SITREP 6/5/25: Another PR Stunt Dies Down as Russia Tightens Vise on Sumy

In response to the last week of Ukrainian provocations Putin released a long statement accusing Ukraine of slipping into terrorism and sabotaging the peace talks:

Putin made a number of statements:

– Ukraine is suffering huge losses and is retreating along the entire front line, so it is trying to intimidate Russia with terrorist attacks

– The Kiev regime, already illegitimate, is degenerating into a terrorist organization, and its sponsors are becoming accomplices of terrorists

– The terrorist attack on the train in the Bryansk region is a targeted attack on civilians

– The Kyiv regime “does not need peace at all”, since it would mean a loss of power for them

– A lull in military action would be used by Kyiv for forced mobilization, pumping up weapons, and preparing terrorist attacks.

Obviously it’s a rather perfunctorily lukewarm address given the amount of things that have occurred in just the last few days alone, but the one important takeaway is Putin seems to have hardened in his stance that it would be pointless to allow Ukraine any long ceasefire respites.

Those expecting a furious Russian response—i.e. carpet bombing Kiev with Oreshniks, and the like—were bound to be disappointed in Russia’s reaction. And even more so by the statements of certain Russian officials, in this case from the Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, who claimed that not a single Russian plane was ‘destroyed’ in Ukraine’s long-planned drone raid:

https://www.pnp.ru/politics/ryabkov-zayavil-chto-povrezhdennye-pri-terakte-vsu-samolety-vosstanovyat.html

The planes damaged during the terrorist attack of the Kiev regime on June 1 will be restored. This was stated in an interview with TASS by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher and only serves to discredit Russian authorities, given that we’ve seen fresh satellite photos of planes that clearly appear beyond repair. That being said, so many fake AI-generated versions were interspersed as to legitimately raise questions as to ‘how many’ Russian planes were really lost.

Even top Ukrainian accounts were fed up with the AI fakery damaging Ukraine’s own credibility:

In particular, note the weird missile/plane hybrid in the top right corner.

And I’ve seen several others besides the one above, not to mention proof some of the planes had no engines and thus were salvage airframes.

FighterBomber noted:

As I said earlier, the number of destroyed planes is in the single digits. Not in the dozens.

By the will of fate, the overwhelming majority of planes attacked by the hohols were non-flying aircraft from the "iron row".

Unfortunately, in the burgeoning AI era it’s difficult to trust anything, particularly from an enemy that is losing and therefore has incomparably more incentive to saturate the information space with ‘simulated victories’.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-hit-fewer-russian-planes-than-it-estimated-us-officials-say-2025-06-04/

As for Russia’s response, one Russian analyst worded it best: “Zelensky is in desperate need of a loud tragedy.” Obviously, all such attacks are designed to goad Russia into something which can be sold as an ‘unprecedented massacre’, or the like.

That being said, tonight Russian Tu-95s and Kalibr-launching ships staged a new attack which could be amongst Russia’s ‘responses’.

Early summation:

Russias Retaliation Strike is composed of the following:

5x TU-95
2x TU-160
4x Ships
400~ OWA-UAVS

Likely strike payload from these platforms:

400~ OWA-UAV
24x Kalibr missiles
64~ Kh-101 missiles

Russia is likely targeting energy infrastructure again with a fire occuring near Kyiv CHP-5 one of the city’s key combined heat and power plants, which supplies both electricity and heating to large parts of the capital. Ukraine is also striking Russia tonight with OWA-UAVS attacking Russian Airfields at Saratov, Engels, Ryazan and Iskander-M ballistic missiles storage in Bryansk airfield and damaging up to 3x TELS of the 26th Russian Missile Brigade. Ukraine Neptune Missiles launched at Sevastopol and OWA-UAVs towards Crimea.

Advances continue on the front, though they have slowed slightly over the past couple days:

On the Zaporozhye front near Gulaipole, Russian forces awakened a new direction from long quiescence. Ukraine’s DeepState writes about the sudden assault on Malinovka:

The movement here is clear—to begin the envelopment of the long-held fortress of Gulaipole.

Nearby near the Velyka Novosilka line, Russian forces again resumed the offensive and captured Fedorovka as a last stop before Komar:

Active military operations in the area of ​​Velikaya Novosyolka.

Attack of the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Fyodorovka. The assault group clears out the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the residential area.

The advance of the Russian Armed Forces along the western bank of the Mokrye Yaly River is more than 2 km.

47.953795,36.755597

In the Konstantinovka direction the twin villages of Dyliivka are being stormed:

One of the largest advances over the past few days has been on the Lyman front. There Russian forces recently captured Ridkodub and are already pushing west of it, as well as a new parallel salient directly to the south:

North of there, Russian forces fully captured Kindrashivka on the northern flank of Kupyansk:

After intense fighting, the soldiers of the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army of the Moscow Military District raised the Russian flag over the liberated village

And finally, the largest advances once again came in the Sumy direction. In the last update only two days ago, Russian forces had just reached the northern outskirts of Yablonovka, now they have fully captured the village:

As can be seen, they have also taken a stretch of territory south of both Andriivka and Oleksiivka, continuing down toward Pysarivka.

Though it was captured earlier, Vodolahy—circled in white above—was taken by the 1443rd Motor Rifle Regiment of the Russian forces; a small description of their feat:

Battalion commander with the call sign 'Mazhor' tells how Russian servicemen seized Vodolagi in Sumy region:

'The offensive was successful because the unit came in from three directions, using bypass and envelopment tactics. We have fully seized the settlement in three–four days'.

