SITREP 6/26/24: Things Heat Up With Reports of North Korean Troops to Donbass

We now have video evidence that beyond a shadow of a doubt proves cluster munitions were deployed against the civilian beach in Crimea:

Of course, to be fair, we must say we don’t have definitive proof whether the missile targeted the beachgoers specifically or was shot down en route to a military target, causing it to release its submunitions. Well, I said there’s no definitive proof, per se—but there is some proof.

Firstly, I agree with the sentiment of a pro-UA account which noted that the dispersion of the submunitions over the water appears to be much larger and more irregular than normal, which would account for the missile having been shot down at a high altitude, and losing its submunitions in an ‘uncontrolled’ way. So score one point for the ‘shoot down’ angle.

However, the vast majority of commentators on the issue have no clue which beach was even hit. I’ve uncovered that it is reportedly Uchkuivka, just south of Belbek Airbase—which most people have been assuming was “the target” of the alleged ATACMS strike:

The problem is, if you draw a straight line from probable Ukrainian launch sites, you find that it’s fairly impossible for the ATACMS to have flown OVER Uchkuivka beach en route to Belbek. Why? Simple: because the beach is south of the air base and the direct lines of the ATACMS missile would have gone as follows:

To use a zoomed in map again, we can see those lines from Ukrainian territory could not possibly have overflown the beach (circled in red below; airbase boxed in red):

It is possible the missile may have been going elsewhere than Belbek, but that base has been the operative target according to all reports from both sides thus far. This leads me to conclude that, according to the evidence we do have, both theories are true:

1. The missile was likely shot down prematurely by AD due to the irregular submunition patterning

2. The missile may have been targeting the beach for an even bigger massacre, but the AD shot it down just a hair early, which saved many lives and kept the casualties low

3. Last possibility is that EW jammed it off its course

Of course, it’s possible it wasn’t shot down but then it would also bring into question why the submunitions mostly dropped over the water, with only a few hitting the actual beach. The only logical explanation for that would be that Ukraine was merely attempting to do a terror provocation in the purest sense of the word: to create terror without necessarily inflicting a lot of casualties that could incur unneeded blowback, both in the Russian retaliatory variety and international sentiment shifting against Ukraine. Merely giving the beachgoers a bad ‘scare’ could do the trick.

And for anyone wondering whether the West is capable of such inhumanity, we have many responses from prominent Western figures pointing to the affirmative in this case:

Ukrainian presidential advisor Mikhail Podolyak dropped this viciously cruel gem:

Sociopathic EU apparatchik Gunther Fehlinger added his toxic two cents about the sparking of jihadist attacks in Dagestan:

The Pentagon brazenly dismissed concerns about civilian casualties in Crimea:

And as per usual, the goal of the narrative becomes clear: an information war along the precise scheme I described last time, to turn Russian society against Putin, which is repeatedly signaled by Western press, in this case a Dutch paper:

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But to get back to the beach attack for one last moment, there is a slight inexplicable wrinkle to the story. Here is a video showing Russian investigators uncovering what is claimed to be some of the unexploded cluster munitions from the beach floor:

You’ll note that at the 0:50 second mark, the munition is shown as follows:

This is what ATACMS munitions look like in real life:

They have that very distinctive shape, with the irregular ridges, due to the fact that upon release, the ridges catch the air and cause the munition to spin violently. The spinning motion is what arms the cluster bomblet via an internal accelerometer. The munition uncovered on the beach floor does not immediately strike me as resembling this, though it’s difficult to be certain as it seems it could be deformed in some way.

I suppose if you compare the broken one from above with the beach one, it could look something like it:

Either that or it wasn’t ATACMS at all, but I’m not sure what else it could be that can reach such a distance and drop cluster munitions. Of course the recovered munition from the sea could have been simply something else from a previous strike, or long ago artifact and may not even be connected to the new attack.

Related to the above issue of strikes, allow me to cover another hot topic—Ukraine’s claimed destruction of a Russian space comms radio complex in Crimea the other night:

To put the matter to bed, new satellite imagery confirms that the fields around the complex did burn—suggesting a shoot down of missiles/drones which crashed off-target—but nothing important was actually hit:

This was confirmed by experts with even higher acuity satellite photos:

On the bottom photo you can see the two dish complexes of eight dishes each, unharmed, with the burned field far to the left of them.

On one hand the fact that Ukraine still managed to penetrate the area is worrisome, but depending who you ask, this complex was for the most part abandoned and defunct, which if true, would mean it would not exactly be an air defense priority.

The next pressing topic is the sudden announcement that North Korea reportedly intends to send troops to Ukraine:

From the Kyiv Post:

In response to that Pyongyang announced early this week that it will be sending troops in the form of a military engineering unit to support Russian forces on the ground in the Donetsk region. The troops are expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as next month.

It seems the source of this news is a South Korean news station called TV Chosun, according to Reuters:

The report was serious enough for the Pentagon to nervously comment on:

The important takeaway is that this appears the latest in a tit-for-tat move of Russia’s escalatory procedures against the U.S. You see, just yesterday the big headline was that Biden intends to allow U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine:

Ostensibly, of course, this is initially under the premise of specialists to help repair American equipment in Ukraine without having to send it over the border. But just like North Korea is now being accused of planning, the U.S. could likely use the new authorization as cover to incrementally move actual combat forces into the country.

