SITREP 9/2/24: Zermak on Escalation Begging Tour as Pokrovsk Clock Unwinds
Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov and Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak—or Zermak, as the two-headed monster of him and Zelensky is jointly called—just came off their Washington begging tour, where they were tasked with selling the escalation war against Russia in order to save Ukraine:
Now that events have been clarified, Zelensky’s final overriding game plan is more obvious than ever. He intends to raise the stakes and costs for everyone involved by bombing targets deep within Russia in order to bring NATO and Russia to the brink of confrontation in the hopes that, through this trial by fire, NATO will somehow find the temerity within itself to get more directly involved in the war so that Zelensky’s dying regime can be saved.
Washington has utilized a slew of dodges and evasions to keep Ukraine from pulling it deeper into the conflict. From the excuse that Russia has already moved all their planes out of ATACMS range, to the new one that ATACMS missiles are running out. In fact, the latest is most dastardly of all, given that there appears to be hint of a threat that should Ukraine continue down this path, the US will stop supplying ATACMS altogether under the guise of their having run out:
CNN, citing a representative of the American administration, reports that Kyiv should not expect new large deliveries of ATACMS missiles.
As the TV channel notes, the number of these missiles in American warehouses is limited, and their production takes a long time.
The above CNN article reads:
And why could that be? Could it be Biden isn’t as stupid as he looks?
I continue to remind people of the false equivalency fed to us: Ukraine sells it as a big ‘disadvantage’ that it is not allowed to strike Russia’s rear operational-strategic depth, yet recall that Ukraine’s own rear depth lies in NATO territory, in Poland, Germany, Romania, etc. Russia does not strike those either, so it really is a fair game not a disadvantage. If Ukraine wants to strike Russia’s rear logistics, then so should Russia be able to strike Reszow base where Ukraine stages its own supplies—to keep things fair and honest.
Now—lo and behold—not surprisingly Russia has again confirmed that it is working on modifying its nuclear doctrine. This time it was Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov:
"As has been repeatedly stated on our part, the work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear directive to make adjustments, which are also conditioned by the study and analysis of the experience of conflict development in recent years, including, of course, everything related to the escalation course of our Western opponents in connection with the SVO," said Sergei Ryabkov.
He explained that the corresponding document is being finalized, but it is too early to talk about a specific timeframe for its completion.
It’s uncertain what to make of it quite yet, but in accordance with developments it was noted by some observers—without verification on my part—that a mysterious Russian radio station UVB-76 has ‘awakened’ for the first time in years:
It is reported that the Russian military radio station UVB-76 has "woken up". The last time it showed its activity was before the decree on mobilization and the Georgian war. Over the past 7 days, 8 messages have been broadcast. The station is called "zhzhuzhalka", no one can decode the signal, but it is distributed throughout the country.
UVB-76 🔥😱
Full logs of the military station : УВБ-76 (http://t.me/uvb76logs)
31.08.2024
The Russian military radio station UVB-76, which had been particularly active before the SMO, the decree on mobilization and the Georgian war, has “woke up”
Buzzer listeners recorded 8 messages in a week.
An important detail, this radio station operates in the shortwave frequency range. From 3 to 30 MHz. Wavelength from 10 to 100 meters. It is used for communication over thousands of kilometers, due to the reflection of electromagnetic waves from the ionosphere. In other words, this is a connection for transmitting messages over very long distances, our country is large. The bandwidth of this connection is small, you can’t watch YouTube or sit in Telegram. The maximum is to fax a piece of paper.
Some say it's the General Staff, the British wrote that it's one of the perimeter elements (dead hand). I also heard a version that these are ciphers for our agents in Europe.
No one knows what its true purpose is but the Wiki article on the station posits that it could be part of the infamous Russian Dead Hand nuclear alert system:
Another theory, described in a BBC article, states that the tower is connected to the Russian 'Perimeter' missile system, and emits a "dead hand" signal that will trigger a nuclear retaliatory response if the signal is interrupted as a result of a nuclear attack against Russia. This theory is also very unlikely, given that The Buzzer stops / breaks down regularly.
