SITREP 9/24/24: PR Tour Sours as Ukraine's Lackluster 'Victory Plan' Met with Doubts
Israel continues to pummel Lebanon, proving itself to be the only country in the world that can literally bomb and invade all of its neighbors at will without serious international consequences.
Note I said consequences, not ‘condemnation’. There’s plenty of the latter to go around, but it doesn’t lead to anything tangible because all global institutions are co-opted, captured, and compromised by the Hydra, and as such only pay lip service to tragedies perpetrated by their clients and masters alike. Isn’t it interesting how—just to take one small example of many—the Chess world’s FIDE organization has banned not only Russia but even Belarus merely as offhand accomplice, yet Israel, for an actual holocaust it’s committing on its neighbors, has not been banned. The same goes for the Olympics, EuroVision, and other contests; it’s quite incredible when you think about it.
What has Belarus done that is worse than an actual holocaust being perpetrated by Israel?
I noted last time that I don’t foresee much being done from the Resistance axis, and there continue to be signals that this reading is accurate. One of the most notable signs of this is the rather startling news that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has suddenly taken a very pro-Western approach in the hopes of easing tensions. This was most poignantly demonstrated when he appeared to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during ongoing UN discussions:
The problem: Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi immediately refuted the above quote attributed to the president, claiming it’s fake:
This denial follows a Bloomberg report claiming that the Iranian president made such statements.
Araghchi clarified that "the president has strongly condemned the crimes of the Zionist regime in Gaza and the invasion of Lebanon by that regime," adding that any reports suggesting otherwise are false. He further criticized Bloomberg's report, calling it "media mischief."
What to believe?
There are other reports like this one, though take it with a heavy grain of salt:
Now there’s a controversial video going around of a Mideast commentator explaining this puzzling situation. I’m not saying he’s definitively right—thus the controversy part—but he could be making some good points:
What he argues is that Iran is more concerned with fortifying its directly-regional influence, particularly in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria, rather than expending all its resources on a fight with Israel, which is not its top priority. It’s a little contradictory because Israel is in fact central to the Syrian situation, given that it is Israel chiefly destroying Iranian assets with strikes there as a major barb in Iran’s side.
However, he may be right in a more generalized sense of Iran not being keen to shift its weight entirely to the Israeli situation, which plays again into the ‘long game’ I mentioned.
However, that’s not to say Iran has “abandoned Russia” or back-stabbed it. Most likely these are just signals Iran is sending to convey that it is ready to ease tensions with the US. One gets the feeling that the US and Iran have a mutual understanding behind Israel’s back that Israel wants to pull them both into an undesirable war against each other.
For instance, Shoigu just left Iran recently, where he met with the president himself and signed a major deal. The latest is likely Iran’s need to appear ‘consistent’ in its call for peace—after all, one cannot with a straight face call for peace in Palestine-Lebanon while ostensibly supporting the Ukraine war. At least that’s my read of the situation, for now—but with new information, things could change.
Furthermore, Reuters now reports that Iran has brokered secret talks between Russia and the Houthis, to transfer anti-ship missiles, which allegedly could include the P-800, or Yakhont export version:
"Iran has brokered ongoing secret talks between Russia and Yemen's Houthi rebels to transfer anti-ship missiles to the militant group, three Western and regional sources said, a development that highlights Tehran's deepening ties to Moscow. Seven sources said that Russia has yet to decide to transfer the Yakhont missiles – also known as P-800 Oniks - which experts said would allow the militant group to more accurately strike commercial vessels in the Red Sea and increase the threat to the U.S. and European warships defending them."
What we’ve been saying all along:
This of course would be a nightmare for the US, which regime media had previously reported with great trepidation:
Here’s one final interesting analysis:
"Iranian President Pezeshkian's anti-Russian attack on Ukraine is also a kind of public support by Tehran for Kamala Harris's candidacy in the US elections. If the Kremlin can openly demonstrate its ironic support for Kamala Harris, then why can't Iran do the same? Iran does this, but in its own way.
