SITREP 7/6/24: Narrative Builds that Putin Desperate to End Conflict - Is He Really?
Orban’s visit to Moscow set the European political seraglio aflame this week. The histrionic theatrics were on full performative display as the chorus of captured crones and cucks crowed in limp futility:
For his part, Orban conveyed that Putin is a totally rational negotiator:
But the prevailing narrative that’s now swept over the commentariat and MSM-propagand-o-sphere is that Russia is desperately pushing for an end to the conflict. Everywhere you look, Putin is characterized as virtually begging for a ceasefire. News release after news release revolves around Russia nudging toward a cessation of hostilities, with Putin’s various speeches and soundbites used to support this.
But how true is it, really?
I’m here to tell you unambiguously: it’s total misdirection.
Not once has Putin brought up ceasefires or negotiations—in every case it is others who push him on the topic, and he’s merely forced to respond in diplomatic fashion. Just like recently, when Putin peevishly commented on the nuclear issue, when someone had asked why he was pushing the concept of nuclear war so much of late: Putin said it was not him bringing it up, but people continue to ask him about nuclear weapons during Q&As or interviews, and he’s forced to respond to their questions. These answers are then quoted out of context by clickbait-happy yellow press outlets to make it seem like Russia is constantly agitating for nuclear war.
Similarly, there has been a steady spate of questions thrown at Putin during every public occasion of the last month or so. Let’s run down a few of them for illustrative purposes:
Just a week ago at the SCO meeting in Astana, Putin made several comments about ceasefires and negotiations:
This was twisted to mean that Putin is the one pushing the topic. But what was left out of the truncated clips was the fact that it was actually the SCO members who presented a ceasefire proposal during the meeting—as you can see above.
Afterwards, the press corps continued to question Putin on the topic, to which he was again forced to respond:
Next, after Trump had recently made statements about negotiating an end to the war “on his first day of office”, Putin was again misquoted in responding to this. Pundits and press outlets claimed Putin said he “supports Trump’s plan to end the war”—which is a total lie:
Firstly, you can see what Putin said for yourself—not only is he once again responding to reporter’s questions and not pushing the topic of negotiations himself, he merely demurs by diplomatically implying that Trump’s effort is a good thing, but that Putin knows nothing about it:
Once again, it’s a big nothingburger twisted to push the narrative that “Putin is close to surrendering!” by 6th columnist commentators and ‘analysts’.
This was followed by the biggest bombshell of all, covered in major MSM outlets, which really drilled down in cementing the fabricated narrative:
It all sounds oh-so authentic splashed across those big flashy pages, with their bold, peremptory majuscules. “It must be true!” the sheep hymn in unison.
But from whence did this ‘bombshell’ originate? From none other than Ukraine’s most cartoonishly disgraced propagandist, the jester Dmitry Gordon:
He’s literally the only ‘commentator’ in Ukraine taken less seriously by Ukrainians than even “Lucy” Arestovich.
From the DailyMail article sourced above:
Leading Ukrainian TV journalist Dmitry Gordon said he had received details of the package from 'our intelligence sources', while Russian Telegram channel Gosdumskaya - which claims insider sources in Moscow - separately reported a similar set of Putin demands.
Gordon is known for his endless lies, including that Russia would collapse this year, that Crimea would have been captured by this summer, and endless other buckets of slop no one takes seriously. His latest should be regarded with the same level of credibility.
If you read the bullet-points of the deal, you’ll see how patently absurd it is.
Now again we see Orban coming to Moscow for the specific purpose of a ‘peace mission’. It is Orban pushing the initiative, not Russia. But what is Putin supposed to do, decline Orban’s visit? Of course, Putin has to keep up appearances to project the image that Russia seeks peace. In reality, Russia’s terms have not changed even in the slightest—and you can see proof of this in the various recent statements by Lavrov, Peskov, Zakharova, etc., who all continue to maintain that Russia’s fundamental terms must be met.
Legitimny channel underscored this with their received intelligence:
#hearings
Our source reports that Orban held extensive negotiations with Putin, where the Ukrainian crisis took no more than 5% of the time, the rest of the time discussed economic and financial issues.
There will be no peace in Ukraine until the onset of the Armed Forces and elections in the United States take place.
But it is encouraging that many are aware that now the world is much closer than in 2022-23, as players began to pay more attention to business arrangements, which are an important factor that the world is near.
