SITREP 8/1/25: Chasov Yar Falls, Pokrovsk Crumbles, Zelensky Sinks
In a spate of panic Zelensky somehow managed to get the Rada to return and quickly amend the anti-corruption law, which he immediately signed into force. But it did not go without theatrics, as fights broke out and infamous Rada pest Goncharenko lashed out at Zelensky directly:
Zelensky’s seeming backtracking, however, did not end the latest MSM blitz against his ‘image’. Even protests continued, as people took to the streets outside the Rada building while the vote was in progress.
At the same time, the Western narrative machine has ramped up in pushing Zelensky’s would-be successor to the fore, as Vogue released an eyeroll-inducing feature on Zaluzhny undoubtedly meant to begin massaging his image, revealing his soft ‘human side’ in run up to the eventual narratives that will convince us why he’ll make such a great new “people’s leader”:
At this point, one is almost apt to root for Zelensky, given that he’s gone off-script and may soon become a veritable underdog against his former masters.
In the meantime, Trump has grown “tired” not only of waiting for Russia to settle the conflict, but apparently of talking to Russia at all. He’s now fast-forwarded his ‘tariffs’ deadline to what is now less than ten days, which Russia is even mocking by running tariff count-down tickers on their news feeds. But even Trump admitted the tariffs “may not work” and seemed generally half-hearted and lackadaisical about the whole thing—or perhaps, more aptly, defeated:
It continues to have the feel of ‘going through the motions’ merely to appease hardliners who hold all the political and donor power in Washington.
At the very least we now know precisely what Trump will do, and precisely what effect it will have—which is zero. This gives us a better handle at analyzing and predicting the remaining course of the Ukrainian conflict, at least for the medium term future, now that any potential ‘big surprises’ are virtually written off.
Turning to the conflict, several outlets like CNN have begun finally admitting to Russian successes in the summer campaign, no longer mindlessly toting out platitudes about “insignificantly small” advances. In the latest piece, CNN concedes these ‘bite-sized’ advances are quickly adding up:
Across eastern Ukraine, Russia’s tiny gains are adding up. It is capitalizing on a series of small advances and throwing significant resources into an emerging summer offensive, one that risks reshaping control over the front lines.
Over four days reporting in the villages behind Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk – two of the most embattled Ukrainian towns in Donetsk region – CNN witnessed the swift change in control of territory. Russian drones were able to penetrate deep into areas Kyiv’s forces once relied upon as oases of calm, and troops struggled to find the personnel and resources to halt a persistent enemy advance.
A Ukrainian officer goes on to tell CNN that Russians have already moved into the outskirts of both Rodinske and Bilytske, threatening to cut off the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration:
One Ukrainian commander serving near the town described “a very bad scenario,” in which troops in the adjoining town to Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, risked “being surrounded.” The officer added Russians had already moved into the nearby village of Rodynske, and were on the edges of Biletske, endangering the supply line for Ukrainian troops inside Pokrovsk – assessments confirmed by a Ukrainian police officer and another Ukrainian soldier to CNN Tuesday.
The commander, who like many officials spoke on condition of anonymity discussing a sensitive topic, said they feared a siege was likely, similar to Avdiivka and Vuhledar last year, where “we held out to the last and lost both cities and people as a result.”
In Konstantinovka, CNN found even worse problems, with one commander telling CNN:
Vasyl, a commander with the 93rd Mechanized brigade, said he had not been sent new personnel for eight months, and was forced to resupply frontline positions of only two men with drones, airlifting in food, water and ammunition.
“No one wants to fight”, he said. “The old personnel are left, they are tired and want to be replaced, but no one is replacing them.” He blamed Ukrainian officers for giving inaccurate reports of the front line to their superiors. “A lot of things are not communicated and are hidden,” he said. “We don’t communicate a lot of things to our state. Our state doesn’t communicate a lot of things to the people.”