Pezeshkian was "chosen" by Ayatollah Khamenei as President of Iran for a "reset" of relations with America, restoration of the "nuclear deal", etc. In response to these aspirations of Khamenei, Washington openly signals through the Wall Street Journal that Iran should not wait until November to resume negotiations on restoring the "nuclear deal", but they are possible only if Harris wins. The ease of media manipulation of Tehran from Washington was noted as a threat to Iran earlier, but now this vulnerability is actively used by both sides in order to appear on the formation of the Middle East course of the new/old White House administration.
The complete lack of reaction from Iran to Israel's "preventive special operation" against Hezbollah creates the impression that Tehran has decided to get rid of its toxic and no longer effective proxies and try to keep only the really working projects of influence in the Middle East - such as the Yemeni Houthis and partially Hamas."
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In the meantime, the US is sending troops ‘just in case’:
And in line with our last report, Israel has threatened that if the current track does not return fleeing Israelis back to the north, then a ground operation in Lebanon will be considered:
This confirms what we wrote last time: that the surface-level justification behind the ongoing strikes is to keep Israel’s economy from collapsing due to the uprooting of workers from the agriculturally-important northern regions.
By the way, while sending troops to the region, the aging US fleet highlighted a major problem when its only Navy oiler in the region was knocked out of commission:
It’s not looking good. I’ve been told by a shipowner the Navy does not have a spare oiler to deploy and is scrambling to find a commercial oil tanker to refuel the Abraham Lincoln carrier group.
The Navy’s sole replenishment oiler in the Middle East ran aground yesterday, leaving the USS Abraham Lincoln unable to launch fighter jets until a commercial tanker is located, retrofitted, and deployed. Worse is the fact that a commercial oiler is much slower than the Big Horn forcing the carrier to travel at reduced speeds, making it vulnerable to enemy attacks. This debacle is yet another glaring example of the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous leadership. The Navy, once the pinnacle of global naval dominance, is now sinking—thanks to recruitment failures, bungling contractors, and top brass more focused on pushing Marxist DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) ideology than maintaining readiness and capability. America’s Navy is crumbling under the weight of political correctness, putting national security at risk.
On the Ukraine front, Zelensky has begun his grand tour by speaking at the UN and presenting his long-awaited [war is] peace plan. Unfortunately, it fell on dubious ears as allies emerged quite skeptical and underwhelmed:
It didn’t help that his messaging was totally confused, with Zelensky repeatedly calling for more “war” in order to create “peace”, as per usual NATO doublespeak:
His grand “peace plan” was described by allies as merely a “wishlist”, with nothing ground-breaking presented. That’s not to mention the wishes themselves are all unrealistic.
Increasingly, Zelensky appears convinced the end is near for him. Almost everything out of his mouth has switched gears to the war coming to an end.
Zelensky gave an interview to ABC News in which he stated that the war with Russia is "closer to the end" than many believe. "I think we're closer to peace than we think. We're closer to the end of war. We just have to be very strong, very strong." - said Zelensky and called on the allies to strengthen the Ukrainian army.
The front is going catastrophically, with major Russian advances continuing day by day. Ugledar is now close to falling and the latest ‘rumor’ is that Zelensky has instructed his commanders to postpone its capture by Russians at any cost at least until the end of the UN dog-and-pony show. Zelensky merely requires that he not be ‘humiliated’ with the fall of such a key city during his big public PR tour, as it would lend itself toward deflating any last remaining hopes for the AFU’s prospects.
Unfortunately, that postponement is costing lives, with terrible reports streaming out of the embattled and besieged city.
From pro-UA commentators:
At present, Ugledar looks like this, and Russian forces have now entered the city proper from the eastern dachas side:
It appears it’s mere hours from falling, with reports of mass surrenders already happening as shown above—but we’ll see. Big Ukrainian sources believe the AFU may soon pull out from several large, key city-centers, which would be a devastating moral blow:
The problem is, the lines are buckling everywhere, including the north:
Ukrainian reserve officer and analyst Tatarigami is despondent:
A Ukrainian unit even wrote an urgent public appeal:
The Ukrainian 23rd battalion has apparently written a public letter calling for the removal of their commander.
It goes as follows:
Open letter
military personnel of the 23rd OSB to the battalion commander:
Commander, we express our disbelief and demand your resignation. You are not worthy of the position of our battalion commander for the following reasons:1. During your one-year tenure as a battalion commander, you have not personally been to any combat position or place of residence of the personnel of the battalion entrusted to you. Your deputies have never been interested in this either.
