SITREP 6/16/25: Slowly Abandoned, Ukraine Gets Squeezed by Russian Pressure

The Wall Street Journal decided to publish a howler that rivals some of ISW’s best:

https://www.wsj.com/world/where-russia-is-advancing-in-ukraine-and-what-it-hopes-to-gain-ad870176

Read the sub-heading: “Moscow’s offensive is designed to make leaders think [Russia is winning].”

It falls squarely in line with famous gems like this one:

According to WSJ, capturing record amounts of territory is not actually winning, but merely the illusion of doing so. WSJ admits that in May, Russia took more territory than any month since 2022:

Russian forces ate into more Ukrainian territory in May than in almost any month since the end of 2022, as the Kremlin presses a summer offensive to create the impression in the West that victory is within its grasp.

You see, Russian gains are merely creating the impression that victory is coming, not the manifest reality of it.

Interestingly, the article quotes a Ukrainian soldier who states not only that Russians have a manpower advantage of 2:1 in Sumy, but that Russia holds the drone advantage there as well. You’ll recall in one of our last updates the specific quote that Russian drones were far overshadowing Ukrainian ones in Sumy, particularly—now we have confirmation.

“The pattern is familiar: The enemy wants to stretch our forces thin across a long front, drain our resources and wear us down,” he said, adding that so far, troop numbers meant that positions were still defensible. “They’re setting the stage,” he said of the Russians. “The pressure will only increase as the summer goes on.”

As to the above, Rezident_UA channel notes:

⚡️⚡️⚡️ #Insider

MI-6 passed on new intelligence to the Presidential Office that Russia is preparing a million-strong army for a new campaign in Ukraine, which could begin in the fall. New brigades have been created and staffed for these purposes, there will be no main attack on the front line, according to British intelligence, the Russian army will press on 4-7 sections of the front in order to stretch the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and collapse the entire line of defense.

rezident_ua

The article concludes:

Other indicators began to surface which corroborate our recent reports of the potential thinness of Ukrainian lines:

"In the 3rd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one soldier holds a kilometer of the front" - Nazi leader Biletsky

▪️The commander of the 3rd Corps states that one brigade holds a 60 km front section, although the regulations stipulate a maximum of 15 km.

▪️At the same time, he believes that the existing forces are “sufficient to hold the front line.”

▪️He also notes that there is an ineffective distribution of people in the Ukrainian Armed Forces: people with education and experience end up in the “wrong places”, which is why “the infantry is getting worse”.

If that wasn’t enough, a Ukrainian battalion commander in the 72nd Brigade says that Russian forces outnumber his 10:1 on their section of front, which is one of the hottest, in the Pokrovsk direction:

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, there are 10 Russian fighters per 1 Ukrainian soldier — Ukrainian battalion commander

The battalion commander of the 72nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces complains about the lack of personnel.

"There are 10 Russians for every Ukrainian," he says.

According to him, despite the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian army is steadily advancing.

He also notes that Russian troops carry out rotations much more often than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Of course, he gives the rote response that Russians are being ground down—but then how is it possible they outnumber his men 10:1 when Ukraine provably started the war with far more men than Russia? Clearly, his men are being ground down even more.

Increasingly, all attention is being turned on Sumy where Ukrainian officials claim Russia is accumulating a larger and larger force.

Russia continues to build up its strike force near Sumy.

According to Petro Andryushchenko, former adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, at least ten new self-propelled guns, an air defense system, and more than forty trucks with personnel and ammunition were transferred through Mariupol over the weekend.

According to his assessment, this is the largest military movement during the entire conflict and unprecedented in intensity. The main flow is coming from Crimea and the Kherson region, and the direction is Sumy region, where active advancement of Russian troops has already been recorded, having come close to the regional center.

The full interview with Andryushchenko with Ukrainian Trukha channel is below, with highlights afterwards:

"❗️❗️Massive transfer of Russian military equipment to Sumy region, threat to Dnipropetrovsk region and beyond. What should you know about the current situation on the front line? Let's take a look.

Petro Andriushchenko, former advisor to the mayor of Mariupol and head of the Centre for the Study of Occupation, has announced the largest transfer of Russian military forces in the last six months. He outlined the details exclusively for Trukha⚡️Ukraine:

▪️In recent days, the main direction of the transfer of Russian equipment from Mariupol has been to Sumy region via Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don;

▪️Several large convoys have been recorded: more than 10 new self-propelled guns, 40+ trucks with combat equipment and manpower, tractors, and an air defence system. They were sent to the Kursk region. In fact, they were sent to the Sumy region;

▪️This is the largest transfer in the last six months and the first of its kind since the war began.

