SITREP 5/7/25: Ukraine Launches New Kursk Attempt to Spoil May 9th 'Victory Day'

Yesterday Ukrainian forces again tried to attack the Kursk region, this time in the Glushkovo area near the border town of Tetkino, further northwest from their previous entry attempts.

At 7: 00, the enemy made another attempt to attack in the area of the Novy Put farm in the direction of Glushkovo. IMR, two M113s, Bradley, Kozak went on the attack. Earlier, 2 days ago, only one T-64BV with a mine trawl was seen and destroyed in this area.

Units of the 21st mechanized and 107th TRO-one brigade of the 92nd BAT operate in this area from the AFU side. Specifically, a separate 29th battalion went on the offensive. UAV units are represented by: "Witchers", the "Wings to Hell" squad, the "S. O. Team" group, the "Chorny Strizh" company. Art. support is provided by the self-propelled guns division from the 21st brigade. As usual, the special forces of the special operations forces "West-1", noted in Kurilovka and Plekhovo in 2024, also operates.

The goal of the strike on Glushkovo and practical is to cut off our forces advancing on Basovka-Belovody with a call to Yunakovka. And a purely media goal is to ruin May 9.

Under Tetkino, an armored group of one tank and an armored vehicle went on the offensive from Iskriskovshchina and Budka to cut off Tetkino from the north. The enemy is met by our airborne forces, the armored group is on fire, but the enemy continues to bring infantry on ATVs. Suicidal attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can last for a long time - the enemy infantry on the ground does not have an operational situation and it is taken to the "nearest landing" with a simple task to hold.

The objective appears to be to “spoil Putin’s May 9th glory”, or add an edge of embarrassment to the festivities—coupled with the planned drone terror campaign across the Moscow region.

One Russian analyst’s write-up describing the strategic impulse of the operation:

About Tyotkino and the plan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The principle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes in the border area has not changed. A small section of the border is selected, geographically advantageous for invasion. In the case of Tyotkino, this is a village surrounded by Ukrainian territory on almost all sides. There are approaches, logistics are simple, fire cover can be deployed deep in one's own territory. But all this works until the first fire pocket.

He means that Tetkino juts outward into Ukrainian territory and makes it favorable for fire control from all sides:

He continues:

This happened a couple of years ago. Light groups, attacking forward posts, trying to "pick through" the front line, enter a village and show up, stick flags. The main thing is not the result, but the fact of a breakthrough. They don't come back alive, but they are not expected. The task is to distract, create noise, test the defense line.

The Russian side also draws its own conclusions. The area is zeroed in, the enemy's maneuver is read in advance, and they react to it.

Why Tyotkino? Because it is a potential bridgehead and from here there is a convenient route to Rylsk, which was not taken last year. Not the only, but the most logical option. If they enter, they will have to build on their success. And for this, reserves are needed. And here the most interesting part begins.

Developing success requires meat. Those who have gone now are not assault units, but rather expendable material. For a real expansion of the wedge, we need not groups of 20-30 people, but full-fledged battalions with cover and armor. And this is already a different scale, different losses, different risks.

The main question is what will happen next. There are two possibilities: either these attacks are a prelude to a larger attack (including with reserves from the depths, including in another area), or this is a dead end into which they are being deliberately driven in order to wear out the Russian troops.

But they still climb. They climb and drag everything they have.