2. you have been ignoring numerous reports from deputy company commanders about the unsatisfactory moral and psychological state of the rifle company soldiers for 8 months. The first of these reports was submitted back in January 2024.
3. despite the reports of the deputy commanders of rifle companies about the unsatisfactory moral and psychological state of the personnel in August and ignoring the messages in the signal of the deputy commander of the 2nd company (that the creation of the joint venture koren-8 makes no sense
and can only lead to unjustified losses), you planned and gave the order to conduct offensive operations on September 5, 2024. As a result of your disregard for the officers ' opinions
due to poor planning of the combat operation, the battalion suffered significant losses among its best fighters and almost lost its combat capability.
4. you ignored the reports of the rifle company commanders on September 16 that the personnel were unable to continue performing combat tasks and needed long-term recovery, and issued an order to move to new combat positions.
5. you conveyed threats to the personnel through the company commanders that if they continue to insist on withdrawal for restoration, the battalion will be disbanded, and soldiers, sergeants and officers will be dispersed to various units.
6. during the 4 days of our stay in the rear villages of the Kharkiv region, you did not come to any location of the personnel for personal communication and studying the mood among your subordinates.
7. you require completely exhausted physically and mentally fighters to continue performing combat tasks. This can lead to unnecessary losses caused by fatigue.
8. putting exhausted soldiers on combat duty, you risk losing not only people, but also the positions themselves, which in turn can affect the defense capability of the entire front in a certain area.
Based on all this, we express our distrust to you and demand your resignation from the post of commander of the 23rd separate rifle battalion.
Our volunteer battalion deserves a better commander in spirit and in fact of creation.
September 24, 2024As of today, 89 servicemen have agreed to sign this open letter, both those who are now in the battalion and those who transferred to other units or were written off from the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024.
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A new WaPo article again confirms what we’ve been writing for weeks—read very carefully:
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Now Zelensky has announced that Russia plans to target the last three remaining Ukrainian nuclear plants this winter at the UN, not holding back from implicating China for good measure—that’s what good will’s for, after all!
Having just sent up its latest Kondor-FKA advanced spy satellite last week, Russia apparently still needs ‘Chinese satellites’ for the gig.
In light of this, Zelensky met with a host of “corporate executives” and USAID’s Samantha Powers to bolt together some kind of Ukrainian ‘survival’ plan for this coming winter.
In New York, I met with executives from leading U.S. energy, finance, and insurance companies, as well as U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator SamanthaJPower and U.S. DepSecStateMR Richard Verma. The primary focus was on preparing Ukraine's energy system for the winter. We discussed our plans in detail, as well as the possibility of implementing joint projects in the energy sector.
Advisor to the Ukrainian Energy Minister Lana Zerkal said that Zelenskyj's statements about rapidly increasing Ukraine's energy capacity 'have nothing to do with reality
This brings to fore the big question of what exactly will be the game plan for the Ukraine narrative the next few months, now that it’s pretty much a done deal that Zelensky’s big “peace plan” tour will be another huge disappointing failure, like all those vaunted NATO summits before it.
The Ukrainian state and its military runs on the fumes of scheduled morale-boosting spectacles which are ever on the horizon and seem to always promise some big game-changing policy “soon to come”. But now that the current one will end a failure, and Ukraine faces a disastrous winter with disastrous current ongoing developments, it’s hard to imagine what new gimmick they’ll use to sell the public on the war’s continuation over the next few months.
We can only assume the big “long range strikes” gag will be drawn out a little more, to buy Ukraine another month or two of false hope, but then what?
According to the above, Zelensky was hoping to create a kind of peer pressure campaign to merely browbeat Russia into acceding to talks. But both Lavrov and Peskov again released new statements reaffirming that Russia has nothing to talk about with Ukraine, and that all Russia’s goals will be achieved in the SMO.
What he’s saying is, either Ukraine surrenders and accedes to Russia’s demands, or whether Russia takes those demands by continued military force, either way the objectives will be met.
The only thing one can think of is Ukraine attempting more big PR hits, like taking down the Kerch Bridge to tide the morale over for the next few months.