The Sumy region’s defenses are now crumbling with a lot of “whispers” suggesting the entire region may collapse and be lost. One commentator named Masno who lives anonymously in Sumy reports:

From an officer of the Ukrainian military in Sumy, his words, not mine... "Sumy is fucked, it will be lost to Russia". He spoke about more or less most of the Sumy Oblast.

Meanwhile, a woman from Sumy posted this:

Note the “Amounts” at the bottom is an AI mistranslation of Sumy.

This followed Mariana Bezugla posting:

Last items of note:

https://www.politico.eu/article/missiles-ukraine-drone-attacks-bombers-russia-war-invasion-peace-talks-conflict/

Politico glazes Ukraine’s ‘Operation Spiderweb’ but ultimately concludes it will have little real effect on the war:

Sad to say, but while the strike does complicate where Russia should base its strategic bombers and how to protect them, the military trend is still in the Kremlin’s favor, with or without harsher economic sanctions. And as Russia ramps up its production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war is getting increasingly difficult for Ukraine.

They go on to write:

Currently, the country is believed to have eight Patriot missile batteries, yet only half a dozen are thought to be functioning at any one time… The Patriots are about the only weapon Ukraine has to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, but it often takes a pair of Patriot interceptors to knock out an incoming missile.

Meanwhile, according to Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia plans to produce approximately 3,000 long-range missiles in 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 560 Kh-101 missiles. And though exactly how many Patriot missiles Ukraine has on hand is a closely guarded secret, most military observers suspect it’s less than 200.

Essentially, the math just isn’t in Ukraine’s favor.

Ukrainian analyst Tatarigami agrees:

While this operation is unlikely to immediately diminish the frequency of missile strikes against Ukraine, as Russia typically employs 7 to 11 bombers per salvo, it does have longer-term implications. As a result, the loss of even a portion of these asset especially ones that are difficult or almost impossible to replace reduces Russia’s capacity for long-range force projection and its overall geostrategic flexibility. In sum, this was a significant and likely highly successful operation for Ukraine. While it may not bring a quick reduction in the aerial threat to Ukrainian cities per se, it does degrade a critical segment of Russia’s force projection capabilities. At the end it might influence a potential agreement to de-escalate and restrict long-range strikes in the future.

In short: it has no real effect on Ukraine, but whittles down Russia’s global ‘force projection’. The more accurate translation of that is to say Ukraine is merely fighting the battle of weakening Russia in advance of a future Russia-NATO war, while using itself as sacrificial lamb to do so.

In light of that, the latest ISW report claims:

The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare Russian society and the Russian defense industry base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and potential future war with NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 allowing the Russian government to revoke the rights of shareholders of defense industrial enterprises in the event that the enterprise fails to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.[4] The decree enables the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of the enterprise in order to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government. The decree applies to civilian aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and government subcontractors.

Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia's economy and DIB should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement to its war in Ukraine.[5]

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Ukraine announced another training center was struck in Poltava, this time claiming there were only ‘wounded’:

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Two new Abrams tanks and a Leopard were recovered by Russian forces in Sumy and Kursk:

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A military presentation in Kiev claims that Russia intends to occupy everything up to the Dnieper by 2026:

Russia Aims to Liberate All Territory East of the Dnepr and Cut Off Ukraine from the Black Sea

— Top Kiev Official Warns Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of Zelensky’s Office, has said that Russia plans to take full control of all the territory east of the Dnepr River in 2026. The operation is also expected to include the strategic regions of Odessa and Nikolaev, which would eliminate Ukraine’s remaining access to the Black Sea.

Note the intelligence claim that Russia intends to storm the Dnieper and capture Kherson by end of 2025. Do they know something we don’t?

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Earlier in the day Russian glide-bombs smashed the administrative building in Kherson city where a Ukrainian military presence was recorded:

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In light of all the provocations on the Baltic Sea, the Russian Baltic Fleet staged exercises meant to ‘repel terrorist seizure of Russian ships’—we can guess what that refers to:

Baltic Fleet undergoes planned exercises to rescue a ship captured by terrorists.

The Baltic Fleet's counter-sabotage detachments and special operations forces units practised liberation of a ship captured by terrorists.

According to the scenario, a civilian ship, which was a rescue tug of the Baltic Fleet, was captured by a group of armed men threatening to kill hostages if they failed to comply.

The Baltic Fleet Command decided to send anti-sabotage and patrol vessels as well as high-speed boats with special forces personnel of the Baltic Fleet to the area of the incident.

In order to support the actions of the special military forces, naval helicopters with assault detachments on board were involved. During this episode of the exercise, various options were practised to isolate the captured ship. They also trained to evacuate the wounded and provide them with medical assistance.

Special operations forces units landed from the sea and air on the captured ship, blocked and neutralised the mock terrorists. The ship's crew was successfully released.

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Russian troops demonstrate a fiber-optic drone with a record 50km range on a massive cylinder:

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A Russian correspondent rides one of Russia’s new UGV ground drones:

A Zvezda correspondent took a ride on a ground drone — the military development is being tested at one of the Moscow region testing grounds. After all the modifications, the robot is planned to be sent to the SVO zone. It can be used to deliver ammunition and evacuate soldiers - seven people can fit on top at once, said Vladislav Kustov. The drone's load capacity is at least 500 kilograms.

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An unnamed Russian unit takes off for a lightning moto-assault, demonstrating the new face of war:

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A timely cartoon about Ukraine’s gnawing—and hilariously hopeless—obsession with the Crimean bridge:

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