It’s easy to go overboard in speculation and fearmongering, but at the same time, it’s not exactly illogical that Russia would begin activating some legacy Soviet nuclear systems as precaution, given the recent developments.
Adjacent to this, it was reported that a top secret direct communications line between Kiev and Moscow, which has operated since 1998, has finally been severed by Ukraine:
Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers has decided to terminate the Agreement between the Ukrainian and Russian governments on the organisation of a direct classified telephone line between Kyiv and Moscow dated 27 February 1998.
Source: the relevant resolution, submitted to the government by Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Education, Science and Technology, was adopted on 30 August. The draft document has been seen by Ekonomichna Pravda
There’s also this report, but it is entirely uncorroborated and unsourced, so I’m only sharing it given the preponderance of other related developments:
The CIA from the United States reports on the appearance of a nuclear transport of the Russian Defense Ministry in the Crimea. Cars of the 12th directorate of the GUMO of the Russian Federation were seen near Kerch. They are indicated quite simply by the number 39 in the region number window. The 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry is engaged in the storage, operation and maintenance of nuclear weapons. It also includes a Special Control Service that monitors nuclear tests in other countries.
This is joined by Western reports, like the following from Reuters, that Russia is deploying its latest Burevestnik—dubbed Skyfall by NATO—nuclear-powered missile north of Moscow:
According to Western intelligence, the Russian Strategic Missile Forces are preparing to deploy in the Vologda Region a positioning area for the Burevestnik strategic missile systems with a nuclear power plant based on 9M730 cruise missiles with an unlimited range and an ultra-low-altitude flight profile. If the information is true, then this step is a completely asymmetric response to the deployment in Germany of the LRHW "Dark Eagle" medium-range missile systems based on the Mach 17-5 hypersonic gliders "Glide Body Block 1", as well as the "Griphon" mobile missile systems based on the subsonic BGM-109E "Tomahawk Block IV" cruise missiles
The Reuters article dismisses the missile, ironically, for the reason that it is redundant to what other Russian ICBMs like the Sarmat can already do. But they only show their own ignorance as the missile is a true game changer, given that it’s a cruise missile, not an intercontinental rocket. The Burevestnik flies very low and has “unlimited” range due to its nuclear power plant. Most people don’t understand the type of threat this poses.
Let’s say the US and Russia got into a confrontation, if Russia launched any kind of intercontinental missile, even if it was not a nuclear one, it would be detected from special space satellites and the US could be obliged to initiate a nuclear exchange because it would be assumed the ballistic missile is nuclear-armed.
However, the Burevestnik allows Russia to launch a cruise missile that can fly at very low altitude around the entire planet at extremely uncommon penetration angles where the US is not defended at all—for instance, from the south Pacific, given that the US anti-ballistic missile shield is mostly in the north in expectation of missiles coming over the arctic.
This would allow Russia to hit sensitive US factories that could instantly wipe out or cripple US’ entire weapons production. Given that US has only one main factory for most of its key weapon systems, disabling them could be an instantly crushing blow to US military power projection.
The Reuters article claims the missile does not have “unlimited” range but estimates perhaps 15,000 miles. This could be accurate given my own calculations: previous nuclear-powered aircraft propulsion tests that I’ve seen have shown 70-200 hours of flight time, though it’s possible to achieve more with modern tech, given that those tests were from the Cold War. A subsonic missile traveling at, let’s say, 400mph for 70 hours would give you 400 x 70 = 28,000 miles. Even the 15k miles Reuters claims is enough for the missile to loop all the way down from Russia into the south Pacific to avoid radar nets, then back up to hit US’ most sensitive weapons manufacturing sites in the southern US.
I.e. this route is almost exactly 15,000 miles:
But there are a variety of ‘interesting’ routes it can take.
It’s just sour grapes that the US has nothing, and isn’t capable of making anything, like it.
Let’s move on to battlefield updates.
A few animated maps of Russia’s progress in the Pokrovsk direction:
As can be seen, the advances in that direction continue. The more interesting updates are the breakouts in other directions.