▪️Regarding the new self-propelled artillery units, it seems that Russia sees some potential in the Sumy region or wants to increase pressure through it.

▪️Certain movements in the Zaporizhzhia region are being reinforced.

▪️Russia is trying to resume offensive operations in the Huliaipole area. But it is receiving heavy blows from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, causing it to lose reserves before they can be deployed in assault operations;

▪️Last week, active redeployment to the north of the Donetsk region was observed. Through Mariupol. This week, no such activity was recorded.

Dmytro Snegirev, a military analyst, spoke exclusively to Trukha⚡️Ukraine about the Russian Federation's tactical objectives and the situation in the various areas:

▪️The Russian Federation's strategic objective in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions is to gain access to the firing range of barrel rocket artillery.

▪️Sumy direction. The tactical goal of the Russian Federation is to occupy the settlements of Yunakivka and Khotyn. This will allow them to keep the residential areas of Sumy under the fire control of barrel artillery. This will create chaos and panic;

▪️Kharkiv direction. The Russian Federation's tactics are almost the same. The goal is to achieve fire damage with barrel artillery;

▪️The Russian Federation will not be able to take Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. They do not have enough operational reserves there for such operations;

▪️Bakhmut direction. It will not be possible to take Chasiv Yar. This is evidenced by the fact that the FSB has been transferred there as a reserve. It is telling when they are used as assault troops;

▪️Zaporizhzhia direction. The distance is up to 40 km. But Russian FPV drones have already hit residential buildings twice. This is an alarming sign. Plus, there has been an intensification of hostilities and attempts to advance deeper into the region to a distance of fire damage above the regional centre;

▪️Kherson direction. A large-scale amphibious operation is impossible. The width of the Dnipro River is up to 1 km. The Russian Federation lacks watercraft and operational reserves, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have firepower superiority. There is no question of an assault on Kherson;

▪️Dnipropetrovsk direction. It is difficult there. But the Russian Federation has no access to administrative borders. This is a fake for pressure — to show the threat of scaling up combat operations at the expense of new regions. There is no operational encirclement.

The first video shows the advance of the Russians on the front line since the beginning of 2025."

It’s interesting he mentions that Russia has no chance to storm Kherson due to the width of the Dnieper. Here a new video from a Ukrainian man shows what the Kakhovka reservoir looks like now, two years after the dam was destroyed:

Lastly on the topic of Sumy, Ukrainska Pravda published a new, long and detailed piece on the Sumy direction and the troubles the AFU is facing. Given that it’s a Ukrainian source which pulls directly from frontline Ukrainian troops, it gives a rare glimpse into that critical front.

It begins by revealing there’s a kind of censorship going on in this direction, with Ukrainian journalists not allowed in the region, and military command no longer marking territory captured by Russia in the maps of their daily reports. This includes DeepState maps, the semi-official Ukrainian mapmaker tied to the Ukrainian MoD. This is essentially because DeepState sources their info directly from “official” MoD maps, and so when the Ukrainian MoD itself doesn’t update a direction, it reflects in DeepState’s reporting.

The Ukrainska Pravda article reveals the frustration of troops from the 425th Skala assault battalion deployed to Sumy:

First of all, because of the huge shortage of people in the reinforcement units, that is, those who had to stand on the defensive after the assaults of the 225th and 425th battalions.

One of our interlocutors replied to the clarifying question "Are you advancing on Tetkino?":

"We are advancing on the rake", meaning that we are going on the offensive again and again, not being able to hold the defense afterwards.

Another soldier states:

"The Russians have brought up elite paratroopers, and some of our units have refused to enter the positions to hold the flanks. And our battalion was wiped out during this month of assaults, so we are now more on the defensive," says UP one of the fighters who participated in the offensive in the direction of Tetkinoye.

Recall that Tetkino is where Ukraine claims to be having some “success” recently—apparently it’s coming at a major cost as the soldier admits his battalion was ‘wiped out’ there.

UP describes the two opposing views about the Sumy offensive:

Most of our interlocutors among the civilian residents of Sumy are of the same opinion: there is no big breakthrough of Russians in the Sumy region, and there is no heavy equipment in the captured villages that could reach Sumy, so do not exaggerate the risks. The city itself is not in any danger yet.