That all being said, we must acknowledge that there has been at least some contradictory messaging from Russia. The most consequential was when Putin stated, just days before the Swiss summit last month, that Russia would call an immediate ‘ceasefire’ for the purposes of negotiations if Ukraine should pull out all of its troops from the four new Russian territories of Kherson, Zaporozhye, DPR, and LPR as well as pledge to not join NATO. Keep in mind, this appears to mean a temporary ceasefire for the purpose of further negotiations with the above conditions meant as the minimum initial gesture Ukraine would be required to make.
From the June 14th statement:
But the problem is, just two weeks later, Lavrov issued the following statement:
We said: we will always be ready for peace negotiations, but during the negotiations we will not stop the special military operation. We have already had this experience; we have been deceived, as happened in April 2022. - said Lavrov.
So, in being honest, we must admit that there’s clearly a conflict in the messaging along this line. Putin was very clear and adamant in stating a ceasefire would be declared—although, if you listen to his speech, it appears what he’s describing is a temporary ceasefire for the purposes of facilitating the very conditional withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories—so they are not dishonorably attacked while in the process of withdrawing.
Also, it should be mentioned—in my opinion, at least—that Putin issued the proposal to again maintain the ostensible peace gestures, while in actuality making demands he knew are not possible for Kiev to fulfill. For instance, if you listen closely, he very precisely states that Ukraine must withdraw from the full administrative boundaries of the stated regions as they were drawn before the war. What does that mean? Most importantly, that Ukraine has to totally give up the city of Kherson and all outlying regions.
Russia currently occupies the majority of Kherson Oblast, but Ukraine still squats on the city itself:
The same goes for Zaporozhye Oblast, the AFU would have to vacate the huge capital city of Zaporozhye itself:
This is a major city of nearly 1 million population which ranks as Ukraine’s seventh most populous, after Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Dnipro, Donetsk, and Lvov. It has almost double the population of Sevastopol, for crying out loud. What are the chances, do you figure, that Ukraine’s power structure would ever allow the total abandoning of such a city?
Now with that in mind, re-evaluate Putin’s proposal.
Even ISW’s latest report says Putin is not actually serious about any negotiations:
Also, recall what Putin said here, which sort of undermines his own previous record:
He essentially states that he’s not interested in any ‘temporary’ ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to rearm, akin to the Minsk protocols and such. We now know he would only be open for a major, total paradigm-shifting end to the war that would necessarily include the reformulation of the entire European security architecture.
And in fact, in his new meeting with Orban, he again plainly cited this:
Thus, the way I’m understanding his earlier statement is that should Ukraine accede to demands in removing all military forces from the four regions, Russia would abide by a temporary ceasefire as an act of honor to allow the assets to withdraw. Then, Putin would likely evaluate how amenable Ukraine was to true negotiations of the other major conditions before deciding whether to recommence hostilities. But this is only my interpretation of the slightly contradictory portion of that matter.
The other important matter to remember is that Chief of Staff of the neo-Nazi Azov brigade, Bogdan Krotevich, just threatened Zelensky for even remotely considering any ‘peace’ options.
The chief of staff of "Azov" threatens those who advocate for stopping the war at the front line
He wrote on X/Twitter:
No peace without victory. Victory means not a single Russian soldier on Ukrainian territory. We will not leave this war to our descendants, and you won't either, because if you try, it will be bad for you and for them. If this is a "test," don't even think about it. I wrote this calmly.
It would be better to call the brigade commanders for a meeting, give Azov Western weapons, create divisions, and place battle-hardened brigade commanders like Radis in charge. Disband the Operational Tactical Units and reduce the number of generals in the troops—that's your plan for peace through victory.
Krotevych did not specify what "test" he was referring to, but judging by the context, he meant a statement by a political analyst close to Zelensky's office, Fesenko, who said that the war could be stopped and the territories "returned later."
Ukrainian media already reported that tensions had escalated in Ukraine between the authorities and pro-Western activists, as well as between the military leadership and soldiers from the high-profile units of the Armed Forces and the National Guard, created based on nationalist organizations.
As we had written about long ago, Zelensky is held at the point of a sword when it comes to prosecuting the remainder of the conflict. Thus, he’s effectively trapped between rock and hard place given that pressures to capitulate will at one point become unbearable, while the opposing pressure—at the pain of death—to continue on will squeeze him in.
And then there’s this final analysis which gets to the root of things, and jibes with the slant of my thesis above. In essence, it propounds the idea that Putin is playing spoiler with all the peace affectations in order to paint Zelensky as a warmonger hellbent on continuing the conflict:
Kremlin playing diplomatic party to discredit Ukraine
Visits of Orban (Putin's chief friend in Europe) should whiten the reputation of the Russian leader and show him « as a peacemaker », who has enough responsibility to complete the bloody war.
