generally restless. He is most likely concerned that Trump will burp up something real stupid in his megalomaniac rush there.
As he is s aging he is losing some of his sharpness and self-control. As pressure increases on him he will come up with stupid things. He knows that he suffered a major, irreversible geopolitical defeat in the last few days by the hands of the China, Russia, North Korea and India team. His mind is searching for a way out of this situation but there is no solution. This constant psychobabble about his own greatness and the coming Nobel Peace Prizes is not going to win him much public recognition.
The footage of them all enjoying a laugh and rubbing shoulders with Kim must have made his blood boil. Maybe Steam really did come out of his Ears as he approached Apoplexy.
Much as I'd love to declare victory, I am concerned that someone in State will convince Trump to relax tariffs on India a bit, pat Modi on the head, promise to look the other way at any persecution of Muslims, and Modi will flip once more.
Not only India, also China and Russia, would prefer to maintain a good relationship of cooperation and mutual respect with the so-called West.
Conflict is caused by the understanding by the US leaders that without something that destabilises their opponents now, the natural development of the situation would/will lead to Russia's strengthening, but above all, to China becoming the supreme economic and political power in the world. Also one with an alternative system of economic governance, what might help give some undesirable ideas to the peasants at home.
Russia (and also the Soviet Union) had this unique way of winning wars historically. Some of these acts remain on the minds of Russian military strategists, deeply embedded there.
In 1480, after struggling with the Tatars for centuries, Muscovy forces faced off the Golden Horde at the Ugra River led by Ivan III of Moscow. The occasion was that Muscovy refused to pay taxes to the Golden Horde. There was a month long face off between the two armies while the Russians received additional forces and the Golden Horde had to worry about the coming winter. At the end, both armies decided independently to break off the confrontation without a major battle. Most historians agree that the event marked the turning point in Muscovy – Tatar relations and initiated a strong growth period for future Russia.
In 1812 Napoleon’s armies kept walking deeper and deeper into Russia. General Mikhail Kutuzov used scorched-earth tactics to deprive the French but he started to run out of land and received warnings to engage them. At the Battle of Borodino (September 7, 1812) both armies suffered giant losses without a clear victory and the French marched on to Moscow, The city was dutifully burned by the Russians just at the start of the winter and the French were forced to turn around suffering additional losses and a dissolution of their army units. These were the events that turned Napoleon’s fate in Europe, he was not invincible anymore.
The Battle of Moscow at the end of 1941 happened after an uninterrupted march of the German forces when some of their units already had a clear view on Central Moscow. The hard winter, the extended German supply lines and the endlessly flowing Lend-Lease goods were all major factors, including some fresh Soviet forces arriving from the Far East after it was decided that Japan will not attack there. (I have seen evidence showing that the Lend-Lease records presently offered to historians and the US general public is forgeries.)
The Red Army’s Kursk offensive started as a defensive act and developed into a giant tank battle in July of 1943. It was followed by series of Soviet offensives that turned WWII around.
In most of these situations Russia was simply giving up giant territories to alter the balance for a final battle and start a recovery. I think there is a strong possibility that the final aim of the War of Attrition was to alter the balance of power and to prepare the UAF for a major defeat.
Yes, this appears to be a recurrent strategy of Russians.
Also the Swedes were strategically destroyed when they were deep into Russian Empire territory in Poltava. Even in that battle, Peter's idea was to build defences and let the enemy advance. Not unlike Borodino or Kursk.
Wellington's ideas at Waterloo and while fighting in Spain were similar, although he was the exception in the English way of fighting.
I would add that against Napoleon, Russian strategy of retreating to extend French supply lines had been designed by Barclay de Tolly, an honest, very technical officer, who was replaced because he had not a Russian name, what apparently was unacceptable for the Russian nobility.
I think that operationally Kutuzov just followed what the Russian army was doing before him. His merit lies in the way he was able to give the fight a moral meaning for the Russian soldiers, conscripted peasants, turning the war from a conflict between monarchs to a struggle between peoples.
The overriding facts of war in Russia are the vast geographic dimensions involved, which control strategy for *all* participants. That geography is fact, and how you deal with the lay of the land is something imposed on all participants, not a choice of strategy.
Most historians agree that the turning point for Russia wasn't the battle on the Ugra river but the defeat of the Golden Horde - twice - by Dmitri Donskoi, most famously at the battle of Kulikovo field in 1380 when Donskoi defeated Mamai himself at the head of the Golden Horde. In the back and forth ending of Mongol domination of Russia that was the first successful pushback. Ugra was also significant, for sure, but it wasn't the turning point that Kulikovo was.
Kutuzov in 1812 understood how to use Russia's geography to destroy a superior army (at the time Napoleon's Grand Armee was by far the most powerful and militarily expert on the planet). He did not "start to run out of land" as the French advance was only a tiny fraction of the land available. What he encountered was pressure from a nobility that had a deeply European ethos of war. They all spoke French and wanted to charge head on into the Grand Armee, feeling that their honor required that even if it was a terrible military plan. Kutuzov decided to let them do that at Borodino, believing that doing so would end political opposition to his strategy.
Borodino wasn't a matter of survival for Russia but it was for the Grand Armee. Without a decisive win at Borodino it was clear that the Grand Armee would be destroyed in Russia. Kutuzov knew that would happen anyway, with a strong likelihood Napoleon himself would fall. The Grand Armee had already suffered huge losses just to get as far as Borodino with many allies dropping off and many deaths. It was weak enough that Kutuzov could fight Napoleon to a draw at Borodino. But the battle was bloody enough that, the requirements of honor met, the nobility stopped carping about Kutusov's strategy.
Saying Moscow was "dutifully" burned by the Russians is making the decision of one man, the governor, and a possibly apocryphal decision at that, state strategy. There was no need to burn Moscow since the evacuation of the population and the elimination of food supplies would have made it an insufficient winter refuge for the Grand Armee without burning it.
The subsequent destruction of the Grand Armee as it attempted to flee Russia wasn't anywhere near the end, either. The main part of the "War of 1812" happened after 1812, when Russia's armies responded to the attack by invading French held territory in Western Europe and pushed on all the way to occupying Paris, where many of the Russian officers had estates and city mansions (the nobility all spoke French).
In 1941 it wasn't a Russian strategy to give up territory that brought the Germans to the gates of Moscow, it was the extreme military incompetence of Stalin and the horrific performance of the general staff after Stalin had imprisoned or executed in the Terror his experienced and competent military officers. Literally millions of Soviet soldiers were encircled and captured because Stalin refused to believe that Hitler would attack.
Lend-lease hadn't had any effect at all in 1941. The Germans were stopped at the gates of Moscow by a superhuman fanaticism in defense of Moscow and by an inability to supply their forward troops over such long and fragile supply lines. The arrival of fresh troops mobilized from the vast interior of Russia played a role in the counter-offensive, not in the original stopping of the German offense.
The battle of Kursk wasn't a defensive act, but the result of successful offensives that created the "Kursk Bulge" that protruded into German-held territory. It wasn't followed by a series of Soviet offensives that turned WWII around but was the result of Soviet offensives that followed the successful defense of Moscow (the real event that turned WWII around for the USSR). Stalingrad, in February of 1943, for example was well before Kursk and truly broke the back of the Wehrmacht and ended any chance of Germany seizing the oilfields in the South.
John, if Kulikovo in 1380 truly turned the Russian-Tatar relations the Russians would have stopped paying taxes to their opponent. On the other hand exactly a century later, in 1480, the Golden Horde shows up with a major army a hundred miles south east from Moscow to collect taxes. That means that taxes were paid most of the time between 1380 and 1480.
'The overriding facts of war in Russia are the vast geographic dimensions involved, which control strategy for *all* participants. That geography is fact, and how you deal with the lay of the land is something imposed on all participants, not a choice of strategy.'
Geographic realities are a framework for strategies.
'Lend-lease hadn't had any effect at all in 1941.'
Lend-lease had serious effects by the end of 1941. The fact that we are denied the true data still allows us to have some ideas of the dimensions of the program.
"if Kulikovo in 1380 truly turned the Russian-Tatar relations the Russians would have stopped paying taxes to their opponent."
The relations between various power centers within Russia and the Horde weren't so simple as the above. Many of the princes *depended* on the power of, or even just the implied threat of the power of, the Horde for their own control of their regions. One reason they collected tribute was so they could take a large cut for themselves. And some did and some didn't pay tribute throughout the history of the Mongols in Russia.
Why Kulikovo was a turning point was because it was the very first time that a major Mongol army led by the head of the Golden Horde himself suffered a decisive defeat at the hands of a Russian prince. That was the turning point in subsequent relations between the many power centers of Russia and the ever more fragmented Horde. Once Donskoi showed it could be done the relations with the rest of the princes were never the same.
As before, some continued to pay tribute and some didn't. But it became considerably more difficult for the Horde to exert the influence they had before. As before there were battles from time to time, but what changed was that the Russian princes now had an expectation they could defeat the Mongols in battle. That set the trend that Ugra continued. By 1480 it was already clear the era of total Mongol dominance was over, with the Russian princes increasingly taking the fight to the Mongols. Just a few short years later Ivan Vasilievich (the IV, known as "the Fierce" or "the Terrible") was wiping out former Mongol strongholds like Astrakhan and Kazan.
More Realistic:
1. Give many long range missiles to Ukraine
2. Ukraine attacks Russia, mainly Moscow
3. Russian AD shoots them down, like all wonderwaffles before
4. Worse political relationship
5. Russia stills wins
Wrong, in every way. Do you even have a clue what is going on??
Western strategy WAS:
1. Arm and train Ukraine to Western standards.
2. Impose crushing financial sanctions on Russia.
3. Watch as superior Western arms and training forced Russia to send cannon fodder to war, to be shredded by superior Western arms and tactics.
4. Laugh, as Russia falls into abject poverty, due to lack of finances.
5. Rub hands in glee, as Putin is overthrown by starving Muscovites.
6. Walk into Moscow, behind triumphant Ukrainian army, to divide Russia into many delectable, corrupt, bite size pieces.
What the Western strategy RESULTED IN:
1. Russia set the tactics and style of war, to suit itself.
2. Western corporations lost all their Russian investments, including factories and franchises.
3. Western weapons (including long range missiles) and tactics, proven against goat herders, failed in action against a peer force, which then became a superior one.
4 Russia pivoted, financially and strategically, to the East, laughing at the sanctions.
5. Putin re-elected by a larger margin.
6. Russia grinds West, stronger and more confident in every way.
"The West is also highly motivated and this war is very cheap for them."
LOL.
The general population of the West does NOT want to fight ANY war.
Western governments are going into stupid amounts of debt, just to provide the ILLUSION of helping Ukraine, they CAN'T afford to ACTUALLY help, either politically or financially.
I Second that
Trump is not senile, in the sense that he has gotten more barmy with age.
Far as I can tell, yo, Trump has always been this way.
Scintillas add up, and I learned a tidbit or two reading the comments here today. That Trump was the one who likely ratted out Epstein to the FBI. It may be why Trump is getting rather retentive over the Epstein file trove.
It may also explain why Trump allowed Comey to remain as FBI head so long, despite their enmity. Better to let sleeping dogs lie.
If true, that Trump is a snitch, Trump is more of a Whitey Bulger type than a John Gotti.
The Teflon on orange Don turns out to be made by coppertone.
The rumours of a massive RF offensive coming from the UKR side are just managing expectations. If the next month continues to be business as usual - attrition with no big arrow offensives - then Ukraine will claim a great PR victory, as usual.