At the same time, almost all military personnel who hold the defense along the border and in the area of Yunakovka, as well as lead these units at the command level – paratroopers, border guards – are significantly less optimistic. They described the situation to us as "difficult", "critical", "chaos" and "super f* * k". They lack people, especially powerful FPV crews, fiber-optic drones, fortifications, prepared positions, early mining operations, and well-established interaction between units for effective defense.

UP answers how Russia managed to make such advances in Sumy; again Zelensky’s greedy overreach was responsible—he sent battalions to be ‘wiped out’ in more pointless assaults on Kursk region’s Tetkino, while Sumy got overran:

The next big revelation which flies in the face of a lot of Ukrainian propaganda was that Russian defenses in the region had greatly ‘surprised’ Ukrainians:

Ukraine did not use the time of the Kursk operation to strengthen its border in Sumy region.

"When we were sitting on the Russian positions, we were very surprised that they have trenches of 6-8 kilometers each, which stretch underground and all lead to the border, to the checkpoint. They have fortified their border very well. And now we are in Sumy region, and there is nothing here at all... you must hurry to do something for yourself. The other day, my guys were holding the defense in the dugouts, which they dug somewhere in 2014. It began to rain, and they were flooded up to their waists.

When there was Kursk, you could turn on your imagination and make an underground world in the Sumy region. But no one did anything. If we had stretched the nets over the roads earlier, the situation in the Kursk region could have developed differently, " the chief sergeant of one of the UAV units, who previously fought in the Kur region, and now operates in the Sumy region, is indignant in a conversation with the UP.

"There was definitely nothing concreted there. While it was possible to make full-length fortifications with equipment, no one did it, " confirms our interlocutor in the 17th brigade.

Interestingly, famous war correspondent Sladkov just visited precisely one of these underground ‘cities’ in the Sumy region. It belongs to the 83rd Air Assault paratrooper brigade fighting on the Yablonovka front, and it employs Vietcong-like ingenuity, trap doors and false tunnels:

The article stresses Russia’s objective of stretching Ukrainian forces as much as possible, not only across the entire front, but even on local fronts; for instance, in Sumy region attacking along multiple axes. The game we ourselves outlined here over two years ago remains: Russia will continue pouring on forces as Ukraine’s force shrivels until something breaks—the only question is which frontline it will be first. Ukraine is increasingly forced to juggle its dwindling reserves between various hotspots as the pace accelerates like water bursting through a moldering dam.

In Sumy region, Russian forces have been slowly enveloping and capturing Yunakovka, while also reaching Sadky to its eastern flank:

As of this writing some reports even claim Russian forces have fully taken Yunakovka, though it’s yet to be confirmed:

Southeast of there on the Donetsk-Kharkov-Lugansk tri-border, Russian forces are advancing past recently captured Ridkodub into Karpovka:

Just south of there on the Seversk front, they reportedly captured long-contested Gregorovka, which had changed hands many times in the distant past, slowly approaching the indomitable Seversk fortress:

They also advanced on the flanks just south of it, flattening the entire front there along the yellow lines above.

Russian Third Shock-Combined Arms-Army raise the flag in Grigorovka/Hryhorivka Syversk/Seversk sector.

On Russia Day, our soldiers liberated the village of Grigorovka, in the Seversk region. The courage and heroism of our soldiers allowed us to break the enemy's offensive in the shortest possible time. More to come, Happy Russia Day.

The satellite view of this settlement is a particular testament to the hellishness of the back-and-forth fighting here for the past two years plus—just glimpse that moon-cratered landscape:

In fact, this town is only a few hundred meters or so from where the disastrous May, 2022 Seversky Donets crossing took place, where the Russian 74th Brigade lost dozens of tanks and armored vehicles.

East of Pokrovsk, Russian forces captured Koptjeve, while improving positions elsewhere along this front:

Just south of Koptjeve, Myrne is being chewed through after the liberation of Malinovka, which also came over the past two days.

Liberating Ulyanovka (Russian name for Malinovka): A Tactical Assault by the 39th Guards Brigade

Troopers from the 39th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade successfully liberated the settlement of Ulyanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic. Facing strong enemy fortifications, our forces advanced gradually using motorcycles, buggies, and foot patrols, with fog providing essential cover from enemy drones. The assault involved attacking from multiple sides to clear fortified positions, resulting in the destruction of fleeing militants and the capture of others. In the village, troops uncovered NATO equipment, weapons caches, and Western supplies.