Ugledar specifically is seeing a new pincer forming, and its days as a major Ukrainian stronghold appear to be numbered. One of the reasons, apparently, was disclosed by infamous rogue Rada MP Mariana Bezuglaya when she accused Syrsky of divesting Ugledar of its main defending brigade to send it elsewhere:
Russian troops were seen capturing the area just northeast of Ugledar while under major attack:
The Attack by Russian Troops on September 1, 2024 on the main site of the Yuzhno-Donbasskaya Mine No. 1. Despite heavy enemy fire and extreme maneuvers by the infantry fighting vehicles, the entire landing force managed to successfully land and occupy the mine's Administrative Building. The BMP also survived the fire unscathed.
Geolocation:
Bild’s Julian Ropcke was again sent into convulsions:
“The Ukrainian soldiers I speak to can hardly explain the catastrophe. Some areas are falling so quickly that they suspect an order to retreat.”
He goes on to say that Ukrainians will not give up but—they are already preparing “for the defense of Dnipro”.
As can be seen, the situation is being viewed as catastrophic at this point.
A well known Ukrainian military channel also showed panic:
Russia's reserves in the Pokrovsky direction exceed the winter campaign in Bakhmut
▪️An officer of the 24th separate assault battalion "Aidar" made a statement about the current situation on the front. According to him, such reserves of Russian infantry are currently concentrated in the Pokrovsky direction that significantly exceed the forces that participated in the winter offensive on Bakhmut in 2023.
▪️ He stressed that one of the most serious mistakes was once again the neglect of the development of defensive fortifications. This omission could have serious consequences for the current situation at the front.
RVvoenkor
The Telegraph’s latest article likewise spoke to an AFU commander who said: “I’ve never seen such speed of Russian advances…we don’t have troops, they outnumber us five to one….the Russians will be in Pokrovsk by mid-September.”
If that wasn’t bad enough, the latest UK Times article agrees that Russia will “launch an offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk region in 2025”:
Firstly, British “military expert” Michael Clarke says the quiet part aloud in the article:
They have conducted special operations and artillery attacks along the whole border with Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions, to spook flat-footed Russian commanders and frighten residents into panic measures.
He plainly admits that Ukrainian forces are using artillery attacks on the Kursk and Belgorod regions’ civilians simply to “frighten [them] into panic measures.” It only confirms things we already know, that, having failed in defeating the Russian Army, the AFU now instead attempts to “defeat” Russian civilians by terrorizing them to chip away at Putin’s consensus.
The article is actually egregious in its shameful attempt at downplaying Ukraine’s losses. It describes advancing Russian forces as being “easy” to take out in “large swathes” by the AFU, characterizing the Pokrovsk fight as a breeze. Then it absurdly goes on to call the forthcoming capture of the city as a “minor” victory, despite admitting it positions Russia to attack Dnipro region in spring of next year:
Zelensky likewise downplayed events, claiming Kursk is a great success and that Russia is transferring huge amounts of troops from Donbass to there, which is a bald-faced lie:
More:
According to the channel of the Ukrainian special forces unit "Extreme Tourism Company," the offensive in Kursk was driven by several factors, including Syrsky's desire to demonstrate a "victory". They also argue that redirecting these forces to Pokrovsk would only delay the inevitable, making the overall decision more advantageous.
The above mentions control of gas, on that note, it was just revealed today that Russia has again supplanted the US to become Europe’s second largest gas supplier. In the below, Russian LNG, Yamal, Ukraine Gas-Transit, and Turk Stream are all sourced from Russia:
By the way, as the AFU retreats from Pokrovsk region, they are reportedly flooding mines to ruin them for Russian control:
This segues us into the next geopolitical segment.
Germany continues to deindustrialize, not to mention experience not only political upheaval but strange incidents of seeming sabotage.
For a long time now there were complaints by German staff that strange unidentified UAVs were hovering over their training grounds, watching their military.
Now those reports have returned, except this time they’re even sighted over German industrial sites:
Unknown UAVs continue to fly near military and industrial sites in Germany.
Over the past month, drones have been spotted over several sites in the industrial region of Schleswig-Holstein – a chemical plant, an LNG terminal, and the Brunsbüttel nuclear power plant, which has been closed since 2007 and is used as a storage facility for spent nuclear fuel. According to Der Spiegel, the state police asked the military for help because the drones were flying away at speeds of up to 100 km/h after being spotted.
