One of the interesting developments of the past few days is the continued rejection by Russian officials of the previous ceasefire ‘status quo’, with the gradual warming up by the West to Russia’s own demands.
This was highlighted by Keith Kellogg seemingly acknowledging recent “leaks” that Putin’s new memorandum would include a requirement for NATO to desist from expanding eastward to countries like Moldova, Georgia, or even beyond. Kellogg here appears to acquiesce to these demands:
He states: “We’re saying comprehensively, we can stop the expansion of NATO coming close to your border.”
On one hand, this may appear to be a good step forward by the US in finally acknowledging Russia’s security concerns, and it should be said, implicitly acknowledging that the conflict was in fact started by NATO expansion. On the other hand, put yourself in Russia’s shoes—NATO had already sung that song to Russia back in the early ‘90s, then infamously reneged.
That’s not to mention that NATO had just expanded massively in the past two years. It feels kind of disingenuous to say: “Okay, we’ll stop further expansion” after blitzing through the largest expansion in decades right onto Russia’s doorstep with the addition of Sweden and Finland. That’s like strangling a person by the neck then whispering, don’t worry, I promise not to squeeze any harder than this.
The US’ diplomatic forays were indirectly answered by this blockbuster UN speech by Russian ambassador Vasily Nebenzya:
He states unequivocally that Russia will no longer play these games, allow provocations on its border or even in its zone of interest, and is more than ready to fight for as long as necessary to eliminate the threat, as well as protect Russian people in this wider region.
That’s not to mention China's deputy UN rep Geng Shuang in the same session likewise reaffirmed the US’ responsibility for the Ukraine war:
Lavrov likewise reiterated that there will be no returning to past formulas:
State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Kartapolov issued an even more pronounced statement—that Ukraine would lose Sumy, Zaporozhye, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolayev, and Odessa if it continues to resist:
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On the front, Ukraine’s position continues to deteriorate as the Russian summer offensive ramps up. The key focus has been Sumy as Russian forces seized the initiative and made several breakthroughs in different directions.
The word is that some Ukrainian units were withdrawn from Sumy weeks ago to help shore up the crumbling Konstantinovka direction, leaving Sumy region weakened. From a Russian military channel:
"Our source reports that the General Staff and the Ops urgently transferred reserves to the Konstantinovskoye and Pokrovskoye directions in order to prevent collapses of the front in this section of the front, since the Russians have picked up too much speed in capturing populated areas, which threatens Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka with operational encirclement in the coming months.
These stabilization measures weakened the defense of the Sumy region, where the Russian Armed Forces also began to advance.
The situation, according to the military, is very complicated and could become critical and then catastrophic if Bankovaya continues to control military operations."
Now Russian forces are pouring through the border like a sieve, causing panic in Ukrainian upper circles. Most notably this was seen when Zelensky cut his German trip short yesterday, citing the Sumy emergency as reason.
Russian forces are now expanding rapidly in Sumy, with the region governor calling for new emergency evacuations of another several dozen villages:
Today Russian forces completed the capture of Oleksivka seen below, with a new salient breaking out into Konstantinovka and entering Kindrativka to the west:
Massive Russian airstrike hits Ukrainian position near Alekseevka (Oleksivka), Sumy region, using FAB-500 glide bombs. The grain storage facility was used by Kiev regime forces.
Note the video above while reading this latest report from Ukrainian military sources on the border:
"Friends, today I had the opportunity to talk with a number of competent military leaders in the Sumy direction. At the moment, the Russians are actually not carrying out any skillful and complex infantry actions. They are simply burning our positions with massive fire, adding UAVs to it. They have been preparing for this for a long time. For us to stand still in such conditions means killing our soldiers for nothing. These are not kilometers on the map, these are hundreds of someone's husbands, fathers and brothers. Do not lose heart. I believe that our military will stabilize the situation."
From the horse’s mouth itself: Russians are apparently not doing anything “skillful”, but are merely slaughtering Ukrainian troops via massive fire-bombing as seen in the video above.
It seems skill can be overrated.