CNN admits that Russian forces are now threatening Kupyansk as well, and the simultaneous fall of these major cities on top of Zelensky’s political crisis is a perfect storm in the making:
The accumulative effect of a Ukrainian manpower crisis, the turbulence of Kyiv’s relationship with the Trump White House, and uncertain supplies of weaponry, are a perfect storm that has broken in the face of the vigor and persistence of a Russian summer offensive, whose progress is no longer incremental but is reshaping the conflict and bringing Putin closer to some of his goals fast.
The Telegraph’s tone was no less urgent in their latest update:
The article likewise details Pokrovsk’s coming fall, even going so far as to absurdly claim Russians are now copying successful Wehrmacht tactics—one supposes this is high compliment from them:
According to Ukrainian soldiers in the area, the Russians are employing tactics reminiscent of the Germans in the Second World War, identifying weak points in logistics, then moving in to sever them. Cutting off supply lines has been a priority for Putin’s commanders since last year.
Their supplied map better illustrates how Russian forces are close to cutting the last vital supply route there:
Families with children were ordered to evacuate (Dobropillia) on July 24 amid fierce fighting
Russian troops ambushed a Ukrainian unit in Rodyns'ke on July 27
Russians effectively severed road - a vital logical artery for supplying Pokvrosk
Key route to reach Kostiantynivka as other routes controlled by Russia
Battles taking place near industrial city
Fierce fighting erupted near Pokrovsk, a key defensive line
The authors write that after Pokrovsk, the road to Pavlograd is open:
The fall of Pokrovsk is widely anticipated. If it does, only open farmland will separate the front line from Pavlohrad, terrain that is notoriously difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend.
They conclude that Pokrovsk may fall from within days to weeks at most:
Today, that line is beginning to fray. Some believe a full-scale collapse is imminent. Although Russia has not yet launched a sustained assault on the city itself, each passing day brings Pokrovsk closer to encirclement.
Some soldiers predict it could fall within days, others say weeks. Few now speak in terms of uncertainty, only of timing.
Soldiers attribute the rapid acceleration to elite Russian drone units that were previously deployed in Kursk and have now been redirected to Pokrovsk. They believe Putin has fixed his sights on the city and will use the full force of his military to seize it.
Top Ukrainian officer channels likewise comment on the situation in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. One report points to Russian forces slowly penetrating Mirnograd to try and cut it off from Pokrovsk, likely similar to how Severodonetsk and Lisichansk were taken:
Meanwhile, Pokrovsk itself is in the early stages of being stormed—a message from two days ago had already pointed to major Ukrainian losses just from Russian DRGs (diversionary recon and sabotage groups):
Note in particular how the internal memos always contradict the topsoil level slop for the masses about “endless Russian losses”—here they admit Russian groups are not taking particularly heavy casualties.
Rada MP Bezuglaya posted a comparison of how similar Pokrovsk is looking to the final phase of Avdeevka:
Meanwhile, there are increasing claims Russian forces have already established footholds all over the city, with some geolocated drone footage attesting to this—but it appears more likely many parts of the city are merely ‘gray zones’ for now:
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction – short summary: Russian “Center” group is advancing into the Krasnoarmeysk-Dimitrov (Pokrovsk-Mirnograd) agglomeration. Storm units are confirmed in northern Pokrovsk near Chaikovsky Street and are fighting near Schmidt (Mazepa) Street by the railway station. Kiev forces were caught off guard, causing panic. Russian troops may split the city into east and west, creating a threat of encircling Mirnograd (Dimitrov). Supply routes are under Russian fire control — about half of Kiev’s transport doesn’t reach the city anymore. Kiev forces are deploying reserves but appear to lack enough infantry. The loss of Nikanorovka and Suvorovo, and Russian breakthroughs between Belitskoye and Rodinskoye, worsen their position. The situation is highly dynamic and critical for Kiev forces.
However, top Ukrainian analyst Myroshnikov refutes the above, claiming Pokrovsk will hold out until winter and beyond:
The enemy has not entered Pokrovsk with main forces.
DRGs (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) constantly try to break into the city, but usually these attempts are unsuccessful and are a one-way ticket.
And with main forces - no, what are we talking about?