Last week, the alert level at the NATO air base in Geilenkirchen was raised to level 2 after “foreign intelligence suggested that a threat could be imminent.” What kind of threat was being discussed, or whether there was one at all, has not been officially reported, but a base spokesman was quick to tell reporters that “nothing was flying over the base” and called the media’s assumptions about drones “absurd.”
This airbase has joined the list of American bases in Europe, where the combat readiness level was previously raised to the "Charlie" level. The activity of unknown UAVs has been noted for more than a year; in 2023, according to the newspaper "Süddeutsche Zeitung", more than 400 drones were spotted near or directly above military facilities in Germany.
Vestnik NATO
Read the last sentence above.
Now, there have been new explosions at a German Diehl plant which is said to produce weapons for Ukraine:
The company also produces anti-aircraft guided missiles for the IRIS-T air defense systems, which, as is known, Berlin also supplies to Ukraine. The company's line of military products also includes Panzerfaust 3 hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers. In addition, the company is engaged in the production of various types drones, including those that the Ukrainian Armed Forces use as “kamikazes”.
There was a previous explosion at Diehl just a couple months ago, if you’ll recall.
Germany is not looking good these days, as historic events become commonplace:
Now all sorts of shenanigans went down after the feared AfD party won the state election in Thuringia, and came in second in Saxony:
AfD's victory in Thuringia marks the first time since WWII that a far-right party appears on course to enter a state parliament, with the far-right party polling at over 32% according to exit polls published on Sunday.
What transpired next was shocking. The election results were deemed “incorrect” by some kind of “software error” and AfD’s victory was rolled back:
How convenient:
Seat allocation in Saxony Germany is corrected, AFD looses blocking majority after a second counting based on a "software glitch" in the first counting Due to a software error, the state election officer in Saxony has corrected the election results: According to this, the CDU and AfD each have one seat less, while the SPD and the Greens each have one seat more. This means that the AfD no longer has a blocking minority.
Listen to how German regime media describes AfD:
SHAMELESS: The German state media calls the win of the AFD a political checkpoint and compares it to World War 2 and the holocaust. Says 30% of the people vote for nazis and should be ashamed of themselves. PS: AFD’s slogan for example is: “Freedom instead of Brussels.”
It was even explained that Germany’s CDU had the more “democratic” votes despite losing, so a government should be formed with a CDU candidate over that of the AfD:
GERMANY FINDS EXPLANATION WHY THE AFD HAS NOT WON!
“The one with the most DEMOCRATIC votes is Mario Voigt (CDU)”
Results:
1) AFD: 30.5%
2) CDU: 24.5% - Most Democratic votes!
Amazing how democracy works in Europe.
Those who have been following the Macron fiasco in France will note that Europe is descending into utter totalitarianism. It is unreal what has happened to Europe—it is virtually on the brink, and there is no more freedom there.
Meanwhile, here’s the statement from the AfD’s co-chairman:
Statements by a representative of the AfD party that won in eastern Germany
Co-chairman of the Alternative for Germany Tino Chrupalla: We clearly state: stop supplying weapons to Ukraine! €30 billion - what madness!, We demand a broad mix of energy: coal, nuclear, gas from Russia. This ensured our prosperity.
On Nord Stream: Germany was attacked, our infrastructure was destroyed. Ostashko reports
—
Not to feel left out, the UK has also demonstrated its rapid decline as the Royal Navy’s Vanguard Class submarine came home from a long deployment looking like absolute hell:
Some tried to defend it by saying this is normal amounts of algae build up after a long deployment—but that’s the whole point, the Royal Navy is in such bad shape its few functioning subs are forced to go on excessively long deployments to cover for the decay.
