SITREP 9/5/25: Rumblings of New 'Major' Russian Offensive as Elite Units Regroup
In the aftermath of China’s Victory Day parade, Putin made some new interesting comments before setting off back to Russia. The most noteworthy was that if no agreement can be reached, then Russia will simply accomplish its goals via military means:
But in some ways the more interesting and pregnant statement was the following, which came in response to a question about how Russian troops feel about the so-called negotiations and ending the war with a ceasefire—one implied to be premature, by the reporter:
Putin responds that the overwhelming majority of Russian troops on the front want Russia to fulfill all of its SMO objectives. The reason this is particularly noteworthy is because the question here presented an opportunity for Putin to equivocate or temporize if his intention truly was to lead the conflict to an early and incomplete conclusion. He could have exaggerated the reality with a bit of a white lie, perhaps using ‘diplomatic’ and political language to imply that Russian troops would be happy with a ceasefire in order to support his own underhanded plans.
But instead, he gave the raw truth, which should come as a slap in the face of critics and doomers who portray Putin as bowing to pressure in weakness, or things of that like. By so openly revealing the sentiments of real Russian troops he puts the onus on himself to now fulfill the conflict’s primary mandates.
Incidentally, during Gerasimov’s recent broadcast general staff meeting, a map was spotted on the wall which shows Russian territory as encompassing all of Kherson, Nikolayev, and Odessa regions:
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova again dispelled rumors that Russia was somehow loosening its demands, by reiterating them for the umpteenth time:
And given that the spineless Eurocrats are currently convening their little camarilla to connive about dispatching so-called troops to Ukraine, Zakharova likewise again shot that prospect down:
As more time goes on, the shallow nature of Trump’s Alaska spectacle is revealed in its entirety. As we had imagined, nothing real was achieved, and everything was done merely for PR glitz and fleeting headline bait.
Now Trump tries to justify his revealed impotence by claiming Russia is only “moving inches” while dropping bombs in volumes not seen since WWII:
Well, Israel is doing the same—except it’s dropping those bombs on civilians, not military targets like in Russia’s case—and yet Trump continues standing firm that Hamas should “give up the hostages” and refuses to condemn or act against Israel until all Israeli objectives are achieved.
Then he should have no problem with Russia achieving its objectives for the sake of its own vital security interests. Trump is digging a bigger and bigger hole for himself because the more he embeds his legacy into the war, making it obvious that he’s got a major stake in an outcome favorable to him, the more it will hurt his reputation and presidential term later when the sunk-cost fallacy bites back and the media devours him for failing in all his objectives and looking historically weak.
Speaking of the media, this is how they portrayed China’s multipolar moment:
Now all attention is turning to what Russia will do next, as buzz gathers about an alleged ‘massive’ new Russian buildup said to be in preparation for a renewed offensive thrust toward embattled Pokrovsk and surrounding areas.
Today this claim from a Ukrainian special forces officer hit the airwaves:
The Russians have carried out the largest regrouping of their forces since Kyiv 2022. They have prepared significant forces and are ready for the final, decisive battle for the rest of the Donetsk region. We will see the use of armored columns again. And it will be very bloody for both sides.
Soon.
Taken alone, it appeared dubious, particularly given adjacent reports throwing out the claimed “100k Russian troops” around Pokrovsk number that’s been used for months now to set a threatening undertone for Zelensky’s desperate European-begging roadshow. However, a growing number of sources now point to some major Russian ‘coiling of the spring’.
Ukrainian drone figure Berlinska wrote the following on her official channel:
ISW followed suit:
This part at least has been corroborated by other sources—the claim that Russia has redeployed several elite units from other regions in preparation for the next series of strikes:
Enemy channels are reporting that the Russian army has been transferred from the Sumy direction to Pokrovskoye. In particular, the 40th and 155th marine brigades, the 177th regiment, the paratroopers of the 11th Airborne Brigade, and the regiments of the 76th Airborne Division have been deployed. They are commanded by General Akhmedov, who is known for his failed first assault on Ugledar.
Now Bloomberg has joined in on the alarm:
The article claims that Russia’s “grinding summer offensive” hasn’t achieved much territorial gains yet the authors post a graph showing steady Russian gains over the past few months.