Of course, the situation is very difficult and sooner or later the enemy will enter the southern quarters of Pokrovsk.
But this whole operation will take a long time.
The occupiers will conduct it both in autumn and in winter.
Pokrovsk is one of the key points in this war, and no one will give it up. It will be hell for the enemy there.
The problem is, there are also unverified reports Russians have already struck out towards the railway tracks north of Rodinske, capturing a small portion of them, which would mean Pokrovsk’s main artery would be completely cut:
If that’s truly the case, then it’s hard to imagine Pokrovsk holding out “until winter”, or even close to it. But it all depends how many reserves Zelensky starts pumping into it. There could be another replay of Avdeevka where the 47th Brigade was brought in towards the end, armed with Leopards and Bradleys, and began giving Russian forces advancing on Stepove and Berdychi major problems.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, this wasn’t the only area to suffer setbacks the past few days.
In Zaporozhye, Russian forces likewise struck out with another series of successful advances. After earlier capturing Kamyanske, they’ve now entered Plavni and have even begun capturing Stepnogorsk further north:
A Ukrainian officer channel confirms:
They report that the reason for Zaporozhye’s weakening defense was that Zelensky took its best brigades to Sumy in order to plug Russian advances there:
Sure, he succeeded for the time being, as Sumy advances have slowed and Ukraine was even able to retake Kondritovka, but it shows the kind of shell game Ukraine is forced to play, moving their few good units around the map to plug gaps while other areas begin to fall.
Further east on the Velyka Novosilka line at the juncture of Zaporozhye, Dnipro, and Donetsk regions, Russian forces struck out and captured Temirovka—more specifically the 394th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motor Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army:
Temirovka,Zaporizhzhya region
Russian Forces push West of Zelene Pole and raise the 🇷🇺flag in Temirovka(1:45).
Quote
💥 As a result of decisive and skillful offensive actions by the stormtroopers of the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th division of the 5th army of the "Vostok" troop grouping, another settlement - Temirovka in the Zaporizhzhia region has been liberated.
💥 Temirovka is a well-fortified defense point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, covered from the southwest by a water barrier. In total, during the battles, more than 5 square kilometers of territory and over 320 buildings turned into defensive positions by the enemy were liberated.
Additional footage:
Footage of the clearing of positions by the 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the approaches to the previously captured Temirovka is published by the Telegram channel “Warrior DV”.
Just north of there Russia expanded control around recently captured Zeleni Hai, beginning the push north toward neighboring Ivanovka:
Over by Konstantinovka, the Russian MOD announced the full capture of long-embattled Chasov Yar. Russians posted geolocated footage raising the flag on the western outskirts of the town, despite Ukrainian claims the town had not fallen.
More interesting is this video from the 98th Airborne operating in Chasov Yar detailing one of the key tactics that has allowed Russian forces to begin dominating:
In essence, they have begun heavily prioritizing specialist anti-drone units whose job is to “clear the skies” of enemy drones.
This has been a big trend recently on many other Russian fronts. Another recent report predicted that Ukrainian ‘Baba Yaga’ drones will cease to exist soon because of the ease with which Russia has now begun to track and take them out. Such heavy copter drones will still play an increasingly critical role on the battlefield, but more for fire support and logistics: delivering aid, as well as supporting infantry in battle via ATGM and other longer-distance fired weapons attached to the drones. In the current FPV dominated airspace, hovering huge hex- and octo-copters over enemy positions leads to the drone’s rapid destruction.
Report from Starshe Eddy:
Soon the main task of heavy drones today, that is, bombing positions by dropping [grenades], will come to naught. Both the number of weapons used to destroy such drones and the experience of fighters capable of hitting this drone with small arms fire are growing in the army. But large modular drones actually have a great future.
Bombing from low altitudes, it's essentially «a crutch». At one time, it showed itself very well, but in any case, a direct drop of ammunition from a height of several tens of meters will go away, too many drones are lost, and the main task of such a drone will be to deliver ammunition/provisions to the front line, as well as support assault operations. The drops will be replaced by other weapons, primarily ATGMs/grenade launchers, as well as riflemen. It is in these versions that a heavy drone will be developed, which will essentially become an unmanned attack helicopter, capable of both supporting assault groups with fire and providing front-line logistics.