Ukraine, which has abandoned the conditions of the Hungarian leader, now looks almost the only initiator of the continuation of hostilities. The leaders of Turkey, India, and China have long been in solidarity with the position of the Russian Federation. And Orban's perfomance gave them another argument in favor of supporting Putin.
If the presidential chair for the Democrats is maintained, Russia may begin a new large phase of the war, starting from Kiev’s refusal to go to peace talks.
In the event of the arrival of Trump, we will find a probable contract that will suit everyone except Ukraine.
Once again, the Zelensky team demonstrates aerobatics in diplomacy, helping the enemies of Ukraine to advance for their geopolitical goals…
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The one line above gives us a glimpse of a potential resolution to the conflict:
In the event of the arrival of Trump, we will find a probable contract that will suit everyone except Ukraine.
It is possible that it will go down as follows:
Trump takes office and uses his promised battering ram of threats against NATO to bend the alliance to his will—by threatening to defund them, or entirely withdraw the U.S., which would effectively destroy it.
Using this, he could potentially force Europe into accepting this new European security architecture that Putin has been looking for, which would be a new sort of Westphalian system of guarantees. Along what lines would the Ukrainian conflict itself be resolved?
Firstly, Putin would push the issue—as he has done—that Zelensky is illegitimate and no guarantee can be signed with him. This will force power struggles within Ukraine, with U.S. pressures exacerbating them, that would result in the ouster of Zelensky, who would be replaced by someone more amenable to both Putin and Trump. This would of course be aided by the earlier-mentioned nationalist groups who would be coming to eliminate Zelensky anyway. Some of the more difficult territorial issues would likely be resolved via a deferment as had already been discussed at times in the past; i.e. Ukraine can legally lay claim to certain things after a given time period of 15-20 years, and things of that nature.
If any of the above runs into roadblocks then the grind will continue until Ukraine loses more and more.
The converse to this is the argument that Russia cannot leave Ukraine to be under any circumstances, and must continue at the least until the capture of Kharkov, Odessa, or even Kiev and the entire state. This is still a possibility, as I said, particularly given any of the above conditions were to collapse. However, if all the pieces of diplomacy fall into place by next year, with all the right leaders successfully elected and taking charge, then the pressure for diplomacy could be too great for Putin to turn down, particularly if the deal is mostly favorable to Russia as in the case of the example above.
Recall that one of Russia’s stated conditions for any peace is also the lifting of all sanctions. Imagine all 20,000+ sanctions being lifted from the most heavily sanctioned country on earth. There are two possibilities:
The Russian economy explodes into unimaginably utopian conditions, shooting to #3 in the world within a few years
Likely the more probable: the global cabal with a deep ancestral hatred for Russia never allows such a thing, and as such any treaty on these terms would be unrealistic to begin with
How do you think it will happen? Here’s Europe’s take:
And an interesting poll revealing the sentiment of the Ukrainians themselves—that the majority would now prefer to lose land but retain sovereignty rather than the reverse:
Very bad numbers for propaganda, which is trying to convince everyone of the need to fight to the end, despite the casualties and losses.
45% of Ukrainians agree to the loss of territories occupied by the Russian Federation in exchange for the “freedom of choice” to join NATO and the EU, maintaining the army and independence, a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations
▪️26% would prefer to return the occupied territory, but agree to demilitarization, neutral status and the inability to join the EU and NATO.
▪️29% of respondents do not know what is best.
The AFU continues to experience massive problems on the front, with units increasingly openly screeching via public forums about how everything is collapsing around them.
Some examples from the past day or two.
There’s been a lot of talk about this Ukrainian unit, which has been confirmed as fully authentic by pro-UA commentators:
"Friends please spread the word. We now have a big problem with 206 battalion. It is being ground into powder. A lot of 200 and 300. Cool fighters are thrown as meat..."
Another Ukrainian soldier expresses his glum fatalism:
Jihad Julian comments on the recent Toretsk breakthroughs and continued Vovchansk advances by the Russian forces:
In a new ridiculed video Zelensky claims Ukraine has over a dozen brigades in reserves, but…they have no weapons:
That’s like the Wehrmacht in 1945 saying “we have the desire to win but…”.
He himself notes the brigades are understaffed. Secondly, recent leaks state much of the newly generated “reserves” are being called “ghost brigades” or ghost units, given that they’re only ‘brigades’ on paper, and are in fact just a ragtag hodgepodge of broken companies, or battalion or two.
