SITREP 8/16/24: Zelensky's Nuclear Gambit Rears Its Head Again
More and more “rumors” insist that Zelensky is planning a devious escalation to his Kursk game in the form of a ‘nuclear event’ of some kind. The threat seems serious enough that major outlets like RIA and RT are covering it:
Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador Miroshnik, speaking about the Ukrainian Armed Forces preparing to attack Russian nuclear facilities, urged the U.S. to obtain information from Kiev on this matter. "It would be wise for the White House to inquire with their Nazi protégés about what they are planning and preparing for this time, so there will be no reason later to claim they knew nothing about the upcoming stunt!"
Per RIA Novosti the planned strike against both nuclear power plants is being supervised by the Intelligence Services of the United Kingdom. Large numbers of Western journalists are in Zaporozhye and Sumy to report on the strikes and ensure early spin.
Another report:
‼️🇺🇦 🏴☠️ Ukraine intends to strike Zaporizhzhya and Kursk NPPs - sources
▪️The strikes are planned to be carried out on spent nuclear fuel storage sites in the Kursk and Zaporizhia regions, federal media reported, citing security forces.
▪️The Kiev regime plans to attach a warhead with radioactive material - the so-called "dirty bomb".
▪️According to sources, the warheads were delivered to the Eastern Mining and Processing Plant in the village of Zhovti Vody in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
▪️The purpose of this action is to accuse Russia of committing a nuclear provocation.
❗️A large number of Western reporters have arrived in Sumy and Zaporizhia amid Kiev’s preparations for an attack on the Kursk and Zaporizhia NPPs
❗️Local residents should not panic, our forces are monitoring the situation and keeping an eye on the enemy, including strengthening air defense.
Rvvoenkor
Truthfully, though, I really don’t understand this plan, as it is explained. According to the reports based on some Russian defense insiders, Ukrainians have smuggled nuclear material in the form of a ‘dirty bomb’ somewhere into Dnipro region, and are planning to use it inside of a missile attack onto either the Russian ZNPP or Kursk nuclear power plants. In particular, they plan to hit the depleted nuclear fuel storage casks.
But logically speaking, why would you need nuclear material of your own, if you already plan to hit the storage casks which contain spent fuel rods, if you want to create a nuclear contamination incident? That’s the part I don’t quite understand. I suppose it would create a ‘larger’ incident, plus the dirty bomb would have more “live” material that would create greater contamination, but it’s still strange enough that I would have dismissed it offhand if it weren’t for the fact authentic sources are reporting it, which include Russian Chief of the Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Defense Forces Igor Kirillov.
This is about the third or fourth time we’ve been down this road; this has been a long-lasting plan of Ukraine’s from as far back as 2022. But things are culminating now in a way where Zelensky may finally be ready to unload all trump cards, since things are melting down for the AFU on the front.
A reminder:
This same week 2 years ago Ukrainian Nazi Korchinsky proposed to strike at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant:
- "They can be stopped only with a nuclear attack"...“Yes, it is a risk. Many people will suffer ... You have to strike, there is no other way."
Right now, the information campaign being coordinated in parallel with the Kursk offensive is reaching a deafening fever pitch. NATO and its vast intel machinery are working overtime to push the narrative that the Kursk campaign is ‘overwhelming’ Putin and Russia, that internal fissures are threatening to swallow Putin’s ‘regime’ whole, and that things are generally collapsing for Russia. Even the latest Western articles are switching to this last blind shot in the dark to give Ukraine a chance:
The latest push includes all kinds of provocations, such as foreign journalists—from UK and Italy—embedded with the AFU, illegally entering sovereign Russian territory to report from it.
Here’s British CNN correspondent illegally entering Russian territory:
This includes infamous American mercenary outfit ‘Forward Observation Group’ flaunting the fact they too are allegedly in Kursk:
This is a timed and calculated provocation, meant to push Russia to the brink, hitting every conceivable pressure point of outrage, stoking ancestral Russian pride and patriotism. And it’s true, the invasion is a black eye on Russia, to an extent—but it must be considered within the grander overall scope of the situation: things feel terminal for Ukraine; Zelensky is accelerating as if propelled by some unprecedentedly urgent impetus. By his own actions, he’s demonstrating that Ukraine appears to be on the brink, and the West is giving its all in what may amount to be one final heroic propaganda provocation to try to stir Russia out of its comfort zone.
We can see the two-pronged urgency emerge from the dire situation on Ukraine’s eastern flank in Donbass, as the collapse continues to accelerate there.
Today was a record day for enterprise level destruction of Ukraine’s biggest prestige systems.
A Mig-29 destroyed in its airfield berth in Dnepropetrovsk airbase, at geolocation: 48.3588265, 35.0817737
This was followed by half a dozen Patriot launchers in two separate locations being hit by Iskander cluster attacks:
And a highly valuable German Iris-T air defense system:
As well as Sa-125:
And the crowning achievement, a HIMARS destroyed in the Sumy region, which was likely being used to hit Russian bridges in Kursk:
Aftermath:
And much more.