Our industry and army are moving in this direction and soon we will see assaults on strongholds, where fire support for the troops will be provided by a heavy quadcopter, destroying the enemy with fire from special small arms and flamethrowers/ATGMs/grenade launchers.
On the northern front, Russian forces have finally broken into Kupyansk city proper, assaulting the city from the north and capturing outer districts:
One Ukrainian report describes the issues on this sector:
‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️Russians have sharply complicated logistics in Kupyansk, transport is instantly destroyed, - head of the military administration
▪️It is impossible to move around the city by car - Russian troops immediately strike with FPV drones, said Andrey Besedin. It is also impossible to bring food and supplies there.
➖"Without any communications. We cannot bring in..." - he added.
▪️Earlier, RVvoenkor repeatedly showed how during the offensive on Kupyansk "Groza" massively burns equipment with the Armed Forces militants in the city and district.
▪️Recall, recently Russian troops significantly advanced from the north, northwest and entered the outskirts of Kupyansk, and are also approaching the highway to Kharkiv.
RVvoenkor
There were many other smaller advances, but these larger ones are enough to get an overview.
There was reportedly one unsuccessful assault captured by Ukrainian drones on the Seversk front which featured a heavy armor train, as well as the motorcycle groupings we’ve come to expect. Ukraine claims to have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians, and while no advance was recorded which seems to imply the assault failed, the Ukrainian video below does not clearly show any excessively large casualties:
Most likely the assault was a failure with higher than average losses, but the remainder successfully retreated. That said, some Russian channels do complain of the ‘incompetence’ of the command in this sector, which would explain the years of stagnation here without the same successes seen on other brighter fronts.
Overall, the month’s gains were the strongest all year:
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in July 2025 liberated over 629 km² of territory in the special military operation zone, demonstrating the best advancement rates since the beginning of 2025.
Some last items of note:
Trump says that he’s now stopped six wars during his term, and he’s averaging one new war ended per month—which, of course, qualifies him for the Nobel Peace Prize—or maybe even multiple ones!:
But if you thought that wasn’t enough, Peter Navarro declares Trump should also receive the Nobel Prize for Economics for teaching the world about tariffs:
Has anyone won two Nobels at the same time before? This could be a world first.
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In the meantime, Arestovich has explained that Trump’s sanctions will do nothing but harden Russians and make them fight even more bitterly. According to him, the West simply does not understand how the Russian mentality works—the more you threaten their motherland, the more fanatical and unstoppable they become:
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An interesting new estimate of Russian vs. NATO weapons production was released by Radio Liberty, covering various different categories. It seems relatively accurate from my estimates.
Annual air defense production, probably in launchers unless otherwise stated:
Fighter jets:
Main battle tanks:
Of course, the above includes only brand new tanks, not the additional 1,200+ per year Russia supplies to the army via refurbed hulls, i.e. T-80BVMs, T-72B3Ms, T-62Ms, etc.
Artillery:
Only questionable thing on the list are the Caesars which are based on very dubiously ‘promised’ ramp-up figures. And again, these are only newly produced systems for Russia, not counting refurbs.
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A final complaint from Ukrainian channels about brigades, particularly the 34th operating on the Dnieper—which are being wiped out in senseless assaults there, just like Khrynki long ago. In particular he notes that if nothing is done, then they will be entirely wiped out and Russian forces will land on the Kherson side of the bank:
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Great forensic reporting here about the Russians pressing ahead on multiple fronts, Simplicius. The Russian bear is squeezing AFU forces and grinding them down. I look forward to the Russian summer offensive.
Trump seems to be falling into a trap. Deficit in June has been revised from $500 billion to $1 trillion. Another $2.5 trillion of debt forecast for 2025. Dollar sliding, Tbonds at almost 5%. China maintaining their export numbers at over $1 trillion surplus. Things aren't too rosey.