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Legitimny channel reports the following about Ukraine’s potential use of long-range NATO missiles in Russia:
Our source reports that the West is aware that if they give Ukraine permission to strike deep into Russian territory with Western long-range missiles, the Kremlin will launch a series of strikes using tactical nuclear weapons on western Ukraine (targeting training grounds, bridges, tunnels, airfields, industrial facilities, and energy and gas infrastructure). This will increase the flow of refugees from Ukraine to Europe. This will have enormous problems for both the West and Ukraine. The world will be one step away from World War III, provoked by the actions of Western politicians. Many will see their ratings plummet. A large-scale crisis will begin. This is why the West is now reconsidering whether it's worth taking such a risk.
Food for thought.
Meanwhile, controversial Rada MP Mariana Bezuglaya says Russia plans five major ‘bridgeheads’ for this fall, including Zaporozhye city, Dnipro, Kharkov, Kherson, and Sumy:
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All the while British yellowpress continues shoveling slop to its glaze-eyed audience:
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I’ll leave you with these thoughts from Russian analyst Older Eddy:
The phrase “generals prepare for past wars” is usually uttered with disdain - like, they are stupid, so they lose the next one. Today we see an interesting picture. The block of formally largest Western economies cannot surpass Russia on the battlefield exactly “in the war of the past” - it is not possible to give the Khokhles so many weapons to ensure its military victory. And in addition to the economic factor, in terms of driving troops, now just NATO would be very much in need of “readiness for the past war” - with headquarters able to manage the operations of large mechanized formations. But they no longer have such headquarters.
We have enough problems of our own, but it is precisely for a large war of regular armies that we are today better prepared than anyone else in the world, and I am sure that no American brigade, if it got to the front from our side, would not show itself better in the conditions of this war. They, too, would have had to take long and painful pains and learn lessons.
But for the war of the future, taking into account the lessons learned, we are better prepared than many. The main thing is not to let ourselves rest on our laurels: we need to solve the problems that have emerged and be ready for the emergence of new ones. But the citizens who are writing in 2024 about the flawless NATO military machine can be sent for medical treatment. Today, any AFU combatant who has not yet been at the front knows more about modern warfare and NATO's capabilities in it than many recognized Western experts, including their generals.
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"Israel continues to pummel Lebanon, proving itself to be the only country in the world that can literally bomb and invade all of its neighbors at will without serious international consequences."
Shouldn't be that surprising, Israel was able to get away with killing 34 U.S. sailors in the deliberate attack on the USS Liberty in 1967.
We are in the preliminary stages of the war. Nothing significant has happened yet, except that the war has started. The pager and walkie-talkie fiasco was embarrassing but not a significant blow. The victims were part of Hezbollah’s civil infrastructure. Hezbollah’s military technical communication network, when they use it, is fiberoptic. The assassinations of Hezbollah’s leadership are sad but relatively insignificant. They were old guys in their sixties and seventies. Yes, they were heroes but they’ve trained a multitude of senior officers and these officers have had extensive experience in Syria. Their system is based on martyrdom with multi-layer back-up and discrete pre-programed cells, very difficult to disrupt. The effectiveness of Israel's bombing remains to be seen. All Hezbollah’s advanced weaponry is deep (80-90 meters) underground courtesy of North Korea, the world's experts. So far all they’ve used are unguided rockets. Their purpose is to deplete the iron dome. If a bunch get shot down, fine, they’re cheap and have done their job. Hezbollah will give the refugees time to clear out, so for the next few days expect more of the same: bombing, refugees and rockets. After some days the rockets will multiply to deplete the iron dome. Then the real war starts—hundreds of highly accurate guided ballistic missiles, with rockets, drones and cruise missiles thrown in for cover and confusion. The targets will be military and military infrastructure--not civilians. Most Israeli "casualties" treated at hospitals thus far injured themselves falling when running to shelters or require psychological comforting. And who knows what the Iraqis, Syrians and Houthis have in store? At this point things are unfolding more or less predictably. Neither side has demonstrated a significant advantage. Hezbollah doesn't want or need Iran's direct involvement. Iran will be the last domino to fall, and only if it is seriously attacked. Everyone knows if Iran gets serious the world's oil is turned off and the West's economies collapse. The Axis can likely handle both Israel and the US without Iran. Stay tuned.