Online analysts did an even more thorough job, showing that August gains dipped somewhat from July, but still were comparable:
The past week or two have seen a bit of a slow down, although it has appeared to pick up again in the last several days—which we’ll get to.
Another Ukrainian analyst muses on Russian redeployment and buildup diversions:
Look, here’s the thing.
Some time ago, there was a deployment of numerous enemy forces and means in the Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions.
There are landing units, marine infantry, and many artillery units.
But right now, they have been spotted assaulting in the Pokrovsk direction.
So the question is – is this a diversionary maneuver or have they decided to complicate their logistics (which is hard to believe)?
Or was the initial deployment a "feint"?
I think only time will tell. But the situation is unusual.
The enemy sometimes does this when starting a more or less massive operational-tactical operation.
👉 Ukrainian Post
Now Ukrainian officers are again sounding the alarm over the situation in Kupyansk where Russia reportedly also pulled up reserves:
A serious threat looms over Kupyansk, said Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Andrey Tkachuk.
According to him, the Russian military has pulled together significant reserves for assault operations in this area.
And Forbes has drawn attention to the growing threat of the notorious Russian ‘Rubicon’ drone force that has been shaking the AFU to its core:
Russia’s Rubicon drone formation has rapidly emerged as one of the most effective forces on the front, helping to expand the killzone and making it far more difficult for Ukrainian logistics.
As a result of relentless Russian drone attacks, Ukraine is facing a shortage of trucks, pickups, and armored transport vehicles, many of which are being destroyed on resupply and evacuation runs.
On whichever front Rubicon arrives, the situation immediately changes, as per the AFU:
In July, the New York Times reported that Ukrainian soldiers identified Rubicon as the turning point in Russia’s improving drone campaign. Rebekah Maciorowski, an American volunteer who leads the medical unit of Ukraine’s 53rd Mechanized Brigade, told the NYT: “The game changed when they came here.”
The article notes that Rubicon is coordinating its drone forces more and more closely with Russian assault units, for instance using the Molniya (“Lightning”) drone to attack Ukrainian defenders in conjunction with Russian assault units.
Ukrainian analyst Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov highlighted in a Telegram post that Rubicon now plays a central role in strikes against supply routes, coordinating closely with frontline reconnaissance units. He argues the unit is part of a broader shift toward centralization and professionalization in Russia’s drone warfare.
On that note—a brief digression. The Russian Lancet drone has showcased its AI targeting capability again recently, specifically in AI-targeting identifying camouflaged enemy units. Southfront reported on it:
Artificial intelligence is now helping Russian Lancet loitering munition recognize carefully camouflaged targets in the special military operations zone in Ukraine, ZALA Aero Group, the producer of the system, revealed on September 4.
“The loitering munitions of the Lancet family, equipped with an intelligent guidance and target recognition system, are capable of detecting carefully camouflaged enemy equipment,” the company said in a press release posted to Telegram.
Read this section in particular:
In July, the company announced that both the navigation and targeting systems of the loitering munition received upgrades enabling artificial intelligence features and improving resistance against jamming.
Footage released by ZALA along with its latest press release showed two successful Lancet strikes on carefully camouflaged howitzers of Kiev forces in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. In both cases, the AI-powered target recognition function of the Lancet’s electro-optical system was able to automatically recognize the howitzers which were then hit with pinpoint accuracy.
The footage:
On the other end of the scale, a Ukrainian report on Russian camouflage tactics on the Pokrovsk sector:
Ukrochannels write about the new tactics of the Russian army. Our infantry is increasingly using inexpensive anti-thermal vision cloaks to infiltrate the front line at night. This tactic is not new, but it has become more widespread in the Pokrovsk direction. The cloaks blur the thermal signature of the soldier, making it difficult to detect them using thermal drones and ground-based thermal imaging systems. Russian assault troops are bypassing Ukrainian positions, destroying mortar crews and drone operators in the rear.
Now let’s get to some battlefield updates.