In fact, Russians are now seizing a second Malinovka closer to Gulaipole much farther west in Zaporozhye.

The town was ironically the site of a popular Soviet movie whose plot centers around the town ‘changing hands’ between Soviet and Ukrainian nationalist forces each day:

The film is about a Ukrainian village during the time of the Russian Civil War. With power alternating almost daily between Soviet and Ukrainian nationalist forces, the villagers of Malinovka are never sure who is in charge, so they modify their behaviour and dress accordingly.

The irony comes from the fact it has again changed hands multiple times in this war:

Russian troops have latched onto Malinovka. That same Malinovka, in the Gulyaipole area, where the "Wedding in Malinovka" film took place.

Malinovka was already occupied by Russian troops at the very beginning of the SMO, but was abandoned in the spring of 2022. More than 3 years later, we are returning.

West of Pokrovsk the strategic settlement of Udachne has finally been entered by Russian troops and is already almost half captured:

Southwest of there Russian forces completely captured Oleksiivka and then Zelenyi Kut right afterwards—this being just north of recently captured Bogatyr:

Russian armed forces have liberated the settlement of Alekseyevka in the direction of Dnepropetrovsk

Soldiers from the 14th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army hoisted flags in a populated area🚨

Nearby, Russian troops finally entered and captured Komar and even the adjoining settlement of Perebudova just north of it:

Marines of the 336th Brigade and infantry of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade occupied the village of Komar to the west of Otradnoye and Bogatyr, on the eastern bank of the Mokryye Yaly River. The large village was liberated quite quickly, in just four days.

There were many other small advances, but those were the main settlement captures of the past two days.

Ukrainian analyst Tatarigami frankly shares his worsening outlook:

Last few items:

Russian aircraft shelters are reportedly finally being built all over, particularly in Khalino airfield in Kursk and several Crimean airfields:

Satellite image of protective hangars for aircraft at the Saki airbase in Crimea, as well as 5 Orion UAVs , apparently used to counter Ukrainian UAVs in the Black Sea.

Recently, photos of these hangars appeared close up.

Captured from the ground:

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Western officials are fear-mongering their citizens that if they don’t give up more of their tax dollars to the military industrial complex, they will soon have to learn to speak Russian:

🤡During a meeting of the Defence Committee in the British Parliament, the Chief of the Defence Staff of Great Britain, Admiral Tony Radakin, was asked whether NATO members would really have to learn Russian, as the new Secretary General of the alliance, Mark Rutte, had previously stated.

Recall that Rutte had stated that if NATO countries did not start spending at least 5% of their GDP on defence, they would have to learn Russian, hinting at the threat from Russia.

To this, Radakin responded with a smile in Russian: "I really want to say: “nyet", causing smiles from the participants of the meeting.

It follows in concert with a new propaganda drive in the British press:

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Several new exchanges of bodies took place, with the disparity getting mind-warpingly worse and worse for Ukraine:

06/16/25 Exchange of the Dead On June 16, another exchange of bodies of fallen servicemen took place in the SVO zone between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine received the bodies of 1,248 fallen servicemen, Russia - 51. Graph of the exchange of bodies of the deceased for the years 23-25.

Blue: Ukrainian bodies returned by Russia.
Red: Russian bodies returned by Ukraine.

Russia now says it has thousands more clogging up the morgues it is seeking to return.

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Putin says unlike Russia and the US, Europe is defenseless against ballistic missiles, and European leaders should understand this:

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Russian UK ambassador Kelin states that Russia has the resources to continue the war for a very long time. Most interestingly, he says that the Ukraine conflict is not a ‘war’ and that if Russia chooses to do real war, it can cut off the entire Dnieper by destroying all the bridges:

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Russian negotiator and Putin aide Medinsky, on the other hand, says Russians demand harsher action from the government, including ‘Oreshniks on Kiev’:

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Putin announces the creation of a separate branch of unmanned systems for the Russian Armed Forces:

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Lindsey Graham unveils a sanctions bill that sounds suspiciously like a suicidal economic self-immolation:

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Lastly, as of this writing a new round of missile strikes are ongoing against Kiev—here Kh-101s are seen dispersing flares before striking their targets:

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