The assault was fairly large-scale, compared to anything Ukraine has been able to muster of late. But Russian units report massacring the Ukrainian columns, which consisted of everything from engineering vehicles, armor, light attack scout forces, etc.:

More, showing AFU units destroyed at the dragon’s teeth passage on the border:

Ukrainian forces also attacked Russian positions in the village of Bilovodi, Sumy region, where Russian forces hold Ukrainian territory across the border as a buffer zone. Here’s an informative video from Russia’s 83rd Air Assault Brigade holding that zone, which destroyed the attempted Ukrainian incursion:

Russian paratroopers repelled a counterattack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Raiden village of Belovody, Sumy region. 6 enemy armored vehicles were destroyed: M113, HMMWV, "Stryker", Kirpi and two BTR-80

And another good video from the same 83rd showing the tactics used to stop the AFU assault. Note the revealing tactics they describe: Ukraine builds net tunnels on their supply routes—as we just discussed in the last premium article—but when Russian forces identify these tunnels, they pepper them with artillery, breaking up the netting and creating large gaps. Fiber-optic drones covered in camouflage leaves settle in these gaps and lay in ambush for Ukrainian vehicles to appear down the road. Note that the AI translator incorrectly calls them Syrian troops—meant to be Ussuriysk, the unit’s hometown.

Prisoners were captured in the new Kursk assault, here a batch of ~10 reportedly taken on the border by Akhmat forces:

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Then we turn to Russia’s own ongoing assaults, particularly around the critical Pokrovsk-Toretsk axis. Russian forces consolidated the gains around Novoolenovka, fully capturing the town as well as most of nearby Oleksandropol:

Some of these assaults were filmed, giving us another front row seat to Russian assault tactics in action. You can see positions stormed with the aid of drones, with AFU prisoners subsequently taken:

At the end you see the flag raising over Novoolenovka.

On the southwest end of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are pushing toward the Dnipropetrovsk region border. A top Ukrainian military channel wailed about Russia’s increasing progress here:

The Kotlyarivka he’s referring to is seen in the green circle below—with Novoserhiivka, which he mentions, seen just north of there, below Udachne:

Another Ukrainian analyst writes:

The enemy continues to develop successes at the junction of the Torets and Pokrov directions.

The defense along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynovka highway is collapsing both in the direction of Konstakha and in the direction of Myrnograd.

In the latter case, the defense there held out for months without enemy advances.

But due to poor interaction between those responsible for these two areas, the enemy is succeeding.

And how long this will last and when coordination will finally be fixed is now unknown.

The success of the occupiers' breakthrough was also influenced by the fact that our attention was mainly focused on the other flank of Pokrovsk. And, accordingly, our forces and means.

But I can't say that our fighters missed the accumulation of the occupying forces. It was obvious. It's just that management decisions were not made in a timely manner.

The above corroborates that Ukraine is juggling forces in the area via the ‘plug the gap’ strategy. Russia pressed on one flank of Pokrovsk, causing AFU to accumulate there, then attacked on a different axis which was consequently poorly defended.

Another longer but detailed analysis from AMK_Mapping, which gives good info on the actual unit dispositions of the Russian forces on the Toretsk front:

With these new Russian advances, it's becoming clear that Russia aims to repeat a strategy that worked incredibly well for them twice before, that being moving parallel to Ukraine's well-constructed line of defences, completely undermining its potential effects.

I have overlayed my control map with x.com/Playfra0's map of fortifications to show how this recent advance indicates that this strategy is about to be employed once more.

These maneuvers were previously conducted in two other places. The first was northwest of Avdiivka at the Vovcha River, where Russian forces broke through at Ocheretyne and Prohress to the north of Ukraine's defensive line, eliminating the possibility of a sound defence in their line along the eastern bank of the Vovcha River. The second was in and around Selydove and Kurkahove where, as a result of pushes around Krasnohorivka, the fall of Vuhledar and that whole southern Donetsk area, and that maneuver at the Vovcha River, Russia was able to move parallel to the defensive lines which were aimed at containing an assault from the south, southeast and east.

In fact, that's the problem for Ukraine here. This line is aimed at containing an offensive from Toretsk and Avdiivka, which would explain why Russia has been pushing so hard to break Ukrainian lines from Vozdyvzhenka and the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka highway. However, after months of efforts and preparatory measures, the localised breakthrough they needed has finally been achieved at Novoolenivka, while supporting advances secured various areas around Malynivka, Nova Poltavka and Yelyzavetivka.