To the east, Loknya was fully captured with Yunakovka now being entered, with various reports claiming Ukrainian forces have already abandoned it to flee south, which should mean its total capture is likely imminent:
Sumy direction
Units of the 106th Guards Airborne Division advanced in Yunakovka along the left bank to the N-07 road in the area of the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary , which came under our control.
About half of Yunakovka is under the control of Russian paratroopers.
Further east of there, Russian forces broke through on a new portion of the border:
Bild reports the accelerating captures:
The Russian army took 18 settlements, almost 200 km², in 7 days — Bild
Russian troops are demonstrating the most active advancement in the DPR, Kharkov and Sumy regions.
According to the publication’s experts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to stop the offensive due to an acute shortage of personnel, which cannot be eliminated in the near future.
In addition, Russia’s numerical superiority in infantry is having an increasingly noticeable impact on the situation at the front.
Russian forces also made a new breakthrough over the Kharkov region border along the Kupyansk axis:
Military analyst Yuri Podolyaka comments on the new capture of Stroivka just over the border, seen above:
Yuri Podolyaka writes about the acute shortage of infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. So the enemy actually handed over to us the western bank of the Oskol River north of Kupyansk, and our troops there took up Construction (Stroivka) work without heavy losses the other day. It became easier in the Limansky direction, and only lazy did not write about the collapse of the front near Konstantinovka.
In the media of the enemy, they write about certain "secondary areas", where the front falls. But the front of the first level - Kursk, collapsed even faster.
In fact, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have only combat guards left in the Kherson area, which should slow down our landing until the main forces arrive and regroup. Pokrovskoe direction, Toretsk - the main skeleton of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is made up of FPV calculations. The shortage of infantry, especially well-trained assault troops, in the Armed Forces of Ukraine only worsens with each passing month.
Further south Russian forces have totally captured the settlement of Ridkodub, which they had just begun storming in one of our last updates:
On the Velyka Novosilka front on the Zaporozhye border Russian forces expanded control, capturing Vesele, then Novopol and Zelene Pole to the southwest:
More information from a Russian military channel:
The "East" group of forces continues its offensive in the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The forces of the 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment have taken the village of Zelenoye Pole, from which there are just over 3 km left to the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
In fact, today Syrsky announced a supposed Russian offensive had begun in Zaporozhye. The Wagner-linked Condottiero channel reports:
Zaporizhia region "And now the most interesting thing is Operation “pants” in the south of the Ukrainian theater of military operations. In the area of the settlement Lobkovoe and to the east, the assault forces of the Russian Armed Forces have consolidated in the strongholds occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Here, as in the area of Kamenskoye, our forces are driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their positions, the enemy has fled. The fighting continues on the western outflanking of Orekhovo , in the area of Shcherbaki and Malye Shcherbaki. Attempts to stop our breakthroughs at Syrsky's headquarters failed. The transfer of reserves did not help. In this direction, the most interesting things will happen, since the exit to Orekhov and entry into the Dnepropetrovsk region to the west will give us the opportunity to hold a large group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces here, weakening Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk."
Just north of the Velyka Novosilka line, Russian forces completed capture of Troitske, likely entering Horikhove next:
And on the bottom of the map you can see just above Bogatyr, Russian forces have begun storming Oleksivka, having cleared the eastern portion of the town as the next target. Oradnoye can be seen at the bottom, which was just captured this week, with a few new areas cleared around it.
Lastly, in the Konstantinovka direction, Russian forces have finally fully collapsed the Zorya pocket. You’ll recall just recently it looked like this:
Now this, with only the yellow lines indicating the fallen area:
Here are some of the units operating in this direction on both sides (click to enlarge):
Ukrainian military analyst Myroshnykov writes of this direction:
Well, the Kostyantynivka and Mirnohrad directions are in a not very good situation, to put it mildly.
Many hoped that they would be able to contain the enemy in the ravines and ravines on the distant approaches to Konstaha.
But the thing is, the enemy has already passed almost half of them. In 1.5 months.
This proves once again that in a modern war with an enemy that does not take losses into account, the advantages of the terrain are no longer advantages.
After the summer-autumn of 2024, it was possible to finally see this.
Because the occupiers don't care how much of their flesh they'll sacrifice to move up/across reservoirs/across rivers to seriously fortified positions.