One can only assume that this is Russia and its bloc’s message to the West, that for every escalation in Ukraine, there will be a reciprocal one dealt back.

What’s most interesting, however, is that Russia and Iran announced the upcoming signing of a new ‘comprehensive’ treaty of some kind:

It appears Russia is building a tighter pact with closer military cooperation in preparation for potential escalations. Understandably, most are thinking of all the current moves as precursors to WWIII—and it may very well be the case. But with the West’s sinking political situations I would not bet on it at the moment. There are huge amounts of opposition to any troops on the ground. Just earlier David Cameron was pranked by the infamous Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus, wherein he admitted that putting troops in Ukraine is highly problematic because they would become targets for Russian missiles:

In fact, as Russia builds up its alliances, the West continues to complain about the inadequate state of its own armed forces:

Rumormill Interlude

Some have noted that Putin has suddenly and ‘mysteriously’ visited Patriarch Kirill, as if to get a blessing before a difficult decision of some kind:

Which was followed by the equally mysterious ‘special squadron’ direct flight from Russia to D.C., which is the first time this plane has flown to the U.S. since June 26, 2023:

June 26 was just two days after Prigozhin’s rebellion and ‘Justice March’ on Moscow, although that previous special squadron flight was reportedly attributed to retrieving diplomats which were expelled by the U.S.

Also, it should be noted just yesterday the U.S. and NATO countries conducted a nuclear exercise in the Norwegian Sea, with EAM (Emergency Action Messages) sent over HFGCS (High Frequency Global Communication System):

And it was noted by experts that the emergency nuclear signals being broadcast were of a rare 102+ character variety—with “normal” ones being only a few characters long due to the low data bandwidth of the special VLF waves used to penetrate the ocean in order to send nuclear authorizations to ballistic missile subs deep underwater. The understanding is that the longer codes are associated with higher Defcon risks or emergency situations, with radio observers potentially expecting a ‘Skymaster’ code to be sent, which reportedly constitutes a top secret elevated situation, though it’s unclear if it was broadcast or not.

For anyone interested, read this thread for an explanation for laymen.

This could all be nothing, and most likely is, but given the present circumstances, and undeniable feeling of escalation, it certainly lends a slightly eerie note to proceedings.

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In accordance with the above, Tsargrad featured military analyst, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov, who claims that NATO is preparing a mass decapitation attack on Russia:

https://tsargrad.tv/news/po-rossii-udarjat-bolee-600-samoljotov-i-poltory-tysjachi-raket-proschitan-plan-nato-kak-i-kogda-nachnjotsja-tretja-mirovaja_1019113

At the beginning of the invasion, about 600-700 aircraft and at least one and a half thousand Tomahawk missiles will be involved, which are planned to suppress Russian air defenses. After the destruction of our front-line aviation and the achievement of air supremacy, favorable conditions will be created for the offensive of ground forces on the territory of Russia.

So, NATO only requires three days to wipe out Russia from the skies, huh? Where have we heard that before? Color me unimpressed. But do read the rest of the article for some other interesting insights.

Also:

Ex-Colonel of the SBU Starikov expects a “general battle” in the SMO zone in August-September According to him, this will lead to either escalation or de-escalation and could become “the basis for starting negotiations.”

One must certainly wonder at recent developments: the North Korean troops reports, Russian warships flexing outside of Miami, nuclear exercises galore, boots on ground, and other strange stories cropping up daily:

Not to mention FighterBomber now releasing a doubling down on his story that a Russian Mig-31 reportedly damaged a Global Hawk drone over the Black Sea yesterday:

Interesting times, huh?

On the front, Zelensky finally dismissed General Sodol, who was the top guy under Syrsky, in charge of the ‘Joint Operations Forces’:

This came after a top Azov commander accused Sodol of killing ‘far more Ukrainians than any Russian general has killed’, a fact even Western press weren’t reticent in reporting:

Interestingly, this comes amid rising tensions over the Pokrovsk direction, where Russian forces are starting to mount a critical breakthrough pressure. This has even spurred Zelensky to visit the Pokrovsk frontline and film another one of his jinxing videos in front of the Pokrovsk sign:

Some may recall Zelensky famously visited Bakhmut, Avdeevka, and other major towns shortly before their fall, which at this point should portend ill tidings. In fact, the town is now undergoing emergency evacuations of civilians by the AFU. However, the town itself will be safe for a while, the front is not quite close to it, but is heading toward that direction quickly, and Russia has already begun striking the city center with long range attacks due to AFU HQs being present there.

Russia continues dropping big bombs, in this case the ODAB-1500, which is the thermobaric vacuum bomb. Note that it appears to be using airburst mode, which means you won’t see as much damage to the building per se, as it’s not hitting the building directly, but rather creating vacuum-pressure damage in the surroundings, potentially “silently” killing everyone inside the building by bursting their organs:

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Ukrainian medic Olena Malok complains that “80% of our stormtroopers are sick and old people. HIV, tuberculosis, no one cares. They just throw them on buses and send them straight to the front.”

There’s even rumor Zelensky is considering setting a mobilization limit to 50-55 years old because they’ve found anyone over that age is essentially useless in combat situations, particularly assault.

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Well, that’s all for now—tune in next time for new developments.

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