German MEP from the AfD party, Maximilian Krah, says it best here:
MEP Maximilian Kra:
What do I even expect? More Ukrainian losses, no matter how cynical it may sound. But we are at war. And the casualties are so great that we are approaching the threshold of 30% of the population capable of military service. There is an international rule that if you lose 30% of the population capable of military service, the war ends. For two reasons.
Firstly, the population no longer believes in victory, but wants to save lives. Politicians say that if we sacrifice even more young people now, the survival of our state will be at risk because the population is running out. My guess is that Ukraine will face conscription problems this year, and therefore domestic approval for the war will drop. Secondly, the military superiority of the Russians is so great that even you understand that there is no chance of victory. In this regard, pressure is increasing to somehow reach an agreement within Ukraine.
On the other hand, the West, based on its logic, cannot agree to peace, because this will be a defeat for it. Therefore, they will try to continue the war at least until the American presidential elections. But once this American presidential election is over, there will be a window for peace negotiations.
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The other major focus continues to fall onto Ukraine’s electrical grid, with a lot of discussions now occurring in Ukraine itself.
Heres’ Ukrainian journalist and ‘security expert’ Maria Avdeeva reporting from her Kharkov flat:
Her comments section is filled with other anecdotal corroborations:
More news:
And terrible news from Krivoy Rog:
Press release from ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog today. Finally, it seems that the degradation of the power grid has reached a critical level. They say they cannot operate at current capacity if they are mandated to import 80% of their electricity, due to power costs.
One report from Legitimny states that if destruction of the power grid continues, Ukraine will be placed into permanent 8-12-hour-per-day blackout for the next several years:
Our source reports that if the war continues until the spring of 2025, then problems in the Ukrainian energy sector will be solved only in the next ten years and subject to billions of investments, and Ukrainians will have to live in a terrible deficit of e / e for 2024.25.26 years with constant blackouts of 8-12 hours a day.
Also, the source, based on expert forecasts, indicates that in the next 3 years the price of e / e for the population of Ukraine will rise in price by 300-400%.
Now the price is 4.32 UAH per 1 kW, and by 2026 it will rise to 15 hryvnia per 1 kW / h.
The next 3 years in the country will be « black winter », and the consequences for housing and communal services infrastructure can be disastrous.
Even Rob Lee is forced to cover the impending catastrophe:
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Some sundry bits and bites:
A U.S. Marine general was found “dead”:
Interestingly, according to reports he was just in Ukraine. Several days ago were reports of U.S. flights out of Poland—the typical ones that carry Western mercenaries out after Russian strikes. Coincidence?
Now his death is being hushed up:
When asked, NCIS did not disclose the manner of Mullen's death.
There has been a spate of Russian long range strikes, including ones on deployment points—several of them on Odessa recently, for instance. There’s good chance this general was visited by Dr. Ken Zhal for his final checkup.
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If things weren’t bad enough for the U.S., another defense plant blew up, which reportedly is in the business of Javelin production, amongst other rockets:
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Commander of the Ukrainian 116th Brigade perished in the Kupyansk direction:
And another well-known AFU officer has become quite dejected:
I’ll leave you with this poignant last statement from Russian analyst Older Eddy:
We will say one thing. The more power and its dogs drive the Ukrainian people to fight, the larger the collapse will be. At some point, the front will simply sprinkle, as 80% of the army will consist of those who do not want to fight, or tired, or disappointed.
It's like building a house, but making concrete for walls and foundations according to the formula of 12 bags of sand for 1 bag of cement. For some time it will stand idle, and after that « will begin to fall asleep », and if there is a minimum « earthquake », it will simply collapse. So in the situation with the Zemobilization and the Armed Forces.
This is a time bomb.
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Who are the retards that actually believed the lie that Putin was going to "share Crimea?" Do these people know ANYTHING about Putin and Russia, and have they paid ANY attention to the history of Ukraine over the last ten years? 🙄
Regarding Orban, he is one of the few europeans left that has a functioning brain. The rest of them are complete morons that still think Europe is the center of the world, and that they have any power to affect anything. They are nothing more than vassal states, controlled and dominated by the GAE.
And who else would Orban talk to to achieve peace but Putin? There is no one else to discuss anything of significance with; certainly not Zelensky, who has no legitimacy whatsoever.
Really, the stupidity of the europeans is mind-blowing. They are living in some sort of little fantasy land over there or something. Orban might be the only sane european leader on that continent.
I've heard that Dr. Ken Zhal is very effective at what he does - 'surgical' is a word that's often used.
However, Dr. Ken apparently is also very elusive & difficult to track, has a habit of turning up unannounced at various locations taking everyone by complete surprise, and can have a highly explosive temperament.