Maybe the RF will do something dramatic, but there is no need to do so. Every month the Russian army gets bigger and stronger and Ukraine gets weaker by being unable to replace losses.
I'm not wanting to sound contrary Cheryl, but I see the Weather becoming something of a factor, the times they are a changing as Bob Dylan said. First week of September nearly over, day length shortening, it's getting cooler and damper in the mornings, misty too in those damp fields. This may be a good time to get stuff done, a window of opportunity if you like before they hit Autumn, and it's downhill from there.
I thought "Climate Change" got rid of autumn, Simon! :)
What is autumn? You probably just made that term up. What does it mean? Starting in November, the fighters will be demanding this chaotic change, if only to avoid turning into ice cubes.
I think with HAARP, Geo-engineering, Weather modification and whatever other Devilish tools they possess Steghorn, they can create whatever Season they want. Whatever; when the leaves drop, hiding in treelines and copses will be of no use. Kind regards.
Climate Change got rid of winter, too. The only season left is summer, more accurately described as "Hell on Earth," where temperatures stay in the 90s for day after day, and it never rains, where your utility bills quadruple from running the air conditioner day and night for months on end.
Why do more people die from freezing during those warm winters than they do during "Hell on Earth"?
Asking for a friend.
This affects both sides. Adapting methods to work around. The amount of ordinance in the prepfires alone will we withering.
@Chevrus
Minor quibble-
There is no "I" in ordnance.
I know, between spell checker & voice to text, one might as well get drunk and use a broken pencil.
Meh
I dont nit pick people that speak more than one language
@Yukon Dave
Two tell the truth, talking too people who speak at least to languages is very edifying.
throw me down the stairs, my hat
If you analyze events carefully, you will see that the Russians are most effective in winter. In autumn and winter, except in cases of rain and strong winds, drones have the highest number of targets; the foliage of trees and tall crops are no longer visible, their natural camouflage disappearing. And then, Russia's second objective is to kill NATO by draining its arsenals and ruining its members.
You're not quite there yet. We have to go back to Surovikin's statements: we let them come and destroy them, that's what happens every day. Of course, the Russians are advancing, but they are forced to do so when there is nothing left in front of them. The Russians are playing military brick-breaker games: they break down the wall and then advance to the next one. The main thing is to break down the walls, not to advance in great strides, and when the last wall is knocked down, they will be walking around, covering dozens of kilometers a day.
Rainy season will be there in a week or two. Maybe some large operational grabs (Pokrovsk, Kupiansk) before the rains to hold until the ground dries enough to begin a sizable winter campaign.
Exactamundo! Why should Russia redeploy in order to amass forces? Why should Russia initiate any major offensive in any direction? We all know that such changes are absurd, because Russia's current go-slow strategy is absolutely perfect. Other than minor tactical tweaks, no changes are necessary. It works for all battlefield situations in Ukraine, for all time, to deliver all its political goals forever. It's utterly stupid, nay useless to even consider discussing the topic. And if anyone tries, they should be laughed out of making any further comments, since they have no serious ideas that are worthwhile bringing to the discussion.
Let's remind ourselves, it's a wonderful thing that Russia has decided to go slow with its military strategy, otherwise the west would have time to overcome its internal problems and ramp up its weapons industries, which of course is impossible. Russia taking over Odessa now would be an even greater mistake, since that would give Russia time to consolidate its overall military posture in order to best prepare for western attacks outside of Ukraine, which also will never, ever happen. Obviously Russia owns the flow of time and the march of history, along with knowing exactly what its enemies will do in the future.
So no worries, mate!
If Russia doesn't take Odessa, it will have a base there and control it, at the risk of seeing NATO set up there. And then, this base will be just a stone's throw from NATO's in Romania and will cool the ardor of the West
"As more time goes on, the shallow nature of Trump’s Alaska spectacle is revealed in its entirety. As we had imagined, nothing real was achieved, and everything was done merely for PR glitz and fleeting headline bait."
I predicted that even before the Alaska spectacle started, as readers of my substack know very well. But, let's be honest, you do not need a crystal ball for that, you just need to stop taking Trump's words at face value and treating everything that comes from his filthy mouth as what it is: pure BS, as the video at the end of this article shows.
The question the reporter should have really asked is 'How long is it going to take to meet all the military objectives, oh fearless leader?'
answer: generations and generations... 100years and still no peace.
That indeed is what the europeans would like to believe. As for Russia, there is no point in simply blitzing its way to territorial acquisition it will indeed have to fight forever to hold. The steady attrition of all western support including the demise of the current european bloc of Russia-phobe leaders by their own astonishingly inept hands, and the obliteration of all native Ukrainian hostile resource, is the way to go. It is the way to ensure a peaceful assimilation of f.Ukraine into the RF.
For those with no foresight or blinkered by their own desires, it is called the long game, and Putin has been playing it for a very long time.
Very insightful comment. Attritional warfare forces a beaten opponent to stay beat.
Indeed. Thanks for that elucidation. Pity I did not put it so tersely (and well) :-)
Totally. He's not just bleeding Ukraine white but stretching the EU and NATO to breaking point.
The EU’ old shabbos boys and girls deserve a good squeeze
So many other factors are tied to this conflict. And the balance for the EU is coming due. At this point the room is bare and the carpet is bulging!!
"As for Russia, there is no point in simply blitzing its way to territorial acquisition it will indeed have to fight forever to hold."
This is another one of those copes. Insurgency is a young man's game. Compare the median ages in Yemen, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Vietnam with the median age in Ukraine.
You wont be convincing many here that being thorough is simply a form of cope.
Thoroughness has nothing to do with it. And I realize that most here are continually coming up with cope, excuses, retcon, pos-hoc rationalizations, etc..
Explain to us how it has nothing to do with it…since you appear to have a window into RF strategy
I am not sure what RF strategy has to do with the rationalizations here.
It is also an empirically wrong claim.
Most people here have no idea what Ukraine was like before the war and have made little effort to learn, despite all the information being available.
Such as those infamous 2010 and 2012 election maps:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election#/media/File:2012_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election_-_List_results.svg
What do we notice here? The blue-red separation between the southwest and the rest is well-known. But there are important nuances. Such as Kherson, which is the lightest blue in color in all of the southeast. Even some districts in otherwise Banderized regions (Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernigov) voted for Yanukovich more than Kherson did. Which matches with non-systematic observations that Kherson was the least pro-Russian place in the southeast.
Yet Russia took it largely without a fight and there has been no significant insurgency to speak of there, not even across the river until the shameful retreat three years ago (yes, it has been three years, and no effort whatsoever has been made to retrieve a regional capital of the Russian Federation),
And what there has been in terms of sabotage acts and terrorism would not have happened had the SBU and GUR been physically destroyed (why have they largely been left untouched four years into this is one of those questions we go back to again and again and again, with no answers) and even less so had the rest of Ukraine been similarly placed under direct Russian control.
This is all so obvious and truistic.
Something else that is self-evident is that the more of the enemy's population you directly control, the fewer soldiers they can send to fight you directly. It is so self-evident that it has been a core military objective ever since there was organized warfare on this planet many thousands of years ago. Just the act of goodwill gestures from around April 1st 2022 added some at least 6-7 million people to the available to the Kiev regime press-ganging pool, plus it freed up their logistics between Kiev and Kharkov. Because at one point Kiev was blockaded (3 million people), Chernigov and Sumy were sieged (another couple million), Kharkov was largely blockaded too, etc.
Would the war of attrition been easier without the goodwill gestures or with them?
There has been and there will be no adequate answers from the Putin fanboys.
Precisely this^^^^. The correct way to accomplish the task is to be thorough, and rushing in while biting off more than can be comfortably digested is foolish. Thus the RF military does not do so…. Simple. But yeah, we can sit back and watch the Doom & concern Troll roll out the same old crap as reality continuously punches them in the face….
Its not that Russia does not want to have large arrow offensives - they can't do them without massive losses. Everything is being watched to the point where most Russia breakthroughs are done inside gas pipelines. Any troop concentration above ground is seen and attacked. You only need a few FPV drones and a couple accurate arty rounds to stop an large armored column before it gets to the contact line; hence the 3-man moped teams. That takes way too much time.
My fear is the slow pace - this will take years more still at present pace, will usher in some back swan that the RF did not see. Expect more spider web attacks and eventually Ukraine will declare they have a crude nuke. Once Ukraine declares they have one or more bombs what is Russia's strategy then? I would be surprised if Ukraine does not already have the material and is enriching it someplace as I type this.
Is time on the Russia side?
Russia had a small window of opportunity to win under these rules of engagement in 2022, and it missed it in classical Putin fashion.
After that it had to change the rules of engagement and directly go after NATO ISR and weapon supplies. That had to be done before the West was given a chance to get so involved in this that it became existential for them too. Which, again in classical Putin fashion, he fumbled the ball on in a catastrophic way.
Putin Yesterday:
Ukraine wants a meeting. I'm ready. Come. We will create working conditions and security. - Putin.
"The best place for negotiations is the capital of the Russian Federation."
Yanukovych shed tears when he learned about the economic consequences of Ukraine's EU accession. - Putin.
Putin said he "didn't see much point in direct contacts with Zelensky, since he couldn't sign anything that would have existed, but he was ready for it."
He believed that "it will now be impossible to reach an agreement with Zelensky on key issues."
Putin said Russia could attack NATO troops if they appeared on Ukrainian territory.
"NATO troops would be legitimate targets for the Russian army if they appeared in Ukraine. Once peace is achieved in Ukraine, there will be no need to station Western troops there," Putin said.
"Security guarantees should apply to both Russia and Ukraine, and Russia will respect them," and Russia will "fully comply with the peace agreements on Ukraine once they are reached."
Putin noted that he had not yet called Trump after the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Europe.
The dishonorable NATO has been attacking itself well since the criminal bombing of Yugoslavia. Not a single honorable person among NATO deciders
I would have said that bombing Serbia was a crime that NATO got away with. It was pushing Russia that has landed them in the mud.
I'd say that NATO got away with bombing Serbia in 1999. But 26yrs later a lot of people are talking about it. And I mean a lot lot. NATO hasn't gotten away with shit.
Who and where Lionel?
I must not move in those circles! 😁
Right here for starters.
The correct pronouns is former and future Yugoslavia. China's Military parade has a calming effect on me to the point I haven't yelled at anyone in three days time and had a constructive conversation on-line. Speaking of "somewhat unhinged " Slavic women, it is an experience.
I wouldn't say that Serbia bombing is something they got away with. There was a story of Russian special forces at the airport and gallant nato occupying forces backing up just for that moment in history. Since none of these men have a telegram channel to "speak the truth" on the most traumatizing anniversaries it is, well, it might be just a feel good story after all.
The parade - is a thing of beauty, harmony, synchrony and a reminder that men and women who fought in WWII are among us due to their superb genetic make up.
Plus, 1.4 billion people cannot be on the wrong side of history.
I can imagine that all they did I during that meeting was experiment with respelling ‘äąśž-płœőûñďïņğ’ in the hopes that it will hurt less….
Empty statements about red lines combined with a very weak diplomatic posture.
Zelensky has to be be killed, now, in the most demonstrative way possible, not invited to any kind of talks. How many thousands of Russians has that man directly murdered?
Then we have the "legitimate targets" part. Notice what he does not say -- he mentions nothing about strikes on the countries that send those soldiers.
So NATO can move into Ukraine and start firing into Russia from there, but NATO territory will remain perfectly safe from Russian retaliation. What is there to lose then?