Meanwhile, the squeeze is on for Ukraine’s troops in the Donetsk direction:
"'We don’t have enough people to do our job properly,' said the commander of the 21st Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade... Russia has a 10-to-1 advantage in artillery fire in some areas.
In addition, the Russians are neutralizing Ukrainian drones with electronic jammers. But the biggest factor, officers say, is the lack of manpower...
'If we’re supposed to have five or six people in a position, we’ll have two or three,'...He said they were so short-handed that cooks, mechanics and other rear personnel were being deployed to trenches.
Now, he said, the Russians have a manpower advantage of around five to one. Only about 20% of the casualties his battalion takes are replaced by new recruits, and the mobilized men who arrive tend to be older than those who volunteered at the start of the war.
Do yourself a favor and re-read this very carefully:
For the folks who still believe the casualties are even, or in Ukraine’s favor, could you kindly explain how—as the commander above admits—the two sides had “roughly the same number of men” in the spring, and now Russians have a 5:1 manpower advantage? You would think that sort of implies that one side is losing massively more men than the other.
A senior US official and a senior European intelligence official both said a major goal of the operation appears to be to create “strategic dilemmas” for Putin, particularly when it comes to where Russia should allocate manpower.
As stated above, it becomes increasingly clear Ukraine has various asymmetric goals with its Kursk operation, rather than defined physical objectives. Mikhail Podolyak just outright admitted on his official account that Ukraine is “not interested occupying Russian territories:
Ukraine is not interested in occupying Russian territories. This is obvious. Because #Ukraine is waging an exclusively defensive war strictly within the framework of international law... But if we are talking about potential negotiations – I emphasize potential – we will have to put #Rf at the table opposite. On our own terms. We have absolutely no plans to beg: "Please, sit down to negotiate". Instead, we have proven, effective means of coercion.
The Ukrainian presidential advisor openly admits the Kursk ploy revolves around “coercing” Russia to the negotiating table on Ukraine’s terms. In fact, the whole point, which was recently spelled out, was to hijack the Kursk nuclear power plant then hold it for “ransom” in blackmailing Russia to pause the war and enter negotiations at an unfavorable position.
He goes on:
In addition to economic and diplomatic ones, this is also a military tool. We need to inflict significant tactical defeats on #Russia. In the Kursk region, we can clearly see how the military tool is being used objectively to persuade Rf to enter a fair negotiation process. Once again, to enter into a negotiation process, not the traditional Russian propaganda and capitulation blackmail...
But now that the plan was thwarted and Ukraine stands no chance of capturing the plant, it appears they may be proceeding to Plan B, which is to use nuclear blackmail of a far more sinister variety via the dirty bomb method.
However, there continue to be strong indications that the Kursk operation is still potentially just the opening salvo of a larger overture. Reports of troop concentrations and equipment, such as supply trucks, being moved around the Zaporozhye region abound.
From Condotierros channel:
"The Ukrainian Armed Forces headquarters are preparing for another phase of the counteroffensive. This time in the south, in the Zaporozhye region.
They are planning to target the nuclear power plant [in Energodar]
For more than a week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been increasing the number of armored vehicles in the direction of Orekhovo. The enemy is conducting reconnaissance and is especially trying to uncover the movement of our military units. An important element is also the "march of fuel trucks" through the city of Zaporozhye from west to south. A significant number of vehicles carry the "blood of war" for armored vehicles. At the same time, they were moving with their beacons extinguished, which may indicate real movement, and not a demonstrative movement of columns for false purposes.
It is quite possible that the enemy will undertake similar attempts as in the Kursk region. Kiev's terrorist forms of work are clear: an attempt to seize Russian land/an important negotiating facility. Such goals are confirmed by officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and mercenaries captured in the Kursk region."
They have done this several times before - so this is definitely in keeping with them. If it happens expect things to get bumpy but Russia has fended off several assaults before.
Rezident UA’s rumor mill notes:
#Inside
Our source in the General Staff said that the issue of the second stage of the counteroffensive will be resolved next week at the rate, no more than twenty days remain to start the operation to capture the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have enough reserves to conduct an operation in the Kursk region and an attack on the Zaporizhzhya NPP, which was originally the main goal, but after going deep into the territories of Russia, it faded into the background.
Igor Strelkov allegedly wrote a letter from prison, wherein he reveals he’s been watching the situation and likewise believes Ukraine is gearing up for the main attack, after launching the Kursk diversionary raid:
Recall that thus far, the Kursk direction appears to mostly employ the Ukrainian 22nd, 80th, and 82nd brigades, with some reinforced elements and separate special forces detachments, like the ‘Bravo Team’ from the 130th Reconnaissance Battalion. But Zelensky allegedly had as many as 8-14 total brigades, which means it is conceivable that a main thrust will be launched at Zaporozhye nuclear plant in Energodar to basically achieve the same objective that Kursk could have achieved if they had broken through to Kurchatov. Of course, it’s also very possible that all the Zaporozhye movements are just maskirovka meant to keep Russia on its toes while Ukraine goes all-in on Kursk.