—
Meanwhile, another source has confirmed that Putin’s approval has dipped in Russia following events in Kursk:
The level of trust of Russians in Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a survey conducted from August 19 to 25, has decreased by 2.5% and is 75.7% - data from VTsIOM
And here is the latest survey regarding the SMO—click on each graph to increase its size:
Russians' attitude to peace talks
At the request of EJ/Diary, we asked Russians two questions about which development of events during the “military operation” they would most likely support:
🪖 40% spoke in favor of continuing the “military operation”
🕊 43% support the transition to peace negotiations
Compared to previous waves of the survey, the share of those in favor of continuing military action remained virtually unchanged, while the share of those in favor of peace negotiations decreased by 6 percentage points. At the same time, in the two previous studies (February and May 2024), the share of those in favor of negotiations reached its maximum value since the beginning of the NWO: 49%.
👍 70% of Russians surveyed would support Putin's decision to stop military action and start negotiations
👎 17% would not support such a decision by the president
In both cases, the transition to peace negotiations is mostly supported by women and respondents aged 18-29. The opposite opinion is more often held by men and respondents over 45.
Russian Field | All-Russian telephone survey August 14-23, 2024, 1600 respondents
In short, while those supporting peace still slightly outnumber the ones supporting continuation of the war, the number for those supporting negotiations is dropping and is therefore trending to become the minority in the near future. The ones supporting negotiations had peaked around February to May of this year, and are now on the way down, likely helped along by the Kursk situation which has aroused anger and vengefulness in Russia.
—
In related news, Turkey, Algeria, and Palestine have all officially applied to join BRICS:
Meanwhile, members of a nationalist Turkish youth movement took two American sailors hostage and put bags over their heads as they screamed for help in the middle of Izmir:
This was followed by protests shouting “Yankee, go home!”
"Yankee, Go Home!!" Protesters have begun marching in Türkiye, shouting for Americans to go home. These marches come shortly after videos surfaced of American service members being harassed by Turkish civilians. There are several US Military Bases in Türkiye, four major ones, including Incirlik, the largest and most strategically important base. Incirlik Air Base stores nuclear weapons belonging to the USA, including B61 gravity bombs.
Things seem to be going well for the Empire.
—
Couple last items:
American TOW ATGMs massively failed in Taiwan tests, with reportedly 60% hitting their targets and claims that Taiwan now wants to dump the weapons systems:
Well, I had already long reported from the US Army’s own internal documents that both their TOW and Javelin in fact achieved less than 19% effectiveness by their own figures:
—
New types of anti-drone systems are being developed which could in the future make FPVs obsolete:
Drone wars
🇷🇺
Nova Labs is currently developing a AI powered drone interceptor that can be fired manually by a human operator or set up in auto mode on a tripod. Successful interception test seen at the end of the video.
—
Meanwhile a strange new napalm-spewing drone was seen on the front, with both the Russian side (via Rybar) and AFU claiming it as their own. It appears designed to set hedgerows, trench positions, and equipment stored thereof on fire, and looks quite menacing from afar:
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The good news was that Flamethrower FPV (or rather dropping phosphorus?) and the Anti-drone gadget. This will change the Combat on the ground to the better. Imagine Uki trenches in all these forest-lines drenched in fire? Hope they deploy fast and before the rains sets in. And the Anti-drone is good news for Soldiers on the ground. I have nightmares over all the suffering the guys have on the field. Could well explain why younger people are ”against” the War and positive to negotiations. Who will die at the front from a Drone?
Bad news that US cant control the Mad dogs in Ukraine. Ukraine sent 160 drones deep into Russia. They will certainly send 160 StormShadow if given the chance. UK&France has no problems with that but Germany is reluctant as is US for now. I think US dont want a escalated War until a new President is elected. All this shit about Red lines is psy-ops from the Western Perception War-abteilungs. They invent ”Russian” red lines that they cross on purpose, time after time, forcing people to believe that Russia is weak or behaving erratic. Russia and Putin is very clear (without mentioning any red lines).
And suddenly West will see the response.
Yermak is single and has no children. How do Ukrainian parents allow him to send their kids to die, while he steals from American taxpayers? Macron, Starmer, and Scholz are pathetic. Western Europe is returning to the dark ages. Jail for peasants who speak out against mass migration, deindustrialization through ESG degrowth, and mass third world migration are suicidal - the beatings will continue until morale improves.