Yes LOL . It was a very long question for that short answer from Putin.
The questioner sounded nervous to be talking to Putin
Planted. Always when someone explain the answer before the ”question” you know they are directed.
The historical decline of the Roman Empire is a good example by the time Rome was sacked it's power had shifted from focussed Military conquest and expansionism to a religious one under the Papist Roman Catholic Church and the ensuing schisms, that could be argued are ongoing today. Didn't hear Pope Frankie calling for Peace in fact he didn't object to Cyril? the head of the Orthodox church being sanctioned, nor to the theft of several valuable Icons, or were they removed for safekeeping ? As for Pope Bob we've not heard a squeak.
Correct. Is it just me, or has mention of Frankie become as rare as that of Biden? Sic transit gloria mundi!
One thing for sure is that if Frankie got commission from Pfizer for being their best salesman ever ("it is the duty of all Catholics everywhere to accept the vaccine") he didn't get much chance to spend it !
Actually the Roman empire's population sickened through malaria and various excesses, and it declined into relying on mercenaries to fight its battles, some time before the Holy Roman Empire reached an apogee.
76% of Americans have a chronic illness. We're at the hire mercenary stage. Collapse would then be just around the corner.
On the contrary, before its end the troops of legionaries were only foreigners, in the majority and it is proven that this led to this end.
Don't tell Belisarius. He wouldn't have reconquered Africa and Italy with a fundamentally mercenary army if he'd known. And Julius Caesar had a lot of Socii in his auxilia back before Jesus.
The fall of the Western Roman empire can be attributed to many things. Declining population due to disease, civil wars, external pressure, social inequality.
And it's important to try to highlight why the West fell and the East didn't, since they faced very similar challenges.
I think silence is the only option for Pope Leo at this point. The fact is the Russian SMO is the only just war waged in a very long time anywhere on the planet. The best a globalist Pope can do is keep his modernist mouth shut...
Cut & Paste concern trolling
Good work if you can get it.
Do not forget- the point of the Alaska performance was simply to get Trump off the tariffs-sanctions hook he had hung himself on. It cost Putin nothing to help him out here and the PR win was all Putin's as the mouth-foaming response of european leaders demonstrated so well.
Also, Trump dropped talking about the ceasefire first, negotiate later option, which would have led inevitably to a frozen conflict. But yes, the results of this overhyped meeting were very modest.
But at least he killed 11 Venezuelans in a boat to show that America still rules the waves (or waives the rules!)
We don't even know if they were Venezuelan. "Killed" is much kinder than "murdered".
Putin has hit two homers recently, the Alaska summit and the Shanghai Cooperative meeting. Trump's rant on TS was priceless, "you guys are conspiring!". Colbert's reaction to Trump's rant in his monologue was hilarious.
Yep. It simply displayed how rattled he was.
The Order of the New Dawn must be amazed at this gift that just keep on giving as the western old sun not so graciously sets.
Trump's tweeting has gotten really beta since the election. Like it was some staffer trying to imitate the real thing... 🤔😉
What homers are you hallucinating about?
What PR stunts Putin engaged in is entirely irrelevant, the situation on the ground is what matters, and it is not at all pretty.
It's September 2025.
The last time any sizable settlement was taken by the Russian army was in late 2024, the Sumy buffer zone operation ran into a brick wall the same way the Volchansk fiasco from May 2024 did, i.e. the war is still not going in the right direction at all.
Sure, attrition is non-linear, etc. But you would expect the AFU to be crumbling at least a little bit, not to be holding defense more effectively than it did at this time last year.
P.S. Alaska was actually a huge own goal if you stop slurping on Putin's shriveled testicles and look at the situation objectively. Right as the enemy is firing GMLRS missiles 50-100 km into your territory and is coordinating long-range light cruise missile strikes all the way to the Urals, and right after they attacked your strategic nuclear forces, you go visit the enemy on his own turf and hug and behave friendly with him. What kind of message does that send to the world and internally? A hugely demoralizing one for the military (i.e. they and the country will be betrayed once again for the benefit of Russian oligarchs) and a message of pathetic weakness for the rest of the world.
Putin has only one viable position here, which is to come out and say that if Trump wants to be friends, he needs to immediately end all US weapon supplies and intelligence sharing and he has to hand over all the people responsible for starting the war to Russia, both politicians and Western oligarchs, where those people will be publicly tortured and killed in a particularly gruesome way in order to re-establish deterrence. If Trump does not do that, he will be considered an enemy, the US will be phyiscally removed from Eurasia, and the people responsible for starting the war will be killed with missile strikes, no matter where they are located, including in the US itself.
Anything short of that amounts to surrender.
Indeed, it was a spectacle to enjoy: Europe’s so-called “leaders” squashed into kiddie chairs, craning their necks like schoolchildren before the headmaster, desperate to flatter Trump while he lorded over them from behind his desk. And just imagine their faces when they compared that pitiful scene to Putin’s red-carpet welcome in Alaska, military escort and all, the whole imperial pageantry. The contrast wasn’t just telling, it was downright humiliating for the vassals begging to be included. Now what have they got, they get to buy weapons from the US while destroying their own economies, caring nothing for their own populance.
WEF branded Globalists understand there are too many Europeans. To them, Europe is a spot on a map, not the home of the Renaissance.
Elitist Europeans have centuries of practice in the arts of grovelling and kissing royalty's ass. It's what they love. Get buggered and then get paid. Bunch of prostitutes.
Populations in most European countries are declining, so your WEF Globalists can rest easy.
European elites have also got centuries of sailing and marching round the Global beating the shit out of everyone we meet.
'...beating the shit out of everyone we meet...' Not anymore - hence the daily tantrums.
I hope you're right.
There's nothing in Imperialism for ordinary Europeans, but our political classes really enjoy posturing.
The WEF prefers a global population of 500 million.
Somehow NATO skipped "beating the shit" out of Russia. Preferring to let the Banderans die.
How's that Red Sea operation going against the Houthi?
Britain and France couldn't even use their air power to defeat Khadaffi without the US needing to supply them with everything except the aircraft and the pilots. That was in 2011. NATO hasn't gotten stronger since.
Said the same in the comments of the article before the summit.
Like it or lump it, this is the TACO administration 🌮 and anyone that refuses to understand that is just going to be led by the nose by morons for 4 years. 🌮🧐🤬
I think the whole point of the meeting was for that 10 minutes that Trump and Putin were alone in the car. So many succubus' on both sides, so many people in power with agendas it was a good sign that they could talk off the record for 10mins at least.
You can see some of the sympathy that Putin has for Trump, so maybe Trump said privately he is trying but so many in US gov want conflict, which could buy him some time. Now I don't think Don can play 4d chess but if you were Trump and had 10 min alone with Putin without the cameras what would you say?
>You can see some of the sympathy that Putin has for Trump
Well, June 1st happened.
Two options:
1) Trump ordered/approved it. In which case Trump is the enemy and Putin is a traitor for having sympathy for him.
2) Trump was completely out of the loop and is not governing anything. In which case it is pointless to talk to him and Putin is an idiot.
Which is it?
I don't see other options.
So,
Ukraine won't make concessions to Russia.
Russia won't stop the SMO until Ukraine meets its rather modest expectations.
Neither side is compromising. That's great.
The inevitable trajectory of this equation is either an eventual Ukrainian capitulation or the stage is set for a greater war if Europe decides to reinforce Ukraine before it topples over.
If Ukraine does not cede to Russia's unshakable demands, it will capitulate without reinforcements. That puts a lot of pressure on Europe to decide either to let Ukraine fall or to link up with it before it's too late. But Europe is far from ready for war.
Hence, as long as Russia doesn't compromise and keeps fighting, it will inevitably end up defeating Ukraine even though that wasn't planned.
Sometimes, in life, the best things are those that are unplanned.
I'd like to see Ukraine soundly defeated militarily, rather than just losing four oblasts.
It's the best option.
"I'd like to see Ukraine soundly defeated militarily"
And so it will be. Keep positive and don't wobble in your hope comrade.
I may wobble all the way, Grr. lol
But I do know, as Tuco says, "when it's time to shoot, shoot, don't talk."
https://youtu.be/QReisbS28Kc?t=7292
So, not Tuco from Breaking Bad?
That's what I thought, welcome Breaking Bad fan.
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan María Ramírez, the ugly one from "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".
https://youtu.be/JrYtD7gSWsI?si=BiirHi_SKQwh2PAJ
Tight! Tight!
And it sounds like the one that it suits Russia to appear to be driven by western numbskull intransigence, to end up achieving!
'More in sadness than in anger we, the RF, now control all europe. They just would not shut up and sit down and talk nicely. Hey ho.
Russia will not invade Europe, unfortunately. Sadly, as the East now understands how to properly develop a well-functioning economy, knowledge actively lost in the West since neoliberalism and the worship of private greed and neofeudalism.
Doesn't matter what Europe bleats, Russia is not going to spend Russian blood to once again liberate ungrateful asseholes from fascism.
Why would they save Europe? Leave them to stew in their own filth
Oh I expect dominos to drop of their own accord.
You don’t have to invade Western Europe to defeat them… They are self-harming every day they tie their futures on the Ukrainian anchor, headed straight to the bottom like the Heart of the Ocean in Titanic… Yet another UK failure 😂
South Korea coming to the US to rebuild a few shipyards. We no longer understand.
Although I know Russia isn't going to take all of the Banderan territories, it would be nice to see the RF, or any other army, burn down and then salt the earth where that travesty of "The Last Supper" at the opening ceremony for the Summer Games occurred last year.
Denis, the Russian goals were never restricted to the 4 oblasts. They also included demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine as well as forcing neutrality (no NATO or any European forces in the country). Yes, the only territorial goals were indeed the full capture of the 4 oblasts, but it should never be forgotten that there were other goals as well.
Yes, Victor.
I can smell it in the air; it's the smell of Victory, Victor. lol
Gotta love the smell of Napalm in the morning.https://youtu.be/k26hmRbDQFw?t=89
This is great.
But I like poison in my food, mlk.
This is good. lol
>Yes, the only territorial goals were indeed the full capture of the 4 oblasts, but it should never be forgotten that there were other goals as well.
One has to be an absolute moron to believe that.
You just claimed that Putin went in with the goal of annexing the 4 oblasts. Those particular 4 oblasts and no other.
Which is so idiotic I don't know where to even start.
These four oblasts ended up the (quite historically revisionist) "goals" when the initial operation was botched thanks to sabotage from the Kremlin and Nikolaev (and thus Odessa) was not taken, Kharkov was a complete fiasco, and even though Chernigov was encircled and Sumy could have easily been taken, the Kremlin ordered a retreat.
Under more competent leadership the whole left bank plus Nikolaev and Odessa would have been Russian by April 1st 2022. But they weren't.
And then Putin refused to mobilize while the enemy was regrouping and rearming, the Kharkov fiasco of September 2022 happened, and he had to salvage the situation somehow, thus the formal annexations of those four regions.
However, he still refused to properly mobilize, and continues to do so to this day, and he also refused to strike anything that would make a difference and collapse the AFU, so those four oblasts are all that is on the menu due to these self-imposed (for what reasons?) constraints.
But claiming that they were to goal of the SMO can only come from someone who is so deep into Putin fanboyism to be completely beyond any hope for recovery.
The sole real reason the SMO started was the imminent prospect of US missiles being situated in Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov. Well, guess what -- none of those regions are among the "4 oblasts" and US missiles are situated there, did fire into Russia, and will be firing a lot more in the near future. So much for goals and accomplishing them...