The venerable Suriyak finally has Russia taking full control of the market district inside Pokrovsk after capturing Troyanda and Leontovychi:
Just west of there, Russian forces fully secured Udachne and began to expand territory further westward onto the Dnipropetrovsk border:
In the famous north-Pokrovsk breakthrough, Russia rebuffed Ukrainian counter-attacks and began again to expand the salient outward. They recaptured most of Nove Shakhove and extended the flanks on both sides somewhat with new positions:
And as you can see on the eastern side of the newly-formed Shakhove cauldron, Russian forces captured a new shelf, expanding the cauldron’s side northward.
On the Velyka Novosilka line, Russian forces captured Zaporizka and Komyshuvakha, then made some other territorial gains around the flanks in the westerly direction:
The Kupyansk zone is the other big focal point recently, with various reports claiming Russian troops have again begun infiltrating toward Kupyansk city center.
The Russian MOD made waves, and some controversy due to certain commentators like Yuri Podolyaka showing skepticism, by releasing footage showing Russian troops planting the flag in the center of Kupyansk:
The geolocation would put it at the bottom-most bullseye below:
Note the 0:17 second mark of the video, as the camera pulls back you see the city administration area with a cemetery looking square:
The red shows the cemetery-looking structure, with the yellow circle where the soldier is standing:
Zoomed out view:
We don’t know if this is just DRG or regular troops who’ve consolidated their positions. But the important thing to note is the proximity to the central bridge and main supply artery which connects east and west Kupyansk over the Oskil river. The bridge is only two blocks south of the Russian soldier’s position.
Some last disparate items:
An investigative team found that European officials’ claims of having produced or procured 1.5+ million artillery shells in 2024 were unfounded. In fact, they found the total number was actually one third or less of this, at somewhere between 400,000 to 600,000:
From Brussels, however, comes a more optimistic message. European industry will produce more than 1.5 million of these artillery shells in 2024.
This investigation by nine media outlets across Europe shows that Europe’s optimism is unfounded. High-ranking officials and industry insiders reveal that actual capacity is only one-third of the official figures — somewhere between 400,000 and 600,000 shells.
This revelation has serious implications for sustaining crucial military aid to Ukraine, as well as for Europe’s ability to quickly restock empty warehouses.
Recall that some estimates of Russia’s production/procurement range from 250,000 to 350,000 per month.
—
In a new interview, General Zaluzhny again reiterates something he had explained long ago when he revealed Gerasimov to be his idol, and once said that Russia is the military science capital of the world. Recall this article from two years ago:
Now he has again recounted this in person, effectively explaining that all military knowledge resides exclusively in Russia, and that the prohibition on quoting Russian ‘scientific works’ is stupid because Zaluzhny does not know how to speak about war without citing authoritative Russian sources on the matter:
—
Running out of cheap gimmicks and party tricks to stay relevant and project an aura of strength for his declining empire, Trump gave a head-shake-inducing statement that no colorful description can really do justice to, and must be heard instead:
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So,
Ukraine won't make concessions to Russia.
Russia won't stop the SMO until Ukraine meets its rather modest expectations.
Neither side is compromising. That's great.
The inevitable trajectory of this equation is either an eventual Ukrainian capitulation or the stage is set for a greater war if Europe decides to reinforce Ukraine before it topples over.
If Ukraine does not cede to Russia's unshakable demands, it will capitulate without reinforcements. That puts a lot of pressure on Europe to decide either to let Ukraine fall or to link up with it before it's too late. But Europe is far from ready for war.
Hence, as long as Russia doesn't compromise and keeps fighting, it will inevitably end up defeating Ukraine even though that wasn't planned.
Sometimes, in life, the best things are those that are unplanned.
I'd like to see Ukraine soundly defeated militarily, rather than just losing four oblasts.
It's the best option.
Superb write-up. American politics has been smoke and mirrors and a litany of lies for decades--but that final clip of Trump is magnificent. In a perverse way he is awe inspiring. He is unquestionably the King of political BS. But there is also another characteristic of American politics--no one accepts responsibility, admits error, is held accountable or fired. There is always someone else to blame. I remember hearing a Chinese guy say that what's great about their system is there is only one party. If something is screwed up the people know exactly who to blame, the CPC. So things get fixed. He went on to say, in America you have two parties and when something is screwed up it's always the other party's fault--nothing gets fixed. I had to think about that one a second or two, before the light of recognition went on in my head.