Additionally, Russia has its own tactical strike group for this sector of the frontline, and in early 2025, completely reorganised the structure of their forces in Group of Forces "South" which directly affects the Toretsk-Kostyantynivka front. This involved three Army corps and Combined Arms Armies being united into one group, under a single command, as a part Guards south.

Currently, the 51st Combined Arms Army with forces from the 132nd, 5th and 9th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigades, each of which varies from having one battalion (e.g. the 60th separate motorised rifle battalion of the 9th brigade), to several rifle and motorised rifle regiments (e.g. the 98th and 109th separate rifle regiments). Additionally, most of the units and subdivisions of the "mobilisation reserve" of the 51st combined Arms Army (as many as 6 separate rifle regiments), operate in this area from the Siversky Donets Canal north of Toretsk, to the overpass at the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka Highway.

Further forces, this time from the 8th Combined Arms Army, were deployed from the former Kurakhove direction to this area, including the 20th and 150th Motorised Rifle Divisions, which together add up to 5 motorised rifle regiments. In fact, this isn't all. Even more forces from various units and subdivisions which aren't a formal part of either the 8th or 51st Combined Arms Armies also operate here, including the 348th Motorised Rifle Regiment from the 41st Combined Arms Army, and the battalion of the 2nd Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade Veterans from the Volunteer Assault Corps, among others.

As for how much manpower and equipment this means is concentrated in the general Toretsk-Kostyantynivka direction, Ukrainian military observer Mashovets provided a generalised estimate:

45,000-50,000 personnel

120-210 tanks

240-330 Armoured combat vehicles of all types

350-360 "Barrel" artillery, including 120mm mortars

85-90 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) of all types.

Overall, it appears Russia's goal here is to envelop Ukrainian groupings in the villages and fields west of Toretsk, collapsing the frontline north to the chain of reservoirs, therefore allowing for the next stage of the offensive on Kostyantynivka to begin.

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We’ve been covering the growing story about Russian plans on the Dnieper river across from Kherson. There have been major new developments there. A Ukrainian channel interviewed an officer who revealed Russia has prepared over 300+ boats for a river crossing in the area—both AI-dubbed and subtitled versions below:

‼️Kyiv media in panic: Russia has prepared 300 boats to transport troops across the Dnieper

▪️"The Russian Armed Forces are preparing a landing in the Kherson region - 300 enemy boats have been spotted" - complains an officer of the Ukrainian National Guard.

▪️In his opinion, Russia’s goal is to take control over the Kherson and Nikolaev regions.

RVvoenkor

Another report:

Ukrainian media and officials report that the Russia is allegedly preparing a large-scale landing operation in the Kherson region. An officer of the National Guard of Ukraine said that at least 300 Russian boats have been recorded that could be used to force the Dnieper.

📝 “Russia is preparing a landing operation. About 300 boats have already been prepared. The goal is to establish control over the Kherson and Nikolaev regions,” the Ukrainian military said.

✖️ Recently, on May 1, The Guardian, citing Ukrainian sources, wrote that the Russian army is amassing forces in four key points - in the area of ​​​​the marshy islands at the mouth of the Dnieper, near the Antonovsky bridges, as well as in the villages of Lvovo and Zmeyevka.

The listed areas correspond to those below:

The plan appears to be in line with one I recently outlined, wherein Russia would have to seize at least 4-5 independent bridgeheads to gain a potential foothold, so as to not allow AFU to concentrate all its forces on one crossing, which would immediately imperil it.

Oddly enough there was even a report of Russian units—presumably DRGs or scouts of some kind—already fighting on the right bank yesterday:

⚡️AFU related accounts reported a fight at Dneprovskoe (on the Ukr side of the Dnieper River) at night. They report that a 🇷🇺sabotage and reconnaissance group was at work.