Sharp as knife in your argumentations, GM!
No one dares to discuss this with you.
Truth is sometimes hard to swallow…
Yep. Shaking with fear.
Still. You dont discuss those matters sincerely, Victor.
Not with trolls, no.
Also, you might recall that you and I have discussed these matters "sincerely" on multiple occasions - occasions I considered to be honest attempts at coming to a common understanding. This is not true with our concern troll - I tried many times until I realised that he was not really an honest broker but had an agenda. So I refuse to cooperate by feeding him.
I agree, and well said, Mikey. GM has an exceptionally detailed understanding of the matter in question. He's a great source of information, which opposes the dominant narrative, bringing a new light on things. Truth should reign above all else, no matter what hole you find it in.
"GM has an exceptionally detailed understanding of the matter in question."
As do Hasbara propagandists who are paid to disseminate "truth", not with the objective of actually arriving at truth through dialogue but to instill doubt in the target audience. This is also true of "concern trolls" like GM who fake "concern" for Russia but in reality their purpose is to provide arguments to cause doubts among the population, thus undermining the government and its stated objectives. I refuse to participate in such intercourse. If you want to, fine. It serves his purposes well.
What I like and respect about you, Victor, is your uncompromising sense of loyalty towards that which you believe in. I don't agree with several things GM says, but I do see some parallels with what other writers say. So I try to balance conflicting viewpoints until I get enough evidence to tilt my view one way or the other. Grr is correct that my views are "wobbly" as I try to make sense of two or more conflicting ideas to get to the truth. So I can agree with you or GM, or anyone else at the same time or not. But what is common among all of us is our desire for Russia to be able to live at peace, free of Western nefarious intent upon it. So, in the end, we're all on the same side with opposing views on how to get there.
Best wishes, Victor.
Re: "I'd like to see Ukraine soundly defeated militarily, rather than just losing four oblasts. It's the best option."
What do you mean? That Russia conquering the entire Ukraine is a possible outcome? Erased from the map, and fully assimilated into "Sovietzky rasee"? :). Or this not the objective, because it would violate the original SMO's objective?
If it takes that, then yes. However Russia does not want the Banderite Western regions. Let them be taken back by Poland, Hungary, etc or just leave them to rot.
That's right, Western Ukraine, with its Nazis fleeing there, Azov, etc.
You can safely put the EU in the basket as a rotten fascist egg.
It would cause major problems for the EU, and first and foremost for Poland, with a large portion of the remaining Nazis likely to disappear towards Germany...with all their heavy weapons, these experienced fighters would likely pose a major problem for ANY leftist. But their police would certainly need a lot of armored vehicles, and an anti-aircraft weapon fits in any trunk. Just wait until something falls from the sky in Berlin, Warsaw, or Paris/London.
Because one thing is certain: the rest of Western Ukraine will be a problem for the club of the "willing," the willing failures.
Not forgetting the main instigators the Empire of Lies. The two muppet US senators going overseas to monger for war on nuclear powers. In 2014 two Republican senators visited Ukraine John McCain and Lindsey, Graham. Here's what they said
Lindsey!: Your fight is our fight! 2017 will be the year of offense! All of us will go back to Washington and we will push the case against Russia. Enough of Russian aggression! It is time for them to pay a heavier price!
McCain: I believe you will win! I am convinced you will win, and we will do everything we can to provide you with what you need to win.
Why would western Ukraine surrender? Its a gift, not a failure. A platform to kinetically attack Russia! They know Putin does not have the stomach to take every part of Ukraine so what is left will fight forever launching terror attacks and drones into Russia for as long as they can.
Western arms companies want to test new gear, intelligence agencies want to try new tricks and banks still want to launder money.
Why should Ukraine surrender - they should be crash-diving their nuke program or perhaps the west will assist them to get a few nukes to force Russia to first-strike or negotiate.
I have yet to read a post giving a compelling reason why Ukraine should capitulate even after losing all land east of the Dnieper. They will make a new army, be given money to survive as long as they keep Russia busy. In the west's eyes every Ukrainian that dies is one less Russian. What exactly is this compelling reason why Ukraine will stop the war when the west wants them to kill each other?
I am rooting for Russia, but its like cheering for your left-handed boxer who decides not to use his left hand as he is just so confident he will win; tough to watch.
I believe Russia will continue the operation until what you suggest is impossible for the Ukrainians and Europe to accomplish. Even if they take the South and the East, they will not ever leave what remains of Ukraine in a position to rebuild its forces, maintain a nazi presence and/or allow European troops to base their operations in the country - whatever that takes.
The Russians will not have to occupy Western Ukraine to achieve that - they can force a regime change, create a temporary civilian/military governing junta to manage the demilitarisation/denazification process and prepare for elections of a Russia-friendly, neutral government.
There is more than one option to gain their objectives without the necessity of a military occupation.
Reduced to a marginal EU-dependent welfare zone, populated by the last remnants of Banderites and embittered amputees, clinging to a landlocked rump state, left only with fading memories of foxholes now buried with their dead & rotting Nazi flags & paraphernalia in the old Donbas front.
Yes. And with Russian hunter killer teams doing their good work.
It won't happen. They sold their economy to the Western oligarchs. The day the war ends it will be flooded with 3rd world immigrants to help pillage the country...and the dreams of the Banderites will die
Leaving them to rot is what Russia did to Idlib province in Syria. We can see how that turned out. This time, that rump of Ukraine will continue to launch drones and terrorize people until they are stopped. They will not surrender and what if one day they announce they have produced a crude nuke - would Russia still attempt to take all of Ukraine? Russia thinks they have all the time in the world - they do not.
Jukraine is not Syria. No similarity between the two situations.
I agree, that Ukraine as a rump is far more dangerous then Syria ever was.
It will be demilitarised and closely controlled. Chechnya style.
Exactly! What I have been saying for more than three years.
Romania gets Moldova as a consolation prize if it kicks NATO out and absndons the EU.
More likely Romania stays in NATO and the EU but occupies Moldova to protect/stabilise it.
Logic tells us that Russia will want to demilitarize all of today's Ukraine but not hold the whole territory. The Galician Banderite heartlands full of fanatical "nationalists" would be too costly for Russia to occupy and police. Rather Russia will let those areas rot economically and leave it to the Poles and EU to sort out. The ethno fascist dreams of greater Galicia aka "Ukraine" will no longer be Russias problem.
I agree Nick.
West Ukraine has nothing Russia wants.
Let the West have it, so they can pretend they won because "Ukraine survived".
And let it join the EU, which would absolutely tank Von Der Leyen's empire.
Despite being the root cause of this fiasco, the US is going to walk away relatively Scot free. Unless you count losing NATO as an alliance, which I personally do.
The advantage of being an empire is that you can use proxies and throw them away when finished with them.
Prevent Ukraine from being used as a forward NATO base in the future.
It's the right thing to do, right?
For these and other reasons...an SMO without the capture of Odessa is a lost SMO in the minds of the Russian population.
And an Odessa under NATO influence will ignite a real war, because Turkey will, or MUST, allow foreign warships to pass through the Bosporus or withdraw from NATO.
Turkey for ever behaving like the littlest boy in class, desperately trying to join the big players instead of investing in forward-looking plans.
The "little boy" has the biggest weapon NATO to Greece in his hand.
But the little boy dreams of a great empire, whose wish is currently occupied by the teacher's favorite (USA) class leader, Israel. The leader probably knows a few things that could be dangerous for the teacher, even if they are the teacher's roommates in the palace of power.
Without Russia's resources and raw materials, including steel, Erdogan's heavy industry would be at an END, or rather, HE would be completely dependent on the West (EU) in many ways. One of the reasons why he smiles at Putin and at the same time tries to pee on his leg...but usually ends up hitting himself.
But even Erdogan will find an end, with luck—a PURELY biological one.
People trust Erdogan as much as they trust Trump. He's a snake and his behaviour has caught up with him. I'd loved to see him ousted and replaced by a leader who takes Turkey out of NATO
I think Turkey is going to be a bell wether for countries realising an Eastern orientation offers more than a Western one.
Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Serbia, Hungary, Pakistan and Thailand are other possible first movers.
I'd like to see what Erdoğan will do now the Zionists have made it plain they've got their eyes on Northern Cyprus. Apparently they're alleging that the enclave is bristling with Iranian and Hamas terrorists.
Exactly. Odessa is the absolute key. If it stays in Ukrainian (translation: Nato) hands, it will be a base for dirty tricks against Russia forever more. The Black Sea must become a Russian lake.
That's why Peskov again described Odessa as a predominantly Russian nation in his statement to journalists last week.
It's possibly a trick to get Ukraine to the point where its reserves are running low and it has to withdraw troops from the Odessa area to the front. And partisan activity in the WDA is increasing, as can be seen from the missile targets. The catacombs could become a problem, as could the Nazis' rage, which would rather destroy everything than lose, a la 1945.
I believe the latter is the main reason holding the Russians back.
Because for almost 1.5 years, the Russians have been ONLY about 45 km from Odessa as the crow flies, without advancing any further!
Totally agree, Steg. How Putin gets there is the question, it seems to me. Military occupation of Odessa will be (violently) opposed by rump Ukraine and NATO and will take Russia some considerable time and lives to accomplish. It seems inconceivable (to me) that rump Ukraine and NATO would ever cede Odessa (and thus the entire Black Sea) to Russia in a peace agreement.
The Russians have been only 45 km as the crow flies from Odessa since around 2023, without moving a single step further.
But Sylenski has to move more and more troops to the front line; one just has to wait until he has to withdraw the most combat-ready troops from the Odessa area...
Because those reserves are still there and on the border with Belarus; until now, Sylenski couldn't and wasn't allowed to deploy these troops, which are so urgently needed at the front.
But Russia is using this time until HE has to, or the surrender comes first? Is Russia using the time and destroying as many bases around Odessa as possible, AND the partisans are getting stronger and possibly taking care of the catacombs where these troops have their bases so far. These catacombs are over 35 km long beneath the city, but only about 30% are known, which means that it is very likely that the partisans have found or will find an as yet unknown entrance. Think of the pipeline that was used. The Russians certainly did not miss the Odessa problem!
I don't understand this.
Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey are all in NATO.
All have sizable Black Sea coastlines.
So how does taking Odessa make the Black Sea a Russian lake?
Turkey has not really been an enemy to Russia because Russia supplies it with all of its iron ore, that in turn underpins Turkey's heavy industry, the thing that has made Turkey a formidable modern country.
It helps that Turkey is so dependent on Russia because they're in possession of the straights that guard the entrance to the sea.
Despite being in NATO, Turkey has kept NATO gunboats out of the sea, while Russia can send it's smaller corvettes in via canals.
The other two countries have small Black Sea coastlines. Russia's coastline, if it landlocked Ukraine, would be over half of the sea area.
Plus just ask Washington why it tried to secretly lease from Ukraine the port of Sevastopol back in 2014, out from under Russia.
IMHO this is REALLY what caused Russia to annex Crimea, to keep it out of Washington's hands.
@JO
Good question, but I think R. Baker, above/below, has the right answer. FWIW, with Turkish dependence on Russia and if all of Sevastopol, the rest of Crimea, and Odessa are controlled by Russia, I think the overwhelming balance of power shifts to Russia. It also takes Ukraine out of the game. Happy to hear the counter.
Russia wants a negotiated settlement to meet its demands. The demands are simple enough. Revert Ukraine back to the internationally developed conditions of independence which were enshrined in the constitution up until the 2014 NATO organized coup.