But Kursk itself isn’t out of danger yet. Top Russian analyst channel Two Majors claims that the AFU has begun introducing “main reserves” into the Kursk “break through”, in the form of the elite 95th Brigade:
Now Ukrainian forces have used HIMARS to take out 3 key bridges along the Seym River, isolating the Glushkovo district, south of Rylsk and west of Sudzha:
But the Russians immediately established pontoons:
Ukraine claims “700 Russian troops” are encircled and semi-trapped in this Glushkovo region. While that’s likely a farcical lie, it’s not well known precisely what condition the troops there are in, and it’s safe to say logistics may have been greatly impacted by the bridge hits. More than that, not all the area’s civilians have been evacuated yet and many are trapped, which Ukraine now intends to kidnap and take to Sumy region.
But keep in mind, this area is near the Ukrainian border, where the AFU are snuffling around while they continue to be fully stopped in all the important directions where they attempted to advance—like Korenevo, north of Sudzha, and even Sudzha itself which Russian sources still indicate is mostly in the gray zone, contrary to what fake AFU videos shot on the western edge of the city claim to depict.
By the way, it should be noted that is true confirmation that Ukraine is now using HIMARS—i.e. top Western weaponry—on actual Russian territory. Yet they continue to cry that ATACMS is not permitted. What seems most likely is that U.S. has authorized usage of these weapons against small time targets and troop concentrations on Russian territory, just not true ‘red line’ objects like strategic bases, etc.
In fact Pentagon spokesman Sabrina Singh just said that “we’re worried about escalation”, and clearly expressed that they fear a major Russian “response”:
Meanwhile, elsewhere the U.S. establishment actually said that ATACMS stocks are so “limited” they don’t want Ukraine wasting them on Russian territory but on strategically important places of the actual battlefield and in Crimea, etc. So make what you will of the two alternate official explanations.
In Sumy, by the way, flyers are posted all over the city desperately urging for truck drivers with refrigerated vans to transport AFU corpses because losses appear to be so high that the AFU themselves have run out of trucks:
Translated:
—
To get back to Pokrovsk, the city administration is already panicking and has called for a mass evacuation, which was echoed by Rada deputy Bezuglaya:
Russian forces have already taken two new areas since last time, and are getting close to both Mirnograd and Pokrovsk:
In fact, Ukrainian troops screech that Russian forces are approaching Selydove, just south of there as well:
He states that if the Russians get to it, Selydove will fall very quickly, and it will threaten the whole Kurakhove region south of it, which will then eventually lead to the downfall of Ugledar itself, as Ugledar’s supply lines are already cut from nearly every direction but the north one.
Another Ukrainian officer:
—
Besides the collapsing frontline, the most important aspect driving Zelensky’s last desperate Kursk bid is that Ukraine has entered its economic doom spiral. Fitch has just cut Ukraine down to ‘restricted default’ from CCC- rating, after Ukraine effectively defaulted on its eurobond debt:
Default on Eurobond: The downgrade of Ukraine's LTFC IDR to 'RD' follows the expiration of the 10-day grace period for the 2026 USD750 million Eurobond coupon payment due on 1 August. This marks an event of default under Fitch's criteria with respect to the sovereign's IDR as well as the individual issue rating of the affected security.
Now couple the growing economic disaster with what is soon to take place for Ukrainian civil society, and by extension its economy, after Russia finishes off the electric grid for this coming winter.
There are now rumors Russia plans a historic, record-breaking series of strikes on Ukraine for the Kursk affront, while others believe the grid-crippling strikes will come later in the fall. Whichever it is, Ukraine will be in dire shape come this winter, and afterwards in the spring. By then the collapse will have accelerated on every front of Ukraine’s existence, including the political—after the U.S. elections.
Zelensky knew his window was closing and he had to go all out in a final bid despite not having any reserves left to bother with the main strategic frontline. It feels more and more likely that these next few months will truly be decisive.
That all being said, the opening of the Kursk operation was certainly still a fairly competent showing by the AFU, and a pretty poor one for Russia. Ukraine released this footage of the very first attack on the Kursk border checkpoint, where AFU tanks were able to drive up and fire on the checkpoint unopposed:
Someone recently wrote, “a dinosaur turns slowly”, and it is a kind of apt description of the Russian general staff’s quite ponderously stiff control of this sector. However, Russia cinched things up fairly fast after that, as reinforcements were able to be quickly redeployed, and begin setting up regional-operational command and control oversight in short order which, it must be said, was impressive in its adaptiveness and agility.
—
A few last videos:
German generals provocatively discussing battle plans for invasion into Russia, a quite jarring modern sight:
Zelensky formally requests Syrsky to find more meat for the Kursk grinder:
Zelensky asks Syrsky to find more people for the offensive on Kursk region "I understand that it is not easy, but maybe we can somehow strengthen our troops in these areas," he said.
Many Ukrainian prisoners continue to be captured in Kursk, including women:
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Thank you for a calm report - You will have noticed that the trolls are very active on this subject
It is part of the MSM propaganda campaign you describe