A little usual garnishment to keep Ukrainian spirits from fully deflating, I suppose?
Speaking of spirits, French Le Temps writes that Ukrainian soldiers are broken:
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Some last separate items:
Fiber-optic drones have strewn the battlefield with cables, and it’s getting worse and worse by the day:
One can imagine the hazard to wildlife. The only semi-good news is many drone teams are reportedly attempting to reclaim these expensive long-distance wires all the time in order to reuse them.
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Brutal mobilizations continue apace in Ukraine, with civilians fighting back more and more:
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Ukrainian People’s Deputy Roman Kostenko recognizes the significance of Odessa, stating that as long as Ukraine can retain access to the Black Sea, then the country can eventually reclaim all its territory:
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At the same event, retired British colonel Richard Kemp declared that the UK should help arm Ukraine with nuclear weapons:
But the real reason for this? Because he believes the UK essentially has no other capability to bring troops to Ukraine, and the fantasy of UK’s “boots on ground” there will never manifest:
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In the longer UN statement, Nebenzya can be heard explaining a new nuance to Russia’s ceasefire terms: not only must the West cease supplying weaponry, but Ukraine must cease mobilizing new troops:
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Medvedev announced that 189,000 total troops have signed up thus far this year:
Since the beginning of the year, almost 175 thousand contract servicemen have arrived in military units of the Russian Federation, and 14 thousand-in volunteer units, Dmitry Medvedev said.
Divided by only five months, this amounts to 37,800 per month. Recall Putin claimed Russia is generating 50-60k per month. Who knows, maybe Medvedev’s numbers are taken from a slightly older tally ending in April, which would bring it closer to 50k a month. Hard to say where the discrepancy lies. Either way, for those who may have continued to be skeptical about my own explainers regarding the Russian contract system and the monthly churn it invariably produces, here’s an official Russian government website for signing up:
From the site itself, you can see the choices of terms:
There are likely different terms for different unit types: regular contract, volunteer, paramilitary—for instance, Wagner famously offered six-month contracts to Storm-Z applicants, etc.
But the point is that this is proof Russia’s voluntary mobilization is not “indefinite” like Ukraine’s. Granted, there are stories of some soldiers being somehow coerced or forced into extending, but these are isolated cases with their own unique wrinkles; for instance, I’ve heard of a few ‘drunks’ or poorly behaved soldiers who were allegedly coerced into re-signing as punishment, and things of that nature. There’s also bound to be some corrupt company commanders and such who likely try to force subordinates to extend under various forms of duress—but this is not a normal practice.
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NYT visits Oklahoma, where an apparent ‘alt-history’ war between Russia and America is being reenacted:
🇺🇸⚔️ 🇷🇺"Why are Americans dressed like Russians?" - a reconstruction of the war with Russia took place in the USA .
▪️“In Oklahoma, 300 people rehearsed a reenactment of the war between NATO and Russia. Participants had exact replicas of weapons and equipment of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
▪️The war unfolds in a dystopian world where George W. Bush, having become US President for the sixth time, is gathering troops to invade Russia.
▪️ Participants were paid $250 per person to participate in the "light infantry simulation." Participants spent two days fighting with plastic bullets, blanks, night vision goggles, and explosions."
RVvoenkor
As the fictional “Fall of Salsk” began, Mason, the high school student from northern Oklahoma, met up with his unit. He had taped a white “Z” — a pro-war symbol that Russian forces wear in occupied Ukraine — on his backpack.
“We’re going to kill some NATO troops,” one cosplaying Russian soldier exclaimed as his comrades joined in.
“It’s fun to be the bad guys,” said another whose costume was so accurate that it included a Russian army belt buckle.
Another attendee drawled in a fake Russian accent, “I am from Texas Oblast,” using the term denoting administrative borders in Russia and some post-Soviet states, including Ukraine.
Well, many have long noted the Confederate flag’s resemblance to the Novorossiyan one:
Maybe the Southerners love a good rebel story, after all.
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Lastly, let us congratulate Putin for beating that frightening prognosis:
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Little by little, then all at once. PR doesn't win wars.
Why should Russia negotiate anything ? Just take it all and rub the ZOGs nose in it.