Failing that. Russia will ensure the previously constitutionally guaranteed rights for the Russian speaking areas by taking over governing those parts of Ukraine and making the rest of the country ungovernable.
Of course, NATO could just give up on the Ukraine project and negotiate the terms of what will happen, even if they don't like it.
No need to negotiate too early. There's gotta be at least another hundred billion in cash that can be cycled through the world's largest laundromat.
Never leave cash on the table.
Actually, it is a lot more than one hundred billion. The latest move is to take the three hundred billion in sequestered Russian assets stored in western banks and turn them over to Zelenskty for him to distribute. As he sees fit since all such funds are unaudited.
Even better. That's triple the skim!
The problem with that plan is Russia will take it's pound of flesh out of Ukraine. Good-bye, Odessa. And if the three insignificant Baltic nations need to be reorganized NATO isn't going to go to war to defend Katja Kallas.
There are several Swiss banks just salivating over that possibility. Of course, for image sake, Ukr will get a couple billion of it.
>Russia wants a negotiated settlement to meet its demands.
There can be no such thing.
The minimal acceptable for Russia condition is total erasure of Ukrainian statehood and complete de-Ukrainization of the territory.
Who in Ukraine or the West will agree to that?
Nobody, ever.
An obvious corollary: if the Kremlin is not demanding that and is not preparing to make it happen by force, then in the Kremlin they are some combination of idiots and traitors. Not clear what proportions exactly and which is worse.
Basically Russia wants Ukraine to return to the constitutional order and statehood it had after being granted independence. You know......when it had the status of an independent state (although a failed one but that's just how Ukraine rolls).
Of course, after the 2014 revolution it lost that status is now a self destructing toy of the western powers.
Basically Russia then wants the impossible.
There can be no Ukraine that is not an anti-Russia. The evolution of independent Ukraine should have proven that beyond any doubt.
Now imagine an independent Ukraine after four years (and counting) of large-scale war against Russia…
Absolutely correct. Ukraine is now fundamentally anti Russian. That's why the Russian speaking territories are now no longer part of Ukraine. And that's why Russia feels it has to permanently eliminate Ukraine as a military threat. Which includes making NATO forces in Ukraine such a hot potato that it won't even seriously consider a presence there.
Martin Armstrong, the famous forecaster, predicts that the country called "Ukraine" will cease to exist in 2026.
any predictions for the Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank, southern Lebanon?
Armstrong spent 8 years in prison in NYC for not handing over his code to the CIA/Mossad. He was accused of contempt of court. He was only released when his case went to the Supreme Court.
His articles avoid mentioning Israel or Jews for obvious reasons. But he mentions Neocons a lot. Same thing.
sorry about that, didn't know he'd been to jail! I read some of his articles a while back, absolutely amazing. Isr*el is the US' proxy in the ME, while the US is beholden to Empire. a vicious tree-some.
Denazi and demilitarization were 2 objectives. They might have to go all the way to accomplish those
*must, not "might"
I expect the debellation. The Banderan exile government will be operating in Lviv, Poland.
Not so certain the Poles will accept that. There is no love between them.
I can't assure you that Ukraine would never admit being defeated. Even as a "the last Ukrainian" would be dying in the "last trench," his last dying breath will be, "перемога"
I hope the Ukrainians who just want to live in peace survive Zelensky's madness. Too many innocents have died for the greed of the few.
Finland's dramatic shift from neutrality to NATO membership.
What is Finland's role in the Ukraine war?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cooOW1qt7Ng
To portray the President Stubb as the worthy successor to von der Leyen. Stubb is the deepest of the deepest.
A trivial point, but why do so many of these Euro-globalists have names that are not common to their original nations: what kind of Polish name is "Tusk" and how Finnish is "Stubb". Same with "Macron" and "Starmer". Almost as if they are aliens.
Family tree of Reptilians…
Stubb is an old Swedish, noble, name. His father was born in what now is Russia. Have followed him and he is well-educated, speaks english and german fluent and has been nurtured to be Finlands President as the stepping stone to a more global position.
Starmer is a wank, but he's our wank. It's an English name going back centuries.
Good point, it's likely they are 'aliens', or their grandparents/ family origins were. Boris Johnson's father's father was a Circassian of Caucasus origins of Turkish nationality, immigrating to London from Turkey around 1907 or so. I dare say the family name was not "Johnson", it was an assumed name.
Starmer's name is likely patrilineally German. There was a sizable German immigration to London from the Palatinate area of Germany in the 1720-1730's period. Plus the early Saxeburg -Gota dynasty (king Georges I-III) ruled over not just Britain but parts of Germany (incl Hesse).
That trench will be in London, France, or Miami, with the laundered money still flowing into his secret bank accounts.
Probably, not even that secret...
A 27 or so European collection of "the willing" just got through "agreeing" to send troops to Ukraine. Effectively this is EU-NATO, working for cash off the books.
Macron just notified the French medical establishment to "get ready" in 2026 for mass French casualties.
Macron's unaware that in the Ukraine theater, there are not tidy ambulance services on the front. If you get wounded there and cannot walk out, you're toast. The Fellows that come to evacuate you in turn need evacuation.
Picture instead gimletted frogs in dim lit Ukrainian mud puddles.
Like Jesse Ventura said in the movie "Predator": "you lose it here you're in a world of hurt".
Thankfully, Macron is still under that powerful Jean Bridgette Trogneaux cuffing that always arrives just in time to offer a helping pimp hand to adjust and rebalance poor little Emmanuel.
Well said, R.Baker. European incompetent leaders will blame their failed and broken economy on Russia and rally the citizens to war based on false premises. In reality, the only threat Europeans have is from their own inept and corrupt leaders, the enemy within.
Same threat we face here in the USSA... Chip
Same here in Canadistan, Chip.
As soon as NATO Europe rearms it will stick...each other.
That's how they roll.
There is no convincing evidence that Jean is a chick with a dick. His pimp slap was manly, though.
The West cannot stop Ukraine toppling over, that's just not possible. Your "inevitable trajectory" is wrong. The simple fact is that in the next 3-4 months Ukraine will have lost. The only thing that can change that outcome is if Russia itself decides to change their plans and that's extremely unlikely.
Europe is impotent, it has not the weapons, manpower or money to make any real difference.
Everyone knows that europeans are effete metrosexuals, nonces and ponces so effeminate that they make Liberace look like Mike Tyson. Not to mention, old.
However, european strategy since 1917 has been to get Americans to do their fighting for them.
That was ever always only the real plan here. What europeans lack in military power, they more than make up for in groveling and whispering campaigns.
I don't think they will succeed this time. America will back away from direct action in Ukraine, leaving it solely in European hands that purchase their weapons from US MIC. As Russia has won, America has no more use for Ukraine except as a profits generator for its MIC.
At every stage of this war, se have been duly reassured that the West is bluffing that escalation is reckless, unpopular, suicidal, impossible, etc..
The West escalates all the same. Unlike Russia, they are not bluffing. At every stage of this war, Russia has underestimated the sociopathy of the Western rulers.
The unplanned could very well explode in our faces the coming months.
The root causes to this prolonged War, failed SMO, is:
1. Russia hasnt managed the Information War. West is leading and dictates what the populace in West should think and passively agree on. There is NO counter-narrative reaching into the minds of the westerners. And therefore unelected von der Leyen and unelected Rutte can roam free and advocate forever War. The hated leaders Macron, Merz and Starmer can not be ousted and nowadys they can make people disappear or self-die (like the 7 nominees for AfD in Saxony).
2. Russia has totally failed in instilling FEAR into the western leaders. Macron can call Putin a flesh-eating vampire, Kallas can rewrite History and act like a maniac against Russia. Merz is harbouring revenge feelings for WW2. Starmer is talking about uk/little brits as if they are still controlling the World (could be true because of City of London).
Russia has reacted on provocations not acted in advance. I am fully aware of the game ”who started all this?” but we are beyond that now. West will try a shot on the Bear if they think it is weak. Scare them, please!
3. Russias failure to disrupt or destroy the supply-lines INTO Ukraine and in Ukraine (across Dniepr). The task could be impossible but have they even tried?
4. Lack of strategy for defeating Ukraine with blow to their weak spots and manouver of War. The attrition strategy is clear and bludgeon the Ukis in their trenches and fortresses in Donetsk will certainly decimate their strength and morale. But it is to easy to defend when Ukraine can see that the military goal is to liberate Donetsk - nothing more.
The FIRST thing Western dictatorships do is control the information space. So they banned PressTV, RT and Sputnik immediately. There's not much Russia can do to penetrate that firewall. Individual Westerners can make the effort - and risk being arrested for "disloyalty"; but when "pro-Russian" narratives are actively threatened with punishment and imprisonment (In fx Italy), then it's very hard to get any balanced view into the public sphere.
So the public are fed absolute BS, and even those who question part of it may often fall for the rest, because the BS is so comprehensive.
Russia has had moderate success in the global south in the information war, but in the West it is only the dissidents who are willing to take the actual risk to understand what is going on who learn.
There is literally nothing that Russia can do about that. I suppose a 'V' figure could infiltrate the BBC and shove a dvd into a scheduled broadcast, but I suspect that only works in movies.
Imagine "judging" something a success or failure based on what the corrupt corporate media (in the West) prints. My fellow Americans sadly deserve ALL the corruption and all the lies the politicians spew. It would be laughable, IF it wasn't so damm pitiful.
I dunno know how bad it's gotten in Western Europe in the last year, but the corporate propaganda machine was pretty bad last year, even so, many of the people I spoke with knew quite clearly that the media and the EU were lying to them.
Lately the UK has gone massively totalitarian fascist. We'll see what happens..
In the US, most of the people I know no longer pay much attention to the corporate propaganda machine. It's become too obvious. However, unlike the EU, we in the US can easily reach media on the Internet that is not blocked (like this site) so we can read news.
One of the issues I see today, is that we have as many ethnocentric people in the East as in the West. The political reality is far more complex than the "West" vs "Russia".
In reality, the West is broken up into two sides... the Globalist Financial Aristocrats (CABAL) that own the political machines in the EU and several European nations, plus the banks and the corporate propaganda machine... and a few nationalistic parties that are anti EU.... the people are likely still split.
The EU CABAL will try to fight Russia to the end as it is an existentialist affair for them.. so far... but there is no way they are going to force the citizens to go to war against Russia. There will be widespread revolutions and that's something the CABAL can not control.
In the US we're further down the road of cleansing the CABAL from our shores.
Anyone who calls Trump a "fool" or whatever, simply lacks the understanding of what is really going on. The American MAGA movement is actually aligned with Putin's Russia. We have the same enemies... the CABAL.
Look closely at how Trump is playing the game.. They tried to assassinate him twice.. came darn close once... so he has to step carefully, in a calibrated way, to dismantle the Deep State and the American faction of the CABAL, while he still needs the support of some RINOs...
It was Machiavelli who wrote:
"It should be borne in mind that there is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. The innovator makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new. Their support is lukewarm ... partly because men are generally incredulous, never really trusting new things unless they have tested them by experience."
This is exactly the path that Trump is on... he has the support of the majority of the people, but he is fighting the rear guard at every step.
Insightful writing!
I think the jury is still out on that assessment. Time will tell. In the meantime watch what Trump actually does, not what he says.
I think that both you and Mikey need to understand that Russia really, truly does not give a shit what Europe or the UK think or accept as truth - let them drown in their own filthy propaganda - it means nothing to them anymore as there remains no economic incentive to carry on any kind of relationship. That's the advantage of being sovereign, free of any dependencies and a winner. Russia has turned its attention to the East, completely turning away from the West.