This appears to be here just east of the Antonovsky bridge, at 46°40'46.6"N 32°47'37.1"E:

At the same time, certain AFU units in the region did release a few videos over the past few days of drone grenade drops onto Russian ‘frogmen’ who appeared to be wearing dive suits. This confirms that Russian units are getting increasingly brazen here in crossing the river, but it’s too early to tell whether it’s just distraction, a fixing strategy of tension, or the actual preliminary work of a broader operation.

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A few last noteworthy items:

Ukraine launched a major 500+ drone attack on Moscow last night, which was entirely rebuffed. It’s said it was the largest of the war, meant obviously to disrupt May 9th preparations and fill the capital with an aura of dread. Here is one of the drones being destroyed by Russian AD:

A top Ukrainian analyst bemoaned the success of Russian defenses:

"Looking at how 500+ good UAVs flew into the swamps in almost 2 days, one remembers how in the last 2-2.5 years some people said that we should "launch 500 of our Shaheeds into the swamps and blow everything up there."

As you can see, they didn't blow everything up. Because that's unrealistic. For this, hundreds of thousands of drones are probably needed. And thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles.

As you can see, the swamps have strong air defenses that are difficult to bypass.

As you can see, the swamps are learning to counter our massive UAV raids.

We used to take quality, now we take quantity. The efficiency is +/- the same, but the number of drones launched is many times greater.

This is what I already talked about - as the number of UAVs launched increases, quality is lost. Because to maintain such infrastructure, a lot of money needs to be invested in it, and not just in "long" UAVs.

A definite positive - the swamps mainly shoot down our drones with anti-aircraft missiles, depleting their reserves. If we continue in the same spirit, short-term shortages of ZKR will increasingly occur in certain areas of the swamps, which we will take full advantage of.

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Several days ago a Russian video appeared to show the destruction of a HIMARS group via Russian Iskander in Kherson oblast. Today a new HIMARS was destroyed by an FPV drone in even clearer fashion:

MLRS M142 "Himars" of the AFU was destroyed by the operators of the "Rubicon" Research Center of the Russian Armed Forces by the FPV-drone "VT-40" in the area of ​​the village. Rusin Yar, DPR. Lost Armour coordinates: (48.4792418, 37.5281443).

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Speaking of drones, Ukrainian radioelectronics expert Serhiy Beskrestnov reports Russia is using some kind of new advanced AI drone capable of swarm technology on the front:

The enemy continues to attack us with an unknown type of strike UAV.

The first use of such a UAV was recorded in Sumy in February 2025. Recently, its use has also been recorded in the East.

The UAV is equipped with a 34 Ah battery, which allows it to deliver a 3 kg warhead to a distance of up to 80 kilometers. The UAV is assembled 100% from imported components.

At first glance, the UAV does not cause much interest, but inside it is an absolutely innovative product.

The UAV is controlled via LTE mobile networks, has an inertial and satellite navigation system, but this is not the main thing.

The UAV is equipped with a powerful 14 MP camera, a JETSON video recognition and processing module. A laser rangefinder is installed at the bottom, which allows the UAV to navigate using a height map. On board is a high-speed hard drive, which is filled with information for orientation in the amount of more than 100 gigabytes. The UAV also has a large computing power.

Several times the flight of this UAV was recorded in groups of 2 to 6 boards, which does not exclude an integrated swarm solution on board.

This type of strike UAV is assessed by many experts as the future, because the drone is controlled by artificial intelligence and at the same time the drone does not depend on satellite navigation signals and its control cannot be suppressed by electronic warfare. Such a drone can potentially even record the operation of air defense and anti-aircraft drones and perform evasive maneuvers.

So far, the use of this type of UAV is not as widespread as, for example, the Lancet, but it is becoming more and more common, apparently, our enemy is now working out options for using it in combat conditions.

I would like to ask our UAV designers to pay attention to this already existing enemy solution for the development of analogues.

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Lastly, a report about new batches of Russian T-90M tanks being sent to the front just in time for Victory Day—and they were seen away by a T-34:

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