I was replying to Mikey.
And I think you are wrong on that - as Putin said recently, "We don't have enemy countries, only hostile elites", or words to that effect. Russia would prefer to have good relations with every country, and part of that is that the populations of those countries understand what has really happened, and is really happening.
If Russia really "truly does not give a shit", then they wouldn't restart RT and Sputnik broadcasts back into Europe if the ban was lifted - but they absolutely will, even though that costs them significant resources.
I long ago wished that the USA could be carved out of the Earth and sent on its own way through space, leaving the rest of us alone - but that is not how the RW(tm) operates.
And Russia, China & the rest are painfully aware that we are all trapped together on this fragile ball of a generation ship, and the West is loaded to the gills with various types of WMDs.
They very much do give a shit, even as they might wish they didn't have to. Just as I feel about the USA.
I think you make a good point. Russia has always noted that its problem with any unfriendly country has to do with that country's ruling elite, not its people. The problem is that the people of these countries often have little or no power to make change, so the hatred of Russia by their elite goes on and spoils the relation with Russia. So in effect it is not the people that Russia is turning from, but their governments - I should probably have made that clearer, although the turn from Europe will have permanent negative impact on those countries' people. So yes, Russia will continue to fund RT, Sputnik, etc as a vehicle to influence the populations, but it will no longer take active steps to improve relations with those countries until perhaps the people are able to make changes. Having said that, however, it must be noted that the example of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline being proposed will permanently turn off the tap to Europe, taking away even the option to change and leaving Europe with continuing high energy prices for the foreseeable future. Such serious and irreversible actions on the part of Russia are a clear indicator that it has given up and lost patience with these elites and has left them to their own misery, and unfortunately, their populations as well.
Thanks for bringing that up.
It does seem rather permanent. The problem with oil/gas fields is that once started, you can't really turn it on and off like a tap. I'm nowhere near an expert in the field, lol, but I've gathered something about the internal pressures will collapse the entire field. So it had to go SOMEWHERE. And China and Russia needed some closer cooperation. Nothing like a pipeline for cementing long-term relations.
Perhaps if Europe BEGGED - like Trumpy seems to imagine India is going to do to him - Russia could find some spare capacity to flow their way in the future, but they would also have to be "Denazified and demilitarised"...
Can't see the CIA being cleared out of Western Europe as 'easily' as it is from Ukraine though.
Even when NATO implodes.
Europe needs to purge all the US NGOs, gain control of the media space, build its own internet capacity and social media, elect economic-nationalists (And avoid the racialist ones, because the Global south/BRICS aren't going to be too happy about more white-supremacism from Europe), and basically rebuild some pride in themselves, that isn't based upon hatred of the 'Other'.
Tall order, and there's very little sign of that. Fico, Corbyn, and that Belgium leftist party, and Wagenknecht... slim pickings. :(
like the 7 nominees for AfD in Saxony).
That's a real head scratcher Mikey. I heard some were elderly and that other's passing was due to natural causes. But 7, in short order, doesn't look natural to me.
Its natural but also a sign - peoples getting stressed to death?
Yeah sure that is it. All 7 died from stress. And you wonder why the corporate media tell such bald-faced lies? Because there are so many people ready to accept anything because their ego's cannot handle being called a conspiracy theorist.
It was the election in North-Rhine Westphalia (my fault) and they say that two of them had severe conditions from before, one died of heart-failure and two more of problems with kidney. Its off-topic so I shouldnt have brought it up. What is sinister is that Elon Musk has said that the coming election, next year, is crucial for the Germans. So I expect rather tough playing from the german establishment the coming year.
"But 7, in short order, doesn't look natural to me."
Yup. And it worked.
I think that Putin waited for Trump to start negotiating. Because of the NewCons, Trump can't. Putin omis going to go ahead and liberate as much of the Banderan territories as he needs and wreck the rest.
3. Russias failure to disrupt or destroy the supply-lines INTO Ukraine and in Ukraine (across Dniepr). The task could be impossible but have they even tried?
I am sure Rus know how well built those bridge are, probably have some design plans somewhere. If it is impossible, then why try?
What would be achieved, in terms of the attriting the Ukie army? They just stay on the other side of the Dnieper, unharmed.
Not blowing the bridges might indicate their intentions to use them, which is what i believe is the case.
” What would be achieved, in terms of the attriting the Ukie army?”
Avoiding rational thinking is not going to win any War…
The only way western supply can get to the front is OVER a bridged Dnieper.
With all those troops EAST of Dnieper - how will they able to ”stay on the other side of Dnieper” i suppose you mean the West side?
They would be caught. And then defeat. Capitulation. End of story.
Instead we see village after village in the Russian new Oblasts (ob)liberated one by one.
Simple fact:
* Russia see this conflict as a small military operation (SMO) liberating the four oblasts. They see no need to DEFEAT Ukraine. It is an obvious objective - isnt it?
* West and Ukraine see this conflict as existential and will make whatever sacrifices it takes to continue the War and defeat Russia.
One of the goals of Rus is demilitarisation, above anything else destruction of soldiers.
You can run around and chase them or let them come to you, by crossing the Dnepr in this case.
>I am sure Rus know how well built those bridge are, probably have some design plans somewhere. If it is impossible, then why try?
The bridges are not the primary problem, the Polish border is
>Russia hasnt managed the Information War
>Russia has totally failed in instilling FEAR
Good that you mention those things together, because putting them side by side exposes brilliantly the schizophrenic nature of Russian policy.
On the one hand we have the refusal to invest into soft power, with the predictable results that others who do win major victories over Russia without even fighting.
The thinking in Russia somehow seems to be that soft power doesn't matter, we can always send the tanks to take care of a problem.
But in the same time there is also a refusal to use force at the level necessary to solve the problems.
Well, you can't have it both ways if you want to survive -- can't be "white and fluffy" while thinking that you can always send the tanks. It does not compute, does it...
It is interesting to compare those 4 statements with Israel:
* Information War
* Instilling fear
* Cut the supplies
* Clear strategy
One can add a Russian principle to ”spare civilians” against Israels ”all are enemies”
Although Israel has a clear advantage in the information war, due to the circumstances in MSM, they are despised by many people because they exterminate civilians and dont follow any rules but their owns.
Israels ability to instill fear is unquestionable. They kill freely around the world and bomb whoever challenge them. Houti goverment wiped out. Every leader in Hamas, Hesbollah and a couple of Iranian top guns eliminated. It also mean they trigger defiance in those suffering Israels policy.
They definitely cut the supplies from Iran and hampered them when they bombed Syria for decades.
Israel has a clear strategy and that is extermination instead of peace and co-operation. Are they succeeding? Doubtful. They have expanded their territory but still has 6 millions palestinian inside Palestine/Israel denied of civil rights and opposing the repressive politics.
Ukraine regime are treating their Russian speaking inhabitants like Palestinians. Porochenko even threatened them with expulsion and no one ask what will happen if Russia withdraw from the four Oblasts.
It would be easy for Putin to adress those questions clearly. And should have been since 2014.
Not so sure that a complete Ukrainian defeat this is the best possible outcome although it would probably be better than a surviving revanchist rump Ukraine with sufficient territory and resources to represent a long term threat to Russia. Still such a scenario might well be another example of a war won and peace lost.
A much better solution would be an Austrian-style neutrality where the indefectible Ukrainians can engage in nation building. But to get there (as was the case with Austria) a first step might need to be unconditional surrender and Russian occupation.
Another insightful comment. ”A War won and Peace lost” is sadly not discussed anywhere.
unconditional surrender.
"...or the stage is set for a greater war if Europe decides to reinforce Ukraine before it topples over." Not possible, full stop... Chip
Ukraine certainly is not going to win anything on its own. That said, let's see what NATO does before declaring victory to be at hand.
Who in the f#$k is going to go fight for the Eurocrats?
Remember this song?
"It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no millionaire's son, no, no
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no fortunate one, no"
I doubt the Western Globalist Financial Aristocracy will get many people to fight THEIR war with Russia. More likely, they'll end up hanging from Milan Style street lamps.
"even if it wasn't planned?" Details, details.
Putin does not want all of Ukraine, he just wants the Eastern Oblasts. They hold the majority of Russian ethnics living in Ukraine. Theyn were the ones being pounded by Kiev mercenaries after Maidan. Putin would not let them suffer! Don't forget that the peoples of Crimea and the Eastern Oblasts voted in a referendum to rejoin Russia. The precedent for the validity of such right, is the breakup of Serbia in 1999 accomplished by the US military and Clinton!
It seems to me, Denis, that Russia’s reluctance to just break Ukraine, in a brutal fashion, stems from a fear that such a move would create unbearable domestic pressure on the Europeans to intervene directly. Putin does not want this war to get out of control; he really doesnt. So, what he decided to do, instead, was to slowly and methodically grind down Ukraine’s military (and demographic) potential, boiling the frog, such that the Europeans did not realize a point of no return when it wa s reached. We may be at such a point.
Thanks, Brixton. I get your point.
Someone should tell the Orange Shabbos goy that he managed to stop 8 wars, not 7, with the latest being the rapproachment between India and China. He is now fully entitled to win the Nobel Idiot Prize. /sarcoff
tRump the zionist Asshole is a delusional clown. What's so horrible is the deaths he causes.
Eleven more casualties recently on that speedboat off Venezuela. There was not enough fuel capacity for that boat to reach the US, nor could Americans determine if there were drugs aboard, after it's sunk.
It was likely a Venezuelan military reconnaissance boat probing the extent of the American blockade.
Effectively the US is blockading Venezuela. Trying to intimidate and prevent Chinese ships from taking on oil there, and munitions from coming in.
It appears to be a "starve out", to effect regime change and possible invasion.
Trump's view of the event, frame by frame, was likely from the WH situation room. He almost surely gave direct go-ahead for the rub-out.
remember the pathetic 2011 PR photograph of Clinton, Obama and friends in the Situation Room (some 'situation' indeed), practically salivating over the assault on bin Laden - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_Room_(photograph)
Indeed, the imagery comes to mind and makes me cringe. I don't see how those people can sleep at night. It's a lesson for all of us, I guess, to maintain vigil over our consciences and not rent them out.
that image to me at the time was one of the clearest examples of PR, or rather brainwashing. totally synthetic, pretending to be a scene from a Hollywood production. terrible.
That whole Bin Laden "take-out" story stank.
indeed it did. but the tap had opened and the deluge of public mis-, dis- and false information has become more and more invasive.
Sociopaths are untroubled by any attacks of conscience.
Indeed, ready to kill without any moral inhibition.
Superb write-up. American politics has been smoke and mirrors and a litany of lies for decades--but that final clip of Trump is magnificent. In a perverse way he is awe inspiring. He is unquestionably the King of political BS. But there is also another characteristic of American politics--no one accepts responsibility, admits error, is held accountable or fired. There is always someone else to blame. I remember hearing a Chinese guy say that what's great about their system is there is only one party. If something is screwed up the people know exactly who to blame, the CPC. So things get fixed. He went on to say, in America you have two parties and when something is screwed up it's always the other party's fault--nothing gets fixed. I had to think about that one a second or two, before the light of recognition went on in my head.
And what it takes to succeed as a CPC member is based not on political awareness, shit-flinging, lies and deception, but on talent, high intelligence, broad proven performance and political expertise. The CPC could be more accurately called a technocracy as a result, communist in name only.
Don't get too carried away by enthusiasm for the Chinese system.
The big problems of a one-party state are, first, corruption and secondly, weakness of checks and balances. Right now, their leaders are far better than ours, but no system is perfect.
Have you taken a honest look at the staggering level of corruption in the US and EU? Russia and China can get things done on time and on budget, we can not. They can crush billionaire oligarchs that get out of line. Our governments just shake them down for pennies.
Stop listening to presstitutes.
I'd like this comment twice if I could.
This persistent position that America = great and everyone else = crap is pure propaganda, much like the oft-repeated idea that Russian/Chinese military tech is low quality, even as it destroys all comers in Ukraine.
I can't even see one like on the comment 😉
Don't even get me started on the wonders of NATO material, especially its can't shoot anything but the taxapayer's wallets Air defense... 🙄🤭🤫
Occam: it sounds very similar, perhaps even exactly the same, as the belief that the United Kingdom is indeed United or Great Britain; Great. In truth, they're neither.
As much as I am beginning to despise Trump. He is the One-Eyed King ruling the blind.
How we managed to elect or appoint the most venal and
incompetent bureaucracies managing the affairs of 900 million people on two continents and 34 nations will be worthy of academic studies for millenia.
"They did what?".
To paraphrase Obama, "you didn't elect that"!
The Western political system is pure smoke and mirrors in this day and age, a charade for the easily lured who believe there's substantial difference between the Red and the Blue, while both are owned and managed by Big Money Interests. Politics was kidnapped by corporate interests a long time ago, which essentially is resulting in states (a superpower nonetheless) exercising a very aggressive form of the so-called 'predatory capitalism' around the globe.
Name some Western governments who've been executing people-friendly, i.e. populist policies in the last few years and you'll know which countries still uphold democracy, at least to some extent.
Well stated.
I'm not carried away at all. You say the one-party state's weakness is corruption - what about the two-party state? No country can claim to be free of corruption. I consider the USA as well as most of the so-called "democracies" of the West as thoroughly corrupt - far more than in China. At least in China, when they uncover corruption, even at the highest level, they root it out and severely punish (sometimes by death) the perpetrators no matter their office. Who is held responsible in America? If you don't know the answer to that, I pity you. And weakness of checks and balances? You clearly have no idea of the Chinese system. As for the quality of its leaders, you have to understand that their quality is increasing over time because their system as it evolves over time is becoming more and more able to keep weak and/or corrupt leaders out.
Yes, of course China, as any other country, has its problems, but the fact is that they are far better positioned to deal with those problems than those in the West.
There are sound reasons why China is the number one economy in the world.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
I used to believe that (crap) because its what i was told all my life . But from what I've seen, (in a lot of years) corruption is spread, more or less evenly throughout the human species, and that there is no special principle or power of a "two party system" that wards off corruption..Our system is perfectly corrupt and you may notice one day, that its "two party " in name only.The only thing they really " balance out " is how to spread the graft around ..they take turns and to mock us further they tell us to choose between them.
Most CPC leaders are engineers or mathematicians. Most American politicians are lawyers
Interesting too to observe the surrounding smiling sycophants, hanging on to his every word as though they're listening to some source of divine wisdom, but then again, I guess their pay cheques depend on it. Without the power of high office he would be told to eff off and laughed out of the room.
@Simon Robinson
The look on Vance's face in that Trump clip is quite interesting. More like "dude, WTF?!" than sycophancy.
Trump is going to be like Robert Maxwell and Jimmy Savile.
The minute he dies everyone will pile in on his memory and tear him to pieces.
6 months after he dies no one will admit voting for him and his friendship with Epstein will be common wisdom.
https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1963617871281438731
This came across my screen last night. I've not personally done any background checking besides confirming the named DOJ official exists (Joseph Schnitt, Acting Deputy Chief of the DOJ’s Office of Enforcement Operations), he was recorded blabbing his take on how the Epstein file is being purged of names & video evidence implicating "conservatives" (Rs and R financial backers) in the Epstein operation. The statements were made to a lady he met online who recorded their "date". Additionally, he is documented as having lied to his bosses in an email re: having told her what his job at Justice was when asked by management WTF he had done? Oops. Don't think he'll be getting his government retirement now?
https://mdavis19881.substack.com/p/breaking-epstein-cover-up-caught?triedRedirect=true
It's just fucking monstrous, the whole thing!
And the Dems are as guilty as the Repubs I have no doubt.
Let's never forget that Epstein was a Mossad asset.
https://francesleader.substack.com/p/edge-foundation?triedRedirect=true
Epstein was into a lot more than the widely publicized sexual favors/entrapment/influence operations everyone in the media is obsessed about.
Epstein's relationships with the various billionaire "tech bros" and the "Edge Foundation" seminars and other meetings he organized among them going back to the 1990s are still flying under most people's RADAR. Considering that all of those people are still in place & only growing in wealth, power & influence, they REALLY do bear a closer look.
"no one accepts responsibility, admits error, is held accountable or fired."
This is true of any government system which has a large, unelected group of bureaucrats doing the actual day to day business of government.
The basic reason we see China and Russia being so well run is that their respective leaders are extremely well educated, and are not lax in putting the fear of God and certain death into those bureaucrats who might imagine "they" should actually be running the country.
America just does that the other way round...
Democracy, as a practical matter, is basically an exercise in passing the buck, in avoiding responsibility. Everyone in power claims to answer to and derive their authority from someone else, going ultimately back to "the people" who themselves do not directly exercise power, and who would find it difficult to exercise as a collective action problem, even if they had the formal authority to do so.
What this means is that real power is often in the hands of unelected bureaucrats, who typically don't even want to stand for election because they don't want the voters to know what their programs are, much less to exercise any oversight. Robert Moses is the classic example here.
Even that minimal level of scrutiny is too much for some, and real power is often exercised by people not formally part of any government structure. Corporate lobbyists or Robert Kagan come to mind.
There's standard grade political BS and there's Trump's, which goes way beyond the norm. Over the top, delusional, grandiose, with his sycophants hovering around, all of whom surely know this is pure nonsense, Trump takes it to a level that makes me question the mental fitness of the man. My worry is just where is Trump's head at? There appears to be some level of realpolitik in his words and actions, which is more than can be said for the previous administration, which actually seemed to believe its own moralizing BS. But at heart DJT appears to be a different flavor of colonialist, who recognizes that Ukraine is a lost cause and wants out, but still has the same old agendas for China and the Middle East. Did DJT believe that his wonderful self with his boundless charm and irresistible persuasiveness, would convince Putin to accept his terms to end the conflict. Does Trump now feel like he is caught in a trap, and once it's clear that Russia will take all of the 4 oblasts and Europe has no means of stopping them, get the US back in and start climbing the escalation ladder? The man is mercurial to say the least, and takes everything that doesn't go his way as a personal affront. He also has a tendency for shows of violence.
Yes, he appears to be mentally unstable and delusional--or else it's one hellofva act. My fear is this: he can't beat Russia, he can't beat Iran, he can't beat DPRK, and he sure as heck can't beat China. He looks at the leaders and the incredible parade in Beijing and is humiliated. He thinks, I'll show them! So he bombs the crap out of Venezuela using stealth F-35's and B-2's which, with S-200's, they can't touch. No invasion. We'd get our asses kicked--just bombing and maybe decapitation. Then he struts around like Napoleon. Sad, but a real possibility.
Wasn't the "Chinese guy" Carl Zha? He is always a fun interview. His discussion, along with Mark Sleboda, on China-Russia history was epic.
Don't believe it was Carl, but I love the guy.
I agree in principle, but would argue we have one party. The dominant Democrat wing and the subservient and impotent Republican wing. The Republicans serve different oligarchs and deceive the public by telling them what they want to hear. But they never make legislative changes, other than reinforcing the exfiltration of wealth to the inbred 1% elite oligarchs.
The irony is they reveal that the clueless macho, pretend to be tough American Empire first crowd are actually ignorant effiminates. It's easy to justify blowing up pleasure boats in the Caribbean, droning Yemeni tribal councils or advocate shelling Donbass civilians when there are no consequences to your own home or family.
Which is why we desperately need demonstrable consequences against them.
Luigi showed the way. 😉
The public is being ripped off and saddled with unsustainable debt to enrich incompetent MIC companies.
And our national security is destroyed by creating enemies world wide while not being able to sustain high intensity combat.
The Golden Dome is another Money laundromat. We do not have interceptors that function reliably let alone the quantities needed if defending the country.
Of course if we minded our own business we wouldn't have enemies.
While it's necessary to follow NATO's song and dance about security guarantees, something else must be repeated:
Ukraine once said that, when they get a ceasefire, they've prepared for a long campaign of assassinating every Russian involved in prosecuting the war, military and civilian. IIRC, they quoted they may go on doing this for up to 30 years.
If Ukrainian fascists (along with their Western backers) are prepared to bleed Russia for generations, then perhaps us onlookers need to retake account of what Russia has committed to. Real victory requires matching and surpassing that level of commitment.
That is nothing new, that is OUN MO. And not just hunting Rus but anybody that disagrees with them, including Ukies.
But then again, paying attention to their lingo, there are no innocent Rus. Task is insurmountable ;)
That depends on your understanding of what Russia has committed to. It's not just territory. They have committed to neutralising Ukraine's ability to be a threat to the Russian Federation - that could include many options, among which might necessitate military victory and complete regime change.
Sounds pretty much as same modus operandi from Mossad/Israel.
Glad you mentioned Trump.
Finally people are starting to see the reality of him - tendencies (good and bad), limitations, and pathologies.
Anchorage, as I said earlier, at best was a waste of time.
Putin is still diplomatic though.
Hope he can drop this charade soon.
When I hear Trump I always recall an old Soviet song, "without me, without me, there wouldn't be absolutely nothing, and even sun wouldn't be shining, if it were not for me..."
How can a grown-up (old, actually:-)) man get into such boasting sprees, and who can even listen to it all with a straight face, beats me.
Megalomania - personal, and country-wise takes now an entirely new meaning...
You have to wonder what his supporters are thinking about such statements.
I voted for Trump in 2024 (not in 2016, 2020) out of sheer desperation given the "choices" we had, and I wasn't going to waste my useless vote on the irrelevant parties to "prove a point," when Kamala, the ding was looming.
So, now as a 'Trump supporter,' I alternate between the jaw dropping and eyes rolling whenever Trump opens his mouth. It looks like all his sanity went into the "campaign" and now just the shell is left (provided, there was any content to start with:-)
When I say "supporters", I don't mean people like you who voted in desperation, but the "true believers", MAGA worshippers who have accepted him with unqualified, unquestioned support.
They must be staring in disbelief as his campaign promises rapidly turn to dust and his hollow boasts have no bearing in reality whatsoever. Worse still; there's nowt they can do about it apart from pay the inflated prices his tariffs have caused.
Not the Q tards. Have a look at this site as an example: www.greatawakening.win
Pretty funny, as Trump betrays them over and over and over again and they keep on doubling down, making excuses, denying, attacking the messenger....
Trump was showing signs of dementia even while campaigning. Why are you pretending? There was nothing wrong with the choices you had 🙄 You preferred a lying, dementia-ridden, abusive man to his opponent. There was a clear choice, you voted for Trump.
So stop pretending you voted for him out of desperation 🤣 you knew exactly what you were doing.
The opponent was worse.
@Liza - Well, maybe you share the psychotic traits with Trump, so it's easy for you to comprehend him. Or it's easy to align with his "opponent", but It's not for me - if I spent such an effort as he did on his campaign, then sure as hell, I would do my very best to stop this war(s) and try to fix the economy.
As a former DJT supporter, I've already bailed. The guy is nuts.
And this didn't occur to you before the election?
"They're eating the cats, they're eating the dogs" didn't tip you off?
Actually this was pretty funny and well played, also with serving @McDonald's counter, etc. But what then looked like a witty come back, turned out to be his entire essence of the lack of such....
I think of the Bible verse "pride comes before a fall." What is he going to do when it becomes too obvious to hide that he did not make America great again. Apparently he is incapable of admitting he was ever wrong. Interesting to hypothesize what will happen when that point arrives.
It kind of redeems the book Trump's niece wrote about him. Most of us initially dismissed the book as sour grapes from a disgruntled "liberal" relative of Trump's. Turns out she knew what she was talking about. Buyers remorse, right here.
I read the book during/after his last term. I thought she had a grudge to settle, and maybe she did, but she captured many things that were/are true.
That failure will produce Trump at his most dangerous.
From the ancient Greeks - “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.”
From the Bible - “Whosover exalts himself shall be abased.”
just looking at the lady on the left of this clip (T's right hand side): no need for introspection, it's flunkies and arse-lickers all the way down.
People that are around Trump socially claim he is actually quite kind. He gets in front of a camera and 9 times out of 10 he reverts to his TV personality.
See Cambridge Analytica. It's called something else, now. CA identified who Trump needed to appear to be to get elected back in 2012 or so.
Behavioral Psychology
Seems like way too much effort to switch like that on a cue. After awhile, whatever you fake becomes you.
It appears the Trump i voted for is gone.
Same. I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig, even if I voted for him.
Does Vance have a contemptuous WTF expression on his face while Trump is talking in that last clip?
I think you are right. He keeps turning his eyes, shifting his weight and he is generally restless. He is most likely concerned that Trump will burp up something real stupid in his megalomaniac rush there.
even more 'real stupid' than voicing real stupid?
As he is s aging he is losing some of his sharpness and self-control. As pressure increases on him he will come up with stupid things. He knows that he suffered a major, irreversible geopolitical defeat in the last few days by the hands of the China, Russia, North Korea and India team. His mind is searching for a way out of this situation but there is no solution. This constant psychobabble about his own greatness and the coming Nobel Peace Prizes is not going to win him much public recognition.
'psychobabble'.... ouch...
The footage of them all enjoying a laugh and rubbing shoulders with Kim must have made his blood boil. Maybe Steam really did come out of his Ears as he approached Apoplexy.
He recently sent some letters to Kim but the Fat Boy refused to answer him.
Much as I'd love to declare victory, I am concerned that someone in State will convince Trump to relax tariffs on India a bit, pat Modi on the head, promise to look the other way at any persecution of Muslims, and Modi will flip once more.
The Indians would like better relations with the West, but they're never going to trust us. These things haven't changed since 1948.
Not only India, also China and Russia, would prefer to maintain a good relationship of cooperation and mutual respect with the so-called West.
Conflict is caused by the understanding by the US leaders that without something that destabilises their opponents now, the natural development of the situation would/will lead to Russia's strengthening, but above all, to China becoming the supreme economic and political power in the world. Also one with an alternative system of economic governance, what might help give some undesirable ideas to the peasants at home.
It's that "This guy is destroying our brand!" look that many of the Dems had whenever Joe or Nancy spoke in public.
He almost always has that look. Being the sodomite Thiel's bitch would do that. And playing 2nd fiddle to an ignorant, lying, flip flopper.
@Mr.Natural
Absolutely. Vance's face says "WTF?!"
Russia (and also the Soviet Union) had this unique way of winning wars historically. Some of these acts remain on the minds of Russian military strategists, deeply embedded there.
In 1480, after struggling with the Tatars for centuries, Muscovy forces faced off the Golden Horde at the Ugra River led by Ivan III of Moscow. The occasion was that Muscovy refused to pay taxes to the Golden Horde. There was a month long face off between the two armies while the Russians received additional forces and the Golden Horde had to worry about the coming winter. At the end, both armies decided independently to break off the confrontation without a major battle. Most historians agree that the event marked the turning point in Muscovy – Tatar relations and initiated a strong growth period for future Russia.
In 1812 Napoleon’s armies kept walking deeper and deeper into Russia. General Mikhail Kutuzov used scorched-earth tactics to deprive the French but he started to run out of land and received warnings to engage them. At the Battle of Borodino (September 7, 1812) both armies suffered giant losses without a clear victory and the French marched on to Moscow, The city was dutifully burned by the Russians just at the start of the winter and the French were forced to turn around suffering additional losses and a dissolution of their army units. These were the events that turned Napoleon’s fate in Europe, he was not invincible anymore.
The Battle of Moscow at the end of 1941 happened after an uninterrupted march of the German forces when some of their units already had a clear view on Central Moscow. The hard winter, the extended German supply lines and the endlessly flowing Lend-Lease goods were all major factors, including some fresh Soviet forces arriving from the Far East after it was decided that Japan will not attack there. (I have seen evidence showing that the Lend-Lease records presently offered to historians and the US general public is forgeries.)
The Red Army’s Kursk offensive started as a defensive act and developed into a giant tank battle in July of 1943. It was followed by series of Soviet offensives that turned WWII around.
In most of these situations Russia was simply giving up giant territories to alter the balance for a final battle and start a recovery. I think there is a strong possibility that the final aim of the War of Attrition was to alter the balance of power and to prepare the UAF for a major defeat.
Yes, this appears to be a recurrent strategy of Russians.
Also the Swedes were strategically destroyed when they were deep into Russian Empire territory in Poltava. Even in that battle, Peter's idea was to build defences and let the enemy advance. Not unlike Borodino or Kursk.
Wellington's ideas at Waterloo and while fighting in Spain were similar, although he was the exception in the English way of fighting.
I would add that against Napoleon, Russian strategy of retreating to extend French supply lines had been designed by Barclay de Tolly, an honest, very technical officer, who was replaced because he had not a Russian name, what apparently was unacceptable for the Russian nobility.
I think that operationally Kutuzov just followed what the Russian army was doing before him. His merit lies in the way he was able to give the fight a moral meaning for the Russian soldiers, conscripted peasants, turning the war from a conflict between monarchs to a struggle between peoples.
Thanks, some very interesting items there.
The overriding facts of war in Russia are the vast geographic dimensions involved, which control strategy for *all* participants. That geography is fact, and how you deal with the lay of the land is something imposed on all participants, not a choice of strategy.
Most historians agree that the turning point for Russia wasn't the battle on the Ugra river but the defeat of the Golden Horde - twice - by Dmitri Donskoi, most famously at the battle of Kulikovo field in 1380 when Donskoi defeated Mamai himself at the head of the Golden Horde. In the back and forth ending of Mongol domination of Russia that was the first successful pushback. Ugra was also significant, for sure, but it wasn't the turning point that Kulikovo was.
Kutuzov in 1812 understood how to use Russia's geography to destroy a superior army (at the time Napoleon's Grand Armee was by far the most powerful and militarily expert on the planet). He did not "start to run out of land" as the French advance was only a tiny fraction of the land available. What he encountered was pressure from a nobility that had a deeply European ethos of war. They all spoke French and wanted to charge head on into the Grand Armee, feeling that their honor required that even if it was a terrible military plan. Kutuzov decided to let them do that at Borodino, believing that doing so would end political opposition to his strategy.
Borodino wasn't a matter of survival for Russia but it was for the Grand Armee. Without a decisive win at Borodino it was clear that the Grand Armee would be destroyed in Russia. Kutuzov knew that would happen anyway, with a strong likelihood Napoleon himself would fall. The Grand Armee had already suffered huge losses just to get as far as Borodino with many allies dropping off and many deaths. It was weak enough that Kutuzov could fight Napoleon to a draw at Borodino. But the battle was bloody enough that, the requirements of honor met, the nobility stopped carping about Kutusov's strategy.
Saying Moscow was "dutifully" burned by the Russians is making the decision of one man, the governor, and a possibly apocryphal decision at that, state strategy. There was no need to burn Moscow since the evacuation of the population and the elimination of food supplies would have made it an insufficient winter refuge for the Grand Armee without burning it.
The subsequent destruction of the Grand Armee as it attempted to flee Russia wasn't anywhere near the end, either. The main part of the "War of 1812" happened after 1812, when Russia's armies responded to the attack by invading French held territory in Western Europe and pushed on all the way to occupying Paris, where many of the Russian officers had estates and city mansions (the nobility all spoke French).
In 1941 it wasn't a Russian strategy to give up territory that brought the Germans to the gates of Moscow, it was the extreme military incompetence of Stalin and the horrific performance of the general staff after Stalin had imprisoned or executed in the Terror his experienced and competent military officers. Literally millions of Soviet soldiers were encircled and captured because Stalin refused to believe that Hitler would attack.
Lend-lease hadn't had any effect at all in 1941. The Germans were stopped at the gates of Moscow by a superhuman fanaticism in defense of Moscow and by an inability to supply their forward troops over such long and fragile supply lines. The arrival of fresh troops mobilized from the vast interior of Russia played a role in the counter-offensive, not in the original stopping of the German offense.
The battle of Kursk wasn't a defensive act, but the result of successful offensives that created the "Kursk Bulge" that protruded into German-held territory. It wasn't followed by a series of Soviet offensives that turned WWII around but was the result of Soviet offensives that followed the successful defense of Moscow (the real event that turned WWII around for the USSR). Stalingrad, in February of 1943, for example was well before Kursk and truly broke the back of the Wehrmacht and ended any chance of Germany seizing the oilfields in the South.
John, if Kulikovo in 1380 truly turned the Russian-Tatar relations the Russians would have stopped paying taxes to their opponent. On the other hand exactly a century later, in 1480, the Golden Horde shows up with a major army a hundred miles south east from Moscow to collect taxes. That means that taxes were paid most of the time between 1380 and 1480.
'The overriding facts of war in Russia are the vast geographic dimensions involved, which control strategy for *all* participants. That geography is fact, and how you deal with the lay of the land is something imposed on all participants, not a choice of strategy.'
Geographic realities are a framework for strategies.
'Lend-lease hadn't had any effect at all in 1941.'
Lend-lease had serious effects by the end of 1941. The fact that we are denied the true data still allows us to have some ideas of the dimensions of the program.
and I will stop here
"if Kulikovo in 1380 truly turned the Russian-Tatar relations the Russians would have stopped paying taxes to their opponent."
The relations between various power centers within Russia and the Horde weren't so simple as the above. Many of the princes *depended* on the power of, or even just the implied threat of the power of, the Horde for their own control of their regions. One reason they collected tribute was so they could take a large cut for themselves. And some did and some didn't pay tribute throughout the history of the Mongols in Russia.
Why Kulikovo was a turning point was because it was the very first time that a major Mongol army led by the head of the Golden Horde himself suffered a decisive defeat at the hands of a Russian prince. That was the turning point in subsequent relations between the many power centers of Russia and the ever more fragmented Horde. Once Donskoi showed it could be done the relations with the rest of the princes were never the same.
As before, some continued to pay tribute and some didn't. But it became considerably more difficult for the Horde to exert the influence they had before. As before there were battles from time to time, but what changed was that the Russian princes now had an expectation they could defeat the Mongols in battle. That set the trend that Ugra continued. By 1480 it was already clear the era of total Mongol dominance was over, with the Russian princes increasingly taking the fight to the Mongols. Just a few short years later Ivan Vasilievich (the IV, known as "the Fierce" or "the Terrible") was wiping out former Mongol strongholds like Astrakhan and Kazan.
Thanks for this impressive historical account, John.